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The vote passed, but the money printer won't slow down tomorrow.
NEAR governance body House of Stake passed HSP-029, reducing the annual issuance cap from 2.5% to 1.6%.
The allocation ratio remains unchanged: stakers still get 90%, treasury 10%. Daily issuance drops from about 89,500 to about 57,300 tokens after implementation.
It still needs to pass two more steps: approval by the Security Council plus validator upgrades, then about a 90-day grace period, followed by a 24-month gradual reduction per epoch.
Governance voting is just the trigger; the upgrade implementation is the bullet loading. Don't mistake passing for being effective.
#NEAR #Crypto$AAPL Apple earnings released, revenue data looks impressive, but the stock price plunged over 4% directly. Many retail investors don't understand why it dropped so sharply when the earnings report isn't bad.
This is the first earnings report since the new CEO, Tim Cook's successor, took office. Revenue was $114.48 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with earnings per share of $2.10, exceeding expectations. However, part of this revenue was supported by tariff refunds, not by explosive product sales. Breaking it down, iPad and wearable device sales shrank, Greater China revenue missed targets, and iPhone growth relied heavily on the Pro series.
The real killer was the weak guidance for the next quarter, with gross margin forecasted at 45%-46%, a clear decline compared to the current 47.9%. Management also said the core reason is rising memory prices; the hot AI storage market has pushed NAND prices up, and upstream costs continue to squeeze Apple's profits. This pressure is expected to continue into next year. The fourth quarter is usually Apple's peak sales season, but weak guidance for the peak season naturally leads the market to price in future negatives early.
As a core component of the Nasdaq index, Apple's weakness will directly drag down the tech sector in tonight's US stock market. Tech stocks were already hit a few days ago by news of AI capital expenditures, and now $AAPL has released negative news again, further suppressing market risk appetite, which also implicitly pressures the crypto space.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $BTC 72000 or 85000, systemic risk in the US stock market quietly approaching Market Analysis｜November 3, 2026
The US stock market rebound on Monday failed to continue. $BTC briefly surpassed $78,500 before falling back, then broke the support near $77,500. During the Asia-Pacific midday session, the price returned to the previous low near $76,500. Yesterday, a short position near $79,000 was mentioned; the current price decline matches expectations.
To conclude, the US stock market technically presents the possibility of systemic risk. This does not mean it will definitely happen, but we need to observe the market trend and potential changes first. The pre-market gap-up on Monday did not change the moving average trend structure, followed by a gap fill and a rapid sell-off.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq rose in early trading but ultimately closed down 1.07%. Nvidia also turned from gains to losses. Apple’s after-hours earnings beat expectations, but the stock price reacted mildly.
This recent decline first broke the gradually rising weekend lows. Previously, the price rebounded from around $76,300, with buyers stepping in at higher levels on each pullback.
On the downside, watch around $76,300. If it briefly breaks below but quickly recovers, and spot buying rebounds, there is still a chance for a rebound. On the upside, first watch near $77,500; if it recovers and holds, conditions will be set to test $78,500 again. If the previous low is lost and a pullback cannot recover, the weekly correction will continue downward, gradually testing $72,000, and possibly even the yearly low of $58,000. Leverage retreat! $76,522 defense battle: Who can withstand the pressure test among BTC/ETH/SOL?
Behind $76,522 is a brutal two-way deleveraging game. The whole market liquidated 210 million, with longs accounting for 83%, but BTC longs and shorts are nearly split evenly. Stablecoin supply fell below 300 billion, hitting a 13-month low. Wintermute bluntly states the rebound relies entirely on leverage, lacking spot buying.
$BTC: $76,800 last line of defense
Current price $76,522. $80,000 has turned from support into resistance, lacking ETF buying support. $76,800 (50-week moving average) is the last technical anchor; once broken, the downside space will open.
$ETH: Whale divergence intensifies
Current price $2,244. On-chain signals are contradictory, with whales transferring out $29 million to accumulate, but also large whales selling. $2,250 is the short-term battleground; if broken, look to $2,200.
$SOL: Oversold but lacking fuel
Current price $91.39. Daily RSI is severely oversold, but the rebound lacks "fuel": ETF saw the largest weekly outflow, and a giant whale deposited 1.49 million SOL to exchanges, creating selling pressure.
Although the three coins' declines are small (-0.36% to -0.61%), their underlying structure is fragile, all sustained by leverage. Under event-driven defensive mode, before each holds key support, any rebound should be treated as a repair. The real turning signal is when spot and ETF buying return first.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Leverage retreat! $76,522 defense battle: Who can withstand the pressure test among BTC/ETH/SOL?
Behind $76,522 is a brutal two-way deleveraging game. The whole market liquidated 210 million, with longs accounting for 83%, but BTC longs and shorts are nearly split evenly. Stablecoin supply fell below 300 billion, hitting a 13-month low. Wintermute bluntly states the rebound relies entirely on leverage, lacking spot buying.
$BTC: $76,800 last line of defense
Current price $76,522. $80,000 has turned from support into resistance, lacking ETF buying support. $76,800 (50-week moving average) is the last technical anchor; once broken, the downside space will open.
$ETH: Whale divergence intensifies
Current price $2,244. On-chain signals are contradictory, with whales transferring out $29 million to accumulate, but also large whales selling. $2,250 is the short-term battleground; if broken, look to $2,200.
$SOL: Oversold but lacking fuel
Current price $91.39. Daily RSI is severely oversold, but the rebound lacks "fuel": ETF saw the largest weekly outflow, and a giant whale deposited 1.49 million SOL to exchanges, creating selling pressure.
Although the three coins' declines are small (-0.36% to -0.61%), their underlying structure is fragile, all sustained by leverage. Under event-driven defensive mode, before each holds key support, any rebound should be treated as a repair. The real turning signal is when spot and ETF buying return first.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 The upgrade is still two days away, but the community is already arguing.
ZEC dropped more than 10% today, back to around $1,130.📉
About $13.6 million was liquidated in the past day, with longs accounting for nearly 90%, and the $1,200 support was also broken.
The trigger wasn’t the upgrade, but internal disputes over funding: major holder Big Z publicly liquidated on October 31, protesting the direction of the funding committee.
The founder proposed stopping new funding, but the committee only agreed to half.
Positions look even worse: on Hyperliquid, tracked shorts are about 193 million, while longs are only 136 million.
I think we should first side with the bears: the upgrade’s positive effects haven’t materialized, and the internal strife has scattered the buying power.
$ZEC Midterm Election Day, three cryptocurrencies are priced by three different ledgers.
$BTC: Around 76,800, down nearly 2%. Above, 1.373 billion short positions at 80,783 liquidated; below, 779 million long positions pressured at 73,731; 7,000 USD in the middle is fuel on both sides. 24-hour liquidations total 281 million, with longs accounting for 74.57%. ETF outflow in a single day is 7,919 BTC, about 614 million USD. The price hasn't collapsed, relying on passive balance from short covering, not active spot buying.
$ETH: Around 2,250, down 1.7%. A giant whale spent 62.97 million USD over 5 hours to buy 27,553 coins at an average price of 2,286, which has already fallen below cost. On the same day, ETF net outflow is about 102 million USD, totaling 336 million over the past 7 days. A certain multi-coin whale's liquidation price is at 2,253, less than 0.2% from the current price. RSI has entered oversold territory; the rebound window overlaps with liquidation risk.
$SOL: Around 92, down 2–3%, down about 23% in 30 days, RSI 26–31 severely oversold. But oversold does not mean bottom: ETF net outflow last week was 71.47 million, the largest single week since launch, with four consecutive weeks of outflows; a certain whale deposited about 1.49 million coins to exchanges over 10 days, about 149 million USD.
Historically, BTC fell for a period after three midterm elections before forming a stage low. All three cryptocurrencies are waiting for the same event.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Countdown to the US midterm elections! What BTC truly fears may not be a Democratic victory
On November 3, the US midterm elections officially begin. Prediction market data as of November 2 shows an implied probability of about 93.6% for the Democrats controlling the House and about 73.5% for controlling the Senate. But note, this is just market pricing, not the final election result.
For the crypto market, what really matters is the follow-up to the CLARITY Act. The bill failed a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15. Changes in congressional seats may affect committee leadership, agenda setting, and legislative negotiations, but regulatory policies will not change immediately after the election.
In the short term, BTC is more easily influenced by risk appetite, dollar liquidity, and capital flows. Block Scholes data shows that as of October 26, the correlation coefficient between BTC daily returns and changes in the probability of Democrats controlling the Senate is only -0.02, indicating no obvious direct linkage between election expectations and coin price.
My view: Do not simply equate a Democratic win with BTC price decline. Focus on whether actual seats deviate from market expectations and whether support near $76,500 holds. Expectation gaps, capital flows, and price structure are the signals worth tracking next. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🇺🇸 The U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and the U.S. stock market is about to enter a new phase of competition!
On November 3, 2026, the U.S. midterm elections will officially take place. The market's focus is not only on the seat contest between the Republican and Democratic parties but also on the direction of U.S. policies over the next two years.
📊 Historical pattern: cautious before the election, rebound after?
Historical data shows that before the U.S. midterm elections, the market often faces higher uncertainty and increased volatility; after the election, as policy expectations gradually become clearer, market risk appetite usually recovers. Some historical statistics indicate that the S&P 500 mostly rises in the 12 months following the midterm elections.
🔥 Key focus on three directions:
1️⃣ U.S. stocks: If Congress is divided, policy advancement may be limited, but the market might also see this as a signal of reduced policy changes.
2️⃣ Tech stocks: The AI industry, tech regulation, and fiscal policy remain important variables affecting valuations; election results may change market expectations.
3️⃣ Gold and cryptocurrencies: If political uncertainty boosts risk aversion, gold may benefit; BTC needs to be assessed in combination with the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and liquidity, and cannot be simply equated with a safe-haven asset.
🎯 My view:
The midterm elections themselves are not the core factor determining the U.S. stock market trend; what truly impacts the market is how the election results transmit to fiscal policy, trade policy, inflation, and Federal Reserve expectations.
In the short term, focus on volatility and capital competition #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 After liquidation, don't mistake "clearing out" for a "reversal" (｡•́︿•̀｡)
This round is more like "two liquidation massacres, one relatively restrained."
BTC liquidation at 97,993,400, with longs at 66,910,200 and shorts at 31,083,200, longs account for 68.28%; ETH liquidation at 68,778,600, with longs at 38,797,500 and shorts at 29,981,100, longs account for 56.41%, both sides left some room, which is reasonable; SOL liquidation at 25,773,700, with longs at 23,268,200 and shorts at 2,505,500, longs account for 90.28%, shorts only 2,505,500, a long-short disparity of about 9 times, essentially a one-sided hunt (¬_¬).
The three coins combined total 192,545,700, with longs at 128,975,900 and shorts at 63,569,800, longs are 2.03 times the shorts. The structure is very clear: crowded longs, especially extreme for SOL.
But remember: liquidation does not equal reversal. Leverage clearing only washes out crowded positions, it does not mean the price will immediately turn. Rushing to bottom-fish now risks going from "being liquidated" to "actively catching the knife" (￣▽￣)~*. First look at the structure, then talk about direction; don't rush, don't be impatient, don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK $ZEC Why did ZEC drop so hard? Is it just because of the hacker incident? Damn, it's like getting shot while just lying there!
ZEC and XMR both belong to privacy coins. When the news broke that hackers chose privacy coins to launder money, it directly caused concern for the entire privacy sector.
There are worries about a new round of delisting and trading restrictions on exchanges, so traders will flee early to avoid regulatory risks, leading to collective sell-offs.
ZEC itself already has a history of trust issues.
Previously, the Orchard privacy pool vulnerability incident left a deep psychological shadow on ZEC: the market has always worried about the existence of unverifiable counterfeit tokens. Many large holders and well-known traders have already chosen to reduce their positions and exit. Its foundation is relatively fragile, so any slight disturbance is more likely to trigger a dump.
Internal governance uncertainty.
Changes in the project development team and governance continuously make the market doubt its long-term development and maintenance capabilities. Compared to XMR, many funds feel that ZEC carries higher risk and will prioritize abandoning ZEC when bad news comes. #With the US midterm elections approaching, which results are worth watching? Thanks to myself for not closing yesterday $ZEC
The major downtrend pattern remains unchanged; we are currently in a low-level consolidation after a big drop.
Two possibilities:
① Weak continuation: if it can't hold 1120.51, it will continue downward;
② Oversold rebound: stabilizing at a low level, testing the moving average resistance around 1133~1138, but the rebound is most likely a second chance for the bears unless it firmly breaks above MA20 at 1172, which would change the bearish structure.
ZEC is down nearly 10% intraday, with moving averages in a bearish alignment, volume dropped sharply then low volume grinding at the bottom.
Don't rush to catch the falling knife; this is just a temporary pause after exhaustion from the drop. Focus on resistance levels for the rebound first. Coverage: Gold, crude oil, storage chips and AI storage, AI industry, crypto market, as well as US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and Fed rate hike or cut probabilities that affect pricing. 1. Key Points · 1. The oil price crash did not rescue tech stocks. US light crude December contract closed at $96.46 per barrel, down 7.36%, Brent crude January contract closed at $104.77 per barrel, down 7.63%, meaning the biggest inflation pressure stone has been moved a bit, but what the market really fears is not the oil price, but whether AI's big spending can pay off. · 2. Gold was the safe haven winner of the day. Spot gold closed near $3954 per ounce, up about 2.1%, US gold futures December contract closed at $3969.60 per ounce, up about 1.8%, meaning after last Friday's crash hitting a one-year low, the market bought back a bit, but the $4000 mark has not been reclaimed, so it cannot be considered a trend reversal. · 3. Storage chips showed a big pre-market rally but closed in the red. Pre-market Hynix rose about 4.83%, Micron about 2.80%, SanDisk about 2.82%, but at close Hynix fell 1.01%, Micron 5.78%, SanDisk 6.59%, meaning the pre-market rebound was a breather after overselling, but at close funds still chose to sell first. · 4. The AI ledger was put on the table. Apple's Q4 revenue was $114.477 billion, up 11.72% year-over-year, net profit $30.711 billion, sameGeneral Kim refuses to take responsibility. 🤣
Kim Yo-jong, Minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, stated: The US blaming North Korea for the $6.3 billion stolen from Binance @binance is "absurd rhetoric," just like last year when they said North Korea stole from Bybit, it's political provocation.
The most outrageous part is the final counterattack,
claiming that the US said last year they would put the recovered stolen coins into the national strategic reserve. Seeing who ends up with the money reveals who is really behind it.
The King of Understanding: You want me to take the blame for you? 🤣$BTC hit a new low again at 2:13 PM Beijing time, Binance spot dropped to 76,388, even lower than the 76,542 at 11 AM, now around 76,580, down 2% in 24h.
Coinglass data shows $298 million liquidated across the network in the past 12 hours, with $271 million long positions liquidated; BTC liquidations were $67.8 million, $ETH liquidations were $40.35 million.
ETH is now at 2,247, down 1.6% in 24h; Binance BTC long-short ratio rose to 2.73, ETH to 2.67, with both coins' funding rates still at +0.01%.
BTC contract open interest increased from $7.46 billion to $7.65 billion in 24 hours, with longs increasing despite the price drop.
My view is that this structure of falling prices with increasing longs makes it difficult to see a decent rebound. MMTC estimates about $30 million long liquidations near 75,900 and 75,100, which will likely be tested first. This world is really strange; sometimes you just have to think more.
Are these national leaders negotiating so hard just to manipulate oil prices and harvest global wealth?
In the early morning, Trump's reply was that there would be no strike on Iran after the midterm elections.
Oil prices then naturally fell to 95.2.
I think a regular rebound to 98 can be used to short CL WTI crude oil.
Who knows if the rise to 98 in WTI crude oil is because Iran said: The US-Iran agreement is still far away, and Iran is ready to respond to US strikes.
The US says Iran is willing to give up nuclear weapons and willing to negotiate peace.
Iran says the US must agree to their demands.
Are they kidding us?
Has anyone noticed that those major oil-exporting countries' profits have already increased by 10%, there is a severe oil shortage outside, they are all making a killing, and here we have started using ethanol to fuel cars through person-to-person transmission, really heartless.
Now short crude oil at 98, it will soon rise to 99, I firmly plan to cut at 101, not holding for one more point In this world, no one is a god, and no one knows for sure whether it will rise or fall, by how much it will rise, or by how much it will fall. At best, one can only judge whether it is more likely to rise or more likely to fall. Therefore, referring to the past historical performance of this asset is crucial.
I remember before October 11 last year, when Bitcoin surged to 126,000, many families were talking about an eternal bull market, institutions entering the market, no more bear markets, and no more four-year cycles. But what happened? The 126,000 dropped to 57,800 in 2026. Isn't this still within the four-year cycle? I can only say this drop was a bit small, which left me somewhat at a loss.
The essence of "carving a mark on a boat to seek a sword" is to improve the probability of judgment, and it is useful. I have benefited a bit from this method, and I will continue to use it until it fails.
⚠️ Market review is only a sharing of ideas and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please strictly control your risks! CORE's "Death Spiral": Narrative Collapse, Zero Revenue, Phantom Tokens Hanging Overhead, Fivefold Pressure Crushing the Coin Price
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, nearly 30% over 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, down over 99% from its all-time high.
Fivefold pressure is tightening simultaneously:
- Narrative failure. BTCFi, Satoshi Plus, and non-custodial staking were highlights, but the ecosystem's revenue has not yet formed sufficient buyback and burn capacity to hedge against long-term unlocking sell pressure.
- Prolonged inflation. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with a circulation rate of about 48%. Mining rewards decay at 3.61% annually and will be released over 81 years, so supply-side pressure is far from over.
- Liquidity exhaustion. The 24-hour trading volume is only about $3.09 million; large sell orders can trigger liquidation cascades.
- Repeated security incidents. After the reward vulnerability hard fork in September, the b14g protocol was attacked again at the end of October, affecting 97 million CORE tokens. Although about 68.15 million tokens were recovered via hard fork, they have not yet been distributed to affected users.
- Continuous trust erosion. Exchange deposit and withdrawal suspensions, unclear handling of abnormal tokens, and unclear community governance direction all drive capital to exit.
The chain is still running, but the price has lost its self-healing ability. If buyback and burn cannot outpace unlocking, TVL cannot rebound, and the $0.01 threshold is breached, the downward trend may continue. $ZEC gold rose 1.95%, crypto market stayed flat
$XAUT today 3,950.5, up 1.95%, opened at 3,875.1, lowest 3,872.4, highest 3,956.0. Real body accounts for 90.2%, almost no upper shadow.
At the same time, BTC 77,935 fell 0.06%, ETH 2,291.6 rose 1.09%. One sideways, one slight rebound.
This is quite interesting. Gold and crypto have often moved in the same direction over the past two years because both feed on liquidity. Today it's reversed: safe haven is rising, risk assets are flat.
There is also a contradiction on the gold side: daily RSI 14 period is only 30.9, still in the weak zone, but 4-hour RSI is already 90.2, 6 period 93.5. The long-term cycle says it's cheap, the short-term cycle says it's expensive. This indicates the rise is too rapid, a sudden buying surge.
Above 4,216.15 is resistance tested twice, with 6.7% room.
Just made a small profit on xp gold today.
$XAUT $BTC 🔥 Interesting historical pattern, let's analyze the past midterm elections and BTC
Looking back at the market after the previous three midterm elections:
In 2014, it took 71 days after the election to hit the bottom, with a low of $170
In 2018, the bottom was reached in 39 days, at $3200
In 2022, it only took 13 days to crash to the bottom, at $15500
Looking at the subsequent gains, it's even more astonishing
170 → 20000, a 100x rally
3200 → 64000, 20x
15500 → 126000, 8x
Another very obvious point: the speed to bottom is getting faster each term, 71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
In short, the moments of extreme market panic often hide the best opportunities. 63 billion stolen, Bitcoin only dropped 5%: BTC is now as steady as a seasoned veteran!
Remember the FTX crash in 2022? Bitcoin fell 19% in three days, and it took just over a week from liquidity crisis to bankruptcy filing, wiping out all market trust.
This time, a top exchange was hacked for about 6.3 billion USD, the largest single hacker incident in crypto history. Yet Bitcoin only dropped 4% to 5% from last Thursday's high, bottoming at 76,300 and rebounding to 78,300 on Monday.
What's the difference? FTX was embezzlement plus bankruptcy, credit collapsed; this time it was a hacker attack, the exchange immediately promised full compensation, and the market treated it as an operational accident, not a systemic crash.
But the stability is only in spot trading. Within 24 hours of the incident, the whole network liquidated 1.11 billion USD, with longs accounting for 84.3%. Spot market veterans calmly watched, while leveraged gamblers turned off the lights and ate noodles—one market, two worlds.
Today BTC fell back near 77,000, dragged down by US stocks and election sentiment, unrelated to the hack. Seasoned veteran or not, always keep your seatbelt fastened.
Just venting, not financial advice, DYOR. Which one are you?🍜
$BTC $ETH$ZEC $ZEC Why has ZEC dropped so sharply? Is it just because of the hacker incident? It's really like getting shot while lying down!
ZEC and XMR both belong to privacy coins. When news broke that hackers chose privacy coins to launder money, it directly caused concern for the entire privacy sector.
There are worries about a new round of delisting and trading restrictions by exchanges, leading traders to flee early to avoid regulatory risks, resulting in collective sell-offs.
ZEC itself has a history of trust issues.
Previously, the Orchard privacy pool vulnerability incident left a deep psychological shadow on ZEC: the market has always worried about the existence of unverifiable counterfeit tokens. Many large holders and well-known traders have already chosen to reduce their positions and exit. The foundation is relatively fragile, so any disturbance is more likely to trigger a sell-off.
Internal governance uncertainty.
Changes in the project development team and governance continuously make the market doubt its long-term development and maintenance capabilities. Compared to XMR, many funds feel that ZEC carries higher risk and will prioritize abandoning ZEC when negative news arises. #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching? All the positive factors have become invalid! Four coins are unfolding four completely different scenarios🔥
$BTC 78145
Asian funds stepped in to support the market, rebounding from 76300, with futures rising 1.5%. Even though Binance had a net withdrawal of 3.64 billion, the market did not crash. The key focus for the next half day is whether Asian funds can hold the 78000 level.
$OKB 111
Positive news is directly invalid in a bearish environment. OKX, together with ICE and Trade.xyz, pushed perpetual contracts into the US compliant market, but the news led to three consecutive declines. The exchange sector as a whole is dragged down by the sentiment from the Binance hack, showing an independently weak trend.
$RE 0.37
This should have been the biggest beneficiary, but it completely stayed flat. As an on-chain insurance protocol, the Binance hack, a black swan event, should have easily triggered insurance narratives, but the trading volume was only 530,000, the market is too thin, and funds are simply unwilling to enter for speculation.
$WLD 0.42
User data continues to rise, but the coin price remains unchanged. The project has real, solid users, but the sword of biological privacy regulation hangs overhead. As long as regulatory risks do not materialize, it is difficult to see a major rally.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 A friend told me that historically, after the midterm elections, $BTC always declines.
This period is not suitable for leveraging or trading contracts.
Well, let's look at the price performance of $BTC in November of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
2014:
First, looking at 2014, in Figure 1, you can see that the 200-day moving average on the daily chart is still downward, and the price is completely suppressed by the 200-day moving average.
Moreover, the price hasn't even broken through the downtrend line.
What does this have to do with the midterm elections? Isn't this still during a bear market?
2018:
In Figure 2, 2018 saw the sharpest decline, but the market performance was exactly the same as in 2014, with no signs of a bull market, it was all bear market.
How could it rise?
2022:
How is this different from the previous two?
Where is the price? Where is the yearly moving average? Where is the downtrend line?
2026:
Do you see what's different?
Where is the price? Where is the yearly moving average? Where is the downtrend line?
The price has broken through the trend line and quickly stood above the yearly moving average.
A completely different trend. It's like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword; the boat is no longer the same, so what's the use of carving?
So you tell me, now that $BTC price has returned to the yearly moving average, will you act???Gold rose 1.95%, crypto market stayed flat
$XAUT today 3,950.5, up 1.95%, opened at 3,875.1, low 3,872.4, high 3,956.0. Real body accounts for 90.2%, almost no upper shadow.
At the same time, BTC 77,935 down 0.06%, ETH 2,291.6 up 1.09%. One sideways, one slight rebound.
This is interesting. Gold and crypto have often moved in the same direction over the past two years because both feed on liquidity. Today it’s reversed: safe haven is rising, risk assets are flat.
There’s also a contradiction on the gold side: daily RSI 14 period is only 30.9, still in the weak zone, but 4-hour RSI is already 90.2, 6 period 93.5. Long-term says it’s cheap, short-term says it’s expensive. This indicates the rise is too rapid, caused by sudden buying.
Resistance at 4,216.15 tested twice, with 6.7% room.
Just happened to trade xp’s gold today, made a small profit.
$XAUT $BTC It's not a crash, but a "slow zeroing out": dissecting the truth behind CORE's continuous decline, each layer more despairing than the last
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, with a 7-day drop of approximately 27%–30%, a 30-day drop of about 40%–44%, and a retracement of over 99% from its all-time high.
It’s not a sudden crash, but a slow tightening by five layers of pressure.
First layer: narrative failure. BTCFi, Satoshi Plus, and non-custodial staking were once highlights, but the ecosystem’s revenue has not yet formed enough buyback and burn capacity to offset the long-term unlocking selling pressure.
Second layer: prolonged inflation. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, circulating rate about 48%–59%, mining rewards released with annual decay, supply pressure far from over.
Third layer: liquidity exhaustion. 24-hour trading volume is only a few million dollars; large sell orders can trigger waterfall declines, and rebounds lack support.
Fourth layer: repeated security incidents. After the reward vulnerability hard fork in September, the b14g protocol was attacked again at the end of October, affecting 97 million CORE tokens. About 68.15 million were recovered on-chain but have not yet been distributed to affected users.
Fifth layer: continuous erosion of trust. Exchange deposit and withdrawal suspensions, unclear handling of abnormal tokens, and unclear community governance direction all drive capital to exit.
The chain is still running, but the price has lost its self-healing ability. If buybacks and burns cannot outpace unlocking, TVL cannot rebound, and the $0.01 threshold is breached, the downward trend may continue.Calculate it: a nominal position of $765,400 with 40x leverage corresponds to an initial margin of about $19,100. The notional size cannot be treated as principal. Core Trader 05 opened a long position of 10.00488 BTC this time. I'm more concerned about how much tolerance it has left rather than how strong the long momentum is.
① Roughly calculating the inverse of 40x leverage, about a 2.5% adverse price movement approaches the theoretical risk boundary. This is not the exact liquidation distance; maintenance margin, additional margin, and other factors will affect the result, but it’s enough to remind me: even if the directional judgment is correct, it might not withstand intermediate volatility.
② The nominal value is $765,382.48. If the price moves 1% against the position, the corresponding unrealized loss is about $7,654. This is roughly 40% of the estimated margin above, so when I look at such positions, I first calculate loss elasticity, then consider the amount.
③ The reference price given in the material is $76,500.916, but there is no complete average fill price or margin information. I won’t use the reference price directly to infer an exact liquidation price; missing parameters cannot be filled in by imagination.
My judgment is that this long position expresses a directional view but does not yet prove whether the risk arrangement is reasonable. Next, I want to observe whether it adjusts the position; for myself, I first separate nominal value, leverage, and real cost before deciding how much weight a monitoring message should carry.Lighter stated that recently 12 new stock tokens have been enabled as collateral on Robinhood Chain, bringing the total number of stock tokens available to 23, including Apple, AMD, and others. The common reaction to such expansion news is: stock tokens have more uses now, which is positive.
On the other hand, I am more concerned about risk control after the collateral expansion rather than the number of varieties. One reason is that being eligible as collateral does not mean high collateral efficiency; if the collateral rate and quota limits are strict, the improvement in users' capital utilization from adding new varieties may be limited. This is my speculation, and one should not judge solely by quantity.
Another reason is that if the related stock tokens lack liquidity, then during price fluctuations, disposing of collateral might be more difficult, and having more options could increase management complexity. I am not excited about the number 23 yet; what I want to see next are the collateral rules and actual liquidity.The $72.8K zone makes sense from a risk-reward perspective, especially after BTC's sustained sell-off.
One detail worth adding: Strategy's average BTC acquisition cost is currently around $75,451, with 849,327 BTC in its treasury. A move towards $72.8K would put price meaningfully below that cost basis, making the zone an important psychological level for the market.
That doesn't guarantee a bounce, but combined with an oversold market and potential short-coveringWhy does it keep falling? CORE's five nooses: from 6.47 to 0.013, an endless plunge
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, nearly 30% over 7 days, having retraced over 99% from its all-time high. Noose 1: Ecosystem revenue far below expectations. Modules like SatPay, AMP, LST have launched, but actual TVL is only in the tens of millions of dollars range, protocol revenue is too small, and buyback strength cannot offset unlocked selling pressure. Noose 2: Long inflation cycle. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with about 48% circulating. Mining rewards continue to release with a 3.61% annual decay for 81 years, causing long-term supply-side pressure. Noose 3: Extremely fragile liquidity. 24-hour trading volume is only about $3.09 million; large sell orders can trigger liquidation cascades. In March this year, the Colend protocol liquidation caused a single-day drop of 50%. Noose 4: Repeated security incidents. At the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, with 97 million CORE stolen. Although a hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, the distribution plan has not been implemented, damaging trust again. Noose 5: Governance handover causes uncertainty. Core DAO is transferring control from the core team to the community, with unclear decision directions, and the market is voting with its feet. The chain is alive, but the coin is "effectively dead." The team is still developing, institutional cooperation is ongoing, and there is no trigger condition for a total wipeout. However, if buybacks and burns cannot outpace inflation and TVL cannot return to growth... Monday Market Observation｜Four assets each with their own storyline👀
$BTC｜78145
Asian funds entered, rebounding from 76300 to 78145, futures up 1.5%. Binance resumed withdrawals with outflows of 3.64 billion, yet the market did not crash. Next, the key focus is whether Asian funds can hold the 78000 level.
$OKB｜111
Down for three consecutive days, although there is positive news that OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz are pushing perpetual contracts into the US compliant market, funds are not buying in. The platform token shows independent weakness, and the exchange sector as a whole is dragged down by the Binance hack incident.
$RE｜0.37
A public chain insurance protocol, with a trading volume of only 530,000 and very thin order book. Logically, the Binance hack would be the easiest trigger for insurance narratives, but funds have completely stayed out, and the concept failed to gain traction.
$WLD｜0.42
World App users continue to grow, but the token price has yet to follow suit. The project has a real user base, but the risk of biometric privacy regulation hangs overhead, and this sword has yet to fall.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Title: 71 days, 39 days, 13 days! BTC Midterm Election Bottom Pattern, Will It Still Hold This Time?
After the past three U.S. midterm elections, BTC exhibited an interesting phenomenon: the market did not bottom immediately after the election ended.
About 71 days after the November 2014 election, BTC bottomed in January 2015 at around $170; about 39 days after the 2018 election, BTC dropped to about $3,200 in December; about 13 days after the 2022 election, BTC dipped to around $15,500 in November.
Even more coincidentally, the intervals between bottoms showed a gradual shortening pattern of 71, 39, and 13 days. In the subsequent three cycles, BTC rose to approximately $20,000, $64,000, and above $126,000 respectively.
But is this really a pattern brought by the midterm elections? Not necessarily. The 2018 period coincided with a crypto bear market, and 2022 was further impacted by the FTX collapse. Macro environment and industry cycles are the key variables.
What’s more noteworthy is that in 2026, BTC’s annual low so far appeared on July 1 at about $57,850, 125 days before the November 3 election. The historical rhythm has clearly shifted.
My view: History can provide an observational framework but cannot offer precise bottom-timing dates. Rather than waiting for the 13th or 39th day after the election, it’s better to focus on ETF capital flows, macro liquidity, and whether the market structure truly reverses. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ What’s next for BTC? Will it continue to fall or start to rise?
Rumors about a $6.3 billion hack at an exchange have been circulating wildly recently. If we were still in a bear market, the price would have already dropped below 70,000 or even 60,000 last week. But the fact is, the decline that started from 87,395 has lasted 39 days with an overall drop of only 12.88%.
This confirms my judgment: the drop from 87,395 is a weekly-level correction against the weekly rise from 57,800 to 87,395, To pour some cold water first, what I see is not "institutions finally squeezing into the same market," but rather that they can continue to maintain their own ledgers separately. Just because technology connects the doors doesn't mean the people inside are willing to do business with each other; I don't want to skip over this distinction.
Consensys's sovereign network interoperability solution is based on Ethereum, allowing institutions to settle securities, exchange currencies, and issue collateral across ledgers without cross-chain operations or moving assets to a shared ledger; assets remain on their native ledgers, execution is verified by zero-knowledge proofs, no additional trusted intermediaries are needed, and transactions are visible only to relevant parties. I tend to see this as a tool for institutional collaboration rather than a liquidity boost for the entire market. There are two reasons: the ability to execute between ledgers does not mean participants are willing to provide quotes and collateral; there is still a business willingness gap between technical connectivity and transaction depth; privacy can reduce information exposure but cannot alone imply an expanded participation scope, and it remains unanswered how much convenience ordinary users can share.
Of course, optimists might be right. If we later see different institutions continuously conducting real settlements rather than just proving the system can run, I will raise my evaluation of it; if it can also show how these businesses improve market depth, I would be willing to take back this cold water. What I will focus on next is whether there is business after the connection, not how smooth the interface sounds.① $BTC
Contract net outflow of 194 million USD, spot market simultaneously outflowing 76.36 million USD. Both contract and spot markets are fleeing; it's not just leverage withdrawing, long-term spot holdings are also exiting.
② $ETH
The weakest market structure. Contract outflow of 95.69 million, spot outflow of 114 million, spot outflow exceeds contract. Real money is continuously fleeing, the foundation visibly weakening.
③ $SOL
The only slight glimmer: contract outflow of 79.49 million, but spot market slightly net inflow of 8.84 million, showing some support at low levels. However, this amount is negligible compared to the massive contract outflow, merely partial absorption, far from a sign of strengthening.
Afternoon market confirms: in the one-hour cycle, all four coins' positions collectively retreat, volume expands, positions can't keep up. Even ZEC turnover is hot, but positions continue to withdraw; the entire market is pulling back to observe.
Multiple variables pressuring the market tonight: 23:00 JOLTS job openings data; US midterm election voting begins, results expected Wednesday morning; second phase of withdrawals advancing simultaneously, liquidity disturbances ongoing.
My bottom line is clear: to rebound and stabilize, two signals must appear—spot outflow rate narrows first, followed by contract funds returning. Before these two signals materialize, firmly no chasing the rally.
What do you think, which will return first—the spot funds or the contract funds?
#USMidtermElectionsApproaching, which results are worth watching❓
$BTC $ETH $SOL$BCH BCH shorts are really stubborn now. Not only are they paying interest to the longs every day, but the spikes at the 289 level have all been instantly pulled back, clearly the market is a bit hard to push down. After CME compliant futures launched, institutional hedging channels just opened, and the old coin has switched to a new playstyle with storytelling. The main force just casually raises a hand, and below is all ready-made short squeeze fuel.
#BCH
$BCH
👇$SUI scares people every day with large unlocks, but when checking the on-chain data, 70% of the unlocked tokens are immediately put back into the staking pool.
There really isn't much increase in circulating supply in the market.
Those who hastily shorted trying to ride the wind must have miscalculated this time; do they really think tokens are free?
#SUI
$SUI
👇If I were to write a strategy, I would set one rule: if the stock token collateral expands, record it as an "increase in capital usage scenarios," not directly as a positive signal. Lighter recently added 12 new stock tokens as collateral on Robinhood Chain, bringing the total number of listed stock tokens to 23.🤖
As a quantitative newbie, what I care more about is: with more varieties, will the risk become harder to calculate? The benefit is that users holding the new collateral have more usage channels; the downside is that multiple stocks do not equal multiple independent risks. If they move in the same direction, the seemingly diversified collateral basket may still face pressure together. This is my speculation and does not represent something that has already happened.
So I would add one observation condition: after expansion, whether the collateral assets are concentrated in a few stocks, rather than just the number of new additions. If you were to write this condition, would you look at the proportion of a single stock or the correlation between stocks?$ETH just after 2 PM, exactly the time when your eyelids are drooping and you want to grab some afternoon tea to recharge. I casually checked the contract data of these popular altcoins, and wow, it almost shocked me awake! These coins are plunging like a waterfall below, and the most ridiculous thing is that retail bulls are still frantically bottom-fishing!
First, look at $ZEC, current price 1132, which has plummeted 11% today. But if you look closely at the 4-hour long-short ratio, it’s still 1.91. Despite falling to this terrible state, retail investors are still buying, and all the chips are in the bulls’ hands. The big players’ scythe is specially designed to cut down all dissenters. Don’t think you can buy just because it’s dropped a lot.
Next, $HYPE, current price 83.5, the previous hype has completely dissipated. Now it’s a slow decline at a high level, with a long-short ratio of 1.94. The open interest keeps refusing to drop, bulls are holding positions stubbornly below. The big players have finished distributing chips at the high level, now it’s a dull knife cutting flesh—whoever goes in gets trapped.
The most outrageous is $UNI, current price 6.97, the most crowded leverage in the market, with a 4-hour long-short ratio as high as 2.04. The daily chart keeps falling without stopping, retail investors buy more as it falls, and all the leverage is crowded on the bullish side. As soon as the market trembles even a little, this coin will definitely be the first to be pulled out as a sacrifice, with a downward spike ready to trigger.
To sum up, the current market is a panic sell-off that hasn’t fully played out, leverage hasn’t been cleaned out, and catching the fall is purely stubborn. Watch more, act less.
Which of these three struggling brothers do you hold? Are you prepared to hold on to the end, or are you rushing to cut losses and run?
#US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations Afternoon of 2026-11-03 $ETH is roughly in the $2248–$2262 range
Price is weak, but the divergence between fundamentals and macro capital flow is deepening.
ETF funds continue to outflow: In October, spot ETH ETF net outflow was about $1.61 billion, the worst single-month performance since launch; as of October 30, ETH ETF single-day net outflow was about $156 million, and the capital flow has not stabilized.
Aftermath of Binance hack: Since Binance resumed withdrawals, cumulative net outflow reached $4.72 billion, about 3% of platform assets; the platform has replenished about 95% of affected assets with its own funds, but customer funds are still withdrawing.
Macro environment pressure: US tech stocks turned down in the afternoon, the market is re-evaluating AI capital expenditure and returns; the upcoming US midterm elections also bring new policy expectation changes for risk assets.
Strong on-chain fundamentals: Ethereum ecosystem active addresses hit a record high (15.4M), Gas fees are at historic lows (about 10.4 Gwei), RWA market exceeds $38 billion, JPMorgan has expanded JPM Coin to Ethereum.
Resistance above: $2,370–$2,390; if volume increases and price stands back above, the rebound will be more convincing.
Support below: $2,160–$2,200 (200-day moving average about $2,158); if broken, $1,950 may be tested
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Funding rate turns negative, ETH hides a bearish trap 📉
$ETH funding rate hits -0.0000299 /8h, shorts are crowded, the apparent selling pressure seems to have been digested, and the price has a slight rebound.
But here is a core point easily overlooked: Ethereum spot ETF hit a record in October, with about $1.6 billion outflow in a single month, and the outflow trend is forming.
Compared to a short squeeze driven by crowded shorts, the probability of spot buying power fading is higher, making the likelihood of ETH continuing a slow bearish decline greater.Scared because I shorted at 87000, 84000, 80000, and 78500?
Don't worry! I'm going long now! Publicly setting up BTC long positions!
Why enter long at 72888? Technically, 72888 is a strong chip concentration zone after an extremely deep drop. BTC has been hammered down from the 80,000 level; if it really reaches around 72,000, it means panic sellers have been completely wiped out, and leveraged longs are basically annihilated. Buying chips with losses at this position has minimal defense space, maximizing the risk-reward ratio.
Looking at the capital and bottom cards: Strategy's overall position cost is about $75,446. If the price drops to 72,888, it means breaking through the world's largest long position defense line. Big funds will definitely use spot holdings to defend in this deep water zone to protect the market, and will never allow the price to collapse easily. Plus, after continuous sharp drops, short-term technical indicators are severely oversold, and a retaliatory rebound repair could come at any time.
Order placement method is fixed: place a long order directly at 72888; if it continues to dip to 72500, add another position. Stop loss is strictly set below 71500; a valid break means the large-scale structure has completely collapsed, so unconditionally admit defeat and exit, never hold the position. The first target is 74500; if broken, look to 75500 or even 76800. At 74500, close most of the position to lock in profits, and move the stop loss up for the remaining.
If the price hasn't reached the position, just hold cash and watch the show. Wait for that big bloody bearish candle to break through, then we enter to take profits. Follow the discipline. $BTC At the same price level, some people have already worn down a large portion of their principal by going back and forth. Have you ever had that feeling: the price barely moves, but your account keeps shrinking? Just now, when reviewing the market situation, I noticed this detail and was stunned for a moment. A certain trader entered and exited the semiconductor and storage line seven times; the price basically remained the same as a few days ago, but the cumulative loss has already reached 26 million USD. Breaking it down is even more interesting: SOXL 4,897 units, opening price 81.6, unrealized loss of over a thousand dollars; xKORU 8,157 units, opening price 11.6, unrealized gain of over a thousand; SKHY 649 units, opening price 156.9, unrealized loss of about five hundred. None of these single trades are exaggerated, but after seven round trips, the numbers look like this. I stared at these lines for a long time because this is not a matter of directional judgment, but of timing and position sizing. The price returning to the starting point indicates the market has not moved in a one-sided trend; what is truly being consumed is the trader's volume and patience. Every entry and exit incurs costs, and every "try again" amplifies exposure. From the perspective of derivative structures, this repeated in-and-out often corresponds to amplified losses in leveraged products. SOXL, a triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF, suffers continuous erosion from volatility in a choppy market; even if the underlying index returns to its original level, the net asset value may not recover. The same applies to xKORU. This is not simply "wrong directional calls," but the product structure itself eats away in a sideways market. Thinking deeper, this case actually reflects a facet of the current risk appetite: people are willing to in semi-conductor... The probability of the Democratic Party taking both houses exceeds 75%, and what Musk needs to guard against is not the stock price, but the hearings.
According to prediction markets, the probability of the Democratic Party simultaneously taking both the Senate and the House is about 76.5%. The US votes today, and the results will be clear by tomorrow morning Beijing time. Old Bull doesn't take sides on who wins or loses; he only watches Musk.
According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have long stated that if they take the House, they will investigate Musk's time at the Office of Government Efficiency, the contracts SpaceX signed with the government, and the clean energy subsidies Tesla has received. It was disclosed that Trump mentioned late Monday night Beijing time that he could preemptively pardon government staff if necessary. Speaking of Musk, he said this was just talk but that relevant people need protection.
Old Bull's interpretation: first distinguish which is emotion and which is the threshold. Hearings and subpoenas are emotional; they can last two years but cannot change the launch orders SpaceX has already signed. The real threshold is government contracts and subsidy money, which depends on how the subsequent appropriations are negotiated.
According to US stock market data, SPCX closed at 136.37 on Monday, and TSLA closed at 403.82; according to contract data, the two perpetual contracts are currently around 136.9 and 401.7 respectively, with no major moves ahead of the election.
The risk lies on the day the results come out; both stocks may first be driven by emotion for a while, and the noisier the news, the greater the volatility. The short-term long position on SPCX around 138.6 is still held as usual; Old Bull neither adds to the position nor opens a new one. The above is Old Bull's market notes before the vote, purely business, not politics. $BTC $ZEC $UNI 8th Anniversary, Founder Shares Five Sets of Data
On UNI's 8th anniversary, the founder shared several sets of data, containing a wealth of information.
1. The ratio of DEX to CEX trading volume has grown from 0 to 40%.
Decentralized exchanges are moving from the fringe to the mainstream; a 40% share is already a force that cannot be ignored.
2. UNI's spot trading volume is already equivalent to 31% of a certain exchange.
Hayden believes that if this number reaches 50%, UNI has the chance to become the world's largest trading venue.
3. In Q3 2026, there are 14,000 assets on Uniswap, with single-asset 30-day trading volumes exceeding $100,000.
This indicates that long-tail asset trading is very active, and UNI's position as the preferred platform for "new asset cold starts" remains solid.
4. Over the past approximately one and a half years, RWA trading on UNI has grown by 9,000%.
RWA (Real World Assets) is the hottest direction in this cycle; a 9000% increase shows UNI is rapidly capturing market share in tokenized asset trading.
5. Hooks on UNI v4 now account for 11% of protocol trading volume and are still growing rapidly.
The v4 Hook architecture is being adopted by more and more users; innovations like permissioned pools and dynamic fees are becoming Uniswap's new growth engines.
Eight years ago, the challenge was centralized exchanges.
Eight years later, the real opportunity to challenge lies in the trading infrastructure of traditional financial markets. 🔍 $504 million is still locked in the Optimism Bridge. What I want to check more is: has the "passage" of this bridge been affected? According to DefiLlama, its TVL has decreased over the week and is also dropping daily, but the material clearly states that fund inflows and outflows as well as price fluctuations can cause changes.
Don't rush to conclusions. I think for ordinary cross-chain users, whether withdrawals are smooth is more important than the ranking of locked assets.
An interesting detail here: the material provides the scale of funds but does not give withdrawal times, so the TVL decline cannot be directly judged as a problem with the bridge.
This is my speculation: if funds are indeed continuously withdrawing and withdrawals are slowing down, then this news might turn from emotional noise into a warning about user experience. I will continue to monitor withdrawal status and times, first separating the lines of "less money" and "bridge not working well."Three Scenario Trading Map for Both Chambers
JPMorgan provides probabilities: Democrats sweep both chambers at 66%, Republicans hold both chambers at only 7%. A low probability does not mean little market impact—Republicans holding both chambers is actually most favorable for US stocks.
The reason lies in policy continuity. If Republicans retain both chambers, AI infrastructure, deregulation of energy, and tax cut momentum will likely continue, congressional investigation risks will decrease, and uncertainty premiums will quickly recede. JPMorgan expects the S&P to rise 1%–1.25%. Corresponding actions: S&P target 7600–7700, BTC surges to 80,000, Brent crude oil falls back near 90, gold falls back to 3800–3900, buy on dips in tech infrastructure and energy.
If Democrats sweep, investigation authority and expectations for AI and crypto regulation will intensify, friction with the Trump administration will escalate, and volatility will likely remain high. The S&P may retest 7300–7400, BTC may fall below 75,000, Brent crude oil may surge above 100, gold may rise to 4100.
A divided Congress is a middle ground: executive policies are hard to be completely overturned, but regulatory and investigation intensity will be between the two extremes, with the market focusing more on policy tug-of-war.
Regardless of the outcome, the real pricing factor is not who shouts the loudest, but how control changes regulation, investigation, and policy rhythm. Scenario simulation, not investment advice.
$BTC $BZ $XAU
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 美国中期选举进入关键时刻，摩根大通对国会未来四种权力格局进行了推演。值得注意的是，最可能发生的结果，并不意味着市场反应最强。 根据11月1日的预测市场数据，民主党同时控制参众两院的隐含概率约66%，民主党拿下众议院、共和党保住参议院约26%，共和党守住两院约7%，共和党控制众议院、民主党控制参议院仅约1%。 摩根大通预计，四种情景下标普500的潜在表现分别为： 民主党控制两院：-0.25%至+0.5%。市场可能担忧AI监管和数据中心政策，但总统否决权构成重要制约。 民主党控制众议院、共和党控制参议院：+0.5%至+1%。权力分散可能限制重大政策推进，市场或将其视为短期利好。 共和党守住两院：+1%至+1.25%。政策延续性较强，但财政赤字扩大可能推高长期美债收益率。 共和党控制众议院、民主党控制参议院：+0.25%至+0.75%。预算争斗和政府停摆风险可能重新进入市场视野。 这组数据对加密市场有什么启示？ 第一，关注美债收益率。财政支出预期变化可能影响长期利率，进而改变美元流动性和风险资产估值。第二，关注AI科技股。AI投资情绪若降温，可能通过纳指和整体风险偏好传导至加密市场。第三，关First, consider the worst-case scenario: my concern is not that no one visits the website, but that someone reads "targeted at the public sector" as "government endorsement," and then takes risks based on that expectation. Having done risk control, I am quite sensitive to this kind of cognitive leap.
The Ethereum Foundation has launched a dedicated website for the public sector, aimed at governments, multilateral organizations, NGOs, and other public welfare institutions. It provides accessible explanations of Ethereum, real-world case studies, and practical resources, introducing its potential as digital public infrastructure.
My judgment is that this helps the public sector understand Ethereum, but it is insufficient to prove new demand. ⚠️ There are two risks: presenting potential does not equal a commitment to adoption by institutions; existing cases cannot directly prove replication across different organizations, as compliance requirements and implementation conditions remain uncertain.
For ordinary people, my risk control advice is to separately record "confirmed facts" and "personal speculation." I will continue to look for concrete evidence of adoption and not substitute dissemination progress for actual implementation progress.*Institutions have exited, retail investors are taking over*
ETF: Outflow of 643 million on October 30 → Only 6.7 million returned by November 2, BlackRock 0
Attitude: No movement is an attitude
Retail investors: BTC long-short ratio 2.65, ETH 2.68, desperately opening longs
Institutions withdraw, retail rush in → Who is the fuel?