Orbit Post Sitemap

Bitcoin's state these past two days is just like you in the ambiguous phase waiting for the other person to reply. On October 12, intraday it once touched 84,000, then turned around and went back near 83,500. Wanting to push forward but not daring to. Picking up the phone and then putting it down again. What is it waiting for? Waiting for this week's US CPI. Truflation's forecast is that September CPI might rise to 3.6%. This ex called inflation hasn't left cleanly. The Federal Reserve wants to be gentle with the market but fears it might come back. So the current market is easy to understand: data is moderate, the market breathes a sigh of relief, trying to test the 86,000 to 87,000 range. If data is on the hot side, the 80,000 area might be tested again. Both paths are written on the face, just not revealed yet. Interestingly, on the other side, last week ETF funds were flowing out, but companies were buying. Metaplanet held 44,000 BTC at the end of Q3. Strive bought another 2,000, about $169 million. Retail investors are asking whether to break up, while companies are quietly adding positions. It's the same in relationships: during fights, it's easiest to see who is serious. My observation is: macro data determines the mood these days; capital structure determines the tone for the coming months. In the short term, watch CPI's mood; in the long term, watch who keeps accumulating. At such a juncture, the worst is to get emotional; going all in is like putting the whole relationship on a "I'll think about it". Leave some room in your position, let the data speak for you. The above prices are public data from October 12 to 13 and do not constitute investment advice. Everyone should watch the market rationally. #BTC #Bitcoin #CPI #Macro #⚠️DOGE spikes then falls back! After the hype story ends, no incremental funds appear, 0.085 becomes the lifeline $DOGE 4H DOGE current price 0.0869, after losing the 0.09 level, it has entered a pullback phase. The ETF listing narrative that the market hyped last week ultimately did not bring in substantial incremental funds. Meanwhile, the daily output pressure of 13.5 million tokens continues to exist, consistently suppressing price gains. Key price levels summary ✅ Lifeline support: 0.085, once effectively broken, the next target is 0.08 ✅ Strong resistance wall: 0.09‑0.092 Intraday range 0.085‑0.090, stop-loss at 0.0845. DOGE is a typical pure beta asset with no independent trend. It will fall harder when the overall market weakens. Current operation advice is mainly to wait and see. Latest news, several updates together show the market sentiment is clearly tight. In terms of market fluctuations, the South Korean stock market led the decline today. The South Korean KOSPI index opened down 3.27%, with intraday losses expanding to 5%, prompting the exchange to directly activate the KOSPI index's sidecar mechanism. SK Hynix fell 7% intraday, Samsung Electronics dropped 5.89%. Commentary: This wave of selling pressure comes from market concerns about Chinese competitors and the overheated rise of AI stocks, with funds retreating from high-level tech stocks. On the same day, cryptocurrencies fell even harder. After $BTC dropped below $82,000, altcoins retreated across the board: $BOME down 30.04% in 24 hours, $BLUR down 29.48%, $STRK down 28.35%, $ENA and $NEAR both down over 13%. Commentary: When BTC pulls back, high Beta altcoins amplify the decline; at such times, diversified investment is more important than betting on a single asset. The data on leveraged liquidations is also striking. The entire network saw $672 million liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $586 million, shorts at $85.92 million, and 144,000 people liquidated. The largest single liquidation was on Binance BTCUSDT pair, valued at $9.65 million. Commentary: Long positions account for the vast majority of liquidations, indicating that previously chased positions are being rapidly cleaned out. Looking at on-chain risk, after ETH fell below $2,500, "Big Brother" $ETH long position dropped to $8.5 million, with an opening price of $2,545.84 and liquidation price of $2,392.90, only about $36 away from forced liquidation, account net worthThe main pricing theme over the past 24 hours has been "inflation and further interest rate tightening" overshadowing risk appetite: oil prices settled higher, a Federal Reserve voter publicly advocated shifting to restrictive policies, the memory chip sector was hit again by news about Changxin Memory Technology, and A-shares along with global growth stocks faced simultaneous pressure, with defensive sectors like banks outperforming. The next two days will have intensive verification points: tonight before the US market opens, major banks' earnings reports will kick off the earnings season, and on October 14, the US September CPI and China's September data will be released.今天的行情真的不行，现在看$ETH $ZEC 明显比$BTC 更弱了，说明市场承接力度在变小，昨天我还说大饼都到82800了，以太还守住2500真厉害，结果今天直接砸到2400了，原来昨天是回光返照🥲🥲🥲 先看$BTC，80000—81000美元是接下来的支撑区域了，现在就看这里能不能稳住，稳住才有机会走修复，但是如果80000守不住就得小心去79000美元了，对多头的打击是很严重的。 $ETH目前相对$BTC是弱势的，2400美元是它的短线观察点，守住才能有后续行情，如果跌破继续找底2350美元附近，上方压力位2480美元左右，这次的跌幅属实让人猝不及防 $ZEC这次更狠，说明波动高的资产在市场情绪转弱的时候会被人无情抛弃，1100美元现在就是ZEC的关键支撑，反弹看1200，这个币大家还是少玩，虽然看见涨跌幅很大，可是开错一单就要套很久。 我的观点是短线防守，看这几个币的支撑能不能撑得住，支撑有效，再看反弹力度和量能，别急着抄底，因为可能抄在半山腰，等市场出现明确止跌迹象再动手。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ 🚨HYPE四小时深度复盘：从高点回撤11%！机构接盘+真金白银回购暗藏信号 $HYPE 4小时 HYPE现价86.7，从历史高点98回撤幅度达到11%，已经在84‑88区间震荡磨盘接近一周。 这里有两个非常关键的盘面信息，很多人容易忽略： 第一，10月6日解锁的375万枚代币全部通过OTC卖给单一机构，并且链上已经有125万枚完成重新质押。机构是以长期持有为目的，大额解锁抛压并没有直接冲击二级市场盘面。 第二，协议USDC储备收益大约90%划入回购基金，10月3日第一笔回购已经正式执行，回购托底并非口头叙事，是实打实落地的利好。 关键价位梳理 ✅生命线支撑：84，是当前多头防守核心 ✅阻力关口：90‑92，有效站稳之后，上方空间才会彻底打开 日内运行区间84‑89，防守损点83。 另外要重视风险：当前OI持仓17.4亿美元，资金费率APR高达+11%，多头仓位已经十分拥挤，坚决不要盲目追高。Three coins, three different behaviors. The easiest mistake is never about direction, but about the volatility phase. Do you think sideways movement is safe and a drop is an opportunity? Reviewing my position records these past two days, I found a painful truth: the trades where I lost the most were not because I misread the direction, but because I misjudged the switch in volatility phases. SOL shows a 2.86% decline, yet the price still clings near the 24-hour high. This "down but not weak" state actually means buying is absorbing selling pressure, indicating strong consolidation, not weakness. HYPE is stuck oscillating between 82.906 and 88.073, which looks boring, but the clearer the range, the more it shows bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger point. Chasing orders at this time is most likely to get hit from both sides. WLD dropped 8.01% in 24 hours, showing the clearest pressure. A sharp drop doesn’t mean it’s time to bottom-fish immediately; it’s more like an emotional venting phase. Until the rhythm completes, rebounds could be traps. My current approach is to first assess the volatility phase, then the coin itself. For SOL, which sticks near highs, the bullish logic is that a breakout tends to attract momentum funds. The risk is that if it’s a false breakout, the pullback will be quick, so positions should be light and stop-losses tight. HYPE’s range trading logic is clear: don’t chase if the upper bound isn’t broken, don’t panic if the lower bound holds. But the real risk is when the range breaks; the direction often moves more fiercely than expected. WLD’s weakness hides opportunity, but it requires seeing volume contraction and a halt in decline first, not just rushing in based on the drop percentage. The market is actually trading not which of these three coins is stronger, but the risk appetite has观察清单： - 英国高院 10 月 12 日裁定钱志敏案逾 6.1 万枚 BTC 追索适用中国法：财新称约 1.6 万名参与英国追索程序的中国受害者可能只能追回本金及利息，无法分享 BTC 增值（A 级，法院判决＋多家媒体印证）。 - 以太坊基金会关联钱包 10 月 12 日向 Kraken 转入 4,393 枚 ETH、约 1,113 万美元（A 级，EmberCN 与 Lookonchain 双源监测一致）；转入交易所不等于已卖出，基金会未置评。[PANews] - Ledger 事件进展/更新：Tether 已冻结涉案 1,000 万美元 USDT，第三方对总损失的估算上调至约 9,300 万–9,450 万美元（A 级，CoinDesk 报道，Ledger 官方仍未确认金额）；另有用户在 X 披露欧洲零售渠道亦现疑似植入设备（B 级，未经证实，仅作情绪参考），Ledger 官方 10 月 12 日更新称已确认案例均涉经销商 CryptoBilis、已停止与其合作。Crude oil prices surged to 107, and the entire crypto market shifted from a structural rally to indiscriminate decline 😂, so let's defend first. 1. The three major macro obstacles are now hard to resolve: the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.70%, a new high since 2002; oil prices are nearly approaching $110; $BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $400 million in October. I originally thought BTC would fluctuate between 82,000 and 81,000 yesterday, but with a risk-free yield at 5.7%, it directly broke below 82,000. 2. Even the speculative coins that occasionally rose last week have mostly undergone significant pullbacks. For example, the three speculative coins from last week $STRK /MAGIC/$NEAR are all being heavily sold today. Moreover, these speculative coins are dropping much harder than mainstream coins, which is normal. I just said yesterday that they were being heavily speculated on, and the cooling off starts from the most crowded places. However, I’m quite surprised they’re falling today; I thought the hype would last a few more days since I expected the market to trend upward with fluctuations this week. CPI data is about to be released, so I’ll wait for the data before deciding. If it falls below 80,000 now, I’ll buy some more at the bottom.📉 ETH Is Back on Its Crash Low. Test or Trapdoor? $2,578 yesterday, $2,417 now. ETH is back at last week's $2,405 selling climax low, the classic Wyckoff secondary test. Good sign: selling is a fraction of the crash volume. Bad sign: $2,405 is flagged as a weak low, with stops stacked below. Hold $2,405 and $2,473 is the first bounce target. Lose it and $2,350 to $2,365 is the last line. Bitcoin is testing its own floor too. Healthy test, or trapdoor? Not financial advice. $ETH $BTC $SOL $STRK 这单50倍空，从0.10341拿到现在0.0847，一觉醒来浮盈直接干到900%+。说实话，看着数字从昨天的578%又跳了这么多，手已经开始痒了——不是想加仓，是想按止盈键。 盘面很直白：0.1268高点后连续破位，今天又跌6.55%，4小时大阴线砸穿所有均线（MA5/10/20在0.092/0.103/0.097全成压力），价格贴着下沿磨。消息面“L1转变叙事弱点”叠加前期30天197%涨幅的获利盘，抛压根本停不住。量能下跌放量反弹缩量，空头完全控盘。 但50倍900%浮盈，我真心不敢多拿一秒。昨天0.0914就说了不贪，现在跌破0.09，下方看0.08-0.082，但越到低位越容易针。反弹站回0.09就会震荡，0.097（MA20）上方才是多头喘息位。OKB 4-Hour Market Review: Pullback After Rally, Positive Narratives Already Priced In $OKB 4-Hour OKB current price is 126.5, having started a one-week correction from the October 6 high of 136; the 30-day period still records +11.3%, making it one of the stronger alpha assets among cryptocurrencies. OKX's $25 billion valuation financing and stablecoin yield farming at 10% APY have already been fully priced in by the market. On-chain deposits on the X-Layer have dropped close to 10%, reflecting a short-term lack of new positive catalysts. Key Price Levels ✅ Support range: 122-124, converted from previous resistance to support on pullback ✅ Resistance zone: 131-133, must reclaim this range to resume upward momentum Intraday trading range is 123-129, with a stop-loss at 121.5. In terms of strategy, focus on pullbacks to the 123-124 range; if price breaks below this effectively, it is not recommended to continue participating. Good morning, the crypto space today is not a “sideways market diary,” but more like a macro sneeze, on-chain horse race, with regulators taking notes on the side. 1. BTC / ETH: BTC steady, ETH waiting for catalysts - BTC hovers around 84,000; after last week's net outflow from ETFs, institutions haven't chased buys but also haven't dumped, the market is waiting for the US inflation data on 10/14. - ETH follows macro trends when it has no own story; staking yields, Layer 2 fees, and treasury tokenization are its long-term narrative, short-term it acts more like a “market follower.” - Key level: If BTC doesn't break 82,000, sentiment remains intact; if it breaks, leveraged traders will pay the tuition again. 2. Regulation: Foreign countries write rules, domestic warns “don’t mess around” - US: The "CLARITY Act" is still being refined in the Senate; stablecoins, retail leverage, and CFTC/SEC jurisdiction division are the main themes—not “banning coins,” but “bringing them under control.” - China: The National Security Department just made it clear—virtual currency is not an asset but a risk; anonymity is a mask, not an invisibility cloak; once exchanged for RMB or traded on a real-name exchange, it’s nailed down off-chain. - Hong Kong/Singapore/Middle East: Continue to serve as “licensed crypto” showrooms; institutional channels are worth more than retail hype. 3. Sector thermometer - DeFi: No longer telling the “total value locked” fairy tale; AAVE, UNI, GMX and similar projects with fees and dividends/buybacks are called “Real Yield honor students”; pure mining tokens continue to decline. - RWA: Dehydrating, treasury bonds, receivablesInstitutions haven't withdrawn, but retail investors panic first: Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal Bitcoin remains above $80,000, but more and more people feel the bull market has ended. The harsh reality is: having capital in the market doesn't mean your account is making money From October 5 to 9, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $680 million, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $540 million. Around October 9, the entire market's 24-hour liquidations once reached $1.19 billion. But on the same day, the BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $21.1 million. Capital hasn't completely exited but is choosing directions again What is truly worth being cautious about is not how much BTC has dropped, but that capital is starting to diverge. The past logic of "BTC rises, ETH follows, altcoins explode" is failing. Institutions value liquidity and risk control more; even if BTC stabilizes, funds may not flow to small-cap tokens The most common mistake retail investors make is judging today by past bull market experiences. Three things to watch out for next: BTC rebounds but volume and ETF funds don't show sustained improvement; ETH remains weaker than BTC, altcoins lack new capital; the market repeatedly rallies and falls, with high-leverage funds continuously liquidated What deserves the most attention now is not which coin can multiply tenfold, but whether the market has truly restored sustained buying pressure. A single ETF net inflow does not equal a trend reversal, and a single price rebound does not mean the bull market has started. The real danger is not missing the rise, but mistaking a rebound for a reversal before the trend is confirmed $BTC $ETH $ZEC The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 59 (near neutral) last week and has risen back to 64 this week. During the same period, BTC fell 2.53% to $82,715.4, and ETFs shifted from net inflows to net outflows of $214.7 million. Both price and capital are deteriorating, yet sentiment is improving — this combination deserves a separate discussion. First, let's look at three sets of numbers. First, sentiment is rising: the Fear and Greed Index increased from 59 to 64 (previously 59), still at the lower edge of the "Greed" zone; second, price is under pressure: BTC currently at $82,715.4 (24h -0.19%, past week -2.53%), with a 20-day range of $80,400 to $87,399; third, capital is reversing: US spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about $214.7 million over the last 5 trading days, with the latest single-day net outflow at $82.3 million, while the US Dollar Index rose to 102.23 and gold increased 1.52% to $4,195.6. Why is there a "price drop, sentiment rise"? Because this index includes components like market momentum, social buzz, and search trends, which are sensitive to short-term rebounds and discussion heat. When BTC quickly rebounds in the $80,000–$83,000 range, momentum and buzz improve before capital does, causing the index to rise. In other words, **the sentiment index reflects "attention and short-term momentum," not "whether capital has truly returned."** This misalignment has two practical implications: **First, do not mistake rising sentiment for a bottom signal.** 一睁眼看到$ETH 这单100倍空浮盈439%，标价2420，心里先松了半口气。昨晚2532开的空，吃到了2578高点后的这根大阴线 盘面没啥好纠结的：4小时连阴砸穿所有短期均线（MA5/10/20全在上方压制），今日跌4.46%，7日跌10.54%，“麻吉”多单浮亏那点事就是多头流动性被猎杀的缩影。量能下跌有量，反弹无量，退潮没结束。 但100倍真不敢恋战，439%浮盈看着香，回撤起来也就几根针的事。2407有短暂承接，下方看2380，反弹若站回2450-2480，多头反扑会很凶。所以醒来第一件事：先止盈大半，落袋为安。留点底仓看破位，不贪最后这块铜板。10.13 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Morning Outlook After bottoming at 4066 on the 4-hour chart, gold formed a reversal structure, completing a bullish BOS, with lows gradually rising, establishing a major bottom structure. Currently, the price has pulled back after a rally, with MA5 crossing below MA10 indicating short-term pressure, MA20 providing support near 4163, MACD red bars shrinking, showing a slowdown in short-term bullish momentum, and the market entering a high-level consolidation phase. From the 1-hour resonance perspective: the 4-hour major cycle is forming a bullish base, while the 1-hour chart shows a correction structure, indicating a divergence in rhythms between large and small cycles, with short-term movement mainly focused on oscillation and recovery. Recommendation: Short at the rebound zone of 4175-4195, targets at 4150, 4130, 4110; if price stabilizes on a pullback at 4140-4130, consider going long with targets at 4170, 4190. Risk Warning: The above is only a technical market view and does not constitute any investment advice. Trading carries inherent risks; please manage your positions carefully. $XAU #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH 🚨 【Market Alert】CPI/PPI nuclear bomb approaching, BTC breaks down and heads straight for the 80,400 defense line! Macro pressure: From October 14 to 15 at 20:30, the US will release core inflation data including September CPI and PPI. Due to rising energy prices and the Fed's expected rate hikes this year (currently about 18% priced in for October), the market is highly risk-averse before the data release, with clear capital outflows. Technical breakdown: BTC's current price has dropped to around 81,280, with a daily decline exceeding 3.1%; the daily MA5 (82,500), MA10 (83,542), and MA20 (83,888) form a steep bearish alignment pressing down, with bears fully dominating the market, pushing down to the previous low support at 80,400. Practical risk control: This is a typical pre-data "front-running short squeeze," strictly forbidding blind left-side catching of falling knives around the 81,000 mid-level. Short-term focus on the support strength at the previous low of 80,400; during the data release on the 14th-15th, "spike" washouts are very likely, so it is recommended to stay out or hold light positions and wait for the macro direction to become clear before taking right-side action! (Personal review opinion, not investment advice. Among all trading rules, preserving principal is the first!)CPI and PPI are about to be released, will the crypto market fall first out of respect? Last night, the crypto market almost entirely declined, BTC dropped to around $81,000, ETH fell more than 4%, and ZEC dropped over 10%, showing clear selling pressure in the market. At this time, the most important focus is the upcoming US CPI and PPI data. If inflation continues to exceed expectations, concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates may heat up again, and risk assets will face greater pressure. My view is, don’t rush to bottom fish in the short term. For BTC, pay close attention to the support around $81,000, and for ETH, watch whether the $2,400 level can hold. Control your positions before the data release and wait for the market to give direction; this is more important than blindly guessing price movements. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH 📊SOL 4-hour chart: Weekly sharply retraced, capital rotation occurred in the public chain sector $SOL 4-hour Current SOL price is 111.5, weekly close down 7.8%, significantly underperforming the broader market, continuing a steady decline since last week's 118. The 4-hour MACD runs below the zero line, overall in a weak consolidation pattern. The positive effect of the Alpenglow upgrade has been fully realized and absorbed, with on-site funds clearly shifting towards catch-up public chains like AVAX and ICP, lacking active buying on the chart. Key price levels: ✅ Resistance level: 115, only by holding above this level can a second rebound rally be expected ✅ Short-term support: 108 Intraday range 108-114, stop loss at 107. Currently in a weak state passively following the broader market, operation priority is to observe.Isn't today another day full of many people talking nonsense? The ones most let down by all this are family members. $BTC's drop last night was already a bad sign, and there's also CPI and PPI coming up. The most stable approach at times like this is to stay out of the market and wait quietly. Although opportunities are becoming fewer now, preserving your capital is the only way to have a chance to see the dawn of a new day! You can't sell at the highest point, nor buy at the lowest! Don't be too impatient; every time I miss the last chance, I just exit. I'll buy more $BTC once the market stabilizes. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test 📉 Bitcoin Slips Below $82K. Now the Spring Goes on Trial $84.4K yesterday, $81.2K now. The $82.3K floor broke, and price landed right in the $80.1K to $81.3K demand zone we flagged last night. The 4H chart now labels the range since late September as distribution and flags $80.3K as a weak low, a level markets love to sweep. Hold $80.3K and $82.3K to $82.5K comes back into view. Lose it and $75K to $78K is next. Spring confirmed, or the floor gives way? Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL ETH: "Silent turnover" in OKX data ETH is currently priced at $2,412 on OKX, with a funding rate of -0.0046%—shorts are paying longs, but the rate is very shallow, indicating no one is placing heavy bets. Look at two easily overlooked details. First, OKX's open interest is $1.601 billion, up 8.12% in 24 hours, but OKX's own open interest increased by 1.9% over 4 hours, showing accelerated short-term turnover. Second, the largest single liquidation occurred on OKX at $2,528.15, amounting to The creator incentive program platform prefers sharing in the following categories: In summary, I personally think the platform favors these aspects: 1. Non-farm payroll data 2. Detailed breakdown of individual cryptocurrencies 3. Specific breakdown of celebrity trader techniques 4. Personal trading achievements and genuine feelings about failures $ZEC $ETH A culprit: Iran's "not sufficient" four words pushed oil prices back above $100 First, let's look at the most direct catalyst. In the early morning of October 13, senior Iranian officials publicly criticized the U.S. peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as "not sufficient" and threatened to attack regional data centers. On the same day, Houthi forces attacked Riyadh airport, causing crude oil prices to rebound about 2.3%, reigniting inflation concerns. Do you understand this chain? Iran says "not sufficient" → oil price rises 2.3% → inflation expectations heat up → expectations for the Fed to pause rate hikes are hedged → risk assets come under pressure. And the more critical figure is another number: U.S. military casualty data was revised upward. Deaths rose from 18 to 21, and wounded increased by 98 to 865. The implication of this revision is clear: the market is pricing in a "prolonged conflict." Bitcoin was not dumped by the crypto community. It was indirectly pushed down by the gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran says "not sufficient," the "war premium" on oil prices is pushed higher again. And for every dollar oil prices rise, the Fed's pressure to raise rates increases by one more point. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? It's really painful, holding this $ETH long position has been so agonizing 🥺 Watching the price drop again and again, no rebound in sight, and things are getting more and more passive. It's not true to say I'm not anxious; I've also started reflecting on whether I was too optimistic and ignored the risks. Ethereum has fallen steadily from above 2700, with insufficient rebound strength, now almost down to around 2405. Bears still dominate; whether it can hold the previous low is key; even if it rebounds, it needs to firmly reclaim key resistance levels before we can talk about trend improvement. This time I really experienced that the most tormenting thing about high leverage isn't the loss itself, but knowing the risk is huge while still holding onto hope that the market will rebound. I hope this time it can be a lesson for myself. 🥲 ETH dropped 4.6%, but 75% of accounts are still net long. This is the signal I am more cautious about. Just checked Binance perpetual data: BTC around $81,418, down 2.96% in 24 hours; ETH around $2,427, down 4.59%. The most notable is ETH's position structure. The latest available long-short account ratio reached 3.03, about 75.2% of accounts net long, but the current funding rate shows -0.00206%. A majority of accounts being long does not mean the position amount or active buy orders dominate. Looking at open interest (OI), ETH fell from a recent hourly high of 2.3481 million contracts to 2.2826 million, a decline of about 2.79%; the latest available hourly active buy-sell ratio is only 0.793, with sell orders still dominant. This means that while the price is falling, some contract positions are exiting, and the market has not yet shown a clear enough absorption signal. Next, I will focus on whether ETH can effectively reclaim around $2,412 and whether the rebound can firmly hold above $2,500. My judgment is: many long accounts do not equal the bottom has appeared; at this stage, first watch if the selling pressure truly weakens.Just off the operating table, the monitor's $LDO triggered a hypotension alarm — a 24-hour drop of 1.92%. On the surface, it looks like only microcirculation disorder, but the lesion is far more complex than imagined. The short-term RSI has already reached 37.8, on the edge of borderline bradycardia, and could trigger compensatory tachycardia at any moment. The long-term RSI remains at 61.9, indicating overall perfusion pressure is still acceptable, meaning the organs haven't necrotized, only local ischemia. The short-term Bollinger Band lower bound has only 1.3% buffer space left, with the price clinging at 38%, resembling a fragile blood vessel wall about to rupture. The mid-term Bollinger Band is even more dangerous, with the price at 24%, only 2.8% safety margin from the lower bound; if it breaks, it means massive hemorrhage. The short-term RSI value of 37.8 clinically falls into a gray zone — neither clearly oversold nor safely overbought, like an ST segment depression on an ECG, indicating subendocardial ischemia but not yet transmural infarction. Reviewing the past weeks' trend is like reading a cardiac catheterization report — the tug-of-war between bulls and bears has left large fibrotic scars, and volume has shrunk like underperfused myocardium. The current price of $0.37 is in an extremely awkward anatomical position: pressured from above by moving averages, supported below by the mid-term Bollinger Band lower bound, like an abnormal vessel trapped between the aorta and pulmonary artery, ready to rupture from pressure imbalance. If the 2.8% safety margin at the mid-term Bollinger Band lower bound is breached, it equals complete coronary artery occlusion, and the myocardium will irreversibly necrose within minutes. At that point, any rebound is just a last flicker, not recovery. As cardiothoracic surgeons, we most fear forcibly opening the chest when vital signs are unstable. Currently, $LDO's blood pressure is declining but not yet at the point requiring defibrillation. My surgical entry point is chosen at $0.36, 2.9% below the current price, waiting for blood pressure to drop further to find a clear inferior vena cava rupture before cutting, rather than blindly opening the chest amid uncontrolled bleeding. Rushing in now would be like cutting the aorta without blood preparation — pure suicide. This cut must wait until the moment the vascular clamp clamps the rupture, which is the true intervention timing. First hemostasis point: $0.39, corresponding to a 3.8% rise, just a simple suture to stabilize vital signs. Second hemostasis point: $0.40, corresponding to an 8.9% rise, completing coronary artery bypass to restore blood supply. Stop-loss is set at $0.32; if the price breaks this line, it means a 12.9% blood loss, equivalent to an aortic dissection rupture, requiring immediate termination of surgery and declaring rescue futile — no CPR on the corpse. This is not cold-bloodedness but the most basic sterile principle in the operating room — infected tissue must be removed, and nonviable limbs must be abandoned. 📈 Long: Entry: $0.36 (current price -2.9%) Take Profit 1: $0.39 (+3.8%) Take Profit 2: $0.40 (+8.9%) Stop Loss: $0.32 (-12.9%) The myocardium has already shown ischemic preconditioning, but the conduction system is still erratic. The prognosis of this body depends on whether that 12.9% blood loss baseline will be triggered. #strategyplaybookOn October 12, a major strategic event was just officially announced: the Sui Foundation made a $30 million strategic investment in the AI training data protocol DATA Network (formerly Story), officially becoming its largest institutional holder, while also driving the entire protocol's native migration to the Sui ecosystem. This is a key move for Sui's bet on the AI Agent economy. After the investment, the Sui Foundation's shareholding exceeded that of DATA Network's initial developer PIP Labs and DATA Foundation itself, becoming the largest institutional shareholder of the network. PIP Labs Chairman and CEO SY Lee will join the Sui Foundation as a strategic advisor, with both parties deeply collaborating to advance the ecological implementation of the AI data protocol. The original independent public chain of DATA Network will be officially retired, and the protocol will be fully upgraded to a native protocol on the Sui chain. Existing DATA tokens will be migrated to the Sui network at a 1:1 ratio, with the original network continuing normal operation during the migration transition period. The core traceability registration system Trace under DATA Network will be deeply integrated with Walrus, the decentralized storage platform of the Sui ecosystem. Walrus will become the default storage layer for all applications under DATA Foundation. After the upgrade, Trace will not only record the registration time of files but also store encrypted, tamper-proof original file copies in Walrus. All subsequent data processing$BTC Empty empty empty holding the palace. Yesterday's analysis was spot on; this big coin has risen to 8.4 but can't go higher. The bulls' strength is weak. Around 8.5 is all the main force. In the short term, shorting is a good choice. Currently, the big coin is at $81,383, having fallen below the options market's GEX zero flip point at $81,750. After crossing this line, every subsequent candlestick in the market will be fiercer, faster, and more deceptive. The upper $85,000 is hard to break through in the short term; If it can't hold $81,000 below, $79,500 is the next dense support area. $ETH dropped nearly 5%. Retail bulls account for as much as 75%, meaning three-quarters of retail traders are betting long. What will the main force choose next? The answer is obvious: first sweep down to clear out these long positions' stop losses, then decide whether to pull up. It's too risky to go long at this position now. Wait for ETH to clear the long stop losses below $2,400, see volume-price divergence + funding rate turning negative below -0.02%, then that is the real bullish ambush window. Brothers, what do you think of this analysis? 😁24-hour liquidation heatmap, all green: BTC 149 million U, ETH 158 million U, with long positions accounting for over 85%. ZEC liquidated 27.6 million U, breaking into the top five — just as the shorts were being squeezed, the longs started killing each other, crashing from 1348 directly down to 1149. The most unanimous sentiment direction is often the direction of the harvest. After a liquidation wave, there is usually a second bottom test, so don't rush to catch the rebound. Those who survive longest are never the ones who see the clearest, but those with the lightest positions and the strictest stop losses. $ZEC ETH Daily Review: Rebound Faces Heavy Resistance, Waiting for BTC to Guide Direction $ETH Daily Current price of ETH is 2555, the trend aligns with previous analysis, rebounding from the 2400 bottom, but the 2550-2580 resistance zone has been tested three times without a successful breakthrough. ETF funds show divergence, overall not bearish for ETH; on-chain staking ratio surpasses 35%, exchange balances are at multi-year lows, forming a mid-term base support logic. MACD is flat and converging above the zero line, lacking independent momentum, the market needs BTC to provide direction. Key Levels Summary ✅ Short-term resistance: 2630-2650 ✅ Lifeline support: 2480, risk of significant downside if broken Intraday range: 2500-2600, stop loss at 2470. The trend follows BTC correlation; before CPI data release, blind chasing of highs is not recommended. Morning Analysis｜Both BTC and ETH have broken key support levels, survive before the CPI release! First, a disclosure: total account assets 66.19U, today's loss -32.68U (-33.05%), the downtrend from yesterday continues. At this stage, no bravado, risk comes first. 📊 BTC ｜Current price 81,389 The 82,000 level mentioned yesterday has been lost, daily candles keep closing lower, MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA30 are all overhead resistance. KDJ J value is only 14, RSI6 around 33, short-term slightly oversold with rebound demand, but the trend remains weak. - Resistance above: 82,500-82,800 (MA5, MA30), then 83,500-83,900 - Support below: 80,000 round number, then MA60 near 79,400 - If rebound fails to hold above 82,800, bears continue; if truly breaks below 80,000, look down to previous low at 75,000 📊 ETH ｜Current price 2,426 ETH's 2,480-2,500 support (MA60) was broken yesterday, now turned into resistance. K value 18.8, J value 4, RSI6 only 23, clearly oversold zone, short-term technical rebound possible anytime. - Resistance above: 2,480-2,500, then 2,557 - Support below: 2,400 round number, then previous low at 2,355 $SOL: Short on the rebound! Strategy: · Wait for the price to rebound to the 105.00-106.00 range (EMA5/EMA10 resistance zone) and then enter short. · The initial target is 103.00 (24-hour low); if broken decisively, look for the 100.00 whole number support. Set stop loss at 108.50 (above EMA20). Core basis: 1. Perfect bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour chart, EMA5 (105.78), EMA10 (106.99), and EMA20 (108.36) are diverging downward, with price trading below all moving averages. Since the high of 121.95, highs have been continuously lower, clearly indicating a weak trend. 2. Severe long liquidation cascade: Figure 1 shows 24-hour long liquidations reaching 43.7 million U, far exceeding shorts. Longs are bleeding heavily, panic is spreading, and without clear bottoming signals, further long liquidations are likely. 3. Pattern breakdown and volume-price confirmation: Price broke below previous lows with volume, forming a typical one-way downtrend channel. Current low-level rebound volume is shrinking, indicating weak long support and heavy overhead resistance. Following the trend to short offers a better risk-reward. $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations 棋盘上最危险的时刻，不是王被将军，而是对手送你一个看似白吃的兵。$KSM 现在就在演这出戏——24小时涨了3.02%，价格推到3.14，所有人都在谈突破，而我的手指已经按在弃子的那一格上。 先看阵型。短期RSI已经站上65.7，而我们的信号阈值是64，这是典型的"多兵升变前的空档"。更致命的是布林带：短周期价格贴在92%的位置，距离上轨只剩0.1%，距离下轨却有1.5%——这不是强势，这是被挤到棋盘边缘的车，退路比前路长十五倍。中周期78%，距上轨1.0%、距下轨3.6%，同样头重脚轻。 记住一句话：当价格离天花板只有0.1%，而离地板有1.5%，赔率本身就已经向空方倾斜。这不是预测，这是几何。 我的中局计算是这样的：3.25这个位置，比现价高3.8%，正是对手最容易补一手"看似合理"的进兵点。而真正的弱点是下面。第一目标2.98，从现价往下5.0%；第二目标3.03，往下3.4%。两道防线之间夹着一段毫无支撑的开阔地——典型的残局结构，兵链断裂，王翼空虚。 至于止损，3.57，比我入场高出13.9%。有人会问：为什么止损给这么宽？因为特级大师从不因为一个兵的得失放弃整盘评估。宽止损不是懦弱，是给计算留出错棋的容错空间。真正致命的是仓位，不是点数。 这盘棋我不争一兵一卒，我争的是对手犯错的那一刻。 📉 空： 入场：3.25（当前价+3.8%） 止盈1：2.98（-5.0%） 止盈2：3.03（-3.4%） 止损：3.57（+13.9%） 长周期RSI只有44.5，中性偏弱，说明大棋盘上黑方并未取得绝对主动，所以这是一盘"精确打击后的快速兑子"，不是碾压式残局。到了目标区间，我不会恋战，直接交换，落袋为安。 弃子不是损失，是买时间。而时间，永远站在算得更深的那一边。"Is ETH really holding steady at 2500? My short position is getting a bit nervous." ETH is really strong. It keeps getting hammered at 2500 but can’t break down, and it’s slowly pushing up to 2520, showing no signs of dropping. My short position at this level is looking more and more risky. I originally wanted to profit from a pullback, but it just keeps moving sideways and then creeps upward. Holding this short position makes me uneasy, afraid that a single piece of news from the bulls could send it flying up. Tomorrow is Monday, so if there’s any news tonight, a rally would be inevitable. I set my stop at 2480; if it drops there, I’ll exit. No greed—I was too eager chasing shorts this time, I admit it. $BTC is the same. 83000 was last week’s low, and many people bought the dip. If it holds here, it means there’s no trapped selling above, so a volume surge could push it up. If that happens, shorts will be even more uncomfortable. Right now, I’m not chasing longs or adding shorts. Waiting for direction and confirmation. Watching the news closely tonight—don’t want a single trade to wreck my mindset. $ETH $BTC For personal record only, not investment advice.BTC Daily Review: Touching Key Resistance, Waiting for CPI to Break the Range $BTC Daily The resistance level of 84200 given yesterday was directly reached this morning. The current market is stuck around 84200, with an intraday range of 83462‑84290. The 20-day moving average at 83386 is just below the current price, serving as important technical support. The market scenario remains unchanged: last week BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $681 million, marking the largest weekly outflow since the end of June. Institutional funds continue to withdraw, which is the biggest weakness of this rebound. Combined with hawkish statements from officials, the market is repricing the possibility of another rate hike by year-end. The 10-year US Treasury yield holds steady at 5.24%, continuously suppressing risk assets. Key Price Levels Summary ✅ First resistance above at 85000; further strong resistance zone at 86500‑87400 ✅ Support lifeline at 83400 (20-day moving average). If this breaks effectively, the next target is 82000 The market will most likely wait for tomorrow night’s CPI data to choose a direction. Before the data release, the overall range remains 83400‑85000. Intraday operation range reference: 83400‑84800, with stop loss defense at 82900. Briefly outlining two scenarios: • CPI meets or is below expectations, with a chance to push up to the 85000 level • CPI exceeds expectations and rises, with the market likely to directly retest support at 82000$W For this wave of rise, don't just look at the gains; the speculative logic behind it is the key! Technical upgrades combined with expectations of the next round of token unlocks have quickly ignited short-term enthusiasm. On one hand, clearing out bottom short positions; on the other, attracting off-exchange funds to chase longs, so the market naturally still has the potential to push higher. But Sister Ting believes that short-term bullishness does not mean long-term optimism. The selling Bitcoin and Ethereum crashed hard today. Bitcoin directly fell below 81,000, and Ethereum was even worse, breaking through 2,450, dropping nearly 4%. The whole market looks like a waterfall, with bulls being completely crushed. Ethereum's funding rate plunged to negative 39%, wiping out all leveraged longs. The slow decline over the past couple of days combined with today's sharp drop has completely crushed market sentiment. The reason boils down to one thing: Trump's tariff threats combined with the uncertainty of the midterm elections directly dragged down the entire market. Don't underestimate this negative factor; funds are now all seeking safety, and no one dares to catch the falling knife. Right now, don't rush to bottom-fish Bitcoin and Ethereum; wait until they stabilize a bit before considering it. The Reserve Bank of Australia clearly indicated in its latest monetary policy meeting minutes that all committee members unanimously agreed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. At the same time, the official emphasized that to ensure inflation steadily returns to the target range, domestic consumer demand needs to remain moderately constrained for a period. Concurrently, Australia's September NAB business conditions index remained flat at -1, while the business confidence index further declined from -8 to -13. From a macro fundamental perspective, the unanimous rate hike decision confirms the RBA's firm stance on combating inflation. Although business confidence data weakened, this is a typical technical feature of a tightening cycle aimed at curbing overheated demand, broadly aligning with the transmission path of policies implemented by major central banks globally. The forex and fixed income markets quickly digested this hawkish signal; the Australian dollar showed phased technical support, while the sovereign bond yield curve maintained relatively strong fluctuations at the short end. The contraction in business expectations further reduces the possibility of a future inflation rebound, and the market is gradually pricing in the potential tail end of this tightening cycle. For risk markets such as crypto assets, the central bank's swift resolution of policy uncertainty through a unanimous decision is actually a positive signal. Technically, the deleveraging phase nearing its end often indicates that the liquidity bottom is gradually forming, laying a macro foundation for mainstream assets like $BTC to stabilize and rebound at key support levels. $BTC $ETH #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, and rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to position, so why does BTC remain under pressure? The facade of this building is still shining, but the load-bearing structure is already groaning—$JITOSOL is now stuck at a dangerous cantilever node. The current quote is $97.02, with a slight 24H increase of 1.97%, seemingly stable, but when you spread out the blueprints and look at the details, the flaws are exposed. The short-term Bollinger Band position has already pushed to 87%, with only 0.2% margin left to the upper band and a 1.4% gap to the lower band—this means the price is forcibly squeezed just below the ceiling, with almost no structural room to move upward. The short-term RSI reading is 66.4; although it hasn't hit the overbought red line, it is approaching the 64 warning threshold, and momentum is beginning to show signs of fatigue. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 51%, at the midpoint, representing a typical "upper layer suspended, lower layer not solidified" state. The real problem lies in the foundation depth. The long-term RSI is only 50.4, completely neutral, indicating that this 1.97% rise lacks long-term capital as a foundation and relies on temporary support from short-term scaffolding. This kind of structure fears lateral loads the most—once short-term momentum withdraws, the high position at 87% will directly become the starting point of a fall. My construction judgment: this is a beam that needs reverse reinforcement. The current price is still 1.4% below the Entry at $98.38; the rebound gap must be capped at a higher position before driving piles downward. 📉 Short: Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%) Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%) Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%) Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%) The stop loss is set at +11.6%, which is the structural safety margin I reserved for this project—if even 108.25 is broken through, it means the geological survey of the entire building was wrong from the start, and this is not a correction but a foundation redo. But before that, the short-term overbought pressure combined with the mid-term midpoint downward pull makes the first target of 94.55 with a -2.5% retracement completely workable. Remember, the whitepaper is a rendering; on-chain data is the rebar reinforcement diagram. This reinforcement diagram now tells me: the upper load is overloaded and needs to be unloaded.$ETH rebounded by 100 points, but that doesn't mean the downtrend has stopped $ETH dropped from 2738 to 2406, a decline of 330 points. It rebounded for a day and a half, recovering just over 100 points. What does this price level mean: 2550 is a round number and also the position where bears entered for the second time. After falling 330 points, it only recovered a bit over 100 points, with the rebound less than half of the decline. How is this calculated: The 7-day moving average is at 2580, pressing from above. Resistance zone is between 2557 and 2565, support is first seen at 2500. If broken, look at 2484, and if broken again, look at the previous low of 2406. The rebound is less than one-third of the decline, indicating the buying side did not hold. Resistance was not surpassed, so the direction has not changed yet. Orders placed at 2550 are betting that the rebound will stop there. #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETH $BTC $ETH From Wednesday to Friday, the US will release a series of important data Wednesday: CPI, Thursday: PPI + Retail Sales, Friday: speech by Walsh Focus on inflation data and market expectations for Fed rate cuts during these days. If data exceeds expectations, BTC may face pressure; if data is below expectations, it doesn't necessarily mean BTC will immediately surge What you really need to guard against is not the price going up or down, but the repeated spikes and stop-loss hunting around the data release My approach is simple: before data release, avoid heavy bets on direction After data comes out, first observe the reaction, don't rush to chase the first candlestick Combine key levels, OI, and CVD, and wait for direction confirmation before taking action There are always market opportunities, no need to participate in every wave During such data-intensive weeks, first protect your principal, then consider how much profit to make An Air Force Medical Record: Blowing Wind on the Mountain Top for Months, Only Seeking a Big Needle to Untangle Patient: Mountain Top Wind Blower. Chief Complaint: BTC, ETH, ZEC short positions trapped, short-term holding turned into long-term investment, accompanied by palpitations, insomnia, and repeatedly watching the market. Current History: Interest rate hike expectations heat up again, inflation, oil prices, and macro pressures exert continuous stress. Bulls dream of a bull market, bears on the mountain top have been freezing for months. Diagnosis: Short Position Trapped Syndrome (Chronic Phase). Treatment Advice: Not seeking to get rich overnight or double profits, only hoping the market shows mercy and gives another big needle. If untangled, promise not to open random orders for three days. Doctor's Advice: Interest rate hike expectations ≠ market must fall, the market does not turn because individuals are trapped. Others wait for a bull market, we wait for the waterfall; others hope for new highs, we wait to get untangled. This medical record seems like a joke but actually reveals the bitterness of the bears. CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests, and the battle between bulls and bears intensifies again. But be clear: macro data is only a catalyst, the direction never changes because someone is trapped. Rather than blowing wind on the mountain top and repeatedly watching the market, it's better to let go of obsession and respond with light positions. The market is always there; surviving longer is the only way to qualify for your own big needle. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? #Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard Don't be fooled by the 24-hour inflow; short-term funds are actually sneaking out Checked the market this morning: Bitcoin at 82,600, Ethereum at 2,490, SOL at 107 Seeing the red last night, but short-term funds have been withdrawing all along. The 24-hour inflow is just an illusion From October 5 to 9, related funds outflowed nearly 1.286 billion. No new money is coming in. It's too hard to rise Bitcoin at 83,000 is key; if it can't hold above, it's useless. If 82,000 breaks, watch 80,000 Ethereum has been weak after falling below 2,500. If it doesn't improve, watch 2,400 SOL is approaching 105; if it breaks, a faster drop is likely CPI and PPI are about to be released, interest rate hike expectations are still choking the market, and the Russia-Ukraine energy agreement is also a risk I'm currently long but completely getting crushed. Looking at this market, I dare not move at all No volume, no funds; bottom fishing is like catching a flying knife Wait for the data to land and see if funds really flow back before making a move. Better to miss out than to gamble recklessly Are you currently holding no position waiting, or rushing in to bottom fish?👇 $BTC $ETH $SOL #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? Yesterday I opened a position buying Amazon $AMZN. Actually, this time the order was a bit reckless; I didn't understand it very well. In theory, funds are rotating repeatedly, and today there is some capital attracting people to come in and trade, but looking at the overall market, the current position is quite awkward. There is still a chance to be more cautious at the low level. $ETH and $BTC plummeted yesterday. Many thought the bull market was coming and tried to bottom-fish, but ended up with a mouthful of bull crap. Why the plunge? Oil prices and the US dollar rose simultaneously, pushing up inflation, which does not support a bull market, plus the US stock market is about to enter earnings season. The demand for risk aversion is high. Going forward, attention can actually be focused on the gold trend.The market turned sour overnight. $BTC dropped to 81,800, the 82K support line was broken just like that. $ETH fell below 2,500, 2,446 is precarious, and 2,400 is just ahead. $SOL failed to break 110 and is now sitting at 105.66. The panic is real. The US Dollar Index surged to an 18-month high, short positions in the derivatives market surged, longs were liquidated one after another, and oil prices added to the chaos—WTI broke $94, Brent surged to $107, with the market worried that inflation data will be pushed higher again. But smart money is doing the exact opposite. Strategy bought another 250 $BTC last week at an average price of $86,194, bringing total holdings to 848,000 coins. Note this price—it’s significantly higher than the current market price. They are adding positions during the decline, not just talking. An anonymous whale sold 410 $BTC (about $34.16M) on Hyperliquid and immediately bought 14,341 $ETH (about $36.14M) on DEX. They directly swapped from BTC to $ETH, showing a very clear directional bet. Hong Kong today listed the second spot $SOL ETF, Pando Solana ETF (2831.HK), bringing the global $SOL spot ETF net assets to about $1.9 billion. New capital inflows are opening, but $SOL is falling—this divergence is worth watching. Everyone is focused on Wednesday’s CPI. The market expects overall inflation to hit around 3.7%, driven by gasoline price increases, with core CPI expected to hold steady near 2.4%. Deutsche Bank’s analysis is more detailed: overall CPI may rise 0.57% month-over-month, but core CPI only 0.16%, with year-over-year core CPI dropping from 2.45% to 2.39%. Headline data is hot, core data is cooling. If core inflation really cools down, this round of sell-off might be an overreaction. Key levels: → $BTC $80.4K, the last line of defense, breaking it won’t look good → $ETH $2,400, rebound or free fall → $SOL $110, only recovery counts as a turnaround Core inflation is cooling, geopolitical panic is being priced in, smart money is buying. Fear has already been released early. Are you selling along or buying along? #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what else to watch in the October 15 earnings report? Big drop → rebound → small drop → surge, every time rushing to short before the rebound is complete, too impatient, position too heavy! PUMP spot price dropped about 14.3% in 24 hours, with the perpetual funding rate currently at +0.005%. OKX spot price at 8:41 Beijing time is $0.004871, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $10.22 million. The next funding rate settlement is at 12:00, and the current figure may still change. The complete hourly candle at 6:00 had a trading volume of about $1.52 million, 3.6 times that of 5:00, with the price falling from $0.005106 to $0.004999. At 7:00, it closed again at $0.004971. The 8:00 candle, not yet closed, has touched $0.004859, marking a new low in these three hours. My judgment is that there is not enough evidence to confirm a bottom yet. The most easily misread indicator is the funding rate. A positive value does not prove that bulls are still adding positions, nor can it be taken alone as a reversal signal. I am more focused on whether the next complete hourly candle can close back above $0.004999 and whether the trading volume can exceed about $408,000 at 7:00; if both occur simultaneously, I will reassess my bearish bias. $PUMP ETH: Short liquidations reached $569 million, yet some are still increasing their short positions An intriguing phenomenon: ETH is currently at 2425.72, down 4.08%, but the market sentiment shows 82% of traders are shorting. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations hit $569 million, 4.2 times that of long liquidations. What changed? The price dropped from 2497 to 2411, with 82% of accounts betting on further declines, but shorts have been massively liquidated. The funding rate remains positive (0.00217%), meaning shorts are still paying to hold their positions. Why is this noteworthy? A long-short ratio of 82:18 signals an extremely crowded short position, which in such a structure could actually fuel a price rebound. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.3%, indicating macro pressure is not favoring the bulls. Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like a passive short covering phase after crowded shorts rather than the start of a trend down. Around 2411 is short-term support, and above 2490 is a dense short liquidation zone. What to watch next: The October 14 CPI. Will the 82% short positions be waiting for a breakout or a second short squeeze? $ETH
Orbit Topic Sitemap