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The results of the U.S. midterm elections on November 4 were announced: the Democratic Party regained control of both chambers of Congress. The market's initial reaction was not panic but relief—the stock index futures initially fell 2.5% during early vote counting, then fully recovered. The analysis from Nexo represents the mainstream view: the market sees the election result as "increasing certainty rather than changing the growth story." The crypto market's rebound was even more direct. On November 5, Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $80,500, returning above $80,000; Ethereum increased nearly 6% to $2,433; Solana and XRP rose about 2.5%. Leverage data is worth a close look: futures trading volume rose 27%, but open interest increased only 3%, with about $469 million in leveraged positions liquidated amid volatility—traders were adjusting existing positions rather than adding new leverage-based bets; in the options market, call options were the most active, and spot order flow shifted from seller dominance to slight net buying. $BTC $ETH #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #Nonfarm Payrolls Approaching, Can Employment Data Strengthen December Rate Hike Expectations?
Nonfarm Payrolls Approaching: Can Employment Data Strengthen December Rate Hike Expectations?
The US added 86,000 private sector jobs in October according to ADP, exceeding market expectations; the ISM services employment index rose to 51.4, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months, with some employment indicators showing marginal improvement.
At 21:30 Beijing time on November 6, the US will release the October nonfarm payroll report. The current market expectation is an increase of about 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.
Nonfarm payrolls are the most important data trigger before the December Federal Reserve meeting. Currently, CME rate pricing shows nearly a 79% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December. Against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure and the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in October, this nonfarm data will directly adjust market rate hike expectations, driving fluctuations in US Treasuries and the US dollar, which will then transmit to the crypto market.
A simple outline of three scenarios:
1. Nonfarm significantly exceeds expectations: strong employment resilience, the market further bets on a December rate hike, US Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthen, risk assets come under pressure, BTC and ETH are likely to face short-term downward pressure;
2. Nonfarm basically meets expectations: existing rate hike pricing changes little, the market continues to fluctuate;
3. Nonfarm significantly misses expectations: employment weakens, the market lowers rate hike probability, the US dollar weakens, benefiting assets like BTC and gold. $BTC $ETH $ZEC My first reaction was: this smell, I’ve smelled it in the last round too. When the market is all red, on-chain players tend to hear “risk appetite is back” as “all sectors should rise,” but I would rather first look at who hasn’t kept up.
In this daily report, Apple’s closing market value reached $5.08 trillion, Microsoft and Amazon rose over 6%; Brent crude oil fell 8.46%, yet Bitcoin mining companies and hash rate stocks generally dropped by double digits. The material also mentioned that at least 29 community referendums across the U.S. support restricting data centers.
My judgment is that this looks more like a risk repricing within the cycle, not a broad rally signal for the crypto industry. The oil price decline helps ease inflation expectations, but mining companies still have to face energy and local policy constraints; compared to the familiar sentiment transmission in the last round, the real resistance in the hash rate sector is more glaring this time. If the macro environment continues to improve, I will watch whether capital can spread, rather than just focusing on tech giants. Do veteran players have the same sense of familiarity, and what signal will they take from mining companies falling behind?The order book just jumped a bit, BTC is still grinding in place, while altcoins have already started heating up. Is this round of sentiment really a recovery, or just a brief breather? My first impression watching the screen is: the sentiment is back, but it's very selective. BTC is hesitating, ETH occasionally steals the spotlight, but the ones really bouncing fast are those small-cap coins. This structure doesn't look like a full recovery; it’s more like risk appetite has only opened a small crack, letting the lightest assets squeeze in first. AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled, with revenue and guidance beating expectations, while Apple's revenue also beat expectations but its gross margin guidance is under pressure — these two things together are interesting: the market is now not just looking at "how much was earned in the past," but more at "whether the future is promising." Earnings are retrospective, guidance is forward-looking, and prices often trade on the expectation gap between the two. In crypto, the logic is very similar. BTC is the big player with great earnings and fully priced-in expectations; to go higher, it needs new surprises, not just "meeting expectations." ETH seems to be waiting for its own guidance — upgrades, ecosystem, and whether capital is willing to give valuation in advance. Altcoins are the most sentiment-sensitive end; with a slight rise in risk appetite, they move first, but are also the easiest to be crushed back if expectations fall short. The more bullish path is: sentiment continues to recover, BTC holds steady without breaking key support, ETH follows and strengthens, altcoin rebounds gain sustainability, and sector rotation changes from "random bounces" to "rhythmic diffusion." The potential risk is: this altcoin strength looks more like a sentiment pulse, if BTC delays giving direction.$BTC has returned above 80000, at 80621.
This wave bounced up nearly 5000 from 75690, but I think it's more like a recovery from the sharp drop a few days ago, not a direct rally from major good news.
When it dropped a few days ago, it was partly due to the Binance security incident scaring people, partly because ETF funds were flowing out, plus the macro pressure from rate hike expectations. Now that the election results are gradually coming out and uncertainty has lessened a bit, shorts who have made enough money are starting to cover, and bottom-fishers are coming in, so the price bounced back.
However, we still can't say it's a reversal yet. The area from 81000 to 82000 is a dense trading zone from a few days ago, so there's considerable resistance. This time the highest it touched was 81199 before dropping, indicating selling pressure above.
If it can't hold above 81000, it will likely retest around 78000 later. Chasing longs now carries significant risk; those with profits in hand can consider taking some off the table.
The market is volatile, and short-term moves are easily driven by news and leveraged funds, so don't get carried away #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The shoe has finally dropped: the Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of Congress, directly breaking the White House and Congress's one-party dominance. Subsequently, the Trump administration's fiscal, trade, and digital asset regulations will face strong checks and balances.
Currently, BTC is slightly up 1.04%, and the market looks relatively stable. But experienced traders know that major macro events often mean "buy the rumor, sell the fact." According to historical patterns, after each election, BTC usually first retraces to shake out weak hands before rebounding. This round's decline may decrease, and the bottom might come earlier. More importantly, the market consensus is too uniform now, leading to thin order books, making it easy for minor fluctuations to trigger long-short stampedes.
Therefore, the short position logic I set at 79488 still holds; now it's about holding and waiting for a pullback. If it really drops due to negative news, don't panic; a drop is actually a good opportunity to accumulate spot positions in batches. Watch out for short-term spikes, but in the long run, no matter who controls Congress, the enactment of crypto legislation remains a long and drawn-out game. Everyone should manage their positions, set stop losses, and trade with the trend. $BTC #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 Midterm elections concluded, BTC returns to 80,000: recovery or reversal?
Conclusion first: the recovery after the negative news is not yet a reversal.
Market overview: During voting, "strict regulation" panic pushed BTC below 76,000; after results, US stocks and crypto both rose, BTC returned to 80,000 (around 80,700), up about +4% in 24h, ETH about +6%.
Policy outlook (midterm slightly bearish)
Democrats control Congress, CLARITY Act blocked in Senate, weakening crypto legislation expectations;
Fed neither raises nor cuts rates, Goldman Sachs pushes first rate cut to December 2026;
China-US summit was just an emotional pulse.
Support and resistance
Resistance: 80,000, need volume to hold before next move;
Support: 76,500, break below looks to previous lows.
My judgment: expect consolidation between 76,000–80,000 range. Enter on volume breakout, lower expectations if broken. Chasing highs and lows in consolidation is most costly.
What do you think? Can 80,000 hold? Discuss in comments 👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC bounced back to just over eighty thousand, $ETH jumped seven percent in one day, and the screen is full of "the bottom has come" again. Let's put emotions aside first and look at the most straightforward indicator: trading volume.
The price has been going up these past two days, but the volume has dried up to almost nothing; there's no sign of increased volume at all. When the price rises but volume doesn't follow, it’s not incremental funds bottom-fishing; it’s shorts being squeezed out and forced to cover, pushing the price up. Most of the positions liquidated in the past few hours were shorts, not longs adding positions.
In other words, this is a volume-shrinking short squeeze, not a trend reversal. The characteristic of a short squeeze is that it’s fast and fierce, but without volume support underneath, the higher it goes, the deeper it might fall back.
The biggest taboo in poker is to be scared off and fold because of an opponent’s big bluff, forgetting to check how many real chips are in the pot. The market is the same—don’t listen to the price shouting; look at the volume.Today, the Hong Kong stock market surged with heavy volume, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising nearly 5%, Alibaba up over 7%, and Tencent up 5 points, painting a very bullish picture. But when you break down individual stocks, the story is completely different.
In the same market, Zhongji Xuchuang fell 7.7%, Changfei Optical Fiber dropped 9 points, and hardware stocks like optical communication and PCB—those "shovel sellers"—collectively hit the bottom. The gainers are platforms making money from AI, while the losers are suppliers building the roads for AI.
This is not just a sentiment unique to Hong Kong stocks; global capital is doing the same thing: repricing AI infrastructure. Last night, the US semiconductor index fell alone, and chip stocks were pressured—that's one thing. Today, Hong Kong hardware lagging behind is the same story.
Capital is voting with its feet, starting to doubt who can actually recoup costs in this endlessly money-burning road-building business. Who is selling the shovels, and who is digging up the gold? This round of differentiation will make the answer increasingly clear.The fund account and price account of ETFs should not be mixed when viewed. My first reaction upon seeing this news was: net inflow is certainly a good thing, but directly treating the product scale as new buying volume can easily lead to counting the same optimism twice.
According to PANews citing SoSoValue data, on November 4th Eastern US time, the total net inflow of the US ZEC spot ETF was $3,429,500, with only ZCSH recording a net inflow. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of the related ETFs is $757 million, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $218 million.
My judgment is that this news is valuable for observing the capital demand of $ZEC but insufficient for judging short-term price direction. The single-day net inflow reflects the net result of subscriptions and redemptions on that day; the total net asset value is also affected by changes in the valuation of holdings and cannot be understood as all new money invested by investors.
Cumulative net inflow also has its own time scale: it records how much capital has accumulated in the past and does not represent today's purchasing strength. If the asset scale expands later but net inflow does not increase correspondingly, I would first break down the valuation impact rather than directly conclude that demand is heating up—this is my observation approach, not a situation that has already occurred.
When looking at this kind of daily report, which would you put in the first column: "single-day net inflow" or "total net asset value"? How would the other indicator change your judgment? Major political upheaval in the US 🇺🇸, the US stock market directly staged a hardcore repricing
The capital market's abacus beads are rattling the loudest; this rotation means capital is reassessing policy privileges and computing power barriers
Computing power cools down, who's laughing?
Companies like $CRWV and $APLD, which rely on high leverage to issue bonds to acquire land and build data centers, previously had valuations fully supported by loose policies. Now with policy changes in Texas, electricity, water fees, and the cost of hearings and investigations have sharply increased
On the contrary, cloud giants like $AMZN and $MSFT are the ones laughing last. New construction slows, making existing cloud infrastructure a scarce asset; and by curbing overheated capital expenditures, free cash flow in financial reports instantly looks better
The clearing of political-business tied asset premiums
Elon Musk's $TSLA and $SPCX previously included excessive political premiums. With new congressional leadership, the scrutiny sword hangs overhead; any large mergers or special regulatory exemptions will be examined under a magnifying glass, naturally causing the market to discount uncertainty first
AI infrastructure accelerates reshuffling
High borrowing costs and local environmental regulations will accelerate the elimination of second-tier data centers with poor self-sustaining capabilities, rapidly concentrating the industry toward giants holding ready-made assets
Defensive sectors' long-term recovery
Stocks like $HCA and $FSLR are not just short-term safe havens; sectors with high compliance requirements like clean energy and healthcare with policy-backed foundations may experience a wave of structural long-term recovery
The market isn't thinking the economy is failing; it's just retracting the previously overdrawn policy conveniences #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Trump concept coins saw an overnight "faith collapse": lost the election, and not even the meme coins are being picked up?
TRUMP token dropped 17% in 24 hours, now at $1.33; WLFI fell 7% to 0.047; Melania coin dropped nearly 13%, even VANCE, which just rides the name, fell 12%.
DJT was worse, closing at 4.49, down 24.54% in a single day, breaking through historical lows. Trump's net worth evaporated by $73 million in the morning. The total market cap of political meme coins shrank 16% to 477 million, while trading volume surged 123%—this is not bottom-fishing, it's a stampede to escape.
The logic is not complicated at all.
These assets are anchored not in cash flow but in political narrative premium from start to finish. With the Democrats taking both houses, the first thing they said was to investigate Trump's family's crypto business. WLFI was named as the primary investigation target, and ethical clauses might be introduced to directly restrict officials from touching crypto. Once the narrative breaks, the premium naturally drops to zero.
Interestingly, Bitcoin rose 4% during the same period, surpassing 80,000, indicating this is not a problem for crypto overall, but the word "Trump" alone has been kicked out of the market's pricing model.
My view is simple: don't buy in.
When you buy TRUMP, you're buying the expectation that "he's still in charge on stage." Now that Congress is lost and the investigation sword hangs overhead, what is the next catalyst for this token?
There is none. Meme coins have no fundamental support; once the political narrative breaks, liquidity disappears just like that The midterm election votes are being counted, and the screen is full of people counting how many seats each side has won. For traders, the focus should be elsewhere.
An institution put it very bluntly today: if the Democrats take Congress, U.S. fiscal policy will most likely tighten in 2027, with new stimulus almost out of the question. Moreover, three things will be re-examined: tariffs, defense spending, and the depreciation policy on capital expenditures.
The first two are routine moves, but the third is a hidden risk beneath the AI narrative. The reason tech giants have been so aggressively investing in building data centers over the past two years largely comes from the tax law allowing rapid depreciation of capital expenditures. Changing this would directly increase the cost of burning cash.
The market is still excited about the "rate cut bull market," and few are pricing in the risk on the capex front. My habit is to look at the card that hasn’t been flipped yet when others are focused on the scoreboard.I actually took a closer look at the term "programmable payments." In the futures market, settlement rules are often more important than the order placement interface; how money is transferred and under what conditions directly affect whether the entire business chain can operate smoothly. This time, Visa is setting up six global capability centers in Singapore, covering areas like AI and stablecoins.
The crypto market is different. Instructions executable on-chain may not directly fit into a company's payment approval and accountability processes. From my perspective, this news is more significant for corporate payments than for stimulating coin prices. My guess is that if programmable payments can integrate with existing corporate processes, stablecoins will more easily evolve from a mere transfer tool into a tool usable in daily operations; otherwise, even if the technology advances quickly, finance departments may still hesitate to release funds.
With my old futures mindset, I still place more importance on whether the rules can be implemented. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When companies use stablecoins for payments, do you think the hardest part to integrate is the approval authority or the accountability mechanism after errors occur? Midterm election uncertainty settles, BTC returns above 80,000, but the driver of this rally is not spot buying, rather concentrated short covering. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $992 million, with shorts at $577 million and longs at $415 million; BTC shorts liquidated $310 million, longs only $87.49 million. The price was pushed up by liquidations.
$BTC: around 80,000–80,800. ETF net outflows have continued for three days totaling $1.16 billion, IBIT single-day $405 million is the largest in four months, annual cumulative net inflow once turned negative. 76,000–76,600 is short-term support, 81,700 is daily resistance.
$ETH: around 2,420. Up over 6% intraday, the strongest among the three coins. But ETH ETF net outflows have continued for seven days totaling $656 million, October bleeding $1.61 billion, ETHA alone accounting for $1.42 billion. Product side is withdrawing, price is rising, divergence remains uncorrected.
$SOL: around 95. SOL ETF net outflows have continued for four days, on-chain activity is weakening in sync, SOL is caught between ETF outflows and on-chain cooling.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls expected to add 65,000, December rate hike bets remain high. For these three coins, the awaited event is the same: after short squeeze ends, will spot buyers be willing to take over.
For record of market conditions only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 "Only ZCSH shows net inflow," this was the first part I circled when I saw this message. To pour some cold water first: I acknowledge that the direction of funds is positive, but I do not agree with directly translating it as "the entire privacy sector is fully recovering." The report states that the total net inflow for the ZEC spot ETF on the day was $3,429,500, with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $218 million; the numbers are positive, but the interpretation should not be leveraged all the way.
I am stuck on two logics. First, the inflow is concentrated in a single product, which only indicates where the new funds landed this time; it cannot prove that demand has spread, nor can it endorse the entire privacy sector. Second, demand for ETF shares does not equal on-chain usage demand. My speculation is that if the market treats inflows on the allocation side as growth on the application side, then the sentiment in the related sector might be running ahead of the evidence. For ordinary players, the easiest pitfall is to see the fund changes of one product as a pass for the entire sector.
Of course, bulls might have a broader view than I do; concentrated inflows are not necessarily bad and might indicate that demand is emerging first from one entry point. If more products subsequently show net inflows, supported by independent data confirming actual usage demand improvement, I will adjust my judgment. For now, I record this as a positive signal at the product level and am not in a hurry to endorse the entire sector."$UNI
I'm not chasing this UNI wave.
Opened at 7.089, peaked at 7.819, now at 7.745, about nine points. Yesterday when it was 6.98, I wrote that the buy orders withdrew themselves; today it broke through yesterday's high of 7.406 and kept going up. Mistakes were made.
When flipping the order book, I found something reversed. Within UNI ±1%, buys are 278,000 and sells 266,000, roughly balanced; in the same period ETH has buys of 88,000 versus sells of 258,000. Both are rising, but the order book structures are completely different.
The volume is even stranger. At 01:00, the 1H candle had 870,000 contracts, then none of the next twelve candles exceeded 700,000, at 10:00 only 330,000 left, yet the price stayed flat between 7.6 and 7.7.
The fee rate is exactly 0.01%, no premium at all. Open interest is 47.49 million, contract volume is 166 million versus spot 31 million, more than five times.
The reason I'm not chasing is simple: it's only one point away from 7.819, the odds at this level don't look good. If 7.6 doesn't hold, then we'll reconsider.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BlackRock’s $IBIT recorded a single-day net outflow of $405.3 million, the largest in more than four months and enough to exceed the $398.6 million pulled from all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs combined. That detail matters more than the headline number: one fund did not merely lead the retreat, it accounted for more than the entire market’s net redemption. When the largest issuer becomes the marginal seller, the ETF complex stops acting as a passive mirror of demand and starts amplifying it. $BTC has Brother 800 loves Ethereum finance, profiting 280,000 USD
BTC touched 80,000, but this upward momentum mainly comes from short covering rather than spot buying. In the past 24 hours, about 577 million USD in short positions across the network were adjusted, longs about 415 million; BTC shorts about 310 million, longs only 87.49 million. The price was pushed up by liquidations.
$BTC: around 80,000. ETF net outflows for three consecutive days, 115.6 million on November 3, IBIT accounts for 94.98 million, but the outflow speed has slowed compared to nearly 400 million on Monday. Money is withdrawing, slow withdrawal does not mean return.
$ETH: around 2,430, up 6.7% in 24 hours, strongest among the three coins. ETF net outflows for seven consecutive days totaling 85.34 million, ETHA accounts for 74.43 million; but exchange ETH reserves dropped to about 14.5 million tokens, the lowest since 2016. Products are withdrawing, on-chain is locking.
$SOL: around 93. SOL ETF net outflows for four consecutive days, but on-chain active addresses hit a 13-month high, with 1.7 million new wallets daily. Users are increasing, invested money is decreasing.
Friday's employment data is expected to add 65,000 jobs, with about 74% expectation for December policy. All three coins are waiting for the same thing: after short covering ends, whether spot buyers are willing to take over.
For record only, not investment advice.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ETH
A wallet slept for a whole year, then woke up and sold over six million USD worth of ETH and stETH. Does this count as dumping?
At 11:21, I specifically verified the numbers in that news flash. 6.357 million. ETH spot trading volume is 538 million USD per day, and this single transaction accounts for 1.2%. If it were really dumping, this volume wouldn't even make a splash.
The price is actually stronger. It moved from 2255 to 2451 in 24 hours, now at 2426, up 7.5%.
What made me sit down and watch was the order book. Within ±1%, buy orders are at 88,000, sell orders at 258,000, a ratio of three to one. With such a thick sell wall above, yet the price hasn't dropped, it means someone is firmly absorbing the selling below.
The fee rate is 0.0049%, only half the benchmark. Open interest is 1.54 billion, slightly less than this morning. Contract 24-hour volume is 10 billion, spot 538 million, an 18x ratio. Pricing power lies with the perpetual contracts, not the spot market.
A thick sell wall doesn't mean a price drop. But if the price really wants to go up, it has to chew through those 250,000 sell orders first, otherwise every attempt to surge will just feed the sellers.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Someone asked me again if I have closed my short position. I haven't, and the more I look, the more confident I feel.
This round of shorting is never about whether a particular chip manufacturer is profitable; it's about the financing chain fueling this AI arms race. A news piece tonight clearly illustrates the issue: several large hedge funds have started publicly warning that private credit risks are rising, all tied to significant AI-related exposures, clashing with persistently high interest rates.
High equity valuations are obvious; everyone can see that. The real danger lies in the leverage hidden within private credit, and no one can say where this web will first crack if cash flows fail to materialize.
Anyone who plays cards knows that where the chips come from is more important than how strong your hand is. When your opponent is going all in with borrowed money, what you need to do is not blindly follow but calculate when they must reveal their cards. Assets like $BTC, which are most sensitive to liquidity, often give you the first answer.The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, with the Democratic Party unexpectedly winning a landslide victory and regaining control of both chambers of Congress. This outcome represents a significant setback to President Trump's efforts to influence Federal Reserve monetary policy through personnel appointments and political pressure. Analysts point out that Democratic control of the Senate, especially the Banking Committee, will substantially block Trump's ability to place loyalists on the Federal Reserve Board, providing an institutional safeguard for the central bank's independence. According to the U.S. system, the President nominates Federal Reserve Board members, but they must be confirmed by the Senate. The Senate Banking Committee is responsible for reviewing nominations and deciding whether to submit them for a full Senate vote. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is expected to chair the Banking Committee; she has long supported the Fed's independence and criticized Trump's attempts to bring the central bank under White House influence. Under her leadership, the committee may adopt a stricter review stance toward Trump's Fed nominees, even shelving candidates deemed lacking independence. Market Impact Analysis For investors, the election results change the political risk premium surrounding U.S. monetary policy but do not alter the recent interest rate path. The Fed's decisions will still depend on inflation, employment, and economic growth data rather than political pressure. However, the likelihood of the Fed being politicized decreases, which may reduce the risk premium on long-term government bonds and support the dollar's status as a stable reserve currency. Stock Market: The market may interpret the election results as a reduction in policy uncertainty. Interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology and real estate may benefit, as the Fed is seen as more independent and less likely to be forced into premature easing Crude oil has already shed the US-Iran risk premium, and pricing power has returned to the Middle East geopolitical risk itself.
Previously, the short positions near 98 have fully captured the election-driven price suppression profits around 92 dollars, reaching my take-profit level. Do not continue to chase shorts afterward; be prepared to go long.
Theoretical perspective on crude oil:
1. The midterm election price suppression has succeeded, with the Democratic Party winning.
Before the election, oil prices had fallen from the high of 102.8 to around 97-98 dollars and stabilized.
After the Democratic victory, administrative measures to suppress oil prices will intensify.
Russia’s diesel and Venezuelan crude oil are being released on a large scale to supplement supply.
After the Republican defeat, it will be difficult for Trump to directly attack Iran.
Supply is gradually easing, US-Iran conflict is on hold, and oil prices naturally decline.
2. US-Iran risk is temporarily on hold, but Middle East geopolitical risk remains.
The Strait of Hormuz carries 30% of global seaborne crude oil transport.
Iran’s control over navigation, attacks on ships, and mine incidents have not eased.
Oil transportation costs remain high; ships still detour and queue for clearance.
Oil prices are unlikely to fall below 80, with only rebound potential.
3. Iran is still manipulating the Houthi forces.
Latest news today: the Houthis are demanding 51 billion, while Saudi Arabia only wants a ceasefire.
If not paid, they cause trouble; that’s the Houthis.
The Houthis attack Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and occupy the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The Houthis are connected to Iran.
4. Trump currently cannot negotiate with Iran and has shut himself off.
The Democrats are preparing to impeach the Secretary of Defense to gradually remove threats.
The Secretary of Defense is a pro-war faction; if impeachment succeeds, crude oil may fall a bit more.
Risks remain; oil prices are suppressed, and conflicts have not substantially eased.
A rebound in crude oil still exists.
Currently, all crude oil positions are flat; the 103 short position and 105 short position have profited, and the 98 short position is also profitable around 92. The current strategy for crude oil is to go long at low levels.
Election-driven price suppression is a short-term sentiment; supply-demand imbalance and geopolitical risks are the fundamentals. The pullback is sentiment release, and the rebound is value recovery. I will place a long order at 83.5, waiting for the post-impeachment decline and the geopolitical sentiment to heat up again for a rebound, with a stop loss at 80 and a target at 91.🔍 Apple ascends to the throne, but chip stocks are falling— is this really a broad tech rally? According to this report, Apple's market value has surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, Microsoft and Amazon rose 6.68% and 6.12% respectively, Brent crude oil dropped 8.46%; meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.13%.
An interesting detail here: the report mentions at least 29 community referendums supporting restrictions on data centers. But "political uncertainty clearing" and "the Iran war possibly ending" are still explanations and bets—I won’t treat them as settled outcomes.
Here’s my speculation: this looks more like a capital re-evaluation of risks within tech rather than a death sentence for the entire AI sector. Community restrictions might block expansions, first impacting businesses reliant on new computing power; Apple’s rise can’t be taken as proof of chip demand. Let’s not jump to conclusions yet.
I will keep watching the strength gap between semiconductors and big tech. Do you think the divergence will converge, or will the computing power chain continue to lag? Let’s watch the follow-up together and see who guesses closer.Here's the situation: the NEAR community just passed a governance proposal to gradually lower the annual issuance cap from 2.5% to 1.6% over the next 24 months. According to the proposal's estimates, about 11.8 million fewer NEAR tokens will be issued over the next two years. Currently, the coin price is about $4.05, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $948 million, an increase of about 50% compared to the previous day. I find this change quite interesting. Previously, public chains lThis feels a bit like the previous round: whenever a traditional payment giant makes a move, the community tends to take it as a signal of a new cycle. I find Visa's move familiar—it has set up six global capability centers in Singapore, gathering over 1,500 professionals focusing on AI, stablecoins, programmable payments, and more.
But this time, I'm more interested in the engineering and positions rather than just the phrase "giant entering the field." Visa has already launched USDC settlement in the US, so it has at least a business foundation; its partners include banks and payment companies, making the payment scenarios more concrete than just talking about concepts. However, with over 1,500 people serving multiple directions, not all can be counted as stablecoin investment.
My judgment: this is a step toward the industry's application construction phase, where payment infrastructure benefits more directly than broad concept tokens. If the expansion is realized, it indicates resources are still moving toward implementation. I'll be watching whether engineering investment continues and won't rush to label this as a bull market.$BNB Chain is launching this new chain with a 200ms block time, and the most impressive part is that it clearly won't issue new tokens.
All high-frequency trading gas fees across the network are deducted in BNB.
CZ's statement "multiple chains, one coin" effectively blocks all other paths.
No matter how the side chains try to operate, all traffic and token burns ultimately have to flow back into the single BNB pool.
This intense squeeze on the market means shorts paying interest daily won't hold out for long.
#BNB
$BNB
👇Hayes did not talk about halving this time, nor about ETFs; he talked about AI company stocks.
The supply of shares from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI is increasing, and there is a batch of unlocks waiting to be realized in the future. When supply increases, stock prices come under pressure, and the debt financing costs behind these companies also rise. This sounds like a matter for the US stock market, but it is a pipeline leading to the crypto space.
The other end of the pipeline is the banks. Once the AI credit market cools down, the growth of banks' balance sheets will slow or even contract. The portion of US dollar liquidity supporting the crypto market comes from the expansion of banks. So the real question is not whether AI stocks will fall, but whether the credit expansion tap will be turned off.
Hayes' conclusion is straightforward: unless there is a major change in fiat liquidity, Maelstrom will remain on the sidelines for now. What he is waiting for is not the price, but two things—how much water the AI IPO wave will draw out, and whether there will be another round of policy rescue.
This framework is worth remembering: the tops and bottoms of $BTC often are not on-chain but on someone else's balance sheet. Currently, the trends of $ETH and $SOL also cannot escape this line. The real signal is not a certain price point, but whether subscriptions will still be in demand at the next AI company pricing.The long-short ratio of OKEx ETH perpetual contracts dropped by half in one day.
At 11 AM yesterday, it was still 2.55, the highest in three days; at 11 AM today, it dropped to only 1.28, having even touched the lowest point in three days during the early morning. ETH rose nearly 8% in the same period, with open interest almost unchanged, only down by a bit over three thousand contracts.
Despite the significant rise, more traders shifted to the short side. The total volume didn’t increase, indicating that no much new money came in; it’s the same batch of positions rotating.
The big players’ side moved in the opposite direction. The long-short ratio of the top 5% accounts was 0.87 at 11 AM yesterday and 0.97 at 11 AM today. On the less populated side, positions increasingly leaned long.
What I said yesterday was that if at 11 AM today the open interest was 30,000 contracts more and the ratio still stood at 2.5, I would admit I underestimated the bullishness. Neither condition was met, so that statement stands.
Therefore, when looking at the long-short ratio by number of traders, don’t just focus on its level; compare it together with the big players’ position ratio. If by 11 AM tomorrow the top 5% position ratio falls back below 0.92, it means big players also exited longs. If so, I misread today’s layer and will admit it then.Don't be fooled by the candlestick chart: The "blood-stained clearing" behind the sharp rally
BTC surged sharply from 75,600 to 81,100, rising over 4% in 24 hours, and the whole network is shouting "bull return" and "rebound."
But don't get ahead of yourself. Switch to the capital side, and you'll see another world:
On one side, retail investors are celebrating wildly; on the other, institutions are making a mass exodus.
The US spot BTC ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, withdrawing a total of $1.157 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT alone pulled out $734 million. The price is rising, but institutions are cashing out at highs.
Now look at the truth behind this rally, three sets of data are painful:
1. Shorts were sacrificed: The whole network liquidated 936 million, of which shorts accounted for 533 million. This sharp rise was purely driven by short squeeze buying.
2. No newcomers at all: The price rose 4%, but open interest (OI) actually dropped 4.36%. Volume expanded, but positions shrank. What does this mean? Old shorts gave up and closed positions, while new longs did not enter at all.
3. Clearing of existing funds: This is not big money building positions, but someone using liquidity to conduct a large-scale cleanup.
The conclusion is straightforward: This is not the start of a bull market; someone is forcibly paving a beautiful fake path using the corpses of shorts. Don't blindly catch the falling knife. $BTC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 No way? Two AI on-chain contract stocks in the Hong Kong market surged more than ten points in one day, yet large long positions are still showing losses on paper 😂
$ZHIPU corresponding to Zhipu and $MINIMAX corresponding to MiniMax are both perpetual contracts listed on-chain for Hong Kong stocks. In the past 24 hours, they have risen about 11% and 13%, currently priced around $60.5 and $21.7 respectively, looking like a V-shaped recovery.
Counting only single positions not less than $100,000, among the 6 large long positions in Zhipu, only 2 are in profit, with a combined floating loss of about $1.83 million. The weighted average entry price is around 75.66, still quite far from breakeven. On the short side, 14 large positions have a weighted entry price around 77, currently profitable, but 2 positions are already close to the breakeven line.
MiniMax is a bit easier; among 3 large long positions, 2 have turned green, with a combined floating loss of only about $8,800. The weighted entry price is 22.21, almost back to breakeven. On the short side, 5 large orders have a weighted entry price around 34, with a floating profit of about $550,000.
From my perspective, this rebound can still continue for a while. MiniMax longs are almost breathing a sigh of relief, while Zhipu needs to touch back to around 75, with a tough battle in between.
For beginners, I suggest watching more and trading less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Ethereum usability improves, but ETH economic model deteriorates Ethereum network is becoming cheaper and more efficient, but the value capture of its native token has not kept pace. Large enterprise Ethereum holder BitMine has an unrealized loss exceeding $4 billion and prioritizes stock buybacks over continuing to purchase ETH. In October, Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, 1.37 million ETH are queued for staking, indicating some holders still have long-term confidence despite bearish market sentiment. Disconnect between utility and value The core issue lies in the broken transmission chain between network utility and token value. Mainnet fees have dropped significantly, with the base fee rate at only 0.06 Gwei. ENS abandoned its dedicated L2 plan, and the highly anticipated Glamsterdam upgrade was delayed due to audit risks. These developments depict a more user-friendly and cheaper network, but ETH's monetary properties are weakening. At a base fee rate of 0.06 Gwei, Ethereum has shifted from a deflationary asset to a daily net issuance. The burn mechanism that once made ETH a “super sound money” is now almost ineffective. This structural shift means that even with increased adoption, ETH supply is growing, diluting holders' equity. Institutional caution and staking demand ETF fund outflows and BitMine's strategic shift reflect broader institutional caution. BitMine's decision to buy back stock rather than increase ETH holdings indicates corporate treasuries are reassessing the risk-return profile of holding the asset. However, the staking queue of 1.37 million ETHUSDC growing bigger does not mean Circle is earning more
Circle is about to release its financial report, and everyone watching is focused on stablecoin scale.
Scale increases, but money doesn't necessarily follow.
The rule is: it earns interest on reserves
USDC is backed by cash and short-term debt, and the interest belongs to it.
Part of this interest must also be shared with channel partners.
Common misunderstanding: scale does not equal profit
Interest is collected based on scale, and the portion shared out is also based on scale.
As yields drop, the extra scale will be divided and consumed.
Working backward, if scale grows by 10%, profit might only grow by 5%.
The only thing left to improve is business diversification.
One-time gains propping up numbers in the financial report won't repeat next quarter.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
#$USDC I see that for large position openings, the habit is to first convert profit and loss into money, then look at the direction. My judgment is: the position size only indicates how much is staked, it does not indicate how accurate the judgment is; beginners should learn to set a loss budget.
This time Core Trader 25 (0xc3d101…d200e) opened a long HYPE position with 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $100,000. Roughly calculated by leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $10,000, but this does not mean the wallet only bears this much risk; the margin mode and subsequent operations must also be considered.
📌For example: if the price moves 1% against the position, this position would have an unrealized loss of about $1,000, which is about 10% of the above margin, excluding fees for now. The nominal position determines how much money corresponds to price fluctuations, while leverage amplifies the rate at which margin is consumed. Beginners often use "how much margin I can pay" as the basis for position size, but do not calculate how much they will lose when stop loss is triggered. My reminder to myself is: first set how much you can afford to lose, then work backward to determine the position size. The loss for Trump's camp was larger than most had anticipated before the race—the real highlight is not the result itself, but that it exposed a previously overlooked pricing blind spot in the market. Over the past few months, a portion of funds in the crypto market had been preemptively pricing in "regulatory easing," treating policy benefits as a given. Now that the Democrats have taken control of both houses of Congress, the foundation of this narrative has weakened. Many key issues will need to be renegotiated and repeatedly contested with the Democrats, and the industry deregulation legislation that the market eagerly anticipated is unlikely to materialize in the short term. In other words, those policy expectations that were prematurely priced in now require a collective correction. There is an easily underestimated secondary effect here: a disappointment in expectations does not mean funds will immediately withdraw; rather, it enters a "re-pricing" digestion period. After the news is announced, the market will first reassess and then observe how funds absorb this wave of volatility. What truly determines the short-term direction is not the news headline, but the liquidity's capacity to support this expectation adjustment. $BTC, as the sentiment anchor, will react first to set the tone; $ETH and $SOL are more likely to amplify swings in risk appetite, and if funds choose to wait and see, the volatility of high-beta assets will be more pronounced. My judgment is: the market had been overly optimistic in pricing policy benefits, and this result constitutes an "expectation gap correction," with short-term bearish pressure coming from expectation retracement rather than fundamental deterioration. The confirmation signal is simple—watch whether trading volume contracts during the pullback; if selling pressure is absorbed in an orderly manner, it indicates a healthy expectation recalibration; if volume expands and breaks down, it meansThis surge, frankly, boils down to two reasons:
First, the election results have been finalized. The Democrats won quite clearly, so the market's lingering uncertainty finally has an answer. US stock risk appetite has warmed up, and crypto has followed suit.
Second, the shorts got squeezed hard. After the price broke through 80,000, short positions were forced to close, and liquidations pushed the rally, amplifying the speed of the rise. This kind of rally comes fast but lacks a solid foundation.
The key issue is this: spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about 1.16 billion over three consecutive days as of November 3. The capital flow simply does not support the claim that "ETFs are driving this." So this wave looks more like a short-term emotional release, and its sustainability still needs to be observed.
Don't rush to call a reversal or a bull comeback. Only if it can steadily hold above 82,800 will this round of correction truly be over. Until then, any rebound is just a rebound.
Unfortunately, the short positions around 78,200/2300 yesterday were stopped out at 79,400/2360, I admit that trade. Fortunately, the early morning shorting captured quite a bit of room, so overall no loss. Afterwards, I stayed flat and didn't rush to open new positions.
Why not open more? Because once you stop out on a trade, emotions tend to run high, and you rush into a second trade—which often carries the "recover losses" burden.
So I don't like, nor do I recommend, consecutive trades. Don't let emotions control you; give yourself some buffer time and give the market some time to consolidate.
$BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ What I'm focusing on is the "small" aspect of this round of financing: Solana financing and governance platform MetaDAO has launched MetaDAO Apps, targeting consumer app founders, with both the financing scale and the token allocation ratio for supporters lower than conventional financing. Founders can sell the tokens they've earned earlier after achieving performance milestones and complying with sales restrictions. 👀
This is somewhat interesting, but I think it adds emotional value to the consumer app sector, which doesn't necessarily mean small coins generally benefit. Financing provides an additional path for app development; the lower allocation ratio for supporters also doesn't directly imply the tokens are more attractive. If the hype spreads to highly volatile assets, there might be a window of attention, but sentiment running ahead of the product also increases the risk of pullbacks.
My observation sequence is to first see if the app can retain users, then how milestones are validated, and not to rush to treat financing news as proof of value. What sectors in consumer apps have people been paying attention to recently: social, gaming, or payments? Don't fantasize that this news will directly send BTC to the moon.
The Democrats took control of both chambers, but BTC's current gain is only +0.17%, and the sentiment has basically been priced in.
The real risk lies in new crypto legislation aiming to expand SEC regulatory powers, a shackle that will clamp down on both BTC and ETH.
BTC has enough scale and resilience, so it will most likely just trade sideways with some choppy consolidation.
ETH isn't as stable. With more business touchpoints, once regulation tightens, ETH's volatility will be fiercer. Even if BTC holds steady, ETH can easily be dumped separately.
The internet is in an uproar, debating whether this is bullish or bearish for BTC and ETH. But the money has already played out in advance.
Next up, BTC and ETH will just oscillate and shake out positions, specifically targeting traders betting on news. A slight pump will lure you in, then reverse to trigger stop losses.
There's no need to stubbornly bet on BTC or ETH's short-term direction. Policy expectations are too uncertain, and this kind of money is hard to make.
$BTC C $ETH #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The retail long-short ratio for SOL is still 3.20, while for whales it's only 1.45!
OKX perpetual 1-hour data (as of 12:00 Beijing time): The overall BTC account long-short ratio dropped from about 2.51 to about 1.51 in 24 hours, with elite traders left at about 1.07; ETH overall about 1.38, elite about 1.05. SOL is even more extreme, retail about 3.20 versus whales about 1.45 — overnight short squeeze pushed it back above 80,000, retail holders of the main coin finally took some profit, but SOL retail is still aggressively accumulating longs. Spot BTC is about $80350 (12:17 Beijing time, Coinbase). Chart source: OKX.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 Semiconductor sector takes a heavy hit! Intel plunges, AMD dives, SanDisk continues to be under pressure! I have a bold judgment: the real test for AI chips may just be beginning!
Once wildly chased by Wall Street, semiconductors are now facing consecutive sell-offs!
Last Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted about 7.2% in a single day!
Intel dropped nearly 29%, AMD fell nearly 11%, and SanDisk plunged 13.47%!
Why are semiconductor stocks suddenly crashing collectively despite strong AI demand?
The answer may lie in three signals!
🔥 First: AI investment returns are being questioned!
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to pour huge funds into building data centers, but Wall Street is starting to worry: when will such massive capital expenditures actually turn into profits?
⚠️ Second: The storage chip price hike cycle is being tested!
Kioxia signals a slowdown in NAND price increases, and the market begins to worry whether the high profitability of the storage chip industry can be sustained!
💥 Third: The U.S. political landscape is changing!
With the Democrats winning both houses of Congress, the market is starting to focus on whether future AI infrastructure construction will face stricter scrutiny!
So, will semiconductors continue to hit new lows?
I believe short-term caution is still needed for further adjustments!
Focus on whether the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can hold the previous low near 10,439 points!
If it breaks below again and continues to weaken, the downside risk may further increase To pour some cold water first, I don't take a large long position as evidence of a bullish outlook. Seeing such an order, I'm more interested in knowing what it relies on to admit a mistake, rather than imagining confidence for the wallet owner. My judgment is: this trade is worth watching, but not enough to make me change my cautious stance.
Core Trader 92 (0xd89c73…adc01) opened a long $ZEC position with 10x leverage, holding 100 coins, nominal value about $131,900, reference price $1,319. I'm stuck on two points: first, roughly calculating initial margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, about $13,190; if the price moves 5% against, the unrealized loss is about $6,595, which is half of this estimated margin, and actual liquidation depends on margin mode and other conditions. Second, monitoring only shows this long position, without full asset and hedge arrangements, so the position size can't be directly translated into directional conviction. If someone chases longs just based on this alert and increases leverage, the ones who suffer more when the price reverses might be the latecomers.
Of course, he might be right; my caution doesn't mean this trade is necessarily wrong. If the price rises later and I observe him reducing leverage and shrinking risk, I will raise my evaluation of this trade; these are my observation conditions, not facts that have already happened. I will next watch if the risk converges, and won't use others' opening positions to boost my own confidence. Recently, $SNDK, $MU, and $SKHY have collectively declined again.
I believe this drop is not an issue with any single company, but rather a cooling of sentiment across the entire storage sector.
There are several main reasons: first, the previous gains were too large, and investors started to take profits; second, Kioxia gave a relatively cautious forecast for future NAND price growth, causing the market to worry about a potential slowdown in storage price increases; third, the U.S. election results, AI data center construction expectations, and Qualcomm's weak smartphone business performance have all raised some concerns about future demand.
However, I do not think this means the long-term logic of the storage industry has ended.
AI development relies on high-bandwidth memory and large-capacity storage, and data centers still have strong demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND. In the short term, stock prices may continue to fluctuate and even pull back further, but from a longer-term perspective, I remain optimistic about this industry.
For me, it is now more important to observe supply and demand relationships and company orders, rather than letting a few days of decline change my long-term judgment.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK has been falling continuously? Why isn't it going up?
Don't simply attribute it to earnings missing expectations; the real pain point is that the market is no longer willing to assign high valuations at the peak of the cycle.
Even if the current data looks good, what capital fears most is that the high profits earned now are very likely the ceiling of this storage cycle. Once the price increase benefits fade later, the gross margin will directly decline, and the stock price is already pricing in this in advance.
Adding another layer, people are starting to doubt whether AI capital expenditures can continue to explode. If big companies reduce storage purchases, the previously hyped demand story will be discounted, and the entire sector's valuation will be forced to contract.
Another crucial point is that on-chain synthetic tokens themselves amplify volatility. During U.S. stock market closures, without real market makers to support, even a relatively small sell order can cause a deep spike down, with price fluctuations far greater than the original underlying stock.
It's not that the company's fundamentals have collapsed, but that capital is unwilling to continue betting on the cycle's continuation, combined with token liquidity flaws, making the drop especially painful.
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
For those who bought these $SNDK spot shares, the loss is already over 50 USD, bought around the high of 1600 to 1700. With the price falling to this dog-like state, it's better to just leave it be. # Latest Updates
- The Republican Party suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm elections, with the Democratic Party regaining control of both the House and Senate. Brent crude oil plunged 8.67% below $95 to $94.62, and U.S. Treasury yields declined. Vance publicly cut ties with Trump.
- October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, slightly below expectations, while ADP employment was 86,000, exceeding expectations. Service sector expansion slowed slightly but continued, with no change in the December rate hike expectations.
- Oracle canceled a roughly $7 billion AI chip leasing agreement with Tencent. The U.S. tightened restrictions on Chinese companies' overseas cloud access to advanced computing power, narrowing overseas GPU channels.
- BTC rose to $80,000, ETH at $2,439, CME Bitcoin futures premium at 0.28%. However, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $116 million, ETH ETFs net outflows of $85 million, and USDC and USDT circulating supplies both declined month-over-month.
- Circle's Q3 revenue was $865 million, exceeding expectations, but performance was flat after excluding ARC token pre-sales, with USDC circulation remaining stable. CPN's annualized trading volume surpassed $58 billion, and the CFO will resign.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: Blue wave suppresses oil prices and tariffs, AI sector faces regulatory headwinds.
- Democrats swept Congress, the market prices in no U.S.-Iran war and tariff obstacles, Brent crude fell below $95, yields declined, consumer sector led gains. However, fiscal discipline concerns remain—restoring healthcare tax credits increases spending, the funding bill expires on December 11, raising the risk of a government shutdown by year-end. The way Bitcoin mining companies operate is changing!⛏️
American Bitcoin, endorsed by Eric Trump, announced its Q3 results. The most noteworthy aspect is not the revenue, but the BTC reserves.
📊 Q3 data:
* BTC reserves: 8,427 coins
* Mining this quarter: 891 coins
* Revenue: $63.4 million
In the past, mining companies usually sold mined coins to cover electricity and equipment costs. Now, some miners are changing their strategy, holding $BTC as a long-term asset.
This means miners may gradually shift from being continuous sellers to long-term holders.
If more mining companies choose to hoard coins, the new selling pressure in the market may decrease accordingly.
But one point to watch: 891 coins were mined this quarter, yet reserves only grew by about 5%. How many truly remain on the books?
When looking at mining companies, it’s not just about how much they mined, but how much they kept!
#Bitcoin #BTC #OKXOrbit #CryptoGlanced at the market at lunch, the three coins are still rising, but the direction of losses is different: BTC and SOL are still suffering losses on short positions, while ETH longs are also taking hits, breaking the one million mark.
$BTC: Up nearly 5%, shorts are still taking the brunt
Current price $80,453.4, 24h up 4.91%. Long-short ratio 1.51, 4 hours ago 1.54↓. Open interest about 2.686 billion U. In the last 207 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 88,000 U, shorts 704,000 U.
$ETH: Biggest gain, longs also taking the biggest hits
Current price $2,420.68, 24h up 7.31%, high 2,450.79. Long-short ratio 1.38, 4 hours ago 1.35↑. Open interest about 1.531 billion U. In the last 166 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 1.113 million U, shorts 230,000 U.
$SOL: Up nearly 5%, shorts still taking hits
Current price $96.01, 24h up 4.94%. Long-short ratio 3.19, 4 hours ago 3.27↓, still the most crowded. Open interest about 332 million U. In the last 541 minutes, 100 liquidations: longs 148,000 U, shorts 672,000 U.
Commentary: ETH has risen the most, but the cost of chasing longs is also the highest, with 1.113 million U longs liquidated—the largest loss among the three coins.
Summary: All three coins rising does not mean all are easy to trade. ETH longs breaking one million—do you think there are too many chasing the highs, or is the selling pressure at 2,450 too heavy?
#Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高 #Nonfarm is imminent, can employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? $BTC $ETH Nonfarm is imminent, can employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October nonfarm payroll report at 21:30 Beijing time on November 6, which is the most critical employment gauge before the December FOMC. Several key market numbers to watch: 1) Consensus expectations: about 65,000 new nonfarm jobs (only 29,000 in September), unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, average hourly earnings month-over-month about +0.3%, year-over-year about 2.9%; 2) Interest rate pricing: CME FedWatch shows the market's implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is around 80%, much higher than the "rate cut" narrative; 3) If stronger: employment significantly exceeds expectations, unemployment rate declines, it will raise the probability of a December rate hike and may even cause the market to reprice the number of hikes in 2027; if significantly weaker, with a jump in unemployment, it may weaken the current rate hike pricing. The transmission to the crypto market is very direct: the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are the pricing anchors for risk assets. Hotter employment → rising rate hike expectations → tightening liquidity expectations, BTC/ETH are more likely to come under pressure; cooler employment is the opposite. In the past 24 hours, BTC has rebounded from about 76,500 to around 80,500 USD (up about 5.4%), ETH about 2,420 USD (up about 7.9%), largely a volatility correction after the midterm elections, and has not yet fully digested the "Friday nonfarm" bomb. My view: it now feels more like "pricing is already hawkish, data will decide whether to add more" SanDisk (SNDK): A New Opportunity in AI Storage or a Cycle Top?
SanDisk has recently become a noteworthy target in the AI industry chain. My judgment is: optimistic in the long term, but do not chase the highs in the short term; wait for a pullback opportunity.
1. Why am I optimistic?
1. AI data centers continue to expand, driving growth in enterprise SSD demand.
2. NAND Flash supply and demand are improving, and rising storage prices bring profit elasticity.
3. Expansion of enterprise storage business is expected to enhance long-term profitability.
2. Where are the risks?
SanDisk's biggest risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but a reversal in the storage industry cycle. Once NAND prices peak and industry capacity expansion increases, gross margins may decline, and stock prices could adjust in advance.
3. My entry strategy
Price observation range before the stock split:
* $950–1,000: small position testing
* $850–900: key focus
* $750–800: evaluate opportunities after a deep pullback
(SanDisk is doing an 8-for-1 split; actual operations require converting prices post-split.)
4. Final judgment
I am optimistic about the long-term development of AI storage but will not blindly chase highs just because of strong performance.
Key indicators to watch are NAND prices, enterprise SSD growth, gross margin, and stock price stabilization signals.
A good company does not mean any price is worth buying. Waiting for a margin of safety is more important than guessing the bottom.
This article is for personal investment observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
$SNDK $QQQ Calculating, $3,429,500 accounts for approximately 0.45% of the $757 million total net asset value. This net inflow is a positive signal, but I would not directly interpret it as a large-scale capital entry. According to SoSoValue data, on November 4th Eastern US time, the US ZEC spot ETF recorded a single-day total net inflow of $3,429,500, with only the Zcash ETF (ZCSH) showing net inflow that day.
① The entire $3,429,500 net inflow that day came from ZCSH. My understanding is that there is a buying focus, but it is not multiple products attracting funds simultaneously, so the performance of a single product cannot be taken as a broad market warming.
② The historical cumulative net inflow is $218 million, and the daily increment is about 1.57% of that. This indicates that the day did add to the cumulative funds, but the single-day data is not enough to prove that inflows are accelerating.
③ The total net asset value is $757 million, and the disclosed ZEC net asset ratio is 3.44%. I separate the existing scale from new funds; net asset value is not net inflow and cannot be directly treated as new buying.
My judgment is mildly positive, supporting capital sentiment but not enough to prove a trend. As someone who likes to calculate, I prefer to draw conclusions slowly and will focus more on whether net inflows can continue and whether their sources can expand going forward. Regarding CORE's banking business layout, it currently resembles multiple financial infrastructure lines progressing in parallel, and it cannot yet be stated that there are direct contracts signed with traditional large commercial banks. Related viewpoints mention that the SatPay new banking solution and institutional custody matrix might be more worth observing than mere conceptual promotion. SatPay is jointly developed by CORE and the new banking infrastructure service provider Mobilum, positioned as an online Bitcoin banking product relying on CORE. The envisioned services include deposits and withdrawals, asset custody, and on-chain yields, with business income planned to be used for CORE buybacks, thereby creating token demand. However, this plan is still in the implementation stage and has not been fully launched to the public. Whether buybacks can truly generate sustained demand depends on when the product goes live, user scale, and actual revenue. On the institutional side, materials mention that custodians such as BitGo, Fireblocks, Hex Trust, Cobo, Kiln, and Valour have completed integration. The logic is that institutions can participate in BTC dual staking within compliant custody accounts without transferring assets out of their original custody systems, which is expected to lower operational barriers for banks and asset management institutions. This is closer to a pre-channel for funds entering on-chain business and cannot be directly equated with large-scale bank fund entry. 💡 My view. CORE's current highlight is not only in technical narrative but in whether it can link SatPay, custody, and yield products into a sustainable commercial closed loop. BTC