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Saylor often buys low and sells high, but this time he was different. $MSTR $BTC
Between October 26 and November 1, Bitcoin's price plummeted to $76,000, and Saylor took the opportunity to buy 811 more bitcoins.
Saylor currently holds 849,327 bitcoins.
I don't know how he will profit, but this time the price he bought at was definitely the lowest.针对美国联邦调查局（FBI）呼吁 THORNode 运营商拦截与币安被盗资产相关的交易，THORChain 联合创始人 John-Paul Barraford 作出回应，称节点运营商掌握的所有信息均已公开并可实时获取，调查人员无需传票即可获得。FBI 此前将币安超 60 亿美元资产被盗事件归因于朝鲜黑客组织 TraderTraitor，并呼吁 THORNode 运营商等拦截涉及所列地址或源自这些地址的交易。Barraford 于北京时间 11 月 1 日 08:02 作出上述表态，其回应涉及信息获取，但并未承诺拦截相关地址。 理念冲突：去中心化与执法干预 此次交锋凸显了去中心化金融的无许可精神与执法部门主动干预之间的根本矛盾。THORChain 是一个去中心化流动性协议，依赖独立节点运营商网络来验证跨链兑换。与中心化交易所不同，它没有中央权威来执行黑名单。Barraford 的立场强调，虽然协议的透明度有助于调查——任何人都可以查看链上数据——但它并不实施地址级别的审查。这一区别至关重要：FBI 的请求暗示了一种去中心化协议在结构上无法提供的控制水平。 对 DeFi 与执法的影响 FBWhen the market falls, some wake up.
On the morning of November 3rd, a whale address that had been silent for 22 days suddenly moved. It first redeemed assets from Compound, then sold them in bulk on-chain: 1470 ETH, about 3.31 million USD; 63.46 WBTC and cbBTC, about 4.868 million USD. In total, it cashed out approximately 8.18 million USD.
8.18 million is not an astronomical amount, but the timing is worth noting. The market is falling, most people choose to hold steady; it chooses to convert its position into cash during the decline, and it sells in concentrated bulk rather than placing slow limit orders.
More importantly, the structure. Someone who only wants to reduce ETH wouldn’t casually clear WBTC and cbBTC, and someone who only wants to reduce Bitcoin exposure wouldn’t touch ETH. Selling both assets simultaneously points not to swapping coins, but to holding fewer coins overall, reducing the overall proportion of crypto assets. The money was still redeemed from Compound, so it had to be moved out of the protocol before selling.
But a single address’s action can’t prove "funds are withdrawing," nor can costs and profits be confirmed. The 8.18 million might be a take-profit planned 22 days ago, or a hedge against further short-term decline.
What’s worth thinking about is not what it sold, but that it waited 22 days. An address that could hold still chose to act on the day of the drop, likely not based on price, but on something it believed had changed. What that something is, the blockchain won’t tell you.🚨 The bull isn't dead, but it's still at the ICU door!
$BTC's rebound to around 77,000 remains weak, with the 78,000 level repeatedly resisted. If 76,300 USD is lost, it may face pressure again.
$ETH has returned to around 2,280 USD, with 2,300 USD still a key resistance; $SOL has dropped to around 90 USD, and the weak trend has yet to reverse.
📉 Latest news: The US spot BTC ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with about 399 million USD withdrawn on November 2 alone. The capital retreat combined with the uncertainty of the US midterm elections keeps market sentiment cautious. Friday's non-farm payroll data will also be a new catalyst for volatility.
The boss says:
A rebound does not equal a reversal, and a bull market isn't declared by shouting. Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000, ETH can hold above 2,300, and SOL can defend 90 are the key points to watch next.
The trend is not confirmed, so don't rush to call the bull's return!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
⚠️ Always set your stop-loss orders properly.Revenue nearly doubled, but the stock price is being hammered down. Would you dare to take on such an earnings report?
Palantir's Q3 revenue was $2.31 billion, up 96% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. But the market focused on another figure: new contract value only increased by 6%, compared to 49% last quarter. Investing.com mentioned that U.S. commercial contract value dropped from 153% to 11%.
Binance perpetual futures fell nearly 11% in one day yesterday, now around 166. The first key level I'm watching today is the low at 165; a rebound would first target 178 (Monday's close). My view: growth rate can't be faked, but the slowdown in orders will lead to a revaluation. I'd rather wait for it to stabilize before making a move.
Do you think this is an overreaction, or is the valuation finally correcting downward?
$PLTR $NVDAThe impact of this on the stock market, crypto circle, bond market, and the US dollar—don't listen to analysts making it sound too mystical; essentially, it's about how funds position themselves. $BTC $ETH $SNDK First scenario: Republicans take both chambers. The US stock market and AI trading will breathe a sigh of relief, regulatory environment will most likely remain loose, and legislative resistance in the crypto space will be much smaller. But the bond market might come under pressure, as the market worries about expanded fiscal spending, bond yields rise, and the dollar strengthens accordingly. Second scenario: Democrats sweep both chambers. AI and big tech stocks face the most pressure, regulatory and investigation risks increase, Trump's proposed tax cuts and spending plans are likely to be blocked, and crypto legislation negotiations will drag on for a long time. Market volatility may amplify. Third scenario, and the most likely stalemate: one party controls one chamber each. Major bills basically won't pass smoothly, uncertainty over government funding and debt ceiling will cause market fluctuations. But this might not be bad for stocks; without major policy changes, funds might actually feel safer. If the results drag on for a long time, for example requiring a recount, stocks, bonds, and the dollar will definitely wobble in the short term. Finally, a blunt truth. Many people think if Democrats win, the stock market crashes; if Republicans win, the stock market soars. That's not true. Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has recorded positive returns one year after every midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%. The market isn't afraid of bad news, it's afraid of uncertainty. Once the result is out, everyone goes back to doing what they should. So don't heavily bet on election outcomes. Wait for it to settle; if it really drops, that's when to look for opportunities.#$WLD
Breaking news: A whale deposited $51 million worth of AAVE and WLD into several exchanges over 10 days. The comment section below is full of "It's going to crash."
I first pulled up the contract pool to check. WLD perpetual positions hold $29.25 million. Twenty-nine million, not two hundred ninety million. The 24-hour volume is around 20 million tokens.
The price dropped from 0.3801 this morning steadily down to 0.3642, with a low of 0.3636, a 5% drop.$ZEC: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1210-1215 range (bulls' average cost line and previous intermediate resistance platform during the downtrend), then enter short.
· The target is first 1120 (24-hour low); if it breaks down effectively, then look at the 1100 round number. Set stop loss above 1235 (bears' average cost line).
Core basis:
1. The large-scale bearish trend remains unchanged: Although there was a deep V rebound at 1120 on the 1-hour chart, the overall trend is still within the descending channel since 1397. The current rally is a technical correction after overselling and has already hit EMA20 resistance, limiting upward space.
2. Heavy selling pressure from trapped longs: Chart 1 shows the bulls' average cost is as high as 1214. The current rebound price is approaching this area; once reached, the previously trapped longs will desperately cut losses and flee. The main force will definitely not easily lift the price to help retail investors break even.
3. Long-short double trap: Short positions reach 200 million U (5 times the longs). The main force is highly likely to use this rebound to lure longs, then smash the market after retail investors chase longs, breaking below 1120 to trigger a long squeeze and profit from the shorts.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ With such a large short sentiment, has the market already bottomed out?
Historical pattern: In the past three midterm elections, Bitcoin's median return three months after the election was about -31%, with the low point occurring between 13 to 71 days post-election. But the average increase one year after the election is about 54%, so the bulls are betting on a drop first and then a rise. Everyone says it hasn't bottomed yet, so I'll play this big wave; if successful, it will accelerate our plan to flip the position by year-end, and if it fails, it's just a retreat of early profits! "Duodan stop loss set at 76000, take profit set at 80000" $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 #CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns
A closer look at Coinbase's $719M Q3 profit reveals an important distinction.
Reported net income: $719M. Adjusted net income: approximately $78M.
Crypto investment gains played a major role in the difference.
Strong headlines matter, but understanding the quality of earnings matters even more.
#Coinbase #COIN #Web3 Opinion: Bitcoin $BTC may enter a period of several months of volatility, potentially becoming an opportunity for short-term traders before the next rally $ETH $ZEC
Odaily Planet Daily reports that trader Killa stated the Bitcoin market may continue to fluctuate over the coming months. If the Bitcoin bottom has already formed, the pace of this cycle's advancement will obviously be faster. Before the next upward trend arrives, the market is likely to enter a phase of volatility suitable for frequent short-term trading. $PENDLE An anomaly, it feels a bit uncomfortable when looking closely at night.
Logically, when a withdrawal recovery happens, once the news is out, someone should rush in and volume should increase. But what about this? It dropped 12 points in 7 days, and the trading volume is only half of the usual. It's not just me feeling unenthusiastic; the whole market is inactive.
What's even more awkward is the price level — now at 1.75. Those who bought it 90 days ago have a 25-point unrealized gain, while those who bought 30 days ago are stuck, still down 28 points without recovery. On one side, holders have floating profits ready to cash out anytime; on the other, short-term holders are trapped waiting for a rebound to escape. So even though the news is out, no one is stepping in to buy, which means "withdrawals are possible" doesn't mean "someone wants to buy."
I wrote about it during the day today; the lifting of the seal has never been good news. Now this view is even more confirmed.
What I care about is whether it can hold the 1.7 level, a price point it has seen before. If it breaks down, it means a new round of bottom searching; if it holds, it just recovers some short-term momentum. There's no need to rush in the meantime. What I'm more concerned about is who will break this deadlock. $PENDLE $CRCL Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and this time I chose NO, which means betting that the earnings will not meet market expectations.
My core judgment is: revenue may not be bad, but there could be pressure on the profit side.
First, USDC circulation at the end of Q3 was about $74.58 billion, with limited growth compared to the end of Q2; the stablecoin scale expansion speed is not outstanding. Second, Circle's core profit model relies on interest income generated by USDC reserve assets. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the yield on reserve assets, so even if USDC scale grows, it does not mean profits can grow in sync.
Additionally, Circle's operating expenses have increased in previous quarters, which will further squeeze profit margins. Compared to revenue, I am more worried that this EPS will not meet market expectations.
Of course, NO is not a guaranteed win. The market may have already priced in some negative factors, and if revenue exceeds expectations and management provides optimistic guidance, market sentiment could be reversed.
My strategy is to continue favoring the NO direction, focusing on EPS, reserve income, and management's outlook on future interest rates and USDC growth. Hopefully, my position won't be blown out!
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Bitcoin (BTC): Currently trading between 76,000 and 77,000 USD, down about 1.7%–2% in the last 24 hours. Heavy selling pressure near 78,000 USD; the weekend's volume-less rally was wiped out by a single bearish candle. On the downside, watch if the dense zone around 76,500 USD can hold; if broken, lower levels will be tested.
Ethereum (ETH): Currently around 2,250–2,280 USD, down about 1.4% in 24 hours. The trend is weaker than Bitcoin's, unable to keep up on the rise and leading the fall. Short-term support is near 2,230 USD, with further support at the previous low of 2,172 USD.
Why the drop: It's not a single negative factor but a combination. The US midterm elections are voting today, so funds prefer to withdraw and wait; tech stocks are under collective pressure, the Nasdaq just entered a technical correction, and risk sentiment is spilling over into crypto; Bitcoin ETFs recorded large net outflows a few days ago, with institutional buying noticeably absent above 80,000 USD.
$BTC
$ETH $LIT Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced on November 3 that equity perpetual futures (Equity Perps) have been approved for the first time to be listed and traded on qualified U.S. regulated exchanges. These exchanges must be registered with the CFTC and have completed the notice registration for securities futures product exchanges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Selig stated that the related contracts have been deemed approved under CFTC rules and are securities futures products subject to dual regulation by both the CFTC and SEC. This move expands the scope of U.S. regulated perpetual futures products from digital commodities to traditional stocks, providing U.S. traders with a compliant domestic trading channel. 🐂 The bull isn't dead, but recovery is still uncertain.
$BTC is hovering near $77.8K, facing strong resistance at $78K. Losing $76.3K could trigger further downside.
$ETH is around $2.3K but needs a stronger hold to confirm recovery.
$SOL remains weak near $93, with ETF outflows and monthly losses adding pressure.
The biggest issue isn't sentiment—it's the lack of fresh capital. US midterms and upcoming jobs data could bring more volatility.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ The core profit logic of Circle is very clear: the vast majority of revenue comes from interest on USDC reserves in U.S. Treasuries. An increase in on-chain transaction volume does not equate to a simultaneous rise in profits. What truly determines profitability are the circulating supply, reserve yield, and the high channel distribution costs. The core market contention in this round is whether the expansion of stablecoin scale can offset the income shrinkage caused by falling interest rates.
On the positive side, USDC leverages compliance advantages and the CCTP cross-chain protocol to continuously capture institutional funds and traditional dollar transfer demand. The EU's MiCA compliance support also opens overseas opportunities. If the circulating volume rebounds in this earnings report and the platform's self-custody proportion increases, it can reduce channel commissions paid to exchanges, significantly improving profit margins. This is the signal most valued by bulls.
Risks are also prominent. The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle suppresses reserve yields, so even if USDC issuance rises, the incremental interest income is easily eaten up by lower rates; meanwhile, USDT continues to seize market share, and channel incentive costs are hard to reduce amid industry competition. Additionally, regulatory uncertainties, reserve audits, and rumors of runs will disturb funds.
The earnings report focuses on four key indicators: average USDC circulation, reserve yield, distribution cost ratio, and adjusted EBITDA. If only transaction volume surges but circulating supply growth is weak, even with high on-chain activity, performance expectations are likely to fall short. In the short term, stock prices are highly sensitive to circulation data and interest rate guidance, amplifying volatility. $BTC $ETH $SNDK A rebound is not a signal of a trend reversal: The high shorting windows for BTC, ETH, and ZEC are waiting for confirmation
I still maintain a bearish perspective on this rebound. As of November 3rd, 22:00, BTC is currently at 77,238, down 0.82% in 24 hours. The daily MACD remains in a death cross, SuperTrend is at 82,779 and trending downward; although there was a short-term pullback from around 76,389, the volume is only 0.65 times the 7-day average, making the rebound look more like a correction rather than a trend reversal.
ETH is at 2,285, down 0.18% in 24 hours, with the MACD death cross not yet reversed, and the SuperTrend downtrend at 2,490. The area around 2,360 is not a reason to "go long just because it's bullish"; the key is whether the rebound can gain volume and firmly hold near the 25-day moving average; otherwise, selling pressure after a rally may still dominate.
ZEC is at 1,191.66, down 5.54% in 24 hours. Although it rebounded from 1,120 during the day, there is net capital outflow, the MACD just formed a death cross, and there is still significant room below the 7-day high of 1,398. Around 1,350, if there is another volume-contracted rally with weakening support, that will be a key structural level for bears to watch.
On the news front, changes in stablecoin supply and anti-fraud warnings have not directly reversed risk appetite. For me: going long requires confirmation, and going short also requires the rebound structure to complete; do not mistake an oversold rebound for a trend reversal. BTC+ETH+ZEC surged sharply at the US stock market open—is this a bull trap?
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.76,386 📉—— The most expensive lower shadow today.
The 76,600 this morning was not a breakout, but a hunt. That lower shadow dipping to 76,386 wasn’t held for 1 hour and then pulled back, now it’s back above 77,200.
Long positions at full rate (0.01%) haven’t withdrawn, OI is stuck at 2.57 billion with no movement—no one really dares to short on the drop.
US futures turned green: Nasdaq +1%, S&P +0.33%. However, oil prices surged due to the Middle East, gold fell below 3900, risk appetite is split.
My judgment: 76,600 won’t be lost, at least a retest of 78,800. Only if it closes above on the 1-hour chart will 80,500 be in sight. Valid from tonight’s US session until 8 AM tomorrow before rate settlement.
If 76,600 is lost again, this daytime rebound is fake, I admit my mistake here, target returns to 75,200.
Nasdaq this time, will crypto follow?
$BTC $ETH #BTC continues to be under pressure, capital and market trends diverge
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. BTC dropped to about 73,508, with roughly $1.587 billion worth of long position liquidation pressure stacked below.
ChainCatcher relayed from Coinglass: breaking below $73,508, the cumulative long liquidation pressure on major CEXs is about $1.587 billion; breaking above $81,144, the short side pressure is about $1.43 billion. At the time of writing, BTC is around 77,228.
The pool below is closer than the one above: if the price dips further, long position pressure will be triggered first. The intensity is based on monitoring criteria and will adjust with the order book; it does not mean a large number of positions have already been liquidated.
Are you more afraid of hitting 73,508 to liquidate longs first, or breaking up to 81,144 to squeeze shorts first?
I will continue writing when the liquidation map updates, please follow. #BTC
$BTC 🔥 The US midterm election curse reappears? BTC's historical patterns are worth noting!
Looking back at the past three midterm elections, $BTC has hit a phase bottom after each election:
📉 2014: Bottomed about 71 days later at around $170, then surged over 100 times!
📉 2018: Bottomed about 39 days later at $3,200, then later peaked above $64,000!
📉 2022: Bottomed in just 13 days at $15,500, then once surged up to $126,000!
Interestingly, the time for BTC to bottom is getting shorter, suggesting the market might be forming some cyclical pattern.
📰 Latest news: The 2026 US midterm election is held today. BTC had already dropped to about $57,700 in July, breaking the previous pattern of bottoming only after the election. The market is currently focused on the election results, ETF fund flows, and the volatility brought by this week's non-farm payroll data.
A word from the leader:
History can be a reference but not a script. The rebounds in the past three rounds don’t guarantee a repeat this time.
The more panic in the market, the more you need to stay calm. 👀
Will $BTC bottom early this time, or face another deep correction?
Make sure to set your stop-loss orders properly.Odaily Planet Daily reports that trader Killa recently predicted that Bitcoin is very likely to maintain a volatile range in the coming months.
If the bottom has already been established, the speed of this cycle's start may exceed expectations. Before the arrival of a new major upward trend, the market is more suitable for short-term traders to operate repeatedly.
During the volatile phase, bulls and bears tug back and forth, easily triggering stop losses repeatedly. Trend traders can patiently wait for a clear direction, while short-term traders must strictly control stop losses. There is no absolute standard answer for the market; do you think the bottom has been confirmed? Title: BTC Rebounds, ETH Faces Selling Pressure, and SNDK Struggles at Resistance $BTC : The short position around $78,600 wasn't particularly large, but it still took a hit. BTC dropped below $76,300 before recovering sharply above $77,800. The $76,000 level remains an important support zone to watch. My pending buy order wasn't filled, so I'm now watching whether $77,000 can hold as support. If it stabilizes, I may consider a small long position. For now, patience is the better approach. $ETH #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Midterm elections, I bet the Republicans will sweep! Contrarian prediction🔥
The November 3rd midterm elections are coming with a big impact! Recently, the market has been shrinking and consolidating, with all funds waiting quietly for the election to set the direction! I'll give a hard conclusion directly: this time the Republicans will sweep both chambers, not just a narrow win!
Seat trends locked in advance: Senate expected at 53 seats for Republicans, Democrats only 47 seats; the contested seats heavily suppress Democrats, with huge pressure to defend states and almost no margin for error; the House is solidly controlled around 230 seats, firmly holding the board. The so-called tight race in the market is just a misleading illusion to confuse retail investors⚠️
The core logic of the election is simple: voters currently only care about three major pain points—prices, interest rates, and employment. The Republican economic narrative precisely matches people's livelihood demands, while the Democrats have no practical economic plan, completely losing popular support.
The traditional rule that the incumbent party loses seats in midterms is completely invalid! The old rule only applies to markets without variables; now, high inflation and high interest rates are the biggest variables, leaving opponents with no cards to play!
Market expectations are clear: a Republican victory will bring tax cuts and looser regulations, benefiting risk assets broadly. $BTC is expected to rebound and challenge above 85,000! Remember: expectations are priced in early; once realized, the good news is fully reflected, so never chase the highs! The election is just a catalyst for the market, not a signal for a one-sided bull market!
Do you think this contrarian prediction can be nailed accurately?🤔
⚠️This is only personal logical deduction and does not constitute any investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ xAAPL/USDT Update
xAAPL trades at $xAAPL 324.75 (-1.68%).
After peaking at $xAAPL 353.35, it dropped sharply to $xAAPL 322.03.
Like past ups and downs, big drops follow major peaks before finding a floor.
Looking long term, blue-chip stocks always bounce back toward all-time highs after cool-downs. Title: ETH Tests Critical $2.20K–$2.25K Support — Will Buyers Defend the Zone? $ETH is approaching a crucial support zone between $2,200 and $2,250. After facing rejection near $2,800, Ethereum remains trapped in a descending channel, with selling pressure keeping the broader trend weak. Buyers need to defend the current support. A rebound toward $2,400 could be the first sign of recovery, but $ETH needs a confirmed daily close above this level to challenge the bearish structure. For now, pati$BTC $ETH $SOL Short positions got crushed again, still dare to short?
$BTC: Moving up with volatility, shorts keep getting hit
$77,397, down 0.73% in 24h, high $78,147, low $76,386, long-short ratio 2.67 (4h ago 2.77), open interest $2.581 billion. In the last 4h, liquidations: shorts $1.846 million, longs $38,000. Price surged then pulled back, failed to break $78,147, upward move still needs to consolidate.
$ETH: Slight recovery, shorts liquidated the hardest
$2,286, down 0.12% in 24h, high $2,309, low $2,237, long-short ratio 2.16 (4h ago 2.46), open interest $1.462 billion. In the last 4h, liquidations: shorts $6.52 million, longs $105,000. Touched $2,309 then pulled back, only a firm hold above $2,300 would signal the pain is over.
$SOL: Longs and shorts liquidated evenly, a draw
$93.16, down 1.33% in 24h, high $94.89, low $90.87, long-short ratio 3.41 (4h ago 3.42), open interest $332 million. In the last 4h, liquidations: longs $545,000, shorts $538,000. Hovering between $92.47-$93.68, if it doesn't reclaim $94.89, direction remains uncertain.
Summary: In the last 4 hours, total liquidations reached $9.592 million, shorts accounted for $8.904 million.
A slight rise already forced shorts to pay this much.
For market record only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ xNVDA Market Outlook
* Current Price: xNVDA is trading around $xNVDA 207.59.
* Recent Trend: The chart shows a drop from a peak of $243.24 down to a low of $xNVDA 201.24. The 30-day view is down 11.76%.
* Prediction: Markets always move in cycles of ups and downs.
Following past drop-and-recovery patterns, xNVDA could hold support near $200 before attempting a bounce toward the moving averages near $210 to $xNVDA 213. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x68af opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 2,282.81 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 684,841.65 USD
▪ Leverage: 8xBTC Historical Cycle Review📊
Looking back at Bitcoin's past bull and bear markets:
Topped in 2013, bottomed in January 2015, lasting 13.5 months;
Top in 2017, bottomed in December 2018, lasting 12 months;
High point in 2021, with the major bottom only landing in November 2022, taking 12.5 months.
If this cycle's peak is in November 2025, applying historical cycle projections, the real major bottom of this bear market will most likely fall in November–December 2026.
History can be referenced but does not simply repeat; cycles are probabilistic projections, not ironclad rules. So according to this timeline, is it really time to start bottom-fishing now?
⚠️ Cycle projections are only historical data reviews and do not constitute any trading advice. Market conditions can vary, so do not enter positions based solely on cycles.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 94.00-94.50 range (previous downtrend consolidation platform and 24-hour high resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The target is first 90.79 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the 90.00 whole number support. Set stop loss above 95.20.
Core basis:
1. Bears absolutely dominate: Figure 2 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 31.49%, with short positions reaching 385 million U (3.1 times that of longs!). The average short cost is 97.48, currently in a large profit state (73% profit ratio), providing strong defensive space and confidence to add positions.
2. Heavy selling pressure from deeply trapped bulls: The average long cost is as high as 104.43, with deep losses exceeding 15 million U. Any rebound above will face bulls cutting losses to exit, making it very difficult for the main force to directly push prices up.
3. Positive funding rate and moving average resistance: The funding rate is positive (0.01%), meaning longs pay high holding costs, which easily triggers the main force to spike down to clear longs. Although the 1-hour level is oscillating at a low position, the overall trend remains in a descending channel, making rebounds an opportunity to enter short.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Old Leek Observation $MPLX: Solana's New RWA Story
Metaplex recently launched MPL-3643, which is worth paying attention to. It can be understood as Solana's version of ERC-3643, aiming to enable real-world assets such as securities, real estate, and private equity funds to achieve on-chain identity verification, holder qualification restrictions, and compliant transfers.
This is not just a PPT story: MPL-3643 has already entered Early Access on the Solana mainnet. But after reading the official documentation, I found an issue that the market might easily overlook:
The protocol fees for MPL-3643 use $SOL, not MPLX.
24-hour increase is about 37%, 7-day increase about 112%, 24-hour trading volume about $68.56 million.
The market has already started trading this story.
There is also a risk: the official documentation shows that MPL-3643 has not yet completed a security audit and is currently still in the Experimental stage. Lost 38.2 million and still adding to the position, this rolling position guy really doesn't care about his life 😂
There's an address that's been rolling since June last year, with a total loss of about 38.2 million USD on the contract, and it has liquidated who knows how many times in between. Just now, he added 450,000 USDT margin to the account and directly opened a short Bitcoin position worth about 9.35 million USD, entry price 77,429, liquidation set at 81,464, leaving only about a 5% buffer.
Earlier, he was also holding a 7.19 million USD 40x short, with the liquidation price almost touching the current price. After adding margin, he just moved the liquidation line up a bit and increased the position size. Losing this badly and still not stopping, just watching makes my palms sweat.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC 🔥Bitcoin officially comes of age! This 18th anniversary coming-of-age ceremony sends chills down the spine when you think about it!
On October 31, 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis swept across the United States, with $700 billion poured in to bail out banks. Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin whitepaper, with the phrase "no need for a trusted third party," directly challenging the entire traditional financial system.
Who could have predicted the changes over eighteen years?
The product once meant to disrupt Wall Street has ultimately walked right into Wall Street's capital feast.
✅ 2010: 10,000 BTC only exchanged for two pizzas
✅ 2017: First surge to the 20,000 mark, the first crazy bull market
✅ 2021: Peaked at 69,000, followed by the FTX collapse, wiping out countless assets
✅ 2024: Spot ETF approved, institutional gates fully opened
✅ 2025: New all-time high, surpassing $126,000
Behind the glory, undercurrents have long been surging.
Chips continue to concentrate heavily in top institutions, the decentralization narrative keeps fading; under the block reward halving cycle, miner fee income remains sluggish, with selling pressure risks lurking long-term; looking further ahead, quantum computing hangs like a sword overhead, ready to rewrite the underlying security logic at any time.
It has indeed completed an unprecedented financial experiment and achieved tremendous secular success.
But ironically: it has ultimately become deeply bound to the centralized financial giants it originally aimed to escape.
The original intention remains, but the playing field has long changed players.
#Bitcoin #Bitcoin18thAnniversary $BTC ⚠️ Capital divergence is rising! BTC's low-volume bounce may be a bull trap.
$BTC is down 7.3% in October, stuck around $77K–$80K. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $643M in outflows on Oct 30, while the Coinbase Premium stayed negative for 38 straight days, signaling weak US demand.
Miners are also facing pressure as revenue per hash dropped 17.5%, potentially increasing selling pressure.
BTC's next key test is $80K. Failure to reclaim it could trigger another correction. #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 🚨 History repeating? Ahead of the US midterm elections, $BTC faces pressure again!
Looking back at the past three US midterm elections, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks:
📉 2014: Bottomed around $171 about 71 days after the election, a drop of approximately 48%.
📉 2018: Fell to around $3,200 39 days after the election, a pullback of about 50%.
📉 2022: Reached $15,500 in just 13 days, a decline of roughly 16%.
Now, the 2026 midterm elections are approaching, and market expectations for control of Congress are shifting. Latest forecasts show the Democrats have about a 95% chance of taking the House and about a 76% chance of winning the Senate.
If the Democrats ultimately regain control of both chambers, how will the market react? Policy battles, fiscal spending, and crypto regulation could all become new focal points.
A word from the leader:
Historical data is indeed worth caution, but three declines do not guarantee a fourth.
What really needs attention is whether there will be new changes in capital flows, macro policy expectations, and market sentiment after the election results are announced.
If control of both chambers reverses, will $BTC usher in a new round of volatility? Worth continuous observation!
⚠️ Past performance does not indicate future trends; always set stop-loss orders on your trades. Apple's earnings data clearly exceeded expectations, yet the stock price performed poorly, which is quite thought-provoking!
The market never buys based on how much profit is made right now, but rather bets on whether continuous returns can be generated in the future; pricing always reflects the future. If you can't keep up with this wave of AI, even if the current gross margin looks impressive, the stock price is likely to remain under pressure. On this track, Apple has clearly fallen behind and become disconnected ⚠️
Whether it's the US stock market or the crypto market, this logic is consistent. For ETH and SOL to strengthen, it also depends on whether the subsequent narrative can be realized and if there is sustained incremental expectation support.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The direction of the election will influence interest rates and regulatory trends; the overall environment for risk assets going forward largely depends on the outcome of this election.
⚠️ This is just a market observation and does not constitute any investment advice $AAPL $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Is it time to start pumping?
You may not trust hackers' character,
but you can't deny their insight.
An old hacker who stole about $22 million four years ago bought 7,548 ETH during this downturn, then sent 4,000 of them into a mixer. Is there really an unremovable mark on the chain?
$ETH $NEAR Early giant whales around 4.1 directly sold off more than 2.4 million tokens, making a huge profit and then immediately opened short positions. The pitiful buy orders on the spot market simply can't absorb this level of distribution. On top of that, there are additional issuances and unlocks weighing down, clearly showing that the bears are dominating this market.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇Severe capital divergence! Slight rise on low volume, possibly the calm before the storm ⚠️
$BTC has dropped 7.3% cumulatively in October, currently oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD, with clear capital divergence.
Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 643 million USD on October 30, ending a four-day consecutive inflow; Coinbase Bitcoin premium index fell to its lowest point since November 2022, remaining negative for 38 consecutive days, indicating that US capital buying is basically exhausted.
Pressure also lurks on the miner side: total revenue in October hit an 11-month high, but revenue per unit of computing power dropped 17.5%. If the coin price continues to decline, miners may release further selling pressure to cover costs.
Many feel the slow weekend rally is a bull trap, a judgment worth noting. Capital has not truly warmed up; relying on a small weekend rise on low volume is unlikely to stabilize the market.
BTC fell below 77,000 last night, currently slightly rebounding with a 0.65% oscillation. The key is whether it can hold above 80,000. Failure to hold will lead to a deeper correction, with resistance at 84,000–85,000.
Trading strategy: do not chase the rise or sell in panic; always set stop-loss orders.
$BTC $ETH $ZECHow exactly do the midterm elections affect the crypto market? I break it down into three scenarios:
① Democrats take both chambers — bearish, but the market has already priced this in, so it’s not a new negative factor.
② One party takes one chamber — policies won’t change much, funds will actually feel safer, and there will be room for a rebound.
③ Republicans take both chambers — a miracle scenario, regulation continues to loosen, policies provide support, and crypto will take off directly.
Among these three scenarios, even the worst case is just like this.
So I’m not looking too far ahead, and I’ve already mentioned my positions in advance.
Bitcoin: 76200, 75700, 74900
Ethereum: 2220, 2200, 2150
If it reaches around 74900/2150, I will consider setting up medium- to long-term bullish positions on Orange #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $AKE faces approximately 2.1 billion tokens unlocked monthly, concentrated holdings, and a lack of substantial adoption data. Coupled with recent Binance security incidents triggering altcoin sell-offs and leveraged long liquidations, the price has plummeted over 95% from its peak, currently around $0.004, with a 24-hour drop of 20-40%.
The liquidation map shows slightly greater long liquidation pressure below; the short-term direction is unclear but there is a high risk of price spikes. This is a typical highly volatile speculative coin, with unlocking and sentiment driving the trend, low control by whales. Without significant fundamental positive news for whales to accumulate and hype, it’s basically doomed.$ZEC whales are acting too impatiently, directly scooping up $3.8 million worth of spot on-chain, then immediately opening 8,000 ZEC leveraged long positions.
This kind of spot bottoming combined with contract short squeeze tactics clearly aims to stir things up before next week's protocol upgrade.
Currently, the price is firmly stuck at the 1200 support zone, with a bunch of shorts stubbornly holding on. Big money is forcibly building positions at this level; this batch of shorts is very likely the ready kindling—just a slight push upward can trigger liquidations and send it soaring.
$ZEC Title: ETH and SOL Face Mounting Pressure as October ETF Outflows Weigh on Market Sentiment $ETH is trading near $2,250, while $SOL is hovering around $92. Both assets remain under pressure as institutional demand weakens and broader market uncertainty keeps investors cautious. October's ETF flows highlight the challenge: - ETH recorded approximately $1.61 billion in net outflows. - SOL saw around $144 million leave its ETFs. Even BitMine's continued $ETH accumulation hasn't been enough to coGood news came out, but $BTC actually dropped
On the day macro released good news, $BTC plunged to 76,700.
Breakdown under the cover of good news:
The rebound lacked volume, just waiting for an excuse.
Once the news landed, sell orders followed.
How this number is calculated:
From 76,700 to 77,700 is a $1,000 gap.
No transaction support in the middle, price moves fast.
One step further down, if 76,700 breaks again, there is no reference below.
The low-volume rebound can't hold the second test.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC BTC is engaged in a "structural defense battle" above the 50-week moving average (75,728). The combination of the daily RSI at 39 and the 4-hour golden cross points to a "technical correction within a bearish trend," rather than a trend reversal. 78,219 is the confirmation line for whether the correction can escalate, and 75,728 is the judgment line for the bull market structure. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are splitting, and the remaining bulls are paying the most expensive funding rate in 90 days—the "volume" of leverage has been cleared, but the "quality" has not improved. In the middle position, waiting for a high-volume daily candlestick to choose a side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $BTC: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 77,500-77,800 range (EMA resistance zone and previous small platform) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 76,360 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then target the 76,000 round number. Set stop loss defense above 78,200 (24-hour high).
Core basis:
1. Bears absolutely dominate: Figure 2 data shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 18.06%, with short positions reaching 3.43 billion U (5.5 times that of longs!). Currently, both longs and shorts are at a loss (long average price 85,628, short average price 75,924, current price 77,126), but in the face of this massive short force, longs are powerless to mount an effective counterattack.
2. Weak moving average convergence: On the 1-hour level, EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are tightly converged near 77,100, with rebound highs continuously declining. This weak rebound convergence pattern is likely a downward continuation, with a potential breakdown at any time.
3. Heavy selling pressure from deeply trapped longs: The long average price is 85,628, with over 68 million U deeply trapped. Any rebound above will face longs cutting losses to exit, and the main force will never easily lift the price to help retail unwind. The rebound is an opportunity to enter short, with an excellent risk-reward ratio.
$ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压
Revenue 114.5 billion +12%, EPS 2.10, iPhone 57.6 billion +17.5% — all three exceeded expectations, Apple delivered its strongest fiscal year ever. But after the earnings report, the stock fell 5%, not due to revenue, but profit.
The trigger was the conference call:
· December quarter gross margin guidance 45%-46%, 2-3 points lower than this quarter's 47.9%, market expected 46.7%
· Service growth guidance 8%-9%, market expected 10.7%, the lowest in over three years
· Inventory surged from 5.7 billion to 14.5 billion (+154%), high-priced memory costs to be recognized in the December quarter
· Siri AI cloud inference costs now included in service costs
New CEO Ternus himself admitted: this round of memory price increases is "unprecedented."
The key contradiction is this: Apple’s current forward PE of 36x is twice that of the S&P 500 and at its own 99th percentile historically. The market is paying a "certainty premium," but this time it’s getting "revenue is fine, profit is uncertain."
Moreover, revenue growth is driven by price increases — the Pro series raised prices by $100, not by volume. Greater China revenue of 17.5 billion, although +21%, was 1.2 billion less than expected and declined 6.8% quarter-over-quarter.
My judgment: this is not a fundamental collapse, but a valuation with too little margin for error. Title: BTC and ETH Face ETF Outflows: Why Bottom-Fishing Before the Midterm Elections Could Be Risky BTC and ETH are both under pressure, and rushing to call a bottom before the midterm elections could be risky. As election uncertainty approaches, some investors believe the worst is already priced in and a recovery is just around the corner. However, the latest ETF flows suggest caution is still necessary. BTC: On November 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows. IBIT acc