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#Anthropic营收暴增1127%，能否支撑IPO高估值？ US Treasury yields remain high and stable, creating a clear divergence in internal fund allocation among risk assets. The continuous absorption of funds by the US dollar's risk-free yield has prevented ETH from holding buyers at the 3000 and 2500 levels, pushing it steadily closer to 2000. Its correlation with BTC and the Nasdaq is just that—a correlation—and cannot be directly interpreted as a unidirectional interest rate suppression trend. In the market, those who can consistently secure returns always follow the 20/80 distribution. The pace of institutional fund withdrawal differs between BTC and ETH; ETH is more sensitive to liquidity easing and only has a better chance of seeing capital inflows if US Treasury yields continue to decline. This judgment will become invalid if CPI data rises again and rate hike expectations reignite. Open your position list, check the preset stop-loss level for this long position, and confirm that the pending order has enough tolerance space from the current price. $ETH $BTC $SOL Today is the U.S. midterm election, and many people are itching to bet on a direction to ride the volatility. As someone who has played cards for years, my advice is the opposite: during weeks packed with such events, top players don't raise their bets, they reduce them. Count the events this week—today's election, AMD's earnings tonight, possible geopolitical moves on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll on Friday. Four or five independent binary events crammed together, any one of which can break your position. The less clear the information, the smaller the pot should be controlled; this is the most basic survival rule at the card table. Real money isn't made at the moment of the event; it's made when you have a clear edge, not when you're flipping a coin. If you can't see clearly, don't bet big. Earnings Report Reveal Night: $AMD, $CRCL, Apple — Who Is the Most at Risk Under High Expectations?📉 The real test of earnings season isn’t whether companies "beat or miss expectations," but whether the stock price has already priced in the good news in advance😅. AMD, CRCL, and Apple stand respectively in the AI computing power, stablecoin finance, and consumer tech sectors, each facing different challenges. First, look at AMD🔥. The market is focused on data center growth, AI chip deliveries, gross margin, and next quarter guidance. AI demand has plenty of stories but lacks the speed of converting orders into revenue; as long as guidance isn’t aggressive enough, the valuation might take a hit first. Next, consider CRCL💵. The key isn’t that the "stablecoin space is large," but the circulation scale of USDC, reserve income, distribution costs, and profit margins. Activity in the crypto space can boost usage, but interest rate cuts may compress reserve income, so growth in scale doesn’t necessarily mean shareholder returns grow in tandem. Apple🍎 has already reported; next, we watch iPhone demand, service revenue, gross margin, and whether AI investments can support the valuation. A strong earnings report is just the first hurdle; holding the stock price is the second. My biggest concern about "winning on earnings but losing on stock price" is Apple: expectations are highest, valuation is not low, and the AI narrative is unfolding slowly😬. AMD is next, while CRCL has more flexibility but a more complex profit chain. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 A reminder for those obsessed with the "rate cut bull": not all central banks are on your side. Last night, ECB's Nagel kept sending signals — September inflation pressure is higher than expected and approaching an adverse scenario; if energy prices get out of control, it will trigger widespread inflation, and a rate hike in December is very likely. On one hand, US Treasuries are racing ahead with rate cut expectations, pushing yields down; on the other hand, Europe is seriously discussing rate hikes. This policy divergence itself is noise that risk assets dislike the most. What's even more critical is that the term "energy inflation" hasn't been crossed out yet. As long as it remains on the table, the so-called script of continuous rate cuts and massive liquidity flooding isn't as solid as everyone thinks. Don't mistake the first rate cut as the starting gun for a bull market. The Middle East card might really be played this week: The US military plans to strike Iran as early as Wednesday, right after the midterm elections. There are already three aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East, and the window is very short, with one having to return to port after the beginning of the month. My cold water to pour is—if it really breaks out, don’t reflexively buy $BTC as a safe haven. Retail investors’ muscle memory tightens and they want to buy safe-haven assets, but the market in recent years has torn up that textbook: it’s not digital gold, it’s a high-beta cousin of Nasdaq. When risk sentiment contracts, it’s the first to get hit, not where funds flee to. If you really want to hedge risk, focus on US Treasuries and gold. Geopolitical events are risk events, not reasons to increase positions.$UNI UNI is ridiculously strong at the 6.8 level. The spot gap left by the hacker's dump forces the victims to rigidly buy back, effectively turning them into the biggest obvious long positions on the chart. With nearly $40 million hole right there, the bears can't push the price down despite their efforts; all sell orders at the bottom are completely eaten up. The chips are all scattered, and the bears stubbornly hold at this level, always at risk of being blasted off by this rigid demand buying. #UNI $UNI 👇AMD is releasing its earnings report after the market closes tonight, marking the first real reveal in the AI sector this week. A quick reminder: don't treat earnings night as a directional bet. Good numbers don't necessarily mean a rise, and a single negative guidance comment can drag down the entire chip sector. I've always said, what's going to collapse this round isn't profits, but the financing chain and valuations. No matter how solid the fundamentals are, even with memory shortages forecasted until 2028, stock prices have already peaked ahead of profits. This is a classic late-stage bubble move—good news is fully priced in, bad news gets amplified. The chip sector is a lever that will shake tonight, and high-beta risk assets like $BTC often wobble first. I'd rather take a light position to watch the earnings than go all-in pre-market betting on direction. What I fear most on the operating table is the sudden silence of the monitor, but even more so its noise—ventricular premature beats are not the cause, the real danger is the rupturing plaque in the coronary artery. The macro data before us is the market's coronary angiography. The crash is just the monitor alarm; what I need to find is which end of the hemodynamic perfusion pressure is failing; emotional treatment never saves myocardium. The manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October, above the expected 54.7, superficially like a temporary increase in cardiac output; but the price sub-index remains high at 75.2, the inflammation indicator has not subsided. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, this is not a cure, more like temporarily stabilizing perfusion under extracorporeal circulation. The core personal consumption expenditure price index year-on-year in September was 3.1%, a low-grade fever that won't go away; the market assigns about a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which is a high-probability event in the preoperative risk assessment. The October employment report will be released on November 6 at 13:30 UTC, with nonfarm payroll additions expected around 60,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, this is the next angiography determining the nature of the plaque. Good numbers don’t equal good microcirculation; increased cardiac output may just be compensatory tachycardia. When I look at employment data, I don’t just look at surface numbers; I look at myocardial perfusion and coronary blood flow reserve. If the 60,000 increase is accompanied by sticky wages and high price sub-index, interest rate expectations will rise like afterload surging, the dollar will withdraw perfusion from risk assets, US Treasury yields will raise aortic pressure, and tokenized US stock assets like $xMETA will show arrhythmia first. If data is cold, it should not be misjudged as myocardial recovery; it may just be a blood pressure illusion caused by insufficient volume; what really matters is whether core inflation inflammation factors fall, whether financial conditions show perfusion pressure decline, and whether risk appetite returns from shock to stable rhythm. $xMETA is not an independent heart; it shares a circulatory system with US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar. US Treasury yields are aortic pressure, the dollar is systemic vascular resistance, risk appetite is myocardial contractility; any severe fluctuation in any of these will manifest as arrhythmia in token prices. My judgment is straightforward: if this data only improves employment numbers without improving inflation inflammation, the market is just shifting from hypotension to high metabolic oxygen consumption, increasing myocardial ischemia risk; only if the price sub-index and core inflation fall synchronously can we talk about plaque stability. Currently, these vital signs show preload hanging on expectations, afterload propped by interest rates, acid-base balance not corrected; every rebound on the monitor could be reperfusion injury. The defibrillator pads are already charged. #usjobsreportinfocus A 96 percentage point year-over-year revenue increase is like a soldier already having reached the opponent's baseline; but the total new contract value only moved by six percentage points — this is not an upgrade, it's a signal that the king is pinned down. Looking first at the white side's offensive: Palantir's Q3 revenue grew 96% year-over-year, U.S. commercial revenue surged 148%, surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time, and the full-year guidance was raised again. In the middle game, this is called continuous initiative: capturing pieces, checking the king, forcing the king to move. Spectators can easily judge the position as advantageous. But a grandmaster not only looks at the pieces already captured but also at whether the subsequent forces can be deployed. The total contract value only increased by six points, which is the overlooked open line: revenue is the realized tactic, new signed contracts are the troop source for the next round. If the troop source can't keep up, today's impressive captures may become isolated pieces tomorrow. More crucial is the pre-match pricing. Since July, the stock price has risen 55 points, meaning the opponent has already factored your winning odds into the opening odds. High expectations are not a moat but a handicap: every move must be precise. A 96% growth rate only maintains the position and is insufficient to checkmate valuation concerns. The market is now focusing not on the revenue line but on whether growth can transmit from signed revenue to new contracts; once this transmission chain stalls, the king on the open line will be exposed. In my notation book, the most dangerous position is never the opponent's strong attack but when you think you've already won while only one rook remains undeployed in the rear. Next, consider $xLLY, this tokenized U.S. stock piece. Its linkage is not a straight rook but more like a knight moving in an L-shape: the underlying stock sentiment, pre-market odds, token premium, and liquidity discount all constrain each other. The underlying stock surges due to high expectations, and the token side often amplifies optimism first; but once the total contract value dark line is repriced, the premium contraction will be steeper than the stock pullback. The endgame here doesn't depend on who shouts louder but on who can maintain the exchange order on the differently colored squares. Position management is the same game: the rear cannot advance alone, the troop chain must not break, and the take-profit line must be drawn in advance like a sacrifice line; only when the market converts high expectations into new signed contracts can true force coordination occur. The real checkmate is not on the revenue line but on the nearly unmoved horizontal line of new signed contracts; whoever takes 96 as a winning position hasn't seen that their king still hangs on the open line. #PalantirQ3Growth96% 🚨 BITCOIN MAY SWEEP 70,000 DOLLARS BEFORE A STRONG RISE $BTC may show a final liquidity sweep as the market fluctuates after the US midterm elections. Scenario: - 70,000–72,000 dollars → important FVG zone - Holding 70,000–75,000 dollars → may form a bottom - Reclaim structure → recovery to 80,000–84,000 dollars - Surpass 87,300 dollars → heading towards 97,800 dollars If BTC sweeps the bottom then bounces strongly, this could be a Bear Trap before a new upward phase.Early Monday snapshot: BTC 78,000 | SOL 94 | BICO 0.015 | BEAT 0.10 | PENGU 0.007 $BTC 78,145 📊 Bounced from 76,300 over the weekend, with futures up 1.5%. But volume didn't expand on the rebound, so this looks like shorts covering rather than real bottom-fishing. Whether 78,000 holds at the open depends on Asian funds following through. $SOL 94 Still hasn't reclaimed 100 after losing it. On-chain data is recovering, but price isn't following, which is the most frustrating setup: better fundame Apple's quarterly report is like a newly topped-out tower: the facade is still rising, but the core's profit margin has already been cracked by the rising cost of rebar. Q4 revenue was $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year; the phone business was about $57.6 billion, up 17%. On paper, it looks like three more floors have been steadily added and topped out; the $2.10 earnings per share include about $0.05 from tariff refunds, which is equivalent to the net profit height propped up by temporary scaffolding—once removed, the true height of the main structure is revealed. More critically, the next quarter's revenue guidance of 7% to 10% growth is not weak, but the gross margin guidance of 45% to 46% is below expectations. Rising prices for memory chips and increased costs for smart services are squeezing the load-bearing walls from both the foundation and the electromechanical systems. In construction, the worst fear is not an unimpressive facade but structural redundancy being thinned layer by layer: revenue is the number of floors, gross margin is the cross-section of the core tube; one-time refunds are decorative lines, the cost curve is the rebar reinforcement ratio. The financial report is just the completion drawing; the cost structure is the geological survey report. The linkage of the tokenized US stock $xSNDK cannot be judged solely by the wind pressure on Apple's revenue facade; it must consider how the downward revision of profit margin guidance transmits through cash flow, valuation anchors, and risk appetite. The facade can sway with the main building's wind vibration, but once the main structure develops cost transmission cracks, even the most beautiful prefabricated components will resonate. From the construction organization perspective, Apple's revenue side still has a tower crane turning, but the cost side has already risen step by step like the price of rebar entering the site. Memory chips are embedded pipelines; smart services are building automation; any price increase is not a facade issue but requires recalculating structural load. If costs cannot be passed on to the end user, the gross margin guidance is a design change order; if relying on one-time refunds to embellish, it's like sticking a layer of stone on the load-bearing column—complete from afar, but no increase in cross-section up close. The construction quality of tokenized assets depends on three pillars: underlying asset cash flow, market-making depth, and linkage mechanisms—not just the revenue beam. Long-term scalability is not achieved by adding decorative surfaces but by simultaneously reserving core tube, electromechanical capacity, and cost pass-through ability; any gap will become rework in the next construction cycle. Apple’s building can still add floors, but each added floor requires verifying the core tube; if the market only measures floor height without checking reinforcement, linked products will sound alarms under wind load. The market treats revenue beating expectations as a topping-out ceremony, but I only see the honeycomb texture of the load-bearing wall: the downward revision of gross margin guidance is the settlement crack that should never appear before structural acceptance. #appleq4marginpressure #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ This quarter: Market revenue expected around $780 million Market GAAP EPS expected around $0.375 ❌USDC's average circulation declined, with this quarter's average about $73 billion, lower than last quarter's approximately $77 billion, and reserve income dropped from $668 million to about $650 million ❌AI agent risk was highlighted, Mizuho warned that AI personal assistants might direct users to high-yield fiat products, potentially reducing medium- to long-term income by 10–20%, plus fierce competition, with USDT and other compliant stablecoin markets diverting funds ❌Continuous insider selling, about $25 million sold in the past three months, connected to the crypto sector; whenever coins plunge, stocks tend not to rise ❌Federal Reserve rate cuts will also cause U.S. Treasury yields to fall, dragging down reserve yields and directly reducing them, but the Fed is uncontrollable Entry position This is the most uncertain decision Small positions can enter at the current price, but choose to be bullish; if the earnings report exceeds expectations, target $75 If earnings miss expectations, stop loss below $68 Revenue will most likely slightly exceed expectations, but GAAP EPS has been raised too much at once, not even meeting expectations compared to last quarter; I actually don't think it will meet expectations Choose No @OKX星球 @OKX中文 #OKX美股财报季 #OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKX On the radar echo, three warm and moist airflows are simultaneously colliding with the same cold front—the $65.5 million buy order from Strategy, Strive's 15% annual preferred stock dividend, and Metaplanet's early repayment of $50.64 million in bonds, all squeezed into the same 48-hour window. This is not scattered precipitation; it is a frontal cyclone completing a typical "energy reorganization" over crypto assets. First, looking at Strategy: the purchase of 811 BTC itself is just a mesoscale convective element; the real change in the pressure field comes from the $208 million preferred stock buyback. Buying back preferred stock is equivalent to cutting off low-level instability energy ahead of the cold front's passage, compressing the denominator of financing costs, and recalibrating the BTC exposure per share like a dew point rise. But note, buyback is not dissipating the cloud mass; it just moves moisture from one layer to another, the isobar of capital efficiency does not widen, it just steepens the gradient. Strive's first use of SATS preferred stock with a 15% annual dividend is a continuous moisture transport at the edge of the subtropical high pressure—precipitation efficiency is indeed high, with 124 BTC secured, but the high dividend means evaporation also increases simultaneously. This structure runs fast when humidity is saturated; once wind shear intensifies, maintenance costs will spread rapidly like a cumulonimbus anvil. BitMine's 8,573 ETH pushes total holdings to about 6.06 million ETH, reaching a scale capable of altering local circulation, but ETH's volatility itself is an active shear line; the larger the holding, the more sensitive the net asset value per share is to the wind field. Metaplanet's early debt repayment of $50.64 million and raising the purchase budget to $212 million is the process of reestablishing the pressure gradient after the low-pressure trough empties; the debt maturity structure shortens, and the channel for funds to shift to BTC becomes more direct, but short-term repayment pressure just moves from one cloud base to another cloud top. Placing the four on the same isobar map, the core variable is not how much was bought, but whether the "precipitation efficiency" of crypto holdings per share after financing cost and debt adjustments has been overestimated. Preferred stock dividends, dilution of equity from buybacks, and cash flow absorption from early debt repayment—these three lines are converging into a convergence zone. The linked cloud system of XAMZN tokenized assets is also in the same wind field; once the pressure ridge of US stock risk appetite retreats eastward, the dew point on the crypto side will respond first. The sounding data has not finished transmitting, but wind shear has already appeared in the 08:00 upper air chart. When isobars narrow to this extent, the next sounding balloon will only see shear, not clear skies. #strategybuys811btc AAPL: $332.17, 24h -1.82%, range $205~$235, at the 50% percentile of the past 30 days. Watch the $228 level for gains or losses, holding steady above $210 suggests sideways movement. For reference only, not investment advice.Late-night market shows volatile rebound, with intensified long-short battles. First, looking at $BTC, the current price has rebounded to around 77584. Although the average position cost at the high of 81135 has contracted, the short position yield remains as high as +87.52%. After a sharp drop, BTC has undergone technical recovery, but this still forms the most solid profit base in the account. The rebound should be cautious of further upward resistance tests. Next, $BCH shows strong resilience. The current price has fallen back to 277.4, with the short position gaining a counter-trend profit of +72.55%. Notably, the margin for this position is as high as 429U, and the liquidation price has been pushed to around 355, indicating extreme defense in the previous period. The profit buffer is very thick now, but under intense capital battles, sudden independent short squeezes should still be guarded against. Finally, $ETH is the weakest performer. The current price has rebounded to 2293, close to the opening average price of 2306, compressing the short position profit significantly to only +11.64%. Ethereum resists decline but also easily follows rebounds. It is currently precarious near the cost line and requires close attention to whether it can be pressured down again. In summary, the oversold rebound after the sharp drop has arrived as expected. With 20x high leverage, profit retracements are normal. Overall, there are still substantial profits held. Given the large uncertainties in the night session, it is recommended to take profits in batches timely, securing some gains to prevent the rebound from eroding the results. #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ NU7 Time ⏰ NU7 might activate in the early hours of November 6, not November 5! 🔍 CryptoTicker: On October 30, the ZEC block height was about 3,536,200. Based on the block production speed over the previous 24 hours, block height 3,543,405 is expected to be reached between November 5 and 6; on the morning of November 3, about 69 hours remain, corresponding to around the early hours of November 6 (UTC). 📅 The official developer target date remains November 5; activation depends on block height, not a fixed time. 🔒 NU7 will invalidate v4 transactions, and ZEC in the Sprout pool cannot be spent after activation. 🧮 69 hours is about 2 days and 21 hours (my own calculation). This is an estimate based on block speed, not an official time; I’m not certain and might be mistaken. 📍 The events I’m watching: • Block height progress • Node upgrades and wallet compatibility • The first batch of blocks after activation What do you think will happen on the day NU7 activates? Will ZEC "buy the rumor" or "sell the news"? $ZEC #Zcash #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔷 $BTC - ETFs started November with an outflow of $398.6M IBIT withdrew $405.3M, the largest outflow since June 26. FBTC +$6.7M. Over two sessions −$1.04B. ETH-ETFs −$140M for the sixth consecutive day. Red flag: BTC fell below $76,400, the lowest since August. DYOR. Will $76K hold? 👇The latest leg higher in crypto wasn't a broad rally. It was a short squeeze, and the liquidation data makes that clear: bears got forced out first, while fresh spot demand played a minor role. $BTC shows the strongest signal. About $33.74M in shorts were liquidated over 24 hours versus just $6.70M in longs. The pace was relentless: $25.99M in shorts over 12 hours, $17.30M over four hours, and $1.52M in the last hour alone. That isn't a gradual repricing. It's a self-reinforcing cascade of stop-Can stocks be traded long and short like cryptocurrencies for the long term? The CFTC has approved perpetual contracts for stocks, officially bringing the trading model honed for years in the crypto space onto Wall Street. According to CoinDesk, this approval means that the perpetual contract structure—characterized by no expiration date, leveraged rollovers, and funding rate adjustments—is now incorporated into the traditional securities regulatory framework. This is seen as a bullish signal: not just positive for any single token, but a sign that the crypto derivatives paradigm is being recognized by mainstream finance, strengthening the long-term narrative for Perp DEXs, on-chain derivatives, and crypto trading infrastructure. For traders, the trading experience between stocks and crypto assets is converging, capital flows between the two markets will become smoother, and opportunities for funding rate and cross-market arbitrage strategies will open up. However, regulatory approval does not mean immediate volume growth. Leverage limits, liquidation rules, and participation thresholds will still determine the real experience. Key points to watch are the exchanges and underlying assets launching first, the available leverage multiples, and whether traditional market makers and crypto market makers will compete for this new liquidity pool. Are you more interested in the initial underlying assets launched or the available leverage multiples? Ethereum fell slightly less, and Micron also bounced back to the middle of the range $ETH dropped only 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Calculated in the same window and priced in terms of SOL, it rose about 0.7%. Its own quote retreated slightly, but its relative performance moved forward a bit. I prefer to place it on the more resilient side of the rebound, with a small lead, not exaggerating it as a standalone trend; 2300 was not held, but it does not erase the partial advantage already gained in the price comparison. $SLX rose 2.7% in the past three full hours, with trading volume 24.1% higher than the previous three hours. This upward move was accompanied by expanded trading, not just scattered price jumps. 0.04 was regained, with a quote of 0.04016 still above it. I acknowledge the local upward shift, but the distance left above this threshold is still thin, and the repair is not yet at a level to relax. $MU Micron contracts bounced from a low of 831.06 to 863.5, about 3.9% higher; still about 3.9% below the high of 898.77, already rebounding to the middle of the range from the lower end. I see it as a rebound with room to move both up and down. The daily drop of 3.9% has not finished pulling back, and the quote has not yet returned to the upper part of the range. RENDER rose 2.0% in the past three full hours, with trading volume increasing by 180.9%, and the number of trades increasing by only 54.1%, meaning the average amount per trade increased by about 82.3%. This expansion is not only due to more trades but also higher volume per trade. I acknowledge the quality of the rebound in trading, but do not assign trader identity based on this; the price still depends on the actual position left.🚨🚨🚨The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, a very remarkable coincidence Every midterm election occurs at the end of a bear market, This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022, After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and a bull market begins The difference is that each bottoming time has been earlier Will there be another sharp drop after this midterm election? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BNB To maintain liquidity, second- and third-tier market makers are directly given top-tier rate rebates, the 700 level will break or not. Platform tokens basically rely on traffic. When funds are withdrawn, just subsidizing market makers' fees at best is a painkiller. Now the contract rates have started to pay interest. There are basically no decent spot orders under the order book, just this empty facade, what can it hold. #BNB $BNB 👇Event: Security agency: About 3,600 Binance stolen SOL flowed into HitBTC hot wallet through multiple paths. Regarding this matter, if you happen to hold related positions, what you probably want to know most now is: Has the money moved? Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 77,660.60, 24h +0.68% · ETH current price 2,295.98, 24h +1.79% · Spot USDT with 127 rising / 101 falling (trading volume ≥ 100,000 USD threshold) Which indicator do you usually look at to make a decision in such times? Leave your judgment in the comments, come back tomorrow to see who was right.BTC bottoming, ETH hanging by a thread: 420,000 potential sell pressure is the real trouble $BTC $77,200, $ETH $2,258. Bitcoin is oscillating narrowly between 76,700 and 77,200, while Ethereum is struggling to hold around 2,250. In the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidations reached $298 million, with long positions accounting for $271 million; the aftershocks of the Binance incident are still ongoing. On the BTC side, last Friday saw a net outflow of $643 million from spot ETFs in a single day, the largest outflow since June, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing an outflow of $233.7 million. Wintermute pointed out that bottom-fishing funds mainly come from leveraged perpetual contracts, with spot and ETF buying absent, showing short-term weakness. The 50-week moving average at about 76,800 is the next key support and the short-term boundary between bulls and bears. $ETH is more troublesome. Lazarus Group holds over 420,000 ETH that cannot be frozen: the attacker deposited stolen USDT into Aave as collateral to borrow ETH; Tether can freeze USDT but cannot touch the borrowed ETH, making these 420,000 ETH a potential sell pressure hanging overhead. Technically, 2,250 has been broken, and RSI has entered oversold territory for the first time since June. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ BTC depends on whether 76,800 can hold, ETH depends on whether the oversold condition can digest the sell pressure. With data week approaching, don't rush to catch the fall #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Conclusion first: $ETH current price is 2295 USD. In the past 48 hours, there have been two major cases where stolen funds were converted into ETH, and what you should watch out for is whether your withdrawals get stuck. On November 3, Kraken froze a batch of accounts involving a suspected theft of 133 million USD from a European institution. Bitquery found that stolen funds were withdrawn from accounts on Kraken, Crypto.com, and OKX, with 62.98 million USD in stablecoins converted into 27,553 ETH within 4 hours. Tether only froze 1.1 million USDT, and Circle only has 3.74 million USDC left to freeze. On November 2, Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin was robbed of 46 million USD. Certik's Dickson Wu put it bluntly: the attacker spent four hours probing eight small chains including Base, Optimism, and Arbitrum, then transferred ETH out from 27,160 customer deposit addresses—"anyone can move MB customers' funds from their addresses." Two rules: small incoming ETH from unknown addresses must have their source checked first; withdrawing to centralized exchanges is not risk diversification, it is handing over risk control to the other party. Have you ever received inexplicable small incoming transfers?#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue Ahead of the Q3 earnings call tonight, Wall Street expects AMD to report a record $13.06 billion to $13.10 billion in total revenue, representing roughly 41% year-over-year growth. The Data Center segment remains the primary growth engine, with analysts projecting revenue to reach ~$8.19 billion to $8.30 billion, an approximate 88% YoY surge compared to the $4.34 billion reported in Q3 last year.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle's earnings report is coming out tonight, with market expectations for revenue around 790 million to 800 million, and an EPS consensus of $0.40. But the real focus isn't these numbers; it's a more complicated question: USDC's market size is indeed growing, but is Circle actually making money? The Q2 facts are clear: USDC circulation is 73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year; on-chain transaction volume is 14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% increase year-over-year. Sounds impressive. But total revenue is only 701 million, up just 7% year-over-year. The reason is that about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in U.S. Treasuries; transfer fees in Q2 were only 5.3 million. Turning 14.8 trillion in transaction volume into just over 5 million in revenue results in a very awkward conversion rate. Even more problematic is that reserve yield is declining, dropping from 4.14% to 3.5%. Although the market size is bigger, interest income growth is diluted, and distribution costs are eating into the incremental gains. In Q2 alone, Circle paid about 325 million to Coinbase; for the first half of the year, for every dollar earned, only 7 cents remain as net profit. So "stablecoin growth" and "Circle making money" are two different things. Q3 will likely continue this divergence of volume growth without profit growth. What do you think? Should Circle's valuation be based on USDC scale or on profits? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I advise everyone to buy spot, go long with low leverage, and use grid trading; this is sincere advice. But sincerity is like underwear—everyone wears it, but no one knows if the other person is wearing it. However, if I wear it on my head, you can see at first glance that I am sincere. But wearing underwear on your head will only make people think you are crazy, and sincerity is the same. The US midterm elections are voting today. Looking back at previous times, the market dropped before and after each election, and there were other events behind it. In 2014, the impact of Mt. Gox's bankruptcy was still ongoing, and later Bitstamp was hacked. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 71 days later dropped about 46%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 24%. In 2018, it was already a bear market, and then there was the BCH hard fork and the hash power dispute. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 39 days later dropped about 50%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 45%. In 2022, on election day, FTX suspended withdrawals and later filed for bankruptcy. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 13 days later dropped about 15%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 92%. So what about this time? If we take [76700] as an example, assuming it drops another 15%, it would be around [65200]. But note, 76700 is just an example price now, not the confirmed closing price on election day. Also, the background of each previous drop was different.Intel Crashes 28.6% in a Single Day: Opportunity or Value Trap Through Buffett’s Framework? Let's break it down using Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. First, look at the numbers. Intel released its Q3 earnings on October 29: Revenue: $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year. Data Center and AI revenue: $7.3 billion, up 78%. Q4 revenue guidance: $15–16 billion, well below the market expectation of $17.1 billion (LSEG).#DailyOrbit A short squeeze, not a broad rally, drove the latest leg higher in crypto. The liquidation tape tells the story: bears were carried out first, and the move was concentrated in forced short exits rather than fresh spot demand. $BTC shows the clearest pressure. Roughly $33.74 million of short positions were liquidated over 24 hours against about $6.70 million in longs. The rhythm barely paused: $25.99 million in shorts wiped out over 12 hours, $17.30 million over four hours, and $1.52 million in t Financial blogger Maobi Dao said his $BTC position has already been pushed to 55%, and for the next year and a half, he will only buy and not sell, continuing to add positions on both sides. Once the news came out, many retail investors took it as a bottom-fishing signal, thinking that since the big players are heavily invested, it's stable. But there's a key point that can't be ignored: he didn't clarify whether this 55% refers to his entire net worth or just the proportion within his investment account. Everyone's financial background is different, and risk tolerance varies completely. Just because someone dares to hold half their position firmly doesn't mean it's suitable for us to copy. Moreover, this kind of public statement inherently carries emotional guidance. Long-term positioning and short-term speculation are fundamentally different. He is prepared to hold for a year and a half and can withstand any dips in between; if you are using money needed in the short term or even leveraged to follow, any deep correction will break your mindset, and you simply won't be able to hold for that time. The big player's strategy is to bet on the upcoming long-term market cycle, gradually averaging down costs in batches. But the market won't enter a bull run just because someone is heavily invested; macro variables like the Federal Reserve, ETFs, and the Nasdaq will change as they will. Others' holdings can only be taken as a reference perspective, never as a basis for buying or selling. Don't rush in full position just because someone shouts long-term buy and hold. A position suitable for them might be a huge burden for you. In investing, the most important thing is to have a position size that lets you sleep well at night. $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 I repeatedly checked this set of capital flow data, and the more I look, the more something feels off. $BTC contract side net outflow is $194 million, and the spot side simultaneously has a net outflow of $76.36 million — note, this is not just simple deleveraging, even spot positions are withdrawing. When "leveraged funds" and "real money" leave the market at the same time, it indicates that market contraction has gone beyond the derivatives level and touched the deeper layer of holding willingness. The structure of $ETH is even more alarming. Contract outflow is $95.69 million, but spot outflow is as high as $114 million, with spot withdrawal scale surpassing contracts. Leverage is retreating, but real capital is retreating faster; among the three major mainstream coins, its capital structure is the most fragile. This is not a temporary bleed in rotation, but a matter of the order in which holders vote with their feet: first withdraw spot, then withdraw leverage, and $ETH is currently doing both simultaneously. The only bright spot comes from $SOL. Contract outflow is $79.49 million, but the spot side recorded a net inflow of $8.84 million, indicating someone is tentatively buying at a low level. However, a cold shower is necessary: $8.84 million compared to nearly $80 million contract outflow is only partial absorption, far from a "strength reversal." Interpreting it as "capital inflow" is a misjudgment; interpreting it as "individual accounts building positions in the discount zone" is closer to the truth. The midday data also confirms the same direction: the one-hour open interest for all four coins decreased, trading volume expanded but open interest did not follow. $ZEC trading is also active, but open interest is shrinking — like mainstream coins, the entire market is narrowing exposure rather than expanding. Tonight's variables are dense: JOLTS job openings will be announced at 23:00,all the average companies and average dollars in the world are going to move somewhere. They need a place. gold is an average product…you buy btc. Real estate is an average product you buy eth. The banking system is an average product you buy crcl. Volkswagen is an average product you buy rivn. Alcohol is average so you buy longevity company. Video games are average so you buy VR (soon). So many software companies and white collar jobs are average so you long ai (trade is playing out).Will BTC definitely drop after the midterm elections? Don't rush to believe it this time! After the 2018 election, it dropped −51%, and after the 2022 election, it dropped −25%. The whole network is starting to shout, "Will it drop again this time?" 🚨 But look at the position: on the past two voting days, BTC was below the 200-day moving average; this time it is about 5.2% above, around $76,990. Look at the cycle: the previous two times, the drop from the peak was 67%—73%, voting during a deep bear market; this time the drop from the peak is about 36%, and in June it already fell about 53%. The same midterm elections, but a different starting point. History may rhyme, but it doesn't necessarily rhyme with a "51% drop." Do you think it will continue to fall this time, or will it follow a new script? $BTC $ETH #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $$398,600,000. Single-day ETF net outflow, with IBIT alone accounting for 405 million, a figure more worth watching than the price itself. Are you seeing panic, or proactive position reduction before the event? I was stunned when I checked the data this morning; BTC fluctuated between 76,700 and 78,777, the fear and greed index hung in the weak zone, and the entire market seemed to be holding its breath. This is not the rhythm of a normal pullback, but more like the market pulling back leverage before a major event. IBIT accounted for the bulk of the ETF net outflow on the 30th, indicating that even the most stable passive buying is stepping back, a signal more honest than the candlestick chart. What the market is really trading now is not direction, but volatility itself. The midterm elections land today, and the nonfarm payrolls on the 6th will decide the pace of rate hikes in December; with these two events packed together, capital naturally is reluctant to take heavy positions in the middle ground. I noticed a detail: the price hasn't collapsed, but volume and sentiment have both thinned out. This kind of low-volume waiting structure often means that once news breaks, volatility will be amplified rather than slowly digested. The bullish path is actually not complicated. Once the election results become clear, the uncertainty premium will exit, and the suppressed spot buying and ETF subscriptions may quickly rebound. BTC will first repair sentiment, followed by a catch-up rally in high-beta assets like ETH and SOL, with risk appetite shifting from contraction to expansion. Altcoins usually show more emotional elasticity than the mainstream at this stage, but the premise is that capital is willing to take on risk again. The risks are also obvious. If the continuous ETF net outflow extends to November 3 midday session, don't rush to short, a vengeful rebound is coming soon #BTC #ETH #SOL Look at the 30-minute K-line in Chart 1 BTC just dropped to 76520 Now the J value has directly fallen to 18.2, which is extremely oversold If you impulsively short now The whale will pull a big bullish candle back to 77000, directly hanging you on the mountaintop Dumping during the day and pumping at night, #DailyOrbit $ETH During the day, ETH made a strong counter-trend pull-up, and the on-chain details were fully exposed. There’s no big whale bottom-fishing; it’s purely hackers aggressively sweeping over $60 million stolen funds in the spot market. They didn’t even pause after buying, immediately transferring out in batches. They’re just laundering money by bridging liquidity through the order book. Once this batch is unpacked and cleaned on-chain, it will all turn into a hammer smashing the market. The bulls are still fantasizing about incremental funds entering, which is really wishful thinking. #ETH $ETH 👇$BNB CZ doesn't say a word about new coins, only uses BNB, and the new chain ties Gas and staking entirely to the old coin. No dismantling the temple, no issuing new stocks, just building skyscrapers on the original foundation, with the entire ecosystem expansion crashing into this one pool. What's even funnier is that the shorts on the market are losing interest every day but stubbornly holding on, as if the dealer's bottom support this round is just for show. There are only so many chips, the spot is firmly held by big players, and a short squeeze is just a matter of time. #BNB $BNB 👇#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Once the overnight capital flow is revealed, the tone changes: mainstream coins no longer move in unison 🚦. BTC and SOL see capital inflows, while ETH is withdrawing funds, showing a clear split within the sector. Here are the data: BTC net inflow of 189.3 coins, SOL net inflow of 114,000 coins; ETH net outflow of 2698.11 coins, short-term funds are retreating first 📉. Though all are top assets, the capital directions are opposite, indicating conflicting market expectations for the future. If the market rallies, ETH is dragging behind; if it crashes, BTC and SOL have support below. The bulls and bears can't form a unified force, so it's likely to remain choppy 🔄. Don't interpret ETH's short-term outflow as a long-term fundamental failure 🙅. Its fundamentals and institutional positioning remain intact; this round looks more like short-term profit-taking. But in terms of short-term strength, funds clearly favor BTC and SOL, so don't force ETH to follow their rhythm when trading ⚠️. Additionally, the U.S. midterm election results will be finalized tonight, which may further amplify the divergence 🎯. Focus on the control of the House and Senate, as this will affect the pace of the next round of crypto regulatory legislation and determine where funds will cluster 👀.Dage watches the market Binance posted a tweet saying that as of 11:00 AM Beijing time on November 3, the platform's hourly deposit volume exceeded the withdrawal volume. The wording was very restrained: "User activity is improving, and capital flow is stabilizing." But after it spread, this sentence was quickly condensed into a lighter version: Binance's capital flow has returned. Part of it has indeed returned. But equating a "single-hour crossover" directly with "trust restoration completed" is reading an accounting inflection point as an emotional turning point. There is quite a distance between these two things. Let's look at two sets of numbers. Binance's self-reported statistical period is from 2:00 PM on November 1 to 12:00 PM on November 3, a total of 46 hours, during which deposits totaled about $5.695 billion, withdrawals about $10.97 billion, with a net outflow of $5.276 billion. In the same time window, DefiLlama's tracked 24-hour rolling net inflow once turned positive, fluctuating between $1.6 billion and $2.3 billion. The difference in figures comes from the statistical window and whether internal exchange wallet transfers are included. Single-hour deposits were $1.93 million, withdrawals $1.83 million, net inflow $10 million — this is the actual scale at the "crossover" moment. Ten million dollars, placed in Binance's wallet assets of over $100 billion, is not even a drop in the bucket. It is more like a traffic signal rather than a capital signal. A sentence in the BlockBeats flash report put it quite well: the official only confirmed "hourly deposits > withdrawals", $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 When the bull market arrives, everyone is a genius; a broad rally disguises luck as "I've enlightened." True skill isn't about having a green PnL one week, but about pocketing profits after the tide recedes, preserving principal, and being able to replicate the moves. In short: being repeatable is called skill, relying on a single surge is called a bonus. Don't credit beta's achievements as your own heroic narrative.Beginner's Diary｜BlackRock IBIT had a single-day outflow of $405M, the largest single-day outflow since June (Source: CoinDesk/Farside)🏃‍♂️ But on the same day, Fidelity FBTC saw an inflow of about $6.7M—are institutions "breaking up but not breaking apart"?😂 Beginner's notes: ETF fund flows ≠ tomorrow's price movement, but they can reveal the sentiment temperature of big money🌡️ $BTC is currently hovering around $77,000, I choose to understand first, then act. Do you usually look at ETF fund flow data? Learning check-in, not investment advice #BitcoinETF #BTC Sony's earnings report is approaching, can gaming and music uphold market confidence? 🎮 Sony will release its earnings on November 5, with PS5 game revenue, user activity, and music streaming performance as key focuses. Gaming drives traffic, music ensures continuous monetization; whether these two business lines can keep contributing profits is the real highlight. Looking at the crypto space, BTC (the big brother) is around $76,592, ETH about $2,247, SOL approximately $91.77. XRP has slightly turned positive, BNB and ADA remain relatively weak, and altcoins continue to diverge. One is a traditional entertainment giant delivering results, the other is the crypto market awaiting capital inflow. My stance remains: good news doesn't equal a price rise, hot topics don't equal opportunities. Watch for the big brother to stabilize first, don't rush to bottom-fish altcoins. Breakouts depend on volume, pullbacks depend on support, don't let FOMO trade for you! Personal chart records shared, not investment advice. $ETH $SOL $XRP #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI system commercialization progress Tonight is the final highlight moment for eth, are you ready? This position has been tested several times without a successful breakthrough, the downward structure has not been broken, you can short one hand with a very high cost-performance ratio, and set a stop loss $ETH $BTC 🔥Early Morning Intelligence｜Today's Capital Flow Report $BTC Contract net outflow of 194 million USD Spot outflow of 76.36 million USD Both contract and spot markets are retreating Short-term rebound is just a zero-sum game, not a reversal $ETH Contract outflow of 95.69 million USD Spot selling pressure of 114 million USD Not just deleveraging, but overall position reduction $SOL Contract outflow of 79.49 million USD Spot actually has a net inflow of 8.84 million USD Key Points Watch if spot outflow can narrow Manage positions well and wait calmly for market changes If you find this recap useful, please give a like! Press 1 if outflow narrows and stabilizes, press 2 if selling pressure continues This is only a market recap and does not constitute investment advice #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The election trade is legislative arithmetic, not price direction — and 76,500 is exactly the answer to that arithmetic problem. Prediction markets have already priced the House at 95% and the Senate at 72%, but the outcome of the CLARITY Act was written as early as September 15: the Senate procedural vote was 49 to 50, not even reaching the 60-vote threshold, with Republicans themselves defecting. 21Shares' judgment is straightforward: before the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027, the bill is "best considered dead." The Democrats taking the House will only push any market structure legislation to include stronger consumer protections and DeFi disclosure clauses, further delaying rather than accelerating progress. So the equation "Democrats win = bearish for crypto" is too crude. Trump's executive power remains, and the SEC's shift from enforcement regulation to interpretive exemptions does not depend on changes in congressional seats. The real transmission chain is: the election result changes the legislative arithmetic for 2027, not the price direction for 2026. Back to the market, the reason 76,500 is critical is not because it is a "support level," but because below it lies the most fragile position structure. Around 75,948 is a concentrated long liquidation zone; breaking below the 75,000–76,000 range could trigger forced liquidations and amplify short-term selling pressure. The ETF's single-day net outflow of $643 million occurred four trading days before the election, more like defensive reduction rather than systemic rejection, but institutions indeed lack willingness to support above 80,000.$HYPE An analyst drew a head and shoulders top for HYPE, saying it could drop another 22%. I glanced at today's news: CFTC approved the first batch of US stock perpetual contracts, and the platform is Hyperliquid. One is a judgment given by the chart, the other is a license given by the regulator, both released on the same day. The price chose the latter. 86.9, up 2.8% in 24 hours, just one dollar below the 24-hour high of 87.9. Open interest is 110 million, fee rate 0.01%, a standard long position paying fees. But I don't quite believe this kind of rise. Looking at the hourly volume: at 22:00 it was 6.46 million, then 2.79 million, 1.9 million, 530,000, 220,000, each bar thinner than the last. The price didn't fall, but volume is retreating. This is not buying pushing up, it's selling withdrawing. I never use head and shoulders patterns as predictions. It only shows a bunch of trapped chips pressing down above. To realize that 22% drop, someone has to actively dump downwards, but I don't see that action now. I tend to think it will grind sideways until the US stock perpetual contracts really go live and real money comes in. The period between the chart and the license, when no one is pricing, is the easiest to be deceived. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ZEC From 1120 to 1228, it took less than ten hours. Last night when that big drop happened, the number I saw was $12.96 million long positions liquidated. Based on past experience, after such a large-scale chain liquidation, the price should stay low for a while. ZEC didn’t stay down; it climbed all the way back to 1228, now at 1227, a 24-hour high. The strange part is the open interest. After liquidation, it should have shrunk, but it actually rose from 139 million to 152 million. New money came in, the fee rate is still at 0.01%, and the bulls are paying. Tomorrow NU7 will launch the mainnet, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. This expectation has been mentioned many times; I don’t think it alone can drive much. What’s interesting is the post-liquidation takeover—the batch of positions that got liquidated and the current positions are not from the same group. I didn’t chase this round. Entering above 1220, stop loss would have to be set below 1180, the risk-reward ratio isn’t worth it. Watch the first hour after the upgrade goes live. If open interest keeps rising but the price stalls, that means turnover, not continuation. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？

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