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$BTC is reported at 80,540 USD, up 0.09% in 6 hours.
$ETH is reported at 2,422.84 USD, down 0.02% in 6 hours, up 7.08% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC intraday. The 6-hour high is 2,431.74, and the low is 2,406.3.
BTC resistance is seen around 80,800, with support at 80,200; ETH resistance at 2,432, support at 2,406.
This round of rebound is driven by a weaker dollar and progress in US-Iran negotiations boosting risk appetite, combined with short covering dominance: BTC single short positions closed about 370 million USD, while open interest contracts decreased by 4.36%, indicating the rally relies more on short stop-losses rather than new buying. Spot buying and ETF net inflows have weakened, so caution is needed for a pullback after the short covering momentum fades.
In terms of operations, the cost-effectiveness of chasing BTC/ETH short-term highs has declined; after the short covering momentum weakens, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to support before reassessing, paying attention to whether spot buying can continue;
The rebound depends on short covering rather than new money entering; the faster the rise, the more one should ask: who will take the next baton?
This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; operate with caution.
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 "51 people support crypto," the number I’m focusing on first. In the futures market, when rules change, everyone likes to count the support votes first, but having a supportive attitude and reaching an agreement on specific terms are never the same thing. According to this analyst, the number of supporters has slightly decreased compared to before the election, but a trend of bipartisan support is emerging.
I see it more as a broadening of the policy discussion base rather than a guarantee of accelerated legislation. Crypto is different from traditional commodity futures; the regulatory boundaries themselves are still being debated. Supporting the industry doesn’t mean there’s consensus on how to divide regulatory responsibilities. Here’s my judgment: if bipartisan support can be translated into specific terms, then for companies that need to invest in long-term compliance, that will be more meaningful than just a number label.
As an old futures market person, my habit is still to watch how the rules are implemented, not to rush to treat political attitudes as market signals. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? In this news, do you value the number of supporters more, or whether bipartisan agreement on specific rules can be reached?The latest liquidation data is out. Don't just focus on the total amount; breaking it down is more interesting.
4-hour liquidations total 12.29 million: shorts 9.18 million, longs 3.10 million; 12-hour liquidations total 93.65 million: shorts 64.24 million, longs 29.41 million. The answer is straightforward — this move from 76665 up to 78000 mainly liquidated shorts. Positions chasing shorts and topping out were continuously taken out during the rebound, releasing concentrated short pressure within half a day.
But if you extend the timeframe to 24 hours, the picture changes: total liquidations reach 175 million, longs 96.01 million, shorts 78.90 million, with longs slightly higher. The reason is simple: during the earlier drop from 78800 to 76665, bottom-fishing longs were cleared first.
Looking at it together, it's a combination punch: first smashing down to liquidate longs, then pulling up to liquidate shorts, sweeping both sides back and forth. The largest single liquidation was on Binance BTCUSDT, a single 8.78 million USD position, indicating that heavy holders were also taken out.
My view: this is not a simple one-sided market but a typical two-way harvest. Short-term traders shouldn't be led by rebound sentiment to chase; shorts have just been taught a lesson, and longs' wounds haven't healed yet. BTC, ETH, and ZEC are all the same; position management is more important than calling direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $ADA
There was an analysis this morning saying ADA broke all key moving averages and faced pressure after being rejected at 0.28. I checked the chart and was stunned — today it rose by 5.4%.
It opened at 0.1867 in 24 hours, the lowest was 0.1829, the highest 0.2018, and now it's 0.1967. The moving averages were broken, but that has nothing to do with today's candle.
What caught my attention was another number: 71% of contract accounts are holding long positions. The price is below the moving averages, but the positions are all on the long side. This combination is rare.
But on OKX, the open interest is only $26.04 million, and the fee rate is exactly 0.01%, with no premium at all. Many people, but no one is bidding up. They are not bullish; they just haven't left.
At 10 PM, there were 385,000 contracts in one hour, the previous hour had 46,000, eight times more. At 11 PM, 620,000 contracts touched 0.2016, then gradually shrank to 50,000 contracts this morning, with the price ranging between 0.1943 and 0.2005, moving sideways all night.
The story is told, and so is the volume. How long can 71% longs hold on? The answer will probably come when the US stock market opens tonight.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SOL
Down 19.7% in a month, quick news characterizes SOL as the one that fell the hardest among the mainstream after the Binance hack.
Today it rose 4.2%. Opened at 91.97, lowest at 89.88, touched 98.16, now at 95.8.
I didn’t chase it. At 23:00, there was a 1-hour volume of 2.51 million contracts, the previous one was 1.37 million, and before that 290,000. One candle went from 92.9 to 98.13, closing at 96.65.
Then the next ten candles combined had 2.8 million contracts, price hovered between 94.3 and 96.2 all night. Volume shrank to one-ninth, price didn’t go back. The ones supporting the rally left.
Fee rate is 0.0057%, not even half of the benchmark 0.01%. Perpetual can’t even hold the benchmark, bulls are unwilling to pay for this position. Open interest is $333 million, no new positions seen today.
So this 4% rebound, I see it as short covering. The first rebound after a 20% drop usually looks like this: fast, low volume, and no one adding positions.
I used to try to catch this kind of rebound, but it basically always hits halfway up the mountain. Wait for volume to come back before making a move.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Beijing time 9:30 PM on November 6, the US October nonfarm payroll data will be released, which is definitely the moment that will decide the fate of the market in the coming weeks. Let's first look at how solid the current macro fundamentals are. The US manufacturing data for October actually exceeded expectations, but the price index inside remains stubbornly high, coupled with the previously risen 3.1% core inflation, what does this indicate? It means the US economy is not only not in recession but quite hot, yet this inflation just won't come down. The market's expectation for the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December has already surged to 70%. For this nonfarm payroll, the general expectation is an increase of 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate still at 4.2%. Xiao Ma's personal view is straightforward: the current market logic has completely reversed, don't look at the data with old perspectives. Previously, people thought "good employment data equals good economy, which is positive for the crypto space," but now it's completely different! If tonight's nonfarm data is particularly strong, it will be the perfect excuse for the Fed to continue raising rates in December, and big money will immediately flee from risk assets. Conversely, if the data disappoints, funds will panic about whether the US economy is heading for a hard landing. So, as the community elder said, the nonfarm data itself is a big risk; you can't just focus on new jobs added, wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data—every detail can trigger a big shock. The current market, with Bitcoin slightly up, is basically holding its breath waiting for the results. What impact will it have? In the short term, definitely November 5｜What market trends should we closely watch next? There are several signals in the market worth focusing on right now. First, keep an eye on U.S. employment data. October's ADP job additions were 86,000, exceeding market expectations. Next, watch the official non-farm payrolls released on November 6, focusing on new jobs added, unemployment rate, and wage growth. The stronger the employment, the more the market's expectations for rate cuts are likely to be suppressed. Second, closely monitor ETF capital flows. For the short-term trends of BTC and ETH, don't just look at price rebounds; also check if spot ETFs have continuous net inflows. If prices rise but funds don't follow, the sustainability of the rally is questionable. Third, pay attention to BTC sales by mining companies. Miners like Riot are selling some BTC to fund data center expansion and debt repayment. This doesn't necessarily indicate panic selling but will increase market supply. Watch if other miners follow suit. Fourth, watch the U.S. dollar, gold, and geopolitical situation. Gold's strength reflects risk aversion and changes in macro expectations but doesn't necessarily mean BTC will rise. The dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical factors will still influence market risk appetite. Fifth, note the implementation of Hong Kong's crypto asset tax reporting framework. This represents further improvement in industry compliance and information reporting requirements. Its long-term impact is worth attention but should not be simply interpreted as short-term capital benefits. My judgment: The most important thing now is not to rush to guess the direction but to observe whether ETF funds can continue to flow back after macro data is released and whether the market can absorb the supply pressure brought by mining companies $BTC pulled back from 75,700 to above 80,000 overnight. Half the group is shouting "bottom confirmed," while the other half says "short covering, won't go far." I didn't rush to take sides; I first had AI do something: list the reasons from both sides in separate tables, and after each reason, it must state "which data appears, this reason doesn't hold."
The results were quite interesting. The bulls' strongest reason is the election landing and uncertainty disappearing; the bears' strongest is that this rally mainly relied on short liquidations. According to CoinGlass data, about $530 million in shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, and the total open interest actually dropped by more than 4%, indicating little new money came in.
I personally verified the "falsification conditions" in the tables one by one: the BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX is now about 0.0077%, not overheated; the bears' key level is around 75,800, and until the daily candle closes below that, this concern remains just a hypothesis.
The value of AI here is not to tell me whether it will rise or fall, but to force me to break down "what I think" into "which numbers I need to watch." My own judgment: this rebound is mediocre; in the next few days, watch if the open interest can rise along with the price. If it doesn't, don't rush to chase.
When you see a bull-bear divergence, which indicator do you watch first? As soon as I saw "Exchange outflow of 2,501 BTC," the group started shouting bull market.
I did the math: Binance wallet still holds 666,900 BTC, and this outflow accounts for 0.37%. Really, it's not even a fraction.
$250 million sounds scary, but in the BTC market, it's just someone moving house. Moving house doesn't mean selling the house.
So whether it's bullish or bearish, I can't say. I'm just a bit curious: those shouting the loudest, did they even calculate this proportion?$ETH
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Tonight's small nonfarm payrolls are interesting
New jobs added: 86,000
17,000 more than expected
But the same as the revised data from last month
Is the job market really that strong
Or were people just too pessimistic before?
September originally reported 90,000 new jobs
Now revised down to 86,000
So although October exceeded market expectations
Job growth hasn't actually accelerated
This is different from what many people think
On the surface, employment exceeded expectations
But in reality, it's just not as bad as the market feared
However, for Bitcoin bulls
This might not necessarily be good news
After all, everyone has been hoping for a rate cut in December
The more resilient the employment data
The less reason the Fed has to rush to ease policy
Previously, the market worried about economic weakness
Thinking a rate cut might be coming soon
Now with employment better than expected
The rate cut plan needs to be reconsidered
But adding 86,000 jobs
Is not exactly a sudden takeoff in the job market
It's obviously too early to conclude no rate cut in December
Based on just one small nonfarm report
Dropped from 79 to 1.48, not a 98% drop
$TRUMP is now at 1.48, just 8% away from the historical low of 1.3.
What do these numbers mean: 79 was the highest price at launch. 1.48 is today's price. There were no dividends or additional issuances in between, only buying and selling.
What does it actually do: This coin has no application, no incoming funds; the only support it has is from Trump himself. Losing the election loosened that support.
Common misunderstanding: The 98% drop did not happen in one day. It dropped a little every day over more than half a year. Today's 5.89% drop is just one day.
The 1.3 low point was hammered out in August. There is still an 8% margin before reaching it now.
If it really breaks below 1.3, there is no historical price reference below that.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $TRUMP 📊 $BTC current price $80,699, WAIT
I hold a long position in $BTC (average price $83,030), no adding to position, waiting for confirmation
The cap above is the downtrend line at $81,159, dropping daily below $82
The $80,816 level has surged 15 times, pulled back 10 times, broken through 4 times (3 of which fell back), and 1 time with no reaction. In the past 9.8 hours, shorts liquidated $38.49 million, with about $18.5 million around this area
A) 4H close stabilizes above $81,950 → target $82,892; if it falls back below $80,400, it’s invalid
B) 1H close breaks below $80,400 → first target $79,742; if it rises above $81,950, it’s invalid
24h +4.86%, open interest up 3.7%, new money is going long. November 4 US nonfarm payroll data just passed, historical performance at this level may be unreliable
If it rebounds to $81,950, I will reduce half my position first and move stop loss to breakeven
Do you think this wave is a short squeeze or a real breakout? #Вероятность повышения ставок в США в декабре снизилась до 73%, сообщество активно обсуждает дальнейший путь $BTC
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Tonight's small non-farm payrolls are quite interesting
New jobs added: 86,000
17,000 more than expected
But the same as the revised data from last month
Is the job market really that strong
Or was everyone too pessimistic before?
September originally reported 90,000 new jobs
Now revised down to 86,000
Meaning
Although October exceeded market expectations
Job growth did not continue to accelerate
This is different from what many people understand
On the surface, employment exceeded expectations
In reality, it’s just not as bad as the market feared
But for Bitcoin bulls
This may not necessarily be good news
After all, everyone has been hoping for a rate cut in December
The more resilient the employment data
The less reason the Fed has to rush to ease policy
Previously, the market worried about economic weakness
Thinking a rate cut might come soon
Now with better-than-expected employment performance
The rate cut plan needs to be reconsidered
However, 86,000 new jobs
Can’t be considered a sudden takeoff in the job market
Relying on just one small non-farm payroll report
To conclude no rate cut in December
Is obviously too early In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.004 billion, with 135,000 people wiped out. Shorts liquidated $571 million, longs $434 million, with shorts liquidating $137 million more, completely opposite to the previous "longs massacre."
BTC liquidated $408 million, with shorts accounting for 75.6%, about $300 million of shorts liquidated; ETH liquidated $248 million, also dominated by shorts. BTC and ETH have become the main battleground for short squeezes.
Within 12 hours, $621 million liquidated, shorts $425 million, corresponding to a short squeeze after the election results landed; in the last 4 hours, longs vs shorts are 17.17 million vs 14.83 million, turning into a tug of war. The largest single liquidation was ETH on HTX, $37.99 million, a large short forcibly liquidated.
This is a typical short squeeze: election results → bad news fully priced in → shorts panic close positions → price surges. But the $1 billion liquidation is mainly passive short liquidations, not new longs entering. Short squeeze rises fast and falls fast; if no buying follows after shorts clear, a pullback can happen anytime. 130,000 people liquidated indicates crowded leverage. Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow night, don’t chase highs.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The founder of a certain exchange admitted that the security team is severely understaffed, and suspicious transfers have appeared again, which is not a positive sentiment for $BTC.
But the market situation is more worth watching: in the last 8.5 hours, short positions liquidated $38.49 million, with $18.5 million near $80,816.
The $80,816 level has surged 15 times, pulled back 10 times, broken through 4 times (3 of which fell back), and once had no reaction. The current price is still below it, so I won't chase longs and will wait for a stable break.
The US non-farm payroll data was just released on November 4, and the market may not follow the old patterns. Do you think this is a real breakout after shorts were swept out, or a fake breakout? #Вероятность повышения ставок в США в декабре снизилась до 73%, сообщество активно обсуждает дальнейший путь $BTC surged to around 81,000 this morning but then slowed down. Looking at the 5-minute chart, there is a bearish order block above 80,000. This is the starting point of a 5-minute downward CHoCH. The price rebounded but repeatedly retested 3 candles without breaking through, which is a bit unexpected. Sellers' orders in this range are still suppressing the price.
Just now, the 15-minute candle pierced the previous low, sweeping liquidity below. Although that candle closed back up, the subsequent rebound was weak. The 1-hour trading volume shrank by more than half. Fewer active takers are following in the market, and the price has stalled.
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 maintain a bearish alignment. The price just hit a key daily resistance level. Several highs from 4 hours ago overlap here. The larger timeframe trend is bearish, and bulls are struggling to push higher.
I lean bearish. The daily heavy resistance lies above, and the short-term is blocked by the order block. There isn’t enough buying volume to absorb the selling pressure, so a pullback is highly likely next.
$ETH $SOL #CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 Last night, the short positions clustered above 78000 were swept away in one wave at dawn — $320 million worth of shorts liquidated in 30 minutes, BTC surged directly to 81000. This is the backlash of negative funding rates.
Thursday morning review. First, the judgment: this was a textbook short squeeze. Wait for a pullback: see if the 80000 round number and the old double bottom at 80774 can become support; consider long positions again after a volume-reduced stabilization on the pullback; if it directly surges to 81200 but fails to break the previous high, be cautious of a retracement after the squeeze.
Data snapshot: BTC at 80396, up 4.34% in 24 hours, high and low points at 81193 and 75700, funding rate back to 0.0001, open interest dropped from 661 million contracts to 573 million, down by 87 million contracts, volume at 10.59 billion; ETH at 2414, up 6.55%. Last night, funding rates turned negative and open interest surged, indicating shorts were crowded at the 78000 level; once 78700 broke, short stop-loss orders directly fueled the rally, forcing more shorts to cover as the price rose. But the large drop in open interest shows this rally was driven by liquidations, not new long entries; after the squeeze, consolidation is usually needed.
News: The midterm election results are settled, uncertainty fades, driving a broad rebound; ETH up 6%, SOL and XRP each up 4%. However, spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, so this rebound currently lacks confirmation from the capital side.
Tonight, watch the US stock market open and the outcome around the 81200 previous high.
The most profitable in a squeeze are those who positioned early; the most likely to lose are those who jump in after the rally.
$BTC $ETH BTC directly staged a violent V-shaped rebound! It surged from 75,700 all the way up to 81,199, a single-day rebound of over 7%. However, after hitting the high, it immediately dropped back down, shaking out both bulls and bears in this wave.
Here’s why it suddenly surged so sharply:
1. The election results were finalized, the lingering uncertainty was resolved, and the previous panic eased, allowing funds to return to bet on an oversold rebound.
2. Large option orders clustered together, with 660 million nominal value in options, 420 million of which were calls, indicating big money betting on a rebound.
3. A large number of short positions had accumulated earlier; when the price rose, shorts were forced to cover, and a chain of liquidations pushed the market up directly.
So why did it fail to hold at 81,199 and then fall back?
There was too much selling pressure above, with trapped positions and short-term profit takers rushing to exit, and the bulls lacked follow-through strength.
My view: This rebound is essentially driven by emotional repair and short squeeze, with no sustained inflow of new spot funds yet.
The approach is simple: don’t chase longs, and don’t rush to short either; wait for the rebound to meet resistance before looking for shorting opportunities.
The only signal to adjust this view: if volume increases and the price stabilizes above 81,200 later, then this bearish outlook needs to be reconsidered. To pour some cold water first, the disbanding of the anti-crime alliance does not mean that the money on the chain is "free." When I saw this news, I was more concerned about transparency: a cooperative mechanism that can produce enforcement results but did not explain the reason for its exit is not something to celebrate outright. My judgment is that the information gap leans negative but is not enough to infer a bearish outlook for the entire industry.
According to Bloomberg, the T3 Financial Crime Fighting Alliance, jointly established in September 2024 by the organization behind the Tron blockchain, Tether, and TRM Labs, has quietly disbanded, with specific reasons yet to be disclosed. The alliance had previously frozen $250 million in illicit assets. I do not agree with interpreting this as a "loosening of risk control" for two reasons: the alliance is a form of cooperation, and its disbandment itself does not prove that the members' individual tracking and freezing capabilities have disappeared; and the existing freezing results show that this collaboration was not a sham. If there is a gap in cooperation as a result, I speculate that the pressure is on the compliance trust of the related institutions, not that ordinary users have suddenly gained convenience.
Of course, it may also be correct to understand this as an organizational adjustment. If we later see that the original responsibilities are clearly taken over and cooperation continues to operate, I will retract my somewhat negative judgment. Don't rush to get excited, nor rush to imagine a regulatory shift. I will focus on one thing next: with the cooperative banner withdrawn, has the actual capability also withdrawn?"Frozen $250 million in illegal assets," this number caught my eye immediately: having achieved such results, how could it still disband? According to Bloomberg, the T3 Financial Crime Fighting Alliance, jointly initiated by the organization behind Tron, Tether, and TRM Labs, has quietly dissolved, with the specific reasons not yet disclosed. I've only been in the circle for a year, so seeing this part really left me a bit confused 🤔
But after thinking for a while, I feel that for ordinary users, the frozen amount alone is not enough to serve as a basis for a sense of security. This is not to deny the value of anti-crime work, but "money temporarily immobilized" and "victims being able to recover it" cannot be directly equated.
What I understand is that freezing can restrict the continued transfer of related assets, but how ownership is determined and how the assets are handled afterward are what really affect whether losses can be recovered. I’m not sure if this is correct. If you only look at the cumulative frozen amount, it’s easy to mistake interception results for recovery results. This is my concern and does not mean there are already issues with handling these assets.
What I haven’t figured out yet is whether the subsequent handling of previously frozen assets will be affected after the alliance disbands; the material doesn’t provide an answer. I will keep this information gap in mind and, in the future, when I see anti-crime reports, I’ll take a closer look at where the assets behind the numbers are going.Being able to trade vs. being able to predict, I think these two should be considered separately. Bitquery's weekend tests found that stock token predictions for Monday's opening direction did not show a clear advantage; simply guessing an increase had an accuracy rate of 55%. Nasdaq's proposed plan to extend trading on weekdays also comes with conditions.
I value the convenience of trading more and am not in a hurry to label it as an "opening oracle": even the baseline of guessing an increase hasn't shown a clear advantage, so weekend prices alone are not a reliable basis for judging direction; extending trading hours does not equal improved predictive ability, especially since the plan has conditions. For ordinary users, I think the biggest reminder is: having more trading windows does not mean having more informational advantage.
If weekend price fluctuations are lively, I would first see if it can consistently outperform the guess-increase baseline. Which side of stock tokens do you value more: the convenience of weekend trading or the ability to predict Monday's opening?What the crypto community most wants to "get listed" might not be tokens on exchanges, but rather to have their demands included on the national legislative agenda. Previously, we focused on K-lines; now we also have to watch who goes to work 😂
According to Stand With Crypto statistics, in the U.S. midterm elections, 397 of the 435 House seats have been decided, with 226 crypto supporters elected and 106 opponents; for the Senate, 33 of the 35 contested seats have been decided, with 19 supporters and 8 opponents elected. I think this is good news for policy communication, but we are still far from rules being implemented, and headcounts cannot be equated with bill passage rates.
More supporters mean the industry's demands have a better chance of entering the agenda; but supporting crypto does not mean agreeing with every proposal, and specific clauses still require negotiation; Senate data only covers contested seats and cannot represent the entire chamber's composition. For ordinary users, I care more about whether the rules clearly define responsibilities. Are you cheering for "more people first" or "text finalized before applause"? In this market, do you vote by headcount or grade the work?This AI meal feels a bit strange: those actually selling shovels are getting hit, while those with "intelligent" in their name get served first.
TAO rose 5.08%, NEAR rose 5.25%; meanwhile, on OKX, Micron token xMU dropped 8.48%, SanDisk token xSNDK dropped 9.24%, and triple semiconductor xSOXL plunged 10.66%. The same AI story, but two kinds of workplace injuries.
The background is pretty cold too: the new governor of Texas advocates pausing data center construction, and the market worries about expansion limits. AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled, yet the stock price still fell. Earnings were delivered, but concerns didn’t take a day off.
But I don’t want to directly award AI coins the "comeback against the wind" prize. BTC rose 4.26% in the same period, ETH rose 6.37%, and the gains of TAO and NEAR at this level, if put on a report card, at best just keep up with the class average, not proving the market is voting specifically for AI.
On the chip side, they’re already calculating whether the computer rooms can be built; on the coin side, it seems they haven’t reached the accounting step yet. Both called AI, but the difficulty level of the homework is completely different 😂
Which side are you on: AI coins trading on independent AI expectations, or just riding the market rally? #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $TAO $NEAR #CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows by 49%
$CRCL current price is about $75, forward PE around 52–58 times, not cheap. The relatively undervalued observation range is $50–60, corresponding to a PE of about 35–40 times
However, the premise is that core reserve income no longer deteriorates and Arc progresses as scheduled. If it falls below $50, the market is pricing in a continued shrinkage of USDC circulation
For substantial benefits to stablecoins (such as GENIUS implementation, SEC zero capital discount recognition), if it drives USDC circulation to end year-on-year zero growth
Valuation has a probability to move toward the institutional consensus target price of $107.56, about a 43% increase from the current price, but there is significant divergence, with Citi at $243 and Morgan Stanley at $34
Looking back historically, the 52-week high was $140, about 86% higher than the current price, and earlier near $299 was a frenzy valuation with limited reference value 🤔
Currently, $50–60 belongs to the “undervalued” observation range, while $107 is the institutional consensus target price, and $140 is a historical emotional high
If USDC’s end-of-period circulation can return to double-digit growth, then Circle is expected to rise further 🤔 Pay attention to risks! Today is Thursday, November 5, 2026.
November has just begun, and the global macro game has already experienced an extremely intense "reshuffle." The U.S. midterm elections have just concluded, with the Democratic Party regaining control of Congress (establishing a divided government). Coupled with subtle changes in geopolitical negotiations, a very typical "political risk aversion and repricing logic" has evolved across asset classes.
Here's a brief overview of the underlying transmission mechanisms of these recent major events:
Midterm elections concluded: Why is there heavy selling pressure on U.S. stocks while gold and bond markets surge?
After the midterm elections settled, the market is rapidly shifting from "election uncertainty" to pricing in "policy friction and regulatory scrutiny":
U.S. stocks and tech stocks squeezed (sharp declines/rebalancing): After the Democrats took control of Congress, concerns about subsequent regulatory restrictions on big tech and AI sectors, data center approvals, and antitrust inquiries have risen sharply. Previously overvalued, high-capital-expenditure tech stocks and Trump-related concept stocks faced concentrated sell-offs.
Dollar index decline & U.S. Treasuries/gold rebound: The divided Congress makes it much harder to further explode fiscal deficits (massive stimulus/tax cuts), curbing inflation expansion expectations and causing the dollar index to fall. Risk-free yields have dropped from the previous 5.1%+ highs, prompting funds to flow into gold and bond markets for safety.
Operationally, patience is still required. Focus on observing the support strength of oil prices around $100 and whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can remain steadily below 5.0%, waiting for the market to provide a more solid right-side base 🔍 When I see "whale stop loss," I actually want to ask: is this admitting a mistake and exiting, or just cutting part of the risk? Don't rush to conclusions; closing a position and liquidating are two different things.
According to Ember monitoring, this whale closed $44.04 million worth of CL long positions in the past 10 minutes, losing $4.9 million; previously, the unrealized loss on the long crude oil position once reached $15.08 million. Currently, it still holds $94.79 million in BRENTOIL long positions, with an unrealized loss of $8.35 million.
An interesting detail here: I tend to see this as risk contraction rather than ironclad evidence of bearishness on crude oil. First, the long exposure remains; second, unrealized losses and realized losses should not be combined. This is my speculation: if the goal is to reduce risk while keeping directional bets, then whether it continues to reduce positions later is more valuable for judgment than how much it lost this time.
I will continue to monitor this address's BRENTOIL positions. What do you think the next step will be: continue reducing positions or hold steady? Let's watch the follow-up together and see whose speculation is closer.A $20 billion financing pot is placed on the table, and Oracle's cloud stove immediately emits a caramel-colored warning: the fire is blazing hot, but the bottom of the pot is starting to dry out. One billion dollars in stock, one billion dollars in bonds—half is fresh water poured into the broth, half is new credit extended to the kitchen; the aroma is there, but the soup's flavor has been diluted a bit.
Let's start with the appetizer. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% year-over-year, reaching about $7.4 billion. This isn't a slow simmer; it's a high-heat stir-fry, with the kitchen's heat hitting the ceiling. But the problem lies in the kitchen's procurement list: data center capital expenditures chase compute demand, with stoves, exhaust, and cold storage all ramped up. Procurement costs have actually surpassed operating cash flow, with quarterly free cash flow inverted by about $5.4 billion. In kitchen terms, the busier the banquet, the more the fridge and stove need to be bought on credit, but the cash register hasn't kept up with the turnover.
The spiciest part of this meal isn't the revenue but the ratio. Stock financing is like adding ice water to a rich soup, diluting the shareholders' fresh flavor; bond financing is like sprinkling hot chili peppers—invigorating now, but the aftertaste is rising interest costs. Cloud business is the main course, capital expenditure is the high heat, debt is the chili powder, and tokenized US stock platter is the dipping sauce on the side—the market first tastes growth, then chokes on cash flow and dilution. When the Nasdaq tokenized targets move together, it's about the emotional heat, not a single menu item; when Oracle's pot starts to smoke, the whole kitchen smells the mix of caramelized and spicy aromas.
What really needs attention is turnover rate and fresh water. Revenue growth is like the queue in the front hall; free cash flow is the kitchen's faucet; if the faucet can't produce water, the stove gets hotter but risks burning dry. Financing can keep procurement going, but interest and dilution will change the soup's base flavor. The main course can be rich, the seasoning fragrant, and the extra spicy chili can add soul, but once the pot's bottom burns, no matter how beautiful the plating, the bitterness can't be hidden. $20 billion isn't just sprinkling scallions; it's putting the kitchen's ledger and heat control on the table; revenue is reducing sauce over high heat, but cash flow is burning at the pot's edge. This meal isn't inedible, but the kitchen's fresh water is nearly choked by the extra spicy chili, the main course is still reducing sauce over high heat, and the bill has already been served. #oracle20bfinancing$HYPE The big short at position 72.8 is still stubbornly holding on, with unrealized losses on the books reaching 3.46 million dollars.
Shorting this kind of market that automatically sweeps nearly full fees daily at market price is really stubborn.
Now the circulating supply is being devoured by the protocol every day, and the shorts are completely holding firm.
Once this big player can't take it and is forced to liquidate, it will immediately become pure fuel for a push up. Shorting on the left side, the timing is all on the bulls' side.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇#US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress
Brothers, the results of the US midterm elections are out. The Democrats have directly taken both the House and the Senate. For the next two years, it definitely won't be as smooth for Trump to push policies as before.
For $BTC, the short term may not necessarily be positive. Many Democrats are not very friendly towards cryptocurrencies and loose regulations. Policies on stablecoins, trading platforms, and taxation may face renewed contention. What the market fears most is not opposition, but uncertainty.
But from another perspective, with the two parties pulling against each other, many radical policies may not be implemented quickly. As long as there isn't suddenly very strict regulation, Bitcoin will still be influenced by funding and macro factors.
For $ETH, the focus is more on policy details, especially discussions around staking, ETFs, and securities classification. When the news first breaks, the market might get scared, but what really affects the market is what bills Congress will eventually introduce.
My view is: in the short term, don't directly treat "Democrats winning both houses" as either negative or positive. First, see how the market digests it. For BTC, watch the support; for ETH, watch the capital flow. When US politics shifts, the crypto space reacts wildly. Brothers, don't rush to chase gains or cut losses tonight.Under the surgical light, the most dangerous thing is never the gushing blood, but a ventricular fibrillation wave on the monitor misread as "normal." Newcomers rushing into the crypto market often first ask "what to buy," like a patient demanding surgery immediately without undergoing ECG, coagulation, and infection screening. The value of beginner communities lies not in providing standard answers but in laying out the pitfalls others have encountered as medical histories: who had insufficient volume during anesthesia induction, who experienced uncontrolled coagulation cascade after extracorporeal circulation, who mistook transient reperfusion for complete myocardial recovery. But collecting medical history cannot replace imaging and lab tests; "my mistakes" shared in the community can only serve as clues during rounds, not as intraoperative navigation. Professional traders' answers are like senior doctors stepping in, able to correct incisions and layers but unable to bear all postoperative monitoring risks for the patient. What beginners should build most is not courage but a circulatory support system of preoperative assessment, risk stratification, position sizing, and stop-loss; treating leverage as a cardiotonic and rebounds as relapses is a typical misjudgment of symptom relief as lesion removal.
Looking at the linkage between the US stock token XSPCX and the crypto market, it’s like the systemic and pulmonary circulations connected by an abnormal shunt: interest rate sensitivity of traditional equities, tech stock earnings expectations, and dollar liquidity pressure flow through tokenization channels into crypto risk assets; leverage liquidations, stablecoin premium/discount, and thin 24-hour liquidity on the crypto side in turn contaminate token pricing. An extra waveform on the monitor does not mean the heart has grown an additional blood supply system. Tokenized stocks solve trading hours and settlement paths but do not resolve myocardial ischemia of the underlying asset; when cross-market correlation rises, the most dangerous mistake is misreading "synchronous rise" as sufficient collateral circulation and "synchronous fall" as mere sentiment. What really matters is hemodynamics: depth of market, bid-ask spread, oracle deviation, collateral haircut, liquidation thresholds, and blood pressure differences between traditional and off-hours trading. Any one falling to a critical value can trigger reperfusion injury like opening after aortic occlusion, not simply "returning to normal."
Beginners’ "no stupid questions" are good pre-anesthesia talks, but talks cannot replace informed consent and risk disclosure; no matter how often community guidelines update, they cannot replace individualized assessment. The linkage of XSPCX is just adding another pressure catheter on the same heart; the more lively the readings, the easier it is to mask the fact that the ventricular wall is thinning. #newherestarthere Getting drunk was supposed to be an impulsive liquidation, but it turned into a passive holding experiment. $BTC entry price 79432.1, current price 76609.8, unrealized loss 300.27U, ROI -355.29%. With 100x leverage, every candlestick feels like an amplified heartbeat. The margin ratio is still in the safe zone, so I can only tough it out and wait for recovery. $SOL is even worse: entry at 95.79, current price 91.37, unrealized loss 63.33U, ROI -92.28%. In a weak consolidation, I should have cut losses, but I drank too much last night and didn’t act, so the loss keeps hanging. The only surprise is $ETH, entry at 2243.35, current price 2253.65, unrealized profit 6.1U, ROI +9.18%. This was also a position I planned to close last night but forgot to do so, so it stayed open. Three same-direction buys, but the fate completely diverged: one deep loss, one heavy injury, one small gain, with vastly different holding experiences. What’s really worth pondering is not how much was lost, but the structural problem exposed by “forgetting to act.” High leverage leaves very little room for error; when the market shakes, psychological costs multiply. Alcohol only delayed the discipline that should have been executed by a few hours, but the price was paid by the account. The 100x position on $BTC shows this is not a directional judgment problem but a position management problem—under the same market conditions, a lighter position means last night’s forgetfulness only results in less profit or less loss; a heavier position turns forgetfulness into passive forced holding. The weak consolidation of $SOL further illustrates that delaying stop-loss in a trend is notThe main structure of a building is growing at a crazy year-on-year rate of 96%, but the newly signed construction contracts have only increased by 6%—this is not a completion inspection, it’s a serious disconnect between the foundation and the topping-out speed. Palantir’s Q3 report is in front of me, like a construction progress chart: the number of floors is soaring, but the pile foundation hasn’t kept up.
First, look at the displacement of the load-bearing walls. U.S. commercial revenue surged 148%, surpassing government business for the first time; in structural mechanics, this is called a "load center shift." Previously, it relied on public construction projects for fixed quotas, but now orders from private developers have become the main load-bearing components, which is a good thing—commercial clients have shorter payment cycles and greater scalability, effectively replacing single-point support with a frame structure. The full-year guidance was raised again, indicating that the quality of the completed parts is indeed solid, and the client is willing to add more floors.
But designers all know that output value does not equal backlog. The total value of new contracts only increased by 6%, meaning the blueprint library for the next phase has not expanded accordingly. Your current cash flow looks good because the land stockpiled in the past two years is being concentratedly developed above ground; but the tower crane can’t keep hoisting the rebar from the previous floor forever. Once the new contract—the "new poured layer"—lags behind, the main construction will have a gap period. The nearly 90 percentage point gap between revenue growth and order growth is a structural gap, not a decorative one, and must be monitored with settlement observation instruments.
What’s more troublesome is the market side. The stock price has already risen 55% since July, which is equivalent to pricing the project at full rent, full occupancy, and flawless acceptance before construction even starts. Investors have prepaid for the penthouse; no matter how impressive your monthly output report is now, it only fulfills expectations, not surprises. The valuation "height limit" hangs overhead; strong performance hasn’t loosened it, precisely indicating that the reviewers are not focused on how many floors you’ve built, but whether this building can add more floors.
Commercial revenue surpassing government revenue rewrites the functional zoning of this building, which is commendable; but TCV only increasing by 6% tells me its scalability is hitting a ceiling. Real construction doesn’t rely on a shiny curtain wall to pass inspection, but on the depth of the pile foundation and the density of the column grid. When a company’s output curve is steeper than its order curve, what I see is not prosperity, but a building about to enter the transition floor construction phase without having prepared the next set of formwork. #palantirq3growth96%#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？
Brothers, the data is out: In Q3, global central banks net purchased 321 tons of gold, a 42% year-on-year increase, marking the highest single-quarter level since Q4 2024. However, gold prices fell below $4000 during the same period, shrinking by about a quarter since the end of February.
Central banks are buying, the market is selling; fundamentally, these are not the same transactions.
Central banks are buying long-term credit hedges—reserve diversification and de-dollarization. The lower the price falls, the more they buy, locking it away in vaults without watching the K-line. The market, however, is pricing short-term interest rates: the Middle East war pushed Brent crude above $117, reigniting inflation stickiness, and the probability of a rate hike in December once surged to 86%. High interest rates and a strong dollar directly raise the opportunity cost of holding zero-coupon gold. Risk-averse funds even bypass gold, shifting to coupon-bearing U.S. Treasuries, turning gold from a “safe-haven anchor” into a “liquidity supplement tool.”
Old Mo says: Central banks are setting the price floor for gold, the market is setting the timing. 321 tons won’t change the probability of a December rate hike, but it determines who is supporting the $3850-3900 range. In the short term, watch interest rates; in the medium term, watch central banks. Don’t mix these two clocks. $BTC $ETH $XAU #AAOIQ3800GOutlook
AAOI reports Q3 tomorrow after market. Everyone is watching revenue. I'm watching 800G.
Q2: 800G was only $12.8M. Management guided 5x sequential growth in Q3. Guidance $255M-$290M total.
Demand > supply through mid-2027. Capacity going 200k -> 650k units/month. $200M+ in 1.6T orders already.
Stock fell from $233 to $59. Not because demand died. Because execution + dilution scared everyone.
If 800G actually 5x'd, this is the reset. If not, it's the trap.
$AAOI Oil crashed, but the money didn't go to the same place
Brent fell 8.7% in one day, WTI dropped 8.3%, smashing back to 88 and 95. The Democrats swept the midterm elections, and the market immediately bet on the end of the US-Iran war, with the war premium being wiped out in a day. But it's too early to say there's a "turnaround."
On the same day, gold rose 3.5% to 4068, silver jumped 5.28% to 52.4. Oil fell while gold and silver surged—not because risk appetite returned, but because money fled from war pricing and slipped into another safe haven.
Storage is even more complicated. The Dow rose 3%, but SanDisk fell nearly 10%, Micron and Seagate dropped over 7%, Western Digital fell over 6%. The storage sell-off is driven by the independent logic of AI capital expenditure peaking, unrelated to oil; the broader market rises while storage falls.
BTC and ETH are the same. BTC returned to around 80,000, ETH to 2,408, up 3% and 5.5% in 24 hours, but BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of 643 million, and ETH ETFs had continuous outflows. The rebound has the flavor of short covering, not new incremental funds coming in.
My view: The oil plunge is not a turnaround; it dismantled one narrative, and money hasn't found a unified direction yet. Gold and silver are catching a wave first, storage is still getting hit, crypto is holding but lacks strength. Don't use one "turnaround" to explain all markets; it's more useful to look separately than to take sides.
Purely personal speculation, not investment advice. The sounding data just came back: Apple's temperature this quarter is 38 degrees, but the dew point is only 6 degrees—typical dry heat, hot and intense, with no decent rain.
Revenue rose 12% year-over-year to $114.5 billion, with iPhone alone up about 17% to $57.6 billion; both exceeded expectations, and the radar echo is a glaring red. But breaking down the $2.10 earnings per share, about $0.05 comes from tariff refunds—that's not natural precipitation, it's artificial rain enhancement with silver iodide, which disappears once the clouds clear. Excluding this layer, the real precipitation intensity needs to be downgraded.
What deserves more attention is the weather outlook for next quarter. The 7% to 10% revenue growth forecast shows stable wind direction and gentle pressure gradients, indicating predictable continuous clear weather. However, the gross margin guidance is only 45% to 46%, below market expectations—this is not a minor disturbance, but a sign of a deepening upper trough and a developing surface inverted trough.
The cause is clearly stated: rising prices of storage chips and increased costs of intelligent computing services. Translated into meteorological terms—the upstream moisture transport channel is being cut off, while surface evaporation intensifies and cloud bases rise, causing a systemic decline in precipitation efficiency. Costs are the cold air moving south, revenue is the warm moist air moving north; these two air masses collide head-on along the profit margin front, and what gets squeezed out in the end is not rain, but wind shear.
Looking downstream at the watershed. The linkage with the US stock token $xHOOD is essentially a confluence, not resonance. Heavy precipitation in the upstream mountains must evolve through river channels before reaching downstream hydrological stations, so token prices naturally lag the fundamentals by one or two observation periods. Therefore, what can be read from tonight's market is often not the performance itself, but the market's first barometric reaction to that earnings surprise—the barometer always moves before the thermometer.
Another easily overlooked observation: the dispersion of ensemble forecasts is widening. Revenue models across companies are highly consistent, with all divergence concentrated at the gross margin level, meaning error bars are lengthening and predictability is decreasing; the location of short-term strong convection can shift at any time. Typhoons themselves are uncontrollable, but their paths can be corrected; what really causes hypothermia is never the heavy rain, but the transition zone with the worst visibility and slipperiest roads during a frontal passage.
Observations end here—the gross margin sounding curve has already turned downward, while the water level at downstream hydrological stations has yet to rise. #appleq4marginpressure$BTC in one sentence: This is a "corrective rebound after a bearish landing," not a confirmed trend reversal. The nature of going long is to catch the rebound wave, with target levels set at the dense resistance zones above (81,200 / 82,000 / 82,800), and not to hold positions as if following a trend.
1. Before going long, pass these three gates first (if one is not met, stay out of the market):
1. 80,000 must hold: This is the lifeline of this rebound. If the daily close falls back below 80,000, it means the rally on 11/4 was just a spike, and the bullish logic is invalid.
2. ETF must not revert to continuous net outflows: It just turned positive on 11/04, so observe if it remains positive for 2 consecutive days. If there is again a single-day net outflow exceeding −500 million (especially large redemptions from IBIT), exit the long position after the first leg.
3. Do not trade on "instant news": The stolen funds from Binance are still on-chain and unmoved; any large transfer could trigger an immediate dump. Stop opening new positions on the day of any on-chain anomaly.If this rebound is just derivatives trying to save themselves, then those chasing it might be catching the last wave. The dip you see— is it a return of spot buying, or just shorts covering with fireworks? Watching the market last night, the most direct feeling was: prices are bouncing, but sentiment hasn't caught up. BTC pulled back from the lows, the 1-hour MACD did cross bullishly, but the 4-hour and daily moving averages are still pressing down, with the SMA20 around 80407 acting like a ceiling. RSI at 38.1 shows weak recovery, not a strong reversal. I've seen this structure many times; the faster the bounce, the more you have to ask who's buying. The main focus is on derivatives. When the price dropped near 76000 earlier, signs of short squeeze were obvious; the perpetual contract funding rate briefly turned negative then quickly back positive, indicating leveraged longs were tentatively covering. But the problem is, this rebound's volume didn't increase in sync; futures open interest rose faster than spot, meaning the price push is a short-term game in the contract market, not real allocation of funds entering. ETFs saw a net outflow of $405 million on November 3rd, a key figure showing institutional risk appetite is still contracting, not turning bullish due to a technical rebound. There is also a bullish path: if ETF inflows turn positive in the next two or three days, combined with continued short covering, BTC could test the SMA20 resistance at 80407, ETH and altcoins might follow with a wave of sentiment recovery, and privacy coins like ZEC could attract short-term funds due to narrative rotation. But this path'sIn the futures market, whenever I hear about changes in regulatory responsibilities, I usually first look at who manages the contracts and how the rules connect, rather than rushing to judge whether it's good or bad news. This message also made me pause and ask: when changing referees, how do the old rules connect?
According to reporter Eleanor Terrett, House Democrats in the U.S. are discussing including amendments related to Waters' 2025 "Crypto Investor and Consumer Protection Act" in the next Congress's market structure bill, aiming to expand the SEC's authority and limit the CFTC's role; this is still under discussion.
My judgment is that the current focus should be on compliance uncertainty. The regulatory boundaries for traditional futures are relatively clear, but the classification of crypto assets remains a point of debate; if authority adjustments are made without clarifying boundaries, platforms may face increased compliance costs, and users might not be clearer about whom to turn to for rights protection. This is my speculation. Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Do you think this time we should first clarify asset classification or first expand regulatory authority? Gold Review Today～
Today gold made a strong rally, starting from around 3919, reaching a high of 4051, with a single-day increase of over 3%. The ADP data released in the evening was 8.6, higher than expected. After the data was released, gold prices did not quickly weaken but continued to fluctuate and digest at a high level.
Technically, the hourly chart stands firmly above the short-term moving average, showing strong short-term bullish momentum. The resistance at the top is at today's high of 4051-4052; support below is at the 4000 level. Holding this level means the short-term strong structure remains.
It should be clear that this round of rise is mainly a rebound driven by news stimulus; the long-term bearish structure has not directly reversed, and there is significant uncertainty in the high-level consolidation.
This kind of high-level market is not suitable for blindly chasing gains. Focus on observing signs of stagnation at resistance levels. Regardless of bullish or bearish, positions must be light and defense cannot be neglected.
Trading is not about chasing just because prices rise. The bigger the bullish candle, the more important it is to maintain rhythm and patiently wait for confirmed opportunities✨$XAUT $BTC last night at 11 PM Beijing time surged from 79,300 to 81,196 in one go on the hourly chart, now back around 80,430, up 4.5% in 24h, rising more than 7% from the election night low of 75,600.
According to CoinGlass data, about $950 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in 24 hours, with $560 million in short positions. The largest single liquidation was a $38 million ETH long on HTX.
$ETH is even stronger, up 6.6% in 24h, reaching a high of 2,450. Binance ETH contract open interest rose from $5.39 billion to $5.73 billion in one day, but the funding rate is -0.003%, indicating quite a few bearish positions in the contracts.
Glassnode says the largest short liquidation zone above is near 87,000, but Coinbase premium remains negative until Wednesday, and US spot buying hasn’t truly come in yet.
My view is that this move mainly squeezed out the shorts; spot needs to catch up first. Holding 80,000 is more important than chasing 82,000. Last night I stared at the screen and saw two numbers
First, the Democrats really swept both chambers, with 52 seats in the Senate, the biggest blue wave since 1993
Second, BTC surged from 75,618 straight up past 80,000
I originally thought it would drop because of regulatory headwinds; Coinbase options protection costs had risen to the highest since April
But it went up, and in the most aggressive way
24-hour short liquidations were 533 million, while longs only liquidated 400 million
In other words, last night those who got taken out were the short sellers
I know you want to ask about Vitalik's tweet, but I won't say
What really impressed me was ETH, which rose 6.5% in a single day, surging from 2,255 to 2,443; yesterday I said it was stuck below the 2,285 liquidation zone
Today it crossed right over
So this round isn't about money coming in, it's about shorts being cleared out, with open interest actually down 4.36%
I don't believe a rally driven by short covering can go far, but I trust my own judgment even less
ZEC at 1,291, NU7 activates tomorrow
Do you think this wave is a turning point or a bull trap? I'll keep quiet and listen
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Shorts are being squeezed; the rebound fuel is not buying pressure
BTC 80,476 (+4.41%), ETH 2,419 (+6.57%). With the election settled, BTC reclaimed the 80,000 level.
This is not new money buying. 24h total liquidations across the network reached 936 million, with shorts accounting for 533 million. The key point is that open interest actually dropped by 4.36%, indicating a pure short squeeze triggered by stop-losses, not an active long attack.
ETFs are still bleeding. BTC ETFs saw a daily outflow of 27 million, and ETH ETFs have had outflows for 7 consecutive days totaling 85.3 million. Although Binance had a 2.3 billion inflow, it has not yet converted into real buying pressure.
Leverage structure contradiction. Open interest across the market dropped to a 12-month low, with leverage basically cleared; however, BTC funding rates remain positive (+0.01%), meaning longs are still holding on.
Key levels:
BTC: Resistance at 79,500-80,500 above; failure to hold here is a correction. Support at 76,000-76,600 below; a break targets 75,250.
ETH: 2,200 below is the critical bottom support line.
In short: The short squeeze brings a rebound, but the fuel is stop-loss orders, not buying pressure; ETFs are still exiting. Do not chase longs; wait for a pullback to 76,000-76,600 to stabilize before considering. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real trigger.Good morning, just picked up my coffee and glanced at the market. Last night's deep V reversal—did it cause many short position brothers to get liquidated to zero, and make those who didn't get in regret it badly? Don't rush to FOMO and chase the highs!
$BTC is currently priced at 80489, soaring from 75690 and pulling back above 80,000. Looks fierce, right? But looking at the 4-hour long-short ratio, it dropped directly to 1.32, indicating this rally isn't driven by new money entering but by shorts being completely crushed (liquidation buy orders), plus longs who were deeply underwater earlier are frantically closing positions to break even and run. The positions are lighter now; chasing now likely means standing on the sidelines.
Next, $ETH is at 2419, surging 7%, but its 4-hour long-short ratio is even more extreme, dropping to 1.17. Like Bitcoin, this rally is caused entirely by short squeeze liquidations. Once the trapped longs above get dumped, the price will come down the same way it went up.
Finally, $SOL is at 95.7. The market has rallied this much, but look at its 4-hour long-short ratio—still stubbornly high at 3.28, indicating retail investors are still stubborn. Unless the main players completely wash out this batch of leveraged positions, SOL can't have a decent rally. Be ready for a possible further drop anytime.
In summary, the long-short ratio plummeting after a surge shows this was a targeted blast against shorts. Until the trend fully reverses, control your hands and don't get carried away.
Last night, were your shorts precisely liquidated, or did your longs successfully profit? Do you dare chase this surge?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥 Attention! The historical bottoms of BTC bear markets and the historical trend of $BTC may reveal an interesting pattern.
Reviewing the performance of the past three deep bear market bottoms:
📍 2015: Bottomed about 410 days after the bull market peak, price around $160.
📍 2018: Bottomed about 360 days after the bull market peak, price around $3,200.
📍 2022: Bottomed about 370 days after the bull market peak, price around $15,500.
From these deep bottom points to the next bull market peak, the gains were:
🚀 $160 → $19,800, over 120x
🚀 $3,200 → $69,000, about 21x
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000 (expected), about 8x
An interesting detail: although the bear markets lasted about a year each, the absolute bottom price increased each time, while the multiples of gains decreased each time (120x, 21x, 8x).
Historically, as asset market capitalization grows, volatility and gains naturally exhibit diminishing marginal returns.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 I always thought the worst off in a coin theft were the people who lost their coins. But after watching these past couple of days, the hackers are pretty miserable too.
On Polygon's side, about 23.86 million $POL and 46.63 million $POL are stuck in the attacker's address, unable to move. It's not that exchanges froze them; the block-producing nodes simply refuse to allow transfers. Polygon now wants to take it a step further by proposing a hard fork to directly transfer these coins to a recovery address.
To put it plainly, even if you steal the coins, they aren't really yours if the ledger on the chain refuses to recognize them. At first, I felt quite vindicated, but then I thought, if this kind of operation is ever abused, it could be pretty scary.🔥 Attention! There may be an interesting pattern between Bitcoin halving cycles and the historical trend of $BTC.
Reviewing the "golden pit" performance before the past three halvings:
📍 2016: Bottomed about 180 days before halving, price around $160.
📍 2020: Bottomed about 60 days before halving (312 crash), price around $3,800.
📍 2024: Bottomed about 30 days before halving (pullback after ETF approval), price around $38,500.
From these lows to the bull market peaks, the gains were:
🚀 $160 → $19,800, over 120x
🚀 $3,800 → $69,000, about 18x
🚀 $38,500 → $126,000 (expected), about 3.2x
An interesting detail: the closer to the halving, the higher the absolute bottom price each time (160 -> 3800 -> 38500), and the shorter the bottoming period, which were 180 days, 60 days, and 30 days respectively.
Historically, the times when the market is most panicked and liquidity is most drained often also nurture the biggest opportunities for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Today, $BTC experienced an extreme volatile session with large swings, initially suppressed then rallying, showing full amplitude fluctuations. In the early session, market panic spread due to election expectations, pushing prices down to a low of 75,690, with many shorts pre-positioned, creating a bearish atmosphere. As the election results gradually settled, all negative factors were fully realized, forming a classic "all bad news priced in" scenario. Short positions at low levels began to cutThere are two batches of $POL stuck in addresses, and no one can move them. It's not because the private keys are lost, nor because the exchanges froze them; it's because the block-producing nodes are not allowing these funds to move.
One is the attacker address related to the Polymarket incident, holding about 23.86 million POL; the other is the attacker address from the Binance incident, holding about 46.63 million POL. Both batches are stuck in place.
A member of the Polygon Labs validator support team proposed a PIP (Polygon Improvement Proposal). The approach is not negotiation or legal pursuit, but a direct chain modification: through a Polygon PoS mainnet hard fork, the protocol layer will transfer these funds to a designated recovery address. In other words, nodes first cut off the transfer path, then redirect the balances elsewhere, all completed on-chain without relying on any party's cooperation.
For the secondary market, the short-term implication is straightforward: this portion of POL currently has no path to create selling pressure, as it cannot enter exchanges nor be dumped on the market. The real variable lies in the hard fork itself—enough nodes must upgrade to implement the proposal, and there is always a possibility of it getting stuck midway.
What is more worth pondering is another layer: a public chain can redefine "whose money" it is by modifying balances at the protocol level. The reason for doing this today is to recover stolen funds, which is justifiable. But the real question left by the words "designated recovery address" is who proposes it, who approves it, and where the boundaries lie.11.5 BTC Market Outlook Today
BTC fell below 76,000 and then surged back to 80,000, causing shorts to be caught off guard overnight.
On the surface, it looks like a rebound, but in essence, it's a short squeeze:
The continuous decline released panic selling, and key levels saw spot buying support; after short sellers entered on the breakdown, the price quickly recovered, triggering short stop losses, and the covering pushed the price even higher.
But this doesn't change the main trend:
Macroeconomic pressure, ETF outflows, and regulatory uncertainties remain. Reclaiming 80,000 only indicates that short positions were too crowded in the short term, not that the overhead resistance and macro pressure have been absorbed.
The most important takeaway for trading:
At the end of a decline, a breakdown ≠ continued drop.
Chasing shorts at this point profits from momentum but risks being liquidated by a liquidity rebound. The direction may be right, but the timing is wrong, resulting in an exit anyway.
So my view remains unchanged: the monthly trend is still bearish, with at least one more major pullback expected.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
$BTC $ETH