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Why does North Korea, with unstable electricity, produce top-tier hackers?
North Korea's power supply is generally unreliable, so how do they have the world's most ruthless hacker forces?
The core is not the equipment, but the national system's talent pipeline. From elementary school, they select children with top math talents, train them in isolation, with high-intensity practical combat training, aiming at cyber confrontation.
The famous Lazarus Group and Bureau 121, under the Reconnaissance General Bureau, belong to the military cyber forces, not civilian black market hackers.
Due to limited domestic network environment, they choose to disguise and lurk abroad. Disguising as outsourced programmers, headhunter phishing, infiltrating Web3 teams and exchanges. The recent Binance hack is also a typical social engineering infiltration tactic.
Why focus specifically on cryptocurrency? Sanctions have locked down traditional banking channels, on-chain assets flow globally with many laundering paths. The cost of maintaining hackers is extremely low; one successful operation can yield billions of US dollars.
This income is a very critical source of foreign exchange for them. In their eyes, the crypto industry is a national-level ATM.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 After consecutive liquidations of my positions, I finally got a good gain this time. The US midterm election results are out, with the Democrats taking an early lead. $SNDK SanDisk and other US stocks started a rollercoaster ride in pre-market trading!
Finally, my XP points are back in the green. I can only say this wave was really good; now waiting for a rise to short again!
The uncertainty brought by the US midterm elections is putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks like SanDisk. Currently, I am bearish on SanDisk's short-term trend.
If this election leads to a change in the congressional power structure, new uncertainties may arise in AI data center construction, energy regulation, and fiscal policy. One of SanDisk's biggest growth drivers is the AI industry's demand for enterprise-grade NAND flash memory.
More importantly, SanDisk's previous gains have been remarkable, and the market's growth expectations for AI storage are already very high. Even if the earnings report is good, it doesn't mean the stock price has room to keep rising. Once market risk appetite declines, funds will easily choose to take profits.
I believe the election is just a catalyst for this round of decline; the real pressure comes from high valuations, profit-taking, and uncertainty about future price trends in the storage industry. No rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first, let's see if the US tech sector can stabilize.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Capital is leaving before conviction returns. Across the three largest crypto assets, the dominant signal on 3-4 November is not price but positioning: leverage is still being unwound, and the money flow data shows no single leader emerging from the deleveraging. $BTC carries the heaviest burden. Spot net outflows over 24 hours reached $1.064 billion, while futures net outflows hit $3.098 billion — the clearest evidence that the leverage contraction has not finished. $ETH shows a local flicker oTo pour some cold water first, LIT's negative funding rate with a price increase doesn't make me rush to treat it as a "short squeeze signal." Hyperliquid perpetual public market data shows that LIT currently has the highest absolute funding rate among contracts, at -0.0064% per hour, approximately -56% annualized, with a 24-hour price increase of 5.18%. My bearish stance is on the interpretation of this arbitrage opportunity, not simply assuming the price will drop just because the rate is negative.
I have two reasons: First, a negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, but it doesn't directly prove shorts will immediately collapse; if there are hedged positions involved, the payment may not trigger a short squeeze liquidation, which is my speculation. Second, the annualized figure tends to steal the spotlight; it is just a conversion of the current rate, not a fixed return for the next year. The price has already risen, and if you only focus on "collecting funding fees" to enter, a single reverse price movement could wipe out the funding income.
Of course, bulls might also be right. If the negative funding rate continues, the price remains strong, and spot trading volume expands simultaneously, I would increase my confidence in the short squeeze logic; if the funding rate only briefly turns negative, I won't give it much weight. I prefer to break down the risks first to avoid mistaking crowded signals for cheap chips. Given this set of "negative funding rate plus price increase" data, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons, and which signal do you most want to wait for to verify?Bloomberg BTC Year-End Forecast Released: Democrats Sweeping Both Chambers May Struggle to Hold $76,000
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
Bloomberg survey provides a clear year-end range for $BTC: $76,000–$90,000.
If Republicans hold both chambers, the price could reach $90,800; a split Congress might see fluctuations around $84,100; a Democratic sweep could push it down to $76,450.
Current price is around $76,000–$77,000, almost exactly at the median of the Democratic scenario, with the market predicting a high probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
My judgment is:
The marginal impact of the election results on the year-end price has been partially priced in; the real determinant of the market going forward is not who wins Congress, but whether post-election capital flows can stabilize.
The benchmark at the end of September was still $83,600, now it has retraced nearly 8%,
with continuous net outflows from ETFs combined with lingering effects of hacks, the price itself has reached the lower edge of the survey range.
If the Democratic scenario materializes, the downside is limited (only 16% of the survey expects a drop below $60,000); if Republicans unexpectedly win, there is elasticity for a recovery toward $84,000–$90,000. However, even if the Senate majority changes hands, it is often narrow, and the progress of the CLARITY Act may still be hindered, so policy benefits will not be realized instantly.
Trading advice:
Light positions or strict stop-loss before election results are clear.
Support levels are at 76,000–76,600; if broken effectively, look for 75,000–73,700 (near the 200-day moving average).
Resistance on the rebound is first at 79,000–80,500; a stable break above this would open talks of a mid-term recovery.I saw the trending search, and my first reaction was to calculate the drawdown: if the principal drops, it requires a larger gain to recover. No matter how high the attention is, it can't be used to offset losses, and I am quite particular about this.
In the CoinGecko trending list, AudaCity ($DACITYCOIN) ranks first, with a market cap ranking of 992, down 19.4% in 24 hours; meanwhile, BTC and PENGU on the same list both dropped 0.3%. My judgment is that this list is more suitable as a risk screening entry point, not an opportunity ranking. The search might be driven by the decline attracting attention; although also on the list, price volatility varies greatly; market cap ranking cannot replace liquidity checks.
Playing it safe might miss opportunities, while chasing popularity means bearing the cost of wrong judgments. I will first look at trading depth and find the cause of volatility; if unclear, I will just observe and be more cautious. When facing such trending searches, would you play it safe and wait for clarity, or be willing to take risks and endure greater volatility?"🔥With just one sentence from Trump, ETH bulls started dreaming again, only to wake up and find the market didn't cooperate at all! Last night, news about a rate cut spread, instantly heating up market sentiment. ETH suddenly surged, reaching a high near 2308. Many thought it would finally break through this time, but after a night's sleep, the price fell back to around 2260. Bulls who chased in probably aren't laughing now.
📉 This is a typical news-driven market: the price first spikes on the news, but whether it can truly rise depends on whether follow-up capital is willing to take over. If there's only sentiment without sustained buying, the surge easily turns into a dumping ground for chasing funds.
📊 What needs to be observed now is whether the 2260 level can hold steady and whether it can reclaim 2300 afterward. Failure to hold means this rebound lacks conviction; if volume breaks through 2308, there’s a chance to further improve the short-term structure.
⚠️ Don’t rush to go long tonight just because Trump talks about a rate cut. A speech doesn’t mean the Fed has decided to cut rates, and expectations can quickly change with economic data. Do you think this is a prelude to a rebound or just another bull trap on a spike? #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $SNDK tried to break through four times but failed each time; this rebound is already over.
Yesterday, when Beichen shorted at 1108, many brothers asked, since it has risen to 1154, why not exit? Beichen didn't exit. Now at 1080.01, the answer is clear.
Why dare to hold? It's not because of bravery, but because this rebound was off from the start.
First, the volume is wrong. 7,923 lots look scary, but at the 1150 price level, that's only 8.9 million USD, while SanDisk trades over 20 million a day; this amount can't push the trend.
Second, the way it surged was wrong. 1117, 1154, 1149, 1137—four surges, each weaker than the last, with sellers every time it went up.
Third, most importantly, every time it surged, the US stock market didn't show a good face. Apple's earnings report crushed the market, tech stocks are cutting valuations, and SanDisk follows the broader market; if the market is weak, it can't bounce on its own.
So that 1154 yesterday was not an opportunity, but a trap. Those who chased in are now down 74 points.
What about now? Beichen is not chasing shorts. Only 11 points away from the previous low, chasing shorts now is like taking the last baton. Also, this drop was sharp; the last 4-hour candle dropped directly from 1137 to 1080, and such sharp drops are often followed by a rebound.
If you have a position, hold it; don't be greedy for the last bit. If you don't have a position, wait for the rebound; don't chase at 1080.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ HYPE's largest external entity, a16z-related entity, has recharged 32,862 tokens to exchanges again, transferring a total value of $15.02 million worth of $HYPE in the past five days 👀
Since 07.15, this entity has withdrawn a total of 3.75 million HYPE from major exchanges and market makers (excluding recharged amounts, only withdrawal data counted), with an average withdrawal price of $83.5
Therefore, if the recently recharged portion is sold, the expected profit is $1.08 million $JPYC
A yen-denominated stablecoin is now being used in a real-world tax-refund service for eligible visitors to Japan. This is the kind of practical use case worth following: a digital asset solving a specific payment problem. Wider adoption will depend on convenience, compliance and trust.
#JPYC #Avalanche #StablecoinsThe U.S. midterm elections are approaching, should BTC be bullish or bearish?
Many are watching the U.S. midterms, thinking that if the Democrats take Congress, Bitcoin will see a surge.
Elections can influence market sentiment, but that doesn't mean once the results are out, $BTC will definitely rise.
I'll discuss from three perspectives:
1. Short-term: Be cautious about positive news being priced in, don't rush to chase the rally.
If the Democrats ultimately take the House, or even make breakthroughs in the Senate, the market may not immediately rise.
Funds often speculate not on the result itself, but on the gap between the result and expectations. If the market has already bet on this outcome, when the news actually lands, those who positioned early might choose to take profits.
I'm more focused on whether BTC can increase volume and hold key levels after the election results are announced.
2. Medium-term: Don't equate an increase in pro-crypto lawmakers directly with favorable policies.
The U.S. crypto industry has been striving for clearer regulatory rules, but changes in congressional seats don't mean related bills will pass immediately.
Take the CLARITY Act as an example; it still involves committee reviews, bicameral coordination, and other legislative procedures. Even if Congress members are friendlier, there is still a long way from policy expectations to actual implementation.
Elections can change market expectations about regulation but cannot directly create buying pressure. What truly affects industry valuation is whether the bill makes substantive progress.
There are two more points not finished; see the next part.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 🔍Down 19.4% in 24 hours, $DACITYCOIN tops the trending search list. I'm focusing on this contrast first: Are people looking for opportunities, or checking the reasons for the drop? The source is CoinGecko's trending search list, which confirms attention, not capital inflow.
An interesting detail here is that the search action itself has no direction. Holders checking news and onlookers watching the spectacle can both drive up the heat. I prefer to see this top ranking as a risk alert signal rather than a positive sign; the drop and search volume together can't directly prove causality.
Here's my speculation: If the searches mainly come from doubts after the drop, the heat may not convert into sustained buying. Let's not jump to conclusions yet. I'll keep monitoring the trading and price performance after the heat subsides, reminding myself not to mistake the number of onlookers for the number of buyers. SUI
Current pattern: about 0.88
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $0.90–0.92
Mid-term resistance: $0.95–1.00
Strong resistance: $1.10–1.20
Support levels
Current support: $0.86
Important support: $0.80
Long-term support: $0.75
#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ $SUI A rebound with volume does not mean the recovery is complete
$ZEC has moved from 1237.73 back to around 1262, raising the low by about 2.0%.
In the past two hours, it rose 1.1%, with trading volume 183.9% higher than the previous two hours.
How this number is calculated:
The trading volume nearly doubled, indicating there are orders supporting the rebound.
But the low only rose by 2.0%, so the price hasn't moved far.
In plain language:
Having trading activity doesn't mean the recovery is strong enough.
$HYPE daily RSI is about 58.1, momentum is still above 50, and the price has retreated to around 86.
A pullback is happening, momentum hasn't weakened, both things are true simultaneously.
Drawing conclusions just from a 1.9% drop in the last 24 hours is premature.
The quality of recovery and relative strength must be separated from volume.
Volume must return first before price can catch up.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 $ZEC $HYPE Risk Warning: The following is a conditional strategy based on the public market conditions as of November 4 and does not constitute investment advice. The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the non-farm payrolls on Friday are imminent, creating a dense event window. Position management takes priority over directional judgment.
As of November 4, $BTC BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 78,000, briefly breaking above 78,000 in the early hours before retreating to around 77,000. ETH is reported around 2,265–2,276, having surged to 2,303 intraday before falling back under pressure, overall still in a weak recovery pattern. Market sentiment is in the fear zone, and directional choices require confirmation from incremental funds after event outcomes.
$BTC BTC Trading Strategy: Treat the 77,000–78,000 range as a box, do not bet before a breakout
Core Logic: BTC is currently in a rebound and repair phase after a decline. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward but the lower band is flattening, indicating short-term downward momentum is weakening, with funds supporting at low levels, but the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. The upper resistance at 78,000–78,100 combines the early morning high and the box midpoint pressure; a breakout targets 78,800–79,500. The lower support at 76,400–76,800 is a recent pullback zone; if broken, look to 76,000 and 75,600.
Strategy A: Wait and see (preferred)
• Before the midterm election results are finalized, the box midpoint (77,200–77,800) has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio; do not participate.
Strategy B: Light long position on pullback to 76,400–76,800 (aggressive short-term only)
• Entry: Enter lightly if volume increases and price stops falling or shows a long lower shadow in this area.
• Stop loss: Below 75,800.
• Target: Exit at 77,500–77,800.
Strategy C: Light short position at 78,000–78,200 (short-term only)
• Entry: Light short when a rebound to this area shows stagnation (upper shadow, volume contraction).
• Stop loss: Above 78,700.
• Target: Exit at 77,200–77,000.
Invalidation: If volume surges and price stabilizes above 79,500, the bearish logic is paused; reassess on the right side.
$ETH ETH Trading Strategy: 2,290–2,300 is a hard resistance; focus on shorting rebounds
Core Logic: ETH’s structure is weaker than BTC’s. After surging to 2,303 in the early hours, it quickly fell back, confirming 2,290–2,300 as a short-term strong resistance zone. Technically, RSI is about 36.4, indicating weakness; price is below SMA20 (2,353) and SMA50 (2,508), with moving averages in a bearish alignment. MACD histogram is converging but direction unchanged. Support below is at 2,258 as a short-term low reference; if broken, look to 2,210 (Bollinger lower band) and 2,174 (30-day low).
Strategy A: Short on rebound (main strategy)
• Entry: Light short when ETH rebounds to 2,290–2,310 and faces resistance.
• Stop loss: Above 2,330.
• Targets: First target 2,260–2,250, second target 2,210.
Strategy B: Short on breakdown (conditional trigger)
• Trigger: ETH breaks 2,250 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short on pullback to 2,250–2,260 after breakdown.
• Stop loss: Above 2,300.
• Targets: 2,210, with an extreme target of 2,174.
Long conditions: Only if volume surges and price stabilizes above 2,330–2,350, and BTC simultaneously strengthens, are the basic conditions for right-side long positions met. The current rebound remains a window for reducing positions/shorting.
Position and Risk Management Principles
1. Total position controlled within 10%. With midterm election results unfolding and Friday’s non-farm payrolls imminent, directional bets before events are essentially gambling.
2. BTC 78,700 and ETH 2,330 are bearish stop-loss lines; exit and observe if prices rise above these levels, do not hold positions.
3. The optimal strategy is to "wait." Only if BTC breaks out above 78,000 with volume and stabilizes, or ETH surges back above 2,330 with volume, is there a right-side signal. Before that, do not chase positions in the box midpoint; cash positions themselves are a form of position.Circle released its Q3 earnings today, with revenue expected to rise but EPS forecasted to drop by one-third. The core reasons are twofold:
First, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have caused the USDC reserve yield to fall from 4.1% to 3.5% and it's still declining; second, the USDC circulation has shrunk from 73.3 billion to about 70 billion, meaning both revenue engines are slowing down simultaneously. Moreover, the interest on USDC held on Coinbase goes 100% to Coinbase, with a 50/50 split outside, and the protocol just renewed the agreement unchanged until 2029. Nearly 60% of Circle's revenue is shared with channels.
Today's revenue beat expectations likely relies on a one-time $240 million income from the Arc token presale, which isn't a real strength. Buying a business that earns interest spread at a 50x forward PE, when rates are not only falling but circulation isn't recovering, cannot sustain the valuation. $ZEC outperformed $BTC by 4.22 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to confirm: is this a market rebound, or are a few contracts stealing the spotlight?
① As of now, among the top 5 by 24h trading volume, $ZEC rose +3.55%, closing at 1176; $BTC fell -0.67%. The trading volume threshold limits the observation scope, so don’t treat this leaderboard as a thermometer for the entire market.
② Leading gainers include $ETH -0.26%, $BTC -0.67%, $SOL -0.92%. $ZEC’s strength didn’t synchronize with these assets, appearing more like a local standout rather than a broad rally.
③ $HYPE -1.88%, differing from $ZEC by 5.43 percentage points. Such a large gap at both ends of the same observation window means focusing only on the top can overlook volatility at the other end.
My judgment: this is useful for identifying divergence but insufficient to confirm an overall rebound. The leaderboard provides trading volume but not changes in liquidity, so the quality of the rise is still unclear.
When looking at these gainers and losers lists, do you focus most on the percentage change, relative strength to BTC, or changes in trading volume? Let’s discuss in the comments #CryptoCommunity#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The market is focused on USDC's circulating supply hitting new highs, but what I see is a different layer of counter-consensus logic.
Stablecoin growth ≠ Circle shareholders making money.
CRCL is essentially still an interest rate business — reserve interest accounts for over 90% of revenue. No matter how large USDC's scale is, as long as the Fed's policy suppresses short-term yields, the yield per unit of reserve will be eaten up. Last quarter was a typical example: circulation surged to 76 billion+, but revenue only increased by single digits, with a 66 basis point drop in interest rates directly offsetting the increment.
So the three numbers to really watch in this earnings report are not how much USDC was issued again.
1. Can RLDC retention rate hold above 40%?
2. Is there real growth in Arc/payment/RWA-related income?
3. What guidance does management provide on the rate cut cycle?
In the short term, CRCL looks more like a money market fund disguised as crypto; good earnings don’t equal narrative fulfillment.
In the long term, only if USDC evolves from a store-of-value coin to a settlement layer will Circle deserve a network stock valuation. Otherwise, the more stablecoins grow, the more the market gets conflicted — scale benefits are eroded by interest rates.
A contrarian view: everyone bets on stablecoin adoption, but few ask "Who profits from adoption?" Licensing and compliance are tickets to the game, not printing presses. The real inflection point is when BTC stagnates, altcoins quiet down, and USDC on-chain settlement volume keeps rising — that’s the fundamental for decoupling bull and bear markets.
Positioning-wise, don’t chase highs before the earnings report; wait for expectation gaps. Good news fully priced in is easy to pull back from; bad news sell-offs might actually be golden opportunities. 昨晚大饼在7.7附近出现了4H低点形成信号，并且伴有多币种和多周期共振出现，夜间出现反弹，但早间继续回落，力度偏弱，走势也偏弱，预计会在支撑位上方再继续维持一下震荡。 这里向右运行，空间和时间都还差一些，反弹需要走出上方蓝色下降线才有希望进入反弹周期。目前看还在左侧筑底阶段，耐心观察，下方7.5支撑可能还会受到考验。 以太方面和昨天一样，继续等待下降趋势线被打破。目前看已经测试了多次，12H级别低点还在支撑当中，下方支撑位在2170附近。加密市场目前整体缺乏热点和赚钱效应，和美股走势有些趋同。 美股QQQ继续走低，目前已经来到670附近，距离前期低位660已经很近了，继续等待观望。虽然QQQ有12H低点，但显然暂时无法支撑这波趋势下跌。 商品方面，黄金XAU创了新低后止跌回升，目前在3950附近。这里需要重回4K，然后向右运行并突破蓝色下降线，才有机会进入新的上升周期。参考7—8月份日线低点后的运行行情。#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ ADA
Current status: approximately $0.188–0.191
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $0.195–0.20
Mid-term resistance: $0.21–0.22
Strong resistance: $0.25+
Support levels
Current support: $0.185–0.188
Secondary support: 0.18 (support near \0.182 mentioned by analysis institutions)
Psychological bottom: $0.17
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $ADA Good morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $BTC 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total BTC liquidation amount in 24 hours is: 70.1322 million USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 48.5135 million USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 21.6187 million USD. BTC rebound hit resistance at 78,000, can it still hold 76,500 today?
Just finished breakfast and checked the market. BTC surged to $78,000 last night but was pushed back, with bulls and bears still tugging back and forth.
The long positions set around $76,700 yesterday hit the first target smoothly with a gain of 1,100 points. The remaining positions have their stop loss moved to breakeven, watching for the second target.
Yesterday, BTC repeatedly tested the $76,500–$76,800 range without a real close below it, indicating there is still buying support below.
However, this level has been tested multiple times, so whether it can hold today is uncertain.
Currently, $77,800 is a key short-term dividing line, located in the middle of the range and close to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. Only by firmly holding here can BTC have a chance to challenge $78,600 again.
If it faces resistance and falls back again, it may test the $76,500–$76,800 support zone.
Today, I’m slightly adjusting my approach and won’t place bottom-fishing orders in advance. I’ll wait for BTC to pull back and show a clear stop-fall signal, then reclaim the key level before considering light long positions on the right side. If it breaks below $76,500 effectively and fails to recover, I’ll continue to watch.
What do you think? Can BTC hold $76,500 today or will it continue to dip to $75,000? Let’s discuss in the comments! There's something quite counterintuitive: a company earns more than expected, so its stock price should rise, but at the same time it says "we might have to pay a bigger fine."
Block is doing exactly that. In Q3, gross profit was $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, and the 2026 outlook was also raised; yet in the same financial report, it mentioned a potential settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, with an even larger amount.
My first reaction was—does that $3.2 billion really count? It does, but it's the $3.2 billion "before deducting the fine."
For those holding $BTC, this is actually a pretty typical scenario: the core business is making money, but the bills are lined up behind.XRP
Current pattern: about $1.25–1.28
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $1.30–1.35
Mid-term resistance: $1.40–1.50
Strong resistance: $1.65+
Support levels
Current support: $1.20–1.23
Secondary support: $1.10–1.15
Psychological bottom: $1.00
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $XRP #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 A blast on Qeshm Island, BTC first drops then rallies: This round of Middle East pulse, crypto is trading "inflation" not "safe haven"
US military conducts "limited strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz risk lights up red again
Brent crude nears 105, WTI stands above 96+, gold and silver spike then retreat
BTC once fell below 77,000 → pulled back near 77,400 at dawn, 24h volatility over 2%
Nearly 100,000 liquidations across the network, longs and shorts both shaken out
But this time, don't rely on the old saying "When the cannon fires, gold gains ten thousand taels."
Bitcoin is a "high volatility risk asset":
Conflict → oil price rises → inflation expectations swing → rate cut expectations delayed, US Treasury yields hold firm → risk assets first cut valuations → sentiment stabilizes then rebounds.
So what you see is:
Panic selling hits BTC/ETH first → funds realize "it's not a full-scale war" → limited recovery → but leverage is washed out. Watch three switches in 72 hours:
Whether US military confirms "no large-scale operations"
Whether Hormuz Strait actually affects tanker passage
Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000 and hold — if not, it's a downtrend continuation
Don't treat geopolitics as a one-sided positive, don't chase contracts on news-driven rallies
Limited conflict = high volatility shakeout, full escalation = liquidity safe-haven clearing
The real pricing is oil price → interest rates
Missiles fall in the Persian Gulf, liquidations happen on-chain.
This round is not a safe-haven bull market, it's a macro expectation repricing
#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ #تقرير أرباح Circle على الأبواب، هل يمكن لنمو العملات المستقرة أن يحقق عوائد؟ $RAVE Overall bearish trend, retail investors are all bullish though, be cautious when bottom-fishing, continue holding
OKX RAVE Long-Short Ratio (Core Structure)
Retail investors: ↑ 3.60 → Extremely bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.74 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.72 → Extremely bearish
Main force inclination: Extremely bearish
The structure shows a classic divergence of “extremely bullish in number of holders, extremely bearish in positions, and extremely bearish in main force.”
Retail sentiment is extremely bullish, the number of large holders is also bullish, but actual positions and main force are extremely bearish. This structure often leads to a "bull trap followed by a dump" or a high-level pullback.
Network-wide comparison
Binance account long-short ratio: 4.04 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders number: 4.45 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders' positions: 1.94 (bullish)
Upcoming unlocks:
There is a small-scale unlock soon (about 4.4M), the next larger batch is in December/January (around 21M level).
Overall unlock progress is about 23–27%, with continuous linear release afterward.
Project progress: Ecosystem-related, no obvious major negative or positive news.
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A payment company's earnings report is turning into a handbook for the crypto market.
Block's Q3 gross profit reached $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, while also raising its 2026 performance outlook. For a company that relies on payments and consumer wallets, this scale of quarterly gross profit indicates expanding cash flow and user activity.
Why should people in crypto care? Block is one of the few publicly listed companies that has truly made $BTC a product entry point: selling hardware wallets, enabling self-custody, and allowing consumers to buy and sell Bitcoin directly within the app. The gross profit beating expectations, in a sense, signals that more people are willing to pay to hold and use cryptocurrencies. This kind of demand is more dispersed and sticky compared to ETFs, which are concentrated in institutional hands. The logic for $ETH and $SOL is different, but the temperature is from the same river.
There is a second easily overlooked point in the earnings report: the company mentioned a potential settlement proposal from the U.S. Department of Justice involving a larger amount. This money has not yet been realized. In other words, the better-than-expected gross profit and the raised guidance were given before deducting this.
So my judgment is: this earnings report is a mildly positive signal for crypto, representing fundamental confirmation rather than market fuel. It proves that the payment sector is still active, while reminding you that regulatory costs still hang over such companies.
One point worth considering: if the crypto business is already strong enough to drive overall gross profit, will the regulatory price for it also be recalculated based on this new scale?When I saw this message, what popped into my mind wasn't "which small coin is about to take off," but rather "the street is bustling, but which shop can really keep people?" This is somewhat interesting, but I'm not very willing to directly count the chain's busyness as a positive for small coins. 👀
Blockworks Research data shows that Solana successfully processed 3.38 billion transactions in October, an 81% year-over-year increase, hitting a new high for four consecutive months. The statistics exclude validator votes and failed transactions. This metric excludes two types of interference but still cannot be used to determine capital flow.
My judgment is that this is more beneficial for ecological applications to gain attention, rather than boosting all small coins. The increase in successful transactions can support discussions about on-chain usage demand; however, the number of tradable transactions is not new capital and does not indicate that ordinary users are willing to continuously pay for any particular application.
The opportunity in highly volatile assets lies in the possible redistribution of attention; the risk is packaging oneself with ecological hype. I will first look at which scenarios the activity comes from, then see if the related applications have sustained usage and liquidity support. If the hype only stays at the chain-level data, then the sentiment spread for small coins may run faster than the actual benefits—that's my speculation.
What I want to distinguish next is "usage heat" versus "speculation heat." Around this new transaction volume high, are people recently paying attention to Solana's payment and trading applications, or the blockchain gaming track? What signals would you look at to judge that it's not just a momentary buzz?ETH is still grinding down today, the rebound is weak, 2280 is pressing down, 2250 barely holding, a typical bear taking a breather.
Intel is even worse, dropping much more sharply than ETH, starting with over 5%, faith shattered after the earnings guidance bomb, the AI narrative turning from "infinite spending" to "bill due".
Both sides actually share one logic: risk appetite has collapsed. Crypto is sneezing in sync with Nasdaq; when tech stocks shiver, altcoins kneel first.
Now is not the time to guess the bottom, but to see who stands first. ETH eyes 2250, Intel better not catch the flying knife—the blade hasn't landed yet.Today Yushu surged 18%, and my long-short strategy also made a little profit. How did I operate? (Feeding tutorial) Just like going long Tesla and short SpaceX, I go long Yushu while simultaneously shorting Changxin Storage with an equal amount. The reasons are as follows: - As analyzed before, Yushu and Changxin have similar circulating ratios, with no new circulating supply in the short term. However, bearish sentiment is severe; since listing, it has dropped 60%, with nowhere left to fall. - 🔥Today's liquidation data set shows that the most dangerous signal is not how much the price has dropped, but that the bulls are paying the price in concentration! $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 4th, the total network liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $396 million, with long liquidations at $322 million, accounting for 81.3%, and short liquidations only $73.92 million. Bulls remain the main liquidated party; during the rebound, some shorts were squeezed, so neither side truly holds the initiative.
🟠BTC liquidations reached $107 million, with longs accounting for 82%. Open interest dropped to $44.5 billion, the long-short ratio rose to 2.74, and retail bullish sentiment remains high; however, Hyperliquid whales have a net short position of about $887 million, showing a clear divergence in capital flow. The short-term key range is 78724–79012; only if it holds and positions recover should strength be considered; breaking below means continuing weak oscillation.
🔵ETH liquidations were $59.9 million, with longs at 66%, open interest around $22 billion, and daily bearish alignment still unimproved. 2193 is a risk observation level; near 2250 just experienced a bull washout, so it's not suitable to rush to bottom-fish.
🟣SOL liquidations were $26.9 million, with longs at 88%, accounts with longs at 78.6%, but active buying only 56.6%, total open interest down over 10%, and funding rates turned negative. 94.35 is the defense level, 96.04 is the strength observation level.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC saw nearly 200 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours
Long position leverage was almost wiped out in one go
But looking at the on-chain data
Whales quietly accumulated 3.03 million coins this month
Setting the strongest accumulation record since February
While you're getting liquidated and cut losses from stop-outs
The main players are vacuuming up bloodied chips below
The heavy losses and negative news are dumped
Yet the market is full of rigid buying to catch the dip
After the chip turnover, this position simply can't fall
#BTC
$BTC
👇$ETH on Binance, the long-short ratio for $ETH has surged to 2.67, with 70% of positions stubbornly holding long.
The order book buy orders are extremely weak, with a cluster of long liquidation orders around $2284.
The more retail investors rush to bottom-fish with leverage, the more liquidity they provide to the whales.
With this chip distribution, a downward spike and targeted liquidation is just a matter of time.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$BTC odds don't lie, the Republicans lose big, the Democrats win big. Actually, elections boil down to two major financial groups balancing each other. This time, the Jewish financial group wins big over the Anglo-Saxon group. The Democrats are backed by the Jewish financial group, the Republicans by the Anglo-Saxon group. Next, it depends on when the Democrats start investigating Musk, and whether they really find anything. Just to mention here, if BTC can't hold the last line at 74800-75000, it will completely collapse. Now the whole market is watching BTC's mood, just seeing how those at 76500-77500 plan to borrow money to cover their positions and where that will lead.#US midterm elections are approaching, which results are worth paying attention to?
After the midterm elections, there might be strikes against Iran, but then Trump indicated a pause on striking Iran. What impact do the midterm elections have on crypto?
If one chamber or both chambers are lost, it could mean a continuation of regulatory deadlock, with $BTC being more resilient and $ETH more sensitive.
The mainstream consensus on the midterm election expectations is more about a slim majority rather than a decisive majority 🤔
From a regulatory perspective, the already effective GENIUS Act will not be repealed by the new Congress, while the CLARITY Act was already defeated in the Senate procedural vote before the election (49:50), making its passage in 2026 nearly impossible.
If the Democrats take one or both chambers, what they truly gain are hearing rights, subpoena power, and investigative authority, not the votes to rewrite laws.
The presidential veto remains a firewall. As for the "Democrats achieving a two-thirds majority to override a veto," the probability in this election is very low. A more likely scenario is continued legislative gridlock, with regulatory friction shifting from "Congressional legislation" to "committee investigations + administrative enforcement."
The impact on BTC is limited; its pricing anchor is macro liquidity, dollar credit, and institutional allocation. The distribution of congressional seats does not directly alter these variables. Even if the Democrats sweep, BTC remains the most resilient crypto asset.
However, for ETH, ETH and DeFi are more deeply tied to market structure legislation, securities classification, and compliance pathways. The death of the CLARITY Act combined with intensified Democratic scrutiny will suppress ETH's valuation elasticity. Pay attention to the risks The Democratic Party has a higher probability of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains uncertain. JPMorgan's scenario probabilities are: Democrats sweep both chambers 66%, split Congress 26%, Republicans hold both chambers only 7%.
Currently, votes are being counted. The Democrats have secured key Senate seats in Georgia and Virginia, but the final Senate outcome depends on battlegrounds like North Carolina, Ohio, and Michigan.
Impact of different outcomes on the market
Democrats sweeping 66%: short-term pressure on US stocks, possible tightening of AI regulation, long-term US bonds benefit
Split Congress 26%: legislative deadlock, market neutral bias, US bond yields decline
Republicans holding both chambers 7%: most favorable for US stocks, S&P may rise 1%-1.25%
Key observation points $OKB
AI/Tech stocks: If Democrats take full control, data center regulation and AI expansion may be restricted, causing short-term disruption in tech stocks.
Cryptocurrency: The CLARITY Act faces increased difficulty advancing, but the GENIUS stablecoin bill has been enacted, so regulatory direction will not reverse.
US bonds: With a divided government or Democratic sweep, fiscal expansion is limited, and long-term yields are very likely to decline.
Gold: Political uncertainty + fiscal deadlock, gold still has medium-term support. $XAU
My judgment
Historically, 6-12 months after midterm elections, both US stocks and Bitcoin have a good rebound window. But in the short term, don't rush to go all in; vote counting results, key seats, and the Iran situation are three variables still present, so volatility will not disappear immediately. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 摩根士丹利最近正式接入了DTCC（美国证券存托与清算公司）的代币化服务，成了首批吃螃蟹的银行之一。这事儿是真的，10月28日DTCC的DTS服务刚上线，大摩就位列其中。 先看规模和数据。这次首批接入的机构一共20家，除了大摩，还有摩根大通、美银、花旗这些华尔街巨头。初期能代币化的资产有34种合格证券，主要是部分罗素1000大盘股、主流ETF和美债，背后代表的市场总价值大概在30万亿美元。 这玩意儿怎么运作的？说白了，它不是让你去发个新币去炒。它是在DTC原有的托管体系里，搞了一个“1:1的数字孪生”。也就是你手里有真股票在DTC托管着，系统对应给你生成一个代币。这代币背后有真实的证券背书，股息、投票权这些股东权益一样不少，不是凭空捏造的合成资产。 这么搞图啥？主要是为了抵押品管理和结算效率。有了这个代币，机构就能在合规钱包里进行24小时全天候的转移，不用管美股开不开盘。如果是正常交易时间内的转换，DTCC的目标是15分钟内搞定。 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4Fear and Greed Index is only 37, the aftermath of Binance's $6.3 billion hack is still unsettled, mainstream coins are collectively turning red—but opportunities often hide in panic.
BTC ($76,531, -1.36%): $76,000 is the average cost line for short-term holders, and the 200-day moving average at $73,169 forms the long-term trend watershed. ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, but leverage clearing is nearing its end, and the mid-to-long-term technical outlook remains optimistic.
ETH ($2,252, -1.89%): October spot ETFs recorded a record net outflow of $1.61 billion, but whales are accumulating nearly $30 million against the trend. RSI has dropped to 29.78 entering the oversold zone, and $2,200 is a critical battleground between bulls and bears.
SOL ($91.32, -2.45%): After breaking the key support at $96, $90-91 has become the last line of defense. RSI around 26-31 indicates severe overselling, short-covering could trigger a technical rebound at any time, but four consecutive weeks of ETF outflows show weakening institutional demand.
The market is in a "sentiment low + technical oversold" recovery window; stay clear-headed amid the panic.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ "Created three months ago," this label is what I care about most. The material says that this wallet withdrew PONS and ETH from OKX in the past twelve hours. Such news is easily read as "a new big player entering the market," but on the other hand, I think its evidential strength for new funds is overestimated.
One reason is that the wallet's age does not equal the holder's experience. My guess is that if an old user just changed the receiving address, then a wallet that looks very new on-chain could still be backed by old funds and cannot be directly counted as new demand.
Another reason is that withdrawal records can show assets leaving the platform but do not explain when they were bought. Treating withdrawals as just-occurred buying activity misses a step. For news like $PONS, I separate "large transfers" from "new demand" to avoid being misled by the three words "new wallet."#CircleQ3USDCGrowth USDC circulation: Grew 19% year-over-year to $73.3 billion in Q2 2026.
On-chain transaction volume: Increased 151%.
Business opportunity: More adoption in international payments, settlements and financial services.
Future potential: Increased USDC usage could support Circle's long-term revenue growth. $BTC dropped from 87000 to a low of 76300,
currently fluctuating between 77,000 and 78,000$, selling pressure has temporarily eased, but the reversal is not yet confirmed.
There are three signals worth paying attention to:
▫️Technical: Support at 76300-76500 is holding for now. In the short term, watch 78100; only if volume increases and it holds above this level can we look at resistance at 79600-80600. The rebound lacks volume, and the daily chart's weak structure remains unchanged.
▫️Macro: The US tech sector is recovering, improving risk appetite, but the dollar and US bond yields remain strong, so liquidity has not turned loose.
▫️Capital: Panic sentiment has been digested, but that doesn't mean institutions have returned. Focus on spot ETF capital flows; sustained institutional buying is a necessary condition for strength.
Personal view: Short-term oscillation and recovery, maintain caution in the medium term.
Key levels:
✅78100: Short-term breakout confirmation
⚠️79600-80600: Strong resistance zone for the rebound
🛡️76300: Important support; breaking below returns to weakness
Personal strategy: Don't panic sell, don't chase longs on green candles.
Consider the right side only after volume breaks above 78100; if the rebound is weak, wait for a better opportunity.
What the market lacks now is not good news, but real incremental capital.
Whether this is a bear market rebound or the start of a new trend, let the market prove it. $PEPE $SOL 比特币（$BTC）本轮回调走出分化行情，价格回落的同时空头反而承受更多清算。$BTC 当前接近 76,909，24 小时下跌 1.95%，此前冲高至 78,831 后回落至 76,621 低点。近段时间清算数据显示空头清算规模高于多头，这说明本轮下跌更偏向仓位重置，并非一轮强势抛压。比特币买卖比率有所抬升，未平仓合约维持在较高水平，下跌过程中抄底资金和拥挤多头同时存在，后续清算方向会给出进一步信号。 以太坊（$ETH）走势与之相反，压力集中在多头一侧。$ETH 报价 2,259.62，24 小时跌幅 1.30%，低点 2,237.42 是关键支撑位置，这段时间多头清算量明显大于空头，杠杆买家成为主要承压群体。 SOL（$SOL）跌幅在三者里最深，下跌2.61%至92.42，支撑位90.87值得重点留意，它的买卖比率几乎没有变动，多头清算同样高于空头。 $BTC、$ETH、$SOL 的资金费率全部维持正值，意味着买方仍在支付持仓成本。盘面暗藏矛盾：比特币空头被挤压，但整体杠杆还是多头占优。如果下一轮清算浪潮转向 ETH 和 SOL 的多头，那么比特币这次空轧行情，可能只是空头回补带来A friend told me that historically, after the midterm elections, $BTC always declines. This period is not suitable for leveraging or trading contracts. Well, let's look at the price performance of $BTC in November of 2014, 2018, and 2022. 2014: First, looking at 2014, in Figure 1, you can see that the 200-day moving average on the daily chart is still downward, and the price is still completely suppressed by the 200-day moving average. Moreover, the price hasn't even broken through the downtrend$SUI SUI is clearly like scooping water out of a leaking boat with a small spoon.
The selling pressure from monthly unlocks is more than ten times the foundation's total annual buyback volume.
With such an absurd supply gap, the market simply can't hold.
Now the price is being pressed down around 0.87, steadily declining, and even the rebound highs are being pushed lower.
But looking at the market, the 4-hour long-short ratio is still at 2.8.
Retail investors stubbornly hold on against the trend here every day, and all the newly unlocked tokens are flowing to the bulls.
As long as the bulls don't die, this slow boil frog trend shows no end in sight.
#SUI
$SUI
👇一位交易者公开了自己在87000、84000、80000、78500连续做空$BTC的布局，同时宣告将在72888反手做多。这个“空翻多”的转折点不是随意画的线，而是一条被三重逻辑锁定的防线。 先看技术面。72888并非普通支撑，而是深度下跌后筹码高度密集的区域。$BTC从80000一线被持续压制下行，若真被推到72000附近，意味着恐慌盘已被彻底清算，多头杠杆几乎被扫光。在这种“带血”的位置接多，防守空间极窄，盈亏比被拉到极致——这恰恰是逆向交易者最想要的赔率结构。 再看资金面的底牌。Strategy的整体持仓成本约75446美元，一旦价格跌到72888，等于击穿了全球最大多头机构的防线。护盘资金大概率会用现货死守这片深水区，不会让价格轻易崩塌。叠加连续重挫后短周期指标严重超卖，报复性反弹的条件正在积聚。 入场方案已经写死：72888直接挂多，若继续下探72500可补仓；止损严格设在71500下方，一旦有效跌破即意味着大结构彻底瓦解，认输离场、绝不扛单。第一目标74500，站稳后看向75500甚至76800。到74500先落袋大部分利润，剩余仓位用移动止损往上推。 没到位置就持币观望昨晚一直在刷
收盘还行
纳指+0.83%，科技股止了跌。盘后一个小时全翻了
Ossoff保住乔治亚，Cooper翻了北卡。Kalshi上众院97%、参院90%。纳指期货直接掉了1.6%。
众院翻蓝选前就定了价。市场昨晚真正在消化的是参院
两院同时在手，立法通道全打开了。数据中心限制、AI监管、加税，以前卡在参院的东西，现在有机会走完流程。
AMD财报明明炸了，盘后拉双位数，结果被大盘按回去只剩4%
整个AI这条线的政策预期，一个小时里重写了一遍。
BTC掉到77000以下。2024大选之后 crypto 吃的共和党友好预期，现在要打折了。
我的判断：选举夜盘后波动，十次有七八次是过度反应。票还在数。
但这次有一个变量跟往年不一样——AI
以前翻盘影响的是传统行业，这次直接打到了过去两年最拥挤的那条线上。
如果今天确认两院都翻蓝，科技股要重新定价一轮政策风险。基本面没坏。但以前默认会续的红利，可能续不了了。
昨晚果然没睡好。Daily report is here, why is it continuously declining😭