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⚠️Risk Warning: This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.
With the release of CPI data, many are worried about a major drop in $BTC😨
Let's calmly look at the essence: the trouble this time is that the core CPI simultaneously rose to 2.6%. The increase is not solely driven by oil prices; internal core prices are also rising, making inflationary pressure more stubborn.
After the data release, BTC quickly fell from 83900 to around 81850. Core CPI month-over-month was 0.3%, higher than the market estimate of 0.2%, and year-over-year at 2.6%, also surpassing the 2.5% expectation. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield rose directly by 13 basis points, and the market's probability expectation for an October rate hike surged from less than 22% to over 50%🔥
The short-term market logic is very clear: liquidity tightening expectations lead to capital withdrawal, combined with panic selling, and in a strengthening dollar environment, risk assets are collectively under pressure. Key support to watch below is the 81500–80000 range; if broken, the next support is at 79000. Resistance above is in the 83000–83500 range.
In terms of operations, do not rush to buy the dip; the spike and shakeout will likely continue. You can wait for the price to pull back near 81000 and show volume-based stabilization signals before considering light long positions, with a stop loss at 79800 and a rebound target of 82700–83500. Persistently high core inflation is currently the biggest bearish factor, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish confidence remains strong🦅
Expectations are heating up, and the market continues to be under pressure
$BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins TSMC's Q3 exploded again, with a net profit of 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, hitting a historic high. But the crypto world hasn't gained a single cent from it. $BTC 82,430, $ETH 2,400, $ZEC 1,147, all just stuck in place.
I think the most painful thing for the crypto world about TSMC's huge earnings isn't that the "positive news hasn't been transmitted," but that even the "AI narrative soup" is almost out of reach.
TSMC's HPC (High-Performance Computing) now accounts for 68% of revenue, and 3nm and 5nm processes consume 70% of advanced process capacity. AI giants are lining up to grab chips, but the crypto crowd can't even get in line.
Bitcoin has been stuck around 82,000 for a week, funding rate +0.0029%, both bulls and bears are too lazy to move. Like a transfer student forgotten by the homeroom teacher, making no mistakes but also not getting any gold stars.
Ethereum's RSI is neutral. I have no position, but watching SOL and Dogecoin bouncing around nearby, ETH looks like a well-behaved kid, all the excitement belongs to others.
ZEC saw $1.89 million in short positions explode in 24 hours. Grayscale's ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in size, NU7 upgrade countdown underway. This guy is quietly having a private meal in the corner, basically decoupled from the broader market.
I think the best thing to do now is to hold your hands. TSMC's capital expenditure is smashed to $60-64 billion, all the money going into AI infrastructure, not crypto. Wait for this AI spending wave to pass, then see where the water level rises. #TSMCQ3NetProfitExceedsExpectations, Profit Hits Historic High
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 So if I were to take SNDK, I might prefer it around 1000-1100. Also, this wave of correction feels like it could only hold up to 1400-1450 at most. $SNDK SanDisk｜The 1372 level was pierced pre-market, but my judgment criteria only consider the daily closing pattern. Since the close did not reclaim this level, the subsequent target is 1157.
The previous price was 28 points away from the target, which I judged as not a valid touch; today, after a pre-market surge to 1341, it successfully reached 1372. However, trading discipline remains strict: a brief intraday break is not considered a valid breakout; we must wait for the daily close. If the close does not reclaim 1372, support failure is confirmed.
The market signals are very clear. The previous day attempted to hold above 1420 but never returned above 1500, and weakness continued after the open. This round of decline in the storage sector is not a short-term shakeout but a trend pullback.
1372, as a core daily-level support, has now been probed and pierced pre-market. At this stage, I will not blindly enter to catch the bottom. Until a clear stop-fall signal appears, every rebound should be treated primarily as an opportunity to reduce losses, not as a trend reversal.
If the daily close recovers above 1372: this defines an oversold rebound market, with the first resistance at 1420 and stronger resistance at 1500. If 1500 cannot be held, the overall direction remains bearish.
If the daily close confirms a break below 1372: the next downside target is 1157, with significant downward space from 1341 to 1157.
The trend has not shown reversal signals, so do not subjectively guess the bottom. For the market to truly strengthen, it must first reclaim 1372 and then break through 1500. The entire process remains a downtrend $SNDK #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix Q3 earnings report will be released after market close on October 20.
The company's baseline: revenue of 12.86 billion, operating profit margin of 33.2%.
Advertising business is a highlight, but only a patch, unlikely to reverse the overall growth slowdown.
Currently, 69% of the market predicts it will exceed expectations; optimism is already maxed out.
Meeting expectations ≠ exceeding expectations; to get a Yes, membership or advertising business must significantly surpass market imagination.
On the profit and loss ratio, No has the advantage.
⚠️Personal observation, not trading advice #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight; earnings report might not look very good#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind the.CPI的冲击刚消化完，PPI数据再度超预期发难⚡
下午$ETH好不容易从2315的低位慢慢回暖，反弹站上2400上方，原本我计划等价格在2400-2450区间涨势停滞，再进场第二笔空单。没想到晚间PPI数据一出，这轮短暂的回升直接被打断。
这次数据明显超出市场预估：PPI年率来到6.3%，此前市场预期只有5.3%，创下近五个月新高；月率录得1.3%，对比0.5%的预期直接大幅走高，零售数据0.8%同样强于预期。
CPI、PPI接连爆冷，而PPI代表上游生产成本，它的走强意味着通胀压力还会持续向下传导，短期通胀很难回落。同时零售数据亮眼，代表经济韧性仍在，美联储没有充足的理由转向宽松。这也是我持续看空盘面的核心逻辑。
$BTC 这边81000、80000两道支撑岌岌可危，ETH下午这一波反弹，在重磅数据压制下，更像是给空头提供入场机会。过去24小时已经有18.5万人遭遇爆仓，爆仓金额9.8亿美金，绝大多数都是多头订单。
首笔空单176点利润已经顺利落袋，接下来继续等反弹机会，只要上涨乏力，第二笔空单顺势跟进。
#通胀数据接连爆表，盘面承压继续考验支撑
$ETH $BTC $OKB previously frankly had a premium due to a launch event. Thought perps had some big positive news to consume OKB, but in the end found out it had nothing to do with it, directly a big negative.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Only a few days remain until streaming giant Netflix announces its Q3 earnings—on October 20 after the US market closes, the answer will be revealed.
📊 First, let's look at the company's "reference answers":
▪️ Revenue forecast: about $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year-over-year
▪️ Operating margin: 33.2%, compared to just 28.2% in the same period last year
🔍 But what the market is really watching are these two questions:
1️⃣ Is growth really about to "slow down"?
A 12% growth rate is no longer impressive for Netflix. With user growth gradually peaking and multiple price hikes, how long can price increases continue to support growth? This is the biggest market concern.
2️⃣ Can the advertising business become the "second curve"?
This is the biggest highlight of this earnings report! How many subscribers are on ad-supported plans? How much does advertising revenue contribute? Has ARPU (average revenue per user) truly been boosted? Once these "hard data" are disclosed, they will directly determine whether Netflix's future growth story holds up.
💡 What’s the outlook?
On paper, revenue is steady and profit margins hit new highs—the data looks great. But the key question is whether the 33.2% high profit margin is "saved" or "earned"? If it comes from cutting content investment, then Q4 guidance may disappoint investors.
Therefore, the core of this earnings report is not "whether they made money," but rather—does the advertising business really work? $CORE ✅Top 5 Core Bearish Reasons from Overseas Traders, X (Twitter), and Overseas Research Reports 1. Fundamental Flaw in Token Emission Model (Most Commonly Mentioned Overseas) Overseas users highly value tokenomics: CORE’s BTC staking system continuously issues new CORE tokens as rewards for every BTC staked, flooding the circulating market with new tokens. In contrast to STX: STX’s bonding mechanism involves BTC coming in, locking STX, and reducing circulation. Overseas community conclusion: CORE’s token model is inflation-driven; the larger the BTCFi business, the greater the selling pressure on CORE. Supply and demand are naturally inverse, putting long-term price support under pressure. 2. Large Unlocks + Continuous Release of Early Holdings CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with a long unlocking period and token rewards released continuously over 81 years. Overseas on-chain data enthusiasts have been monitoring long-term: validator rewards, early investors, and team shares are continuously unlocking and flowing out; Moreover, in September, a validator exploit allowed some to claim excess CORE rewards. Although the project team urgently fixed it, overseas traders remain seriously concerned: the token issuance rules have vulnerabilities, posing risks of unexpected over-issuance and damaging trust. 3. Liquidity Continues to Shrink, Multiple Exchanges Delisting Overseas community statistics: many small and medium exchanges have already delisted CORE spot trading; Order book depth is thinning, slippage is huge, and trading volume in the last two days has shrunk directly to less than $1 million. Overseas traders’ view: liquidity is the foundation of the coin price, and buy-side support is increasingly八万附近不追空，是三马哥这场最坚定的判断；但看多，也不等于所有多单都应该硬扛。@三马哥本哥 一边把BTC八万一线视为重要支撑，一边反复要求仓位过重、强平位置太近的人，利用反弹先退出大部分仓位。方向上的信心，不能替代账户承受回撤的能力。
先看$BTC。他认为，八万附近即使被短暂跌破，也可能只是扫掉止损后重新收回，不宜看见整数位失守就追空。这是他当晚做多的出发点，不是对八万永不失守的保证。盘中价格反复测试这一带，他仍按支撑区的思路处理，并给出80188附近的多头尝试；另一个较低挂单没有精准成交，也不能把擦边经过写成已经吃到。
这场的变化，在于反弹出现以后怎么处理。前段他谈过81200附近先退出、再观察换手；后段反弹走出来，他把82000至82588一带作为分批兑现和观察压力的区域，并把更上方的84000作为后续重点。相同的看多方向，盘中执行并不是从头到尾一张不动的挂单表。
尤其是已经有多单、又在低位继续加仓的人，他多次要求先减一半。对于回到成本附近仍明显重仓的账户，减仓要求进一步提高到70%以上。原因很直接：同样一次震荡，轻仓账户可以等结构，重仓账户却可能在判断兑现之前先碰到强平线。$BTC just lost $966M in leveraged longs but the bigger signal is who isn’t selling September PPI jumped 1.3% vs 0.6% expected, while CPI hit 3.7% YoY raising Fed rate-hike concerns BTC dipped to $80.2K as spot ETFs saw $261M in outflows and risk-off sentiment intensified Meanwhile whales are buying while retail sells, and long-term holder realized losses have fallen 85% My view: Not capitulation yet, but risk remains high Below $80K $78K, then $75K Holding $80K could help absorb the inflation 美联储的剧本可能要被撕了。
6月那场会议，18位委员交了利率预期，主席自己没交。他的说法是，同事们的预测是铅笔写的，带大橡皮。
通讯改革工作组已经在审查前瞻指引、点阵图和纪要到底该不该留。不是立刻废，是先看值不值。
没有官方指引，市场只能盯CPI、非农、美债和美元，数据说话，没人提前透题。$BTC $ETH 的定价会更碎更急。Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! The capital flow direction has turned!
Latest data: On Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $175.6 million, hitting the highest single-day level since October 2; Ethereum spot ETF also had a net inflow of $24.8 million, temporarily ending a 10-day streak of net outflows.
Funds were still withdrawing the day before, but today there is capital replenishment, switching speed is very fast. What’s more worth noting is that despite hotter-than-expected CPI data and disrupted rate cut expectations, BTC was not broken down, indicating support at the lower end.
My judgment: Short-term sentiment is recovering, but a single day of inflow cannot yet be considered a trend. The focus next is on three points: first, whether net inflows can continue; second, whether trading volume expands simultaneously; third, whether macro pressure will return. If inflows continue for two or three days, confidence will be more solid; if it’s just a pulse, the market may still fluctuate.
Don’t rush, wait for confirmation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Recently, I came across a set of BTC historical data that I found quite interesting. Someone noticed that after the past several U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has experienced a phase low for a period of time. 📊 According to historical statistics: 🔹 2014: About 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2018: About 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2022: About 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. From 71 days to 39 days, then to 13 days, the time seems to be getting shorter. Seeing this, many might wonder: Could BTC also bottom out quickly after the 2026 midterm election? 🤔 Honestly, this pattern is indeed interesting, but I think it can't be directly applied. First, just because a similar trend appeared three times in history doesn't mean it will repeat the fourth time. The market environments in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were not the same. The Federal Reserve policies, global liquidity, institutional participation levels, and even BTC's own market size have all changed significantly. More importantly, the way historical lows are selected also affects the statistical results. 📉 Secondly, I pay more attention to the capital changes when BTC declines. Here is an indicator worth observing: Open Interest (OI). If BTC falls and OI significantly decreases, it may indicate some leveraged positions are exiting. But if the price keeps falling and OI increases instead, further judgment is needed to determine if new short capital is entering. Of course, based on OPolygon has completed the acquisition of Coinme, integrating the US dollar on/off ramp into its own payment services. The official announcement on October 14 stated that the service covers 48 states, composed of 37 state-level money transmitter licenses and exemptions applicable in 11 states, not 48 licenses in total.
The first beneficiaries are payment companies and multinational payroll enterprises. Previously, they had to separately connect bank deposits, on-chain transfers, and local currency withdrawals. Now, they can connect through a single service, reducing handoffs between vendors. The first batch of clients includes Tazapay, Mesh, Toku, and Kira.
For example, with Toku, after employees receive stablecoins, they can deposit into wallets and exchange for local currency within the same payroll process. Fewer service providers to switch between may reduce waiting and operational costs; the actual savings depend on fees, arrival speed, and local availability.
This is generally positive for Polygon's payment business, but the announcement did not disclose new transaction volumes or POL purchase arrangements. Payment services are regulated, but this does not mean the POL token has regulatory endorsement. Future developments will depend on the actual payment scale and how much usage converts into fee demand on the Polygon chain.
Source and images: Polygon official website acquisition completion announcement on 10/14, reviewed on 10/16. Below, POL refers to the spot market price of the Polygon token. $POL #Tesla Delivery Exceeds Expectations, Profit Recovery Becomes the Focus Recently, Tesla has once again become the center of market attention. The third-quarter vehicle delivery performance exceeded market expectations, and many are starting to look forward to the upcoming earnings report bringing surprises. But honestly, I feel that good delivery numbers don’t necessarily mean the earnings report will be impressive. 🤔 Why do I say that? Because the number of cars sold and the actual money earned are two completely different things. 📊 Let’s start with the automotive business. Tesla can stimulate sales through price cuts and promotions, but if the profit per vehicle decreases, even if deliveries exceed expectations, overall profits may not grow accordingly. What I’m most focused on this time is whether the automotive business gross margin can improve. After all, what the market wants to see now is not just how many cars Tesla can sell, but how much money it can make. 💰 Next, let’s look at the energy business. Compared to electric vehicles, the energy storage business is also a growth area worth watching for Tesla. If energy storage revenue and profits continue to improve, it could provide new growth support for the company. But how much it will contribute specifically still needs to wait for the official earnings report. 🤖 Finally, there’s Robotaxi and autonomous driving. This area indeed has room for imagination and is an important reason the market continues to focus on Tesla. However, one issue cannot be ignored: no matter how much potential future business has, it still needs to prove its value through actual commercialization progress. There may still be a long way to go between technological advancement, commercial scale, and actually generating profits. 💡 My view: This Tesla earnings report, exceeding delivery expectations is just the first step. The real market decision will be#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 🌑 深夜盘点：双通胀数据砸下来，大饼居然红了，OKB从124砸到117，ZEC在1144装死
$BTC 82169，涨0.64个点 📈
CPI和PPI双超预期，按剧本该崩，大饼反而从81888弹回82169翻红。昨天全网清算3亿多，多头被洗了一遍，抛压反而轻了。ETF上周净流出三个半月最多，但81000下面有真实买盘接。利空出尽？还是下跌中继？
$OKB 117.88，跌4.15个点 🔴
昨天CPI夜它逆势涨3个点到124，今天全吐回去还倒跌4个点。昨天说避风港，今天避风港也没保住。120整数位破了，平台币跟大盘绑太紧。
$ZEC 1144.68，涨0.09个点 🔒
隐私币在双通胀数据下几乎没动，1144横着。前几天从1223跌到1159，现在在底部磨。
$BICO 0.01703，涨1.31个点 📈
账户抽象赛道小反弹，从0.0169弹到0.017。没有独立消息，就是跟着大饼弹。
$RE 0.41571，跌0.54个点 😴
小RWA继续没人管，0.415横盘。
本文仅为行情分析，不构成投资建议。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus Recently, I saw an investor share their Netflix holdings, and honestly, it was quite interesting. As the Q3 earnings report on October 20 approaches, the market is discussing whether Netflix can once again deliver an earnings beat. But some investors have already started to worry. Revenue growth is one thing; whether the market is willing to continue assigning a high valuation is another. 🤔 📊 Let's first look at the data the market is focusing on. According to previously disclosed guidance, Netflix expects for Q3: 🔹 Revenue of about $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. 🔹 Operating margin expected to reach 33.2%. 🔹 Operating margin was 28.2% in the same period last year. At first glance, this expectation isn't bad. But the problem is, the market's demands for Netflix may no longer be just about maintaining growth. Everyone wants to know: can the advertising business truly take over and become the new growth engine? 💰 Why is the advertising business so important? Netflix's traditional subscription business is relatively mature, and relying on new paying users to achieve rapid growth may become increasingly difficult. The ad-supported tier offers another business model. Users pay a relatively lower subscription fee, and the platform generates revenue through advertising. If this model can continue to scale, Netflix has the opportunity to increase the total revenue per user. But if ad revenue growth falls short of expectations, the market may reassess the company's future growth potential. 📉 To continue最怕的剧本还是翻页了：核心CPI不降温😬
总体3.7%没太意外，油价高早就打过预防针。可核心同比2.6%，比预期2.5%还热，前值2.4%。剔掉油和食品后仍往上拱，说明成本压力已从能源扩散到服务与商品。机票、二手车、医疗、服装都在冒头。✈️👕
机票尤其关键：航油涨了几个月，终于传导到票价，通胀开始“渗透”。市场立刻重定价：月底加息押注由22%升至44%。10年期美债收益率再破5.3%，美元偏强，金银、美股期货走弱。比特币冲8.38w后掉到8.1w，8.4w依旧难破。📉
后面盯两关：10月28日美联储决议、11月公布的10月CPI。若核心继续热，钱会更紧，风险偏好更难抬头。短线大饼上方8.4w是盖子，下方8.05w是地板。🧱美联储在悄悄改规则。
沃什主张弱化甚至放弃点阵图，声明不再暗示利率路径。9月已有16位委员预期年内至少再加息一次，内部意见也不再齐整。
一旦成行，市场就得自己猜，波动从议息日分散到每个CPI、非农——美债MOVE指数已升到80.6，比6月低点高两成多。
影响最大的还是风险资产的定价逻辑，$BTC 和 $ETH 对利率最敏感，波动只会被放大。这是让市场更理性，还是更刺激？#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Sigh, placing a $CRCL order at 75 is basically impossible to fill
This price is too extreme
Tonight it quickly jumped to 83
Some are still waiting for it to return to 60
That's impossible
When others ask me, I always say
A price starting with seven is already very good
78, 77, 76 are all fine
I placed mine at 75
But it didn't get filled…….October 15 Evening Market Analysis ~ Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown a strong rebound after recent sharp declines, resulting from a combination of macro expectation adjustments, structural support in funding, and technical short squeezes in the market. Both rebounded simultaneously, but the driving logic behind each rebound has its own emphasis.
📉 Trigger for the sharp decline
The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6% and August's 3.4%, with core CPI also exceeding expectations. After the data release, market bets on a Fed rate hike in October surged from 22.1% to 53.7%, US Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, and global risk assets came under collective pressure. Over 175,000 people in the crypto market were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $932 million, of which long positions accounted for as much as 91.8%. Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $81,000, and Ethereum fell below $2,400.
🔄 Drivers of the rebound
1️⃣ Rapid adjustment of macro expectations: rate hike panic repriced
The rate hike panic triggered by CPI did not last long. Fed officials subsequently signaled caution regarding further rate hikes. New York Fed President Williams clearly stated "no further rate hikes needed next year," and the market's probability of holding steady in October quickly rose from 50% to 79%. The reversal of rate expectations directly eased the pressure of tightening dollar liquidity, becoming the core macro catalyst for the rebound of risk assets.
2️⃣ Funding side: ETF outflows and large holders increasing positions form a "long-short hedge" Big Brother Maji's move this time gave me goosebumps
Background first: In the past 4 months, he went from 56,000U to 12.25 million U, then lost back down to 21,800U. Others would have given up long ago, but not him. On the evening of October 15, he just transferred in 250,000 USDC as margin, and directly increased his 25x ETH long position to 3,100 coins, with a position value of 7.37 million U.
Now the total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split into three directions: short BTC, short HYPE, long ETH.
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84,070, floating profit about 220,000 U, but funding fees cost 56,600. Position is dominant, but with 40x leverage, a price bounce can wipe it out quickly, so don’t just look at the floating profit.
$ETH: 25x long, opened at 2370.67, liquidation price 2333.56. That sharp spike this morning—I suspect it was targeting his liquidation price, causing a direct liquidation! Unexpectedly, he just added another 250,000 USD margin to the long position! Gotta say: having unlimited bullets is really nice!
$HYPE is the harshest, 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss 4.21 million U, but funding fees collected 1.03 million. This fee helps ease costs a bit, but can’t withstand price volatility. Don’t think collecting fees means it’s stable. So this isn’t a full bearish stance, more like he’s diversifying directions among different coins.
Now it’s about whether BTC can stabilize, ETH can hold the 2333 liquidation level, and whether the HYPE short can hold up. You can watch smart money’s positions, but don’t copy blindly. Dollar Weakens, Why Is Crypto Still Stuck in the Mud?
Today, the dollar index slipped from its highs, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, yet the crypto market remains sluggish. On the surface, this seems contradictory, but in reality, funds are still digesting last night's CPI data.
First, a falling dollar ≠ inflation alarm lifted. September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. Although rate hike expectations have slightly cooled, there is still a distance before risk capital boldly returns.
Second, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields may be due to safe-haven buying. Reuters mentioned that inflation and AI debt concerns have boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries. This yield drop reflects risk aversion, not a revival of risk appetite.
Coin perspectives:
$BTC: Watch if it can hold near 80,000, then see if it can reclaim 82,000. Sustained rebounds matter more than a single bullish candle.
$ETH: Declined more than BTC; need to observe if it can actively recover ground when the market stabilizes, confirming the return of buying interest.
$SOL: Expecting the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21; see if it can outperform the market to test capital sentiment.
Conclusion: The dollar's decline only slightly eases external pressure; for crypto to truly recover, it needs sustained buying. I remain cautious and will first see who is genuinely backing the market with real money.
#US September CPI rises 3.7% YoY, core inflation exceeds expectations #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record high CPI negative news has landed, but selling pressure hasn't eased. September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both higher than expected, reigniting inflation concerns. The pressure to raise interest rates adds another layer of resistance to the crypto market rebound. I continue to be bearish in the short term.
$BTC ｜Institutions are buying, but selling hasn't stopped
Strive disclosed spending $235 million to buy 2,822 BTC, an increase which is positive. However, spot net outflow is $331 million, contract net outflow is $659 million, active selling still dominates, so I remain cautious about the rebound.
$ETH ｜Contracts warming up, spot not keeping pace
Spot net outflow is $421 million, contract net outflow is $1.018 billion. On the 13th, ETF net inflow was $24.8 million; on the 14th, partial temporary net outflow was $19.7 million. In the last 4 hours, contract net inflow was $123 million, but spot still outflowed $40.73 million, so the rebound lacks spot support.
$SOL ｜Some support, no chasing the rally for now
Spot net inflow is $9.84 million, contract net outflow is $7.73 million. Alpenglow plans to launch mainnet on the 21st, spot buying is relatively stronger, will watch if it can sustain.
I continue to lean bearish short term, mainly due to macro pressure and persistent spot selling pressure on BTC and ETH. If buying strength continues to improve, I will adjust my view and not stubbornly hold shorts. #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $SNDK This wave of short positions is stuffed full, with a 1378% floating profit behind a 75x tightrope walk. On the macro side, US Treasury yields are soaring, crypto ETFs see daily net outflows, the major market is struggling, and small coins have no chance. Once the news of Changxin G5 mass production came out, the logic of overseas storage monopoly began to shake, SanDisk dropped sharply from a high position, and this on-chain target keeps sliding down uncontrollably.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit PPI went crazy tonight, but the real worry is tomorrow
As soon as 6.3% came out, BTC dropped from 83,000 to 79,725, ETH fell to 2,315, and many people in the group showed their liquidation orders. I didn’t make a move tonight, not because I’m bearish, but because with this kind of data-driven market, trading is basically a gamble on size; the rise or fall depends on a single needle, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable.
Now the market has slightly eased, $BTC is back to 82,300, $ETH 2,438, $SOL 105.9. But if you look closely, the funding rates are still positive, the long-short ratios are SOL 2.61, ETH 2.54, BTC 1.88, bulls are still crowded, and open interest hasn’t decreased, indicating leverage hasn’t been fully cleared. This rally looks more like short covering rather than a reversal.
Tomorrow, focus on two things: first, whether tech stocks can hold after the US stock market opens—today the Nasdaq fell more sharply than the Dow, money is flowing into traditional sectors; second, whether BTC can hold 80,000—if it holds, expect consolidation; if not, look at 78,000, ETH 2,300, SOL 100, all psychological levels.
One last word before sleep: the market is always there, but your capital is limited. Don’t burn all your bullets just because you’re itchy to trade. Wait for clear signals before entering.
Were you liquidated tonight?
#USCPIandPPIbeatexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year?
#BTCTreasuryPreferredStockfinancingheatsup
#ETHfluctuatesafterhitting$2500 #US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be More Rate Hikes This Year?
PPI data also exceeded expectations, with the Producer Price Index rising, which may have some probability of transmitting to the consumer side 🤔, potentially causing inflation to rise further.
CPI also rose further, surpassing market expectations. It can be observed that $BTC and $ETH both dropped below 80000 and 2320 respectively at their lowest 🤔.
However, both subsequently narrowed and did not continue to panic sell. If the downward trend continues to break, it may re-enter the previous "bear market" atmosphere.
Before the CPI release, the market expected two rate hikes this year: one in September, which has been completed, and possibly one in December.
However, since both CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out. With the midterm elections approaching, if liquidity tightens further in late October, then rising interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and shrinking stock assets may cause public dissatisfaction, potentially affecting the midterm elections 🤔.
But rate hikes do not necessarily guarantee relief from supply-side shocks in the US or inflation caused by the "hot investment" in AI. Further observation is needed. Please be cautious of risks!$BTC $ETH This wave of sell-off is fundamentally due to inflation exceeding expectations, the rate cut expectations being pushed back, and some even starting to speculate about possible further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields rise, all high-risk assets are being suppressed, with tech, storage, and the crypto sector all suffering together (╥﹏╥)
US stock storage stocks had surged too much earlier, AI benefits were already priced in advance, so now any slight miss in earnings reports gets punished. SanDisk has been stuck around 1500 for too long, with many taking profits; after Musk supported Micron, the market fears SanDisk raising prices and losing customers, so bulls naturally dare not push hard. In the short term, it looks more like repeated oscillations, with positive news causing a bounce, but macro pressure pulling it back (´･_･`)
The crypto sector is even more sensitive to interest rates. As long as high rate expectations persist, funds are unwilling to stay long; once a breakdown occurs, leverage cascades explode, and the drop speed is even fiercer than stocks. Most rebounds are just corrections, not the start of a new bull run (￣▽￣)
Next to watch: US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials' speeches. If yields don't come down, risk assets will struggle to have a big rally; only when inflation falls and rate cut bets return will funds truly come back.
Summary: Sentiment is weak, in a consolidation phase. Don't rush to bottom-fish; treat rebounds as just rebounds (・∀・)#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, profits hit a record high In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations close to $980 million, with 185,000 people forced out, and longs accounted for over 90%. Ethereum fared even worse, with liquidation volume surpassing Bitcoin and a significantly larger drop. The shorts didn't enjoy the dip for long, as the rebound swept out those chasing longs again. This kind of market specifically targets those chasing both sides and leveraging both sides. $BTC $ETH $SOL The reason Ethereum hurts the most is not a sudden collapse in fundamentals, but because its derivatives are the most active and leverage is the densest. Once volatility amplifies, it triggers a chain of forced liquidations first. Tonight at 20:30, another wave of data will come out: PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index all packed together. Macro is still being repriced repeatedly; CPI just raised rate hike expectations, and PPI added another blow. The market hasn't formed a consensus on direction at all. At times like this, guessing the rise or fall is meaningless. Surviving is more important than guessing right. Use less leverage, chase fewer breakouts, and wait 15 to 30 minutes after data release to confirm direction before acting. When others are forced out, having bullets left in your hand is the advantage. Personally, I now lean towards a consolidation shakeout, not a trend reversal. Whether BTC can hold steady around 80,000 and whether ETH/BTC turns are two key signals. Volatility will be high before and after tonight's data, so no rush to chase orders instantly. How about you? Are you waiting on the sidelines for direction, or can't resist jumping in to trade back and forth? #USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year? #TSMCQ3netprofitexceedsexpectations, profits hit record highs #Netflixgrowthmayslow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus 20:30 Five key US data points released simultaneously, where will the market head?
Tonight, five key Federal Reserve monitoring indicators will be released at the same time, directly influencing interest rate expectations and serving as core variables impacting crypto assets. Employment, consumption, upstream inflation, and manufacturing sentiment form two projection paths: if employment weakens, consumption cools, upstream inflation falls, and manufacturing contracts, the market will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting the market; if employment remains resilient, consumption and producer prices exceed expectations, and manufacturing recovers, inflation stickiness concerns will rise, suppressing prices.
Each indicator has clear thresholds. Retail sales previous values were high; if the decline is less than expected, it is a latent negative. PPI monthly rate expectations rising is a potential risk point. Going forward, focus on whether all data collectively deviate from expectations.
The market is like a scale, each data point is a weight that adds or subtracts.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Why hasn't Solana's big move in Shanghai been reflected in the price of SOL? 💡
Many people think "good news = price increase," but the crypto market has long passed the stage where events alone can trigger mindless surges:
1️⃣ Offline expansion vs on-chain liquidity: Events and ecosystem building are long-term positives that cannot directly translate into on-chain buying pressure in the short term.
2️⃣ Macro selling pressure: Constrained by the overall market and macro environment, isolated positive news is easily offset by macro sell orders.
3️⃣ Expectations realized become negative: The news has already been priced in, reducing retail investors' willingness to buy.$SKHYNIX Entered the market in the afternoon, $SKHYNIX Hynix has, as expected, started an oversold rebound rally. The first short-term resistance is at the 1000 level; if the price can effectively break through and hold above it, the next target range is 1080‑1240.
The entire memory sector has been continuously adjusting for nearly half a month, with this round of decline being quite dramatic. After the sector's sustained drop, if a bottom can be confirmed today, the subsequent rebound's explosive power should not be underestimated. This is typical of the memory sector: the drop is fierce, but once an oversold rebound starts, the rally is equally intense.
This time, the choice was to position in Hynix rather than buying $SNDK SanDisk, mainly because the afternoon market showed that Hynix was the first to signal a temporary bottom, whereas SanDisk's trend was weaker, with a risk of another sharp drop at any time. The US market opening confirmed this: SanDisk dipped to a low of 1278 intraday, while Hynix's low only reached around 925.
Although both stocks are currently rebounding strongly, there is no need to rush to chase SanDisk. If the memory sector can stabilize and complete a bottom tonight, it will still be timely to consider positioning in SanDisk tomorrow. The market never lacks trading opportunities; waiting for the trend to truly stabilize before acting will make holding positions much more comfortable and help avoid unnecessary intraday shakeouts during weak phases. $BTC $SNDK #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? September's inflation reports did more than beat forecasts: both headline and core CPI and PPI came in above expectations. That broadens the policy problem, because the Fed cannot easily dismiss the surprise as one volatile category. Still, Daly and Goolsbee underline that a further hike is a live debate, not a settled outcome.
#USCPIAndPPITopForecasts Don't have high hopes that Solana's "Shanghai landing" will pump the price! ❌
Offline events are for developers and institutions to see, not for retail investors in the secondary market to pump the price.
If a public chain can raise its token price just by holding a few offline Meetups, then that token is not far from going to zero. The real price pump depends on:
• On-chain TVL breakthrough
• Hit applications/phenomenal DApps emerging
• Genuine net capital inflowAfter the CPI dropped to 3.7%, tonight's PPI is the real emotional test. Are you chasing, waiting, or being shaken out now? When I saw last night that the CPI year-on-year was 3.7% and the core also exceeded expectations, my first reaction was not "it's over," but rather—the market is about to start repricing the rate cut path again. This is a typical "event repricing" rhythm: the trend hasn't changed, but the originally anticipated easing timetable has been pushed back one notch. At this stage, I prefer to define it as a game period, not a rally-chasing period nor a clean pullback period. Because derivatives are the truly fragile area. After the CPI release, if the funding rate is still positive and the open interest hasn't dropped much, it means the bulls haven't been hurt and leverage is still stacked on top. This structure fears not the negative news itself, but the price not falling after the negative news—once it holds sideways, it easily lures more buying and then triggers a squeeze. Tonight's PPI expectation is an overall monthly rate of 0.6% and core 0.3%. The key is not the numbers themselves, but what the market has already priced in. The CPI has already brought "higher for longer" back to the table, so if the PPI just meets expectations, it's actually a breather, not a positive. What really needs caution is another surprise beat, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen together, short-term pressure on BTC and ETH will be amplified, and altcoin beta will look even worse. The bullish path is not impossible either. If the PPI is below expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, risk appetite will$BTC Contract Data and the Dog Whales' Conspiracy — $924 Million Liquidated, Bulls Bloodied
First, in the past 24 hours, a total of $924 million was liquidated across the network, with $802 million liquidated on long positions, accounting for 86.8%! A total of 175,806 people were liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance's BTCUSDT, valued at $12,034,700, on a long position, executed at a price of $80,208.96.
Second, in the last hour, $484 million was liquidated across the network, with $464 million liquidated on long positions! Among these, there were three single long liquidations exceeding $10 million, all occurring on Binance.
Third, the funding rate has turned negative, with shorts paying longs. The current funding rate is about -0.0031%, shorts have started paying. However, the long-to-short ratio for large accounts is as high as 1.87, and for retail accounts 1.77, with longs still clustered — this structure is most prone to sudden spikes that sweep longs.
Fourth, open interest has risen to 93,117 contracts, the basis is -0.04%, and ATR14 is 1,032.19. Cost and volatility risk are simultaneously increasing; chasing positions is prone to pullbacks, and tight stop losses are easily triggered.
Fifth, the dog whales' conspiracy: 79,725 is the "slaughter line" drawn by the dog whales! The dog whales used the Korean stock market crash and CPI exceeding expectations as a fuse, smashing BTC from 84,146 down to 79,725 to trigger long liquidations. Of the $924 million liquidated, 86.8% were longs — the dog whales quietly accumulated at the low. 79,725 has been defended once, and a short-term bottom structure is initially forming, but the strength of the rebound depends on how the CPI is digested. $BTC ETF single-day outflow of 261 million, but whale holdings surpass 3.03 million coins
First, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $261 million, with Fidelity's FBTC leading at a net outflow of $153 million! BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $111 million, while Bitwise's BITB was the only ETF recording a net inflow, with just $2.22 million.
Second, since October, ETFs have had a cumulative outflow of $681 million, marking the largest 5-day outflow since January 23. The total net asset value of ETFs dropped to $104.83 billion, with a net asset ratio of 6.38%.
Third, however, whale holdings have broken through 3.03 million BTC, showing a clear accumulation trend! Despite ETF outflows, large holders’ combined Bitcoin holdings have increased to 3.03 million BTC, with whales continuously accumulating during price pullbacks.
Fourth, whale holdings rose from 5.247 million to 5.263 million coins, a growth of 0.305%. Large holders are accumulating while retail investors are exiting—this "large holder accumulation, retail exit" pattern has historically tended to be bullish but requires time to materialize. SanDisk $SNDK's market today is really ready to torment the bulls to death 😧
It had already fallen badly before, and then tonight PPI came to stab again, with the US stock market continuing to plunge after opening, hitting a low near 1270
Wow, it was hovering around 1600 just a few days ago, now it’s almost down by 20% 😂
But interestingly, after the plunge, there was a pretty fierce rebound, now back near 1360
I previously bought a long position at 1419.1 and closed all at 1504.6, thinking the market overreacted to the Changxin news
My view hasn’t fundamentally changed: Changxin’s breakthrough in the DRAM field doesn’t directly mean SanDisk’s NAND business is doomed
But with the market falling like this, I can’t pretend I don’t see it; now I want to see how far this rebound can go
If it’s just a brief respite after panic, then there’s probably more turmoil ahead
#Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, both setting single-quarter records. The 2nm advanced process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with overall advanced processes making up as much as 79%. Demand for AI chips remains the core driver.
However, the stock price fell more than 2% after hours.
The core issue lies in the gross margin guidance.
Q3 gross margin guidance is between 65%-67%, lower than the actual 67.7% achieved in Q2. The market is concerned that capital expenditures are continuously being raised (with the Arizona plant in the US, Kumamoto plant in Japan, and Kaohsiung plant progressing simultaneously), and the massive depreciation and amortization will erode profit margins in the coming quarters.
Simply put: earning more, but spending even more. This rally is not a bull market reversal, nor is it new capital entering the market!
It purely belongs to the CPI negative news landing, causing concentrated stop-losses on short positions and short covering forcing a short squeeze rebound.
The fundamentals remain hawkish, inflation stickiness is strong, and rate hike expectations persist; essentially, this is a bull trap rebound.
Long strategy
Do not open new long positions!
Reason: The rebound lacks fundamental support and is only driven by short covering; chasing longs means a 100% chance of taking the bag.
The only long opportunity: consider only after stabilizing above resistance, U.S. Treasury yields fall back, and sustained stabilization signals appear.
Short strategy
If the price surges but fails to break new highs and stalls then falls, go short directly.
Reason: The major downtrend remains unchanged; this round of rise is a false rally. After the bull trap ends, a secondary decline will occur with heavy selling pressure.
Short-term short squeeze bull trap market, do not chase the rise, only short at highs, do not bottom fish, mostly observe.
No macro positive news has landed; all rebounds are opportunities to short!兄弟们，$BLUR 加仓了！链上出货、群里哀嚎，这单我拿得踏实
BLUR这波空单我0.01166继续加，现价0.011，浮盈16.98%，方向踩得稳。
链上，大资金跑得比谁都快。 今早一笔9857万枚BLUR（约400万美元）从匿名地址转入Coinbase Prime，做市商Wintermute也向交易所转了约260万美元。更早之前，19个新钱包提取了近5000万BLUR。做市商往交易所转币，从来不是为了护盘。
动态群已经吵成一锅粥。 Blur宣布11月12日关闭前端，群里有人骂“原来我们持有的只是那个网站”。更狠的是Upbit，直接把BLUR列入交易警告名单，暂停充提，下一步大概率下架。
走势上，反弹就是诱多。 虽然从低点弹了9%，但上方0.01105压着90万枚卖单，MA5还在MA20下方，中期趋势没反转。
我0.01166进的空单继续拿着，防守放0.0125上方，下方先看0.0105，跌破就是0.01。
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 美国月度通胀数据落地
公布：0.6%｜预期：0.6%｜前值：0.4%
本次CPI环比数据和市场预测完全一致，没有出现超预期的意外。
重点要关注：环比从前值0.4%上升至0.6%，通胀重新加速反弹。
通胀粘性再度走强，直接压制美联储的降息预期。
市场原本博弈的降息预期继续降温，高利率环境延续。
对市场的影响：
美元和美债容易走强，风险资产承压。
好在数据没有超出预期，不会引发踩踏式大跌，市场进入震荡消化阶段。
宏观环境依旧偏谨慎，不要盲目博弈反转行情。
投资有风险，仅供信息参考，不构成操作建议。
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