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October did let you see $BTC starting with 7, but unfortunately, it was just for a moment.
It's no surprise that $80K is such a strong level. According to Glassnode data, the average cost for spot ETFs and coins held by listed companies is between $80K and $81.5K.
And the resistance between $85K and $87.5K still exists:
People who entered six months to a year ago have an average cost of about $86.7K;
The largest cluster of sell orders on Binance spot is piled between $86.5K and $87.5K;
The two biggest liquidation concentration zones are at $85K and $87K.
It will keep shaking; after enough consolidation, a big move will come!BTC, ETH, and SOL all strengthened together today, but my attitude remains "wait and see, don't chase" 🧐.
The rebound is just a price-level correction and does not mean the trend has reversed. Last week, BTC and ETH-related ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $549 million, and SOL still faces capital outflow pressure 💸. Without incremental funds stepping in, the short-term recovery looks more like an emotional fix rather than a confirmed trend.
So strategically, observe the short-term rebound first, don't rush to take sides; wait until the capital flow shifts from "outflow" to "sustained inflow" before talking about a trend reversal ⏳.$ADA
100,000 farms registered on-chain, ADA rose by 0.76%
The Cardano Foundation officially announced that 100,000 farms in India have completed on-chain registration and plan to apply for 10 million ADA treasury funds to implement an 18-month advancement plan. If this news had come two or three years ago, ADA would have surely surged by double digits.
Today, it’s 0.2257, up 0.76% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.2306, steady like a straight line.
Even more interesting are the fee rate and position divergence: the funding rate hits the max at 0.01%, longs are willing to pay full interest; contract open interest is only 120 million ADA, about 27 million USD, pitifully small. Everyone verbally optimistic, but no one is really betting.
Contract traders, chime in: is this combination of max funding rate + minimal OI the calm before big money enters, or has this coin long been forgotten by the contract crowd?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 $ETH
Li Kui hasn't heated up yet, but Li Gui already has 13 copies lined up
JPMorgan Chase's tokenized deposit JPMD just launched on Ethereum, and within a week, 13 counterfeit versions have appeared. I laughed when I saw this number; the clones are even more active than the original.
This should be negative security news, but Ethereum refuses to fall, rising 1.23% in 24 hours back to 2478, with a high of 2526. The funding rate is only 0.003%, leverage is very clean; open interest is 559,000 contracts, about $1.39 billion.
Off-topic, Binance's stablecoin reserves have dropped to a one-year low of $41.6 billion, shrinking by $6.3 billion since April. Some analysts bluntly say the liquidity needed for the rally is thinning.
So the current situation is quite twisted: counterfeit tokens everywhere represent traffic, the official coin is rising, but the exchange's ammunition is decreasing.
For your ETH longs, are you planning to hold above 2526, or start reducing positions once it reaches this level? I'd like to hear how those actually trading contracts are positioning themselves.
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Write opinionA 3 billion USD broth is simmering on the stove, Ultraman is gripping the ladle staring at the thermometer, while next door at the stove, Anthropic has already placed the November IPO dish at the pass—this AI banquet is at the critical moment where the heat is sharp enough to draw blood.
Let me lay out the ingredients first: OpenAI’s dish has an annualized revenue of about 50 billion, valued at over 1.4 trillion, with 30 billion of simmering broth added to the financing pot; Anthropic’s Q3 revenue is 16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-over-quarter increase, and they are arranging 60 billion in chip financing and about 45 billion in large-scale computing power orders. Remember, these two companies’ "revenues" are cut with two different knives—one slices annualized cash flow, the other slices quarterly actual receipts, like the "chef’s recommendation" and "daily soup" on a Michelin menu, they are not the same portion.
The problem is: the computing power procurement supply chain is the most expensive truffle in this dish. Cut it too thick, and the book profits are chewed up to nothing; cut it too thin, and the model’s texture can’t support the trillion-dollar valuation pot. Long-term funds and sovereign wealth funds are the diners paying the bill—they are not tasting today’s flavor, but whether the dish can be served steadily five years from now.
In my kitchen logic: mainstream assets are the main course, the steady protein powder; computing power infrastructure is that pot of broth, needing slow simmering over years to bring out flavor; and the IPO pricing of these two companies is the extra spicy chili—adding a pinch to enhance aroma, or dumping the whole bunch in to burn through the gut. Currently, the flame of procurement costs is still rising; whoever’s turnover rate can’t hold up first will have their pot bottom scorched.
What really needs watching is not how much they have raised, but the scale of revenue generated per unit of computing power—that’s the same principle as calculating gross margin and table turnover in your kitchen. Revenue growth is the open flame, financing cost is the hidden fire; when both press in, no matter how fancy the menu is, it can’t withstand the overflow of costs.
When large computing power orders are treated as signature dishes to flaunt credentials, the real costs have long been stewed into that invisible broth at the bottom, and the heat is only revealed at the moment it’s served. #openaianthropiciporace#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins Experience sharing on new DEX tokens (51)
Continuing to follow BURR, the $ZEC token issuance platform, as shown in the image below, the number of tokens burned in the past 24 hours is 5.5 million. Two dedicated burn accounts, 5Yyb and 6UPW, continuously buy from the market, but the support they provide to the token price is limited. From the chip distribution, the main force's strength is average, with no significant plans. The total supply is currently 744 million tokenThe 12.8-second final lock was shattered by a 150-millisecond checkmate — Solana is about to overturn and rearrange the mainnet consensus board. Don’t just watch the stopwatch for excitement; true grandmasters first look at the king’s castle: the consensus layer is the king’s wing, and whether the final confirmation can align the rook, knight, and cannon into a kill. Alpenglow moves on-chain voting off-chain, then seals it with certificates. This isn’t just a skin change; it’s proactively sacrificing a piece in the most crowded square of the midgame to open a new file. Voting costs are cut by about 60%, equivalent to pushing the pawn chain forward overall; the pawns previously suppressed by fees now have a promotion path. Final confirmation is compressed from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, more like dragging a slow game into a blitz, re-pricing the value of initiative. Decentralized finance trading, stablecoin payments, and on-chain settlements will be the first to smell blood: market making order cancellations, liquidation triggers, payment confirmations — all scenarios requiring forced calculation of moves before the opponent acts. Whoever gets the faster final judgment first can stack rooks on the open file. The linkage of the US stock token XIBM is just a flank distraction; don’t treat it as the main attack direction. Capital truly calculates the stability of mainnet consensus, validator incentive structures, and whether after the October 21 opening there will be a "paper fast, real slow" timing gap. An untested upgrade is like an unopened endgame; don’t commit all your pieces before castling. But once the certificate mechanism runs smoothly, on-chain settlement will transform from a pawn on the edge to a pawn on the open file. Position management in this game isn’t about adding or reducing positions but piece activity: fast confirmation is the pawn on the open file, low cost is the open file, stablecoin payments are the rook occupying the second baseline, decentralized finance liquidation is the knight stepping on the double. How will opponents respond? If real-world delays jitter, fast finality is a false initiative; if stable continuously, the slow chain’s defensive formation will be compressed square by square. After October 21, first see if validator voting costs truly drop, then if payments and liquidations keep traffic on-chain, and finally if the linkage of tokens like XIBM effectively delivers checkmate. Whoever still treats final confirmation as a minor piece will be forced to exchange pieces in the midgame. #solanaalpenglowupgrade 🎮 SLX can be spent, RE can be used for voting, the token utilities really shouldn't be mixed up
$SLX's mini-game design includes in-game purchases and rewards, providing at least a clear usage scenario. But I think a more important question is whether the coins players spend and the rewards they receive can form a healthy cycle.
Participation in activities doesn't equal willingness to keep paying. What truly improves ratings is the gameplay itself retaining users and reducing reliance on reward incentives; whether players want to keep playing after receiving rewards is closer to long-term demand than download numbers.
$RE is a governance token, and the official statement clearly says it does not represent claims on protocol revenue, profits, or insurance cash flow. This boundary directly affects valuation: the expansion of reinsurance business scale cannot be directly translated into increased token dividends.
I focus more on why governance participation is valuable, who needs to be involved in rule-making, and whether the token can generate stable demand. The sector has a large space to attract attention, but the specific rights bought must be clearly explained first; this layer cannot be skipped.
$WLD is reported at $0.571, up 13.63% in the past 7 days, and up 25.99% in the past 30 days. Its market foundation is more complete than many tokens just beginning to recover. I am somewhat positive about the price performance, but I won't assume token demand can be calculated by the same formula just because other projects have usage scenarios.
The existing price increase provides evidence of strength or weakness, but true long-term judgment must return to each mechanism; market recognition can happen first, but value proof cannot always rely on price increases as a substitute.Another beautiful facade rendering has been hung in the Zurich showroom, but if you lift the curtain wall, the most critical load-bearing transfer layer has not yet completed the load verification. Switzerland's first retail spot Bitcoin ETF has received approval; formally, it has been upgraded from a temporary steel structure shed to a permanent concrete frame, finally giving retail funds an official entry point. However, the listing date and asset scale remain blank, equivalent to a geological survey report without a seal and a construction organization design not yet implemented. Passing the blueprint review does not mean the building can be erected on schedule.
The PBIT submitted by BlackRock resembles another structural scheme: using IBIT-related options plus short-term fixed income as dampers and energy dissipation supports, providing a buffer zone for downside risk. The cost is also clearly stated—upside is capped, and principal is not guaranteed. This is not a free additional layer but a trade-off of roof height for seismic redundancy; for funds wary of volatility, it is like a stable building with controlled floors and dense shear walls; for funds hedging for high elasticity, it is a height-restricted tower, where the view is fragmented by structural beams once inside.
The linkage with $xIBM is like adding a corridor between two buildings: the corridor can transfer forces but also transmit shocks. Spot exposure, buffer structures, and tokenized mapping each have different load paths; if foundation depth, custody audit, market-making depth, and subscription/redemption nodes are not aligned, the more beautiful the corridor, the easier it is for nodes to crack first.
What truly determines whether this batch of products can bring new allocation demand is not the steel seal on the approval but whether the underlying architecture can withstand long-term use: whether custody is an independent load-bearing wall, liquidity is a fire evacuation route, fees are long-term settlement, and risk control is a constructible node. The retail spot ETF offers a rough-cast in-situ Bitcoin exposure, PBIT offers a capped structure with dampers; both can cover different risk preferences, but the premise is that construction permits, material inspections, and completion standards are all transparent. It now looks more like a model room open for viewing, not a delivered and inspected house.
In the construction industry, the facade can be stunning, but the structure cannot tell stories; approval is just the start order, while asset scale, listing time, tracking error, and subscription/redemption capacity under extreme market conditions are the foundational base. No matter how fast the corridor is welded, if the settlement joints are misplaced, the entire building will reveal its true grade in the first strong earthquake. #bitcoinetfexpansionROSE privacy relies on TEE hardware, with privacy as an additional feature; Mina is a native ZK minimalistic chain, embedding privacy into the underlying protocol, requiring no trust in hardware, allowing everyone to lightly verify the entire network state. Both are privacy public chains, but Mina's privacy narrative and consensus foundation are stronger.#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins Strong capital inflow into the US Bitcoin ETF! Brother 800's 15 BTC long positions have an unrealized profit of $340,000!
While the market is still hesitating whether Bitcoin can continue to rise, capital has already started to show its stance with real actions!
From October 12 to 16, there was a cumulative net outflow of about $228 million, but on the 19th, it suddenly turned into a net inflow of $527 million, hitting a new high since September 22. Among them, #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins Experience sharing on new DEX tokens (51)
Continuing to follow BURR, the $ZEC token issuance platform, as shown in the image below, the number of tokens burned in the past 24 hours is 5.5 million. Two dedicated burn accounts, 5Yyb and 6UPW, continuously buy from the market, but the support they provide to the token price is limited. From the chip distribution, the main force's strength is average, with no significant plans. The total supply is currently 744 millionBehind the Chain of Short Liquidations: Is This Rally "Fuel" or "Fireworks"?
Let's start with some numbers: In the past 24 hours, over $286 million worth of leveraged positions across the network were forcibly liquidated, with about **73.4%** of these being short positions—in other words, for every $3 liquidated, more than $2 were short positions taking the hit.
The strongest squeeze flavor is in BTC. Of the $66.5994 million liquidations, shorts accounted for 86.2%, almost a one-sided stop-loss wave. Although ETH had a larger total liquidation amount ($90.6166 million), shorts made up 71.3%, indicating that some long positions were also liquidated simultaneously. SOL's 81.3% short ratio reveals a detail: the leveraged short funds on SOL had been quite crowded, making it easy to trigger a stampede with the slightest disturbance.
Notably, second-tier assets like ZEC and NEAR did not appear at the top of the list but were also swept up in this liquidation wave, reflecting that short crowding is not limited to top assets but is a market-wide leverage imbalance.
The heatmap is all red—what does this mean? A liquidation wave with a high short ratio is essentially a "stampede-style short covering"—price rises trigger short stop-losses, which in turn push prices higher, creating a self-reinforcing short-term pulse. Such rallies often come fast and fade quickly. The key to judging how far it can go is not the liquidation data itself but whether the spot market follows with real volume and capital inflow: with volume and funds supporting it, the short squeeze can evolve into a trend reversal; if it's just leverage self-consumption, then this red flash is most likely just fireworks in the night sky, bright for a moment and then gone. 24小时里ETH爆仓卖出侧冲到6216万美元，买入侧只有2844万，这个落差比价格本身更值得盯。 你猜这波到底是买盘推的，还是空头自己踩出来的？ 我第一眼看到这组数，心里是"哎，这不是追多追出来的热闹"。BTC那边卖出侧爆了4787万，买入侧刚过1014万；ZEC更极端，卖出侧1226万，买入侧连零头都不到。表面看是普涨，底下其实是空头被一段段抬价逼着平仓，平仓本身就是市价买回，于是价格又被顶高一层，下一批止损再被触发。 这里有个容易被忽略的细节：ETH资金费率一度转负，意味着空头持仓还要倒付成本。扛着亏损、还要付费，价格却没塌，说明卖方在流血，但还没到彻底认输的地步。这种结构下，上涨的燃料来自被迫回补，而不是新增资金主动追价。 跨市场看会更清楚。BTC现货ETF连续净流入，但市场反应有限，说明传统资金那条线是温和托底，不是点火器。真正把短线节奏拉快的，是衍生品这边的空头平仓。两条线一冷一热，就造成了表面热闹、真实承接却偏薄的错位感。 偏多的路径是：只要价格不掉回触发区，空头回补还能续一段，BTC稳住、ETH跟涨，山寨里像ZEC这种空头拥挤的标的弹性会更大。风险则藏在节奏里，一旦抬价停Has the $CORE BTCFi "money printer" started? Core 2026 plans to use all ecosystem fees to buy back CORE
After the 8.31 vulnerability incident severely impacted the CORE token economy, the 2026 roadmap introduced a new narrative: relying on BTCFi ecosystem fees, asset management fees, and LST minting income to establish a secondary market buyback mechanism, attempting to move away from the old model of relying solely on blockchain inflation subsidies.
It’s important to clarify: this is not an automatic protocol burn. After the ecosystem business generates real income, profits are used to buy back CORE on the secondary market. The repurchased tokens are used for community incentives and staking rewards, which differs from traditional buyback-and-burn. The ideal flywheel is BTCFi trading volume increases → more fees → increased buybacks, continuously supporting token demand and reducing selling pressure from native inflation.
However, this mechanism has two hard constraints. First, income heavily depends on ecosystem scale; if BTCFi activity falls short of expectations, buyback funds will be a castle in the air. Second, the selling pressure from previously ghost tokens and the risks of validator governance centralization will not disappear simply because of buybacks.
Buybacks are a value support tool, not a cure-all. They can improve token demand but cannot erase the economic scars left by the 8.31 incident. Whether it can succeed depends on whether the ecosystem’s real fee income can be sustained.$TSLA earnings report has also been released. Looking at Tesla's corporate profits, they still cannot support the narrative of AI and autonomous driving robotaxis!
The overall earnings performance is good, with very strong gross margin and free cash flow, but the profit scale is still very small. Revenue is 28.05 billion, but operating profit is only 718 million, with an operating profit margin of just 2.6%.
Overall, Tesla's Q3 core business gross margin and free cash flow have shown significant recovery, which is positive and proves that wages still have the capacity to fund the expansion of AI and autonomous driving robotaxis. However, the 2.6% operating profit margin also brings risks, indicating that AI and Robotaxi have not yet formed a scale of profit contribution that matches the current valuation.
Therefore, the current stock price is supported by future AI commercialization expectations, not by realized AI profits. So this earnings report is not favorable in the current market's validation narrative of the AI industry, and its boost to the stock price is limited! #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Daily Morning Market Briefing (October 22, 2026)
Overview: The past 24 hours were earnings pricing day: Meta's revenue exceeded expectations, with both advertising volume and prices rising, but $9.9 billion in legal fees caused operating profit to plummet, and the full-year capital expenditure floor was raised again; Tesla's adjusted earnings per share slightly beat expectations, automotive gross margin improved, but operating profit was halved year-on-year. Both earnings reports point to the same logic — AI investment is still increasing, and profit realization is still being suppressed by costs. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister publicly stated "there is little reason to expect progress in negotiations," Brent crude remains near $110, and the Federal Reserve's October pause and December rate hike expectations have further solidified in a Reuters survey. Today's verification points: whether Tesla and Meta can hold their after-hours gains at the opening price, and the transmission of the $110 oil price threshold to inflation expectations. #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 $DOGE
DOGE released some serious news today: Dogecoin Labs was established, MyDoge wallet's 500,000 users were integrated, and Jordan Jefferson was hired as CEO. Sounds pretty legit.
So guess what? The price didn't move a bit, only changed 0.3% in 24 hours, currently at 0.08213, stubbornly stuck between 0.0812 and 0.0838 all day.
This is the awkward situation meme coins are in now: before, one tweet from Musk could pump 20%, now solid ecosystem-building moves just go down the drain without a sound.
The funding rate is clean at 0.01%, right at neutral, neither bulls nor bears gaining an advantage, and no obvious position changes.
I just want to ask: this immunity to positive news for DOGE, is it because the market is completely uninterested, or is everyone just waiting for a real breakout? Those holding longs, do you dare to hold overnight?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 $XRP
XRP has been quite volatile today, rising 2.5% in 24 hours to 1.37, making it one of the stronger major coins.
But when I checked the on-chain data, I was surprised: the 365-day MVRV is only 0.92. What does that mean? It means that those holding XRP for a full year are still, on average, down 8% and haven't broken even.
Here's the contradiction: a Santiment analyst just said that XRP's MVRV has the highest rebound potential among major coins. To translate, it means it has fallen the hardest, so it has the greatest room to bounce back.
On one hand, long-term holders have been stuck for a year without breaking even; on the other hand, data analysts are calling it the top rebound candidate. This 2.5% gain today—is it the start of a new rally, or just cutting the losses of those trapped above?
For those trading contracts, let's discuss: with this combination of long-term positions all underwater and a short-term price surge, would you dare to chase longs or wait for a pullback?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 $BTC
Last night’s surge in Bitcoin was quite interesting, shooting straight up to 84899, just shy of 85000 by a hair. The October rebound effectively broke through the weekly high.
But there’s an unusual detail beneath the surface: while the coin price is rising, Binance’s stablecoin reserves have dropped to $41.6 billion, the lowest point in a year. The ammunition is running low, yet the price keeps climbing—where is this money coming from?
Even more intriguing is the futures side: on OKX, BTC funding rate is now -0.0045%, negative. The bulls aren’t chasing; instead, they’re paying fees to side with the bears.
There’s another on-chain figure: short-term whales’ unrealized profits have dropped 53% in a week, down to just $4.6 billion. In this rebound, the whales actually profiting have decreased.
With funding rates turning negative, stablecoin reserves bottoming out, and whale profits shrinking, I want to ask those trading futures: for this oscillation below 85000, do you see it as a shakeout or a distribution?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #HBM4量产能否推动SK海力士盈利再创新高？ Node Expansion + Revenue Buyback: Core 2026 Must Fight a "Value Reversion Battle"
After the 8.31 reward loophole incident, Core set two main lines of confidence restoration for 2026: node expansion and ecosystem revenue buyback, launching a battle for value reversion.
Node expansion aims to solve the single point of failure problem in the past validator small circle, expand node distribution, decentralize governance power, reduce the risk of a single group influencing consensus, and address decentralization shortcomings. Revenue buyback switches the token support logic, no longer relying solely on inflationary issuance incentives, but using BTCFi ecosystem fee income to buy CORE on the secondary market, creating real buying pressure to hedge selling pressure.
However, both major plans have uncertainties. Whether node expansion can attract qualified, neutral validators to join and avoid superficial expansion; whether ecosystem transaction volume can stably generate enough fees to support buybacks are unknowns. The long-term selling pressure from ghost chips and the historical shadow of contract security have not completely disappeared.
Node expansion is responsible for strengthening the consensus foundation, and revenue buyback is responsible for improving token demand. The combination of the two is a good remedy for narrative repair but not a bottom-line insurance. The outcome of this value reversion battle ultimately depends on the ecosystem's real activity level and the effectiveness of governance implementation. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for BILL and AKE, both buy and sell slippage increased significantly, with BILL's simulated slippage at the 100,000 scale being the highest.
$IRYS sell costs for two levels decreased simultaneously. Simulated sell slippage: 10,000 decreased from 0.36% to 0.31%, 100,000 decreased from 1.87% to 1.56%. Cost improvements can moderately restore order volume, still based on actual tested levels.
$BILL simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.16%/0.15%, and for 100,000 is 1.57%/1.28%. After amplifying orders, slippage on both entry and exit sides increased significantly.
$AKE simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.08%/0.15%, and for 100,000 is 0.59%/0.47%. Do not linearly extrapolate 10,000-level slippage to 100,000-level; read levels based on actual order volume.Good news turns bad!
okx's RWA US stocks on-chain, originally planned to include more than 60 US stocks, but so far 16 companies have clearly opposed it, including giants like Microsoft, Google, Goldman Sachs, and McDonald's. The RWA narrative was once highly praised, and many people bet on OKB hoping this story would come true.
To be clear, these companies are not rejecting blockchain; they just don't want their stocks to be traded on this 7×24-hour blockchain market. Traditional US stocks have fixed trading hours, mature disclosure, and settlement rules. After tokenization, price volatility, capital flow, and shareholder identity all fall outside their familiar system, causing concerns about loss of control and potential compliance issues.
This has poured cold water on the market. The original expectation was a continuous stream of traditional assets going on-chain and incremental funds flowing into the crypto space. Now, a batch of targets has been cut, making it harder to advance the narrative.
But it shouldn't be dismissed outright. The SEC's exemption mechanism gives listed companies the right to refuse, which is a process negotiation, not a direct death sentence for the project.
Short-term expectations need to be lowered: the pace of implementation will slow, fewer targets will go live, and the heat around RWA will cool down first. $OKB aiming to explode directly from this wave of good news faces much greater difficulty than before.
This is how the market works: the most hyped good news, once blocked in implementation, can easily become a reason to sell off. This kind of expectation reversal happens frequently in bull markets.
Keep a close eye on RWA progress. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$TSLA Tesla's latest delivery data is out, with car sales exceeding market expectations. Many people's first reaction is that this is good news. But what the market is really focusing on now is not how many cars were sold, but whether profits can be restored.
Selling more cars does not mean making more money. Previously, to boost sales volume, prices were cut for promotions, and the high cost of manufacturing cars pushed gross margins very low. On top of that, a lot of money was spent on AI, robotics, and new chip development, leading to huge expenses that ate into profits.
Deliveries exceeding expectations only indicate that demand has stabilized and the risk on the sales side has temporarily eased. But whether money can be made depends on whether prices can be maintained, manufacturing costs can be reduced, and whether high-margin businesses like FSD and energy storage can keep up. If it remains a low-margin, high-volume model, selling more but earning less, the stock price will struggle to sustain strength.
Moreover, everyone knows Tesla still holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, and its stock price fluctuations will also affect sentiment in the crypto community.
So don't blindly turn bullish just because deliveries exceeded expectations. This news is positive, but not the kind of strong positive that can directly trigger a big rally. The focus going forward should be on gross margin and profit data in its financial reports.
In the short term, it's easy for the positive news to be priced in, with funds rushing in on the news and then exiting quickly. Whether trading US stocks or watching Bitcoin, don't rely solely on this delivery data to heavily bet on direction; risk must be well controlled. $SPCX $BTC
#SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 Has BTCFi's "money printing machine" started? Core 2026 plans to use all ecosystem fees to buy back CORE
After the severe blow to the CORE token economy from the 8.31 vulnerability incident, the 2026 roadmap introduces a new narrative: relying on BTCFi ecosystem fees, asset management fees, and LST minting income to establish a secondary market buyback mechanism, attempting to move away from the old model solely dependent on blockchain inflation subsidies.
Key point to understand: this is not an automatic protocol burn. It means that after the ecosystem business generates real income, profits are used to buy back CORE on the secondary market. The repurchased tokens are used for community incentives and staking rewards, which differs from traditional buyback-and-burn. The ideal flywheel is BTCFi trading volume increases → more fees → increased buybacks, continuously supporting token demand and weakening the selling pressure from native inflation.
However, this mechanism has two hard constraints. First, income heavily depends on ecosystem scale; if BTCFi activity falls short of expectations, buyback funds will be a castle in the air. Second, the selling pressure from previously ghost tokens and the risks of validator governance centralization will not disappear simply because of buybacks.
Buybacks are a tool to support value, not a cure-all. They can improve token demand but cannot erase the economic scars left by the 8.31 incident. Whether this can succeed depends on whether the ecosystem's real fee income can be sustainably realized. As SpaceX rises, is the crypto and semiconductor sector truly recovering or just a false rally?
On October 21, 2026, US stocks closed higher: Dow up 0.69%, Nasdaq 1.05%, S&P 0.59%, led by tech and chips.
A veteran's ramble: Don't be fooled by the pleasingly red indexes; money isn't flowing in recklessly. SpaceX surged over 7%, Tesla over 3%, Nvidia, Micron, and SK Hynix over 2%—this is the AI narrative reignited by earnings reports. The semiconductor line is even stronger, with storage, equipment, and advanced packaging all showing solid fundamentals, not just pure sentiment.
AMD up 9%, Dell 5%, the hardware chain is catching up, but don't chase impulsive orders at the close. Crypto concepts are the real sentiment thermometer: Circle and Coinbase up over 3%, Bitcoin bounced to 84,853, but don't take this as a bull market confirmation.
It's just high beta; when stocks dip, crypto falls first. Don't let token positions be swayed by the US market's green close; look at perpetual futures open interest and ETF net inflows for the real signals. Google's drop over 1% indicates funds are rotating, not a broad risk-on.
Lithium and food sectors weakened, but the risk-off margin hasn't collapsed; it's just a style rotation back to computing power. My strategy: watch Nvidia for a pullback to support in chips, and only trade crypto stocks like Coinbase that act as sentiment proxies; altcoins stay put.
The US market close isn't the end; the Asia session's follow-through will reveal the truth. Don't treat a 7% rise as faith; just reposition your chips and queue up again. Tesla's profit halved, so why hasn't the token crashed yet?
On October 22, Tesla's Q3 revenue was 28.05 billion, down 0.2% year-on-year, with operating profit directly halved to 718 million.
A veteran's rambling:
Looks bad on the surface. Auto revenue was 20.56 billion, down 3%. The car sales business is cooling off a bit.
Profit cut by 56%, don't blame sales alone. Compensation and AI R&D costs are the real cuts.
Gross margin rose to 19.6%, strange but true. Costs haven't collapsed, just the narrative has shifted.
Capital expenditure was 4.73 billion, doubled burn. Expected was 7.95 billion, market breathed a sigh of relief.
Free cash flow was 1.53 billion, previously negative. Money hasn't leaked out, after-hours first rose then fell.
TSLA fell 0.77% after hours, don't treat stock tokens like stocks.
Liquidity is thin, premiums jump erratically. TSLAB and TSLA are on different tables.
Token traders, don't just stare blankly at EPS. The 0.48 expectation was surpassed, but the core business is bleeding.
The real logic in one sentence: car profits support Robotaxi and Optimus, valuation relies on AI for survival.
Don't chase emotional spikes in the short term. If capital expenditure exceeds expectations again, FCF turns negative and there will be a pullback.
A brother's advice: earnings reports are not buy/sell signals, they show where chips are moving.
Cars aren't selling well, but the story can't stop. This is Tesla's price.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Free cash flow in Q3 was about $1.53 billion, better than market expectations; however, capital expenditures were lower than analysts predicted, so it is necessary to distinguish whether the cash flow improvement comes from operational growth or a temporary reduction in investment spending. Do not chase the rally just because deliveries exceeded expectations; instead, consider the market reaction after the earnings report, stock price trends, and earnings quality. The earnings report has been positive, and the market will now focus more on whether future expectations will continue to be revised upward.The truth about coordinated hard forks: Core did not split because all full nodes "complied"
Many people think a hard fork inevitably causes a split, but this time Core's was a coordinated emergency hard fork, synchronizing pace in advance with core validators and exchanges, with almost all nodes upgrading simultaneously, so no new and old chains split off.
However, "compliance" itself is a hidden risk. BTC and Ethereum nodes are decentralized and independently autonomous; whereas Core's validator circle is small, highly centralized, with low coordination costs, but this weakens nodes' autonomous veto power. Once the core validator group reaches consensus, rules can be implemented quickly, avoiding splits like ETC's.
This unity is not brought by cryptography but by social-level coordinated consensus. The benefit is quickly plugging reward loopholes, preventing ongoing inflation deterioration; the cost is that decentralization quality is called into question. If one day key validators collectively reject project proposals, the risk of a split will instantly erupt.
In other words, the lack of a fork this time is not due to a stronger mechanism, but because the participant circle is small and easy to align. Consensus maintained by coordination is far more fragile than cryptographic consensus, and this is its long-term unavoidable shortcoming.$BTC Short squeeze surge｜Don't mistake the rebound for a buy signal
Less than an hour after the US stock market opened, the market suddenly shot up sharply. Those hesitating whether to cut losses during the day are now even more conflicted. BTC made a big bullish candle pulling back from 81K to 83K, the sudden move feels like a raid.
$BTC current price around 82,800, up about 1.12%, with a steep 15-minute upward spike. The key is the 4-hour open interest: it decreases rather than increases during the rise, indicating short sellers are forced to stop loss, and forced buy orders to close positions are pushing the price up, a typical short squeeze.
$ETH rebounds the strongest, touching 2,450, but the 4-hour long-short ratio soared to 2.59, retail bulls are extremely crowded. Such unanimous chasing of gains is most prone to a shakeout, don't get carried away.
$SOL closed with a big bullish candle at 107.2, 4-hour long-short ratio 2.33, bullish sentiment is also high. Resistance near 108 is obvious, blindly chasing has low cost-effectiveness.
Summary: US stock funds entering combined with a short squeeze caused this sharp rise. The sentiment is too hot, I still won't chase the highs. After a sharp surge, a pullback shakeout is highly probable. Wait for stability before looking for opportunities.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ $ADA
The Cardano Foundation has spoken out again, publicly asking the EU not to extend the MiCA regulations to DeFi and staking. While others are scrambling to get licenses as a protective talisman, Cardano is calling for regulators to stay away.
ADA is currently at 0.2265, moving from 0.2245 to 0.2265 in 24 hours, an increase of less than 1%, with a high of only 0.2306. The daily volatility is less than 4%, as if the market never opened. The most striking thing is the contract open interest, 120 million ADA, equivalent to over 27 million USD, which is basically invisible among mainstream coins.
The fee rate is 0.01%, higher than ETH and SOL, indicating that shorts are paying to hold, but no one is really putting in real money.
On one hand, the UK FCA is intensively preparing to release guidelines in November, while on the other, Cardano is calling for deregulation. With just this 27 million contract pool, do you think regulatory discussions still matter to it? Those holding ADA, do you truly believe this narrative, or are you just stuck waiting for a rebound?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 The Damocles sword of hard forks: If consensus collapses, will CORE become the next ETC?
ETC originated from the Ethereum DAO event hard fork, when the community split—one group insisted on the old chain rules, while the Ethereum main chain upgraded forward. ETC became a niche branch with significantly reduced liquidity and ecosystem. This is also the outcome many Core token holders fear.
The underlying scenarios of both are similar: both were emergency hard forks triggered by vulnerabilities, testing community consensus. But the key difference is crucial: ETH’s case involved asset theft rollback disputes, whereas Core’s issue is a reward contract minting vulnerability. The BTC principal staked by users was not stolen; the risk is concentrated in the CORE governance token.
The premise for consensus collapse is that a large number of validators, exchanges, and developers refuse to upgrade, staying on the old chain, forming two parallel chains. Once this happens, the new chain loses hashrate and liquidity, easily repeating ETC’s path—shrinking trading volume, worsening depth, and long-term marginalization.
Currently, the Core validator group is relatively small, which is itself a consensus weakness. The hard fork temporarily plugs the over-minting vulnerability, but ghost tokens and governance disputes continue to erode trust. The fork is just a stopgap measure; whether it can avoid becoming ETC depends on whether the subsequent ecosystem, capital, and nodes can continue to stay on the new chain.Hard fork: Upgrade or get out. No fork: You can survive by lying flat. Core chose the hardest path
Core originally faced two simple routes. No fork and lie flat, old nodes continue running, the chain remains unbroken, exchanges don't need emergency halts on deposits and withdrawals, the community stays the same, but the cost is that vulnerabilities persist, validators keep over-issuing tokens, inflation continuously dilutes the rights of all holders, slowly eroding project credibility.
A hard fork is a tough solution: rules are directly rewritten, old nodes that refuse to upgrade are kicked off the mainnet. Vulnerabilities can be sealed at once, infinite issuance stopped, but at a heavy cost. Ghost tokens have already leaked and cannot be recovered, the inflation curve is permanently damaged; exchanges must urgently reconcile and suspend deposits and withdrawals, community divisions are amplified, and voices questioning decentralization arise.
It did not choose the warm water frog-boiling approach of lying flat, but actively triggered a painful surgery. The hardest part is: a fork can only stop future harm, it cannot erase losses that have already occurred.
This also serves as a warning to the BTCFi track: often the choice is not between good and bad, but between short-term pain and long-term slow death. ETH is currently around $2450.
• Funds: BTC-ETF continues to see inflows, but ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for several consecutive days. Institutions clearly prefer BTC, showing a strong divergence;
• Technical: Support at 2400, strong support at 2320; first resistance at 2520, a breakthrough would open the 2600 range. Recent rebound volume is average, indicating a correction rather than a reversal;
• Fundamentals: Staking rate is stable, but DeFi and NFT activity have not improved significantly, lacking independent catalysts. The trend largely follows BTC and US stock risk appetite;
• Summary: Currently passively following the market, no strong independent momentum. Until 2520 is firmly held, the pattern remains sideways.
(Information is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice) $ETH Tesla Q3 earnings released, but stock fell after hours?
Earnings summary:
Revenue of $28.05 billion met expectations, automotive revenue down 3%, deliveries at 486,500 units, down 2% year-over-year
Gross margin rebounded to 19.6%, adjusted EPS $0.48 beat expectations, but GAAP net income was only $787 million, a sharp 43% year-over-year drop, operating margin down to 2.6%
After-hours initially rose then fell, for three reasons:
1. Poor earnings quality: adjusted EPS looks good mainly due to non-recurring items, core business profitability continues to deteriorate.
2. Growth stagnation: vehicle deliveries declined, energy storage revenue also down 16%, AI story has yet to deliver revenue, fundamentals of traditional automakers cooling off.
3. Capital expenditure guidance cut: Q3 capex only $4.73 billion, well below expectations, 2026 capex target lowered from over $25 billion to $20 billion. Market worries about slowing expansion pace of Optimus/Robotaxi, disappointing on both ends.
This is a report of "excellent cost control but discounted growth logic."
Correction under high expectations cannot be saved by single-quarter EPS.
Focus ahead on FSD conversion rate, new product mass production pace, and whether energy storage gross margin can hold above 20%.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Three AI businesses, three different measures
$WLD, $NEAR, $TAO all carry the AI label, but they cannot be measured by the same standard. World ID sells proof of being "real and unique," including attribute and presence verification, with the core being whether the application end can block duplicate accounts. A 24-hour increase of 2.94% is just a price signal; more importantly, one should ask which scenarios repeatedly call the verification interface and whether identity demand can translate into token demand.
NEAR Intents operates as a "target bidding": third parties quote around user goals, and the winner is verified and settled by on-chain contracts. The few buttons are just the entry point; the key is whether competition improves execution results and whether cost and reliability are better. A 24-hour increase of 2.14% means the research focus should be on quote quality and experience, not on "cross-chain hype."
TAO is more like an incentive market: output, scoring, and incentive design each play a role, with subnets handling computation, reasoning, and storage. $268.7 is just a surface signal; the core lies in the scoring rules—whether the high-scoring output is truly something external customers are willing to pay for. Only when participation scale and sustained demand connect does the research close the loop.
The three respectively solve identity, execution, and incentive supply, with naturally different evaluation standards. AI is the common background, not the same business.
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 Old nodes go offline directly! The cost of Core hard fork, why exchanges fear this kind of upgrade the most?
Soft forks are backward compatible; old nodes continue to connect and record transactions as usual without going offline. But this time, Core's hard fork modifies the underlying reward rules, causing old nodes that don't upgrade to go offline directly, detaching from the main chain and completely splitting the ledger's validation standards.
This is exactly what troubles exchanges the most. First, they face the risk of chain splits. Once some nodes don't upgrade, two independent chains will form, making replay attacks very likely, causing deposits and withdrawals to be mistakenly sent to the forked chain, and asset dispute liabilities easily fall on the platform. Second, they must conduct large-scale reconciliation snapshots; balances, staking rewards, and burned tokens due to violations all need to be recalculated. Even minor errors can trigger user claims.
At the same time, fork news easily triggers panic selling pressure and severe price volatility. Exchanges often have to temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals, further amplifying market anxiety.
In short: a soft fork is like a traffic rule adjustment, vehicles continue to pass normally; this kind of hard fork directly replaces the ledger's "constitution," and nodes that don't upgrade become invalid immediately. Exchanges must bear the triple pressures of reconciliation, asset security, and public opinion, so naturally, they are especially cautious.Hard forks change the constitution, soft forks change the traffic rules: Why must Core's three upgrades be "hard"?
This analogy is straightforward: a soft fork modifies traffic rules by tightening restrictions or adding new features, with old nodes still recognizing the ledger, maintaining backward compatibility; a hard fork is like amending the constitution, rewriting the consensus, token issuance, reward settlement, and other fundamental contracts, with old nodes unable to recognize the new ledger.
Core's Hermes performance upgrade, staking rule adjustments, and the 8.31 vulnerability fix all touch on the economic foundation. Soft forks can only add restrictions and cannot invalidate the original reward determination logic; the vulnerability allowing validators to overclaim rewards cannot be fully closed, and the inflation curve cannot be reset. To modify the reward formula, destroy illegally minted tokens, or rewrite validator income rules, a hard fork is necessary.
The cost is equally clear: new and old nodes are incompatible, requiring all validators to upgrade simultaneously, posing risks of chain splits and community fractures, which exchanges fear the most.
In summary: adding new transaction features or speeding up can be done via soft forks; once core economic rules like token supply or reward distribution are changed, Core has no compromise and must hard fork. This is not a preference but an inevitable choice at the protocol level.特斯拉交付超预期之后，真正值得盯的并不是卖车这条线，而是财报里那个被反复提及却始终没兑现的叙事：Robotaxi。🚗 一辆车从“一次性卖断”变成“每天出门赚钱”的资产，这个转变的想象力，远大于多卖几万台车。 先看传统车企的生意模型：造一辆、卖一辆、收一次钱，本质是制造业，拼的是成本控制。而马斯克想切的是服务业——车队白天拉客、夜里继续跑，不用付司机工资，也不用缴社保。对资本来说，这套账听起来确实让人流口水。但问题在于，故事越顺，越要回到利润表上验证。 Robotaxi 的真实成本结构并不轻：买车、充电、保险、维修、运营，每一项都是真金白银；一旦出事故，责任归属还是悬而未决的难题。更关键的是，眼下 Robotaxi 还没跑出规模化盈利，监管框架和技术成熟度都未完全落地。这意味着“印钞机”目前仍是假设，而不是现金流。 所以我的判断是：马斯克真正想做的，不是多卖几十万台电动车，而是把汽车行业的赚钱方式从制造转向服务。制造业比成本，服务业比规模——规模一旦建成，想象空间确实巨大。但这套逻辑和币圈白皮书有着惊人的相似：写得再漂亮，最后还是要看能不能真正落地。📉 对应到交易层面，$TSLA 的现在这段行情更像箱体博弈，不是单边追涨的节奏。你也在反复被上下插针甩下车吗？ 这两天看BTC，感觉主力把节奏拿捏得很细。上方有空头压着，下方有现货承接，拉上去两三天就歇，调下来两三天又被接回，价格像被装进一个盒子里来回晃。真正交易的不是"会不会突破"，而是谁先忍不住在边界追单。我的理解是，这种阶段最容易被双杀：追高的怕假突破，抄底的怕假跌破，仓位一乱，节奏就全丢了。 从资金偏好这个镜头看，更能解释现在的拧巴感。ETF持续流出让边际买盘偏谨慎，大资金更愿意在区间下沿慢慢接、而不是在上沿追情绪；这会压制BTC的向上弹性，但同时让深跌也容易被吸收。传导到ETH，通常是跟涨力度弱于BTC、回调时又更敏感；再往山寨看，资金更偏向短平快、挑叙事，而不是普涨式扩散。风险偏好没有全面回来，只是局部敢做。 偏多的路径是：箱体下沿反复守住，卖压被慢慢消化，等ETF流出放缓，BTC先修复、ETH再跟上，山寨才敢扩散。潜在风险是：上沿假突破骗一波追多，或下沿假跌破洗掉抄底盘，随后再反向走，这种最磨人。我更愿意把这段当成洗筹和博弈阶段，不赌方向，盯住边界和成交量变化。 节奏比方向更值钱，箱体里耐心就是仓位。以上How do the achievements of Layer 2 networks translate into token value? The answer is not "automatic transmission," but mechanisms (・∀・).
The core right of $ARB is governance: protocol upgrades and treasury usage. The value of governance rights should be placed on whether resource allocation can enhance ecosystem competitiveness, not just on on-chain activity; a nearly 4.84% drop in the past 24 hours and price pressure also remind us that holding appeal needs to be proven (｡•́︿•̀｡).
In $OP's buyback design, purchased tokens enter the treasury, and subsequent handling is constrained by governance; it cannot be directly written as permanent burn. We should further ask where the supply ultimately stops; demand supported and total supply destroyed are two different economic effects, and evaluation must include the treasury's subsequent uses (¬_¬).
$ETH is reported at $2457.48, up 1.24% in the past 7 days, and should still be evaluated based on its ecological foundational assets. Development activity and network usage have a transmission process to token price; short-term judgment cannot rely on a single progress; it has weekly recovery but still faces monthly pressure, and positive expectations require the price to realize several more steps (ง •_•)ง.
In summary, for Layer 2 achievements to translate into token value, it requires verifiable resource allocation, clear supply pathways, and continuous price realization; it cannot rely solely on activity.ETF is buying, so why isn't BTC rising? Don't mistake single-day inflows for a trend
From October 19 to 20, crypto ETF funds experienced a rollercoaster ride: BTC ETF net inflows plummeted from $526.7 million to $23.2 million; ETH ETF first saw an outflow of $103 million, then only a $6.9 million inflow the next day, still net outflowing $96.4 million over two days. The so-called "strong institutional relay" clearly doesn't hold up.
More concerning is the mismatch between price and funds. BTC still has net inflows, but the strength has sharply declined; ETH price performance is relatively strong, yet the ETF hasn't even recovered previous outflow losses. This indicates that current prices may be running ahead of fund confirmation. Large single-day inflows can easily create illusions, especially when funds are overly concentrated in IBIT with insufficient coverage breadth, resembling pulses rather than a trend.
Another logic is: ETFs providing support at the bottom does not mean there is no selling pressure at the top. Long-term holders or leveraged funds could easily sell on rebounds, creating a hedging pattern of "buyers below, sellers above." ETFs only reflect US spot funds and cannot represent the entire market's buying demand.
Therefore, don't be misled by one day's data. Trend confirmation requires two points: $BTC holding above 83712, ETH reclaiming 2478; and continuous follow-up ETF fund inflows. Only when price and funds confirm each other in the same direction can there be real momentum. #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $NEAR governance voting is underway, focusing on reducing the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months📉. This is a supply-side easing measure, which will ease dilution anxiety for long-term holders. However, slowing issuance does not mean stopping it; whether it can become deflationary later depends on whether the on-chain real activity generates enough fee burns to consistently cover new issuance🔥.
In comparison, $UNI’s approach is more direct: linking real transaction revenue with token burns, and currently there is no actual inflation🔗. The more active the protocol’s business, the more value holders can share, making the alignment of interests clearer. Compared to just lowering the issuance rate, this “revenue-to-burn” closed loop has more potential.
Of course, mechanism design is only the starting point; the final effect depends on whether actual revenue and burn volume can continue to grow📊. NEAR is about reducing burden, UNI is about linking to revenue—both paths are worth monitoring👀. #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 #奈飞Q3盈利超预期，广告业务增长放缓 $DOGE
Dogecoin has some big news, but the market is pretending not to see it
Yesterday, something serious happened in the Dogecoin community. Dogecoin Labs was officially established, consolidating MyDoge wallet, DogeOS, and Such App into one company, merging wallets of 500,000 users, and hiring Jordan Jefferson as CEO. In the past, news like this would have pushed DOG up by at least ten percent.
So what happened? DOGE is currently priced at 0.08257, up only 0.7% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.0838, as if nothing happened. Keep in mind, this coin recently had its ETF application withdrawn by Bitwise, and despite this positive news, the market is not responding, which is quite abnormal.
Two interpretations: either retail investors have really left, so neither good nor bad news can move the market; or the tokens are stuck at the bottom, with no one willing to sell or chase, holding out for direction. The fee rate is 0.01%, bulls pay but gently, and leverage hasn’t surged.
This stagnant Dogecoin pool—are you futures traders still trading it? If 0.082 breaks below 0.08, at what level will you set your stop loss?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 $XRP
Bad news piles up, yet XRP is the one rising the most enthusiastically; this market is crazy.
I stared at the chart for a few seconds in disbelief. XRP's current price is 1.3756, up 2.78% in 24 hours, the strongest among the three major mainstream coins. But if you look at the data, almost all are bad debts: 365-day MVRV dropped to 0.92, meaning holders for a full year are on average down 8%; Binance XRP futures open interest cut by 15.8%, leverage is withdrawing; exchange reserves still hold $15.7 billion, like a knife hanging overhead.
A bunch of negative factors hit the face, yet the price goes up—this is the most abnormal thing today. Santiment offers an explanation: XRP's MVRV is the deepest negative among the three major mainstream coins, mathematically having the highest rebound potential. Simply put, it's the old logic of oversold rebound.
But I don't quite trust pure math. If that $15.7 billion reserve really gets dumped, any potential will collapse. This wave looks more like short covering plus oversold repair, not new money entering the market.
At the 1.37 level, are you buying on oversold repair or waiting for it to fill the gap before entering? Should stop loss be placed below or above the previous low?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 📺 Netflix earnings report revealed tonight: Slightly exceeding expectations is not difficult, raising the full-year guidance is the key to victory
Q2 revenue was $12.56 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year; operating profit was $4.193 billion, up about 11%; net profit was $3.401 billion, up about 9%; split-adjusted EPS was $0.80, compared to $0.72 in the same period last year. Profitability remains strong, but the operating margin dropped from 34.1% to 33.4%, with profit growth lagging behind revenue.
Operating cash flow was $1.744 billion, free cash flow was $1.525 billion, down about 28% and 33% year-over-year respectively, with the company explaining that part of this was due to increased cash taxes. Meanwhile, the company repurchased $4.7 billion in the quarter, about three times the free cash flow for the quarter, and EPS growth also benefited from the reduced share count.
The company guided revenue of $12.86 billion, EPS of $0.82, and an operating margin of 33.2%. Personally, I am betting on revenue of $12.95 billion, EPS of $0.85, and an operating margin around 33.5%. More complete contribution from price increases, continued growth in advertising revenue, and an expected slowdown in content amortization growth in the second half all favor profit realization.
The full-year advertising revenue target of about $3 billion also only accounts for about 6% of the full-year revenue guidance. #BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #SpaceXQ3营收大增161%，AI业务成增长主力 #奈飞Q3盈利超预期，广告业务增长放缓 $BTC
Binance USD ammo reserve shrank by 6.3 billion in one year, yet BTC bounced to the doorstep of 85,000
This morning I noticed an unusual scene while watching the market. Binance stablecoin reserves dropped to 41.6 billion USD, the lowest in a year, with continuous net outflows since April. According to the usual script, if the exchange has no money for the bulldozer, the price should lie flat and play dead. But BTC is currently priced at 84,655, up 1.9% in 24 hours, with a weekly high of 84,899, just a breath away from touching 85,000.
What’s more contradictory is the data is split both ways. On-chain data shows whales secretly hoarding 85,000 coins over four weeks, ETF had a single-day net inflow of 526.7 million USD yesterday, spot buying is fierce; but the contract rate is negative, -0.004%, shorts are still paying. ETFs are buying desperately, contract traders are adding shorts, both sides refusing to yield.
My understanding is that most of the money from the ammo reserve has moved to on-chain and ETF pockets, leaving thin liquidity on the spot market, so it moves quickly with a push. But the worst thing in this market is thin liquidity—a sudden spike can cause slippage that eats traders alive.
Brothers holding longs, in this negative fee rate environment, do you dare to go full position overnight? Or is this negative fee rate itself a trap?
#BTC现货ETF连续净流入，市场反应有限 #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 Meta 三季报：营收 646 亿大超，盘后冲到 7% 又吐回一半 Meta 三季度营收 646 亿美元，同比涨 26%。华尔街估的是 633 亿，多了 2%，还超过了公司自己给的 640 亿上限。四季度营收指引 730 亿到 760 亿，中值 745 亿，也比预期的 737 亿高。 可欧易上的永续，盘后最高冲到过 748.9，比美东下午 4 点高 7.2%。到美东 5 点 45 分又回到 721.8，只剩 3.3%，吐回去一半。数字这么好，涨幅却留不住，原因在后面两件事上。 先对一下我的前瞻。我说营收会小超，645 亿以上就算我错，实际 646 亿，这条错了，差了 1 亿。GAAP 每股收益我估 2.6 到 3.8，实际 3.83，扣了一笔 98.9 亿的和解费。不算这笔是 7.40，比不算计提的预期 6.6 左右多了 12%。欧易星球那个盘子看 GAAP 每股收益，3.83 没到 6.31，按规则是 No。 再说营收为什么能超。广告收入 630.6 亿，涨了 26%。拆开看，广告展示量只涨了 10%，上个季度是 14%；每条广告的价格涨了 1