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🚨 BITCOIN IS HOLDING ON… BUT WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING?
The crypto market is sending a warning that traders shouldn't ignore. 👀
On November 2, US spot crypto ETFs recorded approximately $545.8M in net outflows:
🔴 Bitcoin ETFs: -$398.6M
🔴 Ethereum ETFs: -$139.7M
📉 Market sentiment: Extreme Fear
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still holding around the $77K region.
Here's what I'm watching:
🟠 BTC: Can buyers defend $76K–$76.3K? 🔵 ETH:
#CryptoMarket #OKX #Trading #ETF #CryptoNews
#DailyOrbit The overall market is suppressed by bearish sentiment, compounded by the impact of the Binance hack incident, leading to a continuous weakening of overall risk appetite. This is the most core macro environment at present. After the theft incident, market confidence was hit, and funds collectively shifted to risk aversion. Altcoins and Meme launch tracks, being highly elastic categories, were the first to be sold off.
$PONS itself relies on speculative heat and the Meme wealth effect for support, with very high beta. Once the market shifts into a bear market expectation, these thematic coins become the priority targets for fund withdrawal. Even with a built-in buyback and burn mechanism, they cannot withstand systemic selling pressure.
Looking at its foundation: the Meme coin issuance heat is rapidly cooling down, and platform transaction fees are declining accordingly. The value anchor of PONS is the number of new listings and transaction fees. The higher the heat, the more new low-quality coins are launched, the more active the trading, and the stronger the buyback support.
The low-quality coin cycle comes quickly and recedes even faster. Now fewer new coins are being launched, most crash immediately upon listing, and players are unwilling to rush into new coins. Coupled with the early on-chain subsidy decline on Robinhood Chain, with less external traffic support, platform revenue is further shrinking, naturally weakening the buyback strength.
The entire positive feedback loop has loosened. After the heat fades, it is difficult for it to independently drive a market rally.
⚠️This is only a market logic review and does not constitute any trading advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH family, Ethereum current price is 2292. From the chart, ETH has been steadily declining with several rebounds mercilessly crushed, especially the big bearish candle at the end of October that directly created a low of 2172, which probably scared many people at the time. But the good news is, after this bottom test, the market did not continue to blindly drop but formed a sideways consolidation structure at the low level. Simply put, the bears are weakening, and the bulls are starting to organize a counterattack. Although it’s not yet time for a sharp rally, this kind of low-volume sideways consolidation often signals a trend reversal. As long as the key support holds, the upcoming market might be more optimistic than expected. Volatility is compressing, and a directional choice is imminent. If it can effectively break through and hold above the midline, the upside space will gradually open.
Using a range trading plus breakout follow strategy:
Longs: Light position buy on pullback to 2270-2280 support. Stop loss at 2220, target 2350-2400. If it strongly breaks 2350, add positions accordingly.
Shorts: Enter short positions on rebound resistance at 2350-2370. Stop loss at 2400, target the lower boundary of the range. If it breaks below the key support at 2250, follow short lightly.
Liying’s logic: Light trial positions in the consolidation range, heavy positions after breakout confirmation #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 A $6.09M loss and straight back into aggressive longs. That's conviction or a dangerous refusal to accept a bad trade.
From a technical standpoint, reopening at a lower entry only improves the setup if the market structure supports a reversal. Otherwise, he's simply resetting his exposure and taking another shot in the same direction.
A cheaper entry doesn't automatically make a trade better. Risk management still comes first. $BTC family! Bitcoin is currently priced at 77,580, representing a typical recovery after a sharp drop. The market is at a delicate crossroads: above lies dense trapped positions and moving average resistance, below is the previous low support at 76,270. This sideways consolidation is setting up for the next major move. The 2-hour chart overall remains weak, with the EMA showing a typical recovery phase after a bearish alignment. Although the MACD bullish side is resisting, bears still control the market. The middle band is at 77,411, with the price hovering near it, and the lower band support at 76,303. If the price fails to break above the middle band effectively, it is likely to continue testing support downward.
Long and short dual practical strategies:
Trend-following short: Short on rebound resistance at 78,000-78,200, stop loss at 78,500, target 76,270-76,500
Counter-trend long: Light long positions on pullback support at 76,300, stop loss at 76,000, target 77,400
Liying reminder: The current long-short battle is intense, strictly execute with stop loss #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 🔥 Attention: There may be an interesting pattern in the historical trend of the US midterm elections and $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed out about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed out about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed out about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the most panic in the market often also breeds the opportunity for the next cycle.
This time, will $BTC repeat this pattern?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨On the eve of the US stock market opening, liquidity currents surge
8:30 PM
On the eve of the US stock market opening
BTC repeatedly tests the bottom around 77600
Latest liquidation & order book data
Open interest across the network plunges sharply this week
Market maker depth nearly halved
Spot buy orders severely lacking
Price is firmly suppressed at 77600
$BTC | Tug of war at 77600
Previous reference 81500
After a big drop, bulls are severely weakened
78500 turns into strong resistance
If the US stock market opens without reclaiming 78200
Beware of a downward spike testing the 76000 defense line
$ETH | Weak consolidation at 2220
Previous reference 2450
Stolen tokens selling pressure overhead
Spot buy orders scarce
Once the 2180 defense line breaks
It may accelerate down to 2100
$SOL | Lost the 100 mark, retreating to 93
Previous reference 105
Black swan deleveraging drags it below 100
Absorption depth shrinks significantly
Tokens loosen, rebounds likely to quickly pull back
Summary
Open interest sharply down + market maker depth halved
BTC volume shrinks while bottoming, altcoins weaker in absorption
Funds still searching for bottom at low levels
US stock market opening storm is imminent
Stabilizing the bottom has not yet been achieved
If this review is helpful, please like!
76000 bottom rebound press 1, directly break through 75000 press 2
This is only a market review, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ ETH
🔷 ETH has fallen back to $2,250! ETF outflows are the next point to watch
📊 ETH is around $2,253 to $2,256, about -1% in 24 hours (KuCoin, Pickaxe); ETH ETF also saw outflows on November 2 (Altcoin Buzz).
🧮 About +11.0% from $2,500, about -11.2% from $2,000 (my own calculation).
🔍 $2,000 is the key support previously mentioned by Coingabbar.
Price is near $2,250, whether it can hold, I'm not sure, I might be wrong.
📍 The levels I'm watching:
• $2,500: upper round number resistance
• $2,250: current level
• $2,000: lower round number support
Do you think ETH will return to $2,500 first, or test $2,000 first?
$ETH $BTC #BTCETHETFOutflows #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC $ETH $OKB This is the brutal side of trading volatile assets like $ZEC , privacy coins
Price can sweep key liquidity zones, trigger stop losses and force traders out just before reversing. From a technical standpoint, chasing every candle without a clear invalidation level and risk management can get expensive.
The chart doesn't care where your entry is. Protecting capital has to come first.$FIL FIL's real daily storage income is only 4 yuan, yet its valuation can still hang at over a billion dollars.
Nodes and miners get tokens, and the first thing they do is sell them to exchange for fiat to pay electricity and hardware costs. The busier the business runs, the heavier the selling pressure to cash out.
There is basically no capital coming in off-exchange to absorb this; retail investors' little sentiment can't handle miners' daily rigid sell orders. As long as there is any slight rebound in this market, it only provides liquidity to the shorts.
#FIL
$FIL
👇👇$BTC Market Update: $BTC fell 1.04% to $76,938. Despite a rising buy/sell ratio and $2.57B open interest, heavy long liquidations ($8.47M vs. $90K shorts) show strong selling pressure. Repeated dip-buying attempts are getting wiped out, signaling continued bearish momentum.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Today, mainstream cryptocurrencies generally pulled back, with $BTC dropping to $77,046, $ETH falling back to $2,268, and $SOL and $DOGE also weakening in sync. OKB's decline was even more pronounced, reaching 3.15%.
This downturn seems to be influenced by multiple factors: pressure on US tech stocks, outflows from BTC ETFs, long contract liquidations, plus uncertainty brought by the US midterm elections, causing market sentiment to clearly turn cautious.
Notably, OKB's drop is significantly larger, suggesting short-term buying might be weak, but there is currently no confirmation of any specific negative news.
I believe there is no need to rush to bottom-fish or panic blindly for now. The focus going forward will be on ETF fund flows and whether market buying can recover.
Do you think this is just a short-term correction or the start of a new round of decline?
$BTC $ETH $OKB $SOL $DOGE
#BTC #ETH #OKB #SOL #cryptocurrency Fear index drops to 20, should BTC shorts be more cautious?
When market sentiment enters an extreme fear zone, the most common mistake is to mistake pessimism for a short signal. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is only 20, BTC is consolidating with low volume near $77,000, and market risk appetite has clearly cooled down.
But the fear index measures market sentiment, not price direction. Extreme fear can appear during a downtrend continuation or at a phase bottom. If combined with oversold conditions and crowded short positions, a rebound may trigger short covering, amplifying short-term volatility.
My view remains cautiously bearish, but I won’t blindly short at extreme sentiment levels. I prefer to wait for the price to rebound to resistance zones, observe volume, open interest, and funding rates, then look for opportunities with a more reasonable risk-reward ratio.
Remember: being bearish is a judgment, chasing shorts is an action. You can be right on direction but lose money if you enter at the wrong time. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ $BTC With the US elections happening today, these are the liquidity levels worth keeping on the radar.
These zones align with previous local highs and lows, where larger positions were likely built and stop-loss liquidity has accumulated.
Below BTC: $76.2K and $75K.
Above BTC: $82.6K, $85K and $87.5K.
Expect volatility around these levels. Whichever side gets swept could set the tone for Bitcoin's next major move. 🔥 Don't just focus on GPUs; the next stop for AI might be "where the data lives"
GPUs are like engines, but in the inference era, data transport and storage are equally critical bottlenecks. Recently, three US-listed companies have moved to link "compute power—memory—storage" into a single chain.
NVIDIA and Oracle plan to expand the Vera Rubin supercluster to multi-exaFLOP scale, with a strong demand vision, but the "expansion plan" does not mean the equipment has been delivered or revenue realized yet; the pace depends on future fulfillment.
Micron's HBM4 has been shipped in large volumes to key customers, indicating that high-bandwidth memory is a must-have for AI servers. However, high profits will attract competitors to expand production, and after supply increases, the bargaining power in the memory segment may change.
SanDisk's data center business is even more worth watching: a 61% quarter-over-quarter growth conveys more information than a "1-for-8 stock split." A stock split only changes the price per share without creating value; whether orders and profits can continue is the anchor for the storage segment.
Among the three, $NVDA is the demand barometer, $MU represents bandwidth elasticity, and $SNDK is the storage catch-up. I am more concerned whether AI capital expenditure can extend from training to inference and continuous updates; compute power, memory, SSD—who will hit the supply-demand inflection point first? Which company do you favor more? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $XAU Gold Market Analysis 11/3
Yesterday, just after mentioning the opportunity for a reversal between 3820-3900, a big bullish candle appeared, rebounding about $90. Currently, it is facing resistance at 3975, a level similar to 4066. If the price cannot break through, it will still be a rebound.🚀 BTC IS RECOVERING — BUT $78,000 IS THE REAL TEST!
Bitcoin is showing renewed strength, holding above three rising hourly moving averages as buying volume picks up. 📈
But there's still a key resistance to watch.
🎯 Bullish levels:
$77,726 – Immediate resistance
$77,884 – Next upside target
$78,000 – Key psychological level
⚠️ Support levels:
$77,540 – Near-term support
$77,327 – Deeper pullback zone
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook
#DailyOrbit #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Today is the US midterm election!!!
Let me talk about the possible outcomes
1. The Republican Party retains control of both chambers of Congress
Then Bitcoin will soar, directly breaking through to 87000. This is the most favorable for advancing crypto policies.
2. The Democratic Party takes both chambers
Then it's over, various policies and restrictions will be unfavorable to Bitcoin, possibly dropping back near 60000 USD. It may make the CLARITY Act difficult to pass in the next two years!!!
3. If the two parties each control one chamber
This is the most likely scenario, slightly positive for Bitcoin, but not much, Bitcoin will also rebound.
Which result do you think it will be? $BTC $ETH $ZEC 美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Is tonight's pump a move ahead of expectations, or a pump and dump? What do you think? Stablecoin growth faces challenges, is there still a chance for the next altcoin rally?
Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings report, and USDC once experienced redemptions exceeding issuance. What the market truly cares about is not the scale but whether growth can be converted into profit.
Looking at the crypto market, BTC (the big brother) is around $77,643, ETH (the slow aristocrat) about $2,296, SOL about $93.18. XRP and PEPE have strengthened in the short term, but SOL and ZEC remain under pressure, showing clear altcoin divergence.
My view: Stablecoins are the lifeblood of the market, but capital flow does not mean capital has entered. Earnings reports will show realization, and the market will show support.
Don’t rush to chase hot topics; watch volume for breakouts and watch support for pullbacks. Real opportunities are often reserved for those with patience!
Personal market record sharing, not investment advice.
$BTC $ZEC $SOL
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $TAO at $226 👀
Two years of lower highs. A rising support line. Price is getting squeezed into a decisive zone.
A breakout could open the path toward $500, with $900–$1,000 as an extreme bull-case scenario—not a guarantee.
The AI narrative is everywhere, but conviction gets tested when the chart looks ugly.
Will TAO finally break this compression, or lose rising support first?Elon Musk spent $446 million to support the Republican Party! With the U.S. midterm elections coming, is BTC about to change again?
Brothers, the U.S. midterm elections officially kick off on November 3! This time, it's not just the two parties fighting for Congress; Wall Street and tech billionaires are also betting big!
The most outrageous is Musk! As of October 23, political donations totaled about $446 million, mainly supporting the Republican Party! Soros's camp also invested over $100 million, and Bloomberg is also pouring money to support the Democrats!
With money burning like this, the Republicans might not necessarily hold on!
First scenario: Republicans hold both chambers, making it possibly easier for Trump to push policies later, which could boost sentiment in the crypto market!
Second scenario: Democrats take both chambers, escalating policy battles, and BTC might face short-term pressure!
Third scenario: The two parties split control of the chambers, limiting policy progress but possibly reducing uncertainty from radical policies.
My judgment: This time, I’m not betting on the election results but am more wary of BTC pumping then dumping based on news!
Don’t forget, it’s not uncommon for positive news to be priced in early and then realized with a pullback!
Who do you think will take Congress this time? Will $BTC $ETH $ZEC rise first or fall first? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL
One thing was buried in the previous few lines: Bullish has set the initial network for tokenizing stocks as Solana, Aptos, and Ethereum. The press release did not mention any price reaction.
On the same day, there was another report: about 3,600 Binance-stolen SOL entered the HitBTC hot wallet. While stocks are being moved onto the chain, stolen coins are being funneled out, all happening within the same hour.
SOL climbed back from 90.79 to 93.2, up 0.8% in 24 hours. But the 1-hour volume shrank from 775,000 to 116,000. The fee rate is -0.0009%, slightly negative. Holdings are $337 million, a bit more than yesterday's $326 million.
Holdings increased, volume shrank, fee rate slightly negative. This combination looks like shorts are covering, not longs buying. Without volume returning, the 93 level is just a rebound.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Midterm Crypto Outlook: 3 Key Signals
1. Congress: Watch House and Senate control. Republican control could favor crypto legislation; a Democratic sweep may slow it.
2. $BTC : Watch Bitcoin’s reaction to election uncertainty and interest rates.
3. $ETH vs SOL: $BTC may show more resilience, while SOL could face higher volatility depending on the outcome.
Bottom Line: Don't chase the first post-election move. Watch the expectation
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $BTC
Breaking news says IBIT had a net redemption of $405 million in one day, the largest since June. According to the usual script, this should be a signal to dump. But BTC climbed back from 76386 to 77652, still in the green over 24 hours.
On the other hand, more interestingly: after Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion, there was a net inflow of 2.3 billion within 24 hours. ETFs are withdrawing, but money is moving into exchanges. What’s withdrawing is allocation funds; what’s moving in are those ready to act.
Look at the details. The 1-hour trading volume shrank from 5972 coins to 1501 coins, price didn’t drop. The fee rate is still +0.01%, and the $2.58 billion open interest basically didn’t move.
My judgment: this wave is short covering, not new money entering. I won’t add positions before and after the election, let the volume speak.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The United States is currently in a policy negotiation window following the conclusion of the midterm elections, showing an overall pattern of decent macroeconomic data but a highly polarized society. The labor market remains resilient, but inflation stickiness remains high, with rents and energy costs continuously squeezing ordinary people's incomes. The public's real experience is much worse than the surface data, consumer confidence is weak, high interest rates suppress corporate expansion, the AI-driven market trend is increasingly volatile, and the market is highly sensitive to policy directions.
Politically, party polarization continues to deepen. If the Republican Party loses the House majority, subsequent administrative order implementation will face significantly increased resistance, and the ongoing tussle between the two parties will continue to constrain governance efficiency. On the foreign front, the approach of strong unilateralism and tariffs continues, while being persistently dragged down by multiple regional conflicts, with fiscal deficit pressure remaining high. For the financial markets, the election brings policy uncertainty combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, making short-term volatility prone to amplification, and the opportunity cost of risk-averse trades continues to rise. $BTC $ETH $SOL Even with Apple’s revenue exceeding expectations, AAPL bulls and bears are still battling
Apple’s FY2026 Q4 revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $114.5 billion, with iPhone revenue up about 17%, both surpassing expectations.
There’s plenty of good news, but also some bad news; the market can’t just decide direction based on revenue alone right now.
The positive is that the iPhone is still strong, and Apple’s growth continues. The negative is that next quarter’s gross margin guidance is only 45% to 46%, below expectations, with rising storage chip prices and AI service costs squeezing profits.
(Selling more doesn’t mean earning more; this calculation still needs to be clear.)
AAPL also had a detail this time: EPS reached $2.10, of which $0.05 came from tariff refunds. Revenue growth is real, but whether profits can keep pace depends on future performance.
* Revenue: $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year
* iPhone revenue: $57.6 billion, up about 17%
* EPS: $2.10
* Next quarter gross margin guidance: 45% to 46%
Today in the prediction event, I chose AAPL to close higher; I remain bullish on Apple. There are indeed many short-term negatives, but as long as iPhone demand and revenue growth continue, I don’t want to turn bearish easily. We’ll see how it turns out, but at least for now, I’m still on the bulls’ side. $AAPL #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $BTC has shown red candlesticks for 5 consecutive weeks!
If the price stays above 72k, the uptrend will continue from a longer time frame perspective!
This period is very similar to the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023.
Will history repeat itself?The midterms could create an interesting split between gold and Bitcoin.
Gold responds mainly to dollar weakness, real yields and fiscal uncertainty, while BTC has an additional variable: Washington's approach to crypto regulation.
A divided Congress could strengthen the case for both through political uncertainty and a friendlier regulatory outlook for crypto. But neither outcome guarantees a sustained rally.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $90 不是终点，更像一场情绪体检 SOL 跌到 93 附近，你真觉得大家是在等反弹吗？ 先戳破一个常见误判：很多人看到 30 天跌了 23.2%，就下意识觉得"跌够了、该反弹了"。但衍生品结构给出的信号没那么温柔。这轮从 122 滑到 90.87 的过程里，价格是阶梯式下移的，不是一次性插针，说明杠杆是在被慢慢挤，而不是被一根针清干净。这种节奏下，人群心理往往是犹豫多于恐慌，FOMO 反而还没真正出现，叙事疲劳倒是很明显。🫧 数据快照： - 现价约 93.38，30 天回撤 23.20% - 90 天维度仍为正，+26.12%，中期筹码没完全转空 - 前高 122.07 到低点 90.87，回撤幅度接近四分之一 - 上方均线参考区间 97 到 100，是反弹第一道情绪关口 - 90 附近是当前最直观的心理支撑 动能信号和风险信号得分开看。偏多的一面是：90 天仍为正，说明这更像中期上行里的深度回踩，而不是趋势彻底反转；一旦 90 守住，往 97 到 100 修复的路径是顺的，情绪也容易从犹豫切回试探性追价。偏空的一面是：阶梯下行意味着每一次小反弹都可能被用来减仓，衍生品端的杠杆若继The market is falling, and buyers keep lining up to catch it. That contradiction is the story. Over the past 24 hours, $BTC slipped 1.04% to 76,938 inside a 76,700–78,867 range, with open interest at 2.57 billion and a buy-sell ratio of 2.52. Read that ratio carefully: nearly two and a half buyers for every seller while price grinds lower. That is not accumulation. That is a queue forming in front of a moving train. The liquidation ledger makes the point brutally. In the last four hours, total l"Market Like Foggy Weather: Don't Rush to Step on the Gas (´･_･`)"
The current market is like a foggy day, with blurred vision ahead. Stepping on the gas recklessly now can easily lead to disaster.
$BTC: Do not chase before the resistance zone at 78,800–81,000. Without volume breakout, all are just bull traps testing the waters. On the right side, wait for volume to confirm. The floor is at 76,000; if broken, look to 75,000. Currently, the rate is above zero, stuck in the middle, neither up nor down. Acting now risks getting slapped (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$ETH: Keep a close eye on 2,200. The 2,100–2,400 range is a weekly demand zone; holding it offers hope to reach 2,600–2,700. Although the current rate is negative (-0.0097%), with bears paying, going long cannot rely on rate alone. Two hard conditions must be met: volume-supported bottom at 2,200 + BTC holding above 78K, both indispensable (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
The macro main theme remains unchanged: the market's bet on December rate hikes is still high. Bank of America and Fidelity both forecast 25bp hikes in December and March next year. The big picture hasn't loosened; don't mistake a rebound for a trend reversal (´･ω･`).
On the sentiment side, the fear index is 38; BTC funding rate hasn't turned negative; ETF funds haven't returned; whales are buying but prices aren't following. When bullish and bearish clues clash, holding cash and waiting is safer than forcing a direction.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 最诡异的不是黑客卷走了多少钱，而是他花钱的方式。发行方冻结资产的速度逼着他抢时间，于是链上出现了一种完全无视价格的买入——这种由强制买盘塑造的结构，比任何K线都更诚实。 $ETH 就这样被动成了接盘方。黑客链上买入以太坊的均价超过2600美元，比衍生品市场高出300多美元，等于给全网送上了一笔溢价。所以过去两天ETH能守住2300，靠的不是多头有多强，而是有个买家根本不看价格。我的判断很直接：2300站稳之前不加仓，站稳之后再谈前高。这个位置的支撑逻辑不是情绪，是被迫的现金流。 $UNI 则是滑点的直接来源。深度本就有限的市场，被一个大买家硬生生砸出几百美元的缺口。短线资金接下来会重新给DEX的深度定价——7美元上方放量下跌我不动，跌破前低才值得重新评估。这里的关键不是价格本身，而是市场开始意识到：流动性深度也是一种可以被事件瞬间抽干的资产。 $HYPE 在这场风波里反而证明了另一件事：衍生品价格才是真正的锚，深度经受住了考验。目前围绕84横盘，30天维度仍在浮亏区间，我保留基础仓位，跌到80以下再加。这个标的的叙事已经悄悄换了——从"新公链故事"变成"极端行情下的定价基准"。 真正值$ETH has spent its latest candles holding near 2,300 after a steady climb from the 2,240 area. The rising hourly averages remain bullishly aligned, but the 2,308.90 wick shows supply overhead.
I’m watching the narrow 2,293 to 2,294 support area. Defending it would keep the consolidation constructive. A sustained push through 2,300 could challenge the high again, while losing support would expose the 10-hour MA near 2,282.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PalantirQ3Growth96% Operation suggestions and trend analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum: 11/4
Bitcoin's 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a consolidation pattern before a breakout; the ratio of long to short positions in contracts is relatively high, and the weighted funding rate is close to 0.01. Historically, this combination tends to result in a higher probability of a pullback after a rebound faces resistance. Before breaking this range, the main strategy is to sell high and buy low. There is resistance around 78,700–79,700 where light short positions can be tried, with a stop loss if it rises above 80,000; if it pulls back and stabilizes around 77,500–76,000, consider buying low, and exit if it falls below 75,000. Contract trading carries extremely high risk and requires strict position control with stop losses. Analyst Sheng Ge's operation suggestions: short Bitcoin near 77,600–78,100, target 76,600–76,000; short Ethereum near 2,310–2,330, target 2,220–2,200
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 🚨 IS $72K THE NEXT STOP FOR BITCOIN?
I’ve been expecting BTC to drop toward $72K. When it rebounded above $79K, I saw a short opportunity despite the criticism.
Now the market is moving in that direction. 👀
The next big catalysts are US employment data, especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
📉 Weak data could put more pressure on BTC.
But nothing is guaranteed. Stay patient, manage risk, and wait for confirmation.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #CryptoTrading #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit Strategy just bought another 811 BTC.
Odaily and ChainCatcher report: From October 26 to November 1, the company increased its BTC holdings by 811 coins at an average price of about $80,846, spending approximately $65.5 million. Total holdings rose to 849,327 BTC, with an average accumulated cost of about $75,451. During the same period, ATM sold shares to raise about $164 million and repurchased about $208.2 million of STRC. At the time of writing, BTC is around $77,276.
My judgment is that buying volume is shrinking but hasn't stopped—849,327 is just one step away from 850,000 coins, and the treasury is still using ATM to shuffle cash.
Do you think it will reach 850,000 coins next week first, or continue to shrink volume and wait? I'll write when the treasury adjusts positions, so follow me.
$BTC At the critical level, funds have not returned
Bitcoin holds above $78,000, Ethereum rebounds to $2,300; on the surface, it's price recovery, but inside, funds hesitate.
$BTC's resilience is somewhat beyond expectations: hacker incidents, large ETF outflows, and cooling rate hike expectations have exerted continuous pressure, yet the drop is still less than 3%, and the gap support remains intact. However, this rebound seems more like short covering driving it, with dense long positions accumulated around 78,556–78,836, and no obvious new buying inflows. Holding the critical level does not mean buying has returned.
$ETH is similarly delicate. Regaining 2,300, but spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million. The 2,350–2,370 range is the resistance zone where multiple previous rebounds were blocked; standing above 2,300 only temporarily stabilizes the position.
Next, the U.S. midterm election voting day and Friday's nonfarm payroll data are approaching, with BTC options implied volatility rising to 43.5%. Therefore, 78,000 and 2,300 are not just price coordinates but psychological stop-loss lines for both bulls and bears: whoever breaks first, loses their chips first. When the direction is unclear, chasing gains or cutting losses is a test of patience.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 🚨 $ETH Danger Signal! The options market has started buying insurance against a crash, with $1900 becoming the target for bears!
Brothers, today is the U.S. midterm election voting day, but more worth watching than the election itself is the pessimistic signal being sent by the ETH derivatives market.
📉 1. Options Market: Bearish Sentiment Clearly Heating Up
In the past 24 hours, all of the top six ETH option contracts by volume are put options!
The most watched is the put option expiring on November 6 with a strike price of $1900.
Currently, ETH is priced around $2286, so $1900 represents about a 17% drop from the current price.
What does this mean?
At least judging by recent popular option trades, some funds are actively buying downside protection, showing a clear increase in short-term risk concerns.
📊 2. Implied Volatility: ETH Makes the Market More Nervous Than BTC
Recently, ETH options implied volatility has risen to about 59%, while BTC is around 51%.
The premium on near-month ETH put options is also significantly higher than on longer-dated ones.
This reflects the market pricing in increased short-term downside risk.
However, note that active put option trading does not mean all traders are short; it may also include institutions hedging their spot long positions.
📉 3. Futures Open Interest Declining in Sync
ETH contract open interest has dropped about 2.18% over a recent period, while the price only fell about 0.83% during the same time.
The larger decline in open interest indicates some leveraged funds are exiting$BTC Evening Market Tracking:
btc is getting a bit strong
The US-Iran situation continues to develop
Progress on nuclear issues and frozen funds
After the news came out, crude oil dropped again
Everyone is watching the strong support at 75000–76000 to break
But the current news seems not to allow it
It seems most of Trump's loss in both chambers has been priced in early
We'll know the answer in the next couple of days
The only difficulty now is that the right-side signal hasn't appeared yet
7.6 is a buying opportunity, keep holding to play the game, shorting is not recommended anymore
Because in this situation, if Trump really loses both chambers, there might be a final dip before a V-shaped rebound, and if Trump wins one chamber, it could directly go upUS stocks drag down
📉 Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory, is BTC dragged down by tech stocks?
🌐 Ted Pillows: On Monday, Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory; KuCoin: On November 3, Nasdaq down about -1.07%, S&P 500 about -0.51%; CoinDesk mentioned chip stock sell-off intensifies volatility.
🗳️ US midterm elections voting on November 3, crypto.news mentioned election uncertainty suppresses risk appetite.
📉 BTC fell from about $78,000 to below $77,000, weakening in sync with US stocks.
💡 BTC’s correlation with tech stocks these days is more like "moving together," but correlation does not equal causation.
I'm not sure if US stocks will continue to drag down, might be wrong.
📍 What I’m watching:
• US stock market close tonight
• November 6 nonfarm payroll report
Do you think BTC is now following US stocks more, or more influenced by ETF funds?
$BTC $ETH #CanBTCHold80K #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin's performance in the first few months after midterm elections is usually volatile or slightly bearish, but it rises over the following 12 months. He believes the long-term historical trend is favorable for Bitcoin, but short-term volatility still needs caution, especially with the risks from escalating geopolitical conflicts and AI trading continuing to weigh on risk assets #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Every bull market, someone says this time is different.
2014, 2018, and 2022 were all U.S. midterm election years.
$BTC fell about 56%, 73%, and 64% respectively throughout those years.
And in all three years, the fourth quarter closed down.
Now 2026 is coming again.
I don't believe history will necessarily repeat itself,
but do you think 2026 could become the fourth exception? DEX Three Brothers Takeover Review: Who's Really Eating the Cake, Who's Just Holding the Scene? 🍰
The cake of funds fleeing from CEX has fallen, but catching it doesn't mean you can eat it—relying solely on speculative players to hold the scene will eventually lead to losing both principal and interest.
$HYPE is catching the most aggressively but is somewhat bloated
Both its share and TVL are soaring, which looks like a real benefit. But the problem is the buyback scheme—quite a portion is stuck in custody accounts, not actually burned, so the circulating supply remains as large as before. It was hyped too fiercely recently, and the price is now being suppressed and rubbed down. Don't get carried away chasing highs just because the share is rising; it's easy to end up holding the bag.
$ASTER is the most hardworking but also the most strained
The product iteration and volume-grabbing strategy is sound. HIP-3 cut fees to capture new markets, carving out territory under Hyperliquid's shadow. But the claim window is open until 11/28, with potential selling pressure looming and TVL sharply falling from its peak. The combination of token structure and the claim window is a double squeeze, making it hard to keep up with the inflow.
$UNI is the most stable, quietly working
Robinhood Chain's main AMM, fully rolled out v2/v3/v4 plus UniswapX. The batch of US stock users from Binance spillover who want to enter compliantly directly fall into Uniswap pools. It’s onboarding traditional entry users onto-chain, the least likely to be unlocked and dumped. If it doesn’t reclaim $7, I still consider it unpriced.
Summary: HYPE has volume but is hollow, ASTER has strength but is gasping, UNI has foundation but is slow. Catching speculative players is a skill; catching real users is the valuable diamond 💎🚨 What Elon Musk really needs to worry about might not be the $TSLA stock price, but the storm of investigations after the Democrats take control of Congress!
Brothers, tonight's U.S. midterm elections are the real show!
The signals from the prediction markets are already quite clear: the probability of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate is about 76.5%. Note, this is the implied probability from prediction markets and does not mean the final result is confirmed. U.S. voting results will be revealed gradually.
But what I’m more concerned about this time isn’t who wins or loses, but the potential risks to several of Musk’s companies.
Why?
Because once the Democrats take Congress, Musk may face not only political mudslinging but also more tangible commercial scrutiny.
📌 First checkpoint: DOGE Government Efficiency Department old issues
Previously, Musk was involved in work related to the Government Efficiency Department, and Democratic lawmakers might launch investigations around government layoffs, decision-making processes, and conflicts of interest.
📌 Second checkpoint: SpaceX government contracts
The biggest focus for $SPCX isn’t the short-term stock price, but government contracts, NASA projects, and defense and aerospace launch orders.
Hearings can generate news, but what truly affects valuation are contract execution, budget appropriations, and whether future orders change.
📌 Third checkpoint: Tesla subsidies and policy environment
$TSLA can’t completely stay out of this either. 🚨 $BTC historical pattern again? After the US midterm elections, Bitcoin seems to always experience an important turning point!👀
Brothers, I reviewed the Bitcoin trends after the past three US midterm elections and found a very interesting phenomenon:
Every time after the midterm elections, BTC undergoes a market correction, then starts a new upward cycle, and the time waiting for the bottom keeps getting shorter!
📊 Historical data review:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days after the midterms, price around $170, then rose all the way to near $20,000, an increase of over 100 times.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200, then peaked near $64,000, about 20 times.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500, then peaked near $126,000, about 8 times.
🔥 What’s the most noteworthy pattern?
The time to bottom was:
71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
Each cycle is shortening!
Of course, this doesn’t mean 2026 will definitely repeat history, but this cyclical coincidence is definitely worth our close attention.
💡 Personal thoughts from Brother 800:
US midterm elections often come with changes in policy expectations, market sentiment, and macro uncertainty.
In the short term, volatility around the election may amplify, and the market might even see panic selling.
But from a longer-term perspective, what really deserves attentionUncertain market, don't rush to act (・ω・)ノ
$BTC is now like standing on thin ice: 76,800 is too close to 76,000, chasing shorts now has poor odds (￣▽￣;). CME still holds 29,220 BTC short positions, about $2.2 billion; if a rebound occurs, short squeezes could be fierce. Until it stabilizes above 78,700–79,000, right-side signals don't count.
$ETH is stuck around 2,250, better to hold for now. Below, 2,219 is the lower Bollinger Band, 2,159 is the 200-day moving average; above, 2,361 is capped by the 20-day moving average. Whales bought $63 million at an average price of 2,286, but October ETF net outflows hit a record $1.65 billion—buying on one side, running on the other, retail investors shouldn't rush to take sides (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The macro anchor hasn't loosened: December rate hike probability is about 85%, Logan says at least two more 25bp hikes, and September core PCE at 3.6% is still accelerating. Before election results and Friday's employment data, holding cash isn't cowardice, it's preserving position.
Funding rate has reached -0.0097%, shorts are paying, yet ETFs are still bleeding. Conflicting signals plus election day, the best move today: let the market take a couple of steps on its own (￣▽￣)ノ
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 😵💫 $SNDK Is SanDisk about to give the bulls a heart attack?
The earnings report is clearly strong, yet the stock price is not rising but falling, even continuously being sold off!
Is this a shakeout to lure more buyers, or has the market already started trading on bad news in advance?
Honestly, the biggest concern this time is not SanDisk's current performance, but that the market's expectations for its future growth are changing.
📊 Why does the stock price plummet despite such good results?
Because the capital market never just trades on how much was earned in the past, but on how much can be earned in the future!
Although SanDisk delivered a beautiful report this time, the operating profit guidance for the next quarter did not meet market expectations.
The market originally expected 2.35 trillion yen, but the actual guidance is only about 2 trillion yen.
What does this mean?
It’s not that the company suddenly stopped making money, but that the market expected it to continue ultra-high-speed growth, and the future growth expectations did not satisfy investors’ appetite.
More attention should be paid to NAND flash prices:
Last quarter, prices rose nearly 70%, but in the latest quarter, they have fallen back to just over 20%.
Although prices are still rising, the growth rate has clearly slowed, and the market is beginning to worry whether this super boom cycle for memory chips will gradually cool down.
🔥 My three personal judgments:
1️⃣ Good earnings do not equal good stock price; expectation gaps are the biggest short-term killer of stock prices.
2️⃣ If NAND price growth continues to narrow, even if company profits still grow, valuation can alsoEther yesterday surged to 2317, originally expecting to test 2350 resistance, pity rebound momentum insufficient, directly pulled back, current price back to 2243, trend much weaker than expected. Look at 4h chart, highs continuously moving down, failed to form strong bullish structure, short term bears dominate. Frankly, now buying power still not enough, can't eat up trapped chips above. Market sync view, BTC already broke below 77000, long liquidations over $100M. ETH side, Binance perps buyi