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· Prediction market pricing concentration: Polymarket's pricing for GAAP EPS exceeding $0.37 is stable at 73%.
· Arc token one-time income support: Morgan Stanley's latest estimate indicates that Q3 other income will include $180 million in Arc token recognized gains, directly raising the GAAP diluted EPS for this quarter from the previously estimated $0.40 to $0.56. This non-recurring gain provides a substantial buffer to surpass the $0.37 threshold.
· Market stabilization and rebound: After a single-day drop of 9.31% last Friday, the stock price rebounded nearly 5% to above $75 on the day before the earnings report (November 3), and further slightly increased to $75.74 after hours, showing a short-term capital bet on the earnings sentiment warming up. $CRCL The most common way to lose in breakout trading is: the price just crosses the line, but the standard lowers accordingly.
Tareeq suggests that before seeing sufficient volume and a sufficiently prominent structure, do not continue breakout trading; instead, wait for opportunities with limit orders and high market cap coins. This is his adjustment judgment and does not mean all breakouts are invalid, nor does it imply that limit orders are inherently safer.
Kraken's $BTC quote is about $77,627, with a rolling high around $77,970, still not standing above the range. My personal market observation is that the closer it gets to the upper edge, the less you should treat "imminent breakout" as a fact that has already happened. I will wait for a close above before seeing if the pullback can hold; if it crosses the line but then falls back below, I will cancel the breakout assumption rather than switch to another timeframe to keep looking for bullish reasons.
My overall judgment is that doing one less trade before confirmation is more suitable for this market than continuously lowering the threshold. What can overturn my cautious attitude is the price stabilizing and showing sustained support, not just one spike. For now, I do not chase, nor do I rely on increasing the next risk to recover missed gains. When you screen breakouts, do you first look at volume continuation or whether the pullback can hold? This is just a viewpoint exchange and does not constitute investment advice.$ZEC
ZEC rose 8.5% today, BTC 1.2%, ETH 1.4%. It's the only one moving in the entire market.
I first looked at the fee rate, 0.01%, not raised at all. The position size is $151 million, the same level as four hours ago. The price pulled from 1121 to 1232, but leverage didn't keep up.
The 1H volume also doesn't match: 10 hours ago there was a 7,287 coin spike, but it hasn't gone above 2,400 since, the latest bar is 1,962 coins, yet the price has gradually risen from 1191 to 1232.
I won't chase this kind of rise. Sellers withdrew first, so the price is light; the buying side hasn't truly entered. I'll wait until it breaks 1245 and both fee rate and position size rise together before I acknowledge the trend. Right now, it's just that no one is selling.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ ETH-based tokens account for $3.79 billion: The Binance hack is not the end, but the starting point for "custodial trust" repricing
In this record-breaking Binance hacker theft, Ethereum mainnet and EVM ecosystem tokens, as well as ETH itself, constitute a large portion of the stolen assets. The total scale of ETH-related assets is about $3.79 billion, making up a significant share of all stolen assets and becoming the most closely watched component of this heist. Many only see the stolen amount but overlook a deeper issue: even the largest centralized exchange in the industry can have its custodial security defenses breached. This attack was not a traditional private key leak but started with phishing during early job recruitment, malicious development tools in the supply chain, lateral infiltration of the internal network, and then leveraging the EIP-7702 delegation authorization mechanism to gain hot wallet execution permissions. It is a complex multi-layered supply chain plus social engineering attack, exceeding the expected boundaries of conventional security defenses. ✅ Core changes in custodial trust repricing brought by the incident: 1. The perception that "top exchanges = absolute security" is broken. The market previously assumed that custody by large exchanges was a safe choice, but this incident proves that internal personnel, development tool supply chains, and new contract mechanisms can all be entry points; even with MPC multi-party computation wallet architecture, there remain risks of vulnerabilities at the permission delegation level. 2. Insights from asset structure: High proportion of stolen ETH ecosystem assets. There are many types of tokens on the ETH chain and complex authorization interaction scenarios. After hackers gain permissions, they can transfer out large amounts of different contract assets, exposing the complexity of EVM ecosystem asset custody: each type of contract authorization#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Don't think so A large amount of funds flowed out of Binance due to a theft incident. OKX could have attracted a lot of capital inflow, but instead launched a holding-to-earn campaign, holding USDT and USDC to earn 400,000 USDT. However, very few people participated. If the campaign had been for OKB, it would have been much better than now. They miscalculated, unfortunately, and people didn’t buy into it. The opportunity was missed. Now the funds that flowed out of Binance are starting to flow back. Everyone, take a look at the number of participants 😄表面看山寨在回暖，底下却还是BTC和ETH在撑场子，SOL卡在中间有点尴尬。 SOL这位置，你敢接吗？ 这两天翻图表的时候有个很微妙的感觉：大盘情绪不算差，BTC和ETH的节奏都还稳，但切到SOL身上，画面突然安静了。现价93.30，24小时几乎没动，7天区间90.86到103.65，从103上方滑下来之后，就一直贴着支撑上方磨。这种"表面平静"其实比大跌更值得盯，因为它说明买卖双方都不愿意先出手。 先说结构。90.00到91.50是这波的关键防线，7天低点90.86刚好压在这条带子里，等于价格现在站在悬崖边上的最后一块石头上。上方96到100是密集压力区，之前从103回落留下的套牢盘大概率会在那里试探性出货。所以短期节奏很清晰：守住91，有机会摸96再看100；一旦90.86失守，85就是下一个心理关口。 但我更想聊的是板块强弱这层。BTC稳，说明大资金没有撤退；ETH跟得住，说明风险偏好还在中段；可SOL这种高beta山寨却没跟上，反而是从高位滑落、横在支撑上，这就是典型的"表面热闹、底层结构不一致"。市场并没有全面转向进攻，而是在挑着买。山寨内部也在分层，资金更愿意待在确定性高的Crypto’s latest rebound has the look of a relief rally, not a regime change. $BTC is back at $77,622, up 0.87%, with $ETH at $2,291, up 1.79%. The gains are real, but the confirmation is missing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw clear outflows earlier, and institutional investors have not yet signaled a return. That gap between price and participation is the most telling signal in the market right now. The calendar adds pressure. The US midterm elections are shaping risk appetite, and November 6 brings impThe most surreal thing is that these three statements can all be true at the same time: the negotiations have made no new progress, both sides are still willing to continue talks, and the use of military means is not ruled out.
Iran demands the US respond to 7 conditions, Qatar is mediating in the middle, and Trump added that anything could happen after the midterm elections. It sounds like three different camps' messages, but actually, it's three facets of one message: no one wants to be the first to give in, and no one really wants to break the table.
So now the trend of $BTC largely depends on who speaks first and what statement is released first. While you focus on the K-line looking for support, others are watching the schedule to set the timing. $BTC has climbed back near 78,000, but don't rush to celebrate; the weekly chart might be showing the fifth consecutive bearish candle. Once the midterm elections are over, volatility will come. Binance has again reported unauthorized transfers of tens of billions of dollars in assets, and ETF funds are also withdrawing, so the rebound lacks strong support.
The A-share market is even more surreal. The main index is falling without resistance, while funds are rushing to speculate on "yang"-sounding pun stocks, with 11 stocks whose names include the sound "yang" hitting the daily limit up. On the other hand, CPO tech stocks are being bloodied, broad-based ETFs dumped nearly 80 billion yuan in a single day to prop up the market, forcibly turning the SSE 50 red, but the STAR 50 still couldn't hold.
$ETH is barely holding at 2280, while $NEAR has dropped over 6% and is still being cut down by leveraged funds. The Nasdaq rebounded 0.83%, AI giants collectively recovered, but Goldman Sachs poured cold water, saying 60% of the S&P 500 components have already fallen into a "hidden bear market." The excitement is localized; losses are widespread.$BTC breaks below 77,000 again, don’t just focus on the round number levels
Today BTC once again fell below $77,000. The US midterm election results remain uncertain, and weak tech stocks continue to suppress risk appetite.
But what’s more worth analyzing is the structure of the decline.
Glassnode’s report shows that the last round of pullback was mainly driven by active selling in perpetual contracts, while spot buying did not collapse in sync; instead, it retained some support.
The subtlety lies in this: the price has fallen, but leverage has not noticeably cooled down. Futures open interest remains at a relatively high level, longs continue to bear high funding rates, and demand for downside protection in the options market is also rising.
What does this indicate?
The price is falling, but the leverage risk has not been fully released.
So what we should be more cautious about now is not which round number $BTC has lost again, but that in a highly leveraged market, external shocks can amplify volatility once more.
Of course, spot buying still shows resilience, which also means the market has not completely lost support.
Going forward, the focus is on two points: whether contract positions can decline in an orderly manner, and whether spot demand can continue.
For $BTC to truly stabilize, it won’t rely on a sudden sharp rebound, but on risk gradually clearing out and buying returning steadily. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 BTC futures open interest surged 12.1%, while spot is quietly bleeding — Is this 78,000 wave really backed by real money leveraged buying?
$BTC: Price dropped 5.3%, but futures open interest surged to 694,000 BTC, funding rate annualized at 17%, leveraged longs are holding strong. But Bitfinex bluntly says buy orders in the 77,000-80,000 range are "passive," placing orders to catch the knife, not actively sweeping. Without spot ETF inflows, a rebound to 81,300 will face resistance.
$ETH: BitMine, the world's largest ETH enterprise holder, is underwater by over $4 billion, with stock price only 0.88 times net asset value; buybacks of their own stock are more cost-effective than buying coins — the largest spot buyer is stepping back. But 1.37 million ETH are queued for staking on-chain, with a 24-day wait and an in/out ratio of 137:1.3. The network is locking tokens, ETH/BTC fell to 0.029 approaching a three-month low.
$XRP: Today at UTC 14:46, XRPL activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment, fixing the PaymentBurn token minting vulnerability, with 33 of 35 validators supporting; XRP native supply remains unaffected. Event-driven, short-term funds are playing before the boot drops.
Summary: BTC is propped up by leverage, ETH whales are "defecting," XRP is waiting for the security patch to land. Are you holding futures longs or spot chips? Show in the comments, let's see who's swimming naked👇
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 热闹的仓位，冷冷的结构：ZEC 这笔 1400 万到底在赌什么？ 如果升级早已公布，为什么价格反而从 1400 慢慢滑到 1243？ - 月 2 日有个地址 t1JJnA 花了 380 万美元现货买入 3052 枚 ZEC，均价 1250，同时又在合约上开了两倍于现货的 8000 枚多单，名义价值 1016 万，加起来接近 1400 万美元。表面看是很猛的提前埋伏，但真正让我停一下的是节奏：NU7 主网升级 11 月 5 日才落地，出块时间从 75 秒缩到 25 秒，这个信息早就公开了，价格却没有提前走出来，反而一路阴跌。这说明市场并没有把升级当成新增利好去定价，更多是在等一个兑现窗口。 我自己的感受是，这笔仓位最危险的地方不在方向，而在结构。现货 3052 枚是实打实的，但合约那 8000 枚多单放大了波动，一旦 11 月 5 日前后出现"事件落地即卖"的老剧本，杠杆端会比现货端先承压。ZEC 过去两年确实有这个习惯：消息买进去，事件出来卖出来，部分分析者甚至提示升级后可能出现 50% 到 70% 的回撤。这不是唱空，而是提醒——当一个人用接近三倍于现货的合约去表达观点，他赌的其实不Interest rates are still pushing higher; Bitcoin is just catching its breath inside the box.
Overnight, US job openings and factory orders were stronger than expected, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.966%, and the US dollar index stopped falling, closing at 101.86. Gold closed at 3930, briefly dipping below 3900 during the session. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is about 75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by another 25 basis points to 4.85%, an 18-year high. Tonight, US ADP and ISM services data are due.
BTC is around 77800, up just over 1% in 24 hours. Funding rate is +0.01% per 8 hours, longs are paying but not extremely. About 70% of accounts are long. The total market liquidation in 24 hours is 175 million USD, with longs slightly more; in the past 12 hours, shorts have been squeezed. The liquidation zones are clear: above, first watch 78000, then 80000–82000; below is 76200.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Bitcoin's "Darkest Hour"? Continuous Decline: Is It the Darkness Before Dawn or the Beginning of the Abyss?
As of November 4, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $77,700, down about 4.7% over the past 7 days, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining deep in the panic zone at 26. But more thought-provoking than the short-term decline is that the digital gold narrative is undergoing a real stress test. First: The failure of its safe-haven function. Since 2026 began, gold has risen about 32% for the year, while Bitcoin has retraced over 40% from its $126,000 peak. During geopolitical conflicts, gold rises while Bitcoin falls; this divergence has repeatedly occurred. Second: The inflation-hedge logic has been disproven. The US PCE inflation has risen to 3.8%, but Bitcoin holders’ real purchasing power has actually shrunk by about 39%. In true inflation-hedging scenarios, Bitcoin has not delivered on its promise. Third: ETFs have changed its nature. When Bitcoin enters Wall Street trading desks through ETFs, it becomes part of the same risk budget system—when tech stocks fall, Bitcoin falls with them, and often more sharply. But the story is not over yet. Michael Saylor divides Bitcoin’s value narrative into four camps: monetary, capital, technical, and libertarian. Currently, pricing power is held by the capital camp—they treat Bitcoin as an interest rate-sensitive financial asset, and the ETF redemption wave is clear proof. However, another underlying trend is happening simultaneously: long-term holders are absorbing chips sold by retail investors, with about 75% of circulating supply now controlled by LTH. $BTC 在76868美元处卡住了，上方78000没摸到，下方76000也没破——这不是平静，是两头都没触发。过去一小时BTC跌2.93%、$ETH 跌1.22%、$SOL 跌0.80%，唯独$ZEC 逆势涨0.68%，可它在24小时维度仍跌9.72%，是全场最惨的那个。短线齐跌、长线分化，这种结构往往意味着市场在等一个方向，而不是已经选好方向。 真正值得盯的是筹码分布。上方78500至79500是一堵厚墙，下沿比78000高出约500美元；下方76000至76800也不薄，上沿被抬到76800。$BTC恰好卡在下沿之外，两边都没激活。我的判断很简单：站上78000才承认转强，跌破76000才承认破位，中间全是噪音。这不是预测，是纪律。 杠杆面在悄悄降温。全网持仓1341.54亿美元，缩水2.17%，但资金成本一点都不便宜——$BTC费率0.0106%全场最高，$ZEC 最低0.0066%。$ETH报2256、$SOL在92.27附近、$ZEC跌到1140，三者全部为负，$ZEC资金费率-10.07%最深。持仓在减、费率还高，说明多头在付钱扛单，而不是空头在恐慌。这种组合下，向上突破需#The Circle financial report is coming up, can the growth of stablecoins translate into profits? I believe Circle (CRCL) faces a major challenge: growing USDC adoption does not guarantee higher profitability. High distribution costs, agreements with Coinbase, and the possible drop in interest rates could pressure its margins. For me, the real test will be to prove that growth comes from real and sustainable transactions, not just accounting figures. #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching? $BTC $ETH $XAU The midterm elections essentially represent a vote on US fiscal and regulatory policies. Control of both chambers will directly change the short-term pricing logic for US debt, the dollar, gold, and BTC.
The current market baseline expectation is a divided Congress, meaning each party controls one chamber. Under this scenario, large-scale tax cuts, new fiscal stimulus, and aggressive regulatory bills are unlikely to pass.
Two other scenarios are considered unexpected and would cause greater volatility:
✅ Republicans take both the House and Senate
Expectations for tax cuts and deregulation of industries rise, concerns about deficit expansion resurface, and interest rate hike expectations will be repriced. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, gold comes under pressure; US tech stocks and AI preferences rise, BTC follows risk assets with a slightly stronger oscillation.
✅ Democrats sweep both chambers
Tend to constrain fiscal spending, push for tax increases and strong regulation, leading to deficit expectations narrowing. US Treasury yields tend to fall, benefiting gold; expectations for strong regulation in tech and crypto sectors rise, which is somewhat bearish for BTC.
📌 Reference price levels
Gold: support at 3900, resistance at 4020
BTC: support at 76000, resistance at 81000
👉 Trading approach
Elections are a typical event driven by expectation gaps; avoid heavy positions betting on the outcome in advance. Focus on comparing actual results with prior market expectations, prioritize observing US debt and dollar correlations for validation, and consider light trial positions only after market signals stabilize, with strict stop-losses. Macro event-driven markets have far more uncertainty than certainty.
Brothers, what are your thoughts US Stocks: Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months following every election, with an average increase of 15.1% and a median of 14.5%. But this year is different—the maximum pre-election drawdown was only 9% (historical median is 16%), and the distance from the historical high is just 3%, so the space for recovery is limited; historical gains cannot be simply applied.
BTC: Having gone through 3 full cycles (2014/2018/2022), it rose one year later on average by about 54%. But the key point is—the median dropped 31% in the first three months after the election, meaning the direction was right but the process was extremely painful. Also, these 3 times coincided with two and a half years after halving, where bull-bear cycles and election cycles overlap, so it cannot be proven as an "election effect."
Policy: The CLARITY Act missed passing the Senate by one vote in September and is now stalled; the new Congress will decide the legislative direction. A divided Congress is positive for the stock market (restraining fiscal spending) but negative for crypto (legislative deadlock prolongs uncertainty).
Core conclusion: Being optimistic about one year later ≠ no short-term decline. The real determinants of direction are the Federal Reserve's December meeting, corporate earnings, and BTC ETF fund flows; the election is merely an emotional catalyst.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin did not plunge further over the weekend, and the Binance turmoil has basically eased. The price is now back around $76,000–$78,000, recently dropping below $77,000 again, hovering near the 100-day moving average in the short term.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages can be used as short-term references:
- In a bear market, rebounds near these two lines often face resistance;
- In a bull market, pullbacks near these two lines often find support.
But don't apply this mechanically; the key is whether there is volume to break above or below these lines.
Three short-term scenarios:
1. US-Iran easing → risk sentiment recovers, $BTC has a chance to stabilize near the 100-day moving average;
2. Fighting while negotiating → continued volatility with repeated shakeouts;
3. Conflict escalation → possibly another drop, but near the 200-day moving average, around $73,000, will be a more worthwhile bottom-fishing zone.
I am more optimistic in the medium term. Historical data shows that in the six months after the US midterm elections, the S&P 500 mostly rises, with an average gain of about 16.6%. This doesn't mean that if the US stock market rises, Bitcoin will definitely rise, but at least it indicates a reduced risk of a major US stock market crash, which is a positive factor for BTC's subsequent recovery.
In terms of trading, watch the 100-day moving average resistance and 200-day moving average support in the short term; for the medium to long term, still consider buying in batches, avoid chasing highs, and don't panic sell.Major macro event incoming! The midterm election boot has not yet dropped, and BTC stands at a crossroads of directional choice.
The U.S. midterm election voting has begun, and Bitcoin has retreated to around $76,500. The sentiment of tech stock adjustments continues to transmit to the crypto market. On the capital side, an extreme reversal drama is playing out: from October 26–29, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $441 million, but on October 30 alone, there was a large net outflow of $643 million, clearly showing huge institutional long-short divergence and unstable buying pressure.
📊 Reviewing history, after the previous three midterm elections, BTC followed a highly similar trajectory: first a pullback to digest risk, then a rebound lasting about a year. The sample average maximum drawdown was about 38%, and the average increase one year after the election was 54%. If only doing scenario simulation, the corresponding phase low is about $47,400, and the estimated position one year later is $117,700; ⚠️ history will not simply repeat, this is for reference only and not a market prediction.
💡 What truly determines BTC’s subsequent trend is not the election result itself! The core points to watch are: changes in regulatory policy expectations, whether ETF funds can return to net inflows, and the strength of buying support at the pullback level.
Once negative news lands combined with capital inflow, the market may see a rebound; if policy concerns persist and ETF outflows continue, downward pressure remains.
Short-term advice is to patiently wait for signs of market stabilization, plan funds carefully, and always pay attention to trading risks #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 "Is the benefit of asset recovery turning into a death sentence? CORE's trust fracture is hard to mend, yet AI optical communication remains fervent"
On one side, AI technology is blazing like a fire fueled by oil; on the other, trust in public chain governance is collapsing. The market's joys and sorrows do not align.
🔥 The AI sector continues to surge: Marvell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, heavily investing in AI optical communication infrastructure. This indicates that external capital's enthusiasm for AI foundational computing power infrastructure remains undiminished, with giants accelerating their territorial expansion.
⚠️ CORE's "positive" turns "negative":
The hard fork recovered 68.15 million CORE tokens, which sounds like great news? But the market responded with a harsh slap via a drop of over 6%. Why? Because although transactions were not rolled back, the attack records remain permanently on the chain. The technology was fixed, but trust was broken. More importantly, these 68.15 million tokens have only been transferred to a recovery address and have not been distributed to the affected users—this huge invisible landmine could explode into massive selling pressure at any time.
Operational advice:
Amid the macro storm of the upcoming midterm elections, market sentiment is extremely fragile. CORE holders, immediately check your holdings list and reset your stop-loss points! Focus only on the current core support; as long as support holds, there is a chance for recovery; once broken, be sure to retreat decisively. Do not blindly increase your position driven by this "asset recovery benefit" hype—the outcome of catching a flying knife is often disastrous. Funds are flowing out; why would you play the savior?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba has granted the government certain authorities to negotiate with the U.S., seeking to end the Middle East conflict. The Iranian Foreign Minister immediately proposed a "two-day plan": on the first day, the U.S. fulfills its commitments; on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz reopens and shipping resumes. On the surface, compressing from "seven days" to "two days" seems to significantly accelerate the reopening.
But the actual threshold has not lowered; it has risen. The U.S. must complete a series of actions within one day, including unfreezing Iranian funds, lifting the maritime blockade, granting oil export exemptions, and removing new sanctions. Experts point out that the time compression cuts down the U.S. preparation time, and the negotiation itself is even removed from the plan—the Strait reopening is no longer conditional on resuming negotiations but on the U.S. unilaterally fulfilling its commitments first.
The more fundamental deadlock lies in the logic of the exchange: Iran views the right of passage through the Strait as a tradable asset, while the U.S. believes international waterways should be open by default and does not recognize this as something to be bargained for. Authorizing negotiations has opened a diplomatic window, but the "two-day plan" seems more like a pressure tool rather than a genuine compromise. The reopening of Hormuz is unlikely to truly accelerate in the short term.$BTC $ZEC $SOL 法国国民议会10月30日否了两项加密“退出税”提案。 先看具体数据。第一项是I-3904号修正案，想把加密资产（包括自己拿私钥的自托管钱包）硬塞进法国现有的离境税框架里，结果55票反对、27票赞成、1票弃权，直接被毙。第二项是I-3432号，针对的是持有超过80万欧元加密资产、且过去10年里有至少6年是法国税务居民的家庭，想在他们搬走的时候对“未实现收益”收税，最终60票反对、31票赞成，同样没过。 这两项原本在10月8日已经被财政委员会原则性放行了，结果到了大会辩论阶段被按了下去。 所谓的“退出税”，核心逻辑就是防富豪跑路。你人搬去海外了，但你手上的资产增值了，哪怕没卖，税务局也当你想套现，提前扒你一层皮。这次想把加密资产纳进去，被议会拦了。 但别误会，否决这俩不等于法国不碰加密税了。预算案里还有别的口子在开，比如“把加密资产兑换成稳定币”要收税的条款已经过了，只是还没最终落地。现在议会手里还压着700多项修正案没吵完，整个2027年预算案已经拖到了11月17日的死线。 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5A historical pattern worth noting:
After past U.S. midterm elections, $BTC has always experienced a pullback.
Tomorrow marks a new round of midterm elections. Will BTC break the pattern this time, or will it decline againEpic "Blunt Knife Cutting Flesh": Bitcoin Continues to Fall, a Tragedy Directed by Greed and Fear
As of November 4, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at about $77,700, down approximately 4.7% over 7 days, with the weekly chart approaching a fifth consecutive week of decline. This round of decline is not a crash but more like a blunt knife cutting flesh: weak rebounds, scattered selling pressure, and fluctuating sentiment.
The real pressure comes from three layers.
The first layer is the aftermath of security incidents. On October 29, Binance suffered a hot wallet theft of about $6.3 billion. Although withdrawals have been gradually restored and a guarantee promised, the market remains uneasy about custody risks.
The second layer is institutional fund withdrawal. On October 30 and November 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.04 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT being the main force behind the withdrawal. Institutions can buy, but they also sell quickly.
The third layer is the resonance of macro and political factors. With the US midterm elections approaching, selling pressure on tech stocks, oil price volatility, and concerns over AI capital expenditure collectively suppress risk assets.
The problem with greed and fear is that they are both rearview mirrors. The panic index dropping to 26 does not mean the bottom has been reached; it only means the price has already fallen through a cycle. What truly determines the direction is whether ETF funds will flow back, whether the $76,300–$76,500 range can hold, and whether it can regain footing above $78,000.
This tragedy is not that the emotions have finished playing out, but that the emotions are still unfolding and the chips have not yet fully changed hands. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ My core view is: Circle's stablecoin growth indeed has the potential to translate into revenue growth, but USDC scale growth does not equal profit growth at the same rate.
The most important focus of this earnings report is not the USDC issuance volume itself, but three variables:
Whether USDC circulation growth continues.
Whether interest income generated by reserve assets can be maintained.
How much revenue is taken by distribution partners like Coinbase.
Among these, the third point is especially important. Circle's revenue growth and the profit ultimately received by shareholders are not the same thing.U.S. midterm elections, what elections and what results? How will it affect the U.S. stock market? An infographic to analyze
I'm trading SNDK, how about you? $SUI is facing monthly unlocks of tens of millions, yet the retail long-short ratio can still be pushed above 2.1.
The project team only buys back 1 million tokens annually, like scooping water out of a leaking boat with a small spoon? The spot price simply can't rise; it's all bulls using leverage to rush ahead.
With no real consumption or burn, under such market conditions, liquidating retail leverage with a spike is just a matter of the whales flicking their fingers. The previous low of 0.82 probably won't hold for long.
#SUI
$SUI
👇$IRYS This rebound looks impressive, but the order book is actually extremely weak.
The price rose by 64%, yet the trading volume plummeted by 85%.
There is basically no capital entering to catch the dip; it's purely a thin order book being forcibly pulled up.
Above, there is a pile of trapped holders stubbornly holding on; if the buying stops even briefly, it could immediately reverse and crash through.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇I've always been puzzled: whenever there's talk of cutting aid or trouble brewing, should I first buy some hard assets?
But every time the news comes out, the first to drop are the coins. This time is no different. Trump said he wants to end security aid to Israel; Israel was clueless, saying they hadn't even received the documents, yet the market ran first out of caution.
Later I realized, what falls isn't faith, but leverage. People who have multiplied their positions, upon hearing news that can't be priced, their first move is to reduce positions to survive. Whether you believe in Bitcoin or not doesn't matter. $BTC often takes the first hit from its own people.
So when this kind of news comes out, I don't rush to chase. I wait for those forced liquidations to finish before looking for direction. Israeli officials and defense agencies are now very concerned because Trump said that security aid to Israel is about to end. But the most notable thing about this whole matter is not the statement itself, but that Israel has not yet received any formal documents.
Security aid has never been a simple gift; it is the foundation of the US-Israel military procurement agreements. Israel's Channel 12 said this decision will affect the military procurement agreements between the two countries and also impact the Israeli Defense Forces' procurement plans. Even Israel's own defense department cannot clearly explain the meaning or implementation timeline of Trump's statement.
This creates a typical uncertainty gap: the direction is known, but the boundaries are not. What the market fears most is never bad news, but news that cannot be priced.
The transmission path is also very clear. Such events first hit risk premiums, not fundamentals. $BTC often moves first because it is treated both as a risk asset and a safe haven asset, attracting funds from both sides; $ETH and $SOL have greater elasticity, with their rises and falls amplified. But it should be noted that $BTC's reaction is emotion-based pricing, not a fundamental revaluation.
My judgment is twofold. If it is just a statement, it is closer to a bargaining chip, and risk assets will recover their losses within a few days. If it really materializes into a document and is written into the budget, then it is structural, and the Middle East arms procurement chain and the credibility of US fiscal commitments will need to be recalculated.
So what really needs to be watched is not what Trump said, but whether there is that piece of paper. Statements without documents can be withdrawn at any time; policies with documents require portfolio adjustments. 上一轮三个方向，一个赢两个输。BTC从77,668.49到77,795.30、+0.16%盈，止盈78,630和止损77,092一个没碰；XRP从1.2827到1.2803、-0.19%；TRX从0.323390到0.321950、-0.44%。三单里中一个，止盈止损都没被扫到。方向和仓位我一个不改，理由在下面。 投票已经开投，票还没数完。市场给民主党横扫两院开的赔率是七成，期权那头更直接：11月4日到期的隐含波动率报43.5%，比后面几个期限整整高出7个点——这是给投票夜买保险，不是给趋势定价。我翻过过去三个完整选举周期，一年期回报都是正的，但没有一次是一路向上，结果落地后的头几周先洗一遍仓位是常态。2022年11月那场信任崩塌之后，是两周下跌加三个月横盘；这次不一样在那颗63亿美元的雷当天就被吞掉了，76,300砸下去只留了一根下影线。 资金面的账很难看：两个交易日现货产品被赎回合计约10.4亿美元，其中一只头部机构的基金单日流出4.05亿、是6月以来最大的一笔，全行业基金总持仓跌破千亿美元。可价格从76,455爬回77,800上方。钱在走、价在涨，接货的不是这些通道里的钱。这里有Triple-line hedging is not a free pass: Big Brother Maji's tough ledger
Big Brother Maji is toughly holding the market with a massive long-short combination: $BTC short, $ETH long, $HYPE short advancing on three fronts, with a total margin of about 5,698,000 U and a total position value of about 62,980,000 U, maximizing the intensity of the game.
The BTC short is the "profit cushion" in the portfolio: 40X full position, holding -249.9 BTC, opening average price 78,104.1 U, unrealized profit +325,700 U, funding fee +166,300 U, liquidation price 103,059.49 U. The ETH long is under pressure: 25X full position, holding 9,823.81 ETH, opening average price 2,427.28 U, unrealized loss -1,722,900 U, funding fee -82,200 U, liquidation price 1,561.77 U. The HYPE short is the main source of loss: 5X full position, holding -259,600 HYPE, opening average price 72.8005 U, unrealized loss -2,765,900 U, funding fee +1,203,000 U, liquidation price 106.72 U.
Roughly summed up, unrealized P&L is about -4,163,100 U, funding fee about +1,287,100 U, still an unrealized loss after hedging. The money earned from the BTC short is being swallowed by the ETH long and HYPE short. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $SOL
8567 SOL tokens. This batch of coins was transferred from the stolen funds address to Privacy Cash this morning, clearly visible on-chain.
At the same time, 1WIN's TGE running on Solana saw a subscription of 61.02 million USDC, oversubscribed by 15.6 times. While some are laundering, others are rushing to grab shares.
Price is 93.34, 1.3% higher than yesterday's opening, just 0.60 away from the 24-hour high of 93.91.
I'm watching the volume. At 10 PM last night, the hourly candle showed 580,000 trades; the latest candle shows 31,131 trades, shrinking nearly twentyfold in nine hours, yet the price remains steady between 93.3 and 93.9.
Open interest is $336 million, with positive funding rates—longs are paying to support shorts.
I'm not chasing this move. Those laundering are selling, those grabbing quotas are buying; neither side is in a hurry. When volume empties, whoever acts first sets the direction. I'll wait until trades exceed 200,000 again before watching.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Short positions account for more than half, but the real pricing factor is not the long-short ratio, it's the number on Friday night
All three coins have a short position advantage, which easily makes people think that "following the trend to short" is a natural choice. But first, take a look at the macro background: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is already priced at about 75%, with only 25% left for no change. Under this denominator, the overall bearish bias in the crypto market is not "sentiment," but a result of interest rate expectations.
The problem is, between "shorts dominating" and "being able to push the price down," there is a layer of position structure. In the past 24 hours, BTC long liquidations were 203 million, while shorts were only 17.2 million, a brutal long squeeze; but open interest barely moved, and the funding rate remains at a positive premium of +0.65%, with a long-short position ratio of 65/35 still favoring the long side. Long positions were liquidated, but leverage was not cleared—when one batch falls, someone immediately fills the same position. This means BTC's short advantage is an "on-paper advantage," not a "fuel advantage."
ETH is more subtle. The funding rate turned negative to -0.0054%, shorts started paying fees, and short-term sentiment is indeed weak; but open interest still has about 71.94 million contracts, with leverage piled up and not withdrawn. Shorts hold 56.79% while also bearing holding costs. The more crowded the shorts, the greater the elasticity of the reverse sweep.
So "shorting at this position is not cost-effective" is correct, but the reason is not "too many shorts," rather the nonfarm payroll on Friday is the real directional arbiter. October's new job additions are expected at 65,000, previous value 29,000. Just now, both speakers were turned down together. Around 05—06, BTC touched 78000, and ETH almost reached 2300. In the next hour, neither side reached the previous high again, closing slightly lower, and the trading volume also dropped together.
According to OKX spot data, from 06—07, BTC trading volume was about 20% less than the previous hour, and ETH was down by more than 20%. The hourly volatility on both sides narrowed, but placing this closing back into the 00:00 to 04:00 range, the difference remains. BTC closed at 77880, just 24.6 USDT below that highest price segment; ETH closed at 2293.29, still below the midpoint of its range.
I will treat this as a pause after a surge. Both coins are quiet together, but they may not choose the same direction. If BTC later also closes below the midpoint of the previous four hours, this positional advantage will fade. If ETH first recovers its midpoint, then the gap between the two will show signs of narrowing. Data is as of 07:00 Beijing time on November 4; the new hourly and current four-hour candles have not closed yet. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.$CORE CORE is now completely a pile of useless mud that can't be helped. On-chain data shows transactions flying fast, with 34,000 transactions in a single day, but guess how much the DEX trading volume is? Less than $150. This isn't even wash trading; it's pure empty self-entertainment.
The buy orders have long been drained, and even a little selling pressure is a bottomless pit, with order book support thinner than paper. The most critical issue is the 166 million "untraceable" ghost tokens still hanging overhead. Exchanges are shutting down one by one, the main players don't even bother to pretend anymore, just shuffling assets left to right to keep the lifeline alive. Don't catch the falling knife.
#CORE
$CORE
👇Fear and Greed Index at 27, down 11 points from yesterday. 📉 Sentiment has entered the "fear" zone, but fear itself does not constitute a bottom signal. BTC is currently around $77,000**, down 1.74% in 24H, daily low at **$76,641, with a 24H spot net outflow of $81.58M, weekly spot net outflow of **$488.59M**, and weekly contract outflow of $3.00B**—outflows are narrowing but have not turned positive. Price remains below MA(5) $77.39K and MA(10) $78.73K, structure not yet repaired. On the ETF side, on November 2, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of **$399M, with BlackRock IBIT withdrawing $405M in a single day. ETH is relatively resilient, currently around $2,300**, up 1.18% in 24H, daily low at **$2,242 but recovered. However, the capital flow is not supportive: ETH spot ETF has had net outflows for 6 consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of $140M on November 2**, ETHA accounting for **$138M. Price rebound and ETF bleeding are happening simultaneously, raising questions about sustainability. SOL is around $93.5, basically flat in 24H, but the liquidation structure is extremely skewed: over 90% of 24H total SOL liquidations are longs, with shorts only about $2.5M. Longs are crowded, the fuel for the rebound is in Has $BTC $ETH pulled through? Can the ICU tube be removed or should it be transferred to a general ward!
"Snapshot of Chips in the Squeeze Market"
Currently, the daily chart is oscillating back and forth on a flat needle, with a chip wall above and support piles below, the price rubbing back and forth in the middle
First, look at the 24-hour concentration zone below: BTC 76236.7, funds 44,062,700, -0.73% from current price; ETH 2233.08, 10,697,500, -0.76%; SOL 90.69, 4,911,400, -0.97%. Close support clusters make it easy to find backing when falling
Above is not empty either: BTC current price 76798, upper concentration at 78721.3, 42,124,600, +2.50%; ETH current price 2250.27, upper 2297.66, 20,388,100, +2.11%; SOL current price 91.58, upper 95.26, 6,116,600, +4.02%. The chip concentration overhead is also dense
The squeeze has not broken yet, with many short-term disturbance windows back and forth. Focus on which edge loosens first, don’t chase shadows, be cautious catching flying knives!
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Historical benchmark is somewhat positive: In the 12 months following 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 posted positive returns every time, with an average gain of about 15%; however, the process was not smooth. In 11 of these 19 cycles, there were drawdowns exceeding 10%, and the median low point often occurred about 5 weeks before the election. The election outcome mainly serves to "end uncertainty" rather than "create a bottom." Sector-wise, in the three months after the election, Information Technology, Real Estate, and Communication Services showed relatively outstanding average returns, reflecting a phase of risk appetite returning.
But 2026 presents a key difference: suppressing factors are not limited to the election. Currently, the U.S. stock market faces triple headwinds from AI capital expenditure concerns, midterm elections, and liquidity tightening, with liquidity considered the greatest risk. The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, but the market still prices in a high probability of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated. HSBC warns that historical patterns may mislead this time, as risks like excessive AI investment and Middle East tensions persist.
The impact of the election result itself on direction is also overestimated. In cases of divided government, the average gain one year after the election is about 15%.
In summary: For the U.S. stock market after midterm elections, historical patterns provide a probabilistic advantage, not a smooth upward line. The record of positive returns in the 12 months post-election is striking, but double-digit drawdowns mid-cycle are normal. What truly determines the height of the trend is not which party controls Congress, but whether the Fed hikes rates in December and whether AI capital expenditures can translate into profits. The election gives the market a "breather," but how long it lasts depends on macro variables.I always thought that when short on money, bonds would be issued, but I didn't expect the Treasury to buy bonds back. On November 4th, it plans to spend up to $6 billion to buy back some 10- to 20-year government bonds.
Sounds impressive, but this amount is actually tiny in the government bond market. It's more like a signal saying: I'm keeping an eye on the long end.
As for whether $BTC will rise because of this, don't overthink it. A bit more liquidity is good, but $6 billion won't move a big market. If you want to get a feel for it, you have to see if there's another round coming.On November 4th, the U.S. Treasury plans to repurchase up to $6 billion of 10- to 20-year Treasury bonds. The scale is not large, but the direction is worth noting — this means the Treasury is injecting money into the market, not withdrawing it.
First, let's look at the focus. The $6 billion will be used to buy medium- to long-term old bonds with maturities of 10 to 20 years, not short-term overnight bonds. The medium- to long-term segment is precisely where liquidity is thinnest and where selling often causes sharp price drops. By using cash to buy back these old bonds, the Treasury is effectively cushioning the most fragile part of the entire yield curve.
To clarify the mechanism: this is debt management, not monetary policy. The Treasury's repurchase of outstanding bonds moves money from the Treasury account to bondholders, increasing cash in the market slightly and pushing down long-term yields a bit. It will not cut interest rates or expand the balance sheet, but it does ease the cost of money marginally.
For crypto, this is a marginal variable, not a driving force. $BTC is most sensitive to liquidity and often reacts first to such moves; $ETH follows risk appetite and needs the stock market to cooperate; $SOL is the most volatile, rising quickly and falling quickly. The real determinant of direction remains how interest rates move afterward.
One point worth considering: $6 billion in the U.S. Treasury market is barely a drop in the bucket. So the value of this round of repurchases lies not in the scale but in the fact that the Treasury is willing to act on the long end. The market reads the attitude, not the amount.#تقرير أرباح Circle على الأبواب، هل يمكن لنمو العملات المستقرة أن يحقق عوائد؟ The market doesn't lie: The positives and pitfalls of three coins🌊
$TRX On-chain volume is brisk, but the market looks calm. About $242 million stolen funds were laundered through the TRON channel in two days, with turnover ten times the hacker's holdings, yet the price remains steady; more troubling is that about 475 million TRX are still held by the hacker, and a slow sell-off is the real risk.🧨
$UNI The rise has two drivers: DEX market share grab, and protocol revenue plus burn expectations; an 18% weekly gain shows capital favors stories with "cash flow." But the sell wall is real too: hackers have cashed out about $22.8 million via swaps, with 3.16 million tokens still to be dealt with. The narrative pushes up, while chips press down.⚖️
$LIT License expectations lead the rally: near the top of gainers, FDV about $3.4 billion, planning to apply to the CFTC in November; if approved, it will be a compliant on-chain perpetual in the US. But the contract reveals another side: 50% of team and investor tokens locked until December, then linearly released over three years; buying above $3 is buying expectations, after December supply pressure awaits.🎢
Summary: Watch $TRX at 0.30 and hacker holdings, $UNI at $7 to see if the sell wall is absorbed, and $LIT for overextended expectations above $3.📌Bithumb 一纸公告，CORE 持有者的心跳是不是漏了半拍？ 如果明天 OKX 也跟进，你手里的 CORE 还拿得住吗？ 早上刷到 Bithumb 停止支持 CORE 交易对的消息时，我盯着盘口愣了几秒。不是因为仓位多大，而是那种"交易通道在收窄"的实感，比一根阴线更让人警觉。原文其实说得很克制：OKX 还没发公告，只是假设。但市场从来不是等公告才动的，它交易的是预期，是"下一个会不会轮到我"的恐惧。 先把事实摆清楚。Bithumb 宣布的是停止交易支持，不是项目归零，也不是链上资产消失。这两者差别很大，但盘面往往先按最坏情况定价。CORE 这类依赖中心化交易所入口的资产，一旦主渠道减少，最先受影响的是买卖深度，接着是报价滑点，最后才是持有者的心理防线。你会发现，真正被重定价的不是代币本身，而是"退出路径的便利性"。 这里有个容易被忽略的第二层传导。交易所下架或停支持，短期砸的是 CORE 的现货情绪，但中期会改变一类资金的偏好：做市商不愿意在通道不确定的标的里留库存，量化策略会把这类币从白名单里挪走，连带着山寨板块里"靠单一平台流量吃饭"的项目都会被重新审视。BTC 和 ETH What does the Binance hack incident illustrate? What lessons does it offer?
This largest-ever coin theft at Binance shatters the illusion of absolute security at top exchanges. The hacker did not break private keys but gained internal permissions and exploited the EIP‑7702 authorization mechanism to transfer funds. This reveals that custody security weaknesses often lie in personnel, permissions, and processes, and even the largest platforms face single points of failure risk.
The underlying mechanisms of different tokens determine vastly different fates after theft: stablecoins have issuer freeze permissions to block and limit losses; governance tokens like SNX can be recovered through contract permissions; pure PoW coins like BTC, ZEC, and RVN have no centralized switch, making on-chain confirmed transactions nearly irreversible.
Custody is only a platform’s credit endorsement, not true ownership of your assets. For long-term holdings, self-custody is preferable; exchanges should only hold short-term trading funds. Do not place all your chips on a single platform.
The fundamental logic of inflation and scarcity also manifests in security incidents: coins with a hard cap rely on consensus and computing power for value; coins with unlimited issuance face not only custody risks but also ongoing long-term pressure from dilution. The big short position holder on the $SOL chain hasn't withdrawn yet; the liquidation line for 250,000 SOL is stuck firmly at 123.
With such an obvious target hanging on the chain, how could the main forces on the market let it go? Large spot funds below are continuously supporting the price, and the long leverage in the market has mostly been washed out.
As soon as it pushes up a bit and triggers a forced liquidation, a huge passive buy order will directly crash into the market. Each of these people will be carried out one by one.
The shorts are purely holding on by tough talk this round; it's almost time for the buy orders to settle.
#SOL
$SOL
👇
三个币同步反弹，头顶都压着空单。脚下却分三路：ETH 下头空头被清、上空被周期认，多头在推；BTC 多头反被清、仓还在撤，反弹没人接；SOL 清算额小一个量级，上空诱多不认。
$BTC ｜阻力 78,230｜支撑 76,440
BTC 上空 78,230 离现价 0.50%、贴脸，可周期只认下行、不认这波上行，下多 76,440 离 1.80% 反而被周期认得更实。上下清算额几乎对称，各约 2,100 万。4 小时布林中轨上 0.37%、带宽 2.81%、振幅 0.70% 极小，价横着没动。可仓 24 小时撤了 1.29%、近 14 笔爆仓里多头占九成五，大户偏空、散户接，反弹是没人接的空拉。上空贴脸但没真碰到，脚下那侧更沉。
$ETH ｜阻力 2,322｜支撑 2,276
ETH 下多 2,276 贴着现价 0.72%、可周期不认下行，上空 2,322 离 1.28% 反被周期认，上下清算额各约 2,078 万。4 小时布林中轨上 0.80%、带宽 3.13%、振幅 0.89%，价在中轨上。仓 24 小时加了 2.40%、量比 3.05 明显放量，近 10 笔爆仓里空头占