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Don't be fooled by nonsense like "risk-off divergence." The truth is that U.S. Treasuries are hemorrhaging cash, and the entire market is indiscriminately deleveraging.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin, dropping below 77,000. Don't keep fooling yourself with the idea of digital gold; under high interest pressure, it's a high-risk asset. When Wall Street runs short on cash, it's the first to get hammered. The overhead resistance is heavy, and ETFs are still seeing massive outflows. Holding long-term spot is fine, but short-term chasing rebounds is pure suicide.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, falling even worse, always the hopeless follower. The ecosystem has no new breakout points and no support. When the market softens, it crashes the hardest. Catching a falling knife now is a surefire way to become a big loser.
Look at $XAUT, gold, plunging more than three points. Do you think the risk-off logic is dead? Wrong. Institutions are using gold as an ATM to cover margin holes in tech stocks and crypto. There are too many profit-taking positions from earlier, and liquidity squeezes make no sense. Central bank buying at the base level continues, but don’t rush to bottom-fish before the stampede ends.
Also, look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging seven points, brutally cutting valuations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hitting nearly 5%, and bond prices are surging. This is the essence: all the money is fleeing to risk-free interest. Who still wants to play with high-risk tech stocks and crypto? In a high-interest environment, cash is king. Don’t think a big drop means cheap; the market is killing greedy retail investors. Control your hands and don’t be a stepping stone for Wall Street big shots. Wait until this deleveraging wave is completely cleared before making a move. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 It's Saturday night this week, is everyone out partying and getting ready to relax? But weekend liquidity is the worst, the market looks dead calm, yet behind the scenes, everyone is holding back big moves! Looking at the contract data, be cautious and definitely avoid heavy positions overnight.
$BTC is currently around 77400, with a 4-hour long-short ratio of 2.74. There's little volume on Saturday; the main players are just drawing gates and wasting time here. There's heavy selling pressure at 78000 above and support orders at 76000 below, both bulls and bears are probing.
Looking at $ETH now at 2247, with a long-short ratio of 2.69, it still follows BTC, but if you look closely at its funding rate, it occasionally turns negative, indicating the bulls lack confidence. As soon as the market softens a bit, it will run faster than anyone else. Don't expect it to lead the charge.
Finally, $SOL is at 95.9, with a 4-hour long-short ratio soaring to 3.71. This data is nerve-wracking; it's all bulls stubbornly holding and adding positions above 95. With such heavy load, if the market shakes even slightly, the main players will definitely target SOL, with a high chance of a downward spike to shake out long positions!
Summary: Weekend late-night liquidity is the worst, and the main players love to launch surprise attacks. Don't lose control just because the market hasn't dropped; beware of sudden gate drawing at midnight.
This Saturday night, are you holding positions overnight or sleeping with an empty book? Do you think Sunday will start with a rebound to lure longs or a direct dump to shake out the bulls?
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 DOGE to hit $0.10 by year-end: 25% rise in two months, effort alone isn't enough, the storyline matters
My judgment is straightforward: $0.10 is not the bull-bear switch for DOGE, but the most direct emotional threshold to close out 2026. If it closes above this by year-end, the whole year can barely be defined as a recovery after a weak consolidation; if it closes below $0.08, the label of a "complete bear market year" basically can't be removed.
Let's do a simple calculation. $DOGE needs to rise 25% from $0.08 to $0.10. This magnitude over two months is not a task that can be done with a casual bounce; it requires capital to reprice. Based on an approximate 25% intra-year drawdown, if it can close near $0.10 at year-end, the annual decline will narrow to about 6%. In other words, the significance of $0.10 is not to make holders proud, but to revise the annual report card from "took a hard hit" to "a wasted year, but at least didn't collapse."
Catalysts are certainly important, but I divide them into igniters and engines. Elon Musk's endorsements and political events are igniters; they can quickly draw full attention but don't necessarily bring sustained buying. Without follow-up capital taking over, it's easy for the "hype team to clock out, and prices to clock out". So for these kinds of markets, I look at sustainability, not just how lively the news night was. #DailyOrbit 【Intel Plummets, U.S. Government's Stake Loses $12 Billion in a Single Day】
Intel $xINTC stock price plunged 28.58% in one day, marking its worst performance since the 1970s. The U.S. government’s roughly 10% stake lost $12 billion in value in a single day, while Nvidia $xNVDA holdings also evaporated by about $6 billion. Intel’s earnings guidance was quite disappointing, with Q4 revenue expected to be only $15 billion to $16 billion, well below the market’s forecast of $17.1 billion, and adjusted EPS nearly half of expectations.
Intel’s Q3 revenue actually reached $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with data center business growing 78%. The company is not without AI growth, but the revenue from AI demand is still insufficient to cover expansion costs, and the PC business was dragged down by rising memory prices. Gross margin is expected to drop from 43% to 38% in Q4, and the company even expects to fail to generate positive cash flow for the full year.
This is what the market truly fears: AI infrastructure investments are increasing, but not every company in the supply chain can convert demand into profit. Intel’s plunge reflects its own operational issues and serves as a warning to the entire chip sector. Especially after rising about 150% this year, previous valuations included too much optimism about successful transformation. Now the market is demanding performance to back up the story. The AI rally may not be over, but the phase where simply associating with AI could drive stock prices up is clearly becoming more difficult.Why not do altcoins 1. Extremely weak liquidity, a small amount of funds can leverage huge price swings The actual tradable circulating volume of the vast majority of altcoins is less than 10% of the total supply, with very shallow order book depth. A single relatively small buy or sell order can directly consume all the orders on the market, causing the price to instantly fluctuate by more than ten points. Meanwhile, a large amount of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the project team and early large holders. Their concentrated selling or pumping actions can directly trigger violent price volatility. 2. High leverage liquidations create a chain death spiral Altcoins are a gathering place for short-term speculative funds, generally with 2-5x or even higher leverage. Once the price fluctuates more than 30%, it triggers a large number of liquidations. The forced sell orders generated by liquidations further push the price down, causing more altcoin positions pledged for stablecoins to be liquidated, forming a negative feedback loop of "price drop → liquidation → further drop." In extreme cases, the daily decline can exceed 90%. 3. Imbalanced capital structure, completely dependent on crypto-native hot money Bitcoin has compliant ETFs to absorb institutional long-term funds, while altcoins almost have no compliant deposit channels. Their funding sources are only VCs and short-term retail investors within the crypto circle. Once macro risks rise, funds will immediately withdraw from high-risk altcoins first, flowing preferentially to Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets, directly causing altcoin buy orders to dry up instantly. $After such a big event, the market only dropped a little.
At first, I thought all the money would run away.
Those Bitcoin funds in the US sold 643 million in one day.
They manage a total of 981.4 billion.
Out of every hundred dollars, only seventy cents moved.
The money didn't run.
Either they haven't reacted yet, or they simply don't believe it will crash.
If it recovers next week, this matter will be over.
If it doesn't recover, that's when it really starts.
Which side are you betting on? Many people see AKE rallying and immediately shout "major reversal." To be honest, this is just a rebound.
To put it simply: during the rise, futures surged with high volume, but the spot market buying couldn't keep up, so this is a leverage-driven move; there are still batches unlocking later, and existing sell pressure remains. Without solid new funds entering, such rallies are mostly pulses—don't dive in headfirst chasing it. #US stocks and gold & silver plummet simultaneously, safe-haven capital flows diverge. Next week, US stocks are highly likely to continue a pattern of high volatility with a shaky bottom search. Multiple Wall Street institutions have already entered defense mode in advance.
🗳️ First level of contention: Midterm elections (November 3)
The Democratic Party is highly likely to take the House of Representatives, and expectations for tighter AI regulation will quickly intensify. Strengthening environmental and energy consumption reviews of data centers will directly impact capital expenditure mainstays like Alphabet and AMD. If a "blue wave landslide" occurs, tech stocks will face rapid short-term downward adjustments.
📉 Second level of contention: Nonfarm payrolls "determine interest rate fate" (November 6)
This is the core window to verify the Fed's pause on rate hikes logic. September's nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, already a significant cold surprise.
· If nonfarm payrolls weaken again: It will reinforce cooling employment, consolidate expectations for a rate hike pause, push US Treasury yields down, and benefit growth stocks.
· If data again exceeds expectations: The market will reprice a December rate hike restart, US Treasury yields will rebound, and high-valuation AI tech stocks will be directly hit.
💸 Third level of contention: AI earnings reports and valuations (throughout the week)
Next week marks the intensive Q3 earnings disclosure period. Previously, Google plunged over 12% in a single day due to capital expenditure and profit misses, sounding an alarm for the market. The market's patience with AI has run out; it is no longer "buying on growth" but demanding to see real profits and free cash flow. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that the semiconductor sector may still fall another 10%-15% before mid-November. $SNDK [Discounted for 38 consecutive days, BTC lacks US buying power]
The US market has not been willing to pay a premium to buy $BTC for 38 consecutive days. The Coinbase premium index recently dropped to -0.2434%, whereas on October 24 it was -0.1353%, showing a further widening of the discount within a week. This change is more concerning than just a continuous negative value: the US market's buying power has not only failed to recover but has continued to weaken recently.
This makes BTC's rebound somewhat awkward. The weak buying power in the US spot market represented by Coinbase means that further price increases will rely more on funds from other regions, ETFs, and the derivatives market to take over. Coinbase's institutional report on October 23 also mentioned that although there was a significant net inflow in US spot ETFs in October, the incremental funds were highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, with about $6 billion net inflow since August, while other US spot ETFs combined only about $500 million.
Additionally, the stablecoin supply has decreased by about $12.7 billion from the May peak, and CryptoQuant's statistics show a spot demand gap of approximately 76,000 BTC as of October 25 over the past 30 days. Several data points indicate the same issue: the market does not lack trading enthusiasm but lacks sustained inflows of spot US dollars.
I remain cautious on BTC in the short term. Occasional large inflows from ETFs can support the price, but they have not yet formed a sustained buying power strong enough to drive the entire US spot market.#PalantirQ3Valuation A cross-chain protocol was hit for $783,000. The amount isn't large, but the attack vector is worth a look for all holders.
zkLink was attacked on October 29. The attacker didn't break private keys or signatures; they exploited a vulnerability left by the contract itself: the verification value brought in by cross-chain messages was not cleared after use.
The process was very clean. The attacker first obtained a valid verification value through a genuine cross-chain message, then reused it within the same transaction. The contract neither cleared it nor bound it to the current call, so the reused value still counted as a valid credential. Then, leveraging relay and gateway contracts, they wrote a forged batch root into the system. After successful forgery, the rest was just execution: 1 $ETH withdrawal and 11 ERC-20 withdrawals.
What’s more concerning is the verification of batch root updates. It only checks whether the caller is the gateway, without independently verifying the batch root itself. This effectively places the security boundary on "gateway identity trustworthiness" rather than "the withdrawal is cryptographically valid."
Cross-chain bridges rarely fail due to cryptography; most fail due to state management. Residual variables, over-privileged checks, and reusable credentials are all issues from the same family.
What can be done practically: don’t let assets sit idle in the bridge. What’s worth considering is that if even the most basic cleanup like "verification values are burned after use" can be missed, then when evaluating a bridge, you should look not at how many audits it has undergone, but how simple its state machine is.#Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided Nonfarm payrolls approaching: Will BTC and ETH trade employment changes first, or rate expectations? Nonfarm data hasn't been released yet, but the market is already guessing: the worse the employment, the easier it is for crypto prices to rise? I think this time we shouldn't rush to apply formulas. In the short term, the market may trade data through rate expectations first, but if employment is weak enough to worry about the economy, BTC and ETH could also come under pressure. In the last report, new nonfarm jobs were only 29,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%; meanwhile, some Fed officials still believe tightening is needed quickly. Employment and inflation tug in both directions, making next week's data difficult to trade. After the November 6 nonfarm release, I'll first look at whether employment numbers, unemployment rate, and wages all weaken together, then see how rate futures price December. If the data is weak and rate hike expectations fall accordingly, and both coins can hold the lows at data release, a recovery is more credible. Conversely, if employment is clearly weaker than expected but BTC and ETH rebound then quickly fall back to pre-release prices, be cautious that the market is starting to worry about growth rather than simply celebrating possible policy easing. For now, note two observation points: around 78088 for BTC and 2262 for ETH, which are their respective 24-hour highs at the time of checking. If after the data the hourly chart closes above and holds on a pullback, consider light positions; if it breaks below their respective 24-hour lows and fails to recover on a rebound, abandon the short-term recovery idea. $BTC $ETH #Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard 🔥🔥🔥Reviewing three long-term positions for everyone's reference, be sure to save this🔥🔥🔥@OKXPlanet $ZEC $SOL $ETH On-chain address tracking has identified a top-tier whale account, with cumulative profits reaching $214 million. In the past seven days, net value surged again, earning $71.07 million, with a single 24-hour profit of $7.51 million. The current perpetual contract position market value is $653 million, with all positions leaning toward the short side. Its trading structure deserves in-depth analysis. The account's profit foundation relies on two major short base positions in ETH and ZEC: The ETH short was established at the 2322 price level, currently unrealized profit of $6.97 million; the ZEC short entry cost is 1478, with a floating profit of $7.61 million. Even though the market expects the ZEC block upgrade to be implemented next week, this whale has not chosen to exit. These two positions form a solid profit buffer. The portfolio also contains assets under passive pressure. The BTC short was opened at 76366, currently showing a floating loss of $2.73 million; the SOL short entered at 94.33, with a floating loss of $1.16 million. If the bulls launch a phased counterattack, these two positions will be the first to bear the impact of price pullbacks. The core highlight of this strategy comes from funding fee income. The four major coin short positions have cumulatively earned over $12 million in funding fees, continuously generating passive cash flow during the holding period. The account has sufficient safety margin, with the BTC liquidation price projected up to 135878, which is a distance from$USDT
Last month I was still pondering whether to move half of the USDT I had to USDC for stability. After reading Tether's financial report today, I'll hold off for now.
Q3 net operating profit was $1.5 billion, totaling $4.5 billion for the first nine months, matching Q2. Excess reserves doubled from $4.1 billion at the end of Q2 to nearly $8 billion, with total assets of $191.5 billion against liabilities of $183.5 billion, and U.S. Treasury holdings exceeding $130 billion.
What's interesting is the issuance volume. At 184 billion, it basically stayed flat for the first three quarters. The volume didn't increase, but the money earned more and more, all from U.S. Treasury interest and reverse repos. While others compete on exchanges and L2, it just lies back collecting Treasury interest. I casually checked OKX spot; USDT/USD quoted at 0.999, the market still shows full confidence.
They stockpile U.S. Treasuries in their vault, while I watch K-line charts late into the night. The envy is real, but the data speaks for itself.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 81688.3 short $BTC, 100x leverage, target 77458.6, floating profit +517.78%. To wrap up, just three points:
1. First, close a portion; only the amount transferred into the account counts, the number on the screen reflects the market;
2. Set the trigger line for the remaining position above the cost; too close to the current price will get shaken out by normal fluctuations;
3. Do nothing during sideways consolidation, neither add positions nor exit early.
From the trend perspective: after a zigzag decline, it enters a low-level sideways consolidation. Whether this is a continuation of the downtrend or a bottom rebound can’t be determined from the chart; we have to wait for it to develop. Here are some specific reference numbers for myself: target 78000, floating profit about 451; 79000, about 329; 80000, about 207; 81000, about 84; cost 81688.3, break-even; below 77000, about 574; 76500, about 635; 76000, about 696. For every approximate 817 increase in price, floating profit decreases by 100 points—remember this conversion well, so you won’t be dazzled by that 517 during sideways movement. Both ends have considerable elasticity, which is why I close part first and keep a small portion: closing part secures the result, keeping some preserves the possibility. If it breaks below 77000, accept more loss; if it rises above 79000, exit according to the line, not leaving the decision to a single guess. $BTC $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $UNI
Last week I said that UNI's rally had no substantial fundamentals and was purely emotional, but today I have to admit I was wrong.
Uniswap has opened the TJAR fee conversion system to all applications. Last month, this system handled over $15.3 million in swaps on its own and now covers 7 chains. Robinhood has already integrated it—their new chain directly runs Uniswap v2/v3/v4, and all token fees generated by user trades are uniformly converted into USDC and USDG through Uniswap's API for accounting.
A US stock brokerage-level platform handing over the entire fee settlement process to an on-chain protocol is unprecedented. Previously, DeFi was considered just hype, but now their chains are paying tolls to it.
UNI is currently at $6.90+, having touched a 24-hour high of 7.23 before dropping back. I won't speculate on the price, but this fee revenue line is truly materializing, unlike last year's pure governance token speculation.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 ⚠️ This weekend's slight rebound is just a breather after the waterfall drop, not a bottoming out
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The weekend market gave a little sweetness
BTC bounced near 77,000
ETH stood back above 2250
SOL followed with a slight rebound
It's already predictable
Many are starting to shout: the decline has stopped, a rebound is coming
Let me pour a bucket of cold water on that
It's the weekend now, liquidity is extremely thin
A rebound without volume is the least valuable
A single large order can push it up
Likewise, a single large order can smash it back down
The real bottom doesn't bounce up like this
The bottom is formed by heavy volume selling
It's when panic sellers give up their chips
After the drop stalls, it stabilizes for a few days to confirm
This current wave
Feels more like a brief breather after a big drop
Don't mistake a breather for a market reversal
Watch the volume, don't just look at the red and green candlesticks
Do you think this rebound will be smashed through directly on Monday?
Just my personal market observation, not investment advice
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 BTC ETF连续4天净流入被打断，昨天单日净流出6.43亿美元，贝莱德IBIT领跌2.34亿美元。之前说"行业内部事件、机构不受影响"，现在站不住了。机构的耐心在动摇。$BTC $ETH $SNDK 恐慌贪婪指数掉到30，一周最低，30-54区间垫底。不安在加深，不是在缓解。稳定币7天缩水1.39%，场外待命资金还在撤，不是在等抄底。ETH ETF连续5天净流出，14天累计近8.87亿美元，机构对二饼更谨慎。 更要命的是扩散。又一家纳斯达克上市公司考虑卖掉4.5亿美元BTC，理由就是币安黑客和量子计算担忧。信任冲击在往外走，没停在币安自己身上。纳指跌0.35%，标普跌0.18%，7天分别跌2%和0.6%，传统市场也在同步避险。 反面信号是衍生品还算稳，BTC和ETH的资金费率、未平仓合约没有剧烈变化。还没有新一轮杠杆恐慌出清，这波跌更多是现货和情绪层面，没被杠杆放大。链上BTC、ETH过去一周净流出交易所，偏囤币，但这是滞后信号，解释不了今天。 接下来盯两件事：ETF流出是单日波动还是连续趋势，连续流出就是更深的信心危机；币安周日能不能按计划重启提现、兑现80%资金追回，这是修复安On October 29, OKX, Intercontinental Exchange ICE, and Trade.xyz announced a cooperation plan to bring perpetual contracts into the regulated U.S. market. According to the information in the article, ICE and Trade.xyz have already signed an agreement, but regulatory approval is still required; the plan will use Hyperliquid technology and will be launched by a joint venture between ICE and OKX targeting retail users. ICE will be responsible for exclusive operations and will build the trading and clearing system. Market reactions have been mixed. After the news broke, HYPE once rose more than 13% against the trend, then fell back to 88.262, down 4.42%; OKB was quoted at 110.77, down 0.85%. This indicates that although the cooperation narrative brought short-term buying, after expectations were realized, funds did not continue to push related assets higher in sync. ZEC was quoted at 1284.44, up 4.58%. The article links this round of performance to the NU7 upgrade expectations and judges that market attention has been diverted. It should be noted that the cooperation is still in the promotion stage, the approval results and product launch time are not yet determined, and ICE's operational arrangements cannot be directly equated with being already online. 💡 My view. This looks more like a theme-driven but slow-to-implement market: HYPE first trades on expectations, then bears profit-taking; OKB did not follow the strength, indicating the market has not yet priced the cooperation as a sustained positive. Going forward, the progress of approvals, whether the product truly launches, and whether HYPE can regain buying interest are more worth watching than a single price spike. You value the ICE and OKX cooperation more for the long$200 million. This is not the fundraising amount of a project, but the lobbying budget spent by the crypto industry in this election cycle.
The accounts are clear. Fairshake and its affiliated super PAC support 33 House candidates; Coinbase and Ripple each spend $25 million in 2025; just opposing Sherrod Brown costs $55 million to support his opponent Jon Husted. Stand With Crypto endorses another 45 people.
So this is not scattered money, but targeted spending with clear objectives: whoever loosens market structure legislation, the money goes to them.
The mechanism is simple. The bill is blocked not by technical issues, but by the willingness of legislators. The industry cannot vote directly, but can decide who has money to advertise and who can survive the primaries.
My judgment: no matter who wins, regulatory clarity will increase. Ryan VanGrack put it bluntly—regardless of the outcome, the industry will still gain more clarity. It sounds like consolation, but it’s a calculated fact: $200 million can’t buy the presidency, but it can buy the baseline of no legislative regression.
What’s worth thinking about: compliance costs change from unpredictable to predictable, and the pricing logic changes. $BTC and $ETH used to be discounted due to policy black swans, and this discount is now converging.$ENA rose nine points to 0.19, $AAVE rose eight points back to 129.
Don't get excited, this is just the pit dug yesterday being filled back in. On the day of the incident, these two were the first to be hammered down, for a very practical reason: good liquidity, easy to cash out. Today's rise is due to short covering and bargain hunting, not because someone suddenly became optimistic about DeFi.
$xSKHY is on the other side. SK Hynix dropped nearly eight points last night, the entire storage sector was wiped out by Intel's earnings report, and the mapped coins can only mimic the face of the US stock market.
In short: the money on-chain is circulating among insiders, while the money for the mapped coins is being controlled by outsiders.
My bias: I usually just watch and don't act on rebounds like ENA, the hacker addresses haven't finished unloading their holdings; I've caught knives like XSKHY for most of my life, and my fingers still hurt now.🚨 The storage sector finally can't hold on! SNDK and MU are under continuous pressure, how far is the real bottom-fishing opportunity?
Brothers, the storage sector is really a bit dangerous this time!
The day before, SK Hynix was still supporting the scene, but now the catch-up selling pressure has arrived, and the whole sector's cover has been completely lifted.
📉 Several key stocks have already shown obvious pressure:
Google: Approaching the March low again, market sentiment continues to cool down.
Micron (MU): Testing an important support area from July.
SanDisk (SNDK): Also facing a key support test; if it continues to fall, bottom-fishing funds may have to wait a bit longer.
Intel (INTC): Q4 earnings guidance is below market expectations, stock price under pressure, adding more stress to the semiconductor sector.
🔥 What’s truly worth watching next is the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and changes in the geopolitical situation.
I am currently considering two possibilities:
First: If the Republican Party loses control of both chambers, the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term, possibly experiencing a round of emotional sell-off, but after extreme emotions are released, a new reversal opportunity may brew.
Second: If Congress ends up split, market policy expectations may be repriced, and an early rebound cannot be ruled out.
📊 My trading plan:
Before November 3, focus on observing the storage sector’s support and capital absorption, consider phased left-side positioning rather than going all in at once.
Wait for election results and macro news to become clearer, then decide based on price confirmation whether to... Just came across some big news: ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is actually targeting perpetual contracts. As soon as this news dropped, HYPE went absolutely hyped up.
Checked the on-chain data, and Wall Street’s instincts are truly impressive. Within just half an hour of the news, 12 new positions worth millions of dollars each popped up.
And all of them are long positions—9 longs versus 3 shorts, pushing the long-to-short ratio up to 3.64:1. There’s even a massive whale who went all in with a single trade of over $12 million at an average price of 82.47, which is probably already showing a profit now.
Looking at the weighted average price of this wave of longs, it’s roughly around $83. The fact that these major players are willing to put in hundreds of millions of real money at this level shows they’re not here for short-term plays. Even traditional financial giants are entering the market; these players are clearly positioning themselves early to bet on a breakout. That kind of execution is hard to argue with.
$BTC $HYPE $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 🚨 Stop blaming this crash on Binance being hacked! What you really need to watch out for is that BTC had already shown distribution signals!
Recently, many people have attributed this downturn to the Binance hack, but personally, I think this explanation clearly underestimates the market's own adjustment pressure.
Setting aside the news, just from a technical structure perspective, I believe there were signs of this decline early on.
📉 First: Around $87,000, BTC already showed obvious distribution signs.
A large amount of chips changed hands at high levels, and selling pressure in the market gradually increased. My judgment is that some major funds likely completed a phased reduction near $87,000.
Since there is already clear selling pressure at the high level, why expect the price to only pull back to $83,000 or even $80,000 and then immediately re-enter on a large scale?
For big money, this limited space may not be enough to form an attractive opportunity to reposition.
So I have been emphasizing the need to be cautious of a deeper round of pullback before the end of the month. First, release the trapped positions above and market risks, then talk about the next round of rally — this is more logical.
📊 Second: Refer to the historical trend from January 2023.
At that time, BTC also experienced a rapid surge followed by a deep correction. The current market structure, in my view, has some similarities to that period.
This does not mean history will definitely repeat itself, but historical trends are worth referencing.
If we are still in the early stage of a bull market, then this adjustment might just be the second wave pullback in the upward process, and does not necessarily mean the bull market is over.To be honest, I used to easily mistake a sharp increase in income as a market start signal, with only "don't miss out" on my mind. Later, I realized that a single impressive data point can't support long-term expectations.
This time, Lido's unexpected income from execution layer rewards rose to $605,000, and the DAO received 269.69 stETH in staking fees. But in the subsequent daily rewards report, the amount paid to the treasury was significantly reduced.
I think this is short-term good news on the income side and can't be taken as evidence of sustained growth: rewards fluctuate, and a drop in the next period is a reminder; protocol income also can't be directly equated with token holders' earnings. This kind of atmosphere easily makes people focus only on headlines and leverage themselves with reasons.
Now I follow two rules: first, investigate the source of abnormal income and then see if it can be sustained; second, don't increase leverage based on a single piece of information. Surviving is more important than being fast. Have you ever fallen into the trap of mistaking a one-time income surge for a trend? Would you be willing to share one of your own rules?STRK, XTZ, and CFX continuously add new tokens, persistently diluting the existing supply. Inflation is a long-term burden, and the coin price gradually faces downward pressure over time.
AVAX, APT, and DOT have capped supplies, with incremental supply steadily decreasing. Scarcity is the long-term strength, which, over time, drives price appreciation.The US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a recent large outflow on the 30th, with a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the highest in four months.
BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and ARK's ARKB all experienced significant capital withdrawals, with Ethereum ETFs simultaneously seeing an outflow of $156 million.
Short-term market sentiment is weak; the key focus going forward is whether the funds can stabilize and if there are any signs of inflow.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE The hacker pulled off an asset conversion this time.
$60 million USDT was deposited into $AAVE, collateralized to borrow nearly 20,000 ETH.
USDT can be frozen, but $ETH cannot be directly frozen in the same way.
So the hacker exploited the difference between the two assets to complete a conversion.
Exchanges get hacked, stablecoin issuers are responsible for freezing, but DeFi protocols become the middle ground for asset transfers.
Does this mean hackers no longer need to launder money? They can just take the funds directly to DeFi lending?Binance announces plan to respond to the $6.34 billion hack incident, pledging full compensation for losses.
Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng updated the plan to address the $6.34 billion hack, including asset recovery, service restoration, and enhanced system security.
Announced measures include:
→ Full compensation for losses: Binance will use its own funds to cover losses, ensuring customer assets remain unaffected
→ $6.34 billion reserve: The exchange currently holds $5 billion in related assets. The remaining portion will be acquired through market and OTC trades
Attack method: Hackers infiltrated multiple systems, erased traces, and used EIP-7702 to obtain transaction approval permissions from the hot wallet
→ Service restoration: Withdrawals are temporarily suspended during Binance’s system rebuild. Service is expected to resume by Sunday
→ Reserve proof release: A full reserve proof report is expected to be published on Monday, possibly earlier than originally planned
→ Asset recovery: Some stolen assets have been recovered with cooperation from authorities, token issuers, and other exchanges
→ Security review: Binance is reviewing its entire infrastructure, key management processes, and internal systems to identify vulnerabilities
Binance has taken a series of measures to respond to this incident, including covering losses out of pocket, releasing reserve proofs, and reviewing the entire system. But after a $6.34 billion loss, are these measures enough to restore market confidence? Or is it too early to draw any conclusions now? $BNB Friday’s U.S. equity open is turning into the week’s real stress test for crypto. The setup is not complicated: $ETH and $SOL have already broken below the lows of the latest rally, and $BTC is now staring at the 74,800 level that marked the floor of its previous correction. When the two largest high-beta assets fail first, Bitcoin rarely gets to sit out the next leg. That sequencing matters. Ether and Solana typically lead during risk-on phases because they carry more reflexive leverage and thi#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Supply chain says iPhone 18 Pro orders fell, but Pro Max rose. Overall volume flat.
What it means
Better product mix -> higher ASP, could be positive for margins
Evercore ISI still with Outperform and $380 target
They cite shorter wait times for 18 Pro Max as bullish sign
Market is currently pricing -0.06% only, ignoring the noise. If Pro Max mix improves, AAPL could surprise on revenue even with flat units
Bullish long-term, but short-term choppy on supply chain fears 谷歌现金流-90亿，芯片一天-8%：市场在问AI还有没有人买单，下周有3个答案 恐慌卖的是“没钱”，可账本上的订单还在。 英特尔一份指引、谷歌一张现金流表，两天打掉了 $SOXX 将近 10%。 这周热帖评论区问得最多的一句是：云厂商还有没有钱买芯片？ 先看让人害怕的那半本账。谷歌三季度自由现金流 -90.7 亿美元，单日蒸发约 5000 亿美元市值。亚马逊过去 12 个月自由现金流 -424 亿美元。英特尔四季度指引不及预期，单日跌约 28.6%。三个数字放在一起，市场读出来的是：AI 在烧钱，烧到现金流都转负了。 再看另外半本。微软同一晚交出 186 亿美元自由现金流，Azure 增速 48%。AWS 增速 39%，近五年最快。谷歌现金流转负，是因为它在加码买服务器和芯片。钱从云厂商流向芯片链，订单一直在。 所以这周被卖掉的，是市场对“钱”的恐慌。它落在价格上是这样的：$SOXL 一天 -24.8%，$SNDK -13.5%，带头的 $AMZN 收盘只跌了约 1.4%。被甩出去的，比风暴中心跌得更狠。 币圈被同一股情绪卖了一遍。BTC 两天从 8.1 万跌到 7.7 万下方，$COHere are 8 revised versions for you, keeping your images and viewpoints:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized Version*
> Spending time watching the market and checking candlesticks every day, why does it feel like working for North Korea?
> Binance was hacked this time, with stolen assets valued at about $6.36 billion. The hackers were busy transferring assets, and some funds even flowed into addresses related to the previous Bitget exchange theft case, so this incident is very likely connected to the North Korean hacker group TraderTraitor.
> Of course, overlapping fund flows could also indicate that both cases used the same money laundering service, so this alone is not enough to draw a direct conclusion.
> These funds are continuously split, transferred, and routed around, looking like they are deliberately tangled up on-chain (just like the situation in the picture), but no matter how they move, every transfer leaves new tracking clues. Hopefully, those bad actors will be caught soon!
*Version 2 - Minimalist Version*
> Watching the market every day feels like working for North Korea.
> Binance was hacked for $6.36 billion; some funds flowed into addresses linked to the Bitget theft case, suspected to be by North Korea's TraderTraitor, or possibly sharing the same laundering service.
> Funds are crazily split and routed around, deliberately confusing as shown in the picture, but every transaction leaves clues. Hope they get caught soon.
*Version 3 - Professional Analysis Version*
> Observation: Suspected North Korean hacker operation.
> Incident: Binance was robbed of about $6.36 billion; some funds overlapped with addresses linked to the Bitget theft case, pointing to"ETH leads gains today, but it's the worst performer this month"
Ethereum closed at 2,241 today, up 2.2%, leading among major coins—Bitcoin at 77,367 only rose 0.6%. Sounds like a reversal.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the picture is completely different: 30 days -16.79%, year-to-date -26.32%, one year -42.15%; October dropped from 2,700 to around 2,240. ETH/BTC has been squeezed down to about 0.029. Bitcoin has retraced 38.8% from its peak, Ethereum 55%. In the same downturn, it fell harder.
Where is the money going? The US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $1.08 billion in October, the largest single-month outflow since 2026, wiping out September's $832 million net inflow and pushing the year-to-date total back to about $485 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $67 million—16 times less in scale. TokenPost
This is the key difference. Bitcoin's decline is about macro factors and leverage; Ethereum's decline also involves a layer of structural divestment.
The reason remains the same: ETH lacks an answer to "why should it rise?" Q2 data is clear—application layer generated $1.79 billion in fees, L1 only captured $88.4 million, 4.9%. Seven-day blob burned 0.22 ETH. It's not unused; it's used but not monetized.
Today's +2.2% is nothing special. Fear & Greed Index at 30, BTC dominance 59.2%, ETH 10.4%, total market cap 2.7 trillion. After the Binance incident, the market stabilized, and Ethereum, as a high beta asset, rebounded faster—this is called resilience, not a turnaround.
Key levels are straightforward: support at 2,240 and 2,200, break below looks at 2,150; resistance above at 2,280, only above that can we talk about 2,350.
Discussion: Is ETH "cheap because it has fallen a lot," or "cheap for a reason"?
I tend to believe the former only holds short-term. The drop itself is not a buying reason; the low valuation is because the pricing model has failed—by fee-based asset metrics it’s not worth it, by settlement layer collateral metrics, that market hasn’t formed yet.
Poll: If you could only choose one, which ETH turnaround signal would you trust more—A. ETF net inflows for three consecutive days; B. L1 capture rate rising; C. Real clearing demand for stablecoins/RWA on Ethereum; D. Bitcoin rises first, and ETH follows.
I choose A. Because it’s the only weekly verifiable indicator that doesn’t require waiting for a narrative.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #MarketAnalysis $ETHJust analyzed a whale address, total profit stands at 214 million, earned 71.07 million in the last 7 days, and made 7.51 million in just the past 24 hours. The perpetual position value is 653 million, and this scale is still fully positioned on the short side. I have to share my thoughts.
First, where is he profiting: ETH short opened at 2322, unrealized profit 6.97 million; ZEC short opened at 1478, profit 7.61 million. With the upcoming upgrade next week based on blocks, he’s still holding firm. These two positions are his profit cushions.
Next, his pain points: BTC short opened at 76366, currently stuck with a loss of 2.73 million; SOL short opened at 94.33, stuck with a loss of 1.16 million. If the bulls really counterattack, these two spots will be his main targets.
What impresses me most is the funding fee: the shorts on these four coins alone have collected over 12 million in funding fees, meaning he’s holding shorts and still getting paid. The liquidation price is far away; BTC would have to rise to 135878 to liquidate. This kind of short isn’t afraid of grinding it out, they can afford to hold. The position isn’t aggressive either, leverage is only 3 to 7 times, with thick margin stacked. This isn’t gambling on direction, it’s wearing down the market with structure.
My judgment: this level of money is fully pressed on the short side, with ISM and Nonfarm coming next week, I won’t go long against him; but retail copying his naked shorts is just asking to get liquidated. He has profit cushions and funding fees to sustain, we don’t. Just watch for when he closes the profitable ETH and ZEC positions and starts taking money—that’s the signal the shorts are loosening up.👀Let's start with a number: 25.36 million USD. This is the 30-day profit of one address, with the position being short on $BTC.
Now let's see what it is doing currently. In the past 30 days, it closed about 11.92 million USD worth of BTC short positions at an average price of 77,362 USD; a few days ago, it still held 11.94 million USD in shorts, but now only about 79.69 BTC remain, valued at 6.17 million USD. It reduced the position, but hasn't fully exited.
There is a detail worth analyzing here. The average closing price of 77,362 USD indicates that most of the shorts were closed near this level, not at a forced liquidation high. When short sellers willingly stop at their cost zone, it usually doesn't mean they are bullish, but rather that they don't want to gamble anymore — they take profits and leave the direction to others.
What is even more noteworthy is its overall ledger: this 0xdd53...2b13 address has accumulated losses of about 18.79 million USD. In other words, the 25.36 million USD gained this month was recovered after previously losing more. Making profits for a while doesn't mean making profits throughout.
Therefore, I don't see this as a signal of a trend reversal. Reducing shorts only indicates one thing: a long-term underperforming address finally cashed out when it was profitable. The real direction depends on whether someone else takes over the short position, not on how much it reduced.
Here's a question for you: if the largest short holder actively retreats at the cost zone, is that a positive sign, or does it just mean they are scared?$HYPE #Continued weakness is not a short-term correction but a dual return of valuation and sentiment.
Previously, it became the market leader relying on the traffic myth of the DEX contract track and the narrative of high trading volume, with funds clustering to push the valuation to the max. But after the heat subsided, many hidden pressures gradually surfaced.
First, selling pressure expectations have always existed. A large number of tokens are still in the unlocking period, with a continuous supply that requires sustained incremental funds to absorb. When the market was hot, everyone ignored this, but once market sentiment cools, unlocking becomes a stone hanging overhead.
Second, the market logic has changed. Previously, people speculated on expectations, market share, and track imagination; now funds start to look at real fees, buyback strength, and competitive pressure. Peers continuously divert trading volume, and its growth ceiling is being questioned.
Third, the overall market beta drags it down. BTC and ETH continue to fluctuate weakly, the entire crypto market's risk appetite declines, and funds prioritize withdrawing from popular assets with large gains and high valuations. Coupled with regulatory uncertainty that has never been eliminated, institutions and whales choose to take profits. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $ETH $BTC Spot capital flows reveal a very interesting "divergence" phenomenon: BTC is being sold off, smart money is bottom-fishing, and SOL is absorbing capital.
Data breakdown:
BTC✨ 24-hour net outflow of 281 million U, but short-term (6-12 hours) violent inflow exceeding 140 million U. This indicates long-term holders are retreating, but short-term speculators are aggressively catching the falling knife, betting on a rebound.
ETH✨ Daily level finally turned positive, net inflow of 25.56 million U. Although short cycles still show slight outflows, the overall direction has started to recover, temporarily resolving the liquidity crisis.
SOL✨ The true "version child." Continuous net inflow across all cycles, absorbing capital from 6 to 12 hours. Compared to BTC's hesitation, SOL's capital stance is very decisive: just buy.
Core logic
The current market is a typical "smash and absorb." Daily selling pressure is not over yet (especially BTC's mid-term outflow), but this does not prevent short-term funds from entering to trade T.
Operational insight
Don't be scared off by BTC's daily outflow; short-term inflow signals are strong. If you are conservative, watch ETH's daily reversal. If you want to bet on volatility, SOL's capital strength currently surpasses BTC.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Looking at SanDisk's earnings report, the numbers are actually not bad; revenue, profit, and guidance all exceeded market consensus, plus there was a buyback and stock split, which under normal circumstances should be positive news.
But the problem is that the market had already priced in very high expectations. What truly reversed sentiment was Kioxia's profit guidance falling short of expectations and the indication that the pace of flash memory price increases is slowing down. Storage stocks are now priced not on "still rising," but on "whether the rise is fast enough." When the price increase slope declines, even if performance remains strong, capital tends to withdraw first.
Additionally, with Intel's weak guidance and pressure on PC demand, risk appetite in the semiconductor sector quickly dropped, and the storage segment was almost collectively sold off. This is not an issue with SanDisk alone, but the entire sector shifting from a "high prosperity consensus" to "concerns about marginal slowdown."
At this stage, fundamentals may not immediately deteriorate, but stock prices often reflect sentiment first. Rather than rushing to judge where the bottom is, it's better to observe a few things first: whether panic selling pressure has been sufficiently released, whether storage contract prices continue to slow down, and whether the sector shows signs of volume-driven stabilization. Patience is more important than position size now; wait for the market to provide certainty again before considering entry. 【USDC Net Redemption of $800 Million in One Week, Dollar Ammo in Crypto Circles is Decreasing】
$CRCL issued $10.9 billion USDC in the past 7 days but was redeemed for $11.7 billion, a net decrease of about $800 million, with circulation dropping to around $70 billion. It looks like only a 1.1% contraction, but this is not the first time a similar situation has occurred: in early October, USDC also decreased by about $800 million within a week. Consecutive net redemptions indicate that the speed of new dollars entering the USDC system temporarily cannot keep up with the speed of funds exiting.
This contraction has not only happened in the past 7 days. Data from October 28 already showed that USDC's market value declined by 2.8% in October, a decrease of about $2.08 billion, while the overall stablecoin market size remained near $305.5 billion, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%. USDT also only slightly decreased by 0.17%. This indicates that funds have not massively disappeared from the entire stablecoin system, and the weakening demand for USDC itself is more apparent.
For the crypto market, stablecoins are an important channel for off-exchange dollars to enter the trading market. Continuous net redemptions of USDC mean insufficient growth momentum in dollar reserves available for trading, market making, and DeFi. Moreover, the average daily trading volume of stablecoin pairs on exchanges also dropped by 2.54% during the same period. Currently, I am more inclined to see this as a signal of weakening market risk appetite and reduced fund activity. What is truly worth watching next is whether USDC can stop contracting and whether the entire stablecoin market can expand again.What the hell is going on? This guy suddenly unlocked his stake—is he about to dump or shake the market?
On-chain data just revealed that a guy suddenly unlocked 304,600 $HYPE tokens! At the current price, that's $27.19 million, a solid $27 million dumped on the market—who can withstand that?
I traced the address and this guy is something else. He bought this batch from Galaxy Digital three months ago, probably locked and staked them right after buying, then stayed silent for a full three months. Today, he suddenly resurrected and withdrew everything.
Honestly, when a whale moves tens of millions like this, the market has to shake a bit. Although it's not certain if he's going to sell immediately, this signal definitely sparks a lot of speculation.Ethereum has been more volatile recently, dropping sharply but also rebounding quickly.
Sweeping the liquidity at 2160 doesn't necessarily mean the bottom is reached; let's observe the sentiment over the weekend and then decide. SANDISK SLIDES DESPITE STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH
$SNDK dropped 13.47% on October 30, even after reporting 378% year-over-year Q1 revenue growth and issuing stronger-than-expected Q2 guidance.
The company also announced an eight-for-one stock split.
After a massive year-to-date rally, investors may be reassessing how much future growth is already reflected in the valuation.
#SanDiskEarningsSelloff ⚡Price rises while positions shrink! This rebound has no new money entering the market
Key point tonight:
Prices appear to rebound, but positions are retreating
The market is lively, but no real capital is adding
24-hour data:
Positions across the network are shrinking simultaneously
ZEC -2.48%
SOL -1.75%
BTC -0.98%
ETH -0.50%
Price pull-up:
BTC 76360→77569
ETH bounced to 2250
SOL up 1.92% to 96.77
Price up, positions down
Not new funds entering
Just shorts covering and longs reducing positions
Quick reversal within an hour
Only SOL slightly up 0.59%
BTC slightly down 0.12%
ETH hovering near zero line
Single coin moving alone, the rest can't keep up
Cannot support a reversal
Capital flow:
ETH ETF outflows nearly 1.32 billion in October
Only BTC absorbed 135 million in a single day
Price rises while ETF outflows continue
Severe capital divergence
I’m not chasing this rebound
Positions shrinking, coins not moving in sync
No matter how high, it’s just short covering
Wait for position growth and at least two coins strengthening together before acting
If you can’t keep up, just watch the show
Positions turn before prices
Solo price surges are just corrections, not reversals
Do you think this low-volume rebound will directly give back gains tomorrow?
Just market observation, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $ROSE
Oasis focuses on privacy-preserving computation through confidential smart contracts, a niche with real logic as data sensitivity grows. Demand is the open issue. Privacy features only matter if applications actually need them, so live use cases matter more than technical promise.OKX's $BTC, 100x short, opened at 80766, marked at 77409.6, actual drop 4.16% squeezed out +415.55%. Although BTC order book is the deepest globally, 100x leverage turns the "depth" into a joke—
1% tolerance (around 79958) means a halving. At 21:37 night session junction, Asian market recedes while Europe and America haven't picked up, liquidity contraction period is exactly the window for whales to create spikes.
The deeper the order book, the more funds needed to sweep stop losses, but the stop loss density of 100x shorts is also more concentrated, a single spike can trigger a chain reaction. Main position withdraws to confirm rights, base position welded at 80766, not treating liquidity depth as a safety cushion.
$BTC $ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 I still hold long positions in $BTC (average price $83,030), no additional positions.
The resistance above is the downward trendline at $83,650, which is moving down by $118 daily.
The $79,742 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 5 times, and broken through 2 times.
A) Breaking below $76,519: Long positions around this area have liquidated $5.08 million in the past 39.6 hours, the market may continue to sweep liquidity downward. This is invalid if it rises above $78,000.
B) A wick that triggers stop losses below $76,265 then recovers to $77,000 is a false breakdown, rebound target is $79,299. If it cannot recover $77,000, it is invalid.
I will take profit by reducing half of my long positions when it rebounds to $79,742.
Do you think $77,000 can hold? #OKXTraderVoices This wave of the US stock market has seen a major correction, and the differentiation of AI tokens is just beginning: only those few with real revenue have a future, the rest are all stories.
$TAO is one of the very few priced based on real revenue. The Bittensor subnet competes to provide AI services and issues TAO based on useful work, making the AI revenue narrative the highest quality.
Of course, TAO's smart market has a cash flow logic, but the bearish rate indicates loose short-term chips.
$FET is a merged proxy narrative, with revenue relying on merger dividends rather than itself. When the ASI Alliance (Fetch.ai + SingularityNET + Ocean) merged, 1.56 million converters were taken away.
Certainly, FET has the biggest proxy story, but its own revenue is weak, and its rise depends on sector Beta.
$VIRTUAL actually has the most fans and is a high Beta proxy launchpad, the purest narrative. It issues tokenized AI agents (like aiXBT), with the most volatile swings.
So VIRTUAL is the most elastic and also the most bearish among the three; when the narrative heats up, it goes wild, and when it cools down, it suffers the most.⚠️BTC volatility is an illusion! Institutions are quietly unloading
$BTC
Don't be fooled by the word "volatility"
This wave is essentially institutions offloading
Last week saw ETF net inflows for four consecutive days
Followed by adding positions, now stuck in losses
On October 30th, it directly fell below 77,000
ETF single-day net outflow of 643 million dollars
All the purchases from the previous four days were completely sold off in one day
Such a large-scale order withdrawal
Retail investors simply can't do this
It's Wall Street doing large-scale portfolio adjustments
Coinbase premium index
Dropped to the lowest since November 2022
I remember this signal very clearly
Last time it reached this level was the day FTX collapsed
Of course, this time it doesn't mean a crash
But the sentiment is exactly the same freezing point
No one in the spot market is willing to pay a premium to buy BTC
My entire position is now stuck and numb
I don't know when I can break even
$ETH is falling along with BTC
The rebound strength is directly half as strong
ETH/BTC exchange rate
Dropped to the lowest point I've held Ethereum for three years
Last year I still believed "Ethereum ETF will take off once it arrives"
Now I'm deeply in the red
Only one word left for ETH: run
Don't rush to heavily buy the dip
Wait for ETF net inflows for three consecutive days before considering
The lesson of buying the dip halfway up the mountain was too painful
Are you holding your position or planning to wait for a signal before acting?
This is just a personal review record, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Yesterday, everyone's Moments were full of screenshots showing drops of 5 to 6 points, but today not a single person is making a sound.
I checked the market: BTC 77423 up 0.4%, ETH 2247 up 0.95%, SOL 95.77 basically flat, ONDO, which was hit the hardest yesterday, bounced from 0.3943 back to 0.4101, up 5.5%, almost recovering all the losses from yesterday.
I should be happy, but I just can't feel it.
I went through today's hot list, and out of 20 items, only one was related to crypto—a P2P courier project released an MVON, with 4 people discussing it. The rest were all about France imposing a traffic tax, Tesla FSD, Eli Lilly weight loss drugs, a California shooting, and Starlink rescue.
Yesterday, some were shouting that ETH was oversold and a bottom was near, but today even those voices have disappeared.
The most dangerous time in the market isn't the day of the crash, but when everyone collectively goes silent after the drop. This suggests it might not have hit bottom yet; it feels more like no one is willing to spend money to test it anymore.
The only thing I glanced at twice was ONDO—no new news, yet it rose 5.5%, running an independent trend in the whole market. I just put it on my watchlist and didn’t take action.
In this kind of market, my easiest mistake isn’t chasing highs, it’s the itch to trade. When I get that itch, I just review my transaction history, and after that, the itch goes away.
Did you open any positions today? Anyway, I lost on one trade.