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Non-farm payrolls exploded, but the crypto market took a hard hit
Tonight's October non-farm payrolls: 165,000 new jobs added, expected only 65,000, surpassing all Wall Street forecasts; unemployment rate fell to 4.1%; average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year and are still accelerating. Employment, unemployment rate, and wages all heating up.
【Bullish or Bearish? Depends on the audience】
For US stocks, it's sweet: strong economy = soft landing, tech stocks violently rebound, SOX up 6%, AMD and SanDisk up 13%, Nvidia recovered 311.8 billion in market value overnight.
For crypto, it's a knife: strong economy = Fed dares to raise rates. Probability of a rate hike in December jumped from 67% to 77%, with some institutions saying "the only question is whether it's a 25 or 50 basis point hike." The dollar surged to 102, gold plunged $30, BTC dropped 5% to 75,700 — 238,000 liquidations in 24 hours, $1.25 billion evaporated, 90% of which were long positions.
【Same data, two destinies】
US stocks trade on "strong economy = earnings supported," crypto suffers from "strong economy = liquidity tightening." Crypto is at the end of the risk asset chain; when rate hike expectations rise, it’s the first to be sold. The logic of "good data = bad news" is most purely reflected in crypto.
【One flaw】
Part-time employment surged by 339,000 — more people can't find full-time jobs and are forced to take gig work, so this "strength" has some fluff. But the Fed focuses on inflation, not structural issues.
Did you dodge this wave?
#NonFarmPayrolls #BTC #FedRateHike #USStocks $BTC $CORE 🚨 Official tweet summary of the b14g incident:
In-depth review of the b14g theft: How were 97.05M CORE lost?
This was not due to private key leakage, nor was the contract hacked or modified. Instead, after the Core native staking contract was upgraded, b14g failed to adapt in time.
The attacker exploited the "withdraw 0 CORE" parameter vulnerability, emptying 91 staking orders in a single transaction, resulting in a loss of approximately 97.05 million CORE.
Currently, about 68.146 million CORE have been recovered through a hard fork, accounting for approximately 70.2% of the stolen amount; the remaining portion will be gradually repaid through exchange asset freezes and b14g's future income.
This incident exposed not only smart contract vulnerabilities but also issues with BTCFi third-party protocol security audits, upgrade coordination, and emergency response.
Recovering assets is only the first step; fulfilling compensation and rebuilding trust are the real challenges.
For BTCFi to mature, it must have not only returns but also security and responsibility.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR.SK Hynix bounced back from 810, and ZEC didn't just lie flat
$SKHYNIX Hynix contract quoted at 861.59 USDT, down 10.5% in the past 24 hours. After rebounding from 810, it once touched around 899, then retreated. The rebound was significant, but the gains were discounted; it looks more like a re-quote after a sharp drop, still some way to go to fully reverse the decline.
$ZEC quoted at 1284.14 USDT, down 3.1% in the past 24 hours. The hourly trend once pushed up to around 1333 in one go, then continuously retreated. The issue is not a lack of resilience, but that after a quick bounce it couldn't hold; looking only at the 24-hour decline might miss this intense tug-of-war.
TAO quoted at 218.8 USDT, down 7.9% in the past 24 hours. After rebounding from around 212.1, the price fluctuated around 220. Compared to a continuous drop, at least there was a breather; but the rebound height is limited, and the price has yet to sustain moving away from this area.
JUP quoted at 0.2449 USDT, down 7.8% in the past 24 hours. Its rebound high gradually rose to 0.2483, then pulled back. This process is more meaningful than just moving sideways; the next step needs to be less retreat, rather than another instant spike.
$FET quoted at 0.1466 USDT, down 10.7% in the past 24 hours. After a low-level rebound to around 0.147, it slowed down, and the 24-hour decline remains large. All five assets have rebounded, but the strength and retention vary; the ranking by decline is not a complete list of rebound quality.#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元
November 6, 2026
$BTC Long position entry area reached the left-side snatch order entry.No supertall building will tell you on its topping-out day whether it will collapse. The real inspection only happens during the first earthquake—only then are the steel reinforcements hidden in the floor slabs truly counted.
So when I see the phrase "real experience, not theory," my first reaction is: the shear formulas in textbooks and the vibrating poker dulled by sand and gravel on the construction site have never been the same thing. Stop-loss is not a concept; it is a load-bearing wall. Which axis the wall falls on, how thick it is, and whether the reinforcement ratio is sufficient determine whether the building only sways slightly in the wind or becomes completely unstable. Position management is not mysticism either; it is structural redundancy—you decide how many secondary load-bearing components you reserve, which determines whether a single-point failure stops at a crack or leads to progressive collapse.
Too many people like to take sample sections as achievements: smooth surfaces, beautiful lines, and lighting effects that look like renderings. But sample sections do not bear loads. What really bears loads are the things not captured on camera—how deep the pile foundation is driven, how many days the concrete has cured, whether the stirrups at the joints are densified. A trader willing to openly discuss their maximum loss is equivalent to publicly sharing their structural crack inspection report; that is a construction log, not a marketing brochure.
Looking at market correlations of tokenized US stock assets like $xCRCL, I see it as a rigidly connected cross-system node: two structures with different stiffness and damping ratios are hard-connected. After regular trading hours, the chain continues to operate, turning that segment into a cantilever without lateral support—when wind load hits, the amplitude is amplified, and all stress is concentrated at the connection. The design must either reserve expansion joints, install dampers, or honestly admit it is only safe under certain load conditions. The so-called linkage is essentially a load transfer path issue; if the path is unclear, resonance is only a matter of time.
Therefore, what I want to read more are construction-level details: who found deviations at which elevation, what reinforcement scheme was used, and what the re-measured values were after reinforcement. A veteran craftsman's site notes are worth a hundred pages of renderings. Sample sections can be redone; pile foundations cannot.
Structures that have not experienced real crosswinds are not qualified to discuss wind resistance levels. #okxtradervoices$BTC BlackRock deposited another 1,883 coins to the exchange, worth $143 million
BlackRock deposited 1,883 BTC to Coinbase Prime through IBIT, valued at $143 million, equivalent to $75,942 per coin.
What do we make of this news? Here's the conclusion first: this is not good news, but don't be scared.
Why is it not good news? BlackRock depositing coins into Coinbase Prime is part of the ETF redemption process. Depositing means shares are being redeemed, which means someone is selling the ETF.🔥Does stronger non-farm payroll data necessarily mean the market will fall? Not necessarily! This time, the new jobs added significantly exceeded expectations, which indeed puts pressure on rate cut expectations, but the trading market is never simply about good news driving prices up and bad news driving prices down.
🇺🇸Strong employment means the U.S. economy still has resilience, but it may also mean the Federal Reserve is less eager to cut rates. If the dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC and ETH could face additional pressure.
📉For BTC, the key is whether critical support levels can hold. If it continues to fall with increasing volume, it indicates selling pressure has not yet been fully released; if after the bad news hits there is buying support, it could mean some pessimistic expectations have already been priced in.
⚡For ETH, focus on relative strength. If BTC rebounds but ETH lags, it shows funds remain cautious; if ETH starts to outperform BTC with increasing volume, there is more reason to expect a recovery rally.
🧭Tonight’s data has already provided answers; what remains to be seen is how funds choose to act. Don’t rush to chase longs, and don’t blindly short just because of strong non-farm payrolls. Do you think the market has already digested the bad news, or is the decline just beginning? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Solana Labs' Leap launches beta version of tokenized stock trading app.$BNB – LONG SIGNAL 🟢
Entry: 696.50 – 697.00
Target 1: 698.50
Target 2: 699.50
Target 3: 702.00
Stop Loss: 693.80
Bias: Bullish 📈
Confirmation: Price is holding above EMA5, EMA10 and EMA20.
Buy only if 697 resistance breaks and holds. If price falls below 693.80, exit.
1H chart analysis.
Use proper risk management; signal is not guaranteed.
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit Daily $XRP is coiling into a clean demand setup with buyers stepping in heavy near support.
Structure favors a swift upward bounce back toward major overhead liquidity.
Buy Zone
1.155 - 1.1835
EP
1.155 - 1.1835
TP
1.260
1.330
1.410
SL
1.130
Volume profile highlights steady accumulation clearing out local ask blocks. Defending this baseline sets up a clean path for rapid target execution.
Let's go $XRP
#OKXOrbitTopics . $XAUT/USDT Market Update
$XAUT rebounded from an old low of $3,872.4 before rallying to a powerful peak of $4,190.9, and trades at $4,038.6 after a -0.85% daily change and a +4.07% change over 7 days.
Short-Term: Watch support near $4,015.1 (24h low). Holding this level can spark a retest of $XAUT 4,112.6 (24h high).
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, $XAUT could target $4,300.00+. If support fails, it may pull back to $XAUT 3,900.00.
Will $XAUT break its peak or drop? Comment below! The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 12% in a single day. This is not just a cooldown; it's a strong convective storm directly breaking through the convective layer top of the chip sector, the most intense meteorological strike since March 2020!
On November 5, the S&P 500's pressure plummeted 4.36%, the Nasdaq recorded a sharp 5.52% drop, and three trillion dollars in market value evaporated like water vapor within 24 hours. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—the core weather station for chip stocks—collapsed by over 12%, marking the most severe single-day downburst since the epic storm in March 2020. This is not an isolated local thunderstorm; it is a large-scale frontal system sweeping across the entire market, with a pressure gradient as steep as that spring three years ago.
The storm formation mechanism is very clear: after the midterm elections, expectations of stricter regulation on AI data centers acted like a strong cold front moving from north to south. This combined with warm, moist airflows fueled by doubts about capital expenditure returns and overvalued high-tech stocks. These two completely different air masses collided violently over the chip sector, forming a textbook-level supercell convective system. Even more concerning is that institutional deleveraging and chain liquidations are playing the role of an urban heat island effect—the pressure gradient changes from passive selling have amplified what would have been a strong rainfall process into an extreme downpour, with the drop expanding from just over 10% to more than 12%. This positive feedback mechanism is like the downdraft in a storm: the stronger it gets, the more it reinforces itself, until the energy is exhausted or new dry cold air intrudes.
Bitcoin and other crypto assets fell in sync, indicating this is not a small-scale strong convection but a large-scale frontal precipitation sweeping across all risk assets. During the transition of warm, moist airflows from overvalued assets to safe-haven assets, all high-beta targets are experiencing synchronized precipitation. Bitcoin and Nasdaq at this moment are like two adjacent weather stations detecting the same cold front passing—there is no decoupling, only synchronized isobar compression. The stronger the suction effect of the warm, moist airflow, the more concentrated the precipitation; no asset can stay dry during this frontal passage.
The performance of tokenized US stocks during this weather event resembles a newly built automatic weather station: instruments are still in calibration, data resolution is insufficient, but under extreme weather, the liquidity bottleneck effect causes volatility to be more intense than at mature stations. The steeper the pressure gradient, the more extreme the wind speed in the bottleneck; this amplification is especially evident at new stations. Mature stations might record level 8 winds, while new stations could spike to level 12 or even higher.
From a meteorological perspective, a 12% single-day downburst can occur in any season; the key is whether there is sustained cold air replenishment afterward. Currently, the energy from institutional deleveraging has not been fully released, and the convective cloud cluster of volatility is still hovering overhead. The 700 hPa upward motion shows no obvious signs of weakening. Surface pressure continues to fall, isobars are tightening, and wind shear is strengthening. #chipstocksfallover12%🔥What really makes the market nervous is not the 165,000 new nonfarm jobs, but that it far exceeds the expected 65,000! The job market shows no obvious cooling, and the December rate hike expectations have also heated up. BTC will face significant macro pressure ahead.
📊There are two other key points in this report: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. Strong employment and resilient wages make it difficult for the Fed to pivot to easing based on just one data point in the short term.
🇺🇸The market's pricing for a December rate hike has risen from about 70% to 78%. This means investors are reassessing the future interest rate path. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to strengthen, risk assets may face further pressure.
🎯Previously, BTC was seen as a battleground around 76,000. If it breaks below and the rebound fails to recover, the market may look for support in the 73,000–74,000 range; if it regains key levels, one should not blindly short just because of strong nonfarm data. ETH has been weaker so far, and it remains to be seen if it can stop its relative weakness.
⚠️Tonight's data is already out; the next step is to see how the market trades rather than keep guessing the data. Do you think BTC can hold 76,000? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $xFLY XFLY/USDT IS UP 20.16%, SITTING EXACTLY AT ITS 24H HIGH OF 18.47. What stands out to me: this green daily candle carries the tallest volume bar in view. My takeaway: a one-day jump deserves patience, not chasing.
What would you need to see to trust this volume? Ethereum is suggested to wait and see tonight, as there are significant fluctuations in both bullish and bearish directions, but overall it is still bearish. From the order flow combined with the candlestick patterns, the probability of bears dominating is higher. I have been watching the market, and there is a possibility of a downward breakout, with the key range around 2170 to 2190.
If it directly breaks below 2150, then it might be worth considering reversing to go long. Try not to rush into opening positions tonight; it's not too late to act after these two levels are truly broken. Even if you enter the market, keep the position light, controlling it as a trial order. If the price continues to drop, there will be room to add more positions. This is my judgment on tonight's market. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $XRP is coiling into a clean demand setup with buyers stepping in heavy near support.
Structure favors a swift upward bounce back toward major overhead liquidity.
Buy Zone
1.155 - 1.1835
EP
1.155 - 1.1835
TP
1.260
1.330
1.410
SL
1.130
Volume profile highlights steady accumulation clearing out local ask blocks. Defending this baseline sets up a clean path for rapid target execution.
Let's go $XRP
#OKXOrbitTopics . $STX News: Bullish (NYSE:BLSH) has invested Bitcoin into Stacks' third bond issuance.
The bond issuance size is 1,000 BTC. Bullish, together with 21Shares, has fully utilized the issuance capacity.
The third round of bonds is completely sold out!
Bullish 🐂I have advised quite a few people before not to touch $CRCL, but very few listened, and now I'm too lazy to advise anymore.
First, look at the revenue structure. The essence of this business is constantly paying tolls to channels, with profits being siphoned off layer by layer, leaving very little for themselves.
Then look at the last quarter's financial report. On the surface, the revenue looks good, but breaking it down, out of 200 million in revenue, 190 million came from selling coins, so the main business is actually very weak.
The on-chain performance is even more disappointing; the experience and ecosystem are unimpressive.
Most importantly, many people seriously underestimate the team behind OUSD. Visa, BlackRock, Stripe, these reputable players are all in the alliance, with channels and compliance capabilities clearly established.
As for the so-called moat of USDC, others can also build channels; Wall Street institutions are even more legitimate, and it doesn't dare to touch the gray areas, so the barriers aren't that strong. $BTC $ETH btc
On the news front, after the significant sell-off of U.S. tech stocks on November 5, market risk appetite clearly cooled down. The rebound previously driven by the U.S. midterm elections was mostly given back, and the price fell back to around $76,000. This decline was not only influenced by the sharp correction in the Nasdaq index but also reflected the crypto market's own lack of buying power. On November 5, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $430.2 million in a single day, ending a brief period of capital inflow, indicating that institutional funds still tend to reduce risk exposure amid increased market volatility. Meanwhile, the total liquidation amount across the market in 24 hours exceeded $1.2 billion, with long liquidations accounting for about $1.12 billion. The concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs further amplified the decline.
On the other hand, the U.S. October nonfarm payroll data has been released, showing an increase of 165,000 jobs, significantly higher than the market expectation of 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. The stronger-than-expected employment data pushed the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields higher, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December also increased. Although the strong employment data reflects some resilience in the U.S. economy, for risk assets like BTC, it may mean that expectations for monetary policy easing will further weaken in the short term, and the liquidity environment is unlikely to improve quickly $BTC
35.72 million USD. The flash report shows that the BTC liquidation amount in the past hour is this figure, with total network liquidations exceeding 70 million USD.
But I don't take "breaking below 75,000" as the current price conclusion. OKX spot reports 75,713, 24-hour low at 74,887.9; perpetual lowest at 74,800.1, current price around 75,661. It did briefly dip below, but has now recovered; the headline and real-time market should be viewed separately.
Perpetual positions are about 2.667 billion USD, funding rate about 0.00425%, still positive. Liquidations can cause sharp price fluctuations, but that doesn't mean the bears have taken over; conversely, reclaiming 75,000 doesn't mean it's firmly held.
I prefer to wait for the next phase of volume and positions to give the answer; for now, let's record this as high leverage being flushed out.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $AKE I don't really trust this move. So what if it rose to the top of the list? Being number one only shows who was bought the most today; it doesn't mean the trend has changed. The price bounced only after hitting support, and this kind of rebound feels more like catching your breath after a punch, not a fresh start. So I took a light short position at this level, targeting 0.003. The position size is small because I also admit it might still spike a bit more in the short term.
The external environment isn't helping either: US stocks were just heavily sold off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experiencing its worst single-day drop since March 2020; tonight there's the non-farm payroll report, and the market is now betting on a rate hike in December; plus the US Congress transition and the uncertain situation with the US and Iran. In times like these, risk appetite contracts rather than expands.
$SNDK $TRUMP$SNDK
For this rebound of SanDisk, I’ll first consider it a recovery and won’t rush to call it a reversal.
Breaking news says after the US stock market opened, SNDK rose about 12%, AMD rose 13%. On OKX, the token is currently reported at 852, starting from 841 in 24 hours, with a low of 793.7 and a high of 914.2; it has pulled back quite a bit from the low point but is still some distance from the high. The data sources and trading sessions differ on both sides, so I won’t force a percentage alignment.
What’s more worth watching is whether volume can pick up again at the high level. Now, perpetual positions are about $111 million, funding rates are close to zero, and leverage hasn’t obviously rushed in chasing this rebound. The storage sector warming up together is the background, but it doesn’t mean this token has fully recovered the previous losses.
Let’s first see if it can solidly sustain the rebound; I won’t chase this sharp rise today.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC is coiling tightly around prime demand support as buyers establish dynamic defense.
Market structure signals a high-probability bullish reversal toward local highs.
Buy Zone
74,500 - 75,440.8
EP
74,500 - 75,440.8
TP
78,000
81,500
84,500
SL
73,200
Order flow shows heavy accumulation building along the lower range boundaries. Maintaining this support cluster fuels an explosive recovery push.
Let's go $BTC
#OKXOrbitTopics 🔥After the non-farm payrolls release, the easiest mistake to make is rushing to chase the direction! The data is clearly stronger than expected, and the market may reassess the pace of rate cuts, but how BTC and ETH ultimately move still depends on the reaction of real capital.
📉If the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen, risk assets may come under pressure, and BTC's short-term rebound will be limited; if the market has already priced in the negative impact of strong employment, there could instead be short covering and price recovery.
⚡ETH requires extra caution. Its volatility is often greater than BTC's, and when market sentiment weakens, it tends to fall faster; but if BTC stabilizes and capital flows back, ETH may also see a more pronounced rebound.
🎯My approach is to first see if BTC can hold key support, then watch if ETH shows synchronous recovery. Before confirmation, do not heavily bet on direction based on a single data point, and I especially do not recommend using high leverage to gamble on short-term fluctuations.
🛡️Data can only provide reference; price is the final answer. The most important thing in trading is not to guess right every time, but to control losses when wrong. Are you more inclined to stay out and wait now, or are you preparing to look for the next entry opportunity? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 🔥After the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, don't just focus on BTC's price movements; ETH's performance might be even more worth watching! Facing the same macro pressures, the reactions of these two assets could be completely different.
📊BTC, as the market barometer, will next focus on the US dollar and US Treasury yields. If strong employment pushes the market to lower rate cut expectations, capital may continue to shrink risk exposure, limiting BTC's rebound. But if the market has already priced in the negative news, a rebound repair is also possible.
⚡ETH's situation is relatively complex. It is influenced not only by Fed policy expectations but also by changes in its own market capital and risk appetite. When macro conditions are favorable, ETH may follow BTC's rebound; when macro pressure increases, ETH's volatility could be further amplified.
🎯 My observation focus is clear: whether BTC can stabilize first, and whether ETH can outperform BTC. If BTC stops falling but ETH remains weak, it indicates that confidence in ETH is still insufficient.
🛡️ Now is not the time to bet on direction based solely on data results; first watch how the price moves, then decide your position. Do you think in the next rebound, BTC will lead or ETH will catch up? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC dropped from 81200 to 74800, sweeping liquidity back and forth. The key is to watch the 12-hour candle close; if it holds above 75000, we could see a high around 82000. Pay close attention, current resistance is at 82000, support at 74000.
$ETH followed BTC's high-level pullback, dropping directly from around 2450 back to 2200. All I can say is the 🐶 market maker is really good at shaking things out. The more it shakes, the more it shows the main force is preparing for a rally. Even with the big negative from the non-farm payrolls, it didn’t drop much, showing insensitivity to bad news. If it holds, expect a short-term new high.
$SNDK is a CS thing, lost 1000u, really painful, can drop over 20% in a day, reshaping my understanding. Support at 800, resistance at 960, still in a downtrend. Only looking for an oversold rebound, can’t expect too much.
This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 🔥Nonfarm payroll data has been released, what’s next for BTC and ETH? What truly determines the market trend is not just how strong the data is, but how the market re-prices the Fed’s interest rate path!
□□This time, nonfarm payrolls clearly exceeded expectations, showing resilience in the job market and a decline in the unemployment rate. Market expectations for rate cuts may cool further. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields gain support as a result, risk assets will face short-term pressure.
📉For BTC, strong employment might cause capital to reassess the high interest rate environment, limiting rebound potential. But if the negative factors have already been priced in, the market might first drop then recover, so don’t blindly short based on a single data point.
⚡ETH’s volatility is usually more sensitive. If BTC stabilizes, ETH has a chance to follow with a recovery; if BTC continues to weaken, ETH may also face greater selling pressure.
🧭Next, focus on the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and whether BTC can sustain buying pressure. The data is out, but the real battle is just beginning. Do you think BTC and ETH will rebound first next week, or continue to test lows? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 I always thought exchanges made their living from transaction fees, but after reading these three financial reports, half of my understanding has been overturned.
Coinbase's trading revenue in Q3 dropped by 23%, and retail spot volume decreased by 9% quarter-over-quarter. By the old logic, this should be a disaster.
But elsewhere, things are still growing: the prediction market's daily active users increased by over 60% quarter-over-quarter, and the average USDC balance is $22 billion.
The most counterintuitive is Circle, where USDC trading volume rose 49% to 13.9 trillion, but reserve income fell 8% to only $658 million.
Volume went up, but the money didn't follow. Whose hands are those USDC actually moving through? The fees I pay are barely even a fraction.Three companies submitted their reports on the same day with identical conclusions: new business is growing, old business is shrinking.
Coinbase's Q3 trading revenue dropped 23% year-over-year to just $590 million, with retail spot volume down 9% quarter-over-quarter. Robinhood's crypto revenue also weakened in sync. This line is clear: retail spot trading has cooled off.
Another line: Circle's USDC trading volume rose 49% year-over-year to $13.9 trillion, with payment network annualized transaction volume at $41.3 billion; Coinbase platform's average USDC balance is $22 billion. The same group of users is trading less frequently but transferring more often.
The contradiction is here: Circle's reserve income fell 8% year-over-year to $658 million, with total revenue of $865 million including $182 million from token pre-sale income. Transaction volume rose nearly half, but reserve income declined.
The mechanism is not hard to understand. Reserve income depends on interest rates, not the number of transfers; trading income depends on volatility, not user count. Now one is receding, the other is suppressed by interest rates.
So Wall Street is also divided: Barclays cut $COIN's target price from 149 to 120, while Oppenheimer raised it to 207. On the same day, with the same earnings report, the difference is $87. The disagreement is not about the earnings but whether it should be valued as a brokerage or as a payment network.🔥A single nonfarm payroll report could change the market trading logic for the next month! New jobs added: 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%; wages rose 0.4% month-over-month. This is not an ordinary employment report but adds new reasons for the Fed's tightening stance.
🇺🇸Although the last Fed meeting kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, two officials supported a rate hike. After the nonfarm data release, the market's expectation for a December rate hike rose to about 78%, supporting the dollar, while U.S. Treasury yields initially rose then fluctuated.
📉Gold faces short-term pressure from real interest rates and the dollar; BTC and ETH must confront cooling risk appetite, and tech stocks need to reassess their high valuations. However, assets are not simply moving in sync; after the nonfarm release, some U.S. stock index futures have already rebounded.
🛢️If oil prices continue to fall, future inflation pressure may ease; but if wages and core prices remain strong, the Fed will find it difficult to easily pivot to easing.
🧭Key things to watch next: the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the next round of inflation data. Don’t just focus on the nonfarm numbers; pay attention to how the market reprices. Do you think a December rate hike will become a reality? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
This wave is not just about the crypto circle itself. The root cause lies in the US stock market: after the midterm elections, the Democrats control Congress, expectations for tighter AI regulation are rising, the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% in a single day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 12%. Risk assets were indiscriminately sold off, and the crypto market took a hit along with them.
BTC, as the anchor, was smashed from above 80,000 down to around 75,000, dropping about 6.4% in 24 hours, with ETF net outflows of $430 million in a single day, institutions are withdrawing. ETH fell even harder, dropping over 7% to around 2,200 — its high Beta characteristic always acts as an amplifier in risk-off environments, plus the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 75%, so non-yielding assets are cut first. SOL not only followed the decline but took an extra hit: Loopscale suspended operations due to security issues, validator upgrades remain uncertain, SOL ETF had a record net outflow of $71.47 million last week, a double blow to its ecosystem and capital.
What really amplified the decline was leverage. In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.26 billion, with long positions accounting for $1.116 billion, nearly 90%. The long positions were heavily trampled, reinforcing the downtrend.
In summary: macro triggered, leverage stampede, altcoins followed the fall. BTC is watching if 75,000 can hold, ETH at 2,200, SOL at 88. ETFs are still flowing out, nonfarm payrolls have not landed yet, I’m not taking the risk of catching the falling knife on the left side.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has recorded its biggest single-day decline since March 2020, highlighting the severity of the recent sell-off in the US stock market. Following the sharp decline in US equities, the cryptocurrency market also came under pressure. Bitcoin $BTC dropped from $80,408 to approximately $75,200 before finding temporary support. Currently trading around $76,112.8, $BTC has spent most of the day hovering slightly above the $75,200 support level on the 1-hour chart.$BTC/USDT Market Update
$BTC rebounded from an old low of $74,887.9 before rallying to a powerful peak of $84,899.6, and trades at $75,602.0 after a -0.63% daily change and a -2.20% change over 7 days.
Short-Term: Watch support near $74,887.9 (24h low). Holding this level can spark a retest of $77,011.2 (24h high).
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, $BTC could target $90,000.00+. If support fails, it may pull back to $72,000.00.
Will $BTC break its peak or drop? Comment below! 🔥Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, so why am I not rushing to be bearish? Because the market's biggest fear isn't strong data itself, but the rising rate hike expectations driven by strong data. However, when everyone starts trading the same negative factor, a reversal can happen at any time.
📊 October added 165,000 jobs, far surpassing the expected 65,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. This report shows the US labor market remains resilient, and the Fed has little reason for aggressive easing in the short term.
💵 After the nonfarm report, the dollar gained support, with December rate hike pricing rising to about 78%. Gold and crypto assets faced short-term pressure, and tech stocks need to reassess valuations under a high interest rate environment. However, the market did not simply fall across the board; Nasdaq and S&P futures even rebounded at one point.
🛢️ Another variable not to be ignored: oil prices falling. If energy prices continue to cool, future inflation pressure may ease, and the space for rate hikes may not expand indefinitely.
⚠️ So I don't think strong nonfarm data equals a confirmed bear market. Short-term risk management, mid-term focus on inflation and Fed statements. Do you think this is the end of the negative news, or the start of a new round of adjustments? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The non-farm payroll data is "too good," basically leaving no doubt about a rate hike in December. Now we just hope there won't be another rate hike in Q1 next year.
First, the non-farm employment numbers far exceeded expectations and previous values; second, the unemployment rate is also lower than expected and previous values; third, the labor force participation rate is higher than expected and previous values. With this employment situation, a rate hike will face no resistance.
On the other hand, both the annual and monthly wage growth rates exceeded expectations, with the monthly rate far surpassing expectations and previous values. A rate hike is necessary.
So this once again confirms Brother Feng's earlier conclusion: the market won't improve until at least Q1 next year. Specifically, it depends on the December dot plot; we cannot rule out another rate hike in Q1 next year. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC US midterm elections, weakening US stocks combined with consecutive negative non-farm payroll data, Bitcoin dipped to 74800 before stabilizing and rebounding, currently fluctuating around 75570.
Multiple negative factors have been realized, but the bears failed to push to new lows, with support appearing below. The order book shows heavy selling pressure above, and the rebound lacks volume, indicating only sentiment recovery rather than a trend reversal.
Short-term support is at 75305, resistance at 75807, with repeated oscillations between bulls and bears within this range. The market driven by news is highly volatile, making it unsuitable to blindly open positions in the middle.
Be patient waiting for a directional breakout, strictly adhere to position discipline, and always prioritize capital preservation.
⚠️Risk warning: This is only market sentiment and does not constitute any investment adviceWatch for a long opportunity as BTC liquidity at the low point 74800 is pulled back from the spike!
The current candlestick pattern is clearly showing a rise followed by a fall.
Chasing shorts now is not cost-effective; the safest approach is to first see if this drop can hold steady at the key 75000 level.
Strategy: Long on support
Entry: Stabilize between 74800-75000
Target: 76500
Content exclusively created by Lao Yu
$BTC $ETH 🔥This time, the nonfarm payrolls poured cold water on the market! The actual new jobs reached 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month. Those who were expecting a cooling in employment may need to reassess their judgment.
💥The trouble brought by strong employment is that the Federal Reserve may not ease policy so quickly. Market expectations for a rate hike in December have risen from about 70% to 78%, which will cause capital to reassess the valuation and liquidity of risk assets.
📉BTC was previously trading near $76,000, and ETH near $2,230; both were under pressure before the data release. But note, strong nonfarm payrolls do not necessarily mean the crypto prices will continue to fall; the market may have already priced in expectations or even show a reverse fluctuation of falling first then rising.
🧭Next, I am more focused on three signals: whether the US dollar continues to strengthen, whether US Treasury yields rise, and whether BTC spot buying truly supports the market. If ETH continues to underperform BTC, be wary of insufficient rebound strength.
🛡️The worst thing in data-driven markets is to immediately heavily position in one direction after seeing the results. Judgments can be adjusted, but positions must be disciplined. Are you choosing to stay out now and wait, or preparing to look for the next opportunity after confirmation? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 "Friday night prices are half fake"
The same sell order can push the price down by $300 on Tuesday afternoon, but by $800 in the early hours of Saturday.
Liquidity has its rhythms. The overlap of Asian, European, and US trading sessions has the thickest liquidity and the narrowest spreads; by the weekend, market makers withdraw orders and order books thin out, causing a sharp drop in market depth. The price impact of the same trading volume in a thin order book can double.
This leads to three distortions.
First, spreads widen. The "latest transaction price" you see might just be a very small order hitting a gap.
Second, false breakouts increase. Key levels broken over the weekend often don’t mean someone is firmly shorting, but rather that there are no buy orders below — after breaking through, the price is pulled back, leaving a long wick.
Third, liquidations concentrate. When liquidity thins, stop losses and forced liquidations are more easily triggered in a chain reaction, making the drop look more severe than the actual selling pressure.
So to confirm a breakout, two conditions must be met: it happens during a period of sufficient liquidity, accompanied by volume expansion, and the price does not recover for some time afterward. Missing any one of these means it’s only an "intraday touch," not a "structural breakout."
The corresponding approach is simple: don’t chase breakouts on weekends, discount your position size according to liquidity, loosen stop losses or skip them altogether, and wait for liquidity to return on Monday for confirmation. Not all prices are reliable signals; some just mean no one is taking the other side.
Discussion: When a key level breaks over the weekend, do you treat it as a real breakout?
My answer: treat it as an "invalid sample" unless it still doesn’t recover by Monday. Prices formed during low liquidity periods inherently carry low information; making high-cost decisions based on low-quality samples is the real reason many lose money.
Poll: When you encounter a weekend breakout, you usually — A. Stop loss immediately; B. Wait for Monday confirmation; C. Actively add positions to bet on a rebound; D. Simply don’t watch the market.
I choose B. The problem with A is possibly getting stopped out at the lowest point; the problem with C is mistaking luck for skill.
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion.\$BTC #MarketAnalysis🚨 The Jobs Report Just Changed the Fed Game — Is Bitcoin Heading for Another Shakeout?
The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report came in much stronger than expected, catching the market off guard and increasing bets on a possible Fed rate hike.
Here’s how I see it:
📉 Panic selling could come first. 🧹 Excessive leverage gets flushed out. 💰 Strong hands start looking for better entry opportunities.
My personal view: One more dip before a potential rebound.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Employment data is strong, indicating the economy is not significantly cooling down, and the pace of inflation decline will be dragged, so the Federal Reserve has no reason to quickly shift to easing. U.S. Treasury yields rose in response, U.S. stock risk assets came under pressure, and the crypto market was suppressed along with them. Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent rally in the short term; capital will reprice the expectation that high interest rates will persist longer, and selling pressure on the market is likely to intensify.
The current market contradiction is clear: strong employment is a fact, but we also need to see if subsequent CPI and PCE inflation data can keep up. Relying on a single nonfarm payroll report can only raise the probability of a rate hike, not confirm it. If inflation data remains sticky, a rate hike in December is not a low-probability event; conversely, if inflation declines, this expectation surge is just a short-term disturbance.
In terms of operations, don't rush to bottom-fish. When macro expectations fluctuate repeatedly, market volatility will be intense. Prioritize controlling position size and wait for inflation data to settle before deciding on direction. Altcoins will be much more volatile than mainstream coins and carry higher risk. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
🔥The October US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations this time, giving no respite to the bulls! The market originally expected an increase of 65,000 jobs, but the actual figure was 165,000, surpassing expectations by 100,000! This employment report may put pressure on risk assets once again.
📊The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month, and the job market performed stronger than the market had imagined. The market was initially worried that employment cooling would be insufficient; now it must face a new question: does the Federal Reserve still need to maintain tightening?
□□More importantly, the market's expectation for a rate hike in December has risen from about 70% to 78%. Strong employment means the Fed does not need to rush to pivot to easing; changes in the dollar and US Treasury yields will continue to influence risk appetite in tech stocks and the crypto market.
📉Previously, BTC was fluctuating around $76,000, and ETH was under pressure near $2,230; these were reference prices before the data release and should not be taken as current real-time prices. The focus now is whether BTC can hold key support levels and whether ETH will continue to underperform BTC.
⚠️The most important thing this time is not to guess the price direction but to reassess interest rate expectations. Do you think strong non-farm payrolls will push BTC further down, or has the market already priced in the negative news?【Market-wide deleveraging, why are there still funds willing to take on HYPE?】
$HYPE is currently around $78, down about 7% in 24 hours, down about 17% in the past 7 days, and has retraced nearly 20% from the high near $97 at the end of October. However, compared to many altcoins, HYPE still shows some resilience, with protocol revenue and institutional holdings being important supports.
As of October 28, Hyperliquid Strategies holds about 38.9 million HYPE, with a total investment of $1.583 billion and an average cost of $56.35. Over the past 12 months, Hyperliquid has created about $834 million in value for the ecosystem. Programmatic buybacks continuously provide demand for HYPE, and institutions are also betting on the ecosystem's long-term development through their holdings.
The short-term has not been fully cleaned out yet: the total open interest (OI) of contracts across the network is about $3.57 billion, with 24-hour contract trading volume close to $3 billion, far exceeding spot trading volume; during the same period, liquidations amounted to about $21.8 million, mostly longs, indicating that leveraged funds are still crowded.
I remain moderately bullish on HYPE's mid-term performance. $76–$78 is the current support; only by reclaiming $84–$85 can it be considered an effective recovery, and breaking through $88–$90 will have a chance to challenge previous highs again. Do not chase short-term moves; wait for further deleveraging before looking for pullback buying opportunities. Step 4: Only talk about rolling positions when there is floating profit
First, move the stop loss to protect profits. If the trend is still intact, add a little with the earned money; if the trend weakens, reduce immediately. Adding positions when losing money is like jumping into a pit, and recklessly adding when making money will also lead to losses.
Step 5: Increase order size only when the account reaches 3000U
When reaching 3000U, single orders can be increased to 800 to 1000U, but the risk red line must not move. Forgetting the rules after just a little profit will quickly get you cleaned out by the market.
Step 6: Must withdraw money after making profits
Rolling 1000U to 3000U, first withdraw 500U. No matter how good the account numbers look, if you don’t take profits off the table, you might lose it all back.
My view is straightforward: from 1000U to 10,000U, luck can help a few times, but discipline is what holds it together. Rolling positions only does one thing—use profits to amplify opportunities, don’t gamble with principal. Being able to endure, wait, and cut losses is what gives the account a chance to grow.A non-farm payroll chart that directly rewrites the entire market script.
165,000 new jobs added, far exceeding expectations, unemployment rate at 4.1%, wages up 3.1% year-over-year, all strengthening, previous values revised upward simultaneously. The market had previously bet on weakening employment, hoping for the Fed to slow down and shift to easing, but this bullish bet was instantly passive.
As long as employment and wages remain resilient, the Fed has no reason to ease up; high interest rates will last longer, possibly with another hike. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, and risk assets like crypto and semiconductors naturally face selling pressure.
The root cause of the previous massive account shrinkage of the 800 Brother is also this macro logic. Earnings beats are just an interlude; the interest rate cycle is the real conductor.
When trading with leverage, the biggest taboo is ignoring macro factors and diving headfirst into individual stock positives.
If rate hike expectations continue to rise, will you go completely flat or counter-trend buy to bet on a rebound?
#BTCRolling a 1000U position, I only follow these six bottom lines
Two years ago, I met a young brother who entered the market with 1000U, hoping to double it in three days, but after a week he only had 400U left. Later, he stopped chasing quick gains and followed the rules, trading one order at a time, and made 6800U in two months. It’s not that his skills were extraordinary, but he finally took discipline seriously. If you want to roll 1000U to 5000 or 10,000, don’t think about getting rich quickly first; focus on how not to die. I’ve seen too many people lose not because of bad judgment, but because of itchy hands and stubbornness.
Step 1: Test the waters with a small position
With 1000U principal, only use 200 to 300U for the first few trades, keep the rest untouched. Small capital fears heavy positions at the start; winning once can make you overconfident, losing once can damage your foundation.
Step 2: Only trade what you understand
I focus on three things: whether the position is clear, whether the long-term trend is favorable, and whether the risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1. If any one is missing, stay out. The market is open every day; you don’t have to trade every day.
Step 3: Set stop-loss orders first
Limit single trade losses to 2% to 3% of total capital, capped at 20 to 30U. If you’re wrong, admit it; don’t add to the position or average down. Holding on stubbornly once wastes all previous efforts.True — pullbacks have set up every big run, 2018 and 2022 included. But the setup needs the level to hold: $BTC is at $75,363 now, and $75,000 is the line. Hold it and the dip really is a setup for new highs; lose it and $72,000 then $70,000 come into play. Reclaim $76,371 first — are you buying this pullback or waiting for the reclaim? #Bitcoin #BTC #USJobsBeatExpectationsTonight's labor data is all negative news again.
Currently on the market, BTC has dropped from 76200 before the data release to around 75500 after an hour of the US stock market opening.
There has been no reversal.
Trading volume remains sluggish.
ETH's price fell from 2243 to 2215.
I believe the core of this trend lies in two aspects.
First, the overall BTC market is indeed in a main downtrend. After last night's sharp drop, sentiment has not yet recovered.
Second, the short-term ups and downs of all markets are still being priced in, that is, after the Democrats took control of both houses, which assets are favorable and which need to be repriced; there is not yet a unified market consensus. We are currently in a chaotic period.
I believe that after about 15 more days of BTC and ETH price discovery, the market will have a clearer understanding, and the trend will become very clear.
In short, the current overall BTC strategy is to short after any 4-hour divergence and rebound is complete.#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 🚨 Alert sounded! $BTC ran out 1.1 billion USD in 7 days, are the big ETF holders quietly retreating?
Don't be fooled by today's slight dip! Look at the capital flow behind it, this is the truly chilling part. 📉
Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a cumulative net outflow of about 1.12 billion USD in the past 7 days! What does this mean? This is solid "smart money" exiting.
Although the latest day turned to a slight inflow, it looks more like a breather in a downtrend. Even more painful is that Bitcoin's current annualized volatility is 44%, close to Tesla's (46%), but its correlation with gold is only 4%.
What does this indicate? It means it is currently not a safe-haven asset at all, but a "high-volatility tech stock" getting hit along with the US stock market!
When the US stock market drops, it drops with it; when the US stock market rebounds, it may not rise as much.
Brothers, is this 1.1 billion outflow the main force shaking out weak hands or a real exit? Do you think the bottom has been reached? 👇$ETH structure is bearish, with the price falling steadily from the high of 2450 down to around 2240. The Bollinger middle band at 2238.7 and lower band at 2219.1 continue to move downward. There was a net active sell volume of about 170,000 coins in 24 hours, with a single-day drop of approximately 6.4%. The cost zone center is far around the POC at 2331.8, and above, from 2409.5 to 2410.2, there is an additional long cost wall and resistance of about $110 million; near-term resistance is seen at the dense trading area near 2248 and the Bollinger upper band at 2258.4. Support below is at the lower edge of the value area at 2227.2, and further down, after losing the 20-hour low at 2205.4, the long liquidation cluster around 2122.1 with about $130 million is deep-level fuel. On the capital side, there was a net active outflow of about $1.12 million in 1 hour and about $91.52 million net outflow in a 1-day window. The rebound strength is insufficient to reach the ideal hanging unit, so a direct market short is placed at the current price of 2240.4. Stop loss is set above 2250.5; if the price reclaims 2250, it indicates the rebound has become a true breakout and the bearish logic fails. The target is the previous low support zone at 2213.6, with a risk-reward ratio of about 2.7. The main risk is a 4-hour window buyback (net inflow of about $6.51 million) pushing the price to recover the resistance zone between 2248 and 2258, causing losses on short positions, or a sharp drop to the previous low followed by a quick pullback to stop losses. #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元