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Democrats control both chambers, $BTC rebounds instead of falling: What might the bears have missed?
With Democrats taking both the House and Senate, Trump's fiscal and regulatory agenda for the next two years will face stronger constraints. Logically, policy uncertainty leans bearish, but BTC did not continue to decline; instead, it quickly pulled back from below $76,000, approaching $78,000 again.
The key is not just the "bad news priced in," but that capital is repricing: after the election results became clear, the dollar weakened and risk appetite warmed; on election day, BTC options saw large block trades with a nominal value of about $660 million, with bullish buys dominating, and short covering may have amplified the rebound.
Historically, BTC has risen about 53.7% on average in the 12 months following the last three midterm elections, but the sample size is too small to mechanically extrapolate this round.
My view: short-term blind shorting is not advisable; short positions near $79,488 must have clear invalidation conditions. Going forward, focus on ETF capital flows, the dollar index trend, and whether the price can hold key resistance. You can stick to your directional view, but don't stubbornly bear the risk.
$BTC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #美國期中選舉：民主黨贏得國會兩院控制權 Unexpectedly, it quickly rebounded to the previous consolidation range. BTC and ETH are struggling to break upward here, and it is highly likely that they will maintain a period of consolidation.SOL｜About $95.23: Weak oscillation this week, baseline observation range 93.5—98.5
Last night surged to 98.06, then retreated to 94.65 by early morning, the most significant pullback among the three. Current price is below the 10-day moving average of about 97.13 and also below the 20-day moving average of about 100.75.
Bullish shift: First reclaim 98—98.5, then see if the daily chart can hold 100—101; only after confirming the latter is there stronger support for a recovery to 103—104.
Bearish shift: If 93.5—94 breaks and fails to recover, be cautious of retesting 89.7—90.
There are two important test points this week: the US employment report at 21:30 on November 6 and the US CPI at 21:30 on November 10. Whether the above supports hold after data release is a better indicator of rebound sustainability than a brief surge before the release. ETH｜About $2,421: Weekly oscillation with an upward bias, focus on whether it can break through 2,500
Last night it surged to 2,448, currently still holding above 2,400, with a smaller pullback compared to SOL. Among the three, I am more optimistic about ETH continuing to test upward this week.
Strengthening: Support holds at 2,375—2,390 on pullbacks, then breaks through 2,445—2,450, expected to challenge the 50-day moving average near 2,500—2,510. Only after stabilizing on the daily chart will it be upgraded to a clearer uptrend.
Weakening: If 2,335—2,350 fails to hold, the rebound structure will significantly weaken, with the downside first looking at 2,300. BTC｜About 80,144: Weekly tendency to fluctuate between 78,000—82,000
After surging to 81,131 last night, it fell back and is currently holding near 80,000. The rebound brought the price back near the 20-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average around 81,900 above remains a resistance.
Bullish signal: Holding 79,500—80,000 and stabilizing above 81,800—82,000 on the daily chart provides a stronger basis to target 83,000—84,000.
Bearish signal: If it breaks below 78,000 and the rebound fails to recover, be cautious of retesting near 75,600.Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +1.22%, with the first-level pairing scale about $113; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 1%. Under small capacity, impact will quickly eat up the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +0.56%, with the first-level pairing scale about $2; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact ratio.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the near-buy far-sell first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +0.34%, far-month annualized +0.54%; marked near-far difference +0.19%, near-buy far-sell first-level quote spread -1.12%. The executable direction is opposite to the mark.Democrats sweep both chambers, crypto market dips first out of respect
With the midterm election results finalized, the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. The previously hyped "crypto-friendly easing" expectations in the market were instantly discounted. BTC promptly broke below 76,000, ETH followed trembling, with no decent resistance visible on the price charts.
The logic is straightforward: regulatory hawks like Warren are about to take charge of the Banking Committee, and the CLARITY Act will basically be shelved until next year. Until the bill is passed, exchanges, stablecoins, and DeFi will all have to endure in a gray area. The market isn't afraid of bad news, but of no news — and that's exactly the current state.
In the midterm, BTC still depends on liquidity; how tightly the Fed turns the faucet is more tangible than who controls Capitol Hill. ETH depends on whether subsequent ETF and L2 narratives can withstand regulatory rhetoric, as the imagination for the application layer still exists, though short-term macro sentiment is pressing it down.
Operationally, don't chase news stubbornly. This crypto wave is priced on "uncertainty discount," and until that discount is repaired, any rebound is a window to reduce positions. Old coins like ZEC may occasionally jump, but don't take that as a trend signal.
In short: change of control in both chambers, bills stalled, liquidity depends on the Fed's mood, ETH depends on whether the ecosystem can self-sustain. Wait for the wind, don't wait for the knife to fall.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Individual stock perpetual contracts were just approved, but industry organizations have already filed lawsuits
After the CFTC announced that individual stock perpetual futures can be traded on qualified markets, institutions such as Capital Markets Alliance filed lawsuits attempting to block the related authorization. Participants include industry forces supported by Cboe and Citadel Securities.
The controversy centers on whether these contracts should be regarded as security futures or possibly fall under the regulatory scope of other securities derivatives. The interpretation of regulatory authority may determine whether the product can expand smoothly in the future.
This reminds me that there is still a gap between policy announcements and legal implementation. Traders should not only focus on the positive statements from regulators but also pay attention to court procedures and subsequent rules.
The $BTC market has also experienced regulatory disputes in the past. The long-term direction may be compliance, but the short term will still be affected by lawsuits, approvals, and product restrictions.
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress
Brothers, the results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both houses of Congress. Old Mo straight up says: this is definitely a midterm bearish signal for the crypto space.
Why? The Senate Banking Committee is very likely to be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher.
So why did Bitcoin violently surge to 81,199? This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Before the election, everyone feared a Democratic win and forcibly pushed the price down to 75,690. Now that the results are out and the bearish news is fully priced in, shorts are forced to cover, and combined with a short squeeze in the options market, it triggered a strong bullish candle.
But remember, after the emotional venting, we still have to face reality. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Previously, U.S. institutions wanting to trade perpetual contracts basically had to go through overseas channels. Now Coinbase Prime has opened the door.
According to PANews, Coinbase Prime is opening regulated global options and perpetual contract trading to institutional clients in the U.S. and other eligible regions. U.S. and global traders share the same liquidity pool, with market-making liquidity provided by Deribit. The initial coverage includes more than 20 assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, AVAX, and HYPE. Collateral support includes BTC, ETH, and USDC, with plans to expand further.
Observation 1: The inclusion of mainstream coins and high-volatility assets like HYPE in the initial list usually means deeper contract liquidity and incremental capital entering the institutional channel. Observation 2: The risk lies in whether U.S. institutions will actually deposit funds and generate trading volume, and that after the launch of perpetual contracts, the leverage crowding on the same batch of assets will increase, leading to more severe liquidations during sharp rises and falls.
Are you more focused on the mainstays like BTC and ETH in the initial list, or on more elastic assets like HYPE, AVAX, and XRP? The US stock market performed quite well, with AMD playing a major role.
AMD's Q3 data center revenue reached 8.546 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. The Q4 guidance of 17 billion exceeded expectations, causing after-hours trading to surge over 9%. Nvidia followed with a 2.29% increase, reclaiming the global No.1 market cap spot from Apple. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, CoreWeave rose over 7%, and Oracle gained nearly 6%. But honestly, half of this rebound is just a recovery from the heavy October sell-off; the semiconductor index dropped 15% that month, so it's not entirely due to a sudden improvement in fundamentals. AMD's free cash flow actually looks poor, down 64% year-over-year, with inventory piling up nearly 3 billion. The market is currently choosing to focus on revenue guidance first.$BTC 在七万七千美元附近徘徊，$ETH 站在两千三百美元上方，$SOL 则卡在九十三美元一线——今天三者同步微涨，喊“反转来了”的声音又开始冒头。但把这波走势拆开看，它更像一次超卖后的技术性修复，而不是趋势的重新点火🔥 先看最硬的证据：整段周期的成交量几乎已经枯竭。这意味着什么？意味着这轮上行不是新资金进场推动的，而是空头平仓叠加一层极薄的买盘，把价格“抬”了起来。量能是行情的燃料，燃料没加，车却动了，这本身就值得警惕。 第二个信号藏在清算数据里。最近几个小时的爆仓单绝大多数是空头，换句话说，市场正在清理那些在最低位追空的人。这种“挤空式”反弹的典型特征是：来得快，但缺乏持续性，因为它的驱动力是止损，而不是共识。 第三个信号最关键——日线级别的结构。该修复的位置一个都没修好。价格可以骗人，量能可以骗人，但结构不会。在日线框架没有给出明确转向信号之前，任何反弹都只能定义为反弹。 所以当前位置很尴尬：追多，是在接反弹的飞刀；在顶部做空，是往挤空行情的枪口上撞。真正值得做的，是等它修复到位，等量能和结构同时给出清晰信号，再下注。急躁从来不是进场的理由，耐心才是这个阶段最稀缺的仓位。 一Nasdaq has approved the listing registration of Canary Staked INJ ETF, ticker INJC.
According to PANews, Nasdaq has approved the Form 8-A12B listing registration for Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) under Canary Capital. The fund plans to stake at least 90% of INJ on the network, with BitGo as the custodian. It still requires the S-1 registration statement to become effective before it can be publicly traded. This is Injective's first staking ETF to receive a listing admission.
Opinion: If the compliance channel opens, staking operations may continuously lock up part of the circulating supply, providing medium-term buying support for INJ; however, short-term movements are more driven by sentiment catalysts, and real incremental funds will wait until the product officially launches.
Scenario 1: S-1 becomes effective and fundraising begins, with focus on whether the first-day scale and staking ratio can remain stable above 90%. Scenario 2: Listing is delayed or fundraising falls short of expectations, in which case the benefits of this small-cap ETF are easily quickly given back.
Are you more concerned about the timing of the S-1 effectiveness or the scale of the first-day fundraising? $RIOT
Miners are the leverage of BTC, but this statement is only half true tonight.
After RIOT's earnings report, it rose 16.6%, HUT fell 21%, and MARA only dropped 1.9%. BTC itself only rose 3.5% in 24 hours. The same sector, three different directions.
RIOT's rise is not from mining. It signed a 15-year lease with an unnamed cutting-edge AI lab for the Corsicana campus' 910MW, with an initial contract of $28 billion, two renewals fully exercised totaling $54 billion, and long-term data center contract revenue reported at $38 billion.
The cost is written in the earnings report: in the first nine months of this year, it sold 20,264 BTC, about $1.5 billion; in Q3 alone, it sold 10,599 BTC, 6.5 times the 1,637 BTC mined in the same period, with holdings dropping from 11,380 BTC to 2,418 BTC.
HUT's revenue declined and was pushed down 20% pre-market. MARA has no story, just follows BTC's movement. On OKX, RIOT perpetual positions are only $110,000, the 16% rise is thinly traded and ridiculous, don't use it as a sentiment indicator.
Now the pricing for miners is based on electricity and land, not computing power. Last year I was still calculating their shutdown price, but that calculation is now completely off.
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress $ZEC
1352, the high point ZEC touched last night at 11 PM. Now at 1286, a 4.8% pullback in four hours, but still showing +6.3% over 24 hours.
The breaking news is still reporting that the NU7 upgrade activation is imminent, and ZEC reached 1313. 1313 was the price around 10 o'clock; those who chased in then are now underwater.
I'm watching open interest and volume. At 10 PM, open interest was $189 million, now $177.9 million, down by $11.5 million. One-hour trading volume shrank from 16.83 million contracts to 1.26 million contracts, down to one-thirteenth. The spike up is even stranger: price pushed higher, but open interest dropped by 3.49%.
The reduction in open interest during the spike strongly suggests short covering, not new longs taking over. The funding rate confirms this — it rose over six basis points, the upgrade is imminent, yet the perpetual funding rate is stuck at the 0.01% baseline, not a penny premium.
If someone were rushing to front-run NU7, the funding rate wouldn't be this quiet. I won't chase this structure; I'll wait for the upgrade to land and the corresponding K-line to appear before making a move.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Sony Earnings Report Expectations: How Did the Gaming and Music Sectors Perform?
🚨 Two Bitcoin mining companies sold thousands of bitcoins to fund artificial intelligence projects
🔴 Riot (RIOT) sold 20,264 bitcoins this year to fund an AI data center and currently holds 2,418 bitcoins. HUT (HUT)$BTC 👀 复盘美国中期选举后的$BTC走势，2018与2022确实都出现过明显回撤，但把这两次直接套到今天，并不严谨。
关键差异在价格位置：前两次回撤启动前，BTC已在一年低点附近，情绪脆弱、缓冲不足；眼下BTC较年内低点高出约33%，市场成本、杠杆和持仓结构都不同。
这并不意味着风险消失，而是说“选举后必跌”并非固定剧本。历史能提供风险提示，却不能替代对当下流动性、资金面和情绪的判断。
对$BTC 而言，更值得关注的是关键支撑是否失守、成交量能否配合，而不是只盯着年份做类比。历史可复盘，交易要就事论事。
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Strategy showed divergent signals in treasury operations last week
From October 26 to November 1, Strategy raised funds through a common stock issuance to purchase 811 BTC, spending about $65.5 million at an average price of $80,846, increasing its total holdings to 849,327 BTC.
However, in the same week, the company used about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, an amount more than three times the expenditure on buying BTC, causing the USD cash reserve to drop sharply from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million.
Institutional funding also showed weakness. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this was significantly narrower than the approximately $398.6 million outflow on November 2, indicating a weakening outflow momentum.
Personal judgment: Strategy's moves this week lean more towards optimizing the preferred stock liabilities rather than simply increasing long positions, so it is not advisable to view this as a basis for trend-based long positions in the short term.
On the market, BTC in the Asian morning session fell under pressure from around 78,000, currently trading near 77,000, with a 24-hour high-low range of about 78,049/76,360 and a funding rate of about 0.01%.
Short-term focus is on the 76,800 support level, which was tested multiple times in the morning session; if it breaks down effectively, consider reducing positions. The first resistance is at 77,500, and only after stabilizing above this can the target of 78,000 be considered. Stop loss is set below 76,500, with a target temporarily at 78,000, maintaining a light position.WLD、TAO、RENDER今天全部下跌约4%—5%，过去7天的跌幅也都超过12%。AI板块没有出现明显的资金回流，前期跌幅越深的方向，反而越难形成有效反弹。
$WLD 目前约0.37美元，过去7天下跌超过14%。0.36—0.366美元是第一支撑，上方0.385—0.39美元存在压力。重新站稳0.40美元才能改善结构，跌破0.36美元则要防继续测试0.34美元。
$TAO 目前约220美元，过去7天下跌约12.4%。218—220美元先看承接，上方228—232美元存在压力。突破235美元才能扩大修复，失守218美元则要防继续测试210美元。TAO近期相对抗跌，但短期依然偏弱。
$RENDER 目前约1.48美元，过去7天下跌约13.5%。1.46—1.48美元是第一支撑，上方1.54—1.57美元存在压力。重新站稳1.60美元才能改善结构，跌破1.45美元则要防继续下探。RENDER尚未出现明显止跌信号。ETF流出、机构减速，唱衰派还没喊够，可BTC已重新站回8万了！（多军永不言败
10月30日和11月2日，美国现货BTC ETF累计净流出约10.42亿美元，企业财库增持也在放缓。
随后虽然ETF流出有所收窄，但市场仍认为买盘不足，反弹缺乏持续资金支撑。
可
到了11月4日至5日，行情却给出了另一种答案。美国中期选举结果逐渐明朗，政治不确定性消退，加密市场开始修复。
尤其今天BTC重新站上8万美元，ETH从2200多美元反弹至2400美元上方，表现尤其突出。
反观SOL，涨幅明显落后（这次多少有点跟不上队伍了 再骂它一次
BTC：80,396美元，+3.52%
ETH：2,431美元，+5.77%
SOL：96.94美元，+3.55%
现在的割裂感越来越明显：ETF资金流出，价格却在修复；
BTC站稳8万，
ETH领涨，
SOL相对滞后
唱衰的声音或许可以先消停一会儿了。资金流出不代表市场只能下跌，
接下来就看这轮修复能不能持续
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $APR Regarding this coin, I have also been continuously following it for nearly half a year. Recently, on-chain transaction volume showed that the whale was accumulating positions with increased volume for two days. After a recent spike and pullback, the current price is in the cost zone where the whale previously accumulated. I believe going long here offers a much better risk-reward ratio than going short, so it's worth taking a chance.This building has no load-bearing walls, yet it plans to add three more floors. $DOGE has surged 5.43% in 24 hours. From a structural review perspective, this looks more like a facade renovation rather than a main structure elevation.
First, let's look at the constraints of the enclosure structure. Within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price has already reached 72% of the band range, with only 1.0% of clearance left before hitting the upper band, while downward there is still a 2.6% retracement buffer. The mid-term is even more extreme. The price stands at 92% of the band range, only 0.7% from the upper band, but 8.4% away from the lower band. This is equivalent to pushing the building's footprint to the cantilever limit, then fully loading the eaves with materials. The floor height seems sufficient, but the load path is missing.
Next, look at the stress indicators. The one-hour RSI has crossed the critical line of 64, the short-term value is 67.9, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3. The two curves differ by nearly 18 points. This is a typical "upper structure is moving, foundation is not." The short-term momentum is supported by scaffolding, but the long-term foundation has not caught up at all. Such a node on the blueprint requires a re-calculation of the load transfer path.
So my judgment is clear: this is high-altitude work, not foundation construction. The signal direction given is downward correction, and I will not chase longs at the cantilever end; I will wait for the price to be pushed to a temporary support level before placing short orders.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.0724 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 0.0666 (-4.9%)
Take Profit 2: 0.0646 (-7.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.0800 (current price +14.3%)
Take Profit 1 is near the short-term lower band. That is the first place with real concrete. Take Profit 2 reaches the mid-term 8.4% buffer zone. The stop loss is set at a 14.3% height because although this building has no load-bearing walls, the short-term wind load can still push the price through the 1% upper band margin. The budget must be sufficient; the safety factor must never be compressed to one.
Whether a project is worth holding long-term is never judged by how lively the renderings are. It is judged by how many retracements it can withstand without collapsing.$HYPE price is still wobbling upwards, but when you check on-chain, the largest external holder is dumping tokens to the exchange every day. They sold $15 million in five days and still have a few million tokens untouched. The buyback funds used to support the price are not even a fraction of what they unlocked, so the buy side simply can't handle this volume. Everyone thinks it's a short squeeze, but the main players have already pocketed the cash.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Trump said in one sentence, "We have done our best," basically declaring the overall situation settled.
What does it mean? The control of Congress is lost, and the previously hyped crypto-friendly bills and crypto capital plans are directly blocked and hard to advance.
The Democrats took both the House and Senate, a rare big win in forty years, but the biggest risk for the crypto circle is not the bills being stuck. The biggest fear is sudden geopolitical news after election losses. Once news of Middle East military action breaks out, it will cause a double-sided spike, killing both bulls and bears, and no one can escape.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations in advance, with Bitcoin showing a daily bearish pattern, ETFs continuously seeing outflows, and $ETH ETFs bleeding longer, making its rebound inherently weaker than $BTC. Those who have recently doubled their gains are advised to take profits first and not chase the tail-end rally.
All current market moves are expectation games; only after the election is fully settled will a true trend emerge.
Going forward, focus on $SPCX as it is the leading signal of this round of risk asset sentiment. If you have no direction, visit the homepage study group for operational ideas.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 昨晚最脆的一环，其实是那个喝多了没来得及按下的平仓键。 你有没有过那种"本来想跑，结果命运替我扛单"的瞬间？ 醒来看到仓位还在，第一反应不是庆幸，是心口一紧。BTC 开仓 79432.1、现价 76609.8，浮亏 300.27U，ROI -355.29%，100 倍杠杆下每根小阳线都像在试探我的保证金底线；SOL 从 95.79 滑到 91.37，浮亏 63.33U，ROI -92.28%，弱势震荡里最磨人的不是跌，是反复给你希望又收回去；只有 ETH 从 2243.35 挪到 2253.65，浮盈 6.1U，ROI +9.18%，小得像一颗糖，却是唯一没让我皱眉的仓位。 这件事真正值得聊的，不是"喝酒误事"这个梗，而是高杠杆把风险管理的容错压到几乎为零。100 倍意味着价格反向走 1%，本金就接近归零，所谓"保证金比例还安全"只是暂时的呼吸空间，不是安全垫。更隐蔽的是心理层面：当三条仓位同时挂着，人会自动进入"等反弹再走"的模式，FOMO 和犹豫交替出现，叙事疲劳也跟着来，最后不是被行情打败，是被自己的盯盘节奏拖垮。 偏多的路径也不是没有：BTC 若守住当前区间、ETH 相对抗跌能事件：币安：98%被盗资产已完成回填，储备金证明快照扩至44种代币 这件事。同类情况大多数时候改不了趋势，能改趋势的是钱的方向。 当下的盘面坐标： · BTC 现价 80,243.10，24 小时 +3.45% · ETH 现价 2,418.10，24 小时 +5.53% · 现货 USDT 对里 206 个上涨 / 94 个下跌（成交额 ≥ 10 万美元口径） 可以顺着这三点往下想： 1）接下来的 24 小时里量能是放大还是缩小，是判断它有没有被市场接受的最快指标； 2）同类标的有没有跟涨或跟跌，联动说明资金在按板块给定价； 3）资金费率有没有转向，杠杆情绪常常比现货价格更早松口。 这可能和你的直觉相反，说说你的看法？ 评论区留个判断，明天回来对一对谁看对了。$SNDK
Storage stocks are under pressure again, and strong AI demand has not been able to stop the sell-off.
Election impacts and concerns over storage prices have dragged down SanDisk and its peers, despite strong AI data center demand and SanDisk's record revenue, the sell-off continues.
I am cautious: negative factors and weak market sentiment coincide, with 1H and 4H both below EMA20, EMA20 below EMA50, and RSI14 at 34.8 and 35.0 respectively; I am closely watching the 1,016.3 support level.
OKX data: SNDK 1,030.90 USDT, 24h -7.77%, volume 1.75B USDT.
Do you think AI demand can offset the pressure on storage prices?
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#DemocratsWinCongress $STX Bullish news: BitGo opens Bitcoin staking, requiring 5% STX per transaction, STX rises 9.8% in one day
STX is currently priced at $0.3558, up 9.75% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.3185 to 0.3657, with a trading volume of about $6 million
On November 3, BitGo announced opening Bitcoin staking based on Stacks to institutional clients, with BTC kept in BitGo's qualified custody, pairing 5% STX based on the staked BTC value, locked for about 6 months
This effectively opens an institutional demand channel for STX; the more BTC staked, the more STX must be locked, reducing the circulating supply
The first two staking rounds have attracted about 735 BTC; the next round is expected to open around November 10, at which time the increased scale will directly reflect STX's locked demand.This ruling reads like saying: "Don't rush, I'm not stopping it yet." "But you make a good point, you might win."
The U.S. judge rejected the injunction to pause the CFTC's approval of individual stock perpetuals, with a simple reason: the plaintiff didn't prove that there would be no time to remedy. Then the judge admitted that the plaintiff's claim that the CFTC has no authority to approve such products might succeed.
The product moves forward, but its classification is not yet determined. Those trading $BTC $ETH perpetuals are temporarily unaffected, but if they are truly classified as securities swaps, the rules will need to be rewritten. The CFTC will respond on November 6, and the plaintiff will reply on November 10.ETH is stuck below the 2,309 cost line, with US funds selling.
The current price is around 2,280, and it can't break above 2,309 on the rebound. This level represents the average on-chain holding cost; failing to surpass it indicates that selling pressure is stronger than buying pressure. Coinbase premium index is at -0.161, with selling pressure mainly from US investors. ETF net outflows have continued for six consecutive days, with a record 1.61 billion in October alone.This time, the U.S. court did not block the approval of single-stock perpetual contracts, but it conveniently put the question of "who should regulate this" on the table.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied a motion for a temporary restraining order filed by the Capital Markets Alliance Association, which sought to halt the CFTC's approval of single-stock perpetuals. The court disagreed, reasoning that the plaintiff failed to demonstrate that without immediate relief, its members would suffer imminent and irreparable harm. The threshold was originally "too late," and the approval process is still ongoing.
However, the judge offered some consolation to the plaintiff in the ruling: the plaintiff's claim that "the CFTC lacks authority to approve these products as securities futures" may succeed, as these contracts better fit the SEC-regulated swap definition. This statement is weightier than the denial — the products currently approved might be reclassified in the future.
The timeline became the most concrete element. The CFTC must respond by November 6, and the plaintiff must reply by November 10. Two windows, two points to watch.
For those dealing with perpetuals, the short term means approval continues, the medium term means jurisdiction remains undecided. Mainstream perpetuals of $BTC and $ETH are not directly constrained, but if single-stock perpetuals are classified as securities swaps, the compliance cost model for perpetuals will need to be recalculated, and offshore venues will be affected as well.
That phrase "may succeed" is actually telling the plaintiff: no need to rush for an emergency injunction; going through normal litigation can also overturn the approval. The battle line is extended, not ended.The more sluggish the Bitcoin market is, the more I focus on this brewing on-chain golden cross!
This observation comes from brother wander! This chart is worth studying repeatedly.
As of November 2, $BTC is about 76.7K, the real market average price TMMP is about 77.65K, the short-term holder cost STH-RP is about 75.88K, and the two lines differ by only about $1,800! Looking back carefully at the history of 2016, 2019, and 2023, after STH-RP crossed above TMMP again, the market gradually entered a new recovery phase. What is truly worth paying attention to behind this is the readjustment of the short-term holding cost structure and the overall active market cost.
Of course, the golden cross has not yet formed, and BTC has not yet firmly stood above TMMP. Before the golden cross in 2023, there was also a long period of repeated bottoming. I have always insisted that BTC has exited the bear market and entered the early stage of a bull market, but the early bull market is never smooth sailing; it gradually completes structural repair through oscillations, shakeouts, and chip turnovers. Next, the key is to observe whether STH-RP can continue to rise and complete the golden cross, and whether the price can effectively recover around 77.65K.
The more pessimistic the market sentiment, the more we need to calmly observe those on-chain structures that are quietly changing! The bull market will not end because of a few pessimistic remarks, nor will it immediately take off because of a single golden cross.
True trend changes often happen when most people are still doubting!After the first three U.S. midterm elections,
$BTC actually wasn’t very “friendly”:
2014: It rose for about 9 days, peaking over 40%, then steadily declined;
2018: It only held up for one day, then the maximum drawdown was nearly 50%;
2022: It hit the FTX crash and continued to fall after the election.
This election day, BTC rose from 76,000 to around 78,600, more like a short squeeze first— or is it the start of a new rally?
In the short term, the chance of a short squeeze is indeed high. Because it fell after the previous three elections, many have gotten used to shorting; when shorts get crowded, it’s actually harder to push down, so if it’s really going to fall, it has to first rally to clear out the shorts. "Gradual decline wears you down, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal"
Mainstream coins continued to weaken this morning, with BTC at $76,983, ETH at $2,266, SOL around $92, and OKB at $107.14. The drop isn't large, but the rebound is slow to come; this kind of slow, simmering decline is more patience-testing than a sharp fall.
The core issue isn't lack of funds, but that buyers are unwilling to keep attacking. Glassnode shows BTC spot still has support, but contract leverage pressure hasn't fully eased; combined with midterm elections, employment data, and macro policy expectations, funds naturally remain cautious. No positive news doesn't mean prices will hold steady; with buyers absent, the price base may continue to slowly shift downward.
How long will the adjustment last? Don't guess the days, watch three signals: whether volume can expand, whether capital flow can turn positive, and whether sentiment can recover together. Without resonance among these three, small bullish candles look more like repair than reversal. Currently, time is being exchanged for space—chase fewer small rebounds and wait more for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Posting as evidence! This time it's just short covering! This week we'll see BTC starting with 7 again!
$BTC
Short-term sharp pull-up of 4%, jumping directly from 78,300 to the 80,000 mark;
$ETH
Even more elastic, rising from 2226 all the way to 2450, an increase of nearly 7%.
There are two main drivers behind this rally:
First, the US midterm elections have settled, with the Democrats taking both chambers, removing the uncertainty hanging over the market. The Nasdaq opened up about 2%, risk asset sentiment warmed up, and funds flowed back into the crypto market accordingly.
Second, after the price broke through around 80,000, a large number of short positions were liquidated, accelerating the short squeeze rally and pushing the gains higher.
But one key point must be clear: spot ETFs have still seen net outflows for three consecutive days as of November 3, totaling about 1.16 billion outflows.
This means this round of rally is not driven by sustained long-term spot capital inflows; the core incremental capital from ETFs has not arrived.
Essentially, this is a concentrated release of suppressed short-term sentiment, a pulse rally caused by short stop-losses.
It looks strong with bullish candles now, but the sustainability is questionable. Don’t chase it as if a new bull trend has started. The characteristic of a short squeeze rally is that it comes fast, and once the stop-loss orders are digested, it can quickly fizzle out and fall back.
⚠️ Personal market record only, not trading advice Index kicks out hoarding stocks, is it the stocks or the coins that get hit?
MSCI will announce the final list affected by the "Non-Operating Company" rule on November 11. Strategy, Metaplanet, and others previously appeared as potential removal candidates; the rule focuses on the proportion of operating assets and financial screening, not specifically targeting Bitcoin. If removal occurs, it will take effect after the close on November 30.
Passive funds sell stocks, not BTC spot — the pressure is more likely to hit financing/fundraising channels, which does not mean the company is forced to sell coins. An undecided list ≠ already out; kicked out of the index ≠ crashing the coin.
Are you more focused on the November 11 list, or on tomorrow's non-farm payroll?
(Media restates MSCI rules and candidate list, confidence medium)
$BTCOrder Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$HUMA cost differences mainly appear in large buy orders. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.25%/0.21%, and for 100,000 scale is 2.74%/1.71%. The asymmetry is an execution issue, not a price movement signal.
$AKE after amplifying orders, slippage on both entry and exit sides increases significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.32%/0.36%, and for 100,000 scale is 1.60%/1.36%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall shallow depth.
$CAP large buy and sell costs rise simultaneously. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy/sell rises from 0.62%/0.62% to 0.68%/0.69%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are increasing.【BTC Short Position Review: This Time the Rebound Really Hurt!📉】
Totally lost! Public positions were reduced in time and stop-losses set to exit, but my own short positions weren't handled promptly.
Reviewing this BTC $BTC rebound, there are three main reasons:
1️⃣ Election sentiment recovery: Political uncertainty faded, and oversold BTC saw a rebound.
2️⃣ Concentrated short liquidations: A large number of short positions were forcibly closed, further pushing the price up.
3️⃣ Macro environment support: US Treasury yields fell, ETF funds flowed back temporarily, providing momentum for the rebound.
However, there are concerns with this rise: Derivatives buying is strong, but whether active spot demand keeps up remains to be seen.
Next, focus on the resistance zone between $81,300–$81,755.
The biggest lesson this time: Directional judgment is only part of trading; stop-loss and position management are equally important.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #OKXOrbitAfter dropping to around $75.7K, $BTC has climbed back near $80.4K. That’s a decent recovery, but the next move matters more. Personally, I’m watching the $80K–$80.5K zone closely. Holding above it could improve sentiment, while another rejection may bring selling pressure back. One thing I’ve learned: a green candle can bring hope, but confirmation matters more than excitement. Do you think BTC has found its bottom, or is another retest still possible? #$BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #EarningsWaHere are 8 versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? ✨ In the short term, there will be pressure and volatility, and risks from tightening regulatory policies; the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
>
> ✨ Mid-to-long-term strategy
> After this uncertainty settles, the long-term development logic of AI will remain unchanged, and ultimately the market trend will still return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? Short term will have pressure and volatility, also facing risks of regulatory tightening, the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations. Mid-to-long-term strategy: after this uncertainty settles, AI's long-term development logic will not change, and the market trend will ultimately return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 3 - Trader's Version*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point?
> Short term: pressure + volatility, regulatory tightening risk, market sharp fluctuations
> Mid-to-long-term strategy: wait for uncertainty to settle, AI's long-term logic unchanged, ultimately returns to earnings and profit growth
*Version 4 - Professional Version*
> Democratic Party's big win, will the US stock market see a turning point? In the short term, there will be pressure and volatility, and risks from tightening regulatory policies; the market is likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
>
> Mid-to-long-term strategy: after this uncertainty settles, AI's long-term development logic will remain unchanged, and ultimately the market trend will still return to corporate performance and profit growth.
*Version 5 - Colloquial Version*
> The Democratic Party won big, and the US stock market... 🚨 $TRUMP continues to weaken, getting closer to its historical low!
After news of the Republican election loss spread, TRUMP once dropped to around $1.48, with political sentiment and market selling pressure both impacting the price performance.
What makes this token special is that its market narrative is highly tied to Trump's personal influence. As market sentiment cools, investor confidence is also shaken.
Currently, the key focus is on the historical low near $1.30. If this support breaks, the price may continue to seek lower support; a rebound would need to watch the resistance in the $1.55–$1.60 range.
The biggest risk for sentiment tokens is the sustained selling pressure after the narrative fades. Do not blindly bottom-fish, and do not ignore risk management.
#TRUMP #Crypto #Bitcoin #OKXOrbit
The above is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Big Brother Maji is really rich! It feels like no matter how much he loses on these bullets, he just can't run out of them. I just took a look at his position, and he's nearly at 17 million dollars again. 😳
Let's check out his latest holdings:
👉ETH long position (25X full margin)
Opening price: 2362.72
Position: 6960 units (margin 677,600 U)
Unrealized profit: +494,700 U
A few days ago, Big Brother Maji was still adjusting his position with losses, but somehow he managed to bring in a large amount of margin again, and now he's made nearly 500,000 dollars in profit. This blood recovery is really fierce.
But the current market is a bit tough. The election is settled, and funds are watching from the sidelines. BTC is stuck around 80,000, neither up nor down, and ETH softened after reaching 2450. The ETF is still running away, relying entirely on whales to support the bottom. Sideways trading with low volume is the easiest to get sudden spikes and dips. Let's see if Big Brother can hold steady, so he doesn't lose all the profits in a big pullback again. 🤣
$BTC $HYPE $ETH RVN Birth: "The Last True Son of Satoshi Nakamoto's Spirit"
2017 was a year of frenzy in the crypto market, with countless projects rapidly launching through ICO fundraising, pre-mined tokens, and venture capital manipulation, deviating from Bitcoin's original spirit of fairness, openness, and decentralization. It was in this environment that Ravencoin (RVN) was born, carrying the essence of Bitcoin's native spirit, regarded by part of the community as a representative PoW public chain steadfastly adhering to Satoshi Nakamoto's original path.
The project's launch timing is full of symbolism: the whitepaper information was released on October 31, the anniversary of Bitcoin's whitepaper publication, and the genesis block was mined on January 3, 2018—coinciding with the ninth anniversary of Bitcoin's genesis block, thereby declaring its inheritance of Bitcoin's foundational philosophy. The development team includes former Bitcoin Foundation members, and the underlying code is forked from Bitcoin's UTXO architecture, fully continuing the core PoW consensus mechanism.
Most importantly, it strictly adheres to fair issuance principles: no ICO, no private sale, no pre-mining, no founder's reserved shares. Before network launch, no tokens were pre-allocated; all RVN can only be mined after launch, with no early capital or development team advantage in token holdings, fundamentally avoiding the centralization issues common in most new projects. Unlike many contemporaneous public chains heavily reliant on institutional capital, RVN has no external venture capital-led capital planning; its development depends on community and miner support, with no narrative compromises under capital binding. 🚨 $BTC: Bull Trap or Real Reversal?
Bitcoin surged from $76K to $81K, but was the rally driven by short liquidations rather than fresh buying?
⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty remains
📉 Capital flows need confirmation
👀 $81K breakout needs follow-through
Don't confuse a short squeeze with a trend reversal. Stay cautious and manage risk.
#BTC #DemocratsWinCongress #Crypto #OKX #DailyOrbit🚨 History Repeating? US Midterms Could Shake $BTC!
Past midterms brought major BTC corrections:
📉 2014: -48%
📉 2018: -50%
📉 2022: -16%
Could 2026 bring another wave of volatility?
Watch crypto regulation, fiscal policy, capital flows, and investor sentiment.
History offers clues, not guarantees. 👀
$BTC #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #Crypto #OKX #DailyOrbit🚀 $AMD Beat Is Real. But Can It Close Green?
🔥 Revenue: $13.38B
📈 Data Center: +97%
⚠️ FCF: -64% to $554M
📦 Inventory: $11.46B
The earnings are impressive, but political risks and rising inventory deserve attention.
My call? Bullish, but not blindly. 👀
$AMD
#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% #Stocks #OKX #DailyOrbitIf you chased in around 2,450.30, the current position at 2,421.95 is probably the most uncomfortable. Current coordinates for ETH: current price 2,421.95, 24-hour increase of 5.42%, positioned at the 87th percentile of the 24-hour range 2,226.85 ~ 2,450.30. Breaking this down: the 6 consecutive 1-hour bullish candles with 1.93 times average volume indicate that the volume increase is driven by active capital. The 50-hour moving average is at 2,291.95, and the current price is 5.67% above it, roughly representing the mid-term cost zone of this wave. Key levels: · Above: 2,450.30 (+1.17%), also the 24-hour high · Below: 2,226.85 (-8.06%), also the 24-hour low · 24-hour trading volume 516 million USDT (1H candle basis) · Perpetual funding rate +0.007% / 8h — funding rate turned positive, long position costs are rising The main divergences are stuck on these points: · Bullish reason: current price 2,421.95 is still above the 20-hour moving average at 2,325.31, short-term structure remains intact; · Bearish reason: 24-hour range is only 10.03%, the direction is not yet clear, so chasing price is costly; Funding rate is positive, long position costs are rising, the crowded side is more likely to move first Some say that historically, $BTC tends to perform weakly after the US midterm elections, so this phase is not suitable for trading contracts or using leverage.
But I think we shouldn't just look at the year; we need to consider the technical trend at the time.
Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC was clearly in a bear market phase, with long-term moving averages trending downward and prices continuously suppressed by trendlines.
Now looking at 2026, the market structure has changed: the price has broken through the downtrend line and climbed back above the yearly moving average.
So, we can't simply judge the current market based on past price movements.
History can be a reference, but it shouldn't be copied blindly. What really matters are the trend, position, and market structure.
If BTC returns near the yearly moving average, would you choose to wait and see or look for trading opportunities?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #OKXOrbitBTC dominance is currently trading below the horizontal supply zone of an ascending triangle pattern and is operating within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud, indicating market indecision.
If rejected at the supply zone, it could trigger a further decline in BTC dominance, potentially supporting a bullish trend for altcoins.
On the other hand, a strong breakout above the supply zone could invalidate the bearish scenario and push BTC dominance higher.
Given its strong correlation with cryptocurrencies, the next move of the S&P will play a key role in shaping overall risk sentiment $BTC "The Wyckoff Trading Method" - Supply and Demand
Supply and demand are a pair of important concepts in economic activity. Price fluctuations in any market stem from changes in the supply and demand relationship. Whether in securities, stock markets, futures, or forex markets, a fundamental principle is that imbalances in supply and demand generate trends. What we commonly observe are market phenomena: such as support and resistance, trends, and price-volume fluctuations, all caused by imbalances in supply and demand. However, retail investors often focus more on indicators and geometric patterns, lacking the ability to accurately measure the state of supply and demand at a certain price level or during a specific time period, which leads to misjudgments. For example, in a certain price range, who is controlling the market — the buyers or the sellers? At the early stage of distribution at the top, changes in supply and demand already show that supply begins to exceed demand, signaling danger. Yet the surface price movement on the chart still shows a continued upward breakout, and many technical indicators still give signals to keep buying 📶, making everyone believe the market will continue to rise sharply. The fundamental way to resolve these misjudgments is to use supply and demand relationships to identify institutional positioning. $BTC