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#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
1. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation. If the route is blocked, oil prices will rise rapidly. Rising oil prices will push up global inflation, directly suppressing expectations for a Fed rate cut and even increasing the possibility of a rate hike. The strengthening of US Treasury real yields is bearish for interest-free risk assets like BTC.
2. Capital risk aversion reallocates
Capital will flow in layers: gold and US Treasuries are traditional safe havens; high-risk assets like US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will be sold off first.
Many people have a misconception: war does not equal a crypto market rally. Currently, BTC is classified as a risk asset, and at the outbreak of conflict, risk appetite usually declines and capital flees.
The upcoming market will be volatile. Brothers, what are your thoughts? Yesterday, crypto concept stocks took two completely opposite paths, perfectly exposing the industry's current most awkward situation.
First, look at Core Scientific. Q3 revenue was $233 million, net profit $1.178 billion. This difference wasn’t mined; it’s the change in the fair value of warrants recorded in the profit and loss statement. The same machines, the same electricity costs, but the book profit is inflated fivefold by Wall Street’s pricing rules.
On the other hand, Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, sold 2,520 BTC all at once, cashing out $192 million, basically clearing out reserves, and announced that future output will be sold immediately, with all proceeds invested in AI infrastructure.
The logic is straightforward: AI data centers can now get higher valuation multiples, and $BTC is the easiest asset to liquidate on the balance sheet. Selling coins doesn’t require issuing debt or new shares, making it the cheapest form of financing.
Tron Inc. is doing the opposite, still dollar-cost averaging, this time adding 155,000 TRX, bringing total reserves to 722 million. While mining companies exit, the ecosystem side is supporting, so the $TRX chip structure relies more on a single entity than $BTC.
What’s really worth watching isn’t that $1.178 billion, but who is actually selling coins for real money. The profit and loss statement can be polished, but cash flow doesn’t lie.$ETH
A security update has been released, but ETH's market hasn't responded favorably.
MetaMask stated that in the validator node incident in September, all affected nodes have exited, and there is no sign that wallets or wallet infrastructure were compromised; about 0.385 ETH in staking rewards were transferred, not users' principal. This distinction must be clear—don't confuse validator node rewards being redirected with wallets being hacked.
However, ETH is now around $2240, having dropped nearly 8% in 24 hours from $2429 to $2206. About $1.5 billion in perpetual positions remain open, and the funding rate is nearly zero. The security incident itself isn't major; clearly, there are other factors weighing on the price right now.
I will treat this as a risk background, not an independent trading reason. Let's first see if the market can absorb this drop.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 A $97.02 tower, with the upper structure only 0.2% away from the upper Bollinger Band, yet the bulls treat the 1.97% daily gain as a topping ceremony — this 0.2% eccentricity is enough to cause the most beautiful facade to crack under wind vibration.
The foundation of $JITOSOL is the Solana staking architecture; the load-bearing wall of liquidity derivatives lies in the validator set and redemption mechanism, not in the whitepaper's design diagram. The short-term RSI has reached 66.4, surpassing the sell threshold of 64; the 1-hour RSI signals not an overbought frenzy but the start of seepage at construction joints. The short-term Bollinger Band price position is 87%, 1.4% above the lower band and 0.2% below the upper band, a precursor to plastic hinges forming at beam ends before node yielding. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 51%, 3.2% above the lower band and 2.9% below the upper band; the core tube is temporarily stable, but the upper structure has entered a nonlinear response. The 24-hour gain of 1.97% is merely facade decoration; the load-bearing system has not been simultaneously reinforced. Entry at 98.38, 1.4% above the current price, is waiting for the beam to rebound to the preset sell point, not chasing load increases at the tower tip; targets at 94.55 and 94.03 represent declines of 2.5% and 3.1%, corresponding to a structural unloading at the support zone near the lower band +1.4%. The stop loss at 108.25, +11.6%, is seismic redundancy to prevent sudden foundation overload.
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
This trade only dismantles the excessive tension in the upper structure without touching the core tube; when the price is only 0.2% from the upper band, chasing longs is like cutting holes in the load-bearing wall.Haha, Trump’s move directly crashed his own Meme coin 😂
In the midterm elections, the Republican Party underperformed, and the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. Trump's political prospects took a big hit, and the $TRUMP coin with the same name suffered as well.
Yesterday, TRUMP hit a low of $1.215, setting a historic low. Compared to its peak of over $70, it has dropped more than 98%! The funniest part is, BTC has started to slowly rebound, but this coin keeps plummeting.
To be clear, this coin’s hype isn’t based on technology at all; it’s purely propped up by Trump’s political heat.
Now that the Republicans lost Congress, it will be extremely difficult for him to push crypto-related policies, and the Democrats might even start investigating his family’s crypto businesses.
The story they hyped before is basically dead.
The most valuable thing for a Meme coin is consensus. Once everyone loses confidence, the drop can be brutal.
Trump still has two years in office, but those holding TRUMP probably don’t want to stick around with him anymore. #US stocks suffer heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posts largest single-day drop since March 2020
The boss has something to say
I went to bed with no positions last night, and the first thing I saw this morning was this: On November 5, US stocks experienced a heavy sell-off, with the Dow down 3.44%, the S&P 500 down 4.36% to 7353, and the Nasdaq down 5.52% to 24315, having retraced nearly 12% from the October 6 high, entering a correction zone; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, marking its largest drop since March 2020, and S&P 500 constituents lost about $3 trillion in market value in one day. The trigger was the midterm elections where the Democrats took control of both houses, and the new governor of Texas promised to suspend data center approvals—Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas accounts for a quarter of all data center expansion in the US.
My interpretation is: this is not an ordinary correction; it is the first time the “AI infrastructure narrative” has been directly stabbed by policy. The market’s concern is not about demand disappearing, but that the switches of approvals and power are being held down, limiting new computing power supply, and the entire high-beta chain is being devalued together. Last night I stayed out and watched AAOI and Oklo earnings reports; looking back now, that was the right move—at this level of sell-off, any leveraged long position is a life-risking bet.
BTC fell along this morning, breaking below 76000, just smashing below the 78960 support line I mentioned a few days ago. My approach: don’t catch the first down candle, wait for panic selling to subside; first see if 75000–75800 can hold $BTC $ETH $ZEC The Nasdaq plunged 5.5% in one day, wiping out $2.5 trillion in market value! Just yesterday, people were celebrating the rebound, and today tech stocks got hammered badly.
The worst hit were semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 12%. Popular stocks like AMD and Micron didn't escape either.
This time, it’s really not just market panic to blame.
After the US midterm elections, the market started worrying that AI data center construction will face more obstacles. Power, water usage, approvals — it was already complicated, and now policy uncertainty has increased.
What’s worse, many data center companies rely on borrowing to expand.
If projects get delayed, revenue can wait, but interest payments won’t.
So there’s a notable change in this round of declines: the market is starting to reassess AI companies with large orders but insufficient cash flow.
With such a big drop, is it time to bottom-fish?
Short term, the bias is still bearish; no rush to buy.
The Nasdaq has entered a technical correction zone; first, watch if the semiconductor sector can stop falling. If chip stocks keep leading the decline, even occasional rebounds in the broader market might not last long.
Conversely, if semiconductors stabilize and financing pressure eases, then consider gradually building positions in companies with real profit support.
AI demand hasn’t suddenly disappeared, but the days when just telling an expansion story could drive prices up might be over.
With this tech stock crash, do you think it’s an overreaction or is the AI sector really bursting a bubble? $SNDK $SOXL #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Looking at this headline feels like seeing two people dining together and spending over a thousand, only to find upon checking the bill that one ordered a full Manchu Han Imperial Feast while the other just had a bowl of soup 😂
According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10,994,100 and $773,800 respectively, totaling $11,767,900. I think the main caution with this news is the emotional misinterpretation caused by the "total" figure, rather than labeling both coins uniformly as bearish: the outflow is clearly concentrated in $ZEC, and the redemption pressure on both sides cannot be equated; ETF fund flows are just one channel and cannot directly represent the overall capital movement of the coins.
If this total outflow is interpreted as both sectors falling out of favor simultaneously, I believe the evidence is insufficient. If you were to write the headline, would you highlight ZEC or put both coins side by side—should NEAR's bowl of soup share the bill of the full Manchu Han Imperial Feast?$OFC has already died prematurely. The project team continuously rewards workers and fans with coins without a clear unlocking schedule or fixed circulation. The endless airdrops make big investors hesitant to come in and manipulate the price easily. Looking at it now, 99.99% of the accounts are small retail investors who think that with such a low market cap, big money can easily pump it tenfold or a hundredfold, but little do they know there are no big holders at all. If there are any, they are stuck inside and can't move, not foolishly pumping the price to let you profit. The only way out is for the platform to delist it, and everyone suffers together inside. Better to cut losses and leave early than to die inside.Pal $BTC Market Morning Report -11.6 Today there is quite a bit of text; if you don't want to read it, just skip to the conclusion at the end. If you want to follow along with the analysis, please be patient. 1. K-line Chart 1) Daily Chart Situation (Figure 1) 1) Here we go again, drawing a good gate. The current market is completely controlled by emotions and news. On Wednesday, the market believed that a Democratic victory could check Trump, so it rose, but on Thursday, due to a Democratic super AI ban, market fear intensified directly. This is somewhat like in ancient times when a leader claimed to have 1 million troops but only had 10,000, causing the enemy to abandon the city immediately. However, for us, the decline is a buying opportunity at the bottom, not a reason to distrust. Because after a single-day plunge of 5%, it is often followed by short covering or an oversold rebound (for example, the top 20 largest single-day gains in history almost all closely follow the top 20 largest single-day losses). Two consecutive trading days with drops over 5% each day is an extremely rare black swan event, having only happened twice in history. (Will write a dedicated article at noon) 2) From the K-line perspective, this is maintaining the 75-81 range I mentioned, just that this oscillation is quite unpleasant. Actually, BTC is still relatively strong compared to the US stock market, it just gave back Wednesday's gains. Currently, 81-82 is a short-term important resistance level. Below that, 749 is waiting to be plundered. Then look at positions 732, 71, or more precisely, the current bottom is around 70-75. Unless the US stock market continues with black swan events, dropping 5% consecutively I've always been puzzled by one thing: the crypto world talks every day about how scarce and valuable AI computing power is, yet several newly inaugurated governors in the US have announced they won't allow new data centers. Ohio, Georgia, and Texas are among them. Cleanview says 40% of the planned capacity is stuck in these states, and 17 referendums have outright rejected large data centers.
So is it really a shortage of computing power, or is it that no one wants a data center near their home? $TAO and $FET represent the former, while the votes represent the latter. I haven't figured it out yet, so I'll just watch for now. The expansion of data centers in the United States has been held back by votes for the first time. The newly elected governors of Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, and Texas have publicly pledged to stop or delay statewide data center construction; the new governors of New York and Oregon have promised to extend existing moratoriums. This is not opposition from some small towns, but a change in stance at the state level.
Cleanview's statistics clarify the scale: about 40% of the planned data center capacity in the U.S. is slated for these states. The most certain new computing power supply has 40% stuck in approvals and referendums. Additionally, 46 local referendum measures have passed or are expected to pass, with at least 17 directly banning the construction of large data centers. This is a hard constraint, not a delay.
Why? The electricity and water bills for data centers are local expenses, noise and electricity price increases are borne by residents, while the profits go to distant cloud providers. Once the votes are in, local politics immediately respond. The bottleneck for AI computing power is shifting from chips to power access and land permits.
For the crypto world, tokens like $TAO, $FET, and $RENDER, which rely on the AI computing power narrative, must face an uncomfortable short-term reality: the other half of the story is being held back, causing a pullback in sentiment. But demand hasn't disappeared, supply is limited, and the price for renting computing power may actually become firmer. The real beneficiaries are players who already have electricity and grid connection quotas. $BTC and $ETH are unrelated to this trend.
One point worth considering: in the past two years, the race was about who could buy cards faster; going forward, it may be about who can secure electricity.SpaceX (SPCX) Weekly: Returned to the IPO price of 135 for the second time since listing. Real data (Yahoo, as of 11-04): Four trading days this week -6.4%, +1.2%, +3.6%, -3.81%, closing at $135.92, giving back the pre-election rebound; intraday on 11-04 once broke below 135 to 133.14, then pulled back above the IPO price at the close—there is clear buying defense around 135. Expanded to 64 trading days since listing: IPO price 135, highest 176.42 (10-21), lowest 105.11, currently +0.7%, completing two full rollercoaster cycles. This week's decline is macro-driven: the midterm election blue wave materialized, tech and AI repriced, Tesla down 10% the same day, with both companies losing about $37 billion in market value over two days. Event catalysts on 11-12: Starship Flight 15's first dual recovery; success could lead to valuation re-rating; combined with $40 billion off-balance-sheet chip financing (Goldman Sachs/Apollo syndicate, buying Nvidia leaseback) to expand computing power footprint. Technically, 135 is the lifeline: holding it confirms a double bottom, breaking it points to around 120. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $SNDK $SOXL My first reaction when I saw this message was: Opening a store in a mall doesn't mean there will be daily foot traffic. Business is about input and output; I think the same applies to ETFs. Having a channel is good, but where the cash flow goes is the daily ledger that needs to be reviewed.
According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10.9941 million and $0.7738 million respectively, totaling $11.7679 million. Among them, the Zcash ETF (ZCSH) had a net outflow of $10.9941 million, while the historical cumulative net inflow of the ZEC spot ETF remains $207 million.
My judgment is that this is a short-term negative sentiment for funds, but not enough to sentence the long-term demand for these two assets. The outflow this time mainly focused on ZEC; summarizing it as both tracks falling out of favor is too rough an estimate.
Single-day net outflow is the income and expenditure of that day, while cumulative net inflow is a longer-term account; the two cannot be mixed. My guess is that if outflows continue, the pressure on fund absorption needs more caution; looking at just one day is like seeing many returns in a store on a single day and directly concluding the business can't continue.
For me, this message is a reminder that risk reserves cannot be skimped on, and ETFs should not be treated as faucets that automatically flow in funds. How would business friends view this kind of risk: would you wait for several consecutive days of cash flow, or judge based on asset scale and cumulative inflows?过去24小时，$BTC 从76000一路拉到80500附近，但真正值得盯的不是涨幅，而是爆仓结构里那个刺眼的反差：总爆仓7.4亿美元，空单占了4.9亿，多单只有2.5亿。价格往上走，被抬出场馆的却是押跌的一方。这不是普通的逼空，这是一次由事件驱动的仓位再定价。 把这条线索接上当下的市场叙事，逻辑就清楚了：中期选举落地，小非农数据同步公布，两件事叠在一起，把$BTC此前积压的观望情绪一次性释放。资金不是在赌方向，而是在赌不确定性消失。空头恰恰站在了“再等等看”的那一边，于是成了这轮行情的燃料。市场往往低估这种“事件真空期”的杀伤力——当压制价格的不是基本面而是犹豫，一旦犹豫被数据抹平，反弹的斜率会比多数人预期的更陡。 更值得注意的是价格行为本身。$BTC 冲到80500后没有继续加速，而是横盘震荡。这说明推动力来自空头回补而非新增多头建仓，属于仓位结构的修复，不是趋势资金的全面进场。换句话说，这轮上涨的“质量”需要下一根火柴来验证，而周五晚间的非农数据正是那根火柴。就业数据若强化12月加息预期，风险资产的估值逻辑会被重新拧紧；若数据偏软，当前这种空头回补的动能反而可能延续。两种情形下，8#AAOI high-speed optical module volume surge, can the Q3 earnings report exceed expectations? After 75543 broke down, there was no panic selling; instead, it was bought back to 76000 — even more notably, BTC fees have turned negative, with short positions clustering on two major coins simultaneously.
Following up on Friday morning. First, the judgment: 75000 is temporarily defended by some, but it is not a confirmed stabilization; open interest remains at 610 million contracts, and leveraged positions have not been cleared. Continue short positions in the simulated market, watching two key levels today: a volume surge back above 77000 indicates short covering and the start of a short squeeze, so lightly follow with a quick position; if it cannot break above 77000 and 75162 breaks again, the next target is directly the 200-day moving average at 73169, with no mid-level scalp trades.
A bit of background: last night the US semiconductor index fell 12%, the worst night since March 2020, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the network. The root cause of this decline lies in the weakening AI narrative, not an issue within the crypto space itself.
Negative fees mean shorts are so crowded they have to pay longs; last Wednesday's squeeze was a prerequisite for this. But in a downtrend, squeeze rebounds are often just escapes for trapped longs, so don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
The two most dangerous moves in a downtrend are: bottom-fishing immediately after a drop, and only believing in a reversal after a rebound.
$ETH $SNDK #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Yesterday, Sandisk experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply from 1100 to a low of 800, hitting a new phase low.
Many are puzzled: wasn’t there an official announcement of a 1-for-8 stock split? Why did the stock plunge despite the split expectations?
First, clarify a key point: a stock split does not equal positive price movement.
A stock split is merely a division of shares, effective November 19, aimed at lowering the price per share to facilitate retail investor participation; the company's intrinsic value and shareholding proportions remain unchanged.
This plunge is not caused by the stock split itself but by a collective weakening sentiment in the storage sector, combined with a loosening of long-term demand expectations for flash memory, leading to concentrated capital outflows and triggering this deep correction.
Positive news turning negative—markets always price in expectations ahead of time.
The storage sector is highly volatile; be cautious when chasing highs. Woke up from a sleep, and the group chat exploded again. This time, it's not just the crypto circle; even the US stock market took a heavy hit!
The most direct trigger was: in the midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both the House and Senate and the Texas governor. The new governor promised during the campaign to suspend data center approvals. Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas alone accounts for a quarter of all data center expansions in the US.
Previously, the core story behind the AI rally was that computing power could expand infinitely. Now that expansion expectations are being suppressed, the underlying logic supporting the AI rally is shaken, and computing power and semiconductor stocks were hit first.
The crypto market also fell along with it. Many mining companies have long transformed into AI data centers, and many institutions hold AI computing power stocks and crypto assets in the same portfolio. When funds flee computing power stocks, they prioritize selling the most liquid $BTC and $ETH. This time, the billion-level liquidations were mostly long positions, representing a leveraged stampede that amplified the decline, not new negative news.
In my view, this restrictive policy still needs to go through procedures and legal battles, but the market has already priced in this negative news in advance, representing a preemptive sell-off. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 It's only been two days since the election results came out, and the side effects have already appeared. 76% of voters oppose building data centers in their communities. Even Meta has said that building new data centers will be more difficult in the future.
Previously, AI was criticized for burning money, but now they simply won't let you build. Public opinion has become a new variable. So if you look at the US stock market, cloud service providers are rising, while data center stocks are falling. The same AI is now being hit in layers.
Looking at our side, BTC is at 76237, last night it dipped to 75200, ETH at 2244, quite soft. The pressure from interest rates hasn't eased, AI regulation is back, buying power is still weak, three big mountains pressing down.
So what happens next? Tonight at 9:30 is the non-farm payrolls report, the short-term judge.
If the data is strong, expectations for rate hikes will heat up, and 75200 might be tested again, some are even calling for 73000. If the data is weak, there might be a bounce, but don't consider it a reversal. The current bearish factors are not just one line, but a bundle of lines.
So my advice is, don't take sides before tonight. Betting on the data is the least profitable trade. Wait for it to land and see clearly before making a move.
What do you think about tonight's non-farm payrolls? Is it a lifeline or the last straw that breaks the camel's back?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $MU
Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. Pulling 100x in a year on the US stock market is unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems to be correct.
Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market rallied inversely, then traded sideways all day, and by the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop.
So will it fall further? Personally, I think, purely my personal opinion, it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will pull up then drop down, so you don’t feel it’s a big drop. It won’t be a big rebound either; it’s just tormenting people.#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ ⚠️Not investment advice
OKLO:
• Demonstration reactor (INL) expected to connect to the grid in 2028, small-scale power supply implementation; Meta data center nuclear power project expected to start scaled power supply by 2030
• Positives: Obtained NRC design criteria approval, Meta framework intention, isotope business can be monetized earlier
• Challenges: No commercial operation license, HALEU fuel shortage, advanced reactor construction schedules prone to delays, most agreements are frameworks rather than formal power purchase contracts
In short: Small demonstration about 2 years away, AI data center scaled power supply at least 4 years away, approvals and fuel are the biggest variables. $SNDK
Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. In one year, the US stock market pulled 100 times, unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems correct.
Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market reversed and rose, then consolidated sideways all day. By the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop.
So will it fall further? Personally, just my opinion, I think it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will rise a bit then fall a bit, so you won't feel it's a big drop. It won't be a big rebound either; it will just be torturous. $CORE btcs.sa has already exited the core business, you can check espiebi. Also, not sure if it's a coincidence or has deeper meaning, this company holds 68.3 million core, and in the b14g theft incident, the hacker left about 68 million recovered, quite interesting The previous article questioned whether it was a true continuation or a short squeeze finale. The sharp drop in US AI stocks gave a direct answer: the entire market liquidated over $1 billion, $ETH plunged 7.98% to 2,230.05, while only $CAP rose against the trend by 12.66% to 0.10865.
During the sell-off, ETH saw a net inflow of 45,385 coins into exchanges in a single day, open interest dropped by 14.8%, the active buy/sell volume ratio was only 0.86, but the long/short ratio surged from 1.35 to 3.21; the speculative capital shifting to CAP was supported by a high funding rate of +0.0613% and 2.9 times volume.
We held a long ETH position for 21 hours and stopped out at -34.9%; CAP long positions were successively liquidated at -19.9% and -61.2%, then a reopened CAP long is now +21.6%, with a stop loss at 0.10141, 7.0% away from the current price.
ETH must reclaim the 4H EMA50 (2,310.73) to stabilize; breaking below the 7-day low of 2,171.52 would mean further downside; CAP continues to attack after surpassing the 7-day high of 0.11281, but breaking below the 4H EMA20 (0.0904935) would indicate weakness. Despite the surge in ETH long/short ratio, spot inflows are seen—can retail bottom-fishers withstand the selling pressure this time?
#ETH #CAP #MarketAnalysis
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks independently.Forgive my jinx, but unfortunately, it came true. The rebound is not a reversal, but there’s no need to worry too much! Since the midterm elections in 2006 when both chambers switched to the opposing party, the US stock market mainly experienced fluctuations rather than a major drop. Although the Democratic Party controls Congress and there are frictions with Trump, there is no friction between the two parties themselves. I believe AI stocks are not a bubble burst. First, human nature is similarLast night, the US stock market experienced a major correction, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.5%. The market had rebounded the day before due to the midterm election results, but the gains were completely wiped out in just one day. The crypto market was not spared either; Bitcoin fell from around $81,000 to below $76,000. $BTC This downturn was not without warning, with the most direct cause being market concerns about the investment prospects in the AI industry. Over the past two years, AI has been one of the most important drivers of the US stock market's rise. Whether it’s chip companies like Nvidia or cloud service giants like Amazon and Microsoft, they have all been continuously increasing their AI-related investments. However, as data center construction continues to expand, capital is starting to focus on another issue: when will such massive investments actually translate into real profits? Data center construction requires huge amounts of capital, and chip procurement, power supply, and infrastructure support are also driving up corporate capital expenditures. Some companies have even begun to rely more on debt financing. The scale of investment is growing, but the profitability of AI businesses still needs time to be proven, causing the market to reassess previously overly optimistic growth expectations. As a result, the semiconductor sector has become a major sell-off zone, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping sharply, and tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD also experiencing significant pullbacks. The midterm election results have also brought uncertainty to the market. After the Democrats gained an advantage in the elections, investors began to focus on the future attitudes of Congress and local governments toward AI infrastructure construction. Data centers not only involve corporate investment but also relate to power supply, water usage, and residents' living costs. For example, the new governor of Texas... Woke up in the middle of the night and found that options, institutions, and liquidations don't match up.
Options show 58.35% bullish positions, but liquidations show 64.2% short positions. The directions on both sides simply don't align. Let me break it down first. The bullish bets pile up on paper, but the positions don't follow through—that's what I mean by not matching. Only after breaking it down do I realize the hype is fake. 🤔
BTC: Positions haven't moved in 24 hours, a ballast stone; no movement means everyone is waiting for it to move first. ETH: Positions increased by 4.02%, volume surged by 30.59%, the hottest in the market and the only real position increase among the four coins. SOL: Positions only increased by 0.54%, following along, no own opinion. ZEC: Positions increased by 0.47%, but volume dropped by 21.90%, turnover cooled off significantly. 😅
Let's cross-check the three layers again: Liquidations show 64.2% short positions, those chasing shorts are still getting hit; options show 58.35% bullish positions, bets lean long; institutional CME positions at $7.52 billion, increased by 5.79%, institutions moved first. The three layers each tell a different story: liquidations are squeezing shorts, options are betting long, institutions are adding positions, directions are completely opposed. With conflicting directions, chasing either side risks getting hurt.
ZEC upgrade follows block schedule, expected early November. I treat it as a long-term hook, not a current reason. When things don't match, my only approach is to wait. Wait for options and positions to align before deciding whether to follow. CME moved first, but that doesn't mean the whole market moved. If alignment doesn't come, I'd rather miss out than chase wrongly. Before the three layers align, I won't leverage, just wait for positions to show their stance first.GMX has expanded the coverage of its stablecoin vault to seven markets at once: BTC, ETH, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, XRP, SOL. The USDG deposited will be distributed across all these markets, with earnings coming from the trading volume of these markets, withdrawable at any time, and a launch promotion running until November 30.
What’s truly worth noting is not "supporting seven coins," but the structure of "one vault simultaneously capturing the trading volume of seven markets."
Previously, stablecoin yield farming was mostly single-pool single-coin; you chose a pool and only bore that pool’s risk. Now, the same USDG is spread across seven markets, and the yield becomes a weighted result of the trading volumes of these seven markets.
Mechanically, this type of vault acts as the counterparty and liquidity source for these markets, earning from the fees paid by traders. The more active the trading, the more you earn; if the market cools down, the yield drops. It doesn’t sell fixed interest but packages the activity level of seven markets into a share that can be entered and exited at any time.
For retail investors, the threshold is indeed lowered: no need to individually provide liquidity or monitor liquidation lines of single pools; a single deposit automatically diversifies. For $GMX, a larger vault supports the overall asset scale of the protocol.
One point to consider: the volatility and liquidity of ZEC and HYPE are not on the same level as $BTC and $ETH, and the announcement does not specify how weights are allocated. Diversification sounds safe, but if weights are equal, the risk is determined by the weakest market. Check the allocation ratio before depositing.On the surface, everything is rising, but very few can truly hold on. Is this wave really a window for chasing the rally, or just another false hype? Let me set the tone first: it currently feels more like an emotional recovery phase after the news has settled, not a full-scale offensive phase. With election uncertainties fading and policy concerns easing, BTC has returned above $81,000, and mainstream coins have taken the lead. But the market gives me the impression of lively indices with layered support; the experience of chasing highs and buying dips feels completely different. What’s truly worth watching is the cross-market linkage. The volatility caused by AI regulatory divergences after the US midterm elections will first transmit to risk appetite, then to sector selection within crypto. In other words, the market is not simply trading on "no more bad news," but is pricing in advance whether "after policy visibility improves, funds will dare to return to assets with real income." BTC holding steady is the emotional base; whether ETH and altcoins can keep up depends on whether funds are willing to shift from defensive to offensive positions. On the bullish side: reduced policy uncertainty will indeed improve risk appetite; BTC standing back above $81,000 gives the market an anchor to tell a recovery story. DEX assets like HYPE, which have protocol revenue and buyback-and-burn loops, are easily taken as "real cash flow" examples; UNI’s reform fees are linked to burns, v4 multi-chain and Hooks continue to attract liquidity, and it has no large unlocking burdens, making it a valuation reconsideration but not suitable for chasing highs; LINK connects RWA and institutional on-chain demand, with elasticity that doesn’t explode,#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动
$BTC
Last night was the direct trigger: the Nasdaq plummeted, dragging down risk assets and hitting cryptocurrencies
$ETH
Last night BTC dropped from 80,800 to 75,500, ETH fell over 7%, driven by four combined negative factors:
US tech stocks crash: Nasdaq -5.52%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -12%, AI spending concerns intensified, BTC sold off as a high beta asset;
Leveraged liquidations chain reaction: over $1.08 billion liquidated in 24h, 88% long positions, a long squeeze triggered after breaking below 78,000;
Weakening liquidity: ETF net outflow of $201 million, Coinbase Premium turned negative, insufficient institutional buying;
Pre-nonfarm risk aversion: market cut positions ahead, waiting for tonight's data to set direction.
Summary: Macro deleveraging, non-crypto sector defaults. Support at 75K, but unable to hold 80K means weakness persists. Short term focus on tonight's nonfarm: hot data → retest 75K; cold data → recovery towards 79K-80K. Trading strategy: no chasing shorts, no catching falling knives, 75K-76.5K is the critical zone, break below targets 73K. Historical data shows that in past cycles studied, Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis has reached at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to approximately $142,260. We regard this as a reference level to observe the trend of this bull market, not as a minimum target or final peak: historically, prices have continued to rise after surpassing this level, but whether a similar trend can recur remains uncertain. Historical experience indicates that bull markets only peak after Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis (the percentage by which market price exceeds average cost) reaches at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to $142,260. We view this as the minimum trigger threshold for the bull market to start pushing toward the peak, not a ceiling, and certainly not the final peak: historically, prices usually continue to rise significantly after surpassing this level. As Bitcoin rises and turnover (chips changing hands between old and new holders) increases, the average holding cost will rise accordingly: some holders take profits, new buyers enter at higher prices, and this process itself pushes the target level higher, meaning the peak of this bull market should be above $142,260. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC After the midterm elections, the AI regulatory narrative has started, first let's see if Clarity-type legislation is progressing.
At first, I also thought that if the Democrats took both chambers, crypto legislation would quickly be implemented. Looking at NBC exit polls, 76% oppose building data centers in their own communities, and 57% believe AI does more harm than good to society. Public sentiment is quite firm on this.
On the legislative side, The Block cited Digital Chamber saying: Democratic control of Congress does not mean comprehensive crypto legislation is completely dead, but the old way of bypassing moderate Democrats no longer works. They specifically named Warren as a leading candidate for Senate Banking Chair and identified this committee as one of the biggest obstacles to Clarity. The September Senate procedural vote on Clarity failed, and no new bipartisan timetable has been posted since.
Don't interpret the Nasdaq or crypto pullback as regulatory bills having already been passed. If next time the congressional calendar shows bipartisan hearing dates for Clarity or similar market structure bills, I'll admit I underestimated this situation. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 After 9 years of struggling independently, Zilliqa finally admits defeat: it will transform itself into Ethereum's Layer 2, specifically serving regulated institutions. The ZIL token will not disappear; holders don't need to take any action for now and should wait for the official announcement of technical details. From another perspective, the original chain lacked sufficient usage, capital, and liquidity, and security incidents further drove up maintenance costs. So they decided to hand over settlement to Ethereum, embedding identity verification and compliance mechanisms to create a permissioned market for compliant players. Simply put, they are moving themselves from an "isolated island" into Ethereum's "big family," hoping to leverage the large ecosystem to solve liquidity and security issues. After all, the total market cap of stablecoins has reached nearly $300 billion, with a 1.65% drop over 7 days, and on-chain liquidity is tightening. Do you think this move can help Zilliqa regain its footing? #OrbitTech The Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, it fell 8.3% during the day, then reversed to rise 18% after hours 📈
Cloudflare Q3 revenue was 782.5 million, up 39% year-over-year, the fastest in nearly four years, adjusted earnings per share were $0.38, and guidance was also raised.
But it has dropped 23% in 5 days, surged to 288 after hours, OKX perpetual has fallen back to 278, the 280 barrier has not yet been firmly held.
I think the earnings report is strong, but before holding above 280, consider it an oversold rebound.
$NET
#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 $FLOKI
The FLOKI bot service suddenly went offline, and the team said they are investigating an exploit and reminded users not to deposit money into the bot wallet temporarily. The official statement also said that affected users will later be migrated to a new secure wallet, but no specific impact scope has been given yet.
Let me clarify the boundaries first: this is a security incident with the bot service, which does not mean the FLOKI token contract has been compromised. However, the market won't make this distinction for you. FLOKI spot is currently at 0.00002139, having dropped from 0.00002281 to 0.00002071 in 24 hours, still down about 6.2%.
OKX spot daily volume is about $347,000, perpetual volume about $1.98 million, open interest only about $687,000, with a funding rate of -0.00576%, meaning shorts are paying. In a small pool, news can easily be amplified. I won't interpret the price drop as the project going to zero, nor will I take the official migration promise as risk fully resolved. Until the bot issue is clarified, treat this as a security incident first.
#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 The election market rally lasted only one day. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones rose 1,569 points, but on Thursday it gave back 1,833 points in one go, closing at 51,523, which is even lower than before the election; the Nasdaq first rose 364 points, then fell 1,422 points, nearly four times the gain. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, the worst day since March 2020. On Wednesday, the market rushed to buy on the assumption of a favorable result, but on Thursday it realized that with the Democrats taking Congress, AI data center approvals will slow down.#非农在即, can the employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? $ZEC US spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $578 million on November 4, marking five consecutive trading days of losses, with a five-day cumulative outflow of approximately $1.91 billion. Fidelity's FBTC led with an outflow of about $357 million, followed by ARKB with about $128 million; none of the twelve products had a net inflow that day.
However, BTC's market price moved oppositely: it rose from a low of around 75,734 in 24 hours to near 81,200, currently priced at about 80,760, with a funding rate of approximately 0.007%. Institutional players are still withdrawing, yet the price has recovered over five thousand points.
I tend to view this rally as a short-term pulse driven by short covering combined with a post-election risk appetite recovery, rather than a trend reversal. Before ETFs turn positive, chasing longs above 80,000 still lacks conviction.
In the short term, 80,000 serves as support, with multiple retests during the Asian morning session; reduce positions if this level breaks. The first resistance is at 81,200, where the price was capped this morning; do not chase without a breakout. Set stop loss below 79,200, with an initial target of 82,000, maintaining a small position size.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
The core contradiction in Moderna's Q3 earnings report lies in the tug-of-war between short-term vaccine revenue pressure and long-term pipeline valuation. The market expects revenue of about $890 million, a year-on-year decline of approximately 12%. The COVID-19 vaccine, as the foundation, continues to decline; the RSV vaccine struggles against the first-mover advantages of GSK and Pfizer; the flu vaccine missed the 2026 US procurement cycle, contributing minimally this quarter. But what truly deserves attention is whether the company can maintain its full-year revenue guidance and the year-end cash target of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. If vaccination season data does not significantly worsen, the market may continue to focus on the oncology pipeline narrative; otherwise, accelerated cash burn will reignite doubts about the commercialization ceiling of mRNA.🔥 The US October non-farm payrolls are coming! Will the rate cut script be rewritten?
This time, the key to the non-farm payrolls may not be "how many new jobs" but "the structure." Unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate explain the cooling or stalling of the labor market better than the total monthly number.
If new job growth slows, unemployment remains stable, and wages grow moderately, it indicates a soft landing for the economy, which is actually more comfortable for risk assets. If the unemployment rate suddenly spikes and rate cut expectations heat up again, it might first be suppressed by recession trades. If wage stickiness is strong, the Fed also has no reason to rush to ease.
For $BTC, don’t just focus on the probability of rate cuts. Whether the US dollar index falls back, real interest rates decline, and liquidity truly improves are harder signals. Rate cut expectations can cause pulse-like rallies, but sustained moves require liquidity support.
My judgment: The rate cut window is still open, but non-farm payrolls are just one piece of the puzzle. What the market will trade next is whether there will be a soft landing or recession risk, which is more important than guessing the timing.
Are you more worried about rate cuts being further delayed or the economy turning down first? #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ NRC审批拉长、燃料供应滞后，首堆推迟到2029–2030，大规模供电延后至2032之后Seeing this kind of 10x long position, my first reaction is not to guess how much it can rise, but to first calculate how long it can hold if it goes the other way. When I train newcomers, I always emphasize: direction judgment and position tolerance are two separate challenges.
Core Trader 19 opened a long NBIS position this time, using 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $57,600. This is an opening signal; the result is not yet revealed, so a large bet cannot be taken as evidence of bullishness.
📌 A simplified calculation: dividing the position by leverage, the initial margin is about $5,760; if the price drops 1%, the position loss is about $576, which is 10% of this margin, not including fees. Leverage amplifies not only profits but also compresses the error correction space.
Newcomers often misunderstand that "10x leverage means you can withstand a 10% drop." In reality, forced liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin, margin mode, and other factors, so you can't apply this rigidly. When I look at such positions, I first check the risk boundary before discussing directional confidence.A short position on $ETH at 2200, I didn't choose to set a stop loss; instead, I added to the short at 2404, with an average price of 2324.
Because my trade is based on the logic of hacker coin theft and coin washing, Trump's election loss hasn't changed this logic. Even if it rises to 2448, it still holds.
I don't believe hackers would dump 550,000 ETH without creating a price gap.
This is just part of my trading position, short-term, for reference only #dUS midterms just put AI data centers under a political spotlight, and the market is split on what comes next. The facts: most Americans oppose a data center in their own community (Reuters/Ipsos: 57%, Gallup: 71%). WilmerHale expects tailored rules after the vote rather than a full stop, while Oxford Economics says the threat of moratoriums may already be pulling construction forward. Two readings: Tighter rules slow capacity, which raises costs and delays builds. Policy uncertainty pushes Big TSaw something quite interesting: the boss of a listed company came out saying, "Our stock is too cheap, I'm starting to buy from today."
Do you believe that? My first reaction was, "Then why didn't you do it earlier?"
But this time he gave the full reason. Texas Helios Phase One delivery, 800 megawatts, all capacity leased out under long-term contracts, not just empty talk, he actually has long-term contracts in hand.
He also admitted that the Democrats winning brings pressure, but said that financial blockchain and AI demand are cross-cycle matters. To translate: I accept whoever is in power short-term, but long-term I bet on the trend.
The boss says it's cheap, but I don't dare to follow. Whether $BTC goes up or not, I don't know, but he is buying his own company's stock himself.The head of a publicly listed crypto company openly stated that there is a huge disconnect between their stock price and company value, and then started buying shares that very day. This is exactly what Galaxy Digital's Novogratz did.
First, let's look at what he holds. The first phase of Helios in Texas has been delivered as planned, with 800 megawatts of capacity fully leased out through long-term contracts. This information is more significant than the stock price: the computing power is not sold off piecemeal but locked in by long-term contracts, ensuring cash flow for the coming years. While the market is still debating the narrative, its revenue structure has already shifted to contracts.
Next, why dare to increase holdings under pressure? He admits that the Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. brings pressure but places his judgment on a longer timeline: the migration of finance onto the blockchain combined with the AI demand explosion is a generational shift that transcends government changes and market cycles. The key is that it does not depend on any particular administration being friendly but on whether the migration itself continues.
The mechanism is not complicated. A company that simultaneously operates asset management, investment banking, mining farms, and computing power is often valued based on the worst-performing business segment, which is a complexity discount. The management's way to counter this is by increasing their holdings, using real money to say the discount is excessive.
But it must be made clear: when a CEO says their stock is cheap, the reliability is limited; far more people call undervaluation than actually get it right. What really matters is those 800 megawatts of long-term contracts and whether AI demand can translate into rental income.
One question remains: when a mining company's valuation is determined by AI computing power rental income, is it still considered a crypto company? The pricing power of $BTC's computing power fundamentals may be undergoing a rewrite.If this is round one of AI valuation cuts, $BTC rarely escapes round two — Nasdaq -10% from its Oct peak and semis -11% in a day is the risk-off that dragged $BTC $80,960 → $75,558. $BTC fell less than Nasdaq, but if data-center funding dries up, semis lead lower. $75,000 support, $77,770 then $80,000 resistance. AI bubble bursting or just a correction? Comment 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trending #OKXOrbit🔍 Stablecoins have risen, but I actually want to check who is quoting the prices. Don't rush to interpret the premium as strong demand.
Blockaid has detected that the bridged token DAI.e on the Avalanche chain has risen to about $1.10 in active decentralized trading pools. The pool's peg deviation is a clue, but it doesn't mean the entire chain is short on coins.
This is my speculation: if the pool depth is insufficient, even small trades can push up the price. I treat this more as a liquidity alert and will continue to monitor the pool depth and the duration of the peg deviation.Democratic control of both chambers shifts the policy balance from unified Republican rule toward oversight and negotiation. The crypto angle remains a discussion of possible House legislation, not a bill or timetable; that uncertainty matters for markets assessing a broader SEC role and conflict rules.
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Market expectations are approximately $990,000 to $1.09 million (year-on-year significant growth mainly from isotope sales, not electricity sales).
· Earnings per share (EPS): Generally expected to be about -$0.24 to -$0.27, with losses widening about 40%-46% year-on-year.
· Net loss: Expected to be about $43.53 million.
· Cash position: As of the end of Q2, holding about $3 billion in cash and marketable securities, but the 2026 operating cash burn guidance has been raised to $120 million to $150 million, and capital expenditures have been increased to $400 million to $500 million.