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AAVE has also started making money.
Finally, it didn't break below my position at 166, I was worried I might have to stop loss early.
It's good that it didn't break below; it has been strengthening throughout the evening.
As long as AAVE's 157 level doesn't break, the overall bullish trend on the 4H timeframe won't disappear.
Whether the 166 level breaks or not depends on another layer of risk assessment.
Since this is a public post about my operations, I have stricter stop loss requirements.
The 166 level is a support point from stabilizing after a sharp drop, forming a new 1H bullish structure. Therefore, if I buy wrong, stopping loss at 166 results in minimal loss. I believe many brothers copied this strategy, so stopping loss at AAVE's 166 won't make them blame me.
I hope I'm right this time, but of course, it depends on the market. The market is always the boss; only when it says so is it really so. What I say doesn't count.
Brothers, do you think it counts? HahaCore narrative: BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi) track, unique Satoshi Plus consensus, combining Bitcoin hash power + PoS to secure the network, focusing on staking idle BTC for interest, with a token CORE cap of 2.1 billion tokens (equivalent to BTC's 21 million). ✅ Bullish logic (advantages) 1. Scarce track narrative BTCFi has been one of the main themes in the crypto world in recent years, attracting many Bitcoin miners and BTC whales interested; Its dual staking mechanism: staking CORE yields higher BTC staking yields, theoretically generating sustained demand for CORE. The official 2026 roadmap focuses on ecosystem yield buybacks of CORE, no longer relying solely on inflation burning, aiming to build a revenue-supported token model. 2. EVM compatibility with low entry barrier: Ethereum developers can directly deploy contracts, with ecosystem directions focused on BTC lending, BTC liquid staking, RWA, and payments (SatPay), positioned as Bitcoin's smart contract chain. 3. Miner community foundation: Early on, many BTC miners participated in consensus, which is a differentiation other BTCFi projects (Babylon, Stacks) do not have; Many custodians and institutional service providers have joined to offer BTC staking solutions. ⚠️ Very tough risks (also the biggest constraint on prospects, the point you previously cared about) 1. Validator node decentralization controversy + official node exit incident There have been official cases beforeI've dismantled too many projects that look splendid on paper but whose load-bearing walls are all just bubbles—$DOGE is exactly that kind of flashy, lively-looking but structurally unsound unfinished framework. It rose 5.43% in 24H, but don't be fooled by the surface gloss; this is a typical decorative facade facelift, not a foundation reinforcement.
First, look at the mid-term Bollinger Bands position: the price has already reached 92% of the upper range, with only 0.7% margin to the upper band, while the lower side is suspended by 8.4%—it's like pressing the floor slab on a small beam that has already yielded, causing severe eccentric loading. The short-term cycle is even more dangerous, at 72% position, only 1.0% from the upper edge, but with 2.6% collapse space below. The short-term RSI is 67.9, approaching the overbought warning line at 64 and heading toward the critical point of 70, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3—the mid-term framework hasn't kept up at all, and the upper structure is entirely propped up by short-term sentiment. This is the most typical sign of eccentric compression shear failure.
My judgment: the load path of this blueprint is fundamentally invalid; it's best to exit first.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.08 (current price +3.4%, i.e., the first false breakout counterattack after losing the upper Bollinger Band)
Take Profit 1: $0.07 (-4.9%, pulling back to the midline for support)
Take Profit 2: $0.07 (-7.7%, probing the load-bearing layer at the lower Bollinger Band)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (-14.3%, if a true breakout above the upper band occurs, the structure must be re-evaluated; decisively abandon the chart)
Remember, the entry is set 3.4% above the current price, waiting for it to finish building the last false floor before shorting—not chasing the drop, but waiting for the critical point of structural instability. The stop loss margin is 14.3% because this kind of sentiment-driven rally sometimes adds one more layer, but the load-bearing ratio absolutely does not support further upward construction.
I don't care how many neon lights are stuck on the curtain wall; as long as the load-bearing system is hollow, the taller the building, the cleaner the collapse. #coinmovealertA large order worth $330 million, but they took the back door
A whale selling coins, yet the market shows no movement. This is worth discussing.
On October 8th, the official Hyperliquid team unlocked 3.75 million $HYPE tokens, roughly $330 million. My first reaction was, it's over, they're going to dump the market. When the notification popped up, I was cooking noodles in the kitchen; after reading the first paragraph, the noodles in the pot were already burnt.
But after reading the second paragraph, I scooped up the noodles and kept eating.
They didn’t sell on the market at all. It was an over-the-counter transaction; the entire order was sold to an institution, and some tokens were re-staked.
In plain language: an institution was willing to quietly take $330 million worth of tokens off the market in one go, without disturbing the market price. If no one believed in it, who would take such a large position?
My attitude hasn’t changed; I even feel a bit amused. Retail investors panic watching the market, while institutions line up off-market to buy. The more I think about this picture, the more reassured I feel.
Of course, I was also nervous. During those five minutes cooking noodles, I even rehearsed the gesture of cutting losses.
Later I realized: a large order taking the back door means they don’t want to dump the price at the front door.
Faith isn’t about not being afraid; it’s about being afraid but still holding on.One year ago today, the biggest liquidation in crypto history.
Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 dollars to over 80,000 now, altcoins are still searching for a bottom.
Brothers who were liquidated that day, are you still trading contracts?
How much did you lose that day? $GRASS long position held, 20x leverage, floating profit 86.43%.
Bottom consolidation lasted for a long time, after sufficient chip exchange, the bullish market officially started.
Price gradually breaks away from the cost range, volume continues to follow, upward structure is complete.
Once the trend is formed, do not be easily shaken out by minor intraday fluctuations.
Keep a close eye on support levels, dynamically adjust the defense line to protect existing profits. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $MAGIC $ZEC (October 11):
Volatility: Bollinger Band width is only about $22, one-ninth of what it was on October 8
Price: 1,235.08, squeezed between the middle band at 1,228 and the upper band at 1,239
RSI(6): 58.24, neither hot nor cold
Funds: ETF weekly outflow dropped from $93.56 million to about $12.05 million from this week to Wednesday
Diagnosis: Selling pressure is easing, but no one is willing to make the first move yet. Direction awaits a breakout.Sei is a high-performance L1 public chain focused on trading, positioned specifically for order book DEXs, contract trading, and high-frequency on-chain trading, directly competing with Sui, Aptos, and Solana. ✅ Highlights (bullish logic) 1. Differentiated positioning: Not an all-powerful public chain, focusing on on-chain trading. Native parallel execution and fast endgame—originally Twin-Turbo consensus, now fully pushing for a major upgrade of Sei Giga, targeting 200,000 TPS and 250ms endgame, and adding a Sedna privacy transaction layer to resist MEV and attract institutional-level on-chain transaction demand. 2. Architecture Transformation (SIP-3): Shifting from Cosmos SDK to a pure EVM chain, disabling CosmWasm and shutting down IBC cross-chain. Advantages: Ethereum developers can migrate directly, Solidity contracts can be deployed with one click, and the development threshold is low; Disadvantages: Completely detached from the Cosmos ecosystem, losing the original IBC assets and Cosmos community foundation. 3. Clear ecosystem direction: Focus on order book DEX, perpetual contracts, RWA, prediction markets (previously cooperated with Kalshi), oracles like Chainlink and Pyth have already been integrated, suitable for latency-sensitive trading DeFi. 4. Strong institutional financing background Early funding lineup is good; the track narrative is easily hyped by capital during bull markets, but very flexible when crypto is strong. ⚠️ Core risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects).CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations
This week's inflation data will be a key variable for $BTC and $ETH. If CPI and PPI continue to rise, market concerns about further Fed rate hikes may intensify, and risk assets could come under pressure again.
From the market perspective, BTC is currently fluctuating around $83,000, with some short-term support, but there is resistance around $83,150–$83,200. ETH is tugging back and forth near $2,500, without a clear direction for now.
My view is not to rush into chasing gains or cutting losses before the data release. If inflation exceeds expectations, focus on whether BTC can hold $82,700 and ETH can hold $2,495; if the data cools down, easing market concerns about rate hikes, there will be a chance to continue testing higher.
The short-term focus is not on guessing the data but on watching how prices move after the data is released. Once a key level is broken with volume, then consider following up; this is more prudent than betting on direction in advance.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations
#Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? Soared 8% then instantly dropped! How many people chasing highs got trapped in this "fake breakout" of ARB?
Brothers, this afternoon ARB suddenly surged 8%, the group chat instantly exploded. Someone was waving a screenshot of Standard Chartered Bank's "$10 target price" shouting "ARB is about to take off independently, the bull will return quickly." And what happened? It softened right at 0.203, now it’s crashed back to 0.197, all the people chasing highs are stuck on the peak catching the wind.
Why is this rally so fake? Let me break it down for you:
First, look at the CVD data. The price is clearly rising, but CVD is massively flowing out over $1.8 million! The bottom row is all pink active sell bars. What does this mean? It means the manipulator is moving chips from left hand to right hand to pump the price, while secretly selling with the right hand, and retail investors are wildly catching falling knives down below!
Second, can the fundamentals really support this? Standard Chartered’s call and Robinhood bringing in commission income sound sexy. But don’t forget, on October 23rd, about 139 million ARB tokens will be unlocked! At this low price, why would the main players pump the price to help you break even? Of course, it’s to raise the price before the unlock and distribute chips!
Right now, ARB has fallen below all short-term moving averages (EMA5/10/20), RSI has turned down from the overbought zone, a classic "bull trap" pattern. Bottom fishing now is just giving the manipulators a holiday bonus.
#ARB #BTC #cryptocurrency #liquidation #bulltrap Offering higher priority fees can only increase the chances, not guarantee purchase certainty.
Priority fees are tips given by the sender to the block proposer to express the urgency of the transaction. Increasing the tip usually makes the transaction more attractive, but it is not a "ticket" guaranteeing inclusion in the next block. Proposers also consider whether the transaction is valid, nonce order, Gas usage, block construction strategy, and whether other transaction combinations can create higher value.
If the previous nonce is not yet confirmed, subsequent transactions may continue to wait even if they offer higher tips; if the transaction simulation fails, builders are not obligated to include it. When dealing with private order flows or complex arbitrage, ordering is not determined solely by individual priority fees. It is more accurate to understand "acceleration" as an increase in probability rather than a service guarantee.
This also explains why blindly raising fees during congestion often wastes $ETH. What users really need is to first confirm the transaction status, nonce, and base fee range before deciding whether to replace it, rather than continuously broadcasting multiple conflicting versions. Even if the bid is high enough, the transaction itself will not be revived by fees if it does not meet execution conditions. Ethereum's fee market allows bidding but does not sell absolute certainty; final confirmation is still jointly determined by block rules and construction results.STRK $STRK – Monitoring Levels STRK has seen a rise of almost 100% this week, directly entering a key historical resistance level. Levels to watch $0.1159 – Key resistance. It needs to be regained and held above it. $0.1398 – Next resistance. $0.1552 – Key resistance. $0.0521 – Previous resistance, which may turn into support. $0.0291 – Key support. Several weekly fair value gaps (FVG) remain below the current price, providing potential areas of interest during the correction. My opinion despite this remarkable movement, STRK is still facing historical resistance. It will strengthen the price$CFX has another change this year that many people might not have noticed.
Conflux adjusted its network economic parameters in 2026, reducing the PoW block reward from 0.8 CFX per block to 0.4 CFX, a direct 50% cut.
At the same time, the storage points conversion ratio was increased from 63% to 78%.
$CFX itself features a hybrid PoW and PoS mechanism; besides new issuance, there is also a token burn mechanism related to transaction base fees and storage.
This means the supply structure of CFX is already different from before.
Of course, reducing PoW rewards does not equal an overall reduction in token supply; PoS rewards and actual burn amounts also need to be considered together.
But if on-chain activity increases later, the burn mechanism plays a bigger role, and combined with market capital inflows, the price performance of CFX is worth reevaluating.
I have not changed my target of $0.25 for now. I think we shouldn't assume that BTC hitting bottom on exchanges means an immediate surge. According to CryptoQuant, about 2.68 million BTC is the lowest level since 2023, and the spot price around $83,028 is still consolidating (Beijing 21:28, Coinbase).