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#Nonfarm payrolls are imminent, can employment data strengthen the expectation of a December rate hike?
With nonfarm payrolls approaching, the market is already trading with the December rate hike as the baseline scenario—CME pricing shows a 72%–83% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Although the October FOMC held steady, there was a 10-to-2 vote split, with two hawkish members voting against and favoring a rate hike.
The current expectation is for October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000, higher than September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected data signals to the Federal Reserve that "employment is not slowing down." Against a backdrop of 3.7% year-over-year CPI and 3.6% year-over-year PCE, hawks gain further ammunition to tighten policy, solidifying or even increasing rate hike expectations. If the data weakens significantly, for example, new jobs fall below 30,000 and unemployment rises, then "employment risk" will outweigh "inflation risk."
For BTC and ETH, the logic is straightforward: strong nonfarm payrolls = confirmed rate hike = pressure on risk assets. BTC at 80,000 and ETH at 2,280 will face renewed tests; weak nonfarm payrolls = rate hike uncertainty reopens = repair window opens. However, high-beta assets like SOL only show resilience if BTC and ETH first stabilize.
The current market feels like braking in fog; nonfarm payrolls are the foot deciding whether to "keep braking hard or ease off." Are you betting on stronger-than-expected data confirming a rate hike, or weaker data reopening December uncertainty? $BTC $ETH $ZEC 84 million USD, gambled down to 500 USD.
Forced liquidated 60 times in half a year, yet he’s still gambling.
40x leverage shorting Bitcoin.
40x means: if the price moves against you by 2.5%, your principal is gone.
This person is called James Wynn,
working on contracts at Hyperliquid,
positions fully public, anyone can check.
Famous for: betting direction with dozens of times leverage, admitting losses publicly.
Last night and early this morning, Bitcoin went from 78,000 back to 80,000, and his short positions at 78,244, 79,361, 80,677 were liquidated three times in a row.
20 minutes later, he opened another short position.
Liquidation price 81,376.
If Bitcoin rises another 2%, he’s out.
Who pushed him up? It’s the funds.
Yesterday, Bitcoin funds had a net inflow of 74.57 million,
Sounds like money came back.
Let’s break it down:
Fidelity alone put in 237 million,
all other funds combined withdrew 162 million.
So it’s not money coming back, it’s one fund buying while others are running away.
Although money came in,
he still says: Bitcoin will fall a lot more.
So he continues shorting Bitcoin, what do you think?#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压
The boss has something to say
I was watching the market tonight, and the divergence is even more striking than the news: Microsoft's stock price hit a record high, Amazon rose 1.8%, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.13%, hitting a six-month low; Micron dropped 7%, Seagate fell 8%, CoreWeave nearly 10%, and data center stocks like IREN dropped 5.9%. After the midterm elections, the market is repricing — the Democratic Party leans toward environmental protection and tighter approvals, narrowing the path for new data centers. Cloud giants with existing data centers and power resources have become scarce assets.
My interpretation is: this is not the AI story breaking down, but a reshuffling within AI. Approval freezes suppress new supply, creating a premium on existing data centers and power resources, benefiting giants who have already built them, while operators relying on new projects to tell their story face headwinds. For the crypto world, there are two takeaways: first, high-beta momentum stocks are being hit, so risk appetite will cool down; second, companies like Hut 8 and IREN, which are "mining farms transitioning to computing power," are under pressure, indicating that power and approvals are becoming hard constraints. This is a long-term supply-side positive for miners but a short-term sentiment negative.
BTC's current price has fallen back below $80,000, confirming my daytime judgment to stay out and wait for a pullback. My approach: after losing the $80,000 key level, the next defense line is 78,960. I will only re-enter long positions if the 7,900–7,950 range stabilizes; if it breaks below 78,960, I will continue to wait. With earnings season and policy season overlapping, volatility will increase, so being out of the market is itself a position.
$BTC $ETH This wave of Bitcoin's rise is essentially driven by short sellers covering their positions, not new funds entering the market. Don't get carried away by the gains; be cautious about chasing the highs. 🔥 Nonfarm payrolls expected just over 60,000, previous value was only 29,000!
Friday 21:30 Beijing time, US October nonfarm payrolls released
According to foreign media summaries, the market roughly expects an increase just over 60,000, unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, average hourly earnings rising about 0.3% month-over-month; September's figure was only 29,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, hourly earnings rose just 0.1%
During my years at the futures company, nonfarm night was the one night I dared not sleep
The data itself isn't scary, what's scary is the first minute after release, which way the market swings
If the numbers are too strong, with new jobs far exceeding expectations and hourly earnings hot, interest rate expectations will be revised upward, growth stocks and Space Chain may shake briefly, and SPCK can't avoid it either. If too weak, risk appetite warms up, SPCX is more likely to rise along.
If basically in line, just quietly watch your own levels, no move if levels hold
$SPCX perpetual is around 133.8 now, down about 1% in 24 hours. Hold long term, no short-term rush before data, after nonfarm lands and stands back above 135, still bullish
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $PYTH
Reliable market data is essential for decentralized finance. Lending protocols, derivatives platforms, and other smart contracts need accurate information to function properly. Pyth Network addresses this challenge through its oracle infrastructure and market-data distribution model. Yet oracle competition remains intense. The important question is whether expanding data usage translates into durable demand for the PYTH ecosystem and meaningful token utility.$ZK
Ethereum scaling is a competitive business, not simply a technology race. ZKsync uses zero-knowledge proofs to support scalable blockchain applications while maintaining Ethereum compatibility. Its challenge is converting technical capabilities into sustained developer interest and meaningful economic activity. A growing ecosystem matters, but token holders also need a clearer connection between network success and tokenTETHER’S PHYSICAL GOLD RESERVES JUMP 59%
Tether reported approximately 25.7 tonnes of physical gold reserves at the end of Q3 2026, valued at around $3.44 billion.
That’s a 59% increase compared with the end of 2025.
The expansion comes as central banks added 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 and gold ETFs recorded 211 tonnes of inflows. Growing institutional demand could strengthen the case for tokenized gold, with XAUT among the assets to watch.
#XAUTGoldReservesUp59% SanDisk has been halved from its high, is it time to bottom-fish now?
Looking at this chart, SanDisk dropped from 2382 to the current 969, a direct halving. Why such a severe drop? Triple hit:
1. Macro black swan: Democrats took both chambers, aiming to restrict AI data center expansion, directly collapsing long-term demand expectations for storage chips.
2. Industry logic fracture: Upstream Kioxia warned NAND price hikes are slowing, from a 70% surge down to just over 20%, spreading panic about the cycle peaking.
3. Consumer side bleeding: Price hikes backfired, consumer revenue plunged 29% quarter-on-quarter, bulls completely discouraged.
When to build positions in batches? My approach is "left-side probing, right-side heavy positions":
• First batch (now): Around 960-1000, small position (10%-15%) to bottom-fish, betting on oversold rebound. I previously had a pending order at 1150 which I canceled, now resetting at this level.
• Second batch (defensive): If it breaks below 960, look around 900-920. Or wait for the November 19 stock split (1-for-8) to see if there’s a stabilizing candlestick.
• Third batch (heavy): Wait for right-side signals, such as next quarter’s data center business fully offsetting consumer weakness.
Reminder: Although institutional target prices are above 2000, they are being revised downward. Don’t go full position just because it’s dropped a lot; left-side building tests position management the most. I’ll challenge real trading with 10u, following this rhythm. Shareholders, where do you think the bottom is?
This does not constitute investment advice. $SNDK ANTHROPIC IPO VALUATION SPARKS A BIG DEBATE
Some prospective institutional investors reportedly favor a $1.5T to $1.6T valuation for Anthropic, below the roughly $2T figure previously discussed.
Its Q3 revenue surged 1,127% year over year to $16.956B, but operating losses reached $567M and growth slowed quarter over quarter.
The challenge is turning explosive AI demand into sustainable profits. Revenue growth alone may not justify any valuation.
#AnthropicIPOPriceDebate **$xXLE SHORT SETUP — Rejection at 64.57 Pulls Price Back Toward Support**
xXLE failed near 64.57 and printed a large red candle. Price now sits below MA5 and MA10, and MA5 is rolling over. The next test is MA20 at 64.01.
Setup stays valid while price holds below 64.30. Not financial advice, manage your risk.
Trade on $xXLE A public blockchain entrepreneur has set his sights on two AI companies that have not yet gone public. This matter itself is worth pondering.
VeChain CEO Sunny Lu's view is: the potential IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI may bring short-term impacts to the crypto market. Note the wording, it's short-term. He is not bearish; he is reminding about the timing.
Why would the IPOs of two AI companies affect the crypto circle? The mechanism is not complicated. They are the most capital-attracting targets in the primary market. Once they go public, institutions need to free up positions to participate in the new stock offerings. The assets sold first are often those with good liquidity but no cash flow, which fits crypto assets perfectly. So $BTC and $ETH will feel the chill first, not the heat.
Sunny Lu's focus is not on the short term. He believes AI and blockchain will jointly complete a new industrial revolution, bringing clear application scenarios. To put it plainly: AI needs computing power, data, and settlement; the chain can provide the latter part. This is the story that public chains like $VET have been telling all along.
The judgment has two layers. In the short term, the AI giant IPOs are a capital drain; don't chase the hype as good news. In the medium term, if AI truly uses the chain as infrastructure, the beneficiaries won't be the coins with the loudest stories but the chains that are genuinely used.
A question to leave: The last round of AI concept coins rose on imagination. If this round only has imagination left, how many people will be willing to pay?$IRYS — Irys
Blockchain infrastructure requires more than transaction processing; data availability, accessibility, and verification also matter. Irys is developing a data-focused blockchain infrastructure layer. Its potential significance lies in supporting applications that require persistent, verifiable data rather than relying entirely on conventional centralized storage systems. $AI — Gensyn
Decentralized machine learning infrastructure addresses an important challenge: access to distributed computing resources. Gensyn focuses on creating infrastructure for machine learning workloads. Its progress deserves attention through network participation, verifiable computation, developer adoption, and whether decentralized infrastructure can compete with conventional computing providers. US POLITICAL SHIFT PUTS CRYPTO REGULATION BACK IN FOCUS
Democrats reportedly secured both chambers in the November 3 midterms, changing the political landscape in Washington.
The crypto industry could face a fresh debate over market structure legislation, SEC authority and conflict-of-interest rules for government officials.
For digital assets, the key issue isn’t just who controls Congress.
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate In the past 24 hours, $BTC on OKX ranged from a low of 78,203 to a high of 81,200, with a volatility close to 4%. This level of fluctuation is normal breathing for spot trading, but for 20x leverage, it could mean liquidation.
Many beginners confuse "stop loss" with "liquidation," but there is a big difference.
Stop loss is the exit point you set yourself. For example, if you open a long position at 80,000 and set a stop loss at 78,000, you lose 2.5% when it drops there. With 10x leverage, that means 25% of your margin is lost, and the remaining 75% is still there, allowing you to open another position.
Liquidation (forced close) is when the system closes your position for you. For an isolated 10x long position opened at 80,000, the liquidation price is roughly just above 72,000; for 20x leverage, it’s just above 76,000, only about 4% away from the current price. When it hits that price, your margin is basically wiped out, and you don’t even get a chance to regret it.
My own understanding: leverage doesn’t determine how much you can earn; it determines how much volatility you can withstand. Before opening a position, first check the liquidation price, then ask yourself: how much larger is this distance compared to the recent daily volatility? If you can’t even handle one day’s fluctuation, either set your stop loss far ahead of the liquidation price or simply lower your leverage.
The exact liquidation price will vary slightly depending on the maintenance margin rate and fees; it will be displayed directly on the order page, so don’t rely on mental math.
Before you open a contract, do you check the liquidation price first or set a stop loss first? Why is it dropping like this, and yet some people still dare to buy?
ETH plunged deeply to $2,245, then bounced back to $2,387.90. Many are puzzled: the fundamentals haven't improved, so who's buying?
The answer lies in the data: in the past 30 days, it has already corrected by -7.28%, with the price at the 43rd percentile of the range — it has dropped deep enough and is low enough, making it a good value.
After most panic sellers have exited, the remaining holders have low cost bases, so selling pressure naturally decreases.
Thus, funds begin to tentatively enter at the low levels, and the buy orders on the order book gradually thicken. This isn't some earth-shattering good news, but the simplest truth: when it's cheap, people get tempted.
But on the other hand, don't mistake "someone buying" for "immediate rise." The trapped positions at $2,574 are still there; to truly open up space, it requires volume and a strong recovery above $2,626.
So my strategy is simple: accumulate in batches above $2,245, add more after breaking $2,574, and exit if it falls below $2,177.
Remember: staying calm when others panic is the hardest and most valuable skill in this field. Data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.US JOBS DATA COULD SET THE TONE FOR MARKETS
ADP reported 86,000 new private-sector jobs in October, beating expectations of 69,000. The ISM services employment index also moved into expansion at 51.4.
However, the official NFP report remains the key test. Markets will be watching payrolls, unemployment and wage growth for clues about the Fed’s next move.
Strong hiring could complicate expectations for a December rate cut, with the dollar and Treasury yields in focus.
#USJobsReportInFocus $XDP — Doppler Finance
Doppler Finance is developing infrastructure for productive tokenized assets, including XRP and RLUSD vault strategies. XDP introduces a utility and governance layer for protocol participation. The key research angle is whether decentralized coordination can support financial products with institutional operational requirements. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$CAP large buy/sell costs rise simultaneously, small order costs basically unchanged. Simulated 100k scale buy/sell slippage increased from 0.62%/0.59% to 0.71%/0.65%. The deterioration is an execution warning, not a directional signal.
$APP large sell costs decrease, small sell costs almost unchanged. Simulated 100k scale sell slippage dropped from 0.36% to 0.32%. 10k sell still about 0.13%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are decreasing.
$SNXX after order size amplification, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage 0.08%/0.07%, 100k is 0.39%/0.43%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous cost increase on both buy and sell sides indicates overall order book depth is thin.📊 $BTC Keeps Battling Above $80K, Micron Maintains Strong Cash Flow, While BCH Remains in Consolidation $BTC | 80,738.51 | +5.5% in 24H 🪙 Bitcoin continues to trade above the important $80,000 psychological level. After briefly slipping toward $79,952, $BTC quickly recovered, showing that buyers are still defending this zone. The recovery is encouraging, but repeated fluctuations around $80K reveal that the market is still divided. The next key signal will be whether $BTC can establish a hiMacro Background: Nonfarm Payrolls Are the Next "Pricing Anchor"
Tomorrow night (November 6), nonfarm payrolls are the next key variable: expected increase of 62,000–65,000, with ADP and ISM employment subindexes showing strength. Against the backdrop of December rate hike pricing remaining high, stronger employment data will reignite rate pressure, while weaker data might provide temporary relief—but "relief does not equal reversal."
After midterm election uncertainties fade, a weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields have provided a brief window for risk assets, but the forward discount on regulatory outlook has not been eliminated. The Fear and Greed Index has rebounded from previous extreme lows to near neutral; sentiment recovery is underway but has not yet entered the greed zone. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, BTC and ETH seem to have weak rebounds: the bears are really waiting not for poor data, but for a "data mismatch" to trigger a waterfall
From a bear's perspective, this non-farm payrolls report may not necessarily cause a direct waterfall just because of "negative data." The October non-farm payrolls will be released on 2026-11-06, with the market expecting about 65,000 new jobs, compared to the previous 29,000; if both employment and wages are strong, it could reduce easing expectations and put pressure on risk assets; if employment weakens significantly but wages remain high, a stagflation interpretation could also amplify volatility.
On the market front, BTC is currently quoted at 79,761.03 USDT, retreating intraday; RSI(6) is 54.59, MACD remains in a death cross zone, super trend is downward, and there is a net outflow of large funds. ETH is quoted at 2,388.57 USDT, also weakening intraday with net capital outflow, but MACD has just formed a golden cross, indicating its rebound structure has not fully turned bearish yet.
Therefore, I would not conclude that "non-farm payrolls = waterfall." What bears are really waiting for is: data exceeding expectations with a hawkish bias, simultaneous tightening of the dollar and risk appetite, and BTC and ETH breaking recent structural lows with volume. Otherwise, employment data below expectations could also be interpreted by the market as a signal of policy easing, triggering a rebound after a sharp drop. The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.Google, Intel, SpaceX and the Nasdaq 100 are all represented in this market through tokenized exposure.
That’s an interesting development for crypto trading platforms.
But tokenized exposure doesn’t automatically mean direct ownership of the underlying shares. Traders should understand the product structure before taking positions.#ModernaQ3VaccineSales BTC rebounds to 80,000, who is driving this rally?
Currently, $BTC is around $80,400, $ETH about $2,420, and $ZEC stands above $1,300. All three coins are rising, but the drivers differ: during the rebound, the entire market liquidated approximately $378 million worth of shorts within an hour; however, CoinGlass morning data shows BTC futures OI remains near $53.4 billion, with almost no expansion. This looks more like short covering driving the move, and does not yet prove a full entry of new bulls.
Spot funds have not confirmed either. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4, but the previous two days combined had a net outflow of about $514 million, so a single day turning positive is not enough to reverse the trend. ETH’s follow-up rise is stronger, while ZEC has the independent catalyst of the upcoming NU7 upgrade, so the single-coin rally should not be mistaken for a full altcoin market start.
Before tomorrow night’s nonfarm payroll release, I am more focused on whether BTC can hold $80,000, and whether OI and ETF inflows can rise in sync. Price is up, but positions are not following; I still view this as a rebound and am not rushing to trade a reversal. Who do you think has more sustainability in this rally: BTC capital inflow or ZEC upgrade momentum?
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $XRP
418.5 million XRP left Binance in one day, the largest single-day outflow in nine months. At 1.30, that's over 540 million USD.
The article I wrote this afternoon said 233 million XRP was moved. This time the volume doubled, and the price moved less than one point. Opened at 1.2814, touched 1.3421, now 1.306.
OKX's XRP spot trading volume in one day was 43.37 million XRP, 56.7 million USD. The outflow from Binance was more than nine times that. Perpetual positions are 79.4 million XRP, 104 million, about 1 million less than at 17:00.
At 20:00, the 1H candle dropped to 1.2997, 14.74 million USD, the previous candle was 4.04 million. More than three times. One hour later, it shrank to 6.39 million.
The fee rate is exactly 0.01%, the benchmark, zero premium. I don't interpret this number as bullish. Withdrawals can be self-custody or placing sell orders on other exchanges. I'll watch for deposits—if it really dumps with volume, I'll admit I was wrong.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $SNDK
That JPMorgan report says DRAM/NAND supply and demand remain tight, and fundamentals can stay strong until 2028. After reading it, I glanced at the market, 960.1—the lowest point today—appeared exactly at the 20:00 candle.
Qualcomm fell 12% pre-market. This sector is irrational today. The SNDK token dropped 11% in 24h from 1092.7, with the intraday high of 1122.9 being yesterday's.
At 20:00 on this 1H candle, 194,500 contracts were traded, worth $190 million. The previous candle had only 21,400 contracts. Nine times more. It was smashed down to 960.1, closing at 971.3.
The strange thing is the open interest. 156,800 contracts, $153 million, over 10,000 more than when I checked at 18:00. The fee rate is 0.0512%, five times the benchmark. Bulls are absorbing below, even paying money to do so.
The report is about 2028, but the fee rate settles every eight hours. I trust the latter. To recover, we need to watch the underlying stock quotes after the US market opens at 22:30, not the press release.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #Sony Financial Report Forecast: How is the performance of gaming and music businesses?
#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic
*Why YES:*
Gaming G&NS ¥771B +28% YoY, MAU 219M +3%, playtime +1%, PS Plus shift to higher tier. Music ¥600B+ est — KPop Demon Hunters streaming + 25% streaming growth. Imaging sensor pricing. Tariff loss cut ¥70B→¥50B. ¥100B buyback + FY Op +¥100B raise. 7 of 8 EPS beats.
*Valuation:* ¥4,500, mcap ¥24T, -23% off ¥4,776 high. PT cut ¥5,100→¥4,700 but Buy stays. Beat rate 50% last Total liquidation volume is 740 million, with long positions at 250 million and short positions at 490 million!
$BTC price surged from 76,000 to around 80,500! This caused an increase in total short position liquidations!
The midterm elections concluded, combined with the release of the small non-farm payroll data, triggering this wave of sentiment release in the $BTC market!
#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% BTC review, looking at the 4-hour chart it's very clear:
If volume increases and it stabilizes above 82000, the target above is directly in the 84000–84800 range.
Conversely, if it gets stuck and pressured down from last night's high at 82000, then this high is very likely the starting point of a new round of harvesting.
Personally, I lean towards a downward move for harvesting. Two reasons:
First, liquidity is insufficient going up, but below 79000 there's a large pile of longs, all like explosives waiting to be triggered;
Second, the technicals have already broken down, now it's just a pullback near the starting point of the rise, whether it can attract buyers to enter is still uncertain.
Brothers holding short positions, take note: once it breaks through 82000 directly, you must stop loss if needed, there is still over two thousand points of room upwards, it could hit 84000-84800.
If your stop loss gets triggered, don't panic; wait for the price to reach the 84000–84800 resistance zone, then you can look for another chance to short again. BITCOIN CASH GAINS 2.46% AGAINST THE MARKET TREND
$BCH is trading around $288.55, making it one of the stronger performers in the latest snapshot.
While most major coins are under pressure, Bitcoin Cash is moving higher and showing clear relative strength.
The next test is whether buyers can hold the gains and maintain momentum rather than allowing the move to fade.Will CORE go to zero? After reading this, you might not be able to sleep
The once-glorious BTCFi star project CORE has seen its price nearly hit rock bottom, causing many holders sleepless nights. The most pressing question: Is there a possibility it will go to zero?
❌ Risks piling up
First, the token has been continuously released for 81 years, with a constant influx of new supply creating long-term selling pressure. The original burn mechanism was adjusted, and the deflation expectation failed. The buyback plan outlined by the project team has yet to be supported by sufficient ecological revenue, making it a long-term promise rather than a contractually enforced obligation.
Second, competition in the sector is fierce. Babylon and Merlin continue to compete for BTCFi funds and users, while CORE itself has centralized validation nodes, leading to ongoing decentralization controversies.
Third, liquidity continues to thin out, with some trading platforms delisting trading pairs. Large sell-offs cause significant slippage, and if market confidence collapses, liquidity exhaustion is a very real risk.
🎯 Two scenarios
The probability of an immediate zero in the short term is low; the public chain can still operate normally. However, if the ecosystem remains dormant long-term and buying interest keeps fading, the token gradually faces liquidity death and the price approaching zero is a risk that cannot be ignored.
💡 Takeaway
A running chain ≠ a safe coin; narratives can never replace token economics and real cash flow. For projects heavily invested in narratives, it’s essential to plan your exit strategy in advance and avoid passively holding on to the end.From "BTCFi Leader" to Near Zero, CORE Took Only Two Years
Once launched with the aura of a BTCFi leader and highly anticipated by the market, the token price has plummeted over 99% in just two years, leaving countless retail investors who bought at high prices deeply trapped.
❌ Root Cause of the Collapse
The most fatal issue is the 81-year token release schedule, with a continuous influx of new tokens relentlessly dumping on the market. The originally planned burn mechanism was adjusted, and the deflation expectation failed; the project's proposed ecosystem profit buyback is not a rigid contract mechanism, and on-chain Gas revenue is minimal, making it difficult to offset inflation pressure. Additionally, competition from rival projects, decentralization controversies, and exchanges delisting the token have caused a liquidity crisis, with multiple negative factors resonating.
🎯 A Point Worth Reflecting On
The public chain still produces blocks and operates normally, the chain is alive, but the token has nearly collapsed. Many investors are attracted by the grand narrative of the Bitcoin ecosystem, overlooking that the token economic model is the fundamental logic determining the token price.
💡 Takeaway
When speculating on narrative-driven projects, you must see through the packaging and focus on three key indicators: inflation cycle, value capture ability, and liquidity. Do not pay a high price just for a beautiful story. I've always heard that miners are the most steadfast holders of Bitcoin, not selling even when it drops. After reading this round of financial reports, that statement needs to be revised.
Keel sold all 2,520 coins in Q3, pocketing $192 million, and said they will sell as much as they mine in the future, using the money to build AI data centers. Core Scientific is even more straightforward: mining revenue dropped 79%, with custody revenue at $215.4 million.
For the same amount of electricity, renting it out to AI makes money faster and you don't have to worry about $BTC price fluctuations. So who would still want to bet on coin prices? Therefore, that 43.12 million liquidation in one hour, with long positions accounting for 42.17 million, doesn't surprise me much.At 4:39 AM, Nasdaq approved the staking version of the $INJ ETF by Canary for listing (tentatively named INJC): at least 90% of INJ holdings must be staked, with an annual fee of 1.10%.
$INJ rose from 7.695 to 8.269, up 7.45% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 7.596 and a high of 8.591, a volatility of 13.1%.
But these three numbers don’t add up today.
1. It rose 7.5%, but holdings dropped from $5.5 million to $5.12 million, down 7%. No leveraged money came in.
2. On November 5 at 08:00, the funding rate was -0.0058%, meaning shorts were paying longs; now it’s back to +0.00447% per 8 hours. A $10,000 long position pays $1.34 per day, annualized at 4.9%. This pressure is forced, not from longs voluntarily increasing their positions.
3. Perpetual contract 24-hour volume is $33.5 million, spot volume is 2.748 million tokens ≈ $22.73 million, ratio 1.47x — previously it was 1.41x in the prior 24 hours. There is real money in the buy orders.
Unfortunately, ETF money hasn’t arrived yet: what was approved is the listing qualification, not the issuance; the $15 million seed capital comes from the Injective Foundation, real incremental buying will wait until the fund launches.
Order book buy side has 3.19 million across 20 levels, sell side 1.15 million.
Will you position yourself before it launches, or wait until this short squeeze finishes before entering? $INJ CORE zero countdown? Don't be fooled by the "Bitcoin ecosystem"
Many investors are attracted by CORE's BTCFi and Bitcoin ecosystem narrative, but beneath the glamorous story lies unavoidable critical flaws.
❌ Narrative trap: Tying to Bitcoin is just a marketing selling point; the token itself lacks a reliable mechanism to capture Bitcoin ecosystem benefits. Tokens are continuously released over 81 years, causing long-term inflationary pressure, while on-chain Gas revenue is minimal. The original burn mechanism was adjusted, and the project's proposed buyback plan is not a contractually rigid rule.
🎯 Harsh reality: Competitors like Babylon and Merlin continuously divert funds. CORE's decentralization is controversial with only 21 validator nodes. Liquidity keeps shrinking, and some exchanges have successively delisted trading pairs, further amplifying exit slippage risks.
💡 Insight: Don't blindly trust grand narratives like the "Bitcoin ecosystem." A chain can operate normally without the token having value support. When investing, you must see through promotional slogans and carefully examine tokenomics, real income, and liquidity indicators. Mining companies' financial reports are turning into statements of "I am no longer betting on Bitcoin."
Keel sold 2,520 $BTC in Q3, exchanging them for $192 million, of which 2,261 were long-held inventory, leaving almost zero on the books at the end of the quarter. It also clearly stated that newly mined coins will be sold daily going forward, with the money invested in AI data centers. This is not a reduction in holdings, but a role rewrite.
Core Scientific quantified the results: mining revenue for the same quarter was about $12.3 million, down about 79% year-over-year, with a gross loss of about $7.5 million; AI hosting revenue was about $215.4 million, with total revenue around $233 million, up about 187% year-over-year. The profit comes from renting machine cabinets, not mining coins.
MARA went further, obtaining FERC approval to acquire Long Ridge Energy & Power, securing about 505 megawatts of power generation and over 1,600 acres of land, preparing energy for AI. Three mining companies, one direction: treating watts as the core asset and downgrading $BTC from a reserve asset to a readily sellable financing tool.
Mechanically, the supply duration of $BTC has been shortened. Previously, when miners would liquidate inventory was unpredictable, causing sudden selling pressure; now it has become a fixed daily selling line, modelable but permanent.
Worth pondering: when miners no longer "hold together and don't sell," who will provide the bottom support in the future? Microsoft hits a new high, while IREN and Hut 8 are falling, both betting on AI—why is the money only flowing one way?
On 11/4, US tech stocks diverged: major cloud providers strengthened, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined, and data center stocks came under pressure. The discussion in the Orbit topic is that after the midterm elections, the market is re-evaluating the policy outlook for AI data centers. If new construction is restricted, large companies with power and data halls will actually benefit.
But the money hasn't decreased. Microsoft and Meta just jointly issued $40 billion in bonds. According to Gangtise's summary of Zhejiang merchants' internet sector, the four major cloud providers' capital expenditures in Q3 were about $208.7 billion, up about 84% year-over-year.
What I find most interesting is Bitcoin mining companies that have power and space, converting mining computing power into AI rentals to earn rent—this is truly a money-making business. But frankly, it still depends on whether GPUs can be delivered and contracts signed; just telling stories is useless.
IREN reports earnings after the US East close on 11/5, Beijing time early morning 11/6. I will be watching three things:
1. GPU delivery progress
2. AI cloud revenue
3. How capital expenditures are financed
Mining companies switching to selling computing power—do you think this is a new opportunity or a new burden? 🤔
Volatility is high; this is just my opinion, judge for yourselves.
#USAIStockSectorDivergence: Cloud providers strengthen, data center stocks under pressure #IRENMiningCompanyTransitionToAICloudServices, GPU delivery progress to be revealed #AI Giants Financing Watch: Microsoft, Meta jointly issue $40 billion in bonds Capital Flow: Short Squeeze vs ETF Outflows, Divergence Deepening
The "engine" of the rebound is short liquidation, not active buying. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $822 million, with short liquidations accounting for $511 million, or 62%; BTC short liquidations were $308 million (76%). For every price increment, passive buy orders from short stop-losses increase, a typical stampede.
However, the funding rate has "betrayed": platforms like Coinglass calculate the 8-hour average funding rate for Bitcoin across the network at about -0.0044%, a nine-month low. The short squeeze pushed the price up, but leveraged longs have not regained pricing power—the surviving shorts are paying to hold their positions. Historically, when funding rates turn negative and concentrated short liquidations occur simultaneously, it often corresponds to short-term extreme sentiment zones.
ETF outflows over three days totaled $1.16 billion; although the outflow pace is slowing, this buying channel is temporarily disconnected. Meanwhile, on-chain whale spot holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025—but BTC whale positions on Hyperliquid have turned net short, and a whale sold 1,312 BTC to swap into ETH. The "spot accumulation, contract short" structure indicates large funds are hedging rather than making unilateral bets.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Today's live summary
#Bitcoin The dip near 75,000 may have completed a liquidity washout. Currently, it is still an adjustment phase in the bear-to-bull transition. BTC still has a chance to hit 100,000 by the end of the year, but a true right-side breakout still needs confirmation.
Although BTC has rebounded strongly, the descending channel has not yet been fully confirmed as broken, and the daily strategy has not yet generated a new buy signal.
Take positions on the left side first, try low leverage for trial and error, confirm a breakout between 81,000-82,000, then consider adding positions on the right side.
#ETH There are noteworthy new changes.
Previously, ETH was consistently weaker than BTC, but after this drop, a relatively obvious daily reversal candlestick pattern has appeared.
The overall direction of the crypto market is upward, but how it moves in between, I do not know. Stay patient and remain in the market waiting for the main bull wave to start. - In the range of $20,000 to $85,000, BTC has been stuck for several days, like a breath caught in the throat, unable to go up or down. What do you think the market is really betting on now? It's not the non-farm payrolls themselves, but whether the non-farm data can reignite expectations for rate cuts. The October employment data hasn't been released yet on Friday, but the market has already moved ahead. BTC bounced back from a low of $75,000 to above $80,000, with support holding for now, but the resistance wall between $82,000 and $85,000 is very clear, and every time it approaches, it gets pushed back. On the ETH side, it's actually more energetic, directly surging above $2,400, with a short-term recovery that is noticeably smoother than BTC's. This detail is worth pondering because usually at times like this, funds prefer to touch more elastic assets, indicating that sentiment is not as defensive as imagined. My own feeling is that the market has been holding its breath these past two days. Before the data lands, no one wants to reveal their hand first. Weak employment means rising rate cut expectations, which would ease risk appetite, and high-beta assets like crypto tend to benefit first; strong employment means rate pressure returns, and the short term will take a hit again. But what is really priced in advance is the fact that "the direction of rate cuts still exists," not the absolute value of any single data point. In other words, the market is trading expectations, not facts. Looking one layer deeper, if after the data ETH continues to outperform BTC, altcoins may tentatively become active, and risk appetite will slowly shift from defense to offense; but if ETH surges then falls back and BTC can't hold $80,000, then this rebound looks more like an emotional repair rather than a trend reversal, and altcoins... BTC quickly dropped, and with the short-term support at 80000 broken, the lowest point has already dipped to 79482 on the first digit line.
The morning strategy suggested shorting on a reversal if the level was not broken. Currently, the BTC short position at 80759 has safely exited, securing over a thousand points of space while also taking profit at 2848 oil in Luodai.
$BTC $ETH #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
The Q3 earnings report won't bring surprises, only another slap: revenue around $890 million, still down year-over-year, nearly $1 billion in losses, the peak season propped up solely by the COVID vaccine, while flu/RSV still can't get off the ground. Is this optimism? This is like picking shells at low tide. Even more infuriating is the market sentiment: October's positive mRNA-4157 data—42% reduction in relapse mortality risk—actually triggered a nearly 26% single-day stock plunge, wiping out $24 billion. Wall Street wants a cure, not data; speculative capital first inflates expectations to the sky, then crushes retail investors with "all good news priced in." The vaccine core business is slowly bleeding due to political hostility and demand collapse, the CEO has already said they dare not invest in new vaccine phase 3 trials; yet the oncology narrative carries a valuation it cannot support. The more honest the Q3 numbers, the more disgusting the whole farce: science punished by politics, value exhausted by sentiment, the earnings report is just a mirror revealing the truth. Pessimistic about fundamentals, absurd about sentiment—what's infuriating is that neither can save those who believe in science. $xSNDK/USDT Market Update
$xSNDK rebounded from an old low of $962.1 (24h low) before rallying to a powerful peak of $1,906.1, and trades at $972.3 after a -5.70% daily change and a -24.18% change over 7 days.
Short-Term: Watch support near $962.1 (24h low). Holding this level can spark a retest of $xSNDK 1,124.2 (24h high).
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, $xSNDK could target $1,200.00+. If support fails, it may pull back to $900.00.
Will $xSNDK break its peak or drop? Comment below! 🚨 Bitcoin's rebound faces a reality check: Will $79,000 become the next critical battle?
Bitcoin's recent rebound has reignited market hopes, but the market also reminds us: a true recovery is never a straight upward path.
BTC bounced from $80,351 to $82,824, then encountered resistance and fell back near $79,718. Although the price briefly broke above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, this pullback is testing the real strength of the rebound.
📊 Next, these key levels deserve attention:
$81,300–$82,000: Important resistance zone with persistent selling pressure.
$80,000: A psychological barrier Bitcoin has struggled to hold steadily.
$79,000: If selling pressure continues to increase, this will be the next critical support area.
Market momentum is cooling down. The daily RSI has risen back near 43, but no strong bullish trend has been confirmed yet.
The real question is: Is this just a healthy pullback before the next rally, or is Bitcoin losing its rebound momentum?
Sometimes, what really matters is not the rise itself, but how the market handles the pullback.
Stay patient, watch the key price levels, and let Bitcoin itself reveal the next direction.👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #ZEC #CryptoMarket #BitcoinAnalysis
#DailyOrbit The SOL fee rate is positive, but the 7-day rate is -7.2%
Legzi just brought the clothes he had hung out back inside and casually checked the market. $SOL is currently at 95.32 USDT, up 2.7% in 24h.
Decrypt has a headline saying Samsung Wallet added USDC on Solana. The headline didn’t mention the price, so Legzi only remembered that part, nothing else.
Trading volume is 92.73 million USDT, ranking 3rd, which is a considerable amount.
7-day is -7.2%, so it’s still down this week. Contract fee rate +0.0069%, longs are paying shorts.
$BTC 24h +1.7%, $ETH 24h +3.0%. All three coins are up today, ranked from highest to lowest gains: ETH, SOL, BTC.
Legzi set a price alert today at the 24h high of 98.16 USDT. The 7-day is still negative, so just looking at today alone, Legzi won’t draw conclusions, so only set this alert with no other actions. Intel has dropped below $57 🥶
I had been watching Intel for a while, and luckily I didn’t rush to add more shares at that time.
Many might have forgotten that in August 2025, the U.S. government reached a shareholding agreement with Intel, acquiring nearly 10% equity at about $20.47 per share, with a total investment of approximately $8.9 billion.
However, it’s important to note that this deal mainly converted previous government subsidies into equity, rather than the U.S. government directly spending $8.9 billion on the market to buy shares, so it can’t be fully compared to the cost basis of ordinary investors.
But this matter is still worth considering.
At $57, the stock price is already about 2.8 times the government’s agreed entry price.
Even if it falls to $40, it would still be about 95% higher than $20.47.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Intel’s fair stock price is only $20, nor does it mean the price will definitely drop to $40.
For me, Intel’s wafer foundry business, capital expenditures, and future profitability still have many aspects that need observation.
Until these uncertainties are fully resolved, I’m reluctant to pay too high a price based on future growth expectations.
So if I really want to buy the dip, I would personally wait until around $40 to reassess whether it’s worth gradually building a position.
$BTC $ETH
$INTC 今晚星球热议榜前三里，有两份财报话题挨在一起：Circle 话题 448.72万浏览、1,054 篇帖子，AMD 话题 204.72万浏览、688 篇帖子。话题名里都有「超预期」三个字，股价反应却是一涨一跌——AMD 涨 1.37%，Circle 跌 3.77%。同一个词，两种反应，这课值得对照着看。 先看 AMD。话题名写得完整：数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期。也就是说，超的不只这一季的数字，还有下一季的指引。数据中心收入近翻倍，是这一季的成绩；指引超预期，是下一季的预期被抬高了。两样都超，股价涨 1.37%，逻辑是顺的。 再看 Circle。话题名同样写得完整：Q3 营收超预期，USDC 链上交易量增长 49%。超的是营收和链上交易量，股价却跌了 3.77%。话题名里没有写指引，也没有写下一季的预期。我不猜它跌的原因——没有核实到的原因，写出来就是编。但对照本身已经够了：只看「超预期」三个字，是看不出股价方向的。 对照到这里，「超预期」至少有两种读法。第一种，超的是哪一项：这一季的数字，还是下一季的指引，还是某个业务线的收入，两者不在同一层。第二种，超的是谁的预期：分析师的The US job market is quite resilient 😂
The newly announced weekly initial jobless claims were 189,000, lower than the expected 196,000, further falling close to historic lows.
But there's an interesting detail: while initial claims are decreasing, continuing claims have risen to 1.718 million 😯
This indicates that US companies are still reluctant to conduct large-scale layoffs, but for those already unemployed, finding a new job doesn't seem that easy; this low hiring and low layoff situation has persisted for quite some time.
For the Federal Reserve, the job market hasn't shown obvious deterioration for now, so there's naturally less urgency to stimulate employment through easing policies.
For risk assets like $BTC, this data is slightly bearish in the short term, but I think the impact should be limited, since there's a more important nonfarm payroll report tomorrow night; tonight's initial claims are more like an appetizer.
What truly determines the market's next pricing move is whether tomorrow night's nonfarm payrolls can confirm the job market's resilience.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ @OKX星球 #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元
The Democrats took both chambers, and Brent crude dropped 8.67% on Wednesday to close at 94.62, breaking below 95 intraday, and continued to slide to 93.82 on Thursday. The logic is straightforward: the Republicans lost due to two main issues, which even Vance admitted—the war was the primary cause, and voters holding gas coupons voted as gasoline prices rose from over three dollars to 4.1 dollars. The Democrats hold the purse strings, Schumer declared an end to the Iran war, and the White House will find it harder to get war funding.
But political pressure does not equal a peace agreement. What fell was the risk premium, not the end of the war. Hormuz crude oil exports have recovered to 102% of pre-war levels, but refined product exports are only about a normal 30%, and diesel inventories are the lowest since 2003; signing an agreement won't make up for that. Trump is still adding new sanctions, and Iran's Supreme Leader also said that changing Congress won't change hostility.
So Brent breaking below 95 is trading on "no full-scale war," not "peace has arrived." Eurasia Group warns that if the situation escalates again, prices could rebound to 110 to 125.