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US stocks drag down
📉 Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory, is BTC dragged down by tech stocks?
🌐 Ted Pillows: On Monday, Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory; KuCoin: On November 3, Nasdaq down about -1.07%, S&P 500 about -0.51%; CoinDesk mentioned chip stock sell-off intensifies volatility.
🗳️ US midterm elections voting on November 3, crypto.news mentioned election uncertainty suppresses risk appetite.
📉 BTC fell from about $78,000 to below $77,000, weakening in sync with US stocks.
💡 BTC’s correlation with tech stocks these days is more like "moving together," but correlation does not equal causation.
I'm not sure if US stocks will continue to drag down, might be wrong.
📍 What I’m watching:
• US stock market close tonight
• November 6 nonfarm payroll report
Do you think BTC is now following US stocks more, or more influenced by ETF funds?
$BTC $ETH #CanBTCHold80K #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin's performance in the first few months after midterm elections is usually volatile or slightly bearish, but it rises over the following 12 months. He believes the long-term historical trend is favorable for Bitcoin, but short-term volatility still needs caution, especially with the risks from escalating geopolitical conflicts and AI trading continuing to weigh on risk assets #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Every bull market, someone says this time is different.
2014, 2018, and 2022 were all U.S. midterm election years.
$BTC fell about 56%, 73%, and 64% respectively throughout those years.
And in all three years, the fourth quarter closed down.
Now 2026 is coming again.
I don't believe history will necessarily repeat itself,
but do you think 2026 could become the fourth exception? DEX Three Brothers Takeover Review: Who's Really Eating the Cake, Who's Just Holding the Scene? 🍰
The cake of funds fleeing from CEX has fallen, but catching it doesn't mean you can eat it—relying solely on speculative players to hold the scene will eventually lead to losing both principal and interest.
$HYPE is catching the most aggressively but is somewhat bloated
Both its share and TVL are soaring, which looks like a real benefit. But the problem is the buyback scheme—quite a portion is stuck in custody accounts, not actually burned, so the circulating supply remains as large as before. It was hyped too fiercely recently, and the price is now being suppressed and rubbed down. Don't get carried away chasing highs just because the share is rising; it's easy to end up holding the bag.
$ASTER is the most hardworking but also the most strained
The product iteration and volume-grabbing strategy is sound. HIP-3 cut fees to capture new markets, carving out territory under Hyperliquid's shadow. But the claim window is open until 11/28, with potential selling pressure looming and TVL sharply falling from its peak. The combination of token structure and the claim window is a double squeeze, making it hard to keep up with the inflow.
$UNI is the most stable, quietly working
Robinhood Chain's main AMM, fully rolled out v2/v3/v4 plus UniswapX. The batch of US stock users from Binance spillover who want to enter compliantly directly fall into Uniswap pools. It’s onboarding traditional entry users onto-chain, the least likely to be unlocked and dumped. If it doesn’t reclaim $7, I still consider it unpriced.
Summary: HYPE has volume but is hollow, ASTER has strength but is gasping, UNI has foundation but is slow. Catching speculative players is a skill; catching real users is the valuable diamond 💎🚨 What Elon Musk really needs to worry about might not be the $TSLA stock price, but the storm of investigations after the Democrats take control of Congress!
Brothers, tonight's U.S. midterm elections are the real show!
The signals from the prediction markets are already quite clear: the probability of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate is about 76.5%. Note, this is the implied probability from prediction markets and does not mean the final result is confirmed. U.S. voting results will be revealed gradually.
But what I’m more concerned about this time isn’t who wins or loses, but the potential risks to several of Musk’s companies.
Why?
Because once the Democrats take Congress, Musk may face not only political mudslinging but also more tangible commercial scrutiny.
📌 First checkpoint: DOGE Government Efficiency Department old issues
Previously, Musk was involved in work related to the Government Efficiency Department, and Democratic lawmakers might launch investigations around government layoffs, decision-making processes, and conflicts of interest.
📌 Second checkpoint: SpaceX government contracts
The biggest focus for $SPCX isn’t the short-term stock price, but government contracts, NASA projects, and defense and aerospace launch orders.
Hearings can generate news, but what truly affects valuation are contract execution, budget appropriations, and whether future orders change.
📌 Third checkpoint: Tesla subsidies and policy environment
$TSLA can’t completely stay out of this either. 🚨 $BTC historical pattern again? After the US midterm elections, Bitcoin seems to always experience an important turning point!👀
Brothers, I reviewed the Bitcoin trends after the past three US midterm elections and found a very interesting phenomenon:
Every time after the midterm elections, BTC undergoes a market correction, then starts a new upward cycle, and the time waiting for the bottom keeps getting shorter!
📊 Historical data review:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days after the midterms, price around $170, then rose all the way to near $20,000, an increase of over 100 times.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200, then peaked near $64,000, about 20 times.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500, then peaked near $126,000, about 8 times.
🔥 What’s the most noteworthy pattern?
The time to bottom was:
71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
Each cycle is shortening!
Of course, this doesn’t mean 2026 will definitely repeat history, but this cyclical coincidence is definitely worth our close attention.
💡 Personal thoughts from Brother 800:
US midterm elections often come with changes in policy expectations, market sentiment, and macro uncertainty.
In the short term, volatility around the election may amplify, and the market might even see panic selling.
But from a longer-term perspective, what really deserves attentionUncertain market, don't rush to act (・ω・)ノ
$BTC is now like standing on thin ice: 76,800 is too close to 76,000, chasing shorts now has poor odds (￣▽￣;). CME still holds 29,220 BTC short positions, about $2.2 billion; if a rebound occurs, short squeezes could be fierce. Until it stabilizes above 78,700–79,000, right-side signals don't count.
$ETH is stuck around 2,250, better to hold for now. Below, 2,219 is the lower Bollinger Band, 2,159 is the 200-day moving average; above, 2,361 is capped by the 20-day moving average. Whales bought $63 million at an average price of 2,286, but October ETF net outflows hit a record $1.65 billion—buying on one side, running on the other, retail investors shouldn't rush to take sides (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The macro anchor hasn't loosened: December rate hike probability is about 85%, Logan says at least two more 25bp hikes, and September core PCE at 3.6% is still accelerating. Before election results and Friday's employment data, holding cash isn't cowardice, it's preserving position.
Funding rate has reached -0.0097%, shorts are paying, yet ETFs are still bleeding. Conflicting signals plus election day, the best move today: let the market take a couple of steps on its own (￣▽￣)ノ
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 😵💫 $SNDK Is SanDisk about to give the bulls a heart attack?
The earnings report is clearly strong, yet the stock price is not rising but falling, even continuously being sold off!
Is this a shakeout to lure more buyers, or has the market already started trading on bad news in advance?
Honestly, the biggest concern this time is not SanDisk's current performance, but that the market's expectations for its future growth are changing.
📊 Why does the stock price plummet despite such good results?
Because the capital market never just trades on how much was earned in the past, but on how much can be earned in the future!
Although SanDisk delivered a beautiful report this time, the operating profit guidance for the next quarter did not meet market expectations.
The market originally expected 2.35 trillion yen, but the actual guidance is only about 2 trillion yen.
What does this mean?
It’s not that the company suddenly stopped making money, but that the market expected it to continue ultra-high-speed growth, and the future growth expectations did not satisfy investors’ appetite.
More attention should be paid to NAND flash prices:
Last quarter, prices rose nearly 70%, but in the latest quarter, they have fallen back to just over 20%.
Although prices are still rising, the growth rate has clearly slowed, and the market is beginning to worry whether this super boom cycle for memory chips will gradually cool down.
🔥 My three personal judgments:
1️⃣ Good earnings do not equal good stock price; expectation gaps are the biggest short-term killer of stock prices.
2️⃣ If NAND price growth continues to narrow, even if company profits still grow, valuation can alsoEther yesterday surged to 2317, originally expecting to test 2350 resistance, pity rebound momentum insufficient, directly pulled back, current price back to 2243, trend much weaker than expected. Look at 4h chart, highs continuously moving down, failed to form strong bullish structure, short term bears dominate. Frankly, now buying power still not enough, can't eat up trapped chips above. Market sync view, BTC already broke below 77000, long liquidations over $100M. ETH side, Binance perps buyiHistory offers an interesting lesson from the FTX collapse in November 2022. After FTX suspended withdrawals on November 8, the crypto market continued falling before reaching a major cycle bottom later that month. What followed? 📈 Bitcoin gained approximately 40% over the following six months. 📈 The total crypto market capitalization also recovered significantly. Could the current market follow a similar pattern? Nobody knows where the exact bottom is. But major market disruptions can sometimThe US midterm elections are about to begin, and the market's attention to $BTC's impact is increasing.
Currently, the Democrats have a higher probability of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate results remain uncertain. If the Democrats expand their influence, the advancement of crypto regulation and the CLARITY Act may face more resistance.
However, the election will not immediately change Trump's existing policies; in the short term, it will mostly affect market sentiment, while in the long term, it depends on regulatory policies and capital flows.
Back to the market, $BTC has fallen back to around 77,000, with a weak 4-hour trend. The key support to watch is 76,500. Once broken, market selling pressure may further increase.
Next, the focus is on the gap between the actual election results and market expectations; the expectation gap is the key to the market trend. Historical data shows that Bitcoin experienced significant corrections around previous US midterm elections: • 2014: -48% • 2018: -50% • 2022: -16% With the 2026 midterms approaching, political uncertainty could bring additional volatility to crypto markets. The election outcome may influence fiscal policy, regulatory direction, institutional sentiment, and overall risk appetite. A potential shift in control of Congress could create uncertainty, especially around crypto regulation. My view: HistBlackRock IBIT alone withdrew about $405.3m, Fidelity FBTC instead small inflow about $6.7m, rest most products almost no movement Friday plus Monday two days combined spit about $1.04B, spit back last week's that little inflow again Price action also not giving face $BTC current price around 77010, 24h high 78254, low 76386, funding rate about 0.01% Daytime multiple retests 76400 to 76500 zone, rebound to near 77500 then pressed back again IBIT single day withdrawal over 400m, institutional sid#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
1. Four main monitoring themes
1. COVID-19 vaccine mNEXSPIKE (currently the only cash cow)
- Highlights: US autumn vaccination progress, retail share, shipments; Q3 is the pre-season stocking window for respiratory diseases.
- Risks: Continued decline in public vaccination willingness, procurement orders below expectations.
2. New respiratory pipeline (determines long-term valuation)
- Approval pace of mRNA‑1010 (flu alone), mRNA‑1083 (flu + COVID combo vaccine);
- Commercialization progress of RSV vaccine; if these succeed, revenue dependence on COVID will be reduced.
3. Oncology pipeline (largest source of upside)
- mRNA‑4157 (melanoma cancer vaccine), the market bets this is the big future story; if the call provides positive clinical updates, it can easily boost valuation; if data is weak, expectations will be cut sharply.
4. Cost control + cash reserves
- Company goal: reduce operating expenses, move towards cash breakeven;
- Key focus: whether R&D and sales expenses continue to be cut; ending cash; cash is the company’s most important safety cushion.
2. Three scenario scripts
✅ Better than expected (bullish)
- Revenue ≥ 940 million, loss narrows to better than -1.00;
- mNEXSPIKE share strengthens; clear approval timeline given for flu/combo vaccine; #توقعات AMD Earnings Report: Progress in Marketing the HeliosAI System I expect AMD earnings reports to exceed expectations $AMD
Before the earnings report is released on Tuesday, the market sentiment remains cautious yet optimistic, due to strong demand for data center processors and accelerated deployment of AI accelerators. $xAMD Whether the momentum continues after the earnings report will largely depend on whether the AI revenue guidance for Q4 exceeds Wall Street expectations.
Strong performance recorded😎 over the past eight quarters, AMD has exceeded Wall Street consensus expectations in 5 quarters After the US midterm elections, I checked some historical data, and it's actually quite interesting.
In the past 19 midterm elections, the S&P 500:
On average rose 7.2% in 3 months, rising 17 times.
On average rose 14.6% in 6 months, rising all 19 times.
On average rose 18.2% in 12 months, rising all 19 times.
In other words, according to this historical data set, over the past 72 years, the S&P 500 has never fallen in the year following a midterm election.
Of course, whether this record will continue this year, no one can say for sure.
With the US stock market dropping like this now, I really hope this historical pattern holds true once again.
$SPY $QQQ $BTC $IRYS IRYS's chart is classic.
It has steadily declined from 0.5 to 0.02, and during the interim rallies, spot funds have been net outflowing daily. The main force is purely using the pump to cover up selling.
Not to mention 80% of the tokens are still locked at the bottom, and the FDV is directly set at five times the market cap.
Don't expect any rebound; after the altcoin peaks, the drop really has no bottom.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇#CircleQ3USDCGrowth
Circle (CRCL) faces a brutal margin squeeze. While USDC adoption looks robust, aggressive revenue-sharing costs with Coinbase and collapsing macro interest rates are cannibalizing core profitability. If Q3 numbers rely on artificial token accounting rather than organic transactional volume, this growth engine is unsustainable.
$CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
🚨 Circle earnings report tonight! USDC keeps growing bigger, but CRCL stock price faces a real test!
📅 Q3 2026 earnings: November 4, before US market opens
🪙 USDC circulation: about $74.58 billion in Q3
📈 Q2 USDC circulation: $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year
💰 Q2 total revenue and reserve income: $701 million, up 7% year-over-year
It looks like the stablecoin business is continuously expanding! But the real market concern is:
⚠️ USDC growth does not equal Circle’s profit growth!
Circle’s core business model is to earn interest income from USDC reserve assets.
This means three key variables:
1️⃣ USDC circulation: the larger the scale, the higher the potential reserve income
2️⃣ Federal Reserve interest rates: if rates fall, reserve yields may be pressured
3️⃣ Distribution costs: revenue sharing with trading platforms and partners may erode profits
Market expects adjusted Q3 EPS around $0.37–$0.40, revenue about $788 million–$797 million.
🔥 Tonight’s earnings focus is not whether USDC has grown, but:
* Whether the scale advantage of stablecoins can actually translate into profit growth?
* If USDC keeps expanding but interest rates keep falling, can CRCL maintain its high valuation? The probability of gold rising 📈 and strengthening is getting higher and higher! $ETH ETH current price is about 2,300, repeatedly oscillating near the bottom of the range. The lowest on October 30 was 2,179, rebounded 5% and returned to the 2,300 level — this is not a bottoming out, just a pause in the downtrend.
There are three resistance levels above: 200-day moving average at 2,313, 100-day moving average at 2,353, and the broken trendline at 2,385. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, RSI at 45, rebounds tend to be sold off once they hit the moving averages. Capital has not yet flowed back.
In October, spot ETH ETF net outflow was $1.45 billion, a monthly record, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for 90%; total net assets dropped from 17.46 billion to 14.27 billion over five weeks. This wave is following the Nasdaq, not its own money returning.
Overlooked risk point: Binance lost $6.3 billion to theft, hackers used EIP-7702 to convert stolen funds into ETH, which when liquidated represents potential selling pressure.
Three major events upcoming: 11/6 Nonfarm Payrolls, 11/10 CPI, 12/9 FOMC (78% chance of rate hike). The 2,276–2,300 range is the last line of defense; if broken, look at 2,200, then 2,122 liquidation zone. Only above 2,313 can it catch a breather, above 2,355 can it be considered a recovery.
Now is not a buying point: downside space 6%, upside 2%. Wait for data to land, wait for ETF to turn positive The market action tonight really wore me out watching it; the volatility isn't that big, just repeated surges and pullbacks. I wonder if it will stir up trouble again while I'm asleep tonight.
According to the 24-hour market liquidation data: total market liquidations reached $360 million, with long liquidations at $290 million and short liquidations at $78.811 million. A total of 91,000 people were liquidated across the network.
Bitcoin:
24-hour liquidations at $96.87 million, with long liquidations at $76.5 million and short liquidations at $20.369 million.
4-hour liquidations at $11.191 million, with long liquidations at $2.085 million and short liquidations at $9.106 million.
Ethereum:
24-hour liquidations at $54.787 million, with long liquidations at $32.206 million and short liquidations at $22.582 million.
4-hour liquidations at $16.06 million, with long liquidations at $3.928 million and short liquidations at $12.132 million.
The 24-hour long liquidation data for Bitcoin is quite large, mainly occurring during the daytime drop. Now with this rebound, I feel it's hard to say anything; it can't even break through the 78,000 level? Not sure if it can go up after waking up tomorrow. As for Ethereum, the 2,300 level is still a big resistance. Now it depends on whether the rebound can break through this level; otherwise, be cautious of surges followed by pullbacks. #Прогноз финансовой отчетности AMD: прогресс коммерциализации системы HeliosAI
What conclusion should be drawn from this? Long position logic at 74,700: You focused on the moving average correctly, but may have targeted the wrong opponent
The 120-day moving average is indeed around 74,300–74,426, and the 200-day moving average is at 73,195. The price remains well above these two long-term moving averages, and the broader uptrend formed earlier this year has not been broken. Treating 74,700 as a range rather than an exact point makes sense logically—there really isn’t a more convincing support reference below.
But there are two variables more worth clarifying than the "moving average itself."
First, elections don’t change the price direction; they change the rhythm of capital inflows and outflows. HTX Research’s judgment is straightforward: elections can change policy expectations but cannot directly reduce holding costs, nor will they automatically convert wait-and-see funds into BTC buying pressure. In the past three elections, BTC fell first then rose, but the sample size is only three, and the timing of each low ranged from 13 to 71 days. Overlaying "120-day moving average support" with "post-election must fall" does not yield a high-probability signal but rather a high-volatility window.
Second, you think shorting is a retail trap, and this intuition is supported by data, but the direction might be reversed. CME has about $2.2 billion in Bitcoin short positions. Once the price rebounds, a short squeeze will force shorts to cover, which in turn boosts the rally. Recently, the BTC short liquidations within 12 hours were five times that of longs in the same period. The danger of retail shorting is precisely because the shorts are already crowded, and crowded trades themselves are fuel.Is the rebound after ETH's sharp drop a reversal signal or a second chance for the bears?
ETH experienced a clear correction, falling from $2503 to $2267. It weakened again near $2318, hitting a low of $2236.06 before a technical rebound occurred. Currently, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 stand at 2265.85, 2261.11, and 2255.59 respectively, with short-term moving averages beginning to recover, but this is not enough to confirm the end of the downtrend.
Key resistance to watch above is in the $2280–$2303 range, while support to note below is at $2240 and the previous low of $2236. If the rebound fails to break through resistance effectively, a further decline should still be guarded against; if volume increases and it holds above $2303, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
True progress in trading is not about daring to add positions on floating profits, but knowing when to add, when to reduce, and when to admit mistakes. Only after experiencing liquidation does one understand that profits come from judgment and are protected by discipline. Before the trend is confirmed, do not increase positions due to floating profits, nor let one correct judgment become a reason to hold onto the next losing position. $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $CORE CORE really made me laugh with this market.
34,000 transactions in one day, but the total DEX volume on the entire chain is only $148, and the node tax is $1.17.
Tens of thousands of transactions are all just scripts stubbornly maintaining the illusion.
There isn't even a real buy order of tens of dollars on the market; the depth is completely dry.
This isn't a public chain; it's clearly a giant robot party.
Who dares to place a buy order here? You'll be trapped dead in the wilderness.
#CORE
$CORE
👇🚀 HYPE/USDT Daily Chart Update
* Current Price: $HYPE 86.401 ($86.4010 USDT)
* 24h Range: $82.612 – $87.940
* Trend: Consolidating above key moving averages following a sharp rally.
🎯 Short Prediction & Levels:
* Support: $HYPE 82.50
* Resistance: $90.00 / $97.00
Outlook: Price is holding steady above the MA10 ($84.20) and MA20 ($81.64) support zone. If buyers maintain control above $84.00, a push toward $90.00+ is likely. Keep an eye on breakout volume! ⚡️🔥 The US midterm elections end today
Suddenly realized, history proves a bullish 12-month performance for Bitcoin
2014: +24.5%
2018: +44.9%
2022: +92.3%
2026: An even bigger surge is coming.$xINTC rebounded from an old low of $59.62 before rallying from its pullback after a peak of $xINTC 104.47, and trades at $61.06 after a +0.82% daily gain.
Short-Term: Watch support near $xINTC 59.62 (24h low visible on chart). Holding this level can spark a retest toward the upper range.
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, $xINTC could target $xINTC 100.00+. If support fails, it may pull back to $59.62. After losing 38.2 million USD in $BTC, he opened another $9.35 million $BTC short position
On-chain analyst Yujin spotted a trade today: well-known rollover trader AguilaTrades just deposited 450,000 USDC margin into Hyperliquid and opened a Bitcoin short position worth about 9.35 million USD, with an opening price of 77,429 USD and a liquidation price (stop-out price) of 81,464 USD.
This address's story is not new: since June last year, through rolling positions (taking profits and continuously adding positions), it has cumulatively lost about 38.2 million USD. After losing 38.2 million, it is betting another 9.35 million, still bearish on the direction.
From the data, $BTC is short-term bearish and neutral on the overall market: 9.35 million USD is not enough to move the market, but the opening price is close to the current price of 77,553 USD, where the shorts are positioned. The platform token $HYPE is around 86 USD today, with a mild funding rate of +0.0050%, and leverage is stable. Anyway, following a historically 38.2 million USD losing address to open a position, judge the win rate yourself. On the downside: if it rises above 81,464 USD, this short position will be forcibly liquidated, turning into fuel for an upward move, invalidating the bearish judgment.
Next, watch the liquidation line at 81,464 USD. There's something I've never understood: money gets broken into tiny pieces and transferred hundreds of times, yet the final stop is still an exchange.
Salus uncovered exactly this. 3600 $SOL, related to assets stolen from Binance, were sliced into many fragments by scripts and shuffled around on the chain, until at 16:51 on November 3rd, they were neatly gathered into HitBTC's hot wallet. All that fuss, just to queue up somewhere else.
What's even more absurd is that this isn't the first time it's been the endpoint. As of July, $22 million marked as illicit funds also went through their platform. Anyway, no freezing announcements have been seen, nor any responses.⚠️ The US midterm elections are approaching, and BTC's historical cycle patterns deserve close attention!
Looking back at Bitcoin's performance after the last three US midterm elections, there seems to be an intriguing signal hidden within.
📍 2014: Bottomed about 71 days after the election, BTC's lowest was around $170, then surged to $20,000, an increase of over 100 times.
📍 2018: Bottomed about 39 days after the election, price dropped to around $3,200, then rose to a peak of $64,000, about 20 times increase.
📍 2022: Bottomed about 13 days after the election, BTC's lowest was around $15,500, then started a new rally, reaching a high of $126,000, about 8 times increase.
🔥 The most noteworthy pattern is:
The bottoming times for the three cycles were 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively, showing a gradually shortening trend.
From 100x, 20x to 8x, although the historical gains have narrowed cycle by cycle, after each deep correction, the market has welcomed a new upward cycle.
Of course, historical patterns do not guarantee future repetition.
But when market sentiment hits rock bottom, panic and opportunity often coexist.
👀 In 2026, after the US midterm elections, will BTC once again play out this familiar cycle?
Do you think this will be the start of a new bull market, or the failure of historical patterns?
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #USMidtermElections #BullBearCycle It rises as soon as it says it will. The election votes haven't been counted yet, but $BTC and $ETH have already pulled up.
Many people say it's the election market.
I think it has nothing to do with the election.
For me, the pull-up is just waiting for the short positions.
At the same time, these things happened:
Iran said the Supreme Leader authorized the government to negotiate; if conditions are agreed upon, the Strait of Hormuz can reopen within two days.
Oil prices dropped 7% on Monday.
US tech stocks also rebounded at the open.
But one thing is strange.
US job openings data was hotter than expected: 7.52 million vs. 7.10 million expected.
Hot data should theoretically be unfriendly to rate hike bets, yet the coin prices still pulled up.
BTC spot ETF has still seen outflows of over 700 million in five trading days.
Money is still moving, prices pull first, I don't chase.
Voting starts at 8 AM tomorrow.
Before the results come out, I think this wave is just sentiment.
By the way, looking at other hot ones:
$PLTR revenue grew 96% year-over-year, but the stock price was still cut at the open.
AMD will announce earnings tomorrow morning; the previous two beats saw price drops, this time focusing on data centers.
CRCL (Circle) helped freeze USDC last week; this week it's their turn to report earnings.
Just my personal opinion.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #BTC continues to face pressure, with capital and market trends diverging 3600 SOL circulated on-chain for three days and finally ended up in a hot wallet of an exchange.
The path revealed by Salus is: this batch of $SOL related to the Binance stolen assets did not move in a straight line but was fragmented into dozens of pieces and routed through multiple paths by scripts issuing commands from the same source. Each previous hop was confirmed, and the next hop was broadcast immediately, creating a dense transfer network within minutes. This is called a peeling chain—using a large number of small, multi-hop transfers to peel off the funds layer by layer from the original source. On November 3 at 16:51, about 3600 SOL were transferred into the HitBTC hot wallet.
The difficulty in tracking is not in the ledger but in the cost. All transactions are public and theoretically auditable; however, what originally required monitoring a single thick line now requires handling far more nodes in the graph, reconstructing the sequence, and determining which branches will converge. The manpower and computing power needed multiply exponentially, and only a limited number of institutions can track to the end. What money launderers buy is not invisibility but "no one willing to pay this cost."
The problem is not just this single transaction. Salus states that as of July, about 22 million USD defined by them as illegal sources have flowed into HitBTC, and the same exchange appears in the paths of multiple theft cases. A single incident is an accident; repetition is a pattern—the questioned issue is not just the transfers but whether KYC, blacklist, and deposit reviews were properly implemented.
Boundaries must be maintained: the conclusion comes from a single third-party institution, and neither of the two exchanges has confirmed or denied it.$BTC The early stage of Bitcoin's bull market may be much longer than most people expect. I believe this statement is correct.
Reference history:
2019: Death cross to golden cross took 10 months and 24 days
2023: Death cross to golden cross took 12 months
Current: This round of death cross has only lasted 3 months and 18 days
Even if we have already left the bear market and entered the early bull phase, do not expect the main upward wave to arrive immediately. The early bull market is a long phase of chip turnover and cost restructuring. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
$ZEC I am temporarily on the sidelines. The 4-hour structure is weak, and the short-term rebound cannot yet be considered a major cycle reversal.
On the 15-minute chart, resistance is at 1214.4–1218.7, and support is at 1182.3–1185.2. The hourly EMA20 is at 1178.5; the closing price relative to it determines short-term strength or weakness.
Whether a breakout is accompanied by volume and whether subsequent pullbacks hold are more valuable for judgment than the rise or fall of a single candlestick.
Market analysis, for reference only🚨 Silver: Short-term looks like a correction, long-term still bullish!
$XAGUSD Silver may have another dip ahead, with key support in the $46.3–$43.6 range, and in extreme cases, a drop below $40 cannot be ruled out.
But I remain optimistic about silver's long-term trend! 🔥
📈 Short-term target: Watch if $55 can hold firmly.
📈 Medium-term target: If the market gradually recovers, there is a chance to challenge $67–$73.
📈 Long-term outlook: If supply-demand imbalance and capital resonance occur over the next three years, an unexpected surge is possible, but $613 is an extremely optimistic forecast and should not be taken as a guaranteed target.
⚠️ Key risk control level: $38.8!
If the daily chart breaks below $38.8 effectively, be cautious of the extreme risk of further decline to $22.
My view is simple: bullish on silver's long-term potential, but not rushing to heavily buy the dip. Wait for support confirmation and trend strengthening before considering gradually increasing positions.
Is this silver correction a golden opportunity or the start of a bigger drop? 👀
#Silver #XAGUSD #Gold #PreciousMetals #MarketAnalysis $XAG Is the opportunity for BTC to hit $85,000 here? The real variable isn't the election, but how the market prices it!
The US midterm elections are entering the result announcement phase, but control of Congress is not yet finalized. Reuters' pre-election polls show the Democrats are more favored to take the House, while the Senate remains highly uncertain. What the market truly cares about is how crypto regulation and fiscal policy will change over the next two years.
For BTC, $85,000 can serve as an optimistic scenario target, but one cannot simply equate changes in congressional seats with a bullish signal. Previously, BTC experienced ETF outflows, leveraged liquidations, and a tech stock downturn simultaneously, indicating that favorable policies do not necessarily translate immediately into spot buying.
My judgment is: the election provides a catalyst, but capital determines how far the market can go. The focus going forward is on spot ETF net flows, the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can effectively reclaim key resistance. If there is only news-driven stimulus without incremental capital, the risk of a spike followed by a pullback cannot be ignored. Rather than betting on $85,000 prematurely, it's better to wait for market confirmation. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Q3 is highly likely to continue the pattern of "revenue growth without profit growth": The increase in USDC circulation (with a long-term guidance maintaining a 40% compound growth rate) and the expansion of the Payments Network and Arc ecosystem represent genuine bullish logic. However, under the triple pressure of reserve yields dropping to 3.5% and still declining, Coinbase taking the majority of the interest, and high equity incentive expenses, the efficiency of converting stablecoin scale growth into shareholder returns remains the biggest question mark in this earnings report.
① Whether the quarterly average USDC circulation growth rate is ≥20%; ② Whether the reserve return rate falls below 3.4%; ③ Whether regular other income accelerates quarter-over-quarter; ④ Whether the RLDC profit margin guidance still rises after excluding Arc presales. If three out of these four improve, the narrative of "growth realizing returns" can be established; otherwise, the 51x forward P/E ratio will lack support.The stove flame licks the edge of the pot, the toasty aroma of government bonds mixed with the pungent sting of chili peppers—the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surges to 55.5, surpassing the expected 54.7, while the price index stubbornly clings to 75.2. The surface of this pot of soup is boiling beautifully, but the bottom has already formed a layer of interest rate caramelized crust.
I've been the chef for twenty years, and this is the heat level I fear most: the fire isn't off, the water isn't boiling, but the seasoning is already burning. Interest rates hold steady between 3.75% and 4%, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year-over-year is 3.1%, yet the market prices in a 70% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December—this isn't seasoning, it's torching chili peppers with a blowtorch. The October jobs report is like the last pinch of salt, dropped into the pot at 1:30 PM on November 6th, with nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 60,000 and unemployment steady at 4.2%. Too little salt makes the soup bland, too much makes it choke the throat; government bonds, the dollar, and risk assets all watch closely how this spoon is shaken.
In this investment menu, mainstream coins are the main course, altcoins are the seasoning, and leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili peppers. The main course isn't cooked yet, but the seasoning is already overpowering, and the chili peppers have turned the palm red. If employment data pushes rate hike expectations higher, government bond yields will be like hot oil, the dollar like ice water, and risk assets will fry the moment they hit the pot. That tokenized US stock proxy is more like a pre-made dish: quick to serve, with heat conduction that leaves no room for error. When government bond yields rise, its valuation sauce immediately thickens; when the dollar tightens, market liquidity feels like a freezer door slammed shut, with order books so thin you can count them.
The manufacturing price index at 75.2 isn't just garnish; it's a whole handful of dried chili peppers. It tells the chef: cost pressures are still burning on the stove eye, and this fire of interest rates can't be turned down lightly. The market pricing a 70% chance of a December hike is like sprinkling chili powder into the soup early; if the jobs report is even a bit hot, the entire flavor profile—from government bonds to the dollar to risk assets—will flip. Is 60,000 nonfarm payrolls light salt or heavy seasoning? Is 4.2% unemployment steady or a false boil? It depends on the heat. The tokenized asset's correlation is like cast iron heat conduction—heats fast and cools fast; mainstream assets can still rely on their base, altcoin seasoning burns first, and too many leveraged chili peppers send the gut into alarm.
The heat of this pot of soup isn't under the lid, but in the salt on November 6th—is it to enhance flavor, or to marinate government bonds, the dollar, and risk assets through the pot's bottom together? #usjobsreportinfocus When the 13.47% steep drop curve slammed onto the monitor, the needle holder in my hand almost slipped—before this "surgery" began, the patient was still sprinting up the stairs in the corridor at about 460% of the pace since the beginning of the year.
The preoperative report handed over by SanDisk was a set of contradictory hemodynamic data: Q1 revenue surged 378% year-over-year, Q2 guidance beat expectations, and it even came with a vasodilation plan of splitting one vessel into eight branches. But the market’s ECG showed a big negative line, with Micron and Western Digital’s blood pressure dropping sharply in sync, and the three main coronary arteries in the storage sector all spasming together.
Anyone in my field knows: the most dangerous situation is often not a fully blocked vessel, but reperfusion injury. Complete occlusion has a clear treatment path—angiography localization, guidewire passage, balloon dilation, stent implantation. What really chills the spine are cases where angiography shows blood flow restored, but the patient is sweating cold on the table—reperfusion is too intense, the myocardium is overwhelmed, and this collapse is harder to manage than the original infarction.
The storage sector right now is exactly this kind of angiographic report. A roughly 460% increase since the start of the year has stretched the vessel walls to their limits under ultra-high pressure, and the elastic fibers are already fatigued. Splitting one vessel into eight branches just divides one vessel into eight smaller branches, each looking thinner, but the total perfusion volume remains unchanged. The 13.47% single-day drop is not due to thrombosis but a stress-induced spasm caused by long-term high pressure on the vessel walls. Micron and Western Digital are under pressure simultaneously, indicating that the three main arteries supplying the same organ are all contracting—this is not a local stenosis but a systemic vascular bed reaction.
The real core contradiction lies here: is the 378% year-over-year growth truly due to strong myocardial contractility, or is it compensatory hyperactivity induced by inotropic drugs? The Q2 guidance beating expectations is like a patient being able to take two steps on the second day after surgery, which clinically seems encouraging. But surgical history repeatedly proves that early compensation often masks long-term structural failure. Growth expectations have already been embedded in the elastic fibers of every vessel, and what needs to be verified next quarter is whether the blood flow can sustain this currently paper-thin but maximally stretched vascular bed.
The $XCH US stock token at this moment is more like an intraoperative frozen section—claimed to be real-time alignment, but to transmit the entire storage sector’s electrophysiological signals at millisecond speed, whether its bundle branch conduction speed is fast and accurate enough is the key metric to watch.
The ECG monitoring never stopped for a second, but some lesions are not hidden in the ECG. #sandiskearningsselloff$BTC $BTC short-term $BTC highest 77,753, $ETH highest 2,308, $ZEC highest 1,215: Is the rally a breakout or the last exchange of long positions?
I still view this triangle tug-of-war from a slightly bearish perspective tonight. BTC is currently around 77,670, up only 0.19% since UTC midnight today, but the price is already close to the 24-hour high of 77,753; the proportion of long accounts in the entire market is 71.94%, and the top traders hold 63.20% long positions by holdings, with a funding rate of +0.01%. The high level can still push further, but when long positions are so concentrated and the holdings have actually fallen 0.42% in the past hour, I am more concerned whether the support above is starting to thin out.
ETH is around 2,305, just one step away from the intraday high of 2,310, with the 1-hour RSI showing overbought; the proportion of long accounts is 73.70%, while the recent funding rate remains at -0.0031%. This combination of "price rising, crowded longs, and funding rate not synchronously strengthening" easily gives both bulls and bears arguments and most easily amplifies short-term divergences. If the selling pressure above continues to release, whether the market will turn back to seek liquidity near 2,234 is worth watching.
ZEC is around 1,215, having touched 1,220 intraday, with the 1-hour moving average showing a bearish alignment. Its long-short account ratio is nearly balanced, but top traders hold 56.67% long positions by holdings, and long positions still accumulate under negative funding rates, making the chip game sharper.The chessboard hasn't been properly set, yet the opponent is already counting your remaining time—Circle's Q3 report is not just a financial statement, but a forced checkmate move. Played before the U.S. stock market opens on November 4th, the market isn't focused on a lone pawn's advance, but whether the entire pawn structure can hold the center: USDC circulation expansion is just the opening move, reserve income is the piece strength, distribution costs are the time tax paid with every step forward, and profit quality is the key to converting spatial advantage into a killing threat.
A grandmaster assesses the position and never treats "growth" as a mere tactical combination. The rise in USDC circulation is the central pawn's advance; stablecoin payment expansion is the rooks on the wings; reserve income growth is the rear rook holding the open file. But the real killer is distribution costs—they act like a pin: it looks like you've moved a step further, but your pieces are actually pinned, and activity is exchanged for on-paper scale. If cost growth outpaces circulation, profit conversion rate will be eroded, leaving a seemingly solid but actually dead-end endgame with no promotion path. Circle's report's decisive move isn't how much USDC increased, but how much "net initiative" remains behind each dollar of circulation after deducting reserve income minus channel commissions.
Looking at the U.S. stock token XSKHY's linkage, this is a classic tactical diagonal. On the surface, it's a linked piece in the same game, but in reality, it might be a deliberate flaw sold by the opponent: once USDC growth expectations are priced in early by the market, the token will make a "passing pawn" style preemptive strike; but if reserve income is suppressed by interest rate trends and distribution costs rise, the linkage will shift from coordinated attack to mutual restraint. The most dangerous mistake is not misreading direction, but misjudging the opponent's tactical combination as a strategic advantage. What really needs calculation is the position twenty moves ahead: can payment expansion bring real settlement demand, is reserve income overly dependent on a high interest rate environment, do distribution costs have economies of scale, and can profitability evolve from "favorable variations" into a "forced winning position".
XSKHY's intraday linkage resembles a hidden line after castling: the king's wing looks safe, but the center still has open files. If USDC circulation growth doesn't simultaneously improve the unit economics model, the token's pulse is a sacrifice attack—loud in momentum, but if follow-up pieces can't keep up, it will be counter-pinned. The market likes to portray stablecoin growth as a linear promotion, but in chess, every promotion must first clear the pawns blocking the path. Circle's Q3 report is a position evaluation: reserve income is material advantage, distribution cost is structural weakness, payment expansion is space, and profit quality is the king's safety. Without unifying these four, growth is just repetitive moves, not a winning plan.
My professional judgment is simple: the key variation in this game is not USDC circulation itself, but the exchange ratio between distribution costs and reserve income. If the exchange ratio worsens, XSKHY's linked surge is a baited sacrifice, losing initiative if taken; if the exchange ratio improves, the token will upgrade from tactical harassment to strategic pressure. Before checkmate, first see if the king has an escape route. #circleq3usdcgrowth#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
This is a typical post-market pullback caused by "excellent performance but forward-looking indicators (orders) not accelerating in sync + valuation already reflecting perfect expectations." The fundamentals remain strong (commercial milestones, guidance upgrades, high profit margins), but in the short term, the stock price is more driven by order growth and valuation. Going forward, it is necessary to observe whether TCV/new orders rebound in the coming quarters and whether commercial customer expansion can continue.
The market has extremely high demands for these high-growth AI software stocks; sometimes "beat + raise" is still not enough, especially when bookings show a clear slowdown. Data sources include company financial reports, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, TipRanks, and other reports.The structural settlement observation report from Friday afternoon lies spread out on the table: The Nasdaq sank 2.86%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s main support column literally broke, with a 7.2% vertical displacement enough to make any curtain wall system emit tearing sounds. This is not an ordinary pullback; it’s as if the entire building is simultaneously unloading live loads. Spot gold slid 3.5% to around $3882, silver fell below $50 with a drop exceeding 6%, and Bitcoin simply broke through $77,000 — three counterweights that should have dampened each other resonated and fell together at the same moment.
When I worked on supertall projects, the condition I feared most was when the mass distribution of all floors seemed independent but was actually anchored to the same core tube. Today’s cross-asset deleveraging is exactly this kind of resonance. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.93%, bond prices rose, indicating that funds haven’t disappeared but have been absorbed like dampers into the shear walls at the bottom. The problem is, when the traditional ballast stone gold and the rooftop observation deck Bitcoin both become unstable simultaneously, what does that mean? It means the design load assumptions of the entire structure are flawed — inflation expectations and interest rate hike paths have caused stress redistribution, and institutional margin pressures are cutting the connecting nodes one by one.
Regarding the linkage between tokenized US stocks and the crypto market, I prefer to view it as the relationship between prefabricated components and cast-in-place structures. Tokenized stocks are prefabricated components: quick to install and high turnover, but their connection nodes to the main cast-in-place system depend on post-cast joints — that is, liquidity. Today, the post-cast joints haven’t reached strength; when lateral wind loads come, the prefabricated panels respond first. Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset; it’s more like a tuned mass damper on the roof, usually absorbing sway, but under extreme conditions its own amplitude is amplified. Gold should be the underground diaphragm wall, but the actual cast thickness is insufficient to resist this round of compressive forces.
What’s truly worth watching is not how much fell today, but whether the construction joint positions have shifted. Semiconductors are the rebar in the load-bearing columns, the Nasdaq is the building’s verticality, and Bitcoin is the external structure at the top. If the sell-off continues to spread, the first to fail won’t be the decorative components at the top, but the basement’s anti-uplift anchors — that is, the liquidity depth of the US Treasury market. The white paper is just a blueprint; today’s market is a real load test, telling you the true quality of construction. Projects built on narratives showed honeycomb and rough surfaces on the first day of stress redistribution.
The issue has never been whether gold and Bitcoin can re-attract safe-haven demand, but whether their anchoring length is sufficient. Without enough anchoring, no matter how beautiful the facade, it can’t withstand normal lateral displacement. This afternoon I focused on the beam that first showed a plastic hinge — it’s not in gold’s candlestick chart, nor in Bitcoin’s depth chart, but in the cross-asset margin liquidation line. The building hasn’t collapsed, but the settlement observation points have already been set; the next round of readings will tell you who cut corners. #stocksgoldsilverselloffLooking back at the past three midterm elections, $BTC has hit a phase bottom after each election: 📉 2014: Bottomed about 71 days later at around $170, then surged over 100 times! 📉 2018: Bottomed about 39 days later at $3,200, then later peaked above $64,000! 📉 2022: Bottomed in just 13 days at $15,500, then once surged up to $126,000! Interestingly, the time for BTC to bottom is getting shorter, suggesting the market might be forming some cyclical pattern. 📰 Latest news: The 2026 US midter如果杠杆多头还在加码，而稳定币供给没跟上，这波BTC拉升到底是谁在买单？💫 这两天看盘有个微妙的感觉：价格在往上试探，但"钱"本身没变多。USDT计价的保证金借款处在高位，稳定币总供给一周几乎没动。换句话说，推动这波买盘的更多是借来的筹码，而不是新流入的现金。这种结构下，涨势会显得轻飘飘的，也更容易被一根针戳破。 我盯着几个位置。上方78800像一道分水岭，一旦站稳，空头逻辑基本作废，情绪会从犹豫切到追涨，FOMO会自己给自己加燃料。下方76400如果失守，我会先看76000附近，那里堆着约4.3亿美元的买盘，像一块缓冲垫，但缓冲垫也可能变成被扫的靶子。 偏多的一面：杠杆资金愿意承担成本，说明短线风险偏好还在，只要价格不破关键位，借来的钱也能把行情顶一段，山寨的情绪也会跟着回暖一点。偏空的一面：燃料是借的，不是新钱，一旦价格停滞或回撤，强平会放大波动，叙事疲劳期里人群更容易从追高瞬间切到观望。 资金偏好这个镜头下，我看到的不是全面进攻，而是选择性下注——钱更愿意去有短期催化的地方，而不是无差别铺开。这种偏好支撑不了太久，除非稳定币供给重新扩张。 我的判断：关键位之上可以偏多，但要盯紧$BTC DWF Labs' research reviewed the past three midterm elections: after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 votes, BTC rose approximately 25%, 45%, and 92% respectively, averaging 53.7%. But the key details lie in the path — after each of the three elections, BTC experienced a temporary low point within weeks after the voting day: 71 days in 2014, 39 days in 2018, and 13 days in 2022, before recovering.
The peculiarity of 2026 is that the starting point is completely different. In the past three midterm elections, BTC was roughly 67% to 73% below the cycle peak, deep in a bear market; this time, the price is only about 36% below the peak, having already dropped about 53% to $58,524 in June. A shallow retracement means the "historical average 53% post-election 12-month increase" cannot be directly extrapolated — if June was already the bottom, the path is closer to 2022; if the bottom is still ahead, it will resemble the long bottoming process of 2014 or 2018.
$ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？