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At the daily level, there is currently resistance at the 4200 daily level. Previously, the market fluctuated within this blue box for a long time. The upper boundary of this consolidation range is around 4200, which is a dense trading area. The price is now approaching this level. Once it touches 4200, there are many trapped positions above, plus panic selling from the previous breakdown here. 4200 is currently the toughest resistance for the bulls. If it can break through and hold above with volume, the daily-level reversal can be considered truly established. If it fails to break through, it will most likely continue to consolidate at the bottom.
Why can the daily level stop falling and rebound? Because of macroeconomic factors. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, coupled with a strong dollar. But now, with the midterm elections resulting in the Democrats taking control of Congress, gold has gotten a chance to catch its breath.
In terms of trading, a suggestion was given yesterday to buy at 4010. Those holding long positions should take partial profits near 4200 to guard against a sharp pullback after a spike. Wait for a pullback confirmation before looking for another opportunity. Only a true breakthrough and hold above 4200 will open the chance to target higher levels.
$XAU $XAUT $BTC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 On election night, the market cast a vote first.
Nasdaq 100 futures once fell 2.4%, but on 11/4 close, Nasdaq 100 was +0.91%, Dow Jones +3.03%.
From Buffett's 1969 partner letter: "I have always felt that assessing 'weight' determined by fundamentals is easier than assessing 'votes' determined by psychology."
The question is: which new policy will change a company's pricing power, regulation, or tax burden?
Analyzed according to Buffett's framework, this does not constitute investment advice$HYPE
Three consecutive pieces of news about HYPE this morning, all negative. The ETF had a single-day net outflow of $2,378,700, addresses related to a16z moved out a total of 233,000 tokens, and the Greeks said the midterm elections added uncertainty to its federal compliance path.
According to the usual script, these three combined would be enough to drop it by ten points. In reality, from the high of 88.99 it only lost 5 points, currently priced at 84.32, and it has risen 2.5% in 24 hours.
The fee rate explains the situation best. 0.00067%, more than an order of magnitude lower than the benchmark. Bulls are hardly paying anything, indicating leverage hasn't increased; this rise and fall is driven by spot trading.
The ETF's $2.37 million spread over OKX spot trading volume of $43.4 million in one day accounts for just over five points. The 233,000 tokens moved by a16z amount to $19 million, with profits only about $1.1 million, cost line estimated around 79, not a panic sell.
Open interest is $1.17 billion, barely moved in a day. Spot volume is 507,000 tokens per day versus perpetual contracts at 4.04 million tokens, an 8x ratio, which is relatively low leverage for this hot trend.
Bad news but no drop usually means two things: it hasn't reached the market yet, or it doesn't really matter. I lean toward the latter, but with a caveat—only when the fee rate returns to 0.01% will it indicate someone is truly betting real money on one side.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A wave of violent rebound has awakened a whale who had been dormant for 1 year to start selling coins.
An account that hadn't moved for a year suddenly showed activity 10 hours ago, first redeeming tokens from $AAVE, then selling $ETH and stETH worth 6.357 million USD on-chain, at an average price of $2428.
Just as the rebound started, they ran—Is this whale a bit anxious? $BTC
4259 coins, $344 million. Trump's media moved this batch of BTC to Crypto.com, an event at 11 o'clock.
My first reaction was to check the market reversal, to see if it was dumped out of a pit. It wasn't. Current price 80676, still up 5.7% in 24 hours, opened at 76312. After the spike to 81199.9 at 23 o'clock, it has been grinding between 79903 and 80941 for twelve hours, with volume dropping from 3 million contracts to between a hundred thousand and five hundred thousand contracts.
4259 coins is not a small amount. OKX spot only traded 9696 coins in one day, this single transaction accounts for more than 40%. If it were to be sold off all at once, the spot market volume should increase first.
The fee rate is still 0.01%, just matching the benchmark. Perpetual contract discount is 3.4 basis points. Open interest is 33353 coins, $2.69 billion, with no large inflows or outflows since last night.
Moving coins to the exchange and actually placing sell orders are separated by a step. Addresses like treasury companies can be used for custody, collateral, market making, or other purposes.
My judgment: this is just an accounting entry now, not a sell-off. If something really happens, it will first be seen in spot volume. When the volume doubles one day and the fee rate jumps again, then it means someone is running.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ What is the most important thing to pay attention to in a public blockchain project?
Is it the launch date, or what it can actually do after going live?
ACO recently shared an explanation about the timing of launching a public blockchain.
The team stated that having the technology ready and choosing the right launch timing are two things that need to be considered simultaneously.
ACO hopes the public blockchain can be launched in coordination with ACO Chat and related applications, so users not only know there is a new chain but can gradually understand which practical scenarios it supports.
I think this approach is worth paying attention to.
Because for users, remembering a launch date is not difficult; what really matters is whether it can be used after launch, what can be experienced, and whether it can sustain development.
The launch is a milestone; the real construction is still ahead.
#ACO #ACOChain #ACOChat #Web3大饼这波上涨结束了吗？目测还没有结束，因为下方的macd并没有出现背离，所以现在尽量不要猜顶做空，并且大饼现在正在走上涨之后的中继盘整，盘整区间81243-79792。大饼小时级别的W底成立，红框圈出的盘整区出现了结构的破坏，才有的后来涨到81000的这段上涨，别去看什么消息面就看好盘面就行了，盘面会给你你想要的答案。大饼突破红框圈出的盘整区小时级别的下跌就结束了，而且只要大饼能保持在79792上方运行小时级别就由原来的空头走势反转成多头趋势了，你就要顺着大红色箭头所标记的这段上涨等回调去做多了，而不是觉得涨的很高去猜顶做空。因为新的上涨趋势已经发起，你摸顶做空可能会摸在半山腰。做多大饼留意79792-78613的区间支撑在这个区间里等底部信号在去做多，大饼极限回调别跌破78613啥事没有，一旦回调跌破78613大概率就要走高挂还原，凌晨的时候我也尝试开了一笔小空单，但是下不去扫了我保护我就跑了，现在就得等回调去做多吧。 大饼带量突破80856右侧追多激进派上，80000带量跌破反抽无法收回右侧追空，带好止损。 大饼小时级别突破站稳80856向上看82000-82600，上不去8085$FIL FIL has been used as an ATM for a full six years, but the faucet has finally been shut off.
The genesis unlock is completely over, cutting daily new sell pressure by 75%.
It's like a leak that lasted six years suddenly being turned off by three-quarters.
On the market, shorts are still pressing down by muscle memory.
But there isn't that much cheap spot left in circulation.
Continuing to press down the price with the old tricks, once the held coins are dumped, I wonder what they'll use to replenish.
#FIL
$FIL
👇🔎 How to identify on-chain restrictions of tokens through a blockchain explorer?
Don't just rely on what the project team says; you can start with six steps:
1. Verify the correct token contract address;
2. Check transaction status and failure information;
3. Inspect restriction mechanisms in the public source code;
4. Verify administrators and key permissions;
5. Review historical transactions and permission changes;
6. Make a judgment based on comprehensive evidence.
Note: Discovering a pause function does not mean it is currently enabled; a failed transaction does not mean the asset has been frozen.
Next article: What are the differences between blacklists, whitelists, paused transfers, and transaction limit restrictions?
#ONEA #Web3 #区块链 🔎 How to identify on-chain restrictions of tokens through a blockchain explorer?
Don't just rely on what the project team says; you can start with six steps:
1. Verify the correct token contract address;
2. Check transaction status and failure information;
3. Inspect restriction mechanisms in the public source code;
4. Verify administrators and key permissions;
5. Review historical transactions and permission changes;
6. Make a judgment based on comprehensive evidence.
Note: Discovering a pause function does not mean it is currently enabled; a failed transaction does not mean the asset has been frozen.
Next article: What are the differences between blacklists, whitelists, paused transfers, and transaction limit restrictions?
#ONEA #Web3 #区块链 $XRP hackers dumped 233 million tokens, and with the unlocking selling pressure, XRP still surprisingly rose by 3.3%.
Inventory in exchanges has been consistently decreasing, and fees haven't spiked, indicating that all the spot whales are holding firm to absorb the chips, it's definitely not leveraged speculation.
After this biggest nuclear bomb drop, the price didn't fall, meaning the shorts are completely out of ammo; any bit of buying pressure can make it take off immediately.
#XRP
$XRP
👇表面安安静静没盯盘，账户反而顺得让我有点心虚。 是不是越不盯着K线，市场越愿意给糖吃？ 这两天我一直在想这个反差。前两天美国中期选举民主党拿下国会两院，我把它理解成对特朗普阵营的一次冲击，叠加当时情绪本来就压得很低，于是提前挂了一笔BTC试多。注意，是试，不是重仓信仰。仓位不大，止损也想好了，纯粹是想看看情绪会不会被点着。 结果行情走得比预期听话，BTC在低点附近始终没继续破下去，像有人在下面托着，空头砸了两下也没砸出深水花。这种跌不动的感觉，比一根大阳线更有信息量。 我现在的判断是，这更像启动前的试探，不是已经嗨起来的延续段。情绪从冰点往回修，价格先止跌，再等叙事发酵，节奏上通常不会一步到位。BTC稳住，ETH和山寨才有胆子轮番表现；如果BTC自己都站不稳，其他板块的热闹多半是假动作。 偏多的逻辑在于，政策预期给了情绪一个反弹的借口，低位不破说明抛压在减弱。风险也明摆着：选举结果带来的兴奋可能被提前计价，真正的政策落地还远，情绪退潮时回撤会很快。我更在意的是，市场现在交易的是预期差，不是确定性。 所以我的节奏是，小仓位试方向，不追高，不把一次顺利当成长期能力。趋势阶段看，现在还在启动$SUI tens of millions unlocked and dumped, yet SUI at 0.9 barely made a splash.
Spot buy orders directly chewed through the massive sell pressure; big holders who just got unlocked chips immediately staked and locked them.
The market is very clear now: bears are losing money daily holding hard around 0.9, unable to push the price down. If the price moves slightly up from here, these bears will have to line up to cut losses and lift the bulls.
#SUI
$SUI
👇First, to pour some cold water, seeking to abolish the tax does not mean the tax has already been abolished. The cryptocurrency community is seeking to repeal a 0.2% tax in Illinois: the tax is based on asset value rather than gains, and applicable brokers must withhold it from state clients. When I see this news, my biggest fear is that the market will directly translate "someone opposes" into "regulatory easing" and prematurely count the benefit in full.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the tax base is more critical than the tax rate. 0.2% looks small, but if the asset generates no gains, taxing based on asset value can still be a burden; a decimal point cannot relieve users' pressure. Second, the withholding responsibility falls on applicable brokers. My guess is that if the tax remains, related institutions will have to consider the cost of collection enforcement and compliance. This is more like a cost issue between local users and brokers and cannot be directly magnified into a benefit for the entire crypto market.
Of course, opponents may also push for change, and I am not bearish just for the sake of being bearish. If the tax is indeed abolished later or the scope of application is clearly narrowed, I will acknowledge the related cost pressure is reduced and adjust my judgment. But for now, the material only says "seeking to abolish" without giving a successful result. I will first watch whether there is any substantial change in the rules and not take demands as implementation.What I'm focusing on isn't $100,000, but 20x leverage 👀. Core Trader 80 has newly opened a $ETH short position this time, about 41.25 tokens, with a reference price of $2424.1. This is quite interesting, but what I'm more concerned about is: how much room for reverse volatility does this short position leave?
My judgment is that getting the direction right isn't enough; 20x leverage tests the timing of entry even more. Roughly calculating, if the price rises 1% against the position, the loss would be about 20% of the initial margin, excluding fees, so this can't be used to determine the liquidation price. High volatility can amplify momentum opportunities but can also cause the position to fail before the judgment is realized.
I will observe whether there is any position reduction later and how the position changes when the price rebounds. I don't treat opening a short position as a bearish conclusion. Which sector have you all been paying attention to recently? Facing this kind of volatility, would you prioritize lowering leverage or reducing position size? #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
"Moderna Approaches Q3 Earnings Release"
Moderna is about to release its Q3 earnings before the U.S. market opens on November 6.
This biotech star posted a net loss of about $800 million last quarter, and the entire market is watching closely to see if this fall's vaccine uptake can stop the decline.
Beyond regular vaccine sales, everyone is also eager to see how long the cash on hand can last and whether there has been any substantial progress in the oncology treatment pipeline. $BTC $SNDK SanDisk took a really hard hit, dropping more than 10% within 24 hours, AXTI also fell over 10%, and the US semiconductor hardware stocks are all down today. $BTC $ETH
The core issue is that storage has been overhyped in this cycle. The earlier price increase story was too smooth, and now that marginal expectations have loosened, institutional profit-taking has collectively come out to cash in. Even Kioxia is signaling that the momentum for flash memory price increases is weakening, and consumers are starting to resist the high prices.
Additionally, with the midterm election results finalized and the Democrats taking control of both chambers, expectations for stricter tech regulation have immediately intensified, and semiconductor hardware with high valuations is the first to be hit. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 ETFs are withdrawing, whales are buying, but the way whales buy is "very divided"
Looking at the capital flow, this is the most fragmented and easily overlooked structure in this rally.
ETFs are systematically retreating. On November 2, there was a net outflow of $398 million, followed by another $115 million outflow on November 3, marking the third consecutive trading day of bleeding, with a total of $1.157 billion over three days. Demand in the spot market has not simultaneously returned during this rally.
Whales are accumulating. CryptoQuant data shows that BTC whale total holdings have risen to 3.03 million coins, the highest since November 2025, with the 30-day accumulation speed being the fastest since February this year.
But whales are not a monolith. On Hyperliquid, BTC whale positions have turned net short for the first time since March this year; simultaneously, some whales sold 1,312 BTC to switch positions into ETH. OKX gave this structure a very precise definition: "Spot accumulation, contract shorting, switching to ETH" — this is not a unanimous bullish stance but a defensive, hedged, and divided structure.
ETFs are withdrawing, whales are accumulating spot positions but shorting contracts and switching to ETH. 81200 is not a "consensus price." 81200 is the result of several large funds with opposing directions probing each other within the same narrow range. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼财报前瞻$ZAMA is trading at $0.07215 (+2.77%), strengthening within its 24h range between $0.06485 and $0.07348.
Price is holding above MA5 ($0.07168), MA10 ($0.07098), and MA20 ($0.07060), after bouncing from the 24h low at $0.06485.
Driven by $9.51M USDT in daily turnover and 131.79M $ZAMA in 24h volume, holding above $0.07215 could open the way for a push back toward the $0.07348 high.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit $WIF is trading at $0.1747 (+2.58%), strengthening within its 24h range between $0.1676 and $0.1825.
Price is holding above MA5 ($0.1740), MA10 ($0.1727), and MA20 ($0.1720), after bouncing from the 24h low at $0.1676.
Driven by $7.13M USDT in daily turnover and 40.82M $WIF in 24h volume, holding above $0.1747 could open the way for a push back toward the $0.1825 high.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit During the election vote counting, Bitcoin once dropped to around 75,600, then bounced back above 80,000 the next day, reaching a high of over 81,000. ETH was even stronger, rising nearly 6% in a single day, back to around 2,430.
But what I care more about is one detail: futures trading volume increased by 27%, while open interest only rose by 3%. In other words, this rally was mainly short squeezes and old positions adjusting, not everyone starting to leverage up again to push prices higher. This kind of rise is cleaner, but it also indicates that new money hasn't truly come in yet. The spot ETF saw a net outflow of about 1.16 billion USD over the first three trading days.
So, I’m only watching two things next: whether the 76,000 to 78,000 range can hold, and when the ETF will turn back to net inflows.
Do you think this time 80,000 will hold, or will it fall back after shorts cover? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
First, let's look at the two employment clues that have already come out. ADP reported 86,000 new private sector jobs in October, higher than market expectations. The ISM Services Employment Index rose to 51.4, staying above 50 for the second consecutive month, indicating that the service sector is still hiring. Both signals are on the hot side, which is why the market is focusing on the official nonfarm payrolls at 21:30 Beijing time on November 6.
The general expectation is: about 60,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve held steady in October, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4%. CME FedWatch, using interest rate futures, estimates the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in December to be around 75% to 79%.
A common misinterpretation is that good nonfarm data is bullish for crypto prices. Since the Fed is still in a rate-hiking cycle, stronger employment means the economy can withstand further hikes, which tends to push up the dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC.
Consider three scenarios. If new jobs significantly exceed 60,000 and the unemployment rate falls, the probability of a December hike may rise further, reinforcing expectations. If the number is around 50,000 to 70,000, basically in line with expectations, volatility will likely come and go quickly. If it is significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the case for a hike weakens, and the December probability may drop.
The first candlestick after the release often moves in the opposite direction, so don't rush to chase. Nonfarm payrolls are just one piece of the puzzle; inflation data will also need to be considered.#US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Outcomes Are Worth Watching?
US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Outcomes Are Worth Watching?
US Stock Market Intraday Quick Review (November 4, 2026): Are Semiconductors Being Squeezed?
A quick glance during the session: Nasdaq rose 1.01% to 26691, S&P +0.44%, while Dow only gained 0.24%. The indexes look positive, but the pocket-switching action underneath is fiercer than yesterday.
Where is the money coming from? Apple was still under pressure intraday, down over 1%, with the knives of A new chain announced a trading volume of 100 billion USD, and most people's first reaction is that it's a numbers game. But Robinhood Chain's 100 billion was generated on Uniswap, not self-generated, which is worth a closer look.
Laying out the data: 100 billion USD is its cumulative trading volume on Uniswap; at the same time, it cooperates with Arbitrum, providing 1.8 million USD for developer grants, with a maximum of 100,000 USD per team. The logic connecting these three numbers is clear—first use Uniswap's existing liquidity to solve the "someone to trade" problem, then use cash grants to solve the "someone to build" problem.
Mechanically, this breaks cold start into two phases. Liquidity is borrowed from others, saving the cost of market making from scratch; developers are attracted with subsidies because applications are what retain users. The competition among public chains has long ceased to be about TVL size, but about whether there is anything playable on-chain. $UNI, as the recipient, gains an additional volume; $ARB gets the ecological expansion credit; $ETH benefits as the settlement layer.
My judgment is that "borrowing liquidity plus buying developers" will become the standard move for new chains. It is cheaper than simply issuing token incentives and harder to copy—money can be printed, but Uniswap's liquidity depth cannot.
One point worth considering: 1.8 million USD is not a large amount in public chain grants, more like a test. After the money is spent, how many active addresses remain on-chain is the real answer.First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the price moves against you and the margin is insufficient, even on-paper profits can't prevent liquidation. When I see this kind of news, I usually cover the profit numbers first to see how much risk-related information remains to assess.
According to Odaily monitoring, a certain address increased its long position by 3,875 ZEC from 09:09 to 10:07, raising the holding to 15,000.19 ZEC. The current long position is worth about $19.65 million, with the contract account's cumulative profit around $21.35 million.
My judgment is that the information gap in this news is more important than the profit figures. ⚠️ Cumulative profit is based on the account level and cannot be fully attributed to this ZEC long position; the data doesn't provide leverage or margin details, so it's impossible to estimate how close it is to liquidation. If the price moves against the position after increasing holdings, the loss amount for the same volatility would also be greater.
A reminder for ordinary people: when budgeting risk for a single trade, include slippage; the stop-loss price is not the final loss limit. First, clearly define how much you can bear, then look at others' profit screenshots. The upcoming market conditions, whether it's the US Nasdaq or the crypto circle $BTC, are at hellish difficulty.
The most tormenting thing is not the one-sided sharp drop, but this wide-range oscillation that neither rises nor falls decisively. I completely understand why he closed all short positions. With a negative event like Binance being hacked hitting the market, the price surprisingly didn't continue to break down—typical "should fall but doesn't" behavior. The momentum of making money by shorting over the past year makes holding short positions here feel like walking a tightrope every day. Looking back at the market these past two days, this rally is entirely due to short covering and a stampede, with no increase in spot volume. Who dares to chase this kind of short squeeze pulse?
But asking me to switch to long now? Absolutely not. US interest rates are stuck tight, ETF funds have had net outflows for several consecutive days, and the non-farm payroll report tomorrow night is still an unknown factor. The macro environment simply doesn't provide confidence. Many people are still stubbornly hoping to replicate the 2023 pattern of a breakout, pullback, and explosive rally. Please, without new money coming in, what can support the dense trapped positions above 82,000?
The most heartbreaking thing is where the funds are going. While we keep getting harvested back and forth in this stagnant crypto pond, smart money is going to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to buy CQQQ and KSTR, bottom fishing and making profits. This is the real preference of smart money now: seeking oversold recovery opportunities across markets, rather than stubbornly fighting in the zero-sum mud pit.
So my only move now is to keep my hands off. Unless a super large volume bullish candle comes to reverse the structure, or the US stock market hits an extremely panic-driven high-volume low, I'd rather miss this rebound than go in as cannon fodder. From 4.9 to 0.01: What Have We Learned from CORE's "Zeroing" Path?
CORE once reached a peak of $4.9 riding the BTCFi narrative, but has now slid all the way down close to $0.01. This massive drop serves as a wake-up call for participants in the sector.
The market collapse was not caused by a single negative factor; the root cause is the resonance of multiple pressures. Tokens have been continuously released for 81 years, with relentless inflationary selling pressure suppressing the coin price over the long term; the original burn mechanism was adjusted, and deflation expectations were dashed. Meanwhile, the project's proposed ecosystem profit buybacks are non-binding commitments, and ecosystem revenue cannot keep pace with inflation. At the same time, controversies over project decentralization and competition from rival projects in the sector have continuously eroded market confidence.
The most important lesson this event brings to investors is: no matter how grand the narrative, the token economic model cannot be ignored. Many were attracted by the "Bitcoin-linked" promotion but overlooked the risks of long-term token release. A mainnet that is truly operational does not equate to a token having sustained upward momentum.
The market must always distinguish between "technical implementation" and "token value capture" and avoid relying solely on hype and stories to heavily invest. No matter how promising the sector, one must be wary of the long-term downward risks brought by inflation, unlocking, and unmet expectations. Nonfarm payrolls hit tonight! Besides watching the December rate hike expectations, what exactly is the impact on the US stock market and Bitcoin?
What can be seen is that the current market has priced in nearly an 80% probability of a rate hike. Tonight's data will determine whether the market sees the rate hike as fully priced in and negative news exhausted, or if tightening expectations will explode directly.
$BTC is extremely sensitive to USD liquidity and US Treasury yields. If tonight's nonfarm/payroll data again surprises on the upside, US Treasury yields will surge, and a short-term drop and suppression are inevitable, so beware of leveraged long liquidations; conversely, if the data cools significantly, the dollar will retreat, and BTC is very likely to experience a rapid short squeeze rebound!
Data that is too strong is a heavy blow to US tech stocks because the risk-free discount rate is continuously pushed higher, putting valuation under selling pressure; but if the data is too weak, the market will start worrying about an economic recession, so what US stocks like most is a lukewarm scenario.
Tonight, the focus is mainly on average hourly earnings. If wages don't come down, tightening won't stop. Also, one more thing: the truly brave have already opened positions and are leaving it to fate.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Will CORE become the next LUNA? An in-depth analysis of its "inflation" and "buyback" deadlock
Many investors compare CORE with the once-collapsed LUNA. Although their underlying architectures have fundamental differences, CORE's token economic model hides potential risks.
The core reason for LUNA's collapse was its dual-token algorithmic stablecoin design. After UST de-pegged, LUNA could be infinitely minted, ultimately triggering a death spiral. In contrast, CORE has a fixed total supply capped at 2.1 billion tokens, with no infinite minting mechanism, theoretically preventing a rapid collapse like LUNA's.
The real risk comes from long-term inflationary pressure. CORE's block reward release cycle lasts up to 81 years, with tokens continuously flowing to miners and stakers, causing sustained selling pressure over time. Meanwhile, the project has adjusted its plan by canceling the original continuous burn mechanism, significantly weakening deflationary momentum.
The project team hopes to hedge inflation through token buybacks funded by ecosystem profits, but buybacks are not contractually guaranteed. If the BTCFi ecosystem underperforms and revenues fall short, buybacks will become empty promises, and the prolonged token release cycle will continue to suppress the token price. $ETH $ETH rebounds 7% and it's a climax? Bulls are running naked
Excited just because ETH rebounded 7%? Don't fool yourself. OI rose over 7%, funding rates are still in the positive range, bulls are running naked entering to catch the falling knife. The fear and greed index is only 27, still in the fear zone, who is chasing the rally? Simply put, it's shorts covering + bulls bottom fishing, two groups fighting, no clear direction yet. BTC dominance is 58.5%, ETH has dropped 45% in a year, and you get excited just after one day of rebound? My judgment is short-term consolidation, 2450 is resistance, if it can't break through, it will retest the bottom. Bulls are dreaming, thinking it's a V-shaped reversal. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic
$ Sony’s long-term growth depends on more than PlayStation hardware sales. Digital gaming content, streaming services, and recurring music licensing revenue are becoming key profit drivers. Strong performance in these segments could help offset weaker console demand and support earnings stability through the holiday season.
$SONY Whale daddy ran away! The so-called top VC in the crypto circle, a16z, is selling $HYPE
In the past 16 hours, a16z has deposited a total of 148,145 HYPE to major exchanges, with a total value of 12.63 million USD, at an average deposit price of $85.26;
As the largest external entity of HYPE, it started transferring 233,000 HYPE on October 30, worth over 20.6 million USD. If sold, it will gain a profit of 1.141 million USD!When I saw this message, the first thought was: for the same long position, the risk and reward could be completely different for those who entered early versus those who came later. Someone willing to keep adding means there is a willingness to take on the position, but that doesn't mean the current odds are favorable.
According to Odaily monitoring, from 09:09 to 10:07, a certain address increased its long position by 3,875 ZEC, raising the holdings from 11,125.19 to 15,000.19 ZEC. Among this, from 09:40 to 09:55, about $5.07 million was opened at an average price of approximately $1,308.47, with the contract account's cumulative profit around $21.35 million.
My judgment is that this is somewhat bullish for $ZEC in the short term, but it offers limited proof for sustained price increases. The new long positions indicate this address is willing to take on more risk, but it doesn't prove that more independent capital agrees with this price; the account's cumulative profit also cannot be directly taken as the success rate of this additional position.
I would break it down into two scenarios, which is my speculation: if broader follow-up support appears and the conditions for invalidation are clear, this message can help evaluate the expected value of participation; if only a single address continues to accumulate positions without price response, concentrated holdings might actually amplify volatility upon exit, making it unwise to take risks based solely on this message.
For me, the conditions for invalidation are more important than profit screenshots. Facing such a large holder adding positions, do you value the success rate after waiting for confirmation of support more, or do you prefer to participate early but must limit risk with defined odds? Researcher Adam from Greeks.live stated on X that the U.S. midterm elections have increased uncertainty around crypto policies such as the Clear Act. According to him, Trump previously publicly supported Hyperliquid and instructed the CFTC to explore federal compliance pathways; the election results will impact the prospects and pace of related legislation implementation.
From this news, I judge that short-term sentiment is under pressure, but it cannot yet be directly inferred as a long-term negative. For derivatives sectors relying on U.S. compliance expectations, the impact will be more direct because the market is not waiting for mere support statements but for enforceable rules.
📌 Using this as an example to explain a concept to newcomers: policy statements do not equal compliance approval. Take the phrase "exploring federal compliance pathways" from the material—it means investigating how to proceed, not that the path is already cleared. Without clear rules, how business can operate and when it will be implemented remain uncertain.
Adam also mentioned that after derivatives become widespread in the U.S. and the AI investment bubble subsides, crypto might attract more funds. This is a conditional projection, not that funds have already entered. Newcomers often mistake "might" for "certain" and then use high leverage to bet on it; but leverage won't wait for policies, and volatility may first deplete margin.
What I will focus on next are the rule texts and execution progress, not treating supportive statements as implementation notices. The midterm elections are settled, with the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
In the next two years, Trump will mostly be limited to rhetoric, with his actions heavily restrained.
Expect tariffs and geopolitical tensions to be directly eased:
The main storyline is the cooling of US-Iran conflict, with oil prices plunging first.
Iran remains tough in words, but for Iran, as long as it’s not the Trump faction, negotiations should be possible.
The Russia-Ukraine situation is similar; after the Democrats solve the oil price issue, the constraints from Russian oil will also weaken.
Moreover, the Democrats will not interfere with the Federal Reserve’s independence, easing tensions between the administration and the Fed, reducing variables in interest rate hikes.
Uncertainty will be largely cleared, and trade conflicts will decrease significantly.
Regarding verifiable capital flows:
$BTC dipped to 75,600 before a V-shaped rebound to 80,000, with prices pricing in the positive outlook ahead of time.
However, capital flows have not warmed up simultaneously; on 11/3, US spot BTC and ETH net outflows were about 116 million (three consecutive days, significantly narrowing);
Spot $ETH outflowed 85.35 million on the same day, marking seven consecutive days of withdrawals.
The market leads, but the spot channel has not yet turned positive.
US stocks and $BTC have begun pricing in the positive outlook.
But note:
The power transition will not occur until early 2027; currently, Trump still holds power.
Black swans could appear at any time, so don’t blindly chase expectations.
There is a dual-currency hidden order to buy $BTC at $77,000; judging by this trend, it will most likely be missed.The 80,000 level is so flat it makes people sleepy.
It looks like a psychological barrier, but it's actually a ledger barrier—ETF costs and corporate treasury costs all pile up along this line. If it falls, institutions collectively suffer unrealized losses; if it rises, it hits the 85k selling pressure wall. Volume contraction and deleveraging aren't finished yet, so neither bulls nor bears dare to move first, just grinding here.
The rebound when the midterm election shoe dropped looked more like short covering, not a trend reversal. Without volume returning, 80,000 is just a transit station, not the end point.
The script is simple:
• Break and hold above 81,000 on volume → target 85,000
• Break below 76,000 → look for support around 73,000-75,000
Don't guess the direction now, don't trade frequently. The sideways movement is the main force shaking out traders, not giving you money. Wait for a breakout signal; it's more comfortable than guessing the bottom.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
The boss has something to say — The midterm elections have concluded, the Democratic Party swept both chambers, yet the coin price rose above eighty thousand: the negative news didn't shake the market, shorts are actually supporting us.
The Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House. Elizabeth Warren is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee, casting a shadow over the CLARITY Act; House Democrats are discussing new legislation on crypto market structure, possibly expanding SEC regulatory powers and adding conflict of interest constraints. Regulatory headwinds are real, but the market only hesitated briefly before turning upward: BTC is currently around 80,600, rebounding about 6.4% from the 24-hour low of 75,736, with a high of 81,196; spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, with a net outflow of about $116 million on November 3, and ETH ETFs have had seven consecutive days of net outflows — this rebound is more about short covering than institutional inflows.
If you bought more at eighty thousand, your current unrealized profit is about 0.75%, entering at a psychological breakout point, following the trend; but the resistance at 81,196 is the 24-hour high, and 84,482 is the previous high from October 21. Chasing high positions must include stop losses: if it falls back below 78,960, it's a false breakout, and longs should exit. Regulatory headwinds remain, ETFs have not turned positive, so treat this as a rebound and don't max out leverage just because others' short positions got liquidated.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard
What happens after the midterm elections in history?
Historically, after midterm elections, asset prices almost always first undergo a period of pain, then enter a long recovery phase lasting about a year. But this time, the cycle position of Bitcoin challenges this historical pattern.
1. U.S. Stocks: Post-election short-term calm, likely rise after one year
Since 1946, the S&P 500 has recorded positive returns in the 12 months following every midterm election, 20 times without exception, with an average gain of 14.4%. But don’t expect an immediate surge right after the election; the average increase on the first day and first week post-election is only 0.2%, and about 1.1% after one month. The largest pre-election drawdown averages nearly 18%, with pressure released before voting and a slow recovery afterward.
2. Bitcoin: Drops in the weeks after the election, considerable gains after one year
Bitcoin has experienced three full midterm election cycles—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—and in the weeks following each vote, it initially dropped. However, the price one year later was higher than on election day, with gains of approximately 25%, 45%, and 92% respectively. Short-term pressure after elections is almost a historical norm.
3. But the 2026 cycle position is very special
The past three midterm elections occurred deep in bear markets two to two and a half years after halving events, with prices 67%-73% below their peaks. This time is different—by the 2026 election, the price will be only about 36% below its peak, a significantly shallower drawdown. 2026 is a cycle exception and historical patterns cannot be simply extrapolated. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC The chip distribution pattern of Bitcoin is completely different from the early days.
A large amount of chips in circulation have been dormant for a long time, and many addresses have not transferred out for years. This part of the supply is difficult to flow into the market.
The stock held by leading exchanges is not exaggerated; more chips are dispersed among listed companies, spot ETFs, and various sovereign entities.
Another portion of chips is held by early genesis addresses, basically in a sealed state.
Coupled with the halving, mining costs continue to rise, and the marginal supply from mining output is decreasing.
The entire chip structure leans towards institutional dominance, with institutional funds having longer holding periods and relatively stable trading behavior.
This holding structure will provide long-term support to the market, and the long-term outlook is optimistic.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ETH rose 7% overnight, but what I care more about is that it outperformed $BTC
ETH is now around 2429, with a 24-hour low of 2226; during the same period, BTC rose about 4.7%. The ETH/BTC rate returned to 0.0301, after hitting a low of 0.0294 yesterday. Analysts on X are sharing the same chart: this rate closed above the months-long downtrend line.
I'm optimistic about this wave, and the reason lies in the contracts: the position value increased from about 5.35 billion U to about 5.75 billion U in 24 hours, yet the funding rate remains slightly negative. Price up, positions increased, but the rate hasn't turned positive, indicating that not all new entries are leveraged longs; shorts are still holding strong. In this structure, forced short liquidations could actually fuel an upward move.
On the other hand, to be clear: on 11/2, the US ETH spot ETF still saw a net outflow of about 140 million USD, so institutional money hasn't returned yet. Therefore, this wave looks more like a rate correction rather than a new round of big capital inflow.
What I'm watching is whether ETH/BTC can hold above 0.03. If it holds, the idea of altcoin rotation gains credibility. #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 03:27 There's a court document that almost no one shared. The Southern District of New York rejected CMA's request to suspend the temporary restraining order on single-stock perpetual contracts, stating that the plaintiff couldn't demonstrate imminent harm, and instead believes the CFTC's claim of overreach has a chance of winning.
In other words: single-stock perpetuals can't be shut down in the US for now.
At the same time, the SNDK token is at 1033. Opened at 1111 in 24 hours, highest 1150, lowest 1016, down 7%.
What really made me pause is the open interest. Yesterday afternoon it was 115,000 contracts, now 137,000 contracts, nearly a 20% increase; the price dropped from 1130 downward. During the drop, no one fled, everyone was adding.
The fee rate is 0.0484%, nearly five times the benchmark, longs pay every 8 hours to hold on. At 00:00 the price dipped to 1016, and open interest increased by 8%.
I didn't take this position, watching it hurts my hands for them. The product's life is saved, but the stock itself isn't protected—two separate things.
At 03:00 the open interest was only 27,000 contracts, at 23:00 it was 240,000
# A slab of pork belly called USDC on the cutting board just had a 49% increase sliced off, but the reserve income on the stove side seems to have had 8% of its oil drained away—this dish smells good, but the heat is starting to get tricky.
Circle's Q3 ledger looks like a kitchen production order: revenue and reserve income rose 17% year-on-year to $865 million, while continuing operating net profit only increased 5% to $226 million; turnover rate was boosted by a 49% surge in USDC on-chain transaction volume, but as the reserve asset yield dropped, reserve income fell 8% to $658 million. Translated into kitchen terms: more customers, the wok is hot, but the broth's oil layer is thin; a good flow doesn't equal thick gross profit. USDC is the main dish here, a clear broth base—large volume, stable, and can't go wrong; on-chain transaction volume is the speed of serving, 49% means the front hall is pushing orders hard; reserve income is the slow-cooked old broth, if the fire is low, the flavor sinks.
The real highlight is the Arc chain token presale, $182 million in income, like a limited-time secret sauce that, once opened, overpowers the aroma of "other income." But no matter how strong the sauce is, it can't be the main dish; it can make the quarterly report fragrant, but may not be replicable every day. The market linkage of the US stock token XDELL is like a co-branded menu sign at the neighboring stall: when risk appetite heats up, funds move from the stablecoin soup pot to the stock grill; when risk appetite cools, they come back to the soup. But the kitchen fears most mistaking the co-branded menu for a regular menu, or the one-time presale for the base broth.
This Q3 dish isn't a stir-fry explosion, but a steady fire with cracks: the main dish USDC is hot enough, the seasoning Arc is strong, but the broth reserve income is thinning; if the spicy chili of leveraged contracts is sprinkled more fiercely, the taste is initially pleasant but the stomach suffers later. The five-star chef looks at the ratio, not the size of the plate, only whether the main flavor holds up in one bite—this dish, main dish hot, seasoning strong, broth thin. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%Bitcoin stands back at 80,000, and it still rose despite the Democratic Party's big win
— The market had already priced this result in before the election, so once the shoe dropped, the panic actually dissipated.
So why do some people say a crash is coming? Three accounts.
First, history. Since 2010, after every midterm election, Bitcoin has risen in the following year.
But before each rise, there was always a crash: after the 2018 election, it dropped 49.7% six weeks later; in 2014, it dropped 39.8%; in 2022, it dropped 18.5%.
All three started the same way: a sharp drop first, then a year of rising.
Second, the starting point. Historically, those big post-election rallies all came from big drops — first a thorough fall, then a rebound a year later.
This time it's reversed: Bitcoin already rose 20% in the three months before voting, skipping the usual initial drop this year.
Third, the buying side. Sellers have paused, but buyers haven't caught up — ETFs have withdrawn funds for three consecutive days.
The calendar isn't favorable either: Bitcoin closed down in October this year, and historically, in years when October closed down, November fell three out of five times.
After these three accounts, the bottom line is: first a fall, then a rise — no exceptions in history.
This time, the expected fall hasn't happened yet, and buying hasn't picked up.
That's the script, but whether it plays out depends on the market: if it does, expect a 20% drop to halfway, corresponding to 64,000 to 40,000; if not, it would be the first time since 2010.The curve on the monitor representing data center revenue suddenly shifted from flat to steep, like ventricular fibrillation being shocked back to sinus rhythm—but don’t rush to unplug yet; what really matters isn’t the alarm sound, but the distal perfusion. AMD’s Q3 revenue grew 45% year-over-year to $13.377 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.09, both exceeding expectations; data center revenue surged 97% to a quarterly record of about $8.5 billion, with Q4 guidance around $17 billion, above market expectations. Lisa Su even projected at least 80% growth by 2027 during the earnings call. This isn’t just a faster heartbeat; it’s like the main coronary artery suddenly reopening under angiography, with blood flow rushing back into the ischemic area.
But a cardiac surgeon’s instinct is: main vessel reopening doesn’t mean microcirculation is saved. The data center business is the left anterior descending artery, AI computing demand is myocardial oxygen consumption, and US stock on-chain certificates like $XPL are more like the distal capillary beds. The earnings report is the contrast agent, telling us the large vessels are open; $XPL’s correlation is just a bit of marginal blood flow seen bedside by postoperative ultrasound. It may lag or show coronary steal: high perfusion in the main vessel steals pressure, making the distal target appear to rise, but actual trading depth and spread already show signs of low perfusion. If $XPL rises but volume is insufficient, that’s myocardial stunning, not contractile recovery; if AMD’s earnings are strong but $XPL diverges, that’s ectopic rhythm, indicating the conduction system isn’t keeping up.
The $17 billion Q4 guidance is the vital signs in the postoperative ICU—looking good but still perioperative. The commitment of at least 80% growth by 2027 is an assumption of long-term graft patency, not current perfusion pressure. When valuation myocardial hypertrophy occurs, any liquidity spasm, interest rate burden, or expected dehydration can instantly imbalance supply and demand; on-chain US stock certificates also carry perioperative risks of nocturnal low perfusion, spread widening, and clearing embolism. What I need to monitor isn’t price screams, but coupling: data center growth rate is ejection fraction, gross margin is perfusion pressure, guidance is extracorporeal circulation plan, and $XPL’s synchronization relative to AMD spot is whether the heart rhythm is regular. Weak coupling means conduction block; wide spread means increased microthrombus load.
This isn’t cardiac arrest, it’s myocardial stunning under high-pressure perfusion; the real lesion is in the distal microcirculation, not in the monitor’s alarm sound. #amdq3datacenterup97%$SNDK $INTC
An analysis of the sharp declines in SanDisk and Intel reveals that the core issue is the sector-wide resonance caused by the peak of the storage price increase cycle and the collapse of PC demand.
For SanDisk, Kioxia has warned that AI-driven flash memory price hikes are fading, causing SanDisk's price gains to plummet; SanDisk's own price hike contributions are shrinking, consumer business is continuously falling sharply, and coupled with the expectation of supply-demand turning positive in 2027, confidence in pricing power is shaken.
Intel, on the other hand, issued a Q4 guidance far below expectations, clearly bearish on PC demand through 2027, with rising memory costs squeezing gross margins, and an accident at its Israeli wafer fab adding to foundry concerns.
These two form a negative feedback loop: storage price hikes → rising PC costs → suppressed replacement demand → weakening storage demand expectations → collapse of the price hike logic. The market is re-pricing the AI hardware supercycle, shifting from unlimited trading imagination to questioning payback and price hike potential.
In the short term, attention should be paid to SanDisk's spot price stabilization, consumer revenue stabilization, as well as Intel's PC guidance no longer being revised downward and substantive progress with foundry customers; before this, any rebound is more likely short-covering rather than new buying.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 今天不是普通的 risk-on。原油单日暴跌 8%，道指暴涨 3%，VIX 暴跌 20%，恐慌指数回到 16.6。但诡异的是黄金没有跌，反而暴涨 3.68%，比特币涨 3.79%，以太坊涨 6.43%。股票、黄金、加密货币同涨，美元走弱，这是典型的“宽松交易”全面启动。本文拆解这股合力从何而来，以及加密能走多远。 本文大纲 - 🛢️ 油价暴跌 8%，通胀警报暂时解除 - 💰 美元走弱，黄金与比特币同涨 - 📊 资金在追什么：$ZEC、$XAU 放量 - 🎯 加密接下来看什么？ 今日快照 • $BTC 80,614，+3.79% • $ETH 2,429，+6.43% • $QQQ +0.97%，$SPY +1.65% • $DXY -0.39%，$GLD +3.68% • $IBIT +2.91% • VIX 16.6，-20.27% • 美国原油(USO) 145.41，-8.07% • 道指 53,356.12，+3.03% 一、油价暴跌 8%，通胀警报暂时解除 🛢️ 原油一夜崩了 8%，这不是小波动，是地缘风险溢价被瞬间抽干。特朗普明确表示没有立即进一步打击伊朗的计划，$SOXL -14.5%, $GLD +3.68%, on one side semiconductors are bleeding, on the other side safe-haven funds are still rushing into gold. Do you dare to take this rebound directly as a reversal?
Here are the numbers:
$BTC 80,464 +3.35% $ETH 2,424 +5.92%
$QQQ +0.97% $SPY +1.65% $IBIT +2.91%
$DXY -0.39% $GLD +3.68%
Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz are still stirring inflation expectations, US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations. AI/semiconductors are the sentiment switch for US stocks, $SOXL -14.5%, $SNDK -9.4%, $SKHYNIX -8.4%, just picking any one can move the market.
$ETH is more resilient than $BTC, risk appetite is rising;
$QQQ is up, but the confidence isn’t that strong, money is still shrinking into defense;
$IBIT is weaker than $BTC, a soft ETF means the spot market isn’t as strong as imagined;
$DXY is breathing a sigh of relief, risk assets get a breather;
$GLD is still rising, safe-haven funds haven’t fully withdrawn.
A fierce analysis like a tiger, the rise and fall still depends on Trump. Don’t rush to chase yet, wait to see which one between $DXY and $GLD shows weakness first. A $20 billion move, half in stocks and half in bonds—this is not financing, this is a grandmaster in the middle game at the tensest moment, exchanging both the rook and knight on the back wing just to leave an unstoppable passed pawn in the center. What the capital market fears most is never losing money, but losing a piece without compensation for position; Oracle’s move here bets on that truly promotable open line on the AI computing power chessboard.
Look at the data. Cloud infrastructure revenue is up 121% year-over-year, reaching about $7.4 billion—this is an offensive move, forcing the opponent to respond first. But capital expenditures have swallowed operating cash flow, with free cash flow at -$5.4 billion for the quarter. Folks, what is this? It’s a pawn pushed too far ahead: it has killing power but also a fatal vulnerability to encirclement. A true chess player doesn’t avoid a move because it’s risky but first calculates—are there enough pieces to support it, and can the endgame be defended after the exchange?
Issuing more stock dilutes shareholders; bonds increase debt costs. Moving two types of pieces simultaneously means you judge time more important than money. If the 121% growth can be converted into profits in the next rounds, this sacrifice is worth it; if growth falls to 50% or 40%, this pawn becomes a burden that must be abandoned, and debt interest will carve away at the endgame piece by piece.
Now look at XNVDA. It’s not a bystander. The upstream demand for computing power is validated by Oracle’s funding, meaning the opponent has voluntarily opened a semi-open line—you can stack forces there or wait until their cash flow tightens and they must reduce positions before closing the net. The smart move is not to chase the peak during the sacrifice frenzy but to set up crossfire on its secondary derivatives, waiting for a price imbalance to land.
Endgame awareness must be established early. With negative cash flow, rising debt, and diluted equity all overlapping, the market will sooner or later punish the "trading future for present" move with a period of consolidation. At that time, whoever holds cash, has light positions, and can catch the falling pawn at the limit down in panic will hold the winning advantage in the endgame.
There is only one real watershed judgment: is the AI computing power line a long-term promotable passed pawn, or an overhyped false offensive? The pieces are already placed and cannot be taken back; every next move must face the opponent’s counterattack. #oracle20bfinancingTrump Media transferred 4,259 BTC to CEX, valued at approximately $344 million$BTC
Citibank Wealth introduces spot crypto ETFs to suitable clients, adding another channel for institutional allocation.
In its October report, Citibank Wealth introduced spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to suitable clients, while Citibank's Bitcoin custody service has yet to announce a launch date.
I consider the news somewhat positive and consistent with the short-term strength, but the 4-hour moving average remains weak; I will watch whether the resistance at 80,849.9 can be broken and whether the support at 80,514.5 holds steady.
OKX data: BTC 80,549.90 USDT, 24h +5.96%, volume 802.2M USDT.
Do you think institutional exposure to spot ETFs will change Bitcoin's mid-term logic?
Not investment advice. DYOR. #JPMBTCLongTermForecast