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Once the market stabilizes, public chains take the lead.
$SOL is back to $96, up 0.9% intraday;
$XRP is at 1.26, up 1.5%;
$LINK is the star today, rising 8.1% to $11.48. The logic behind LINK remains the same: the oracle avoids exchange risk exposure, so if a CEX runs into trouble, the valuation of on-chain data infrastructure is actually re-evaluated.
This week, LINK only dropped 0.4%, making it one of the most resilient among mainstream coins, much better than BTC’s -4% and SOL’s -5.6%.
Interestingly, SOL’s 5.6% drop this week is still in recovery, indicating that funds haven’t truly returned yet; currently, it’s more of a passive stop to the decline rather than active buying.A $5,000 plunge in one day! Bitcoin's price is falling, but the cost-effectiveness of long-term investment may be quietly improving!
Brother Murphy's on-chain chart is, in my opinion, very worth serious study!
On October 25, $BTC was around $80,000, with a PSIP of 64%; after the Binance security incident, PSIP further dropped to 61%, entering the 55%–65% bull-bear transition zone shown in the chart. What’s even more worth pondering is that during the US banking crisis in March 2023, PSIP fell to 58%, after which BTC experienced a clear recovery rally.
I believe the truly important thing is not whether history will repeat itself, but the underlying chip logic. A decline in PSIP means fewer profitable chips and increased market pressure, but it may also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of long-term allocation is improving. Of course, 61% is not an absolute bottom, and undervaluation does not mean the market will immediately rebound.
I still insist that BTC has entered the early stage of a bull market; the current situation looks more like a chip redistribution caused by external shocks. What really needs to be tested next is whether the panic selling pressure can be absorbed by sustained spot demand.
Bull markets are often not born when everyone is cheering, but gradually complete chip exchanges amid panic and doubt!Is SanDisk's stock split a good thing or a bad thing?
From a long-term perspective, current profits and gross margins remain strong, holding AI long-term contract orders, while launching a stock split plus buyback, with solid cash flow. The business itself has no major issues; growth is just slowing down, not a decline in performance.
For long-term investors, liquidity improves after the stock split. If storage prices remain high and AI data center orders continue to materialize, there is a chance for price recovery; but the risk lies in: original manufacturers expanding production, NAND supply increasing, ending the price hike cycle, which will lower the profit ceiling.
Therefore, this sharp drop is not due to fundamental problems but the realization of positive news: although this period's performance exceeded expectations, the NAND flash price increase rate has slowed, and the next quarter's guidance failed to meet market optimism, leading investors to take profits.
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% $XLM This trend really feels like a nightmare to me.
Tying it to MetaMask's default network is such a big deal, yet it only moved 1.7% in 24 hours, with volume just 70% of usual. It's not that no one is chasing the pump, it's that no one is taking the buy at all.
The SWIFT business and cross-border payments have been the same old story for nearly ten years, told longer than anyone else, and the market reaction is like this.
If you really believe this logic, then this price actually means the previous players haven't entered yet; if you're just after a short-term spike, then don't fool yourself—rallies without volume won't hold through the weekend, and you'll wake up back to square one. $XLM #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple’s new CEO, Ternus, has received the first performance report for the iPhone 18. This time, the strategy is very straightforward, focusing on the Pro high-end model and foldable screen, raising the average product price, and prioritizing profit protection.
The initial launch phase looks fairly good in terms of hype, but there are reports from the supply chain about adjustments in orders for some models, causing the market to start doubting whether consumers can continue to accept this high price. Gold prices are falling, Bitcoin prices are falling, and stock prices are also falling. What exactly is happening?
This may not just be a price correction, but a liquidity shock. $XAU $BTC
When margin pressure increases, investors are forced to sell the most liquid assets to raise funds. At this time, regardless of the asset type, gold, Bitcoin, or stocks may be sold off.
There are two catalysts involved:
- Technology:
Poor performance and below-expectation outlooks have led to a sharp sell-off in tech stocks.
- Cryptocurrency:
Binance's security incident has intensified anxiety, triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations.
What to watch next is not only the prices of Bitcoin or gold but also U.S. Treasury yields and the potential recovery of the cryptocurrency market.
If liquidation pressure eases, the market may recover as selling pressure gradually subsides. However, if macroeconomic risks continue to worsen, the sell-off could last longer.Storage can't hold up either, where is the left-side bottom-fishing window?
The pre-market atmosphere remains grim. The storage sector, propped up by SK Hynix for a day, still fell further, the cover was lifted. Google has returned to near its March lows, Micron and SanDisk are testing July support, next to watch are the midterm election results and the evolution of the war. This really made me laugh 😹😹😹 I was already pushing for the 100u level playing $SNDK, but then a wallet got lost? #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
The market pricing has already overwhelmingly bet on the Democrats sweeping both chambers, with a 70% probability fully priced in.
If in the end the Democrats do take both chambers, it would be a positive realization, likely leading to a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario. After the positive news is realized, funds might take the opportunity to exit, causing$ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
The entire market is deleveraging indiscriminately! With the non-farm payroll test imminent, is bottom-fishing just catching a falling knife?
Current price is $2249.99, fluctuating narrowly intraday. After the sharp drop, short-term moving averages still show a bearish alignment, and the overall weak trend remains unchanged. The $2262 level is the 24-hour strong/weak dividing line; only a volume-backed hold above this level allows room for recovery. If it breaks below the recent low effectively and the rebound is weak, the downward channel will further open.
Don't be misled by the "risk aversion divergence" narrative. The essence of this round of decline is the high-level drainage of U.S. Treasury bonds, causing synchronized deleveraging across the entire market. In a high-interest environment, capital clusters to earn risk-free returns, leading to sell-offs across gold, semiconductors, and cryptocurrencies alike. There is fundamentally no independent risk-hedging logic. ETH has higher elasticity, compounded by continuous ETF outflows and no new explosive points in its ecosystem, resulting in a decline significantly greater than BTC. Blind bottom-fishing is very likely to get trapped.
The November 6 non-farm payroll data is the next key node. Don't simply apply the formula "worse employment, higher coin price":
If the data is weak, leading to a drop in rate hike expectations, and the coin price can hold the low point at data release, then the rebound is credible;
If employment weakens sharply causing recession fears and a comprehensive risk appetite contraction, ETH will instead be pressured along with the broader market.
Before the data release, watch more and act less. Use $2262 as the observation point; consider light trial positions only after holding above it. If it breaks the previous low and the rebound is weak, abandon short-term recovery ideas and wait for deleveraging to fully clear before proceeding. #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
The new CEO Ternus faces his first major test, with the Q3 earnings report to be released after the market closes on November 2, and the iPhone 18 series serving as the core touchstone.
Apple has taken a differentiated AI path: integrating Google overseas and partnering with Qianwen domestically, avoiding heavy in-house R&D spending, thus sidestepping the cash flow drain of the computing power arms race, resulting in relatively solid profitability. However, pressures are also clear: upstream storage components continue to rise in price squeezing profits, the global smartphone market is weak combined with competition from domestic flagship models, some channels have already shown price loosening, making sales growth unlikely to exceed expectations.
Market sentiment is cautious: Apple's market value has just surpassed Nvidia to reclaim the global number one spot, but under the broader context of the Nasdaq's continuous pullback, tech stocks overall are under pressure. The market bets on a 56% chance of a post-earnings decline, generally believing that even if performance meets expectations, it is hard to reverse the trend of benefits being fully priced in.
For the new leader, the initial sales enthusiasm is just the starting point; the real test lies in whether he can maintain the high-end base and profit levels amid rising costs and the AI race industry cycle.
$AAPL $xAAPL Liquidation Pain Point Sniper: ETH Short Squeeze Imminent, ZEC Hanging Below
Core Logic: The market is brewing a wave of "upward hunting" with short positions far more crowded than longs, making the main force's pump to trigger short squeezes extremely cost-effective
1. ETH (2240): Short Target
Signal: Only 1.08% above (2264) there is a huge short order backlog of 25.6 million U
Interpretation: This is a typical "bear trap" structure. The main force only needs a slight pump to trigger a chain of liquidations. A short-term upward spike is very likely, and 2264 is a critical battleground
2. HYPE (87.24): Lightest Selling Pressure
Signal: Very few long stop-loss orders below (only 500,000 U), ample space above
Interpretation: Minimal downward resistance, well-locked chips. As long as the overall market doesn't crash, it is the easiest candidate to see an independent upward trend.
3. ZEC (1265): Hanging Below
Signal: 1.7 million U long orders pending liquidation 5.14% below, with volume larger than short orders above
Interpretation: The only "hidden risk" asset. If the trend weakens, the temptation to dump downward to gain liquidity is greater than moving up, watch out for a pullback to 1203
Operation Strategy:
Keep a close eye on ETH's $2264 breakout, which is the starting gun for a short-term surge; HYPE is suitable for holding and waiting for a rise; ZEC requires defensive attention
$ETH $BTC $ZEC Are hackers just scapegoats? Even if that $6 billion theft of $BTC hadn't happened, this wave of everyone being trapped is bound to collapse sooner or later!
Last night saw an epic crash in the crypto world. Besides the black swan event of Binance losing nearly $6 billion triggering panic, the chip distribution reveals a deeper crisis.
Currently, only 4.03% of BTC holders are in profit, meaning 96% of positions are underwater, with an average cost as high as 78,967. The 78,000-81,000 range is piled with a huge amount of red trapped positions. This means massive resistance above; once the price rebounds, these positions will rush to sell to break even, creating huge selling pressure.
Simply put, this is a triple blow of a black swan crash, everyone trapped, and heavy selling pressure on rebounds. Until this heavy trapped position is digested, any rebound could be a last-ditch escape wave. Do not blindly bottom-fish.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC's book profits rebound sharply Predicted Meme Coin: IRYS$IRYS
Speculation Index: 6🌟 Growth Index: 1🌟
Token Analysis: This token surged more than twentyfold a few days ago, attracting plenty of attention then. Its current position still allows for small-scale long positions to speculate on a rebound. The price is not expensive now, having dropped over 90% from its peak. Actually, the best cost-performance entry would be after another major crash.
Token Outlook: IRYS's fundamentals are "team, sector, and funding," but the token's current state is "high valuation, low circulation, large unlocks, and extreme volatility." The medium to long-term price likely depends on two factors: first, whether real storage and usage volume on the mainnet can pick up; second, whether the unlocking period can be absorbed by demand. If you want to follow it, it's recommended to monitor on-chain usage data and unlock announcements, and avoid chasing short-term spikes or crashes. 恐慌刚过，市场情绪却突然一边倒：$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 的合约买盘借贷同步放量，而做空借贷低得几乎可以忽略。这不是普通反弹，而是一场押注“复苏”的集体下注。 先看硬数据。$BTC 买入借贷1496.51枚，卖空借贷仅71.52枚；$ETH 买入借贷1.73万枚，卖空借贷645.37枚；$SOL 买入借贷11.54万枚，卖空借贷3147.39枚。三组数字指向同一件事：多头正在借钱进场，空头几乎缺席。杠杆的方向，已经写在了账本上。 很多人把这解读为“底部确认”。但真正值得警惕的恰恰是这种一致性。当所有人都觉得位置舒服、开始提前布局复苏，市场的方向就被过度共识化，而共识越强，短期波动的概率反而越高。复苏阶段看起来诱人，实则最容易出现“洗盘式”回撤，把追多的杠杆先清一遍。 换个角度看，这组数据也暴露了市场结构的脆弱：买盘借贷持续增加，意味着多头仓位靠借来的钱支撑；卖空借贷极低，意味着空头没有足够的燃料去推动逼空。换句话说，上涨缺乏空头回补的助推，下跌却有多头平仓的连锁反应。这是一个不对称的杠杆结构，方向一旦反转，速度会很快。 我的判断是：当前更像“情绪修复”而非“趋势反转”。$BTC 的Don't be fooled by nonsense like "risk-off divergence." The truth is that U.S. Treasuries are hemorrhaging cash, and the entire market is indiscriminately deleveraging.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin, dropping below 77,000. Don't keep fooling yourself with the idea of digital gold; under high interest pressure, it's a high-risk asset. When Wall Street runs short on cash, it's the first to get hammered. The overhead resistance is heavy, and ETFs are still seeing massive outflows. Holding long-term spot is fine, but short-term chasing rebounds is pure suicide.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, falling even worse, always the hopeless follower. The ecosystem has no new breakout points and no support. When the market softens, it crashes the hardest. Catching a falling knife now is a surefire way to become a big loser.
Look at $XAUT, gold, plunging more than three points. Do you think the risk-off logic is dead? Wrong. Institutions are using gold as an ATM to cover margin holes in tech stocks and crypto. There are too many profit-taking positions from earlier, and liquidity squeezes make no sense. Central bank buying at the base level continues, but don’t rush to bottom-fish before the stampede ends.
Also, look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging seven points, brutally cutting valuations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hitting nearly 5%, and bond prices are surging. This is the essence: all the money is fleeing to risk-free interest. Who still wants to play with high-risk tech stocks and crypto? In a high-interest environment, cash is king. Don’t think a big drop means cheap; the market is killing greedy retail investors. Control your hands and don’t be a stepping stone for Wall Street big shots. Wait until this deleveraging wave is completely cleared before making a move. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 It's Saturday night this week, is everyone out partying and getting ready to relax? But weekend liquidity is the worst, the market looks dead calm, yet behind the scenes, everyone is holding back big moves! Looking at the contract data, be cautious and definitely avoid heavy positions overnight.
$BTC is currently around 77400, with a 4-hour long-short ratio of 2.74. There's little volume on Saturday; the main players are just drawing gates and wasting time here. There's heavy selling pressure at 78000 above and support orders at 76000 below, both bulls and bears are probing.
Looking at $ETH now at 2247, with a long-short ratio of 2.69, it still follows BTC, but if you look closely at its funding rate, it occasionally turns negative, indicating the bulls lack confidence. As soon as the market softens a bit, it will run faster than anyone else. Don't expect it to lead the charge.
Finally, $SOL is at 95.9, with a 4-hour long-short ratio soaring to 3.71. This data is nerve-wracking; it's all bulls stubbornly holding and adding positions above 95. With such heavy load, if the market shakes even slightly, the main players will definitely target SOL, with a high chance of a downward spike to shake out long positions!
Summary: Weekend late-night liquidity is the worst, and the main players love to launch surprise attacks. Don't lose control just because the market hasn't dropped; beware of sudden gate drawing at midnight.
This Saturday night, are you holding positions overnight or sleeping with an empty book? Do you think Sunday will start with a rebound to lure longs or a direct dump to shake out the bulls?
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 DOGE to hit $0.10 by year-end: 25% rise in two months, effort alone isn't enough, the storyline matters
My judgment is straightforward: $0.10 is not the bull-bear switch for DOGE, but the most direct emotional threshold to close out 2026. If it closes above this by year-end, the whole year can barely be defined as a recovery after a weak consolidation; if it closes below $0.08, the label of a "complete bear market year" basically can't be removed.
Let's do a simple calculation. $DOGE needs to rise 25% from $0.08 to $0.10. This magnitude over two months is not a task that can be done with a casual bounce; it requires capital to reprice. Based on an approximate 25% intra-year drawdown, if it can close near $0.10 at year-end, the annual decline will narrow to about 6%. In other words, the significance of $0.10 is not to make holders proud, but to revise the annual report card from "took a hard hit" to "a wasted year, but at least didn't collapse."
Catalysts are certainly important, but I divide them into igniters and engines. Elon Musk's endorsements and political events are igniters; they can quickly draw full attention but don't necessarily bring sustained buying. Without follow-up capital taking over, it's easy for the "hype team to clock out, and prices to clock out". So for these kinds of markets, I look at sustainability, not just how lively the news night was. #DailyOrbit 【Intel Plummets, U.S. Government's Stake Loses $12 Billion in a Single Day】
Intel $xINTC stock price plunged 28.58% in one day, marking its worst performance since the 1970s. The U.S. government’s roughly 10% stake lost $12 billion in value in a single day, while Nvidia $xNVDA holdings also evaporated by about $6 billion. Intel’s earnings guidance was quite disappointing, with Q4 revenue expected to be only $15 billion to $16 billion, well below the market’s forecast of $17.1 billion, and adjusted EPS nearly half of expectations.
Intel’s Q3 revenue actually reached $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with data center business growing 78%. The company is not without AI growth, but the revenue from AI demand is still insufficient to cover expansion costs, and the PC business was dragged down by rising memory prices. Gross margin is expected to drop from 43% to 38% in Q4, and the company even expects to fail to generate positive cash flow for the full year.
This is what the market truly fears: AI infrastructure investments are increasing, but not every company in the supply chain can convert demand into profit. Intel’s plunge reflects its own operational issues and serves as a warning to the entire chip sector. Especially after rising about 150% this year, previous valuations included too much optimism about successful transformation. Now the market is demanding performance to back up the story. The AI rally may not be over, but the phase where simply associating with AI could drive stock prices up is clearly becoming more difficult.Why not do altcoins 1. Extremely weak liquidity, a small amount of funds can leverage huge price swings The actual tradable circulating volume of the vast majority of altcoins is less than 10% of the total supply, with very shallow order book depth. A single relatively small buy or sell order can directly consume all the orders on the market, causing the price to instantly fluctuate by more than ten points. Meanwhile, a large amount of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the project team and early large holders. Their concentrated selling or pumping actions can directly trigger violent price volatility. 2. High leverage liquidations create a chain death spiral Altcoins are a gathering place for short-term speculative funds, generally with 2-5x or even higher leverage. Once the price fluctuates more than 30%, it triggers a large number of liquidations. The forced sell orders generated by liquidations further push the price down, causing more altcoin positions pledged for stablecoins to be liquidated, forming a negative feedback loop of "price drop → liquidation → further drop." In extreme cases, the daily decline can exceed 90%. 3. Imbalanced capital structure, completely dependent on crypto-native hot money Bitcoin has compliant ETFs to absorb institutional long-term funds, while altcoins almost have no compliant deposit channels. Their funding sources are only VCs and short-term retail investors within the crypto circle. Once macro risks rise, funds will immediately withdraw from high-risk altcoins first, flowing preferentially to Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets, directly causing altcoin buy orders to dry up instantly. $After such a big event, the market only dropped a little.
At first, I thought all the money would run away.
Those Bitcoin funds in the US sold 643 million in one day.
They manage a total of 981.4 billion.
Out of every hundred dollars, only seventy cents moved.
The money didn't run.
Either they haven't reacted yet, or they simply don't believe it will crash.
If it recovers next week, this matter will be over.
If it doesn't recover, that's when it really starts.
Which side are you betting on? Many people see AKE rallying and immediately shout "major reversal." To be honest, this is just a rebound.
To put it simply: during the rise, futures surged with high volume, but the spot market buying couldn't keep up, so this is a leverage-driven move; there are still batches unlocking later, and existing sell pressure remains. Without solid new funds entering, such rallies are mostly pulses—don't dive in headfirst chasing it. #US stocks and gold & silver plummet simultaneously, safe-haven capital flows diverge. Next week, US stocks are highly likely to continue a pattern of high volatility with a shaky bottom search. Multiple Wall Street institutions have already entered defense mode in advance.
🗳️ First level of contention: Midterm elections (November 3)
The Democratic Party is highly likely to take the House of Representatives, and expectations for tighter AI regulation will quickly intensify. Strengthening environmental and energy consumption reviews of data centers will directly impact capital expenditure mainstays like Alphabet and AMD. If a "blue wave landslide" occurs, tech stocks will face rapid short-term downward adjustments.
📉 Second level of contention: Nonfarm payrolls "determine interest rate fate" (November 6)
This is the core window to verify the Fed's pause on rate hikes logic. September's nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, already a significant cold surprise.
· If nonfarm payrolls weaken again: It will reinforce cooling employment, consolidate expectations for a rate hike pause, push US Treasury yields down, and benefit growth stocks.
· If data again exceeds expectations: The market will reprice a December rate hike restart, US Treasury yields will rebound, and high-valuation AI tech stocks will be directly hit.
💸 Third level of contention: AI earnings reports and valuations (throughout the week)
Next week marks the intensive Q3 earnings disclosure period. Previously, Google plunged over 12% in a single day due to capital expenditure and profit misses, sounding an alarm for the market. The market's patience with AI has run out; it is no longer "buying on growth" but demanding to see real profits and free cash flow. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that the semiconductor sector may still fall another 10%-15% before mid-November. $SNDK [Discounted for 38 consecutive days, BTC lacks US buying power]
The US market has not been willing to pay a premium to buy $BTC for 38 consecutive days. The Coinbase premium index recently dropped to -0.2434%, whereas on October 24 it was -0.1353%, showing a further widening of the discount within a week. This change is more concerning than just a continuous negative value: the US market's buying power has not only failed to recover but has continued to weaken recently.
This makes BTC's rebound somewhat awkward. The weak buying power in the US spot market represented by Coinbase means that further price increases will rely more on funds from other regions, ETFs, and the derivatives market to take over. Coinbase's institutional report on October 23 also mentioned that although there was a significant net inflow in US spot ETFs in October, the incremental funds were highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, with about $6 billion net inflow since August, while other US spot ETFs combined only about $500 million.
Additionally, the stablecoin supply has decreased by about $12.7 billion from the May peak, and CryptoQuant's statistics show a spot demand gap of approximately 76,000 BTC as of October 25 over the past 30 days. Several data points indicate the same issue: the market does not lack trading enthusiasm but lacks sustained inflows of spot US dollars.
I remain cautious on BTC in the short term. Occasional large inflows from ETFs can support the price, but they have not yet formed a sustained buying power strong enough to drive the entire US spot market.#PalantirQ3Valuation A cross-chain protocol was hit for $783,000. The amount isn't large, but the attack vector is worth a look for all holders.
zkLink was attacked on October 29. The attacker didn't break private keys or signatures; they exploited a vulnerability left by the contract itself: the verification value brought in by cross-chain messages was not cleared after use.
The process was very clean. The attacker first obtained a valid verification value through a genuine cross-chain message, then reused it within the same transaction. The contract neither cleared it nor bound it to the current call, so the reused value still counted as a valid credential. Then, leveraging relay and gateway contracts, they wrote a forged batch root into the system. After successful forgery, the rest was just execution: 1 $ETH withdrawal and 11 ERC-20 withdrawals.
What’s more concerning is the verification of batch root updates. It only checks whether the caller is the gateway, without independently verifying the batch root itself. This effectively places the security boundary on "gateway identity trustworthiness" rather than "the withdrawal is cryptographically valid."
Cross-chain bridges rarely fail due to cryptography; most fail due to state management. Residual variables, over-privileged checks, and reusable credentials are all issues from the same family.
What can be done practically: don’t let assets sit idle in the bridge. What’s worth considering is that if even the most basic cleanup like "verification values are burned after use" can be missed, then when evaluating a bridge, you should look not at how many audits it has undergone, but how simple its state machine is.#Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided Nonfarm payrolls approaching: Will BTC and ETH trade employment changes first, or rate expectations? Nonfarm data hasn't been released yet, but the market is already guessing: the worse the employment, the easier it is for crypto prices to rise? I think this time we shouldn't rush to apply formulas. In the short term, the market may trade data through rate expectations first, but if employment is weak enough to worry about the economy, BTC and ETH could also come under pressure. In the last report, new nonfarm jobs were only 29,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%; meanwhile, some Fed officials still believe tightening is needed quickly. Employment and inflation tug in both directions, making next week's data difficult to trade. After the November 6 nonfarm release, I'll first look at whether employment numbers, unemployment rate, and wages all weaken together, then see how rate futures price December. If the data is weak and rate hike expectations fall accordingly, and both coins can hold the lows at data release, a recovery is more credible. Conversely, if employment is clearly weaker than expected but BTC and ETH rebound then quickly fall back to pre-release prices, be cautious that the market is starting to worry about growth rather than simply celebrating possible policy easing. For now, note two observation points: around 78088 for BTC and 2262 for ETH, which are their respective 24-hour highs at the time of checking. If after the data the hourly chart closes above and holds on a pullback, consider light positions; if it breaks below their respective 24-hour lows and fails to recover on a rebound, abandon the short-term recovery idea. $BTC $ETH #Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard 🔥🔥🔥Reviewing three long-term positions for everyone's reference, be sure to save this🔥🔥🔥@OKXPlanet $ZEC $SOL $ETH On-chain address tracking has identified a top-tier whale account, with cumulative profits reaching $214 million. In the past seven days, net value surged again, earning $71.07 million, with a single 24-hour profit of $7.51 million. The current perpetual contract position market value is $653 million, with all positions leaning toward the short side. Its trading structure deserves in-depth analysis. The account's profit foundation relies on two major short base positions in ETH and ZEC: The ETH short was established at the 2322 price level, currently unrealized profit of $6.97 million; the ZEC short entry cost is 1478, with a floating profit of $7.61 million. Even though the market expects the ZEC block upgrade to be implemented next week, this whale has not chosen to exit. These two positions form a solid profit buffer. The portfolio also contains assets under passive pressure. The BTC short was opened at 76366, currently showing a floating loss of $2.73 million; the SOL short entered at 94.33, with a floating loss of $1.16 million. If the bulls launch a phased counterattack, these two positions will be the first to bear the impact of price pullbacks. The core highlight of this strategy comes from funding fee income. The four major coin short positions have cumulatively earned over $12 million in funding fees, continuously generating passive cash flow during the holding period. The account has sufficient safety margin, with the BTC liquidation price projected up to 135878, which is a distance from$USDT
Last month I was still pondering whether to move half of the USDT I had to USDC for stability. After reading Tether's financial report today, I'll hold off for now.
Q3 net operating profit was $1.5 billion, totaling $4.5 billion for the first nine months, matching Q2. Excess reserves doubled from $4.1 billion at the end of Q2 to nearly $8 billion, with total assets of $191.5 billion against liabilities of $183.5 billion, and U.S. Treasury holdings exceeding $130 billion.
What's interesting is the issuance volume. At 184 billion, it basically stayed flat for the first three quarters. The volume didn't increase, but the money earned more and more, all from U.S. Treasury interest and reverse repos. While others compete on exchanges and L2, it just lies back collecting Treasury interest. I casually checked OKX spot; USDT/USD quoted at 0.999, the market still shows full confidence.
They stockpile U.S. Treasuries in their vault, while I watch K-line charts late into the night. The envy is real, but the data speaks for itself.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 81688.3 short $BTC, 100x leverage, target 77458.6, floating profit +517.78%. To wrap up, just three points:
1. First, close a portion; only the amount transferred into the account counts, the number on the screen reflects the market;
2. Set the trigger line for the remaining position above the cost; too close to the current price will get shaken out by normal fluctuations;
3. Do nothing during sideways consolidation, neither add positions nor exit early.
From the trend perspective: after a zigzag decline, it enters a low-level sideways consolidation. Whether this is a continuation of the downtrend or a bottom rebound can’t be determined from the chart; we have to wait for it to develop. Here are some specific reference numbers for myself: target 78000, floating profit about 451; 79000, about 329; 80000, about 207; 81000, about 84; cost 81688.3, break-even; below 77000, about 574; 76500, about 635; 76000, about 696. For every approximate 817 increase in price, floating profit decreases by 100 points—remember this conversion well, so you won’t be dazzled by that 517 during sideways movement. Both ends have considerable elasticity, which is why I close part first and keep a small portion: closing part secures the result, keeping some preserves the possibility. If it breaks below 77000, accept more loss; if it rises above 79000, exit according to the line, not leaving the decision to a single guess. $BTC $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $UNI
Last week I said that UNI's rally had no substantial fundamentals and was purely emotional, but today I have to admit I was wrong.
Uniswap has opened the TJAR fee conversion system to all applications. Last month, this system handled over $15.3 million in swaps on its own and now covers 7 chains. Robinhood has already integrated it—their new chain directly runs Uniswap v2/v3/v4, and all token fees generated by user trades are uniformly converted into USDC and USDG through Uniswap's API for accounting.
A US stock brokerage-level platform handing over the entire fee settlement process to an on-chain protocol is unprecedented. Previously, DeFi was considered just hype, but now their chains are paying tolls to it.
UNI is currently at $6.90+, having touched a 24-hour high of 7.23 before dropping back. I won't speculate on the price, but this fee revenue line is truly materializing, unlike last year's pure governance token speculation.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 ⚠️ This weekend's slight rebound is just a breather after the waterfall drop, not a bottoming out
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The weekend market gave a little sweetness
BTC bounced near 77,000
ETH stood back above 2250
SOL followed with a slight rebound
It's already predictable
Many are starting to shout: the decline has stopped, a rebound is coming
Let me pour a bucket of cold water on that
It's the weekend now, liquidity is extremely thin
A rebound without volume is the least valuable
A single large order can push it up
Likewise, a single large order can smash it back down
The real bottom doesn't bounce up like this
The bottom is formed by heavy volume selling
It's when panic sellers give up their chips
After the drop stalls, it stabilizes for a few days to confirm
This current wave
Feels more like a brief breather after a big drop
Don't mistake a breather for a market reversal
Watch the volume, don't just look at the red and green candlesticks
Do you think this rebound will be smashed through directly on Monday?
Just my personal market observation, not investment advice
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 BTC ETF连续4天净流入被打断，昨天单日净流出6.43亿美元，贝莱德IBIT领跌2.34亿美元。之前说"行业内部事件、机构不受影响"，现在站不住了。机构的耐心在动摇。$BTC $ETH $SNDK 恐慌贪婪指数掉到30，一周最低，30-54区间垫底。不安在加深，不是在缓解。稳定币7天缩水1.39%，场外待命资金还在撤，不是在等抄底。ETH ETF连续5天净流出，14天累计近8.87亿美元，机构对二饼更谨慎。 更要命的是扩散。又一家纳斯达克上市公司考虑卖掉4.5亿美元BTC，理由就是币安黑客和量子计算担忧。信任冲击在往外走，没停在币安自己身上。纳指跌0.35%，标普跌0.18%，7天分别跌2%和0.6%，传统市场也在同步避险。 反面信号是衍生品还算稳，BTC和ETH的资金费率、未平仓合约没有剧烈变化。还没有新一轮杠杆恐慌出清，这波跌更多是现货和情绪层面，没被杠杆放大。链上BTC、ETH过去一周净流出交易所，偏囤币，但这是滞后信号，解释不了今天。 接下来盯两件事：ETF流出是单日波动还是连续趋势，连续流出就是更深的信心危机；币安周日能不能按计划重启提现、兑现80%资金追回，这是修复安10月29日，OKX、洲际交易所ICE与Trade.xyz公布合作计划，拟把永续合约带入美国受监管市场。按文中信息，ICE与Trade.xyz已经签约，后续仍需监管审批；方案将采用Hyperliquid技术，由ICE与OKX合资公司面向零售用户推出，ICE负责独家运营，并搭建交易与清算体系。 市场反应并不一致。消息出现后，HYPE一度逆势上涨超过13%，随后回落至88.262，跌幅4.42%；OKB报110.77，下跌0.85%。这说明合作叙事虽然带来短线买盘，但预期兑现后，资金并没有继续同步推高相关资产。 ZEC则报1284.44，上涨4.58%。文中将这轮表现与NU7升级预期联系起来，并判断市场注意力出现分流。需要注意的是，合作仍处于推进阶段，审批结果和产品落地时间都尚未确定，ICE的运营安排也不能直接等同于已经上线。 💡 我的看法。 这更像一场题材强、落地慢的行情：HYPE先交易预期，再承受获利回吐；OKB没有跟随走强，说明市场暂时没有把合作直接定价为持续利好。接下来，审批进展、产品是否真正上线，以及HYPE能否重新获得买盘，比单次冲高更值得观察。你更看重ICE与OKX合作的长$200 million. This is not the fundraising amount of a project, but the lobbying budget spent by the crypto industry in this election cycle.
The accounts are clear. Fairshake and its affiliated super PAC support 33 House candidates; Coinbase and Ripple each spend $25 million in 2025; just opposing Sherrod Brown costs $55 million to support his opponent Jon Husted. Stand With Crypto endorses another 45 people.
So this is not scattered money, but targeted spending with clear objectives: whoever loosens market structure legislation, the money goes to them.
The mechanism is simple. The bill is blocked not by technical issues, but by the willingness of legislators. The industry cannot vote directly, but can decide who has money to advertise and who can survive the primaries.
My judgment: no matter who wins, regulatory clarity will increase. Ryan VanGrack put it bluntly—regardless of the outcome, the industry will still gain more clarity. It sounds like consolation, but it’s a calculated fact: $200 million can’t buy the presidency, but it can buy the baseline of no legislative regression.
What’s worth thinking about: compliance costs change from unpredictable to predictable, and the pricing logic changes. $BTC and $ETH used to be discounted due to policy black swans, and this discount is now converging.$ENA rose nine points to 0.19, $AAVE rose eight points back to 129.
Don't get excited, this is just the pit dug yesterday being filled back in. On the day of the incident, these two were the first to be hammered down, for a very practical reason: good liquidity, easy to cash out. Today's rise is due to short covering and bargain hunting, not because someone suddenly became optimistic about DeFi.
$xSKHY is on the other side. SK Hynix dropped nearly eight points last night, the entire storage sector was wiped out by Intel's earnings report, and the mapped coins can only mimic the face of the US stock market.
In short: the money on-chain is circulating among insiders, while the money for the mapped coins is being controlled by outsiders.
My bias: I usually just watch and don't act on rebounds like ENA, the hacker addresses haven't finished unloading their holdings; I've caught knives like XSKHY for most of my life, and my fingers still hurt now.🚨 The storage sector finally can't hold on! SNDK and MU are under continuous pressure, how far is the real bottom-fishing opportunity?
Brothers, the storage sector is really a bit dangerous this time!
The day before, SK Hynix was still supporting the scene, but now the catch-up selling pressure has arrived, and the whole sector's cover has been completely lifted.
📉 Several key stocks have already shown obvious pressure:
Google: Approaching the March low again, market sentiment continues to cool down.
Micron (MU): Testing an important support area from July.
SanDisk (SNDK): Also facing a key support test; if it continues to fall, bottom-fishing funds may have to wait a bit longer.
Intel (INTC): Q4 earnings guidance is below market expectations, stock price under pressure, adding more stress to the semiconductor sector.
🔥 What’s truly worth watching next is the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and changes in the geopolitical situation.
I am currently considering two possibilities:
First: If the Republican Party loses control of both chambers, the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term, possibly experiencing a round of emotional sell-off, but after extreme emotions are released, a new reversal opportunity may brew.
Second: If Congress ends up split, market policy expectations may be repriced, and an early rebound cannot be ruled out.
📊 My trading plan:
Before November 3, focus on observing the storage sector’s support and capital absorption, consider phased left-side positioning rather than going all in at once.
Wait for election results and macro news to become clearer, then decide based on price confirmation whether to... Just came across some big news: ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is actually targeting perpetual contracts. As soon as this news dropped, HYPE went absolutely hyped up.
Checked the on-chain data, and Wall Street’s instincts are truly impressive. Within just half an hour of the news, 12 new positions worth millions of dollars each popped up.
And all of them are long positions—9 longs versus 3 shorts, pushing the long-to-short ratio up to 3.64:1. There’s even a massive whale who went all in with a single trade of over $12 million at an average price of 82.47, which is probably already showing a profit now.
Looking at the weighted average price of this wave of longs, it’s roughly around $83. The fact that these major players are willing to put in hundreds of millions of real money at this level shows they’re not here for short-term plays. Even traditional financial giants are entering the market; these players are clearly positioning themselves early to bet on a breakout. That kind of execution is hard to argue with.
$BTC $HYPE $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 🚨 Stop blaming this crash on Binance being hacked! What you really need to watch out for is that BTC had already shown distribution signals!
Recently, many people have attributed this downturn to the Binance hack, but personally, I think this explanation clearly underestimates the market's own adjustment pressure.
Setting aside the news, just from a technical structure perspective, I believe there were signs of this decline early on.
📉 First: Around $87,000, BTC already showed obvious distribution signs.
A large amount of chips changed hands at high levels, and selling pressure in the market gradually increased. My judgment is that some major funds likely completed a phased reduction near $87,000.
Since there is already clear selling pressure at the high level, why expect the price to only pull back to $83,000 or even $80,000 and then immediately re-enter on a large scale?
For big money, this limited space may not be enough to form an attractive opportunity to reposition.
So I have been emphasizing the need to be cautious of a deeper round of pullback before the end of the month. First, release the trapped positions above and market risks, then talk about the next round of rally — this is more logical.
📊 Second: Refer to the historical trend from January 2023.
At that time, BTC also experienced a rapid surge followed by a deep correction. The current market structure, in my view, has some similarities to that period.
This does not mean history will definitely repeat itself, but historical trends are worth referencing.
If we are still in the early stage of a bull market, then this adjustment might just be the second wave pullback in the upward process, and does not necessarily mean the bull market is over.To be honest, I used to easily mistake a sharp increase in income as a market start signal, with only "don't miss out" on my mind. Later, I realized that a single impressive data point can't support long-term expectations.
This time, Lido's unexpected income from execution layer rewards rose to $605,000, and the DAO received 269.69 stETH in staking fees. But in the subsequent daily rewards report, the amount paid to the treasury was significantly reduced.
I think this is short-term good news on the income side and can't be taken as evidence of sustained growth: rewards fluctuate, and a drop in the next period is a reminder; protocol income also can't be directly equated with token holders' earnings. This kind of atmosphere easily makes people focus only on headlines and leverage themselves with reasons.
Now I follow two rules: first, investigate the source of abnormal income and then see if it can be sustained; second, don't increase leverage based on a single piece of information. Surviving is more important than being fast. Have you ever fallen into the trap of mistaking a one-time income surge for a trend? Would you be willing to share one of your own rules?STRK, XTZ, and CFX continuously add new tokens, persistently diluting the existing supply. Inflation is a long-term burden, and the coin price gradually faces downward pressure over time.
AVAX, APT, and DOT have capped supplies, with incremental supply steadily decreasing. Scarcity is the long-term strength, which, over time, drives price appreciation.The US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a recent large outflow on the 30th, with a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the highest in four months.
BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and ARK's ARKB all experienced significant capital withdrawals, with Ethereum ETFs simultaneously seeing an outflow of $156 million.
Short-term market sentiment is weak; the key focus going forward is whether the funds can stabilize and if there are any signs of inflow.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE The hacker pulled off an asset conversion this time.
$60 million USDT was deposited into $AAVE, collateralized to borrow nearly 20,000 ETH.
USDT can be frozen, but $ETH cannot be directly frozen in the same way.
So the hacker exploited the difference between the two assets to complete a conversion.
Exchanges get hacked, stablecoin issuers are responsible for freezing, but DeFi protocols become the middle ground for asset transfers.
Does this mean hackers no longer need to launder money? They can just take the funds directly to DeFi lending?Binance announces plan to respond to the $6.34 billion hack incident, pledging full compensation for losses.
Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng updated the plan to address the $6.34 billion hack, including asset recovery, service restoration, and enhanced system security.
Announced measures include:
→ Full compensation for losses: Binance will use its own funds to cover losses, ensuring customer assets remain unaffected
→ $6.34 billion reserve: The exchange currently holds $5 billion in related assets. The remaining portion will be acquired through market and OTC trades
Attack method: Hackers infiltrated multiple systems, erased traces, and used EIP-7702 to obtain transaction approval permissions from the hot wallet
→ Service restoration: Withdrawals are temporarily suspended during Binance’s system rebuild. Service is expected to resume by Sunday
→ Reserve proof release: A full reserve proof report is expected to be published on Monday, possibly earlier than originally planned
→ Asset recovery: Some stolen assets have been recovered with cooperation from authorities, token issuers, and other exchanges
→ Security review: Binance is reviewing its entire infrastructure, key management processes, and internal systems to identify vulnerabilities
Binance has taken a series of measures to respond to this incident, including covering losses out of pocket, releasing reserve proofs, and reviewing the entire system. But after a $6.34 billion loss, are these measures enough to restore market confidence? Or is it too early to draw any conclusions now? $BNB Friday’s U.S. equity open is turning into the week’s real stress test for crypto. The setup is not complicated: $ETH and $SOL have already broken below the lows of the latest rally, and $BTC is now staring at the 74,800 level that marked the floor of its previous correction. When the two largest high-beta assets fail first, Bitcoin rarely gets to sit out the next leg. That sequencing matters. Ether and Solana typically lead during risk-on phases because they carry more reflexive leverage and thi#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Supply chain says iPhone 18 Pro orders fell, but Pro Max rose. Overall volume flat.
What it means
Better product mix -> higher ASP, could be positive for margins
Evercore ISI still with Outperform and $380 target
They cite shorter wait times for 18 Pro Max as bullish sign
Market is currently pricing -0.06% only, ignoring the noise. If Pro Max mix improves, AAPL could surprise on revenue even with flat units
Bullish long-term, but short-term choppy on supply chain fears Google cash flow -9 billion, chips down 8% in one day: The market is asking if AI still has buyers, with 3 answers coming next week. The panic selling is by those who "have no money," but the orders on the ledger remain. Intel's guidance and Google's cash flow statement wiped nearly 10% off $SOXX in two days. The most asked question in this week's hot post comment section is: Do cloud providers still have money to buy chips? First, let's look at the scary half of the ledger. Google's Q3 free cash flow was -$9.07 billion, evaporating about 500 billion in market value in one day. Amazon's free cash flow over the past 12 months was -$42.4 billion. Intel's Q4 guidance missed expectations, dropping about 28.6% in one day. Putting these three numbers together, the market reads: AI is burning money, burning cash flow into the negative. Now, look at the other half. Microsoft reported $18.6 billion in free cash flow the same night, with Azure growth at 48%. AWS growth was 39%, the fastest in nearly five years. Google's cash flow turned negative because it is ramping up purchases of servers and chips. Money flows from cloud providers to the chip supply chain, and orders remain steady. So what was sold off this week was the market's panic over "money." This is reflected in prices as follows: $SOXL down 24.8% in one day, $SNDK down 13.5%, while the leader $AMZN only closed down about 1.4%. Those thrown out fell harder than the storm center. The crypto market was sold off by the same sentiment. BTC dropped from 81,000 to below 77,000 in two days, $COHere are 8 revised versions for you, keeping your images and viewpoints:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized Version*
> Spending time watching the market and checking candlesticks every day, why does it feel like working for North Korea?
> Binance was hacked this time, with stolen assets valued at about $6.36 billion. The hackers were busy transferring assets, and some funds even flowed into addresses related to the previous Bitget exchange theft case, so this incident is very likely connected to the North Korean hacker group TraderTraitor.
> Of course, overlapping fund flows could also indicate that both cases used the same money laundering service, so this alone is not enough to draw a direct conclusion.
> These funds are continuously split, transferred, and routed around, looking like they are deliberately tangled up on-chain (just like the situation in the picture), but no matter how they move, every transfer leaves new tracking clues. Hopefully, those bad actors will be caught soon!
*Version 2 - Minimalist Version*
> Watching the market every day feels like working for North Korea.
> Binance was hacked for $6.36 billion; some funds flowed into addresses linked to the Bitget theft case, suspected to be by North Korea's TraderTraitor, or possibly sharing the same laundering service.
> Funds are crazily split and routed around, deliberately confusing as shown in the picture, but every transaction leaves clues. Hope they get caught soon.
*Version 3 - Professional Analysis Version*
> Observation: Suspected North Korean hacker operation.
> Incident: Binance was robbed of about $6.36 billion; some funds overlapped with addresses linked to the Bitget theft case, pointing to"ETH leads gains today, but it's the worst performer this month"
Ethereum closed at 2,241 today, up 2.2%, leading among major coins—Bitcoin at 77,367 only rose 0.6%. Sounds like a reversal.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the picture is completely different: 30 days -16.79%, year-to-date -26.32%, one year -42.15%; October dropped from 2,700 to around 2,240. ETH/BTC has been squeezed down to about 0.029. Bitcoin has retraced 38.8% from its peak, Ethereum 55%. In the same downturn, it fell harder.
Where is the money going? The US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $1.08 billion in October, the largest single-month outflow since 2026, wiping out September's $832 million net inflow and pushing the year-to-date total back to about $485 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $67 million—16 times less in scale. TokenPost
This is the key difference. Bitcoin's decline is about macro factors and leverage; Ethereum's decline also involves a layer of structural divestment.
The reason remains the same: ETH lacks an answer to "why should it rise?" Q2 data is clear—application layer generated $1.79 billion in fees, L1 only captured $88.4 million, 4.9%. Seven-day blob burned 0.22 ETH. It's not unused; it's used but not monetized.
Today's +2.2% is nothing special. Fear & Greed Index at 30, BTC dominance 59.2%, ETH 10.4%, total market cap 2.7 trillion. After the Binance incident, the market stabilized, and Ethereum, as a high beta asset, rebounded faster—this is called resilience, not a turnaround.
Key levels are straightforward: support at 2,240 and 2,200, break below looks at 2,150; resistance above at 2,280, only above that can we talk about 2,350.
Discussion: Is ETH "cheap because it has fallen a lot," or "cheap for a reason"?
I tend to believe the former only holds short-term. The drop itself is not a buying reason; the low valuation is because the pricing model has failed—by fee-based asset metrics it’s not worth it, by settlement layer collateral metrics, that market hasn’t formed yet.
Poll: If you could only choose one, which ETH turnaround signal would you trust more—A. ETF net inflows for three consecutive days; B. L1 capture rate rising; C. Real clearing demand for stablecoins/RWA on Ethereum; D. Bitcoin rises first, and ETH follows.
I choose A. Because it’s the only weekly verifiable indicator that doesn’t require waiting for a narrative.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #MarketAnalysis $ETHJust analyzed a whale address, total profit stands at 214 million, earned 71.07 million in the last 7 days, and made 7.51 million in just the past 24 hours. The perpetual position value is 653 million, and this scale is still fully positioned on the short side. I have to share my thoughts.
First, where is he profiting: ETH short opened at 2322, unrealized profit 6.97 million; ZEC short opened at 1478, profit 7.61 million. With the upcoming upgrade next week based on blocks, he’s still holding firm. These two positions are his profit cushions.
Next, his pain points: BTC short opened at 76366, currently stuck with a loss of 2.73 million; SOL short opened at 94.33, stuck with a loss of 1.16 million. If the bulls really counterattack, these two spots will be his main targets.
What impresses me most is the funding fee: the shorts on these four coins alone have collected over 12 million in funding fees, meaning he’s holding shorts and still getting paid. The liquidation price is far away; BTC would have to rise to 135878 to liquidate. This kind of short isn’t afraid of grinding it out, they can afford to hold. The position isn’t aggressive either, leverage is only 3 to 7 times, with thick margin stacked. This isn’t gambling on direction, it’s wearing down the market with structure.
My judgment: this level of money is fully pressed on the short side, with ISM and Nonfarm coming next week, I won’t go long against him; but retail copying his naked shorts is just asking to get liquidated. He has profit cushions and funding fees to sustain, we don’t. Just watch for when he closes the profitable ETH and ZEC positions and starts taking money—that’s the signal the shorts are loosening up.👀Let's start with a number: 25.36 million USD. This is the 30-day profit of one address, with the position being short on $BTC.
Now let's see what it is doing currently. In the past 30 days, it closed about 11.92 million USD worth of BTC short positions at an average price of 77,362 USD; a few days ago, it still held 11.94 million USD in shorts, but now only about 79.69 BTC remain, valued at 6.17 million USD. It reduced the position, but hasn't fully exited.
There is a detail worth analyzing here. The average closing price of 77,362 USD indicates that most of the shorts were closed near this level, not at a forced liquidation high. When short sellers willingly stop at their cost zone, it usually doesn't mean they are bullish, but rather that they don't want to gamble anymore — they take profits and leave the direction to others.
What is even more noteworthy is its overall ledger: this 0xdd53...2b13 address has accumulated losses of about 18.79 million USD. In other words, the 25.36 million USD gained this month was recovered after previously losing more. Making profits for a while doesn't mean making profits throughout.
Therefore, I don't see this as a signal of a trend reversal. Reducing shorts only indicates one thing: a long-term underperforming address finally cashed out when it was profitable. The real direction depends on whether someone else takes over the short position, not on how much it reduced.
Here's a question for you: if the largest short holder actively retreats at the cost zone, is that a positive sign, or does it just mean they are scared?