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"Resubmitting and renegotiating a new agreement" is the part of this message that made me stop and think. I don't engage in high leverage, so I'm not in a hurry to guess which direction the news will take after it comes out. According to the report, if the current version of the Clarity Act fails to pass, it will have to go through the process again after the new session; the report also mentions that with the Democrats controlling both chambers, regulatory tendencies may become stricter.
What concerns me more is not the resubmission itself, but the cost of the rules being delayed indefinitely. For long-term value, this is a signal—not because it can determine the coin price, but because businesses and users need to know the boundaries when conducting operations or choosing services. If repeated negotiations prolong the period of unclear rules, then compliance investments may become harder to plan, which is my speculation.
However, I do not equate "stricter regulation" directly with long-term negative impact. Whether consumer protection can be effectively implemented, or whether DeFi requirements will make normal use difficult, depends on the specific provisions. Raising the threshold and improving the industry are not the same thing; you can't just equate them by looking at the headlines. I am holding without moving, but that doesn't mean these changes can be ignored.
Spot trading can wait patiently for the rules to be finalized, but high leverage may not have that luxury; the repeated back-and-forth in the news is enough to cause turmoil. For friends holding long-term, if the new version strengthens consumer protection but also raises the barriers to using DeFi, would you consider that trade-off worthwhile?📈 BTC stands above 80,500, leaning bullish but capped at 81,200.
First, admit the wrong position: if it falls back below 79,000, the rebound structure breaks, target returns to 77,000, then I admit I was wrong.
Yesterday's lower shadow was at 76,386, I wrote 76,600 won't be lost, retest 78,800, close above 80,500 to look higher. Now at 80,703, 80,500 holds, 81,200 (24h high) not yet surpassed.
Numbers: BTC 24h +4.78%, range 75,734–81,200; ETH +7.11%, range 2,226–2,450. Fee just settled at 0.00767%, down from the full 0.01% of the past two days—bulls haven't overextended. OI 2.67 billion, unchanged from 2.57 billion, shorts covering plus spot buying, not new money adding leverage.
79,500 is a leg, 80,000 a psychological level. Only if it closes above 81,200 and holds for 1 hour, then look to 82,000. Those who caught the knife at 75k on-chain need not panic, but don't get overconfident before 81,200.
If 81,200 passes, is it real or another fake breakout?
$BTC $ETH #BTCRebound
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The $SNDK storage sector experienced a significant sell-off today, with SanDisk dropping more than 10% in 24 hours, AXTI also plummeting, and the US semiconductor hardware sector collectively weakening.
The recent storage price hike rally had already been fully hyped earlier, with the price increase narrative fully priced in by investors. Now expectations are starting to loosen, with Kioxia signaling a weakening momentum in flash memory price increases. The end consumer market's acceptance of high-priced storage is declining, institutional profit-taking is concentrated, and selling pressure has directly emerged.
Additionally, with the midterm election results finalized and the Democrats taking control of both chambers, the market is beginning to price in expectations of tighter tech regulation, causing the high-valuation semiconductor hardware sector to bear the brunt first.
This sector panic sentiment is also worth noting for the crypto community. Risk asset preferences are interconnected; weakness in US tech stocks will indirectly suppress the bullish sentiment for $BTC and $ETH. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 @八佰哥爱理财 Seeing that 八佰哥 took a heavy loss bottom-fishing SOXL, many people ask when to bottom-fish SOXL triple semiconductor. Remember one core point: it is not a tool for long-term bottom-fishing to wait for a reversal; it is a tool for rebound trading.
Don't just rush in because it has dropped a lot. The truly suitable time to test positions requires multiple signals resonating together: interest rates, chip fundamentals, panic selling pressure, and technical stabilization.
Bottom-fishing on the left side has very low error tolerance; in a slow downtrend, the compounding loss of triple leverage will quietly eat away your principal. Wait for stabilization confirmation on the right side before participating with small positions, set stop losses, take profits when appropriate—this is the trading mindset suitable for SOXL.$176 million, resulting in nothing.
The U.S. midterm elections have concluded, with the crypto industry's super PAC spending over $176 million to support candidates. However, the Democrats swept Congress, and the industry now faces the prospect of stricter regulatory scrutiny. The crypto PAC has already set its sights on 2028, preparing to redraw the electoral map.
Assessment leans bearish: This is a clear cooling signal for the U.S. crypto regulatory environment. Democratic control of Congress likely means tighter overall regulations on stablecoins, exchange compliance, taxation, and SEC enforcement. In the short to medium term, this will suppress industry risk appetite and increase compliance cost expectations. For traders, the practical significance lies in the direction rather than timing; policy implementation still involves legislative and enforcement cycles, and what truly moves prices are specific bills and enforcement actions.
Scenario one: In the short term, watch the emotional reaction of $BTC, $ETH, and compliance-related assets. If regulatory bearishness is repeatedly digested, capital will tend to stay on the sidelines. Scenario two: The industry continues to increase political investment for 2028, indicating the game is far from over. Policy risk is a slow-moving variable, not a one-time clearance.
Which side do you focus on more: short-term sentiment digestion or the next round of bets for 2028?
Source: Cointelegraph💻 Seeing this message, I habitually ran a "code review": the input is the attitude of the senators, can the output be directly written as regulatory benefits? According to Bitwise analyst Camran Khosravi on X, as the results of the US midterm elections are gradually confirmed, there are currently 51 senators supporting cryptocurrency. He believes a bipartisan support trend is emerging.
My judgment is: this looks more like an improvement in the basis for policy discussion, not yet the delivery of legislative results. Among the 7 seats originally held by Republicans that the Democrats won, 4 winners received an A rating from Stand With Crypto. This indicates that the political space supporting crypto is not confined to one party, and the industry does not need to tie all expectations to party wins or losses.
The potential bug is that the variable "supporting crypto" is too broad. Recognizing the industry's existence does not mean agreeing with the same regulatory scheme; organizational ratings cannot be directly treated as votes in favor of specific bills. For ordinary users, there is still a need to refine demands between senators' attitudes and actual rules; you cannot skip testing and declare it live.
If it were me, I would change the observation indicator from "who supports" to "what is supported and how it is implemented." My speculation is that if bipartisan support can reach consensus on specific clauses, then it will better help companies assess compliance boundaries. I'll first add this to my observation list and not prematurely treat attitude changes as rule implementation. #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Sony will release its earnings report tonight, showing a divergence between the gaming and music sectors. The music business is a clear highlight, with sales up 21% last quarter, driven by continued growth in streaming and live performances. The gaming business faces short-term pressure, with sales roughly flat last quarter and memory costs squeezing hardware profit margins, but PS monthly active users still reached a record high of 125 million for the period. Upcoming major titles like GTA VI are expected to boost software revenue. Overall, music provides a floor while gaming awaits catalysts; attention will focus on whether the full-year profit guidance remains on an upward trend. #Circle's financial report is about to be released, will the growth of stablecoins translate into profits?
Circle exceeded Q3 expectations for USDC volume, quietly included an ARC token presale in the report, and still cut about 5% of its workforce. Revenue up. Seats down. The frog has seen both slides in one presentation.Tokenized stocks are splitting into two markets: those supported by issuers and those opposed by issuers.
Canton has just completed the first batch of tokenized Nasdaq stock trades under the SEC's innovation exemption framework.
On the other hand, 59 issuers have opposed their stocks being tokenized through OKX/ICE Markets.
This shows that RWA requires not only technology to put assets on the blockchain.
Who has the right to tokenize a stock – the issuer themselves or the trading platform?On November 5th, $BTC rose from $76,961 to a high of $81,196, up 4.86%, with a volatility of 7.21%. This bullish candle is very strong.
Looking at the spot whales: in 24 hours, large buy orders actively purchased 18,546 BTC, while large sell orders actively sold 15,361 BTC, resulting in a net inflow of 3,185 BTC, equivalent to $255 million. The buy-to-sell amount ratio is 1.21; large orders accounted for 76.75% of total transactions, with large buy orders making up 78.4%, and active buys across the entire market at 53.55%. In other words, this rally is mainly driven by large capital actively buying, not retail investors.
The futures market is even more interesting. Smart money's active buy ratio is 61.31%, but long positions only account for 21.33%—they are buying aggressively but holding positions for a short time, typical of quick in-and-out trades. The top traders' long-to-short ratio is 1.92 (longs at 65.7%), top accounts at 1.48, and all accounts at 1.39, confirming longs are dominant. Open interest is $7.74 billion, down slightly by 2.84% in 24 hours, with liquidations of $32.42 million in 24 hours. The funding rate is 0.0044%, indicating a bullish sentiment but not overheated.
Finally, ETFs: on October 29th, IBIT had a net inflow of $12.866 million, while FBTC and ARKB both had zero, totaling about $12.87 million, equivalent to 159 BTC—only a mild replenishment with limited strength.
In summary: the rise is backed by real money, but smart money holds positions briefly, and ETFs have not made large-scale purchases.
Short selling is recommended around 81,600, with a liquidation intensity of $600 million. A short-term pullback is highly likely after hitting this level. After living through it for a while, I understand one truth: a store's good business and whether shareholders can benefit are two separate accounts.
According to Odaily's summary, Hyperliquid's revenue in the past 30 days reached $66.87 million. I think this carries more weight than the rebound hype, but it's still not the answer to choosing coins: having protocol revenue doesn't mean the value will be passed on to token holders; it depends on how the buyback and burn mechanisms are connected.
Young friends, don't rush to treat a profitable protocol as a guaranteed way to make money. When you evaluate these kinds of tokens, do you first verify the source of income or the buyback realization?$AKE This market maker's dump bot places the second and third orders in sequence, with a total volume consistently around 120 to 130 each time. The support orders are the third buy orders, continuously clearing the market to sell... This strategy is written too obviously... Really a small market maker, no real strength...#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
Sony will announce its FY2026 Q2 results before the US market opens on November 5. In the previous fiscal quarter, revenue reached ¥2.84 trillion, with operating profit soaring 40% year-over-year, and the full-year guidance was raised to ¥1.72 trillion, setting a high benchmark for this report.
In the gaming segment, with the PS5 entering the late stage of its lifecycle, shipments have declined year-over-year, and hardware is no longer the growth driver; the focus shifts to the sustainability of software, digital content, and subscription services, as well as market sentiment ahead of the GTA VI launch. The music business continues its strong performance, driven by streaming, recorded music and copyright income, and live performances, with Q1 operating profit already up 14%.
Additionally, image sensors remain an invisible profit pillar, while the Kumamoto earthquake impact and storage chip costs are potential variables. The market bets on a 76% probability of "exceeding expectations," but high expectations themselves pose a risk—the real determinant of the stock price will be whether the full-year guidance is raised again.$xMU Negative news: Democrats win governorships in Texas and Ohio, Micron drops 7.9% in one day
XMU currently at $800.36, down 7.92% in 24 hours, falling from 874.33 to a low of 792.79, with a trading volume of about $10.08 million
The reason for the drop is straightforward: Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress and also won the governor elections in Texas and Ohio, two major data center states. The market fears that land use, power supply, and approvals for new data centers BTC has returned to the $80,000 mark, with Binance quickly responding, promising full coverage, and freezing stablecoins, which indeed stabilized short-term panic and avoided an FTX-style chain reaction; however, this should not be simply equated with a complete restoration of market confidence. This rebound is the result of multiple forces combined and does not mean that the deep-rooted conflicts caused by the state-level hacker attack have disappeared.
1. Binance's proper handling and its positive role
1. Immediate commitment to SAFU + own funds coverage, ensuring users' on-paper assets are not lost
Unlike FTX's bankruptcy and inability to cover the funding gap, the market immediately judged that there would be no user run or platform collapse chain reaction, thus preventing the most extreme black swan event. The stablecoin portion was frozen by the issuer, intercepting about $3 billion in assets, reducing the chips for immediate dumping, and quickly calming panic.
2. Clear distinction: what was breached was the exchange custody, not the Bitcoin mainnet itself
Many funds are clearly separated: the vulnerability was in the CEX hot wallet and social engineering permission hijacking, not a collapse of BTC network cryptography. Therefore, Bitcoin itself was not directly abandoned; rather, a large amount of funds began withdrawing to cold wallets instead of indiscriminately selling BTC itself.
3. Orderly withdrawal opening and phased business resumption to prevent run-induced stampedes
If withdrawals were stopped or restricted, it would easily trigger a trust crisis; a smooth withdrawal process reduced run-style panic.
👉 This part is the source of the "some confidence restoration" that everyone sees.
2. But the main drivers of the rebound are not all "confidence returning," there are several key pushers
1. Concentrated short covering (very critical)
After the event, a large amount of short-term funds shorted; after the price dropped to a low, shorts concentrated on stop-loss covering, quickly pushing up the price. This is a derivatives fund game, not new long-term funds aggressively entering bullish.
2. Macro external sentiment resonance
This round's rise above $80,000, combined with the U.S. election, risk asset sentiment warming, and U.S. tech stocks driving risk appetite, is aided by the external environment, not solely because the Binance incident is over.
3. Existing funds bottom-fishing and rebounding
Some traders treat this hacker event as a one-time shock, playing the short-term rebound after the bearish news settles, which is short-term trading behavior, not long-term fund endorsement of exchange custody.
3. Most importantly: the deep trust cracks have not been repaired (this is easily masked by the $80,000 mark)
1. Hackers still hold a large amount of BTC, ETH, and STRK native coins, which after mixing can be sold off in batches at any time; selling pressure is a long-term latent risk
Stablecoins are frozen, but native crypto assets are hard to track and freeze. This portion of chips is timed selling pressure, just not concentrated dumping.
2. Market consensus has quietly diverged: trust in centralized custody is permanently discounted
Many whales and institutions conclude not that "Binance is very safe," but that large assets cannot be kept long-term on CEX. The ongoing withdrawal wave, self-custody, and rising cold wallet demand signal this. People are just temporarily not panicking into a stampede but no longer unconditionally trust exchanges.
3. Regulatory follow-up pressure is still on the way
The U.S. will use this state-level APT attack event to continue tightening crypto custody, anti-money laundering, and mixing tracking regulations. Subsequent regulatory policy bearishness has not been fully priced in.
4. The underlying security narrative you have long followed is actually being reinforced
This rebound has not erased the quantum risk expectations of BTC and ETH elliptic curves; instead, it clarifies the market's distinction between two layers of security: custody security and underlying cryptographic security. The long-term logic of post-quantum routes like STRK has not disappeared because of this rebound.
4. A dialectical summary in one sentence
✅ Binance's handling successfully avoided a crash-style stampede, repaired short-term liquidity panic, and supported BTC to hold above $80,000;
❌ This does not equal a complete restoration of market trust in centralized exchanges. Long-term issues such as the cryptocurrency war, state-level hacker attacks, and underlying cryptographic risks still exist.
The rise above $80,000 is the result of short-term sentiment and fund games, not the complete end of the impact of this hacker event.$SOL is clearly revealed, the big short position of 250,000 SOL on-chain has a liquidation line at 123.
Below, all the spot funds are holding on to support the bottom, and the long leverage has been completely washed out.
The main force is now just waiting for an opportunity to push it up.
As long as the price touches 123, the forced liquidation buy order of 250,000 SOL will be instantly triggered.
This kind of liquidity served on a silver platter, the manipulator can't possibly ignore it.
This position is just waiting for a blatant short squeeze.
#SOL
$SOL
👇Sun Ge wrote a long article attacking U.S. President Trump. The timing was extremely cunning—not too early, not too late, but precisely on the day of the U.S. midterm election voting.
Previously, he invested $45 million to support the Trump family's WLFI project, but the coins were hacked and frozen. The matter escalated to a lawsuit in the California federal court. To avoid jurisdiction, the Trump side of the project even overnight claimed to be an "Emirati entity."
Sun Ge's boomerang move effectively tore apart the Trump family's "patriotic" cover on the very day of the election vote. The political pay-to-play deal fell through, and he handed the knife over to the Democratic Party. $ZEC $BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The results of the U.S. midterm elections are out, with the Democratic Party sweeping both chambers. This outcome has brought considerable political pressure on Trump and has once again introduced new uncertainties for cryptocurrencies that previously benefited from Republican policy support. Over the past two years, Trump has actively promoted the development of the U.S. crypto industry. From the implementation of the GENIUS Act to the CLARITY Act's attempt to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, the industry originally hoped to leverage this round of policy dividends to further open the U.S. market. However, with the Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress, this path is unlikely to be as smooth as previously anticipated. The most directly affected is the CLARITY Act, which had already encountered resistance in the Senate. In September, a procedural motion to advance the bill to the next stage failed with 49 votes in favor and 50 against. It should also be noted that the Democratic Party is not entirely opposed to the crypto industry, nor does it mean they are unwilling to establish unified regulatory rules; the real disagreement lies in how the rules should be formulated. For example, the Democrats pay more attention to investor protection, market transparency, and conflicts of interest among government officials. Now that the Democrats control both chambers, the leadership of congressional committees and legislative agendas may be adjusted accordingly. Even if the CLARITY Act re-enters negotiations, it will likely need to include more restrictive provisions. Another change worth noting is that crypto businesses associated with Trump may face increased congressional scrutiny. Previously, the Democrats had already expressed concerns about conflicts of interest between government officials and crypto companies. With control of both chambers, relevant committees in the future can conduct more thorough investigations.Seeing the four characters "2029," the first thing I calculated was whether I could still hold on until then.
This Strawmap basically breaks life into four stages: H* is the last fork without Lean, which is the current setup; I* is when leanVM and Lean transactions start; J* adds Lean proofs, data availability sampling, and PCS; all the way to the L phase, where Lean Ethereum is truly completed.
None of these intermediate forks can be skipped. Holding $ETH means you have to get used to this pace.Old Trump loses both chambers｜Is it bearish or bullish? The debate is endless, let me interpret it
1. Overall characterization
BTC and ETH are short-term bearish, mid-to-long-term neutral with fluctuations, no one-sided big market moves
This result is a "bullish expectation disappointment," not a sudden bearish event; the market is mainly correcting sentiment.
2. Impact on the crypto market
1. Bearish logic: The Republican crypto-friendly bill and regulatory clarity expectations are completely disproved; the Democrat-led Congress favors stricter regulation, suppressing crypto sentiment in the short term.
2. Hedge support: Trump retains presidential veto power, extreme strict regulations cannot pass, policy enters a stalemate period, no systemic crash will occur.
3. Final pattern: Regulation remains status quo, market trends return to being driven by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury bonds, and capital flows.
3. Impact on the U.S. stock market
1. Bearish: Difficulty in implementing tax cuts, loose fiscal policies, and business-friendly policies increases; tech growth faces short-term pressure.
2. Bullish/stabilizing: Divided government means no extreme policies, market stability improves, and the probability of a major crash decreases.
4. Summary
Short-term sentiment mainly corrects, mid-term digests with fluctuations. The election is just a disturbance and will not change the original trend; trading should not chase one-sided moves based on news.
For review reference only, not trading advice #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC A roadmap called Strawmap has been laid out, and the most eye-catching thing is not the technical terms, but the year: 2029. This time, nothing immediate was announced; instead, the activities for the next three years are spread out in advance.
Breaking it down, it is a corridor connected by forks. H* is the last fork without Lean features, marking the end of the current setup; I* is when leanVM and Lean transactions start to be introduced; J* continues to stack Lean proofs, data availability sampling, and PCS; by the time it reaches stage L, Lean Ethereum is considered complete.
This sequence reveals the approach. Lean is not a hard switch but is broken into several parts inserted into the existing chain in multiple steps, each time only taking a small portion, giving validators, clients, and ecosystem tools time to catch up. The cost is slowness, but the benefit is avoiding putting the entire chain at risk in a single upgrade.
The reasons are clear: streamline the protocol, eliminate redundancy, improve performance, and also take into account the threat of quantum computing. The first two are old issues; the third is a new variable—not a risk arriving tomorrow, but precisely why acting many years in advance makes sense.
For those holding $ETH, there is a point easy to misunderstand. The longer the roadmap, the greater the chance a single fork could be disproven, making it harder for the market to price in three years at once. What’s worth watching is not the end point, but the step from H* to I*: when Lean truly starts running, whether developers keep up or not.Calculating, the actual cash rent received by Ionic Digital in the third quarter is only about 16% of the lease income for the period. Compared to a 32% year-over-year increase in revenue, I am more concerned about this ratio. As mining companies shift to data centers, the business story has changed, and whether the revenue has turned into cash still needs to be accounted for separately.
① Lease income is about $43.9 million, while the actual cash rent received is about $7 million, a difference of about $36.9 million. This is the gap between revenue recognition and cash receipt, but since the materials do not explain the settlement arrangements, I will not directly consider it as accounts receivable or bad debt.
② Lease income already accounts for nearly 90% of the total revenue of $48.9 million. This means that when evaluating this company, the focus should shift from mining performance to the quality of lease business collections; the source of income has changed, so the criteria for reading the financial statements must also change.
③ Adjusted EBITDA is about $35 million, compared to only $154,000 in the same period last year. The improvement is indeed significant, but this metric cannot replace cash receipts, nor can it be used to prove smooth rent collection.
My judgment is that the transformation has already manifested in the revenue structure, but cash realization still needs to be verified. If subsequent rents are received as agreed, then this growth will be more convincing; this is my speculation, not an existing development. I will continue to monitor collections and settlement explanations and will not equate improvements on the books with sound operational quality for now.Bitcoin and Ethereum Key Level Breakthrough: Has Wave 3 Started?
On November 4, 2026, $BTC rebounded about $3,000 to climb back above $80,000, while Ethereum simultaneously broke through $2,400. With uncertainty from the US midterm elections fading, risk appetite has risen, and capital is flowing back into the crypto market, serving as a short-term catalyst.
From a technical structure perspective, $ETH's "Wave 1-2 setup followed by a third wave rise" pattern is attracting attention. The channel breakout is seen as a signal that the low point may have formed near the 38.2% retracement. The $80,000 level is regarded by Galaxy Digital as strong support; Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-week moving average, releasing an initial signal that the phase low may be behind. The $2,400 level coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a critical threshold contested by bulls and bears.
However, the start of Wave 3 cannot yet be confirmed. The bullish structure for Ethereum clearly requires a complete five-wave rise to follow; so far, only the channel breakout has occurred, and confirmation conditions are unmet. More importantly, the driving force behind this rebound mainly comes from short covering—nearly $930 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, while spot buying did not follow suit. The price has returned, but leverage and structural buying have not.
Holding $80,000 and $2,400 is a prerequisite for the Wave 3 narrative to hold; but if driven only by short covering, the breakout is more likely to remain a corrective rebound rather than the start of a trend-level rally.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Nasdaq closed up 1.44%, but the three major storage giants collectively fell 5%-8%.
This is not market schizophrenia; they simply do not operate under the same trading logic.
The Nasdaq's heavyweights are software and cloud giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. As long as they perform well, the index holds up; storage has a smaller weight in the Nasdaq, so even if it collectively drags down, it’s hard to pull the index down.
To explain clearly why cloud giants surged while storage was hammered:
1️⃣｜Differentiated pricing on election expectations, the most direct trigger
With the Democrats taking both houses, the market started pricing in: subsequent approvals for data centers, power, AI new projects, and regulations are likely to tighten.
✅ Microsoft / Amazon / Apple: profits come from existing cloud business, not relying on continuously building new data centers, capital clusters around this certainty of cash flow.
❌ Micron, SanDisk, Hynix: orders are highly tied to new computing power construction. Once new data center expansion slows, storage demand expectations are revised down, and capital immediately cashes out and runs.
2️⃣｜Storage is essentially a cyclical stock
The cyclical script always repeats: supply shortage → order explosion → capacity expansion and factory building → supply rises, demand lags → valuation cuts. Storage has followed this script for years.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq’s basket of cloud and consumer platforms has stronger demand sustainability. Even if semiconductor hardware collectively plunges, the index can still hold up.
Do you think this round of storage is a correction or the peak of the cycle?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ $SONY
Sony is about to release its earnings report, and I believe this quarter will still exceed expectations. The music media and gaming sectors are the two fundamentals of Sony's profits.
In gaming, the PS5 has entered the latter half of its lifecycle, with hardware sales clearly slowing down. Sony's strategy is shifting from pursuing hardware sales to extracting value from the existing user base. By focusing on digital games, PS Plus subscriptions, and DLC and other post-sale services, the gaming business has achieved significant profit growth despite the hardware cooling off. Additionally, the upcoming exclusive one-year release of "GTA6" could greatly increase gaming business profits.
The music business is the foundation of Sony's profits. After years of accumulation, Sony holds the copyrights to a large number of classic music tracks, creating a very deep moat. Although profit growth is affected by copyright issues brought on by the AI wave, this does not impact its long-term stable cash flow fundamentals.$BTC is reported at 80,540 USD, up 0.09% in 6 hours.
$ETH is reported at 2,422.84 USD, down 0.02% in 6 hours, up 7.08% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC intraday. The 6-hour high is 2,431.74, and the low is 2,406.3.
BTC resistance is seen around 80,800, with support at 80,200; ETH resistance at 2,432, support at 2,406.
This round of rebound is driven by a weaker dollar and progress in US-Iran negotiations boosting risk appetite, combined with short covering dominance: BTC single short positions closed about 370 million USD, while open interest contracts decreased by 4.36%, indicating the rally relies more on short stop-losses rather than new buying. Spot buying and ETF net inflows have weakened, so caution is needed for a pullback after the short covering momentum fades.
In terms of operations, the cost-effectiveness of chasing BTC/ETH short-term highs has declined; after the short covering momentum weakens, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to support before reassessing, paying attention to whether spot buying can continue;
The rebound depends on short covering rather than new money entering; the faster the rise, the more one should ask: who will take the next baton?
This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; operate with caution.
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 "51 people support crypto," the number I’m focusing on first. In the futures market, when rules change, everyone likes to count the support votes first, but having a supportive attitude and reaching an agreement on specific terms are never the same thing. According to this analyst, the number of supporters has slightly decreased compared to before the election, but a trend of bipartisan support is emerging.
I see it more as a broadening of the policy discussion base rather than a guarantee of accelerated legislation. Crypto is different from traditional commodity futures; the regulatory boundaries themselves are still being debated. Supporting the industry doesn’t mean there’s consensus on how to divide regulatory responsibilities. Here’s my judgment: if bipartisan support can be translated into specific terms, then for companies that need to invest in long-term compliance, that will be more meaningful than just a number label.
As an old futures market person, my habit is still to watch how the rules are implemented, not to rush to treat political attitudes as market signals. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? In this news, do you value the number of supporters more, or whether bipartisan agreement on specific rules can be reached?The latest liquidation data is out. Don't just focus on the total amount; breaking it down is more interesting.
4-hour liquidations total 12.29 million: shorts 9.18 million, longs 3.10 million; 12-hour liquidations total 93.65 million: shorts 64.24 million, longs 29.41 million. The answer is straightforward — this move from 76665 up to 78000 mainly liquidated shorts. Positions chasing shorts and topping out were continuously taken out during the rebound, releasing concentrated short pressure within half a day.
But if you extend the timeframe to 24 hours, the picture changes: total liquidations reach 175 million, longs 96.01 million, shorts 78.90 million, with longs slightly higher. The reason is simple: during the earlier drop from 78800 to 76665, bottom-fishing longs were cleared first.
Looking at it together, it's a combination punch: first smashing down to liquidate longs, then pulling up to liquidate shorts, sweeping both sides back and forth. The largest single liquidation was on Binance BTCUSDT, a single 8.78 million USD position, indicating that heavy holders were also taken out.
My view: this is not a simple one-sided market but a typical two-way harvest. Short-term traders shouldn't be led by rebound sentiment to chase; shorts have just been taught a lesson, and longs' wounds haven't healed yet. BTC, ETH, and ZEC are all the same; position management is more important than calling direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $ADA
There was an analysis this morning saying ADA broke all key moving averages and faced pressure after being rejected at 0.28. I checked the chart and was stunned — today it rose by 5.4%.
It opened at 0.1867 in 24 hours, the lowest was 0.1829, the highest 0.2018, and now it's 0.1967. The moving averages were broken, but that has nothing to do with today's candle.
What caught my attention was another number: 71% of contract accounts are holding long positions. The price is below the moving averages, but the positions are all on the long side. This combination is rare.
But on OKX, the open interest is only $26.04 million, and the fee rate is exactly 0.01%, with no premium at all. Many people, but no one is bidding up. They are not bullish; they just haven't left.
At 10 PM, there were 385,000 contracts in one hour, the previous hour had 46,000, eight times more. At 11 PM, 620,000 contracts touched 0.2016, then gradually shrank to 50,000 contracts this morning, with the price ranging between 0.1943 and 0.2005, moving sideways all night.
The story is told, and so is the volume. How long can 71% longs hold on? The answer will probably come when the US stock market opens tonight.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SOL
Down 19.7% in a month, quick news characterizes SOL as the one that fell the hardest among the mainstream after the Binance hack.
Today it rose 4.2%. Opened at 91.97, lowest at 89.88, touched 98.16, now at 95.8.
I didn’t chase it. At 23:00, there was a 1-hour volume of 2.51 million contracts, the previous one was 1.37 million, and before that 290,000. One candle went from 92.9 to 98.13, closing at 96.65.
Then the next ten candles combined had 2.8 million contracts, price hovered between 94.3 and 96.2 all night. Volume shrank to one-ninth, price didn’t go back. The ones supporting the rally left.
Fee rate is 0.0057%, not even half of the benchmark 0.01%. Perpetual can’t even hold the benchmark, bulls are unwilling to pay for this position. Open interest is $333 million, no new positions seen today.
So this 4% rebound, I see it as short covering. The first rebound after a 20% drop usually looks like this: fast, low volume, and no one adding positions.
I used to try to catch this kind of rebound, but it basically always hits halfway up the mountain. Wait for volume to come back before making a move.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations At 9:30 PM Beijing time on November 6, the US October nonfarm employment data will be released, which is definitely a critical moment determining the market's fate in the coming weeks. Let's first look at how solid the current macro fundamentals are. Surprisingly, US manufacturing data for October exceeded expectations, but the price index inside remains stubbornly high. Coupled with the previously risen 3.1% core inflation, what does this indicate? It means the US economy is not only not in recession but quite hot, yet inflation just won't come down. The market's expectation for the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December has already surged to 70%. This time for nonfarm, the general expectation is an increase of 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate still at 4.2%. My personal view is straightforward: the current market logic has completely reversed, so don't look at the data with old perspectives. Previously, people thought "good employment data equals good economy, which is positive for crypto," but now it's totally different! If tonight's nonfarm data is particularly strong, it will be the perfect excuse for the Fed to continue raising rates in December, and big money will immediately flee from risk assets. Conversely, if the data disappoints, funds will panic about whether the US economy is heading for a hard landing. So, as some community members say, the nonfarm data itself is a big risk; you can't just focus on new jobs added—wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data, every detail can trigger major shocks. Currently, the market is slightly up, basically holding its breath waiting for the results. What impact will it have? In the short term, definitely 11月5日｜接下来市场需要紧盯哪些动向？ 眼下市场有几个信号值得重点关注。 第一，盯紧美国就业数据。 10月ADP新增就业8.6万人，高于市场预期。接下来要看11月6日公布的官方非农，重点关注新增就业、失业率和薪资增速。就业越强，市场对降息的预期就越容易受到压制。 第二，盯紧ETF资金流向。 BTC和ETH的短期走势，不能只看价格反弹，还要看现货ETF有没有持续净流入。价格上涨但资金没有跟上，行情的持续性就需要打个问号。 第三，关注矿企的BTC出售。 Riot等矿企正在出售部分BTC，为数据中心扩张和债务偿还提供资金。这不一定代表恐慌性抛售，但会增加市场供应，后续要看其他矿企是否跟进。 第四，关注美元、黄金和地缘局势。 黄金走强反映避险需求和宏观预期变化，但不等于BTC必然上涨。美元、美债收益率以及地缘局势，仍会影响市场风险偏好。 第五，留意香港加密资产税务申报框架落地。 这代表行业合规和信息申报要求进一步完善，长期影响值得关注，但不要简单理解成短期资金利好。 我的判断： 现在最重要的不是急着猜方向，而是观察宏观数据落地后，ETF资金能不能持续回流，以及市场能不能消化矿企带来的供应压力$BTC pulled back from 75,700 to above 80,000 overnight. Half the group is shouting "bottom confirmed," while the other half says "short covering, won't go far." I didn't rush to take sides; I first had AI do something: list the reasons from both sides in separate tables, and after each reason, it must state "which data appears, this reason doesn't hold."
The results were quite interesting. The bulls' strongest reason is the election landing and uncertainty disappearing; the bears' strongest is that this rally mainly relied on short liquidations. According to CoinGlass data, about $530 million in shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, and the total open interest actually dropped by more than 4%, indicating little new money came in.
I personally verified the "falsification conditions" in the tables one by one: the BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX is now about 0.0077%, not overheated; the bears' key level is around 75,800, and until the daily candle closes below that, this concern remains just a hypothesis.
The value of AI here is not to tell me whether it will rise or fall, but to force me to break down "what I think" into "which numbers I need to watch." My own judgment: this rebound is mediocre; in the next few days, watch if the open interest can rise along with the price. If it doesn't, don't rush to chase.
When you see a bull-bear divergence, which indicator do you watch first? As soon as I saw "Exchange outflow of 2,501 BTC," the group started shouting bull market.
I did the math: Binance wallet still holds 666,900 BTC, and this outflow accounts for 0.37%. Really, it's not even a fraction.
$250 million sounds scary, but in the BTC market, it's just someone moving house. Moving house doesn't mean selling the house.
So whether it's bullish or bearish, I can't say. I'm just a bit curious: those shouting the loudest, did they even calculate this proportion?$ETH
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Tonight's small nonfarm payrolls are interesting
New jobs added: 86,000
17,000 more than expected
But the same as the revised data from last month
Is the job market really that strong
Or were people just too pessimistic before?
September originally reported 90,000 new jobs
Now revised down to 86,000
So although October exceeded market expectations
Job growth hasn't actually accelerated
This is different from what many people think
On the surface, employment exceeded expectations
But in reality, it's just not as bad as the market feared
However, for Bitcoin bulls
This might not necessarily be good news
After all, everyone has been hoping for a rate cut in December
The more resilient the employment data
The less reason the Fed has to rush to ease policy
Previously, the market worried about economic weakness
Thinking a rate cut might be coming soon
Now with employment better than expected
The rate cut plan needs to be reconsidered
But adding 86,000 jobs
Is not exactly a sudden takeoff in the job market
It's obviously too early to conclude no rate cut in December
Based on just one small nonfarm report
Dropped from 79 to 1.48, not a 98% drop
$TRUMP is now at 1.48, just 8% away from the historical low of 1.3.
What do these numbers mean: 79 was the highest price at launch. 1.48 is today's price. There were no dividends or additional issuances in between, only buying and selling.
What does it actually do: This coin has no application, no incoming funds; the only support it has is from Trump himself. Losing the election loosened that support.
Common misunderstanding: The 98% drop did not happen in one day. It dropped a little every day over more than half a year. Today's 5.89% drop is just one day.
The 1.3 low point was hammered out in August. There is still an 8% margin before reaching it now.
If it really breaks below 1.3, there is no historical price reference below that.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $TRUMP 📊 $BTC current price $80,699, WAIT
I hold a long position in $BTC (average price $83,030), no adding to position, waiting for confirmation
The cap above is the downtrend line at $81,159, dropping daily below $82
The $80,816 level has surged 15 times, pulled back 10 times, broken through 4 times (3 of which fell back), and 1 time with no reaction. In the past 9.8 hours, shorts liquidated $38.49 million, with about $18.5 million around this area
A) 4H close stabilizes above $81,950 → target $82,892; if it falls back below $80,400, it’s invalid
B) 1H close breaks below $80,400 → first target $79,742; if it rises above $81,950, it’s invalid
24h +4.86%, open interest up 3.7%, new money is going long. November 4 US nonfarm payroll data just passed, historical performance at this level may be unreliable
If it rebounds to $81,950, I will reduce half my position first and move stop loss to breakeven
Do you think this wave is a short squeeze or a real breakout? #Вероятность повышения ставок в США в декабре снизилась до 73%, сообщество активно обсуждает дальнейший путь $BTC
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Tonight's small non-farm payrolls are quite interesting
New jobs added: 86,000
17,000 more than expected
But the same as the revised data from last month
Is the job market really that strong
Or was everyone too pessimistic before?
September originally reported 90,000 new jobs
Now revised down to 86,000
Meaning
Although October exceeded market expectations
Job growth did not continue to accelerate
This is different from what many people understand
On the surface, employment exceeded expectations
In reality, it’s just not as bad as the market feared
But for Bitcoin bulls
This may not necessarily be good news
After all, everyone has been hoping for a rate cut in December
The more resilient the employment data
The less reason the Fed has to rush to ease policy
Previously, the market worried about economic weakness
Thinking a rate cut might come soon
Now with better-than-expected employment performance
The rate cut plan needs to be reconsidered
However, 86,000 new jobs
Can’t be considered a sudden takeoff in the job market
Relying on just one small non-farm payroll report
To conclude no rate cut in December
Is obviously too early In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.004 billion, with 135,000 people wiped out. Shorts liquidated $571 million, longs $434 million, with shorts liquidating $137 million more, completely opposite to the previous "longs massacre."
BTC liquidated $408 million, with shorts accounting for 75.6%, about $300 million of shorts liquidated; ETH liquidated $248 million, also dominated by shorts. BTC and ETH have become the main battleground for short squeezes.
Within 12 hours, $621 million liquidated, shorts $425 million, corresponding to a short squeeze after the election results landed; in the last 4 hours, longs vs shorts are 17.17 million vs 14.83 million, turning into a tug of war. The largest single liquidation was ETH on HTX, $37.99 million, a large short forcibly liquidated.
This is a typical short squeeze: election results → bad news fully priced in → shorts panic close positions → price surges. But the $1 billion liquidation is mainly passive short liquidations, not new longs entering. Short squeeze rises fast and falls fast; if no buying follows after shorts clear, a pullback can happen anytime. 130,000 people liquidated indicates crowded leverage. Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow night, don’t chase highs.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The founder of a certain exchange admitted that the security team is severely understaffed, and suspicious transfers have appeared again, which is not a positive sentiment for $BTC.
But the market situation is more worth watching: in the last 8.5 hours, short positions liquidated $38.49 million, with $18.5 million near $80,816.
The $80,816 level has surged 15 times, pulled back 10 times, broken through 4 times (3 of which fell back), and once had no reaction. The current price is still below it, so I won't chase longs and will wait for a stable break.
The US non-farm payroll data was just released on November 4, and the market may not follow the old patterns. Do you think this is a real breakout after shorts were swept out, or a fake breakout? #Вероятность повышения ставок в США в декабре снизилась до 73%, сообщество активно обсуждает дальнейший путь $BTC surged to around 81,000 this morning but then slowed down. Looking at the 5-minute chart, there is a bearish order block above 80,000. This is the starting point of a 5-minute downward CHoCH. The price rebounded but repeatedly retested 3 candles without breaking through, which is a bit unexpected. Sellers' orders in this range are still suppressing the price.
Just now, the 15-minute candle pierced the previous low, sweeping liquidity below. Although that candle closed back up, the subsequent rebound was weak. The 1-hour trading volume shrank by more than half. Fewer active takers are following in the market, and the price has stalled.
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 maintain a bearish alignment. The price just hit a key daily resistance level. Several highs from 4 hours ago overlap here. The larger timeframe trend is bearish, and bulls are struggling to push higher.
I lean bearish. The daily heavy resistance lies above, and the short-term is blocked by the order block. There isn’t enough buying volume to absorb the selling pressure, so a pullback is highly likely next.
$ETH $SOL #CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 Last night, the short positions clustered above 78000 were swept away in one wave at dawn — $320 million worth of shorts liquidated in 30 minutes, BTC surged directly to 81000. This is the backlash of negative funding rates.
Thursday morning review. First, the judgment: this was a textbook short squeeze. Wait for a pullback: see if the 80000 round number and the old double bottom at 80774 can become support; consider long positions again after a volume-reduced stabilization on the pullback; if it directly surges to 81200 but fails to break the previous high, be cautious of a retracement after the squeeze.
Data snapshot: BTC at 80396, up 4.34% in 24 hours, high and low points at 81193 and 75700, funding rate back to 0.0001, open interest dropped from 661 million contracts to 573 million, down by 87 million contracts, volume at 10.59 billion; ETH at 2414, up 6.55%. Last night, funding rates turned negative and open interest surged, indicating shorts were crowded at the 78000 level; once 78700 broke, short stop-loss orders directly fueled the rally, forcing more shorts to cover as the price rose. But the large drop in open interest shows this rally was driven by liquidations, not new long entries; after the squeeze, consolidation is usually needed.
News: The midterm election results are settled, uncertainty fades, driving a broad rebound; ETH up 6%, SOL and XRP each up 4%. However, spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, so this rebound currently lacks confirmation from the capital side.
Tonight, watch the US stock market open and the outcome around the 81200 previous high.
The most profitable in a squeeze are those who positioned early; the most likely to lose are those who jump in after the rally.
$BTC $ETH BTC directly staged a violent V-shaped rebound! It surged from 75,700 all the way up to 81,199, a single-day rebound of over 7%. However, after hitting the high, it immediately dropped back down, shaking out both bulls and bears in this wave.
Here’s why it suddenly surged so sharply:
1. The election results were finalized, the lingering uncertainty was resolved, and the previous panic eased, allowing funds to return to bet on an oversold rebound.
2. Large option orders clustered together, with 660 million nominal value in options, 420 million of which were calls, indicating big money betting on a rebound.
3. A large number of short positions had accumulated earlier; when the price rose, shorts were forced to cover, and a chain of liquidations pushed the market up directly.
So why did it fail to hold at 81,199 and then fall back?
There was too much selling pressure above, with trapped positions and short-term profit takers rushing to exit, and the bulls lacked follow-through strength.
My view: This rebound is essentially driven by emotional repair and short squeeze, with no sustained inflow of new spot funds yet.
The approach is simple: don’t chase longs, and don’t rush to short either; wait for the rebound to meet resistance before looking for shorting opportunities.
The only signal to adjust this view: if volume increases and the price stabilizes above 81,200 later, then this bearish outlook needs to be reconsidered. To pour some cold water first, the disbanding of the anti-crime alliance does not mean that the money on the chain is "free." When I saw this news, I was more concerned about transparency: a cooperative mechanism that can produce enforcement results but did not explain the reason for its exit is not something to celebrate outright. My judgment is that the information gap leans negative but is not enough to infer a bearish outlook for the entire industry.
According to Bloomberg, the T3 Financial Crime Fighting Alliance, jointly established in September 2024 by the organization behind the Tron blockchain, Tether, and TRM Labs, has quietly disbanded, with specific reasons yet to be disclosed. The alliance had previously frozen $250 million in illicit assets. I do not agree with interpreting this as a "loosening of risk control" for two reasons: the alliance is a form of cooperation, and its disbandment itself does not prove that the members' individual tracking and freezing capabilities have disappeared; and the existing freezing results show that this collaboration was not a sham. If there is a gap in cooperation as a result, I speculate that the pressure is on the compliance trust of the related institutions, not that ordinary users have suddenly gained convenience.
Of course, it may also be correct to understand this as an organizational adjustment. If we later see that the original responsibilities are clearly taken over and cooperation continues to operate, I will retract my somewhat negative judgment. Don't rush to get excited, nor rush to imagine a regulatory shift. I will focus on one thing next: with the cooperative banner withdrawn, has the actual capability also withdrawn?"Frozen $250 million in illegal assets," this number caught my eye immediately: having achieved such results, how could it still disband? According to Bloomberg, the T3 Financial Crime Fighting Alliance, jointly initiated by the organization behind Tron, Tether, and TRM Labs, has quietly dissolved, with the specific reasons not yet disclosed. I've only been in the circle for a year, so seeing this part really left me a bit confused 🤔
But after thinking for a while, I feel that for ordinary users, the frozen amount alone is not enough to serve as a basis for a sense of security. This is not to deny the value of anti-crime work, but "money temporarily immobilized" and "victims being able to recover it" cannot be directly equated.
What I understand is that freezing can restrict the continued transfer of related assets, but how ownership is determined and how the assets are handled afterward are what really affect whether losses can be recovered. I’m not sure if this is correct. If you only look at the cumulative frozen amount, it’s easy to mistake interception results for recovery results. This is my concern and does not mean there are already issues with handling these assets.
What I haven’t figured out yet is whether the subsequent handling of previously frozen assets will be affected after the alliance disbands; the material doesn’t provide an answer. I will keep this information gap in mind and, in the future, when I see anti-crime reports, I’ll take a closer look at where the assets behind the numbers are going.Being able to trade vs. being able to predict, I think these two should be considered separately. Bitquery's weekend tests found that stock token predictions for Monday's opening direction did not show a clear advantage; simply guessing an increase had an accuracy rate of 55%. Nasdaq's proposed plan to extend trading on weekdays also comes with conditions.
I value the convenience of trading more and am not in a hurry to label it as an "opening oracle": even the baseline of guessing an increase hasn't shown a clear advantage, so weekend prices alone are not a reliable basis for judging direction; extending trading hours does not equal improved predictive ability, especially since the plan has conditions. For ordinary users, I think the biggest reminder is: having more trading windows does not mean having more informational advantage.
If weekend price fluctuations are lively, I would first see if it can consistently outperform the guess-increase baseline. Which side of stock tokens do you value more: the convenience of weekend trading or the ability to predict Monday's opening?What the crypto community most wants to "get listed" might not be tokens on exchanges, but rather to have their demands included on the national legislative agenda. Previously, we focused on K-lines; now we also have to watch who goes to work 😂
According to Stand With Crypto statistics, in the U.S. midterm elections, 397 of the 435 House seats have been decided, with 226 crypto supporters elected and 106 opponents; for the Senate, 33 of the 35 contested seats have been decided, with 19 supporters and 8 opponents elected. I think this is good news for policy communication, but we are still far from rules being implemented, and headcounts cannot be equated with bill passage rates.
More supporters mean the industry's demands have a better chance of entering the agenda; but supporting crypto does not mean agreeing with every proposal, and specific clauses still require negotiation; Senate data only covers contested seats and cannot represent the entire chamber's composition. For ordinary users, I care more about whether the rules clearly define responsibilities. Are you cheering for "more people first" or "text finalized before applause"? In this market, do you vote by headcount or grade the work?This AI meal feels a bit strange: those actually selling shovels are getting hit, while those with "intelligent" in their name get served first.
TAO rose 5.08%, NEAR rose 5.25%; meanwhile, on OKX, Micron token xMU dropped 8.48%, SanDisk token xSNDK dropped 9.24%, and triple semiconductor xSOXL plunged 10.66%. The same AI story, but two kinds of workplace injuries.
The background is pretty cold too: the new governor of Texas advocates pausing data center construction, and the market worries about expansion limits. AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled, yet the stock price still fell. Earnings were delivered, but concerns didn’t take a day off.
But I don’t want to directly award AI coins the "comeback against the wind" prize. BTC rose 4.26% in the same period, ETH rose 6.37%, and the gains of TAO and NEAR at this level, if put on a report card, at best just keep up with the class average, not proving the market is voting specifically for AI.
On the chip side, they’re already calculating whether the computer rooms can be built; on the coin side, it seems they haven’t reached the accounting step yet. Both called AI, but the difficulty level of the homework is completely different 😂
Which side are you on: AI coins trading on independent AI expectations, or just riding the market rally? #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $TAO $NEAR #CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows by 49%
$CRCL current price is about $75, forward PE around 52–58 times, not cheap. The relatively undervalued observation range is $50–60, corresponding to a PE of about 35–40 times
However, the premise is that core reserve income no longer deteriorates and Arc progresses as scheduled. If it falls below $50, the market is pricing in a continued shrinkage of USDC circulation
For substantial benefits to stablecoins (such as GENIUS implementation, SEC zero capital discount recognition), if it drives USDC circulation to end year-on-year zero growth
Valuation has a probability to move toward the institutional consensus target price of $107.56, about a 43% increase from the current price, but there is significant divergence, with Citi at $243 and Morgan Stanley at $34
Looking back historically, the 52-week high was $140, about 86% higher than the current price, and earlier near $299 was a frenzy valuation with limited reference value 🤔
Currently, $50–60 belongs to the “undervalued” observation range, while $107 is the institutional consensus target price, and $140 is a historical emotional high
If USDC’s end-of-period circulation can return to double-digit growth, then Circle is expected to rise further 🤔 Pay attention to risks! Today is Thursday, November 5, 2026.
November has just begun, and the global macro game has already experienced an extremely intense "reshuffle." The U.S. midterm elections have just concluded, with the Democratic Party regaining control of Congress (establishing a divided government). Coupled with subtle changes in geopolitical negotiations, a very typical "political risk aversion and repricing logic" has evolved across asset classes.
Here's a brief overview of the underlying transmission mechanisms of these recent major events:
Midterm elections concluded: Why is there heavy selling pressure on U.S. stocks while gold and bond markets surge?
After the midterm elections settled, the market is rapidly shifting from "election uncertainty" to pricing in "policy friction and regulatory scrutiny":
U.S. stocks and tech stocks squeezed (sharp declines/rebalancing): After the Democrats took control of Congress, concerns about subsequent regulatory restrictions on big tech and AI sectors, data center approvals, and antitrust inquiries have risen sharply. Previously overvalued, high-capital-expenditure tech stocks and Trump-related concept stocks faced concentrated sell-offs.
Dollar index decline & U.S. Treasuries/gold rebound: The divided Congress makes it much harder to further explode fiscal deficits (massive stimulus/tax cuts), curbing inflation expansion expectations and causing the dollar index to fall. Risk-free yields have dropped from the previous 5.1%+ highs, prompting funds to flow into gold and bond markets for safety.
Operationally, patience is still required. Focus on observing the support strength of oil prices around $100 and whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can remain steadily below 5.0%, waiting for the market to provide a more solid right-side base