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The hackers are in no rush to sell, which in itself is worth pondering.
The batch of coins stolen from Mercado Bitcoin has moved again: about $8 million worth of $ETH was transferred into a new wallet. Under the same entity, there are still about $46 million in crypto assets. When the news came out, the price barely reacted.
If they really wanted to run, dumping it all at once would be the fastest way. But in reality, they only move small amounts each time. This isn’t about mercy; it’s a cost issue—dumping millions of dollars worth of ETH directly into spot market depth would cause slippage that eats into profits and immediately triggers on-chain monitoring and exchange risk controls.
So the real exit path is usually longer: first breaking it into dozens of smaller transfers to new addresses, then cross-chain moves, OTC trades, and finally slowly flowing back to exchanges. This $8 million is just one step in the whole game, not the end. What the remaining $46 million is waiting for is the key.
The short-term impact on price is actually close to zero. $46 million is barely a ripple in $ETH’s daily trading volume. What really moves is sentiment: every "hacker transfer" alert is treated as a sell pressure signal, causing retail investors to flee first, prices to soften, and only then realizing there’s actually no volume.
One question worth considering: after the other party switches to a brand new wallet, can the address tagging system still keep up? If it can’t, then the whereabouts of that $46 million become a blind spot for the market.After breaking below 77,000, everyone in the square was talking about hackers.
Actually, the real sell-off order was clear before the US Eastern session opened — ETF net redemptions of 640 million.
Market makers simply can't bear this kind of selling pressure on behalf of institutions; buy orders below 78,000 were all cleanly withdrawn.
The order book was as thin as paper; just a few spot trades thrown on top triggered a series of long liquidations below.
At this point, trying to bottom-fish only catches passive market liquidation orders.
Wait until buy orders are fully replenished before making a move; rushing in now only makes you a stepping stone.The core of the 2026 U.S. midterm election results for trading and macro judgment lies in the "Congressional control combination" rather than individual seats. Current pricing has partially reflected the expectation of the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives, with the real marginal change being whether the Senate will also change hands simultaneously.
If a split scenario occurs with "Democrats controlling the House + Republicans holding the Senate," major new legislation will be blocked, but personnel confirmations and some agenda-setting powers will remain in Republican hands. Fiscal expansion space will be limited, continuity in China policy will be relatively high, and the market may price in "increased policy constraints and a greater weight on administrative tools."
If the Democrats sweep both chambers, oversight and investigations will intensify, legislative checks and balances will be strongest, the probability of tax increases or a strengthened regulatory agenda restarting will rise, and budget negotiations will become more uncertain. Conversely, if Republicans hold both chambers, the current fiscal and tariff paths will have the greatest continuity, but historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, and this scenario has been assigned a relatively low probability by most predictive models.
If Democrats win in Texas and Kansas, it will significantly strengthen the narrative that "red states are also shifting," potentially further increasing risk asset pricing for policy uncertainty. The cost of living and inflation remain voters' top concerns, and related outcomes will also affect the subsequent Federal Reserve path and real interest rate expectations.
On the trading front, the early post-election period should focus on the speed of final confirmation of control over both chambers, vote margins in key states, and whether there are lawsuits or recounts. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Current price 3921.25, after an early session surge to 3964.54, it faced resistance and declined steadily, reaching a low of 3916.03. The 5-minute chart shows a bearish moving average alignment, the market continues to weaken, MACD remains below the zero line, short-term bearish forces dominate.
Short position: try shorting near resistance at 3928-3930 on a rebound, stop loss at 3934, target 3916, if broken continue to target 3908.
The current market is in a downtrend, prioritize following the trend to short, bottom-fishing risk is relatively high, strictly control position size, and set stop losses for each trade. If the rebound holds above 3930, the bearish outlook is temporarily paused. $XAUT I crossed out "waiting for the halving market" from my coin hoarding plan. The halving changes the new coin output, but it doesn't set a fixed date for the price to react. Thinking about how long to hold based on the cycle is pretty easy, but rent and living expenses don't follow the cycle. Seeing the company buying a lot of Bitcoin long-term, I'm quite interested in digging into its cash flow to see how long the money for buying coins can last. The announcements are lively, but I’m more willing to spend time reading the fine print about whether they need to borrow money later or if there are debts due for repayment.Calculate it: having one more reference price does not equal one more guarantee of transaction completion. Chainlink states that Aave Horizon uses perpetual contracts to price stock collateral over the weekend, which can reveal value drops during non-trading periods but cannot ensure that seized assets will be taken over by someone.
① It covers weekend pricing. My understanding is that a blind spot in risk identification is reduced, but this does not mean the risk itself is reduced.
② The reference is the perpetual contract price. If it deviates from the actual transaction value of the stock, then the collateral valuation may still be distorted, which is my concern.
③ There is no buyer guarantee. Even if a drop is identified, disposing of the collateral remains another challenge.
My judgment: this is useful for monitoring the lending side but is insufficient as a reason to relax collateral conditions. I would separate valuation basis and disposal capability. When you evaluate collateral in daily practice, do you value price deviation, update frequency, or actual transaction capability the most? The ChiNext Index has fallen below 2400 points 😑
Since the high at the end of June, the pullback has approached 45%. The adjustment in growth stocks in the A-share market has indeed been quite severe.
What’s more interesting is that this round of decline is not limited to the A-shares.
Overnight, U.S. semiconductor stocks continued to be under pressure, and $BTC also fell below 77,000 USD, dipping intraday to around 76,400 USD.
The funds in these markets are not directly connected, but the risk appetite reflected behind them is somewhat similar: when capital starts to question the pricing of high-valuation assets, the first to be hit are often these highly volatile assets.
Regarding BTC, I am now more concerned about whether it can stabilize again around 77,000 USD.
Against the backdrop of widespread pressure on global risk assets, a short-term rebound does not mean the adjustment is over.
The breakdown of the ChiNext Index will not directly cause BTC to fall, but the continued contraction of global capital risk appetite is probably what BTC needs to be most wary of now.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 I added up the transaction volumes of the top three: Uniswap V4 about 956 million, V3 about 934 million, Curve DEX about 779 million USD, totaling 2.669 billion, accounting for about 30% of the entire network. According to DefiLlama data, the total DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours was about 8.714 billion USD, an increase of 62.9% compared to the previous day and 4.1% compared to a week ago.
After reviewing these numbers, I prefer to treat this as an operational risk warning rather than a bullish signal. The single-day increase is sharp, but compared to a week ago, it hasn't widened much, indicating that the benchmark significantly affects perception. The trading volume does not distinguish between who is chasing or who is withdrawing; portfolio rebalancing can also push the numbers up, so it cannot be directly regarded as new funds entering the market.
For ordinary users, having volume does not necessarily mean every trade is easy to execute. The total network volume is an aggregate ledger; whether the pool you want to trade in is deep enough still needs to be checked individually. If active trading is accompanied by rapid price fluctuations, then the uncertainty between quote and execution may also increase; this is my speculation and cannot be confirmed solely based on this data.
Those eager to catch the hype might feel they lose out if they are a step slow, but I think it’s more practical to avoid operations without fully calculating costs. My choice is to be more cautious; if there is a real need to exchange, clarify the fees, slippage, and minimum received amount clearly, and do not let the overall network hype dictate your own trading decisions.For ten weeks, $3.8 billion worth of tokenized stocks have been simmering gently in this on-chain pot—no burning at the bottom, no overflow—honestly, this heat control is way steadier than that new sous chef in my kitchen.
I've been wielding the ladle for over twenty years and know one thing best: the value of a dish isn't about the ingredients, but the supply chain. This piece of Wagyu beef called US stocks used to be ordered only at the table, requiring a seat, intermediaries to serve the plate, and a head waiter to confirm if today's stock was available. Now someone has set that fierce stove directly on-chain, launching thirteen new dishes at once—ExxonMobil, Disney, Uber, plus the previous ones, making a full menu of twenty-five. This isn't just adding seasoning; it's moving the chopping board of the main course right to the open kitchen, letting customers watch the meat hit the pan.
Even more impressive is the latter part: the exchanges and transfer agents over there are going on-chain for shareholder voting and transfer agency. Insiders immediately understand this means the whole street is getting cold chain and traceability. Ingredients can be traced back generations, and only then can the dish earn stars. Having tokenization without registration and transfer is like molecular gastronomy plating that looks magical but is all foam when you take a bite—pretty, but not filling.
Can the capital and trading demand come in? My judgment is simple: the ratio has changed. Previously, the plates on this chain had mainstream coins as the main course, altcoins sprinkled as seasoning, and contracts as that jar of extra spicy chili powder. Now tokenized stocks bring in a whole roasted lamb; they don't enter the seasoning section—they take the main course seat directly. When the main course grows, the whole table's flavor changes—volatility is diluted, but liquidity demands rise, the fire must be hotter, the pot thicker, and the cook's hands steadier.
Then there's the linkage with that Oracle asset. It shares the same pot and stove with Nasdaq; when the flame flares there, this side of the chain immediately smells the pot's aroma. Pot aroma is good, but it's not flavor. Many mistake the smoke from stir-frying oil as fragrance, but when served, there's not even salt. Similarly, linkage is linkage; don't mistake heat for valuation.
What truly made this old chef nod is that it has implemented "portion control." That dish used to be ordered only for big tables; now it's cut into individual servings, one plate per person. Smaller portions mean faster table turnover, but the kitchen's standardization requirements multiply—cutting, heat control, serving rhythm, none can falter.
I only emphasize one kitchen rule: this pot never goes out for 24 hours, even the late-night shift is open. People's stomachs can handle it, but the stomach of positions may not. Chili powder can enhance flavor, but dumping the whole jar in means the one standing at the stove tomorrow is you, and the one crouching is your account.
Pot aroma is pot aroma; I only watch if this pot of soup is burning at the bottom. #tokenizedstocksrecord I imagined a DEX family dinner: V4 said, "My table is the liveliest," and V3, holding a bowl, replied, "Don't take my chair just yet." Version numbers in crypto are like seniority; the new ones shout louder, but the old ones don't necessarily leave 😂
According to DefiLlama, the total DEX trading volume across the network in the past 24 hours was about $8.714 billion, up 62.9% from the previous day and up 4.1% from a week ago; the top three were Uniswap V4, Uniswap V3, and Curve, with approximately $956 million, $934 million, and $779 million respectively. My judgment: this is somewhat positive for the activity of mature DEXs, but it’s not yet a victory declaration for the new version.
The biggest contrast is that V4 ranks first, but V3 is right on its heels. At least from this volume data, the old and new versions are still handling trades simultaneously, so we can’t translate the leading rank directly into a full user migration. I’m more interested in why trades remain there rather than whose version number is bigger.
Curve is also in the top three, reminding me not to focus only on the version battle. However, volume is not an experience score: if the volume increase comes with deeper usable liquidity and lower trading costs, then ordinary users might truly benefit; this is my speculation, as the data doesn’t provide these details, so I can’t hand out awards prematurely.
Suppose you want to make an on-chain swap, would you prioritize the latest version or the path with the actual lower transaction cost? Pick a side: does your wallet recognize the version number, or the few bites of meat saved?The moment the chest cavity was opened, I did not see the expected bleeding point—the perfusion pressure of the entire coronary artery was plummeting.
Free cash flow is like the heart's stroke volume. The Big Five giants' combined cash flow plummeted from a positive 143.5 billion in the first nine months to a negative 14 billion. This is not a small chamber defect; this is a circulatory collapse after stroke volume drops to zero. Capital expenditures are afterload, increasing continuously; cash inflow is preload, being drained continuously. The heart is dilating, but the myocardium is ischemic—this is the most typical manifestation of decompensation. Hedge funds have underweighted the AI theme for the first time since early 2023—equivalent to the extracorporeal circulation team starting to withdraw support. The high-output circulation maintained by external perfusion will see blood pressure drop immediately once the perfusionist stops. Buybacks have decreased by 83%, equivalent to dismantling the compensatory mechanism of myocardial hypertrophy, thinning the ventricular wall, leaving no reserve for contraction.
Meta's credit outlook turning negative is like plaque shifting from stable to unstable—the surface is still smooth, but the fibrous cap is thinning. The Big Five giants' combined cash flow flipping from positive 143.5 billion to negative 14 billion is not a single-vessel disease but diffuse triple-vessel disease. Valuation adjustments cannot be solved by sentiment therapy; this is an imaging-confirmed cardiac chamber enlargement.
The linkage of chip stocks like XINTC is the conduction system's response to aortic pressure—the aortic perfusion pressure is dropping, and the His bundle conduction will eventually fail. Hedge fund portfolio rebalancing is like adjusting pacemaker parameters; once the threshold changes, the heart rate follows. What really needs monitoring is not the symptom of price crashes but whether the cash flow coronary artery can still support the myocardial perfusion required for AI expansion.
This heart has already entered a low cardiac output phase, and the perfusionist is withdrawing support. #hedgefundsunderweightaiMidterm Election Day, three cryptocurrencies are priced by three different ledgers.
$BTC: Around 76,800, down nearly 2%. Above, 1.373 billion short positions at 80,783 liquidated; below, 779 million long positions pressured at 73,731; 7,000 USD in the middle is fuel on both sides. 24-hour liquidations total 281 million, with longs accounting for 74.57%. ETF outflow in a single day is 7,919 BTC, about 614 million USD. The price hasn't collapsed, relying on passive balance from short covering, not active spot buying.
$ETH: Around 2,250, down 1.7%. A giant whale spent 62.97 million USD over 5 hours to buy 27,553 coins at an average price of 2,286, which has already fallen below cost. On the same day, ETF net outflow is about 102 million USD, totaling 336 million over the past 7 days. A certain multi-coin whale's liquidation price is at 2,253, less than 0.2% from the current price. RSI has entered oversold territory; the rebound window overlaps with liquidation risk.
$SOL: Around 92, down 2–3%, down about 23% in 30 days, RSI 26–31 severely oversold. But oversold does not mean bottom: ETF net outflow last week was 71.47 million, the largest single week since launch, with four consecutive weeks of outflows; a certain whale deposited about 1.49 million coins to exchanges over 10 days, about 149 million USD.
Historically, BTC fell for a period after three midterm elections before forming a stage low. All three cryptocurrencies are waiting for the same event.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Chip stocks are falling deeper, and this detail makes me more alert than the cryptocurrency price hitting integer thresholds 👀. In the material, before the US midterm election voting, Bitcoin and some altcoins were also under pressure. I think this is somewhat bearish for the sentiment around tech narrative-related small coins, but it cannot be directly concluded that a certain sector has already failed.
This is interesting, but I wouldn’t equate the decline in chip stocks directly with a worsening of on-chain AI demand. My speculation is that if the market starts to lose enthusiasm for tech stories, then small coins propped up by expectations might find it harder to retain attention than projects with actual demand. High volatility brings opportunities for repricing and can easily package a brief rebound as a narrative comeback.
What I want to watch next is whether the market is willing to give sustained feedback if there are new developments in the related sectors. If it only bounces along with the broader market, I will first treat it as an emotional recovery and won’t rush to applaud the sequel to the story.Regulatory benefits keep coming, so why is the market performance different?👀
$XRP: Many compliance advances, but the ETF timeline has been delayed again. Institutional licenses are a long-term plus, but short-term prices still depend on whether funds follow through. 1.25 is a key defense level.
$OKB: Currently lacking major catalysts, which has helped avoid some market risks. When there’s no story, stability might be more important.
$BCH: Institutional channels continue to advance, but the pace is slow, limiting short-term explosive potential. Around 284 still needs monitoring.
My view: Regulatory approval is just the entry ticket; the real drivers of the market are funds and actual demand.
#XRP #OKB #BCH #CryptoMarket
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $3.8B in on-chain tokenized stocks, breaking load-bearing records for ten consecutive weeks — the facade of this building is finally starting to be delivered. I stand in front of the blueprints and see clearly: on Solana’s plot, Securitize has built 13 new walls in one go, with ExxonMobil, Disney, and Uber forming 25 standardized column grids; the New York Stock Exchange and Broadridge have connected the embedded pipelines for shareholder voting and transfer agency into the main structure. Previously, the fatal flaw of tokenized stocks wasn’t insufficient floor height, but that the basement was full of visa papers — no transfer system, no governance flow, the whole building was just a sales office model. Now that voting rights and transfer agency are structurally connected, it’s like inserting shear walls back from the display area into the basement, finally giving the load a place to transfer.
But don’t rush to celebrate topping out. The $3.8B corresponds to incremental growth over ten consecutive weeks, essentially the speed at which the construction area is expanding, not that every square meter of floor live load has been verified. The linkage of assets like $xORCL is equivalent to the podium commercial building and the main tower sharing a set of MEP shafts — when the market heats up, the turnover on and off-chain pushes the wind pressure coefficient beyond the design value, revealing which exterior frame columns are real and which are just decorative curtain walls. What truly determines whether this batch of tokenized stocks can withstand the next round of capital load are three hidden projects: the concrete grade of the settlement cycle, the expansion joints for cross-timezone clearing, and the fire water tank volume reserved for market maker liquidity. The 25 products represent column grid density, not seismic rating.
I’ve seen too many projects pin their whitepapers on renderings as facade materials, only to reveal light steel frames under scrutiny. This tokenized stock building is now under standard floor construction, but the market doesn’t want a light show on opening day; it wants a facade that won’t leak ten years later, equity registration that won’t misalign, and dividend distribution that won’t clog pipelines. If on-chain voting is just scanning paper ballots into PDFs, it’s no different from painting load-bearing walls with marble patterns. What truly attracts capital has never been the saleable area on the floor plan, but whether this structural system has passed live load transfer verification layer by layer from fund accounting to custodian banks.
The deep perspective on $xORCL’s linkage boils down to whether the damper between this podium and the main tower is properly tuned. If tuned well, the sway under wind is controllable; if not, a single issuance announcement can cause the entire floor slab to resonate and crack. The ten-week record is just the progress of pouring above grade zero, with more than a dozen equipment floors left before structural topping out. The voting pipelines laid by the New York Stock Exchange and the agency nodes connected by Broadridge are rebar, not crystal chandeliers in a marketing center. What really keeps me staring at the blueprints is: when the lateral force of a redemption wave pours in, will these tokenized stock transfer beams form plastic hinges before the equity register does? The ten-week records are a construction progress bar, not a completion acceptance certificate. #tokenizedstocksrecord JPMorgan is optimistic about the midterm elections: "Since 1950, in every year following the midterm elections, the S&P 500 $xSPY index has risen, with an average increase of about 15%. The worst one-year forward return occurred after the 1986 midterm elections, but that was obviously more related to the 1987 crash rather than what happened in Washington. I suspect part of this trend is because midterm elections often lead to the ruling party losing seats, and the political gridlock in Washington often benefits Wall Street." #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The $115 billion all-stock merger is like a thunderstorm cell suddenly bursting in a warm, moist airflow, creating deep troughs in the stock prices of Marvell and Lumentum before landing, dropping 12.7% and 18.6% respectively. The radar on duty at my station doesn’t see clear skies but pre-frontal warming: a 23.9% premium acts like warm, moist energy delivered by a low-level jet, while valuation concerns resemble cold air moving south; the two converge near the closing line, immediately triggering strong convection. The all-stock payment raises the cloud base higher, and share dilution acts like latent heat of condensation—the faster the short-term release, the worse the surface pressure looks.
The merger packs AI chips, networking, and optical technologies into the same cyclone, targeting over $1 billion in annual cost synergies and adjusted EPS accretion in the first year post-close. But in the numerical forecast, synergies are like warm-region precipitation 72 hours later, while the closing window extends to the first half of 2028, with low visibility and divergent ensemble forecasts. Integration friction is like terrain drag; no matter how good the model output, it will be attenuated by actual valleys and urban surfaces. The sounding curve shows increasing upper-level winds and accumulating low-level moisture, but the lifting and triggering conditions are not yet fully aligned.
Optical demand indeed resembles a monsoon background with elevated sea surface temperatures, providing energy to the cyclone; however, profitability conversion depends on lifting condensation height and cloud water content, not just radar echo area. The tokenized US stock target XLITE’s linkage is more like the peripheral spiral rainbands captured by coastal radar: a signal doesn’t mean the center has made landfall; amplified trading volume doesn’t mean the fundamental pressure has been rebuilt. Whether AI optical demand can translate into profits is like asking if monsoon rainfall can replenish reservoirs: it depends on the landing area, duration, and evaporation loss.
The real danger is wind shear. The higher the premium, the more complex the integration, the stronger the vertical wind shear, and the easier it is for convective cells to be torn into asymmetric structures; the initial stock price drop is a distrust vote on the path forecast. Cost synergies and EPS accretion remain virtual values in the model field, with surface rain gauges yet to confirm; meanwhile, the $115 billion enterprise value has already overdrawn the moisture channel for the coming years. My judgment only extends to this radar echo frame: a hook echo has appeared, wind shear is still intensifying, but precipitation efficiency has not yet been confirmed by surface rain gauges. #marvelllumentumdealI'm still on the road to breaking even. When I see news of capital outflows, I still feel a bit uneasy. But I'm also working on fixing a bad habit: not to immediately translate one negative data point into "the entire sector is failing."
According to SoSoValue data, on November 2nd Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $140 million, marking six consecutive days of net outflows. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA saw an outflow of $138 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSSE had an inflow of $3.1511 million. I think this is slightly bearish for $ETH's short-term capital sentiment, but the claim of "institutional collective withdrawal" is exaggerated: the outflow is highly concentrated in ETHA, and there are still products attracting capital. The divergence is a more accurate description than a unanimous retreat.
This reminds me that when looking at totals, we need to break down the structure; ETF capital changes cannot replace judgments about the entire ecosystem. To friends still breaking even, let's stay steady 💪 How has everyone's mindset been recently? Regarding this outflow, will you continue to watch ETHA, or are you more concerned about whether other products can absorb the capital?In the US, there are professional players in prediction markets. This time, we're talking about the trader Domer, who on the prediction market Polymarket has placed bets on over 9,800 markets, transacted more than $490 million, earned $2.28 million in trading profits, and also took home over $1.2 million in order book rewards from the platform. He has very precise control over the rules and the market. I calculated from his on-chain records that his long-term win rate can exceed 60%. The professional trader invited to the US 60 Minutes episode about prediction markets was him. He is very active, just like the current intense US midterm elections, Domer has long been involved. Moreover, he also bets on other markets such as elections, the Federal Reserve, and the Oscars. How does one person bet on such a variety of markets and still maintain such a high win rate? I searched for two days and finally found it—he leaked a complete set of trading rules. Such a comprehensive resource is very rare in the prediction community. Next, I will fully reveal it to everyone. Each question in the prediction market counts as a market, divided into yes and no sides. If you guess correctly, you get back one dollar per share; if you guess wrong, you get zero. So the price is the probability given by the market. His trading logic is to find the difference between his own judgment and the market price. For example, if you think an event has a 70% chance of happening, but the market only sells at fifty cents, the difference is the edge. He divides betting into four steps: selecting markets, pricing, position sizing, and holding positions. The first step is selecting markets, which involves looking at four things before deciding which side to bet on. The first is price. Every day, he scans hundreds of markets, ten 🛢️ Crude Oil Plunge Characterization: Supply-Side Recovery, Not Recession ✅
Confirmed Reasons for the Plunge: US-Iran diplomatic thaw, rising hopes for peace talks → War premium squeezed out.
- On 11/2, WTI dropped over 6%, triggered by reports of US-Iran dialogue resumption
- OPEC+ has been increasing production (September +920,000 barrels/day, led by Saudi Arabia), Strait of Hormuz exports have resumed
- Trump also claimed "oil prices are coming down" the day before the midterm elections
Triangular verification confirms: oil price -6.78% while gold +0.87% and silver +1.01% rose against the trend → This is textbook "supply recovery" characteristic, not a recession-driven demand collapse (during recession, gold and silver would both be sold off).
Final directional judgment (for BTC):
🟢 Medium Term
• Conclusion: Positive — oil price drop → inflation cooling → rising rate cut expectations → liquidity easing, hitting BTC's soft spot
🔴 Short Term
• Conclusion: Still under pressure — gold-silver ratio at 79.3 approaching warning line, silver down 18.9% over 20 days exposing recession concerns, risk aversion persists
In short: the "war tax" on oil prices has retreated, but the "recession tax" remains. Rate cut expectations are the medium-term tailwind, but sentiment has not yet turned short term.
Key levels: WTI holding $95 (0.5 Fibonacci) counts as a healthy pullback; break below looks at $91.4. BTC correlation depends on whether it can leverage "rate cut expectations" to reclaim the $80k value zone. Senate: Republicans hold a slight advantage, Democrats face a tough uphill battle
The Senate race is much tighter. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to control the Senate, but many of the seats up for election this year are in states traditionally favored by Republicans, creating significant defensive pressure.
· Key obstacle: Democrats not only need to hold their seats in swing states like Michigan but also must flip at least 4 seats from Republicans. Although states like Texas and Kansas are competitive, historical data shows it is extremely difficult to flip deep red states (for example, Democrats have not won a Senate election in Kansas since 1932).
· Forecast divergence: While some models (such as DDHQ) give Democrats about a 60% chance of reclaiming the Senate, Goldman Sachs and some market surveys show the probability close to even (around 49%), and the Cook Political Report only states the race is "more competitive" without listing it as a sure Democratic win.
Conclusion: Unless there is a huge polling error on election day or a "blue wave" sweeps red states, the most realistic outcome for Democrats is to take the House but narrowly lose the Senate.The NEAR proposal to reduce inflation has passed. The House of Stake approved HSP-029, cutting the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% down to 1.6%. This is real; the official announcement has already been released. Let's look at the specific data. The cap is lowered to 1.6%, but the distribution ratio remains unchanged: 90% to stakers and 10% to the treasury. The key point is the pace; it won't immediately drop to 1.6%, but will be stretched over a 24-month period. The process is as follows: first, the Security Council reviews the voting results; after approval, there is roughly a 90-day grace period, then validators adopt the protocol upgrade, and each epoch gradually decreases the rate. Only at the 24th month will it officially settle at 1.6%. The official announcement also clearly states that the rules won't change immediately tonight. This operation aims to lower long-term inflation expectations and slow down the rate of new supply. The gradual rate cut over two years is mainly to give the market an adjustment period, avoiding a sudden sharp drop in staking yields that could cause short-term shocks to the validator ecosystem. 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4137777 Next, we need to watch whether the Security Council's review goes smoothly, the progress of validator upgrades, and the official quarterly reports to see if the actual issuance is truly following the schedule. No decline yet Circle Q3 Earnings Preview: $CRCL Miss
Expectations
EPS $0.37 (Zacks $0.40) 0.18
Revenue about $788 million 701 million
OKX Prophet's threshold is GAAP EPS > 0.37
Positives
EPS has beaten expectations for 4 consecutive quarters
USDC circulation at quarter-end was 74.58 billion, slightly up from 73.3 billion at the end of June
Short-term US Treasury yields rebound, supporting reserve interest income
The prediction market gives a 73% probability of beating expectations
Risks
Core issue: Q3 average USDC supply down about 4%, USDC alone can only support about $720 million in revenue. The remaining gap depends on how much of the $242 million ARC presale is recognized this quarter
Channel fees consume nearly 60% of revenue
Revenue missed expectations in the first two quarters
Binance hack dragged down crypto stocks, Circle froze about 800 million USDC; Mizuho downgraded target price, stock fell 9.3% in one day last Friday to $72.54
My judgment
Beat expectations? Slightly leaning No. If ARC is fully recognized, it could significantly beat; otherwise, hard to reach 0.37
Stock price rise? Even if ARC drives a beat, the market may see it as one-time income. More critical are the outlooks for USDC supply and channel costs Just saw "Yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $398.62 million," my first reaction was: Is the money collectively withdrawing again? But reading further, according to Trader T data, BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of $405.3 million, its largest single-day outflow since June 26; Fidelity FBTC, on the other hand, had a net inflow of $6.68 million, partially offsetting the outflow.
My understanding is that this reflects a somewhat negative short-term fund sentiment, but directly saying "institutions are unanimously bearish" is a bit of a leap, not sure if that's correct. The overall net outflow is mainly concentrated in IBIT, while FBTC is moving in the opposite direction; at least this data does not show all products withdrawing simultaneously.
Another reason is that net outflow can show the result of fund inflows and outflows on that day, but it doesn't tell me why holders withdrew. If it's just portfolio adjustment, then it has a different implication than a continuous reduction of Bitcoin exposure. This is just my speculation; one should not take any single explanation as fact, nor directly convert it into how much the price will drop next.
I've only been in the circle for a year, and I still haven't figured out: when does an abnormal outflow from a single large product become sustained pressure across the entire ETF channel 🤔. I will continue to watch whether the subsequent net outflows persist and spread to more products, and first remind myself not to read one day's data as a long-term conclusion.Today is the US midterm election voting day. The price of crypto actually reflects three Washington issues that seem unrelated to crypto: AI capital expenditure, fiscal deficit, and the debt ceiling.
Three outcomes, three paths. If the Democrats fully control Congress, the AI industry will be more tightly regulated; if Congress is split, budget disputes and debt ceiling negotiations will be deadlocked; if the Republicans control both chambers, tax cuts, increased defense spending, and deregulation will continue, at the cost of heavier fiscal deficits and debt pressure.
All three paths ultimately funnel into the crypto space through one channel: US dollar liquidity. AI capital expenditure supports US stock valuations, which in turn support risk appetite, and $BTC now moves in sync with the Nasdaq; the deficit and debt ceiling determine how Treasury bonds are issued and where long-term interest rates go, which then determine the strength of the dollar, and high beta assets like $ETH amplify these effects.
My judgment is a bit cautious. A Republican win in both chambers is the smoothest short-term scenario, but the smoothness is in risk appetite, not fundamentals; full Democratic control is the hardest on the AI sector, but this pain might actually push some funds toward non-sovereign asset narratives; the hardest to navigate is a split Congress, where deadlock means no conclusion, and risk assets will just oscillate, causing directional money to withdraw first.
One detail worth watching: among the key variables mentioned, the debt ceiling points to 2027. This means the direction set tonight could have a pricing window extending beyond next year. The answers given on election night may not hold up beyond a quarter.Tomorrow is the U.S. midterm election, and on Friday there's also the nonfarm payroll report. The market has no shortage of major events this week 📅
Someone has calculated that after the past four midterm elections, BTC has on average dropped between 27% and 72%; currently, BTC is stuck around 78,000, and the market still bets 70-80% on a 0.25% rate hike in December.
For uncertain events like elections, would you reduce your position in advance and wait and see?
#MidtermElection #Nonfarm #Outlook
Not investment advice 💥 Withdrawal outflow of 3.6 billion! The aftermath of the black swan event continues, order book depth halved
$BTC $ETH $SOL
After Binance withdrawals resumed, a net outflow of 3.64 billion USDT
Official compensation covers 95% of damaged assets
Market makers hedge by canceling orders, order book depth directly cut in half
Spot buy orders gap, price firmly suppressed at 77800
BTC｜77800 hanging by a thread
Previous reference 81500
Compensation eases panic, but 78500 has become strong resistance
Support extremely fragile
If it can't recover 78200 by afternoon close
With insufficient liquidity, beware of testing the 75500 defense line
ETH｜Retesting 2260 in weak consolidation
Previous reference 2450
Double pressure from security incident and institutional withdrawals
Lack of large spot capital support
Breaking below 2200 may accelerate drop to 2100
SOL｜Lost the 100 mark, tugging near 94
Previous reference 105
Market deleveraging drags down, breaking below 100
On-chain ecosystem weakening simultaneously
Support depth declining, chips loosening, rebound likely to retreat easily
Summary
Compensation for the incident implemented, but tens of billions of funds exiting severely hit the order book
BTC stuck at low levels, altcoins support even worse
Price and capital still searching for bottom
Do you think the 77800 level can hold this afternoon?
Market observation only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH rebounding to MA7 is a clear shorting opportunity, $SOL at 91.56 can't even hold 92, what are you still waiting for?
ETH bounced from 2246 to MA7 at 2253, this is an obvious shorting point, don't hesitate. The current price 2246.84 is just seven points away from the 7-day moving average, RSI is only 32.2, Bollinger lower band at 2234 is holding, the rebound strength is as weak as if it hasn't eaten. BTC is the same, 76564 is about 300 points below MA7, the whole market is in a slow downtrend, and SOL can't even hold 92, 91.55 is still some distance from MA7 at 92.03, RSI 31.8, very weak.
From a technical perspective, all three coins are hugging the Bollinger lower band: ETH at 2234, SOL at 90.72, BTC at 76307. If these levels break, it will accelerate the decline. Funding rate is still positive at 0.01%, indicating bulls are still holding on hard, and this is when the market is most prone to stop hunting longs. Personally, I think the rebound is just an opportunity to enter short positions. Short ETH directly near 2253, and SOL's rebound around 92 is also a shorting point, don't try to guess the bottom.
For operations, set stop loss just above MA25: ETH at 2268, SOL at 93, if broken, accept the loss. Below, watch the Bollinger lower band first, if it breaks, chase the drop. Don't talk to me about bottom fishing in this market, RSI is only 31, not yet extremely oversold, weak rebound is the best signal, just hold your short positions and that's it.$BTC 76646 funding rate is still positive, $ETH 2250 bulls haven't given up yet, $ZEC 1131 already dumped, I'm bearish
Bitcoin is currently at 76646, down 2% in 24 hours, with a high of 78398 and a low already smashed to 76386. I glanced at the RSI which is only 32.4, hugging the oversold line but not completely flat yet, MA7 and MA25 are both pressing above the price, and the lower Bollinger band at 76322 is right underfoot — frankly, this position is the lifeline between bulls and bears; if it breaks, we directly look at 75000. Let me tell you, what I care about most is not the price, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.0100%, bulls are still paying to hold their positions, which means they haven't given up. If they haven't given up, there's still room to fall, so don't rush to bottom fish.
Ethereum at 2250 is also quite delicate, RSI 35.3 is slightly stronger than Bitcoin, but MA7 and MA25 are both turning downwards, and the lower Bollinger band at 2235 is the last waistband; losing it means acceleration. But honestly, ETH bulls can endure more than BTC bulls; the funding rate is still positive, indicating leveraged longs are still stacked and haven't been fully liquidated. My personal view is straightforward: now is not the time to bottom fish, wait until they surrender; the day the funding rate turns negative is the signal for me to consider acting.
The worst is ZEC, 1131 down directly -10.8%, RSI dropped to 20.7, it's completely dumped, bulls have already laid down playing dead. But look, its funding rate is still positive, meaning someone is still holding hard. I won't touch this coin for now, waiting for it to truly clear out."'Verified institutions and retail investors,' what I care most about is this participation boundary. Canton plans to launch tokenized common shares, supporting all-weather trading and atomic settlement, but I think that being able to open the market doesn't equal good liquidity; the liquidity after admission is the key.🤖
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set one rule: if after opening trading, the slippage for orders of the same amount remains consistently high, then 'all-weather' should not get extra credit. My guess is that if the identity threshold limits the scale of participation, then the AMM may not attract enough capital, and extending trading hours might just prolong the period of a thin order book.
The advantage of this rule is that it looks at actual transaction costs without chasing concepts; the loophole is that testing only small orders might underestimate the impact of large orders, and only observing the initial launch period might lead to misjudgment. As a quantitative newbie, I still need to supplement the observation window. How would everyone write this condition: what order size to use to test slippage, and how long should continuous observation last to be valid?"The short position strategy given in the early session has hit the first target as expected.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the composure to stay calm during trading. The opening surge was weak, volume diverged, and the structural need for a pullback had long been apparent. Going short in line with the trend is simply following the market rhythm.
"Those who observe the situation are clear-sighted; those who follow the trend are wise." Trading is essentially a practice of cultivation, not about short-term gains or losses, but about long-term refinement. The rest is left to time. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Will $SUI fund migration become a new demand for SUI or just a short-term parking? Reassessment of cross-chain risks may lead funds to try migrating to other networks, but short-term parking does not constitute ecosystem growth. The logic holds only if SUI's stablecoins, application transactions, and developer activities rise simultaneously. The opposing view is that bridging itself carries risks and migrated funds can be quickly withdrawn; if retention is poor and subsidy dependence is high, I would lower expectations. Compare application participation and fee changes one week after fund inflow to avoid mistaking a one-time migration flow for long-term adoption. For further confirmation, I will separate the impact of news, fund flows, and actual usage for examination; only if at least two of these remain aligned across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term judgment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, maintain caution and wait for subsequent data.+62.9%, this single-day increase is indeed eye-catching, but I prefer to separate “busy matching business” VS “coin holders are bullish.” DefiLlama data shows that DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours was about $8.714 billion, up 4.1% from a week ago, with the top three volumes from Uniswap V4, V3, and Curve.
I lean toward the former: this is a positive signal for DEX usage demand, but not yet evidence of price direction. Trading volume counts transactions; speculative entries contribute volume, and position swaps or exits also contribute volume, so you can’t attribute all the busyness to bullish momentum. My guess is, if the new volume generates more fees, then the platform business might benefit more directly than the coin holders.
So I would categorize this as “on-chain trading demand heating up,” rather than a “broad price rally forecast.” Seeing this volume surge, do you agree more that DEX business benefits, or do you value its bullish implication for coin prices more? Which side do you choose, and why? $BTC fell 1.57%, yet its funding rate is 2.4 times that of ETH! Are the bulls still holding on?
The weaker the market, the more some data become worth watching.
As of the morning of November 3 Beijing time, in the OKX perpetual market, BTC dropped 1.57% in the past 24 hours, $ETH fell 1.26%, and $SOL dropped 2.82%. All three brothers are in the red; none managed to stay unscathed.
But the most abnormal thing is not the drop, but the funding rate!
BTC's third-party 8-hour normalized funding rate reached +0.0240%, while ETH and SOL are only +0.0100%. BTC fell more than ETH, yet its funding rate is 2.4 times higher!
Looking at open interest, BTC currently has about $3.7 billion USD OI, ETH about $1.82 billion, and SOL about $381 million. The actual forced liquidations in 24 hours are approximately $3.84 million, $5.04 million, and $1.6 million respectively.
BTC has the largest position and highest funding rate; ETH is relatively more resilient but bears a larger forced liquidation amount; SOL has the largest drop and remains part of the weak trend.
My judgment: overall bearish, not chasing longs for now. Positive funding rates do not necessarily prove that bulls are crowded, but when prices weaken, a higher positive funding rate is worth caution.
If BTC price strengthens again, and coin-margined OI improves in sync with active buying, this judgment will need to be revised.
For those bullish on BTC, take the next cycle of the same data to refute me: can you prove that this higher funding rate results in sustained buying rather than leverage pressure?#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 Midterm election window, BTC bottoming cycle continues to compress
Looking back at the market after three midterm elections, the bottom intervals were 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively, showing an accelerating rhythm of bottom formation. After each low point started, there was a multiple-fold rally, and the volatility release window is shortening.
Volatility is the leading signal of this historical pattern; after the intense volatility during the panic phase converges, a re-pricing of chips will follow.
Open the position list, check the stop-loss of BTC contracts, and confirm the volatility range you can bear.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Calculating it, missing one asset migration step does not equal saving all access costs. This was my first reaction after reading: I care more about how many existing processes institutions need to change, rather than how advanced "interoperability" sounds.
① Consensys has launched an Ethereum-based sovereign network interoperability solution that supports cross-ledger settlement of securities, currency exchange, and collateral issuance. Assets remain on their native ledgers without needing cross-chain or transfer to a shared ledger. I think the key point is that business collaboration can be discussed without first moving assets together; if it can reduce the transformation of existing systems, then the resistance to adoption by institutions might be lower, which is my speculation.
② Transactions are only visible to relevant parties; the material does not disclose throughput or settlement time. The privacy boundary is clear and meaningful for institutional business, but I would not directly equate "interoperable" with "more efficient."
③ Cross-ledger execution is cryptographically verified by zero-knowledge proofs without requiring additional trusted intermediaries, and the material also does not provide cost data. Less reliance on intermediaries is an architectural change, but whether it saves money still needs to factor in access and operational expenses.
My judgment is that this carries more weight for institutions that need to retain their own ledgers, with limited direct impact on ordinary users for now. I would record it as a valuable infrastructure advancement, waiting for actual usage scale and cost accounting, rather than rushing to convert it into a market bullish factor.#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Crcl is actually clear income, US Treasury yield * USDC amount, profit can also be calculated, most of the costs are channel fees $ZEC plunged about 10% in a single day, while XMR showed relative resilience; the key is not that "privacy coins should move in sync."
ZEC previously surged rapidly due to expectations of quantum resistance and protocol upgrades, with profit-taking combined with concentrated contract leverage, making it prone to long position liquidations and a cascade during pullbacks; the market also worries about privacy narrative dilution, project execution, and regulatory pressure, which amplifies selling pressure.
XMR acts more like a consensus anchor in the privacy sector: its default privacy, decentralization, and censorship resistance attributes are purer. After being delisted from exchanges, its tokens are held more by long-term holders, with short-term speculative leverage relatively restrained.
This divergence indicates: sector sentiment can only provide a floor; what truly determines price movement are prior gains, leverage levels, and fundamental certainty. ZEC behaves more like a high-volatility sentiment token, while XMR is more like a defensive privacy asset; the divergence may continue but does not mean the overall privacy sector logic is invalid. The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The U.S. midterm elections have entered voting day, and the Middle East situation is fluctuating again, putting global assets in a highly sensitive window. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The U.S. stock market is not falling uniformly but showing clear divergence. Last night, the Nasdaq fell 1.07%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.51%, while only the Dow Jones rose 0.41%. Funds continue to withdraw from semiconductors, software, and AI infrastructure, moving towards consumer and industrial sectors. The market is starting to recalculate AI capital expenditures: the more invested, the harder it is to justify profit returns and financing pressure. On the oil price front, Iran proposed a "two-day plan," and the Supreme Leader authorized the government to advance negotiations, immediately triggering market expectations of easing, with Brent crude oil briefly dropping over 7%. However, Iran later stated that indirect communications have not yet made substantive breakthroughs. So do not misread this as a peaceful resolution; it only means negotiations have not collapsed, but an agreement is still far off. Oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk appetite could be pulled again by Middle East news at any time, causing fluctuations in U.S. stocks and the crypto market. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen back to around 4.9%, indicating that the drop in oil prices has eased inflation pressure, and funds are also moving into the bond market. But the rise in bonds and the fall in oil prices have not stopped the tech stock adjustment, indicating this round is not a simple macro easing logic but a reordering of capital. Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase from "Neutral" to "Underweight," cutting the target price from $258 directly to $120. The reason is straightforward: weakening crypto trading activity, slower profit recovery, plus industry uncertainty caused by the Binance security incident. If the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, the crypto industry could still... Seeing the headline "Ethereum ETF net outflow of 140 million," many people's first reaction is that it's over, institutions are running away.
I checked the details, and I can't cry or laugh: out of the 140 million, 138 million was from just BlackRock.
So rather than saying "institutions are withdrawing," it's more accurate to say "BlackRock is withdrawing." One firm's portfolio adjustment and the entire industry's exit are completely different matters.
What's more interesting is Morgan Stanley's side, where MSSE had a net inflow of 3.15 million USD yesterday. On one hand, 138 million is leaving, on the other, 3.15 million is coming in, like a vendor clearing stock at a market stall while the neighboring stall just opened.
$ETH is currently in this state; the numbers look scary, but when broken down, they're not that frightening, though it's hard to say it's good either.I advise everyone to buy spot, go long with low leverage, and use grid trading; this is sincere advice.
But sincerity is like underwear—everyone wears it, but no one knows if the other person is wearing it. However, if I wear it on my head, you can see at first glance that I am sincere.
But wearing underwear on your head just makes people think you're crazy, and sincerity is the same.
The U.S. midterm elections are voting today. Looking back at previous times, the market dropped before and after each election, and there were other events behind those drops.
In 2014, the impact of Mt. Gox's bankruptcy was still ongoing, and later Bitstamp was hacked. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 71 days later dropped about 46%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 24%.
In 2018, it was already a bear market, and then there was the BCH hard fork and the hash power dispute. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 39 days later dropped about 50%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 45%.
In 2022, on election day, FTX suspended withdrawals and later filed for bankruptcy. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 13 days later dropped about 15%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 92%.
So what about this time?
If we take [76700] as an example, assuming another 15% drop, it would roughly reach around [65200].
But note, 76700 is just an example price now, not the confirmed closing price on election day. Also, the background of each previous drop was different; history can only be used as a reference and does not guarantee a 15% drop this time.
The background event this time is that Binance exchange was attacked. After the attack, Binance has already started phased withdrawal restorations. But whether other exchanges will be attacked later and what kind of black swan events might occur, no one can guarantee.
From the market perspective, I think the ultimate target of this drop might be around [72k]. But there is no need to be too pessimistic; 75k and 72k are both levels where I consider adding to spot positions.
In my view, this might really be the last chance to buy spot in these four years.
The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading ideas record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation.U.S. retail investors have really gone wild! Leveraged ETF inflows have surged to nearly a two-year high. Is the U.S. stock market bottoming out, or is the bigger crash just beginning?
Look at that orange line on the chart.
Over the past two years, rolling capital flows in U.S. leveraged ETFs have oscillated between negative $12 billion and positive $8 billion, but suddenly in October, they shot above $15 billion.
This is no ordinary bottom-fishing.
The craziest is the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL, which saw a net inflow of about $7.3 billion in October, setting a single-month record. Many funds rushed in during the relatively high levels of early to mid-October.
Retail investors buy more as prices fall, and some even find regular ETFs too slow to rise, going straight for triple leverage.
Leveraged ETFs have a daily reset mechanism, making them suitable for short-term trading. In the face of continuous declines or high volatility, the long-term holding losses can be more severe than expected.
What's more troublesome is that funds are now highly concentrated in tech stocks and semiconductors. If the market continues to pull back, the volatility of leveraged products will be further amplified, and retail investors' stop-losses and redemptions could intensify market pressure.
Adding to this is the policy uncertainty brought by the U.S. midterm elections, making the recent U.S. stock market movements somewhat confusing.
Tech giants like Intel and Google have undergone sharp adjustments, and previously hot assets that were chased after have now become the hardest hit by capital outflows.
Do you think this leveraged capital frenzy is the last drop before the U.S. stock market bottoms out, or the start of a new round of declines? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $HYPE HYPE's recent buyback somewhat seems like paving an exit route for the whales.
The project team spent $67 million on buybacks in a single month, yet the token price still dropped 22%. The a16z-related address also transferred 118,000 HYPE tokens to a market maker address.
The official side is buying, but the whales are moving out. The buy orders might handle the buyback, but may not withstand the upcoming unlocks. I currently see no reason for a reversal in this market.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $140 million yesterday. It sounds like the whole market is pulling out, but breaking it down, $138 million of that $140 million came from the same source—BlackRock's ETHA.
This doesn't look like a market turning bearish, but more like the action of a single institution. ETHA's historical total net inflow is $11.731 billion, and a $138 million outflow in one day is just a little over one percent of its cumulative size. This scale is more like portfolio rebalancing or redemption, not a full exit.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's MSSE had a single-day net inflow of $3.1511 million, with a historical total net inflow of $48.2405 million. The numbers are small and the directions opposite: old players are reducing, new players are testing the waters; $3.15 million versus $138 million, it can't offset.
Mechanically, it's important to distinguish: ETF net outflow is based on subscription and redemption data, which does not equal the spot market selling the same amount. Real selling pressure is seen in secondary market trading volume and premium/discount; looking only at outflow numbers can easily misinterpret redemptions as panic selling.
So $ETH is currently in a turnover phase, not a crash. BlackRock withdrawing one percent in a day could be rebalancing or client redemptions; the data alone can't tell.
What’s worth watching is the next two to three days: continuous outflows from ETHA would indicate a trend, a single day is just a technical adjustment. $BTC ETF flows can be used as a comparison—if only ETH is withdrawn and not BTC, that’s a product choice, not a bearish view on the entire market.Tuesday, 2026.11.03
U.S. stocks continue to decline, with the weekly chart already showing the fourth consecutive bearish candle. This situation is relatively rare in historical terms. The current Federal Reserve policy expectations and the AI bubble have indeed brought significant shocks to the market.
After the 2018 midterm elections, U.S. stocks experienced a decline. The Fed raised interest rates four times that year, and the S&P 500 fell 6.2% for the year, but it still rose 11.7% one year after the election. Due to the bursting of the internet bubble, the S&P 500 dropped 22.1% one year after the 2000 election.
On October 30, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 398 million, and Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 139.7 million.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin followed the U.S. stock market down last night. Contrary to yesterday’s expectation of a rebound, the U.S. stock market opened high but then declined, forming a large N-shaped pattern. Bitcoin mirrored this pattern, with its rebound failing to break through 79,000. This actually indicates that the market is now completely controlled by the bears. During this period, the strategy should be to sell on rallies or short the market. Wait for the price to drop near 75,000 before preparing to bottom-fish.
There may be short-term negative factors around the U.S. midterm elections, but based on the above situation, it is very likely that the period around the election will be a golden opportunity to start bottom-fishing. The index probably has about 3-5% more downside before reaching weekly support levels, which is a good opportunity.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 33 (Fear) $SOPH market makers took advantage of the negative news about chain closure to push the price down, conveniently scooping up all the retail investors' bloodied chips.
After dropping more than 60%, a huge green bar suddenly appeared at the bottom, clearly signaling the end of accumulation.
Now the spot market is desperately pulling up, while the futures market has negative funding rates.
Short sellers are paying interest daily and still holding on hard. At this point, if the spot market pushes up again, the shorts will be forced into a chain of liquidations as fuel.
No surprises here, the shakeout is complete, and the main force is cleaning up thoroughly to trigger a short squeeze.
#SOPH
$SOPH
👇Having been in business for a long time, whenever I hear "record high transaction volume," I always want to ask: how is the input-output ratio of this business? Solana disclosed that in October, the stablecoin card spending on its network reached $141 million, a record high and seven times that of the same period last year.
My judgment is that this is a positive signal for payment applications, but it is still a bit short of proving that the business model is profitable. The scale of spending shows that this payment method is being used, but transaction volume does not equal revenue. Without data on customer acquisition and settlement costs, it's impossible to calculate the input-output ratio. If growth depends on subsidies, then the cash flow after removing subsidies is the real test. This is my speculation, not information that has been disclosed.
In business, I keep a risk reserve and do not treat all on-paper transaction volume as liquid cash. For business friends, if your store accepts payments via this kind of stablecoin card, what settlement guarantees would you require to be willing to bear the turnover risk? 📊 INSIGHT: Bitcoin’s last three cycle bottoms occurred 13–71 days after U.S. midterm elections.
🇺🇸 With the next midterms on November 3, 2026, late 2026 to early 2027 could be a key window to watch for BTC’s next bottom.
History shows a pattern, not a guarantee.
$BTC $XAU Oil prices dropped about 7% in one day, yet someone actually increased their long oil positions to about $147 million 😂
As soon as the news about the Iran nuclear talks came out, Brent crude fell sharply from its high, dropping about 7.6% that day, with WTI falling similarly. During this bearish candle, an on-chain address kept adding positions. Brent longs rolled up to about 868,840 contracts, nominally around $91 million. WTI was about 580,960 contracts, nominally around $56.1 million. Both sides were fully leveraged 10x, totaling nominally about $147 million.
At that time, the unrealized loss was already about $955,000, and the trader hadn’t exited yet. Brent’s average price was around 105, with liquidation around 86.85. WTI’s average price was about 98, with liquidation around 69.67. The margin was roughly in the $10+ million range. If oil prices kept dropping further, it would be easy for the entire position to be liquidated.
While others were unloading risk premiums, this person was betting the premium would come back. This kind of position just makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Recently, the short positions on $ZEC really paid off! A few days ago, I was watching 1400 but it couldn't break through, so I felt it was more comfortable to look for shorts on the rebound. Last night, I caught another wave! But today, it couldn't even hold 1200, dropping directly to around 1120 at the lowest. I thought there would be a rebound, but it hit the take profit point early this morning! Now I feel that the positive news for NU7 has already been largely priced in by funds in advance, and the market sentiment is off. The crypto panic index has dropped to 26, and the black swan event hasn't been fully digested yet. Overnight, US chip stocks were hit again, and ZEC itself has sparked controversy over community development funding. The positive news hasn't disappeared, but the market is clearly re-evaluating the previous surge expectations! Previously, 1400 was repeatedly tested but failed, and now the 1200 support has also been broken. The 4-hour moving average is pressing down again, showing short-term weakness. My current judgment is still bearish, and it may continue to probe lower. For the next rebound, watch the resistance at 1160, 1190—1216. If it can't reclaim these levels, I will continue to view it as weak. Only if it breaks and holds above 1216 with real volume will the short bearish view need to be adjusted!