Orbit Post Sitemap
The Democratic Party really took control of both chambers, Senate 51 to 49, and flipped the House
Trump directly entered a lame-duck state
The most immediate consequence might be the "death sentence" for the CLARITY Act
TD Cowen's conclusion is very straightforward: the probability of passing in the next two years is zero; if it’s not resolved before the new Congress opens in January next year, it has to start over
The Senate Banking Committee will most likely switch to Elizabeth Warren, and the House Financial Services Committee to Maxine Waters, both of whom are not friendly towards crypto
Today $BTC fell below 76,000 then rebounded, the panic index went from 26 back to 34, but it’s still in fear territory
On November 4, US spot ETFs had net outflows for the third consecutive day, losing $115.6 million
$BTC bounced back to 78,500 due to overselling, but ETFs continue to bleed
Next, it depends on how many times the 76,000 line can hold under outflow pressure
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The most telling signal in crypto tonight isn't a price print — it's the lopsided borrow book. Across three majors, traders are paying to borrow coins to go long at a scale that dwarfs short-side demand, and one leveraged participant just used that imbalance as a reason to walk away from most of their exposure. The raw numbers make the crowding plain. On $BTC, long-side coin borrowing sits at 1,524.93 versus just 69.67 borrowed to short — a roughly 22-to-1 tilt. $ETH shows about 15,900 coins borThe bank finally admitted it, but the amount of money is still not acknowledged.
French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed to CoinDesk that it was attacked; fraudulent transactions are now under control.
Bitquery on-chain data only confirms $108.8 million USDC flowed out from Kraken, Crypto.com, and OKX within 21 hours. The majority was converted to Ether because Ether has no issuer-controlled freeze switch.
The bank says customer interests are fully protected, some transactions have been suspended, and authorities have been notified, but it did not specify whether the lost assets were fiat or crypto, nor how much was lost.
The bank admits the attack but not the amount. On-chain traceable amounts and reported figures always differ. The key to recovering funds is not whether the bank admits it, but what form the money has been converted into.
#Arkea #Hack #ZachXBT #USDCThe midterm election results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. Bitcoin's reaction last night was typical: it first dropped to $75,618, the lowest since mid-September, then pulled back to around $78,000 a few hours later.
I noticed two details. First, the lowest point almost touched the 50-week moving average (about $75,700), which has been supporting the price since September; second, the total long liquidations across the network were about $288 million, which is not large. This indicates panic, but not to the level of a stampede.
My view: this feels more like the "boot dropping" moment and should not be taken as a reversal signal. The uncertainty has disappeared, but regulatory bills will most likely be delayed, and there are still many sell orders above $78,000. Ordinary people should avoid chasing the rebound with leverage these days and first see if the weekly chart can hold the 50-week moving average. If it holds, this drop is just an emotional purge; if it doesn't, it's not too late to look for a lower position.
$BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH
In this midterm election, Trump has basically lost completely.
Now the sentiment in the crypto circle is visibly panicked; many people have already predicted a big drop in the crypto market.
The current vote count is very clear: the Democratic Party is leading by a large margin, firmly taking the House of Representatives, and also making a reverse comeback in the Senate. Next, the new Speaker will take office, holding investigative powers, and has long made harsh statements that the first thing upon taking office will be to strictly investigate three major issues.
The most fatal of these is a thorough investigation into the financial arrangements of the Trump family.
In the past two years, he has heavily invested in the crypto sector, including WLFI, the USD1 stablecoin, and the recently obtained banking license—all are on the investigation list. This means the crypto empire he built single-handedly is now facing a comprehensive liquidation.
This is also the core reason for the market panic.
For the entire previous year, the biggest policy backing for the crypto circle was on this side; everyone was playing with relaxed expectations. Now that Congress has changed, regulatory expectations have instantly reversed, naturally putting pressure on the market.
However, there is no need for blind panic.
Historical patterns show that after midterm elections, the balance of power between the White House and Congress makes it difficult for extreme new policies or extreme regulations to be implemented.
The negative news is real, but the probability of a direct crash is not high; it is more about emotional sell-offs and washing out floating chips. Patience to endure the volatility is key.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ZEC This market situation is interesting. A whale directly swept up 4 million coins and withdrew them, casually opening a 2x low-leverage long position on the contract. The spot is locked down and can't be dumped, the low-leverage long is obviously not afraid of a shakeout, it's almost like they have 'short squeeze incoming' written on their face. Plus, the old pool cross-chain locked over 20,000 coins, the bears are losing interest every day, what more could this structure need?
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇【Two extremes: AI keeps booming, $CORE don't rush to catch the falling knife (•̀ᴗ•́)و】
AI optical communication heats up again: Marvell plans a stock swap acquisition of Lumentum, giants heavily investing in underlying computing power, peripheral funds still hyped on AI infrastructure (￣▽￣)～■□～.
On the other hand, CORE's "asset recovery good news" turned into an emotional bomb. The hard fork recovered 68.15 million CORE, but the market dropped over 6% (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻. The transaction was not rolled back, but the attack record is permanently on-chain — technical patches can be applied, but trust cracks are hard to mend (｡•́︿•̀｡). More critically, these tokens only went into a recovery address and have not yet been distributed to affected users, the invisible selling pressure hangs like a sword overhead.
Combined with macro disturbances from the midterm elections, sentiment is fragile. CORE holders: first verify your holdings, reset stop losses, focus only on core support; only with support can recovery happen, break it and withdraw (•̀ᴗ•́)و. Don't treat "good news" as a buy signal, funds are running, don't rush to catch the flying knife (；一_一).
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) are often touted as "disrupting traditional cloud services" and flourishing. But beneath the surface, many networks do not run on real demand; instead, they rely on inflation subsidies to sustain false data.
Comparing these three projects:
$FIL: The former storage giant. The total network capacity is huge, but the actual enterprise-paid storage revenue is very low. Node (SP) earnings still heavily depend on block inflation rewards. Its token value capture is extremely reliant on the realization of the future narrative of "AI data storage."
$RNDR: The leader in the computing power track. The BME mechanism (burn and mint equilibrium) has been successfully implemented, and the mechanism design is sound. But the pain point is that the absolute income scale from AI inference is not yet large enough; the buy pressure from token burns relative to its circulating market value is insufficient to create a big wave.
$HNT: The veteran in IoT communication. Initially grew through hotspot mining subsidies, now transitioning to 5G networks. Its token capture depends on real network data consumption (Data Credits), with a clear path, but limited by the overall growth rate of the IoT sector.
Conclusion:
FIL relies on "inflation subsidies and new narratives"; RNDR has a "working mechanism but a small market size"; HNT is "seeking real communication demand." When buying DePIN, the hard metric is to look beyond node counts to real external payments and see how much remains after subsidies are deducted. Whale moving 10,000 BTC—is it a sign of an impending dump?
Suppose one day there’s a large on-chain transfer of 10,000 BTC; just looking at that number is quite intimidating.
Especially when someone says “whale activity,” it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that someone is preparing to sell.
But an on-chain transfer doesn’t equal an actual trade.
If it’s just the same entity reallocating assets between different wallets, no buying or selling may have occurred at all. Even if the funds are transferred to an exchange, it only means the capital might be ready for trading, not that it will definitely be sold.
So I think when seeing whale news, besides the amount, it’s more important to check who the sending and receiving addresses belong to.
However, on-chain address labels can also be inaccurate, so it’s still hard to judge the true intent based on a single transfer alone.
When you see a large whale transfer, do you immediately worry about a dump, or do you first check the wallet addresses? $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, and the crypto industry has delivered a very poor report card.
To start with the conclusion: $64 million did not buy the desired outcome. Sherrod Brown successfully won re-election, and the money the industry spent on his opponent did not work.
Looking at the specific losses: pro-crypto representatives Bryan Steil, Zach Nunn, and Ann Wagner all lost their seats, and Mike Lawler has also conceded defeat. This is not an individual issue but a collective failure of a whole group.
Why didn’t the money work? Voters’ sensitivity to crypto issues is far lower than to pressing topics like inflation and employment. The industry spent money on advertising, but on voting day, people were thinking about other things. The $64 million bought exposure, not votes.
What does this mean for the market? Policy expectations will be pushed back. The pro-crypto forces in this Congress are weaker than anticipated, so the narrative of pushing legislation forward won’t have a timetable in the short term. Part of the pricing of $BTC and $ETH originally included a premium for regulatory easing, which now needs to be discounted. Highly volatile assets like $SOL react more noticeably when sentiment cools.
But it’s not all bad. Losing an election doesn’t mean the issue disappears; the industry’s political donation capability has been proven. What’s really worth considering is: who should this money be given to for it to be effective? If the same results keep happening over several cycles, the industry may need to change its way of engaging in politics rather than just increasing the budget.I bought $CRCL thinking USDC +25% = money printing.
I was wrong.
Reserve income only +5%. Coinbase eats >60%. Rates falling. $900M redeemed in a week.
I learned: growth without margin is just volume.
I'm still holding into earnings tomorrow, but not blind anymore.
Are you holding or selling?
$CRCL
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Is $BTC going to be rescued by Trump again? Where exactly is the funding coming from?
The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the Republican side is under considerable pressure, causing market sentiment to fluctuate back and forth. The non-farm payroll report is just ahead on Friday, and the current rebound clearly lacks volume, so rushing to chase the highs is not recommended.
Looking at past patterns, one to two months after the midterm elections often present good opportunities for positioning. But in the short term, the focus remains on the non-farm payrolls, as this data will directly influence the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. September's non-farm payroll added only 29,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The market now expects October's additions to be between 55,000 and 60,000.
The current market consensus is that short-term rate cuts are basically off the table; the core concern is how long high interest rates will be maintained.
However, persistently high interest rates are not set in stone. If subsequent employment and economic data continue to weaken and pressure accumulates, the Fed is more likely to adjust its policy later. The crypto market is especially sensitive to liquidity expectations; often, before real funds enter, the market already speculates on rate cuts, which can easily trap traders.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ETH The big dip down to 76000 this morning definitely shouldn't be shorted; it's a very strong support. You can only short if the support fails and the rebound can't go up. I don't understand the idea behind shorting at 76000. I also said this morning that you can go long with a stop loss and a light position on $BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
【Which indicator do you value most when judging bullish or bearish data?】
I value the "Holder Cost Basis Distribution" indicator the most. Based on this indicator, long-term positions have repeatedly bottomed BTC at $17,000, with the ultimate bear bottom at $15,000.
$BTC holder price range construction: We can observe holders' breakeven points through the cost basis distribution, which groups prices according to Bitcoin's last movement.
Long-term holders (investors holding coins for over 155 days) hold a massive stake of about 4 million BTC, with purchase prices between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly bought in 2025.
More than half of the tokens they hold were bought at prices higher than the current price. If the price rebounds to around $85,000, many of these holders may sell to break even.$BTC ETF outflows reached $1.16 billion, with institutions saying it's a short-term sentiment weakness.
However, open interest rose 3.5% in 24 hours and the price increased by 1.93%, indicating new long positions are entering, not just a simple retreat.
The $79,742 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 5 times, and broken through twice. I'm watching this level closely; if it doesn't hold, I won't chase longs.
The US nonfarm payroll data for November 4 is about to be released, and the market may not follow historical patterns. Do you think it will break above $79,742 first or pull back to $77,601 first? #Чистый отток средств из спотового биткойн-ETF в США за два дня превысил 1 миллиард долларов 🚨 Apple's earnings report seems like a big win, but the market isn't buying it! The real risk might be hidden in next quarter's gross margin.
$AAPL Apple's Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, but the stock price dropped after the earnings release.
The question is: with such good results, why are investors selling?
The answer may be just one: the market is not looking at how much was earned in the past, but how much can be earned in the future.
What is most worth watching this time is Apple's guidance for next quarter's gross margin.
📉 1. Gross margin decline is what the market is truly worried about
Apple expects the December quarter gross margin to be 45%–46%, a clear drop from this quarter's 47.9%, and below analysts' previous expectations.
This means that even if revenue continues to grow, profit margins may be squeezed.
📉 2. Rising memory prices are transmitting cost pressure
The CFO clearly stated that memory prices are currently at unprecedented highs.
Previously accumulated low-cost inventory is gradually being used up, and cost pressures may continue in the coming quarters.
On top of that, investments related to Siri AI are starting to be accounted for, so Apple faces not only sales growth challenges but also how to maintain profit margins.
📉 3. Service business growth is slowing, another profit engine is cooling down
The service business growth guidance for next quarter is slowing to 8%–9%.
Although the service business still has relatively high profit margins, the slowdown in growth also means that Apple's hopes to further improve through the service business are diminishing 🔥The most alarming signal has appeared: both BTC and ETH are holding near critical levels, but institutional funds have not shown active inflows! BTC is hovering around 78,000, ETH is tugging around 2,300, prices have not crashed drastically, yet there is also a lack of strong upward momentum. 📉 Previously, BTC spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $643 million, and ETH ETFs have experienced outflows for several consecutive trading days, with a single-day net outflow of about $139.7 million on November 2, mostly contributed by BlackRock's ETHA.
🧠 This indicates the market is currently more in a risk digestion phase rather than having re-entered a strong buying stage. BTC's rebound may partly be due to short covering, but whether sustained incremental funds appear depends on subsequent spot trading and ETF flows. The 78,556–78,836 range is a short-term resistance zone to watch for BTC, while ETH needs to be monitored for an effective breakthrough of 2,350–2,370. ⚠️
Additionally, BTC's near-term options implied volatility has risen from about 43.5% to about 51%, meaning the market's expectation of short-term volatility has clearly increased. Policy uncertainty after the U.S. elections and employment data may continue to affect risk appetite. 🧭 Before funds truly flow back, I prefer to control positions and wait for confirmation rather than guessing which bullish candle signals a reversal. When do you think institutional funds will re-enter? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Don't just focus on the results of the U.S. midterm elections; what’s truly worth studying is the timing overlap between them and BTC's four-year halving cycle! In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the three midterm elections all occurred during bear markets, and BTC continued to decline after the elections before gradually starting a new recovery phase. 📊 The lows were approximately 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days from election day, respectively, which on the surface suggests the cycle bottoms seem to appear earlier each time.
But this does not mean the elections are the switch for market downturns. The years 2014, 2018, and 2022 were accompanied by different industry shocks, especially the 2022 FTX collapse, which had an independent and significant impact on the market. 🧠 Therefore, the halving cycle and political cycle can be studied together but should not be conflated, nor should the three historical events be treated as an inevitable script.
⚠️ What’s most special about 2026 is that BTC’s phase low already appeared early in July, several months ahead of the November election. This could mean the market has completed part of its adjustment early, or it could indicate that the structure of this cycle has changed. Tonight, rather than guessing whether the market will drop again after the election, it’s better to focus on key lows, capital flows, and trend confirmation. Do you trust the four-year cycle more, or do you believe institutional funds will rewrite history this time? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Both chambers flipped blue overnight, and the crypto sector's policy tailwind is about to be discounted
The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out: Voting took place on November 3 local time, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. The Associated Press confirmed the Democrats secured at least 218 seats in the House and also flipped the Senate blue, resulting in both chambers changing majority control. Trump's second half of the term officially becomes a divided government, with the new Congress taking office in January next year.
For the crypto sector, the significance lies not in who won, but that the tailwind is gone. Over the past two years, crypto benefited from the White House and Congress being controlled by the same party: deregulation, legislative progress, all green lights. Going forward, with legislative and oversight power switching sides, the pace of digital asset-related bills and personnel appointments will face more hurdles, and uncertainty will clearly increase.
But I’m not strictly bearish. Divided government is best at gridlock; with fiscal policy stalled, liquidity expectations might actually loosen. On election night, $BTC first dropped below 76,000 then bounced back above 78,000, reflecting the market betting on both sides.
My stance: The news only changes my mid-term assumptions, not my short-term tactics. Don’t overfill your positions; keep doing what the charts indicate, and don’t chase gains or panic sell based on a single news item.
All of the above is my personal market sense and plan, not investment advice.
What do you think—does the chambers flipping blue mean the crypto sector’s downside is fully priced in, or is the tailwind just over? 👇#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Senate flipped blue, and CLARITY's plans need to be redone
The most crucial piece of the U.S. midterm elections puzzle has been settled: The Associated Press called Iowa, where Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Ashley Hinson to claim the 51st Senate seat, officially securing Democratic control of the Senate. Other flips that night included Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas, and Maine—Texas's Talarico became the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988, and Ohio's Brown also won.
For the crypto community, the most painful part was the Ohio race: the industry spent about $176 million across more than 100 districts this cycle, with over $50 million spent in Ohio alone opposing Brown, yet Brown still won. The money couldn't buy the seat back.
Don't be too optimistic about legislation yet: On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed a procedural Senate vote 49 to 50, short of the 60-vote threshold; even with a change in majority, it won't automatically become easier. The more likely scenario is that figures like Warren and Brown, who have been tough on crypto, will first lead oversight agendas, with hearings and subpoenas coming before legislation.
With the Senate changing hands, the crypto community's question shifts from "Will the bill pass?" to "Which hearing hurdle will come first?" ZEC's trading volume in the last hour surged nearly 3.7 times, yet the closing price dropped by $2.45.
On OKX, the spot price closed at $1286.67 between 17:00 and 18:00, down from $1289.12 in the previous hour; trading volume rose from $1.8134 million to $6.7175 million. At 18:00, the nominal contract open interest was about $190.33 million, an increase of approximately $4.433 million compared to 17:00. At 18:19, the current price was around $1304.90.
My judgment is that the increase in both trading volume and open interest is significant, but the closing price for that hour did not keep up. Whether the current upward momentum holds until the hour mark will better indicate if the buying pressure can sustain. The total open interest does not distinguish between new longs or shorts.
I am more focused on whether the price between 18:00 and 19:00 can close above the previous hour's high of $1292.32. If it falls back below $1286.67 while open interest continues to rise, the recent upward move will need to be reassessed.
$ZEC Let's calculate: comparing $500 million to over $1 billion, the former is less than half of the latter, but investment is not the same as revenue. When I saw this news, my first reaction was to break down the scope and not equate a large amount directly with a big problem.
① According to reports, Robert Garcia, who will serve as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, stated that Trump's crypto-related business has generated over $1 billion in revenue and said he will examine the family's crypto transactions and other business dealings. This figure indicates the significance of the subject under review, but it is currently his statement and cannot replace the conclusion of an investigation.
② The Democrats previously focused on a member of the UAE royal family who invested about $500 million in World Liberty Financial last year. My focus is that this company is still applying for a nationwide bank license that requires approval from relevant U.S. Treasury departments. The clarity of the funding relationships and the approval process is more critical than the amount itself.
③ The Democrats plan to start inquiries and subpoenas related to the companies and donors from February next year. This is the timeline for subsequent procedures, not proof of any problems found; if the inquiries affect license approval, then the uncertainty of business progress may increase, which is my speculation.
My judgment: this is somewhat negative for Trump's family-related crypto business but not enough to be bearish for the entire industry. I would pay more attention to investigation evidence and license progress rather than headline volume. Which indicator do you usually value most: funding sources, investigation evidence, or license approval progress? "The boot has landed, but that doesn't mean buying has returned"
With the midterm elections concluded, the crypto market first played out "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The Democrats' sweep of both chambers briefly ignited fears of tighter regulation, causing BTC to drop below $76,000 and ETH to dip near $2,225 (´･ω･`). Then, as the results became clear and uncertainty faded, short sellers covered, pushing BTC back up to around $78,468 and ETH recovering above $2,300 to $2,326, a seemingly lively V-shaped rebound (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
However, this feels more like an emotional swing rather than a confirmed trend. The Democratic victory had already been priced in by Polymarket at over 75%, with over $660 million in BTC options traded on election day, about $420 million of which were calls, indicating bets on "bad news being fully priced in" (・∀・). The issue is that spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million; BTC's rebound mainly relied on short covering, with no significant new buying entering the market.
Therefore, $78,000 and $2,300 seem more like psychological stop-loss levels for both bulls and bears. Holding these levels does not equal buying returning (￣▽￣). If capital flows do not turn positive going forward, the rebound may still be just a short-term correction.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
The voting results are in, marking a critical watershed for the AI theme in the US stock market.
The market’s core question is simple: Can Trump’s all-in AI strategy continue moving forward?
Previously, Trump’s AI strategy centered on loosening regulations, accelerating data center network approvals, and advancing the $500 billion Starlink AI infrastructure, easing restrictions on computing power, chip, and cloud providers. This was the key policy backing for the current AI capital expenditure cycle. But now, with the change in Congress’s composition, the biggest variable has emerged: executive orders can be pushed, but budget, bill approvals, and energy and land review powers lie with Congress.
The conclusion is clear: The broad AI direction won’t be overturned, but the pace of progress will be significantly slowed.
A completely unrestricted acceleration model is hard to replicate, and the difficulty of implementing strong fiscal stimulus has increased; however, the underlying logic of Silicon Valley giants, computing power demand, and the global AI race remains intact. Regulation will shift from "full liberalization" to "conditional approval."
Impact on US tech stocks:
In the short term, expectations will be cut; high-valuation AI computing power and semiconductors are prone to volatile battles, and capital will first realize the premium from policy dividends;
In the medium term, there will be differentiation. Targets with orders already in place, such as computing hardware, energy support, and data centers, will be more resilient; AI application targets relying purely on policy expectations to tell their story will continue to face valuation pressure.
In the long term, the AI capital expenditure cycle is not over; it is just shifting from "policy-driven" to "performance-driven," with increased volatility.SNDK at $1145, do you dare to catch it?
Revenue surged 378%, but the stock price crashed 13% in one day, halving from 2300 to 1145 — is the explosive performance of SNDK a golden opportunity or a flying knife? Just now, 1050 held.
First, look at the surface: explosive earnings report, but the stock crashed.
Q1 FY2027 revenue $11.031 billion, up 378% year-over-year, up 23% quarter-over-quarter; EPS $49.51, significantly beating expectations; gross margin 85.1%; data center revenue $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter; $5 billion buyback; long-term agreements with minimum committed revenue of about $93.9 billion. All positives, right?
But after the earnings report, the stock dropped over 13% in one day, falling from the June high of 2300 down to 1145, a 35% drop in a month and 13% in a week. The market isn’t ignoring the results; it has already priced in the earnings. Think it’s an overreaction? Hold on, read on.
First point: Why did the stock crash despite explosive earnings? The market fears not the earnings but the "growth slowdown."
Year-over-year revenue growth of 378% sounds scary, but quarter-over-quarter growth is retreating from a higher level; consumer segment (PC/mobile) revenue is under pressure, high prices suppress demand; peers like Kioxia warn limited room for consumer price increases. The market is buying not the present but the next quarter.
What’s more painful: stocks rise on expectations, not facts. Before earnings, it rose from 36 to 2300, over 60 times, the good news was already digested. When earnings came out, institutions’ first reaction wasn’t "Wow, amazing," but "Is there anything better?" — no, so they sell first.
This is traditional finance play: all good news priced in becomes bad news. If you trade it with a meme mindset, you’ll get hurt badly.
Second point: The $93.9 billion minimum committed revenue is not just a promise.
Long-term agreements (NBM) signed with multiple customers cover about half of FY2027 and two-thirds of FY2028 bit production, with minimum committed revenue around $93.9 billion. In plain terms: more than half of the next two years’ revenue is already booked.
Moreover, the company is debt-free, cash-rich, with adjusted free cash flow about $5.7 billion, profit margin over 50%, and this quarter repurchased about $5 billion. This is not a company short on money; it’s a money-printing machine.
AI data center storage demand (HBM + enterprise SSD) is expected to continue through 2027-2028, with supply tight and hard to ease quickly. SNDK is a pure NAND/SSD player, data center accounts for over 40%, deeply cooperating with the three major US hyperscalers, holding strong pricing power. The AI storage shovel seller’s business is intact; what’s bad is the stock chips.
Third point: Technicals show oversold rebound but no mid-term reversal.
Fell from 2300 to 1145, a roughly 50% retracement. Daily RSI rebounded from oversold but remains weak; MACD death cross with shrinking histogram shows signs of bottoming but no golden cross; moving averages in bearish alignment, price below MA20/50. Short term is repair, mid-term is a downtrend channel.
Support: 1050-1100 (recent lows + psychological level) → 1000 (structural break)
Resistance: 1180-1200 (first line) → 1250-1300 (dense trading zone) → 1500+
Only a volume-backed hold above 1200 counts as a reversal; failure means just an oversold bounce.
Also note: 8-for-1 stock split, record date around November 9, trading starts around November 20. Volatility will amplify before and after the split, liquidity may be speculated, but leverage will be swept back and forth.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide
On one side:
Revenue up 378% YoY, gross margin 85%, data center +61%
$93.9 billion minimum committed revenue, more than half of two years’ revenue booked
Debt-free + $5 billion buyback + $5.7 billion free cash flow
Halved from 2300 to 1145, RSI oversold recovery
AI storage supercycle not over
On the other side:
Quarter-over-quarter growth slowing, consumer segment weak
Valuation still requires high growth to justify, PE 8-9x not cheap
Bearish moving averages, mid-term downtrend channel
Post-earnings volume sell-off, selling pressure remains
Volatility amplified around stock split, leverage easily swept
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term (1-3 days):
Light long positions at 1120-1145, stop loss below 1080 (exit if below recent low). First target 1180-1200, sell half; if breaks 1200, look to 1250. Position size 5-10% of capital, leverage ≤5-10x.
Conservative mid-term (1-4 weeks):
Wait for pullback to strong support at 1050-1100 to build positions gradually, or wait for daily volume-backed hold above 1200 to chase. Stop loss below 1000, target 1300-1500. Position size 10-20%, build in batches. Reduce leverage before and after split, reduce positions before macro events (nonfarm payroll, FOMC, semiconductor peer earnings).
Bearish view:
If rebound at 1180-1200 meets resistance with volume and bearish candle, light short positions, stop loss above 1220, target 1100-1050.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023 —
99% think "It’s risen too much, wait for a pullback," but when pullback comes, they don’t buy, then it rallies back and they regret.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK “The boot dropping” does not equal funds returning
After the results of the U.S. midterm elections were announced, the crypto market first went through a stress test, then quickly saw short covering. The Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and concerns about tighter regulation once crushed risk appetite: Bitcoin fell below $76,000, Ethereum dipped to $2,225. But once the results were no longer uncertain, the market trading logic immediately shifted from "fear of bad news" to "bad news fully priced in," with Bitcoin making a V-shaped recovery to $78,468, approaching the $79,000 mark; Ethereum reclaimed $2,300, closing at $2,326.
The fuel for this rebound was not the election itself. The Democratic victory had long been priced in by Polymarket at over 75%, what was truly bought back was certainty. On election day, Bitcoin options block trades exceeded $660 million, with about $420 million in call buys, some funds clearly betting on a short-term rebound after the results were finalized.
But price reclaiming key levels does not mean incremental funds have returned. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million; Bitcoin's rebound also came more from short covering rather than sustained new buying. The $78,000 and $2,300 levels currently look more like psychological stop-loss lines for bulls and bears rather than trend confirmation signals. The market has temporarily stopped falling, but after "buying the expectation, selling the fact," the real answer from funds is still awaited.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ETH has been stronger than BTC this afternoon. The lowest point on the hourly candle at 11 AM Beijing time dropped to 2,226, then started to hold above 2,300 in the afternoon, just now reaching a high of 2,330, currently around 2,325, up 4.4% from the low, and +2.4% in 24h.
Binance ETH contract open interest rose from 5.34 billion to 5.50 billion USD in 24 hours, while BTC only increased from 7.73 billion to 7.74 billion. The new leverage is basically all on ETH.
Swolecharts reports that from 0:00 to 10:00 UTC today, ETH liquidations totaled 47.4 million USD, with longs at 27.2 million and shorts at 20.15 million. Shorts have also started to be squeezed in these hours.
$BTC also broke through the large holder's liquidation price of 78,192 at noon, reaching a high of 78,586, now at 78,480, with both sides' fees at +0.01%.
My view is that ETH is currently pushing upward by increasing positions. Undertow statistics show that on Hyperliquid, there are 49.2 million USD worth of short liquidations pressing above the price, while long liquidations below are only 14.4 million. Short-term shorts are more uncomfortable, but since yesterday ETH ETF still had a net outflow of 85.35 million USD and spot hasn't caught up, I don't consider this a reversal yet.🔥What BTC truly lacks is not an election result, but the certainty that can reassure institutions to enter the market! Today, the price hovers around $77,000, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 33, and long liquidations totaled $211 million in the past 24 hours. 📊 These data indicate that market sentiment remains fragile; even a slight pause in the rebound could force leveraged longs to exit.
Looking at the CLARITY Act, the Senate procedural vote on September 15 failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, resulting in 49 votes in favor and 50 against. The controversies focus on ethical constraints, stablecoin yield arrangements, and banking competition issues. A change in leadership and agenda priorities in the committee due to turnover does not mean the existing disputes will disappear. 🧩 If negotiations fail to reach a compromise, the legislative certainty the market expects may be further delayed; however, regulators may still advance some matters through rulemaking.
Therefore, do not treat the election directly as a buy signal for BTC. Whether ETF funds have stopped falling and whether macro interest rate expectations ease are the key points to watch next. ⚠️ In the short term, BTC first looks at $76,000; if it breaks down effectively, the focus below is $74,000–$74,900; only by reclaiming $78,000 can the weak structure improve. Do you think the next rally requires a policy breakthrough, or is a capital inflow enough? 🔥No matter how lively the election results are, they can't catch the sell-off for BTC! Today, BTC is still hovering near $77,000, with a slight 24-hour increase of 0.28%, but the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 33, indicating market sentiment has entered the fear zone. What’s more concerning is that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $282 million, with long positions accounting for $211 million. 📉 The price not plunging sharply does not mean the leverage risk has disappeared.
Many people pin their hopes on which party controls Congress in the U.S., but the deadlock over the CLARITY Act shows that legislation can’t be completed with a simple majority change. On September 15, the Senate procedural vote failed 49 to 50 to advance the bill; ethical rules, stablecoin yields, and banking concerns remain negotiation obstacles. 🧠 Even if congressional seats change, further negotiation, revision, and voting are needed, so legislative progress is uncertain.
Meanwhile, ETF fund flows and interest rate expectations are more direct short-term variables. If institutions continue to reduce positions, election sentiment alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise. ⚠️ I will focus on whether ETF funds can stop outflows after the non-farm payroll data release and whether BTC can regain and hold above 78,000. On the downside, watch 76,000 first; if broken, then pay attention to 74,000–74,900. Today, do you trust political narratives more, or real capital flows? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Stop treating the U.S. elections as a BTC price pump button! Whether the Democrats or Republicans hold the advantage affects the political arithmetic of the future Congress, but it won't directly create buying pressure in the market. BTC has been tugging around $77,000 today, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 33. There were $282 million liquidations across the network in 24 hours, including $211 million losses on long positions.📉 The price seems to fluctuate only slightly, but leveraged funds have already paid the price.
What really deserves attention is the CLARITY Act. The Senate procedural vote on September 15 failed to pass, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, still short of the 60 votes needed to advance. The controversy is not only about the regulatory framework but also includes ethics provisions for public officials, stablecoin yield structures, and conflicts of interest between banks and the crypto industry.🧩 Changing the majority party does not mean these divisions will automatically disappear.
Continuous ETF outflows and tight macro interest rate expectations are the key reasons for current capital hesitation.⚠️ In the short term, watch for support at $76,000; if broken, focus on $74,000–$74,900; on the rebound, see if funds truly flow back. Elections provide a long-term narrative, but daily ETF subscriptions and redemptions more directly affect buying and selling forces. Do you think BTC will hold $76,000 first or continue downward to find support? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Yes, but profits will be significantly diluted. Expansion in scale (increase in USDC circulation) can indeed bring more reserve income such as U.S. Treasury interest, but this does not mean net profits will surge proportionally.
· The key obstacle is "cost": Circle needs to pay very high "distribution costs" (revenue sharing) to major channels like Coinbase. In addition, the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut expectations will directly reduce its interest income.🔥If historical patterns continue to hold, is BTC's cycle bottom arriving earlier each year? Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, the U.S. midterm elections all occurred near the end of Bitcoin bear markets, with the actual cycle lows appearing about 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the elections, respectively. 📉 From the time intervals, there is indeed a trend of gradual shortening, which is why many cycle analysts keep a close eye on the midterm elections.
However, we cannot conclude that the fourth low will definitely come earlier just because the previous three lows have moved closer to the election date. Each market cycle has its own variables: 2014 had exchange platform crises, 2018 experienced an industry winter, and 2022 saw the FTX incident. The halving cycle provides an observational framework, but liquidity and sudden risks can also alter the trend. ⚠️
What’s more noteworthy is that the BTC phase low in 2026 already appeared in July, about four months before the November election. Whether this time the bottom is early or there will be a second dip later cannot be determined yet. 🧭 I prefer to observe whether the low holds, if trading volume recovers, and whether the long-term moving averages can be reclaimed. Do you think this round of adjustment has already ended early? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥Three U.S. midterm elections, three times BTC continued to test new lows after the elections. This timing pattern deserves serious study! After the 2014 election, it took about 71 days for BTC to hit the cycle low; about 39 days after 2018; about 13 days after 2022.📊 Looking only at these three data sets, the timing of the lows does seem to be gradually advancing, as if each bear market completes its final panic sell-off after the election results are settled.
But here is a key issue: coincidence in timing does not mean the election caused the decline. In 2014, there was the aftermath of the Mt.Gox incident; in 2018, there was an internal crisis in the crypto market; in 2022, the FTX collapse was an additional factor.🧠 What really drives BTC to bottom may be the combined effects of the halving cycle, liquidity, industry risks, and the macro environment, rather than a single political event.
🌍 In 2026, a different situation appeared: the phase low already occurred in July, earlier than the November election. This suggests the market may have completed part of its adjustment early, or it might just be a temporary low that still needs to be verified later. When discussing cycles today, we cannot just look at historical numbers; we must also consider price structure and capital flows. Do you think this time will continue the pattern of the previous three rounds, or will it take a completely different path? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥 Dữ liệu lịch sử cảnh báo BTC có thể giảm sâu thậm chí 65k sau vụ hack Binance - Theo thống kê được chia sẻ, mức giảm trung vị của BTC sau 10 vụ hack lớn trên các sàn CEX là 10,14%, cao hơn mức giảm hiện tại 5,61%. - Nếu diễn biến lặp lại, kịch bản được dự báo là BTC có thể lùi về 72.998 USD trước ngày 7/11. - Kịch bản xấu hơn, tương tự sau vụ hack Bybit, là vùng 65.231 USD. 🫡🫡🫡 Lưu ý, đây là kịch bản dự báo dựa trên dữ liệu lịch sử, không phải mục tiêu giá chắc chắn. Các vụ hack trước đâAn institution focused on data changing its name often says more about the trend than a research report.
L2BEAT, which has been tracking Ethereum Layer 2 for years, has officially renamed itself ETHBEAT, expanding its scope from Layer 2 to the entire Ethereum ecosystem. The name has changed, and so has the coverage: it will continue monitoring L2s while increasing research on privacy, interoperability, tokens, zero-knowledge proofs, and native Rollups, and will also explore liquid staking in the future.
But the real signal is not in expanding categories, but in the evaluation criteria. Its research focus has shifted to judging whether a project inherits Ethereum's core security properties—censorship resistance, open source, privacy, security—and how many intermediaries users still have to trust. The accompanying move is the launch of the CROPS guide, which includes projects that meet these principles.
In recent years, Layer 2s competed on being cheap and fast, with valuation justified by high TPS. Now the yardstick has changed: for the same project, the question is how much trust you place in whom.
This is a plus for $ETH itself, as the mainnet's security properties have become the anchor for the entire ecosystem; for Layer 2 tokens like $ARB and $OP, it's a retest—scaling dividends have mostly been absorbed, and the remaining premium must be earned through credibility.
One point worth pondering: while everyone is racing to be faster, some are starting to compete on who requires less trust from you. 🔥Three U.S. midterm elections, three times BTC continued to test new lows after the elections. This timing pattern deserves serious study! After the 2014 election, it took about 71 days for BTC to hit the cycle low; about 39 days after 2018; about 13 days after 2022.📊 Looking only at these three data sets, the timing of the lows does seem to be gradually advancing, as if each bear market completes its final panic sell-off after the election results are settled.
But here is a key issue: coincidence in timing does not mean the election caused the decline. In 2014, there was the aftermath of the Mt.Gox incident; in 2018, there was an internal crisis in the crypto market; in 2022, the FTX collapse was an additional factor.🧠 What really drives BTC to bottom may be the combined effects of the halving cycle, liquidity, industry risks, and the macro environment, rather than a single political event.
🌍 In 2026, a different situation appeared: the phase low already occurred in July, earlier than the November election. This suggests the market may have completed part of its adjustment early, or it might just be a temporary low that still needs to be verified later. When discussing cycles today, we cannot just look at historical numbers; we must also consider price structure and capital flows. Do you think this time will continue the pattern of the previous three rounds, or will it take a completely different path? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Solana official released a chart: on Monday, tokenized stock single-day trading volume was about $657 million, more than double any day since September. Backpack Securities alone contributed about $598 million, accounting for about 91%; xStocks about $56 million, following behind.
Strong trading volume does not mean the order book is already decentralized. It is more likely that a single issuer maximized weekend and after-hours flow, while other issuers temporarily lag behind. The impressive numbers indicate demand exists but also show that depth is still tied to one desk. Don't take the peak as the normal depth.
If within seven days Backpack's share remains above 85%, or tokenized stock daily trading falls below $320 million, treat this as a pulse peak, not the market norm. Snapshot around 18:08 Beijing time, Binance spot SOL about $93.19, 24h approximately +0.9%.
$SOL
#SOL #Solana #Tokenized#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Friends, be rational. With the Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress, it will be difficult to have a smooth one-sided market rally going forward. Previously, the market had been pricing in a main storyline: the White House and Congress both controlled by the Republicans, with tax cuts, loose fiscal policy, and crypto-friendly regulation, supporting the upward imagination for the Nasdaq tech sector and Bitcoin in this round. Now the situation has completely reversed, with Congress gaining balancing power, making it much harder to advance the loose agenda originally planned by Trump. The AI sector is the first to feel the pressure. Committees led by the Democrats will increase hearings and regulatory scrutiny on large tech companies; expectations for computing power subsidies and tax incentives are being discounted. This is also the core reason why Nasdaq futures plunged more than 2% in early trading. Capital is immediately repricing the premium of the "Trump trade," and the volatility of high-valuation tech assets will continue to be amplified. The situation is even more delicate for crypto assets. The originally expected clear legislation on stablecoins and digital assets will be delayed. The Democratic Party's internal regulatory stance on the crypto industry is cautious, and the SEC's strong regulatory approach will receive support at the congressional level, compressing the window for favorable industry legislation. Of course, the president retains veto power and will not directly issue extreme bans; this is not purely all negative but means the positive expectations disappear and more negotiation ensues. Looking at the fiscal side, with the tug-of-war between the two parties, large-scale fiscal expansion is unlikely to be implemented; deficits and bond issuance pace will be constrained, and U.S. Treasury yield volatility will become more frequent. Liquidity expectations will no longer be one-sided, compounded by the FederalThe market isn't lacking liquidity. The bigger question is where that capital is willing to take risk.
BTC is showing healthier positioning, with $136.6M in spot inflows against $79.88M in contract outflows. That suggests genuine buying interest without an aggressive reliance on leverage.
ETH is attracting money from both sides, but the $156M in contract inflows compared with $88M in spot suggests leverage is doing much of the heavy lifting. #DemocratsWinCongress 🔥The Democratic Party has won control of both chambers of Congress. What deserves the most attention next is not just whether Trump's policies will be obstructed, but how the market will reprice political risk! The U.S. midterm elections show a clear shift: the Republican Party has lost control of both chambers, and the Democratic Party has gained more space for hearings, investigations, and oversight. 🌐There are indeed capital donations, industry lobbying, and interest group influences behind U.S. politics, but these complex relationships cannot be simplified as a certain group controlling both parties; such claims lack reliable evidence.
🔎Will Elon Musk become a key focus of a new round of congressional investigations? Democratic lawmakers have already signaled this possibility, and future scrutiny may revolve around DOGE, government contracts, and potential conflicts of interest. However, whether the investigation uncovers any issues depends on evidence and formal conclusions; premature judgments are not appropriate.
📉On the crypto side, I am more concerned about BTC at 74,800–75,000. If this level does not hold, the market may shift from weak consolidation to a more obvious downtrend; if support is effective, there is still a chance to continue consolidating. Those adding positions around 76,500–77,500 should not pin their hopes on a single rebound. Borrowing to add positions is especially risky, as leverage can turn a normal pullback into an unbearable loss. ⚠️Will you continue to observe tonight, or are you already preparing to adjust your positions? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥The Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of Congress, changing the power dynamics in Washington, and the crypto community will need to reassess risks accordingly! This election is not just a simple win or loss for the two parties; it also involves the redistribution of policy directions, corporate interests, capital support, and congressional oversight authority. 🌍 Reducing complex politics to a certain group controlling both parties lacks reliable evidence and overlooks the real institutional and interest struggles that influence policy.
🧭 What’s worth watching next is whether the Democratic Party will formally push for investigations into Musk, DOGE, and related government contracts and conflicts of interest. Some Democratic lawmakers have already proposed investigation directions, but whether it will be launched, the scope of the investigation, and whether a chain of evidence can be formed still require time to verify.
📉 The real danger signal for the market is whether BTC can hold the 74,800–75,000 range. If this area is effectively broken down, selling pressure may continue to expand; if it holds, the price may still fluctuate repeatedly within this key range. Funds entering or adding positions near 76,500–77,500 should not only think about a rebound to break even but also calculate how much drawdown they can bear. Especially avoid borrowing money to add positions or using high leverage to bet on policy news. Do you think this election will change the risk appetite of the crypto market? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 美国中期选举临近，市场预期国会走向分裂，CLARITY 法案此前已经在参议院停滞，民主党影响力抬升可能让加密相关立法节奏放缓、争议增多。行政权仍由特朗普掌握，所以即便民主党拿下众议院，现有监管执法基调不会立刻反转，这种政策格局让市场很难一次性定价完毕。 比特币（$BTC）价格回落至约77000，4小时走势转弱，76500附近是重要支撑。如果这个支撑失守，选举带来的不确定性会放大抛压；在这之前，资金更倾向降低敞口而非加仓。 值得留意的是，不同币种对政策预期的敏感度并不一样。以太坊（$ETH）、SOL（$SOL）、XRP（$XRP）、DOGE（$DOGE）相比比特币（$BTC）更容易受到监管时间表变化的冲击。市场博弈的不是选举结果本身，而是最终席位和前期预期之间的差值。民主党拿下众议院基本已经被 price in，参议院才是超预期变数所在。如果任意一方出人意料地拿下两院，$ETH、$SOL、$XRP、$DOGE 的定价都会迎来重估。短期交易重心优先盯紧 76500 这一线能否守住，选举消息的影响，或许还不如这个支撑位的有效性重要。$UNI UNI's market is a bit top-heavy.
The liquidity pool has shrunk by nearly 30% in a week, yet the long-short ratio has surged to 2.48. Money is flowing out, but leveraged longs are still crowded inside.
This structure really can't withstand a crash. If a little selling pressure comes down, the slippage could trigger stop-losses for longs one by one. The biggest problem now is that there may be more people wanting to exit than those willing to take the positions.
#UNI
$UNI
👇Elon Musk spent 445 million to support the Republican Party, essentially as a business bet and political insurance, not simply an ideological stance. His Tesla and SpaceX are rooted in Texas, requiring relaxed regulations and government aerospace contracts. If the Democrats control Congress, they are likely to tighten regulations on autonomous driving and AI, and also review SpaceX's federal contracts, harming its business interests.
This money was mainly invested in Texas and other red states to help Republicans retain seats, attempting to maintain a policy environment favorable to himself, but the bet failed as the Republicans suffered a heavy defeat this round, and the investment did not yield the expected returns.
This also confirms the capital logic of U.S. elections: many capital tycoons donate money to support candidates with the goal of gaining policy favors and paving the way for their own businesses; however, money cannot guarantee election victories, as public opinion and other factors also influence the results.
Subsequent risks: After the Democrats take control of Congress, Musk's companies may face higher regulatory pressure and scrutiny risks.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥The U.S. midterm elections brought an overnight upheaval, but BTC has not yet seen a definitive rebound because of it! The Democratic Party took control of both the House and Senate, while the Republican Party suffered a clear setback, meaning that Trump's upcoming policy initiatives may face stronger congressional checks and balances.📊 Behind the elections, of course, there is a struggle among capital, interest groups, and political donations, but the results cannot be simply attributed to manipulation by any single group or financial consortium. What truly deserves attention is how the new Congress will exercise its oversight powers.
👀 One focus going forward is whether the Democratic Party will push for a deeper investigation into Musk and his related government projects. Democratic lawmakers have already expressed intentions to investigate, but what they will uncover and whether a formal conclusion will be reached cannot be judged in advance.
Returning to the crypto space, the most important level for BTC right now is the 74,800–75,000 support line.⚠️ If it breaks down effectively, market panic could intensify; if it holds, there is still a chance for short-term oscillations. The high-level replenishment funds around 76,500–77,500 also face pullback and leverage pressure. Don’t borrow money to average down your cost; the market won’t reverse just because you refuse to accept losses. Today, do you think political changes will first affect market sentiment, or will BTC’s technicals give direction first? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Bitcoin’s $75,000 line is no longer just a chart level. It has become the pressure point where leveraged longs are concentrated, and derivatives data suggests that a break below it could trigger roughly $1.001 billion in long liquidations across major centralized exchanges. That figure does not guarantee a decline, but it maps where the market’s most fragile positioning sits. The mechanics matter more than the headline number. Above $75,000, buy-side leverage has built up heavily. If that floor #Circle Earnings Report is on the way, can stablecoin growth generate returns? Gold has crossed 4000, while BEAT is still grinding below 0.10
$BTC has risen from a low of 75736.38 to 77929.42, approaching the upper end of the 24-hour range. In the last 3 full hours, it increased by 2.0%, but the trading volume was 21.6% less than the previous 3 hours.
I acknowledge the efficiency of the price rebound, but the momentum has not accelerated accordingly. This is a phase of price re-accumulation, and the strength should not simply replicate the initial speed when leaving the low point.
$BEAT has dropped 3.5% in the past 24 hours, quoted at 0.09925, still below 0.10. The most recent settled funding rate was +0.0062%, meaning longs pay shorts.
When the price is weak, longs still bear this holding cost. I focus more on whether the price can break away; the funding rate level does not equal the probability of a rise, and sideways movement in the short term will also test holders' patience.
$XAU Gold has moved up from around 3960 to cross 4000, quoted at 4025.79, having left the previous back-and-forth area near 3940.
This time, I am somewhat optimistic about price expansion, as there are actual transactions above 4000 as evidence. After pushing up to 4036.2 and pulling back slightly, this is a retracement that is not enough to erase the entire upward move.
RENDER has risen 4.0% in the last 3 hours, with aggressive buy volume accounting for 60.7%, but total volume decreased by 50.2% compared to the previous 3 hours.
What I see is that when trading volume contracts, the transaction method leans more toward aggressive buying. The upward direction is clear, but participation scale has not expanded. Combining these two pieces of evidence, the assessment should be positive but measured.The US has given the green light to perpetual contracts on stocks, and this matter deserves some discussion.
On November 3rd, CFTC Chairman Selig signed off: perpetual futures linked to US individual stocks can now be listed on regulated exchanges in the US. No expiration date, no need for rollovers, funding rates anchored to spot prices—this mechanism, which has been played with in the crypto world for years, is officially entering Wall Street.
Only four firms received licenses in the first batch: Kalshi, Coinbase, Kraken, and Crypto.com. Kalshi plans to list 58 popular stocks, including Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia, with a leverage cap of about 6.5x and a margin floor around 15%.
The on-chain sector is also restless: Lighter will submit DCM/DCO applications in November, and Hyperliquid is directly partnering with ICE to build a compliant market.
But Wall Street reacted faster—Citadel and Cboe immediately filed lawsuits in federal court the same day, demanding the approval be revoked; SIFMA and Nasdaq also sent letters to the SEC opposing it. Simply put, 0DTE options are their lifeblood, and perpetual contracts, which require no rollovers and can be traded almost 24/7, will divert order flow.
The next 60 days are critical: whether regulators can hold firm and whether the court will issue an injunction. If it succeeds, the crypto-native derivatives mechanism will truly have landed.
#Web3 #USStocks #PerpetualContracts #Coinbase The Democratic Party swept Congress, but BTC rebounded against the trend! Did the bears underestimate the market?
The Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, meaning Trump's fiscal and regulatory agenda for the next two years will face stronger checks and balances. However, BTC did not continue to fall; instead, it quickly rebounded from below $76,000 to retake around $78,000.
The reason is that the market is trading not only on policy negatives but also on capital changes after expectations are realized. As the election results become clearer, the dollar weakens and risk appetite warms; on election day, BTC options saw a nominal volume of about $660 million, with call option purchases clearly dominant, and short covering may have amplified the rebound.
Historically, BTC has risen an average of about 53.7% in the 12 months following the last three midterm elections, but the sample size is very small, so this cannot be directly extrapolated to the current cycle.
My view: It is unwise to blindly short in the short term, and short positions around $79,488 must have clear invalidation conditions. Next, focus on ETF capital flows, dollar trends, and whether the price can hold key resistance. You can stick to your directional view, but you cannot stubbornly bear the risk. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权