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Big Brother Maji's latest position:
$50.15 million bet on ETH, unrealized profit of $376,900!
Maji currently only holds one long ETH position; BTC and other positions are no longer in the holdings list.
Position: about 20,000 ETH
Leverage: 25x full margin
Position value: $50,147,700
Average entry price: $2,545.82
Unrealized profit: $376,900
Margin: $2,005,900
Reference liquidation price: $2,508.97
This position has returned to profit; the account gained $971,600 in the past 24 hours. Next, it depends on whether ETH can continue to rise to help him build a thicker safety cushion.
What worries me is that in the past 7 days, there was still a loss of $10,190,500, with a cumulative account loss of $34,655,200. This one day's recovery still leaves a long way to fill the previous gap.
The position page also shows that funding fees have accumulated to $1,353,800. The longer you hold a high-leverage position, besides enduring price volatility, you also bear holding costs, and these fees are terrifying.
Based on this position data, ETH is only about 2.3% away from the reference liquidation price, leaving very little room for a pullback; the liquidation price will also change with the account status.
If ETH continues to rise, his profits will amplify quickly. If there is a sharp drop, unrealized profits could shrink rapidly.
Looking at his position, after the direction is correct, the position still has to withstand volatility. There is still a way to go between earning unrealized profits and taking the money out.$BTC stabilized first after a week of decline
After a week of selling, $BTC stands above $82,900.
The hardest hit wasn't $BTC, but the altcoins.
How this number is calculated:
82,900 is the bottoming point, not the breakeven point.
The drop from the previous week hasn't been recovered yet.
Who is placing orders here:
The Fear and Greed Index is 57, indicating neutrality.
Neutral doesn't mean people are buying, just that no one is rushing to sell.
Altcoins have absorbed most of the decline, indicating the money hasn't left, just moved back into $BTC.
Once the US inflation data is released, the money pulled back will decide where to move next.
Bottoming and reversal are two different things.
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Gold ETF hits record inflows, high interest rates still suppress gold prices $BTC As I said before, as long as the $83,500 support holds, every pullback is a classic "top-to-bottom flip".
Just now, the dip to 83,670 was instantly swallowed by large buy orders, then it bounced back to touch $84,125.
In my logic, this kind of high-level rejection of a deep dip is a buildup signal for a push to $84,500. Hold your spot positions tight and let the shorts keep guessing the top!ASML, making money quietly
Q3 earnings report will be released on October 14
#ASMLQ3EarningsReport announced on October 14, EUV orders are the focus
Usually not as popular as Nvidia, but in the AI chip industry chain, the ability to make money is really strong
Currently expected Q3 revenue is 11 to 12 billion euros, gross margin 55% to 57%
This profit margin is already quite competitive in manufacturing
This earnings result should still be very good
AI chip demand is very strong, big manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung want to expand advanced process capacity, and they can't avoid ASML's EUV lithography machines
Also important to note is how many new orders there are; buying equipment is one thing, but whether customers are willing to continue investing to expand production is also very important
As long as EUV orders remain strong, ASML still looks very promising in this AI capital expenditure cycleDon't just focus on the K-line! OKX funding rates have already diverged, with $SOL longs getting more and more crowded, while $ETH is being suppressed by shorts!
Here's the OKX 30-day funding rate for you guys:
$SOL: +0.7666%
$ZEC: +0.3355%
$BTC: +0.1208%
$ETH: -0.1319%
The most interesting part of this data set is the completely different funding structures of $SOL and $ETH.
$SOL current rate +0.0085%, 30-day cumulative +0.7666%, longs keep paying, indicating a more concentrated bullish sentiment in the contracts. But don't mistake a high funding rate for a positive signal; the more crowded the position, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal.
$ETH current rate -0.0015%, 7-day and 30-day rates are also consistently negative, showing that shorts are paying more prominently. If the price strengthens and shorts start to cover, the rebound could exceed expectations; however, a negative funding rate itself is not a buy signal.
$BTC and $ZEC funding rates are also positive but overall lower than $SOL.
My take: Watch out for $SOL longs crowding, and keep an eye on whether $ETH's price and funding rate diverge. Don't short just because the funding rate is high, and don't bottom-fish just because the funding rate is negative. What trading really needs to capture is the misalignment between market expectations and price trends.It's been 19 days, and the number of people buying $BTC on Coinbase is still less than those selling.
This premium index basically shows whether buyers in the US are willing to pay a higher price.
A negative value means they are not only unwilling to pay more but are pushing the price down.
-0.12%, the number isn't big, but for 19 consecutive days, this is quite noticeable.
My first reaction isn't that it will drop, but that people over there simply haven't come back.
Occasionally, Asia can still hold the market up, but once the US cools off, the market loses a leg.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing in to buy the dip when they see a negative premium, thinking it's a discount.
Actually, this isn't a discount; it's that no one is competing to buy.
I'm more inclined to wait and see, waiting for this number to turn positive first.
Otherwise, like me, an experienced trader, I'll just be out in the cold at the peak again.
#Institutions continue to build positions, why is BTC still under pressure?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC I can say this: over 95% of the crypto space consists of air coins, trash coins, and pyramid scheme coins. Those big blue-chip coins $BTC, $ETH, $SOL aren't impressive because they're inherently superior; they just came out earlier, have more stable teams and foundations, and have indeed been tested through more than a decade of market ups and downs. Let me ask, what are the real applications in the crypto space? It's nothing but endless rhetoric and layers of nested packaged projects. Some projects have market caps in the billions, yet their real daily revenue is less than 100 USD. I can frankly say many projects are zombie projects. Meme coins have completely detached from the previous circle culture and community totems. The truly strong meme coins have a foundation built on large communities and years of shared ideas. Today's meme coins are purely gambling tools, instruments for whales to harvest retail investors, and some even serve as money laundering channels. In the future, don't talk about meme coin culture or whatever culture—it’s just gambling.$ZEC 醒醒，这是反弹，不是反转
兄弟们，昨天普涨，量没放、资金没进、压力没破
这波拉升，说白了就是空头回补加情绪反弹。空头被拉爆了，被迫买回，价格就被顶上去了——这不是买盘强，是空头怂。等空头清算完，拉盘的燃料也就烧完了，底下根本没有真买盘撑着。
聪明钱数据更直白：空军整体被拉成浮亏，盈利比例只剩两成多。空头越惨，说明这波越像诱多，冲高就是给空头送位置。越拉越像钓鱼，专钓追多的。
操作很简单：1330附近空，目标看回1200。止损放1360上面，仓位别重。别怕它拉，拉上去就是更好的空点。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH has been slowly rising for 4 consecutive days and is finally about to recover the second large bearish candle. However, as the price approaches 2560, the pressure it faces is also increasing significantly. The short-term trend has already started to turn downward. It's uncertain if there will be a large buy order to support it soon! Everyone is now focused on the CPI data to be released in a couple of days. Aggressive funds began bottom-fishing in the past two days, while more cautious funds are still watching or even fleeing to safe havens. Therefore, the subsequent rise or fall will depend on the attitude of the big players. In the short term, there is pressure from a technical rebound correction; in the long term, there is support from fundamental undervaluation. The strategy of buying low and selling high in short-term swings and accumulating in batches for the long term remains effective!Completely devastated
$RVN dropped 23% in just three days, with the price falling from $0.0022 to around $0.00169.
Checked recent news: On October 12, the Korean exchange officially stopped RVN trading, involving three trading pairs with KRW, BTC, and USDT.
Previously, Bg delisted RVN/USDT on September 24, and bn also announced it would stop supporting RVN trading in the Brazil region.
Even earlier, Ravencoin faced a consensus mechanism vulnerability that caused chain reorganization risks, leading some exchanges to temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals.
Losing trading channels consecutively in a short time, combined with previous security incidents, naturally affected market confidence.$LAB This car is already so heavy, the old boss has pocketed all the money, and still wants him to take it out to pull it.$OKB has been showing something different these past couple of days. It has slowly climbed back over the past three months, with a market cap of $2.65B.
The biggest news is from October 6: Circle, Ripple, SC Ventures, and QRT simultaneously invested in OKX, valuing it at $25 billion. Note this is valuation, not market cap. OKX founder Star Xu stated, "I'm not short of money; what I want are allies."
Circle stablecoins, Ripple payments, SCV Singapore capital,
QRT hedge fund—this lineup looks very impressive. In the same month, NYSE parent company ICE plans to partner with OKX to tokenize U.S. stocks, with the first phase covering 63 NYSE-listed companies.
If tokenized U.S. stocks succeed, it will be OKX's biggest alpha; if not, OKB is just a trading platform token.
As for me, I am a firm holder of OKB. Besides BTC and ETH, this is the most worthwhile mainstream platform token to hold. Even during major market downturns, it can chart its own independent course—just for that reason alone! Reviewing ETH these days, I first shorted around 2670, then reversed to go long around 2500, and now I'm preparing to take profit.
When I opened the short at 2670, the main observation was that after dropping from a high level, it hadn't managed to reverse the trend; each rebound peak was lower than the previous one. At that time, I felt that the area around 2670 was more like a pullback rather than a direct strong rebound, so I followed the downtrend and shorted.
Later, it dropped to a low of 2405. When it fell to this point, I started to consider whether to keep holding the short: after a sharp drop, chasing further down didn't seem to have good odds. Then the price returned to around 2500, and I saw it pull back and the lows began to rise, so I closed the short and reversed to go long around 2500.
Now ETH is around 2570, and on the 4-hour chart it has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, showing short-term strength compared to the past few days. But the hourly Bollinger upper band is around 2578, and the 24-hour high is roughly at this level, so it has hit immediate resistance. I feel this position is unstable, so I exited first.
Looking ahead:
Wednesday will have the US September CPI data; I'll wait for the data to see how the market moves. Volatility might be relatively high before and after the data. No operation, no analysis, just relying on luck; I feel embarrassed even to share this record. While others were running, $STRK had strong sell pressure, low trading volume, insufficient support, and bearish signals with heavy resistance above. I was just waiting for a rebound to open a short near 0.11165 without hesitation.
The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
Have a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection after.
Now at 0.10232, the return is +417.37%. This short position really feels great; the big profit was worth the wait. Close 80% of the position first, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it falls back, don’t let profits turn uncomfortable; if it continues to drop, let the profits run.
Now is not the time to rush; wait for the next opportunity. The market is not short of chances, but it lacks patience. For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak.
$BNB $ETH Single Coin Transaction Linkage｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH spot volume increase is more prominent, with contract end-stage buy-in proportion rising. Spot/contract transactions are 2.4/0.6 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; spot/contract prices are -0.28%/-0.26%. Contract end-stage active buy-in is 42.2%.午后盘面分析：
经历上午一轮回调之后，买盘再度进场发力，大饼重新拉起。
从15分钟K线可以看到：
短期全部均线拐头向上，价格稳稳运行在三条均线上方，资金回流明显，多头再次拿回短线主动权。成交量保持活跃，回调没有出现深度砸盘，说明下方承接力度很强。
关键价位
$BTC 支撑位：83200-83500
压力位：84300-46000
$ETH 支撑位：2530
压力位：2580-2600
早上一波回踩洗走了部分不坚定的持仓者，低位承接充足，资金不愿意给太多低价筹码。目前短线趋势重新偏强，但靠近上方重压区，不要盲目追高。
午后建议：
大饼回调至83200-83500多，看84500
以太同步This rebound, ZEC is leading the way
$ZEC I will raise my short-term rating a bit.
Up about 9% in the past 24 hours this afternoon, price back near 1328, down about 2.1% in the past week. This recovery already has some weight.
But I still won't say the correction is over directly.
After a fast rise, what needs to be watched most is the performance when it stops: can it hold steady at a higher level, or does it retreat as soon as the rise pauses.
At present, the repair strength can be recognized, no need to immediately bring out the previous high.
If the subsequent pullback is limited and then continues to advance, only then is there reason to judge the strong rebound as turning into sustained strength.
$SOL is also recovering, but the repair task is heavier.
Up about 3.2% in the past 24 hours this afternoon, still down about 6.9% in the past week, this rise has not yet filled the previous drop.
My attitude is to first acknowledge the improvement, temporarily not raising expectations too much.
Next, the rise needs to be continuous, not just a segment pulled up intraday every day, then the gains are given back.
$JUP needs attention to the pullback during strength.
Updated this afternoon near 0.363, up about 4.2% in the past week, but compared to about 0.381 last night, the price has retreated about 4.8%.
The phase direction has not worsened yet, but the short-term rating from last night cannot be applied.
I will watch if it can stop this pullback. The gains so far are an advantage, but whether it can hold needs new performance to answer.$BTC stabilized first after a week of decline
After a week of selling, $BTC stands above $82,900.
The hardest hit wasn't $BTC, but the altcoins.
How this number is calculated:
82,900 is the bottoming point, not the breakeven point.
The drop from the previous week hasn't been recovered yet.
Who is placing orders here:
The Fear and Greed Index is 57, indicating neutrality.
Neutral doesn't mean people are buying, just that no one is rushing to sell.
Altcoins have absorbed most of the decline, indicating the money hasn't left, just moved back into $BTC.
Once the US inflation data is released, the money pulled back will decide where to move next.
Bottoming and reversal are two different things.
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Gold ETF hits record inflows, high interest rates still suppress gold prices $BTC Brothers, is it really a good time to add to my ETH position now? Waiting online, urgent! But honestly, I already have the answer in my heart—adding to the position is basically pulling the plug on myself!
Looking at the overall margin rate of 0.10% in my account, my palms are sweating cold.
$ETH ETH: full position 5X, entry price 2718.24, mark price 2610.28. Floating loss -88.16U, ROI has already dropped to -20.77% on $ETH. This mess is now a bottomless pit; when the market falls, it leads the charge down, and when the market rises, it just plays dead. BCH: full position 10X, floating profit +69.34U (+150.72%), base position 460U, still the strongest pillar on the field. $BCH BCH $SOL: full position 20X, floating profit +34.63U (+44.31%).
The 0.10% lifeline! As long as the market dips just 0.1%, the hard-earned profits from BCH and $SOL, along with my principal, will be instantly liquidated on the full position! Not a scrap left! Adding to the losing ETH position at this critical moment is not bottom fishing; it’s like lighting a bomb!
Moreover, ETH shows no signs of stabilizing now, purely catching flying knives. What do I use to add? Taking margin from BCH and SOL will only speed up liquidation, and adding more funds is just feeding the exchange heads on a platter.
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, what other highlights to watch in the October 15 earnings report? Do 99% of blockchain token projects eventually go to zero?
This question is hard to stamp with an exact "99%", but the mainstream conclusion in industry research is that "a very small number of tokens survive long-term, while the vast majority eventually go to zero or effectively to zero." The key is how you define "going to zero": price dropping close to zero, being completely abandoned by the market, team disbandment, or simply having no circulating market value.
1. Origin of the "99% go to zero" figure
Common basis comes from statistical studies on cryptocurrency survival rates:
- A 2018 study analyzed thousands of tokens and found about half "disappeared or lost vitality" within one year after listing.
- At bear market bottoms, the number of active coins under various statistics often remains only a small fraction of the bull market peak; many altcoins from 2017-2018 had no trading volume, no development, and prices approaching zero by 2019-2020.
- In the long term, a large portion of coins listed on CoinMarketCap have very low daily trading volume and market cap, regarded as "zombie coins."
So although "99%" is not a precise academic conclusion, the direction that "the proportion of coins surviving long-term with ecological value is extremely low" holds true.
2. Why most tokens eventually go to zero
1. No real demand: Most projects issue tokens just for fundraising, without actual users, use cases, or revenue sources.
2. Team runs away or stagnates: After fundraising, the development team fails to deliver, does not open source or maintain; after community interest fades, prices naturally collapse.
3. Liquidity dries up: Delisting from exchanges, market makers exit, trading volume drops to zero, and prices can be crushed by any sell order.
4. Homogeneous competition: Easily copied technical solutions quickly get cheaper alternatives, early projects lose their barriers.
5. Regulatory and compliance risks: Being classified as securities, delisted, or sued can be fatal.
6. Many "shady" projects: Copying code casually, buying hype, then exit after the pump; these make up a high proportion, naturally pushing the zeroing rate up.
3. "Going to zero" is not sudden but a process
Many coins don’t vanish overnight, but:
- Price drops over 90% from the peak;
- Trading volume continuously shrinks;
- Development stops, social media updates cease;
- Eventually delisted from major exchanges;
- Finally only historical records remain, no trading, market cap approaches zero.
4. Which types are more likely to survive long-term
- Projects with real technology, developer ecosystems, and long-term roadmaps (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum, usually considered infrastructure);
- Stablecoins and some Layer 2s with actual use cases and revenue models;
- Projects continuously supported by large institutions or mature teams with compliance capabilities;
- Leading projects with network effects, whose tokens have practical use even if prices don’t rise.
5. Conclusion
The "99% go to zero" statement essentially means: the vast majority of altcoins, especially new projects born in bull markets, will die in bear markets over the long term. Buying such assets requires mental and financial preparation for principal loss.
However, "eventually going to zero" is not an inevitable law but a statistical probability. The real question is: can you identify the 1%? If you lack fundamental analysis skills and are driven by influencer hype, on-chain buzz, or "listing on major exchanges" noise, your probability of ending up in the 99% is even higher. 💳 Thẻ thanh toán bằng stablecoin đang “quẹt” ngày càng mạnh!
Trong Q3, tổng khối lượng giao dịch qua stablecoin card đạt 4,31 tỷ USD, tăng 33% so với 3,24 tỷ USD của Q2.
Điểm đáng chú ý là $TRX dẫn đầu với 23,2% tổng khối lượng trong quý. Tính trên 4,31 tỷ USD, đó là xấp xỉ 1 tỷ USD giao dịch qua stablecoin card, một thị phần đủ lớn để cho thấy hạ tầng blockchain đang dần kết nối với nhu cầu chi tiêu thực tế. $ZEC Don't get carried away! This wave of ZEC looks more like a bull trap, not a real reversal!
Brothers, are you watching ZEC surge up suddenly, and the group chat starts shouting that old coins are reviving and the bull market is back? Don't rush to fully trust it yet, let's peel back the layers and talk it through.
The price indeed jumped all the way to 1349.30, looking very strong. But be careful! This wave was largely pushed up by forced liquidations of short positions—smart money data shows many shorts are now at floating losses, with only about 20% of positions profitable.
A rally driven by liquidation momentum is fierce when pulling up, but the actual new active capital entering is insufficient, and volume hasn't continued to expand. Simply put, this height is built on the shorts' blood, not a main upward wave bought with real money.
A rebound does not equal a reversal; don't shout bull market just because of a few big green candles. A true reversal requires sustained volume increase plus holding above strong resistance to be confirmed, and neither condition is met now.
Dan's view: focus on observing the area around 1330, with the first target at 1250, and further down at 1200. #RussiaUkraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Still watching the market at 3 a.m., with over 1000 U in unrealized profits but too afraid to sleep—is this normal? Have you noticed that what really causes insomnia is never the losses, but the moment when unrealized profits start to retract? $NEAR with 10x leverage, 181% returns, unrealized profits of 979 U; $ETH with 20x leverage, unrealized profits of 287 U; $BTC steadily contributing 96 U, price hovering around 83,638. The numbers look great, but from a derivatives perspective, these positions themselves are part of the market's fragile points. High-leverage longs stacked in the same direction mean that once liquidation triggers, the decline will be automatically amplified. If the funding rate remains persistently positive, it indicates longs are paying to hold positions, sentiment is hot but not extreme yet, and this state is most prone to quick squeezes after false breakouts. The bullish logic is that profit-protecting behavior precedes price reaction. As more traders choose to take profits, selling pressure is released early, which actually creates room for subsequent rallies. $BTC's sideways movement near 83,638 is not weakness but more like waiting for CPI data to provide direction. $ETH's 2533 level is a key battleground; holding above it would revive altcoin sentiment and risk appetite would spill over beyond mainstream coins. But the risks are clear: a 20x leveraged $ETH position can be nearly halved with a 5% adverse price move. If CPI exceeds expectations, rising real interest rates will suppress risk assets, and the derivatives market's first reaction is always deleveraging, not a slow decline. Behind $NEAR's 181% returns lies an equally rapid potential drawdown. My own judgment is, currently Can Ethereum rally all the way before the interest rate hike meeting?
My answer is straightforward: it won't rally.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 2406 to 2564 gained over 150 points, but the 4-hour trading volume is even smaller than during the decline; the buying power simply can't keep up.
The area from 2560 to 2600 above is a previous dense liquidation zone and also where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. Every time it approaches, it's an opportunity for bears to add positions.
Looking at the capital side, BitMine has already announced it will stop increasing ETH holdings, and the number of validators exiting the queue has surged from 166,000 to 851,000. A large amount of staked ETH will unlock in the next two weeks.
Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, so liquidity will only tighten further.
Therefore, this rebound looks more like handing chips to the bears.
I still hold the short position I entered at 2671, with a floating profit of 400%.
If it dares to break 2600, I will add to my position. The short-term support below is 2497; if broken, it will drop to 2400.
Rally before the rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Market trends often emerge at times of greatest market divergence.
Looking at $ETH's four-hour structure. After a surge testing the upper resistance zone, some profit-taking occurred, but during the pullback there was no significant volume increase with bearish candles, indicating limited selling pressure and clear support below. The lows are progressively rising, Bollinger Bands are slowly opening upwards, and the middle band support continues to follow the candlesticks. This pullback looks more like a consolidation of chips during an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. The mid-term bullish structure remains intact.
As mentioned in the previous article, during Ethereum's advance from 2500 to 4000, each rally cycle has been compressing: initially taking four weeks, then narrowing to about two weeks, with a noticeably faster pace. Once the bulls confirm a start, this cycle is very likely to replicate or even accelerate this path. Currently, it has just broken out of the bottom consolidation range, and bearish sentiment still exists; most people's perception remains stuck in the inertia of the sideways phase.
The difference in trading perception often shows whether you can stick to your judgment at the end of a consolidation. As long as no sudden major macro negative news occurs, the combination of sentiment recovery, capital inflow, and short covering can form a force that a large bullish candle could break the current rhythm at any time.
Position unchanged, currently maintaining a bullish outlook, patiently holding and waiting for catalysts. $BTC 🚀 $RSR — BULLISH BREAKOUT WATCH
RSR is showing bullish momentum following a reported 48% rally, with 0.002589 acting as a key resistance level. If buying pressure continues and the breakout is confirmed, the price could extend toward 0.00270.
📊 Trade Setup:
Entry: 0.00234–0.00238
Stop Loss: 0.00218
TP1: 0.00245
TP2: 0.00258
TP3: 0.00270
👀 Key Watch: A confirmed break above resistance could support further upside, but watch volume and price action before expecting continuation.
#DailyOrbit ETH surged to 2578 then softened again! A whale cashed out $21 million at a high level, can't get past the 2570 hurdle?
ETH just surged to 2578.44, seemingly about to break through, but was slapped back by bears to 2567.95 (+1.32%). The 5-minute MACD fast and slow lines are converging above the zero line, red bars shrinking, indicating a clear weakening of bullish momentum.
On-chain data reveals the painful truth:
According to Lookonchain monitoring, whale 0xb927 sold another 5000 ETH ($21 million) two hours ago during ETH's rebound. In the past 40 days, this whale has cumulatively sold 15,000 ETH, cashing out $65.5 million. Meanwhile, two wallets associated with the Ethereum Foundation also transferred 4393 ETH (about $11.13 million) to Kraken, raising market concerns that the Foundation is also selling at highs.
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $26.3199 million yesterday, marking five consecutive days of net inflows. Fidelity's FETH led with a single-day inflow of $14.928 million, followed by BlackRock's ETHA with $8.4943 million inflow. Although there was still a net outflow of $542 million last week overall, short-term funds are flowing back.
Resistance above: 2578 → 2601 → 2630; Support below: 2520 → 2468. 2578 is today's high point; a breakout with volume is needed to target 2600; breaking below 2520 could lead to a retest of 2500.Today ETH is rising more sharply than BTC, and I'm more interested in looking at the contract positions behind it.
Binance perpetual data shows ETH around $2567, up 2.68% in 24 hours; BTC around $84013, up only 1.17%. Both are rebounds, but ETH's elasticity is much greater.
But there's another detail: ETH's open interest (OI) increased from about 2.328 million to 2.348 million contracts, with the latest funding rate still around -0.00324%; BTC's OI rose from about 92,900 to 93,500 contracts, and its funding rate is slightly positive.
Price is up, positions are increasing, yet ETH's funding rate remains in negative territory. This indicates that this round of recovery is not just a simple "all-in bullish" story; divergences remain in the contract market.
I will focus on whether ETH can truly hold above around 2580. If the price continues to rise afterward, and both trading volume and position structure cooperate, this recovery will be more convincing.
Data is a snapshot at the time of release, for market observation only.Don't just focus on the K-line! OKX funding rates have already diverged, with $SOL longs getting more and more crowded, while $ETH is being suppressed by shorts!
Here's the OKX 30-day funding rate for you guys:
$SOL: +0.7666%
$ZEC: +0.3355%
$BTC: +0.1208%
$ETH: -0.1319%
The most interesting part of this data set is the completely different funding structures of $SOL and $ETH.
$SOL current rate +0.0085%, 30-day cumulative +0.7666%, longs keep paying, indicating a more concentrated bullish sentiment in the contracts. But don't mistake a high funding rate for a positive signal; the more crowded the position, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal.
$ETH current rate -0.0015%, 7-day and 30-day rates are also consistently negative, showing that shorts are paying more prominently. If the price strengthens and shorts start to cover, the rebound could exceed expectations; however, a negative funding rate itself is not a buy signal.
$BTC and $ZEC funding rates are also positive but overall lower than $SOL.
My take: Watch out for $SOL longs crowding, and keep an eye on whether $ETH's price and funding rate diverge. Don't short just because the funding rate is high, and don't bottom-fish just because the funding rate is negative. What trading really needs to capture is the misalignment between market expectations and price trends.I really don't understand, truly don't understand, why every time Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, these small coins start to fall.
Why is that?
Actually, the answer is hidden in the market.
When Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, all the funds get pulled to chase the mainstream, and altcoins suffer short-term outflows.
This is an iron rule.
But conversely, once Bitcoin and Ethereum stop and move sideways, funds will flow back out to altcoins looking for opportunities.
MAGIC has surged from 0.05 to 0.16, more than tripling, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. It's very normal for the main force to wash out some positions while the big market is absorbing funds.
Now the price is stabilizing around 0.124, with EMA5 (0.128), EMA10 (0.123), and EMA20 (0.111) lines converging, which is a typical sign of an impending breakout.
Once the direction is chosen upwards, the second wave will start.
I have a position myself, currently holding floating profits, no rush to sell. In terms of operation, you can lightly enter long around 0.12, set stop loss below 0.11, first target at 0.14, and if it breaks through, look at 0.16.
The big market's money will sooner or later flow back to altcoins, just be patient and wait for rotation.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6% $RSR rose 47% in 24 hours, but that's not the most important thing—the key point is the 4H volume.
At noon today, the $RSR 4H volume was 111 million tokens. The average volume for the same period over the past 7 days was 300,000 to 500,000 tokens. This candle's volume is more than 200 times the average.
Consider the scale: normally, 4-hour trading volume is a few million tokens, but suddenly someone dumped or pumped in one go, causing volume to spike 200 times.
The price rose from 0.00166 to 0.00258, up 55%—all within one candle. That upper shadow (0.00166→0.00258→0.00236) indicates someone sold at the high of 0.00258.
The question now is: is this volume genuine institutional activity, or just wash trading to lure buyers?
Looking at similar tokens—$W rose 48% yesterday and continued up 22% today, $S surged then pulled back. Such extreme volume spikes can continue short-term but rarely complete the entire move at once.
For $RSR, watch the 0.00165 support next; if it holds, there's a chance for consolidation at higher levels, but if broken, treat it as a single-day pulse.
What do you think about this 200x average volume spike—is it real major players entering or retail investors acting together? $RSR S — A single-day surge of 43% followed by a pullback, what does this upper shadow candle indicate?
It indicates heavy selling pressure around $0.069.
Rising from $0.04633 to a high of $0.06911, then being pushed back to $0.05919 means about a 14% drop near the top. Coupled with a holding volume of only about $2.12 million (very thin order book), this upper shadow can be explained in two ways: profit-taking concentrated at high levels, or a false breakout in a thin market quickly rejected. Either way, the conclusion is the same — $0.0691 is a clear short-term resistance, and without a volume breakout, rebounds to this level tend to stall.
Currently at $0.05919, with a market cap of $230 million ranked 176th. Strength line at $0.055, supports at $0.055 and $0.0462; resistances at $0.0691 and $0.08.
In the next one to two weeks: pessimistic (40%) scenario is breaking below $0.055 to retest $0.0462; baseline (40%) scenario is digesting selling pressure between $0.055 and $0.0691; optimistic (20%) scenario is a volume breakout above $0.0691 targeting $0.08.
Plan: The upper shadow is not yet resolved, so no chasing. Wait for a pullback to $0.052-$0.056 or a volume breakout above $0.070 before acting. Stop loss at $0.045, targets at $0.0691 and $0.08. Position size within 5%.
Like, follow, and stay tuned.Brothers, it's painful, really painful, so painful. I shorted at 2490, now deeply trapped. Looking at the price of 2570 on the screen, my heart is bleeding.
Could $ETH really break through 3000?
Honestly, when this thought flashed through my mind, my hands were shaking.
But I forced myself to calm down and repeatedly watch the market; I still don't believe it can go up!
Don't even mention 3000, I think it’s hard for it to truly hold above the 2600 level.
Look at the volume of this rebound, it’s getting weaker and weaker, purely a short squeeze pushing it up, no real incremental funds.
From 2600 to 2700 above are all trapped positions dumped earlier, the selling pressure is as heavy as a mountain.
That news about a huge whale selling BTC to buy ETH, breaking out at this position, looks more like a deliberate smokescreen by the main force to trick retail investors into chasing highs and taking the bag.
Now that I'm trapped, I’m reluctant to run, and I don’t want to run.
I absolutely will not cut losses at this position and hand over the blood-stained chips.
This market is a psychological game, seeing who breaks first.
I will hold my short position to the end; time will prove who is right.
$BTC
$MAGIC
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed October 14th at 8:30 PM, US September CPI. This is the last inflation data before the October 28th FOMC.
Currently, market expectations are quite conflicted. Overall CPI is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% or 3.7%.
Market outlook:
If core CPI falls to 0.2% or even lower, the probability of no rate hike in October will continue to increase, and the CME's bet on a December rate hike will also ease. If US Treasury yields can move down a bit, $BTC has a chance to stabilize above 8.3 and target 8.6 or 8.7.
If core CPI is at 0.3%, the chance of a rate hike in October rises again. If US Treasury yields continue to hold up, $BTC will most likely test the low around 80400 first, or even dip near 79000.
In any case, data serves the market trend. At this position, which is neither high nor low, opening a position is not recommended. The US stock market opens tonight, so wait and see first.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $HYPE
HYPE has recovered but trading volume is not leading; can protocol revenue serve as evidence to replace capital?
Today's early morning 24-hour spot observation window: range 84.679—87.316 USDT, change +1.38%, trading volume about 9.7 million USDT.
This window is positive and the trading range has shifted upward, indicating some price support recovery. There are still fee and rights mechanisms between active protocol trading and coin holding demand; spot trading volume is not net capital inflow and cannot directly identify buyer identity.
If the rise near 87.316 continues to retrace, keep the partial recovery explanation; if fee improvement can be verified and the pullback holds a higher area, then increase the judgment of independent demand.Bitcoin suddenly touched 84,000 at midnight and then got smashed back down.
In the past 24 hours, 57,000 people were liquidated, most of them longs.
On-chain analyst Darkfost said that 53% of Bitcoin investment capital was entered above 83,000, with the heaviest chunk stuck between 84,000 and 85,000.
The bears are sniping, no need to guess they're watching closely here.
The CFTC hasn't been idle either; the new regulations were announced on October 13 in the Federal Register, with public comments open until December 14, after the holiday season.
My personal view: regulatory implementation is a long-term positive for BTC, but in the short term, with no one stepping in to buy, it's bear ammunition.
The small base position I hold hasn't moved, hovering around the 82,000 cost line.
What I'm afraid of isn't a drop, but another washout with no warning.
Sunday is just that kind of day; watching it is useless, better not to look.
If you entered above 83,000, how long are you prepared to hold? $BTC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
What’s next for BTC
Liquidation Map
- Long liquidation intensity below: about 1.3 billion USD
- Short liquidation intensity above: about 1 billion USD
Short positions are closer to the current price, long positions are deeper and thicker.
From the perspective of "who is easier to sweep first," the market is more likely to first sweep the short positions upward.
🟢 Upward path (higher probability)
Current price → Break through 84,700 → Squeeze 85,177–85,333 short positions → Short covering itself creates buying pressure → Target around 85,800.
Feature: low resistance, like a short squeeze, not necessarily a trend reversal.
🔴 Downward path (more painful but needs to be triggered)
Break below 82,950 → Trigger main long zone at 82,240 → If macro/US stocks don’t cooperate, long positions get forced liquidated in a chain → Below 81,500 there is almost no thick position buffer.
Feature: once opened, the drop speed is faster than the rise speed.
My inclination: up first, then pull back.
The reasons are simple:
1. Short positions above are closer to the current price, sweeping shorts "costs less"
2. The strongest long position below is at 82,240, about ~2.2% away from the current price, requiring breaking through two secondary supports first
3. The weekly chart still shows a rebound repair at 80.4k, not a mindless bull market continuation
4. Before CPI (10/14), the market prefers to first force shorts, then deliver the macro answer $XAU 早评明确提示：4220‑4240阻力不追涨，反弹就是做箜机会。
预判反弹属于技术性修复，并非趋势反转，航🎹如期承压回落，
从预判到执行，逻辑闭环，多笔箜单全部兑现，
珍妮从不靠猜，靠客观盘面逻辑说话。 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ 《空军病历一则》
患者：山顶吹风者
主诉：$BTC、$ETH、$ZEC空单套牢，短线熬成长期投资，伴心慌、失眠、反复盯盘。
现病史：加息预期再度升温，通胀、油价、宏观压力轮番施压。多军憧憬牛市，空军山顶受冻数月。
诊断：空单套牢综合征（慢性期）
处理意见：不求暴富翻倍，只求市场发善心，再来一根大针。若解套，保证三天不乱开单。
医嘱：加息预期≠行情必跌，市场不因个人被套转向。别人等牛市，我等瀑布；别人盼新高，我等解套。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 STRK at $0.103, are you chasing it?
Up 320% in 30 days, doubled in 7 days, everyone shouting "the next SOL"—but tomorrow, October 15, 127 million tokens unlock and flood the market, on-chain TVL only rose 5%, yet the price tripled. Is this wave really the start of the "L1 transformation grand narrative," or just the last frenzy of whales selling on good news?
First, the surface: it’s gone crazy up, but now it’s starting to stall.
STRK violently surged from 0.03-0.05 to 0.126, up 260-320% in 30 days, one of the strongest altcoins recently. Now it’s pulled back to 0.103, down 5-15% in 24 hours, with trading volume exploding to hundreds of millions of dollars. The candlesticks tell you: the mid-term bullish structure is intact, but short-term high-volume stagnation, RSI overbought then falling—all technical indicators shout one thing: it rose too fast, time to take a break.
First thing: L1 transformation narrative, but it’s still just a proposal.
The core catalyst is Starknet’s plan to transform from Ethereum L2 to an independent L1, aiming to become the first quantum-resistant network by 2027. CEO Eli Ben-Sasson publicly endorsed this at Token2049, sending the market into a frenzy.
Sounds impressive? Let me tell you three harsh facts:
First, it’s at the proposal stage. No governance vote, no timeline, no migration plan. In plain words: it’s just pie-in-the-sky.
Second, on-chain TVL only rose 5-7% to $168 million. Price tripled, but real adoption barely moved. This is narrative-driven, not fundamental explosion.
Third, the quantum resistance story won’t materialize until 2027. What you’re buying now is expectations for three years from now.
I’m not saying the narrative is fake. I’m saying—the bigger the narrative, the farther the payoff, and any turbulence in between can halve your position.
Second thing: 127 million tokens unlock, don’t pretend you don’t see it.
On October 15, 127 million STRK tokens unlock, accounting for 1.7% of circulating supply, worth about $13-15 million. Mainly for early contributors and investors.
Sounds small? Let me do the math:
Current 24-hour volume is hundreds of millions of dollars, so $13 million unlocking looks small. But the problem is—STRK has already tripled, early investors’ cost might be only 0.02-0.05.
With 2-5x profits on the table, do you think they’ll choose "long-term faith" or "take profits now"?
More frightening: unlocks continue until March 2027, with a batch every 15th of the month. This is not a one-time negative event, it’s a chronic bleed lasting two years.
Third thing: technicals tell you this is a "pullback within strength," not a "dip to buy."
Key data:
Price far above mid-term moving averages, short-term severely overbought
Daily volatility often exceeds 15-20%, explosive fluctuations
0.100-0.103 is a psychological level, repeatedly tested today
In plain words: it’s walking a tightrope at a high altitude, not picking up money at the floor price.
Support: 0.100-0.103 (today’s low) → 0.09-0.095 (stronger support)
Resistance: 0.110-0.115 → 0.124-0.126 (previous high) → 0.14+
Holding above 0.103 means a rebound. Breaking below 0.100, next stop 0.09.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
Bullish chips:
Strong L1 transformation + quantum resistance narrative, market buys in
7-day rise 80-110%, 30-day rise 260-320%, violent trend
Staking protocols support STRK+BTC, real use cases
Huge volume, high capital participation
Bearish chips:
127 million tokens unlock on October 15, flooding the market tomorrow
On-chain TVL up only 5%, price up 3x, serious divergence
Proposal stage, distant implementation, can be disproved anytime
Down 97% from ATH 4.41, heavy trapped positions above
BTC oscillating around 84,000, CPI data on October 14, macro uncertainty
Short term (1-7 days):
Don’t chase longs. Unlock + CPI data, two bombs stacked. Wait for 0.100-0.103 to stabilize with rebound candlesticks + volume recovery, then consider low-leverage long, stop loss 0.095. Target 0.11-0.115.
If it breaks 0.100 and accelerates down, short lightly with stop loss 0.108, target 0.09.
Mid term (1-3 months):
Narrative still intact, as long as proposal discussion continues, mid-term bias is bullish. But ideal entry is a pullback near 0.09 or lower, build position gradually. Chasing at 0.103 now, one unlock flood and you won’t hold.
Spot DCA investors:
Start buying in batches below 0.09, don’t rush in at narrative peak to be the bag holder.
STRK fell from 4.41 to 0.03, down 99%, everyone called it trash.
Then it tripled, everyone started shouting "the next SOL."
You’re not investing, you’re stuck in a cycle of chasing highs and selling lows.
Fear missing out when it rises, fear zero when it falls—end up making no money and losing your mind.
On unlock day, regardless of rise or fall—
If it rises, don’t FOMO chase highs.
If it falls, don’t panic sell.
The narrative is real, but your cost must be truly cheap.
$BTC $ETH $STRK 麻吉浮亏、爆姐收割后，十一老板出手：30倍BTC/ETH空单+平ZEC，调仓暗藏玄机
继麻吉大哥6亿空单浮亏5000万、爆姐50倍多单三连杀落袋为安、全网空单遭核弹级绞杀之后，市场又迎来一位重量级玩家的硬核调仓——"十一老板"深夜出手，9月18日先平ZEC空单，再30倍重仓双开BTC/ETH空单，节奏精准得让人后背发凉。
交易明细拆解
BTC：30倍卖出开空，403万U重仓压阵
23:03均价80781.2开空，成交价值403.9万U。大饼8万上方直接押注，与麻吉大哥高位空单形成"巨鲸共识"，但30倍杠杆容错极低，反向波动3.3%即临强平边缘。
ETH：30倍卖出开空，25.7万U紧跟主流
23:09均价2575.69开空，成交价值25.7万U。比BTC晚6分钟，主流双空组合成型，方向高度一致，赌的是宏观同步回调。
ZEC：5倍买入平空，146.2万U精准避险
22:03均价1462.98平空，成交价值146.2万U——比双开空早了整整1小时。结合前序"ZEC空单12小时爆仓472万"的数据，十一老板这波提前平仓完美避开了山寨空单绞杀，调仓敏锐度拉满。 $SOL
Solana’s appeal comes from fast transactions and an ecosystem built around trading, payments, and decentralized applications. The bigger question is whether activity stays healthy when market excitement cools. A busy network during a bull run is one thing; retaining users during quieter periods is another. Consistent usage will tell a more meaningful story than short-term price movements.. $HBAR
Enterprise-focused blockchain projects face a different challenge from retail-driven networks: turning technical capabilities into repeatable commercial use. Hedera’s distributed ledger technology offers a different approach to blockchain infrastructure, but real adoption must be judged by meaningful activity and sustainable demand. Partnerships can attract attention, yet actual usage is what gives the long-term story substance.$GRVT
Trading platforms need more than incentives to build loyal communities. GRVT’s longer-term challenge is whether traders continue using its exchange infrastructure when rewards become less attractive. Retention, execution quality, liquidity, and user experience are important factors to evaluate. Short-term campaign attention can bring users in, but sustainable activity is a much harder achievement.#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ 台积电先行披露Q3营收刷新历史纪录，核心驱动力来自HPC/AI芯片订单，市场现在重点等15号正式财报与法说会，这也是全球AI产业链的风向标的。
第一看毛利率。前期指引区间65%-67%，2nm新制程量产会抬升短期折旧成本，一旦毛利率低于预期，容易引发AI板块估值下修；如果站稳区间上沿，会强化AI高景气叙事。
第二看Q4以及全年营收指引，市场最关心AI订单能否延续高增，英伟达等大客户下单强度、CoWoS先进封装产能释放节奏，是决定后续半导体、纳指AI板块情绪的关键。
第三看资本开支。此前已经上调至600-640亿美元，重点关注管理层会不会再度上调，代表对中长期AI需求的信心。
第四看2nm良率和扩产进度，以及美国建厂相关表态，关乎长期产能规划和地缘风险。
这条消息也会间接传导到加密市场，AI景气超预期，利好AI概念相关币种；反之指引偏弱，会带动纳指联动走弱，压制整体风险偏好。$BTC $ETH #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ 芯片LOF溢价30%：散户在炒“硅含量”，基金在发“别跟了”，10:30复牌就是压力测试
景顺长城旗下全球芯片LOF溢价飙到超30%，公司连夜提示交易风险，10月12日上午直接停牌至10:30——翻译一下：净值1块的东西，场内被人抢到1.3块，基金经理比散户还慌，因为LOF不是新股，溢价一塌就血流成河。
这波疯法很A股：
美股半导体、英伟达、ASML、费城半导体指数一涨，国内买不到美股个股的散户就涌进“全球芯片LOF”当平替；
LOF有申购套利机制，但QDII额度紧、申赎慢、时差卡着美股收盘，场内筹码少，游资一推就飞天；
30%溢价=你花130块买一篮值100块的海外芯片股，等大额申购放出来、套利盘砸下来，溢价归零不是跌30%，是“净值不动、价格崩30%”。 昨晚还在纠结2.11能不能过，ZRO今天直接一脚踩上去了
今天涨幅榜除了RSR、W两枚火箭，真正走出趋势的是LayerZero：ZRO现价2.384、24h涨约12.7%，最高摸到2.3886，昨晚我贴里盯的2.11压力位已经被甩在身后；同赛道Wormhole的W涨超35%，跨链互操作这条线今天是真金白银在轮动。
消息面没有单独的重磅催化，更多是板块情绪叠加协议收入全额回购的老叙事，CoinCodex中午把它封成"今日之星"。技术上均线多头、MACD张口，超级趋势2.274稳稳托着，但RSI已到75.7，最新成交主动卖盘占近八成，获利盘边打边撤。
两个提醒：欧易24h成交额约389万USDT，比昨晚厚一倍多但仍不算深盘；10月20日月度解锁只剩八天，越临近早期筹码越想兑现。
这种加速段我不追。盯2.388日内高和布林上轨2.447能不能放量站稳，回踩先看2.309支撑和2.362的MA5，缩量冲高多半要回吐一段给解锁让路。DYOR，非投资建议。
#ZRO #LayerZero #跨链$ZEC 姐妹们！1348了！空头这次真的被打懵了！🚀
周末多单布局美美拿下
妍妍说句实话，这波ZEC能走出来，真不是单纯靠运气！
背后四把火，直接把行情烧起来了！
🔥 宏观助攻：市场环境给了资金炒作的机会。
🔥 治理预期：出块速度调整叠加减半机制，市场开始重新定价。
🔥 机构叙事：ETF相关消息不断发酵，关注度持续升温。
🔥 空头踩踏：价格越涨，空头压力越大，爆仓又反过来推高行情。
再加上隐私赛道重新回到市场视野，这波ZEC的热度自然就起来了！
记住：叙事决定关注度，资金决定涨幅，空头决定加速度！
不过暴涨之后也别无脑追，妍妍只做有逻辑、有计划的交易！两个与以太坊基金会早期资金有关的钱包，将4393枚ETH转入Kraken，价值约1113万美元。
这批地址十年前曾收到基金会分配的ETH，因此市场马上联想到“基金会又要卖币”。
但需要说清楚：这些钱包并非基金会当前官方钱包，而且转入交易所不等于已经卖出。
真正值得观察的是，后续是否继续转币，以及Kraken内的ETH是否发生实际减持。
#Ethereum#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $SAND
Gaming tokens face a simple but difficult test: does the game remain enjoyable when token prices are not moving? The Sandbox has built its identity around user-created experiences and digital ownership. Long-term interest depends on whether creators and players have reasons to return. Ecosystem development matters, but lasting engagement is what separates a gaming economy from a short-lived market narrative.