Orbit Post Sitemap
A bank achieved in one week what many public blockchains haven't accomplished in three years. HSBC's Hong Kong Dollar stablecoin RedCoin launched for one week, with 50,000 users.
Let's break down the value behind this number. RedCoin didn't start from zero users; it was launched directly to over 3.3 million PayMe users for merchant payments and wallet top-ups. HSBC didn't first educate the market but replaced the settlement layer for people already using the app.
What truly determines a stablecoin's survival is distribution. Users won't download a new app, memorize new seed phrases, or get phished again just for a stablecoin. Banks hold the most basic yet strongest assets: payroll cards and daily payment entry points.
HSBC's next step is even more worth watching. It plans to offer services through HSBC HK Mobile Banking, supporting subscriptions to tokenized money market funds. The stablecoin here is not the end but the entry point—money comes in first, then is directed into tokenized money market funds. This is the path to moving the entire deposit business onto the blockchain.
For $USDT and $USDC, this is marginal erosion, not direct replacement. The Hong Kong dollar pool is small, but local banks have inherent advantages. Competition will shift from "who can issue" to "whose customers get tokenized first."
HSBC also plans to establish a global AI and emerging technology research institute in the northern metropolitan area of Hong Kong, operational by early 2027. When deposits themselves can become on-chain assets, the opponents banks need to guard against may no longer be exchanges.The token issuance economics have completely collapsed, no recovery possible. Among the 24 million token issuances accumulated on Pump.fun, only 312 had a market cap exceeding $100,000, a success rate as low as 0.0013%🤡. Frankly, the current model is unlimited supply with limited demand, and this 0.0013% figure itself destroys the narrative of the "next 100x coin".
However, one thing to note is that although $PUMP is declining, the platform's revenue has not dropped; it has already distributed $30 million in rewards. You see, the token issuers remain, but the buyers have left, and the ones making money are always the ones selling the shovels.BTC has bounced back to 78,000, but there is a risk line buried less than 1% below ETH's current level. The price has returned, but the money hasn't fully come back.
$BTC is around 78,000. Related products saw a net outflow of 643 million in one day, but top products had a counter-trend inflow of 177 million, indicating money is concentrating at one point. 77,000 is the defense line, and 78,000 is the position just reclaimed.
$ETH is around 2,270. If the daily chart effectively breaks below 2,251, a long position risk exposure of about 927 million USD will be triggered; the next risk line is a certain whale's 2,122–2,129 range. Products have had outflows for 23 consecutive days, while staking remains locked.
$SOL is around 94. Related products had a record net outflow of 71.47 million USD last week, with BSOL alone accounting for 45.81 million. BTC has strong buy-side depth, ETH has staking hedges, but SOL lacks equivalent support.
In short: BTC's money is concentrating at the top, ETH has a risk line beneath it, and SOL just set a new outflow record. Waiting for the November 6th non-farm payrolls to provide a reason to ease.
For record-keeping of the market only, not investment advice.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 BTC 77K Standby: The Election Is Not Fireworks, It's a Volatility Fuse 🎇
Market Characterization
78K acts like a rebound gate; failure to break through still favors a bearish short-covering play; holding above the previous low at 76.2K counts only as a local bottom 🧱. Leverage has cooled down: funding rates near zero, open interest declining, retail traders cutting each other off, whales watching the show 🐋. 11 billion options Gamma concentrated between 75K–82K, sellers absent, flash spikes may become the norm ⚡.
Election Variables
Republicans hold both chambers: pro-crypto continuation, year-end median target at 90.8K, post-election sentiment recovery + ETF inflows favor bullishness ✅.
Split Congress: regulatory deadlock, median target 84.1K, short-term volatility, slow bull market after negative factors are fully priced in 🐂.
Democrats control both chambers: strict regulatory resurgence, CLARITY stalled, tax/stablecoin tightening, median target 76.45K, post-election initial drop then watch for support ⚠️.
Historical Experience: volatility is suppressed before uncertainty clears; once results settle and Gamma supply normalizes, the direction is chosen. If 10Y US Treasury yields peak and fall, it's a medium-term positive for risk assets 📉➡️📈.
Key Levels
Support: 76,500 / 75,900 / 75,500
Resistance: 78,500 → 80,000 (no reversal talk unless broken)
Strategy
Currently, 77K looks more like a pre-election liquidity vacuum, not a “election gift” 🎈. Stay light and probe until 78K breaks; exit if 76.2K fails; consider adding positions after election results and volume increase 🚦.20261102 17:26:00 || Strange market situation reappears! Wall Street institutions continue to withdraw funds, yet the market rebounds against the trend! The market recovery is entirely driven by sentiment, with serious doubts about real capital support!
The biggest recent market contradiction: BTC and ETH markets have slightly recovered, but institutional funds show no sign of returning, with ETFs continuously flowing out. Meanwhile, CELO shows an extreme divergence trend, with on-chain revenue continuously increasing, but the coin price remains weak and volatile.
In-depth analysis of the latest network-wide capital data:
$BTC: Quoted at 78197, 24h increase of 0.43%. Single-day large ETF net outflow of 643 million USD, offsetting the cumulative inflow of 441 million USD over the previous four days, indicating overall institutional withdrawal. 78000 is only a short-term weak support; whether it holds determines the authenticity of this rebound.
$ETH: Quoted at 2286, 24h increase of 0.92%. Strong resistance to decline with a slight rebound, but spot ETFs have continuously flowed out for five consecutive days, with a cumulative escape of 431 million USD. Market strength with capital outflow; breaking the 2300 level is necessary for a true recovery.
$CELO: Quoted at 0.07384, 24h decrease of 1.10%. Fundamentals remain strong, with on-chain fees in October generating 129,600 USD, and 1.22 million CELO added to the community fund reserve. Real on-chain revenue continues, but secondary market selling pressure remains stubborn, and positive news fails to translate into market gains. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 【Moderna Q3 Revenue Expected Near $900 Million, But the Real Comeback Lies in Cancer Vaccines】
$MRNA will release its Q3 earnings on November 6, with the market expecting revenue around $890 million and a loss of about $1.1 per share. This quarter's revenue shows a significant sequential rebound, mainly depending on whether the autumn and winter respiratory vaccine sales can meet seasonal demand; however, year-over-year revenue is still expected to decline by about 12%, indicating that the COVID-19 vaccine business has not truly returned to growth.
In Q2, the company reported a net loss of $782 million. Management expects the year-end cash balance to remain between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion, so short-term cash flow pressure is not yet critical. What truly refocused the market's attention on Moderna was the Phase 3 melanoma cancer vaccine data announced in October: combined with Merck's Keytruda, it reduced patients' risk of relapse or death by 42%. This gives Moderna the opportunity to transition from a single vaccine company to a larger mRNA drug platform.
In this earnings report, vaccine sales determine the short-term performance baseline, cash burn dictates how long the company can sustain itself, and cancer vaccines decide whether there is a second growth curve for valuation. The short-term focus is on whether revenue and full-year guidance can be met; the long-term real bet is whether cancer vaccines can move from clinical breakthroughs to commercialization.
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 🚀 Falcon Finance ($FF) – Worth Watching!
🔹 $1.665B TVL on Ethereum.
🔹 TVL grew 15.67% in 30 days.
🔹 WLF made a reported $10M strategic investment in July 2026.
🔹 Building universal collateralization infrastructure and USDf.
📊 Strong fundamentals and growing on-chain activity make $FF interesting to watch.
Is $FF on your watchlist?
#FalconFinance #DeFi #CryptoTreasuryDivides 5. There is also a positive side! BTC's recent low points have risen from 76326 to 77114, then to 77517 USD. Each pullback is higher than the last, indicating that there are indeed buyers at the bottom.
6. Now it has reached around 78600, and the next hurdle is 78800. Whether it can hold steady with volume will determine if there is a chance to continue pushing to 80000.
7. Conversely, if 77500 is lost again, the low point at 76326 may have to be tested once more.
What I think is truly worth pondering today is: the price is rising, contract leverage is decreasing, yet ETFs are still seeing outflows.
This suggests the market may be washing out a batch of leverage, but the real big money has not yet given a clear answer.
Don't rush to call a bull market, nor assume a rebound is fake just because it bounces. Next, let's see if 80,000 USD can be taken down! Bitcoin has risen to $78,831! But with today's surge, I noticed something off with the funds!
On November 2nd, BTC rose 1.3%, seemingly about to break $80,000 again. But after reviewing the fund data, I actually think we shouldn't rush too much right now.
Here are 7 key points:
1. Binance spot 24-hour trading volume is $548 million, while contract trading volume is $4.638 billion. The most active market right now is still the contract market.
2. Aggressive buy orders account for 51.1%, bulls only have a slight advantage, far from a frenzy of buying.
3. The most interesting thing is that although the price rose, contract open interest dropped from 97,309 to 95,070, down by 2,239 contracts! This rally is partly driven by liquidations, not purely new long positions entering.
4. The US Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $643 million on the last trading day, with a total outflow of $976 million over the past 7 trading days. In other words, institutions have not yet shown clear signs of buying back.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
The market has been interesting these days.
Gold first fell below $4000, then rebounded to around $3900 today; oil prices dropped more than 3% due to news about Iran negotiations. On the other hand, large tech stocks have pulled back about 11% over the past three weeks, but Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on U.S. tech stocks today.
I think the most worth watching now is how much selling pressure remains in this AI valuation crash.
Previously, tech and gold were too crowded; when the market turned, everyone deleveraged together. Now, with U.S. Treasury yields falling and oil prices starting to ease, several factors pressuring tech stocks are relaxing.
My own $SNDK long position is still losing, and I haven't dared to add heavily to my tech holdings.
If semiconductors stop falling and U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, I will start seriously looking at this round of oversold recovery.
What’s really interesting recently is that capital is starting to find direction again.
$SNDK $XAU With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats contested, the midterms could reset the practical limits on Congress's fiscal, legislative, and oversight agenda. The reported $233M in crypto-linked political donations makes the sector's policy exposure unusually visible, but spending alone cannot tell us which rules will emerge.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 【Nonfarm payrolls expected at only 55,000, market still waiting for the Fed to continue raising rates】
At 21:30 Beijing time on November 6, the US will release October nonfarm payrolls. The latest market expectation is an increase of about 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. The Fed just kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% last week, but two officials directly voted in favor of a rate hike, and the probability of a December hike has risen to about 73%. This nonfarm report is essentially a test of whether the Fed has reason to continue tightening.
Inflation remains the Fed's biggest headache: core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, higher than the previous 3.0%; meanwhile, initial jobless claims were only 194,000, with no obvious worsening in layoffs. Employment growth is weak, but companies have not carried out large-scale layoffs, which actually gives the Fed room to continue raising rates.
This nonfarm report can be seen as a confirmation battle for rate hike expectations. If new jobs significantly exceed expectations and wage growth also strengthens, US Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to be supported, putting pressure on risk assets like $BTC; if employment is significantly below expectations, the market would have reason to bet on a pause in rate hikes. Rate hike expectations are already very high, so ordinary weak data may not be enough; the weakness must be sufficiently obvious to truly reverse market pricing.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The real main theme this week is not in the crypto circle, but in AI earnings reports. The Q3 reports from the three major cloud providers point to the same thing: revenue is rising, but free cash flow is being eaten up by capital expenditures. The on-chain US stock contracts have directly priced in this expectation.
$xINTC Intel was the first to have problems, with earnings below expectations and a single-day performance marking the worst in fifty years. AI money is not evenly distributed; laggards are punished very quickly.
$xMU Micron's on-chain perpetual contract is at 907, higher than Friday's after-hours 889, indicating funds are moving forward in the storage price increase cycle; AMD's on-chain is 513, also higher than after-hours, but its lifeline depends entirely on its data center share, so earnings week volatility will be amplified.
$xNVDA Nvidia's on-chain is 204.8, unchanged from after-hours price, indicating the market has no new expectations for it and will price it on earnings day.
On-chain quotes can price Monday in advance but can be withdrawn before the earnings release.Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.59%, with the first-level pair scale about $165; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact proportion.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is already inverted. Near-month annualized +2.63%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.06%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.38%. If there is no positive executable spread, do not place orders based on the positive spread strategy. Why did $SOPH rise in the morning and fall in the afternoon today?
1. Extremely crowded short positions triggered selling pressure
The current market funding rate is -0.1272%, indicating extremely crowded short sentiment in the market. When shorts heavily short, if the price rises in the morning, it often faces huge pressure from short covering or short selling at highs, making it difficult for the afternoon market to hold and eventually leading to a decline.
2. Dense sell orders above create obvious resistance
From the order book depth, there is a clear "sell wall" of sell orders above. For example, at price levels 0.001525 and 0.002025, the order volume is very concentrated. This means bulls need to consume a large amount of funds to "eat through" these sell orders when pushing the price up. When buying power is insufficient to break through these resistance levels, the price naturally pulls back downward.
3. Sellers actively offloading at high levels
According to VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) data, the average active sell price within 15 minutes (0.00146673) is higher than the average active buy price (0.00145839). This detail shows that recently, buyers tend to accumulate at lower prices while sellers are more actively offloading at higher prices, and this trading behavior directly causes downward pressure on the price. I guess that in ten years, prediction markets will be like the weather forecast in your wallet; when checking the progress of Ethereum upgrades, you can conveniently see the probabilities given by the market. However, the odds will also be driven by sentiment and capital, so I’m hesitant to take them as true probabilities. Unlike holding spot assets, here settlements must be made according to agreed conditions. If it’s written as a strategy, I suppose I’d first have to spend time understanding the question: what exactly counts as a "successful upgrade"? Otherwise, by the time the code is running, everyone might still be arguing about the question.$COMP
Compound's importance comes from its role in decentralized lending rather than short-term market narratives. Lending demand, borrowing costs, collateral quality, and protocol security are central to its long-term position. Competition across DeFi lending markets is intense, so maintaining capital efficiency and attracting sustainable borrowing activity remain significant challenges. Ethereum has dropped like this for a reason.
The Americans' crypto buying counter was emptied in October.
Throughout October, Americans withdrew $1.6 billion from this counter.
It was the coldest month since it opened.
Five weeks, each week worse than the last.
The counter is called an ETF; it's the window through which Americans buy crypto with money.
From July to September, this counter was still receiving $3 billion.
In October alone, more than half ran away.
Ethereum is now at $2,299.
An analyst drew a line, saying 2295 is the bottom.
Just a tiny bit away. Almost broken.
Don't rush to bottom-fish.
Just watch whether the counter is receiving or sending out money this week.
If it's still sending out, it's not the bottom.
$ETH #Ethereum#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Considering the current market expectations and valuation levels, my core judgment is: the performance figures themselves are very likely to still exceed expectations, but the threshold for "meeting high expectations" has been raised extremely high, and the stock price faces significantly asymmetric risks, On October 31 at 11:34 UTC, Ethereum experienced a 1-block reorganization (reorg). A 10 ETH deposit happened to be in the discarded block, and THORChain had already observed and recorded it. This swap did not meet the limit price and was refunded, so the vault withdrew the 10 ETH it never actually received; the user's deposit on the main chain was also refunded once. THORChain stated that all nodes detected the reorg, but the review that should have revoked this deposit failed to conclude in time, so the record was confirmed. The solvency check automatically paused ETH swaps; within about 2 minutes, nodes stopped signing ETH transactions, then voted to pause other chains. As of the November 1 announcement: ATOM, BCH, BSC, BTC, DOGE, ETH, LTC, SOL, TRON, ZEC are paused; AVAX, BASE, RUNE, XRPL continue as usual. The user proactively returned the 10 ETH, and the vault's solvency was restored. More importantly, the official statement highlighted the risk: since this is public, every time an external chain reorg occurs, malicious actors could use the same nonce to send new transactions and withdraw funds from the vault. The fix is still in progress, with no announced recovery time. Chainalysis also pointed out that this pause unexpectedly slowed down the laundering of Binance stolen funds through THORChain cross-chain swaps. Reminder for developers: Ethereum takes about 2 epochs (approximately 13 minutes) to be considered final. Any bridge, exchange, payment, or AI that "records deposits as soon as they see them"The hacker story grabbed the headlines, but it was macro data that pushed $BTC to 77,732. Strong GDP and sticky PCE inflation revived rate-hike expectations, and that repricing—not a fundamental collapse—drove the sell-off. The damage showed up in leverage: more than $1.3 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 86% of the total. That ratio matters. When one side of the book is that crowded, a modest macro shock becomes a forced unwind, and the price move overs$TRUMP TRUMP This market situation is a classic case of long-term one-way bleeding; the buying side has already given up.
Insiders have forcibly extracted nearly 1 billion USD through unlocking and fees, leaving the mess entirely for retail investors to bear. Looking at the current order book, the rebound is pitifully weak, with only a few million in daily trading volume—there is simply no incremental capital flowing in.
Over 20 million tokens are queued up above, waiting to be liquidated. Don't expect a dead cat bounce to save the day; holding long positions here stubbornly is purely settling accounts for the project team.
#TRUMP
$TRUMP
👇$XAU Gold and silver are more likely to first rebound and then continue to decline.
There is currently no reliable bottom-fishing signal in the major gold cycle. When it broke below the 3950–4000 support range, it closed with a large bearish candle with almost no lower shadow, indicating weak support below and that bears firmly control the market. Observing on the four-hour level, this round of decline is likely not over yet, and further dips to 3800 cannot be ruled out. In the short term, there may be a recovery, with a rebound testing the 4000 level, but this is just a pullback during the downtrend and should not be considered a trend reversal. To confidently go long, a rebound close to 200 dollars in magnitude is needed, followed by 2–4 weeks of consolidation to form a clear bottoming pattern; if even a decent rebound cannot be achieved, beware of the market further dipping to 3400–3600.
In my judgment, this gold cycle is a deep monthly-level correction that may last 6 to 12 months, and the bottom has not yet been reached. What we can look for are weekly-level rebound opportunities within the major downtrend, which carry relatively high risk.
Before this round of gold adjustment ends, I will temporarily not consider positioning silver long; the monthly-level target for silver remains in the 35–40 dollar range.
Risk warning: This is only a personal market view and does not constitute trading advice
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $LIT LIT (Lighter) License Status
Core Objective: Apply for two licenses from the U.S. CFTC
• DCM: Designated Contract Market
• DCO: Derivatives Clearing Organization
✅ Current Progress:
• No formal application has been submitted yet, nor has any approval been granted
• Announced at the Q3 investor call on October 21: plan to submit the formal application in November 2026. Currently in the "pre-communication, pending submission" phase, purely an expectation narrative, the license has not been obtained yet.
Official Statement Update (Latest)
◦ Founder Vlad said in podcasts and interviews: "licence application is pending," meaning materials are being prepared and pre-communicated, which does not mean it has been officially submitted for processing; he himself is on the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, which is only an advisory role and does not represent an approval fast track or license endorsement.
Key Market Expectation Gap
◦ ✅ Positive Narrative: Once formally submitted, it will be the first wave of strong catalysts; if the license is obtained, integration with Robinhood targeting U.S. institutions will be the main market speculation theme #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Analysis of the subsequent impact of the non-farm payrolls on the trends of BTC and gold!
$BTC $XAUT Is Trump about to lose Congress? Midterm election countdown, 70% odds right before your eyes! Will US stocks and BTC be repriced again?
On November 3, the US midterm elections will officially take place.
Kalshi data shows the market-implied probability of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate is 70%, while the probability of the Republicans sweeping both chambers is only about 6%.
This does not mean Trump himself will lose, but that the Republicans may lose control of Congress.
① Will Trump's policies face obstacles?
If the Democrats control both chambers, it may become more difficult for Trump to push tax cuts, fiscal legislation, and regulatory reforms. Tariff policies will also face more political battles.
② Is there really a bottom-fishing pattern in midterm elections?
In 2018, the Nasdaq bottomed in December, while in 2022, the S&P 500 bottomed early in October.
JPMorgan statistics show that since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in the 12 months following every midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%.
But historical patterns do not guarantee repetition.
③ Will $BTC rebound accordingly?
BTC is currently still fluctuating around $78,000.
In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin's important lows appeared after the midterm elections.
④ Where is the real opportunity?
The market has already priced in election expectations. If the results meet expectations, there may not be big swings; if surprises occur, it could trigger sharp volatility. Will this time first dig a deeper hole?#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The most vulnerable link has never been the news that hasn't passed, but that everyone treats it as if it has already passed. Do you remember who was the first to be thrown off the car during the last round of meme frenzy caused by ETF rumors? When I saw Canary submit an ETF application for $PEPE, my first reaction was not excitement but alertness. Because such news is most likely to push expectations too far ahead during volatile phases, with prices running first and emotions heating up first, but the actual implementation has to wait for the SEC to complete the S-1 process, and the S-1 has no fixed approval timeline; submitting the application does not equal approval. In other words, the market is currently trading more like a "possibility premium," not a certainty of positive news. I noticed a detail: $ZEC was also rapidly lifted recently due to ETF-related news, indicating that current funds are extremely sensitive to the "compliance narrative," even if the target itself is quite controversial. This sensitivity is a double-edged sword. On the bullish side, $PEPE obtaining application qualification itself will strengthen the compliance imagination of the meme sector. If BTC and ETH volatility converges and risk appetite warms up, the leading meme in altcoins is likely to receive tentative buying first, and the spread of sentiment will drive sector rotation. The bearish risk lies in the fact that there is no timetable for approval, and after the news heat fades, the chips chasing highs will become the most vulnerable layer, and when volatility amplifies, these expectation-driven positions are often the first to be cleaned out. So now I am more focused on three signals: whether $PEPE can hold key support after volume expansion, whether internal shifts appear in the meme sector$BTC has never lost money in the 535 days before a halving
Three data points. Skeptics call that luck. Holders call it supply math
The next halving lands in April 2028"A 7.03% drop brought a 140% gain, but a floating profit of 0.04U can be wiped out by a single rebound at any time."
$AKE 20x short, 0.00612→0.00569, +140.52%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound about 0.35% for this 140% to vanish completely.
What does 0.35% mean for $AKE? A normal upward wick, or even a large order surge in the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately going long — just a technical rebound is enough to erase it.
20x leverage magnifies a 7.03% drop into 140%, and likewise magnifies a 0.35% rebound into zero. It gives you huge percentages but is always ready to take them back.
So I never decide to close based on "how much I’ve earned," only on how far it is from the cost line. A 0.35% buffer looks like room, but the asset’s volatility never makes sense.
Only one move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ TRX has shown relative strength, rising steadily during the session and approaching highs, contrasting with the weakness seen in most altcoins. The stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee revenue within the TRON ecosystem have always been the fundamental support for TRX, and during market risk-off phases, investors prefer established public chains with real use cases. Recently, capital has clearly favored defensive assets, making TRX appear more resilient. However, after a short-term continuous rally, attention should be paid to whether turnover at high levels accelerates; if trading volume continues to expand, the strong structure will be more convincing. $TRX💰 0.125 ETH, once valued up to $100 million, but now only 10.19 million left
There is a detail on-chain: In April 2023, someone exchanged 0.125 ETH (about $240 at the time) for a batch of PEPE, which at its peak was valued close to $100 million. Two and a half years later, the holdings at the same address have dropped to only 10.19 million, a drawdown of 89.81% — not because of selling off, but because the asset itself fell back.
He is still adding: the latest purchase was 45.08 billion tokens, funded by selling 600,000 SPX (about $210,000). At the current price of 0.00000482, that equals exactly $217,000 — this is a full position swap, not just a casual buy.
On the other side, addresses related to Justin Sun are accumulating PEPE, amounting to $51.25 million, about 3% of the supply. The community is talking about an ETF and token burn; the former is just an application submission, and the latter has not been confirmed. PEPE dropped 3.41% today; whales buying on the dip doesn’t mean you should too.
Conclusion: This is a story of concentrated chips, not a reversal. Whether it can hold above 0.0000050 is more important than who is adding positions.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $84,324
Stop Loss (SL): $71,832
• ETH — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $2,561
Stop Loss (SL): $2,012
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR Non-farm payrolls are coming, will the December rate hike change? This Friday night at 21:30 (Beijing time), the US October non-farm payroll report will be released, which will likely decide whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and also determine if BTC can break out of the 78,000 sideways range.
📌 First, look at market expectations
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 60,000 new non-farm jobs in October, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Last month (September) only added 29,000 jobs, far below the previous expectation of over 80,000; the average monthly increase over the past 12 months was only 45,000.
📌 What is the Fed's current stance
On October 28, the Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, with the two dissenting members advocating a 25 basis point hike. Subsequent data showed Q3 GDP annualized growth of 3.4%, and September core PCE year-on-year at 3.1%, indicating inflationary pressure remains significant. Currently, the futures market gives about a 75%–80% probability of a rate hike in December, with the decision announced at 3 AM (Beijing time) on December 10.
📌 Three scenarios, each with different impacts on the crypto space
1️⃣ Non-farm payrolls greatly exceed expectations (over 100,000), unemployment rate does not rise: December rate hike is basically confirmed, the US dollar strengthens, BTC and ETH face short-term pressure.
2️⃣ Meets expectations (around 60,000): rate hike expectations basically unchanged POL's recent trend has been weak, and trading volume has not significantly increased during the pullback, indicating that the pressure is more naturally due to a decline in risk appetite. POL is linked to the Polygon ecosystem upgrade and aggregation scaling narrative, and the market will subsequently focus on on-chain user activity, transaction activity, and enterprise cooperation progress. The key now is not just the technical roadmap, but whether the ecosystem can convert its technical advantages into sustained usage demand. In the short term, if it can recover and stabilize within the recent consolidation range, market sentiment may have a chance to shift from defense to recovery. $POL$BTC
The number of active Bitcoin addresses has dropped significantly from its peak, but the daily average transaction volume hasn't decreased much. At first, I thought the on-chain activity had cooled down, but then I read the second part and thought, huh? Why didn't it drop together? I don't plan to change my holding strategy for now; instead, I want to first review the statistical criteria of these two indicators. Fewer addresses don't necessarily mean people have left; who exactly is supporting the remaining transactions?On the first day of lifting $BNB withdrawals, 3.64 billion flowed out, but OKX only absorbed 370 million, and Hyperliquid only absorbed 240 million.
The remaining 3 billion, because people no longer trust exchanges, all moved to their own cold wallets. So there is no winner in this incident.
BNB has lost a lot of user confidence, now holding at the 200-day moving average around 690–700, with resistance above at 730–760. Its on-chain adoption is not its own brand, and its valuation is anchored in capital operations, which has become a burden now. BNB is currently suppressed by the hacker incident and is estimated to possibly break below 700 at any time.
$HYPE, although a spillover beneficiary, actually not that much. It works as a narrative, but it’s a bit forced to consider it fundamental growth. The long-term fundamentals still depend on ICE bringing Hyperliquid onto the compliant US stock market, especially since even Druckenmiller has invested in TradeXYZ, which is its biggest structural positive this year.
$OKB also benefited from this capital flight event, but the reason is that OKX attracted users with heavy subsidies. So today it rose the most in the CeFi sector, making it the strongest defensive position in this market. It has already reclaimed the 7-day moving average at 112 and the 20-day moving average at 113.2, recovering the position lost last Friday. The 30-day moving average at 117.4 is the next hurdle.Shenzhen Intermediate People's Court disclosed a case
An employee transferred the company's coins, considered as embezzlement, with the amount appraised according to the exchange rate on the day of the incident, totaling more than 2.58 million yuan. Everyone is celebrating that "coins are also considered property," but the really interesting part is the latter half — virtual currency pricing is not allowed domestically, yet the court must first set a price to convict.1,000,000 Possible Bitcoin Futures
We just finished a 48-hour machine learning run simulating 1 million paths — incorporating macro shocks, dollar debasement, AI agent economies, adoption curves, and more
Median path lands $BTC at ~$280K by 2028Wallet 3M219K transferred out a total of 26,081.63 BTC from 11-01 14:11 to 11-02 14:03, transferred back 5,312.94, net decrease of 20,768.69, with the balance dropping from 173,885.66 to 153,116.97 (starting balance taken before 11-01 14:11).
According to Whale Alert, it is labeled as "Binance," and Onchain Lens also calls it Binance cold wallet; both are third-party annotations.
Three transactions: 17,548.10, 3,984.27, 4,549.27. Today, two transactions each had 3,000 sent to the same address bc1qhp7n.
After receiving, bc1qhp7n immediately sent out dozens of multi-output transactions, which is the pattern of exchange batch withdrawals. According to BTCPulseData, it is labeled as Binance withdrawal hot wallet.
The "Binance outflow" reported by Whale Alert may be an internal Binance transfer.
Today's 3,984.27 and 4,549.27 are the same amounts as the two transfers on 08-01 and 08-13.Looking at the XAUT USDT daily chart from late October to early November 2026, the price is sitting around 3897.1 after dropping sharply from a high near 4210.7. Similar to past market corrections where heavy red volume candles push moving averages downward, this recent slide shows strong selling pressure. Looking at old up and downs, major drops often test lower support before finding a solid bounce. My all time best prediction is that price might dip slightly to test deeper support near 3850 I always thought the blockchain would be crowded during a bull market, but looking at the data, it's as quiet as during the New Year.
The 30-day average of active Bitcoin addresses is now 629,000, compared to 1.1 million in December 2024, a sharp drop of 43%, not even reaching the annual average of 702,000.
The strange thing is the money is still moving. The daily average transfer volume is 819,000 BTC, only 5.4% less than the peak. People aren't coming, but the money keeps moving.
So I guess the ones left on-chain now are the whales—one person equals what used to be ten, so the transfer volume naturally doesn't drop. As for retail investors, they might all be resting in exchanges, too lazy to even open their wallets.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ From current data, Circle faces a core contradiction in Q3 between "scale expansion and profit realization mismatch." Although the total circulation of USDC is about 70 billion tokens, there was a net redemption of about 800 million tokens within 7 days as of October 29, indicating a short-term contraction in demand. More critically, about 95% of revenue depends on reserve interest; now the reserve yield has dropped from 4.14% to about 3.5%, while Q2 distribution costs reached $412 million (of which about $325 million was paid to Coinbase), resulting in only about 7 cents of net profit left for every dollar earned.
Therefore, the focus of the November 4 earnings report is not on revenue figures (market expectations are about $790 million), but on how management explains the divergence of "volume growth without profit growth." If distribution costs and downward pressure on interest rates cannot be alleviated, even if USDC payment business continues to expand, profit realization will remain under pressure. After the $XPL flash crash, don't rush to talk about opportunities.
Yesterday it dropped directly from 0.086 to 0.069. Among 16 related wallets, 12 withdrew about $2,038,600 margin in advance. HLP passively took long positions and lost about $556,000. But before the first liquidation, it had already fallen, so we can't simply blame these wallets for the crash.
Now it has bounced back to around 0.07 in 1 hour, but each rebound is weaker than the last, with no short-term reversal. On November 25, about 228 million tokens will be unlocked, adding supply pressure ahead. The price trend has been mediocre since launch, and the rebounds have lacked sustainability.
For this kind of asset, it's better to miss the rebound than to catch a coin in a downtrend.An unusual combination has appeared on the Bitcoin blockchain: fewer people, but the money hasn't decreased much.
As of November 1, the 30-day average of active addresses is 629,000, down 43% from the peak of 1.1 million in December 2024, and about 10% below the annual average of 702,000. Looking at this number alone, it is a very typical mid-bear market characteristic—nearly half fewer people open their wallets daily.
But another metric hasn't collapsed. The 30-day average daily transfer volume is 819,000 BTC, only down 5.4% from the peak and about 5.5% higher than the annual average.
The two curves are moving in opposite directions, which is key. The number of addresses measures "how many people are using it," while the transfer volume measures "how much money is moving." A 40% drop in addresses with almost no change in transfer volume indicates that the ones exiting are small, low-frequency addresses, while the remaining players are those making larger single transactions. There is no bleeding on-chain, just a change in the holder structure.
This also explains why the price often feels like "no one is catching the falling knife, but it’s not crashing either." Selling pressure comes from large addresses, which remain active; retail investors watching from the sidelines only make the address count look bad but do not directly turn into sell orders.
However, a caveat: transfer volume may also be inflated by whales or exchanges consolidating funds, which does not represent new demand. More accurately, it is existing funds moving, with no return of new users, so network activity has yet to sustainably recover.
The focus is not on price but on when 629,000 will climb back above 702,000. A rebound in addresses is the signal of new money entering the market. SOL accounts are 78% long, but active trades are only 56%; XRP faces a liquidation zone at 123 million; ADA shorts are paying, but the price remains sideways
$SOL Many longs, but money hasn't followed
Open interest of $4.4 billion is still increasing, with longs accounting for 78.6% of accounts, but active long trades only 56.6%. More troubling, a certain whale deposited 1.49 million SOL to exchanges within 10 days. Crowded accounts, trade divergence, and large holders moving positions—94 is the long defense level; if broken, the crowded positions could turn into fuel.
$XRP Below 1.229 is the liquidation zone, above is the 200-week moving average
Below $1.229 is the main long liquidation zone, with about a 54% chance of being tested within 24 hours. But the 200-week moving average lies between 1.25 and 1.28, which was also the starting point of the August rally. Leverage is cooling off, open interest has dropped to $1.38 billion, and much of the excessive leverage has been cleared. 1.229 is a local bottom or a pause in the downtrend.
$ADA Shorts are paying, price is sideways
Funding rate is -0.021%, shorts are paying to hold positions, long-short ratio is 0.79. Given this sentiment, the price should have dropped, but it only dipped by two cents after a whole afternoon of sideways movement. Negative funding rate, crowded shorts, price not falling—either no one is buying, or shorts are stacking themselves as fuel.
Summary: Watch if SOL holds 94.35, XRP eyes the 1.2292 liquidation zone, ADA watches 0.2143 sideways to see who gives up first
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $AKE This is a 20x short position, entry at 0.01141, target at 0.00567, floating profit +1,006.13%.
Subtracting the two numbers: 0.01141 minus 0.00567 equals 0.00574, which corresponds to a 50.31% change based on the entry price. Multiplying by 20x results in the four-digit figure shown on the screen—perfectly aligned.
What actually happened is that the "target was halved," not that the "account multiplied tenfold." Restoring this clarifies the other side as well: to recover the cost, it needs to rise by 101.23%. If it falls by half, it must double to get back—not a miscalculation, but a change in the denominator—and when the market turns, it follows the latter path.
From the trend perspective: the center of gravity is at 0.00567. Downwards: 0.00560 around 1018, 0.00550 around 1036, 0.00540 around 1053, 0.00500 around 1124, 0.00450 around 1211, 0.00400 around 1299; upwards: 0.00570 around 1001, 0.00580 around 983, 0.00600 around 948, 0.00650 around 861, 0.00700 around 773, 0.00800 around 598, 0.00900 around 422, 0.01000 around 247, 0.01100 around 72, 0.01141 zeroed out, near 0.01198 broken through. First take a position, continue following if it breaks 0.00550, and move on if it stands above 0.00600. $BTC $ETH Dage Market Watch
Withdrawal resumed next door. To be honest, the resumption of withdrawals in 28 fiat currencies sounds like good news, but it is not a signal that the "alarm is lifted."
Let's clarify the situation first: Binance was hit at the end of October, and withdrawals were closed for nearly two days. Now they are reopening in phases. USD, AED, VND are among the newly reopened ones, totaling 28 fiat currencies. But if you glance at their network status page—LINK, WBTC, HYPE are still not fully restored, and BTC, ETH, USDT are only "partially restored," meaning not every chain allows free withdrawals.
My view is simple: just because the channel is open doesn't mean you can relax.
During the previous period of "can buy but can't withdraw," the hardest part wasn't how the K-line moved, but that you wanted to run but couldn't. Now that fiat withdrawals are possible, it's a relief, but on November 1st, Binance had a net outflow of nearly 3.6 billion USD, with more people withdrawing than depositing. What does this indicate? It means many people, like you and me, first react by moving money out rather than rushing in to buy the dip.
So don't interpret "fiat withdrawal resumption" as "all bad news is out, time to go long." It's more like: the door has opened a crack, but there are still a few feet stepping out behind it.
To sum up in one sentence: channel restoration is fixing the door, not the starting gun. When the door opens, first confirm if your position can get out before thinking about where to rush in. When the market is grinding you down, being able to withdraw and sleep well is more valuable than any indicator.
Dage is done speaking, follow, $BTC $ETH Observation: ETF net outflows for 5 consecutive weeks, only Fidelity FETH is buying
Current price 2298.8, up 1.1% in 24 hours, trading volume $227 million, slightly stronger than BTC's 0.1%
The question is who is selling. Last week, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $432 million for the 5th consecutive week, with BlackRock's ETHA alone outflowing $391 million
The only one buying against the trend is Fidelity FETH, with a net inflow of $63 million in one week. The divergence among large institutions is now on the table
Coinbase premium index has recovered from -0.21 on October 29 to -0.13. US buying is returning but has not yet turned positive
2295 is a key level many analysts are watching. The current price is just above it. There is no Fed meeting in November; what can influence it this week is Friday's employment data. If it falls back below 2250, a reassessment is needed. $BNB
Yesterday someone in the group said Binance is done for this time. I didn't respond.
Those days were indeed scary. $6.3 billion hot wallet disappeared, BNB dropped sharply from 750 to 678, with $46 million traded that day, usually only over $10 million a day.
Four days later, now at 711. 24-hour low 704, high 718, volatility less than 2%.
On-chain funds are still moving out. Newsflash says Binance Bitcoin wallet balance has dropped for four consecutive days, down 23,000 BTC compared to before the attack, roughly $1.8 billion at current price.
So the money is less, but the coin price hasn't dropped. Contract positions of $53.8 million haven't been withdrawn, and the fee rate is still slightly positive.
My view is that the market treats this as operational risk, not credit risk. Withdrawals are not blocked, fiat channels have even added USD, so people are reluctant to run.
The first sign of real trouble is not a few points drop, but inability to withdraw.
So for BNB, I neither short nor long, just watch it digest this matter on its own.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #Binance Hacker Tracking EP01｜Continuous Updates
4 days after Binance was hacked, the major funds on-chain have not moved: 1.35 billion USDT and 823 million USDC remain on the blacklist (on-chain recheck at 11/2 16:38). On 10/30, Binance stated it had verified and frozen about 3 billion USD.
ETH side: 0x8532 received 197,460.01 ETH, none has been transferred out so far.
SOL side: AffzF (marked as Binance_Hacker by Arkham) currently holds 425,182.56 SOL; Eze86 received 485,270 SOL on 11/1 and has not moved it since. On 11/1, via Relay, 838.26 SOL was exchanged for about 1.02 BTC, consolidated to bc1q8xnar and not transferred out.
Today 11/2: From 12:14 to 15:16, AffzF transferred out 35,640.78 SOL in 8 transactions, of which 35,288.25 SOL was swapped via Jupiter into 3,326,295.56 USDC, then split into small amounts and distributed to over 60 addresses. As of 16:20, no cross-chain bridge or known exchange deposits have been seen. After 16:02, AffzF lost about 5,900 SOL more; the destination is still being tracked.$BTC failed to close above the 50-week EMA but successfully closed above the 50-week MA again.
Now, the next two important levels are $78,600 and $80,000.
If it reclaims these two levels, BTC may start the next wave of rally.