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$ETH
Just saw a claim: BlackRock transferred 37,470 ETH to Coinbase Prime, about $83.3 million, signaling a dump. I shook my head halfway through hearing this.
ETF subscriptions/redemptions and market maker rebalancing are routine actions; Coinbase Prime is just a custody transfer hub, with multiple round trips in a month. A single transfer in cannot be labeled as a dump. But I admit, at this critical moment—Binance hacked for 6.3 billion, whole network panicking—any large holder moving coins out will be magnified.
I casually tested: OKX ETH current price around 2230, down 4% in 24 hours, lowest 2171, highest 2378; Binance 2225, both consistent. Funding rate only 0.02%, basically near zero; open interest 640,000 contracts, about $1.4 billion, not much shrinkage.
Funding rate near zero plus stable open interest means this drop is from spot selling, not leveraged liquidation. Price is set by panic, positions haven’t surrendered yet. As for BlackRock’s transfer, we can talk when they actually place an order.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC The rebound this afternoon was way too weak!!!
It touched 78700 and then dropped back to 77350
How many people who just shouted "V-shaped bottom" this afternoon got shaken awake?
This morning when it pulled up from 76450, it looked like it was going to reclaim 80,000 directly, but it didn't even touch the edge of the 79200 resistance before falling off
Tonight it still has to honestly go through a second bottom test.
Don't rush to catch a falling knife halfway, and don't blindly short at the bottom floor
Just a fair warning upfront
If no one catches this second dip tonight, the morning's golden needle bottom test will be all for nothing.
The key support tonight is between 76800-76450, watch closely if it can hold
The resistance zone is between 78500-79200, don't chase hard if it can't break through.
Watch ETH at 2200 and 2260, it has the same temperament as the overall market.
This afternoon's pullback completely wiped out the gains from the white session
Fortunately, it hasn't broken below this morning's low of 76450 yet, so the double bottom possibility remains. As long as 76450 holds, after a second confirmation, there's still a chance to repair and move higher $SOL $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 * Current Status: SUI is trading around $0.8850, recovering slightly (+1.79%) today after dropping to a local low of $SUI 0.8272.
* Historical Context: SUI reached its all-time high of $SUI 5.35 in January 2025 and an all-time low of $0.3648 in October 2023.
Over the past month, the price dropped sharply from a local peak of $SUI 1.2644 down to test support at $0.8272.
* Prediction: If support above $0.82–$0.85 holds, SUI could bounce toward the $0.98–$1.05 resistance zone. $BNB Binance has basically admitted the loss this time, 6.3 billion.
The official announcement states the total impact is about 6.3 billion USD, with 3 billion frozen, and the remaining 3.3 billion to be covered by the SAFU fund and company funds themselves.
The cause was that an operations engineer's laptop was hacked, and the attacker used container permissions to initiate withdrawals. The private keys were not leaked; all the money slipped out through the permission interface.
But honestly, this 3.3 billion shortfall will most likely be compensated with BNB in the end. After a while, when the reserve proof is updated, everyone can just check the proportion of BNB inside.
If the proportion of their own coin surges, then the phrase "user funds are absolutely safe" basically becomes a self-guarantee.Brothers, seeing the current market, are you still thinking about bottom-fishing to go long?
Are you numb from the drop? The overall market can't even hold up!
Look at the screenshot, $ETH directly plunged 5.87%, now priced at 2228.99! That short position I entered at the high of 2354 is now comfortably earning a 15.94% profit. The trend is down; going against it to catch a falling knife is a dead end.
Why do I say you absolutely must not bottom-fish now? Let's purely look at the order book and candlesticks:
First, the candlestick is a guillotine. A big bearish candle smashed through all supports, the moving averages are all trending down. Volume surged on the plunge, with no sign of stabilization; the current price is just halfway down the mountain.
Second, below are all big traps. Look closely at the order book, there's a huge buy order of 264.01 at 2229.24. Don't think this is the bottom! This is clearly a "confusion trap" set by the market makers to fool retail traders into thinking it won't fall further and rush in to catch the falling knife. Once you enter, they instantly cancel the order and dump the price, causing a free fall!
Third, heavy resistance above. From 2229.25 to 2229.30, there are rows of sell orders pressing down, the bulls don't even have a chance to lift their heads.
This waterfall drop has just begun, don't blindly bottom-fish.
$BTC $SOL #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Expected Value Hunter | Today's Expected Value October 30, 2026 | SanDisk (SanDisk) If you saw SanDisk's earnings report last night, you most likely did one of two things: either thought "This finally proves me right," or checked the market price, then put your phone down. Revenue was $11.03 billion, up 378% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $49.51, with market expectations at $46.67. Adjusted operating margin was 80.4%, gross margin 85.1%. Data center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter, nearly 17 times year-over-year. At the same time, they announced a 1-for-8 stock split and promised to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders, having already spent $5 billion on buybacks this quarter. Then, the stock closed down 5.32% on Thursday, continued to fall around $1279 after hours, and dropped over 8% pre-market. The numbers are screaming, but the price is silent. Both things are true simultaneously. The market is not selling the performance. SanDisk's quarter, by any fundamental framework, is flawless. Revenue, profit, guidance—all exceeded expectations. The Q2 revenue guidance of $12.2 to $12.6 billion has a midpoint also above market consensus. The selling pressure comes from several more distant sources. Samsung's quarterly profit missed expectations, putting a damper on the entire memory chip sector sentiment. Alphabet plunged 12% after earnings, as the market's patience on whether "AI capital expenditures can turn into returns" is being repriced. Amazon andCore PCE rose to 3.1%, which looks glaring but is actually a "expected" negative — no surprise is the best news.
BEA Thursday data: September core PCE year-on-year 3.1% (previous 3.0%), month-on-month 0.3%; overall PCE year-on-year 3.6% (previous 3.4%), month-on-month 0.5%, mainly driven up by a 9.2% monthly increase in gasoline and other energy commodities. On the same day, Q3 GDP annualized at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.1%. The Fed maintained rates at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10-2 vote this week, while Cook and Harker advocated a 25bp hike. CME FedWatch shows the December rate hike probability fell from about 84% on Wednesday to about 71%; the data release actually loosened expectations. $BTC is around $77,300, $ETH around $2,230, down about 3.5% and 4.2% in 24h respectively, short-term sentiment is cold, but inflation is not out of control and the economy is still strongly expanding, so the macro fundamentals are not bad.
Do you think the December rate hike probability will continue to fall, easing risk assets, or will energy inflation push it back above 80%? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH 🚀 $HYPE — LONG SETUP
HYPE is showing strong bullish momentum after bouncing from $74.45. Buyers are stepping in with increased volume.
📈 Direction: LONG
Entry: $89–$92
🎯 TP1: $97.70 | TP2: $102 | TP3: $108
🛑 Stop-loss: $86
Confirmation: Watch for price to hold above $89–$90. A breakout above $97.74 could open the door to further upside.
Don't chase the pump. Wait for confirmation.
DYOR. Storage can't hold up either, where is the left-side bottom-fishing window?
The pre-market atmosphere remains grim. The storage sector, propped up by SK Hynix for a day, still fell further, the cover was lifted. Google has returned to near its March lows, Micron and SanDisk are testing July support, next to watch are the midterm election results and the evolution of the war.
There are roughly two paths: if both chambers are lost, the market may continue to sell off first, then brew a major reversal at some point; if Congress is split, it may directly reverse. My plan is to fully buy in batches on the left side before November 3, then increase leverage on the right side after news confirmation. This is a window for a capital scale leap, but leverage is a double-edged sword, discipline must not be lost.
Not investment advice, just pre-market notes. #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $SNDK $INTC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
Pre-market US stock diary (October 30, 2026): The AI accounts, someone will have to go through them live tonight
As soon as the pre-market futures opened, the vibe was off. Nasdaq futures down 2.12%, S&P futures down 0.97%, but Dow futures only down 0.06%, almost flat. This is not a systemic crash, it's targeted explosions in the tech sector.
There are just two triggers: Amazon and Intel.
Amazon AWS growth of 39% is true, but quarterly capital expenditure is 77.2 billion, free cash flow directly down to -42.3 billion, pre-market down 7.5%.
Intel is even worse, Q4 guidance collapsed, pre-market down as much as 25%, PC demand is poor, Israeli factory exploded, the burn rate shows no end. Storage, optical communications, AI cloud stocks all fell, SK Hynix down 6%, Applied Optoelectronics down 8.5%.
Where is the money going? Pharmaceuticals and finance are picking it up.
Eli Lilly up 6% last night, Merck and JPMorgan steadily up. US Treasury yields fell to 4.94%, the dollar lost 102, gold actually fell below 4000, oil rose above 104.
This combination translates to one sentence: safe-haven money is moving to places where "returns can be seen now," rather than continuing to pour into "big promises five years from now."
Tonight, don’t watch how much the Nasdaq falls, watch if the Dow can hold. The tech sector is reshuffling internally, splitting into two paths from today: those with real cash flow and those burning cash on stories financed by funding.$ZEC's slow decline and shakeout have ended, and the bulls are gathering strength again!!!
After a sharp rise, ZEC quickly fell back, compounded by the impact of the hacker attack on Binance. It directly dropped to around 1180, then Binance provided a perfect response at that time!
Market sentiment continues to warm up, and ZEC has rebounded accordingly. The current price is around 1244, firmly holding above 1240! Additionally, the spot ETF funds for ZEC have consistently maintained net inflows! So the bullish momentum for ZEC is still quite strong!
Ice姐 expects ZEC to rebound quickly, targeting 1350!
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $SOL The next ugly pullback could be the opportunity we've been waiting MONTHS for
Last macro update I pointed out that the move off the low was still only 3 waves(threaded)
That hasn't changed my approach
We could still get another push into that red resistance before the larger correction unfolds
But here's what I REALLY care about
That blue zone
If price gives us a clean corrective move into that area we could finally have the larger swing setup we've been patiently waiting for These past two days have also triggered a wave of security anxiety.
deBridge's trading volume has clearly increased over the last 2 days, and the protocol's revenue has correspondingly grown during this period.
This means that the funds used to buy back $DBR have relatively increased in the past 2 days.
Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that DBR will rise immediately. But over a longer cycle, various events in the crypto market may occasionally bring more revenue and buybacks to deBridge.$GRT addresses an important challenge in Web3: accessing and organizing blockchain data efficiently. Indexing infrastructure helps decentralized applications retrieve information without building every data system themselves. Long-term relevance depends on query demand, indexing quality, developer adoption, and sustainable incentives for network participants.For the line about OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz, I translated the original ICE press release from October 29. OKX handles distribution and customer access, while the market and clearing are exclusively operated by ICE.
At first, I also thought "joining forces" meant the three would open a new exchange together and quickly start operations in the US. But reading further, it doesn't add up. ICE and Trade.xyz first need to obtain regulatory approval, including for leverage trading; then the joint venture between ICE and OKX must get its own US broker-dealer and futures commission merchant registrations before it can offer services externally. There are two layers of approval, and the press release doesn't specify any dates.
ICE itself states that over 99% of its business is institutional. Retail perpetual contracts have a separate clearing system, isolated from the old futures book, and the joint venture aims to onboard OKX's global retail users.
The hype has arrived first. OKX HYPE perpetual contracts traded 660 million USDT on October 29, compared to only 157 million the day before—more than four times.
Friends in the US currently can't trade anything yet, so don't be misled by the phrase "entering the US." I'm watching two things: whether the leverage approval is granted, and when the joint venture's broker registration will be completed. I guess neither will happen this year; if one does get approved before year-end, I'll admit I was wrong. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $PEPE Note today's sentiment data: bullish dropped from 82% to 57%, bearish surged from 3% to 37%, a complete sentiment reversal within one day. Everyone knows the reason — hacker dumping.
But in my years of trading, the most important lesson I've learned is: sentiment indicators are only valuable when read contrarily. When 82% are bullish and 3% bearish, that's the riskiest time because those who should buy have already bought; conversely, when 37% are panicking bearish and the discussion boards are full of "it's over" "hackers will dump to zero," the selling pressure has actually already been released during the session — today's 85 sales by the hacker were panic itself, yet the price did not collapse.
Looking at fundamentals, have they changed? No. Sun Yuchen's related wallet still holds about $50 million in spot, not dumping; Canary's spot ETF application window is in December, this catalyst is approaching day by day; 90-day gains are still 78%, the overall trend remains intact. The only thing that changed is sentiment, and sentiment is the most unreliable and quickest to revert thing in this market.
I'm not telling you to blindly catch a falling knife; trading requires stop-loss and discipline. What I mean is: those who panic-sell due to sudden events often sell at the bottom area of this correction. By the time sentiment recovers and bearish ratio falls back to single digits, the price will no longer be at this level.
The market rewards the calm, and this is especially true for meme coins.$GRT addresses an important challenge in Web3: accessing and organizing blockchain data efficiently. Indexing infrastructure helps decentralized applications retrieve information without building every data system themselves. Long-term relevance depends on query demand, indexing quality, developer adoption, and sustainable incentives for network participants.$PARTI Objective assessment • Points supporting a long position: funding rate slightly negative, OI rising, current price still holding above the rally platform. • Points not supporting / risks: drastic fluctuations over the past 24 hours (single coin with extremely narrow liquidity prone to instant spikes), FDV only about 58 million USD, a small-cap new coin, shallow contract liquidity; also, the recent long upper shadow indicates heavy selling pressure above, going long means catching a falling knife during a pullback, stop loss must be strict. If you still decide to go long: it is recommended to take a light position, set a clear stop loss (for example, exit if it falls below the rally starting point around 0.045 or 5–8% below your cost), do not hold the position stubbornly, and expect extreme spikes to trigger stop loss.$FET represents the intersection of artificial intelligence and decentralized technology. Blockchain-based coordination could support autonomous agents and decentralized AI services, but practical utility remains the central test. Investors should examine working applications, real user demand, ecosystem development, and whether token incentives support sustainable participation.The ears haven't even filled with grain yet, but they're already eager to cut—it's ruining the crops. $W This batch is currently like this—up 4.64% in 24 hours, looks promising, but when I checked the field, the short-term RSI has already hit 71.7, glaringly overbought, wilting like leaves at noon in midsummer, ready to droop at any moment.
Look at the Bollinger Bands, the short-term price has already reached 103% of the upper band, only 0.1% away from the top, and the mid-term has surged to 113%, overflowing 0.7% beyond the upper edge. This isn't vigorous crop growth; it's vines growing too fast, with roots not keeping up on water and fertilizer. The old hands all know, the batch that grows too fast will break first when the wind blows.
The long-term RSI is only 46.2, neutral to slightly cool, indicating this heat wave is a short flame that won't warm the whole field. The signal is clear—sell. My rule is: don't plant under the midday sun; wait until the sun leans west and the ground cools down before acting. I set my entry 2.1% above the current price, waiting for the ground price to be artificially high again to lure followers in, then I follow the short trend to dig in.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.01 (current price +2.1%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (-6.6%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (-5.9%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (-12.3%)
Take Profit 1 is set at -6.6%, which is the lower Bollinger Band boundary returning level, to harvest the first basket; Take Profit 2 is at -5.9%, to clear out the remaining stock. Stop Loss is at -12.3%; if it breaks this level, it means I misjudged the season, so I cut losses and exit, not fighting the weather. Don't be greedy for the last bite—autumn harvest needs sunny days but also frost protection.
The mid-term price is too far from the upper band; a pullback is inevitable. Chasing in now is like sowing seeds in the dead of winter—wasted effort.
Cutting down ears before grain filling isn't harvest time; it's waiting for them to rot in the field. AWS grew nearly 40%, so why did Amazon still fall?
Last night’s Amazon earnings report probably left many AI-optimistic investors conflicted.
In Q3, AWS revenue reached $46 billion, up 39.3% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in nearly five years. The company’s overall operating profit hit $28.1 billion, up 61% year-over-year.
These results are actually quite impressive.
But after the earnings release, Amazon’s stock price still dropped in after-hours trading.
Interestingly, the OKX prediction market had previously set a question guessing whether Amazon’s GAAP earnings per share this quarter would exceed $2.
The announced result was $1.89.
However, you can’t just look at this number alone. Last year’s same period included a $9.5 billion gain from an Anthropic investment, which boosted the profit base at that time.
I think Amazon’s biggest controversy right now is its aggressive spending.
The company expects capital expenditures to reach $220 billion by 2026, and free cash flow has already turned negative $42.4 billion over the past 12 months.
AWS’s rapid growth indicates strong demand for computing power. But if it requires such massive annual investments just to maintain growth, investors will inevitably worry about the return cycle.
Of course, AWS’s own profitability is also improving. If capital expenditure growth slows in the future and cash flow improves, the market might reassess its value again.
If it were you, would you be willing to keep paying for AWS’s nearly 40% growth, or wait until free cash flow improves before considering it?This hacker fooled everyone, the money got frozen, but the hacker ran away.
After stealing the coins, the hacker didn’t foolishly leave USDT in the wallet waiting to be frozen.
He deposited USDT into Aave.
Then he used this pile of USDT as collateral to borrow a bunch of ETH.
After borrowing, he left.
The person disappeared.
Only later did Tether and Circle start taking action.
One froze 1.5 billion USDT.
The other froze 800 million USDC.
The freezing was quick, and the numbers were shocking.
It looks like the money was locked down, right?
But think carefully.
What got frozen?
It was the collateral in the Aave pool.
Not the ETH in the hacker’s hands.
ETH has no issuer, no customer service, and no one can just press a button to freeze it.
So it ended up like this mess.
Aave is holding a bunch of USDT that can’t be moved.
The hacker has ETH in his pocket that he can spend freely.
The protocol is stuck, and the person ran away.
Many people praise the hacker as smart.
I say this isn’t smart; it’s exposing a hole that everyone knows about but no one wants to mention.
Stablecoins have issuers.
Issuers have freezing rights.
DeFi uses stablecoins as collateral.
Once frozen, liquidation gets stuck.
This isn’t just Aave’s problem.
It’s a problem all DeFi protocols that use stablecoin collateral have to face.
Issuers want compliance, protocols want freedom.
When these two collide, bad debt emerges.
So who ends up paying?
Not the hacker.
It’s the depositors, the token holders, the entire protocol.
That’s the most disgusting part.
The hacker doesn’t even need to win; he just needs to dump this mess on others.
Of course, it’s not that perfect.
Borrowing costs interest, and ETH’s price fluctuates.
There are traces on-chain, so cashing out isn’t that easy.
But what’s truly scary about this isn’t how much money was lost.
It’s that it exposed a fact.
The freezing power of centralized issuers and the liquidation logic of decentralized protocols have never really connected.
The hacker is just the first to break through this thin veil.
Whether he actually did it and if the details are correct still depends on on-chain data and official statements.
But the principle is clear.
Assets that can be frozen were swapped for assets that can’t be frozen.
The risk was thrown onto the protocol, while liquidity was taken away.
This move was indeed dirty and ruthless.📉 Hasn't dropped below 76,519 for seven hours, I'm still bearish — the correction line moved from 79,813 down to 78,000.
Leaving such a distant line is like keeping a fallback option.
Forced liquidations stopped: 1.599 billion liquidated in 24 hours, only 1.575 billion at 18:00, an increase of just 24 million in three hours.
The largest single liquidation today was 11.08 million, a Binance long position at 79,254 was taken out.
Price is still grinding: seven 1H candles with six lower highs, pressure from 78,655 down to 77,456, volume steadily declining.
Sellers aren't forced, they want to leave. This kind of drop is slow but more solid.
Funding rates confirm this: BTC stuck at 0.01000% base, premium −0.0347%, ETH only at 21%.
US pre-market doesn't help: Nvidia −2.65%, Apple −1.16%.
So 76,519 will be retested tonight, breaking below points to 76,000 — forced liquidations stopped, so no deep crash.
Contrary evidence: OKX open interest up 1.02%, new shorts increasing, but global down −3.76%.
Invalidation line: 1H close above 78,000 cancels this. Window: before 08:00 tomorrow.
The above is my personal review, not investment advice.
Will 76,519 come again tonight?
$BTC #US September core PCE rose to 3.1%, rate hike expectations remain high $BTC Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion, with $1.5 billion liquidated overnight, yet BTC's low only dropped to 76,642.
It just touched the 21-week moving average, only 30 dollars short.
Honestly, I was quite surprised to see this candlestick. Such a level of negative news couldn't break through, indicating someone is buying at the bottom. But I don't think the bottom is reached yet; volume hasn't appeared, nor has panic.
So I reviewed the cycles, on-chain data, moving averages, and macro factors I've been watching these past two weeks.
What concerns me most is a coincidence: three completely unrelated methods all point to the same range, 70,000 to 74,000. After doing cycle analysis for so long, this is rare.
My judgment is a hold first, then a drop. Most likely it can hold before the election, even rebound near 80,000, but the final drop may not be over. The timeframe I’m focusing on is November 16 to 21, the week Anthropic goes public.
Of course, I could be wrong.
The first test point is the weekly close at 8 AM next Monday,
whether 75,900 holds is critical. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 I went all in with all my XP
I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong.
First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization.
Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market willIntel plunged about 26% pre-market, Q4 guidance slashed, I’m not bottom-fishing.
Q3 revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year, adjusted EPS 0.52, actually beating Wall Street expectations.
But the company’s Q4 guidance is revenue of $15 to $16 billion, adjusted EPS 0.25, far below the market’s roughly $17.1 billion and 0.43 expectations.
The CFO clearly said PC weakness will last at least until mid-2027; client business is already down 5% year-over-year this quarter, and even a 78% surge in data center can’t support the guidance.
My take: This is a typical "current quarter okay, forward guidance collapse" earnings kill. Nasdaq pre-market is about 68.4 versus yesterday’s close of 92.07, a drop of about 26%; OKX perpetual swaps are hovering around 68, don’t catch this falling knife empty-handed.
What I’m doing: Watching, not bottom-fishing. First see if it can stop falling above 65 and recover to 70; if it breaks below the pre-market low near 67, it means this earnings sell-off isn’t over yet, so don’t rush to bargain hunt in the short term.
Do you think this is a one-time guidance shock, or a signal of a second bottom in the chip cycle?
$INTC $NVDA $AMD
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Bitcoin Faces $11 Billion Options Expiry, US Midterm Elections May Intensify Market Volatility
Bitcoin options worth approximately $11 billion will expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of the open interest in Bitcoin options on the Deribit platform. With the US midterm elections approaching on November 3, the market may face increased volatility.
Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on Monday this week and has since hovered around that level, trading at about $81,100 in the Singapore market on Thursday. Among the options set to expire, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 contracts likely to expire worthless in the short term. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, stated that if market makers hold short positions, their hedging activities could accelerate Bitcoin's drop to the $75,000 to $78,000 range;
A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey shows the median year-end price forecast for Bitcoin is $90,800; if the Democrats control both chambers, it is $76,450; if Congress is split between parties, it is $84,100. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that after a year of historically low market volatility, Bitcoin's volatility may significantly increase in November.#StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著
Strategy Q3 net profit hits a record high for a single quarter, with significant contributions from digital asset gains
Strategy's Q3 net profit reached a record $19.53 billion: all unrealized gains on BTC holdings, with the cost line less than 3% below the current price
Strategy's Q3 net profit of $19.53 billion set a historical record, but nearly 100% of the profit came from fair value changes in Bitcoin; core software business revenue was only $125.4 million, down 3% year-over-year, with main business growth basically stalled.
As of October 25, the company held 848,517 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,446 per BTC. The current coin price is less than 3% above the cost line, becoming a psychological support level closely watched across the market.
Deep concerns continue to emerge: although holdings increased by 26% this year, the share dilution rate is faster, causing BTC per share to actually decrease by 3.7%; this quarter, 5,552 BTC were sold to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase shares. The previous "issue shares to buy coins" growth strategy has shifted to preserving cash flow. Coupled with the CFO's departure scheduled for November 5, market sentiment is cautious, with a 90% predicted chance of a post-market decline.
Essentially, it remains a BTC leverage amplifier, with profits fully tied to coin price fluctuations; the "largest long" marginal buying power is weakening, so BTC's market cannot rely solely on it for support.
$BTC $MSTR $BTC is now at 77423, down 3.28% in 24 hours, with $534 million liquidated. The numbers are clear. But what I want to point out is another detail—OI dropped by 1.48%, whereas the previous drop was clearly accompanied by increased positions. What does this indicate? Leverage is withdrawing, not increasing. The heatmap around 76,000 is glaringly bright; the bulls are still stacked there, so if it really crashes down, it will trigger a chain reaction. So at this position, my first reaction to a rebound is not to chase but to see if it looks like it's inviting people in.
$ETH is even more straightforward, down 3.86%, with OI slashed by 6.06%, running away faster than anyone else. This kind of retreat speed doesn’t look like a shakeout, but more like giving up.
$HYPE is also cooling down noticeably. It previously surged 18% in one go, but now only 4.02% remains in 24 hours, and the OI increase has dropped to 5.71%. However, there’s still a bright band hanging above 97 to 98 dollars, so the bulls and bears probably still have to wrestle again.
My feeling is: BTC shouldn’t mistake the rebound for a reversal, ETH remains weak, and HYPE’s momentum is cooling off. If you’re itching to act, hold back for now and wait until those bright spots on the heatmap are digested before making a move. The resolution week is over. Looking at the three numbers together is more interesting than looking at any one of them alone: growth exceeded expectations, inflation remains high, and interest rates are unchanged. First, let's look at growth. Q3 GDP annualized at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.1% and also higher than Q2's 2.2%. Investment, consumption, and government spending are all rising. The economy is not bad, that's a fact. Next, inflation. September PCE year-over-year is 3.6%, core PCE year-over-year is 3.1%, month-over-month is 0.3%, all in line with expectations. But meeting expectations doesn't mean there are no problems: core PCE is slightly higher than August's 3.0%, still far from the 2% target. Inflation is not out of control, but it hasn't returned to the target either. Finally, interest rates. They remain unchanged. Growth is good, so there's no rush to cut; inflation is still high, so no cuts are dared. Thus, interest rates are stuck in the middle, not moving. Putting these three numbers together, the conclusion is actually quite contradictory: the economy is good enough not to need a rate cut, inflation is too high to allow a rate cut, and unchanged rates leave the market to find its own direction. The way the market finds direction is by first pushing up short squeezes, then falling back to long squeezes—Orbit's tally of liquidations in the past 24 hours shows 370 million in total, with 210 million longs and 160 million shorts, that's how it happens. Both sides are liquidated, indicating that the difficulty that night was not the direction, but the volatility itself. From these three numbers, I draw three points, all of which are easy to overlook when looking at a single number alone. First, good data does not equal a good direction. GDP exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean stock prices will rise; inflation meeting expectations does not necessarily mean the market will be stable. Data reflects the past threeTonight, not even a single meme was posted. Binance's 6.3 billion black swan crash left the group dead silent, the screen full of spikes. BTC instantly dropped to 76,400, wiping out 237,000 people and 1.5 billion USD across the network. This isn't trading crypto; it's a slaughterhouse 😔.
Current prices are unbearable: BTC fell below 78,000, hovering around 77,500, down 5.12% in a day; SOL directly broke through 100, lying around 97, down 7.25% in a day; ETH smashed through 2,200, down 5.58%; ZEC barely in the green.
Positions are even worse: in one hour, BTC, ETH, and SOL longs all collapsed, bloodied chips forcibly washed out; long leverage took a heavy hit, total open interest shrank, panic maxed out.
But just as everyone was blindly liquidating, I found another side: although Binance was the fuse, institutional futures positions didn’t withdraw; instead, they increased by 2.49% against the trend, ETFs quietly saw a net inflow of 135 million, the whole network is cutting losses, institutions are greedy.
This round is killing emotions and leverage; the foundation hasn’t collapsed at all. Huge volume traded—where would depth come from if no one was buying? Only retail is panicking; the main players are using bad news to shake out positions.
They say when others panic, I’m greedy, but tonight I won’t be cannon fodder. Unless BTC recovers above 80,000 or Binance’s withdrawal channel is fully clarified, I absolutely won’t catch the falling knife. Tonight I’ll just eat noodles and watch. What do you think—is this a violent shakeout by the main players or is the real bear market here? See you in the comments 😉. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Capital Flow: ETFs Are Buying, but the "Tsunami" of Leveraged Liquidations Swallows It
ETFs have seen inflows of about $423.7 million over three consecutive days (as of October 28), which on the surface signals positive institutional interest. However, this buying pressure is completely overwhelmed by forced selling from the leveraged market: during the decline from October 22 to 24, long liquidations reached $1.23 billion, accounting for 82% of total liquidations in the same period, with the selling pressure from liquidations far exceeding the marginal buying from ETFs.
Open Interest (OI) Rises Against the Trend: During the price drop, Binance Futures OI increased by +5.38% to approximately $7.79 billion in notional value, indicating that capital is opening new positions amid weakness — but the data cannot distinguish whether this is "new short positions entering" or "leveraged longs bottom-fishing," which point to completely opposite directions. The 8-hour funding rate is 0.0036%, nearly neutral, with neither longs nor shorts paying a meaningful premium, showing a lack of directional conviction at the derivatives level as well.
Marginal Improvement in Whale Behavior: The amount of inflows classified as whales has decreased from $5.9 billion in late August to about $3.8 billion, with large holders transferring less Bitcoin to exchanges, indicating that the "whale dumping" momentum has weakened. However, this is only a "slowdown in selling pressure," not a "return of buying interest."
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #CoinbaseQ3净利润转正，交易收入同比降43% Bro, $BTC Coinbase's earnings report really nailed the art of "diversifying away from the core business." $ETH
On the surface, the profit turned positive with over 700 million earned, sounds impressive, right? But digging deeper, the main business—transaction fee income—was cut in half, plunging 43%. So where did the profit come from? It was all pulled back by the paper revaluation gains on the Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings, basically a passive win.
The most interesting part is that the number of serious traders dropped, but their "prediction market" (betting on events) annualized revenue actually exceeded 200 million, with daily active users surging 60%.
In short, spot trading in the crypto space is indeed extremely quiet; everyone has gone off to play other side games. Just watch the show, don’t get carried away. Woke up to Bitcoin trading around $77,184, down nearly 5%. This is more than an ordinary pullback; selling pressure has intensified across risk assets. What's driving the decline? 1. Macroeconomic Pressure Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth and persistent inflation are complicating the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook. A resilient economy combined with sticky inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer, putting pressure on equities and crypto. 2. Key BTC Levels to Watch $76,#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Intel Q3 AI surges 78%, after-hours plunge 22%: Is the recovery story completely debunked?
This is the most divisive chip earnings report of the year: Q3 AI data center business skyrocketed 78%, GAAP operating margin rose from 5% to 15.3%, truly benefiting from the computing power dividend, with visible operational improvements. But the Q4 guidance directly bombed, with after-hours stock price plummeting 22%.
The core pain points are clear: Q4 revenue guidance is only $15-16 billion, a sequential decline; adjusted gross margin drops from 44.1% to 38%, EPS nearly halved. Management explicitly stated that the PC business weakness will last at least until the first half of next year, and factory shutdowns continue to drag down capacity.
The deeper issue is the harsh reality of industry chain divergence: upstream memory manufacturers are making huge profits from price hikes, while downstream terminals are squeezed by high costs and weak demand, and AI growth cannot fill the gap left by the traditional core business.
Market opinions are polarized: bulls believe it is an emotional overreaction, AI growth logic remains unchanged, and the sharp drop is a golden opportunity; bears judge the false recovery is exposed, AI cannot save the declining PC main business, and rebounds are just distribution traps. It is hard to say there is a full reversal now, so operations should not blindly bottom-fish. 24H performance: BTC: -2.39% ETH: -3.58% CORE: -13.28% Yet OKX account long-short ratios remain elevated: BTC: 2.10 ETH: 2.80 CORE: 2.64 However, the overall long/short distribution tells a different story: AssetLongsShortsRatio BTC48.53%51.47%0.9429 ETH47.88%52.12%0.9186 CORE46.55%53.45%0.8709 Here's the important distinction: Account-based ratios measure how many accounts are positioned long or short, while overall long/short distribution can reflect a different positioning metric. So, there i* Current Status: xQQQ (Nasdaq 100 tokenized ETF) is trading around $xQQQ 698.58, down 1.02% today as it tests local support near $697.41.
* Historical Context: xQQQ reached a recent peak high near $xQQQ 762.95 earlier this month before slumping downwards.
Across the daily trend, price slid from $xQQQ 762.95 through intermediate lower highs down toward $697.41.
* Prediction: Holding above the $695–$697 support zone could lead to a relief bounce back toward $710–$725. $KNC
Liquidity fragmentation remains a persistent challenge in decentralized trading. Kyber Network's aggregation and liquidity infrastructure targets the problem of finding efficient routes across decentralized markets. Yet routing technology must compete on execution quality, costs, and reliability—not just the number of venues it can access. For KNC, the crucial distinction is whether demand for the protocol's services translates into durable value for the token.$VIRTUAL
AI agents have attracted attention across crypto, yet attention can move faster than practical utility. Virtuals Protocol sits at the intersection of tokenization and autonomous AI agents, making sustainable economics an important question. Can agents generate recurring revenue or provide services people genuinely need? If activity depends mainly on speculative token launches, ecosystem growth may prove fragile when market sentiment weakens.$ICP
The real test for Internet Computer is whether developers can build applications that users prefer over conventional alternatives. Its on-chain computing approach offers a different vision from simply processing transactions faster. However, technical ambition alone does not guarantee adoption. Sustainable demand will depend on useful applications, dependable performance, developer retention, and an ecosystem that makes blockchain complexity less visible to everyday users.SanDisk delivered strong numbers, but the market is now questioning how sustainable that growth really is. Revenue reached $11 billion, up 23% quarter-over-quarter, while data center revenue surged 61%. Next-quarter revenue guidance also points to continued growth. Yet the stock initially surged to $1,378 before pulling back to $1,261.60 and recovering. The real debate is no longer about whether storage demand is strong. It's about how long it can remain this strong. Investors are reassessing th#加密行业协同守护资产安全
🚨 Alert! The crypto community is banding together for warmth, but this is no joke!
Seeing the trending topic “Crypto Industry Collaborates to Safeguard Asset Security” really stirs up mixed feelings. Veteran holders all understand the fear once dominated by Mentougou, various shady exchanges, and hacked projects—that was a bloody history paid for with real money and tears 😭.
In the past, everyone just minded their own business; if something went wrong, you were out of luck. Now the giants are finally joining forces, what does that mean?
👉 Shared blacklist, joint defense. If a hacker dares to move a single coin, the entire network tracks it. The whole industry’s defense system is upgrading from a "standalone version" to a "networked version," drastically shrinking scammers’ living space 🛡️.
But brothers, you still need to be strong yourself; no matter how secure the platform is, it’s afraid of you messing up! Pay attention 👇:
⚠️ Three anti-scam tips:
1️⃣ Don’t click random links: Airdrop claims, fake Twitter accounts—treat them all as scams.
2️⃣ Large holdings must be cold: Exchanges are for trading, not safekeeping! Especially for whales, get a hardware cold wallet ASAP.
3️⃣ Reject greed: If you see “decentralized finance with 1% daily interest,” block immediately; there’s no free lunch, only traps 🔪.
The industry is progressing, and our awareness must keep up. Protect your principal first, then you can dream of 100x gains! 💪$BTC Fear and Greed dropped to 30 — Fear $BNB
In just one day, the index fell from 51 points to 30 points, a drop of 21 points. Market sentiment quickly shifted after the Binance security incident.
According to the official announcement, Binance is investigating a possible incident originating from the hacking of a laptop belonging to one of its operations staff, which led to unauthorized withdrawals. The estimated total loss from this incident is about $6.3 billion, of which approximately $3 billion in assets have been frozen.
Binance announced it will use its SAFU fund and company capital to fully cover the losses, while reiterating that user funds remain secure.
This incident may shake people's confidence in centralized exchanges.$ETH Square is all talking about interest rate hikes, review: 2,174-2,379 range is valid; short position 20x, open at 2,233 stop loss 2,403 T1 2,174 T2 1,969; Auntie ETH is always upgrading, never lukewarm; actual drop 3.8%, 20x perspective magnifies about 0.8 times; short positions fear sudden rebounds the most, 20x tolerance only 5.0%, reverse volatility is fatal; main position violently withdraws to lock in profits, bottom position stop loss welded to open price, remaining positions float as free chips with the trend, withdrawing with money is the bottom line #crypto #ETH$DOOD – BULLISH SIGNAL 🟢
Entry: 0.001980–0.001990
Target 1: 0.002040
Target 2: 0.002100
Target 3: 0.002144
Stop Loss: 0.001915
Trend: Bullish momentum.
Price is holding above EMA20, showing buying strength. Breakout above 0.002040 could push higher.
⚠️ Manage risk.
Do not trade without entry confirmation.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 Today $BTC is moving quite interestingly. Since the theft-induced drop at 4 AM last night, it continued to fall at the morning open, directly testing the H4ob 765.
After hitting a new low at 10 AM, it started to rebound to 786, then dropped steadily after the settlement, currently down to 775.
Specifically:
1) The Asian session opened with a downward sweep to 765.
2) The monthly settlement at 4 PM, settlement price 78119.01. The maximum pain point was 78000, just 119 dollars off. Once the settlement ended, it dropped all the way to around 77.2k.
3) Regarding liquidations:
In the past 24 hours, $1.552 billion was liquidated across the network, almost all longs: $1.322 billion longs, $230 million shorts.
4) Regarding liquidity liquidation:
The recent large liquidity block is above at 795 to 797, about $122 million; below, there is no obvious bright zone, orders are scattered between 757 and 77.
Pre-market US stocks:
Intel's Q4 guidance was significantly below expectations, impacting semiconductors. Intel pre-market -25.27%, AMD -8%, Nvidia -2.7%.
So at the open, watch if Nvidia holds; if the chip issue is just Intel's own problem, bleeding stops at individual stocks, but if the entire chip chain continues to fall, then the Nasdaq will keep dropping, and BTC will hardly stand alone.
So currently, the bias is still downward; it depends on how far it falls, whether the 75 level breaks. For now, the support to watch is 757. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When macro signals conflict, do you reduce your position or wait and see?
Often, macro logic clashes: hawkish inflation data suppresses the market, while weakening employment fuels easing expectations; geopolitical tensions push oil prices up, yet funds flow back into risk assets. Both bulls and bears find support, and the market lacks a unified main theme.
My view: prioritize reducing positions rather than simply waiting.
Many people call it waiting, but essentially it’s passively holding positions. During contradictory signal phases, the market easily whipsaws, increasing volatility and continuously worsening trade odds.
Only when macro signals resonate is it suitable to add positions and leverage; during chaotic periods, the best choice is to shrink risk exposure, keep only light base positions, and avoid opening new one-sided trades.
No need to forcibly predict the final direction; patiently wait for signals to converge and for one logic to dominate before entering the market to compete. When you don’t understand, trading less is itself the best risk control.
Risk warning: macro expectations can reverse at any time, strictly control leverage.SNDKUSDT 🔴 SHORT WATCH
$SNDK is near 1,207.9, down 5.93%. Selling pressure is significant, but chasing a steep decline can be risky.
Entry: 1,208–1,218 after rejection
TP1: 1,195
TP2: 1,180
SL: 1,228
Wait for a weak bounce and bearish confirmation. A sharp recovery could trigger a reversal.#CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns A contract account at a certain address has accumulated profits of approximately $149 million; after reducing about $51.31 million in BTC short positions, it currently still holds 1,818.0894 BTC short positions, with a position value of about $141 million. Between 16:56 and 18:22 on October 30, it closed 660.40951 BTC short positions, with a closing amount of about $51.29 million and an average transaction price of about $77,663.88.
Address:
Oxb83de012dba672c76a7dbbbf3e459cb59d7d6e36
Loss: profit of about $149 million#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Another sudden black swan event, and the STH-MVRV sharply retraces to the midline again! Is history about to repeat itself?
Panda Bro's chart is indeed worth studying repeatedly!
In the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, BTC short-term holders' MVRV quickly retraced to the midline, followed by a strong market rebound.
On October 30, 2026, Binance experienced a major sudden security incident, and the STH-MVRV once again returned near the historical average.
Two external shocks, two similar on-chain structures, both reflecting the rapid compression of short-term holders' profit margins. I still maintain that BTC is in the early stage of a bull market, but the start of a bull market is never smooth!
Of course, historical similarity does not mean the outcome will be the same. The key going forward is whether the risk events can be properly resolved and whether the panic selling pressure can truly be absorbed.
The most important thing in a bull market is not that it never falls, but that after shocks, the market still has the ability to stand back up! $BTC