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Today's movement in the A-shares market is a bit off — previously when tech stocks fell, banks would usually step in to support the market, but today both tech and banks are falling together, both crashing. This rhythm is very unusual.CPI exploded! 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, inflation hasn't come down, and the pressure to raise interest rates is right in the face. Bulls will probably lose sleep tonight.
Interestingly, the positions in BTC and ETH have both decreased before the data release, with big money running ahead. But the long-short ratio hasn't collapsed; $BTC even bounced to 1.42, $ETH to 1.76, and $SOL is the most extreme at 2.68. Bulls are crowded together, funding rates have turned negative, and shorts are starting to work.
My view: The bearish news is obvious, but the market already dropped in advance. Now the biggest fear is long liquidation, especially for SOL where bulls are clustered. One big drop could trigger a chain reaction. Anyway, I’m not betting on direction; I’ll wait for the first spike and crash to finish, then make a move after seeing clearly.
There will definitely be volatility tonight. Don’t hold heavy positions, don’t hold through losses. Will BTC break below 82,000 first or rebound to 84,000?
#US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, core inflation exceeded expectations
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Most opinions are watching for BTC to break below 80,000 and retest the 200-day moving average before buyers jump in, but the reality might not be like that. This is just to reassure those bottom-fishing in October to get in calmly. Will it really be like this? That would be oversimplifying the capital game. Since the second candle didn't break below 80,800, it basically signals that the stage bottom is between 79,000 and 80,000. Even with today's big CPI negative news, it didn't break down. Those looking to bottom-fish in October might be disappointed again. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Satoshi Nakamoto did not have a hardware wallet, nor did he store assets on centralized exchanges.
His bitcoins have been dormant for over a decade, never having been moved.
No expensive dedicated devices, no third-party custody, and no need for regular hardware upgrades.
For long-term holders, the best security solution is not necessarily the most expensive hardware, but rather a key management system that is simple enough, thoroughly isolated, and free of unnecessary operations.US September CPI core inflation exceeded expectations, implying that the Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled again, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are highly likely to follow the US stock market's pressure in the short term and experience a pullback.
However, their reactions will slightly diverge. Bitcoin has relatively stronger resistance to decline due to its "digital gold" narrative still supported amid stagflation concerns. If risk aversion demand rises, $BTC may fall first and then stabilize. $ETH is more sensitive to liquidity; the high interest rate environment suppresses its ecosystem valuation and on-chain activity, so the pullback may be larger.
In the medium term, if inflation stickiness continues, the crypto market will enter a period of volatile digestion, lacking trend-driven upward momentum. But if the data does not change the overall direction of rate cuts, the pullback might instead attract dip buyers. Strategically, short-term focus is on BTC support near $81,000 and ETH near $2,400; breaking below these levels calls for caution. If stabilized, one can wait for the Fed's statement before making moves. Core logic: inflation exceeding expectations = short-term bearish, long-term volatile, BTC relatively resistant, ETH more elastic.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Yesterday it was still doubling, today it got hammered
$NEAR 5.03, down about 15%, yesterday it was still doubling, today it got hammered. On Monday it was the strongest asset in the market, up 118% in a month, leading the whole sector higher, but in one day it dropped from 5.6 to 5.0. This is the two sides of a strong stock: when it rises, money chases it; when it falls, profit-taking runs faster than anyone else. Its fundamentals haven't broken, but short-term sentiment is bad. 10月加息概率随着CPI爆表来到了53.7%，空头兄弟们安心睡觉，多头挂好止损，定好闹钟，隔一会起来看看单子还在不在，等不在了就可以安心睡觉了。
接下来的剧本我猜一下大概是明晚PPI概率进一步打上去，制造一波恐慌了，最后10月28号FOMC会议的时候大概维持在50%左右的悬念进会但最后不加息，毕竟马上11月中期选举，面子还是要给的，只不过压力就来到了12月，跟27年的1月份了，美联储这帮人一向都是这个吊性。#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 CPI dropped in less than 2 hours.
The first wave of movement will be pure noise, either up or down.
No one knows which way it will go, so I don't trade this candle.
Zooming out: In the past 4 CPI reports, $BTC has risen at least 7% within a few days after each release.
Plus, Bitcoin is currently at HTF support levels, so I think reaching $90,000 before November is very likely. $ETH long position, 100x leverage, opening price 2578, mark price 2500, floating loss -303%. ZHIPU is even worse, 10x leverage long, already dropped to -190%, liquidation price 42.44, just one step away from the current price. Combined margin of the two positions is less than 44U, lost 110U.
This is the cost of betting on data.
Going full leverage long before data release is like putting your life in the hands of a single candlestick. If ETH drops another 2.5%, this position will be wiped out; if ZHIPU drops another 22%, liquidation occurs. And that early morning spike often happens within seconds after the data release.
The most ironic thing: tonight's core CPI month-over-month is 0.2%, clearly positive news. But the 100x leveraged long position was already swept out during the volatility before the positive news was realized.
Right direction, wrong leverage, still dead.
Three painful lessons:
1. Before data events, reduce leverage to below 5x or simply stay out and wait for results;
2. ETH 100x leverage with liquidation price less than $380 from current price, that’s not trading, that’s buying a lottery ticket;
3. Floating loss of -300% means margin is almost wiped out, don’t add positions, don’t hold on, liquidation won’t reason with you. $ETH Funding rates have "spoken" in advance
Before the CPI release at 8:30 tonight, the rates have already given a signal. BTC shows slight positive values on both platforms (0.0039%, 0.0035%), with neither bulls nor bears daring to take heavy positions—support at 82,500 is repeatedly tested but not broken, and it can't break above 84,000; it is waiting for a signal.
ETH shows divergence: Platform B's current rate turns negative (-0.0043%), shorts start paying and short demand rises; Platform A's cumulative rate remains positive (0.0082%). Half are betting on a rebound, half on continued weakness, behind which is the continuous net outflow from spot ETFs and institutional interest clearly weaker than BTC. The divergence itself is a signal—ETH's directional sense is the weakest and most easily caught off guard by data.
SOL's cumulative rate is 0.0163% but real-time rate has dropped sharply to 0.0033%; those who previously went long are now pulling back, price has fallen from the high point to around 107, and bulls have lost the courage to add positions.
In summary: $BTC is balanced awaiting data, $ETH is in a divergent game, $SOL bulls are retreating.
The bigger picture is tighter: ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million last week, ETH outflow of 542 million; the US dollar index is at an 18-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5.2%. Weak funding rates + capital outflows + macro uncertainty, a triple overlay—the market is not unwilling to move, it dares not move.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Bitcoin miners are about to face a difficulty increase.
Around October 16, the difficulty is expected to rise by 5.68%.
Sounds like not much.
But it has a more direct consequence: with the same hash power, the amount of money mined will decrease by 5.37%.
Here’s how the 5.37% comes about.
There’s something called hashprice, which means how much you can earn per unit of hash power per day.
Right now, that number is 39.77 USD.
When difficulty rises, the same machine mining for the same day will mine fewer coins.
Income will drop first.
The key is this number hasn’t deducted electricity costs yet.
So whether mining is truly profitable depends on two things: how much you earn and how much electricity costs.
Old miners with cheap electricity can still hold on.
New miners with expensive electricity are in danger.
Here’s a calculation:
For machines with efficiency of 20 joules per terahash, at 8 cents per kWh electricity price, electricity costs alone wipe out profits.
In other words, it’s not that mining less causes losses, but that electricity costs exceed mining revenue.
So why is the difficulty suddenly adjusted?
Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks, aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.
Because total hash power is increasing, blocks are found faster, so difficulty must rise accordingly.
That’s also why it’s "expected" now, not "confirmed."
There are still over 300 blocks before the adjustment; during this time, price, hash power, and costs may change.
The real watershed isn’t difficulty, it’s electricity price.
Miners with cheap electricity are expanding their machines.
Miners with expensive electricity are already shutting down.The US stock market opened on October 14 with all three major indexes opening lower. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P dropped 0.48%, and the Nasdaq was the worst, down 0.65%.
The reason is simple: the recent CPI data was too strong, with inflation higher than expected. The market is now starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. US Treasury yields surged directly to 5.26%, the dollar is also rising, and gold has fallen below 4100. Money has become more expensive, so stocks naturally fall; the logic is that straightforward.
For Bitcoin, with the US stock market opening in the red, the crypto market is unlikely to independently turn green in the short term. The 827 threshold has already been broken, and now it depends on how the US stock market performs in the first half hour after opening—
If the Nasdaq continues to widen its losses, Bitcoin is very likely to fail to hold the 82000-81500 range, and the next support to watch is 80000. If the Nasdaq opens lower but can pull back, and US Treasury yields fall back from 5.26%, Bitcoin will have a chance to fake a breakout and rebound to 82800-83400. When US stocks fall, Bitcoin is unlikely to stand alone.
$BTC $ETH #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations $BTC today will be a highly volatile day.
Obviously, due to CPI data being higher than expected, risk assets are temporarily being sold off.
Now we see positions being rebuilt, many of which are shorts. Of course, this does not necessarily mean these shorts will be squeezed, but usually, this leads to increased volatility for the rest of the day.
Short squeezes become interesting when reclaiming $83K+, which is roughly the average entry price of these positions.
So please keep a close eye on that area. Big Brother Maji has injected margin into his $ETH long position again, forcibly pushing the liquidation price down from 2481 to 2395. He's determined to be an "undying bull."
In seven days, he lost 11.27 million USD. Every time there's a crash, you can see Maji taking the hit. The most absurd part is this roller coaster: this morning, his account still had a profit of 5.46 million USD, but now the entire account only has 562,000 left.
However, this level of volatility is routine for him. With this margin top-up, he only gained about a 100 USD buffer. But ETH's current price is hovering around 2500, with 25x leverage and a 13.65K ETH position, so he's still only about 100 USD away from liquidation.
Even worse is the net value shrinkage: as BTC and ETH both dropped more than 5% in a day, the net value of his long positions fell from 12 million yesterday straight down to 2 million now, losing 10 million in just over a day.
Moreover, his HYPE, PUMP, and BTC long positions were all stopped out two hours ago, leaving only this ETH long position. Unfortunately, this one isn't safe either, with a liquidation price of 2471, just 40 dollars away from the current price of 2500. In plain terms, adding margin is like pouring water into a leaking bucket. He's not waiting for a rebound. He's waiting for a "no liquidation" miracle. The more he tops up, the more it shows he refuses to admit defeat; the more he tops up, the closer he actually is to liquidation.Conclusion first: Today $TRUTH surged 38%, with a trading volume of 127 million dollars, and I didn't buy a single cent.
It's not that I don't recognize this coin. It's just that after it rallied for four consecutive days, I kept "waiting and watching" every day, and when it accelerated with volume on the fifth day, I became even more hesitant to act.
Some key numbers: 0.013 plateaued on the platform for six days, then it had four consecutive 4-hour bullish candles, with the last candle's volume being 7 times the average of the previous six. But the funding rate is still negative (-0.025%)—the rally isn't driven by leverage; spot traders are absorbing it. Open interest is only 4.35 million dollars, with a very high daily turnover rate.
The overall market had 159 down and 87 up, median -0.7%, and it completely moved against the trend.
Lesson: On the fourth day when it broke out, my hands itched the most, but discipline said "chasing on the fourth day is catching the tail of the fish." I didn't buy today—not because I judged correctly, but because I couldn't hold back my hands.
For this kind of independently strong coin, do you chase on the fourth day or wait for a pullback? $TRUTHAfter the CPI release
US stock futures: S&P 500 about -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 about -0.5% to -0.6%, Dow about -0.2%
• 10-year US Treasury yield: jumped from about 5.19% to about 5.29%; 2-year rose to about 4.91%
• October rate hike probability: increased from about 22% to about 39% — the core 0.3% weight is mainly reflected here
• Bitcoin retreated to around $82,700 $BAT
Brave's browser gives BAT a real distribution channel most tokens lack: a product people actually use. The idea is to reward attention rather than exploit it. Still, a large user base doesn't guarantee token demand. The question is how much of that usage flows through the token and stays there.Brothers, this is hilarious 😂
Big bro Maji has again added margin to his ETH long position, pushing the liquidation price down to 2395.
It was 2481 before, now 2395. In seven days, he lost 11.27 million USD. Every time there's a crash, you can always see Maji taking a beating.
At 10:05, his account still had an unrealized profit of 5.46 million. Now the whole account only has 562,000 left. Of course, this kind of volatility is routine for him.
He added about 100 USD as a buffer. But ETH's current price is hovering around 2500.
With 25x leverage and 13.65K ETH, he's still 100 dollars away from liquidation.
BTC and ETH dropped more than 5% in a day, and Maji's long position net value fell from 12 million yesterday to 2 million now. Over a day, he lost 10 million.
HYPE, PUMP, and BTC long positions were all closed two hours ago. Now only the ETH long remains. This one isn't safe either, liquidation price at 2471, just 40 dollars from the current price.
Adding margin is basically pouring water into a leaking bucket.
He's not waiting for a rebound. He's waiting for a miracle that won't blow up.
The more he adds, the more it shows he doesn't want to admit defeat. The more he adds, the more it shows—he's actually not any closer to liquidation.
Young people, don't learn from the whales holding positions. You think they're gambling with their lives, but actually, they're gambling on how many bullets they have left.The CPI arrived as scheduled at 8:30, and outside people are shouting $ETH waterfall. To be honest, that's still an exaggeration. As shown in the chart, the 1-minute $ETH at 8:30 didn't even touch the upper edge of the box before dropping, and the lower position was just at the lower edge of the box. Then it consolidated at the lower edge. Actually, looking at the earlier position today, it has been oscillating within this box, but it turned the $ETH 15-30 minute line into a 1-minute line. After all, with the event #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期, the strength is actually moderate.This $APT dish already smells burnt—I can see the short-term RSI scorching at 70.3, black smoke rising from the pan’s edge, just a couple more shakes and it’ll be charred.
It rose 4.41% in 24H, sounding like a freshly cooked crispy crust, but when you lift the lid and look inside: the price is already standing at 120% of the short-term Bollinger Band, meaning it’s not only touching the upper band but has pushed through it by 0.6%, while there’s still a 3.7% gap to the lower band. This setup is a classic “crispy outside, raw inside.” The mid-term Bollinger Band is at 97%, with the upper band just 0.2% overhead, meaning the plate has already hit the serving window with no second layer to stack.
Looking at the long-term RSI, it’s only 54.1, a neutral clear broth that hasn’t kept up with the boiling spicy oil of the short-term. The imbalance between short-term and long-term here is typical of seasoning overpowering the main dish—whoever chases now will choke.
So my approach is: serve it reversed.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.64 (current price +2.0%)
Take Profit 1: 0.59 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: 0.60 (-4.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.70 (+12.1%)
Why set entry 2.0% above? It’s like waiting for the pot to roll back once before scooping, letting the last batch of FOMO buyers push the oil temperature to its peak, then I skim the oil as it cools down. Both take profit targets are within about 5%, the safest zone to separate meat from bone—no greed for the fattiest bite, as that part usually has sinew. The stop loss is set 12.1% above; honestly, this stop is a bit far, giving this dish room for an overdose of extra spicy chili; when I actually cook, I treat this position like "sprinkling a pinch of chili powder," never dumping a whole spoon in. Leverage is the extra spicy chili—just a few drops add aroma, but pouring half a bottle will burn your intestines; it’s not the market that sends you to the hospital, it’s yourself.
As for the ratio: mainstream coins are my main course, $APT is like pepper powder seasoning, and its share in the entire portfolio must never exceed a pinch. Now it’s overcooked short-term but still raw long-term, so this dish shouldn’t be served alone. The 4.41% 24H gain is just the final sprinkle of scallions—looks good but isn’t chewy.
My trading logic is simple: while the plating is still high, serve this dish out; don’t wait for guests to find it cold inside.
The moment the closing price hits the Bollinger upper band and RSI crosses 70, the fire can’t be turned off—I don’t put out the fire, I pull the pot.The scale is huge, but how much profit is actually made?
For $AAVE, I first look at the money lent out.
Users deposit assets, which only provide funds for lending services. Loans generate interest, part of which goes into the protocol treasury according to each asset's reserve factor.
So after deposits increase, we still need to see if anyone borrows, how much they borrow, and how much interest they pay.
For example: if deposits double but borrowing demand doesn't keep up, income may not double.
I look at actual borrowing, interest rates, and treasury income together, then study how much money can be taken out to support the token's value. A large liquidity pool is worth noting, but there may also be a lot of idle funds.
For $FIL, I care more about how much storage fees customers are willing to pay.
Storage providers' income comes from both customer fees and network block rewards; providing services also requires locking FIL as collateral.
Therefore, as more data is stored, we need to check if fees keep pace.
If growth mainly depends on rewards attracting supply rather than customers continuously paying for services, the value is different. I prioritize evidence of renewals and payment amounts.
For $UNI, after seeing impressive trading volume, I then analyze fee distribution.
Trading fees compensate liquidity providers, and in some cases, part of the fees go to the protocol.
So you can't take all trading fees directly to value the token.
Different versions and pools have different fee rules that must be broken down to see how much actually enters token-related mechanisms. Trading volume is the entry point; how the money is finally distributed is the next step.美国劳工统计局（BLS）今日公布9月CPI：整体环比+0.6%、同比+3.7%；核心环比+0.3%、同比+2.6%。 汽油大涨9.1%是主因，核心也略超市场预期（环比约0.2%、同比约2.5%）。 👉🏻短期影响 核心数据偏热，意味着美联储降息预期将进一步降温，甚至不排除维持高利率更久。 风险资产情绪面容易受压，BTC、ETH等可能会先出现回调或震荡加剧。 市场虽已经部分消化了能源驱动的整体上涨，但核心超预期还是会让资金更谨慎。 👉🏻长期影响 如果后续通胀能从能源外溢中有所缓和，美联储仍有空间转向宽松，那对加密中长期仍是支撑。 反之，若核心持续粘性，美元和利率环境偏紧，则会拖累整个风险偏好，加密市场波动将会更大。 👉🏻综合判断 偏短期利空、中长期中性偏多。 此次数据本身不算是爆炸性利空，但核心超预期让“高利率更久”的概率有所上升，短期情绪面承压更明显。 👉🏻新手提示 别一看到CPI数据就盲目追涨杀跌。 加密市场对宏观数据虽然敏感，但真正决定方向的是资金流向和情绪。 先看懂数据再动手，要比追热点更加重要。 👉🏻现在是否适合入场 不建议现在重仓追入，可以等市场消化完数At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the September CPI across the board exceeded expectations: overall year-on-year 3.7%, core year-on-year 2.6%, core month-on-month stuck at 0.3% for two consecutive months. Normally, this is a classic bearish combination: S&P futures turned down, 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 5.29%, 2-year yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, and the probability of a rate hike in October was pushed to around 50%. But $BTC's reaction was: sliding from around 84,000 to about 82,400, only down about 1% in 24 hours. $ETH was the same, at $2,464, down 1.5%, not even touching key levels.
What does this mean? It means the truly “hawkish” part was already fully priced in this morning. I wrote earlier in the morning that the market had preemptively realized the hawkish expectations: continuous ETF outflows, yields taking off early, prices suppressed below 84,000. So after the data release, what the market punished was not the “inflation exceeding expectations” news itself, but rather clearing out the remaining bit of hope. When bad news is priced in without a crash, it is often one of the strongest short-term signals; at least the bears did not dare to launch a second wave at this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. After tonight, the game changes. Before CPI, the market traded on “what the data is,” after CPI, it trades on “what the Fed will do.” Core month-on-month at 0.3% for two consecutive months means inflation stickiness is confirmed, and the October rate hike is back on the table. This is the real situation for $BTC now$XAU Gold at 4090, what are you still hesitating about?
Doubting the bulls just because gold is pulling back? I can only say, when it rallies again, many will complain it's too expensive.
My view has always been clear: bullish on gold in the medium to long term, and short-term pullbacks are actually worth paying attention to.
Gold has been hard currency since ancient times, with global central banks continuously allocating gold, and ETF funds also reflecting market demand for gold allocation. But short-term trends can't be judged solely by safe-haven logic; U.S. inflation, the dollar's movement, and Fed rate expectations remain key factors affecting gold prices.
Currently, gold has fallen back to around $4090. Volatility from data releases does increase short-term uncertainty. But if support holds after the pullback and buying returns, this could actually offer a better opportunity to position.
I like this kind of trending market—no need for daily surges, as long as the big picture doesn't change, just patiently wait for opportunities. In terms of trading, consider scaling in gradually, don't blindly chase highs, and don't easily turn bearish just because of a temporary pullback.
As for $5000, I still hold that expectation. But a target is a target, and trading is trading—don't treat optimism as a guaranteed rise, nor use long-term logic as a reason to hold through short-term dips. Keep your position steady to wait for the trend to truly unfold. #SaudiAramcoHeadquartersAttacked, crude oil supply under watch Put/call skew flattens: institutions aren't chasing upside, they're buying $78K–$80K puts as insurance. Spot holds, hedges on. That's a range market with a tail — not a blow-off top.$FIL 这两天要重点关注了！马上减半周期到来，虽然预期已经反映到了盘面上，这俩月也已经翻倍，但减半开始之后可能仍然会有剧烈的波动，甚至可能会出现一次大砸盘。在我看来，产出减半和团队禁售当然是长期的利好，因为从减半开始，市场的抛压会比现在同比减少75%，虽然买盘跟卖盘仍会拉扯，但逻辑已经从之前的卖压大于买盘变成了旗鼓相当或者买盘可能在某个利好之后全面盖过卖压！我现在真正担心的是之前成本几十甚至上百的现货持有者会趁着这个利好出货，这对现在的盘面肯定是不利的，但这都是短期的，我个人是打算长期做多$FIL 的，所以短期的波动影响不了我！Compared to the previous pre-market data, the decline in individual storage stocks has slightly narrowed. SK Hynix and SanDisk (SNDK) have slowed their downward trend, Micron is basically flat, and panic selling in the early session has eased. However, AI computing power leaders collectively turned from red to green, with Nvidia and Meta weakening, and only a few stocks closing higher. The buying momentum in the tech sector has clearly weakened.
The Asia-Pacific market's storage sector saw a brief recovery, but overseas storage stocks failed to turn positive, only narrowing their losses. This is not a trend reversal, but merely a stop-loss battle after overselling.
Transmitted to the A-shares, the slowdown in the decline of external storage can alleviate the pressure of a sharp drop in the storage sector tomorrow. However, major companies remain generally weak, making a strong rebound difficult. Any rally is likely to face profit-taking. Meanwhile, the weakness of Nvidia and Meta suppresses sentiment in the domestic computing power and media sectors, and Lumentum's decline also drags down expectations for optical modules.
Regarding $SNDK, it is currently just a brief pause in the middle of a decline, with insufficient bullish strength. Rebounds can be used as opportunities to position short orders, maintaining a weak outlook in the short term.
⚠️ Market views shared only, do not constitute investment advice The moment I woke up, the string of numbers on my phone screen seemed to have a corner quietly erased by someone✨ Floating profit dropped by three hundred thousand US dollars, how would you handle the direction in your hands? Last night's market was actually very representative. ETH was repeatedly tugged above 2500; many took it as a signal that "finally it's time to go long," but what I saw was a repeatedly tested distribution range. The point in this trader's record that struck me the most was not how much floating profit he lost, but that he clearly said: the short position at BTC 83491 was the one with the highest floating profit and is still held now. The amount of information behind this sentence is much greater than it appears on the surface. First, look at the facts. ETH 2500 was repeatedly mentioned as a short point, and the price did indeed hover around this level. BTC had a rebound near 83491 but overall did not break out of the resistance zone. Altcoins fell more directly, with both short positions hitting full profit margins. ZEC was singled out for observation due to its high volatility. Putting these details together, it looks more like a trend entering a divergence phase rather than a clean start or continuation. What is the market trading? I think the core is event repricing. With CPI about to be released, Hamarck again signaling further rate hikes, semiconductor sector sell-offs, and South Korea's KOSPI dropping over 6%, these external signals combined are suppressing risk appetite. The rebounds in BTC and ETH seem more like short covering and short-term sentiment repair rather than new funds willing to continuously take over at this level. In other words SNDK at $1420, do you dare to bottom-fish?
It dropped from 2354 to 1400, everyone is yelling "AI storage bubble burst," but just now, Binance perpetual bounced from 1401 back to 1420, and the funding rate is still positive—so is this a bear trap by the manipulators using bad news to shake out weak hands, or is the AI storage bubble really about to burst?
First, look at the surface: it's bad, really bad.
Retracted 40% from the June ATH of 2354, with a continuous downtrend recently, hitting a low of 1401 on October 13. Broadcom CEO's comment crashed the entire semiconductor sector, China's CXMT progress scared the market, and worries about flash memory price volatility are everywhere.
But look at the chart—1400 hasn't been broken, the underlying stock closed yesterday pulling back to the 1480s. Pre-market today is back to 1420-1440. The candlesticks tell you: 1400 is a tested iron bottom recently, volume hasn't spiked extremely during the drop, and it's in the oversold zone. All signals shout one thing: this is an emotion-driven correction, not a fundamental collapse.
First thing: Did the market really panic over one sentence from Broadcom?
Broadcom's CEO said AI financing has constraints, the entire SOX sector pulled back, and SNDK got hit along with it.
Sounds scary? But think about it—has AI capital expenditure really stopped? Cloud providers and AI labs are still aggressively building data centers, NAND/SSD is the most critical support after GPUs. Multiple institutions maintain expectations of tight NAND supply-demand balance in 2026, supporting prices.
What’s a false sell-off? This is it. Sector sentiment dragged good companies down. Retail investors panic that the "AI bubble burst," while smart money quietly buys near 1400.
Second thing: China's CXMT competition? A long-term shadow, short-term noise.
CXMT's progress indeed triggered short-term panic over high-end storage competition. But look at SNDK's fundamentals:
Pure NAND flash player, vertically integrated with Kioxia
TTM revenue about $20 billion, EPS about 74, volume and price both rising
Current TTM PE about 20, forward PE only around 7
Market cap 210 billion, analyst consensus "buy," average target price 2173
Current price 1420, target 2173, a 50% gap in between. You tell me this is a bubble?
Compare: Nvidia's forward PE? 30x. SNDK only 7x. This is not a bubble, this is a discount.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
Retracted 40% from ATH, YTD still up over 500%, 1-year up over 1000%. This is a typical normal correction after a surge, not a trend reversal.
Support: 1400 (iron bottom, multiple tests) → 1350 (extreme case)
Resistance: 1480-1500 (previous close + round number) → 1600 → 1700
Catalyst: Earnings report after market on October 29, market expects EPS about 46
Daily/4H weak, short-term moving averages suppressing, but after a large pullback, it has entered oversold territory, a technical rebound is imminent. Funding rate positive (8-hour 0.02-0.04%), indicating bulls still willing to hold positions.
But remember—perpetual contracts have leverage, volatility will be amplified. If 1400 breaks down with volume, next target is 1350 or even lower.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
AI data center NAND demand continues to explode
Analyst average target 2173, 50% upside
Forward PE only 7x, valuation not expensive
1400 iron bottom tested multiple times, oversold rebound imminent
October 29 earnings catalyst approaching
On the other side:
Broadcom comments triggered concerns over AI spending sustainability
China CXMT long-term competition shadow
Semiconductor sector overall technical correction
Short-term moving averages bearish, fragile sentiment
If 1400 breaks, may trigger bull stop-loss
Key level 1420, only $20 above the death line 1400.
Resistance above: 1480-1500 → 1600 → 1700 → analyst target 2173
Support below: 1400 (iron bottom) → 1350 → 1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Light long positions near 1400 if stable (watch for volume rebound or lower wick), stop loss 1350-1380. First target 1480-1520, then reduce or switch to defense. If breaks 1400 and can't recover, wait or lightly short. Funding rate positive, suitable for short swings, don't hold stubbornly.
Mid-term players:
Build long positions in batches between 1400-1450, target 1600-1800 (expectation heating before earnings). Control position before earnings or hedge with options/small leverage. Buying on dips better than chasing highs, much better cost-performance than June highs.
Risk control rules:
High Beta + perpetual, single trade risk no more than 1-2% of account
Total position not too heavy, keep enough cash
Watch underlying stock intraday moves, NAND price data, MU and other storage stock correlations
If earnings miss or NAND guidance weak, may see another sell-off
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023—
After a surge, a 40% correction, everyone shouts "bubble burst," but earnings come out and it doubles.
You fear the correction, others fear missing the ride.
If you don't dare to buy at 1400, will you chase at 2000 after earnings?
$BTC $NVDA $SNDK $BTC data first dropped nearly a thousand dollars, now hovering around 82,700. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US September CPI will be released: overall year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, basically within expectations—September's gasoline surge, everyone knows the headline looks bad. The real pain is in the core: month-on-month 0.3%, exactly the same as August, while the market expected it to drop to 0.2%; year-on-year also rose to 2.6%.
Overall, the focus is on oil prices, the core is about stickiness. The core hasn't come down for two consecutive months, indicating that the September rate hike was just the beginning—before the Fed meeting on October 27-28, this is the last piece of the puzzle. Before tonight, the market was betting "no move in October, hike in December," but now the October card is back on the table. The 10-year US Treasury yield instantly jumped to 5.31%, which is the real thing crushing risk assets: it's not the CPI itself falling, but the repricing of rate hike expectations.
In plain terms: $BTC has been repeatedly tested between 81,000–82,500 these past two days; tonight is the touchstone. Holding this level means the bears' strength on data night ends here, and bulls can still look for a rebound window around 84,000; breaking it will head toward 80,000, and the weak will be weeded out first—$ETH fell 0.95% in 24h, underperforming BTC's 0.59%, altcoins will suffer even more than BTC. Before tomorrow's PPI release, this market is not for bottom hunters; there is plenty of room on the right side.Today, my watchlist is mostly green, but the whales are playing three completely different games:
$BTC is real spot trading with genuine hands-on exchange. Coinbase premium has turned negative, institutions are selling at a discount; yet on-chain over 30,000 coins have been withdrawn this month, whales are quietly accumulating again. This kind of tug-of-war often signals a market shift; once the chips are exchanged, a new direction emerges.
HYPE is purely a contract battlefield, almost no one touches the spot market. On Hyperliquid, short positions net $225 million, with an account shorting since last September still holding despite a $23 million unrealized loss. No matter how much it surges, it’s just hot air without spot support; it can crash anytime.
OKB has fundamentals and a story, but sentiment hasn’t picked up, RSI is only 41, so it’s just following the market’s slow decline. However, around 125 there is capital absorbing, indicating big players are betting on its transition from a platform token to a stock settlement infrastructure. Whales are most likely either holding long-term or gambling on the next wave of sentiment-driven speculation.
Three scripts, three rhythms, don’t use the same position strategy for all.
#VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed CPI exceeds expectations, core inflation does not cool down: Will the October rate hike be brought forward?
The data is out and leans hawkish. US September CPI: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-on-month 0.6% as expected; but the Fed's main focus, core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), core year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%)—both core figures exceed expectations, no cooling observed.
Market reacted quickly: 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, consensus on no rate hike in October is loosening, bets on another hike in December continue to rise. BTC dropped about $1,000 in response, now around $82,400. Oil prices are the main driver pushing the overall figure up (gasoline +9.1% monthly), but the lack of cooling in core inflation is the real headache for the Fed.
Next to watch is the FOMC on October 27-28. Core month-on-month has been 0.3% for two consecutive months, leaving less room to "wait and see." For the crypto space, a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields are direct headwinds—don’t rush to bottom-fish tonight, let the dust settle a bit.
Risk warning: Macro data fluctuates sharply before and after release, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCBerkshire adds $330 million, Bending Spoons surges 32% pre-market, what's the story behind this "App Harvester" favored by Buffett?
Market overview: OKX x BSP pre-market quote at 47.72, up 25% in 24h, surged past 49.51 then pulled back; trading volume 14.23 million USDT, turnover rate only 0.13%, low-liquidity pre-market token, a few million U can easily push out a big bullish candle.
Strong catalyst: Berkshire added $330 million investment, private placement of 10 million shares at $33 each; combined with $600 million invested at IPO, Buffett has bet nearly $1 billion in two rounds. Bending Spoons is an Italian app group, owning Evernote and Meetup, also acquiring Miro and Airtable, Q2 earnings per share $0.46 beating expectations, revenue $704 million exceeding forecasts.
But to pour cold water: P/E ratio 266, RSI 99, pre-market surge to 49.51 has overextended; placement price $33 is Buffett's cost line, current price 47.72 is 40% above major investors' cost — big names backing it is a real signal, but chasing high premiums requires caution. Pre-market low liquidity means volatility will only increase after official open.
Watch the psychological anchor at the $33 placement price, if it breaks the 46.16 support; at US market open, see if BSP can hold steady, only then can a second wave be discussed. DYOR, not investment advice.
#BSP #Berkshire #USStockTokenUS September CPI broadly exceeded expectations, posing a macro downside risk to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Macro logic: Inflation has risen for three consecutive months, core inflation remains stubborn, the Fed's rate cut expectations are forced to be delayed, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress crypto asset valuations. Before the data release, BTC was fluctuating around $83,000, ETH was weaker, having dropped nearly 10% over the past week.
BTC key levels: There is strong support from the 400-day moving average around $81,000 below, and $77,000 to $79,000 is the next major absorption zone. $83,300 above is an important watershed; holding above it could lead to a challenge of $85,000 to $86,500. If core CPI exceeds expectations, BTC may first test below $80,000 or even $81,000.
ETH key levels: $2,500 is the lifeline—both a round number and the resistance level before the September breakout; a daily close below it would damage the upward structure. Strong support below is near $2,400, which has successfully reversed price multiple times.
Strategy advice: Slippage is very high at the moment of data release; avoid one-sided bets. It is advisable to wait for the data to settle, observe the high point of the first 15-minute candle as a trend confirmation signal, then look for entry opportunities. $ETH $BTC Circulating supply is only 23.3%: Behind HYPE's $78.1 billion valuation, how many people haven't entered yet?
Looking at $HYPE's valuation, just looking at market cap can be misleading. Current data: circulating supply is about 222.46 million tokens, total supply about 955.31 million tokens, with a circulation ratio of only 23.3%. Current market cap is about $18.21 billion, fully diluted valuation about $78.19 billion — the latter is 4.29 times the former. To put it simply: what's trading on the market now is just a fraction; more than three-quarters of the tokens haven't been released yet. A low circulation ratio has two sides. On the positive side, the float is light, so when demand comes, price elasticity is high; on the negative side, future supply release is a looming variable, and when those tokens come out, the market needs enough support to absorb them.
So I don't simply take low circulation as a bullish sign. What really matters are two things: whether demand growth can outpace supply release, and whether buybacks and burns can absorb some of the pressure. Platform revenue is there, which is the confidence on the demand side. Valuation is a race between demand and supply, and I’m betting on demand. Diamond hands.$BTC's wick timing is very interesting: 20:30 Beijing time, which converts to 08:30 Eastern Time, exactly one hour before the US stock market opens.
Characteristics of this time period: Asian session is ending, European session is quiet, US stock market hasn't opened yet, order books are thinnest, and big money loves to sweep losses during this window.
The wick immediately retracting indicates what? It means there is real buying interest waiting at 82,700 below; it's not that no one is taking the orders, but someone is waiting to take them.
Technical aspect: BTC surged to 84,147 yesterday but failed to hold; bullish momentum is weakening and a pullback to confirm support is needed. This wick is that pullback, just a bit more violent.
Conclusion: 82,700 is a valid support level, expect continued range-bound oscillation. ETH leading the decline is a warning; watch for ETH to stabilize.$KORU
我目前明确看空，未来到周五美股收盘，优先看13.58，跌破后看13.12，极端行情看12.70。
今天美国CPI超预期，KORU从14.40附近快速砸到13.64，这波下跌我认为不是简单洗盘，而是市场开始重新定价。
其实韩国市场早就给出信号了。KOSPI早盘涨超2%，最后反而收跌，外资单日卖出约1.18万亿韩元。ASML给出的长期前景不错，但三星、海力士依然没有持续买盘。
我认为现在不是AI基本面出了问题，而是市场之前把未来几年的增长预期打得太满了。利好兑现没人接，通胀又超预期，资金自然开始撤退。
接下来我主要看两条路径：
主路径：13.73 → 13.58 → 13.12 → 12.70。
次路径：13.73 → 14.00–14.25 → 13.58 → 13.12。
周四TSMC财报是关键变量，但我暂时不认为一份好财报就能扭转资金撤退的趋势。
14.90上方是我重新评估空头逻辑的位置
目前13.73附近我不会追空，更倾向等反抽给机会。我看的是韩国半导体资金撤退后的第二波下跌，而不是单纯赌一根阴线。前几天买了 $AGPU ，刚刚看到agpu跟纳斯达克上市公司Penguin官宣合作了，在这之前公布上了币安的bstocks，其实关注得更早，但是没上币安之前不方便买，上了之后还观望了一段时间，其实是在等更好的位置入手，没等到就直接买了，所以现在被套了
给自己充值点信仰，值得拿的2点
第一个是公司25年业务改成AI基础设施/GPU算力服务了，符合现在趋势
第二个是这个市值很低，虽然市值低确实不能作为买一个票的原因，但是这个不仅是市值低，而是转型不久就有34亿的合同订单。不过这个合同是未来很多年待交付和确认的收入，今天官宣的跟 $PENG 合作就是可以增加把这些订单变成营收的确定性，因为agpu负责的是订单从哪里来，而 $PENG 恰恰是负责的后续的交付和运营，后续能一起把订单变成营收就很强了。想了想，当前市场持续下跌的原因不是单一事件，而是三个层面的力量叠加在一起。
宏观层面，美联储释放了鹰派信号。 9月会议纪要显示，多数官员支持继续加息，市场原本期待的“加息结束”落空。美债收益率随之飙升，资金从比特币、以太坊这类不产生利息的高风险资产中撤出。
资金层面，ETF和机构在持续撤退。 以太坊现货ETF连续9个交易日净流出，10月以来累计流出超6.3亿美元。更关键的是，BitMine已明确将ETH持仓上限锁定在总供应量的5%，目前持有4.9%，距上限仅差约7.7万枚，按当前节奏约一个月内就会停止买入。
结构层面，多头踩踏。 比特币在8.3-8.7区间反复受阻，下方堆积了大量杠杆多单。价格跌破关键支撑后，这些多单被强制平仓，形成“下跌→爆仓→进一步下跌”的连环踩踏。10月12日单日爆仓超7.7亿美元，多头占近90%。
而我所持仓的SNDK和ZHIPU，正好处在这个多头拥挤的结构里。我也只是沦为时代的炮灰罢了。
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 冷静下来晚评｜4赛道轮动·链上巨鲸｜10/14｜🟡 观望 CPI落地偏热，巨鲸持仓仍稳但价格承压。
真实链上（偏多）：巨鲸303万BTC新高、72h加1.5万($1.2B)、Bull Score 80、ETF转正约2300BTC。
CPI实际：年率3.7%(预3.6)/核心月率0.3%(预0.2)/核心年率2.6%(预2.5)——核心三项全超，汽油推高但核心已扩散。
市场反应：
BTC 84k没守住，83.8k跌至82.8k(-1000)，现$82,774；
10Y升9bp至5.31%；
纳指期货-0.65%。
逻辑：多头押"坏消息已计价"被打脸，买预期卖事实+核心过热=双杀。
纪律：仍守82k上方未触发减仓；
扳机年线$78,599/复绿$85,000。
CPI偏热加息预期升，短期偏空但巨鲸未跑。
$BTC #链上巨鲸 #4赛道轮动 #CPI
仅信息分享，不构成投资建议。 9月CPI详细数据解读，实际数据情况要比目前表面数据可能会更加鹰派！ 当我拆解了BLS 9月CPI数据后，发现数据要比刚才表面数据可能会更加鹰派，核心不是名义CPI 3.7% 而是通过能源、核心商品与核心服务三个层面来判断： 1，能源是9月名义通胀数据保障的核心因素 2，核心商品重新出现价格压力，能源带来的通胀传导问题已经初步显现 3，核心服务业并未降温，反而从0.3%加速到0.4%，这是对Fed最不友好的部分 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 所以，这份数据意味着9月CPI并非只是能源一次性冲击导致的上涨这么简单，提出能源一次冲击导致名义通胀上涨后，核心商品与核心服务出现上涨，属于能源二次传导 名义通胀月率0.6%其实并不可怕，因为数据中证明了是来自能源价格上涨带来的冲击，属于阶段性或者一次性冲击，市场或者Fed最但系的是通胀二次传统与扩散，而核心商品与核心服务就证明了这个担心，同时核心服务中住房通胀依旧是核心“顽疾” 9月CPI数据公布后，CME 10月与12月加息概率并未有太大变化，但是时隔半小时后的当下，这份详细数据已经充分发酵， 目前10月加息概率从21%我几乎完全不会担心我这单$BTC 的多单会亏钱！首先行情确实按我说的一样先往下砸了大概1500点，我也顺势补仓了！
其次是我说了$BTC 在数据公布的时候，一般数据不重要，数据是用来配合清扫流动性的，那先往下杀，我就会坚定做多！
其次是金十➕CPI这些乱七八糟一堆咨询猛猛在推利空消息，比如国债收益率上去，押注加息啥的！在我看来，都没有用，盘面才有用！
事实是这么多利空的消息，没让$BTC 跌破8w2，这就说明市场不想让它下去！很简单，就看看我的判断对不对！
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Draft (CPI reaction, data as of tonight 20:30)
September CPI came in hot across the board: headline 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% expected), core 2.6% (vs 2.5%), and core MoM stuck at 0.3% instead of cooling to 0.2%. The pass-through question got answered — energy (+20.4% YoY, gasoline +9.1% MoM) is spilling into core, and the December hike trade just got its best argument. BTC is holding $82–83k for now, but the setup changed: the market no longer has to imagine the hike case, it just got the receipt.$BNB 短线看弱，737.22 已经贴着今天的最低点。 这一天杠杆基本没动。多空两边清算都只有几万美元，放在 4.1 亿持仓里几乎看不见。多头没被挤出，空头也没被逼着回补。价格是慢慢磨下来的，没有爆仓推动，也看不出有新杠杆进来抢反弹，场里是旧仓位在耗。费率贴着零，只当背景。 图上标的高点抬高，要等前低失守才算破。现在价格离前低只差一点，头上又压着空头排列的均线，这个上升结构撑不了多久。我判断前低会被跌穿，接着走出新低。 翻多条件：重新站上 747.5 并站稳，等于今天的高点被收回，看弱就作废。超出预期3.7%直接增加十月份加息的不确定性，黄金暴跌国债新高，有机会见到7开头的btc$ETH 果真爆冷！巨鲸肯定早有内幕，不然怎么会提起一小时保本清仓多单！！
9月CPI公布，同比3.7%超预期（预期3.6%），核心更狠同比2.6%（预期2.5%）、环比0.3%（预期0.2%）。
这其中汽油暴涨是主因，但核心也在加速，说明压力不止能源。
CPI发布后，10年美债冲到5.3%附近、2年期大涨，10月加息概率从22%翻倍到近40%，风险资产直接挨打。
$BTC 短期承压明显，已回落到82.6K附近。
美债收益率上行+加息预期升温，对加密和成长股都是逆风，先看82k一线能否守住。
跌破则可能进一步测试80k甚至更低。
黄金$XAU 、纳指同样面临估值压力。
中期看，若能源继续高企、核心不降温，美联储年底加息路径更硬，风险资产震荡偏弱。
但若后续PCE或就业转软，市场可能重新定价“只加一次”。
关键看下周数据和油价走势，别急着抄底，先观望。#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $TRUTH 涨幅榜第二的TRUTH 千万别着急空，这个币没有现货的。没现货的容易出妖币，如曾经的river lab rave beat 高点比低点能涨50倍，100倍。如果一直爆空单，利用免费燃料，就能不断火箭上升。极端情况下，我怀疑它能从最低点0.008几暴涨翻到五到七倍0.047～0.055， 非要空的话:请轻仓，低杠杆，多预留保证金，起步点位至少要在0.0312以上，轻仓，轻仓，轻仓，小试水 个人愚见。不构成任何建议。单纯只是对我自己的分析做假想，待事实验证。美国以太坊现货ETF在10月13日净流入2,480万美元，结束此前连续十个交易日净流出。Farside的完整日表显示，前一天净流出8,540万美元，这次资金方向终于转正。
回流并不均匀：灰度代码为ETH的基金流入1,670万美元，富达FETH流入810万美元，其余表列基金均为零。这里的ETH是基金代码，不是另加了一笔链上转账。
对以太坊市场，变化是这批基金的净申购重新超过净赎回，基金渠道的持续撤资暂时停了一天。申赎会影响基金持有的资产规模，但这些流量不是交易所里当日所有ETH的买卖量，也不能直接换算成同一时刻的现货买单。
此前十个交易日合计流出约7.83亿美元，这一天回流只抵回约3.2%。接下来要看净流入能否连续、是否扩展到更多基金，才好判断撤资压力是否持续缓解。
来源及配图：Farside美国以太坊ETF日表，金额为美元；北京时间10/14 21:00后核验。10/14一行仍未报齐，不按零流量解读。$ETH 亏麻了！这次CPI最狠的地方不在整体数字超预期，而在核心通胀同步走高。市场之前一直拿能源涨价当挡箭牌，觉得核心没事。现在这个数据一出，这个借口彻底被撕了。通胀不是只被油价推着，是全面性压力还在，降息预期直接被扇了一巴掌。
先看$BTC 大饼。数据一出，降息预期被打脸，大饼短线承压是肯定的。但别慌，机构底仓还在，链上长期持有者也在接。如果恐慌盘砸出来，反而可能给巨鲸捡便宜的机会。底仓拿稳，短线别急着抄底。
再看$ETH 以太。ETF资金本来就一直在跑，大饼一软它跌得比谁都快。短期别指望它独立走强，跟着大盘承受抛压。
最后看$XAUT 黄金。核心通胀超预期对黄金其实是双刃剑，短期被加息预期压着，美元走强它难受。但通胀压不住这件事本身，恰恰证明了黄金的长期逻辑没坏。配置盘还在进，央行还在买，跌下去有人接。
兄弟们，这数据就是来杀预期的。现货底仓拿稳，短线杠杆全卸，等这波恐慌情绪释放完再说。#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 @OKX星球 兄弟们，9月CPI终于来了！大饼$BTC 这下又偏空了。下午预热时，我还判断整体CPI可能被能源推高，但核心环比可能降到0.2%。结果整体同比3.7%，高于部分市场预期的3.6%；核心同比2.6%、环比0.3%，也都超过预期。能源这条线看对了，但核心确实比我预想的更顽固，这次核心判断偏乐观了。9月汽油价格环比又涨了9.1%，能源成本把整体通胀往上推。这就不只是油价上涨的问题了。剔除食品和能源后，核心环比依然维持0.3%，住房成本也涨了0.4%。就业已经有所降温，物价却没按市场期待降下来，美联储也更难放心停止加息。核心CPI超预期可能让市场重新上调后续加息概率，美元和美债收益率持续走强，对大饼来说显然不是好消息。所以目前我的判断是短线偏空，更倾向先看弱势震荡，但具体还得看看市场怎么消化。 数据公布后，大饼一度回到82700附近，接下来先看能不能重新站回83000。如果持续承压，我会关注此前80400附近的低点。