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I've always been puzzled by one thing: with the coin price dropping so much, how come the project team is still issuing new coins every day?
NEAR has provided an explanation this time. The community voted, with 99.96% approval, to lower the annual issuance cap from 2.5% down to 1.6% over 24 months.
Sounds pretty firm, but when you look at the details, it's not that satisfying: currently, 89,500 coins are issued daily; after the change, it's still 57,300 coins per day. That's only a one-third reduction.
In plain terms, they stepped on the brake, not turned off the engine. The steering wheel is still in the project team's hands, and when they ease off the pedal depends on the approval behind the scenes.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Direct conclusion: leaning towards No
Core reasons
1. Last quarter, Circle's EPS was below analyst expectations, already showing a history of underperformance. The ongoing interest rate cuts continue to eat into reserve interest, which is a hard flaw: even if USDC circulation is increasing, the decline in reserve yield will directly erode profits. Growth in circulation scale is unlikely to fully offset the income reduction caused by falling interest rates.
2. On the market, the probability of Yes has dropped from 74% to 64%, with funds shifting from Yes to No, indicating that the market has begun to worry about the difficulty of achieving performance.
3. Arc's new business is still in the early stages, and short-term financial reports are unlikely to contribute enough income to offset the pressure on interest income.
The only opportunity for Yes
If USDC's on-chain transaction volume and institutional cooperation continue to expand, and if USDC circulation volume surges beyond expectations this quarter, it may drive overall revenue to exceed expectations, but this is not easy.A governance proposal for NEAR received 99.96% support. 3.29 million veNEAR were cast, with almost no opposition votes. In a community where even adjusting fees by a few basis points can cause months of debate, this number itself is more noteworthy than the proposal content.
The proposal aims to adjust issuance. The current annual issuance cap is 2.5%, planned to gradually decrease to 1.6% over 24 months. The model calculates that in the first two years, about 11.8 million fewer NEAR will be issued, and over six years, about 66.1 million fewer NEAR in total. On a daily basis, issuance will drop from approximately 89,500 to about 57,300.
This means daily new NEAR issuance is reduced by one-third. It’s not a burn or buyback, but simply turning the faucet down a bit. For holders, dilution slows, and staking yields will also decrease slightly—two sides of the same coin.
There are still two hurdles in the mechanism: approval from the House of Stake’s security council and completion of the protocol upgrade. Proposal approval does not equal code deployment; during this interim, the market can easily trade expectations as facts.
The gradual 24-month reduction rather than a one-time cut indicates the designers do not want to cause supply shocks. Such slow-moving variables have never been driven by a single bullish candle. The valuation of infrastructure tokens like $NEAR has always been stuck between narrative and cash flow; less issuance makes the story easier to tell, but story and buying pressure are two different things.9x leverage, let me first pour some cold water: this is not evidence of bullishness in my eyes, it only shows that this long position has a relatively narrow margin for error. In the material, Core Trader 14 opened a new long position of 3,333 SOL, with a nominal value of about $307,300, reference price $92.2104. Don't get excited too quickly; a large position expresses intent, not the answer.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, roughly calculating with 9x leverage, if SOL moves 1% against the position, the loss relative to the initial margin is about 9%, not counting fees and margin adjustments; even if the direction is ultimately correct, the volatility might be unbearable at first. Second, the material does not provide stop-loss or other account positions, so I cannot judge whether this is a one-sided bet or a hedged portfolio. Taking it directly as a bullish signal is like relying on risk controls others haven't disclosed to boost your confidence. If the price drops, the worst off are those who have no exit plan and chase this leverage blindly.
Of course, the other side might be right; I won't nitpick just to be bearish. If the price can consistently stay above this reference price and recover after a pullback, I will reduce my doubts about the timing of entry; but that still doesn't mean 9x leverage is suitable to copy blindly. What I will watch next is whether the price can validate the judgment, not whether the wallet name sounds impressive.$DOOD DOOD spot buying has gotten a bit excessive.
A net inflow in one month directly consumed 64% of the market cap, and the circulating supply on the exchange is almost emptied.
The contract fee rate is actually negative, with shorts paying interest daily to hold their positions.
The sell orders above have already broken the gap; if the main force kicks back, these shorts will all become fuel for pumping the price.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇The long-term bullish view on $COIN has not changed for now!
The weekly structure remains bullish, key support has not been broken, and a reverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming.
My target ranges:
🎯 Short term: $220 (next 60–90 days)
🎯 Long term: $444 (next 18–24 months)
🎯 Long-range target: $480 by November 2028
If the weekly close falls below $120, the entire bullish thesis needs to be reassessed.
The original post estimated a short-term risk-reward ratio of about 2:1, and a long-term ratio of about 10:1.
I am currently still holding a long position.
$COIN $BTC $OKB OKB didn't drop even after two consecutive hits at $106; the daily double bottom is confirmed.
Bears continuing to push down at this level is truly futile.
The chips are clearly laid out. The total supply is capped at 21 million, with no unlocking pressure, and the X Layer network will continue to burn Gas.
This isn't about being bullish on a single candlestick; it's purely a matter of the numbers adding up, with downward space basically sealed off.
Now the 4-hour MACD is almost a straight line, volume is shrinking, and the sideways movement is very clean.
It's just a matter of when the big players wake up and start working.
#OKB
$OKB
👇$XPL Negative News: After a flash crash last week, it dropped another 7%, with 228 million tokens unlocking on November 25
XPL is currently priced at $0.06212, down 7.05% in 24 hours, with OKEx spot trading volume around $4.2 million
Around 12:30 PM Beijing time on November 1, XPL fell from 0.0857 to 0.0711 within one minute. Hyperliquid saw about $24.49 million liquidated in the past hour, almost all long positions, with the HLP treasury losing about $556,000
On-chain tracking links the funds of these liquidated addresses to the trading group involved in the April pump and dump. The controller is unconfirmed, but it at least shows this coin is easily manipulated by concentrated positions, causing large dips when liquidity is thin
Supply-side pressure remains, with about 228 million tokens scheduled to unlock on November 25, accounting for about 4.78% of the circulating supply. This monthly unlocking will continue until September 2028
It has dropped about 96% from the all-time high of $1.68. Derivatives positions are also shrinking. Without new demand to absorb, each unlocking event adds to the selling pressure.🔥Ethereum is going through its toughest bottoming phase; once it gets through this, the sky's the limit!
In the crypto world, staying alive is more important than making profits. I've seen too many people mess up because of poor position management. My own rule is that no single trade should lose more than 2% of the principal.
Currently, the rebound is facing resistance near 2300. Regarding moving averages, EMA15 is at 2326, EMA30 at 2389; all short-term moving averages are pressing down above the price, indicating a bearish pattern on the daily chart. MACD is running below the zero line, the green bars are shortening, DIF and DEA are both in negative territory, there is a golden cross but the strength is weak. The Bollinger Bands middle line at 2353 is the first hurdle, with the upper band at 2494 and the lower band at 2212. Overall, the daily chart shows a consolidation after an oversold rebound, no reversal yet.
The 4-hour candlestick is above these two short moving averages, indicating signs of short-term stabilization. But EMA60 at 2302 is right overhead, which is a key resistance level. MACD green bars have turned red, DIF crossed above DEA forming a golden cross, short-term momentum is slightly bullish. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the upper band at 2302, lower band at 2235, and middle band at 2269. The lowest point today hit 2284 before pulling back, indicating support near 2280. The 4-hour level is in a box consolidation after a decline, direction is still undecided.
Short-term reference:
🔺Northbound resistance at 2250 to 2200, stop loss 30 points, target 2300 to 2350
🔺Southbound stagnation at 2300 to 2350, stop loss 30 points, target 2250 to 2200 $HYPE
Today is Thursday, the midterm election voting has started, and it's almost the time close to Friday. Various major volatility news and policy developments are all concentrated in one week, just thinking about it is terrifying.
The daily chart shows a triple top; what needs to be considered now is whether the 80.328 level can hold. If it holds, there is still a chance to test the upper 93.884 level. If it doesn't hold, it will test the support at the lower 80.328 level again. It's hard to say where it will go; liquidity is currently poor and it is still very sensitive to news. After reading, I noted three things. What made me pause the most was that leanVM completed end-to-end formal verification, rather than the target date of "December 2028." I usually first look at which part of security progress is actually covered.
1. My judgment is that this is a substantial advancement at the infrastructure level, but it cannot be directly equated with Ethereum having comprehensive post-quantum security. Formal verification checks correctness under a defined model and constraints; there is still a distance before the entire network completes migration. I don’t want to generalize the achievement of one component as the conclusion for the whole network.
2. In the material, leanVM is responsible for efficiently aggregating hash-based post-quantum signatures, with the full transition target set for December 2028 to allow room for the necessary network forks. I care more about the aggregation part: if signatures can be efficiently packed into compact proofs, then the processing burden when the security solution is implemented is expected to be reduced. This is my speculation and also why it carries more weight than simply shouting "quantum resistance."
3. For ordinary users, I think this news is more suitable to be placed on a long-term security watchlist rather than directly translated into a short-term price signal for $ETH. Component verification, network forks, and full transition are different levels; mixing them together easily leads to treating the target date as the fulfillment date.
I will next focus on fork preparation and actual implementation. On the checklist, "verified" and "fully transitioned" must be checked off separately. In the latest 24-hour liquidation data, BTC, ETH, and SOL are all positioned between the upper and lower liquidation zones. The price is closer to the upper short liquidation zone, but the long liquidation scale below is larger for some coins. BTC's current price is $77852.9, with the largest pain point for shorts above at $78547.82, volume $24.7581 million, distance +0.89%; the largest pain point for longs below is $75949.52, volume $28.7224 million, distance -2.44%. ETH's current price is $2289.76, upper short pain point at $2322.62, volume $16.3174 million, distance +1.44%; lower long pain point at $2234.91, volume $26.736 million, distance -2.40%. SOL's structure is tighter: current price $93.59, upper short pain point $94.18, volume $2.7083 million, distance +0.63%; lower long pain point $90.97, volume $2.4296 million, distance -2.80%. 💡 My view. For all three coins, the distance above is smaller than below, most notably for SOL, indicating that if there is a rapid short-term price fluctuation, the upper liquidation zone is more likely to enter market focus first. However, liquidation pain points are only potential liquidity concentration areas and should not be directly considered as inevitable targets. For BTC and ETH, the long liquidation volume below exceeds the short volume above, so if a decline occurs, potential long position closing pressure may be more concentrated; SOL is the opposite, with the upper short volume slightly higher than the lower long volume. #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？
The US and Iran simultaneously signal peace talks, leading to a concentrated retreat of crude oil geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude quickly fell from a high of $112, with a maximum drop of nearly 8%, reaching a low near $103; WTI crude briefly dipped below $97 before a slight recovery.
Trump stated that oil prices "fell like a rock" due to reconciliation expectations. Iran's Supreme Leader has granted the government more negotiation authority. The US characterized its previous strike on Qeshm Island as defensive, and market bets on a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have quickly cooled. Coupled with limited OPEC+ production cut constraints, increased Middle East exports, and downward demand revisions, programmatic selling further amplified the short-term decline.
Currently, the market shows significant divergence: bears believe that after the geopolitical logic is disproven, oil prices will return to a weaker fundamental trend with further downside potential; bulls emphasize the underlying support of globally low inventories and insufficient supply elasticity. Goldman Sachs warns that if Gulf production disruptions persist, Brent could reach $140 by 2027.
In the short term, oil prices are likely to enter a phase of high-level wide-range oscillation with increased volatility. Progress in negotiations and on-site frictions could reverse the market at any time. Conditions for a unilateral deep drop are insufficient, and repeated geopolitical risks should be watched closely.
$BZ $CL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The US midterm elections are approaching, which results are worth paying attention to? BTCETH $XAU
The midterm elections essentially represent a vote on US fiscal and regulatory policies. Control of both chambers will directly change the short-term pricing logic of US debt, the dollar, gold, and BTC.
The market's current baseline expectation is that the Democrats will take the House + likely sweep. Under this scenario, tax increases and strong regulation (AI/crypto) will be implemented, deficits will narrow, US Treasury yields (4.96%) will fall, benefiting gold, while BTC will be under pressure.
Two other scenarios are unexpected and would cause greater volatility:
✅ Split Congress (Republicans hold the Senate)
Tax cuts and stimulus are unlikely, debt battles ensue, gold is the optimal safe haven, BTC fluctuates.
✅ Republican sweep (low probability)
Tax cuts + deregulation, deficits worsen, US debt and dollar jointly suppress gold, BTC receives a policy tailwind.
📌 Reference price levels
Gold: support at 3890, resistance at 3980 (currently 3930)
BTC: support at 76300, resistance at 78000 (currently 77100)
👉 Trading approach
Elections are a typical expectation gap event; do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance. Focus on comparing actual outcomes with prior market expectations, prioritize observing US debt and dollar correlations for validation, and consider light trial positions only after market signals stabilize, with strict stop-losses. Macro event markets have far more uncertainty than certainty.
Brothers, what are your thoughts Midterm elections vote today, the last polling stations close at noon Beijing time, results start coming out in the afternoon.
Polls say Democrats have a 90% chance of taking the House, and 60-70% for the Senate.
Trump's approval rating is 30%, the lowest before a midterm election since 1946.
In the 62 most fiercely contested districts, 41 Republican candidates have actively distanced themselves from him, some even removing photos with him from their campaign websites.
More troublesome is the CLARITY Act. It was already stuck in Congress and didn't pass; with the change in both chambers, probably no one will even bring it up next year.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Can't stop laughing, I found another piece of evidence that AI has no bubble.
The perspective from the US stock market guru is super interesting: Walmart and many consumer sector stocks have price-to-earnings ratios clearly higher than AI stocks. So where exactly is the bubble?
Brother Feng put the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale, drawing a single line, which clearly shows the difference!
A logarithmic scale assumes growth is exponential; after taking the log,
removing the exponential effect, stock prices in 2000 were still accelerating upward, which really was a bubble.
But currently, after removing the exponential effect, growth is basically linear.
So, the US stock market is indeed growing exponentially now, but does that necessarily mean there is a bubble?
Also, during the 2000 internet bubble, the Nasdaq 100 clearly outperformed the S&P 500. During the 2008 real estate bubble, the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100.
Currently, the gap between these two indices is relatively small. Actually, in 2021, there was a period when the Nasdaq 100's gains exceeded the S&P 500, and there was indeed a small bubble then, but with interest rate hikes, the rally returned to normal.
So, is there a bubble in AI now?
$QQQ $SPX The 1 million prize pool is not for everyone
This time, Flash Earn splits the prize pool into two parts.
$BTC pool is 410,000, $ETH pool is 590,000.
How this number is calculated:
Rewards are calculated hourly, then based on your effective subscription share.
The more you subscribe and the longer you hold, the larger your share.
The total prize pool is the upper limit, not a guaranteed minimum.
Common misunderstandings:
The pre-subscription period only gives simple coin interest.
Airdrops start counting from 3:00 PM on November 3.
Early registration does not mean early airdrop receipt.
What really determines earnings is the total subscription volume in the pool during those days.
The more people, the thinner the hourly share.
This round is most likely a race to subscribe.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC $ETH $JTO
Liquid staking changes how capital operates within the Solana ecosystem. Jito's role in this sector makes its economic model particularly interesting. The important distinction is between capital deposited into staking products and actual demand for the JTO token. Ecosystem growth does not automatically translate into proportional token value. Understanding that relationship is essential when evaluating its fundamentals.☀️ Uncle's Morning Report｜11.04
🪙 Crypto｜BTC rebounds back above $77,000, ETF outflows remain a concern BTC climbed back near $77,500, with a 24-hour range of $76,270—$78,017. Yesterday it briefly approached the $76,000 mark, and today it rose along with risk assets. However, the capital flow has not caught up: The US spot BTC ETF saw net outflows of about $643 million on October 30 and another $399 million on November 2, totaling over $1 billion in two days. Uncle's observation: Price rebound does not equal capital inflow. BTC is following the US stock market's risk appetite recovery in the short term, but continuous ETF outflows indicate institutional buying has not yet confirmed a return. Resistance is expected near $78,000; do not mistake the rebound for a full reversal. 🇺🇸 US Stock Market Overnight｜S&P halts three-day losing streak, AMD earnings give AI trading a strong boost Dow -0.38% at 51,786.72, S&P +0.36% at 7,568.92, Nasdaq +0.83% at 25,372.01. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, chip stocks broadly rebounded. The real highlight is AMD: Q3 revenue $13.377 billion, up 45% year-over-year; data center revenue $8.546 billion, up 97%; the company’s guidance for next quarter revenue also exceeded market expectations, with after-hours stock up about 8%. Apple fell about 1.9%. Uncle's observation: Yesterday[KOSPI Opens with a 2.4% Rebound: Are Chip Stocks Recovering or Reversing?]
On Tuesday, the KOSPI fell 3.59%, with foreign investors net selling about 1.5 trillion KRW. Samsung $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY dropped over 4% and 5%, respectively; overnight, U.S. chip stocks warmed up, and AMD's earnings report and Q4 guidance exceeded expectations, fueling a rebound in memory stocks. On Wednesday's open, KOSPI rose 2.43%, Hynix gained 4.8%, and Samsung rose 3.6%, which looks more like an emotional recovery after a sharp drop.
This rebound is supported by industry fundamentals: AI servers continue to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory, Samsung posted record operating profits last quarter, and the memory market's strength is not just talk.
However, the Korean index is highly concentrated in two chip giants; when chips rebound, the index appears very strong. The previous day's foreign selling also reminds us that a single-day high open has not yet repaired the funding gap. What can be confirmed now is that the U.S. chip stock recovery has triggered a bounce, but whether it will become a trend depends on whether foreign investors return to buy."There is no evidence yet of forced selling of Bitcoin," this sentence is what I care about most. I don't play with high leverage, and when I see credit tightening, I don't immediately translate it as "the market is about to crash." The Federal Reserve's survey this time says bank loan approvals are tightening and non-bank lending demand is increasing, but a tighter financing environment and actual sell-offs are two different things.
My judgment is: this is a warning on the funding side, not evidence of long-term value impairment. When borrowing becomes harder, the first to suffer are often those who rely on rollovers and leverage to maintain positions; for those holding spot long-term, it's more important now to distinguish between financing pressure and changes in the asset itself, and not to mix the two accounts.
With increased non-bank demand, I am also not in a hurry to interpret it as abundant funds. My speculation is that if borrowers are just finding money elsewhere at higher costs, then the pressure may have just shifted location and not disappeared. Whether there is actual evidence of passive selling later on carries more weight than the tension caused by the headline.
As for me, I hold and do not move, but I also won't take "no evidence yet" as "it won't happen in the future." Spot can wait slowly, but leverage may not give people that leeway. Friends holding $BTC long-term, will you treat this news as short-term noise or start paying more attention to signs of passive selling?#Скоро Circle report, can the growth of stablecoins bring income? Circle (CRCL / CRCLx) ahead of the report at the end of 2026: explosive growth in USDC issuance guarantees strong revenue ($780M+ est.), but net profit remains limited. Income from reserves in treasuries grows along with coin volumes, however, fees to partners (like Coinbase) eat up most of the margin. The asset acts as a reliable fintech proxy with a solid foundation, but high sensitivity to Fed rate changes.Circle will release its Q3 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on November 4. The market currently expects revenue to be around $790 million to $800 million, with EPS roughly between $0.36 and $0.40. My assessment of this earnings report is: total revenue is likely to be close to expectations, the reported profit may be boosted by the recognition of Arc token pre-sale income, but recurring profitability may still not be strong enough. How much valuation the market is willing to give after the earnings largely depends on whether management can clearly explain how much money Circle can ultimately retain after the USDC network expands. Revenue RLDC after deducting channel costs Previously, when discussing Circle, the focus has always been on its building of an increasingly complete dollar settlement network. Exchanges provide liquidity and trading scenarios, banks handle dollar deposits and withdrawals, payment partners bring USDC to enterprises and merchants, and Arc and CPN continue to extend into underlying settlement and payment services. This path still holds, but of course the market will still ask: how much of the network value growth can be converted into sustainable profits for the listed company? From Q2, this question has become quite concrete. Circle's total revenue was about $701 million, of which reserve income was about $668 million, accounting for about 95%. Distribution, trading, and other related costs were about $412 million, leaving about $289 million after deduction, then operating expenses are deducted. Therefore, USDC circulation growth is only the starting point of the analysis. Where the funds are placed and how much profit partners take will significantly affect the value of the same one dollar USDC Overview of Diverging Bull and Bear Sentiments! Large Holders and Retail Investors Are Completely Opposite in Thinking
Latest snapshot of bull and bear funds shows an interesting split in BTC, ETH, and CORE position sentiments. Large holders are concentrated on the bullish side, while retail investors show full divergence.
📊 Data Breakdown
✅ BTC
Overall bull-bear ratio: 1.0589 | Long positions 51.43%, Short positions 48.57%
Large holder data leans bullish, OKX and large holder position bull-bear ratios all rising; price slightly pulled back, short-term consolidation.
✅ ETH
Overall bull-bear ratio: 0.9596 | Long positions 48.97%, Short positions 51.03%
Overall bears slightly dominate, but top large holder accounts remain mainly bullish, creating a clear contrast.
✅ CORE
Overall bull-bear ratio: 0.9869 | Long positions 49.67%, Short positions 50.33%
Short positions slightly lead, OKX accounts have a high proportion of longs; long-term decline is significant, and even with positive news, sentiment remains weak.
Key Point
The biggest feature of the current market: ordinary accounts swing between bulls and bears, but top large holders cluster on the bullish side.
BTC overall shows a slight bullish sentiment advantage; ETH and CORE retail investors lean more bearish, while large holders are positioning oppositely. This sentiment split often triggers back-and-forth order sweeps, increasing the probability of a choppy market. Coupled with ongoing external news disturbances, the market is prone to rapid spikes.$BTC U.S. Midterm Election Voting Day (11/3 UTC), BTC's daily volatility was only 2.19%, smaller than the past 30-day average of 2.46%.
· 11/3 Low 76,386, High 78,066, Close 77,454, Daily +0.84%
· Today until 08:45 (Taipei) volatility only 0.91%, current price about 76,980
· Counting is still ongoing, pre-race DDHQ model gave Democrats an 84% chance to take the House, result already priced in by the market
· For comparison: 10/29 day after rate decision volatility was 4.96%
Yesterday said "Midterm elections are just noise for BTC," first day's answer: correct.
Below looks at 76,265 (October low), above looks at 78,866 (11/2 high). The real volatility window is Friday 21:30 Nonfarm Payrolls.
The election changes Congress, not BTC liquidity.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily (UTC), DDHQ#U.S. Midterms are coming, which results are worth watching? $DOGE DOGE has dropped to around 0.074, yet the long-short ratio still skyrocketed above 5.
The whales have long since pulled out clean, leaving retail investors to stubbornly hold and catch the falling knives. With the current market, the leverage at the bottom is basically lining up to get wiped out.
The market makers are drooling over this pile of long liquidation liquidity. If they don’t come down hard to wipe out these stubborn holders, there’s no way to see a bottom.
#DOGE
$DOGE
👇#Strategy buyback scale exceeds coin purchase by three times, treasury strategy shifts? $ETH
Last week, Strategy spent $65.5 million to increase its holdings by 811 BTC (average price about $80,846), marking the largest single-week coin purchase since September, with total holdings rising to 849,300 BTC. However, what attracted more market attention was its simultaneous use of $208 million to repurchase preferred shares, with the buyback amount more than three times the coin purchase scale.
This is not a shift to hoarding coins, but a treasury strategy transition from aggressive expansion to refined operation. Previously, the arbitrage model of "issuing shares to buy coins" declined in cost-effectiveness as the stock price premium narrowed. Repurchasing discounted preferred shares can optimize the balance sheet and stabilize the coin content per share. Essentially, this is a risk control upgrade, and the long-term direction of hoarding coins remains unchanged.
Currently, strategies of crypto treasury enterprises are clearly diverging: Strive is financing BTC accumulation through preferred shares with a 15% annual interest; BitMine continues to increase ETH holdings, with total holdings reaching 6.06 million; Metaplanet is repaying debt early and raising its coin purchase budget to $212 million. Institutions are not coordinating to pump the market but are independently allocating based on their own cost structures.
On the market front, BTC remains pressured at the 20-day moving average (about $80,260), and a breakout is needed before a trend reversal can be confirmed; ETH lacks an independent mainline and overall still follows BTC fluctuations. Institutional accumulation does not directly equate to immediate price increases. $BTC Election night has passed, BTC is still around 77,000: First, look at three things
Last night was the US midterm election voting day. BTC is $77,339 tonight, down 0.23%; ETH is $2,286, up 0.54%. The divergence continues: one remains under pressure, the other turns positive, each moving in its own direction.
As results gradually come out, someone in Orbit has dug up history: BTC fell after the last three midterm elections — down 48% in 2014, 50% in 2018, and 16% in 2022; the prediction market gives the Democrats a 95% chance of taking the House.
I’m not in a hurry to treat these three samples as a rule. First, the sample size is only three, which is too small; second, the seats lost each time differ — in 2014 both chambers were lost, while in the last two only the House was lost; third, the drop ranges from 16% to 50%, such a wide span that averaging is meaningless.
Looking at the results, taking them directly as direction means treating election day as a trading signal. Before the price moves, first look at the divergence itself, don’t rush to change your judgment.
After election night, do you first look at the results or the price?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Coin prices quoted from Orbit’s topic page tonight; historical performance after the last three elections and prediction market probabilities quoted from a post in Orbit’s information feed tonight, with attribution noted when reposted. No price points, no calls, no position cards. Contract trading is extremely risky, leverage responsibly.)Strategy delivered a conflicted treasury report last week
From October 26 to November 1, the company used proceeds from common stock financing to buy 811 $BTC, about $65.5 million, at an average price of about 80,846, raising total holdings to 849,327 coins
However, in the same week, it spent about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, more than three times the amount spent on buying coins, with cash in USD dropping from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million
Institutions haven't been supportive either
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this is much smaller than the roughly $398.6 million outflow on November 2, indicating a slowing outflow pace
My view is that Strategy seems more focused on repairing the preferred stock liability structure this week, rather than fully increasing positions
In the short term, don't treat this as a bullish trend signal
On the market, $BTC in the Asian morning session fell from around 78,000 to about 77,000, with a 24-hour high/low of approximately 78,049/76,360, and a funding rate of about 0.01%
Short term support is first seen at 76,800, with several probes near this level this morning; breaking it means reducing positions
Resistance above is at 77,500 first; holding above that targets 78,000
Stop loss is set below 76,500, with a target initially at 78,000, keeping position size small as usual #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ $BTC and $ETH both surged with high volume last night, then fell back together before dawn.
BTC had the largest volume in recent times on the 4-hour candle at 8 PM last night, rebounded to just below the previous high and then stopped moving. After that, it gradually declined with shrinking volume, now hovering just below the 77 round number, one step away from the previous low.
ETH is even more typical: at the same time, a volume spike two to three times the usual pulsed above the previous high. I exited my position during that candle yesterday, but before dawn, three shrinking volume bearish candles completely gave back the entire pulse.
The volume-price structure of both coins is exactly the same now. The surge volumes are not small, but none of the candles held the price; the selling pressure above was genuinely hammered out.
Interestingly, looking at the order book, BTC's sell orders are three times thicker than buy orders, while ETH is the opposite with buy orders more than four times thicker. Both still have positive funding rates, and no bulls have withdrawn. BTC is close to the previous low, and ETH is near the starting point of last night's pulse. #US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations
#US October Nonfarm Released: Is There Still a Chance for a Rate Cut? US Stock Market Analysis: Employment Data Pushes Gold Down, Chips Supported by AI
Voting is underway on Election Day, and the market is honestly split. The Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, stopping a three-day losing streak, but all gains were in chips and AI — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.64%, AMD after-hours +7.6%, while Apple was hit by storage cost warnings, down 1.9%.
The real macro protagonist is the bond market.
September JOLTS job openings were 7.523 million, above the expected 7.1 million, and factory orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, also beating expectations. Once the data came out, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.948%, approaching the 5% psychological level, the dollar rose, gold was pushed down near 3920, and safe-haven metals bowed under the pressure of "higher rates for longer."
The transmission chain is clear: strong employment data → yields rise → gold under pressure, growth stock valuations compressed → capital only dares to flow into AI hardware with earnings backing. VIX closed at 20.8; panic has eased but not fully.
This is not a full risk-on; it’s selective buying. Hedge funds are still adding shorts amid the AI rebound, so don’t mistake a repair for a reversal; wait to see how the open holds.$ETH US and Iran reportedly made mutual concessions, $ETH surged to 2,300 but only held for a few minutes. The first to get hit by this spike were two old acquaintances on Hyperliquid.
At 21:33, ETH touched 2,309.4 on Hyperliquid, BTC touched 77,864. AguilaTrades cut 100 BTC short positions above 77,800 between 21:31–21:32, losing about $35,000.
Three minutes after cutting, he shorted again. By 22:00, the short position was 250.74 BTC, 25 more than before the cut, 40x leverage, average price 77,482, liquidation price 78,762.7, less than $1,400 from the current price.
Maji stood on the other side. Since 20:23, he added 375 ETH long positions, now 3,100 ETH at 25x leverage, liquidation price raised from 2,227 in the afternoon to 2,240, only about $47 from the current price.
One just got hurt but added shorts, the other keeps adding longs as the price rises. Tonight, geopolitical news can flip at any moment; no matter which way it flips, someone will get hit first.
If the news reverses again, who do you think will blow up first: the short seller Aguila or the long holder Maji?#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the US compliant market
The US compliance for perpetual contracts is no longer stuck at the regulatory hurdle. On 11/3, CFTC Chairman Selig issued a statement that single-stock perpetuals can be listed on CFTC-registered exchanges starting that day, provided the exchange has also filed a securities futures notice registration with the SEC. I just finished reading the original statement on the official website.
For those holding HYPE and OKB, this means US retail investors now have an onshore entry point for perpetual buying. However, according to the plan Star mentioned on 10/29, after ICE gets approval, it will have to establish a separate trading and clearing system. The funds will first go to ICE, and how much will flow onto the chain is still uncertain.
On May 29 this year, CFTC first approved Kalshi's BTC perpetual, and now it has expanded from crypto to single stocks, making two steps in half a year. The statement did not mention ICE, Trade.xyz, or OKX by name; the agreement among the three states "after approval," so the remaining step still needs to be obtained by themselves.
Going forward, keep an eye on which exchange posts single-stock perpetuals first on the CFTC website and whether ICE submits materials. If by the end of the year none of the three announces any approval progress, I will admit that I was too optimistic about the regulatory hurdle loosening.Market share dropped to 59.29%, indicating that currently risk-averse funds are not clustering around $BTC
Crypto, stocks, and gold $XAU are all declining on three fronts, liquidity is down, what will the market use to rise?
It depends on the election news,
A piece of good news will cause a rebound,
But a piece of bad news,
Is like a waterfall plunging down three thousand feet.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 2026 earnings report before the market opens on November 4, with market attention focused on whether the growth of its stablecoin USDC can effectively translate into actual profits.
As the circulation scale of USDC expands and payment services develop, the company's revenue and profitability are expected to be reflected. Forecast markets show that 67% of participants believe its Q3 performance will exceed expectations.
However, there are concerns behind the growth. Although USDC circulation is increasing, its profitability heavily depends on the interest rates of reserve assets. In the context of a declining interest rate environment, the company faces pressure from reduced reserve income. Additionally, distribution and transaction costs incurred to expand business payments may also erode its profit margins.
The core focus of this earnings report is whether Circle can demonstrate its ability to achieve stable revenue growth by overcoming the challenges of declining interest rates and distribution costs while continuing to expand the scale of USDC.$UNI The UNI long-short ratio has directly shot up to 2.48, the whole market is full of stubborn bulls holding long positions.
The locked value in the on-chain V4 pool has been drained by 29% in just one week.
Big players aren't buying at all; they're quietly moving their funds back to their wallets.
The pool's base has already been drained, and the market is crowded with high-leverage long positions.
Just a small shakeout of a few cents will turn these bulls into ready fuel for a liquidation stampede.
Holding long stubbornly at this level is purely handing over principal to the shorts.
#UNI
$UNI
👇#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
Palantir delivered its strongest Q3 performance since going public, yet its stock price weakened against the trend. The core issue is the expectation gap between "explosive current earnings and slowing forward indicators."
The fundamentals are nearly flawless: Q3 total revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations; U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing government business for the first time in a single quarter. AI commercialization shifted from government-funded to enterprise-paid, marking a clear structural inflection point. GAAP net profit was $1.128 billion, EPS of $0.44 exceeded expectations, and the full-year revenue guidance was simultaneously raised to $8.53 billion.
What weighed on the stock price were the forward signals: total new contract value for the quarter increased only 6% year-over-year, U.S. commercial new contracts rose 11%, a sharp slowdown from the previous quarter's 153% growth; remaining performance obligations were flat quarter-over-quarter, the first time since Q1 2023. The market worries that the current high growth is driven by fulfillment of existing contracts, casting doubt on future incremental growth. The company explained this as contract durations shortening, but institutional opinions remain divided. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $233.
In high-valuation sectors, trading is never about current earnings but about growth sustainability. Whether the remaining contract value rebounds next quarter is the watershed test of growth quality.
$PLTR BTC, ETH, and SOL all rose simultaneously in this set of 24-hour contract data, but the capital structure is skewed toward shorts, forming a fairly obvious "price rises while positions lean short" phenomenon. The coexistence of price increases and short-side leadership indicates that the long-short divergence has not yet disappeared. BTC's current price is 77883.9, up 1.4%. Long positions amount to 19.61 billion, accounting for 49.32%; short positions amount to 20.15 billion, accounting for 50.68%. Shorts slightly exceed longs, temporarily resembling a narrow-range contest rather than a one-sided bet. ETH rose 1.82%, currently priced at 2291.74. Long positions total 11.65 billion, accounting for 49.96%; short positions total 11.66 billion, accounting for 50.04%. Both sides are nearly equal, and the price increase has not yet brought a clear advantage to long capital. SOL performed relatively stronger, up 2.18%, priced at 93.62. However, its long positions are only 2.13 billion, accounting for 47.10%, while short positions reach 2.39 billion, accounting for 52.90%, the largest short-side proportion difference among the three. 💡 My view. What this data confirms is: all three assets have seen price increases, but contract capital has not simultaneously shifted to longs. Some capital may continue to hold shorts during the rebound; if prices continue to rise, these short positions will face greater volatility pressure. However, based solely on the long-short ratio, one cannot directly infer a definite subsequent rise or fall. What is more worth watching next is whether the short-side proportion continues to expand as prices rise, and when the capital structure begins to tilt toward longs. If pricesThe hottest phrase in the group these days is "Binance is about to be drained."
I checked the data: BTC balance dropped from 732,000 to 711,000, a decrease of 21,100, accounting for less than 3% of the total balance. Ninety-seven out of a hundred people didn't move at all, and the remaining three just relocated.
After the withdrawal channel, which was closed for several days, reopened, the accumulated demand surged out all at once, looking like a stampede. $BTC is still the same $BTC, $BNB still accounts for 18% of reserves, $ETH accounts for 6%, with $139.7 billion lying there.
What might really be drained is some people's judgment.Attention! There may be an interesting pattern in the historical trend of the US midterm elections and $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the times when the market is most panicked often also nurture the opportunity for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀
$BTC On November 1st, Binance reopened withdrawals, and within two days, the exchange's BTC balance dropped from 732,000 to 711,000, a net outflow of 21,100 BTC. Over twenty thousand bitcoins leaving a single platform at once is a significant volume.
But the same data also states: this 21,100 accounts for less than 3% of the total balance. 97% of BTC didn’t move at all. The story isn’t about a run, but a shift — withdrawal demands that were stuck for days were released in a concentrated manner, moving funds from one address to another without leaving the market.
What’s even more worth noting is the remaining holdings. Binance still holds $139.7 billion in on-chain assets, with $BTC and USDT together making up nearly 60%, $BNB accounting for 18%, and $ETH 6%. This structure indicates two things: the reserve quality is highly dependent on Bitcoin’s price, so when BTC falls, the reserve size shrinks accordingly; and the platform’s own asset $BNB, which makes up nearly one-fifth, is both a confidence anchor and the most vulnerable part.
Putting these two points together, the short-term outflow of 21,100 BTC reflects sentiment, while the long-term safety margin is determined by the composition of that $139.7 billion reserve. What matters is not how many coins left today, but how much of the reserve is made up of highly volatile assets.
Another point to consider: if the next withdrawal peak coincides with a BTC price drop, the reserve measured in dollars will shrink simultaneously. At that time, when you see the balance decrease again, can you tell if people are fleeing or if it’s just the price falling?[AI infrastructure collectively rebounded after yesterday's drop, with quite a wide range of gains]
The Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq $QQQ rose 0.83%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 2.6%; this is not a market-wide risk-on move, as funds clearly returned to AI-related assets. Optical communications, storage, and major chips mostly gained between 2% and 8%, while Neocloud and mining companies like CIFR, HUT, and WULF surged double digits, resembling a high-beta rebound after recent sell-offs, with HUT also adding trading expectations ahead of its earnings report.
However, a stock price rebound is not the same as fundamental improvement. CIFR's Q3 revenue dropped about 63% year-over-year to $26.7 million, with data center business just beginning to contribute revenue; book profits mainly came from non-cash gains on warrants, and operations remain unprofitable. Funds are betting on their future ability to turn power and data centers into AI leasing income, which naturally causes more volatility than chip stocks.
This big bullish candle now repairs sentiment and positioning but has not yet solved industry issues like financing, construction progress, and customer realization. If future earnings reports can convert contracted capacity into actual revenue, the rebound will have fundamental support; otherwise, double-digit gains may just be a sharp bounce after a deep decline. The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election occurs at the end of a bear market; this was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been earlier $BTC 🔥 Attention! There might be an interesting pattern between the US midterm elections and the historical trend of $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀#d#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
US stock market news analysis: AMD surged 7% after hours, but the top trading volume was surprisingly the declining Apple
Last night, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, looking lively, but don’t get carried away—this is a rebound after consecutive declines, not a trend reversal.
The most interesting is the trading volume leaderboard.
Number one is Apple, down 1.9%, with a trading volume of 20.2 billion. The new CEO’s debut showed record revenue and profit, but storage chip price hikes directly suppressed next quarter’s gross margin, so capital voted with their feet.
Nvidia is second, up 2.29%, with a trading volume of 18.5 billion. The reason is simple: Marvell’s $100 billion acquisition of Lumentum, personally approved by Jensen Huang, continuing the optical communication narrative.
Micron is third, up 2.58%, with a trading volume of 17.5 billion. The storage price hike is positive for Micron but negative for Apple—same event, two sides of the trade.
The real news star is AMD.
The stock rose 3.65%, with a trading volume of 14.9 billion, and after hours surged another 7% due to Q4 revenue guidance of 17 billion, crushing the expected 16.3 billion, with data center revenue nearly doubling year-over-year.
Oracle ranks fifth, up 5.85%, but essentially it’s an 11% discounted share placement raising 9.9 billion to cover AI capital expenditures. The rise is due to “financing landing,” not “fundamentals improving.”
Money is coming back, but selectively. Apple is held down by storage price hikes, while AMD and Nvidia continue to push the AI narrative upward The market continues to weaken, but there is still considerable capital entering to buy the dip; this kind of divergence in the market is worth noting. Bitcoin ($BTC) fell 1.04% in the past 24 hours, with a price of 76,938, ranging between 76,700 and 78,867, a buy-sell ratio of 2.52, and open interest contracts at 2.57 billion. The high buy-sell ratio indicates that the number of buyers far exceeds sellers, yet the price keeps declining. In the past four hours, the total liquidation volume was 20.583 million, the vast majority of which were long positions amounting to 20.44 million. Every time the price dips to 76,700, it attracts buying interest, but rebound attempts are suppressed, and dip-buying longs continuously face liquidation. Ethereum ($ETH) shows a similar trend, down 0.43%, quoted at 2,249, ranging from 2,237 to 2,318, with a buy-sell ratio of 2.38, open interest contracts at 1.436 billion, and four-hour long liquidations of 7.92 million. The 2,237 level is the current key support; if broken, the downside space will further open. SOL ($SOL) is the weakest among the three, down 2.79%, priced at 91.31, fluctuating between 90.87 and 95.89, with a buy-sell ratio as high as 3.51, open interest contracts at 330 million, and four-hour long liquidations of 4.044 million. The weakest coin is attracting the most aggressive dip-buying funds, which is not a reversal signal. The essence of the market is continuous rotation of longs: longs just liquidated are quickly replaced by new longs, maintaining a high buy-sell ratio, which does not represent genuine buying support. SubsequentlySPCX's double top broke the neckline this morning.
At 23:00, using 211,992 units to push $SPCX to 142.99, the highest of the day, which wasn't touched again for ten hours. At 05:00, spent 48,917 units to rush to 142.81, and at 06:00, only 13,202 units brushed 142.73, both times missing by 0.18.
At 07:00, a single 25,410-unit move, only one-eighth of the 23:00 volume, cut from 142.62 down to 141.14, closing at 141.19, swallowing all activity in two hours. The 200,000 units above couldn't push it, but 25,000 units below smashed through.
At 08:00, it directly pierced down to 139.93, breaking the neckline at 140.86 between the two tops, current price 139.95 close to MA20 at 139.72.
+1.60%, 24h range 142.99 / 136.70.
The pattern is not a signal until the neckline is broken. Now waiting for a pullback: if the rebound at 140.6~141.0 fails to reclaim 140.86, go short with a stop loss at 141.60, target 138.73, break level 136.70, risk/reward 2.6/5.1.
If the 1H candle closes with volume above 142.99 (≥40,000 units), buy on a pullback to 142.3~142.6, stop loss 141.60, target 145.12, risk/reward 3.4.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)- The 3K intraday low has been pulled back, the first layer of support is basically holding, but what really concerns me is not this lower shadow. On the derivatives side, has the "ETF bleed" already been traded out in advance? Last night while watching the market, I kept an eye on two things: BTC rebounded from around 76.3K, with 78.5K–80K as the first recovery zone, and above that 81.8K–82K is a more critical level; below, 75K–74K is the second buffer zone. The other thing is the completed US spot ETF data from November 2, showing BTC net outflow of $398.6 million and ETH net outflow of $139.7 million. The numbers are not small, but the price did not continue to collapse, indicating that some of the selling pressure on the spot side has already been priced in by the derivatives market in advance. My own feeling is that this looks more like a self-repair on the leverage side rather than a sudden return of spot buying. BTC holding the first support indicates that shorts are taking profits at low levels; however, if the volume cannot break through the 78.5K–80K area above, the rebound is likely to turn into a technical pullback after deleveraging. ETH is also experiencing ETF outflows simultaneously, but its elasticity usually lags BTC by half a beat, and altcoins will wait until BTC digests the pressure near 82K before daring to follow. The current rhythm is: BTC sets the direction, ETH follows the sentiment, and altcoins watch for when risk appetite truly warms up. The more bullish path lies in the derivatives side #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The midterm elections essentially price in U.S. fiscal and regulatory policies, with control of both chambers directly impacting the short-term trends of U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and BTC.
The market baseline expectation is a divided Congress, with each party controlling one chamber. Large-scale tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and aggressive regulation are unlikely to pass, and this scenario is largely priced in. Two types of unexpected outcomes will amplify volatility:
- Republicans sweep both chambers: Expectations for tax cuts and deregulation rise, deficit expansion pushes up Treasury yields and the dollar, gold comes under pressure, the tech AI sector benefits, and BTC strengthens along with risk assets.
- Democrats sweep both chambers: Direction towards tax increases and stronger regulation, deficit contraction leads to lower Treasury yields, gold benefits; increased crypto regulatory pressure rises, bearish for BTC.
Historical patterns are for reference only: U.S. stocks generally rise in the 12 months following elections, but this year’s pre-election pullback is far below the historical average, leaving limited room for recovery. BTC’s past three cycles saw an average gain of about 54% one year after elections, but the median decline was 31% in the first three months post-election, coinciding with halving cycles, so the trend is not purely election-driven.
On policy, the legislative direction of the CLARITY Act will be decided by the new Congress; a divided Congress is somewhat positive for stocks but prolongs policy uncertainty for crypto.
In trading, avoid heavy positions ahead of time; prioritize observing the linkage between Treasuries and the dollar for confirmation, then cautiously test with light positions once signals stabilize. The core of the midterms remains Fed policy, corporate earnings, and ETF fund flows; elections are more of a sentiment catalyst.
$BTC $ETH $XAU When I saw this news, my first reaction was to add a column to the watchlist rather than label the market as "bullish." After learning quantitative analysis, I have a habit: when encountering something new, I always want to break it down into conditions 🤖
According to Cointelegraph, the CFTC has approved the trading of stock perpetual futures on U.S. exchanges, bringing a popular product form from the crypto market into traditional markets, but related legal disputes are still ongoing. Both approval and disputes coexist, so I need to note down both conditions.
If I were to write this as a strategy, I would set it as: if regulatory approval happens, and the product is actually launched with sustained trading activity, then increase attention to this sector. I think this has more significance for the form of perpetual contract products than for the direct price impact on crypto assets. Stocks are the underlying assets; just because the word "perpetual" is used doesn't mean the potential demand should be attributed to the crypto space.
The advantage of this rule is that I won't be misled by headlines and can distinguish between "allowed to trade" and "actively traded." The loophole is that the signal might be slow, and active trading doesn't necessarily mean controllable risk; if legal disputes affect product arrangements, then the reference value of historical data might also be discounted, which is my speculation.
What I want to focus on next is the specific launch arrangements and progress of disputes, first completing the observation conditions, and not rushing to translate regulatory news into price direction.