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$BTC Daily Report #BTC财库优先股融资升温 🔥 Bull Trap or Second Bottom Test? Bloodbath at BTC 78,000 Level, The Storm Has Just Begun!
📊 1. Market Daily Report and Liquidation Data
BTC is currently consolidating narrowly around $78,100. The total 24-hour liquidation across the network reached $5.01M.
Among them, short liquidations totaled $3.64M (the largest single short liquidation occurred on Binance, valued at $1.18M);
long liquidations totaled $1.36M (the largest single long liquidation occurred on OKX, valued at $298.9K).
🎯 2. Trader's Practical Analysis
Don't be fooled by the slight rebound in the past two days! The daily RSI has dropped to 38, indicating weakness, and the total network volume has shrunk to 18% of the daily average, a typical sign of a major player pumping to lure longs. Large capital is exploiting liquidity exhaustion to drain funds; the annualized funding rate above is only 5.6%, showing extremely low willingness for bulls to follow. This volume contraction rebound is merely accumulating momentum for the next downward surge.
📍 3. Key Price Levels for Offense and Defense
* First resistance: $80,000 (daily 50 EMA and heavy options expiry pressure zone)
* Strong resistance: $82,000
* Key support: $76,000
* Strong support: $73,000 - $75,000 (dense liquidation pool below and the ultimate defense line at the 200-day moving average) First bear market bottom around January 10, 2015
Second bear market bottom around December 10, 2018
Third bear market bottom around November 10, 2022
Fourth bear market bottom around June 10, 2026
According to the carved-boat theory, Bitcoin should now be close to a 70% drop, but in reality, it is not.
In other words, where the price can go has nothing to do with historical timing or trend patterns; many things are coincidental. Each cycle has different trends, and they are unpredictable.
No matter what the trend is, the bottom state is always the same:
1. Start doubting the bull market is gone
2. Reach a consensus on an exaggerated low point
The essence of the bottom is the clearing of selling pressure, the exhaustion of sell orders. If everyone is cheerful and full of hope for the future, how can selling pressure be cleared?
Therefore, the bottom must be under extreme pressure, with bad news everywhere and no hope in sight.
It makes the bulls lose confidence in being bullish at the end,
And makes the bears confident in being bearish.
This state is just telling you that this is a good buying opportunity, a state that must be experienced before dawn arrives.
When the signal appears, no one can precisely buy at the lowest point. After you buy, the price may continue to fall, which does not mean you bought wrong.
When the market moves out, you will find that the buying position back then was very reasonable.
Just like in June and July this year, buying at 68000 or 65000 was very reasonable, even though the price continued to fall after you bought.$MUBARAK has been suppressed below EMA5/10/20 for 2 hours, with no support at 7-day -16% and 30-day -30%. About 80% of near-term liquidations are above, but the cumulative volume up and down is roughly balanced. Dense trading occurs at 0.0448-0.0449, approximately $76,000; below that, only 0.0434, less than 0.5%. Compared to the daily trading volume of 1.88 million, both levels are only enough for wicks.
If it rebounds into 0.0448-0.0452, and closes with an upper shadow then returns below 0.0443, short again with a stop loss at 0.0456. First target is 0.0435; if broken, then look at 0.039. If it first sweeps 0.0434 then recovers to 0.0436, only a short-term long is possible. This kind of coin will eventually go to zero #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The 7.02 million $UNI hole on Binance still hasn't been filled.
Nearly a $40 million spot gap, sooner or later it has to be bought back from the secondary market.
They've been forced to become the biggest obvious long position on the board.
As long as the shorts dare to push down, every low they create is essentially patching the exchange's inventory and propping up the price.
For this position to drop deeply, someone would have to magically produce millions of spot tokens to return to the platform.
#UNI
$UNI
👇$BTC VS $ETH liquidation comparison, the overall trend is the same, but the short-term rhythm is different📊
Both major coins prioritize liquidating short positions within 24 hours, but there are distinctions in short-term details:
✅ BTC: 24h liquidation of 36.578 million U, with larger short position liquidations, the main force focuses on harvesting short funds
✅ ETH: 24h liquidation of 36.565 million U, short position liquidations are also predominant, long positions are first washed out in hourly phases, with more frequent back-and-forth tug-of-war
Overall, it's a short-squeeze market, with ETH experiencing more frequent short-term shakeouts.
The same major liquidation direction, with short-term interspersed long position washouts, making the volatile market hard to grasp. Today, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are following two different scripts.
Domestic main funds poured 11.7 billion into A-shares, with 4,681 stocks rising, and the STAR 50 index soaring 3.11%.
AI short drama concepts hit 20% daily limit in batches, liquor stocks also revived, with Moutai climbing back above 1400.
Trading volume exceeded 100 billion, turnover reached 1.78 trillion, a rare high open and strong rally.
But on the Hong Kong side, the Hang Seng Tech index rose 2.25%, Xiaomi surged over 6%, looking quite lively.
However, southbound funds net sold 4.469 billion on the same day, marking the 14th consecutive day of outflow, with Xiaomi alone being sold off by 1.8 billion.
The index is red, but money is withdrawing; this kind of divergence is more worth watching than a one-sided decline.
A-shares are driven by trading policy expectations, while Hong Kong stocks are influenced by trading liquidity realities.
Neither side is wrong; the mistake is thinking that what’s rising is safe. A true public chain does not equal a good business: dissecting why CORE's technology can't save its token price?
As of November 2, CORE is priced at about $0.0136, down over 99% from its all-time high, with a circulating market cap of only about $12-14 million, having fallen into the high-risk small-cap range. Many call CORE a true public chain: it has Satoshi Plus consensus, EVM compatibility, BTCFi narrative, buyback mechanisms, and institutional nodes. But the problem is, whether a public chain can survive depends not only on technology but also on capital, users, liquidity, and a closed-loop revenue model. CORE's collapse is not simply due to a bear market drag. In March 2026, the ecosystem lending protocol Colend triggered a liquidation cascade, compounded by a hard fork that temporarily unbound some tokens from mining power, causing concentrated selling pressure and a single-day drop exceeding 50%. In September, it was revealed that validators were over-claiming tokens, leading exchanges like Coinbase, Bithumb, and Bitget to suspend deposits and withdrawals, further damaging trust. Since then, although the ecosystem still has BTC staking, LST, SatPay, and other layouts, the token price remains under pressure, liquidity is thin, and rebounds are repeatedly crushed by sell-offs. This reveals a harsh reality: technology can be written into a whitepaper, but liquidity must be backed by real money. When ecosystem revenue is insufficient to cover unlocking sell pressure, and protocol buybacks can't outpace market selling, even the best narratives will be devoured by price. CORE may not go to zero immediately, but it has already issued a warning: in the public chain race, a true chain without real users and sustained capital inflow will become semi-zombie.Has $XAU Gold already found its bottom? Market divergence intensifies
In this round, gold prices have continued to decline, with the market fiercely debating whether the current position marks the bottom. The Federal Reserve's December rate hike expectations remain the core bearish factor suppressing gold prices.
In the short term, U.S. inflation shows strong stickiness, compounded by rising oil prices pushing inflation risks higher. The market is repricing the possibility of further Fed rate hikes, and U.S. Treasury real yields remain elevated. As a zero-yield asset, gold's holding costs rise, leading to continuous capital outflows. After losing the $4000 threshold, short-selling pressure has been released in concentration. The trend has not yet clearly reversed, so it cannot be directly confirmed that the bottom has formed.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the fundamental support logic for gold remains: multiple central banks continue to purchase gold, and the trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves has not changed. Geopolitical risks also provide long-term support. Institutions generally believe that gold prices are unlikely to experience endless deep declines. The current position may have entered a bottoming range, but bottoming often involves repeated testing and there is a possibility of a secondary dip.
To confirm the bottom going forward, two major signals are needed: first, a significant weakening in U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data, leading the market to lower December rate hike expectations; second, gold prices must stabilize at key support levels and show sustained rebounds. Until then, gold prices are likely to remain highly volatile and fluctuate repeatedly. $BTC Recently, a series of security incidents in the crypto industry have triggered the sector to initiate collaborative defense. Hackers' attack methods have evolved, and two types of risks are particularly worth vigilance.
First, assets can be stolen without stealing private keys, merely through malicious authorization. Attackers no longer focus solely on stealing private keys but induce users to sign, gaining asset transfer permissions. This is why regularly clearing wallet authorizations is crucial.
Second, third-party supporting services and hardware wallet supply chains have become new attack targets. Many mistakenly believe hardware wallets are like safes, but attacks have now extended to distribution channels and supporting third-party services. Once breached, a large number of user assets can be affected.
On the market front, although mainstream coins have slightly risen—BTC up 0.45%, ETH up 0.38%—the market appears stable, but security risks have not diminished at all.
Practical advice for ordinary participants: do not click on unfamiliar links; carefully verify authorization content before signing; prioritize offline cold storage for large assets; always purchase hardware wallets through official channels. In the crypto market, asset security always comes first.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 三兄弟的资金流向，正在讲三个完全不同的故事。$BTC 净流入508.21枚，$SOL 净流入5.66万枚，而 $ETH 却净流出1977.99枚——同一张市场快照里，资金不是在整体进退，而是在做一次内部换仓。 这轮最值得盯的叙事，不是“有没有资金进场”，而是“资金在挑谁”。大额买单持续托住 $BTC 和 $SOL，说明部分资金把当前价位当成布局窗口；与此同时，$ETH 的大额订单连续撤出，更像是在利用反弹兑现利润。一个在低位收货，一个在反弹出货，方向完全相反。 很多人会把这解读成普涨前的震荡，但资金分化到这个程度，恰恰说明市场内部已经不再同频。分化行情的容错率极低：追高一侧容易被另一侧的抛压拖住，抄底一侧又要承受结构继续走弱的可能。真正难玩的不是方向不明，而是两个方向同时成立。 我的判断是，短期强弱的分水岭不在价格，而在资金能否重新收敛。若 $BTC 与 $SOL 的净流入延续、而 $ETH 的净流出收窄，说明这是换仓而非撤退，风险偏好仍在；若 $ETH 的流出继续放大并拖累 $BTC 的流入节奏，那这轮分化就会从“结构切换”演变成“整体降温”。 数据只是资金流的一个截面，但它暴露的倾Tonight, the US stock market can focus on tech stocks!
Crude oil has clearly fallen today, driven by expectations of easing tensions from US-Iran negotiations. The cooling oil prices help alleviate market concerns about inflation, and risk appetite may rebound, with funds possibly refocusing on tech stocks that had previously adjusted.
Based on the current pre-market performance, US stock index futures are strengthening, with Nasdaq futures leading the gains. Tonight, tech stocks indeed have a chance to rebound.
But one thing to note: a drop in oil does not necessarily mean tech stocks will rise. Tech stocks already experienced significant selling last week, and the market still has differing views on AI investment and profit returns. Tonight, attention should also be paid to Apple's earnings report and whether tech stocks can truly rebound with volume.
Personally, I am more focused on the performance of the Nasdaq, AI industry chain, and semiconductor sectors tonight. If tech stocks can reclaim key levels, the rebound will be more sustainable; if it’s just a low open followed by a rise or a spike and then a fall, be cautious of a bull trap.
Tonight, let's first see how the market moves and not rush to chase highs. Opportunities should wait for confirmation from the market rather than betting on direction based solely on news. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SPCX $BZ At the macro level, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, but two officials advocated for a rate hike. The market's pricing probability for a rate increase in December has risen to over 70%, with a hawkish stance maintaining further suppression of risk appetite. The approximately $6.3 billion security incident at Binance directly impacted market sentiment, with BTC briefly dipping to 76,270 and leveraged position liquidations exceeding $1.3 billion; however, the decline of about 4% was less severe than the roughly 11% sharp drop following similar events in 2018. Binance has stated it will fully cover losses using company funds and the user protection fund. Tether and Circle froze over $2.3 billion in stolen stablecoin assets, and the most intense phase of the incident's impact may have passed. ETF capital flows show event-driven concentrated outflows: Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of 643.2 million, the largest since October, while Ethereum ETFs experienced five consecutive days of net outflows, totaling 1.61 billion in October. The restoration of institutional risk appetite still requires time to verify. This week, the U.S. midterm elections, nonfarm payroll data, and tech company earnings reports will be potential triggers for increased volatility in the next phase. If employment and wage data exceed expectations, it may strengthen bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, further pressuring BTC and other risk assets. It is recommended to operate with light positions within key ranges, strictly set stop losses, and focus on BTC's core support defense between 76,600 and 76,270 and ETH's between 2,200 and 2,273, as well as whether ETF capital flows can stabilize and return after the event shock. SanDisk and SK Hynix dropping again? Are the main players really running away or just handing out chips?
Last Friday, the storage sector took a collective hit... SanDisk was dragged down by Kioxia's comment about slowing price hikes, and SK Hynix was also hit by the negative sentiment. But today, some in the Korean stock market are quietly bottom-fishing SK Hynix, turning the drop into a rise, indicating it's not that no one wants it, but panic sellers were washed out first $BTC looks like it's climbing back to 78,000, but underneath it's pretty tangled.
Binance just revealed a 6.3 billion hole, and ETFs pulled out over 600 million USD in a single day[reference:0].
Institutions are withdrawing, leverage just got cleared in a round, blowing up over a billion[reference:1].
But if you look at the market, way more coins are rising than falling, median up +4.2%, money is wildly flowing among small and mid caps.
INJ, TIA jump 20 to 30 points easily, while the big coin barely manages +1%.
$ETH is following the rise but without much explosive power, $SOL is among the large caps that keep up relatively well, but still can't beat the small caps.
In short, big money is scared, while retail traders are scavenging for gains in the junk pile.
The biggest risk in this market is you
seeing small caps fly, chasing in, while the big coin sideways moves and they dump directly.
Wait until $BTC can really hold above 82,000 with volume before calling it an alt season, otherwise it's all just rotating rebound traps.Don't get carried away just because 72% of people voted that the results exceeded expectations. This earnings report meets the surface targets but the profits have been stripped bare behind the scenes. Revenue surged past 100 billion to barely pass the line, but iPhone growth plummeted and service revenue hit a three-year low. Is this really "exceeding expectations"? It's purely living off old gains.
First, looking at iPhone hardware, the surface data looks impressive with record sales in China. But the supply chain quietly adjusted, slashing orders for the 18 Pro, propped up only by extra orders for foldable screens. The Duo foldable screen launched too late to contribute anything this quarter, relying solely on old products to hold the line, with no real new volume to compete.
Next, look at profit margins — this is the harshest hidden blow. Storage chip costs have been driven sky-high by AI companies, flash memory costs doubled sharply, slashing gross margins significantly. Analysts estimate a steep drop in overall gross margin, with net profit growth squeezed to very low levels. It's like profits are being rubbed against the floor.
Finally, the new CEO, Tim Cook's successor, had his debut, but the market doesn't care how much was earned this quarter. Everyone is waiting to hear his hints on AI strategy and holiday season guidance. Apple has always been a safe haven with a conservative approach, but Siri has been left far behind by competitors. If the call doesn't deliver something solid, that 72% vote will instantly turn into a stampede to exit.
In summary, the earnings report most likely just barely passes revenue but drags down profits. Surface-level "exceeding expectations," but hidden profit margins collapse. Don't be fooled by the votes. #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Seeing numbers like 500 million TRX and 158 million USD, the first reaction is usually "Something's going to happen."
I thought the same at first and even checked the market, but it was quite calm.
Later I realized that moving funds out of a lending protocol is completely different from transferring them into an exchange. The former might mean someone is redeeming collateral or the protocol is just moving accounts; the latter is when orders are about to be placed. This time, all four transactions are just circulating between unknown wallets, with no sign of exchanges involved.
So there's really no need to panic. Large on-chain transfers look scary, but most of the time it's just money changing pockets; the excitement is just for the spectators.$JTO
Solana's transaction infrastructure deserves attention beyond token speculation. Jito combines liquid staking through JitoSOL with MEV-related infrastructure, giving its ecosystem multiple sources of activity. However, network usage and governance-token demand are not necessarily the same thing. Understanding that distinction is essential when evaluating JTO's longer-term fundamentals. Solana Compass +1 #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching? $233 million spent on buying votes, Bitcoin awaits the 'who controls Congress' starting gun
11.3 Voting day nears, crypto PACs have spent $233 million (Fairshake and others over $200 million), Ohio flipping red = CLARITY Act revival, flipping blue = heavy regulatory crackdown.
Three outcomes, three BTC scenarios (median forecasts)
Republicans hold both chambers: pro-crypto legislation continues → year-end median $90,800, post-election sentiment recovery + ETF inflows
Split Congress: deadlock grinds down → median $84,100, short-term volatility clearing out
Democrats sweep: strict regulation returns (CLARITY stalled, tax tightening) → median $76,450, initial drop to 75K
Middle East tensions add risk: Netanyahu urges Trump to 'strike Iran post-election,' White House unconfirmed, but WTI still at 101, Brent over 110. Actual conflict = oil prices surge to 120 → inflation expectations rebound → Fed more hawkish → BTC drops first then talks 'inflation hedge narrative.'
Current market
BTC at 77K consolidating, ETH weakly recovering at 2270, options Gamma exhaustion + election uncertainty = volatility ready to explode. Historical pattern: midterm election years see BTC average drawdown of 56%, then average 54% gain in the following 12 months.
$233 million is not a gift to Trump, but a purchase of 'regulatory certainty options' for BTC.#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The Federal Reserve is currently clearly following a data-dependent path. This nonfarm payroll report is a key pre-observation before the December decision, directly stirring rate hike expectations, but a single data point is unlikely to be decisive. The current core divergence: inflation stickiness remains, while employment is beginning to show signs of weakening resilience. The dot plot retains the option of one more rate hike this year, with officials' views divided.
If nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and wage growth rebounds, it indicates the labor market remains tight, wage inflation pressure rises, greatly increasing the probability of a December rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar would strengthen, suppressing crypto and precious metals. Conversely, if new employment weakens noticeably, wages fall back, and unemployment rises, it would confirm that tightening has begun to weigh on employment, hawkish stance would soften, rate hike expectations would cool rapidly, and risk assets would get a breather.
The neutral scenario is data falling within expectations, with the market returning focus to the inflation narrative, shifting attention to upcoming core PCE and CPI. Note: even if employment weakens, as long as core inflation remains elevated, the Fed will still keep the rate hike option; if employment overheats but inflation continues to decline, members tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
On the market front, some rate hike possibilities have already been priced in, making it easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dynamic. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins will fluctuate sharply in the short term following the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Pay close attention to the wage component, which the Fed values more than new employment numbers.
Follow-up tracking order: average hourly earnings > new employment numbers > unemployment rate, combined with inflation data for cross-verification. $BTC $SOL $ETH From 17:54 to 17:59, within five minutes, four transfers of about 500 million $TRX each were completed. The first transfer was from JustLend DAO to an unknown wallet, valued at approximately 158 million USD; the other three occurred between unknown wallets.
Let's first look at what can be confirmed: the amounts are consistent, the times are close, and the recipients are all unknown wallets. These three points indicate the same event—a centralized scheduling rather than scattered individual actions. No one can click four times in this rhythm manually.
JustLend is a lending market on TRON. Money coming out of the lending pool can be explained in at least three ways: borrowers repaying and retrieving collateral, large holders withdrawing liquidity, or the protocol itself rebalancing positions. The first two represent position changes, while the third is merely bookkeeping. None of these equate to selling, which is a common initial misunderstanding.
What truly determines the direction is the destination. Only if funds enter an exchange deposit address does it count as potential selling pressure; if they continue circulating between wallets, there is no real impact on the market. Currently, all four transfers are in transit, and the most critical field—the destination—is empty.
Therefore, the existing information is sufficient only to answer "what happened," but not "what will happen." The label "unknown wallet" is precisely the most important blank in this entire matter.
One more detail: the four transfers are nearly equal in amount and all occurred within five minutes. Market maker rebalancing, over-the-counter settlements, and cross-protocol migrations all tend to take this form. Rather than guessing motives, it's better to wait for the next transfer—if it leads to an exchange deposit, that will be the real signal.Wealth Management Position Weekly Report (10.26–11.1)
Mainly Bitway + Huma + Pendle USDat, plus two PONS LP positions, see the chart for details.
Bitway: 8% annualized + 3% points, totaling about 25,000, daily interest about 5.5 U.
$HUMA Prime: 6-month term nominal 15.3%, USDC portion fully redeemed this week, totaling about 32,000, daily interest about 13.8 U.
Pendle USDat: PT is on Morpho cyclic lending, health factor 1.37, net about −1.6 U/day, earning points, matures on January 14.
USDat points S2: total about 175.57M, this week +55.97M (about +1,276 U).
LP: PONS/WETH deposited 9,200, pending 66 U; PONS-USDG deposited 9,855, FABLES emissions not included.
Interest-bearing positions about 57,100, weighted annualized about 12.09%, daily interest about 19 U, actual based on weekly market value changes.
#WealthManagement #StablecoinWealthManagement #Pendle #USDat #DeFi#Nonfarm Payrolls Incoming, Will the December Rate Hike Change?
"Nonfarm Expectations at 60,000, BTC Returns to 78,000"
At 9:30 PM on November 6th, the October nonfarm payroll data will be released. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs, doubling the previous figure of 29,000.
The core issue is that the September core PCE reached 3.1%, and the market has priced in a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December.
With high interest rates looming overhead, after BTC's heavy sell-off on the 30th, it has been consolidating with low volume around 78,000 for three consecutive days. Funds are waiting for the nonfarm results to come out before reconciling. $BTC Kanye's associated address suspected of increasing position by $4.7 million while repeatedly going long on $ETH 👀
After the Binance hack news was disclosed on 10.30, this address sold 1390 $ETH on-chain to reduce liquidation risk. Today, after a large batch of withdrawals were opened, it withdrew 2074 ETH from #Binance again. It is not yet clear whether this is an increase in position or simply a token withdrawal.
Currently, it has collateralized 21,109 ETH and borrowed $27.71 million in stablecoins, with health factors of 1.44 and 1.62 respectively; portal 👉 0xdeA611a2f605FE63962E0151e724E9ce4C8a1d5c
#ETHTests2500 $ETH Seeing this message, my first reaction was not "the selling pressure has been avoided again," but rather a sigh for those still waiting. Some stories, the market has turned the page, but the people involved remain stuck in place.
This is exactly the case for Mt.Gox creditors. Nearly 13 years after bankruptcy, what they face again is a delay: on October 16, the trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi announced that, with permission from the Tokyo District Court, the deadline for repayments in the third category has been extended from October 31, 2026, to October 31, 2027. This is the fourth consecutive one-year extension, and the related wallets still hold about 34,400 BTC, roughly a quarter of the planned distribution amount.
I prefer to see this as an extension of uncertainty rather than a clear positive. Moving the deadline does not mean these coins won’t be distributed before then; having coins in the wallet doesn’t mean creditors will sell them once received. Translating the delay directly as "less selling pressure" skips too many steps in between.
For creditors, what’s extended is the wait; for the market, what remains uncertain is the distribution pace. My guess is that if subsequent transfers lack explanations, on-chain movements will easily stir emotions repeatedly. The approximately 10,400 BTC transferred out in June this year, with no explanation from the trustee yet, is an example of this information gap.
What this story reminds me is: a delay only changes the deadline; it does not write the ending. What do you think? Will the distribution gradually complete over the next year, or will we be waiting for another delay announcement?Tonight's review: First, let's talk about the market. BTC fluctuated between $78,000 and $78,600 today, up about 1% compared to the weekend, marking the third consecutive day of gains. However, the $80,000 level remains out of reach. ETH hovered around $2,280 to $2,300, rising 1% to 2%. Data compiled during trading on November 2, subject to real-time exchange updates. Why the rise? Because the worst panic is over. On October 29, Binance was hacked for about $6 billion, with the FBI attributing it to North Korean hackers. Binance stated that approximately 95% of the affected assets have been replenished, and withdrawals are being restored in batches. The market's reaction is that knowing the worst-case scenario makes it less scary. Why didn't it rise more? Because the Federal Reserve is still holding rates between 3.75% and 4%, with two members wanting to raise rates. On Friday, US tech stocks plunged, suppressing valuations of risk assets, and crypto is also struggling to breathe. I want to say something painful: replenishing 95% means user funds have been restored, not that the stolen funds have been recovered from the hackers. These are two different things. It's like your partner saying, "I've compensated you 95%," but you still have to ask, "What about the other 5% and the future?" So after an exchange incident, I personally do three things: 1. Don't panic to withdraw or add positions; first check official announcements, not screenshots in chat groups. 2. Diversify: spread funds across different platforms; keep frequently used funds on exchanges; move long-term holdings to your own wallet. Don't put all your assets in one basket. Same in relationships: don't place all your sense of security on one person. 3. Set up two-factor authentication and withdrawal whitelist properly. This is the cheapest insurance.Last week in the US stock market spot crypto ETFs, XRP products saw a net inflow of about $4.32 million; in the same week, BTC had a net outflow of about $203 million, ETH about $432 million, and SOL about $71.47 million. Cointelegraph and several dashboards have all reported these figures. CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.25 (snapshot around 18:02 Beijing time, about -0.1%).
Next to the hundreds of millions in outflows, the few million in inflows can hardly be called rotation. It's more likely small positions are buying against the trend, which doesn't mean institutions have shifted their holdings from the mainstream to XRP. The opposing view might say that continuous positive inflows over several months indicate someone has been consistently buying; but the absolute value is too small to cover this round of price pullback or support a big story of capital rotation.
To interpret this as genuine differentiation, at least one more week of same-direction increased buying is needed. If next week's net inflow falls back to negative, or single-week inflows remain below five million, then this should be considered noise differentiation, not that XRP has been chosen by capital.
$XRP
#XRP #ETF $BTC hovered around $78,000 for a whole day, fluctuating less than a hundred dollars up or down. The fee rate is 0.0096%, but the Deribit December contract only premiums the spot by 0.8%. This spot-strong futures-weak structure is rare—leverage hasn't moved, and no one is adding positions. October closed down 7.32%, the worst since 2014. Last week, Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion, the Fed stayed put, and after over 1.5 billion long liquidations, momentum is insufficient. Before the FOMC, I stayed flat waiting for the outcome. This time, the statement didn't move much, which is reassuring—stability tests patience more than sharp rises or falls.$HYPE
1.06 billion USD.
The two highest earners on Hyperliquid this month are now both short, with their combined short positions at this amount. The headline is straightforward, betting on a decline in crypto assets.
I checked the market. HYPE is currently at 85.84, down 2.47% in 24 hours, with a low of 85.25. The perpetual funding rate is still a positive 0.01%, meaning longs are paying.
These two facts together feel awkward. The most profitable people are betting on a drop, yet the funding rate is positive, so longs haven't given up and are still paying to hold. Shorts not only hold the direction but also collect rent.
I don't think this signals a waterfall drop. 1.06 billion sounds scary, but in this market cap, it won't break much; it looks more like someone hedging spot or waiting for a worse entry point.
What really needs watching is when the funding rate turns negative. That would mean longs have conceded, not this current stubborn hold.
As someone who likes to follow smart money, my historical record shows I've lost out several times. This time, I don't plan to try a fourth time.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC
There is a piece of data today that not many people are sharing. Bitcoin's active addresses are down 43% from the peak, but the daily average transaction volume has only dropped 5.4%.
Putting these two numbers together really tells the story. Addresses dropped by 40%, but the money flow hasn't decreased. It's the small accounts that are moving less; the large accounts that should be transferring are still transferring. Retail investors are retreating, but the demand for on-chain settlement hasn't declined.
The price matches this situation. The 24-hour volatility is 1.6%, with a high of 78,831 and a low of 77,555, currently at 77,930, down 0.15%. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0059%, basically zero, meaning no one is aggressively taking a direction. Open interest is $2.61 billion, and no one seems to be withdrawing.
My view is that this kind of low-volume sideways movement is neither a bottom nor a top; it's waiting. Waiting to see how the $6.3 billion case will conclude, waiting for when ETF money will stop flowing out.
I have never trusted active addresses as a standalone signal; it's a thermometer, not a trigger. The fact that addresses dropped by 40% without the market crashing indicates that the chips are concentrated in the hands of a few. This kind of structure rises quickly and falls even faster.
So I don't guess the direction; I wait for the volatility to expand on its own.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Bitcoin, will history repeat itself this time? Looking back at the four rounds of U.S. midterm elections, after the votes are cast, BTC has always experienced a significant drop, forming a very notable pattern. Interestingly, the decline in each round has been gradually narrowing: 2010: down 72% 2014: down 65% 2018: down 52% 2022: down 27% Looking at the fourth quarter of election years alone: 2014 fell 16.7%, 2018 plunged 42.2%, 2022 dropped 14.8%, with three out of four times closing lower. Moreover, the bottoms of the first three cycles appeared 71 days, 38 days, and 13 days after election day, respectively. Many worry that the historical curse will play out again. But CoinDesk's data analysis offers a different perspective: The real core variable may not be the midterm election itself. The Nasdaq did not show the same pattern of decline, and BTC's several major bottoms highly coincide with the four-year halving cycle. The election just happened to coincide with the timing window of the cycle adjustment. The root cause driving the market adjustment is Bitcoin's own four-year cycle, not the election results. Returning to the current market: BTC is currently fluctuating around $78,300, rebounding from a low of $76,300, about 38% retracement from the all-time high of $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index is at 37, slightly improved from 30 last week, but overall market sentiment remains cautious. Trading volume has already expanded to more than twice the 30-day average, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting at a critical level; both bottom-fishing and fleeing coexist, and no one dares #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC $ETH
The key variable for the December rate hike is no longer inflation, but employment — however, the non-farm payrolls only decide "whether to hike or not," not "whether to cut or not." So a weak non-farm payrolls report provides a 2–8 week valuation repair window for tech stocks, not a trend reversal.
Why is this non-farm payrolls report particularly significant this time?
The inflation line is already settled: September CPI year-on-year at 3.72%, month-on-month +0.65% (previous base 324.245 → 336.298). The month-on-month annualized rate exceeds 8%, this is not "close to 2%," but a reignition. The Federal Reserve actually raised rates in September (effective federal funds rate 3.63% → 3.75%).
With inflation a fait accompli, all remaining disagreements hinge on whether employment can withstand another rate hike. Therefore, this Friday (11/6, as usual the October employment report is released on the first Friday of November) is the only variable before the December 9–10 meeting that can still change the outcome.The overnight tape is doing what thin liquidity does best: manufacturing false floors. $SOL near 95 looks bid-heavy at first glance, but the order book tells a different story. What sits there is position reduction, not fresh capital — traders closing exposure as price slides, not new money stepping in. The genuine demand cluster is lower, with roughly $34 million in buy orders stacked between 91 and 93. That is the zone where the market has actually committed size. $BTC around 77,900 carries a $BCH BCH really can't be pushed down around 289.
Several times it dipped down briefly, but as soon as it touched down, buying pressure pulled it back. What's more interesting is that the shorts are still continuously paying interest to suppress the price, with the rate always negative, and the short positions getting more and more crowded.
In this kind of market, I prefer to side with the bulls. Shorts hold positions and pay daily fees, yet the price just won't fall; as soon as the main force lifts a little, there's a bunch of ready buybacks.
If it can't fall, it can only squeeze upwards. Now it's a matter of whether the support at 289 can continue to hold.
#BCH
$BCH
👇#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 First viewpoint: I side with the beat expectations camp, but beating expectations doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will rise; the key is whether the guidance is strong.
Palantir will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes tonight. Already, 84% of people in the discussion expect a beat, with trading volume exceeding 2 million, so market expectations are very high.
There is indeed confidence: Q2 revenue rose 93% year-over-year, with US commercial business even stronger, up 149%. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance. The rollout of sovereign AI and AIP are truly rare stories, and even Goldman Sachs has upgraded to a buy.
But the problem is this: high growth is now an open secret, and high valuation is also obvious. As long as the earnings meet growth expectations, the market might just say "Oh, got it." To push higher, it requires a significantly larger beat or an upward revision of Q4 guidance. Conversely, if growth slows, the high valuation will not be spared from a sharp drop.
So tonight, don’t just focus on whether it "beats expectations"; focus on two points: whether the US commercial business can maintain triple-digit growth, and whether the full-year guidance moves. These two points will determine the post-market price movement.#Apple's New CEO Faces First iPhone 18 Report Card After the U.S. market closes on November 2, Apple will release its latest earnings report. This is the first "big test" report card since the new CEO John Ternus took office, and the initial sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series will be reflected in the performance for the first time. The overall environment is quite tough now, with memory chip costs rising and Apple being criticized for lagging behind in AI large models. Looking at the current market, although 72% of people in the prediction market bet that it will exceed expectations, tokenized Apple stock still slightly fell by 0.5%, indicating that big money is quite cautious before the announcement. My personal view: Apple is currently in an extremely awkward "transition" period. The supply chain foundation left by the Cook era is indeed strong, so the phones will definitely still sell. But the capital market is now very demanding; relying solely on hardware sales is no longer enough to stimulate the stock price. The new CEO Ternus comes from a hardware background, and what everyone most wants to hear from him now is: when will Apple's AI truly be implemented? Facing rising storage costs, can profit margins still be maintained? Currently, 72% of funds bet on exceeding expectations, which is actually a dangerous signal—expectations are set too high. As long as the earnings report even just "meets expectations" or the outlook for new products isn't explosive enough, funds will mercilessly sell off, playing a "good news fully priced in" game. What impact will this have? In the short term, this is a barometer of global tech stock sentiment. If Apple's earnings report bombs or the stock price plunges, the risk appetite for the U.S. tech sector will beDoes a meme coin have to rely on value investing? I don't think it's necessary. You can look at popularity, consensus, and whether the funds are willing to keep playing, but that's a different matter from calculating how much money the business can make. I'm not against meme coins; if a trend emerges, I'll pay attention, but I don't dare to treat a big drop as a bargain. Some dog coins have introduction pages written in a grandiose way. I looked for a basis to estimate their value for a long time, and my mouse wheel almost smoked from scrolling.Just saw that Mt.Gox has been delayed again, this time for the fourth time, with the repayment deadline pushed directly to October 2027.
Honestly, this matter has been dragging on since 2014, almost 13 years now, and creditors are still waiting. There are still 34,400 BTC locked on-chain, worth about $2.8 billion at current prices, accounting for a quarter of the originally planned distribution. And from last October until now, this wallet has only decreased by 300 BTC, basically untouched.
The most interesting part is that in June this year, 10,400 BTC were transferred out from the cold wallet, but the trustee hasn't said what this money was used for, and the balance hasn't decreased. This kind of unclear and inexplicable transfer is what really irritates the market.
However, I think the delay might not be bad for the market. In July 2024, 96,000 BTC were transferred to Kraken all at once, causing BTC to drop below 55,000. The remaining 34,400 BTC now are just a fraction of that, and this time the explosion is postponed by a year, not immediate. The coins are distributed for creditors to decide whether to sell or not, so it might not crash the market.
My view: don't panic in the short term, but if you see large movements in the Mt.Gox wallet next time, better stay clear. This old story isn't over yet.
#Web3 #BTC #MtGox🚨 UNI from "governance token" to value capture, is it really undervalued around $7?
Once criticized for only being able to vote, $UNI is now trying to change its value logic.
With the advancement of Uniswap's fee capture mechanism, protocol revenue is gradually linked to UNI burn. The fundamentals have a new story, but the price has yet to break through. What exactly is the market waiting for?
📊 Market Observation:
UNI has recently been fluctuating around $7, with $7.5 as a key short-term resistance. On-chain activity is rebounding, and the v4 upgrade along with liquidity aggregation features also bring new imagination space for the protocol.
🔥 Potential Positives:
- Fee mechanism driving UNI value capture
- v4 and Aggregator Hooks enhancing liquidity integration capabilities
- DeFi capital rotation may bring new attention
⚠️ Risks also exist:
BTC still dominates the market, and macro data may amplify volatility. If UNI falls below $6.8, short-term adjustment pressure may further increase.
Key levels:
Watch $7.5–$7.8 above; pay attention to $6.8–$7.0 support below.
The leader says:
UNI's logic is changing, but improved fundamentals do not mean the price will rise immediately. A real breakthrough still requires volume and market capital confirmation.
Don't rush to call a takeoff, nor easily label it as a worthless coin. Before the market confirms, controlling position size is key.
$BTC $ETH $UNI
Always set your stop loss on orders!On November 2, Animoca Brands announced that its subsidiary Animoca Asset Management obtained a financial services license issued by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), authorizing it to conduct collective investment fund management business within ADGM.
First, clarify the nature of this license. It is not an exchange license; it is a "collective investment fund management" license — allowing compliant management of others' money and investing it into digital assets. Opening a trading channel solves the "can you buy" question, while obtaining a fund management shell solves the "can you buy on behalf of institutions" question, with a vastly different level of significance.
The entity itself is also worth noting. Animoca's old label was blockchain gaming and NFT investment, but this time it has singled out asset management to obtain the license, making its move very clear: from investing on its own to investing on behalf of others. Minh Do said the license allows it to manage funds under sound regulation, connecting institutional capital with digital assets.
What does this mean for the market? It doesn't mean a pump tomorrow. From license issuance to fundraising and then to building positions, there are due diligence and compliance steps in between. The change is structural: institutional money now has a regulated vehicle and doesn't need to go around spot markets or overseas shell companies to express views. The more such vehicles there are, the more "dull" the marginal buying pressure for $BTC and $ETH becomes — slower to arrive, but less likely to exit due to a single bearish candle.
One point worth pondering: don't focus on the headline, focus on where the first money of this fund lands. Nonfarm payrolls and elections are coming one after another: BTC and ETH rebound, who will be tested first?
Before the nonfarm payrolls and elections have landed, BTC and ETH have already rebounded. But looking at the market, I actually think BTC's short-term recovery might be tested first.
The reason is simple: BTC retreated after reaching around 78,866, not far from the previous hourly-level support low of 77,917. Although ETH hasn't firmly held above 2,318, it is still above the recent support low of 2,279. Currently, BTC is closer to its defense line.
Don't be quick to assume ETH is definitely stronger. The U.S. midterm election voting day is November 3, and the October nonfarm payrolls will be released on November 6. Before the results come out, news and expectations may stir the market; weak employment data could simultaneously bring expectations of easing interest rates and growth concerns.
I will first watch BTC at 77,900: if it closes below this on the hourly chart and fails to rebound above it, this recovery might loosen first, with 77,600 as the next support to watch. If ETH also breaks below 2,279, it indicates weakening support on both sides.
Conversely, if BTC holds 77,900 and climbs back above 78,400 while ETH breaks below 2,279 first, my judgment that BTC will weaken first does not hold. If both pull back pressure, we cannot continue to focus only on declines.
In terms of operation, I will wait for the hourly close and pullback, and will not chase orders between the two defense lines.
$BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #OKX星球话题来啦 OpenAI has cut its current fundraising target from $30 billion to $20 billion, with its valuation dropping from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, shrinking by $150 billion. There is absolutely no competition among Morgan Stanley private banking clients. Why are even the hottest assets starting to be discounted? #OpenAI融资目标下调，Anthropic信用风险受关注 Don't fool yourself, this Bitcoin rebound is just a gentle trap in a downtrend continuation.
Large ETF outflows and Coinbase premiums have been negative for a long time; institutional funds have quietly withdrawn. Miner revenue surged, but single hash rate earnings have shrunk, which could trigger selling pressure at any time. Bitcoin is stuck oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000, seemingly resilient, but the buying power has long been exhausted.
Ethereum has no independent rally; once Bitcoin breaks down, Ethereum will be pushed to accelerate its decline by leveraged positions. Many are rushing to bottom-fish now, mistaking the volatility for a base-building phase.
The market warming is essentially an escape window for trapped positions, not the start of a new bull market. As long as capital inflow can't keep up, every surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum is a chance to trap investors.
$BTC $ETH #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 🚨 The U.S. midterm elections are about to ignite the market! Will the Republicans hold Congress, or will the Democrats pull off a comeback? BTC and the U.S. stock market could face major changes!
On November 3rd, the U.S. midterm elections will officially take place! All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will be up for election.
What really matters is who controls Congress!
🔥 Scenario 1: Republicans control both the House and Senate!
The Trump administration’s efforts to push tax, fiscal, and cryptocurrency-related policies may face less resistance.
The market might interpret this as positive, with U.S. stocks and BTC likely to gain sentiment support!
⚠️ Scenario 2: Democrats retake the House, Republicans hold the Senate!
This means the U.S. could enter a political split situation!
Policy advancement would become more difficult, crypto regulatory legislation might slow down, and U.S. stocks could experience short-term volatility due to policy uncertainty.
💥 Scenario 3: Democrats control both chambers!
The Trump administration’s domestic legislative agenda could face greater restrictions, and crypto companies might face stricter congressional investigations.
However, political gridlock could also limit some fiscal policies, which may not be entirely negative for the stock market!
So what should we do?
Focus on three key signals: the distribution of congressional seats, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and the trading volume of BTC and the Nasdaq!
Remember: what determines market rises and falls is not just which party wins, but whether the election results exceed Wall Street’s expectations!
The real market movement may only begin once the results become clearer!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Is Trump going to lose? Midterm election countdown! 70% odds settled, will Bitcoin and tech stocks be repriced?
The latest prediction market data directly pushes the probability of the Democrats sweeping Congress to 70%, and Trump's Republican Party is very likely to lose the initiative.
Because midterm elections have always been the president's "midterm exam." Nearly two years into Trump's administration, the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all become reasons for Americans to settle accounts.
But honestly, Trump's previous two elections were similar, trailing in the polls, but when the actual results came out, they miraculously reversed the situation. Can another miracle happen this time? It seems less likely at the moment.
Currently, the market is pricing in a Democratic sweep as the main scenario. For the market, the Democrats taking both chambers means a significant increase in checks and balances. Trump's subsequent tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff increases will be constrained, making policy implementation more difficult.
Actually, this is not surprising. As shown in the chart, before and after the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, the Nasdaq hit its lowest points, with significant pullbacks. This time looks no different, starting a sharp correction.
In fact, this year we have discussed this in multiple episodes, calling it the midterm election curse. The market tends to pull back as the midterms approach. I believe everyone has noticed this; I wonder if anyone managed to sell at the top?
According to historical data, although the market pulls back and creates a big dip during each midterm, these are actually very good opportunities to re-enter. Prices then gradually rise afterward, and Bitcoin is no exception. Everyone, remember to seize the opportunity~[AAOI's 800G orders begin to materialize, Q3 revenue expected to challenge $290 million, profit is the real test]
$AAOI The most anticipated aspect of this earnings report is that the 800G optical modules are finally ramping up. In Q2, the company reported revenue of $191.9 million, an 86% year-over-year increase. The shipment volume of 800G modules more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, with related revenue reaching $12.8 million. Management expects Q3 800G revenue to be about 5 times that of Q2, indicating that AI data center demand is truly converting into orders and revenue.
The company’s Q3 revenue guidance is $255 million to $290 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 29% to 30.5%. The market expects revenue around $268 million. As long as 800G shipments proceed smoothly, exceeding revenue expectations is not hard to imagine. The company also expects demand for 800G and 1.6T products to continue exceeding capacity until mid-2027. Order demand is not the biggest issue for now; production and delivery capacity are.
The company completed a $600 million ATM offering, which supplemented expansion funds but also diluted shares, pressuring the stock price. On October 30, AAOI closed at $69.05, down 12.8% in a single day. The market clearly did not unconditionally buy into the strong AI demand; expansion is also a real cash burn.
#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ $OKB Observation: Binance net outflow of $3.64 billion, OKEx receives net inflow, OKB only rises 1.39%
In the first 9.5 hours after Binance resumed withdrawals, $4.649 billion was withdrawn and $1.01 billion was deposited, resulting in a net outflow of $3.64 billion. DefiLlama shows that OKEx, Robinhood, and Bybit all had net inflows during the same period.
OKB is the platform token of OKEx; users and funds flow to the platform, benefiting trading fees and platform activity. This is the direct reason it entered the top three gainers today.
The rise is restrained, current price at 112.85, after reaching a 24-hour high of 115.64 then retreating. Trading volume is only $9 million; the fund migration has not yet turned into large-scale buying.
The buy orders account for 73.6% of the order book; support below is stronger than selling pressure above. The intraday low of 110.97 is the first support level.
The FBI has attributed this attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor and has requested cross-chain protocols and nodes to jointly intercept the stolen funds. The more effective the industry's joint defense, the less panic users have when moving funds between platforms. Whether this inflow can be retained depends on the next few days.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 The judgment is simple: extract the logic behind this profit, then run it again with different times, different assets, and different market conditions. If it can be repeated, explained, and the drawdown is controllable, that's skill; otherwise, it's just market dividends, not skill.
Making a profit once in crypto is not hard; the difficult part is whether the same logic can earn a second or third profit. Doubling altcoins in a bull market, chasing meme hype, getting rich from airdrops—many are market dividends: hitting the rhythm once, but failing in another cycle. Conversely, grid trading, dollar-cost averaging, cross-exchange arbitrage, and funding rate strategies, if the rules are clearly defined and fees and slippage are deducted, and they still have positive expected returns in bull, bear, and sideways markets, and can perform outside the sample, that is more like true skill.
The most expensive illusion in crypto is mistaking a one-time market dividend for your own trading ability. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Wow, this market is getting more and more interesting. 😂
Tomorrow is the US midterm election, and just now, a huge whale suddenly appeared on-chain and instantly scooped up $65 million worth of ETH.
This move looks really familiar; it's obviously a big player betting early on the macro event landing. Does this mean that once the midterm election hype passes, the market is about to start a violent rally?
Honestly, with this amount of real money being thrown in, it's definitely not charity. The big players probably think the current price is cheap enough to secure chips early and avoid missing out. Also, historically, once the election results are confirmed and short-term macro uncertainty is removed, risk assets usually experience a wave of emotional recovery.
But we can't be blindly optimistic either; don't forget the hole left by the hacker incident a few days ago hasn't been fully filled yet. The whale entering is a good sign, but whether it can directly trigger a big market move depends on whether follow-up funds come in.
Anyway, this $65 million investment at least shows that smart money is moving.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH 表面热闹的meme季，底下其实有人在悄悄换仓 这波PEPE的加仓，是信心还是风险在悄悄搬家？ 这两天看链上数据，有个细节让我停下来多看了两眼。一位被叫作传奇交易员的地址，又加了45.08亿枚PEPE，现在手里总共握着价值约1019万美元的PEPE。最抓人的是那笔老仓位：2023年4月通过Uniswap V3用0.125枚ETH换来的5.9万枚，后来峰值一度到过1亿美元。这种故事太容易让人上头了，但我更在意的是他这次的钱从哪来——卖了60万枚SPX，换成约21万美元，再去买PEPE。这不是单纯加仓，这是把一类风险敞口挪到另一类上。 再看一眼更大的图景，孙宇晨那边也在收PEPE，规模约5125万美元，占总量3%。两个大名字同时出现，情绪面肯定会被点燃。但我想提醒的是，市场现在交易的其实不是"PEPE有没有利好"，而是"还有多少人愿意在meme板块继续承担波动"。ETF申请确实递了，大额销毁的说法也在传，可销毁没被确认，ETF还得等，这些预期有一部分已经被提前计价了。真正没被充分看见的风险是：如果这些大额持仓开始做风险管理，比如对冲、分批止盈，山寨的情绪会先于价格反应。 偏多的路径也不是没有Conclusion first: In Q3, the stock perpetual contracts on nine exchanges traded $1.61 trillion, with Binance alone taking 58.6% ($943 billion), OKX second with $254 billion (15.8%), and the top three accounting for about 82%. Stocks account for 77% of traditional asset perpetuals, while commodity perpetuals only reached $491 billion.
Moreover, the top 20 stock perpetuals make up 88% of the volume, among which 7 are storage chip stocks and ETFs.
But you should pay more attention to another figure: the weekend trading volume of these contracts averages only 14% of that on weekdays. Even though the US stock market is closed, you can still open positions 24/7, but liquidity drops to just one-seventh, so you bear the spread and slippage yourself.
OKX announced today at 17:30: five stock perpetuals—ADI, FLEX, MELI, $PEP, and UMC—will open successively from 19:30 to 20:30 tonight. The platform currently hosts 253 stock X-Perp contracts.
The mechanism to note: funding fees settle every 8 hours, clamped at ±1%, and if the cap is hit, it automatically switches to 1-hour settlement—so if you hold positions over the weekend without moving, fees still accrue.
I checked OKX’s market: in 24 hours, the 253 stock X-Perp contracts traded a total of $125 million, just a fraction of a single BTC perpetual contract ($297 million). 239 contracts had trading activity, but most only saw tens of thousands of dollars in volume all day.
Would you bet on US stock perpetuals over the weekend, or wait for the market to open?