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Toncoin ($TON)
📱 Messaging platforms and blockchain technology could create new ways for people to access digital services. Toncoin is connected to an ecosystem with a strong focus on Telegram-related applications. The challenge is turning a large potential audience into active blockchain users. Could messaging apps become the easiest gateway into crypto?BTC is currently at 77379.9, with MA20 at 80260.1.
Pressure hasn't broken; it's too early to talk about a reversal.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for 65.5 million USD, then used 208 million USD to repurchase preferred shares.
Where the money comes from and where it goes is very clear.
The treasury strategy has already split.
Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, backed by 15% annualized SATS preferred share financing.
BitMine acquired 8573 ETH, bringing holdings to 6.06 million.
Metaplanet repaid 50.64 million USD debt, raising the coin purchase budget to 212 million.
Some are borrowing to expand the balance sheet, others are reducing burdens first.
They are not collectively pushing the market up; each is making their own allocation.
ETH is now down -0.52%, BTC down -0.37%.
Ethereum is weaker, and this is no coincidence.
Institutions are accumulating, but the market may not follow the rise.
When BTC turns, ETH usually crashes first; when BTC rebounds, ETH mostly follows.
It currently has no independent mainline, only dependency. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ The strength or weakness of the $BTC US dollar is the core anchor affecting BTC's medium- to long-term trend, and this US election will directly determine the future tone of US dollar monetary policy. If subsequent loose fiscal policies are implemented, it will likely suppress the US dollar index, benefiting BTC and other non-US scarce assets to rise; if it leans toward tightening regulation, it will temporarily suppress risk asset valuations.
Currently, the market is in an expectation game phase, with small fluctuations in the US dollar index driving BTC to oscillate back and forth, and the market's ups and downs completely follow macro sentiment. Compared to short-term fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the policy $ implementation pace after the election, which will determine BTC's overall trend direction in the fourth quarter. $ZEC $SOL CoinMarketCap's report says Bitcoin open interest contracts have dropped to a 12-month low of $284.1 billion
It sounds like the market has lightened up, but the remaining batch of longs are still paying an extremely expensive "toll" — the funding rate remains stuck at a 90-day high (about 0.93 basis points), even higher than the previous week
The total leverage has decreased, but the remaining position costs have become more expensive, and as soon as some fall, others immediately fill in
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen outflows of $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone experiencing 10 consecutive days of outflows, totaling over $2.24 billion
However, whales are adding positions against the trend, with total holdings rising to 3.03 million coins, the fastest pace since February this year
The most critical level now is $76,000
This is the average cost line for short-term holders, whose unrealized gains are currently only about 2%. If these holders shift from slight profits to losses, it could easily trigger sell-offs
As long as the $76,000 barrier is not broken, the market will continue to grind within this narrow range; once broken, the next deep support zone is between $73,000 and $74,000
$BTC #BTC range consolidationSei ($SEI)
⚡ Trading-focused blockchain infrastructure is an interesting niche in the crypto market. Sei has been designed around performance and applications that need fast execution. Its long-term opportunity depends on active users and sustainable applications. Would you choose a specialized trading chain over a general-purpose blockchain?Staring at the K-line for half a day is not as useful as looking at today's news mentioning the "NU7 developer controversy".
This is the real reason behind ZEC's sharp drop.
Technical breakdowns can be charted, but a fundamental trust crisis is fatal.
The community is bickering over the developers' interests, and big investors seeing this kind of news react by retreating without regard to cost.
Look at the market: the price has plunged directly from the high of 1398 to 1195, with the moving averages above pressing down hard. Every very slight rebound is just supplying bullets to the bears.
Currently, 65% of the market is shorting, which shows that the smart money has long understood this game and is following the trend to push the price down.
The current 1195 is definitely not the bottom, just a resting point in the downtrend.
As long as it dares to weakly rebound, that will be our best opportunity to enter a high short position.
Face reality and don't fight the trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The current BTC market has entered a typical policy-driven phase, with technical trends fully following the fluctuations of U.S. election public opinion and policy expectations. The crypto-friendliness of the campaign camps, attitudes toward digital currency regulation, and the direction of White House fiscal policy directly influence the institutional capital's position timing.
Historical cycle data shows that during the U.S. election window, global risk asset volatility tends to decline in phases, with capital preferring to lock in profits and reduce aggressive speculation. This is the core reason why BTC has struggled to break out of its range recently. In the short term, the market lacks clear negative catalysts to trigger a sell-off and also lacks strong catalysts for a breakout rally. Overall, it is mainly consolidating to digest positions and waiting for macro developments to materialize. $ETH $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ As of Q2 2026, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year. The numbers look impressive. But total revenue and reserve income in Q2 were only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year.
Transaction volume rose 151%, but revenue only increased by 7%. The issue lies in the revenue structure: about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while transfer fees in Q2 were only $5.3 million — $14.8 trillion in transaction volume generated just $5.3 million in revenue. USDC has grown, but Circle still earns money from "U.S. Treasury bond coupons," not from the "stablecoin network effect."
The real profit bottleneck: distribution costs consume nearly 60% of revenue
In the first half of 2026, Circle generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which $819 million (nearly 59%) was directly paid to distribution partners and transaction costs. This means that for every $1 of revenue, only about 7 cents remain as net profit.A full review of my ICNT one-hour triple trade strategy: suitable for oscillation breakout + up-and-down retracement cycle trades
1. First, we can see the big trend is a box range oscillation. When I saw ® a large volume bullish candle breaking out of the box, I predicted this bullish candle wouldn't be a one-time explosion. After the breakout, there might be a chance for a pullback order block, so I prepared to place a long order in advance at 0.2243 (this position is the breakout order block/upper edge support of the box).
2. After placing the order, I noticed the price quickly surged, giving no chance for a pullback to place orders, so I immediately chased long at market price to ensure I didn't miss out.
BOS breakout, time to take profit!
3. After entering the long position: when the price hit a new high, I set a take profit for half the position to secure some gains—now I could confidently set a stop loss on the remaining half to ride the trend; just as I thought, it surged to a high then exhausted, showing a shooting star (which I've noticed several times while watching the market these days), a sign of stagnation, so I reversed to short and continued to profit!
4. Set the short target properly! It just hit the key support at 0.2243 again, took profit and exited perfectly; and this position was also where I had placed a long order in advance, so I entered long again.
Yay!
5. Finally, reviewing the trades, ICNT had three consecutive profitable waves: breakout long, high position short, support long again—three smooth transitions with good profits.
Dear friend! Follow me to take profits, have you learned it well?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) Short, Medium, and Long-Term Outlook
✅Short term 0–1 year: Interest rate competition dominates, fundamentals await earnings verification
The short-term focus is on Federal Reserve interest rates, USDC circulation scale, and cost control. The company's revenue heavily depends on reserve interest; in a rate cut environment, growth in USDC circulation is needed to offset declining yields, and distribution cost control is key to profitability. USDC's compliance advantage can retain institutional clients but faces fierce competition from USDT. The Q3 earnings report is a crucial test.
✅Medium term 1–3 years: Success depends on the second growth curve
The next 1–3 years are a transition window. Circle cannot remain just an interest-earning stablecoin issuer; the focus is on whether businesses like CPN payments, on-chain infrastructure, and real asset tokenization can take off to increase non-interest income share. Successful new business will lead to valuation reshaping; slow progress will firmly cap valuation, while also needing to guard against competition from traditional financial giants entering the space.
✅Long term 3+ years: Competing for digital dollar infrastructure influence
The long-term space comes from the trends of digital assets, cross-border settlement, and asset tokenization. Circle's biggest moat is its first-mover advantage and compliance qualifications, aiming to become the global digital dollar underlying infrastructure. The biggest risks come from various countries' CBDCs, large banks' proprietary stablecoins, and diverse regulatory policies worldwide. Whether it can solidify ecosystem standards will determine its long-term value. Celestia ($TIA)
🧩 Blockchain modularity is changing how developers think about building networks. Celestia focuses on data availability, allowing other blockchain systems to build with more flexibility. The idea could support a wider range of specialized chains. Do you believe modular blockchains are the future of Web3?There is a glaring short position of 250,000 $SOL on the $SOL chain, with the liquidation line at 123.
Below, large funds keep supporting the spot market, making it impossible to crash.
Such a huge target hanging overhead—how could the main players on the market possibly ignore it?
The shorts are still holding hard; as soon as there's a slight pull-up touching the edge, triggering forced liquidation, 250,000 buy orders will chase the market price to repurchase, all becoming fuel for an upward surge.
#SOL
$SOL
👇👇#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle will release its earnings report before the market opens on November 4, with the core test being whether USDC's scale growth can translate into profits. Growth remains strong: USDC circulation is about $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with a market share of about 25%, driven by compliance and payment scenarios. However, the revenue side faces dual pressures: about 95% of income comes from reserve interest, with reserve yields having dropped from 4.16% to 3.5%. In Q1, circulation increased by 39% but reserve income only rose by 17%; distribution costs are high, with $405 million paid to partners in Q1 (about $330 million to Coinbase). In Q2, distribution costs accounted for 46% of revenue, leaving only about 7 cents net profit per $1 revenue in the first half of the year. Market expectations for Q3 revenue are $789 million to $797 million, with EPS of $0.38 to $0.40. Morgan Stanley is cautious, with a target price of $34 and a reduce rating, believing that slowing growth and rising distribution costs outweigh the benefits of forward yields; optimists also think a significant beat is unlikely, with the main theme still being "volume up, profit not up." Therefore, the key is not whether USDC's scale expands, but how much profit remains after incremental interest covers yield declines and revenue sharing; if scale growth slows, the vulnerability of the single-interest model becomes more prominent, making transformation progress more worth watching.U.S. stock perpetual contracts no longer need to be viewed only through offshore platforms.
The U.S. CFTC has approved the compliant listing of U.S. stock perpetual contracts in the U.S., marking the first time stock perpetuals enter the U.S. regulatory framework. For traders, compliance with margin, clearing, and investor protection is simultaneously accessible, which may increase the willingness of institutions and market makers to participate.
In the short term, the first-mover advantage of offshore platforms relying on listing stock perpetuals to attract traffic will be weakened, and similar contracts on platforms like Bitget may face diversion in trading volume and funding rates; in the medium to long term, the official acceptance of perpetuals as a leverage tool in the U.S. is a positive factor for the crypto derivatives narrative. Tokens without direct benefits should watch the scope of the first approved contracts, leverage limits, and launch timing.
If only the framework is approved but products are delayed, the hype will quickly fade. Are you more concerned about the list of underlying assets in the first batch of contracts, or whether compliant venues can build sufficient depth?
Source: BlockBeats📊 Traditional Finance/Compliance Testing: XRP, OKB, BCH — Three rhythms, one narrative.
$XRP: Strong at the company level, softer at the token level. The 3x ETF is postponed to November 30; the SEC custody letter on October 20 hinted that after the CLARITY Act is implemented, more XRP will be unlocked for RLUSD liquidity. OCC trust + FSOC are long-term positives. If $1.25 doesn't hold, the next level to watch is $1.10.
$OKB: Purely defensive. No catalysts, no supply shocks, and can even absorb overflow funds. Suitable to hold as a buffer.
$BCH: Slow lane. CME is already listed, Grayscale S-3 progress is slow — steady around $284 for 284 days.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $BTC November 4 BTC daily analysis!
From the high of 87395, the price fell, breaking below the Bollinger middle band at 80414, approaching the key support at the lower band 76341.
MACD is in a bearish death cross state, RSI at 36.81 is not yet deeply oversold, still with downside risk.
Key support is at 76341; if it holds, a rebound is expected; primary resistance is at 80414, only by stabilizing above this level can the correction pattern be reversed.
Next is the US midterm elections,
The early voting on November 4 may trigger intense volatility; bearish news could break support, bullish news could drive a rebound.
Positioning should closely monitor the gain or loss of the 76341 support, and prepare profit-taking and stop-loss plans in advance. Pyth Network ($PYTH)
📈 Accurate market data is essential for decentralized applications. Pyth Network focuses on providing price information to blockchain platforms and financial applications. Reliable data can help smart contracts make better decisions, but oracle security remains crucial. Do you think decentralized applications can succeed without trustworthy real-time data?Pendle ($PENDLE)
⏳ DeFi is evolving beyond simple token swaps. Pendle focuses on yield trading, allowing users to separate and trade future yield from underlying assets. This creates new strategies for managing risk and potential returns. As DeFi becomes more sophisticated, tools like this could attract experienced users. Would you use a platform that lets you trade future yield?The current macroeconomic picture is sending mixed signals. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5, above expectations, suggesting stronger economic activity. However, its price index remained elevated at 75.2, while September core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%, indicating that inflationary pressure remains a concern. As a result, market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December have reportedly climbed to 70%. ▪ Key Nonfarm Payrolls Expectations • Expected job growth$ETH's market just pushed up steadily, retracing back near 2300. The contract open interest barely moved within a few hours, which made me a bit uneasy. Looking at the whole day, the total open interest is still declining. The funding rate has remained at a normal level. The on-exchange bullish sentiment hasn't risen along with the price.
This rebound pushed the price higher, but the open interest data didn't keep up. The funding rate is very stable, indicating that the active buying volume is not strong. This rise looks more like a passive rebound caused by short covering. Without new capital increasing volume, it's hard to sustain the uptrend relying solely on short covering.
Switching to the daily chart, the current price has reached around 2315. This is a daily swing low with dense resistance above. Several daily EMA lines are still intertwined, making the trend unclear. The 4-hour EMA lines are also trending downward, with multiple layers of resistance overhead.
In the short term, I lean bearish. The current price is right at daily resistance with heavy selling pressure above. The market also lacks large volume orders to support the rise, so it will likely first pull back to test support.
$BTC $SOL #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 🔥 Midterm elections are here, can BTC surge to 85,000? The real opportunity lies in policy expectation gaps!
🟡 Election highlights: Control of the House and Senate will impact tax, regulation, fiscal, and crypto policies over the next two years. Pre-election Reuters surveys and analyses lean toward Democrats vying for the House, while the Senate remains highly uncertain; a Republican sweep is not guaranteed.
🔵 US stocks: If policies continue and regulatory expectations improve, some tech stocks and risk assets may get a boost; if a divided government emerges, the market may reassess fiscal and regulatory risks.
🟢 BTC: 85,000 USD can be a target under optimistic scenarios but is not a guaranteed post-election rally. It also depends on the dollar, US Treasury yields, ETF funds, and spot buying support.
🔴 My judgment: The election is a catalyst, not the trend itself. The real trade-worthy move is the capital reaction after results are finalized, not betting early on a party's victory.
⚠️ Positive news may be priced in early, and the result announcement could see a spike followed by a pullback. Avoid heavy bets on news; wait for the market to show direction before acting.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Ethereum's rebound to $2,317 failed to reach the expected $2,350 resistance, and the price has now pulled back to around $2,243. The recovery is losing momentum, while the 4-hour chart continues to show lower highs. ▪ ETH Technical Outlook The short-term structure remains bearish. Buyers have not shown enough strength to absorb selling pressure from trapped positions above. ▪ Market Signals • BTC has fallen below $77,000. • Long liquidations have exceeded $100 million. • Binance ETH perpetual acHere are 8 revised versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Flavor Optimization*
> They say history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
> When an exchange faces a major incident, is it often the bear market bottom?
> Yahoo Finance compared with FTX: on November 8, 2022, withdrawals were suspended,
> about one year after the 2021 peak, and the crypto market bottomed two weeks later.
> In the following 6 months, total market cap rose 18%, $BTC rose 40%.
> This time Binance was hacked, also about one year after the peak,
> and this round's deepest retracement was only 52%, much shallower than 73% in 2022.
> Still hoping the market will improve!
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> They say history doesn't repeat but often rhymes; major exchange incidents often mark bear bottoms. Yahoo compared FTX: withdrawals suspended on 11/8/22, about one year after 2021 peak, bottomed two weeks later; next 6 months total market cap +18%, BTC +40%. This time Binance hack also about one year post-peak, deepest retracement 52%, shallower than 73% in 2022. Hope the market gets better.
*Version 3 - Trader Style*
> History doesn’t repeat but rhymes; major exchange incidents often mark bear bottoms. Yahoo compared FTX: withdrawals suspended 22.11.8, about one year after 2021 peak, bottomed two weeks later; 6 months later total market cap +18%, BTC +40%. This Binance hack also about one year post-peak; deepest retracement 52%, shallower than 73% in 2022. Looking forward to market recovery.
*Version 4 - Professional*
> They say history doesn’t repeat, but it always rhymes, exchange$ETH whales are accumulating aggressively around $2,279, buying large amounts of spot $ETH and moving them into cold wallets. Meanwhile, shorts remain heavily positioned, paying funding costs to hold their bets. Spot demand is rising while derivatives traders stay bearish. As long as $2,200 holds, a short squeeze could fuel a sharp upside move. $ETH
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Beginner's Diary｜Saylor: Price drop? Then I'll buy some more 🛒😂
Everyone's complaining about the weekly K-line dropping continuously, but Strategy quietly bought another 811 $BTC:
• Spent about 65.5 million USD, with an average price of about 80,846
• Total holdings now at 849,327 coins, with an overall average price of about 75,451
• The money came from selling MSTR stock (source: The Block)
I did the math: this batch was bought at a higher price than their overall average, current price is around 77.6k, so this new batch is temporarily "standing guard" 🧍
But what I learned is not "follow the whale to buy," but: they have their own funding sources and plans, and they execute according to their rhythm even when prices drop; I panic whenever prices fall because I have no plan 😵
Tonight is the US midterm election, and the implied volatility of options has already risen from about 43.5% to about 51% (CoinDesk), so volatility might be high, manage your positions first~
Are you more like Saylor or more like me: want to close the app when prices drop?
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#USMidtermElectionsComingUp, which results are worth watching? #Bitcoin#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Price withstands negative factors, but funds continue to flee?
BTC faces multiple negative factors, with a drop controlled within 3%, stabilizing around 78000, supported by short covering for the rebound.
ETH holds above the 2300 mark, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million, and spot funds continuously withdrawing.
2350 to 2370 is a resistance range where previous rebounds have repeatedly failed; until this is broken, reversal signals are not confirmed.
In a high volatility environment, the margin for error on 100x contracts will be compressed.
Open your position list and check your stop-loss levels for 100x leverage.
Clues have been collected; now waiting for the non-farm payroll and election results to verify.
$BTC $ETH $SOL ⚡ Funding Rate Crowd Check
$BTC: Funding Rate +1.00 bps | 24H +0.22%
$MMT: Funding Rate +0.50 bps | 24H +0.90%
$ALLO: Funding Rate +0.50 bps | 24H +1.66%
$BTC has the most extreme funding rate in this group, indicating that longs are paying the highest cost for leverage.
$MMT $ALLO $BTC
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ Not financial advice — please manage risk and do your own research. AMD has issued two warrants. One was signed with OpenAI in October 2025, and the other with Meta in February this year, each for up to 160 million shares with an exercise price of 1 cent. Together, these total 320 million shares, roughly one-fifth of AMD's current 1.66 billion shares. Vesting depends on how many AMD GPUs the counterparties purchase, plus stock price targets. The 10-Q at the end of June states that not a single share has vested yet, so there is no impact on the financial statements; future accounting will first classify this as a liability. This information is in the 10-Q, not in the press release. Last quarter's 10-Q was released about an hour and a half later than the press release; this time it was around 6:40 AM Beijing time on the 4th. According to accounting standards, equity given to customers generally offsets revenue, and it does not necessarily wait for actual vesting. Once the company judges that vesting is likely and the corresponding GPU revenue is confirmed, it may start offsetting. The 10-Q does not specify which line this is recorded under, nor does it say whether it will be added back in non-GAAP. The first batch is linked to the first 1GW deployment; Lisa Su described the Helios full-rack ramp-up pace in August as follows: The Helios ramp is just starting at the end of Q3, and it'll be much more substantial in Q4. Before the quarter ends on September 26, this batch probably won't be counted yet. But once it starts, the extra shares alone could affect earnings by a few cents, so the revenue offset needs to be watched closely #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 留#BTC continues to face pressure, with divergence between capital and market trends $BTC $ETH BTC continues to face pressure, with divergence between capital and market trends — the price is moving sideways around $77,000, but ETF funds, US buying, and miner data are pulling in different directions. 【Price: Down for a month, but no crash】 BTC has dropped about 7.3% cumulatively in October, recently fluctuating between $77,000 and $80,000. At the time of writing, OKX spot BTC is about $77,640, with a 24-hour range of $76,386 to $77,885, showing significantly narrowed volatility. The Fear and Greed Index is 26, in the “Fear” zone. 【Capital: Institutions are withdrawing】 The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million on October 30, the largest single-day outflow since June; on November 2, there was another net outflow of $399 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone withdrawing $405 million. The total outflow over these two trading days exceeded $1 billion, more than the net inflow of about $440 million over the previous four trading days. 【US buying: Weak but recovering】 The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for several consecutive days, once dropping to the lowest level since November 2022, indicating that US investors are buying less than overseas investors. However, the negative value has narrowed in recent days: recovering from -0.27% on October 29 to about -0.14% on November 2. 【Miners: New high in revenue, unit earnings decline】 Miner revenue reached $1.215 billion in OctoberPalantir's revenue surged but the stock price fell, indicating that the good news has already been priced in. KORU also needs to guard against "good news being fully priced in." I judge that it is currently in the pullback confirmation phase within an uptrend, so I am not chasing highs.
After a 2.4% drop in 24 hours, the price is oscillating around 11.2. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are still upward, with 18.84% room to the 4-hour high. The trading volume is 9.299 million, the top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 1.07, slightly favoring buyers; the funding rate is 0.0183%, leaning bullish, with open interest at 1.038 million, and sentiment is not overheated.
Strategically, lightly test long positions near 10.84 on the pullback, stop loss at 10.52, target 11.63; if volume breaks below 10.52, exit and wait. Keep position size within 20%, do not heavily invest just because the trend is upward.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KORU#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
$KORU There is an interesting historical pattern between US midterm elections and Bitcoin's major market bottoms. Looking back at the previous three cycles: 📍 2014: BTC bottomed around 71 days after the election at approximately $170. 📍 2018: BTC bottomed around 39 days later near $3,200. 📍 2022: BTC bottomed around 13 days later near $15,500. The following bull-market peaks delivered impressive returns: 🚀 $170 → $20,000: 100x+ 🚀 $3,200 → $64,000: 20x 🚀 $15,500 → $126,000: 8x+ One detail stands 76.2K Defense Battle: Final Shakeout Before the Election, or Prelude to a Breakdown?
Market Confirmation: BTC perpetual at 76960, 24h volume 4.789 billion. 1-hour chart shows continuous bearish pressure from 81944, approaching previous low at 76260, current price support at 76950, resistance above at 79520.
Indicators Oversold but No Bottom Yet: MACD -263.4 with bearish divergence below zero line, bears dominate; KDJ K19.2, J11.7 extremely oversold, technical rebound possible; MFI 18.7 shows weak capital flow, volume shrinking with a slow decline, active buying not returned. MA5/10/20 overhead resistance, 1-hour descending channel intact.
Three Signals for Stabilization: Price: hourly chart holds 76260, if broken look to 75900 (STH cost) → 73300 (200-day MA); Rebound: only effective if volume recovers 78200-78500 (MA20 + resistance); Macro: no second dip after 11.3 midterm election vote count, indicating a local bottom.
Trading Tone: Currently, oversold combined with election uncertainty causes panic bottoming, not suitable to chase shorts or bottom-fish. Only very light probing below 76200, break means waiting for 75K panic pit; above 78.5K then consider reversal towards 80K. Control positions before election, wait for the starting gun.
(Not investment advice · for reference only) #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Have the US and Iran made concessions on the nuclear issue and frozen assets? Beware of a possible reversal.
The core disagreement between the two sides is Iran's enriched uranium.
Trump would never allow Iran to dilute this enriched uranium domestically.
On the surface, Trump wants a better deal than Obama’s original one, where Iran handed over the enriched uranium to a third party, namely Russia. If Iran is allowed to dilute it domestically, where would Trump save face? Even if it is handed over to a third country again, Trump would still lose face.
In essence, Iran has relatively advanced centrifuges; if it dilutes the enriched uranium domestically, it can re-enrich it anytime using the centrifuges. In this case, Iran does not have nuclear weapons but effectively has quasi-nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Trump will not concede on this issue. And Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, would not be willing to hand over the enriched uranium. Remember, Iran did not control the strait in 2005.
On the other hand, in 2005 Iran handed over enriched uranium, and Russia, in exchange, gave Iran a large amount of uranium powder. Now with Iran’s advanced centrifuges, giving uranium powder to Iran may no longer be appropriate.
It might be related to the midterm elections; both sides are creating a peaceful atmosphere, but beware of a reversal.Circle conducted a token presale in Q2. 807.5 million ARC tokens at $0.30 each, totaling $242 million. Most of the money was received in the same quarter, but none of it was recognized as revenue; it was all recorded as deferred revenue under liabilities. CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen said in the August earnings call that this revenue will only be recognized once product milestones are met, with about 75% expected to be achieved this year and $180 million included in the full-year guidance. He also mentioned that once recognized, it will "flow directly to the bottom line" with no associated costs. The tokens themselves are not yet available. CEO Jeremy Allaire said on September 16 that ARC tokens have not been released yet and are planned to be released when Arc transitions to proof-of-stake in 2027. The presale contract includes a refund clause: if the tokens are not delivered and the transition has not occurred by May 8, 2028, buyers can request a refund. The money has already been received, the tokens are planned to be released in 2027, and three-quarters of the revenue is to be recognized this year. This is the company's largest accounting item this quarter. Wall Street consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37 to $0.38, but Q2 was only $0.18; doubling that relies on this presale. The target is $0.37, aiming to print $0.38. Excluding the presale, Q3 EPS is roughly $0.15. To reach $0.38, about $66 million of the presale revenue needs to be recognized, which is more than one-third of the full-year $180 million. Every additional $10 million recognized adds about 3.5 cents per share. The key point is On November 2, on-chain trackers identified 15 wallets reportedly linked to Paradigm that unstaked approximately 2.55 million HYPE tokens over the past two days. That's around $224 million, representing roughly 17.85% of their remaining staked holdings. The amount is significant, but there's one important distinction: unstaking doesn't automatically mean selling. A few weeks ago, Paradigm-related wallets made a similar move, only to consolidate and stake their tokens again. Whether the same patt#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $BTC current price 80600, is it a buy? CRCL pre-market dropped to around 76 dollars.
Two consecutive days of US inflation data have clearly been unfavorable for risk assets.
CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, PPI month-on-month even reached 1.3%.
But now I am starting to consider looking for entry opportunities.
If BTC can firmly stand above 81800 again, it can simulate a rise to 83200; if it falls below 80900, this judgment is canceled.
If $ETH ETH recovers 2420, then watch 2490–2550; if it falls below 2350, reassess.
I don't think all risks have disappeared; the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month may still bring volatility.
But investing is essentially a study of expectations and odds.
What really deserves thought is: how much of the decline has the market already paid for these bad news? 🔥 The BTC midterm election curse draws attention again! After three rounds of elections, all saw declines. Will the fourth round repeat this?
🔵 Historical data: After the past three U.S. midterm elections, BTC further dipped before forming a temporary bottom.
📉 2014: Bottomed 71 days later, with a drop of about 46% from the election day close to the low.
📉 2018: Bottomed 39 days later, with a drop of about 50%.
📉 2022: Bottomed 13 days later, with a drop of about 15%.
The bottoming intervals shortened from 71 to 39 to 13 days, but with only three samples, this does not prove a definite pattern.
🟡 This year's election: Before voting, prediction markets gave the Democrats about a 95% chance to win the House and about a 76% chance to win the Senate. This is market expectation, not the final election result, nor does it mean the result is certain.
🔴 My judgment: What truly deserves caution is not the election itself, but whether after the election results are finalized, the market experiences capital outflows, leverage liquidations, and key support breaks. The 2022 decline was also impacted by the FTX incident and cannot be simply attributed to the election.
⚠️ In the coming weeks, focus on BTC capital flows, trading volume, and low point structures. History can be referenced, but do not treat 71, 39, and 13 days as a countdown. Control leverage and wait for market confirmation of direction.
Do you think this time will continue the historical rhythm or break the midterm election decline pattern?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC 1. Current status: Pushed to 2300 then smashed down, short-term overbought is correcting, which is a normal shakeout, big funds (OI) haven't exited yet.
2. Bull scenario (going long): As long as it holds around 2288 - 2290 (closing with a lower shadow or placing buy orders), it's a chance to get in, waiting for a second push to 2300.
3. Bear scenario (going short/exiting): If a large bearish candle breaks through 2280 directly, it indicates the previous move was a fake breakout to lure longs, so long positions should exit quickly, and you can follow the trend to short.#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Data center revenue is very likely to continue high growth, but the Q3 increment is mainly driven by server CPUs, with Helios contributing limited direct revenue for the quarter.
Consensus expects data center revenue of $8.19 billion, up 88% year-over-year, a slowdown from Q2's 107% but still at a high level. Wedbush clearly points out that compute demand related to proxy AI continues to exceed supply, and server CPUs are the most likely source to exceed expectations and drive gross margin improvement. The outlook for the server business in the second half of the year has been raised to over 80% year-over-year growth.
Helios's schedule is initial shipments at the end of Q3, with large-scale volume ramp-up in Q4. Management confirms that customer pull-in progress is "ahead of initial forecasts," with anchor customers including OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft Azure, and Anthropic's 2GW MI450 deployment, whose first 1GW will not start until the first half of 2027. Cloud providers' commitments are real, but the timing of conversion into AMD revenue is in Q4 and beyond, not this quarter.
The real risk is not in data centers but in PCs and gaming. Intel has already issued a weak guidance due to declining PC demand, AMD's client business is expected to be flat quarter-over-quarter, and gaming revenue may decline 49% year-over-year, enough to partially offset the strength in data centers.
Q3 numbers exceeding expectations is the baseline scenario, but whether the 2027 data center guidance can be further raised is the core of post-earnings pricing.History Will Not Simply Repeat: BTC's Midterm Election Narrative Anchored on Liquidity, Not Votes
BTC is currently trading around $76,700, about $3,300 short of the $80,000 mark; just a few trading days ago, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the largest since late June. The convergence of election day and institutional capital "bleeding" in the same window forms the core tension in current pricing.
BTC bottoms after the last three midterm elections indeed occurred between two to two and a half years after halving, highly overlapping with bear market cycles. This means the so-called "election effect" itself cannot be causally inferred from these three samples. Bitwise's research director bluntly stated: so far, no statistically significant impact of midterm election probabilities on mainstream crypto asset performance has been found; by contrast, tightening financial conditions, inflation, and AI trading risks are more important variables.
The real transmission chain is not about who wins, but "Congress control → fiscal deficit path → interest rate expectations → US dollar." Glassnode data shows BTC's inverse correlation with the dollar is at its most negative level on record, and the dollar's strength is historically suppressing BTC. Bloomberg surveys confirm this: even under the "most crypto-friendly regulatory" blue wave scenario, most respondents do not believe BTC can break $100,000; and in the scenario of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, the year-end price median forecast is only $76,450. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ USDC确实在长大，但长大的果实不全归Circle
As of Q2 2026, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year. The numbers look impressive. But total revenue and reserve income in Q2 were only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year.
Transaction volume rose 151%, but revenue only increased by 7%. The issue lies in the revenue structure: about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while transfer fees in Q2 were only $5.3 million — $14.8 trillion in transaction volume generated just $5.3 million in revenue. USDC has grown, but Circle still earns money from "U.S. Treasury bond coupons," not from the "stablecoin network effect."
The real profit bottleneck: distribution costs consume nearly 60% of revenue
In the first half of 2026, Circle generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which $819 million (nearly 59%) was directly paid to distribution partners and transaction costs. This means that for every $1 of revenue, only about 7 cents remain as net profit.$ETH in this market, just when I thought I could catch a breather, it immediately tests my mindset again.
I entered a long position nearby. Honestly, it's not that I think this is definitely the bottom, but since it rebounded from 2273.72, I was wondering if it could move further after a pullback. But looking at the market, ETH has returned to around 3.008, and this trade hasn't yet produced the rebound I wanted.
The 4-hour chart is more intuitive: it dropped from 2280 all the way down to 2245, rebounded to 2245 but was pushed down again. Now the price is around 3000, the Bollinger middle band is about 2260, and the lower band is about 30%. The price is still below the middle band, indicating that the short-term trend hasn't truly strengthened. First, let's see if it can hold around 2120; 3300 is the previous low. To recover, it needs to at least retake around 2245.
The news hasn't completely settled either. After the Binance security incident, although withdrawals have gradually resumed and the platform claims to have replenished most of the affected assets, issues with capital outflow and market confidence remain. Upcoming US employment data, political situations, and tech stock performance may also cause volatility. What I fear most now isn't a drop, but sudden spikes up and down triggered by news, shaking out both sides.
I don't want to stubbornly hold this position just by willpower. 2273 is my entry price, but that doesn't mean the market must rebound here. Whether it can retake 2245 and whether the rebound is sustainable are far more important than a few points of unrealized profit or loss. If the previous low breaks again, I definitely need to reassess and can't keep adding just because I'm unwilling to accept it.Conclusion first: $MVLL dropped 34.5% in 27 hours (19.89→13.03). The pitfall is not the drop itself, but in three numbers.
It is the GraniteShares 2x daily reset Marvell ETF perpetual. The underlying stock MRVL closed at 171.41 on 11-02 (-12.72%), and the ETF dropped 22.0% that day.
① Before the US stock market opened, the perpetual surged to 19.89, 10% higher than the ETF’s previous close of 18.05, with a volume of 2.32 million contracts worth about 41 million USD; one hour later, the ETF opened at 17.29 and closed at 13.49. When the underlying stock market is closed, the perpetual prices itself.
② During the crash, the funding fee still collected money from the longs: on 11-03, three periods were +0.019%, +0.024%, +0.036% (8 hours per period).
③ Position size increased against the trend: from 743,000 USD at 20:00 on 11-02 to 1,264,000 USD at 10:00 on 11-03 (+70%). Even after a 20% drop, new longs are entering.
2x daily reset × 10x leverage contracts, intraday volatility about 20 times the underlying stock; 480,000 contracts traded in 24 hours worth about 6.5 million USD, with only 37 contracts at the best bid of 13.45.
Despite such a drop, people still pay a 0.036% funding fee to chase longs. What exactly are you aiming for?#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ $CRCL Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and this time I chose NO, meaning I am betting the earnings will not meet market expectations.
My core judgment is: revenue may not be bad, but there could be pressure on the profit side. $SOL Everyone is hyping $PLTR's revenue surge of 96%, but who noticed that new signed contracts (TCV) only increased by 6%?📉
To put it bluntly, is this really a high-margin AI giant, or just a "customized consulting company" disguised as software? Even big short-seller Burry believes that after stripping out the cost of on-site engineers, it simply can't justify a 155x PE.
Don't be fooled by the surface-level high growth. Looking at the technicals: the daily chart has already broken below the moving averages, 180-182 is the ceiling for any rebound, support below is at 165-169, and breaking 160 will lead straight down to 100.
The earnings beat expectations is just a "graceful retreat" for the bulls. Jumping in now is likely to catch a falling knife.🔪
Bulls see this as the "sovereign AI revolution," bears see it as "swimming naked when the tide goes out." What’s your take?👇
$PLTR #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Just canceled the limit order at 77,200 placed last night: BTC is now at 77,626, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, while on-chain active addresses and spot trading volume are both shrinking. This kind of "price unchanged, volume moves first" pattern, I've seen three times recently in this position algorithm—twice were tightening before false breakouts, once was sideways before a real drop. So today I proactively reduced my BTC position from 40% to 20%, and moved the stop loss from 75,800 up to 76,400—not bearish, just don't want to catch chips for others at this level.
ETH is relatively more worth watching: 2,298, up 1.0% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC by nearly one point. Among altcoins, BMT is +21.2% in a single day; I basically don't chase these pulses, my own record is 3 wins and 7 losses when chasing, no need. If I really want to participate, I'd rather see if ETH can hold above 2,340 before deciding to add.
The key divergence here isn't price direction, but "whether to reduce position during volume contraction." My answer is to reduce, because the algorithm only recognizes volatility, not stories. The review at 06:00 this morning showed a 1.8% account drawdown, and I'm writing honestly.
At this level, are you reducing positions waiting for a pullback, or adding to bet on a breakout?
Follow me for daily public real-position and stop loss logic, losses included, all honestly shared.
#OKXProphet #BTCSpotETFOutflows
High probability of $BTC rising by November 8.
Despite this, we have 2 camps: those who support the concept and those who are for price dumping.
So far, the gap is not large. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% Behind the 6.3 billion turmoil, still holding chips worth one billion 😂
On one side, news of a 6.3 billion loss spreads; on the other, holding shares originally bought for 500 million, now worth 1 billion, with no plans to sell.
The price surged to 142.22 but couldn't hold, falling back to hover repeatedly around 137.
The root cause of this round of adjustment is not petty disputes but the collective weakness of US tech stocks.
It's hard to decide at this position now; need to wait for tonight's US stock market direction.
Open the position list, check the distance from the pending order to the 137.57 level.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Why keep government bonds just sitting in the account when you can move them onto the blockchain?
Société Générale in France gave a straightforward answer: $10 million in U.S. government bonds were transferred to the counterparty as collateral through DTCC's tokenization service. The business lead said it plainly, just one sentence: "It demonstrated that tokenized collateral can be transferred among market participants."
It sounds like nonsense, but it's actually the key point. The hardest part about collateral isn't having it, but that it can't be moved. Locked in a custodian bank, if you want to use it for another transaction, you have to go through a whole process; after tokenization, it becomes a certificate that can be directly transferred.
On the other hand, native assets like $BTC are simple—they are inherently transferable. The real hassle is always with the old money assets dressed in suits.