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BTC 4H, current price 80000.1, the major structure is a downward-shifting ABC corrective wave. Wave A fell from 86400 to 79700, with an internal 5-subwave decline; Wave B rebounded to 82400, representing a weak a-b-c correction with limited rebound strength. Currently running Wave C, subwaves C1 to C4 are complete, now in the C5 downward phase. The SQZMOM momentum indicator has slightly turned green, bearish momentum continues, no bottom reversal signal yet. Core resistance is 80400–80800, the C4 rebound high zone; price stagnates upon reaching this level, making it a priority shorting area; key support is at 79700, with downside targets at 79000–79300, and an extreme reference at 78400. Only a volume-backed break and hold above 80800 would invalidate the Wave C decline assumption, shifting the market to a wide-range consolidation; if it breaks below 79700, the C5 downward space opens. Overall bearish bias, not suitable for chasing longs, wait for rebound pressure before positioning; a break above 82400 would directly overturn this wave analysis. $BTC $ETH $SOL The $80,000 defense battle has begun! The Fed's hawkish signals combined with tech stock earnings reports are exerting dual pressure, causing the crypto market to be under broad stress. The fear and greed index remains at a neutral 51, with bulls and bears fiercely tugging at a critical psychological threshold. BTC: Volatile fluctuations around $80,000, briefly surging to $81,800 before the meeting, then dropping to $79,600 within hours after the decision, with a 24-hour low of $79,634. The daily RSI is about 47.6, in the neutral zone; MACD shows a bearish alignment but with a converging histogram. Resistance is near the SMA20 ($81,934), and support is around the lower Bollinger Band at $79,811. ETH: Fell below the $2,300 mark, down 2.42% in 24 hours, with four consecutive monthly declines totaling 12%. However, on-chain data shows 36% of circulating supply locked in staking at a historic high, accelerating the shrinkage of tradable chips; a bottoming volume signal has appeared on the 4-hour chart, with multiple tests of the lower Bollinger Band at $2,310 holding firm, indicating bearish momentum is waning. BCH: Leading the altcoin decline this round, plunging nearly 8% in 24 hours, dropping straight from a high of $304.28 to a low of $275.32, currently around $279.87, breaking below the 200-day moving average ($286.19), clearly signaling a weakening mid-term trend. The combined macro headwinds and tech earnings shocks are the core logic suppressing risk assets. If BTC holds $80,000, the market still has room to breathe; if it breaks down, altcoins will face even greater relative pressure #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $GOOGL $SNDK Nasdaq 100 futures plunge: Google "AI money burn" alarm sounds!!!! The main negative reasons are as follows: First, Google exploded: Q3 revenue and EPS both missed expectations, free cash flow plummeted to -$9.07 billion, full-year CapEx guidance as high as $205 billion, AI investment returns questioned, pre-market drop over 10%. Second, there is the industry chain transmission: storage chips (Micron, SanDisk, etc. down over 3%), Broadcom (Marvell down over 9%), AI computing power rental write-downs! Plus the hawkish Fed impact: Waller rejects forward guidance, 2 out of 10 votes support rate hikes, December rate hike probability rises! So the tech stock valuation re-rating has begun, Nasdaq futures down more than 1.3%, if tonight's PCE data exceeds expectations, risk asset pressure will further intensify! #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 When I look at prediction markets, I can't help but pay more attention to those headlines like “Bitcoin suddenly surges.” Unlike the usual buying coins and waiting for a rise, these have deadlines, and if it doesn't happen by then, it just doesn't happen. Low-probability events somehow make people think: what if? The potential returns look tempting, the stories sound good, and as more people buy in, the implied probability reflected in the price also gets pushed up, which doesn't necessarily mean the event is that certain. Just watching it, I have to admit this kind of excitement is quite enticing. But when it comes to the time left for it to actually happen, why does no one want to talk about that?Amazon will release its Q3 earnings report (July–September) after the market closes on October 29 Eastern Time, which is after 04:00 on October 30 (Friday) Beijing Time, with the conference call at 05:00. Last quarter, AWS revenue was $42.23 billion, up 37% year-over-year, which the company said was the fastest growth in 18 quarters. According to the company's constant currency basis, AWS growth has accelerated for four consecutive quarters since Q3 last year: 20%, 24%, 28%, and 37%. Last quarter, AWS operating profit was $16.6 billion, with an operating margin of 39.4%. AWS revenue in Q3 last year was $33.01 billion; this quarter's 37% year-over-year increase corresponds to about $45.2 billion. The company's guidance given in July for this quarter: sales of $197–202 billion, up 9%–12% year-over-year; excluding the impact of two Prime Day events over two years, the growth rate would be nearly 4 percentage points higher; operating profit of $22.5–26.5 billion, compared to $17.4 billion last year and $27.5 billion last quarter. The guidance assumes no impact from the revaluation of energy derivative contracts. According to CNBC citing LSEG data on October 25, the market expects this quarter's earnings per share to be roughly flat year-over-year, with double-digit revenue growth. #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XAU US GDP explodes, strong employment, will gold break below 4000 tonight? The two data points just released from the US are too strong: GDP rose to 3.4%, and initial jobless claims are only 194,000, indicating the economy is ridiculously good. This is very bearish for gold! With such a strong economy, the Federal Reserve definitely won't be in a hurry to cut rates, and high interest rates will continue to weigh down gold, making it hard to rise. Gold prices are currently being suppressed tightly, with no strength even for a rebound, hovering around 4036. As long as it doesn't break below the 4024 support, it can hold for a while; once it breaks, it will continue to fall. My strategy is aggressive short near 4030, and a conservative short opportunity if the rebound can't surpass around 4045. Stop loss above 4055, first watch 4025, if broken then continue to watch 4000. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥 After Google's earnings report, the stock price fell; cloud business is growing rapidly, but net profit and EPS are under pressure, and AI investment returns are once again the focus👀 ➡︎ Amazon, Strategy, and 3 other companies will successively release earnings reports tonight. Can their performance exceed expectations? 📊 Go to Outcomes to participate in predictions and complete tasks to earn XP. For more earnings highlights, Orbit continues to track!#d❗️❗️❗️Early morning Fed reveals major internal divisions! Crypto market surges then plunges, repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level Last night, the Fed held rates steady as expected at 3.75%-4.00%, but the vote showed a clear 10:2 split, with two members directly supporting a 25 basis point hike, signaling a strong hawkish stance. The market completely abandoned hopes for a rate cut by year-end, clearly expecting high rates to persist long-term, with a rate hike still possible in December. This statement directly influenced crypto market moves: Bitcoin $BTC briefly surged to a high of 81,800 after the decision, then quickly fell below 80,000, hitting a low of 79,600—a classic case of good news turning into bad news. Overall crypto market sentiment weakened rapidly, major coins collectively pulled back, altcoins fell even more, and contract short-term spikes and shakeouts became very frequent. 🤔 The core reason is simple: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously. In a high interest rate environment, risk assets like crypto lack sustained upward momentum. The inflow enthusiasm previously driven by ETFs has cooled off; now macro interest rates dominate, making any rebound a short-term pulse, unlikely to develop into a trend. The tech sector divergence in U.S. stocks also indirectly affected crypto risk sentiment: Microsoft’s earnings beat expectations and rose nearly 3% after hours, while Google’s disappointing results caused a nearly 10% drop, raising overall market risk aversion and further suppressing crypto bulls. Coupled with the latest core PCE inflation at 3.1%, stubbornly high, the Fed simply dares not ease. $SNDK $HYPE $SNDK 回调即将结束！最后一轮下跌结束，就会重新上涨！公开布局！ 为什么非要等1166，理由如下： 第一，盈亏比。现在1278进去，上方1300到1366全是套牢盘，向上空间有限；如果止损放在1080，风险高达近200点。而等跌到1166，那是前期的强筹码密集区，防守线非常明确，止损卡在1080，只用承担80多点的风险，去博200点的利润，这笔账才算得过来。 第二，技术面需求。这波从底部急速拉升超百点，短线指标已经超买，获利盘随时会砸盘。1278大概率只是个中继反抽，必须等它二次回踩，把浮筹洗干净。 第三，基本面逻辑。存储芯片的AI需求没崩，长期协议还在，这波下跌是被美股科技股整体杀估值错杀的。1166是情绪杀透、挤干水分后的黄金坑，在这里接多，赢面最大 #SanDiskMSCIRebalance 我的执行纪律非常死：1166附近挂单进场，止损无条件放在1080，有效跌破直接认输。第一目标看1260，突破了看1366。到了1260先平掉一半仓位把本金抽出来，剩下的让利润奔跑。中间价格每涨50点，止损就往上提30点，死死锁住利润。#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注OIL WATCH: HORMUZ REMAINS A CRITICAL RISK A proposed peace plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz sooner, but sanctions and nuclear negotiations remain unresolved. UBS has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $110 as supply risks and shipping costs persist. Oil’s next move may depend less on promises and more on whether reliable transit actually resumes. #HormuzReopeningPlan Currently, for those wanting to short $ETH, a better position is not to chase at the current price directly, but to wait for a rebound to around 2,350–2,370, and consider after confirming it can't go higher, with a stop loss set above 2,400. This way, even if squeezed, the loss is controllable. For those wanting to go long, there's no need to rush to buy at 2,310 either. You can wait for a stop-fall signal around 2,280–2,300 (such as a clear stop-fall candlestick on the 4-hour chart, or a second bottom test without breaking lower), then consider a light position, with a clear stop loss set below 2,250 or 2,220. The signals to really watch are actually simple: on the upside, see if 2,425 can be reclaimed; on the downside, watch if 2,250 will be broken with volume. Between these two levels, ETH is more likely to be in a repeated tug-of-war consolidation pattern rather than a clean one-sided trend. Leverage in contracts is most vulnerable to losses on both sides in this environment, so position size is more important than direction.Set the stop loss for $ZEC at the cost price of 1290.66, which is the wrong place for 50x leverage. Calculate clearly: the initial margin corresponds to a 2% fluctuation, a floating profit of 74.34% equals an extra buffer of 1.487 percentage points, totaling about 3.49% (relative to the opening price). From the current price of 1271.47, it needs to rise to about 1309.7 to trigger liquidation—1.48% higher than the cost price of 1290.66. This means: this position can fully withstand "falling and then rising back to the original point," even going up another 1.48%. The real danger zone is not at the cost price but at 1309.7. But this buffer is not wide: ZEC's intraday volatility of 2%–3% is normal, and a moderate rebound can consume most of it. Subsequent strategy: set the observation point at 1290 (an integer level + coinciding with the cost price), not 1309.7. Reduce position once it stands above—that time the floating profit will only have a very small part left, no need to wait for the break-even line. Reduce some at 1250 below, and reduce more at 1200. $SOL $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $MU, will the strong prices of AI memory trigger the next round of oversupply? Samsung and SK Hynix's chip profits hit record highs this quarter, indicating favorable demand and product mix; however, high profits will also stimulate capacity expansion. The key to cycle judgment lies in the proportion of HBM, long-term orders, and traditional DRAM supply discipline. If demand for high-bandwidth memory grows and supply expansion is controllable, profit margins will be supported; if capital expenditures lead to too rapid supply release, the market boom may have peaked.最脆弱的一环其实是BTC头顶那三条均线，FOMC只是背景音。 你有没有发现，真正被抢筹的并不是大盘？ 昨晚FOMC落地，10票赞成2票反对，按兵不动。听起来像小利好，但发布会里那句"通胀仍高"把12月加息的概率又摁在76%，风险偏好根本没松绑。 我盯盘时最直观的感受是：BTC冲到81000又软下来，不是不想涨，是上方套牢盘太密。MA20在81823、MA30在82619、MA60在81485，三条线叠成天花板，这种结构下想一口气突破，需要的是增量买盘，不是情绪。 真正有意思的是板块之间的强弱差。OKB昨天独自走强，背后是X Layer上RWA市值上周排到公链第三、交易量放大三倍，价格推到110，MA7的109.59已经被踩在脚下，下一步看MA20的115.40和MA30的118.48，这是突破后最常见的确认路径。它交易的不是利率，是生态叙事。 PEPE则是另一条线。Sun吸筹加上ETF预期，24小时现货量放大2.1倍到4586万美元，合约量1.7倍到5.879亿美元，这是联动带来的真突破，和加息关系不大。山寨里这种独立行情，说明部分资金愿意在BTC横盘时去搏弹性。 但风险也在这里：BTBlackRock, which manages $15.5 trillion, has issued $157.16M of its BUIDL fund on Aptos, more than 7% of the whole fund. Funds from Apollo, Franklin Templeton, Brevan Howard and Hamilton Lane are also tokenized on Aptos. $APT $HYPE trade 和纽约证券交易所的所有者 ICE 正携手将 Hyperliquid 上的全天候永续期货引入美国。 仅仅一年多的时间，我们在 Hyperliquid 上的市场成交量已超过 6500 亿美元。它们为股票、指数和商品提供持续的价格发现，成为传统市场关闭时零售和机构投资者信赖的参考点。全球大部分地区都在交易它们。直到现在，美国人只能旁观。 我们打算改变这一点。在获得 CFTC 批准的前提下，trade和 ICE 计划建立一个新的专门的美国市场，基于 Hyperliquid 构建创新的交易所和清算基础设施。计划中的合约涵盖股票、指数、商品、外汇和加密货币，通过参与的经纪商和平台提供访问。随着审批进展，我们将分享更多关于产品、资格和时间的信息。 ICE 拥有超过 25 年运营受监管市场、清算和风险管理的经验。trade则带来了 Hyperliquid 上最具流动性和稳健市场背后的产品开发、市场设计和技术。 创新与美国监管的保护不应是权衡。我们计划共同证明这一点。 ICE 正对 trade进行战略投资，并与我们一道构建 Hyperliquid 的未来。一小批市场杰出人士也将It seems like many people just can't grasp one point: not knowing when to exit the market Simply put, look at the timeframe. If you use the 4-hour K-line to decide the direction, then the 4-hour K-line determines how long you hold the position. Of course, if you're lucky, you can quickly get satisfactory profits. After finding the direction on the 4-hour K-line, you can enter the market using the 15-minute K-line to find a better entry point. Remember! It must be in the same direction. If you decide the direction using the 1-hour K-line, then enter using the 5-minute K-line. Of course, if you haven't exited when the direction is about to change, then this trade will most likely need to be held for a while. I think this is easy to understand, so you don't have to desperately hold on. When the direction changes, just be willing to cut losses. Generally, people who aren't greedy won't lose badly by just following this method!"The 160% on the screen is just a number; 3.11% is the reality." $ARB 50x leverage, 0.16526→0.17056, +160.35%. Don't be fooled by the percentage. With 50x leverage, the underlying asset only rose about 3.21% to generate this 160% paper gain. Conversely: if the price falls about 3.11% from the current mark price, this 160% unrealized profit will instantly vanish. The death of a high-leverage long position is never a trend reversal, but volatility. A normal market fluctuation or a profit-taking by bulls is enough to turn this fat gain into thin air. My trading logic is never driven by greed. The only action is: firmly move the stop loss above the cost line, turning this position into "a small amount the exchange owes me." If it doesn't exit, set a deadline; funding fees will turn inertia into losses. Survive, and the numbers are truly yours. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF The boss has something to say VanEck and Franklin Templeton are both launching new ETFs that include BTC allocations. VanEck created a multi-asset ETF targeting a 2% BTC allocation; Franklin Templeton automatically reinvests stock dividends into BTC, starting with a 5% allocation. I believe this is a key step for traditional asset management to "normalize" incorporating BTC into investment portfolios. Comments in the section are accurate: embedding BTC into multi-asset portfolios with a 2% target and a 1% to 5% adjustable range forms a small, sideline allocation rather than full exposure. Using dividend cash flow to continuously convert into Bitcoin exposure according to rules. This approach is smarter than directly launching a spot ETF. Previously, buying crypto was an independent speculative decision; now it becomes a component within portfolio allocation. The threshold is very low, and it represents long-term, automatic incremental funding. But don't expect it to drive the market up in the short term. This only changes the way existing funds are allocated and has not yet created large-scale incremental inflows. Today, BTC dropped 1.62%, and the market is still digesting the Fed's hawkish signals. BTC is now hovering near the 80,000 level. Let's see if it can hold here. If it can't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rally or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly. The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ The long-term AI storage narrative of SNDK has not been falsified, but the nature of the current price game has changed—the market is no longer pricing for "growth," but rather for "whether the acceleration of growth is sufficient." The bias is bearish, but only execute on the right side after "weakness is confirmed at the open"; shorting is a short-term expression driven by earnings events, not a denial of the long-term AI storage narrative.$ADA Midnight, this chain, had its first block generated on March 17, but it was only officially announced as fully launched today. Cardano-related projects always follow this pace—slow, but they really do get things done. I've basically given up on the privacy narrative these past two years; I was stubborn about it during ZEC's tenth anniversary. Midnight is Cardano's supporting privacy chain, directly linked to the ADA ecosystem. In actual testing, ADA was at 0.201, but it dropped 1% over 24 hours, hitting a low of 0.1954, with fees turning negative at about -0.9bp, and open interest only $27 million. The price showed no reaction at all. I've lost count of how many times I've called the privacy narrative dead; my face has been slapped once already. Now I've learned—chain launch doesn't mean money flows in; let's wait and see the trading volume for a month first. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Strategy马上要发财报了，大饼账面收益大幅反弹，这财报是不是要直接炸场？ 法老直接说，别光盯着“账面收益”这几个字，这财报的核心根本不是利润，是“融资能力”和“资产负债表保卫战”。 先看账面数据有多唬人。 大饼之前一度冲到87,000附近，而Strategy的持仓均价大概在75,400美元。这意味着什么？84.7万枚BTC，账面浮盈超过一百亿美元。按公允价值会计准则，这波收益会直接体现在财报的净利润里，数据绝对好看。 但法老得给你泼盆冷水，账面利润不等于真金白银。 第一，市场看的不是利润，是mNAV溢价。 也就是Strategy股价相对每股含币量的溢价。如果溢价没了，它就没法靠发新股买币。现在mNAV大概在1.2倍左右，比一年前的2倍多已经大幅缩水了。 第二，融资端压力很大。 之前靠着发可转债和优先股买币，现在优先股的股息率干到了11%以上，每年光利息就是一笔巨款。如果股价继续承压，融资成本会更高，这个“左脚踩右脚”的游戏就玩不转了。 第三，核心看管理层怎么说。 塞勒会不会在电话会上宣布新的融资计划？会不会继续增持？还是说像之前那样，先回购优先股、稳住资产$BTC Just saw Fidelity bring up that unrealized net profit and loss indicator again, now at 0.36. They have stats showing that historically, when it reaches this number, the median return over the next year is 93%. Sounds encouraging, but I always treat such backtesting stats as reference only, not as a basis for action. Today's reality is that it hovered around 80,000 for a whole day, OKX lowest at 79,709, Binance at 79,667, this leg tested twice but didn't break through. The fee rate is only 0.8 bp, and there's still $2.6 billion in open interest not exited, and those selling aren't rushing to chase. After so many days of grinding, I don't really believe in a crash; it seems more like no one wants to make the first move. I noted Fidelity's 93%, but my stance remains unchanged—if it really breaks 79,000, then we'll talk about the next leg. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 JUST IN: 🇺🇸 NYSE owner to bring Hyperliquid $HYPE perpetual futures to regulated US markets. $HYPE #HyperliquidPayout I suspect the US stock market will still fall; these past two days have been very strange. The US stock market is very resistant to decline, while Japan, South Korea, and Europe have fallen sharply. Maybe the US stock market is brewing something big? Just watching the drama unfold #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🌙 Evening session on 10.29: The decision has been made, but not all the shoes have dropped yet The 2:00 AM decision was as expected: interest rates remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, with a 10 to 2 vote; Cook and Harker continue to advocate for a 25 basis point hike. The statement changed the economic description from "solid" to "strong," inflation remains elevated, and Waller gave no clear guidance for December, only mentioning that financial conditions have tightened marginally but are not yet restrictive. The second shoe dropped at 8:30 PM tonight: Q3 GDP preliminary at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%; September core PCE monthly rate at 0.3%, meeting expectations. The combination of a strong economy and persistent inflation has pushed the odds of a December rate hike to around 85%—a pause is still possible, but the hawks remain on the sidelines. Looking at the market (current prices at 20:52): BTC 80054, ETH 2322, XRP 1.2904, SOL 100.54, all four coins down over the past 24 hours. Based on the 20:00 close, all four are below their 200-day moving averages, with RSI values of 43.4, 45.4, 36.6, and 44.1 respectively. XRP had just flipped bullish a couple of days ago but has fallen back into bear territory these past two days. My move: On a night of decisions and data, I won’t chase or guess the direction. The RSI is still some distance from the 30 entry line, so tonight I’m just watching the direction and not taking action. $ETH $BTC Super Data Week Finale! GDP Surges, Core PCE Remains High, Fed Completely "Lies Flat," Is the Crypto World Ready for a Cold Wave? Brothers, tonight's "super data" has finally all been released! The results are extremely polarized: the economy is scarily strong, inflation remains stubborn, but the overall price index unexpectedly fell. Combining these two charts, experts break down for you how this extremely contradictory macro data will impact our crypto positions: First contradiction: The economy is super strong, rate cuts are completely off the table! The US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly initial value recorded 3.4%, far exceeding the expected 3.2% and the previous 2.2%! This shows that the US economy is not only not in recession but accelerating wildly. However, under high inflation, the stronger the economy, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates. As long as rate cut expectations are suppressed, large asset classes like BTC, which heavily rely on liquidity, won't take off in the short term. Second contradiction: Inflation meets expectations but growth remains scary. The September core PCE price index annual rate rose to 3.1%, with a monthly rate of 0.3% (previous 0.2%), although both "meet market expectations," they are still far above the Fed's ultimate 2% target. Coupled with tonight's WTI crude oil still holding strong at $101, the inflation beast could strike back at any time. The Fed most likely has completely "lied flat" tonight—since the economy is so good, just maintain high interest rates and endure slowly. Third contradiction (illusion): GDP price index unexpectedly plummeted! VeryDon't simply think Google's big drop is just because of a weak earnings report! Wash's remarks early this morning planted a bomb for this valuation crash! Wash raised two key questions at the time: Has AI capital expenditure been overdone? Will high financing costs choke AI investments by big companies? To sum up his attitude in one sentence: The AI boom can't escape the suppression of high interest rates; it's not that you can just burn money freely by touching AI. This is what I often say: Macro determines whether money is expensive, earnings reports determine whether capital is willing to pay a premium. The higher the interest rate, the lower the market's tolerance for earnings report shortcomings. Now the market no longer cares about how much money is spent, but whether the investment can earn returns, looking at ROIC. Just as Wash raised this concern, Google's earnings report hit the bullseye. Google Cloud is growing rapidly, but burning cash fiercely, free cash flow turned negative, perfectly hitting the Fed's worry about AI overinvestment, so the stock dropped so sharply. Comparing with Amazon's performance in the same period, the timing was just too critical. Will AI stocks with high investment now all face valuation compression? If you want to follow up on big companies' earnings reports and track macro impacts on the AI sector, come to the homepage Research Club! #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $GOOGL $SNDK $SKHYNIX Good news that the Federal Reserve held steady only made Bitcoin happy for half a day. After the decision last night, Bitcoin first surged to around $81,700, then turned around and fell below $80,000 during the Asian session today, hitting a low near $79,600, and only barely recovered to around $80,050 in the evening, down about 1.3% in 24 hours. The ridiculous part is that money is actually flowing in: the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $137 million on Wednesday, totaling $424 million over three consecutive days, with $136 million coming from one BlackRock IBIT. But the price kept falling regardless, with about $356 million liquidated across the market in 24 hours, and the bulls chasing the rally got buried first. Honestly, this trend says more than the decision itself: holding steady doesn’t mean a green light; two officials still want to raise rates, and December is still uncertain. ETF is buying, price is falling — I usually don’t rush to conclusions on such divergence; let’s see if it can hold back up. I’m not chasing this rebound. It will only turn strong again if it holds above $81,698 (today’s 4-hour chart high); if it breaks below $79,263 (7-day low wick), don’t force it. In short: in a market where good news is priced in and then the price falls back, patience is more valuable than speed. $BTC $SOL $ETH [Pharaoh's Market Watch] There’s news again about a “reopening plan” for the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices have dropped. Can this decline continue? Pharaoh says straight up, don’t rush to celebrate. This plan is like a playboy’s promises—sounds good, but whether it can be done depends on real action. First, let’s see what the plan says. Iran has put forward a “7-day plan” again, with the same three conditions: the US lifts the maritime blockade, ends all conflicts, and unfreezes Iranian assets. If these are agreed to, Iran guarantees to reopen the strait within 7 days. But Pharaoh must emphasize, making this happen is harder than Pharaoh climbing the pyramid. Trump is busy with midterm elections; how could he possibly back down now? Frankly, this plan is a diplomatic Tai Chi—both sides are waiting for the other to blink first, and none of the real deadlocks have been resolved. So why did oil prices fall? Because the market is tired of the “wolf is coming” story, plus demand is indeed yawning, so funds are taking profits accordingly. But the underlying geopolitical conflict remains; oil tankers will still get hit. This drop is just a breather, not a trend reversal. What does this mean for Bitcoin? Oil price drops cool inflation expectations, US Treasury yields can ease a bit, which offers slight support for risk assets. But Bitcoin is stuck around 79,000, with 81,000 as a tough resistance and 78,000 as strong support. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ PEPE ALERT: MEMECOIN PRESSURE CONTINUES $PEPE is trading near $0.0000049072, down 2.39%. Buyers are struggling to maintain momentum as the broader market remains weak. Watch whether price can stabilize around current levels. A recovery needs fresh volume, while continued selling could extend the pullback. Don’t mistake a lower price for a confirmed bottom.MARKET ALERT: BIG GAINS MEET HEAVY SELLING $BEAT and $APR are leading the upside, but $DOS is facing a sharp decline. Meanwhile, $PEPE is down 2.33% and $GOOGL has slipped 1.57%. Price action is clearly diverging, so broad market strength cannot be assumed from a few green movers.MARKET WATCH: MOMENTUM IS SPLIT The latest snapshot shows sharp divergence across assets. $BEAT and $APR are posting strong gains, while $DOS faces heavy selling and $PEPE is also lower. This kind of mixed action makes individual price structure important. Watch for follow-through before assuming any move will last.$GOOGL's sharp drop this time is not due to a single data miss but because several core narratives failed simultaneously, breaking the previously optimistic market pricing for Google: 1. Google Cloud fell short of expectations; the AI cloud main storyline did not materialize. The market originally viewed Google Cloud as the most important second growth curve in its AI story: holding Gemini, self-developed TPU, theoretically capable of handling global AI computing power and enterprise model deployment orders. But this earnings report shows cloud business revenue growth and operating profit margin both below consensus expectations. Simply put: customers are willing to buy computing power, but Google Cloud has not delivered the high profits everyone imagined; the cloud monetization efficiency driven by AI is lower than Microsoft's Azure and even less than high-margin businesses like Anthropic that directly sell model APIs. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 PEPE ALERT: SPECULATIVE SENTIMENT UNDER PRESSURE $PEPE is near $0.0000049097, down 2.34%. Meme tokens can react sharply when market sentiment weakens, making volume and liquidity especially important. Watch whether PEPE can hold its recent range or continues to print lower prices. A recovery needs sustained buying, not just a brief green candle. In this market, chasing volatility can be costly.📊 Quick Breakdown * Price: $PEPE 0.0000048974 (-2.59% today) * Gains: +10.40% (7D), +80.05% (90D) * High/Low: All-time high reached $PEPE 0.00002825 in late 2024. It hit a local support low near $0.00000376 earlier this month. 🔮 Best Prediction Post PEPE is up over 80% in 90 days despite a 2.59% pull back today. Moving averages show strong support near $PEPE 0.00000450. If volume stays high, PEPE could test its recent peak of $0.00000523 soon. Just saw the large on-chain order data, and the market game instantly intensified. Such large positions at this level make people sweat nervously. Currently, BTC is hovering above 80,000, with two large short orders totaling 26.5 million USD, opened at around 79,800. They are now in a floating loss state. The most dangerous part is that the liquidation price for these positions is set at 80,860, less than 1% away from the current price, basically dancing on the edge. One of the large orders has a particularly intriguing stop-loss setting, with the stop-loss point at 80,865, only 3.71 USD above the forced liquidation line, leaving almost no buffer space. If the price slightly sweeps upward, it is very likely that the stop-loss and liquidation will trigger one after another, with almost no room for error. These large short orders concentrated near the same price level are a very critical market observation signal. If the price slightly rises, it can easily trigger a chain liquidation of short orders, creating a short squeeze rally. It is precisely this large-scale game that makes the volatile market especially mentally taxing; a small spike can directly decide the life or death of huge positions. Everyone should view these whale positions as market references only and must never imitate such high-risk heavy position strategies. Always leave yourself enough safety margin in trading, control leverage, and protect your principal. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 BCH ALERT: ONE OF TODAY’S BIGGER LOSERS $BCH is near $279, down 3.54%, with selling pressure pushing price toward the $275 area. If sellers break that recent low, further downside could follow. Buyers need to reclaim $280 and build above it to improve the short-term picture. Momentum remains weak, so watch for confirmation before assuming a reversal is underway.XRP ALERT: SELLING PRESSURE BUILDS $XRP is trading around $1.2916, down 2.59%. The coin is underperforming several major assets, showing that buyers have yet to establish a convincing recovery. The $1.28 area is worth watching for potential support. A break below it could deepen the decline, while reclaiming $1.30 would offer an early sign of stabilization. Confirmation matters more than a quick bounce.$MSTR will release its earnings after the market closes tonight, and the coins it holds are only about 6% above cost. Last week, it didn’t buy any BTC; instead, it used the money to repurchase its own preferred shares. Glassnode estimates the average cost for spot ETF buyers is around 81,500, and the coin price is hovering near 80,000, so these buyers are already underwater. The two largest buy orders: one has stopped, the other is stuck. At this point, I really have no idea who will step in. The profits mostly look good, supported by a tax asset reversal in Q3. I’m more interested in hearing from Saylor about where the money for future coin purchases will come from; preferred stock dividends have been changed to daily payments, so someone has to bear that pressure. The BTC in cold wallets remains untouched; I’m staying away from MSTR. If it really falls below its cost line, that’s when the company will have to face some serious questions. Do you think it will continue buying this quarter, or focus on preferred shares first? $MSTR $BTC #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Natural gas futures have just plunged again (intraday decline once exceeded 3%-4%, approaching around $2.84-$2.94/MMBtu), resulting from a triple resonance of fundamentals, capital flows, and contract technicals. The core reason remains that the warm winter expectation has completely destroyed the demand narrative, while the supply side is simultaneously exerting pressure, compounded by the self-reinforcement of short positions. --- 🥶 Core narrative: Warm winter expectations continue to strengthen, heating demand disproved This is the fundamental driving force behind this round of decline. Weather forecasts show that by November 9, temperatures in two-thirds of the U.S. East Coast will remain above normal levels, and the "Super El Niño" pattern may cause an abnormally warm winter this year. This means the core demand at the start of the winter heating season—gas for heating and power generation—is substantially weakened. The previously traded "early winter stocking" logic has been quickly disproved, and expectations for pre-heating stocking demand have clearly cooled. The annual peak demand for natural gas is in winter, and a warm winter means this peak will be flattened, causing prices to lose their most critical seasonal support. 🩸 Capital flows: Hedge funds record short positions, forming a "decline → add shorts" negative feedback loop CFTC data shows hedge funds last week established the largest natural gas short positions since data records began in 2013, heavily betting on price declines. As of the week ending October 20, short exposure on seven benchmark Henry Hub contracts reached 599,731 lots, with net short positions rising to 192,728 lots, the most bearish stance in over six years. This extreme concentration of shorts itself creates negative feedback: price falls → short profits → attracting more trend-following funds to join shorts → further pushing prices down. A trader at BOK Financial bluntly stated, "Before weather conditions change and drive demand growth, the market may continue the 'sell on rallies' trading strategy." 🏭 Supply side: Production rebounds to peak levels, inventories above five-year average While demand outlook deteriorates, the supply side moves in the opposite direction. U.S. mainland 48 states' daily production last week rebounded to about 113.3 billion cubic feet, returning to the record peak levels seen in August and September. Monthly production is slightly below peak (111.9 bcfd) but the recovery trend is clear. Regarding inventories, as of mid-October, total stocks are about 1% above the five-year average, with no shortage of buffer as the heating season approaches. LNG exports remain steady at 18.3 billion cubic feet per day (above September's 17.9 billion), but this is insufficient to offset the lack of heating demand, only serving to "limit the decline" without reversing the trend. ⚙️ Technicals: Near-month contract expiration amplifies volatility, oversold does not equal stabilization The near-month contract approaching expiration sees declining volume, and thin liquidity amplifies price drops. Gas prices have been in technically oversold territory for several trading days, but oversold alone is not a reason for rebound—the price decline accompanied by rising open interest indicates "new shorts entering" rather than "short covering," meaning downward momentum is still accumulating rather than fading. --- Summary: Today's renewed plunge in natural gas prices essentially reflects the ongoing realization of the "warm winter narrative." Weather forecasts have not turned colder, production has not continuously declined, short positions continue to self-reinforce, and technical pressure from near-month contracts has amplified the drop. Until any of these three core variables materially reverse, "selling on rallies" remains the path of least resistance. A true signal to stop the decline requires seeing sustained colder weather forecasts or a non-transient production drop, rather than merely oversold readings. (The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice.)Today's first bearish target for brothers: BTC 79500, ETH 2280. This morning it directly dropped to 79600, 2292. Basically, the strategy was fulfilled in one move. Currently, brothers can see the situation: US stocks are rising, but BTC may not necessarily follow; the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, yet BTC failed to make a strong breakout. So my idea is still on the right side, mainly shorting on rebounds. First observe if the supports at 79500 and 79100 can hold. If broken, continue downward to BTC 78200, ETH 2200. Long positions are also possible; if the downside doesn't break, take short-term longs on rebounds, or wait to firmly stand above the 82000-82500 range before going long. $BTC $ETH 美伊局势依旧是焦灼的状态，特朗普的言论更是无法当成当下有效参考，因为中期选举，特朗普的讲话哪些是真的意图，哪些是为了竞选服务，很难区分！ 但是通过美国军方高官不断換血可以看出，特朗普内部面对极大的压力，左手派万斯谈条件，右手又准备中期选举袭击伊朗，市场已经对这类消息逐渐麻木，这才是最麻烦的 #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ 既然特朗普方面找不到头绪，伊朗方面也没有最新动态，只能转头去看内塔尼亚胡的大选情况，如果内塔尼亚胡胜选概率更高，对美伊局势反而是一种暂时的压力放缓 截止目前，内塔尼亚胡的利库德党赢得多数席位53，但是相较2022年的64席位，显然依旧有很大的数字落差 席位争夺上内塔尼亚胡阵营赢了，但是组阁上难度却越来越大，对手党不用考虑，但是中间派阿拉伯党却占据了18个席位，理论上内塔尼亚胡可以拉拢阿拉伯党组阁，但是在选举前内塔尼亚明确不会与阿拉伯党派合作，所以如果与阿拉伯党组阁就违背了竞选承诺。 所以目前的形式，内塔尼亚胡能否顺利成为下一任总理依旧不能肯定，11月4日以色列公布大选结果，接下来就是维持数周的组阁，谁能顺利组阁谁就能成为下一任总理，如果内塔尼亚胡组阁失败Pre-market Overview: PCE and GDP Release Tonight at 8:30, Three Scenarios for the Crypto Market Tonight at 8:30, PCE and GDP data will be released simultaneously, likely causing noticeable short-term volatility in the crypto market. It is advisable to observe the correlation between the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets in advance. Scenario One: Strong Data. If both inflation and the economy exceed expectations, the market may delay pricing in rate cuts, the US dollar will strengthen, and BTC and ETH will face pullback pressure. Crowded longs can easily trigger consecutive stop losses, leading to a bearish market tone. Scenario Two: Moderate Cooling. If inflation declines and the economy approaches a soft landing, expectations for rate cuts will rise, US Treasury yields will fall, and funds may flow back into risk assets. BTC and ETH are expected to recover and rebound, with ETH potentially showing greater resilience. Short covering could amplify volatility. Scenario Three: Significant Economic Weakness with Only Slight Inflation Decline. Recession fears and rate cut expectations tug against each other, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears. This can cause rapid spikes, whipsaws, and wide oscillations, with no clear directional trend. The data night is about responding, not guessing. The above is for market review reference only and does not constitute any trading advice. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Tonight's Strategy earnings report, the whole network is waiting for Seller to call the shot and pump BTC—but first, the accounts need to be clear. That $20.9 billion "fair value gain" in Q3 looks impressive, but breaking it down reveals it's just numbers forced by accounting standards: 848,000 BTC at an average cost of 75,400, now just over 80,000, so the unrealized gain is only about 6%. If BTC really falls back to 75,000, that $20.9 billion for the quarter could disappear. What’s more worth watching is the change in actions: recently Seller hasn’t issued new debt to accumulate coins, but instead spent $176 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares. To translate—that means he’s repairing the balance sheet, not leveraging up to charge forward. The real catalyst in tonight’s call isn’t "how much was earned," but "how much new debt will be issued next, and how much BTC will be bought." No new financing plans means the good news is fully priced in. ETH is even colder, 2312 is still falling, BTC/ETH rate pulled to 34.5. Funds are hiding in BTC, altcoins are being drained. Strategy only buys BTC, not ETH, so tonight’s story has nothing to do with Ethereum. Don’t bet on the earnings report to pump the market, wait for the debt issuance before following. $BTC $ETH #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 A 10 million USDT prize pool can rewrite the leverage distribution more than any research report. Registration opens on October 29 and ends on December 2. WSOT 2026 almost covers an entire market cycle. The prize pool is entirely denominated in USDT, a crucial detail: it reorganizes funds that were originally lying dormant in wait-and-see or low-frequency positions into a batch of competitive capital chasing yield rankings. The newly added global asset track brings non-crypto targets into the same battlefield; the newly added AI track directly incorporates algorithm and model performance into the competition rules. The weight of programmatic and high-frequency trading is increased, allowing capital to circulate faster in the deep waters of contracts. For $BTC and ETH, the long-term trend may not change, but short-term volatility will be elevated. To widen ranking gaps, more people are willing to use shorter durations, higher leverage, and rapidly switch long and short positions, clashing head-on with slow and allocation positions. The liquidation threshold for this more-than-one-month period will be repriced. Two other events occur in the same time window. Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series G financing round, led by Sequoia and Wellington, with participation from Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Coatue, and a16z. Microsoft returns to the USD bond primary market for the first time in nearly a decade, issuing at least $25 billion in 10 batches, with maturities up to 2066. One event turns itself into a tradable asset, the other sets a new anchor point for the global discount rate. The intersection of these three lines is the pricing outlet for BTC and ETH.$BTC at 80000, is this a good bottom to buy? I think not!!! After BTC dropped from 84800, there hasn't been any decent rebound. On the 4-hour chart, it has temporarily stabilized around 80000, the decline has slowed, but the rebound highs keep moving lower — this is a weakening downtrend, not bulls regaining control! Indicators are recovering, but the price hasn't broken through; such rebounds can easily be pushed back down again. On the capital side, about $110 million flowed back on Monday, institutions haven't fully withdrawn, and some are buying near 80000, but with this little money, it can't push the price up. More importantly, this week the Fed meeting, GDP, PCE, and tech earnings all come together; any deviation from expectations could amplify volatility again. So I'm not optimistic this week; it looks more like a technical repair within a weak consolidation. Below, watch for support at 79400-80000; if it doesn't hold, likely down to 78000; above, resistance is at 81600-82000, then stabilizing above 83000 for a decent rebound, then talk about 85000. I'm not rushing to buy the dip nor chasing shorts now. 80000 has been sideways for so long, both bulls and bears are waiting for data: • If bad news hits but can't break below 80000 → it means there's support below • If the environment improves but can't break 82000-83000 → selling pressure above is heavier than expected Yesterday I entered a $ETH long at market price 2300, took a small profit of 60 points. Today I continue to wait for a good entry 👊 The big move is coming!!! $ZEC $MRNA Direction: Short · Entry: Light short position when rebound is resisted around 219 - 220. · Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks above 221 (above previous high). · Take Profit: First target 213, second target 208. ⚠️ Note: Previous high resistance is under pressure, MACD momentum weakens at high level, beware of a pullback after a spike. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for rebound resistance confirmation, enter light with stop loss.$CRCL corresponds to the USDC issuer Circle USDC is the most compliant stablecoin in the United States If the winning camp in this midterm election is more crypto-friendly, the stablecoin regulatory framework will be easier to implement. As a leading player, Circle will directly benefit, with business scale and market share further expanding! The overall market has already been continuously falling from a high level, digesting a large wave of profit-taking pressure. The downward momentum is gradually weakening, leaving some room for long-term accumulation Suitable for long-term betting on a big market move. If you fear missing out, you can enter a light long position at the current price. For stability, watch for a possible pullback near 75, with a long-term target above 100! $TSLA Direction: Short · Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 406 - 408. · Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks through 410. · Take Profit: First target 400, second target 398 (near previous low). ⚠️ Note: After a significant drop from a high level, the weak rebound shows weak MACD momentum, overall trending downward with fluctuations. Wait for rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.
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