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#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
Moderna's earnings report is coming out tomorrow before the market opens, and I'm directly betting on an upside surprise—not because it's that great, but because market expectations are too low.
Think about it, this time last year Moderna was a stock with hundreds of billions in revenue, but now Q3 revenue is expected to be just over 800 million, down nearly 90%. With expectations crushed this low, even a slight improvement would be an upside surprise. Plus, Q3 is naturally the peak season for vaccine sales, with flu and COVID vaccination seasons—shouldn't sales be higher than Q2?
In Q2, Moderna's revenue was 145 million, which actually exceeded the guidance ceiling, indicating the company isn't that bad. Now Q3 is expected at 860 million, as long as there's no disaster, it will most likely beat expectations.
82% of the community is betting on an upside surprise, showing consensus. Although consensus can sometimes be a contrarian indicator, how bad can Moderna really get? Those who needed to cut losses have already done so, and expectations are already at rock bottom.
Personally, I'm lightly betting on it. If I'm right, I get a bite; if I'm wrong, it won't fall much further. The real concern is the guidance after the earnings report—if next quarter's guidance is still bad, any rise will likely come back down.
What about you? For Moderna's earnings this time, are you betting on an upside surprise or a miss? 10x leverage is the parameter that makes me want to stop and do a code review the most when I look at this monitoring 💻. The input is very clear: Core Trader 01 opens a new long position or adds to a long position on $MU, quantity 500 units, nominal value about $389,900, reference price $779.7918. But the monitoring only provides the execution result, not the exit logic for this trade.
My judgment is: whether this order can stand depends not only on the bullish reasons but also on whether there are conditions to interrupt early if the judgment is wrong. Roughly calculating by dividing the nominal value by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $39,000; if the price moves 1% against the position, the position loss is about $3,900, which is about 10% of this estimated margin, not including fees yet.
The potential bug is treating "still able to hold" as the exit rule. Directional judgment may take time to realize, but leverage compresses the waiting space. However, I cannot calculate the exact liquidation price based on this; the margin mode, additional collateral, and maintenance margin requirements are all unknown. Simply writing "only dangerous if it drops 10%" is missing boundary checks.
If I were reviewing this logic, I would first require clearly stating the conditions under which the judgment fails, then verify whether the corresponding loss is bearable, rather than adding rules temporarily after going live. What I want to observe next is how it handles reverse fluctuations; opening a long is just the function entry point, risk control determines how long the program can run.#US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress 🔵 Blue Wave Lands: Not the End of Crypto, but the Start of "Regulatory Certainty"
On 11.3, the midterm election results came in, with Democrats sweeping both the Senate and the House, breaking the Republican full control pattern. The market's first reaction was "strict regulation is coming," but on closer analysis, this actually means the "hanging sword" has been put down.
Triple Pricing Logic
The "Clear Act" revisited: the originally proposed authority for the CFTC is voided, with the Democrats' revised draft direction = expanded SEC regulation plus "government officials' crypto conflict of interest restrictions." Short-term legislative deadlock, long-term compliance costs rise—but "clear rules" are better than "random licensing."
Good news discounted, bad news fully priced: pre-election "pro-crypto benefits" expectations were dashed, but a divided government = unlikely extreme bans. Institutions are instead willing to build positions under new rules rather than gamble on policy.
Macro alignment: oil prices fall, US Treasury yields drop, dollar weakens, liquidity marginally eases, risk assets overall recover, crypto benefits from beta.
Impact on Market Structure
MEME and platform tokens, which soared on "policy imagination," face pressure; assets with real cash flow/institutional backing (BTC/ETH) are relatively resilient.
Rising compliance costs accelerate the clearing out of small exchanges/anonymous projects, while leading exchanges and compliant stablecoins gain market share.
Crypto PAC's $233 million political donations go down the drain, but the "industry politicization" trend is irreversible—the next round of legislative battles starts early $BTC Bitcoin rebounded in sync with risk assets, breaking through 81000💲. Ethereum saw even greater gains, with the overall crypto market recovering. Tokens related to Trump (such as TRUMP, WLFI) sharply declined, showing a clear divergence from mainstream coins.
The election results eliminated political uncertainty, and the plunge in oil prices further reduced inflation and geopolitical risk premiums, boosting risk appetite. Crypto, as a high-beta risk asset, directly benefits. This is a short-term positive for liquidity and sentiment recovery. However, in the medium to long term, caution is needed: Democratic control of Congress may slow down crypto-friendly legislation and tighten regulation, casting doubt on the effectiveness of the industry's previous lobbying efforts.
The market has already priced "political tokens" separately from "mainstream assets," which is a sign of maturity, but it also means policy risks will not completely disappear $BTC #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ Under the pull of AI computing power demand, AAOI's 800G optical modules have entered a period of concentrated volume release. The company guides that Q3 800G revenue is expected to grow nearly fivefold quarter-on-quarter, while the 1.6T product has started small-batch shipments, with ample orders on hand and strong demand heat. However, the short-term constraint is not demand but the supply of upstream optical chips and the speed of capacity ramp-up, which is key to whether the guidance upper limit can be exceeded.
The market's core observations focus on two points: first, the fulfillment of 800G shipments and the progress of 1.6T customer certification; second, the gross margin. AAOI purchases laser chips externally, facing higher cost pressure than integrated manufacturers. Management gives a Q3 non-GAAP gross margin range of 29%-30.5%. If yield improves and the proportion of high-end products increases, a rising gross margin will be a signal of exceeding expectations.
Risks are also prominent, with fierce competition from overseas peers, uncertainty in major customer order allocation, and additional expenses from capacity expansion that will suppress profits. Overall judgment is that revenue falling within the guidance range is the baseline scenario; slight outperformance is possible, but a large surge in orders is difficult.
From the capital perspective, more attention is paid to the landing pace of 1.6T, which determines growth elasticity next year. If the financial report discloses smooth 1.6T certification and new orders from leading cloud vendors, even if revenue only meets the target, market sentiment will be relatively positive; conversely, if chip shortages drag shipments and gross margin falls below the lower limit, it is likely to trigger a valuation correction.After reading, I noted three things. As someone who keeps lists, I almost copied the trending search list into my watchlist, but then I thought: being watched and having research value are really not the same checkbox.
1. In CoinGecko's crypto trending search list, Pudgy Penguins ($PENGU) ranks first, with a market cap ranking of 112, up 5.5% in 24 hours; BTC rose 5.1%, TRUMP fell 17.1%, and both are also near the top of the trending list. My judgment is that this list is suitable for finding discussion clues, but not for directly labeling market sentiment as "bullish," because both rises and falls can drive searches.
2. I separate the trending rank and market cap rank in my notes; a high attention rank does not equal a high market cap. Putting PENGU’s two rankings side by side makes this very clear. If you allocate research time only based on search order, I think it’s easy to mistake temporary discussion volume for a project’s importance.
3. I also leave a blank for "why it’s being searched." This material doesn’t provide specific catalysts for each coin, so I can’t fill in the story for it. If there are clear events later, then cross-checking events and price changes gives a chance to distinguish whether people are looking for opportunities or checking risks. This is my own observation approach.
I first treat the trending list as a question list, not an answer; what would you add as a fourth point to judge whether PENGU’s current top trending spot has lasting tracking value?Yesterday I said, let's see if the US stock market shows some respect tonight.
It did, and quite generously.
BTC is now at 80,635, ETH at 2,428. In two days, BTC rose 5% from 76,664, and ETH rose 7.6%.
The Dow Jones rose 3% last night, the largest single-day gain in 18 months.
But there's a detail to mention: the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 3.11% yesterday, hitting a six-month low. Money didn't flow into AI infrastructure; it all went to Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and consumer stocks.
So this wave is not "optimistic about the future," but rather "repositioning after uncertainty is cleared."
The 80,000 level was tested for a whole week, and yesterday it was reclaimed in one day. Such a quick recovery indicates many were previously out of the market.
For those thinking of acting today, I've set three conditions for myself; if one is missing, I won't move:
1. Don't chase. After a 5% rise in one day, entering now means your stop loss is right under others' profit-taking levels.
2. Tomorrow is Nonfarm Payrolls. Before the data comes out, keep your position no more than 30% of usual.
3. Has the ETF money returned? If not, this wave is just emotional repair.
Check for yourself, how many of these can you meet?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？
Oklo focuses on small advanced fast reactors and has attracted significant capital attention due to its advantages in adapting to AI data centers and providing low-carbon, stable power. Currently, its commercialization is still at the demonstration pilot stage, with clear phased gaps before large-scale deployment.
The project is progressing smoothly. The first Aurora fast reactor is being constructed under a streamlined approval process by the U.S. Department of Energy, with initial grid connection and power delivery expected between 2027 and 2028. This marks the first critical milestone for the company's commercialization. Meanwhile, its test reactor has achieved critical operation, the fuel supply chain has been initially established, and it has secured a letter of intent from Meta's data center, clearly defining the application scenarios. Both technical feasibility and market demand have been preliminarily validated.
However, multiple obstacles remain for scaled commercialization. First, the current pilot uses special approval policies, while the subsequent nationwide NRC commercial license approval process is lengthy and uncertain; second, there is insufficient engineering experience with small sodium-cooled fast reactors, and long-term operational stability and maintenance costs have yet to be verified; third, nuclear power projects require high investment and long cycles, and sustained financing capability will directly impact deployment progress.
Overall, only a single unit demonstration commercialization can be achieved by 2027-2028, completing technology and scenario validation. True large-scale commercial use and batch deployment of power supply projects are expected after 2030. In the short term, grid connection progress and approval developments can be tracked. In the medium to long term, license acquisition, cost control, and supply chain maturity are the core factors determining Oklo's commercialization success. •$BTC Bullish Viewpoint
- BTC continued to rally to $80,031 after breaking through $79,000, with the technical breakout of a key resistance level releasing rebound momentum.
- Whales and institutions like Block have been steadily accumulating at low levels, showing long-term optimism; spot market buying has shifted from net selling to net buying, with buying power recovering.
- After the political downside from the US midterm elections settled, market sentiment quickly recovered, global capital markets broadly rebounded, and financial conditions shifted to support risk assets.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
Q3 is the peak season for autumn and winter respiratory vaccine vaccinations. This financial report is a key window to observe Moderna's commercialization transformation. The COVID-19 vaccine remains the foundation, with mNEXSPIKE as the next-generation updated vaccine, focusing on vaccination penetration and retail share among high-risk elderly populations in the U.S. The market expects COVID-19 vaccine revenue to continue declining year-on-year. COVID-19 has shifted from a pandemic essential to a seasonal optional vaccine, with public willingness to vaccinate steadily weakening. Demand is mainly supported by the elderly and people with underlying conditions, which is the biggest short-term pressure.
The RSV vaccine mRESVIA is a highlight, but the competitive landscape is weak, with GSK and Pfizer having clear first-mover advantages. Previous quarterly sales fell short of expectations, and it is difficult for this quarter to contribute significant incremental revenue. Order and channel stocking data need to be tracked. The flu + COVID-19 bivalent vaccine mCOMBRIAX, approved in Europe, is still in the early volume expansion stage, with limited short-term revenue contribution. More attention is on market acceptance, which will determine the growth potential of subsequent combination vaccines.
Cost control is another core focus. Overall, it is predicted that Q3 revenue will likely remain low, making high growth difficult. The core focus is not short-term revenue spikes but stabilization of COVID-19 vaccine market share, signals of RSV volume growth, and commercialization progress of the bivalent vaccine. If vaccination data exceeds expectations, it will restore market confidence in the mRNA commercialization platform; otherwise, the market will continue to worry about its revenue ceiling, and funds will increasingly bet on the long-term prospects of the oncology pipeline.Looking at these high win-rate addresses, first check the odds: winning frequently does not mean the risk is low. According to Odaily monitoring, a certain address completed 42 rounds of BTC trades from September 18 to October 30, with a win rate of about 98%; after a net reduction of about $6.7 million in long positions, it still holds about $18.1 million in $BTC longs.
I tend to see this as risk reduction rather than a clear bearish stance. The position is still there, and reducing holdings does not equal a reversal in direction; 42 rounds of short-term records cannot represent the win rate of the next trade. Without information on single trade profit/loss and leverage, the expected value cannot be calculated based on 98% alone.
If you use this to remind yourself to check exposure, I think it's worthwhile; if you bet on a decline just because a "pro" reduced holdings, the information is insufficient and the odds may not be favorable. When evaluating signals from addresses that still hold longs after reducing positions, do you value historical win rates more or current odds?Yesterday morning, BTC plunged to 75736, then surged directly to 81196 in the evening. Within one day, first it forced you to cut losses, then pressured you to chase the highs—this is not a market trend, it's the main force clearing out positions.
That downward spike wasn't a real dump. Stop-loss orders had been piling up below 76300 for half a month; if they weren't fully cleared, the price couldn't rally. The evidence is in the volume: the morning drop had low volume, while the evening surge's volume nearly quadrupled. A drop without volume is a fake fall, a rise with volume is the real deal.
So, although it appeared to rise 7% yesterday, in reality, all the positions that needed to be cut were cleared.
But after this kind of move, it won't surge straight up. After one shakeout, the second retracement is often deeper—will you still dare to hold after another test?
My previous prediction was proven wrong yesterday; I admit that, no pretense. Today, I just say: I won't chase at this level. It's not bearish, but until the weekly moving averages hold, the odds of chasing highs aren't worth it. I'll wait for it to pull back below 80000 before considering again. BTC is up 4.9% while ETH leads major assets at 7.4% and SOL adds 4.57%. That points to participation extending beyond BTC, a healthier backdrop than a single-asset move. It remains uncertain whether this breadth can hold as US jobs data and oil-risk repricing shape macro expectations.
Not financial advice.$BTC Bitcoin current price is around 80,700, a short-term recovery after a sharp drop, not yet forming a new trend.
Technically, on the 15-minute chart, after pulling back from 75,700 to 81,200, the upward momentum has slowed; the short moving average is still below the price, but the daily high is pressing overhead. The 4-hour rebound is after a drop from 84,900, with resistance at 81,200; only a firm break above this level would indicate a renewed strength. About 75% of liquidation liquidity is below the current price, with the nearest cluster at 79,600, so there is no thick short squeeze cushion above; further gains depend on new buying.
Yesterday's drop to 75,700 corresponded to uncertainty over the midterm elections, the Hormuz tanker incident, and the Fed's December rate hike probability still above 80%. Subsequently, the Democrats took Congress, the dollar and US bond yields fell, oil prices plummeted, trade war tensions eased, and fiscal issues stalled, restoring risk appetite, which pulled Bitcoin back above 80,000.
Looking ahead at three things: whether the Bank of England raises rates tonight, the strength of Friday's nonfarm payrolls, and any substantive progress in US-Iran talks. A volume-backed break above 81,200 would allow the rebound to continue; failure to hold this level may lead to a retest of 79,600. If 79,600 breaks, the recovery turns into a decline. This level is better for waiting rather than chasing. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC price has risen above 80,600, seemingly heading to test 82,000, but honestly, this surge makes me quite uncomfortable.
It climbed all the way from 75,700, looking strong, but it's actually bloated. Anyone watching the market can feel it—there's hardly any decent spot buying underneath; it's all space created by shorts being forcefully liquidated. Open interest isn't increasing but decreasing, which means what? It means this is a short squeeze pulse from shorts covering, not real big money accumulating positions.
What's strange is that on the ETF side, billions have flowed out consecutively, showing institutions are clearly retreating to hedge, yet the futures market is getting excited first. Plus, the Nasdaq is hovering at a high level, and although US Treasury yields have taken a breather, the macro environment doesn't provide much confidence.
The orange box between 81,900 and 82,000 is all previous trapped positions; if it really breaks through, the selling pressure will be very direct. Chasing longs at this level is basically using your principal as a stepping stone for others to get out of their positions.
I'm not in a hurry now; I'd rather wait for a pullback near 80,000 to see if it can stabilize on lower volume than gamble on a breakout at this indecisive level. This kind of short squeeze rally comes fast and goes fast—don't mistake the pulse for a trend. If it crashes down, catching the falling knife will be deadly.
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceBTC touched 80,000, but this upward momentum is driven more by short covering than by spot buying. In the past 24 hours, about $577 million in short positions across the network were adjusted, with longs around $415 million; BTC shorts about $310 million, longs only 87.49 million. The price was pushed up by liquidations.
$BTC: around 80,000. ETF net outflows continued for three days, with 115.6 million on November 3, IBIT accounting for 94.98 million, but the outflow pace slowed compared to nearly 400 million on Monday. Money is withdrawing, but slow withdrawal does not mean a return.
$ETH: around 2,430, up 6.7% in 24 hours, the strongest among the three coins. ETF net outflows continued for the seventh day at 85.34 million, ETHA accounting for 74.43 million; however, exchange ETH reserves dropped to about 14.5 million tokens, the lowest since 2016. Products are withdrawing, but on-chain is locking.
$SOL: around 93. SOL ETF net outflows continued for four days, but on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, with 1.7 million new wallets daily. Users are increasing, but invested money is decreasing.
Friday's employment data is expected to add 65,000 jobs, with about a 74% chance of a December policy. All three coins are waiting for the same thing: after short covering ends, whether spot buyers are willing to take over.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Both chambers flipped blue, BTC stands back at 80,000: Why the CLARITY Act is actually further away!
The Associated Press announced both chambers last night at once: Democrats swept the House and Senate, locking in 218 seats in the House with a final estimate of over 230 seats, flipping seven states including Texas and Ohio in the Senate, with Jeffries expected to become Speaker.
BTC first dropped to $75,633, but was immediately bought back after the sweep landed, now about $80,800 this morning, up about 5% in 24 hours—the market is buying the resolution of uncertainty, not a particular party.
But the crypto community’s biggest concern, the CLARITY Act, is actually further away. This market structure bill passed the House in July 2025 by 294 to 134 votes, and faced a Senate hurdle on September 15 this year: 49 to 50, 11 votes short of the 60-vote procedural threshold, with all 49 yes votes from Republicans and all Democrats opposed. The sticking point was the ethics clause regarding the president’s family crypto business. Now that both chambers have changed hands, the Banking Committee and Financial Services Committee will be chaired by Warren and Waters—the two toughest crypto opponents. The 119th Congress ends in January 2027, so the bill will most likely have to be reintroduced from scratch in the new Congress. TD Cowen’s judgment is: don’t expect it to pass in the next two years.
The election outcome is written, but the bill’s story is just beginning.
$BTC20x Long on SUI: 6% Rebound vs 23% Monthly Drop, Can You Hold It?
20x long on SUIUSDT, current price around 0.93, up over 6% in 24 hours but still down 23% in 30 days.
A short-term rebound is underway, bouncing up from around 0.86, with some bullish signs on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, majority of positions are long, and funding rates remain low. However, the daily MACD is still bearish, price stuck below 0.94-0.95 (near the 20-day moving average), and volume isn’t particularly strong. Fundamentals have some highlights (Samsung Wallet integrating USDC, Hashi progress, AI agent-related testing), but the mid-term trend hasn’t fully reversed yet.
The only pitfall to watch out for: 20x leverage means a price drop of about 5% could hit the liquidation line. At this level, upside space looks like it can reach 0.95-1.0, with support near 0.90 and 0.86. If the pullback fails, stop-loss room is extremely tight.
Where would you set your stop loss?
$SUI
#SUI #SUIUSDT #cryptocurrency #leverage trading #digital offshore Five banks have joined forces to tokenize assets, but what I care most about are the three words "non-profit": my judgment is that the significance of this news lies in the attempt to unify rules, rather than to fuel any particular coin.
According to reports, HSBC, JPMorgan's Kinexys, and three other banks have established GL1 Org headquartered in Singapore. Based on the Monetary Authority of Singapore's GL1 initiative, they aim to promote common standards for tokenized finance and interoperability across institutions and jurisdictions.
When I see this kind of news, I usually ask first: after assets are put on-chain, can they leave their own backyard? If each bank's ledger and asset rules are incompatible, then putting assets on-chain might just be a repackaging, and circulation would still require repeated interfacing. The common standards aim to solve this invisible friction cost.
But non-profit does not equal inherently neutral, and forming an organization does not mean the standards have been implemented. My guess is that if the rules are adopted by more institutions, regulated tokenized assets will circulate more easily; this cannot be directly inferred to benefit public chains or related tokens. Who the rules ultimately accommodate is more important than the participants' reputations.
So I am willing to pay attention to this matter, but I won't rush to translate it into market trends. Would you rather see GL1 next announce specific interoperability cases, or first clarify which institutions and networks can connect?$DOT
Breaking news says Polkadot's XCM was exploited, with a treasury loss of about $1,381,000. My first reaction was to check the market, and DOT is at 0.9529; it still ended up higher for the day, though about four points lower than the 0.996 touched at 11 PM last night.
What does 1.38 million mean? On OKX, DOT spot trading volume in 24 hours is $2.81 million, roughly half a day's turnover. If this were a real incident scale, there would be no ripple in the order book.
Even more awkward is the perpetual side. Open interest is $7.57 million, with a fee rate of 0.0044%, less than half the 0.01 benchmark. No one is rushing to short, nor is anyone rushing to exit. The money was taken, but holders don't even bother to panic.
The old chain's technical narrative is exhausted; a security incident only causes a two-point pullback, not even producing a decent bearish candle.
$1.38 million, not even a ripple. If this had happened in 2021...
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Regarding the gaming business, PS5 hardware shipments are gradually slowing down, with growth focus shifting to software, PlayStation Plus subscriptions, and third-party content. Profit resilience is the core highlight. With major titles like GTA6 approaching release, software consumption and user activity are expected to increase, but short-term hardware sales face pressure. Coupled with early-stage R&D investments for new consoles, this will suppress revenue growth. The gaming segment's revenue is expected to face slight pressure this quarter, but operating profit is still likely to remain stable. Exchange rates are an important variable; a stronger US dollar would positively impact profits. Risks include major titles underperforming and slower subscription user growth.
The music business is a stable pillar of Sony's cash flow, with streaming copyright revenue continuing steady growth, and offline concerts and artist merchandise also contributing incremental gains. However, last year saw blockbuster hits like "Demon Slayer" and one-time equity revaluation gains, setting a high base. This quarter's revenue is expected to continue moderate growth, but profits may face year-on-year pressure, making it difficult to replicate last year's high growth levels. In the long term, the value of the music copyright library is stable, and streaming subscriptions have weak cyclical characteristics, providing stronger volatility resistance.
Overall, the two major businesses show clear divergence: gaming relies on blockbuster content to drive elasticity, with profit recovery depending on software and subscription conversion; music follows a steady long-term growth path, with growth being relatively stable and unlikely to have an unexpected surge.11-5
Macro: Major geopolitical positive factors (oil price drop) + US stock market volatility + gold rebound
Data: Coinbase premium narrowing + ETF inflows yesterday + stronger on-chain upward demand protection + slight rebound in buying
BTC short-term support: 79400 / 78000; resistance: 81000 / 82100
ETH short-term support: 2400 / 2320; resistance: 2450 / 2510
1. Gold rises because of a decline in AI growth expectations, easing of fiscal deficits and political uncertainties, leading to a drop in real interest rates, reducing gold's opportunity cost, thus driving the increase
2. Currently, the drop in oil prices + political stability bring a broad risk appetite increase, but the sustainability depends on Friday's non-farm payroll data and AI growth expectations afterward
3. This is a rally brought by easing sentiment, not a full bull market start; if rate hike expectations do not decrease and Friday's non-farm payroll data remains strong, it will return to a volatile process I never really understood why the rise and fall of $HYPE depends on the US election votes.
Now I roughly get it. According to Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, the midterm elections make crypto policies like the "Clear Act" unpredictable, and Hyperliquid's legislative prospects and compliance pace all hinge on this.
What's more subtle is that Trump publicly supported Hyperliquid and even had the CFTC study federal compliance pathways. It sounds like a huge positive, but on closer thought—it’s like handing over the progress bar to a group of people who have nothing to do with you to vote on.
After voting, we still have to wait for the bill. Waiting and waiting, who knows how many market cycles will pass.$ZEC
This wave of ZEC money didn't come in through the spot market. At 10:27, a quick update showed a certain address added $5.08 million in long positions, with total profits of $21.35 million. I calculated that $5.08 million at 1320 equals 3,848 coins. OKX perpetual contracts have a total position of only 135,800 ZEC, so this single trade accounts for 2.8%.
Looking at the volume conversely: perpetual contracts have a 24-hour nominal turnover of $2.05 billion, while spot is only $101 million. That's twenty times. The pricing power lies with the perpetual side; the spot market's volume is too small to even be considered a backup.
The added position price hasn't moved. At 11 PM last night, the 1H candle showed 15.63 million contracts; after surging to 1352.13, it hasn't touched that level again. Now it's at 1319, oscillating between 1272 and 1352 for twelve hours. Subsequent volumes per candle are between 2 million and 5 million contracts, at most one-third of that peak.
The fee rate is 0.0083%, still below the 0.01 baseline. Bulls aren't rushing to pay. The whale added aggressively, but the leverage side didn't follow.
I see this as position management, not a market start. To move upward solidly, the spot volume of $100 million needs to expand to $300 million. Floating profits can support sideways movement but not a breakout.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Awesome! Both BTC and ETH have stood up these past couple of days!
$BTC surged from around 75,600 straight up to just over 80,000, now hovering between 80,400-80,600. $ETH is even stronger, jumping directly from above 2,220 to 2,420-2,430, rising even more fiercely than BTC.
Is this a trend reversal? I don't think it's that soon. It feels more like a recovery after a prolonged drop. With the US midterm election results out, uncertainty has been halved; plus, shorts got squeezed, with nearly $1 billion in positions liquidated within 24 hours, mostly shorts, so naturally the market bounced back.
Technically, it's not exaggerated either. RSI is between 40-50, the long-short ratio is lukewarm. Funding rates have turned positive, but only about 0.005% every 8 hours, very mild, still far from a long squeeze.
Resistance is also clear: BTC faces selling pressure between 80,000 and 82,000; ETH needs to break through 2,450-2,500 before it can continue upward.
What I’m watching most is the ETF. These days, spot ETFs for BTC and ETH have seen net outflows; BTC regularly sees over $100 million flowing out daily, and ETH has been outflowing for several days straight. If institutions don’t come back, this rally is likely just a breather on the way down. The last flash of light.
Short-term, you can play along with the longs, but don’t treat this as a bull market return. Going forward, it depends on two things: whether BTC can hold above 80,000 and whether ETH can break through the 2,470 threshold to achieve a true breakout.My first reaction: this is not just changing the deployment environment, but rewriting the product requirements as well.💻
ZetaChain states that if the proposal passes, L1 will be shut down around December 9, and $ZETA will be migrated 1:1 to Solana, with the privacy AI application ZetaLabs launching simultaneously.
I value application demand more than inflation reduction: tightening supply doesn't mean there will be users, which is a flaw in valuation logic. If it were up to me, I'd first clarify the migration path, then look at actual retention, and not rush to give the new narrative a high score.Yesterday's ETH short position made a profit in the morning but didn't set a stop loss for the added position. After the drop and subsequent recovery, once it stepped above the descending curve, it shouldn't have been shorted again; better to wait for another opportunity.
Because recently it’s clear that ETH doesn't want to fall. The previous shorting trend hasn't fully recovered due to the situation with the Binance exchange, and people still think it will crash. Also, the trading volume isn't high enough, and open interest isn't high enough either. High fees don't necessarily mean a big short squeeze. If key support levels hold, a rebound is possible, attracting more long positions. Moreover, there was no major crash news yesterday; on the contrary, the mid-term election results turned out to be a short-term positive. Marking that there’s no news that can impact the short term, so it depends on the market makers' intentions. After the 10 o'clock opening yesterday, it actually held the rising line, which marks a possible continued rise 📈A 5% drop is not a problem with the car, it's a problem with the contract.
$TSLA fell from 409 to 377 in one day.
What is falling is political risk, not sales.
Here's how the number is calculated:
The 450 million donation bought a policy channel, not the stock price.
With the Democrats taking both chambers, the channel has changed locks.
The next step is:
Government contracts need to be reviewed, and the merger plan may be stalled.
Regulations on autonomous driving will only tighten.
Any one of these three things coming to pass is a real cost.
Today, 377 is the day's low; those shorting caught exactly this 5%.
The 390 to 395 range is the second chance given by the rebound.
It's not that the direction has changed; it's that the same issue is not yet resolved.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#$TSLA Today, a warning signal appeared in the A-share technology sector: trading volume began to weaken, and the capital support seems not as strong as yesterday. Yesterday, the A-share technology track collectively surged, with the STAR 50 Index rising nearly 10%, the ChiNext Index up 6.4%, and the total turnover of the two markets reaching ¥2.04 trillion, an increase of ¥334.3 billion compared to the previous trading day. The market briefly rekindled enthusiasm for AI and semiconductor sectors. However, today's early trading session showed a different performance, with a significant shrinkage in market volume; in the first hour, the turnover of the two markets decreased by about ¥67.1 billion year-on-year, some tech stocks surged then fell back, and over 3,000 stocks declined. The question arises: if A-share tech stocks cannot sustain volume growth, can US tech stocks still independently support the global tech sector's upward expectations? Last night, the US stock market actually gave a somewhat contradictory signal. The Nasdaq rose 1.44%, with strong performances from major tech stocks like Microsoft and Amazon, but the semiconductor index fell 3.1%, with chip stocks like Micron and Marvell showing significant declines. This means not all tech sectors in the US stock market are rising; there is a clear capital divergence. This is not a signal that can be simply interpreted as positive for the crypto circle. After all, although BTC does not completely follow the US stock market, global risk appetite, tech stock capital sentiment, and US dollar liquidity all affect the short-term trend of the crypto market. I am now more concerned about the performance after the US market opens tonight. If the Nasdaq continues to strengthen and tech leaders can drive the semiconductor sector's recovery, then BTC may gain new risk appetite $BTC $ETH $ZEC all rebound together but with shrinking volume across the board: Bulls are treating the breather as a bull market, while I’m watching liquidity recovery below
BTC around 80596, daily chart above EMA7 78386, yet still suppressed by EMA25 80639 and Supertrend 82920; daily volume is only 14% of the 7-day average, 1-hour RSI is already overheated. Contract funding rate +0.0024%, top traders long positions account for 65.37%, open interest slightly increased. As price approaches resistance, bulls leverage up first. This "rebound equals reversal" script makes me want to ask: who is providing exit liquidity for whom?
ETH around 2431, running above EMA7 2309, but EMA25 2372 and Supertrend 2490 still form dense resistance above; RSI6 at 72.76, intraday volume ratio only 0.09. ZEC around 1316, EMA moving stronger, MACD golden cross, but volume ratio also only 0.08, Supertrend still above 1460. Indicators can repair, but trend confirmation cannot rely on a single low-volume bullish candle.
Policy and industry narratives in market briefs can restore sentiment but cannot make up for the lack of support in the order book. I talk bullish but don’t go long, talk bearish and definitely short; from a bearish perspective, BTC 75736, ETH 2174, ZEC 1120 remain liquidity observation zones below, not trade signals. Are those blindly bottom-fishing, holding long positions, and treating every rebound as a new cycle really ready to face the pullback after shrinking volume? $CORE still has supporters on OKX who believe this public chain is operational, but looking at the on-chain data, it resembles more of a static specimen.
The ecosystem list registers about three hundred contracts, but only a dozen or so truly have sustained funding, real users, and stable transactions. Most of the rest are DApps quickly deployed from templates, originally created just to participate in airdrops; once incentives stop, users and funds quickly exit, leaving only dead contract records.
The liquidity falseness is even more prominent: DEX transaction counts are not few, but the actual daily transaction amount is only $148, with many scripted addresses interacting back and forth. Blocks continue to be produced as usual, but there is no effective economic activity. The staking side also speaks volumes: BTC staking scale has been declining steadily from its peak, a large amount of CORE flows out as it unlocks, and during the same period, related official addresses transfer large amounts of tokens to exchanges. Externally, they talk about locked positions being optimistic, but on-chain transfer traces remain, showing a clear contradiction between narrative and actions.
The conclusion is simple: when evaluating a public chain, don’t just look at the number of contracts and transaction counts; look at real funds, real users, and sustainable incentives. The hustle can be staged, but transfers don’t lie. $CORE #Circle稳定币公链Arc上线 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC has retaken the 80,000 level. This recent pump is mainly due to a short squeeze, where a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, pushing the price up forcefully. But the awkward part is that in the previous days, ETFs have been experiencing continuous outflows, and institutions have not actively entered the market to buy.
The essence of a short squeeze is that shorts are forced to cover their positions by buying, which is passive buying, not people willingly putting money in. Once all the shorts that need to be liquidated are cleared, this driving force will immediately stop. If ETFs cannot reverse the trend and see continuous stable inflows, this move is very likely a bull trap designed to catch those chasing the highs.
Moreover, there are many trapped positions waiting to be freed above, and whales will take profits in batches during the rebound. Even if the price temporarily holds, without sustained spot capital support afterward, any negative news can quickly push the price back down.
Simply put, this cannot yet be considered a trend reversal. To confirm it’s not a bull trap, watch two things: first, whether ETFs can continuously receive inflows, and second, whether the price can hold with volume without frequent sharp spikes. Until these signals appear, don’t get overly confident and heavily chase this kind of short squeeze rally, as it can reverse faster than flipping a page. $ETH $ZEC
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 Yesterday morning BTC plunged to 75736, then surged directly to 81196 in the evening. Within one day, first it forced you to cut losses, then pressured you to chase the high — this is not a market trend, it's the main force clearing out positions.
That sharp drop downward wasn't a real dump. There were stop-loss orders suppressed below 76300 for half a month; without clearing them out, it couldn't rally. The evidence is in the volume: the morning drop had no volume, the evening surge's volume was nearly four times higher. A drop without volume is a fake fall, a rise with volume is the real deal.
So, although it appeared to rise 7% yesterday, in reality, all the positions that needed to be cut were already cleared.
But after this kind of move, it won't surge straight up. After one shakeout, the second pullback is often deeper, testing if you still dare to hold.
My hat was pierced yesterday, I admit that, no pretending to be a guru. Today I just say: I won’t chase at this level. It’s not bearish, but until the weekly moving averages hold, the odds of chasing higher aren’t worth it. Wait for it to pull back below 80000 before considering.
BTC #Bitcoin #LiveTradingRecord #ShakeoutNoChase NEAR's token reduction proposal has passed, current price is about 4.05, up about 7% in 24h, I won't chase for now.
House of Stake passed HSP-029 on November 2 with about 99.96% support, voting power around 3.29 million veNEAR.
The annual issuance cap will be reduced from 2.5% to 1.6%, linearly decreasing over 24 months; after full implementation, daily issuance will drop from about 89,500 tokens to 57,300 tokens.
But it hasn't taken effect yet: the security council veto window lasts until November 16, followed by about a 90-day preparation period and validator upgrades.
OKX current price is about 4.053, 24h high 4.273, low 3.694, contract open interest about 52.1 million USD, funding rate about +0.01%.
I think the token reduction is a medium- to long-term positive, but the "vote passing" has already been priced in; there are still many gates before actual implementation, so chasing the high is not cost-effective.
What I will do: observe and not chase. First see if it can hold above 4.00; if it breaks below 3.75, this rebound narrative is considered invalid.
Will you wait for the security council's approval before acting, or do you think the vote itself is enough?
$NEAR $ETH $BTC
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress #CircleQ3RevenueExceedsExpectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%Under the 75,000 threshold, is there a pile of multiple forced liquidation pressures?
In this round of the market, CEX longs have clustered their positions at similar price levels, BTC only rose slightly, but the weak points of leverage are clearly exposed. 75,000 is the common defensive line relied upon by these longs; once broken, automatic liquidations will trigger consecutively, and short-term selling pressure may accelerate the downward speed.
This is just the fragile structure inherent in crowded positions and does not necessarily mean the market will weaken; whether the phase switches depends on whether this threshold can be effectively broken. Don't treat the liquidation chart as a directional prophecy; it is more like a thermometer of position distribution.
Open the positions page, check margin, liquidation price, and individual leverage one by one, and confirm that losses remain within preset limits in the worst case. Dense leverage is like stones stacked on a narrow bridge—quiet under normal conditions, but when the force balance is lost, they will all roll down together.If all the bad news has already come out, what else can push BTC down? So, who do you think will be the first to start the next emotional recovery? Watching the market these days gives a very subtle feeling: Binance just went through turmoil, the US midterm elections are stirring things up again, spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, tech stocks are dropping along, and $BTC keeps getting pressed around $76,000 repeatedly. It’s not easy to feel good about this; this dense pile of negative news makes the market feel suffocated. But when I reviewed the market late at night, I suddenly thought from a different angle: these reasons have already been traded and priced in repeatedly. ETF outflows, election uncertainty, risk appetite contraction — the funds that should panic have most likely already acted. The real question is, if these noises gradually fade away, what new story can the bears use to keep pushing prices down? This doesn’t mean that once the bad news is exhausted, the market will immediately rally, and $70,000 is not a guaranteed bottom; it’s just that when bad news becomes old, its marginal impact diminishes. Looking through the lens of capital preference, it’s even more interesting. Money is clearly more willing to stay in places with high certainty now; tech stocks and crypto are both under pressure, indicating that the overall risk budget is shrinking rather than BTC being singled out. This phase is usually tougher for altcoins because capital first protects large-cap and highly liquid assets, while narrative coins and long-tail assets passively bleed out. Conversely, once sentiment warms up, BTC and ETH often recover first, then it’s the turn of high-beta sectors, so don’t rush to jump ahead in altcoins. I’m also adjusting my own position management: not chasing the candlestick, not changing the script just because of one bullish candle, fixed $BTC Many of these pending orders are not genuine buy orders held to the end; quite a few are placed below to lure buyers. Once the market drops, these orders are canceled in an instant, and the support disappears immediately. Moreover, these are just pending orders for perpetual contracts on exchanges, not actual spot holdings absorbed by real buyers, which is completely different from genuine institutional spot purchases.
Another point is that order books on other exchanges are much thinner. If a large sell order suddenly hits, smaller platforms can't hold it, causing sharp price spikes that easily trigger contract stop-losses. Recently, Ethereum has been weaker than Bitcoin; even if there are short-term support orders, the selling pressure above is significant. As soon as Bitcoin turns down, Ethereum tends to fall even faster.
In short, this data only proves that some traders don't want the price to crash immediately in the short term; it's a short-term sentiment signal and cannot be taken as evidence of a major rally. If large orders continue to absorb sell orders above and spot trading volume picks up, then there is some substance; if orders just stay below without moving, it's most likely a support trap to lure buyers into chasing highs. Leverage positions must be controlled carefully, as this kind of order book can change suddenly. $ETH $ZEC
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Sony will release its fiscal year 2026 Q2 (July–September) earnings report on November 5. Combining the Q1 disclosed data and the full-year guidance, the core focus for the two main segments, gaming and music, is not "which grows faster," but rather the divergence in profit quality: gaming shows revenue contraction with profit resilience, while music shows steady revenue growth but pressure on profit margins.DePIN rose 5.79% this time, and I think the most easily overestimated aspect is the independent market implication behind the term "leading the rise." According to this information, the crypto sector generally rebounded, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rising simultaneously, and Aethir and Render within DePIN also showing significant gains.
When I look at sector rankings, I usually first check the background color: is the entire market warming up, or is only one corner lighting up? Leading in a broadly rising environment can indicate stronger current performance but does not directly prove that capital is making a long-term bet on this sector. Price moving in the same direction and a change in investment logic are two different things.
This is quite important for ordinary users. Rankings only show results, which can easily lead people to translate "quick bounce today" as "will be strong going forward." My guess is, if the broader market later stabilizes and DePIN can still maintain relative strength, then the explanation of an independent market is more convincing; if the advantage disappears with the broad rise, this ranking looks more like an amplification of sentiment.
So for now, I record it as a strong performance rather than evidence of sector revaluation. What I want to watch next is whether DePIN can stay at the forefront when the market is not so lively.The 1H candle at 5 AM is the one I want to break down.
$APP perpetual contract traded $3.938 million in that hour, 65.7 times the previous candle's $59,900; open interest rose from 518,000 at 04:00 to 1,669,000 at 10:00, a 222.5% increase over 6 hours.
Let's lay out the facts first: AppLovin Q3 revenue was $2.18 billion, up 55% year-over-year, exceeding its own guidance by $100 million, and Q4 guidance also beat expectations; the stock closed at 271.75 on 11-04, surged to 344.24 after hours, latest at 333.80.
Three numbers:
1. Funding rate turned negative. It was 0 all day on 11-04, settled at -0.264%/8h at 08:00, currently -0.721%. Negative means shorts pay longs.
2. Perpetual at 325.87, 0.68% below the index price of 328.11, 0.56% below OKX tokenized spot XAPP (327.69), and 2.37% below the stock after-hours price of 333.80. Going long captures discount plus subsidy.
3. Thin order book. Perpetual 24h volume is 12.84 million, spot only 455,000, 28 times difference; top 20 levels on perpetual add up to just $9,132. With 25x leverage at this depth, one slip is painful enough.
Background: Closed at 618.32 on January 2, now 333.80, down 46.0% year-to-date.
I don't chase the first gap driven by earnings. Do you think this discount is an opportunity, or that shorts haven't finished running?$BTC 80648 $ETH 2429 $SOL 96 All three RSIs are at the peak. I've already placed my short orders, waiting for the waterfall.
RSI at the peak? Brother, look at the funding rates: BTC is only 0.0086%, ETH 0.0053%. These rates are barely a splash. If it were really overheated, it would have exploded long ago. You can place short orders, but I advise you not to go all in hastily—how long can RSI overbought conditions stay without causing losses? Indicators are just secondary compared to the trend.
ETH has surged the most this round, a 7.7% increase pushing the price right up to the Bollinger upper band near 2450, RSI at 77.7, which looks scary. But MA7 has already touched 2426, and the price is moving up along the moving average. This structure looks more like a continuation than a top. BTC is steadier; above 80600, MA7 is holding firm, and there's still some distance to the upper band at 81600. If a waterfall is coming, it would first test 81300-81600.
SOL is actually the most honest; RSI at 71 just crossed the line, and the Bollinger upper band at 97.4 is its ceiling. Shorting it is more cost-effective than shorting BTC and ETH. My view is straightforward: now is not the time to short everything. If you want to short, watch SOL around 97 for a test position. BTC and ETH are indeed overbought, but until the trend turns, shorting is just giving away your position. Keep your position light, set stop losses properly, and don't fight the trend.A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory trend officially reversed, confirmed by higher lows + higher highs at close
Chan Theory first buy at 75,607 confirmed, upward stroke initiated
Wave Theory C wave ends at 75,607, Wave ① V reversal target 81,879-83,550
Volume-price relationship + 2.336 billion/37.8 billion = ultimate shakeout confirmed
Order flow price has returned inside VA, buy-side dominant
Price action ultimate shakeout + V-shaped reversal, complete bottom structure
Six-dimensional comprehensive: 75,607 is the ultimate bottom after six weeks of decline, trend officially reversed. Currently in the consolidation period after Wave ① V reversal, breaking through 81,879 confirms a new bull market, target 83,550-84,150. Falling below 78,000 means V reversal failed, requiring reassessment.
$BTC Orbit Daily $SUI The SUI Foundation has completely stopped supporting the price.
After calculating, they only repurchased 1 million tokens throughout the year, but in a single month, over 20 million tokens are unlocked and dumped. A supply-demand gap of more than ten times, trying to put out a fire with a spoon here.
There isn't even a burn mechanism on the market; all newly minted tokens have to be held up by retail investors. With such heavy sell orders pressing down, what do the bulls have to push the price up? Any rebound is just giving shorts an opportunity to sell high and open positions.
#SUI
$SUI
👇BTC rebound hits resistance at 81300! Can the bulls continue to push, or will it turn down again?
The US midterm election results have caused the market to readjust expectations. The Democrats took both chambers of Congress, but Trump still controls the White House. In the short term, regulatory bills may face obstacles, and the market is first digesting the pressure from policy uncertainty; but from a medium-term perspective, the division of power also reduces the likelihood of radical policy shifts, so risk assets have repair expectations. Additionally, the Fed policy outlook for December remains tight, and the macro environment is not yet sufficient to support a full bullish stance.
Funding: BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows, with a significant cumulative withdrawal in recent days, and institutional buying has not yet shown clear recovery.
The total supply of stablecoins is contracting simultaneously, with insufficient new on-chain funds. Combined with increased inflows to exchanges, this rally looks more like short covering after overselling rather than large-scale new capital entering.
Sentiment: Market fear has eased somewhat, with the greed index returning near 43, but still far from true frenzy.
Currently, both bulls and bears are cautious, and macro policies and the December Fed meeting remain key variables affecting the market going forward.
Technical: Yesterday BTC made a strong V-shaped rebound, but after the rise, it did not open new space directly and has now returned to a critical position of bull-bear contention.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ a16z's $HYPE sell-off is still ongoing🤨
In the past 16 hours, a total of 148,145 HYPE has been deposited to major exchanges, with a total value of 12.63 million USD and an average deposit price of $85.26
As the largest external entity holding HYPE, since 10.30 they have transferred a total of 233,000 HYPE, worth over 20.6 million USD. If sold, the profit would be 1.141 million USD#BTC enters JPMorgan's long-term forecast, institutional allocation remains cautious
$BTC $ZEC $XAU JPMorgan Asset Management has included BTC in its long-term capital market assumptions report for the first time, marking a symbolic shift, but this does not mean a bullish stance or a recommendation for heavy allocation.
Baseline expectation: BTC's annualized return over the next decade is 10%, higher than US stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%; optimistic and pessimistic scenarios differ greatly, with the pessimistic path showing negative long-term returns. The cost is an annualized volatility as high as 55%, three times that of US stocks, and significant drawdowns will directly erode compound returns.
Key points:
1. This is only a standalone scenario calculation, not included in mainstream asset allocation models; qualitatively, BTC is still considered a speculative asset, not a portfolio core holding or a standard hedge tool; BTC's correlation with other assets is unstable, making it difficult to use for stable risk diversification.
2. Institutional stance: They acknowledge BTC has long-term return potential but is only suitable for aggressive funds as a small satellite position, not for conservative funds or core holdings. Regulatory, liquidity, and compliance risks remain looming concerns.
3. Market interpretation: This news is more of a sentiment boost, representing BTC being "seen by mainstream institutions," but it does not immediately bring sustained incremental capital; it should not be taken as a reversal signal.
In summary: Wall Street is starting to account for BTC in the long term, but risk control thresholds are high; institutional acceptance is slow and limited, with caution as the main theme.
Brothers, what are your thoughts going forward? The bulls have been well fed these past couple of days…I saw the news and first did a stress test in my mind: if the policy implementation is slower than expected, can the account withstand it? I first consider the worst-case scenario; this is a habit I developed from risk control.
According to the Stand With Crypto page, out of the 435 House seats in the U.S. midterm elections, 397 have been decided, with 226 elected from the crypto-supporting camp; of the 35 Senate seats up for election, 33 have been decided, with 19 from the supporting camp elected. What concerns me more is the mismatch between the policy implementation cycle and the trading risk horizon.
⚠️ The supporter label does not mean agreement on every bill, and the number of supporters cannot be directly converted into bill passage rates; legislation still has procedures, and election results cannot be taken as execution dates; if the market prices in optimistic expectations early, the policy waiting period may become a pressure period for leveraged positions. This is my risk analysis.
My reminder is: ordinary people should first convert the worst single loss into a proportion of total capital, and not let political narratives decide their risk budget for them. #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
Sony will release its FY2026 Q2 earnings report before the US market opens tomorrow evening (expected revenue down 5.5%, EPS up 8.6%). The core logic lies in the "scissors gap" between revenue and profit:
🎮 Games (G&NS): Focus on organic profit elasticity
Full-year guidance shows revenue down 6%, but profit target up 42%. Last quarter, PS5 shipments fell 36%, but digital content (85% share) and DLC (29% share) effectively provided a floor. Key points to watch this quarter:
1. Whether PS Plus subscriptions and digital software can continue to grow;
2. The marginal erosion of hardware profits due to rising storage chip prices;
3. After excluding one-time benefits such as last quarter's tariff refunds, whether profit elasticity is still independently supported by the core business.
🎵 Music: Growth is very stable, but watch out for profit margin dilution
Last quarter revenue increased 20%, with strong streaming and copyright monetization. But profit growth (14%) lagged revenue growth. This quarter, focus on: the impact of copyright amortization and content investment on profit margins, and the efficiency of converting incremental revenue into operating profit.
📊 Overall assessment: High probability of exceeding expectations, but "fluff" needs to be stripped away
Currently, 85% of the community is bullish. Baseline judgment: slight outperformance is supported by fundamentals. If the market prices only based on headline numbers and ignores the decline of one-time gains, an expectation gap may form. Key focus is whether management maintains or raises the full-year profit guidance.A crypto market maker raised $12 million in funding and is starting to target Wall Street
On November 2, London capital market company LO:TECH announced the completion of a $12 million Series A funding round, led by MMC. The funds will be used to expand into the New York and Singapore markets.
This company currently serves over 50 institutions, with businesses including digital asset market making, market data, and trade execution.
Its ambition is significant: it hopes to connect traditional financial assets with on-chain markets, laying out all-weather trading and tokenized stocks.
But one detail cannot be overlooked: the currently launched business still mainly focuses on proprietary trading and digital asset liquidity services, while regulated business still requires approval.
I believe the value of such companies lies not in how many tokens they issue, but in whether they can truly provide liquidity and reduce trading costs.
The next round of Web3 competition may not necessarily be won by token issuance projects, but possibly by companies providing trading infrastructure for the entire market. A historical pattern about $BTC and the US midterm elections:
2014: Bottomed 71 days after the election, $170
2018: Bottomed 39 days after the election, $3,200
2022: Bottomed 13 days after the election, $15,500
Afterwards, Bitcoin rose more than 100x, 20x, and 8x respectively from the lows.
Notably, the time needed to reach the bottom has been shortening each cycle.
Will the market offer a similar opportunity again this time?
Historical patterns are worth studying but do not guarantee repetition in the future.