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#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ As the U.S. midterm elections approach, macro uncertainty continues to rise, increasing risk premiums and becoming one of the core variables in current asset pricing. Personally, I feel the Republican Party is highly likely to maintain its majority in Congress. If the Republicans maintain control of Congress, regulatory constraints will marginally ease. Resistance to digital asset framework bills like CLARITY will decrease, potentially clarifying the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, reducing uncertainty caused by enforcement-style regulation. The market will play out valuation recovery driven by improved regulatory certainty, and risk assets will experience a round of expectation-driven beta rallies, with sentiment in the crypto sector and related concept stocks being notably boosted. However, this should be viewed objectively; this rally is more about expectation trading, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals, making it difficult to directly trigger a trend-level major rise, so excessive bullishness is not advisable. It is important to note that party division should not be the sole criterion for judgment, as there are still divisions within party members, and the bill negotiation and bargaining cycle is relatively long. The pace of subsequent bill implementation is the core factor affecting long-term valuation, so do not form a one-sided bullish expectation based solely on election results. During the election window, funds tend to reduce exposure to hedge tail risks, and the market is prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading structure. Even if the results are somewhat positive, there is a possibility of a pullback after the good news is realized. It is strictly prohibited to heavily bet on a single expectation. From an operational perspective, it is recommended to control risk exposure, prioritize waiting for event outcomes, trade with the trend after confirming fund behavior, and strictly set stop losses to hedge against sudden volatility.These days there's been widespread talk: Binance was hacked, and the hacker withdrew ETH, so the exchange's ETH decreased. Sounds plausible, but the data tells an awkward story.
On October 29, the hot wallet did transfer out about 200,600 ETH, which is alarming. But on the same day, the exchange's address actually held more ETH, increasing by about 39,000. They transferred out 200,000, yet the balance went up—probably just moving to another internal wallet.
The real decrease happened from November 1 to 2, when about 313,000 ETH left over two days. The whole week saw a decrease of 297,000 ETH, down 5.4%. Sounds serious, but the real culprit seems to be different.After the Binance hack, a very straightforward explanation circulated: the hacker withdrew ETH, so the exchange's ETH decreased. The data only supports the first half of this.
Let's look at the total amount. From October 28 to November 2, the ETH held by major exchange platform addresses decreased by about 297,000, a drop of about 5.4%. The decrease happened in two phases, and only the first phase coincides with the hacker's withdrawal time.
The contradiction lies on the most dramatic day. On October 29, TRM Labs recorded about 200,600 ETH transferred out from Binance's hot wallet. If it was truly an exit, the exchange's inventory should have collapsed accordingly. But on that day, the ETH held by major exchange platform addresses actually increased by about 39,000. Transferring out 200,000 while inventory rises indicates this was most likely an internal address swap within the system.
The real decrease happened later. From November 1 to 2, about 313,000 ETH decreased, more than the previous five days combined, and this period was already several days after the hacker incident.
So the first phase was a stress-driven transfer triggered by the event, while the second phase was the actual inventory loss. The former affects custody structure, the latter affects available supply. Mixing these two leads to the conclusion that the hacker dumped the market, but the data tells a different story.
What is worth pondering is: since these 313,000 ETH are unrelated to the hacker, who moved them in early November? Capital flow speaks first; today's market is a bit "inconsistent" (・∀・)
$BTC | Contract net outflow of $194 million, spot net outflow of $76.36 million, both sides are pulling back, short-term looks more like existing funds moving back and forth, not to mistake the rebound for a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$ETH | Contract net outflow of $95.69 million, spot net outflow of $114 million, spot selling pressure heavier than contracts, indicating not just deleveraging but overall position reduction, weakest among the three (＞﹏＜)
$SOL | Contract net outflow of $79.49 million, but spot net inflow of $8.84 million, leverage withdrawing while spot buying in, structure relatively more stable; but the volume is small, only a local probe (•̀ᴗ•́)و
Overall, deleveraging continues. SOL is more resistant to decline, BTC and others see funds returning, ETH is weaker. Now chasing gains is not cost-effective; first watch if spot outflows narrow (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections: 📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170. 📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200. 📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500. From these lows, the subsequent gains were: 🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times 🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times 🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days re🚨 New changes in BTC historical cycles! Can the upcoming U.S. midterm elections still replicate the script of the previous three rounds?
Many are still focused on the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, but what’s truly worth studying is Bitcoin’s performance after the last three midterm elections.
Looking back at history, there is a very interesting phenomenon:
📉 2014: About 71 days after the election, BTC hit a local bottom at around $178.
📉 2018: In just 39 days, the market dropped to around $3,237.
📉 2022: This time it was even faster, hitting the bear market low near $15,500 about 13 days later.
71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
In these three cycles, the time to bottom has been getting shorter!
But what’s really worth paying attention to is the rebound afterward.
🚀 After 2014, Bitcoin surged toward the historic highs of 2017.
🚀 After the 2018 bear market ended, BTC soared to about $69,000 in 2021.
🚀 After bottoming in 2022, a new upward cycle began, reaching new all-time highs in 2025.
However, an important change occurred in 2026!
This year, Bitcoin already hit a local low of about $57,850 on July 1, approximately 125 days before the November 3 election.
In other words, the previous pattern of bottoming after the three past elections may no longer hold this time!
"Those Stuck Are Betting Yes: On the Eve of Circle's Earnings Report, the Market No Longer Buys the Story"
Before the market opened on November 4, Circle will release its Q3 earnings report. I still hold CRCL, not mentioning the cost, anyway, I'm stuck. On Outcomes, I bet Yes, here is the logic.
The bears hold a strong card: USDC circulation is stuck around over 70 billion dollars, and in the past week, it has even decreased by about 800 million tokens; reserve yields are declining, with profit margins dropping for several consecutive quarters. Without growth in scale, the story can't be pushed forward.
The bulls hold a trump card: In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. Circle's almost entire revenue comes from interest on USDC reserves; a one basis point increase in rates means hundreds of billions in reserves generate pure profit from additional interest. The rate hike hurt my crypto positions but fed its interest income—one gets hit, the other eats well.
The market expects EPS around $0.37, with whispers of even higher numbers; the Arc mainnet, Binance five-year agreement, and payment network volume are all cards not accounted for in the old model.
I also acknowledge the risks: expectations keep rising, and the "beat expectations but stock price falls" scenario just played out. So I bet Yes but do not increase my position—the bet is the bet, the stuck position is the stuck position, two separate accounts.
In this round of pullback, Intel, SanDisk, and Circle all plunged together; the stronger the prior rally, the more intense the retracement. Chip manufacturing, AI storage, stablecoin financial infrastructure. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
$SNDK $INTC $CRCL $INTC, $AMD, and Micron are all under pressure.
This indicates that capital is starting to reassess the valuation of the entire AI industry chain.
I won't rush to bottom-fish just because of a big drop.
My approach is simple:
First, see if the sector can stop falling, then see if the leaders can strengthen first, and only then consider adding positions.
Bottom-fishing late is not a problem; the problem is mistaking a downward consolidation for a bottom.
Brothers, have you started positioning now? ⚠️ All rates are positive, bulls are holding strong, the decline is not over
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
BTC｜76646, 24h -2%
Range 78398—76386
RSI 32.4
MA7, MA25 resistance
Bollinger lower band 76322 is the lifeline
Breakdown target 75000
Rate +0.01%, bulls are still paying to hold positions
ETH｜2250
RSI 35.3
Moving averages turning down
2235 Bollinger lower band is the last support
Bulls can still hold, rate also positive, leverage not cleared
ZEC｜1131, -10.8%
RSI 20.7, bulls lying flat
Rate still positive, some are still holding hard
Thoughts
Wait for bulls to disarm and rates to turn negative before considering entry
No bottom fishing now
Do you think it will break 76322 first, or will bulls hold and counterattack?
Market observation only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is driving crude oil prices down, but this time I want to look one step further: can refined oil prices also come down together?
Recently, the retail price of diesel in the United States remains significantly higher than a year ago. Crude oil is the input for refineries, but the price consumers ultimately pay is also affected by refining, inventory, transportation, and taxes. A drop in crude oil futures does not directly guarantee that gas stations will lower prices the next day.
This is especially important for observing inflation. If crude oil pressure eases but diesel and transportation costs do not come down promptly, the improvement in business costs will be slower, and the relief felt by consumers will be diminished.
As shipping through the strait gradually recovers, the speed of improvement for different oil products and regions may not be consistent. How much supply returns, how much refineries can process, and whether refined oil can be transported to where it is needed all affect the final price.
Of course, I hope this round of negotiations can bring substantial progress. Energy costs have been suppressed for so long, and both businesses and households need a breather. But judging how much economic benefit a drop in oil prices can bring cannot be based on just one crude oil curve.
Going forward, I will observe crude oil, diesel, and gasoline together. Only if end prices continue to decline can it be said that this round of easing has truly started to pass through to daily operations and household bills.
#美伊谈判推进，霍尔木兹重开方案受关注 Since 2019, the net worth of the bottom half of American households has more than doubled, a trend that sharply contrasts with the widespread recession narratives prevalent on social media. Data shows that many Americans' economic conditions are far more optimistic than what is portrayed online, and this disconnect between reality and perception is increasingly attributed to algorithms amplifying negative content, thereby influencing market sentiment. Event Overview Recent analysis reveals that the net worth of the bottom 50% of American households has surged over 100% since 2019, thanks to strong wage growth, stimulus policies during the pandemic, and rising asset prices—including housing prices and cryptocurrencies held by some groups. However, this improvement is almost absent from mainstream discussions, as social media algorithms tend to prioritize sensational negative news, creating a feedback loop of economic pessimism. The gap between statistical reality and perceived reality has significant implications for investors and policymakers interpreting consumer confidence and spending patterns. Market Impact The divergence between actual wealth growth and public sentiment may produce the following market effects: Stocks: If the financial condition of the bottom half of Americans is healthier than assumed, then non-essential consumer stocks—retail, travel, and leisure—may be undervalued. Conversely, if pessimism suppresses spending, these sectors may underperform. Investors should watch for signs of consumer spending resilience in earnings reports, especially from discount retailers and payment processors. Bonds: Stronger household balance sheets may support interest rates remaining higher for a longer period,The Fear and Greed Index rose from 34 to 37, and BTC also increased by 0.48%. Panic has eased a bit, but is the market really safe? 1. News. The latest reading of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 37, up 3 points from the previous 34, but still in the panic zone. BTC is priced at $78,355.7, up 0.48% in 24 hours and down 2.58% over the past week. The market continues to digest Binance's approximately $5.8 billion net outflow and progress in tracking hacker funds; prices and sentiment have improved in sync but have not completely shaken off the impact of these events. 2. Capital Impact. The latest single-day net inflow for BTC ETFs is $34.7 million, with a 5-day net inflow of $413.8 million and a 10-day net inflow of $176.9 million. The US Dollar Index is at 101.92, up 0.04% intraday, and gold is up 0.42%. Funds are still flowing in, but the latest single-day strength has diminished; the sentiment rebound seems more like a passive recovery after price stabilization rather than an active push by new funds. 3. BTC Implications. The Fear and Greed Index rising from an extremely low level usually only indicates that the most crowded panic trades are starting to recede and cannot be directly taken as a trend reversal. A reading of 37 is still below the neutral line, and as long as the price falls below 76,265 again, sentiment can easily reverse. Conversely, if the index continues to rise and ETFs maintain net inflows, the rebound has a chance to evolve from a recovery rally into a trend rally. 4. Indicators to Watch. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether the Fear and Greed Index can rise continuously and break through 40; second, whether the single-day ETF inflow can expand again;#Apple's new CEO receives the first performance report for iPhone 18: revenue of $114.477 billion, EPS 2.10 beats expectations, yet the stock price fell 1.83% to close at 338.32 — even a beat in the earnings report couldn't save the stock price, this is the cost of a 40x PE ratio. The market reaction is very honest: strong iPhone sales, holiday season guidance exceeds expectations, but Greater China and iPad fall short of expectations, tariff refunds also propped up EPS. Three highlights: first, can iPhone 18 sales support the 40x valuation, especially after a 24% rise this year; second, is the weakness in Greater China a trend signal; third, the "non-money-burning" AI strategy was neither disproved nor credited in Ternus's first earnings report. The bulls and bears are directly divided: bulls say revenue +12%, annual profit 132.175 billion up 18% year-on-year, fundamentals are solid; bears say even with a beat, the stock fell, indicating expectations were too high. My view: this post-earnings sell-off looks more like profit-taking, not a breakdown in logic, but 338 is not far from the monthly low of 332.89, so don't rush to buy. Volatility won't be small. Do you think the Greater China gap can be filled next quarter? This is not investment advice, DYOR #Apple Q4 revenue beats expectations, next quarter gross margin guidance under pressure $AAPL The hurdle of one cent, why DOGE always stumbles here
0.1, 0.15, 0.2 — DOGE keeps tugging back and forth at these price points. My judgment is simple: these aren’t lines drawn by technical analysis, but walls built tick by tick from the psychological accounts of millions of retail investors.
The human brain only recognizes whole numbers when accounting. You set a take profit at 0.2, not 0.197; they watch the stop loss closely at whether 0.1 breaks or not. It’s like rounding up for discounts — no one calculates down to the decimal, everyone rounds to whole numbers. Buy orders queue just below the whole number, sell orders pile up just above it, and the order book’s thickness grows naturally this way.
So don’t get the cause and effect backwards: it’s not that analysts draw lines and then prices fight there; prices fight first and then lines get drawn. Around whole numbers, those trying to break even want to exit, bottom-fishers want to enter, and profit-takers want to cash out — three groups collide at the same price. What’s called support and resistance is a trace left by people, not a blueprint directing price.
$DOGE is especially subject to this: low unit price, one cent per step, many retail investors, so the volume in psychological accounts is naturally sufficient. I don’t see these levels as trading signals, but as an emotional thermometer — if volume supports it, the price breaks through; if it can’t push, it retreats to the next anchor and stays there. Anchors are man-made and can be dismantled by people too, so don’t nail your position to scales drawn by others. $XRP: Coinbase premium drops to an 8-month low, US buying interest is withdrawing
Today XRP is at 1.2555, up 0.27% in 24 hours, while BTC fell 1.32% in the same period. On the surface, it seems resilient, but the capital flow has been moving in the opposite direction these past few days.
On November 1, Ripple custody released 1 billion tokens, then locked back 700 million the same day, resulting in a net increase of 300 million tokens. These 300 million have not yet been seen moving into exchanges, but the circulating supply has indeed increased significantly.
US buying interest is shrinking; Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.16%, the lowest in 8 months. The spot XRP ETF had a net inflow of only $18.83 million in October, the lowest since January, and on Monday there was a net outflow of about $530,000.
On OKEx, buy orders account for 46.8%, with slightly heavier sell orders. The price is still suppressed below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. 1.2239 is the lower edge of the descending triangle; if it breaks down, the next reference level is the June 5 low at 1.0692.Tokenized stocks reaching roughly $3.8B after 10 consecutive record weeks is notable because product breadth is now pairing with market plumbing. Securitize's additions on Solana widen the menu, while NYSE and Broadridge's plans address voting and transfer functions that matter to holders.
That still does not prove durable trading demand. Capital may follow only if access, liquidity, and shareholder rights improve together.
#TokenizedStocksRecord 看到BTC跌向7.6万，很多人第一反应是"AI叙事崩了所以山寨带崩大盘"。这个归因太顺滑了，顺滑到有点可疑。 真正值得盯的，是价格下来之后衍生品那头有没有跟着"松"？ 先看事实：黄金稳在3900附近，美股涨跌互现，甲骨文因AI投入担忧跌了8%，比特币回落到7.6万一线，AI概念山寨同步走弱。另一边，币安据报动用了近一半SAFU比特币储备去填损失，Mercado Bitcoin爆出4600万美元安全事件、约1100万被冻结，Lisk直接关停L2转向业务金融服务。三条消息放一起，味道其实不太一样。 我自己的感受是，这波更像"风险预算被收紧"，而不是单一叙事塌方。AI板块走弱只是导火索，真正传导的是持仓端的脆弱：当价格往下试探，高杠杆多头被迫减仓，资金费率若从偏正快速回落，说明多头在主动缴械；而持仓量如果没跟着大幅收缩，反而意味着空头在接手、挤压的弹簧还在。山寨跌得比BTC急，恰恰是因为它们的衍生品深度更薄，一点平仓就能砸出大坑。 偏多的路径也成立：如果这次下探只是把过热的杠杆洗掉，持仓和费率同步降温后再企稳，那7.6万附近反而可能是一个情绪出清后的观察窗口。但风险没被充分定价的地方在于，S$ETH is structurally neutral to bearish, with the price running just below the Bollinger middle band near 2254, showing weak rebound strength. Key levels to watch: resistance above at 2282, where the upper Bollinger band overlaps with positions looking to exit; support below at the 20-hour low of 2236, and further down at the 96-hour low of 2207. Given the order situation, the current price of 2254 is a direct market sell without waiting for a rebound, because the resistance at 2282 is clear and the current price is a usable entry point. Stop loss is set at 2284, just above the upper Bollinger band; if the price closes back above this, it indicates the rebound has turned into a true breakout, invalidating the bearish logic, and the position should be exited immediately. The target is the previous low support zone around 2210, which is the first real support above the 96-hour low at 2207; breaking below this will open up a larger downside space. On the funding side, there has been a net active sell of about 38,000 units in the past 24 hours, with selling pressure not yet fully absorbed. Risk note: if the rebound strength exceeds expectations and directly eats through 2254, the short logic needs to wait for structural confirmation again. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $IRYS This monster is about to come alive, whether you’re scalping or watching it act wild
IRYS intraday +56%, but I only dare to trade it short-term, the reason is written in the supply chart
Today I made an intraday trade on IRYS: entered around 0.0213, return +56%.
After the fun, let’s get serious—why I absolutely won’t hold this as a mid-term position.
First, what is it:
🔹 Irys, AI data Layer-1, focusing on "programmable data," EVM-compatible execution layer
🔹 Market cap 45.22 million, ranked 162 by market cap—mini cap among small caps
🔹 Down from ATH by -93%: was 0.32 on October 24, now 0.0226
🔹 Circulation rate 20%: out of 1 billion total supply, only 200 million released, 4x tokens still locked in treasury
🔹 Turnover rate 4.59%, 24h fluctuation range 0.019–0.023
I’ve seen this "supply structure" pattern five times already (CT, PEPE, BLUR, DOS, XPL), the rule is exactly the same:
Small circulating supply + AI narrative + deep dip rebound = intraday pulse paradise, but a nightmare for heavy overnight holding.
Where did today’s +12% come from? Not a fundamental turning point—it’s because 80% of tokens are locked in treasury, and only 45.22 million market cap circulating supply is on the market, so even a little capital can trigger double-digit volatility. It pumps fast and dumps just as fast, and the low-cost tokens that dump are neatly lined up on the unlock schedule.
So for this +56% intraday gain, my discipline is:
① Position sizing as "ready to zero out anytime"—this kind of coin has overnight risk far greater than overnight reward
② Take profits on floating gains without upgrading belief—intraday profits come from volatility, don’t fool yourself into thinking it’s value investing
③ When seeing AI narrative + low circulation, first check unlock schedule, then decide how long to hold
In one sentence to summarize this series: the coin’s true nature is 70% written in the supply chart.
Have you ever profited from coins that feel great intraday but crash overnight? Let’s talk in the comments.Bold prediction: within two years, it will be difficult for the crypto space to see a true bull market.
To end this long icy bear market, three tough hurdles must be crossed.
The first hurdle is the maturity of decentralized custody by exchanges, proven through practical tests, with market-confirmed solutions to custody theft risks.
The second hurdle is BTC price halving, with high-level bubbles fully cleared and massive trapped positions turned over and digested.
The third hurdle is the completion of cryptographic upgrades to mainstream underlying protocols, while resisting AI hacker attacks and withstanding quantum computing cracking risks.
Currently, centralized custody vulnerabilities are frequent, AI hacker attack thresholds are lowering, and quantum long-term risks are approaching.
Upgrading the underlying protocols of BTC and ETH is extremely difficult, and these three tasks are unlikely to be fully realized within two years.
There may be short-term thematic rebounds during this period, but those are not bull markets, just pulse movements within a bear market.
The old security system has shown cracks, the new underlying standards have not yet formed, and the icy bear market is destined to be long.
Stay calm and observe the big trend, rely on your own insight, and depend on your own security. When $TAO AI trading is congested, how can the demand for TAO prove that it is not just thematic rotation? Concerns about tech stocks' AI capital returns are rising, and related crypto themes may simultaneously face valuation compression. If TAO has sustained contributors, genuine task demand, and subnet quality, it can still be distinguished from pure conceptual assets. The opposing view is that liquidity withdrawal leads to high volatility; if contributor activity drops sharply with reward changes, long-term demand has yet to stabilize. Evaluating paid tasks versus non-incentivized usage, only repeated demand supports network value, not narrative hype. For further confirmation, I will separate news shocks, capital flows, and real usage for examination; only if at least two factors align across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term assessment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, I will remain cautious and wait for subsequent data. #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress Down 26.1% in One Month, Market Cap Evaporates by $236 Billion, Stock Price at 466.84 Stuck at Monthly Low — Earnings Report to Be Released Tonight (After Market Close on November 3), Market Comes with Intel's “Meltdown” Shadow. Three Highlights: First, whether the Helios AI system commercialization can provide solid order signals, which is the core test for the “second pole of AI chips”; second, whether Intel's exposed PC weakness will transmit, AMD itself also fell 7.52%; third, Wall Street's highest target price of $1250 versus the current price of 466, the divergence is absurdly large. Bulls and bears are clear: Bulls say the AI growth story is still impressive, the pullback is an opportunity; bears say PC concerns + overvaluation, Intel has already put the industry's problems on the table. My view: This wave is a double hit of sentiment + industry contagion, not that AMD's own earnings are bad, but guidance is much more important than numbers, if Helios has no solid product yet, it still needs polishing. Volatility? The 26% monthly drop says it all. Do you bet on a rebound after the earnings, or wait for Helios orders to land? This is not investment advice DYOR #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress $AMD Today’s intraday movement was shocking again, the lowest was 76386, but it pulled back, now at 76994. Around 76500, this is already the third time the market has been supported.
The first time was 76519, the second 76265, and today 76386. Every time it drops, someone steps in to buy.
Some say this is a strong bottom, but I advise everyone not to rush to celebrate. The same level has been tested three times without breaking, which does show support, but on the other hand, every rescue costs real money, the buy orders are being consumed, and if you look at the rebounds, each one is weaker than the last. Holding the line doesn’t mean it can push higher.
Tonight, all eyes are on the US, voting is underway, and results will come out tomorrow morning. If the results are clear, US stocks will rebound, and the crypto market will catch a breather. This level might really hold. But if there’s a dispute and it drags on to a fourth time, I can’t guarantee it will hold.
So don’t bet on direction at the edge tonight. Whether this is the bottom or not, we’ll know by tomorrow morning.
How many more times do you think this level can hold?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH
$ZEC A brief observation on midterm elections and cycles. $BTC $SOL
As the midterm elections approach, the market will most likely experience another wave of volatility.
The decline may not be drastic; it's more about temporary risk aversion in sentiment and capital.
Only after the event passes is it more worthwhile to look for signals of bottoming.
Looking back at the past three complete Bitcoin cycles:
Bottoms all appeared after the US midterm elections.
In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 13 days after the election.
The time is shortening, but the pattern itself has not disappeared.
If this still holds true this time, then the end of 2026 to early 2027 might be the time window for the next cycle bottom.
I will not heavily bet on any specific day based on this.
Just noting this position as a reference coordinate for future observation.
Events may disrupt the rhythm, but it is difficult to change the larger cycle structure.
Note:
What truly matters is never the news itself, but how the market re-prices after the news.A couple of days ago, we were particularly concerned about the market confidence indicators, so here is a quick update today.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP):
$BTC price dropped to a low of 76,325 but still firmly held above the STH-RP (75,740).
Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR):
Affected by the major drop in the US stock market and the Binance hack incident, the value hit a low of 0.983 but still remained above the previously mentioned trend lower bound (0.922–0.957).
Overall, despite the interference from the US stock market and the hack incident, short-term holders' confidence remains strong, which explains why the market has not fallen despite negative news recently.
Next, we will watch the US midterm elections over the next couple of days. Once the market eliminates this uncertainty, the market can return to normal...
Also, sharing an interesting statistic:
Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the ratio of up to down in the election year was 12:7; but in the 12 months following the election, the ratio of up to down was 19:0.
In other words, historically, "buy this year, sell next year" has basically never lost.
Will this happen again this time?Nonfarm payrolls are coming this Friday, and BTC is about to face another macro test😯
At 21:30 on November 6, the US will release October's nonfarm payroll data; last month only added 29,000 jobs, and this time the market expects a rebound to 65,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%
This is quite interesting
Last week the Fed just paused rate hikes, and even two officials advocated continuing to raise rates, indicating inflation pressure remains the policy focus;
If employment significantly exceeds expectations this time, market worries about a December rate hike may heat up again, which obviously is not good news for $BTC
But weak employment does not necessarily mean a rise; if the unemployment rate worsens simultaneously, recession concerns could also suppress risk assets
Personally, I am more wary of a hawkish shock caused by data exceeding expectations
After all, under the current policy environment, BTC still faces valuation pressure from high interest rate expectations
On Friday, focus on nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth to see which logic the market trades on
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 "Funds warming up, don't mistake recovery for reversal (ง ••́)ง"
After-hours review of $BTC, $SOL, and $XRP spot and futures flows shows short-term sentiment has somewhat recovered, but it looks more like capital replenishment rather than a full-scale rally (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
BTC: 24-hour futures net inflow of $210 million, spot net inflow of $82 million, leverage and real buying aligned, bottom support strengthened; however, weekly futures still show a net outflow of $2.8 billion, indicating the recovery is more about clearing high-level positions, so chasing the rally requires caution (ง •_•)ง.
SOL: 24-hour futures net inflow of $68 million, spot net inflow of $21 million, there is willingness to follow the rise but weaker than BTC, currently seen as capital replenishment after overselling, insufficient evidence for a one-sided accumulation (￣▽￣).
XRP: 24-hour futures net inflow of $25 million, spot net inflow of $31 million, weekly spot cumulative inflow exceeds $50 million, spot support is more genuine, and the trend is relatively independent (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
Summary: BTC recovery is relatively strong, SOL's resilience remains to be tested, XRP spot support is solid. With the macro turning point approaching, positions should leave room; if CPI affects December rate cut expectations, whether spot inflows can continue will be key (ง •_•)ง.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Core rule in one sentence: The midterm election curse 【Trump is going to lose】
Since World War II, there have been 20 midterm elections in total, and the president's party has lost seats in the vast majority of them—losing 18 times, with only 2 exceptions where they won.
✅ The only two exceptions:
1. 1998 Clinton (Democratic Party): Due to the impeachment event, voters sympathized with Clinton, and the Democratic Party's seats did not decrease but slightly increased.
2. 2002 George W. Bush (Republican Party): Right after 9/11, the strong anti-terrorism atmosphere led to an increase in Republican seats.
Apart from these, almost every president loses seats in the midterm elections, many even losing control of one or both chambers of Congress, resulting in a "divided Congress." It becomes difficult for the president to pass legislation in the following two years and easier for Congress to investigate.What I'm focusing on is the bearish momentum indicated by the multiple moving average bands of Bitcoin Guppy. This is somewhat interesting, but I'm more concerned about whether it will suppress the sentiment of small-cap coins. In the material, seasonality and historical performance after midterm elections still lean bullish; signals from both sides are conflicting, so you can't just listen to the ones that sound good. 👀
My judgment is that this is bearish for the sentiment of highly volatile small-cap coins, but it doesn't necessarily mean they will definitely fall. My speculation is: if the major market can't shake off weakness for a long time, then the willingness of funds to experiment with small sectors may decline; no matter how hot the themes are, without support, they are prone to spike and then fall back. Conversely, if the major market stabilizes, small-cap coins may have a bit more room to perform.
I will be watching which sectors can maintain trading volume and discussion heat when the major market weakens, rather than just looking at the gainers list. What sectors have you all been paying attention to recently? When encountering such conflicting bullish and bearish signals, has the sentiment in the sectors you follow changed?"Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$APR cost differences mainly appear in large buy orders. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.17%/0.14%, and for 100,000 scale is 2.21%/0.68%. The asymmetry is an execution issue, not a price movement signal.
$HUMA large buy and sell costs both decrease, while small sell orders remain almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy/sell drops from 1.49%/1.15% to 1.02%/1.00%. Selling 10,000 scale still about 0.17%. Slippage recedes, the order book is thickening.
$AKE large buy cost decreases. Simulated buy slippage for 100,000 scale drops from 1.14% to 0.97%. The improvement is an execution benefit, not a directional signal.#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple's new CEO delivered the first financial report, with Q4 revenue, iPhone, and Mac sales all outperforming expectations. Demand for high-end models remains resilient, and the Americas and Europe markets performed impressively, proving the hardware foundation is still solid. However, market focus quickly shifted to the holiday season guidance, which is the core reason for the post-market weakness.
The company provided a gross margin guidance range of only 45%–46% for the next quarter, a clear decline from this quarter's 47.9%. The main pressure comes from the continued price increases of memory chips, combined with the cloud computing cost rise brought by Siri AI. The previously stocked low-priced inventory is nearly depleted, and subsequent procurement costs will further increase; meanwhile, the service business growth guidance was lowered, with the high-margin service segment slowing down, further compressing profit flexibility. Additionally, revenue in Greater China fell short of expectations, with ongoing diversion to Android competitors.
Although Apple has offset some costs through product price increases, there is a ceiling to price hikes, and excessive increases will backfire on demand. In the short term, this is an "strong revenue, weak profit" expectation gap scenario; in the medium to long term, it depends on the turning point of memory prices, AI monetization progress, and whether the domestic market can recover. If gross margin continues to decline, it will directly suppress the valuation ceiling. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Scared because I shorted at 87000, 84000, 80000, and 78500?
Don't worry! I'm going long now! Publicly setting up BTC long positions!
Why enter long at 72888? Technically, 72888 is a strong chip concentration zone after an extremely deep drop. BTC has been hammered down from the 80,000 level; if it really reaches around 72,000, it means panic sellers have been completely wiped out, and leveraged longs are basically annihilated. Buying chips with losses at this position has minimal defense space, maximizing the risk-reward ratio.
Looking at the capital and bottom cards: Strategy's overall position cost is about $75,446. If the price drops to 72,888, it means breaking through the world's largest long position defense line. Big funds will definitely use spot holdings to defend in this deep water zone to protect the market, and will never allow the price to collapse easily. Plus, after continuous sharp drops, short-term technical indicators are severely oversold, and a retaliatory rebound repair could come at any time.
Order placement method is fixed: place a long order directly at 72888; if it continues to dip to 72500, add another position. Stop loss is strictly set below 71500; a valid break means the large-scale structure has completely collapsed, so unconditionally admit defeat and exit, never hold the position. The first target is 74500; if broken, look to 75500 or even 76800. At 74500, close most of the position to lock in profits, and move the stop loss up for the remaining.
If the price hasn't reached the position, just hold cash and watch the show. Wait for that big bloody bearish candle to break through, then we enter to take profits. Follow the discipline. $BTC 其实从马斯克拉票就能看得出来，影响有多大 截止今天投票日，马斯克为这次中期选举投入的公开政治捐款已经达到4.47亿刀，创下单个选举周期个人政治捐款纪录 在这之前10月中旬公开披露的数据是3.66亿美元，之后又追加披露4.46亿-4.74亿美元 原因花这么大的资金来为选举拉票是为什么？ 如果这次是民主党掌握国会，马斯克旗下核心企业都会遭到调查 SpaceX：政府合同审查压力最大 SpaceX2025年约25%的收入都来自美国政府，大约39亿美元，同时持有金穹导弹追踪卫星等大额国防合同，民主党控制国会后，会调查这些合同有没有存在利益关系，还会影响后续拨款审批 $TSLA ：补贴和自动驾驶监管会被收紧，如果民主党推动更严格的电动车补贴规则和自动驾驶安全审查或者反垄断调查，特斯拉的监管积分收入和FSD推进节奏会承压 X社交软件：内容合规和反垄断压力上升，如果民主党要推动 平台透明度、内容审查或反垄断立法，那推特的运营成本会增加 还有$DOGE ，之前马斯克在政府效率部上班的时候，干了两件大事，第一个就是砍掉很多联邦部门、冻结资金还接触了很多敏感政府数据 民主党已经放话，说要专门调查他这些操作，This is the exact point. Scale looks good at $74.58B but retention is the metric. Reserve income $711M is gross, distribution is net. If Q3 shows Circle keeping less per USDC $ minted, growth is not profit. That's why I'm NO @Birdie_OKX $CRCLDon't panic! Let me tell you why BTC, ETH, OKB, and SOL all dropped together?
Today when I checked the market, all five major coins fell.
BTC is at $77,046, ETH dropped to $2,268, SOL fell back to $92.38, and DOGE dropped to $0.07415.
The most eye-catching is OKB, which fell by 3.15%, significantly more than BTC's 0.60%.
What exactly happened?
I checked the latest market news and found that this adjustment is not due to a sudden problem with any single coin.
First, the US tech stock sector continues to be under pressure, global risk appetite has declined, and the crypto market is also affected.
Second, there has been a noticeable outflow of funds from the US spot BTC ETF recently, combined with long contract liquidations, putting more pressure on an already weak market.
Also, today's US midterm elections results are still unknown, so market funds are naturally more cautious.
But one detail is worth noting: although all are down, why did OKB fall more sharply?
I personally hold OKB, so I pay special attention to this. It may reflect insufficient short-term buy support, but based on this screenshot alone, we cannot conclude there is a specific negative factor or major sell-off.
My judgment is that this round of decline looks more like multiple pressures stacking up rather than panic triggered by a single event.
Rushing to bottom-fish now may not be wise, and panic selling also requires caution.
What’s really worth watching next is whether ETF funds can flow back, whether leverage risks ease, and whether the market can see sustained buying again.
Do you think this is a normal correction or the start of a bigger drop?
$BTC $ETH $OKB $SOL $DOGE
#BTC #ETH #OKB #SOL #cryptocurrency North Korea says it didn't do it, the FBI says the wallets are theirs. $BTC shrugged: $77,000 before the news, $77,000 after, while $90M of longs got liquidated. Does a named culprit still matter for price, or is leverage the only thing moving $BTC right now?Too many traders are using leverage to express the same view.
BTC longs are roughly 22x shorts, ETH is 21x, while SOL is sitting at an extreme 41x imbalance. That's a lot of positioning on one side of the trade.
Here's the catch: crowded longs create their own downside risk. A relatively small price drop can trigger liquidations, force leveraged traders to unwind and create additional selling pressure. That's how a normal pullback can turn into a much sharper flush.
#OKXTraderVoices $ZEC whales are acting quite aggressively on $ZEC.
They just swept $3.8 million in spot on-chain, then immediately placed $10 million in low-leverage long positions.
Backing with spot as the base and adding low leverage, this move directly boosts the bulls' confidence.
With the main players increasing their positions so openly, bears trying to hold the current level are likely facing tough odds.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇Minting $250M $USDC on Solana looks bullish but it's not revenue. Q3 will show the real math: reserve income vs distribution costs. If USDC circulation grows but Circle retains less per dollar, growth is vanity. That's my NO thesis. $CRCL
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching?
Midterms aren't about who wins, but how Congress is divided.
Republicans hold both chambers → The CLARITY Act has a chance, BTC surges first, ETH and SOL follow, sparking regulatory narratives directly.
Divided Congress → The most boring scenario, legislation is half-dead, sentiment stabilizes but no catalysts, a stalemate.
Democrats sweep → Regulatory scrutiny tightens, ETH, DeFi, and altcoins take the first hit, BTC leans on its "digital gold" image to hold up, limited decline but no one dares to chase.
Currently, BTC is trembling around 78,000, options IV has already formed a small bump, ETFs are still bleeding money — a typical "shake before the event."
Historically, prices often dip after elections before climbing back, but this time with the added Binance black swan, don’t rely too heavily on the usual script.
Don’t bet on direction in the short term; wait for the vote noise to clear and IV to collapse, then find price anchors to buy spot; on the contracts side, if volatility can’t be sold, just hold on, don’t get shaken out by spikes.Lost 6.09 million USD within six hours, then continued to add positions. The operations of this address are worth analyzing in detail.
He closed out long positions in BTC, HYPE, and ZEC all at once, taking the loss in one go. Normally, after losing this much, one would shrink positions and wait and see, but he reversed and bought 14,583 ETH and 117,871 HYPE. The money didn’t leave the market, it just changed positions.
Closing three long positions within the same time window indicates the problem isn’t with coin selection. If a single asset performs poorly, the rest of the positions don’t need to move; taking losses on all three directions usually means the position structure can’t withstand a market reversal. And the liquidation wasn’t thorough: ZEC was cleared without rebuying, and BTC wasn’t rebought either.
Only HYPE was sold and then repurchased at 117,871 tokens. This is the most contradictory part. Bears wouldn’t buy back, and bulls wouldn’t have cut in the first place. The most likely explanation is: he’s focused on the direction but cutting costs—the old position couldn’t be held, so he switched to a new position to continue betting on the same view.
If so, the 6.09 million loss shouldn’t be read as a cost of surrender but as a cost of switching positions. Three dispersed long positions were compressed into two more concentrated bets on $ETH and $HYPE, and neither looks like a probe. This judgment is clear: privacy coins lack short-term explosive potential, but ETH and HYPE are still worth holding.
What really needs to be waited for isn’t this single profit or loss, but his next move: continuing to add means the judgment still stands; starting to cut ETH means today was just the first trade.I look at large on-chain orders like gym selfies: the size looks impressive, but first confirm if a wide-angle lens was used 😂. Core Trader 67 just opened a long $BTC position with 15x leverage, nominal position about $607,700, reference price $76,552, this "wide-angle" is indeed quite large.
My judgment is: this order indicates he is betting on a rise, but the amount alone can't determine how confident he is. Roughly calculating initial margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, it corresponds to about $40,500 initial margin, which doesn't mean he put in over $600,000 principal; also lacking account equity info, the same position could be a light probe or a heavy risk. I wouldn't directly translate big numbers in monitoring into big confidence.
Which info would you prioritize to supplement: A account equity to judge the proportion of this order; B stop-loss plan to judge how much loss is acceptable? I choose A, to first see the muscle or the wide-angle lens.🔥Big Brother Maji causing trouble again? $ETH
Cutting HYPE positions but stubbornly holding ETH, this defense is basically no defense!
Wow, Big Brother Maji just calmed down for two days and started stirring again. He cleared out his HYPE longs and casually cut a few hundred ETH, but this "position reduction for risk avoidance" looks like a futile struggle! 😂
💡 Account breakdown: going all in face-to-face
Lone ETH bet: fully invested with 2725 ETH (worth 6.14 million U), still leveraged 25x.
Liquidation price too close: entry average price 2263, liquidation price 2227! Current price is less than $40 from liquidation, safety cushion is paper-thin. Any sudden dip and these millions will have to be "accounted for" again.
Double loss: a floating loss of 20,000 U is minor, but daily funding fees cost 6,000 U. No rebound, profits wiped out and still paying "toll fees," really losing big.
Calling it defense is just shooting all bullets and leaving only bayonets to fight. This is not risk avoidance; it's clearly betting that there won't be a short-term dip! Once Bitcoin pulls back and drags ETH down, Big Brother will likely have to put on another "stubborn hold show."
⚠️ Reminder: The big players are playing with their nerves, we just watch the show.Based on pre-election polls and mainstream analysis, the forecast conclusion is: the Democratic Party has a higher probability of regaining control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate's outcome is highly uncertain. The Republican Party faces the risk of losing both chambers, but it is not a foregone conclusion. 🏛️ House of Representatives: Clear advantage for the Democrats Multiple nonpartisan election agencies and mainstream polls indicate that the Democrats will take the House. · Seat gap: The Republicans currently hold a narrow lead of 218 to 214, and the Democrats only need a net gain of 3 to 4 seats to flip control. · Poll support: Institutions like Cook Political Report expect the Democrats to gain 12 to 30 seats, far exceeding the required threshold. CNN's aggregated popular vote polls show the Democrats leading by about 9 percentage points. ⚖️ Senate: Outcome uncertain, with many variables The Senate is the biggest suspense in this election. The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to reach 51 seats to control the chamber (considering the Vice President can break a 50-50 tie). · Key battlegrounds: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, and other states have tight races. Some traditionally "deep red" states (such as Texas, Kansas, Iowa) have unexpectedly become competitive due to candidate scandals or dissatisfaction among agricultural voters. · Republican advantage: Of the 35 seats up for election, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13, giving Republicans a slight "incumbency advantage" on defense. But if Democrats hold all their seats and successfully flip 4 Republican seats, they can take control. 📉 Core factors driving the election dynamics The buying power of treasury companies for BTC dropped by 85.2% in one week.
According to cryptocurrency stock data on November 3, the net Bitcoin purchases by listed companies plummeted 85.2% week-over-week last week, with incremental buying from crypto treasury companies clearly retreating. Meanwhile, Bitmine's holdings have surpassed 6.06 million ETH, approaching the 5% hard cap on Ethereum holdings.
Two things point to the same trend: institutional buying is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, while overall incremental funds are contracting. The outlook for BTC is bearish; without the heavyweight support from treasury companies, prices rely more on ETFs and retail investors to carry the momentum, making short-term rallies more vulnerable to pullbacks. The outlook for ETH is bullish but with limited upside; Bitmine's continuous accumulation locks up circulating supply, reinforcing the supply-side tightness logic. However, the 5% hard cap means its future capacity to increase holdings is shrinking, so institutional marginal buying for ETH will decline.
This kind of treasury data is a slow variable, not a same-day price catalyst. Consider two scenarios: Scenario one, treasury net buying stops falling and rebounds, restoring buying strength; Scenario two, Bitmine triggers the upper limit rule, causing institutional marginal buying of ETH to decrease. Are you more focused on the turning point of treasury net buying or Bitmine's hard cap?
Source: Odaily Planet DailyBrent crashed yesterday but stabilized today first.
OKX current price is 106.97, today's high is 107.36, low is 103.41, basically moving sideways at a low level.
The US and Iran have signaled negotiations, and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have risen, causing the geopolitical premium to retreat; exports from Iraq through Turkey have increased, and Kuwait's production has also risen, putting supply pressure on the other side.
However, the signals remain inconsistent: the US struck Qeshm Island on Monday, Iranian media said communication made no progress, so today's slight rebound is not yet stable #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Core data analysis of BTC whale positions shows both long and short whales are at a floating loss, with the key level at 76000!!!
Overview of BTCUSDT perpetual whales: a total of 1293 whale addresses, with a nominal long-short ratio of 18.53%.
There are 333 long whales holding 635.12M USDT, with an average entry price of 85,378.26 USDT, currently at a floating loss, and a profit ratio of 38.73%.
There are 960 short whales holding 3.42B USDT, with an average entry price of 75,925.60 USDT, also at a floating loss, and a profit ratio of 56.56%.
The current price is around 77,014, with support to watch in the 76,000–76,500 range below, and resistance to watch in the 78,500–79,000 range above. The current price is between the average entry prices of the whales; neither the long nor short main forces have clearly moved away from the cost zone, so the short-term market remains dominated by range-bound competition.
Short whale positions are significantly larger, but after the price drop, the short whales’ profit ratio has not significantly widened, indicating the market is still volatile. If the support zone is broken, the long whales’ floating losses may further increase; if the price rebounds to the resistance zone, the short whales’ average cost of added positions will be tested.
For market review reference only, not constituting any trading advice #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Conclusion first: The $MELI perpetual contract (20x, USDT settled) launched by OKX at 20:00 last night is the only one among that batch of new TradFi perpetuals that strengthened: it rose from 1646 to 1685.9 in 24 hours, +2.4%. The same batch's $ADI -1.96%, $FLEX -3.73%, $UMC -7.56% all fell.
Why did it rise? The underlying stock MELI closed at 1676.79 on November 2, up 3.17% (intraday 1631→1707.87), with the market betting on the Q3 earnings report after the close on November 4; the company's fintech head also said before the report that Brazilian credit showed no signs of slowing.
But I care more about three numbers: open interest is only 20.47 contracts, about 34,500 USD; 24-hour volume is 209.69 contracts, about 353,000 USD; funding rate has been 0 for three consecutive periods; OKX has no MELI in its more than 1,200 spot pairs.
In plain language: on the eve of the earnings report, the only tool you can bet on 24 hours a day has a global open interest of only 20 contracts, and the quotes you see are set by a few dozen people. When there is a real gap, you have no spot to hedge, and the funding rate won't warn you that the premium is rising.
After the close on November 4, will you use the $MELI perpetual to bet on the earnings report, or stay on the sidelines? Strategy's fund allocation this time has completely refreshed the perception of many MicroStrategy believers: the money spent on repurchasing STRC preferred shares during the same period actually exceeded the funds used to buy BTC by three times 🤔. Although it continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring 811 BTC, the capital focus clearly leans towards repurchasing its own preferred shares, immediately sparking discussions about whether its treasury strategy is shifting.
The market has always had a fixed impression of Strategy as being all in on hoarding BTC, continuously issuing funds to buy, buy, buy. Now, the large-scale repurchase of preferred shares essentially optimizes its own balance sheet, reduces the dividend pressure brought by preferred shares, and stabilizes MSTR's own equity structure.
Some believe this is a disguised slowdown in Bitcoin expansion pace, while others think that after solidifying the debt structure, it will have stronger long-term financing ability to continue hoarding coins. It is still difficult to draw a direct conclusion at this stage; ongoing observation of its fund allocation ratio is needed to see whether this is a phased operation or a long-term strategic adjustment. This change will affect the sentiment of BTC-related concept stocks
$BTC #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ 🔥 How to view the U.S. midterm elections? The results will be out at midnight!!
Many friends have been closely watching the midterm elections recently, often mistaking it as the main factor determining market rises or falls.
The election is just an event that disturbs the market, not the root cause; the real determinants of the big picture are the Federal Reserve's interest rates, inflation, and corporate profitability.
Before the election, policy direction is unclear, so market funds hesitate to enter. Once the vote is out and uncertainty settles, risk appetite will recover.
🔺 If the Republicans take both chambers, tax cuts and deregulation of industries will likely strengthen sectors like natural resources, crude oil, and defense.
🔺 If the Democrats take control: expectations of tax increases and tighter regulation on tech and pharmaceuticals will rise, suppressing the broader market while U.S. Treasury bonds may rise.
The election has no direct impact on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the main effect is on the semiconductor memory sector $MU $SKHYNIX.
Avoid heavy positions in intraday trading; if the final result is close to prior polls, the good news may already be priced in and could turn bearish, but if the result exceeds expectations, a one-sided market may emerge!
The market never lacks stories of overnight doubling, but what’s scarce is those who remain at the table after doubling.