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BTC briefly dipped to 75,691 today, ETH spiked to 2,226, but don’t just focus on the candlesticks. What’s more noteworthy is the shrinking positions: BTC perpetual 24-hour open interest dropped by 2.1%, ETH 7-day open interest decreased by 6.2%, indicating that old leverage is being withdrawn. This signal doesn’t mean the sell-off is fully cleared; it’s more like deleveraging on one side while re-betting on the other. The question is whether the new positions are bottom-fishing long or trend-following short — it’s still unclear.
Funding rates haven’t fully cooled off either: BTC remains at +0.01%, ETH has cooled but is still above the 7-day average. Price breakdown and total positions declining leave long costs relatively high, making the structure unstable.
Whether this is a fakeout or a real drop depends on where the new positions stand after the old leverage is cleared. Strategically, don’t rush to catch the falling knife; wait until funding rates truly cool down and BTC holds above 75,000 again before discussing further.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC The US midterm elections are being held today, and this is positive for Bitcoin in the long term. History shows that BTC has always risen during the twelve months following the last three elections. 2014: +24.5% 2018: +44.9% 2022: +92.3% These elections are very important for cryptocurrencies. The CLARITY Act has already stumbled in the Senate, and if the Democrats win, the chances of its passage will decrease further. Not only that, but a Democratic win could push Trump to launch new attacks on Iran, which would lead to higher oil prices and inflation 🔥 ETH bulls shouldn't just focus on a rebound; what really needs caution right now is position risk!
📊 According to an order book data I follow, the short positions have reached 1.5 billion USDT, while the long positions are relatively weak. More importantly, some long entries are concentrated above 2890. If the current price continues to face pressure, these high-level positions could face greater unrealized losses and margin pressure.
⚠️ The most dangerous scenario is that a price drop triggers a batch of long stop losses, which then leads to forced liquidations of high-leverage accounts. The concentrated selling could turn a normal pullback into a rapid plunge. This process doesn't require all bulls to give up simultaneously; just a concentrated exit near key price levels can amplify volatility.
🔎 But I won't conclude that ETH must fall just because short positions are large. Large holders' positions may include hedges, and data from a single platform doesn't represent the entire market. What really matters is whether shorts continue to add positions and whether spot buying can catch the price during a decline.
🛡️ For today's operations, controlling leverage and setting good stop losses are far more important than guessing the bottom.
If you currently hold ETH longs, would you choose to reduce positions for defense or continue waiting for a rebound? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ I first put on the brakes for myself after reading: more equity VS less US dollars, you can't directly equate the two.
Hayes estimates that SpaceX may add about 8.6 billion new shares outstanding by June 2027, increasing share supply by about 50%, and warns this could drag down crypto liquidity.
I treat this as a risk contingency plan, not a realized negative. The transmission only holds if AI credit contraction leads to bank balance sheet shrinkage. Which side do you choose: to be alert early to dilution risk, or to wait for evidence of credit contraction? BTC pulled back to 80,000, I revise my view: short-term focus on recovery first.
On November 4, the daily candle closed at 80,508, up 3.94%. During the session, it dipped below the low before October 30, but ultimately recovered to 80,000, closing higher than the highest price of the previous two days.
Yesterday I was bearish, but after this bullish candle appeared, I can no longer pretend the market hasn't changed.
The short-term selling pressure was absorbed, marking a win for the bulls. Moving forward, I am more optimistic about the continuation of the recovery, initially targeting the 50-day moving average around 82,000.
However, the resistance zone between 84,000 and 85,000 remains, and a higher low has yet to be confirmed. Today, I am adjusting the short-term direction, but more evidence is needed to confirm a bull market restart.$BTC Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins. The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. $xCRCL's earnings report exceeded expectations, but what I think is truly worth focusing on is not how much money it made, but the relationship between USDC growth and shareholder returns.
Circle's latest quarterly revenue reached $865 million, a 17% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of $0.84, significantly surpassing market expectations. However, the USDC circulation at the end of the quarter was about $73.9 billion, basically flat year-over-year.
This is interesting.
Making money from stablecoin business does not necessarily mean the stablecoin scale is growing rapidly. Interest income from reserve assets, interest rate changes, and operating costs can all affect Circle's profits.
For on-chain US stock and RWA investors, what I care more about is: how much sustainable income can future stablecoin payments and tokenized securities settlement scale expansion bring?
CRCL stock reflects the company's equity value, while USDC is just a dollar stablecoin; the two are not the same. Even if you gain CRCL price exposure through on-chain products, you must first confirm whether you have real shareholder rights, as well as liquidity and trading session restrictions.
I will not chase the price just because of one earnings beat for now. The next focus is whether USDC circulation can accelerate again and whether non-interest business income can continue to grow.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
@OKX星球 Microsoft: I used to not care when you called me "Giant Soft," what do you call me now?
Microsoft has rebounded from 504.96 to 555.8, soaring 6.68% in a single day, the king returns.
The market is straightforward: the daily chart closed above the BOLL upper band at 550.7, RSI6 surged to 71.7, a bit overexcited in the short term. MA5/20/60 are supporting at 527/531/510 respectively, the EMA structure remains intact, but the price is too far from the middle band at 530.9, technically a pullback is needed. The strong resistance above is at the previous high of 559.15, and the downside retracement target is 543.
The real story is in the news. FY27 Q1 revenue is 92.3 billion (+19%), Azure's constant currency growth rate is 48%, Morgan Stanley raised the target price to 650, the story remains attractive. But on the other hand, capital expenditure soared 70% year-over-year to 41 billion, free cash flow is being eaten up by AI infrastructure, 4,800 layoffs, and another 60,000 "voluntary departures" pushed, clearly "cutting headcount costs to pay for GPU expenses." The market is willing to believe "AI investments will eventually pay off," but no one guarantees the payback period.
Sentiment-wise, institutions are banding together, retail investors are following.
My view: Microsoft is not like Nvidia, a pure growth stock; it is "the most stable cloud leader + the most expensive AI bet." The long-term logic hasn't collapsed, Azure + Copilot moat remains; short-term, don't chase above 555, wait for a pullback to 531-543 to stabilize before considering, break below 505 to talk about weakness.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ The way the Korean stock market is falling today is indeed a bit scary😥
The KOSPI once dropped more than 5% intraday, even triggering a temporary limit on program trading. SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell more than 7% at one point, and Samsung Electronics didn't fare much better.
What’s even more noteworthy is the capital flow:
By 11 a.m., foreign investors had net sold stocks worth over 1.2 trillion KRW, while retail investors were aggressively buying.
Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, but semiconductors fell sharply against the trend, and today the Korean stock market is taking another hit.
I talked about this yesterday: after the U.S. midterm elections, the market began to worry that AI data center construction would face stricter regulations; but the Korean market has another problem—KOSPI is overly dependent on semiconductor giants like Samsung and Hynix.
As global capital starts to reassess the growth rate of AI capital expenditures, the Korean stock market naturally takes the brunt.
However, I believe that the current stock price plunge should not be directly interpreted as a problem with HBM demand:
Hynix’s fundamentals have not changed so drastically overnight, but market expectations for future growth have already begun to loosen.
Moving forward, I’m more focused on whether foreign capital selling can ease, because if foreign investors keep withdrawing, retail investors alone can’t support the entire market.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BNB
$634 million. The amount stolen from Binance's hot wallet on October 29, the largest in history, with over $280 million still frozen.
Binance itself said it compensated 95%, the remaining 5% are illiquid niche coins, slowly being bought back both on and off the market. The third batch of withdrawals was unlocked today at noon, covering 36 coins, using the Ethereum network.
The strange thing is BNB. During the worst days of the incident, it didn't collapse; today it even rose by 2%, opening at 699.36 in 24h, touching 723.34 at 6 a.m., now at 713.5.
Looking closer, it’s not that good. At 10 a.m., a 1H candle released 543,000 contracts, touched 720.47 but failed to hold, then at 11 a.m. 208,000, 12 p.m. 161,000, 1 p.m. 217,000, volume dropped to one-third, price slipped from 715.9 to 713.7.
Fee rate 0.00456%, benchmark 0.01%, about 45%. Perpetual contract discount 6 basis points. Total market open interest only $49 million, thin among major coins, meaning no one is betting on BNB regarding this event.
Net outflow is real. On November 1, the first day, $4.6 billion withdrawn, $1 billion deposited, net outflow $3.64 billion, accounting for 2.1% of its asset management scale.
The books can hold up, but sentiment is slowly moving out. The real answer is not in BNB’s K-line, but whether the withdrawal queue for those 36 coins is still lining up.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Circle Q3 earnings breakdown: strong revenue, average quality.
Revenue of $865 million, up 17% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA surged 85%, USDC on-chain transaction volume increased 49% — looks like a solid report card.
But breaking down the structure, there are three points to temper enthusiasm.
First, the profitable core business is shrinking. Reserve income was $658 million, down 8% year-over-year — this is the stablecoin company's most critical money printer; when interest rates fall, it stops working. This quarter's profit was supported by $207 million in "other income," of which $182 million came from selling its own ARC tokens, a one-time income. So net profit only increased 5%, a huge gap compared to the 85% EBITDA growth.
Second, volume rises but price does not. On-chain transaction volume increased 49%, but USDC circulation only grew 8% — the more frequent the transactions, the thinner the fee earned per dollar, indicating growth relies on "running volume" rather than "expanding the balance sheet."
Third, transformation is accelerating. Annualized payment network volume of $41.3 billion, acquisition of Tazapay, 5% layoffs to control costs — Circle is clearly pushing the narrative of becoming the "stablecoin version of Visa," reducing reliance on interest income.
The stablecoin sector has no long-term issues, but Circle's Achilles' heel remains interest rates — if rates really rise in December, it would actually be bad news for them.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Market: BTC rebounds in a V-shape from 75,600 to above 80,000
Overnight, BTC briefly dipped to about $75,618, then pulled back to the 80,000–81,200 range, rising about 3%–5% in 24h;
ETH surpassed $2,400, up 5%–7%
Sector-wide gains: DePIN +5.79%, RWA +5.47%, Layer2 +5.28%, individual tokens STX +11.31%, INJ +12.41%, RAY +17.73%
But the truth lies in derivatives: $936.1 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with shorts liquidated at $533.28 million; BTC single short liquidations about $370 million, with $215 million shorts liquidated within one hour.
Meanwhile, open interest actually dropped 4.36% to $347.73 billion — volume expanded but positions shrank, a typical short squeeze rather than new buying.
Sentiment hasn’t truly turned optimistic: put option demand is more than twice that of calls; BTC spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.157 billion over the last three confirmed trading days, with over 130,000 liquidations across the market according to Sina’s data $BTC $ETH $SOL
Around 1 PM, I saw a breaking news that Schroders brought its first tokenized strategy onto Solana, and the comment section below was full of institutions entering.
I went to check the original announcement. This was actually released yesterday afternoon, but the news only got picked up a day later. It’s Schroders’ Emerging Markets Bond Fund, issued via Centrifuge, a brand with $1 trillion AUM, indeed the first active management strategy of this scale on Solana.
But the announcement didn’t mention the scale, the minimum investment threshold, nor did it provide the contract address.
The market didn’t give it any respect either. SOL touched 97.06 today then pulled back, currently at 96.05. The 1H volume bars at 9 AM were 418K, 10 AM 347K, 11 AM 364K pushing higher, 12 PM 291K, and from 1 PM till now 185K, volume shrinking with each bar.
The fee rate is 0.00225%, benchmark is 0.01%, just over 20%. The perpetual contract is even trading at a 4 bp discount, with a $334 million position unchanged for a day.
If big money really came in on this news, it wouldn’t be at this fee rate. I acknowledge the RWA line, that’s a three-to-five-year play, but short term it’s about who’s getting paid. The ±1% order book shows 9.17 million buy vs. 8.62 million sell, just standing off against each other.
My judgment is this news is worth a research report, not a single bullish candle.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ After the chaotic US midterm elections, the market is trading on an expectation: a change in the US Congress composition may reduce the likelihood of the US escalating the conflict with Iran further, thereby easing energy supply risks. However, Ajian does not believe that yesterday's drop in oil prices means inflationary pressures have disappeared, and the recent rebound of $BTC cannot yet be called a trend reversal.
It should be noted that in the past month, the crypto market capitalization has shrunk by nearly $300 billion, influenced not only by macro interest rates but also by factors such as AI asset valuations and security incidents on trading platforms. The reality is that the market has not yet re-established a sustained spot buying demand, and one must not compress a transmission chain into a simple conclusion of price rise or fall.
Therefore, from a macro perspective on Crypto, I suggest continuously focusing on this logic: changes in energy prices → changes in inflation expectations → changes in bond yields → changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations → changes in risk asset valuations.
That is all, DYOR #USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress The whale's "short rent collection technique": not worried about floating losses, funding fees provide the safety net (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
This whale has cast a big net in perpetual contracts: BTC, ETH, and SOL all covered on the short side, with a nominal position of about $660 million. On the surface, the BTC short position shows a floating loss of $3.62 million, which looks a bit glaring, but the funding fee income of $3.59 million almost fills the gap; the ETH short position has a floating profit of $2.35 million, plus funding fees collected of $4.56 million; the SOL short position has a floating profit of $346,000, with funding fee income of $3.96 million. The total funding fees from the three positions amount to about $12.12 million, not only covering the overall floating loss but also contributing positive returns (￣▽￣)ノ
Its strategy is not to bet on a short-term crash but to "collect rent" on long-term shorts, exchanging time for space. Positions use full margin mode, with 5x leverage on BTC and ETH, and 7x leverage on SOL. The opening average prices are BTC at $76,383, ETH at $2,322.71, and SOL at $94.33; corresponding liquidation prices are approximately $137,256, $3,793.19, and $292.81 respectively.
The sweet spot of this portfolio is the continuous inflow of funding fees, but the risk is obvious: full margin collateral linkage means that if extreme market conditions approach the liquidation prices, the three positions could drag each other down ⚠️. So, while the whale seems to be sitting steadily on the fishing platform, it is actually still racing against extreme volatility.
$BTC $ETH $SOL When it comes to results landing, the market never waits for who wins, but rather "is it over yet." Once uncertainty clears, risk assets dare to raise their positions: BTC surpasses 80,000 for the first time, ETH surges 6% in a single day. This rally is not driven by fundamentals, but by pricing power shifting from the shorts back to the longs. On the policy front, let me be clear: with the Democrats controlling both chambers, the market structure bill the industry wants has already been blocked in a procedural vote in the Senate. No one will pay for crypto votes in an election year; they want a posture of no trouble. Those still expecting Washington to gift the industry should wake up this round. What truly pushes prices are money and leverage, not legislation. On the two days results landed, $236 million worth of positions were liquidated within two hours, 80% of which were shorts—shorts forced to buy back on the order book, that's how the 80,000 line was formed. Whoever is forced to liquidate is the one paying the bill; this rule is tougher than any policy. On the institutional side, the trend is opposite. Spot products saw net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling just over a billion in three days, with the harshest day seeing $640 million withdrawn; only on election day did it turn positive for the first time, adding back $230 million in one day. Leveraged longs push prices up, institutions reduce positions first then come back—whether these two forces converge is what to watch next—not Washington, but capital flows. History must be laid out: after the November 2018 midterms, Bitcoin ground down from below $6,000 to $13,000 by Q2 2019; 2022Don't be fooled by this bullish candle; this rally is driven by short sellers "self-destructing," not new money entering the market.
$BTC BTC (80,727): Short positions closed in the last 24 hours reached $533 million, but open interest actually shrank by 4.36%. ETFs have seen a net outflow of $859 million over the past 6 days, and IBIT has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days. The rebound pushed up by short covering is just a paper tiger without incremental follow-through.
$ETH ETH (2,434): 1.23 million ETH are queued for staking, with almost zero withdrawals, which looks solid. However, ETFs have had over $1.2 billion outflows this month, and staking yields have dropped to 2.2%—the locked tokens represent existing believers, not incremental buyers chasing highs.
$SOL L (96.77): Spot ETFs saw a record weekly outflow of $71.47 million, whales dumped 1.49 million SOL on exchanges within 10 days, and hackers continue converting SOL to BTC and fleeing. No matter how lively the on-chain activity is, it can't withstand selling pressure coming from all directions.
Summary: The fireworks from short covering are over. Next, we need to see if stablecoin supply can stop falling and if ETFs can turn to net inflows. Do you think this rally is the start of a reversal or just a "one-day tour" of short covering? Show your positions in the comments!🔥BTC surged over 7% but failed to hold above $81,199! What does this indicate? A strong rebound does not mean the uptrend is confirmed. The real focus of today's market move should be the capital structure behind the rise, not just the big bullish candle.📈
First, looking at the news: The US midterm election results are becoming clearer, with the Democrats taking both chambers. The market briefly worried about changes in crypto regulation, and the progress of the CLARITY Act might be hindered, causing BTC to dip near $75,700. Then, as uncertainty eased and market sentiment recovered, the price quickly rebounded.
📊 Next, looking at the derivatives market. According to CoinDesk, on election day, BTC options block trades had a notional value of about $660 million, with roughly $420 million in call option buys and about $105 million in call option sells. Increased bullish bets and short covering may have created additional buying pressure, driving the price up rapidly.
⚠️ The issue is that after BTC hit $81,199, it pulled back, possibly releasing pressure from profit-taking and trapped positions above. My short-term strategy remains to look for shorting opportunities on rebounds, not chasing shorts at lows or longs during sharp rallies. If volume supports a stable hold above $81,200, a reassessment will be necessary.
Going forward, I’m more focused on whether spot buying can continue the momentum. Do you think this is a brief short squeeze or the start of a new trend? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 🔥BTC pulled up from $75,700 to $81,199, then reversed and fell from the high! The most dangerous part of this rally is not the rapid rise, but that many people tend to chase longs when they see a rebound and immediately chase shorts when they see a pullback. 😂
🧭 I break down this rise into three factors: first, the US midterm election results were finalized, easing political uncertainty; second, bullish bets in the options market clearly increased, with CoinDesk revealing about $660 million in BTC bulk options trades on election day, including about $420 million in call option purchases; third, short covering and leverage liquidations may further amplify the gains.
📈 But the failure to hold above $81,199 after the rise indicates that selling pressure above is still worth watching. Buying options does not equal continuous spot market inflows, and short covering does not mean a new bull market has started.
My trading plan is clear: no chasing longs in the short term, wait for the rebound to meet resistance before considering shorts; if the price breaks out with volume and holds above $81,200, then abandon the original short bias and re-examine the bullish structure. ⚠️
Trading is not about catching every move, but only doing what you are confident in. Do you think $81,200 is the watershed for the rebound, or the starting point for the next bullish breakout? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ETH $BTC
ETH current price is $2,424, up 6% in 24 hours.
With the election results finalized, the market was once under pressure: BTC dipped to 75,700, ETH touched 2,226. US market sentiment reversed, oil prices fell 8.3%, lowering inflation expectations, ETH ETF ended five days of net outflows, and short covering pushed the price back to 2,450.
This is still a recovery after the bearish exhaustion, not a reversal. The probability of a December rate hike is 81%, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.97%, liquidity is not loose. On the policy front, with the Democrats controlling both chambers, the CLARITY Act is stalled, and approval of ETH staking ETFs may be slower.
Resistance above is at 2,450 and 2,509 (MA50), support below is at 2,174, the lower edge of the range. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the next variable.
The above does not constitute investment advice and is for reference only. My first reaction is: this risk chain can run, but don't treat conditional branches as certainties.
Arthur Hayes estimates that SpaceX's circulating stock supply could increase by about 50% by June 2027, and warns that AI credit contraction may compress dollar liquidity, dragging down the crypto market.
I think credit is more critical than unlocking. The potential bug is treating unlocking directly as a sell-off; if financing costs continue to rise, the pressure may then spread outward. If it were me, I would first watch the financing conditions and not preemptively assume a market rescue scenario. After the Democratic Party's landslide victory yesterday, BTC first dropped to around 75,600, then rebounded in a V-shape.
It was still stable around 79,000 before sleep, so how did it directly surge to 80,000 in the morning?
Liquidation map shows:
Breaking through 82,000 liquidated about 337 million short positions, while falling below 79,000 has about 919 million long positions waiting to be liquidated.
My judgment:
Above 81,000 is a resistance test zone, suitable for betting on a pullback after a rebound exhaustion; short positions can be opened above 81,000.
Basis:
1. 81,000–82,000 is near the 365-day moving average + previous supply wall + a key dense resistance zone repeatedly tested without effective breakthrough; high probability of breakout failure.
2. This round of rise mainly relies on short squeeze liquidations + elimination of election uncertainty, lacking sustained spot buying and ETF inflows; it is a corrective rebound, not a trend reversal.
3. With the Democratic Party controlling Congress, regulation may become stricter, a medium-term bearish factor.
4. Daily RSI is low, MACD still weak, prone to "false breakouts" followed by pullbacks.
5. The 77,000–80,000 range has concentrated position costs; surges easily trigger profit-taking and trapped position selling pressure.
6. The current rise is linked to stock market rebound and oil price decline; once macro sentiment cools, crypto is likely to correct first.
Operation advice:
It is recommended to open short positions at the 81,000–82,000 resistance level, targeting around 78,000–79,000; stop loss if breaking through 82,000 effectively, and if falling below 78,000, the target can be lowered to 76,000 Top 10 airdrops worldwide have crashed
$STRK says it will move from L2 to L1 in 2027
Can this move salvage the situation?$NVDA fell back to 200, east rising and west falling? Is the tech bull really over?
Can the bulls get some breathing room? As long as the pattern is trapped, no support on the downside, all resistance on the upside, this is scarier than July.
Nvidia is now at $200.13, retreating from the October 6 high of $243.37 to around 200, a short-term "valuation kill".
The market is straightforward: price broke below the 200-day moving average, MACD green bars expanded, KDJ oversold, Bollinger lower band at 199.2 underfoot. As long as the 200 integer level holds, it’s still high-level consolidation; if it truly breaks 199.6, look down to 190. Resistance above is at 204, 212, 220; without volume pushing back above 212, it’s considered a weak rebound.
But the fundamentals haven’t collapsed. FY26 full-year revenue is 215.9 billion, Non-GAAP gross margin 71.3%, Blackwell in full production, Rubin taking over in the second half of 2026, and inference demand driven by Agentic AI is still ramping up. PE (TTM) is 25x, which isn’t expensive for a compute leader growing over 60%.
The real risks aren’t whether AI is a false demand, but three things:
Whether cloud providers’ capital expenditure cycles will marginally slow;
AMD, Google TPU, and Amazon’s self-developed chips taking away some market share;
China’s export restrictions continuing to shrink accessible markets.
Currently, 95% of institutions are bullish, with an average target price above 320, but that’s a 12-month view, not tomorrow.
My judgment is that the tech bull is over. $ZEC That whale account with a historical net profit of 140 million USD suddenly slammed short positions aggressively on ZEC.
This move is definitely not a minor adjustment; the net increase in short positions directly reached 40% of his current total position.
After opening the short positions, he held on stubbornly with almost no record of closing positions, showing a clear one-sided downward pressure.
With such a large volume of smart money openly bearish, a long squeeze explosion on ZEC below is probably just a matter of time.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇Understand the current capital truth of $BTC with one CVD chart — spot whales have entered, are you still in?
Many worry this wave will turn bearish directly; just look at the 4-hour separated CVD to tell clearly.
Since the drop from 87300, the main force smashing the market has been leveraged contract funds, with the blue line deeply declining all the way, bulls stopping losses and shorts adding positions. This is also what I have emphasized: this drop is more dominated by the contract market rather than a large-scale sell-off in the spot market.
Meanwhile, spot funds have not panicked and fled. Since the day Binance was hacked and the price dropped to around 76300, the orange spot CVD has stabilized and turned upward, with spot whales starting to accumulate chips in batches.
The declines yesterday and today saw spot CVD buying again, leading the contract CVD rebound and crossing above the contract CVD.
Notably, the contract market has not caught up yet, as it just experienced a large number of consecutive liquidations and still needs to recover.
Further observation is needed:
1. Whether spot CVD can continue to recover and turn positive from negative.
2. When contract CVD will sharply turn upward.
Only when spot + contract funds resonate and flow back will the upper resistance zone of 84,000–85,000 open, driving altcoin rotation.
Finally, we still see this pullback of over ten thousand points as a continuation of the uptrend, unless spot CVD continues to deeply decline afterward.SpaceX's stock supply might increase by about 50%, which is the figure I care about most in Hayes' estimate. I usually separate "the company getting money" from "old shareholders being able to exit": both are capital stories after going public, but they are not the same thing for the company's sustainability. The article also warns that the stock price pressure on AI giants might transmit through the credit chain to the crypto market.
My judgment is that the IPO hype cannot be directly counted as a positive for crypto. An increase in unlocked shares available for trading does not mean the company obtains new funds, nor does it mean all these shares will be sold. My speculation is: if supply pressure lowers the stock price and causes creditors to raise financing quotes, then the financing convenience brought by going public might be discounted, and the crypto market could also be dragged down by tightening liquidity.
So I care more about whether the "exit channel widens" or the "financing channel narrows." To judge whether this risk is approaching, would you choose to watch the stock price performance after unlocking or the bond yields of related companies?A dinner bill suddenly popped into my mind: the AI giants are responsible for ordering lobster, the crypto crowd is sitting at the next table, but the waiter says, "You all need to eat a little less." My first reaction was: this table hasn't even settled the bill yet, but the check is already being calculated 😂
Arthur Hayes warns in "D is for Dilution" that SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may face unlocking and dilution pressure after going public. According to his estimates, by June 2027, SpaceX could add about 8.6 billion new shares outstanding, equivalent to about a 50% increase in share supply; initial investors in Anthropic's IPO may face dilution as high as 83% during the same period. I think this is more like a liquidity stress test and cannot be directly taken as a bearish verdict for the crypto space.
My reasoning is that more shares do not mean banks will immediately lend less money. According to his logic, this still has to go through stages like stock price weakening, bond investors demanding higher yields, and AI credit contraction, so the scenario shouldn't be treated as an immediate account notification. But if banks slow down balance sheet expansion because of this, then the crypto market might be passively pressured; this is a speculation following his logic and means that only focusing on crypto news might miss the source of risk.
So I would pay more attention to whether this chain can transmit to the credit side, rather than just counting new shares. Are you on the side of "dilution should be warned about in advance," or "credit contraction is the real hammer"? The next table ordered lobster, so should we really keep the instant noodle soup first?In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.004 billion, burying 135,000 people.
Short positions liquidated $571 million, long positions liquidated $434 million. Shorts liquidated $137 million more than longs, which is completely opposite to previous "long liquidations" market trends.
Looking at the coin distribution: BTC alone liquidated $408 million, with shorts accounting for 75.6%, meaning over $300 million of that was short positions liquidated; ETH liquidated $248 million, also dominated by red shorts. BTC and ETH are the hardest hit areas in this short squeeze.
Looking at the timeline: $621 million liquidated within 12 hours, with shorts at $425 million. This was the wave after last night's election results, a collective stampede of shorts. Within 4 hours, longs and shorts were almost even ($17.17 million vs. $14.83 million), indicating a tug-of-war after the rebound. The largest single liquidation was on HTX's ETH, a $37.99 million short position forcibly closed by a whale.
This kind of short-dominated liquidation market is called a "short squeeze." Election results → bad news fully priced in → shorts panic close positions → price pushed up. But brothers, understand that in this $1 billion liquidation, shorts were passively closed, not new longs entering.
The characteristic of a short squeeze is rapid rises and rapid falls. Once shorts are fully liquidated, without new buying support, prices can fall anytime. 130,000 people liquidated shows leverage was too crowded at this level. With non-farm payroll data coming out tomorrow night, don't chase the highs. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Super reversal lands! BTC/ETH shorts completely flushed out 🔥
$BTC｜80699
Today's market sees a two-way shakeout, with an early dip to 75628 hitting a six-week low, followed by a violent rebound during the US stock session, breaking key resistance levels repeatedly, with an intraday volatility of 4.9%.
This rally is driven by concentrated short covering, with no new capital entering. Macro tailwinds support the market: crude oil, inflation, US bonds, and the dollar all weaken simultaneously.
However, ETFs continue to see outflows, and institutions have not returned.
Looking ahead, holding above 79000 targets resistance at 81647; breaking through 82000 targets 84000; a drop below leads to a 77000-78200 consolidation.
ADP beats expectations; avoid chasing highs before nonfarm payrolls.
Range: 79800-81400｜Stop loss: 79300
$ETH｜2427
After piercing the 2226 low, a strong rebound with a single-day gain of 6.97% outperforms BTC, with stronger short squeezes.
Multiple resistances have been broken; upside targets are 2450 and 2513.
But ETFs continue to bleed, making the strength hard to sustain.
Holding 2317 supports continuation of the rebound; breaking below returns to the 2250 range.
Range: 2390-2460｜Stop loss: 2360 About $132.8 million, I will break this amount into two columns: how much is in coin value, and how much cash is actually in hand; the report only provides the first column. Lookonchain detected that MARA transferred a batch of $BTC to platforms like Galaxy Digital and Copper. What I care more about is whether the mining company can convert assets into usable funds, rather than whether the transfer amount is shockingly large.
My judgment is that this looks more like a signal for fund management observation, not enough to be taken as evidence of deteriorating operations. According to my speculation, if the transfer is for financing, it can alleviate cash demand but may also increase collateral constraints; if it is a sale, then cash increases and coin exposure decreases. These two arrangements carry completely different risk profiles.
I would choose to be more cautious and wait for clearer usage before making a judgment, not rushing to label the mining company. When encountering such large transfers with unclear purposes, would you prefer to play it safe and wait for clarification, or are you willing to take the risk of misjudgment and prematurely bet on one explanation?Seeing this message, I feel the same familiarity as in the previous round: when off-chain financing heats up, the crypto circle has to watch the US dollar liquidity. Arthur Hayes warned in a post that AI giants may face unlocking and dilution pressure after going public; according to his estimate, SpaceX could add about 8.6 billion new circulating shares by June 2027, equivalent to increasing the share supply by about 50%.
What’s different this time is that he places the risk chain on the bank balance sheets. My understanding of the transmission is: if stock prices come under pressure and push up financing costs, AI credit may contract; if banks then slow down balance sheet expansion, the crypto market may also lose a source of US dollar liquidity. But this is a conditional deduction, not an already occurring liquidity withdrawal.
My judgment is a bearish cycle reminder, not an immediate sell-off signal. Compared to the dilution ratio, I pay more attention to whether credit is truly tightening. Do veteran players feel the same familiarity? Will you watch AI stock unlocking or bank balance sheet expansion?Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), and SOL ($SOL) all rose simultaneously, but this round of rally is more of a short squeeze rather than a broad bullish consensus. $BTC refreshed the local high to 78520, $ETH reached 2322.8, and SOL ($SOL) showed relatively weak gains, only 0.87%. The most obvious signal behind the market comes from liquidation data. In the recent period, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all saw a large number of short positions forcibly closed, while the scale of long liquidations was much smaller. The price rise mainly relied on shorts being forced out rather than new buying continuously absorbing selling pressure. However, leverage has not decreased accordingly. The long-short ratio of the three coins has somewhat declined, but the total open interest continues to rise, meaning the liquidated short positions are being replaced by new longs. At the same time, all three have positive funding rates, indicating longs need to pay fees to maintain the current uptrend. Now that a large wave of short positions has been cleared, the buying momentum from forced liquidations has weakened, and longs need to continuously bear holding costs. Interestingly, SOL ($SOL) has the highest funding rate but the weakest market performance among the three, showing that clustered longs do not necessarily gain profits. The key observation point ahead is $BTC at 78520. Holding this level could attract shorts to re-enter and restart the squeeze; once broken, these longs carrying holding costs may face a new round of stampede. Additionally, $ETH had almost no longs during the statistical periodFollowing point 9️⃣
Cloud providers have negative cash flow but are still increasing future capital expenditures,
AI large models are pre-booking future computing power demand.
Those selling the tools won’t let the market down, refer to AMD.
It is recommended to take profits while earnings sentiment is high and hasn’t fallen back yet,
Remember "Never make the last penny."
Risk control > profit, build positions in batches, leverage should not exceed 10x A platform not on the top list achieved a single-day perpetual contract trading volume of $414.9 million yesterday, a historical high. This number alone is meaningless; it only makes sense when paired with another: perpetual contracts contributed 43% of its total daily revenue.
First, look at the structure. Derivatives platforms mainly earn from fees, and perpetual contracts are the easiest product to convert trading volume into revenue—there’s no expiration date, positions can be rolled over indefinitely, and one can open and close many times a day. When perpetual volume rises, revenue follows mechanically.
But volume does not equal profit. $414.9 million is nominal turnover, not net inflow. The same margin can be opened and closed twenty times, generating twenty times the nominal volume. To judge whether this new high reflects real demand or just wash trading, one must see if new account openings are rising in sync and whether the average margin per trade is increasing or decreasing. Neither is mentioned here.
Next, look at concentration. One product line accounting for 43% of daily revenue means the platform’s revenue curve almost mirrors the perpetual contract volume curve. When volume is good, the financials look good; once $BTC volatility narrows and leverage demand wanes, revenue will drop much faster than user numbers.
So the real takeaway from this news isn’t the $415 million, but the 43%. Nearly half the revenue depends on a single product, making growth elasticity and vulnerability the same thing.
One question remains: if next month volume remains at a new high but the 43% drops to 30%, does that mean new business is rising, or is perpetual subsidizing volume growth?The crypto circle's hot topic just surfaced, and the prediction market odds have already shifted. I haven't even found the original news yet. This speed really makes you wonder if someone got the answer in advance. But if the market depth is thin, a slightly concentrated buy order can skew the odds. Unlike trading Bitcoin, here you're betting on event outcomes, and even the definition of "how it counts as happening" has to be scrutinized. Odds are pricing given by the funds, not a certification of facts. I actually want to click on those suddenly changed markets to see where the news source really is, but no matter how much I search, it's always the same screenshot?Moving stocks onto the blockchain, the hardest part to transfer is actually the order book. I think the real weight of the Hyperliquid news is that it shifts the competitive topic from "what can be traded" to "whether deeper trading demands can be supported."
According to Bloomberg, co-founder Jeff Yan went to London to meet some policymakers and hinted at the possibility of offering tokenized products of large company stocks in the future. The report also states that core contributors of the platform hold at least 238 million HYPE tokens, valued at about $20 billion; this is not his disclosed personal net worth.
What I care more about is how liquidity will come. Tokenizing stocks increases trading access points but does not automatically increase the funds willing to continuously quote prices. My guess is, if market making, pricing, and risk hedging don’t keep up, then no matter how long the trading hours are, it might just be shelves open with very thin order books.
Another variable is third parties. The report says third parties play an important role in product supply, which means the product experience may not be determined solely by the platform. For ordinary users, how the underlying stocks correspond and how abnormal market conditions are handled might affect trust more than how user-friendly the access is.
I see this as an important signal of on-chain trading competing for traditional asset demand, but the assumption that "liquidity exceeds traditional stock markets" still needs to be verified. Next, I will focus on product rules and the ability to maintain continuous quotes, rather than being dazzled first by asset digitization. Just finished lunch, was feeling sleepy, but after checking last night's spot ETF data, I was instantly wide awake. The contracts surged so fiercely last night—do you think big money was frantically buying? These institutions are playing a double game, one face in front, another behind!
$BTC endured outflows for a full four days (tens of millions flowing out each day previously), but yesterday finally saw a turnaround with a net inflow of $9.63 million. However, looking closely at the details, BlackRock (IBIT) withdrew nearly $26 million, while Fidelity (FBTC) stepped in with $30 million to cover. This clearly shows internal disagreements among institutions. Although they started tentative buying, the old foxes are very cautious.
Looking at $ETH, there was heavy bleeding in recent days. Yesterday showed a superficial net inflow of $23,300, but don't rush to celebrate. BlackRock (ETHA) alone dumped nearly 100 million in a single day. Grayscale is buying, but BlackRock is aggressively selling, indicating institutions are distributing at highs during the rebound. This ETH rally won't last long.
The funniest is $SOL—yesterday's data showed zero across all items. A few days ago, there were daily outflows, and now institutions don't even bother pretending; they just lie flat. This means SOL is now purely retail traders hyping contracts with no big money backing.
In summary, contracts reflect sentiment, but spot holdings are the real solid foundation. Although the BTC ETF has stopped falling, disagreements remain large. Don't blindly rush in just because the candlestick is up; understanding institutional intentions is the key.
What do you think—can BTC firmly hold 80,000 this time? Are you holding long or short positions now?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Brent's 8.67% drop to $94.62 on Nov. 4 shows how quickly a possible easing in the Iran conflict is being priced through oil. The midterm result may sharpen political pressure, but Qatar has no deal and Iran's demands remain unresolved. Markets are discounting a path to supply relief, not confirming it.
#OilWarRiskRepricing #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
The gaming business is under short-term pressure but profits are improving, while the music business shows steady growth, jointly supporting Sony's better-than-expected earnings report this time.
In gaming and network services (G&NS), PS5 hardware sales have slowed due to rising storage chip costs, but profit improvement is driven by increased network services and digital software share, as well as favorable exchange rates, with Q1 operating profit up 37% year-on-year. The release of "GTA VI" in November will be an important catalyst for the second half of the year.
The music business performed even more impressively, with Q1 revenue up 21% year-on-year, driven by comprehensive growth in streaming, offline events, and copyright income. Recently completed the acquisition of copyrights for over 45,000 songs from Recognition Music Group, further expanding IP assets.
Together, these two major segments account for more than one-third of Sony's revenue. The recovery of gaming profits plus continuous growth in music are the core supports for this better-than-expected earnings report.The phrase "share unlocking" made me pause for a moment: AI company stocks can be sold now, so how does that affect the crypto space? Hayes is worried it will drag down stock prices and the credit market, further squeezing crypto liquidity, so Maelstrom is temporarily taking a wait-and-see approach.
My understanding is that unlocking does not equal new issuance, nor can it be directly interpreted as funds being withdrawn. I think the more important aspect of this news is risk appetite, not the number of shares: if post-unlocking sell-offs push stock prices down and make credit funds more cautious, then the crypto market might come under pressure as well. This is my speculation based on the news, not a result that has already occurred.
After being in the space for a year, I still tend to jump to "someone can sell now" and imagine it as "they're about to dump" 😂. I haven't figured out yet what level of stock price pressure would affect credit. A reminder to myself: being able to sell, actually selling, and impacting other markets are three different things and should not be equated all at once. This wave of $BTC has given me a decent rebound to wait for.
The long position entered around 77300 has already moved from unrealized loss to unrealized profit. The second long order placed at 76188 was also successfully filled.
Looking back now, the fill at 76188 was actually quite thrilling. BTC once dipped to around 75690, the worst moment on the chart when no one knew if there was more room below. Fortunately, I didn’t go all in at once but placed orders in batches as planned.
BTC has now risen above 80800, reaching a high of 81199. The 1-hour Bollinger middle band is at 78993, the upper band at 81420; the price has clearly returned to a strong range but is also close to facing resistance at the upper band.
On the news front, the US midterm election results are in, with the Democrats taking both chambers. When the results first came out, BTC briefly dropped below 76000, then made a V-shaped rebound, climbing back above 81000. The market is now trading not just on the election results themselves but also on whether subsequent crypto regulatory legislation will be affected. Risk appetite has returned, but policy uncertainty remains.
The first two long positions have already secured profits, so the next priority is protecting those profits rather than chasing after every big bullish candle.
The orders from 77300 to 76188 were all pre-planned limit orders, not just excuses made after the price rose. #DailyOrbit In this message, what I'm focusing on are the four words "credit market." In the futures market, a price drop in a certain commodity isn't necessarily the most worrisome; it's when financing conditions tighten that things get troublesome, because that might force those who originally didn't want to reduce their positions to also shuffle funds. When I look at such cross-market news, I usually start by checking the money flow, not rushing to guess the direction.
Hayes believes that the unlocking of AI company shares could drag down stock prices and the credit market, thereby compressing liquidity in the crypto market. Maelstrom is currently taking a wait-and-see approach. My own judgment is that this is more like a capital stress test question and cannot yet be directly taken as a bearish conclusion for the crypto market. The key lies in whether the credit link is truly affected.
Crypto is different from traditional commodities; you can't directly apply industry supply and demand, but the logic of financing constraints can be compared. My speculation is that if pressure on the stock side causes fund providers to reduce risk limits, then even if crypto itself has no bad news, it might still be implicated; if it's just an internal repricing of AI stocks, this transmission chain may not hold.
My old habit, frankly, is to first see whether borrowing money is difficult, then see whether the story is compelling. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When you encounter such news, what credit indicators would you use to judge whether the pressure has transmitted to crypto, rather than just looking at whether both sides are falling together? $BTC is still hovering just above eighty thousand in the afternoon, roughly oscillating around eighty thousand and three hundred. The momentum from the morning's sharp rebound has clearly dulled; seeing the green but not daring to chase much.
Last night, the pullback from around seventy-five thousand looked scary, but much of it was shorts being squeezed out pushing the price up, not new money frantically buying. The sideways movement in the afternoon with less active trading makes the market feel suspiciously quiet—this is when it's easiest to feel stuck on both sides: afraid to chase due to pullbacks, but also afraid to short because of a possible late-night surge, itching to act but hesitant to go heavy.
My own view is simple: sideways does not mean the buildup is complete. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are still ahead, and there's no solid sign of ETF inflows yet; the resistance above eighty-two thousand remains tough. Don't take this little green in the afternoon as a free pass to confidently add positions, and don't relax your mindset just because "it's already above eighty thousand." Holding steady is a breather, not a license. When short-term volatility is high, position sizing and discipline are more valuable than slogans.
Are you watching the show for now, or can’t you resist taking action yet? $BTC $ETH $SOL #CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns
Coinbase's prediction markets surpassed $200M in annualized revenue during Q3.
Daily traders grew over 60% quarter over quarter, while more than half of Q3 contracts traded were non-sports.
That's an interesting sign of how prediction markets are expanding beyond sports.
#Coinbase #Crypto #Web3Short-term focus on amount VS long-term focus on sustainability, I usually start with this comparison when looking at mining company news. Lookonchain detected that MARA Holdings transferred 1,650 $BTC, approximately $132.8 million, to platforms like Galaxy Digital and Copper in the past 12 hours.
My judgment: This news carries more weight for short-term sentiment than for explaining long-term supply and demand. The scale of over a hundred million dollars easily leads the market to associate it with selling pressure; however, 12 hours is just an observation window and cannot be used to judge the mining company's long-term capital arrangements. If similar transfers continue to appear afterward, then I will increase my attention to potential supply pressure — this is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred.
Therefore, I lean more towards "looking at sustainability"; the amount grabs attention, but continuous behavior has a greater impact on my judgment. Would you raise your alert based on a single large transfer, or adjust your view on mining company supply only after multiple consecutive transfers?Three majors are rising together, but the composition of the rally looks less like broad conviction than a one-sided squeeze. $BTC printed a fresh local high at $78,520 and trades near $78,497, up 2.43% over 24 hours. $ETH sits at $2,322.8, also up 2.44%, while $SOL lags at $93.09 with a 0.87% gain. The price action is synchronized; the positioning beneath it is not. The clearest signal comes from liquidations. Over the past 86 minutes, $BTC recorded 100 liquidation orders worth $806,000 in shorWhy do I analyze that now is not the time to enter a long position? If this really were a strong bullish trend with a big rally, yesterday it would have firmly held at least the 84000 level. Only then could everyone believe that the capital's bullish counterattack has sounded the horn. But why did it pull back to just above 81000, waiting for retail investors to get on board, promising quick profits? Even if it does make you money, it would have to be at the 84000 level, not 81000. This clearly shows insufficient capital trying to pull retail investors up together, using the opportunity to escape. At most, tomorrow, there is one more day before it must crash down.The dog that can't be killed is the most valuable dog
First, my judgment: The most valuable thing about DOGE is not its hype, but its longevity. It has survived for eleven years, while 90% of coins born at the same time have gone to the grave. It is still lively and kicking. This kind of "unkillable" nature itself is an option that the market has undervalued.
Lindy's Law states plainly: for something that does not naturally perish, every additional year it lives adds another year to its expected lifespan. This applies to books, technology, and currencies alike. DOGE was born as a joke, survived three full bull and bear cycles, and outlasted countless challengers claiming to replace it. Eleven years undefeated means it is no longer a game that can end at any moment, but an asset with survival inertia.
The key lies in the compounding of consensus. The longer it lives, the more people know about it, the less exchanges dare to delist it, the more wallets are willing to support it, and the more loyal the community becomes. Once this cycle starts, it’s no longer a price issue but a presence issue. Like the noodle shop at the neighborhood entrance that’s been open for twenty years — its taste may not be the best, but it’s the first thing you think of when you’re hungry late at night.
Adding Elon Musk into the mix, DOGE gains a variable others don’t have: a superstar spokesperson who naturally brings traffic, plus a namesake department to ride the hype. This off-market catalyst effectively gifts the option with time value.
Of course, longevity doesn’t guarantee a rise; options can expire worthless, and faith coins never spare you from drawdowns.
So my view: don’t just focus on whether $DOGE will surge or not; first acknowledge one thing — a dog that can’t die is already appreciating just by "being alive." #DailyOrbit #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
This week's U.S. employment data could not only reinforce the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate hike in December but might also directly lock in this action; federal funds futures have priced the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December at 81%–83%.
At the FOMC meeting at the end of October, although the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, there was a 10-to-2 vote split, indicating high internal vigilance against an inflation rebound.
The ADP private sector employment increase of 86,000 in October, released on November 4, was steady and in line with the previous figure. What alarms the Fed more is wage stickiness—total compensation for employed persons rose 4.7% year-over-year, while total compensation for job switchers surged 7.6%, marking the fastest growth since March 2024.
September's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased by only 29,000, and the market median expectation for October's nonfarm payrolls, to be released on November 6, is only 55,000 to 65,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.2%.
In short, since the market has already heavily priced in a December rate hike, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is actually an asymmetric game: data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations will solidify the rate hike outlook and support U.S. Treasury yields; conversely, if the data again falls significantly below 50,000 as in September, it would break the current consensus on rate hikes and trigger a sharp dovish market repricing.