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When the price falls back intertwined with panic sentiment, on-chain data offers another perspective.
Whether it's mid-sized holders increasing their positions, whales accumulating net holdings again, or large withdrawals, all indicate that significant funds are collecting chips against the trend, providing some support for the current price range.
However, it should also be noted that on-chain accumulation does not equal an immediate reversal; the moves of large funds are often forward-looking, and they also need time to endure macro uncertainties.
The current situation is that funds are flowing beneath the surface, but the price is still under pressure.
There is no need to be blindly pessimistic, nor rush to go all-in to bottom fish. Pay attention to the continuity of whale accumulation, and wait for a right-side stabilization signal before making trades that follow the trend.Can a daily fee of around $2M support the value of $HYPE?
To judge how much a token is worth, first see if it can make money on its own. HYPE's daily fees in the past month have ranged roughly between $1.7 million and $3.3 million. Taking a midpoint, the annualized figure approaches $900 million.
Putting this number alongside the $17.53 billion circulating market cap, the ratio is about 5 HYPE tokens per one cash register running every day. So when debating whether it is a cash flow type or expectation type, my view is: fundamentally it is cash flow, but the price still includes expectations. Cash flow determines where it bottoms out and finds buyers; expectations determine how high it can go.
When market sentiment is poor, fee income acts as the anchor for valuation; when sentiment is good, the market prices in growth stories as a premium.
Don't just focus on the K-line for $HYPE; the daily fee income of around $2 million is what sets it apart from pure thematic tokens. The business is still operating, so the valuation has solid grounds for negotiation.Licensed banks in the US have started directly competing with stablecoins for "idle money": SoFi launched SoFi Earn (SOFIE) on Thursday, a tokenized deposit where 1 SOFIE corresponds to a $1 deposit in SoFi Bank, with an annualized yield of 4.40% and FDIC deposit insurance, capped at $250,000 per individual.
When buying crypto, you can exchange 1:1 into their own stablecoin SoFiUSD, which can be used to buy crypto directly or transferred on-chain 24/7, but the portion exchanged out is no longer protected by deposit insurance.
The background is that the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying interest, so banks are using tokenized deposits to fill this gap; meanwhile, the OCC's final rule does not outright ban third parties from giving rewards to stablecoins, and the American Bankers Association has publicly expressed dissatisfaction.
The market is average today, Binance $BTC around 81,800, down 0.75% in 24h, $ETH at 2,406 down 1.1%.
My view is that this kind of product won't affect coin prices in the short term, but the "money waiting to buy crypto earning interest" pie will be directly contested between banks and stablecoins. To be honest, I used to easily take "several people shorting together" as a source of confidence, thinking that having others on the same path would make me feel more secure. Later, I realized that having the same direction doesn't mean the risks are the same; others' positions may not hold up, and my own emotions might not either.
This time, two wallets opened short positions on $ETH in the same direction within a short period, totaling 92.0204 coins, with a nominal value of about $221,500. One position used 7x leverage, the other 25x. Right now, it's just opening positions; the outcome is not yet decided.
What concerns me more is that although the two positions seem aligned, the pressure they bear differs significantly. The 25x position has a nominal value of about $136,600, larger than the 7x one; higher leverage combined with a larger scale concentrates the risk. Roughly calculated, assuming margin remains unchanged and ignoring fees, a roughly 4% adverse move at 25x leverage is enough to wipe out the initial margin, and actual forced liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin and other factors. Having two wallets is not enough to prove that the short position judgment is more reliable.
Now I set two rules for myself: first, determine the loss I can bear, then calculate the position size backward from the stop-loss distance, not using leverage as a budget; second, write clear exit conditions before placing an order and execute them when triggered, without loosening them just because others are going in the same direction.
Have you ever relaxed your stop-loss because "others are doing it together"? Would you be willing to share a position rule you later stuck to?⬆️✴️$BTC
Retail investors are currently almost inactive in BTC futures (red dots = retail trades). This is usually not observed at market tops. Historically bullishGold is losing ground as traders react to developments in U.S. equity markets. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is down by -2.5% as Meta announced that it would boost spending plans.
Rising spending from AI leaders will likely lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, which is bearish for gold markets. In addition, some traders may need additional liquidity at a time of a strong pullback in the equity markets. They could be forced to raise money elsewhere, which puts pressure on gold marketLast night, Trump's tough stance on Iran directly pushed down the US stock market. As risk appetite shrank, high Beta assets like crypto were the first to be sold off. BTC slid from 84435 all the way down to 81225, losing 82,000 and 81,500 levels consecutively; ETH broke 2400, reporting 2381; HYPE was the worst hit, dropping from 81.14 to 77.05, down about 4% in 24 hours and 5.19% over seven days.
What’s more troublesome is the 81500 level. That is the average holding cost for the spot ETF; if BTC falls below it, it means those who entered via ETF this year are collectively at a floating loss, which will bring redemption pressure later. Hashrate also hit a seven-month high, pushing miner costs up, so selling pressure won’t ease.
My view: BTC’s 80989 is the first support; if lost, look to 80000. Above, 83000 to 84400 is all trapped positions. The weekly gains have basically been fully given back, with most of the bloodshed happening in the past two days. A brief break below the ETF cost line is acceptable, but if it can’t recover, trouble follows. ETH’s next support is 2350; if broken, look to 2300. HYPE’s 76.8 is the lifeline; losing it could accelerate the decline.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for US stocks to stop falling and BTC to reclaim 81500 before considering. Without these two, any rebound just provides liquidity to the shorts. Can 80000 hold this week?
$BTC $HYPE $ETH
#ETF单日流出超6亿美元，BTC价格能否企稳？ $HYPE
Is an increase in platform transactions a certain positive sign when the market is falling?
In this morning's spot snapshot, HYPE's 24-hour price change was -4.08%, ranging from 76.64 to 80.903 USDT.
Price pullbacks do not directly equate to a decline in platform revenue; increased volatility may even bring more trading activity. However, if users incur losses and retention drops, short-term transaction volume might come at the expense of overdrawing future demand.
It is necessary to simultaneously verify fee income and user retention. If there is only a revenue peak caused by a single volatility event, it should not be annualized as normal; sustained share improvement is what supports a higher premium. Three days ago, the entire network was shouting about the revival of privacy coins, but today the same sector shows three different outcomes.
$ZEC 1219.48, -8.70%, dropped from 1335.78 all the way down to 1187.52. More importantly, its open interest contracts fell by 6.99% in one day, dropping faster than the price, indicating it’s not someone dumping but leverage unwinding itself.
$XMR 602.41 (-2.98%), but today’s intraday high was 660.75 and low was 585.65, with a volatility exceeding 12%. This morning, it was still one of the only five gainers in the CoinDesk 100.
$DASH 54.08, +3.62%, up 9.91% over the week. Why the divergence? All three coins share the same narrative, but their capital structures are completely different. XMR has risen about 19% this month, with futures positions once exceeding $300 million this week, approaching the January record. It’s heavily leveraged, so any slight disturbance hits it first.
ZEC was the focus yesterday, but today it’s deleveraging. DASH is the most interesting: while rising, its funding rate was -0.0142%, meaning shorts are paying longs interest—typical shorts haven’t given up yet. Don’t overlook liquidity. DASH’s daily volume is only $770,000, ZEC’s is $20.39 million, and BTC’s is $877 million—on a completely different scale. In such a market, when prices rise you think you’re a genius, but when they fall you find the exit is just a narrow crack.Who exactly is stirring up the storm? US stocks crash, ETFs run away, bulls burying themselves
Taking a glance at the market, BTC is gasping around 81,300, ETH is lying flat at 2,385, down 3% to 4% in 24 hours. Who exactly is stirring up the storm? The answer is more than one and their roles are quite clear.
The first to flip the table is US stocks. Overnight, the Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 7%, Meta caused cash flow panic due to AI burning money, and Huang Renxun’s remark "AI financing supply is tight" directly crashed tech stocks. Crypto and Nasdaq are now grasshoppers on the same rope; when US stocks sneeze, BTC immediately goes into ICU $BTC
The second to step on the gas is ETFs. The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in one day, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone running off with $254 million; Ethereum ETFs followed with $110 million outflow, BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $75.5 million. Institutions are not "watching" but voting with their feet. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $475 million, with long positions liquidated at $435 million and shorts only a pitiful $40 million plus. $ETH
The storm is not stirred by a single "whale," but a trio of US stocks igniting, ETFs pulling fuel, and bulls self-immolating. BTC eyes 81,000; if broken, next stop is 80,000; ETH watches 2,380; if it doesn’t hold, then 2,350. Don’t rush to be a hero before the FOMC, wait for the wind to settle before getting on board #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ In the past 24 hours, a whale spent $7.22 million to acquire a bunch of small and mid-cap tokens
$LIT, $ENA, and $ONDO are his main targets for increasing positions
He bought about 6.6 million LIT, approximately 6.61 million ENA, and over a million ONDO tokens
Currently, in this complex and volatile market environment with external tensions, altcoins have generally been retracing, but this whale specifically chose this time to scoop up tokens
LIT just had its Q3 investor call the day before, with Q3 trading volume at $137.6 billion, open interest contracts exceeding 1.64 billion, nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter, and total revenue of $855 million. After the call, the token surged over 7%
ENA and ONDO are projects with actual business operations in their respective sectors, not just pure concepts
So he might not be purely gambling but genuinely optimistic about these tokens, although their prices have been dragged down by the overall market
A whale’s $7.22 million might not make waves in this market, but putting out this much money at this time could really mean he sees the future
#WhaleAltcoins Where is the logic? Gold has been rising continuously for the past four years despite all the troubles caused worldwide by politicians and central banks, and now central banks are starting to buy gold extremely aggressively—four times more than usual? What are these central banks doing in 2022-2023?! Who is this information in the media for? Retail investors, so they throw everything away and rush to buy gold at $4,000/ounce?! * $BTC $XAU High FDV with low circulation, how much longer can the VC coin "pass the parcel" game last?
New coins launching nowadays seem to fall into a strange cycle: starting with tens of billions in FDV (fully diluted valuation), but with circulation less than 10%.
Many retail investors focus on the circulating market cap of tens of millions, thinking they've bought a bargain. But have you considered the 90% of tokens that are still locked? This means you’re not really investing; you’re providing liquidity for early VCs and project teams. They acquire tokens at extremely low cost, and once the one-year lock-up period ends, retail investors in the secondary market are the only ones left holding the bag.
In this space, the truly retail-friendly projects are the "outliers" that dare to have full circulation or low FDV.
For example, $HYPE has no VC burden, launches with full circulation, and relies on real transaction fees to gradually push the price up. Then there’s $AERO, which, although inflationary, distributes 100% of its revenue to stakers instead of stuffing VC pockets.
💡 Conclusion:
Don’t be fooled by the illusion of "low valuation."
High FDV tokens without real revenue support are essentially a game of pass the parcel. Buying new coins with VC tokens hanging over your head is like paying for a ticket that will inevitably be forcibly reclaimed. BTC at $81,700, are you still holding on?
Three days ago, ETFs poured in $1 billion wildly, everyone shouted "bull market is back quickly," but yesterday alone $635 million fled, longs liquidated $450 million, Nasdaq plunged 2.6%—crashing from 84.5k down to 81.7k. Is this a bull market pullback to pick up buyers, or an early arrival of a bear market?
First glance: it dropped, but didn’t crash.
BTC fell from the October 21 high of 84.5k-85k, dropped over 3% on October 22, bottoming near 80,800, now oscillating around 81,700. The Fear & Greed Index fell straight from “Greed” to a neutral 50. $400-450 million liquidated in 24 hours, all longs. Volume expanded on down days—selling pressure is real, not a fakeout.
First thing: ETFs fed you a candy for three days, then took the candy factory away in one day.
From October 19-21, spot BTC ETFs had net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling over $1 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the buying. The market cheered: “Institutions are back!”
Then on October 22, a net outflow of $635.6 million in one day. IBIT outflowed $254 million, FBTC $217 million. What was accumulated in three days mostly fled in one.
In plain terms:
Institutions are not "long-term holders," they are "opportunistic eaters." Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, AI capital expenditure worries fermented, risk appetite shrank, ETFs immediately turned sour.
You thought institutions were carrying your sedan chair, but they were just passing by, dismantling your chair for firewood.
Second thing: Macro is the real knife, FOMC is just the handle.
September CPI year-over-year 3.7%, core 2.6%, energy prices the main driver. High oil prices plus geopolitical tension bring back the "higher for longer" narrative.
10-year US Treasury yield over 5.1%, real dollar rates suffocating risk assets. Fed rates at 3.75%-4.00%, just hiked 25bps in September, FOMC on October 27-28 likely to hold steady—but the market fears not the pause, but a possible cut in December.
Nasdaq fell 2.6% Thursday, Asian markets followed. BTC highly correlated with tech stocks, tech stocks cut valuations, BTC follows.
BTC is no longer "digital gold," it’s a "high Beta tech stock." When US stocks sneeze, BTC catches a fever.
Bull markets die from rate hikes, not bad news. Bad news can be digested; as long as the rate hike cycle isn’t over, rebounds are just escape windows.
Third thing: Leverage cleanup is good, but the bottom is not confirmed yet.
$450 million liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs. Funding rates still positive but have fallen from highs—crowding is easing, which is good. Liquidations aren’t a disaster, they’re the market "detoxing."
On-chain data: circulating supply 20.1M BTC, market cap 1.6 trillion, dominance over 59%. ETF cumulative net inflows remain strongly positive historically, long-term institutional allocation logic intact. Swiss spot BTC ETF approved (trading in November), Saylor still bullish long-term.
But short-term pricing power is not in their hands.
Short-term pricing power lies with: Nasdaq, oil prices, daily ETF flows, FOMC dot plot.
Long-term narrative is faith, short-term price is sentiment. If you hold on with faith, sentiment will bury you.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
81,000-81,700 is a dense volume support zone, buy orders accumulated
Leverage crowding eased after liquidations, rebound resistance reduced
ETF cumulative net inflows still positive, long-term logic intact
Swiss ETF approved, new catalyst in November
On the other side:
ETF single-day outflow $635 million, institutions retreating short-term
Nasdaq down 2.6%, risk appetite shrinking
CPI 3.7%, December rate hike expectations looming
84k-85k previous highs exert heavy resistance, rebound space compressed
Key levels
Resistance above: 82,000-82,500 (first barrier) → 84,000-84,500 (previous high) → 85,000 (strong resistance)
Support below: 80,800-81,000 (recent low) → 80,000 (psychological level) → 78,000-79,000 (breakdown target)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for volume expansion and stabilization near 81,000, then lightly buy back above 82,000, stop loss below 80,000, target 84k-85k.
If it breaks below 81,000 effectively and closes there, reduce positions or short, target 80k or even 78k. Don’t hold through, don’t add, don’t fantasize.
Swing traders:
Buy in batches between 80,500-81,000, keep total position under 30%, keep cash for 78k. Volatility will increase around FOMC (October 28), wait for data before acting, don’t bet early.
Long-term holders:
Add once every $1,000 drop below 80k, but don’t go all in at once. The real bottom won’t form in one day. Continuous ETF net inflows and cooling inflation expectations are mid-term add signals.
BTC now is like November 2022—
FTX collapsed, BTC dropped to 15,500, everyone shouted "crypto is dead."
One year later, 40,000+.
I’m not saying this is the bottom now.
I’m saying:
The real big money always buys in batches "when everyone is scared," not chasing "when everyone is shouting bull market is back."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
"Elon Musk Plans Merger, Holding 30,000 Bitcoins"
Musk just announced in a call that SpaceX is evaluating a merger with Tesla, aiming to finalize it by the first half of 2027.
SpaceX earned a net profit of $4.4 billion in a single quarter and is eager to unlock secondary market liquidity, while Tesla needs high-profit assets to support its valuation.
The most shocking aspect of the merger is the Bitcoin ledger; together, they hold 30,221 BTC, which would make them the world's second-largest Bitcoin holder after consolidation.
Bitcoin is stable around $81,800, and major investors are closely watching the first draft valuation from the special committee expected mid-next month. $BTC Unitree surged 20% to the daily limit in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of over 54% in nearly 6 trading days, and its market value returned to 250 billion.
The leader boosted sector sentiment, with Hong Kong-listed robotics stocks moving in unison: 51World surged over 23%, Yuejiang and UBTech rose over 8%, and Horizon Robotics nearly 6%.
This round of market rally is mainly driven by four major catalysts:
Policy dividend release: Around October 19, humanoid robot support policies and the first batch of national standards were implemented, raising sector expectations;
Ecosystem conference catalyst: On October 22, the partner conference launched the Unitree Rehearsal autonomous iteration project, strengthening the AI + robotics logic;
New product igniting heat: The H2-X "Kung Fu Legend" demo video went viral, but autonomous capabilities and commercialization still need verification;
Oversold rebound elasticity: The previous retracement from the relative listing high exceeded 60%, combined with capital inflow, resulting in a stronger rebound.
Risk warning: The short-term surge is large, and the pressure of correction cannot be ignored. The financial report will be disclosed on October 29, and this node is likely to see intense volatility.
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice$BMT has risen. At the time on x, I didn't dare to say anything because I was afraid it would affect operations, but maybe I was overthinking it; no one really cared about what I said.
The logic is: normally, with negative fees, high borrowing rates, and large spot trading volume, the price should drop. Because if the market makers or retail arbitrageurs are selling, it should fall. So if it doesn't fall, what does that mean? It means no one is manipulating the price, and it's being supported on the spot market. Now that it has already risen, we can say the short-term indicators are about to fail.
Also, in the past two days, many projects no longer show borrowing rates. I checked and found that borrowing has been disabled, so this indicator might not be as useful in the future. We'll have to find new indicators to fight against manipulative market makers again.Bitcoin’s resilience during the latest US equity selloff deserves attention, but it does not yet amount to a reversal. $BTC fell from 84,876 to 81,335, a loss of more than 3,500 points, while US technology and semiconductor shares slid in unison. The striking part is what happened next: Bitcoin did not continue making fresh lows. Selling appeared during the Asian session, yet US hours brought a bid back into the market. That intraday handoff is a meaningful sign of demand, though it remains a deLet's cool down first. When you see someone shorting, don't rush to take it as a signal of a price drop. Core Trader 57 just opened a short on $ETH with 7x leverage, a nominal position of about $63,800, at a reference price of $2404.4. Although I tend to be bearish, in my view this trade is just a bearish bet, not evidence that the market is weakening.
I'm not quick to agree for two reasons. First, a single wallet's short position record doesn't reveal the full asset allocation; it could be directional or hedging, so you can't infer the true intent from this trade alone. Second, 7x leverage compresses the margin for error: estimating initial margin by dividing nominal position by leverage, if the price rises about 3% against the position, the unrealized loss would be roughly 21% of the initial margin, excluding fees, and this doesn't even represent the liquidation threshold. My guess is that if the price keeps rising, this leveraged short will be harder to hold than an unleveraged short; the directional call hasn't been validated yet, but the position pressure is already here.
Of course, he might be right. If the price continues to stay below $2404.4 and the rebound fails to reclaim that level for a long time, I will increase my recognition of this short, rather than stubbornly opposing it. Are you bullish or bearish? Using $2404.4 as the observation point, tell me what price action would make you admit your judgment was wrong. The hot list is still asking, "With ETF buying flows continuing to return, why isn't BTC strong?" but the latest fund flow data has already changed. First update the date, then discuss the reasons; otherwise, the analysis might be about yesterday's market. According to Farside's current query of the US Bitcoin spot ETF table, the net inflow on October 21 Eastern Time was about $524.8 million, but on the 22nd it turned into a net outflow of about $635.6 million. PANews today cited SoSoValue also reporting a net outflow of about $635 million on the 22nd, with direction and magnitude consistent; the precise numbers here uniformly use Farside's data. Breaking down the 22nd, IBIT had a net outflow of about $254.1 million, FBTC about $217.5 million, and ARKB about $109.4 million. The outflow involved multiple products, so we cannot continue to summarize that day simply as "institutional buying continuously entering." But don't immediately jump to "funds are completely fleeing." Under the same Farside data, from the 19th to the 22nd, the four trading days still had a total net inflow of about $439.1 million. One day's outflow ended this continuous net inflow but did not erase all previous inflows. My judgment is: the sustainability of ETF channel buying has encountered fluctuations; current evidence supports raising the observation standard but is not enough to prove that long-term demand has reversed. The fund flow data also won't tell us the motive behind each transaction; we cannot automatically interpret redemptions as a manager personally bearish, nor rely solely on it to determine why BTC fell that day. Later, I will look at three US trading days: whether outflows continue, whetherIn the futures market, before a trading system revamp, doing an extra round of joint debugging is usually not directly considered negative news; the key is whether it's a schedule adjustment or a confirmed fault. Regarding the Ethereum news, I want to separate these two matters first.
According to The Block, the Ethereum Foundation has postponed the Glamsterdam upgrade originally scheduled for October 26 on the Hoodi testnet due to the need for further review of EIP-8037's interaction with mainnet smart contracts. The new activation date has not yet been announced.
My judgment is that this disturbs upgrade expectations but cannot be directly equated with a deterioration of $ETH fundamentals. Hoodi is originally the place to verify upgrades before mainnet launch, so taking more time for review aligns with the testing phase's responsibilities; however, the date being uncertain does indeed leave developers without a clear scheduling anchor.
Unlike traditional markets, crypto network upgrades must consider interactions with existing smart contracts, not just whether the system itself can run. This news does not say any specific fault has been found; I am more concerned about what the subsequent review explains rather than jumping to conclusions just based on the word "postponement."
My old-school habit is still to prioritize compatibility over rushing progress. For friends who have transitioned from traditional markets, do you see this delay as a risk control plus, or are you more worried about execution rhythm due to the new date being undecided?Tesla's "free cash flow turning positive" is genuinely good news. But looking over a longer period, the same metric paints a different picture: about 62% less than the same period last year. This is not a contradiction in the financial report; the comparison base has changed. The company's Q3 report released on October 21 shows free cash flow recovering from negative $1.092 billion in Q2 to positive $1.531 billion in Q3; last year's Q3 figure was $3.99 billion. Sequential recovery and year-over-year decline can both be true simultaneously. What's more interesting is when you break it down. Operating cash flow was basically flat, changing from $6.238 billion last year to $6.263 billion this year; capital expenditures, however, more than doubled from $2.248 billion to $4.732 billion. Less cash retained is closely related to increased expansion investment and cannot be directly equated with a collapse in the core business's cash generation ability. But don't just explain all the pressure away as "investing in the future." Operating profit dropped about 56%, from $1.624 billion last year to $718 million this year. Capital expenditures in the cash flow statement and expenses like R&D in the income statement are not the same accounts and should not be mixed together. My judgment is: this financial report proves Tesla has recovered from the cash shortfall in Q2 but does not yet prove it has returned to last year's profit levels. Bulls need to explain how investments will pay off, and bears must acknowledge that operating cash flow still shows resilience. Going forward, I will track operating cash flow, capital expenditures, and operating profit simultaneously. If investments remain high and profits and cash recovery improve together, expansion will be more🎬 Four small protocols on Friday: on-chain exchanges, infrastructure, content, meme, each going their own way
$HYPE near 80, large holders' liquidations reflect its trading depth 📊 This week, big brother Maji had a 25x long liquidation and added positions on Hyperliquid, pushing platform perp activity to the max. As the platform token, HYPE's extreme leverage activity brings fees and trading depth. The short-term 80 level follows perp activity, but repeated large holder liquidations also indicate high volatility, so be cautious chasing highs.
$BICO Account abstraction layer helps applications smooth out private key and gas barriers. On-chain perps like Hyperliquid are still played by veterans; to go mainstream, user experience must improve first. The market currently doesn't price in infrastructure premium at 0.0164, but all large-scale on-chain trading platforms must go through this layer.
$BEAT Around 0.0743, content protocol is still in early stage 💤
On-chain audio copyright revenue sharing allows creators to continuously earn from plays, with traceable licensing flow. At 0.074, creator base and play volume are still small. This week's on-chain trading activity is not much related to it. Real growth requires seeing substantial play volume and protocol revenue to move out of early stage.
$DOGE Bitwise's Dogecoin spot ETF product BWOW liquidation closed, investors received cash. This marks a retreat in meme coin productization; institutions are losing interest in tokens without cash flow. At 0.08, pricing returns to pure community sentiment, so don't expect an ETF narrative rally in the short term On October 22, the Phase 3 data of the personalized melanoma vaccine by Moderna and Merck was leaked early.
Complete results: risk of recurrence or death reduced by 42%, risk of distant metastasis or death reduced by 38%; two-year recurrence-free survival 82% vs. 70% (CNBC).
$MRNA still closed at 202.63, down about 17.6%, intraday drop up to about 25%, with nearly 50 million shares traded.
I think this is a typical "good news sell-off":
Gains have exceeded 530% since the beginning of the year, expectations have been fully priced in.
BMO and UBS both said the data is clinically meaningful, the stock price reaction looks more like expectations were too high, not a data failure.
Don't catch a falling knife.
Only a recovery above 245.81 (closing on 10/21) counts as digesting the sell-off.
Breaking below 180.80 (low on 10/22) indicates selling pressure remains, keep away.
Do you think it will recover the previous close first, or break 180 first?
$MRNA
#Moderna cancer vaccine data leak
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Robinhood's trading growth has a foundation for continuation but faces volatility pressure. New products like prediction markets and options are expected to drive high growth in trading revenue, with continuous expansion in users and deposits; however, crypto trading is weakening, and performance is highly dependent on market sentiment. If the US stock market cools down and regulations tighten, trading activity is likely to decline. In the medium to long term, relying on diversified new products and bank wealth management to enhance user value can hedge against pure market cycle risks, so growth is not guaranteed to be steady.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Meta's financial report can simultaneously show "net profit growth of 264%" and "operating profit decline of 37%." If you only share one of the charts, it's easy to draw completely opposite conclusions. First, let's look at the company's Q3 report released on October 21: revenue of $64.601 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%; operating profit of $12.988 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37%; net profit of $9.860 billion, yet a year-on-year increase of 264%. All three figures are true, but they answer different questions. Operating profit reflects income minus related costs and expenses at the operational level. This quarter included $9.89 billion in legal settlement-related expenses, which clearly dragged down this metric. But net profit also considers items like income tax: the effective tax rate was as high as 87% in the same period last year, and 24% this quarter; income tax expenses dropped from $18.954 billion to $3.141 billion. The tax difference is an important factor in understanding the large increase in net profit and you cannot directly interpret the 264% as an increase in advertising revenue capability. Switching to a cash perspective: operating cash flow was $32.786 billion, and after deducting capital expenditures and principal repayments on finance leases of $34.906 billion, free cash flow was negative $2.120 billion. Profit growth and how much cash is actually retained are not the same thing. My judgment is: Meta's advertising base is still growing, but to evaluate whether AI investments are worthwhile, tax items, special expenses, and cash outflows need to be separated. Looking only at net profit will overestimate operational improvement, while looking only at operating profit including settlement expenses may underestimate the resilience of the advertising business. More to come$UNITREE surged sharply right after the article was published at noon. Here's the conclusion first. There's a high probability of a strong opening surge on Monday, but it might be completed during the auction phase, followed by quantitative selling as funds move elsewhere. Whether there will be a subsequent inflow needs to be observed in real-time.
Because the rebound has been confirmed as effective, and the resonant index along with $UNITREE's rise this time carries a sector effect, this rebound is quite strong. However, most of it is quantitative flattening. There will be selling on Monday, but selling out doesn't necessarily mean a decline, as quantitative trading will exploit intraday amplitude price differences.
Since the A-share market is closed on Saturday and Sunday, the crypto market might act in advance. This action could be completed over the weekend, with those wanting to capture emotional premiums placing orders early to take profits at Monday's open.
I'm ready to trade anytime. When the price hit the lowest point at 63 and I closed my short position, some asked if I would go long. I said no; with the overall trend bearish, I only short to maintain consistency in trading.
In summary, shorting might not be the right timing yet. The background is that the index, which has fallen for a month, gave an ideal mid-sized bullish candle today as a recovery, so it shouldn't be treated as an ordinary rebound. Because this resonant index-driven direction is unlikely to end easily. On Monday, observe $UNITREE's performance after the robots undergo collective quantitative selling. That's all.There are only a few days left until the October rate decision, so first remember an easily overlooked detail: this meeting will not have new economic forecasts or a dot plot. To judge the policy direction, you cannot rely on a chart that is not planned to be released this time. The official Federal Reserve calendar shows the meeting will be held from October 27 to 28. Meetings with economic forecasts for 2026 are marked with an asterisk and occur in March, June, September, and December; October does not have one. The dot plot is officials' forecast of future interest rates and is not updated at every rate decision as a policy commitment. This means that even if the decision keeps rates unchanged, the market still needs to judge from the statement and press conference whether this is just a temporary pause or a change in attitude toward further tightening. Deciding the current rate level and judging the subsequent path are two separate issues. After the meeting, I will look at three things in order: whether the statement's wording on inflation and employment has changed; whether the press conference leaves room for further rate hikes; and how the two-year Treasury yield, the dollar, and BTC react afterward. The mutual confirmation of these three will be more informative than just focusing on the word "pause." If BTC rallies first but yields and the dollar continue to strengthen and the gains quickly give back, I won't rush to conclude that a dovish trade is established. If the policy wording eases, yields fall back, and BTC can hold its gains until the next day's U.S. stock market close, the judgment will be more solid. This is the observation framework and does not mean these movements will definitely occur. My view is: this meeting is worth waiting for, not just about "whether to hike or not," but how far they are prepared to go after the pause. Without a new dot plot, it is even more important to carefully read the statement and press conference, and not to treat a single platform 81000 is not a "support," it is the "fault line" tested for the fourth time this month
Now let's talk about the most critical level.
Investing.com's analysis provides an extremely clear framework: the support zone is between $80,000 and $81,250. This range "caught every sell-off since October." The resistance starts at $84,000 and extends to the annual opening price of $87,570.
81000 is the "fourth test" this month.
The first three times, the price dropped here and was bought back. On October 9, it fell below 81000 to 80400, then rebounded. On October 13, it fell below 81000 and rebounded. In mid-October, it retested near 81000 and rebounded.
This is the fourth time.
And Coinglass's liquidation map tells you what will happen if this level doesn't hold: if BTC falls below $80,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $692 million. Conversely, if it breaks above $83,000, the short liquidation intensity will be $1.025 billion. $BTC $ETH $SOL #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 If this crude oil short position gets liquidated, I estimate it won't just rise to 102.85; if it happens over the weekend, it will probably rise even more.
The position size is 12.63 million USD, the opening price is 96.7 USD, the liquidation price is 102.85 USD, and the current oil price of 100.82 USD only needs to rise another 2% to reach the liquidation price.The day before yesterday just experienced a major correction, and yesterday the market gave no respite, directly crashing collectively. $BTC surged then fell back, $ETH and $SOL followed the drop, the selling pressure above 84,000 hasn't been fully digested, leveraged long positions were first swept out, and forced liquidations further amplified the decline.
This wave is not a single negative factor, but more like a macro sentiment combined with leverage clearing: tech stocks weakened, oil prices and interest rate expectations are suppressing risk assets, and the crypto circle's high-leverage positions are paying the "tuition" first. In the short term, 80,000–81,000 is the emotional support, and 84,000–85,000 above is the resistance for the rebound.
The market is deleveraging, not telling a new story. With high volatility and fragile liquidity, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Both Micron and SanDisk can benefit from AI, but you can't explain them with the same "HBM shortage" logic.
HBM mainly serves high-bandwidth data access needs, while NAND handles persistent storage. Both are in AI infrastructure, but their product uses, supply conditions, and competitive focuses differ.
SanDisk and Kioxia's previously announced new generation QLC flash memory improve read/write performance and energy efficiency. For these products, customers need to compare capacity, cost, and actual workload performance, not just how many GPUs were purchased.
I think this actually makes the storage sector more interesting. AI has expanded the demand for data processing and storage, but where the new demand ultimately flows and who gets the orders need to be studied separately.
Especially when stock prices rebound together, it's easy to think buying any of them is about the same. When earnings reports come out, you find some companies benefit from pricing, some from product upgrades, and others have investments growing faster than revenue.
I have expectations for storage demand but don't want to buy all companies as the same story. Whether new technology can translate into customer purchases and whether costs can be reduced after mass production will impact profits more than the specs at product launch.
If this market rally is to last, I hope to see more companies prove their value through their own business. Being lumped into the "AI concept" and rising and falling together every day is lively but doesn't help much in judging business quality.
#存储芯片股反弹，AI扩产与竞争并存 The Fear and Greed Index rose to 68, entering the midpoint of the "Greed" zone. But BTC still dropped 1.37% today — sentiment is moving faster than price, is this dangerous? First, the news. Sentiment side: Fear and Greed Index rose from 63 to 68. Price side: BTC at $83,383.1, 24h -1.37%, nearly one week +1.17%. Capital side: ETF latest single-day net inflow 30.2 million (fifth consecutive day), 5-day net inflow 211.2 million, 10-day net outflow 72.2 million. Macro side: USD 101.71, Gold 4,128.3 (-0.76%), S&P 500 7,757.17 (+0.58%). Next, looking at capital impact. Sentiment rising while price pulls back indicates the market is treating the pullback as a buying opportunity — typically a bullish market characteristic. But sentiment has two sides: 68 is the midpoint of "Greed," not yet "Extreme Greed" (above 75), so it’s not overheated; but if it continues to rise above 75 while capital inflows start to slow, then beware of sentiment exhaustion. Implications for BTC: The best use of the sentiment indicator is not to judge direction but to assess the "risk-reward ratio." When sentiment is below 40, the risk-reward ratio is favorable; above 75, the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable. At 68, it’s in the upper middle, meaning "hold but not suitable for chasing highs." I will watch four indicators next: first, whether the Fear and Greed Index will break 75; second, whether ETF single-day inflows will sustain; third, whether BTC can break through 86,$AAVE
The buyback has been paused since April 19, but finally there’s some movement from Aave. The founder Kulechov proposed Aavenomics 3.0, which bundles buyback, staking, and burning together for revision, and plans to permanently burn AAVE. The scale and restart timing will be decided by a DAO vote.
I’m focusing on the word "burn." Buyback means buying tokens back with money to support the price, while burning means permanently destroying tokens to reduce supply — they’re not the same. If they really permanently burn as he says, it would shift the token from inflationary to deflationary.
But the market isn’t very excited; it’s hovering around 149.7, only up 0.24% in 24 hours, and fees are still slightly negative. Bottom-fishing isn’t very active. I think everyone is waiting for that vote — until the burn scale is decided, no one knows how much of this promise will be fulfilled.
Last time I rushed in too early during a proposal phase, and when the good news landed, I got stuck for a while. Learned my lesson. I’ll wait until the DAO actually gives a burn number. This position looks like an opportunity, but it’s actually a double-edged sword. $BTR trying to replicate the explosive rally next door?
$BTR, this old wild coin, has finally climbed to the top of the gainers list from the bottom! But what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t just how much it has surged, but what the funds intend to do before the token unlock on the 27th!
Starting from early morning, BTR has been strongly rallying, with short-term heat clearly rising. As the unlock approaches, the market naturally thinks about the project team's chip arrangements, but keep in mind: a pump doesn’t necessarily mean a dump, and unlocking doesn’t guarantee a drop.
Current price around 0.061, a pullback and stabilization could be a chance to lightly go long; if the rally lacks strength and funds keep flowing out, be cautious about chasing the price up. #ETF single-day outflow exceeds $600 million, can BTC price stabilize? Institutions just entered and then quickly exited
Money moves faster than price, and it's the same this time.
Bitcoin ETF outflow exceeded $600 million in one day, public information data from SoSoValue.
ETH's ETF has been bleeding all month, but fewer people are talking about it.
Stabilization is not about who shouts the loudest, it's about whether the money comes back.
Before that, positions need to be light enough to sleep well.
To speculate again, this is my speculation:
BTC this time looks more like short-term risk reduction.
Money that just came in a few days ago withdrew first when US tech stocks weakened.
ETH is different; funds have been flowing out continuously for a while.
Also a reminder, fund outflow does not equal everyone being bearish.
Some may just be adjusting allocations.
It's just that ETH's leverage is relatively high, so volatility tends to be amplified.
Whether it can stabilize, I will first watch if ETFs will have continuous inflows. $BTC $ETH $OKB #HOODQ3TradingGrowth nhood chain, robinhood's blockchain where users trade stock tokens, saw dex volume fall 30% to $6.35b in october 6-12. but defi tvl rose to $1.058b from september 30 to october 12, and morpho, a lending protocol, held $486.8m of open loans there. so lending is now a large use, not only trading. that week, borrowers paid about $417k in interest and liquidation bonuses on morpho, but morpho recorded zero protocol $XRP
Everyone is talking about the XRP wallet count breaking 8.24 million, hitting a record high, saying the adoption rate is taking off. But in the same on-chain data, whales sent $112.4 million worth of coins to Binance.
These two things happening on the same day can't both be true. Addresses can be cheaply created in bulk; having many wallets doesn't mean people are actually buying; but moving real money to exchanges means they want to sell. I trust the latter more.
The price matches this: hovering around 1.32, down 1% in 24 hours, failed to hold above 1.34 earlier, with a fee rate of only 0.009%, few bulls are really pushing hard.
Adoption rate is a matter for years later, selling off is an immediate matter. I'm cautious; I'd rather miss out than catch this knife. I'll wait until the whales finish unloading this batch before saying more.The referendum had 93.5% approval for conducting independent L1 research, yet the coin price dropped from about 0.066 back to around 0.053. My advice for $STRK at this position is not to rush.
Around October 22 Beijing time, the snapshot closed after seven days of voting, with about 93.52% voting in favor, involving over 2,800 wallets. StarkWare claims this is the highest participation and abstention rate in history.
What passed was only "research," not "decoupling": to truly become L1, another vote is needed. The whitepaper draft is targeted for November; it is still ETH L2 for now.
OKX is currently about 0.0527, with a 24h high of about 0.0567 and a low of about 0.0524; before and after the referendum, it once reached about 0.066, but has dropped nearly 20% in the past two days.
I think this is a typical case of good news being priced in—the narrative is strong, but expectations have already been absorbed by the price. We now have to wait for the whitepaper and the second referendum.
I will first watch if 0.052 holds; if it recovers to 0.056–0.057, then we can talk about the second phase.
If the 4-hour close breaks below 0.052, this judgment fails, and the next support to watch is 0.05.
Do you think STRK will consolidate until the whitepaper before moving, or will it break 0.052 first?
$STRK#With the October FOMC approaching, what uncertainties remain with the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes? In the early hours of October 23, 0x469e liquidated the remaining 5,000 $SNDK long positions, resulting in a loss of $2.836 million in this round of closing; since opening the position on September 23, the cumulative loss has reached $4.583 million, with an entry price of $1,814.45 and an exit price of $1,247.20, a loss of 31.3%.
From July to August, SNDK rebounded from a low of $970.74 to $1,717.2, during which large whales took turns buying, with most realizing profits: 0x9bb opened a long position at $1,258.5, and 0x0ad completed 13 trades, 12 profitable and 1 loss, netting $2.816 million.
The entry price of $1,814.45 was already at the high point of the rebound in late August; the exit price of $1,247.20 almost returned to the low of $1,240 after the August 6 earnings report, meaning this rebound was fully given back. The long position established by 0x0ad at an average price of $1,506.84 is still at a floating loss, and its $1,510 take-profit order has not yet been executed. The script of "buying low and profiting again" did not find a successor this time.This ETH position has gained +204% from the waterfall bottom
(30x leverage, 100x leverage for trading)
Last night at dawn, the waterfall dropped to 2358, and the whole network was shouting for further decline. I caught the dip around 2360, with an average price of 2360.91. The reason is simple: the 1H RSI dropped just above 25, which is historically an oversold zone. I don’t chase the rally, I only catch panic orders.
Now the mark price is 2409, with an unrealized profit of +185U, and the margin has more than doubled. But I don’t intend to get emotionally attached; the position has already been managed for the worst-case scenario:
Take profit at 2420, stop loss moved directly from cost up to 2387.7.
The 2420 level is not arbitrary — the 1H 200 moving average is right at 2420.7, exactly. Below the moving average is a bear market; a rebound hitting this line will most likely be pushed back, so I set the take profit right at the moving average, locking in gains once touched.
After moving the stop loss up, the worst outcome for this position is still exiting with over 100 U profit, eliminating the risk of turning unrealized profit into unrealized loss.
Next two scenarios: hitting 2420 triggers automatic exit, securing profits; if volume surges and the close stands above 2424, truly stepping on the moving average, I will manually target 2438. If it breaks below 2387.7, no hesitation, the system will exit for me.
This is how you trade against the trend: enter with courage, exit with discipline. $ETH $BTC AI and demand have not disappeared, so why are storage stocks the first to falter?
Last night, the US stock market stirred again, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.6%, marking its largest single-day decline since June. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.72%, and the storage sector collectively came under pressure.
What’s more notable is that Meta, Microsoft, and Google are still ramping up AI investments, and Western Digital’s earnings exceeded expectations, yet their stock prices still fell. (Demand is clearly still there, so why is capital fleeing first?)
MU closed at $856.49, down 6.26%
SNDK closed at $1261.49, down 8.47%
META closed at $648.85, down 6.98%.
The performance of these three stocks reflects the market’s reassessment of AI industry chain valuations.
Micron and SanDisk need to see if storage prices and orders can continue to support profits; Meta needs to prove how much return the continuously increasing AI investment can ultimately bring.
The issue may not be that AI demand has disappeared, but that the market is starting to question: how long can demand growth last, and how long will it take to recoup investments? When good news has already been priced in, even earnings beating expectations may not stop capital from taking profits.
Next, the focus will be on storage companies’ earnings reports and guidance. If demand remains strong but stock prices continue to weaken, watch for whether the market is lowering valuations.
AI is still developing, but capital no longer just listens to the story; ultimately, whether it can make money is the key next step.
#存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 $SNDK $MU FOMC Eve Market Confirmation｜Gold Sideways, Meme Products Declining, Tech Stocks Under Pressure
$XAUT near 4131 🥇
XAUT is backed by physical gold, with its price pegged to spot gold. It remained flat before the Fed decision; the market neither bet on a rate cut in advance nor showed safe-haven buying, all waiting for the policy statement. Interest rates will directly determine the cost of holding gold.
$DOGE near 0.08 🐶
Bitwise Dogecoin ETF liquidation closure marks the decline of meme coin products; institutional enthusiasm for meme assets without cash flow is cooling. The 0.08 level reflects community sentiment pricing, making it difficult to drive the market relying on ETF narratives.
$SNDK near 1374 💀
The Nasdaq and tech stocks weakened, dragging down the storage sector. As a NAND manufacturer, SanDisk's fundamentals have not deteriorated; the current price is more driven by sector beta and risk appetite. Waiting for the Fed decision and tech stocks to stabilize before returning to inventory cycle logic.
💡Insight
Cross-market linkage is a major highlight on FOMC night, with different assets reflecting current market risk appetite in advance. $XAU 🔥 Trump suddenly softens stance on Russia, BTC and gold should pay attention!
Reuters reported on October 22: Trump recently relaxed some sanctions on Russian diesel, promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
On the surface, it's diplomacy, but behind it lies the pressure of oil prices and inflation before the US midterm elections.
What I’m more focused on is this transmission chain:
📉 Increased energy supply → easing oil price pressure → cooling inflation expectations → possible rise in rate cut expectations.
If the dollar and US Treasury yields fall accordingly, BTC could benefit, and gold might also gain support from interest rate factors.
⚠️ But note: Russia-Ukraine negotiations do not equal a ceasefire, and oil prices may not drop immediately.
My view: rather than just watching Trump’s statements, it’s better to observe whether oil prices, US Treasury yields, and BTC move in sync. First, let's pour some cold water on this: when you see a large short position opened, don't rush to take it as a signal of a price drop. Core Trader 57 has newly opened or added to a $ZEC short position: 6x leverage, 84.01 coins, with a nominal value of about $103,300. Although I tend to be bearish, this position alone is not enough for me to confirm the direction.
I'm not in a hurry to agree, for two reasons. First, the monitoring only shows the position size, not the full account; it could be a directional bet or a hedge. Judging the market based on a single address's actions can easily mistake someone else's insurance for your own attack signal. Second, 6x leverage amplifies not only the judgment but also the cost of mistakes. Roughly calculating by nominal value, the initial margin is about $17,200; if the price rises 5% against the short, the unrealized loss on the short position would be about $5,163, which is roughly 30% of the estimated margin, not including fees. If the price really goes up, the most painful situation is a short who left no buffer and is unwilling to admit mistakes.
Of course, he could also be right. If the price continues to fall afterward and the rebound cannot recover the reference price of about $1,229.15 for this trade, I would be more convinced that this short entry timing was correct; this is my observation condition, not a market fact that has already happened. Regarding this 6x short position, are you bullish or bearish? Give a price-based reason for your judgment, and clearly explain under what circumstances you would admit you were wrong.Brent crude surged to $113! The Middle East is heating up again, why is $BTC not acting as a safe haven but instead being suppressed?
#Middle East energy risks escalate, international oil prices remain high
Everyone is going crazy watching this, Brent crude jumped 4% in one day, directly hitting $113, a five-month high, and WTI even broke $100 intraday. $CL
Why such a fierce rise? The Houthi militants targeted Saudi airports and energy facilities with bombings, and the US has already evacuated some diplomatic families stationed in Saudi Arabia; Iran escalated rhetoric in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Israel were exposed to have plans ready to strike Iran after the midterm elections. The market is starting to price in a "war restart" into oil prices.
Here's the most interesting part: logically, in wartime, people should buy gold as a safe haven, right? But gold and silver were heavily hit, and BTC didn't benefit either, surging to 84,000 then falling back to around 82,700.
The logic is actually simple—oil price surge = inflation uncontrollable = Fed dares not ease, high interest rates hang over, so volatile assets like crypto get cold water poured on them first. So now it's not a "buy crypto as a safe haven" scenario, but rather "the higher the oil price, the heavier the shadow of rate hikes, the more suppressed crypto is."
In the short term, the Middle East situation is the biggest variable; if real conflict breaks out and oil prices surge again, BTC will likely fluctuate with the macro environment. At times like this, don't bet on direction; watching oil prices and Strait news is more useful than watching K-lines.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
SK Hynix will release its financial report for the third quarter of 2026 on October 28. The market expects a new all-time high in operating profit — the sixth consecutive quarter with a record update. However, behind the impressive numbers lie serious concerns: HBM4 shipment rates are below expectations, and Samsung Electronics is rapidly closing the gap.
Earnings forecast: operating profit around 77 trillion won Conclusion first: $EDGE rose 10% today, half due to real protocol revenue returning, and half driven by perpetual leverage.
On-chain data (DefiLlama, edgeX fees): On October 17, it was only $34,305, then rose continuously over five days to $88,175 on October 22, an increase of 157%. 7-day total $484,000, 30-day total $2,577,000, daily average $86,000 — yesterday's single day just reached the 30-day average.
But the token didn't follow. On CoinGecko, $EDGE is still down 44% over 30 days, with an ATH of $1.54 (May 22) now less than a quarter of that. Protocol TVL is $59.93 million, circulating supply only 350 million / total supply 1 billion.
The driving force is in the contracts: OKX perpetual 24h volume $6.16 million, while spot is only $840,000, a 7.3x difference. Open interest rose from $1.87 million at 0:00 today to $2.27 million at 14:00, a 21% increase in 14 hours — indicating new longs entering, not shorts covering. Funding rate flipped from -0.004% at 12:00 yesterday to +0.005% at 12:00 today.
Revenue recovery is real, leverage increase is real. Paying a premium chasing the high is not the same as paying for expectations.
Are you buying into the protocol revenue logic, or this wave of perpetual premium? $EDGE $XAU This wave of short positions on gold is so smooth!
From 4070 precisely caught down to 3994, perfectly validating the power of following the trend.
Although the price has now reached 3994, don't rush to bottom-fish; the next target is straight to 3950!
Why dare to continue bearish down to 3950? Let's break it down.
US initial jobless claims hit a new low not seen in nearly 57 years; strong employment means the Fed's rate cuts are nowhere in sight. In a high interest rate environment, holding zero-yield assets like gold has a high opportunity cost, and funds are still flowing out. After breaking through the 4100 and 4075 defense lines, bullish confidence collapsed.
The current rebound is just a downward consolidation; the 4030-4040 range above is all trapped positions. As long as it doesn't hold above 4050, any rebound is a bull trap. Next week, the PCE data, the Fed's most watched inflation indicator, will be released. If the data remains hot, gold could directly crash to test 3950 or even lower.
Operationally, it is recommended to lightly short at the current price, set stop loss at 4055, and target breaking 4000 straight to 3950! Remember, do not try to guess the bottom before the trend reverses.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ I really don't quite understand this Yushu stock. A few days ago when it dropped to 404, everyone said robots couldn't really make much money. Today at 624, it hit the 20% daily limit with over 4 billion in trading volume.
The same company, just a few trading days apart, suddenly worth so much more?
The funniest part is that Yushu itself issued a risk warning a couple of days ago, saying the P/E ratio was already 388 times, while the industry average was only 39 times. But after the market read the announcement, they kept buying.
I actually think these funds never intended to care about the P/E ratio at all.
Yushu surged past 1100 on its first day of listing, then fell all the way down to just over 400. At that time, many thought this stock was done for. Now it has rebounded from 404 to 624, up 54%, and people are starting to think the robot sector is about to take off.
People's memory sometimes really only lasts for three candlesticks. But I won't rush to short just because it rose 50%. When it went from 500 to 600 before, probably many thought it was about done, but today it hit the 20% limit again. When a stock like this gets emotional, trying to guess the top by valuation might just get you out early.
I'm more interested to see how it moves next week. If it repeatedly opens the limit at 624 and people are still willing to rush in, that might be more interesting than today's straight limit-up. If it opens and crashes below 600, those who chased in today will probably have to watch their phones even while sleeping.
I haven't bought yet, honestly feeling a bit sour. At 404 I thought it could fall more, at 624 I think it's too expensive.
Watching others make money while I'm sitting here calculating P/E ratios, damn.