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$LTC is trading 26% below its 200-week sma
the chart puts LTC back in its accumulation zone, but cheap relative to trend doesnt automatically mean a bottom is in
watch whether buyers can reclaim that long-term averageApple's earnings report hasn't been released yet, but institutions are already clashing: Goldman Sachs raised the target price to 390 and rated it a buy, while Jefferies, despite underperforming the market, says the guidance will be disappointing. Such a big divergence indicates this quarter is quite complex.
My personal judgment is: this quarter's revenue and EPS will likely just meet or slightly exceed expectations, but this conclusion of beating expectations should be taken with a grain of salt.
The market expects Q4 revenue around $113.4 billion, EPS about $2, iPhone revenue estimated at $56.5 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales of the high-priced iPhone 18 Pro series, plus a wave of early purchases before the September price increase that pulled demand forward. So the revenue side is solid, not a big problem.
But the big issue lies in the gross margin. Apple's own Q4 gross margin guidance is 47% to 48%, which sounds okay, right? But this includes about 1 percentage point of tariff refunds. Excluding that, the core gross margin is only 46% to 47%, while the adjusted gross margin last quarter was 48.1%. This decline, Apple itself said, can be fully explained by rising memory costs. AI data centers have pushed DRAM and NAND prices sky-high, and even a hardware giant like Apple can't absorb the cost pass-through. Moreover, once the low-priced inventory is used up, the pressure will extend further.
Summary: This quarter's earnings will show both a beat on numbers and pressure on profit quality. Revenue is supported by high-end models, but profits are eaten away by costs. How the stock moves after hours will depend on how the new CEO sets the tone for next quarter's guidance during the earnings call.
#财报观察员：财报季回顾与展望 Core DAO Business Truth on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The $CORE token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. What is listed is a BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) issued by a third-party issuer Valour (under DeFi Technologies), with the underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify this as "Core listed on the London Stock Exchange," which is a promotional statement and not a listing of the CORE coin for trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: An ETP (Exchange Traded Product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset. Bitcoin enters the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business logic - Valour holds real BTC, stored in institutional cold storage; - BTC is delegated to Core network validators for staking, generating staking rewards (nominal annualized about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value, so investors buying this London Stock Exchange security indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Open to professional investors in 2025-09; FCA license obtained in 2026-01, opening trading to UK retail investors. 3. Core's role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-PWhen prices fall, the status of miners reveals the quality of the bottom more than the price itself. Surrendering miners first shut down their machines, then sell coins, leaving traces on the chain. The on-chain traces this time point in a different direction.
$BTC network hashrate climbed to 1025 EH/s, increasing 13.4% over thirty days, with difficulty standing at 148T. The price is near a six-week low, yet the hashrate is hitting new highs, indicating no shutdown wave, which is usually a bottom characteristic rather than a top one.
$BCH and LTC lack an ETF narrative; their pricing relies entirely on mining economics, making them more sensitive to hashrate. BCH around 282 and LTC near 56 are following BTC’s rhythm, showing no independent market movement.
$ETC is the most typical case; the halving narrative was hyped for many years, but now no one mentions it. The price hovering around 7 dollars indicates the market has already crossed out that line.
The PoW line follows the hashrate, not the sentiment.CORE is a small-cap altcoin without an industry-standard whale threshold (unlike BTC which is fixed at ≥1000 BTC, or ETH commonly at ≥10000 ETH). Generally, within the community, there are two commonly used thresholds for tracking CORE whales (Nansen / Lookonchain): 1. CORE Mega Whales (capable of impacting the market): ≥1,000,000 CORE 2. Large holders/Shark tier: 100,000 to 1,000,000 CORE Core characteristics (the biggest difference from BTC and ETH) 1. Extremely high concentration of holdings The top wallets include: Core DAO treasury, team/investor lockup contracts, staking contracts, and exchange cold wallets. The top 10 addresses hold a very high proportion of the circulating supply, which is the fundamental reason why CORE’s volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH. 2. No fixed official number - The ≥1,000,000 CORE tier: the real-time number of addresses is usually in the dozens (dynamic, changing with unlocking, staking, and transfers) - The ≥100,000 CORE (large holders): a few hundred addresses Many addresses are staking contracts, foundation treasury, or exchange reserves, not individual large holders. The number of independent mega whales who can freely sell and actively trade is much smaller than the number of addresses. 3. Data pain points: CORE’s on-chain statistics are not as mature as BTC or ETH. Santiment and Glassnode do not provide stable whale-specific statistics like they do for Bitcoin and Ethereum; data can only be found on Core ScanZcash's NU7 network upgrade will activate at block height 3,543,405. Zakura estimates around November 6 at 00:50 UTC, Coindaro estimates around 02:30 UTC based on recent block times, with block height as the reference. The most direct change: block interval drops from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. It's not just faster. According to Zebra 7.0.0 release notes: daily issuance remains unchanged (block reward divided by 3, remaining halving interval multiplied by 3); ZIP 235 moves 60% of each block's fees out of circulation into reserves, miners get the remaining 40%; Orchard throughput increases from 2.9 to 6.6 TPS. The real action involves three groups. Nodes: must upgrade to Zebra 7.0.0 or Zakura 1.7.0, Coindaro estimates the old Zebra 6.4.2 will shut down around November 3 at 19:20 UTC, earlier than NU7. Mining pools: coinbase can only claim 40% of fees, only 'time' can be changed in getblocktemplate. Wallets and exchanges: after activation, v4 transactions become invalid (v5/v6 still valid), coins still in the old Sprout pool will be unspendable. Also, the upgrade migrates the database to v29, unreadable by 6.x; to roll back, you must first back up state/v28. My view: this is a rare "performance + economic model" simultaneous change on an old chain. Next, watch three things: orphan rate after activation, exchanges are$XIAOMI
Today's move is not mystical. Last night, Xiaomi officially announced that October deliveries exceeded 50,000 units, setting a new single-month high for this year. The Hong Kong stock surged more than 6% today, closing near HKD 28. The cumulative total for the first ten months is about 340,000 units, completing just over 60% of the full-year target of 550,000 units, so the pace is on track. The real growth comes from the recently launched Pengcheng series in September, also known as Sky Nomad, which locked in over 70,000 orders within 30 days of launch. This product has directly reversed the year-over-year decline trend. Citibank gave a buy rating with a target price of HKD 33.2; 94% of the 29 institutions are bullish, with an average target of HKD 34.4. Additionally, Xiaomi invested RMB 1.7 billion to acquire a 5.34% stake in Sunwoda Power, bringing the battery supply chain under its control. Technically, the price has just risen above the short- and medium-term moving averages but is still below the 200-day moving average, so this move looks more like sentiment repair plus fundamental realization rather than the start of a major uptrend. My own interpretation is that Q4 is the quarter with the lowest base for the year; the financial report will be released on November 24. If the automotive gross margin continues to improve, the premium on contracts will become stronger. The only risk point is liquidity. This X-Perp on OKX only has a daily trading volume of around USD 4 million, so if large funds come in or out, slippage will be painful. Therefore, my position is light, just as a lookout for myself, not betting heavily. The U.S. midterm elections are on November 3rd, and starting from November 4th Beijing time, election results from various states will gradually come out. I think the crypto community really needs to pay attention this time. Many people might think, what does electing a senator or representative in the U.S. have to do with trading BTC? But if you think carefully, many changes in the U.S. crypto industry over the past two years are actually inseparable from politics. From BTC spot ETFs, stablecoin legislation, to RWA, on-chain U.S. stocks, and the SEC's regulatory stance on crypto assets, U.S. policies are directly influencing the entire industry's development direction. So for this midterm election, what I care about most is not who wins or loses, but who will decide crypto policy for the next two years. 1. First, let's see who will control Congress. Currently, the Republican Party controls both the House and Senate, but the latest polls and forecasts show the Democrats have a better chance of taking the House, and the Senate race is very competitive. I think there could be three possible outcomes. The first: Republicans continue to control both chambers. In this case, the resistance to crypto-related policies pushed by the Trump administration might be relatively smaller. The market may raise expectations again for progress in crypto legislation, especially on exchange regulation, DeFi, and digital asset classification—issues that have long been unresolved. But here is a detail: Republican control of both chambers does not mean all bills will pass smoothly; many Senate legislative procedures still require bipartisan support. The second: Democrats take the House, Republicans hold the Senate. This situation is more interesting.A fake app requesting mnemonic phrases slipped into the Solana Mobile store and was taken down. This is true; the official team disclosed it, and the media followed up. The timeline is as follows: On November 1, 2026, someone unauthorized accessed Solana's dApp Publishing Portal and directly inserted a malicious app called "SKR Claim" into the store, also tampering with the display content of App Spotlight and Quests. This app immediately asked for your wallet mnemonic phrase, stayed on the homepage for about an hour before being removed, and then the official team started remotely deleting it from installed devices. Upon investigation, the official team fixed a vulnerability: apps that hadn't completed the publishing process could be directly linked to the store's display area. This linking flaw combined with the publishing portal being hacked became the entry point for this incident. As for how the attacker got into the publishing portal, the official team did not elaborate. Currently, several details remain unknown: how many people installed the app, how many actually entered their mnemonic phrases, and whether any assets were lost have not been disclosed. The official team reiterated a bottom line: Solana Mobile will never ask you for your mnemonic phrase, nor will it require you to connect your wallet to claim an airdrop. To clarify the scope: this breach was in the app store's distribution and recommendation controls, not the Solana blockchain itself or the hardware Seed Vault being compromised. Conversely, remotely removing apps only$XPL experienced a flash crash, dropping from 0.086 to 0.069; 12 associated wallets withdrew 2.0386 million margin in advance, causing HLP to passively absorb long position losses of 556,000, but it cannot yet be confirmed that these wallets are the sellers driving the dump. The current price has returned to 0.07, with weak rebound momentum on the hourly chart and no clear reversal signal. The overall project trend is weak, with a large unlock of 228 million tokens scheduled for November 25. Bottom fishing is not recommended; during a downtrend, it is better to miss a rebound than to catch a falling knife.$BTC is celebrating wildly in the Asia-Pacific stock markets today, but you fired a shot and ran away
On Monday morning, $BTC pulled back from $76,300 to $78,145, with futures rising 1.5% in sync. After Binance reopened withdrawals, there was a net outflow of $3.64 billion, but the market did not experience a stampede sell-off, indicating that the support is still there. Next, it depends on whether Asian funds are willing to continue lifting the price at the 78,000 level; the first half of the session will provide some clues.
Platform tokens are a bit dull: $OKB is at $111, down for three consecutive days; news of OKX advancing perpetual contracts with ICE and Trade.xyz also failed to boost sentiment, as the Binance incident continues to weigh on the entire exchange sector.
Altcoins are more differentiated: $RE is at $0.37, with daily trading volume only $530,000, showing weak liquidity; the on-chain insurance narrative has not attracted funds, indicating low risk appetite for small and mid-cap tokens. $WLD is at $0.42, with World App user growth not translating into price gains, and bioinformatics privacy regulation remains a suppressing factor.
Overall, the rebound has support, but there is hesitation to chase higher; platform tokens and altcoins are each stuck in their own difficulties, making it hard to form a combined force in the short term.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 $OP
Optimism represents an important experiment in Ethereum scalability: building an ecosystem rather than simply competing for transactions. Its Superchain vision creates opportunities for multiple chains to share infrastructure and standards. However, ecosystem expansion does not automatically translate into stronger OP token demand. Governance relevance, economic value capture, and competition remain important questions.1.37 billion liquidations in 24 hours, shorts contributed the "majority"
Total liquidations across the network reached $137 million, with longs at $74.86 million and shorts at $61.94 million — the overall volume suggests shorts are dominant, but breaking it down tells a different story: $BTC short liquidations hit $23.98 million, 3.6 times that of longs; $ETH short liquidations were $16.08 million, 1.6 times that of longs. Prices are rebounding, and those betting on a decline are being liquidated layer by layer.
But shorts are not a monolith. A whale on Hyperliquid with total profits of $214 million has been heavily short throughout, opening 2,322 ETH shorts and 1,478 $ZEC shorts, with a very thick profit buffer. Its BTC short position is 76,366 and SOL short position is 94.33, both currently underwater. Another address holds 21,216 ETH shorts (about $48.62 million), with ETH priced at 2291 at the time of writing.
On one side, whales with thick profit cushions are holding positions; on the other, retail shorts with higher leverage are being liquidated. Whether this rebound is a "shakeout" of shorts or the start of a trend reversal depends on whether whales begin to take profits on their ETH and ZEC shorts — that would be the first sign of shorts loosening.
Next, watch three things:
① Whether whales start taking profits on ETH/ZEC shorts;
② After the ZEC NU7 upgrade on November 5, whether it is a "good news realization" or "good news fully priced in";
③ The November 6 nonfarm payrolls, as employment strength will directly determine if shorts have fuel for the next wave. How serious is Binance's risk this time? $BTC
The real issue worth paying attention to in the controversy surrounding Binance is not how much support people verbally express, but whether funds are still willing to stay on the exchange.
Many major holders in the crypto space at A8 and A9 levels, with asset scales ranging from tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars, have long regarded Binance as their main place for storing and trading funds. But if market confidence truly cracks, once withdrawal channels open, some large holders are very likely to immediately transfer their assets to their own cold wallets.
Therefore, the real test is not whether withdrawals can continue to be open, but whether normal and timely fund redemption can be maintained under high withdrawal demand.
Of course, limiting withdrawal amounts is not a fundamental solution and may even further exacerbate market panic. As for claims about external political pressure or personal asset guarantees, reliable evidence is needed at this point; they cannot be taken as facts directly.
I have always believed that the most important asset of an exchange is not its scale, but user trust. The FTX incident once sounded the alarm for the entire industry. Regardless of how the disputes between CZ and FTX at the time are evaluated, it is usually ordinary users who ultimately bear the risk.
Some think this is a kind of cause and effect after CZ pushed the FTX crisis back then, but the market should look at facts, not emotions.
In short: exchanges can be very large, but the security of users' assets cannot be based solely on trust. Do not treat exchanges like banks; truly owning your assets means managing them independently.$BTC $SOL $ETH These two pieces of news are not exactly positive, but Trump has already eliminated part of the extreme negative expectations, let's take a look 👇
If the Democrats take control of Congress, he will use his veto power to directly block radical crypto regulatory bills. The market's biggest fear of a "strong regulatory raid"—the worst-case scenario—has been weakened.
At the same time, he added: there may be negotiations with the Democrats later.
This statement opens up space again, meaning it’s not a total showdown or a complete ban on the opposing proposals; there is a possibility of negotiation and compromise later.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Conclusion first: After Binance reopened withdrawals, there was a net outflow of $5.8 billion within 24 hours, yet $BTC stood above 78,100 (+0.3%). This is not a bank run, it's a relocation.
① Binance self-reported withdrawals of $4.6 billion and deposits of $1 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $3.6 billion; DefiLlama's data shows $5.8 billion over 24 hours. Competitors tracked during the same period only saw a net increase of $564 million. The majority withdrawn was USDT, followed by USDC, and then BTC.
② The total supply of stablecoins across the network dropped to 297.755 billion on November 2, a 13-month low, decreasing by 4.525 billion over 7 days. Money is leaving exchanges and also leaving crypto.
③ Leverage hasn't collapsed: OKX $BTC perpetual positions decreased from 3.764 billion to 3.668 billion (-2.55%), funding rates have been positive for 8 consecutive periods, with longs still paying. Perpetual 24-hour volume was 3.01 billion, 8.8 times the spot volume of 340 million.
Additionally: THORChain suspended swaps on 10 chains due to a refund vulnerability exposed by the Ethereum reorganization; Chainalysis said this slowed hackers moving funds.
My judgment: Interpreting the "$5.8 billion outflow" as bearish is mistaking a wallet move for a run. What really deserves attention is the stablecoin supply hitting a 13-month low, indicating on-chain ammunition is thinning. What will blow up first next?The first big test for the new official is tonight's data!
Looking at the institutions' expectations, EPS is around 1.98. To be frank, this earnings report has three main points: how well the phones are selling, whether subscription services can hold steady, and whether AI can actually generate revenue.
My personal feeling is that the market is extremely harsh on tech giants right now. If profits only beat expectations by a few cents but there's no explosive AI revenue data, the stock price will most likely rollercoaster after hours. And if Apple's AI story doesn't hold up, the valuations of the entire US tech sector will be re-evaluated.
Recently, with inflation data and hacker incidents already causing anxiety, if the US stock market crashes again tonight, Bitcoin will most likely test previous lows.
Given these macro risk zones, I'm firmly staying out of the market to watch the show and definitely won't catch a falling knife. What does everyone think tonight?
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 $BEAT After considering a lot, I really didn't expect the dog whale to choose to dump the next day 😂
Those of you who listened to me and didn't enter heavy short positions should be grateful. Who would have thought the dog whale would pull up twice to take out a wave of shorts before dumping? Pump first, then dump—who can stand that? No honor among thieves.
Now that the tokens have been fully unlocked, there will be a large amount of profit-taking selling. Plus, the dog whale holds a concentrated large amount of chips, so the waterfall dump will only be a momentary event. Brothers who still want to chase the highs, please consider carefully.
I'll short first as a sign of respect.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The deadline has been extended for the fourth consecutive time by one year, and I think this is more eye-catching than just saying "delayed again." The same announcement is read differently by market watchers versus those waiting for repayment. The rest of the information in the material is briefly mentioned in one sentence: the repayment deadline is extended to October 31, 2027, and the associated wallet still holds about 34,400 BTC.
Market watchers tend to interpret the delay as short-term relief, which I can understand, but I wouldn't directly label it as positive news. Moving the deadline doesn't mean there won't be distributions before then, nor does it mean that those who receive the coins will definitely sell. Treating the administrative deadline as a selling schedule skips several steps in between.
Those waiting for repayment face a different reality: when they can get their assets back and how to arrange things afterward still lack certainty. I am more concerned about the erosion of plan credibility caused by repeated delays. The same "wait another year" can be dismissed by onlookers, but creditors have to keep their plans hanging in the balance. This difference cannot be covered up by simply saying "selling pressure is postponed."
So my judgment is: for the market, this is not solid enough positive news; for creditors, the predictability of the repayment progress is the key. Which side will you take in evaluating this delay: giving credit for "one less short-term worry" or deducting points for "creditors continue to wait"? This time, the strengthening of the RMB is different from the familiar pattern of previous years. In the past, when the US dollar strengthened, the RMB was passively under pressure. In October 2026, the US dollar index was still fluctuating between 101.6 and 102.6, having risen about 3.9% within the year, yet the RMB midpoint rate rose from the "7 era" to around 6.7. The US dollar was not weak; the RMB itself was appreciating.
The most direct driving force behind this comes from export enterprises converting foreign exchange. In the first three quarters, the goods trade surplus was 938.1 billion USD, and export companies accumulated a large amount of US dollars. In September, the bank's client foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 62.9 billion USD, with the settlement rate rising to 65.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from August. Enterprises exchange US dollars for RMB, increasing the supply of US dollars, causing the RMB to rise; the more the RMB appreciates, the more enterprises that have not yet converted foreign exchange worry about further depreciation of the US dollar, strengthening their willingness to convert, which further pushes up the exchange rate. Guan Tao, Chief Economist at Huafu Securities, believes this rebound is caused by changes in foreign exchange supply and demand due to strong exports and trade surplus. Is a 100% reserve proof really safe?
Just remember three points: it's the account at the moment of the snapshot, not real-time; having enough mainstream coins doesn't mean small coins are also sufficient; even if assets match, you still need to check if liabilities match.
PoR is for auditing, not insurance.
Take a stance: when choosing an exchange, what do you look at first—A Does it have reserve proof, B Can you withdraw anytime?
$BTC Intel plummeted nearly 30%, AMD also fell more than 10%, what’s going on with the semiconductor sector?
This heatmap of US tech stocks looks quite grim, with the semiconductor sector almost entirely down.
I believe there are three signals worth noting in this round of declines.
First, the market is starting to worry about PC demand. Although Intel’s quarterly results were not bad, the market is not satisfied with the subsequent guidance. If the PC market recovery falls short of expectations, both chip manufacturers and OEMs will be affected, which also explains why AMD, Dell, and Qualcomm all fell sharply together.
Second, the AI sector is also undergoing a valuation adjustment. Nvidia dropped 4.21%, Broadcom fell 5.48%, but AMD’s decline exceeded 10%. This indicates that capital is beginning to diverge in growth expectations for different companies; the previous trend where any AI-related stock would rise is becoming more selective.
Finally, AMD’s upcoming earnings report is very critical.
I currently lean toward AMD slightly beating expectations this time. The data center business is the main support, with EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerator cards expected to continue contributing growth. However, given the overall pressure on the sector, the market may not only focus on revenue and EPS but also pay attention to gross margin, data center revenue, and next quarter’s guidance.
AMD will release its earnings on November 3rd. If the results meet expectations, it might bring a round of recovery to the entire semiconductor sector; if not, short-term selling pressure may continue to be released.
#非農來襲，12月升息會否生變？ BlackRock's IBIT alone dumped $233.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC followed with $201.4 million, and ARKB added another $129.5 million, together accounting for 88% of the outflow that day. Ironically, the first four days of this week saw a net inflow of $441 million, but one day wiped it all out and then some, resulting in a weekly net outflow of $203 million. The annual net inflow just passed $1 billion but was slashed by 63.6%, with the total size falling below $100 billion to only $98.14 billion. The ETH ETF also saw an outflow of $155.9 million on the same day, the largest since October 7. Yet the spot market didn't crash: CoinGecko shows BTC's current price at $78,052, up 0.26% in 24 hours, ranging between $77,619 and $78,650. I think this isn't bearish sentiment but a month-end portfolio adjustment coinciding with hacker aftershocks—redemptions concentrated in three products, not a full-scale retreat. The key levels are here: the 50-day moving average at $80,307 above, which must be surpassed to confirm a rebound; and the 100-day moving average at $77,831 below, which if held means "fragile but not dead." The invalidation conditions are also clear: if it falls below $77,831 and fails to recover, my "concentrated redemption" theory is void; if it rises above $80,307, then $85,000 is not just a pipe dream. Which side do you choose: is this $643 million a real institutional exit or just a one-time month-end portfolio adjustment? $BTC $ETH #BitcoinETF #BinanceHackerAftershock The Bitcoin inventory of publicly listed companies should not automatically become a valuation bonus. In my view, this news serves as a clearer reminder of the “coin hoarding narrative” than an indicator of the coin price.
According to PANews citing CoinPost, the Nasdaq-listed company Next Technology Holding's board unanimously approved a resolution to sell about 5,833 BTC or use them as collateral, aiming to reduce holding risk and improve liquidity. The resolution takes effect from October 30, with the specific sale quantity and timing undecided, and it does not mean all will be sold.
I see companies like this as separating “how many coins they hold” from “how much cash they need.” Coins on the books are assets but cannot replace cash arrangements. If the market prices the company solely based on the number of coins held, then once the company needs to liquidate assets, the previously favored inventory could become an uncertainty in valuation. This is my speculation, not an indication that the company is already facing financial difficulties.
Collateralization does not eliminate risk either. If collateral is chosen, the interest rate, collateral ratio, and additional guarantee conditions will determine the cost of this liquidity; if selling is chosen, it will change the subsequent Bitcoin price exposure. These two paths cannot be summarized under the same “negative” label.
I will continue to focus on the use of funds and execution conditions: how the company manages its balance sheet carries more weight than the size of the coin holdings it displays.I've always been puzzled: why do those prediction markets often report hundreds of billions in trading volume, yet I've never actually seen a single real person in them.
In October, the total transaction volume was $123.3 billion, breaking the hundred-billion mark for the first time, with Kalshi alone at $98.2 billion. It sounds like the whole world is betting.
But it turns out the algorithm works like this: a contract priced at 1 cent is recorded as a full $1 payout in the transaction volume. And 70% of the trading volume comes from football parlays, with most contracts priced under 1 cent.
So it's not that there's a lot of money, but that the accounting method is lenient. The actual cash running through might only be a fraction of that number.
$BTC contracts have exceeded $3 billion for two consecutive weeks, and that part is real. Excitement and scale, it turns out, are two different things.123.3 billion USD. In October, the total trading volume of prediction markets surpassed 100 billion for the first time, increasing 53.9% month-over-month, with 642.9 million transactions. The numbers look impressive, but we need to break them down first.
The structure is extremely uneven: Kalshi alone accounts for 98.2 billion, making up 80%; Polymarket has 20.2 billion with 148 million transactions. It seems like a landslide, but the two use different measurement standards.
The key lies in the accounting method: Kalshi counts trading volume by full payout of 1 USD per contract. A contract worth 1 cent, actually paid 0.01 USD, is recorded as 1 USD. 67.6% of its monthly trading volume is football parlays, most contracts are less than 1 cent. This method inflates small amounts by two orders of magnitude.
So the 98.2 billion is not 98.2 billion cash flowing, but nominal payout scale. Comparing it to 20.2 billion is comparing accounting methods, not market position.
The clean signal is in another line: both platforms’ crypto contracts have exceeded 3 billion USD for two consecutive weeks, corresponding to event contracts on $BTC and $ETH. Prediction markets are becoming another derivatives venue for crypto.
Conclusion: The sector is growing, but the 123.3 billion figure is inflated. Focus on the 3 billion line, don’t be fooled by the rounded numbers. The system isn't broken; it's the hand that acted first.
The account only has 23,000 U left, losing 20,000 to 30,000 U in a day.
The lost money isn't from the system, but from those few manual trades.
How it used to go:
Following the system, most trades could be closed the same day.
In the same market conditions, it was also closed before.
What's different now:
In the same account, the system can make profits, but manual trades lose.
The difference isn't the market, but the hand placing the orders.
Going further, manual trades and system trades mixed in one account,
making it impossible to tell whose drawdown is whose, and the review can't find the mistake.
The system controls position size but can't control the urge to add more.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$ZEC I personally am optimistic about AMD's upcoming earnings report, leaning towards a slight beat of expectations, mainly for three reasons.
First, looking at revenue, the market currently expects about $13.09 billion, while AMD's previous guidance was $13 billion ± $300 million. That means the market expectation hasn't yet reached the upper end of the guidance, so as long as actual delivery is slightly better, there's a chance to exceed expectations.
Second is the data center business. AMD's revenue in this segment mainly comes from EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerator cards. Many people focus on large AI chip orders, but the growth of server CPUs is also worth noting. Last quarter, data center revenue grew 107% year-over-year, and management expects growth to accelerate further in the second half of the year. I believe this part of the business still has solid support.
Finally, profit margins. Last quarter, revenue grew 13% quarter-over-quarter, non-GAAP expenses only increased by 8%, and operating margin rose from 25% to 27%. This indicates that while revenue grew, expenses did not increase proportionally. If gross margin can remain stable this quarter, the profit side may perform better than revenue.
#AMD財報前瞻：Helios AI系統商業化進展 First, consider the worst-case scenario. Seeing the transaction volume hit a record, my initial reaction is: if transfers are delayed under high load, can those rushing to move funds hold up? This is my stress test, not a statement that the chain has already encountered problems.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the TRON chain has surpassed 16 billion cumulative transactions, processing an average of 11.56 million transactions daily. My judgment is that this indicates the scale of usage but is still insufficient to prove lower risk, and certainly cannot be directly used as a basis for asset valuation.
⚠️ I will watch two blind spots: the number of transactions does not disclose transaction amounts or user distribution, so it’s impossible to judge whether demand is dispersed; daily average data also doesn’t reveal performance during peak times, so if business is concentrated, the average might mask congestion risks.
What ordinary people can do for risk control is to clearly define in advance the duration of fund occupation and the maximum loss they can bear. I would place these two boundaries ahead of the bustling data.$BTC is oscillating between 77,000 and 78,800. The real short-term watershed lies around 78,600 to 79,500. If it can't break above this range, the current rebound can only be considered a weak recovery.
Why can't it rally? The momentum is still heavy❗️
The funding rate hasn't turned negative yet; the bulls are still paying to hold their positions. Last week, the ETF saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, and spot buyers are on the sidelines.
On one hand, leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out; on the other, new money hasn't come in. The main players won't actively push the price up at this level.
Looking at the liquidation map, the near-term gravity is clearly downward. There's a strong long liquidation zone near 76,090 below, while from 78,056 to 79,569 there is short fuel, but for the price to really rise, it must first absorb the selling pressure around 78,600 to 79,500.
This week's macro schedule is also packed: November 3rd midterm elections, November 6th non-farm payrolls.
My personal view is that $BTC will range between 76,000 and 79,500 in the short term. If it breaks down with volume below 76,000, it will head to the lower liquidation zone.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $AAVE
Aave has frozen tBTC reserves worth $136 million on Ethereum. My first reaction was that this would hit hard, after all, it involves collateral in the lending pool.
Actual market situation: AAVE dropped from 138 to 132.96, closed at 134.07, down 2.9%. The hourly candle that dropped had a volume of 1,971 tokens, worth a couple hundred thousand dollars; in the following two hours, volume dropped to a fraction, and the price climbed back on its own.
Perpetual positions are only $15.75 million, with a fee rate of +0.01%. No one is panicking, no one is bottom fishing, there’s just no one.
The freeze is to stop the bleeding, not the wound. The problem with tBTC lies with the issuer, not the Aave contract, but the market’s habit of running first can’t be changed. What really needs watching is whether other pools follow by lowering LTV, that would drain liquidity. At this scale, I’m too lazy to adjust my position, maybe I’m just lazy.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The morning session was still pushing higher, but OKB turned red directly in the afternoon—Is today's "rebound" a real recovery or just another bull trap?
📉 $BTC (77,953): On the surface, it holds above 78,000, but underneath, leverage is propping it up while spot positions are withdrawing. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, while derivatives exposure continued to rise. Spot buying can't keep up, so the foundation of the rebound is weak; the lower Bollinger band at 77,300 is the last short-term cover.
🔴 $ETH (2,279): The most divided asset in the market. ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since listing, with traditional funds continuously withdrawing every day. Yet the price stubbornly hasn't broken the previous low, while RSI is only at a weak 34.8. Institutions are selling, the market is holding on—this divergence lasting longer means the eventual breakdown will be even more severe.
🟡 $OKB (112.87): Led the CeFi sector with a 2.72% gain in the morning session but turned red and dropped over 1% in the afternoon. The compliance benefits from OKX partnering with ICE are overwhelming, but under the "front-run and cash out" rhythm, short-term funds have no patience to wait for approvals to finalize; the arrival of good news instead becomes a window for profit-taking. Good news without a price increase is the biggest bad news.
Summary: BTC is propped up by leverage, ETH is holding on through divergence, and OKB is hanging on by its story— all three are barely holding. Which one do you think will break first? Place your bets in the comments👇
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Nonfarm payrolls are about to be released, with the market focus directly on whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in December. The October FOMC meeting remained on hold, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4%, but there was a split with two votes in favor of a rate hike, and the statement emphasized the economy's "strong expansion" and persistently high inflation. After the meeting, the market still regarded a 25 basis point rate hike in December as the baseline scenario, with the implied probability once rising above 80%.
The current labor market is in a "low hiring, low layoff" state. The previous nonfarm payrolls (September) increased by only 29,000, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.2%. The market expects the upcoming October nonfarm payrolls to be around 60,000, with wage growth being a key observation point. If both new employment and wages are relatively strong, it will reinforce the inflation stickiness logic (especially combined with high oil prices), likely further locking in the probability of a rate hike in December; if employment continues to weaken significantly and wages cool down, it may lower rate hike expectations and provide room for a pause.
Waller has recently expressed a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for more data and has already indicated future adjustments to the frequency of FOMC meetings. In the short term, nonfarm payrolls, subsequent CPI, and oil price trends will jointly determine the December path. For assets, strong nonfarm payrolls benefit the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing risk asset resilience; weak nonfarm payrolls may bring a brief respite. It is recommended to focus on the resonance of three indicators: new employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, rather than a single figure. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC
From 77600 to 78866, BTC only moved this much in one day today, with a volatility of 1.6%.
South Korea held an emergency meeting, requiring local exchanges to increase the proportion of cold wallets, add reserve funds, and inspect the hot wallet withdrawal approval and signature mechanisms one by one. The cause was Binance's hot wallet holding 6.3 billion.
I originally thought this kind of news would shake the market. But 77987 stuck there, up 0.13% in 24h, perpetual fee rate 0.0086%, open interest 2.6 billion USD, basically unchanged.
Raising the cold wallet ratio really changes the withdrawal speed—the approval for large withdrawals takes time, which can be critical during rapid market moves. I won't guess the direction. With more news like this, the on-chain balance of exchange hot wallets will gradually decrease; watching the data is more useful than watching the price.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #Apple's new CEO receives the first report card for iPhone 18 Nonfarm payrolls are coming, will the December rate hike really change? The market roughly still treats the rate hike as the baseline, with a probability between 70% and 80%, but it’s not set in stone. The October meeting was already paused, and some voted against continuing the hike, indicating internal disagreement. Chair Wash hasn’t ruled anything out either, emphasizing that data still needs to be watched.
Last month’s nonfarm was only 29,000, clearly weak, so market expectations this time are low, around 60,000. If this number significantly beats expectations and wages don’t fall, the probability of a rate hike will likely rise again, causing the dollar and short-term US Treasuries to strengthen, and risk assets to suffer more; if there’s another big miss, or even a rise in unemployment, calls to pause in December will quickly grow louder, possibly leading to a short-term breather.
In practice, this kind of data often causes swings both ways. It’s recommended not to heavily bet on direction yet, focusing on three key points: whether new jobs exceed expectations, whether hourly wages cool down, and whether unemployment unexpectedly rises. Also keep a close eye on oil prices and subsequent inflation data, because the rate hike logic is still largely supported by energy prices. Nonfarm payrolls are just a key piece, not the final answer. After the data is released, watch how the market pricing changes—it’s more stable than betting in advance. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ ETH is only $7 away from a whale liquidation! Even more dangerous is that institutional funds are also retreating.
The most concerning aspect of the current market is the simultaneous pressure on leverage risk and spot demand. According to on-chain monitoring data, a whale holding long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL is currently at an unrealized loss of about $46 million, with an ETH liquidation price around $2253. Based on a snapshot price of $2260, the liquidation threshold is only about 0.3% away. Once triggered, it could amplify short-term selling pressure.
ETF data is also not optimistic: In October, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $1.607 billion, with ETHA outflows of $1.421 billion, accounting for about 88%; FETH bucked the trend with a net inflow of $36 million. The BTC spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $643 million on October 30.
My assessment: For BTC, focus on the battle between $77,000 and $78,000; for ETH, be cautious of liquidation chain reactions; for SOL, wait for improved capital absorption. Whale positions do not equal market bottoms, and ETF outflows do not necessarily mean a market crash. Before the November 6 non-farm payroll release, controlling leverage and waiting for confirmation is more important than blindly bottom-fishing. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ZEC The bearish side on the $ZEC market has become too lazy even to place orders.
The giant whale shorts directly dumped 186 million U, and the bulls' small amount of funds on the market are too weak even to cause a spike.
Above are all trapped positions and the main base of shorts who bought high and are stuck, while below there are hardly any decent buy orders supporting the price.
With this position structure, any weak rebound only provides liquidity to the shorts; the downward creeping trend searching for a bottom won't stop anytime soon.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$BTC keeps pushing faith on Twitter every day, but when there's no cash flow, they still have to dump to exchange for USD.
MicroStrategy's main business in the financial report has directly regressed, propped up by unrealized gains on the books. To pay dividends and buy back shares, they forcibly dumped $432 million in spot BTC, and even the CFO has fled.
The funniest thing is that some still think institutions only buy and never sell. This glaring spot selling pressure is already right on top. Even the largest perpetual buyers have started digging into their pockets to cut losses and cash out. What can hold this position firm?
#BTC
$BTC
👇Is there still a chance after the $XPL flash crash?
Yesterday, $XPL experienced a flash crash, dropping sharply from around 0.086 to about 0.069 in a short time.
What’s noteworthy about this event is that out of 16 related wallets, 12 withdrew approximately $2,038,600 in margin in advance, causing Hyperliquid's HLP to passively take on a large number of long positions, ultimately losing about $556,000.
However, it cannot yet be directly concluded that these wallets were the ones dumping the coin, since $XPL had already experienced some decline before the first liquidation.
Looking at the current 1-hour chart, although the price has rebounded to around 0.07, the rebound after the sharp drop is weakening, and there is no clear short-term reversal yet.
Personally, I do not recommend bottom-fishing. Since $XPL was listed, its overall trend has not been good. Although there have been several rebounds, it has never entered a sustained uptrend.
Moreover, there is a significant unlock scheduled for November 25, approximately 228 million tokens.
For this kind of asset, it’s better to miss the rebound than to easily catch a coin in a downtrend.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ @OKX中文 November is not a bull-bear showdown, but a concentrated release of multiple risks! What BTC fears most is not negative news, but repeated shifts in expectations.
Don't treat the midterm elections, non-farm payrolls, and CPI as catalysts for a one-sided market. The real danger lies in multiple variables simultaneously changing capital expectations, causing repeated market repricing and amplified volatility. In October, the Nasdaq 100 cumulatively dropped over 5.8%, with more than $2 trillion in market value at risk of evaporation. AI capital expenditure returns are also undergoing market scrutiny.
The next few key dates are especially critical: November 3rd US midterm elections and JOLTS job openings, 6th non-farm payrolls, 10th CPI, and 17th Nvidia earnings. Strong employment and sticky inflation may push interest rate expectations higher; cooling data would favor risk appetite recovery.
My strategy is clear: Do not chase BTC on news-driven rallies; focus on key supports and ETF capital flows; be cautious of amplified volatility in ETH when the market weakens, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing due to large declines; although XAUT has gold backing, guard against gold price pullbacks and premium fluctuations. Keep light positions and strict stop-losses in the short term; do not bet on one-sided moves. In November, first preserve principal, then wait for opportunities. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ I have fully bet 16000xp on yes
Why yes?
1. Historical habit: Apple has always preferred "conservative guidance" in its earnings reports, and the reports often easily beat consensus expectations; big tech giants generally have a tradition of managing expectations.
2. Optimistic fundamentals: The market prices in new iPhone products, service business, and incremental growth from foldable screens, believing this quarter's profits are resilient.
3. But it's not blindly bullish: It hasn't surged to 85c or 90c, indicating that capital is also wary of risks: rising storage costs, slowing iPhone growth, and possibly disappointing guidance next quarter. So nearly 30% is reserved for "explosive disappointments below expectations."
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 The overall ecosystem attention of $ATOM is still on fees and staking. Cosmos's tech stack is inherently agent infrastructure, but the economic narrative remains stuck at the stage where the chain equals a toll station. This mismatch between the two might be the biggest opportunity for this ecosystem.I feel that there is still quite a bit of capital on the sidelines in the market, not truly leaving the crypto market.
BTC's performance during this period has surprised me a bit. Despite the Binance hack incident and a series of negative news, the price did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, altcoins like $LIT, $PUMP, $ZRO, and NEAR have started to show some strength.
Concerns about the AI bubble have been suppressing the crypto market for several months. During this time, AI stocks have been rising steadily, while the crypto market has been sideways for a long time. I believe some of the pessimistic expectations have already been priced in.
If the heat around AI stocks cools down later, and the crypto market can still maintain strength, then the funds originally chasing AI assets might well turn their attention back to Crypto.
What I am more focused on is the market environment after the midterm elections. If uncertainty gradually fades, off-market funds may look for opportunities again.
The market doesn't need all news to turn positive; what really matters is that despite continuous negative news, prices never fall. When bad news becomes increasingly unable to push the market down, I am actually willing to remain somewhat optimistic about the future trend.$XAU gold rebounded today, driven by three important reasons!
1. The previous decline was too large, and rebound demand is gradually being released.
In October, gold cumulatively corrected by nearly 10%, with a single-day drop of about 3.6% on October 30 alone. The continuous decline forced many investors to stop losses and exit, but as selling pressure eased, some funds began to buy at lows, and shorts also needed to cover, naturally leading to a recovery rally in gold.
2. US real interest rates have fallen, easing pressure on gold.
Recently, the US 10-year real yield dropped to about 2.60%. The decline in real interest rates means the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, which is positive for gold and supports the price rebound.
3. Gold's own buying power is starting to strengthen.
Today, the US dollar index was flat or slightly stronger, yet gold still moved upward. This indicates that the driving force behind the gold price increase may not be just the dollar factor; gold itself is attracting funds, with low-level buying gradually emerging.
This gold rebound is both a recovery after overselling and driven by falling interest rates and capital inflows.
However, a rebound does not equal a reversal. Whether it can continue to strengthen depends on whether buying momentum has staying power and if key levels can truly hold. The more volatile the market, the more important it is to stay clear-headed and not be easily swayed by short-term fluctuations. $SOL $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I can only make money within my understanding and lose money beyond it!
Although I have been bearish all along, Monday's small rebound still taught me a lesson!
I think being bearish is not a problem,
I just feel that my understanding is still insufficient.
Because since there was a big drop last Friday,
I didn't think about closing my short positions,
which means I wanted to see a continued drop on Monday.
But how much logic is there for Monday to continue falling?
Here, I didn't consider that the poor liquidity on Saturday and Sunday would gradually ease the fear.
In other words,
although everyone was very fearful last Friday,
and sold very decisively,
and stopped losses very decisively,
leading to a rapid plunge in the market and the entire market.
This plunge was definitely caused by emotional contagion,
and this emotion,
I was still betting it would continue on Monday,
but I didn't think about the comforting effect of the weekend on psychology.
After understanding that emotional stabilization makes the market less fearful,
I then understood today's rise.
So,
for some profitable short positions,
I could have completely placed a hedging order over the weekend,
but I didn't.
Therefore, I can only make money within my understanding.
Lose money beyond my understanding.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOXL Is it a public chain or a “zombie”? CORE ecosystem's daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars—has the countdown to zero begun?
As of November 2, CORE is priced around $0.013–0.014, down over 99% from its all-time high, with a circulating market cap of approximately $12 million to $14 million, having fallen into the high-risk small-cap range.
It is not without narrative. CORE focuses on BTCFi and once attracted funds with the pitch of “Bitcoin PoS layer + EVM compatibility + buyback and burn.” But the problem is: the value of a public chain does not rely on whitepapers but on real users and on-chain transactions.
The crash began in March 2026 with the ecological protocol Colend’s liquidation cascade, followed by an incident in September where validators received excessive tokens, causing multiple exchanges to suspend deposits and withdrawals, further damaging trust. Currently, the ecosystem’s TVL is sluggish, there are no hit applications, tokens continue unlocking, and rebounds are repeatedly crushed by sell pressure.
The claim in the headline that "daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars" should be treated cautiously: some data sources still show 24-hour trading volume at the million-dollar level, but certain trading pairs within the ecosystem indeed have extremely poor liquidity, where even small sell orders can push prices to new lows.
CORE may not hit zero immediately, but it is already in a “semi-zombie” state. It serves as a warning to all investors: in the public chain arena, chains without real capital and users will also slowly bleed out.Don't rush to take "big players bottom-fishing" as a reversal signal; this wave feels more like testing the waters 🌙 Do they really think the bottom has been reached? When I saw that batch of disclosed positions last night, my first reaction wasn't excitement but a bit of a laugh: Tony bought about $4 million in BTC plus $9 million in QQQ, Vida added about $1 million in CQQQ, Boss Shi placed a long-term buy order for 150 BTC at an average price of around $76,700, and Pickle Cat plans to allocate ETH within 72 hours. Spanning US tech stocks, Asian tech assets, and crypto, this portfolio itself speaks volumes—they're not betting on a single coin but on an overall shift in risk appetite. ✨ But there's a misconception too: many see the list and assume "smart money has reached consensus." Actually, it's quite the opposite. According to WhaleRadar data up to November 2, whales' BTC short positions still significantly exceed their long positions, meaning those publicly announcing buys are buying, but hidden positions are still hedging. The crowd psychology is typical now: on one hand, FOMO fearing missing the rebound; on the other, hesitating to add positions, with narrative fatigue written in every group. My own understanding is that this batch of buy orders truly signals a slight shift in capital preference—from pure risk aversion toward tentative exploration of tech growth and crypto, rather than trend confirmation. For BTC, it means the 76k to 78k range is starting to be tested as psychological support; for ETH, the key is whether it can stabilize in sync, otherwise the risk appetite for altcoins will struggle to genuinely recover. The bullish path is clear: as long as laterThe $ETH Binance hacker incident seems to have stabilized for now,
with no continuous stampede occurring,
rebounding for three consecutive days,
the market has fully digested this negative news,
but trading volume has clearly shrunk,
mainstream coins $BTC and $ETH lack sufficient volume,
additionally, there is the issue of profit-taking in the AI sector,
the earnings season has revealed a huge gap between capital expenditures and cash flow returns,
combined with high interest rates raising financing costs,
further intensifying market panic,
it is expected that the rebound will stop tomorrow and the decline will continue. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Folks, recently everyone should have felt that the market has been quite exhausting. Whether institutions or big players, most are choosing to wait and see now, not daring to act rashly. On one hand, the US election is coming soon with too many uncertainties, so funds don't want to risk betting on a direction.
On top of that, with the BiNan fund theft incident, market panic hasn't completely dissipated. Although the withdrawal issues have been resolved, it still serves as a reminder to those playing in this space that no matter how strong an exchange is, without a solid backing, there is always a risk of theft, including okx.
There are no major positive catalysts recently. BTC and ETH mainly are moving in a back-and-forth oscillating pattern. Even Buffett would lose a few million USD and leave. So absolutely avoid heavy positions or going all-in on any direction.
For intraday focus, watch Ethereum closely. The 2230 area is a key strong support, with resistance around 2320. You can try a defensive long position with a stop loss at 2245.
By the way, let's talk about HYPE. Logically, Binance's incident should be somewhat beneficial to HYPE, since its narrative is self-custody DEX, which is its advantage. But the market actually went down. Why?
The core ICE compliance narrative is stuck in this sensitive election period, plus Paradigm unstaked 2.55 million HYPE a few days ago, making market sentiment very sensitive, so it pulled back a bit. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？