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A mining company endorsed by Eric Trump just released its Q3 financial report, and the most striking figure isn't revenue, but the string of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
The facts are clear: American Bitcoin held 8,427 BTC at the end of Q3, about 5% more than Q2; it mined 891 BTC during the quarter, with revenue of $63.4 million. Putting these three numbers together, the market reads not how much was earned, but how much was retained.
The mining company model is evolving. In the past, it was hash power exchanged for fiat: mine and sell immediately, pay electricity bills, and repay machine loans. Now, $BTC is treated as an asset: mined coins are not sold but added to the balance sheet, using equity and debt financing to expand hash power. Once the coin-based model is established, miners shift from sellers to holders.
The impact on price structure is slow but real. Every additional mining company hoarding coins reduces the amount of new supply available for circulation. As long as demand doesn't collapse, marginal buyers face an increasingly thin sell-side.
One more detail worth calculating yourself: this quarter mined 891 BTC, but reserves only grew by about 5%. How wide is the gap between what was mined and what was retained? The financial report won't say directly. When looking at mining companies hoarding coins, don't just look at total reserves; you have to see whether they are selling or not.a16z's $HYPE sell-off is still ongoing🤨
In the past 16 hours, a total of 148,145 HYPE has been deposited to major exchanges, with a total value of 12.63 million USD and an average deposit price of $85.26
As the largest external entity holding HYPE, since 10.30 they have transferred a total of 233,000 HYPE, worth over 20.6 million USD. If sold, the profit would be 1.141 million USD$ETH spot ETF net outflow reached $1.61 billion in a single month, directly breaking the historical record.
For a whole month, institutions have basically been withdrawing unilaterally every day.
The last time institutions fled like this, the price dropped 34% over the following three months.
Retail investors on the exchange are still shouting daily to buy the dip and rebound.
Meanwhile, Wall Street has long openly dumped their chips back into the market.
There isn't even a decent buy order visible on the order book; whoever wants to hold at this level can go ahead.
#ETH
$ETH
👇BTC currently shows a clear divergence in time cycles: the original post mentioned that spot products have experienced capital outflows for three consecutive trading days as of November 3, totaling approximately $1.158 billion; meanwhile, JPMorgan has for the first time included BTC in its 2027 long-term capital market assumptions. According to this estimate, BTC's benchmark annualized return over the next ten to fifteen years is about 10%, higher than the 7.5% of the US stock market, but with an annualized volatility reaching 55%, and a correlation with US stocks of about 33%. The original post thus believes that due to unstable correlation, uncertain diversification effects, and high volatility, BTC has not yet entered the mainstream institutional asset allocation matrix. This seems more like a change in the long-term research framework and cannot be directly equated with large-scale institutional buying. 💡 My view. Long-term expectations and short-term capital flows are not contradictory. Institutions can recognize BTC's long-term return potential while controlling allocation proportions at the current stage; continuous outflows indicate that short-term funds remain cautious. Looking at both together, the market seems to be in a phase where expectations lead but capital has not yet followed. The original post also cited Strategy founder Saylor's judgment, stating that BTC has completed bottom formation, a new upward cycle has begun, and he is optimistic about an average annual increase of 20%–30% in the coming years, with a target to challenge the 100,000 mark again; he also believes that traditional financial entry and continued team accumulation will provide momentum. This is a personal view and expectation; subsequent developments will still depend on whether capital flows can stop falling and rebound. Are you more focused on the long-term allocation logic or the short-term signals from continuous outflows in spot products? #BTC enters JPMorganShort squeeze rebound, ETF still bleeding
BTC around 80,500, ETH 2,424. After the election results, BTC rebounded from 75,600 to touch 81,000, and the fear and greed index rose back to 50.
The rebound relies on short covering, not active buying.
Nearly 1 billion liquidations across the network in 24h, shorts account for nearly 600 million. Trading volume expanded, but open interest contracts decreased by 4.36%, indicating existing shorts are stopping losses rather than new funds entering.
The funding situation remains weak.
BTC spot ETF outflows for three consecutive trading days, weak willingness to take over funds, rebound sustainability is questionable.
Macro focus:
Midterm elections concluded, regulatory battles continue. The real core trigger is tomorrow night's non-farm payroll data, which will directly set the tone for December rate hike expectations.
Key levels:
BTC: Upper resistance at 82,600 is the main wave threshold, lower psychological support at 80,000; if broken, look to 78,000.
ETH: Upper strong resistance at 2,439-2,465, lower support at 2,400-2,365.
In short: Shorts being squeezed provide the rebound, but lack of buying support. Do not chase longs, wait for a pullback to stabilize at 80,000 before watching further; control positions before the non-farm data.Caught an extremely mind-gamey whale order on the $ETH chain.
A big player is holding 90,000 Ethereum shorts, tightly pressed with low-leverage across the entire position, leaving the liquidation line extremely high.
The bulls are paying interest every day to support the main dumping force, who has already freeloaded $4.5 million just from funding fees.
Low leverage plus unlimited interest collection—this is the real landlord rent-collecting flow.
No wonder when the market takes a breather, it plays dead; when the market weakens, it crashes the hardest. With such a fully defensive short position hanging overhead, don’t expect any short-term rebound.
#ETH
$ETH
👇Exclusive Market Analysis for November 5
1. Shorts Have Become the Fuel for the Rally
In the analysis from the past two days, we mentioned a key level: $80736. If the price rebounds to this point, more than $1.3 billion worth of short positions will be liquidated.
The election results triggered forced buybacks, which accelerated the price rally. Shorts were squeezed and became the fuel for the upward move.
2. Negative Funding Rates and Declining Open Interest Are the Most Important Signals Right Now
Data from OKX shows: BTC's 8-hour average funding rate is about -0.0044%, and the basis rate dropped to about -0.00215%, hitting a nine-month low.
Historically, similar bottom scenarios are characterized by negative funding rates and concentrated large short liquidations. This historical bottom pattern is preliminarily forming now.
3. Key Data Analysis
Upper channel target: $82600. Analyst Yili Hua: After touching the $75,700 downtrend line, the upper channel target is set; a strong breakout could trigger a pullback.
Core resistance: $81300–$81500
Bull-bear dividing line: $80000. Regaining and holding this level is a condition for the market to ease short-term caution; closing below it would downgrade the rebound's quality.
First support: $79500–$79800, a 4-hour short-term support zone. If the price tests but does not break below, the rebound structure remains intact.
Key support: $78000–$78300, the next level after losing $79500 $CAP just placed a takeout order, and while waiting for the food, I glanced at the market and was so shocked that my hand trembled, quickly closing out the small short position I had. This wasn’t just waiting for takeout; it was almost waiting for a liquidation!
【Hardcore Review of this "Extreme Short Squeeze"】:
Looking at the 15-minute chart, CAP was pulled up hard from 0.072. I just shorted at a high of 0.09942 (point S), thinking, "Since you dare to go long, I dare to short." After all, the MACD had already formed a death cross at a high level, and the green bars were showing, so it really looked like a pullback was coming.
But switching to the second chart data, I broke out in a cold sweat: the short accounts ratio actually surged to 71.87%! The long-short ratio dropped to a terrifying 0.39!
【Unique Insight: Short is Long, Long is Short】:
Friends, this script is too familiar. Everyone was counter-trend shorting at the top; this 70% short position is the fattest fuel in the eyes of the market makers. The market makers would never kindly let the shorts profit together. Most likely, they will forcibly push the price up to blow out all the high-leverage shorts before a real drop.
【My Trading Advice】:
I was so scared I quickly closed my position to break even and took profits! For these extreme short squeeze tokens, never try to guess the top, and don’t stubbornly hold on. With shorts so crowded now, let’s just grab a small stool and watch how the market makers wipe out this 70% short army. As long as the green hills remain, there’s no fear of running out of takeout!💻 I want to break down this input according to code review: According to Odaily monitoring, a certain address increased its long position by 3,875 $ZEC from 09:09 to 10:07, raising the holding to 15,000.19 coins. The contract account's cumulative profit is about 21.35 million USD.
My judgment: This seems more like a sentiment signal rather than a fundamental bullish factor. There are two logical points to check: the account's cumulative profit is not equal to the profit from this $ZEC long position; mixing them causes variable confusion. The address increasing its position shows it is adding to its long exposure, but this action alone cannot verify the coin's value. Directly inferring "making money before" as "this time is also right" lacks testing in between.
If it were me, I would look at the account profit, single coin holdings, and position increase actions separately in the information to avoid piecing together what looks like a complete winning rate report. Next, I want to observe whether the position increase continues, rather than using historical profits to endorse the current position.Platform coins rely on security narratives to support their valuations. The trust crisis fallout from the neighboring exchange hasn't dissipated, and the election has pulled risk appetite back. Among these platform coins, which one has stronger security attributes?
$BNB shows the most obvious repair in security narrative among the three. Binance released a PoR audit report on November 2 to patch the trust crisis, and on election day, risk appetite rebounded back to around 715; however, BSC's daily active addresses had previously dropped by 14% due to incidents. Currently, BNB's security reputation is still being restored, but adoption hasn't caught up yet.
$HYPE actually weakened that day, as two whales dumped after ICE revised the perps plan, compounded by the November 6 unlock expectation scaring off short-term traders. However, the team clarified on Discord that only 180,000 tokens were actually distributed, accounting for 1.2% of daily volume; the 9.92 million shown on trackers was a false alarm. Panic hasn't subsided, and no one dares to make a move.
$OKB remains the most boring but also the most stable. It neither rose nor fell on election day, and its defensive attributes were validated amid the chaos. It is purely a deflationary shadow token, and holding it as a defense in these times is more practical than chasing highs.
BNB relies on PoR to restore trust but ecosystem adoption lags behind; HYPE is dragged down by unlock expectations and persistent panic; OKB neither rises nor falls, but instead demonstrates the most solid defensive attributes amid the turmoil.First, to pour some cold water on this, I don't accept translating this reduction in position directly as "smart money turning bearish." According to Odaily's monitoring, a certain address completed 42 rounds of BTC transactions from September 18 to October 30, with a single-asset win rate of about 98%; from November 4 to 5, it net reduced long positions by about $6.7 million, and currently still holds about $18.1 million in $BTC long positions. My judgment: this is a risk reduction by the bulls, not yet a confirmed bearish move.
I mainly focus on two points. First, the remaining long position value after reduction is still higher than the net reduced amount this time, so the directional position remains. Calling "reducing a bit" as "turning bearish" is too much of a stretch. Second, a single address's position change does not equal a full market fund withdrawal; the data lacks its complete asset allocation and other accounts' hedging information. I don't know why it reduced, so I'm even less willing to take one action as a statement for the entire market.
Of course, the bears might be right. If this address continues to cut long positions, while prices weaken and the market sees a broader withdrawal of bulls, I will increase the weight of this signal. These are my verification conditions, not something that has already happened. Even though I lean bearish, I can't use someone else's position reduction to bolster my own confidence. Regarding the significance of this news for the short-term direction, who stands bullish or bearish? Please state your reasons, especially clarifying which evidence is still missing. [819 Million USD Liquidation, Shorts Suffer Even More from the Rebound]
In the past 24 hours, about $810 million worth of crypto contracts were liquidated, with shorts accounting for approximately $579 million and longs about $240 million. The largest single liquidation was on $ETH, valued at $37.9991 million. Shorts made up over 70%, indicating that the main driving force of this rally came from short covering after the price rebound.
$BTC previously dipped below $76,000 but then reclaimed $80,000, with a single-day gain exceeding 4% at one point. After the US midterm election results were finalized, the weakening dollar and recovery of risk assets also provided an external environment for the crypto market rebound. The price increase triggered short liquidations, and forced buying further pushed prices up, forming a typical short squeeze chain.
However, this rally cannot yet be considered a trend reversal. Open interest actually decreased by about 1% during the same period, indicating that many positions were passively closed and new leverage did not expand simultaneously. After clearing the previously accumulated shorts, further upward movement requires spot buying to take over.
The short squeeze has already occurred in the short term, but whether the market can turn into a reversal depends on whether BTC can hold above $80,000 and continue to reclaim resistance above. Short squeezes can push prices up, but what truly determines how far it can go is whether real money continues to enter the market.ZEC 24h: First dipped to 1,172, then surged to 1,349, currently at 1,321 (+11.8%)
After briefly dipping to 1,172 yesterday afternoon, the market reversed overnight: the price broke through the 1,248 decline zone and the previous high resistance at 1,297, reaching a peak of 1,349.4 before falling back to 1,321 in the early morning. During the same period, BTC rose +5.5%, ZEC showed nearly double the volatility.
The most notable aspect is not the price increase, but the open interest: 24h OI +24.3%, rising to 180 million — this indicates new funds entering the market, not short covering. The funding rate remains at +0.008%, signaling the market has shifted from "deleveraging" to "re-leveraging."
Assessment: The breakout of 1,248-1,297 is valid, and Monday's panic low at 1,125 has been confirmed as a phase bottom. Currently, 1,321 is consolidating after the breakout, with resistance at the 1,349 high and the previous high of 1,395; as long as the pullback does not break below 1,297 (previous high turned support), the bullish structure remains intact.
Risk: Multiple instances of extreme sell pressure with buy/sell ratios between 0.20-0.46 occurred at high levels within single hours, indicating profit-taking above 1,320. Chasing highs requires waiting for a pullback; it is not advisable to chase gains near 1,340. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
US Stock Market Analysis: The Blue Wave Lands, Why Did the Index Surge While Your Chip Stocks Plummeted?
The Democrats swept both the House and Senate, with the Dow soaring 1,569 points overnight, a 3.03% increase to 53,356.12 points, marking the largest single-day gain in over a year; the S&P 500 rose 1.58%, and the Nasdaq increased 1.44%. But if you only bought chip stocks, the experience might be completely different.
Macroeconomic news has effectively split the US stock market in two.
The election removed political uncertainty, with the market betting on limited fiscal expansion and easing geopolitical tensions. Crude oil plunged nearly 9% to $87.49, the 10-year US Treasury yield sharply dropped to 4.89%, the dollar fell 0.33%, and gold surged over 3% to above $4,060.
Transmission to equities: Microsoft rose 6.7%, Amazon 6.1%, Apple over 5%, with mega-platforms becoming cash flow safe havens; meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3%, Micron plunged 7%, Nvidia dropped 3%, CoreWeave nearly 10%, and the energy sector overall declined nearly 5%.
Money hasn't left the market; it has just violently rotated from the "computing power narrative" to "cash flow certainty." The probability of a December rate hike remains near 80%, but today the market chose to trade politics first, then price in the Federal Reserve.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
US Stock Market News Analysis: The Midterm Election "Boot Drops," So Why Are Tech Giants Torn in Two?
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow surging 1,569 points, up 3.03% to 53,356.12, marking the largest single-day gain in a year and a half; the Nasdaq rose 1.44%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.58%. But beneath the index rally, sector splits were extremely severe.
On the turnover leaderboard, Apple rose 5.31% with $31.259 billion in trading volume, reclaiming the top market cap spot; Microsoft gained 6.68% with $28.073 billion in volume, hitting a record high; Amazon rose 6.12% with $24.863 billion in volume.
On the other hand, Nvidia fell 3.17% with $29.982 billion in volume, Micron Technology plunged 7.00% with $28.606 billion in volume, and Tesla dropped 3.34% with $18.328 billion in volume.
The core variable in the news is the midterm election: the Democrats swept Congress, eliminating political uncertainty, Trump expressed willingness to cooperate, and risk appetite instantly released.
However, the Democrats' policy stance directly hits data centers and the chip supply chain, with CoreWeave down nearly 10%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once falling over 2%.
Meanwhile, hyperscale cloud providers became a safe haven, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all surging, as market logic shifted from "buying computing power" to "buying cash flow." Whale's “Short Rent Collection Scheme” (￣▽￣)
A certain whale was detected shorting BTC/ETH/SOL simultaneously in the perpetual market, with a nominal value of about $660 million. The three legs performed differently: BTC has an unrealized loss of $3.62 million, but the funding fee is $3.59 million, almost offsetting it; ETH has an unrealized profit of $2.35 million and a funding fee of $4.56 million; SOL has an unrealized profit of $346,000 and a funding fee of $3.96 million. The total funding fees of the three legs amount to about $12.12 million, which still contributes positively after covering unrealized losses (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
In its full-position mode, BTC/ETH use 5x leverage, SOL uses 7x. The opening prices are $76,383 / $2,322.71 / $94.33 respectively, with liquidation prices at $137,256 / $3,793.19 / $292.81. It’s clear that it doesn’t rely on short-term dumping but rather long-term shorts collecting funding fees, exchanging time for space (•̀ᴗ•́)و.
However, the full-position margin linkage is a hidden risk: once extreme market conditions approach the liquidation price, the three legs will drag each other down (╥﹏╥). This scheme profits from patience but fears black swan events.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 【JPMorgan Sets a 10% Annualized Return for BTC, but Institutions Withdraw $1.16 Billion Over Three Consecutive Days】
JPMorgan has finally included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market forecast, projecting an annualized compound return of about 10%, higher than the 7.5% for the U.S. stock market. This marks a formal recognition by traditional finance of BTC's long-term investment value, but don't rush to interpret this as institutions preparing to make large purchases.
The report also indicates a 55% annualized volatility. This figure means that although $BTC has higher long-term expected returns, its holding process is much more volatile than stocks. Therefore, JPMorgan did not include BTC in the main asset covariance matrix but instead established a smaller, separate comparative model. The real concern for institutions is not whether BTC can rise, but whether it can play a stable role within a portfolio.
However, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive trading days through November 3, totaling about $1.157 billion, with the largest single-day outflow on October 30 reaching $643 million; IBIT still experienced an outflow of $95 million on November 3.
This can be seen as a difference in two time dimensions:
Wall Street is beginning to acknowledge that BTC deserves long-term study and allocation, but it still faces two hurdles—volatility and correlation—before becoming a conventional portfolio asset like stocks or bonds.
Long-term forecasts are an endorsement, but continuous buying is the true allocation. The current consecutive outflows from ETFs indicate that institutional demand is not yet strong enough to support the short-term market.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Sony's gaming and music businesses are the two most closely watched segments in this earnings report.
In gaming, the PS5 ecosystem foundation is solid, with stable subscription and digital game revenues, but console shipments, new release schedules, and R&D investments will cause performance fluctuations; elasticity depends on the performance of major games.
The music business is more stable, relying on its copyright library, streaming revenue shares, and concert-related income, showing strong resilience to economic cycles and serving as an important profit stabilizer.
Additionally, changes in the yen exchange rate will impact overseas revenue. Overall, gaming is about elasticity, music is about stability.
⚠️For industry analysis purposes only, not investment advice. Less than 48 hours after winning control of both chambers, the Democrats have started rewriting crypto rules: the SEC is set to regain dominance, while the CFTC will be weakened.
Reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed on November 4 that House Democrats are planning a new crypto market structure bill.
The draft is based on Waters' 2025 "Crypto Investor and Consumer Protection Act," which was previously rejected.
The fate of the old bill illustrates the trend: it passed the House 294 to 134.
But on September 15, the Senate stalled it at 49 to 50 on a procedural motion, 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold.
The new proposal may also add an ethics clause restricting federal officials like Trump from participating in crypto businesses.
But don’t take it as fact yet: so far, it’s only insider industry reports, with no official text released.
Republicans have already labeled it a "slogan bill."
I think this round isn’t about the details, but about "who calls the shots"—the regulatory balance is swinging back from the CFTC to the SEC; just watch, don’t chase.
Invalidation point: If the new Congress presents an official text and starts committee review at the beginning of January next year, or if bipartisan substantive negotiations begin, my "announcement before implementation" judgment will be void.
Do you think the new Congress’s first move will target exchanges or officials holding crypto?
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Starting from 12:00 on November 5, B will gradually open partial asset withdrawals on the $ETH, $BSC, $BASE, $TRX, $MATIC, and $SUI networks.
Why release in phases instead of all at once?
It is a deliberate measure to mitigate the impact of a bank run, as the platform's risk management enters its final stage.
Here, we need to distinguish two layers of capital logic:
One part of users withdrawing coins to self-custody is a normal transfer after trust repair;
The other part of the withdrawn chips will directly become potential selling pressure.
Personal judgment:
In the short term, on-chain liquidity will rise, and the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, so do not treat this as purely positive news.
The peak of custody anxiety has passed, but emotional aftershocks remain.
Going forward, focus on monitoring large on-chain withdrawals and the strength of $BNB linkage.
The market will not move unilaterally just because withdrawals resume; the pace will still be slow.
Sharing this thought process with those following along: prioritize risk control and avoid emotional speculation.STX just experienced a volume surge with a one-hour price drop, followed by an even larger trading volume in the next hour, and the price pulled back again. OKEx spot trading from 10 to 11 o'clock was about $515,000, 5.5 times that of the previous hour, closing down 2.19% at $0.3524. By 11:30, the price had returned to $0.3618, and the still-unclosed hourly candle at 11 o'clock had a trading volume exceeding $1.08 million.
This round of pullback is quite noticeable; for now, I do not classify it as new leveraged chasing. OKEx contract open interest nominal value was about $2.94 million at 10 o'clock and about $2.91 million at 11 o'clock, with a funding rate around -0.012%. Trading volume expanded while open interest slightly decreased, so at least open interest data cannot prove that long positions are accelerating; whether longs or shorts were closed cannot be determined from this data either.
High volume does not necessarily mean the buy side can hold the price. I am more focused on whether the next complete hourly candle can stand above $0.3657, the 24-hour high, while open interest increases. If it falls back below $0.3524, the current pullback lacks evidence of continuation.
$STX Fractal's first halving destroyed 4,275,161 FB tokens.
About 2.196 million came from the remaining early rewards of Index Mining, 579,000 from public test rewards, and 1.5 million from the second-year ecosystem treasury; all records can be verified on-chain.
Seeing token burns, retail investors often expect the price to rise. However, FB is currently around $0.31, down about 9% in 24 hours, 15.5% in 7 days, and 22.4% in 30 days. Meanwhile, BTC is rebounding, indicating weak buying pressure for FB itself.
This burn did not involve buybacks on the secondary market; it mainly dealt with undistributed allocations. It reduced future supply but did not bring in new buying funds.
The burn amount accounts for about 2% of the maximum supply. After the halving, 25 FB will still be generated every 30 seconds, about 72,000 per day, roughly 26.28 million per year, approximately six times the amount burned this time.
Official data shows about 109.6 million FB are currently circulating, with 45.7% still not in circulation. Index Mining has about 12.6 million FB staked, locking part of the circulating supply; staking rewards will also create new selling pressure.
The direction of this burn is correct; supply pressure has indeed decreased somewhat. For the price to rise, it depends on whether Fractal can bring more users, transactions, and capital to absorb the daily newly minted FB.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC 80720 $ETH 2431 $ZEC 1318 All three RSI indicators are maxed out, I entered short positions first in this wave
BTC's RSI at 78.8 is indeed hot, ETH at 77.3 is also rallying, but ZEC's 58.4 is nowhere near maxed out, so the headline saying all three are maxed is a bit exaggerated. I entered a short on BTC around 80700, with a stop loss above 81500; the upper Bollinger band at 81648 is the last line of defense. I also took a short on ETH at 2431, but with a lighter position than BTC. The funding rates are only 0.01% and 0.0049%, indicating that long leverage hasn't gone crazy yet. With such mild funding rates and overbought conditions, the pullback is likely to be shallow, don't expect a waterfall drop. The 24h gains of 5.92% and 8.35% are sharp rallies, so profit-taking will definitely happen, but the MA25 at 79338 and 2370 is still holding firmly, so the trend is intact.
In terms of operation, my short positions are only for the short term, targeting BTC to exit between 79500 and 80000, and ETH around 2380. I won't short ZEC; despite a 12% gain, its RSI is only 58, indicating it has climbed slowly from a low level, not an emotional top. The high at 1352 is resistance but not yet a time to short. What really needs caution is if BTC stabilizes above 81200, I will admit my short position was wrong and exit immediately, no holding on. My judgment for this wave is a rise followed by a limited pullback, don't mistake the pullback for a reversal, control your position size, and don't get carried away. Publicly listed companies' Bitcoin treasuries are starting to turn into sell orders.
After a three-month dormancy, Trump Media transferred 4,260 BTC to Crypto.com, worth about $343.67 million, publicly stating it was for sale. This is not a one-off operation—since 2026, it has cumulatively transferred 9,540 BTC, worth about $713.68 million.
Breaking it down: no movement for three months, then a move of over four thousand coins, nearly 45% of the annual transfer volume. This pace doesn’t look like portfolio rebalancing, but more like batch selling. When exchange addresses receive coins, the next step is usually placing sell orders, which directly press on the order book.
The second layer is the change in identity. Over the past two years, a major buying force for $BTC came from publicly listed companies converting cash into coins, telling a story of corporate balance sheet allocation. Now the same entities are reversing operations; buyers become sellers, and the story’s direction changes.
The impact shouldn’t be exaggerated, but it can’t be ignored either. 4,260 coins is not a huge amount at the current scale; risk assets like $ETH and $SOL will fluctuate more noticeably with sentiment. What really needs watching is what happens next: whether transfers continue after dormancy ends, and whether the market has enough spot liquidity to absorb this batch.
A question worth considering: if corporate treasuries shift from only buying to selling when cash is needed, then among $BTC holders, there will be a group of sellers who don’t watch the price but only care about cash flow. The fear index surged from 34 to 50 in one day, while BTC still holds around 80,600 — has the market already treated the "pre-nonfarm" as a bull market rehearsal?
The market thinks: election results + oil price crash = risk appetite returns, so you can hold through nonfarm with eyes closed.
In reality: fear has only returned to neutral, not greed; spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 1.16 billion in the first three days, this move looks more like short covering pushing prices up. Nonfarm at 21:30 Beijing time tomorrow is the real switch for December rate expectations.
My view: holding above 80,000 ≠ capital acceptance complete. Watch two key levels — if nonfarm is much stronger than expected and rate hike probability rises again, be cautious if BTC breaks below about 78,000 as the short squeeze rebound may end; if data is soft and ETFs start to flow in, only above about 82,000 can continuation be discussed. ETH is even stronger today (about +8.7% vs BTC about +6%), don’t mistake a follow-up rally for full bull confirmation.
Three takeaways:
1) Fear at 50 = neutral, not a green light dominated by bulls
2) Price pushed up by short covering, real buying only counts when ETFs start flowing in
3) Key level: hold about 78,000 to see continuation, if lost, reduce leverage first
Are you waiting for nonfarm before making a move, or have you already taken 80,000 as the bottom?
$BTC $ETH
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ ☀️ November 5 Cryptocurrency Morning Report｜BTC Returns to 80,000, Are the Bears Starting to Struggle?
Last night, the market finally saw a decent rebound. BTC surged strongly from the previous low near 75,600 USD, breaking through 80,000 USD at one point, with ETH strengthening in sync. Uncertainty around the US midterm elections is gradually fading, US stocks are rising, boosting risk assets, combined with concentrated short covering, driving this rebound. However, the earlier issues of ETF fund outflows and lack of market confidence have not been fully resolved.
Today, the focus is on whether BTC can hold above 80,000 USD. If it stabilizes, there is a short-term chance to test 82,000; if it falls back below 78,000, caution is needed as this rise might just be a short squeeze rebound. For ETH, watch the 2,300 USD support, while altcoins like SOL depend on whether funds continue to flow in.
Personally, I won’t turn bullish just because of one big green candle. What really matters is not how strong the rebound is, but whether there is capital willing to keep buying after the pullback. The market has been volatile these past two days, chasing highs and selling lows can easily lead to losses on both ends. Let’s watch the battle for 80,000 first, then decide the next direction.
$BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Don't be fooled by this bullish candle; this rally is driven by shorts "self-destructing," not new money entering the market.
$BTC (80,727): Short liquidations reached $533 million in 24 hours, but open interest actually shrank by 4.36%. ETFs have seen a net outflow of $859 million over the past 6 days, and IBIT has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days. The rebound pushed up by short covering is just a paper tiger without incremental follow-up.
$ETH (2,434): 1.23 million ETH are queued for staking, with almost zero withdrawals, which looks solid. However, ETFs have seen over $1.2 billion outflow in a single month, and staking yields have dropped to 2.2% — the locked tokens represent existing faith, not incremental buying chasing highs.
$SOL (96.77): Spot ETFs recorded a record weekly outflow of $71.47 million, whales dumped 1.49 million SOL to exchanges within 10 days, and hackers continue converting SOL to BTC to escape. No matter how lively the on-chain activity is, it can't withstand selling pressure coming from all directions.
Summary: The fireworks from short covering are over. Next, we need to see if stablecoin supply can stop falling and if ETFs can turn to net inflows. Do you think this rally is the start of a reversal or just a "one-day tour" of short covering? Show your positions in the comments!
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #توقعات Sony Earnings Report: How Did the Gaming and Music Sectors Perform? Sony will release its financial report for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 (July-September) on November 5. Based on the data disclosed in Q1 and the annual guidance, the key point in the gaming and music sectors is not "who grows faster," but the difference in earnings quality: gaming is experiencing revenue contraction with earnings resilience, while music achieves steady revenue growth with pressure on profit margins.$NEAR
NEAR's governance has backed a proposal to gradually reduce its maximum annual token issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years. This is more than a supply headline; it reflects a changing economic model as the network matures. Implementation and long-term ecosystem growth will be worth watching.
#NEAR #Tokenomics #CryptoAccording to normal logic, after the election results were announced yesterday, the sentiment should have been bearish because the market was worried that the progress of the CLARITY Act would be hindered, and the clarification of regulations for the US crypto industry might be further delayed.
But $BTC first dropped to around $75,600, then rebounded all the way back.
I think there are three reasons:
First, the market had already anticipated this in advance.
Before the election, the market was already guarding against the impact of a Democratic victory, and after the results were announced, no worse-than-expected news appeared.
Second, uncertainty disappeared.
Sometimes the market fears not a bad result, but not knowing what the result will be. After the election ended, funds began to readjust their positions.
Third, the US stock market rebounded simultaneously, coupled with some short covering, further driving BTC's recovery.
The short-term rebound does not mean that the bearish factors hanging over the market have disappeared, and it should not be interpreted as a reversal. Around $80,000, I’m more concerned about the position Bitcoin holds after the rebound. The story starts from the election night low: the Democrats swept Congress, shorts were squeezed, Bitcoin recovered, alongside rising stock markets and falling oil prices. Those who originally bet on the downside became passive players in this story.
From my reading, this looks more like a rebound caused by position adjustments rather than a confirmed trend. Short covering can push prices up, but it doesn’t mean the market is willing to continuously take over the positions. The implication here is: the opponent giving up and new supporters entering are not the same thing.
My speculation is that if subsequent buying can absorb the short covering demand, then the area around $80,000 will have more meaningful support. What do you all think? Will the story end with the heat fading after the short squeeze, or will new buyers take over?Two Things Compound Interest Fears Most
Munger long ago pointed out the core difficulty of the compound interest law lies not in the rate of return, but in the two key factors: losses and the length of time.
1️⃣ Avoid wiping out midway.
Many people just save up 200,000 as startup capital, only to have it completely consumed by various unexpected expenses, vanity spending, or distractions like buying a house, a car, or family responsibilities, wiping out all previous accumulation and essentially forcing a restart.
At an annualized 20% return, compounding continuously for 50 years can multiply your money 9,100 times. But if you break it into 5 segments restarting every 10 years, the total 50-year return is only 6 times, completely losing the advantage of compounding.
2️⃣ Avoid too short a track.
At an annualized 20% return, persisting for 35 years only multiplies your money 500 times, turning 10,000 into 5.9 million; but if you hold from year 35 to year 50, the total return jumps directly to 9,100 times, with the last 15 years’ gains nearly 20 times higher than the previous 35 years. If you can persist for 80 years, the return can reach an astonishing 2 million times.
To truly leverage the power of compound interest, start accumulating as early as possible. Whether starting a business or working, try to choose tracks with long-term growth potential, avoid ineffective compounding work without growth curves, and maintain health to extend your growth cycle, so the snowball can keep rolling bigger and bigger. At 01:45 AM, the 15-minute candle for $TRUMP hit a low of 1.214; now it's at 1.269.
Starting from 17:00 on 11-04, it gradually declined, still at 1.504 at 16:30; at 01:45 on 11-05, the 15-minute candle bottomed at 1.214, down 15.5% from 1.437 an hour earlier, with a single candle volume of 21.39 million USD.
Three numbers:
1. The wick only recovered half. Low point 1.214 → now 1.269, a 4.5% rebound, but still 11.7% below the pre-drop 1.437. After shaking out longs, there is no buying pressure.
2. Funding rates have turned negative for three consecutive periods: -0.0152%, -0.0207%, -0.0193%. Negative means shorts pay longs; shorts are clustered holding positions at 1.25.
3. Open interest dropped from 19.16 million USD at 01:00 to 16.24 million at 08:00, a 15.3% decrease. The crash is accompanied by deleveraging, not new money entering.
Perpetual 24h volume is 323 million vs spot 42.7 million; top 20 buy orders 14.68 million vs spot 376,000.
The background is a Democratic sweep, with Trump-related assets collectively hammered. This token has an FDV of 1.268 billion, market cap 358 million, with only 28% circulating.
Are you looking to bottom-fish or short? Will the next 1.21 level get pierced again?At the daily level, there is currently resistance at the 4200 daily level. Previously, the market fluctuated within this blue box for a long time. The upper boundary of this consolidation range is around 4200, which is a dense trading area. The price is now approaching this level. Once it touches 4200, there are many trapped positions above, plus panic selling from the previous breakdown here. 4200 is currently the toughest resistance for the bulls. If it can break through and hold above with volume, the daily-level reversal can be considered truly established. If it fails to break through, it will most likely continue to consolidate at the bottom.
Why can the daily level stop falling and rebound? Because of macroeconomic factors. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, coupled with a strong dollar. But now, with the midterm elections resulting in the Democrats taking control of Congress, gold has gotten a chance to catch its breath.
In terms of trading, a suggestion was given yesterday to buy at 4010. Those holding long positions should take partial profits near 4200 to guard against a sharp pullback after a spike. Wait for a pullback confirmation before looking for another opportunity. Only a true breakthrough and hold above 4200 will open the chance to target higher levels.
$XAU $XAUT $BTC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 On election night, the market cast a vote first.
Nasdaq 100 futures once fell 2.4%, but on 11/4 close, Nasdaq 100 was +0.91%, Dow Jones +3.03%.
From Buffett's 1969 partner letter: "I have always felt that assessing 'weight' determined by fundamentals is easier than assessing 'votes' determined by psychology."
The question is: which new policy will change a company's pricing power, regulation, or tax burden?
Analyzed according to Buffett's framework, this does not constitute investment advice$HYPE
Three consecutive pieces of news about HYPE this morning, all negative. The ETF had a single-day net outflow of $2,378,700, addresses related to a16z moved out a total of 233,000 tokens, and the Greeks said the midterm elections added uncertainty to its federal compliance path.
According to the usual script, these three combined would be enough to drop it by ten points. In reality, from the high of 88.99 it only lost 5 points, currently priced at 84.32, and it has risen 2.5% in 24 hours.
The fee rate explains the situation best. 0.00067%, more than an order of magnitude lower than the benchmark. Bulls are hardly paying anything, indicating leverage hasn't increased; this rise and fall is driven by spot trading.
The ETF's $2.37 million spread over OKX spot trading volume of $43.4 million in one day accounts for just over five points. The 233,000 tokens moved by a16z amount to $19 million, with profits only about $1.1 million, cost line estimated around 79, not a panic sell.
Open interest is $1.17 billion, barely moved in a day. Spot volume is 507,000 tokens per day versus perpetual contracts at 4.04 million tokens, an 8x ratio, which is relatively low leverage for this hot trend.
Bad news but no drop usually means two things: it hasn't reached the market yet, or it doesn't really matter. I lean toward the latter, but with a caveat—only when the fee rate returns to 0.01% will it indicate someone is truly betting real money on one side.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A wave of violent rebound has awakened a whale who had been dormant for 1 year to start selling coins.
An account that hadn't moved for a year suddenly showed activity 10 hours ago, first redeeming tokens from $AAVE, then selling $ETH and stETH worth 6.357 million USD on-chain, at an average price of $2428.
Just as the rebound started, they ran—Is this whale a bit anxious? $BTC
4259 coins, $344 million. Trump's media moved this batch of BTC to Crypto.com, an event at 11 o'clock.
My first reaction was to check the market reversal, to see if it was dumped out of a pit. It wasn't. Current price 80676, still up 5.7% in 24 hours, opened at 76312. After the spike to 81199.9 at 23 o'clock, it has been grinding between 79903 and 80941 for twelve hours, with volume dropping from 3 million contracts to between a hundred thousand and five hundred thousand contracts.
4259 coins is not a small amount. OKX spot only traded 9696 coins in one day, this single transaction accounts for more than 40%. If it were to be sold off all at once, the spot market volume should increase first.
The fee rate is still 0.01%, just matching the benchmark. Perpetual contract discount is 3.4 basis points. Open interest is 33353 coins, $2.69 billion, with no large inflows or outflows since last night.
Moving coins to the exchange and actually placing sell orders are separated by a step. Addresses like treasury companies can be used for custody, collateral, market making, or other purposes.
My judgment: this is just an accounting entry now, not a sell-off. If something really happens, it will first be seen in spot volume. When the volume doubles one day and the fee rate jumps again, then it means someone is running.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ What is the most important thing to pay attention to in a public blockchain project?
Is it the launch date, or what it can actually do after going live?
ACO recently shared an explanation about the timing of launching a public blockchain.
The team stated that having the technology ready and choosing the right launch timing are two things that need to be considered simultaneously.
ACO hopes the public blockchain can be launched in coordination with ACO Chat and related applications, so users not only know there is a new chain but can gradually understand which practical scenarios it supports.
I think this approach is worth paying attention to.
Because for users, remembering a launch date is not difficult; what really matters is whether it can be used after launch, what can be experienced, and whether it can sustain development.
The launch is a milestone; the real construction is still ahead.
#ACO #ACOChain #ACOChat #Web3Has the big Bitcoin rally ended? It seems not yet, because the MACD below hasn't shown divergence, so try not to guess the top and short now. Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase after the rise, with a consolidation range of 81243-79792. The hourly W-bottom for Bitcoin has formed, and the consolidation area circled in red shows structural breakdown, which led to the subsequent rise to 81000. Don't pay attention to news; just focus on the chart, as the chart will give you the answers you want. The hourly downtrend ends once Bitcoin breaks above the consolidation area circled in red, and as long as Bitcoin stays above 79792 on the hourly chart, the previous bearish trend will reverse into a bullish trend. You should follow the upward move marked by the big red arrow and wait for a pullback to go long, rather than guessing the top and shorting because the price looks high. Since a new uptrend has started, trying to short at the top might leave you stuck halfway. For going long on Bitcoin, watch the support zone between 79792-78613, wait for bottom signals in this range before going long. Bitcoin's extreme pullback should not break below 78613; if it does, nothing serious happens. But if the pullback breaks below 78613, it will likely retrace significantly. I tried a small short position around midnight, but it didn't drop, triggered my stop loss, so I exited. Now we just wait for a pullback to go long. Bitcoin broke out with volume above 80856; aggressive traders can chase longs on the right side. The 80000 level broke down with volume but the rebound couldn't reclaim it, so chase shorts on the right side with proper stop loss. Bitcoin's hourly chart broke and held above 80856, looking up to 82000-82600; if it can't break 8085, then...$FIL FIL has been used as an ATM for a full six years, but the faucet has finally been shut off.
The genesis unlock is completely over, cutting daily new sell pressure by 75%.
It's like a leak that lasted six years suddenly being turned off by three-quarters.
On the market, shorts are still pressing down by muscle memory.
But there isn't that much cheap spot left in circulation.
Continuing to press down the price with the old tricks, once the held coins are dumped, I wonder what they'll use to replenish.
#FIL
$FIL
👇🔎 How to identify on-chain restrictions of tokens through a blockchain explorer?
Don't just rely on what the project team says; you can start with six steps:
1. Verify the correct token contract address;
2. Check transaction status and failure information;
3. Inspect restriction mechanisms in the public source code;
4. Verify administrators and key permissions;
5. Review historical transactions and permission changes;
6. Make a judgment based on comprehensive evidence.
Note: Discovering a pause function does not mean it is currently enabled; a failed transaction does not mean the asset has been frozen.
Next article: What are the differences between blacklists, whitelists, paused transfers, and transaction limit restrictions?
#ONEA #Web3 #区块链 🔎 How to identify on-chain restrictions of tokens through a blockchain explorer?
Don't just rely on what the project team says; you can start with six steps:
1. Verify the correct token contract address;
2. Check transaction status and failure information;
3. Inspect restriction mechanisms in the public source code;
4. Verify administrators and key permissions;
5. Review historical transactions and permission changes;
6. Make a judgment based on comprehensive evidence.
Note: Discovering a pause function does not mean it is currently enabled; a failed transaction does not mean the asset has been frozen.
Next article: What are the differences between blacklists, whitelists, paused transfers, and transaction limit restrictions?
#ONEA #Web3 #区块链 $XRP hackers dumped 233 million tokens, and with the unlocking selling pressure, XRP still surprisingly rose by 3.3%.
Inventory in exchanges has been consistently decreasing, and fees haven't spiked, indicating that all the spot whales are holding firm to absorb the chips, it's definitely not leveraged speculation.
After this biggest nuclear bomb drop, the price didn't fall, meaning the shorts are completely out of ammo; any bit of buying pressure can make it take off immediately.
#XRP
$XRP
👇On the surface, I was quietly not watching the market, yet my account was surprisingly smooth, making me a bit uneasy. Is it that the less I watch the K-line, the more the market is willing to give out rewards? I've been thinking about this contrast these past two days. A couple of days ago, the Democrats took both houses of Congress in the US midterm elections. I interpreted this as a blow to the Trump camp, combined with the already very low sentiment at the time, so I placed a small BTC long position as a test. Note, it was a test, not a heavy faith-based position. The position was small, stop loss was planned, purely to see if the sentiment would be triggered. The market behaved more obediently than expected; BTC did not continue to break down near the lows, as if someone was supporting it from below. The bears tried to push it down twice but failed to make a big splash. This feeling of a dip that doesn't fall further carries more information than a big bullish candle. My current judgment is that this is more like a probe before the start, not a continuation of an already heated rally. Sentiment is recovering from the freezing point, price first stops falling, then waits for the narrative to ferment; the rhythm usually isn't one step to the end. BTC stabilizing gives ETH and altcoins the courage to perform in turn; if BTC itself can't hold, the excitement in other sectors is mostly fake moves. The bullish logic is that policy expectations have given sentiment a reason to rebound, and the low not breaking indicates selling pressure is weakening. The risk is obvious: the excitement from the election results may have been priced in early, the actual policy implementation is still far off, and when sentiment recedes, the pullback will be quick. What I care more about is that the market is trading on expectation differences now, not certainty. So my rhythm is to test direction with a small position, not chase highs, and not mistake one smooth move for long-term ability. Looking at the trend phase, it is still in the startup stage.$SUI tens of millions unlocked and dumped, yet SUI at 0.9 barely made a splash.
Spot buy orders directly chewed through the massive sell pressure; big holders who just got unlocked chips immediately staked and locked them.
The market is very clear now: bears are losing money daily holding hard around 0.9, unable to push the price down. If the price moves slightly up from here, these bears will have to line up to cut losses and lift the bulls.
#SUI
$SUI
👇First, to pour some cold water, seeking to abolish the tax does not mean the tax has already been abolished. The cryptocurrency community is seeking to repeal a 0.2% tax in Illinois: the tax is based on asset value rather than gains, and applicable brokers must withhold it from state clients. When I see this news, my biggest fear is that the market will directly translate "someone opposes" into "regulatory easing" and prematurely count the benefit in full.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the tax base is more critical than the tax rate. 0.2% looks small, but if the asset generates no gains, taxing based on asset value can still be a burden; a decimal point cannot relieve users' pressure. Second, the withholding responsibility falls on applicable brokers. My guess is that if the tax remains, related institutions will have to consider the cost of collection enforcement and compliance. This is more like a cost issue between local users and brokers and cannot be directly magnified into a benefit for the entire crypto market.
Of course, opponents may also push for change, and I am not bearish just for the sake of being bearish. If the tax is indeed abolished later or the scope of application is clearly narrowed, I will acknowledge the related cost pressure is reduced and adjust my judgment. But for now, the material only says "seeking to abolish" without giving a successful result. I will first watch whether there is any substantial change in the rules and not take demands as implementation.What I'm focusing on isn't $100,000, but 20x leverage 👀. Core Trader 80 has newly opened a $ETH short position this time, about 41.25 tokens, with a reference price of $2424.1. This is quite interesting, but what I'm more concerned about is: how much room for reverse volatility does this short position leave?
My judgment is that getting the direction right isn't enough; 20x leverage tests the timing of entry even more. Roughly calculating, if the price rises 1% against the position, the loss would be about 20% of the initial margin, excluding fees, so this can't be used to determine the liquidation price. High volatility can amplify momentum opportunities but can also cause the position to fail before the judgment is realized.
I will observe whether there is any position reduction later and how the position changes when the price rebounds. I don't treat opening a short position as a bearish conclusion. Which sector have you all been paying attention to recently? Facing this kind of volatility, would you prioritize lowering leverage or reducing position size? #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
"Moderna Approaches Q3 Earnings Release"
Moderna is about to release its Q3 earnings before the U.S. market opens on November 6.
This biotech star posted a net loss of about $800 million last quarter, and the entire market is watching closely to see if this fall's vaccine uptake can stop the decline.
Beyond regular vaccine sales, everyone is also eager to see how long the cash on hand can last and whether there has been any substantial progress in the oncology treatment pipeline. $BTC $SNDK SanDisk took a really hard hit, dropping more than 10% within 24 hours, AXTI also fell over 10%, and the US semiconductor hardware stocks are all down today. $BTC $ETH
The core issue is that storage has been overhyped in this cycle. The earlier price increase story was too smooth, and now that marginal expectations have loosened, institutional profit-taking has collectively come out to cash in. Even Kioxia is signaling that the momentum for flash memory price increases is weakening, and consumers are starting to resist the high prices.
Additionally, with the midterm election results finalized and the Democrats taking control of both chambers, expectations for stricter tech regulation have immediately intensified, and semiconductor hardware with high valuations is the first to be hit. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权