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This market is really frustrating. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $525M, including $443M in long positions. This morning, $BTC officially broke below 80,000. What worries Ajian is that this figure was the only psychological integer support price in this round of decline. Once broken, the only technical support below is the long liquidation level at $76,764 and the 200-day moving average at $72,945. The area between these two levels is the last technical buffer zone for this downturn. Moreover, with the current inflow ratio between retail investors and whales being too high, it is not recommended to add positions or short now, because retail investors lack the capacity to average down, and blindly entering the market can easily turn them into marginal buyers, defeated by a lower cost basis. Otherwise, why do you think I said yesterday not to blindly follow Arthur Hayes' big bearish positions? This kind of behavior—selling off and immediately calling for a short—is meant to create liquidity narratives, using bearish sentiment to allow his remaining positions (if any) to be covered at lower levels. This is how industry rules work, just so you know. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Buying Bitcoin is for hedging risk.
Buying gold is also for hedging risk.
But in 2026, both ended up at the bottom, surprising?
Among 21 asset classes:
BTC -7.3%, gold -7.5%.
This is the first time since 2011 that they both tied at the bottom.
What about others?
Commodity basket +52.5%.
Even the most boring short-term government bonds gained +2.9%.
The most boring all won.
Why were Bitcoin and gold dumped?
Because they don’t pay interest.
Oil prices touched $116, inflation is rising.
The market bets on a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike.
When interest rates rise, those that don’t pay interest are definitely sold first.
Gold was still at 5400 at the start of the year, dropped to 3995 on Friday.
The momentum of last year’s 63.7% gain is gone.
BTC fell 35% from the peak of 126,000, losing for the second consecutive year.
But we have to look long term:
Since 2011, BTC’s average annual return is +120.6%, the highest on the chart.
My attitude:
Bottoming out is not scary, what’s scary is the reason.
This round, it’s interest rates killing it, not the story collapsing.
The Fed will speak first on Wednesday, and there are two months left this year to change rankings.
Don’t sell when it hurts the most.
If long term, it’s not the time to sell BTC,
and likewise, not the time to buy BTC either.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The main driver of Q3 profit growth is not HBM4; HBM4's contribution to Q3 profits is limitedThe chain was hacked and halted, yet INIT actually touched a near one-year high of 0.1680. I’m not chasing this rise.
Here’s what happened: On 10/23 (UTC), the attacker exploited the Initia MoveVM vulnerability to create accounting entries out of thin air and transferred about 2.7 million USD, causing L1 and rollup to halt immediately.
$INIT initially probed 0.1134 that day, closed at 0.1503, with volume about 5.8 times the 50-day average; on 10/25 it peaked at 0.1680, roughly 29% higher than before the incident.
The official statement says native INIT was not inflated; however, Bitquery statistics show that the USDC reserves backing the chain once dropped to only 63 USD.
The official update on 10/24 did not provide a restart time nor mention who would cover the losses.
My view: The market only priced in the "INIT was not inflated" part, but did not price in "the chain has not restarted, and there is no compensation plan."
From the low of 0.0474 on 7/29, it has already risen 3.5 times, which seems more driven by sentiment.
What I’m doing: Observing without chasing, not catching a falling knife.
If the official announcement confirms restart plus compensation, and the daily chart holds above 0.1680, my judgment fails; if it falls below 0.1301 (the low on 10/24), then watch 0.1134, the incident low.
Honestly: The chain stopped but the coin rose—is this smart money bottom-fishing the incident, or someone pumping amid panic to dump?
$INIT $APT $SUI
#Railway安全事件波及多链资产安全 The stablecoin airdrop from standx has already been distributed. Looking at the airdrop amounts from several influencers, it’s not even enough for a meal of pork knuckles. If you only manage your finances within standx, that’s still okay—you can make a little bit of money.
But if you actually traded on standx, doing contracts and losing on fees, slippage, and funding rates, the current amount of stablecoins from the airdrop can’t cover your losses. It’s like trying to scalp profits but ending up getting scalped yourself.
I remember after last year’s airdrop from aster, there was a continuous surge, creating a strong wealth effect. At that time, I was traveling out of town. Following that was the wave of perpdex, with all kinds of contract DEXs flooding the market. The founder of standx was the head of contracts at a major exchange, highly praised by the market.
Back then, I had already formed this understanding: avoid crowded places, whether for scalping or buying coins, only play the leaders. Clearly, the leader of perpdex was hyperliquid, while standx was overcrowded with all kinds of hype on X, so I didn’t bother to scalp there.
Looking at it now, my judgment was correct. You still have to stick to avoiding crowded places, and avoid congested trading or scalping. Even during the L2 scalping bonus period from 2023 to 2024, fewer people scalped strk, and the final single account earned over $1,000. But many more scalped zk, with single accounts earning less than $500 and many even getting scalped themselves. This also illustrates the principle.Bitcoin has been consolidating around 80,000, with volume shrinking to half the usual level, and no one dares to make a move across the board. I've seen this kind of market many times — it's not bulls and bears fighting, but everyone waiting for something to fall into someone else's hands.
This Thursday, the US Q3 GDP and September PCE will be released together. Those who want to watch don’t need to focus on the candlesticks tonight, but on the first volume spike after the data. If the data is good, the rate cut expectations will be pushed further back, so don’t rush around the 80,000 level; if the data is bad, there might be a chance. Few who bet on the data ever get good results. From what I've seen over the years, the more people try to predict direction in advance, the more they get hit from both sides. $BTC The focus for the next week is still on the Nasdaq's movement. Whether the Nasdaq can stop falling here; if it effectively breaks below 258000, it means Bitcoin at 80,000 will also be lost. The next defense lines are 78,000 and 75,000. When will the Nasdaq stop falling, and when will Bitcoin bottom out?
I hope it will drop to give us a chance to pick up cheap chips and lower the average cost of building positions. So next, I will continue to buy in batches at these two levels, striving to accumulate enough chips to be fully invested!In the futures market, round number levels often act like a threshold; crossing them intraday doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed. I have an old habit when reading such news: first, I look at the day's price change and open interest, then I consider how significant this "breakthrough" really is.
According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public data, $BTC just broke above $80,000, currently at $80,192, but it is still down 0.82% over 24 hours; during the same period, the trading volume was about $1.467 billion, open interest about $3.396 billion, and the funding rate is 0.0011% per hour, roughly 9% annualized.
My judgment is that this news boosts short-term sentiment but is not enough to indicate a strengthening trend. Breaking a round number and still being down for the whole day are not contradictory; different observation windows can lead to different directional interpretations, and just looking at the headline can miss this nuance.
The difference between crypto perpetuals and traditional commodity futures also lies in this ongoing funding cost. A positive funding rate means longs bear the holding cost, and the annualized figure is just a current level extrapolation; without comparing open interest before and after, you can't infer that new longs are entering. I pay more attention to how price and open interest interact afterward, as this is the basis for judging funding sentiment.
From my old-school perspective, I still treat 80,000 as a key observation point. For friends who have transitioned from traditional markets, when you encounter such a breakthrough level but the intraday price is still down, do you first check changes in open interest or the funding rate, and why?The culprit behind the crash has been found! ETH is holding firm at 2300 without breaking the previous low—is this a reversal or a dead cat bounce?
This morning, ETH fell below 2300, mainly due to a cliff-like outflow of ETF funds: since October, spot ETF net outflows have exceeded $1 billion, setting the highest monthly record this year. Coupled with thin buy orders in the order book—the top five sell volumes are 12 times the buy volumes—there is no support for a short-term sell-off. But not breaking the previous low does not mean a reversal—MACD is still below the zero line, and the technical head and shoulders resistance remains. The area around 2300 looks more like a technical breather after an oversell.
Trading strategy
Aggressive players: Light long positions near 2300, aiming for a short-term rebound
Conservative players: Wait for a rebound near 2350 to set up short positions, or short on a volume breakout below 2280
Core logic: The previous low at 2281 is the key defense line; breaking it means accelerated decline, not breaking it leaves the possibility of a double bottom
At 2281, the main force has already defended twice. The third time, would you still trust it?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH Lô tạm thời 22,78 triệu nhưng không hoảng loạn, vị cá mập bán khống này đang đánh cược điều gì? Một cá mập đã tích lũy lợi nhuận 180 triệu USD, trong 24 giờ vừa qua lại kiếm thêm 25,22 triệu USD, hiện đang có ba vị thể bán không với tổng lỗ tạm thời 22,78 triệu USD: BTC lỗ 12,06 triệu, ETH lỗ 4,76 triệu, SOL lỗ 5,95 triệu. Bề ngoài có vẻ bất lợi, nhưng nhìn kỹ vị thế mới thấy sự tự tin. BTC bán khống 2.637 đồng, danh nghĩa 210 triệu USD, đòn bẩy 5 lần, giá trung bình 76.327; ETH bán khống 106.40The U.S. IRS is about to open a cheap door for crypto tax back payments. The news says fines will be reduced, a 120-day processing window is given, and if funds are insufficient, installment payments are allowed. The whole arrangement aims to be implemented before December.
The significance of this matter lies in the fact that the cost of back reporting in the past was outrageously high. Many people didn’t report not because they didn’t want to, but because they were afraid to. Reporting meant paying fines plus interest, giving up all the floating profits over several years and still not enough. So they simply played dead, locking their coins in cold wallets as if nothing had happened.
Now it’s like the authorities have extended a step down. If you come forward voluntarily, the penalties are lighter and you can pay in installments. For those who casually bought during the 2017 bull market and later forgot to sell, this is probably the lowest-cost chance to get out.
But don’t read this as good news. The fact that taxes can be collected means this portion of holdings is recognized on the books, and it also means regulatory reach has extended to personal wallets. The ones who should really be worried are those who maintain profits by not reporting taxes; once the rules are clear, their hidden advantage disappears.
My advice is not to rush. Export your exchange transaction history, calculate your cost basis and sale times clearly, then decide whether to go for voluntary disclosure or ordinary back reporting—the fines differ greatly between the two. There’s also an easily overlooked point: installments require interest payments, so don’t just look at how much the fines have been reduced. 120 days sounds long, but just reconciling accounts can take up half that time, so don’t waste time hesitating.There is still a significant amount of liquidity sitting above, in the $0.12-$0.13 range. This suggests that $CAP may continue pushing higher toward that area, potentially wiping out a large number of short positions.At 8 AM I bet on an upward move, with the invalidation line at the 1H close breaking 79,840.
At 9 AM it closed at 79,757.8. After three hours, I admitted I was wrong.
The mistake was in the timing, not the range. The 79,000–81,300 range has not been broken yet.
But the judgment needs to be reversed: testing down to 79,220.
The highs have dropped for four consecutive days: 82,060, 81,849, 81,070, 80,955.
The leg raising the lows broke: 79,578 became 79,390. The triangle turned into a step.
The bulls are still being cleared: in the past hour BTC exploded with 12.8 million volume, 97.8% of which were long positions.
In four hours, 20.07 million volume, longs 94.5%; in twelve and twenty-four hours, both above 83%, only one round of clearing.
Open contracts increased by 2.2% in two hours, price fell back, premium -0.03% — shorts are increasing.
Contrary evidence: the breakout candle had 298.8 contracts traded, the 10-24 sell-off at 79,220 had 917 contracts, 32.6%.
A low-volume breakout is usually called a false breakout. I bet down: low volume means no one is taking the offer, not that someone is rushing in; a true breakout comes with volume.
Personal review, not investment advice.
Target 79,220, if broken look at 79,000. If before 10:00 on 10-27 it closes above 81,200, I admit I was wrong.
79,220, will you hold or exit?
$BTC #OctoberFOMC approaching, what variables remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes?🤯 Only dropped 2.26%, 50x long positions wiped out: the truth is leverage calculated as -113.00%
The numbers last night and this morning are flat: BTC 81033.69→80087.70, current price 80474 (-0.18%); ETH 2371.52→2318.00, current price 2341.72. The daily chart shows just a normal pullback, less than 3%.
But not for those with 50x leverage. ETH’s 2.26% drop multiplied by 50x is -113.00%, margin completely wiped out; BTC’s 1.17% retracement, 100x long positions also liquidated. Someone commented "a pipe dream," it’s not the market killing positions, it’s the leverage killing them.
My judgment: this is not a bear market turn, it’s leverage clearing. BTC 80000 has been repeatedly tested this week; if it holds, it’s still a consolidation; ETH is weaker, no support below 2340. What to be cautious of is not the drop itself, but the low-volume slow decline before the FOMC, which easily tricks people into adding positions.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bullish, hold above 80000
Take Profit (TP): $86,900
Stop Loss (SL): $74,000
• ETH — Bearish, reconsider at 2380
Take Profit (TP): $2,060
Stop Loss (SL): $2,620
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR, risk at your own discretion. Meta's revenue exceeded expectations, but the market is focused on the spending guidance. Meta's Q3 revenue beat expectations as anticipated, but what truly made the market revise its stance was the capital expenditure guidance—which is still being raised. The tech giant is channeling cash into AI data centers, and the secondary market acknowledges this logic; the money flowing in this direction is real and substantial.
During the same period, trading volume in US stocks related to AI hardware and computing power has been increasing, while crypto has been downgraded overall. From October 12 to 16, the drop to 83K was exactly this kind of sell-off. The money hasn't disappeared; it's just shifted its queue.
The impact falls on valuation anchors. When risk appetite contracts, assets like BTC, which have no cash flow, are the first to be cut as optional holdings; later, there were several hundred million dollars of active buying during intraday trading, but prices didn't move accordingly, with both sides still probing each other.
The focus is on whether AI spending will face return doubts. Meta's revenue side is still exceeding expectations and holding up for now; as long as one giant lowers its spending guidance, the entire AI trade will be repriced together, and BTC will likely pull back accordingly.
At this point, I won't guess the bottom. Only after the price has stood above 90K for two consecutive days will I consider that funds have truly returned; conversely, if it falls below the 83K low, it means the valuation contraction driven by AI spending is not yet over.
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 $BTC This chain of events is absolutely wild.
The group wildly distributed 10,000 U in red envelopes, and the sudden surge in traffic crashed the system.
The OKEx official quickly apologized and even paid 10,000 U out of pocket to calm the public.
But the big spender who gave out the money then turned around, kept 10,000 U, and shorted, making a killing...
So in the end, only the system and the officials got hit, while the rich doing charity were just withdrawing.$XRP is now at 1.295, down 0.7 points for the week, $BTC down 2.3 points, $ETH down 3.5 points.
It really looks like a decoupling.
But stretched to thirty days, it doesn't seem like it; it dropped 15 points, while Bitcoin only dropped 5 points. The real reason is not complicated; the drops that should have happened by mid-October have already occurred.
I calculated the correlation myself: 0.97 over seven days, 0.93 over thirty days.
They are tightly linked.
Is this still called decoupling?
No money has actually come in; the spot ETF had a net inflow of 4.3 million USD for the whole week, but the net assets shrank from 1.77 billion to 1.48 billion in a month, so the incoming money can't even cover the shrinkage.
1.30 is the key level, with 1.34 above as the 20-day moving average.
Only if it holds above 1.30 can we talk about a rebound, with a target at 1.34. Breaking below 1.285 means a breakdown, next support at 1.2546.
A smaller drop doesn't necessarily mean strength; it might just mean it dropped first.
Keep an eye on which side of 1.30 the daily close lands.
$XRP Conclusion first: $EWZ crashed itself by 22% early this morning, while its corresponding US ETF closed at $42.59 on Friday, and the Brazilian stock market only opens tonight at 21:00.
$EWZ is the tokenized iShares MSCI Brazil ETF issued by Backpack on Solana. OKX spot XEWZ-USDT dropped from 45.10 to 34.01 in 24 hours, currently priced at 35.13, which is 17.5% cheaper than the real underlying price. During the same period, the real underlying closed at 42.59, Bovespa at 205,083, and USD/BRL closed at 5.0499 on Friday — no new information on the underlying.
$EWZ-USDT-SWAP with 20x leverage simultaneously crashed through; 219,000 contracts (about $8.7 million) traded in 24 hours, with only $670,000 open interest left; the 8-hour funding rate was hammered down to the floor at -1%, with shorts paying 1% every 8 hours.
OKX's announcement gave no explanation, and the other 155 tokenized stocks on the platform fluctuated within ±4% today, so it’s not a platform-wide malfunction.
The issue isn’t how much it dropped, but the 17.5% discount sitting there — why is no one arbitraging? Tonight at 21:00 Brazil and 21:30 US markets open simultaneously; before a new anchor is given, do you bet on a recovery or that the anchor is wrong?The focus of this type of whale is not the current unrealized loss of over 20 million USD, but how much capital they are willing to use to withstand this market movement.
A super short seller who has accumulated profits of 180 million USD and gained another 25.22 million USD in the past 24 hours currently holds BTC, ETH, and SOL positions all in unrealized loss, totaling about 22.78 million USD. Among them, BTC is down about 12.06 million, ETH about 4.76 million, and SOL about 5.95 million.
But when you break down the positions, you can understand why they can still hold steady for now:
BTC short position of 2,637 coins, nominal value about 210 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 76,327;
ETH short position of 106,400 coins, nominal value about 250 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 2,322;
SOL short position of 720,000 coins, nominal value about 73.87 million USD, 7x leverage, average price 94.3.
Combined, the nominal positions exceed 530 million USD.
What’s more noteworthy is their safety cushion. According to current position data, the liquidation price for BTC is about 140,000, ETH about 3,838, and SOL about 316, which still leaves significant room from the current prices.
So this is not simply a case of “holding onto losing short positions,” but a typical strategy of using leverage to control positions and exchanging a larger price range for more holding time.
Of course, a distant liquidation price does not mean there is no risk. What really needs caution is if the market continuously breaks through key resistance levels in the opposite direction and keeps approaching these danger zones.
#WillFedPauseInOctober Google will report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Cloud business needs to grow nearly 90% to meet expectations; I won't bottom-fish before the earnings.
The market expects revenue of about $111.6 billion this quarter, with Google Cloud growing around 89% year-over-year, compared to 82% last quarter.
Last quarter's capital expenditure was 44.9 billion, free cash flow turned negative 5.9 billion, and the full-year spending guidance was raised to 195 billion to 205 billion.
That quarter's revenue clearly beat expectations, yet the stock price was still hammered due to increased spending.
The contract is now around 322, two weeks ago it was above 355, and last week it dipped to 318 at the lowest.
The daily MA20 is about 341, MA50 about 343, and the price has already fallen below both lines.
I think this time everyone is focusing not on search ads, but on how much cloud revenue nearly 200 billion in spending actually brings.
If cloud growth falls back to just over 80% and spending increases further, the stock price, which has already dropped significantly, can't really be considered cheap.
I won't make any moves this week; I'll wait for the numbers.
If the daily closes back above 341, it means someone is rushing to cover before earnings, and I'll follow; if it breaks below 318, this correction isn't over yet.
That Wednesday night, are you more focused on Google Cloud's growth rate or the capital expenditure figures?
$GOOGL #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ SanDisk (SNDK) is currently trading at about $1,238, down from $1,692 on October 7, a decline of about 4.6% over the week, but still up 421% year-to-date. The 52-week range spans from $164 to $2,354, with volatility more intense than most cryptocurrencies. The moving average structure is currently bearish: the price is below the short-term moving averages, and on October 22, it dropped 8.51% in a single day with volume swelling to 10.41 million shares, marking the largest recent bearish candle. The RSI has fallen but still has room before reaching oversold levels. The real anchor is the earnings report on October 29—Forward PE is only 5.76, and the market is betting on whether the performance can justify this valuation. The core contradiction in the news lies between the "data center narrative" and the "consumer cycle." Last quarter, data center revenue surged 645% year-over-year, with management framing AI inference demand for flash memory as a long-term story. Q4 revenue guidance is $7.75 to $8.25 billion, with gross margin guidance of 79% to 81%. However, the stock price halved from $2,354 to $1,238 not due to performance but expectations—when a stock's Forward PE is only 5.76, the market is not pricing in growth but rather "growth unsustainability." On October 14, it became the exclusive storage supplier for Meta VR glasses, and on October 13, it launched the Guardian series; these news items failed to lift the stock price. Before the earnings report, the $1,228 low is the only meaningful reference point. $BTC You can observe that in past bull markets just after recovery
The timeline from peak to trough corrections falls on
26, 22, 11, 22, 61, 60 days
Among them, the 20-day range occurs most frequently, and the longest correction only lasted 61 days
And now from the highest to the lowest, it has already corrected for 33 days
In the next month, if the decline continues
I will gradually position my low-leverage trades
$ETH The correction durations vary greatly
There was once a correction lasting 180 days with a 28% drop
If ETH now falls 28% in the worst case
It will reach around 2000 in price
And if it falls further now, at most it will drop another 15%This week I'm more worried about the shorts getting squeezed! BTC dropped from 84,900 back to 80,000, without even a decent daily rebound. Would it really be that easy for short sellers to make money? I still lean bearish, but right now I'm more cautious about a sharp rally first to flush out shorts before it drops again! This morning BTC is still hovering around 80,000, ETH fell to 2319 and has been weak for 4 hours. On October 30, about 152,000 BTC options expire, with a notional value of around $12.3 billion, and the biggest pain point is near 79,000. Position adjustments near settlement could cause even more violent price spikes! The key is that the market has already priced in no rate hike in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December is still about 76%! Even if the Fed decision triggers a big bullish candle, it’s more likely to be seen as a news expectation gap and short covering. After all, this week is information-heavy: Fed meeting on Wednesday, GDP and PCE releases on Thursday, and earnings season packed in. My judgment remains a bearish consolidation, but I won’t aggressively short near 80,000 this week! If BTC fails to hold 80,800–81,100 on a rebound, that’s where I want to short more; same for ETH if it can’t reclaim 2360–2370. Getting the direction right but entering at the wrong price is the real tragedy!#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The earnings report will definitely be explosive, but 78% of people are betting on exceeding expectations, which is the most dangerous signal! Profits have long been chewed up by the market, as proven by the stock price halving from its peak.
My sharp view: firmly do not chase the rally; after the earnings report, when sentiment peaks, look for opportunities to short. Two major hidden risks: first, HBM4 may underperform due to Nvidia's delayed shipments, with Samsung possibly even overtaking; second, the 40 trillion buyback has ended, the bottom-supporting funds are withdrawing, and foreign capital is selling off wildly. Unless the conference call announces a new buyback plan exceeding 30 trillion, "all good news priced in" will mark the start of a crash. The better the performance, the more likely it is a bull trap!$BTC is now at 80074, down 0.78% in 24 hours, with the total market cap down 4.24% in the same period. BTC's dominance is 59.98%, just one step away from 60%. The external environment over the weekend is forcing risk reduction: gold prices fell below $4000, the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran is rising, and the Brazil stock ETF listed in Tokyo was halted due to heavy sell orders. The same situation is visible in perpetual contracts, with EWZ funding rate at -1.48%, the most negative in the market, indicating shorts are hedging Brazilian assets with contracts. In the crypto space, major coins barely moved, the bleeding is in altcoins: $Q dropped 25.93%, $COMP fell 11.17%, with turnover rates of 18% and 17% respectively. Against the trend, $CAP rose 38.48%, turnover 46%, funding rate +0.07%, driven by paid leveraged longs. In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance is expected to surpass 60%, with altcoins continuing to underperform. The watershed is BTC at 80000; if it holds, the decline will be limited to altcoins, but if it breaks, risk-off selling will include BTC, causing the total market cap to fall faster. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ First consider the worst-case scenario: if pre-issuance review is weakened, ordinary people may have to bear more costs to identify low-quality projects.
The California DFPI has sent a letter to the SEC opposing the proposed crypto asset financing rules, concerned about limitations on state-level registration and qualification review authority. I am more concerned about two points: the potential reduction in review constraints and the uncertainty of the rules being implemented; this cannot simply be counted as a financing benefit.
My risk control reminder is: verify the issuing entity and disclosure materials before participating, and clearly define for yourself the maximum loss you can bear.The weekend was relatively stable, but next week will be hell mode.
The Federal Reserve meeting is early Thursday morning. It's basically consensus that there won't be a rate hike in October, but the key is Powell's stance. Inflation exploded in September; if he continues hawkish, a rate hike in December is basically set. A week later is the midterm elections, which adds more drama.
That night, there will also be the September core PCE. CPI and PPI both blew up, and PCE probably won't look good either. October inflation is very likely to be higher than September. The next rate decision is in December, with the dot plot as well. Without resolving the US-Iran issue, 2027 will also be tough.
Earnings reports are also piling up: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, SK Hynix, Samsung—all major AI and semiconductor companies. From what I know, the content should be decent, but whether the market buys it is another matter.
Honestly, $BTC was okay over the weekend, dipping below 80,000 then pulling back. At this stage, it depends on whether there are any surprises during the Asian session. I expect quite a few people to seek safe havens next, so volatility will increase. When Bitcoin dropped to around seventy-nine thousand, there were still people mining with small rigs costing thirty-five dollars.
These machines are called lottery miners, usually priced between thirty-five and four hundred dollars, with such low hash power that it’s almost negligible, but the monthly electricity cost is typically only one to six dollars. You can plug them into a home outlet, they don’t take up space, and they’re quiet.
If you’re lucky enough to mine a block, the reward is 3.12 bitcoins, which at the current price of seventy-nine thousand amounts to over two hundred fifty thousand dollars. This money is sent directly from the network to your own wallet, without going through any platform, no waiting for approval, and no disputes.
The probability is indeed very low, but not zero. Last year, over two hundred single blocks were mined by independent miners, some of whose equipment was not much more powerful than these small machines. Luck can’t be calculated, but with many participants, someone will eventually hit it.
The biggest difference from buying a lottery ticket is the time structure. A lottery ticket ends as soon as you scratch it, but a mining rig draws a new prize every ten minutes. As long as you keep the machine running, you keep participating, one hundred forty-four times a day.
I don’t recommend treating it as income; the word "income" is too heavy. Think of it as a lottery ticket that costs a few dollars a month and can be renewed indefinitely, and your mindset will be much better. If you really want to get started, the first thing isn’t to buy a machine, but to check your electricity bill—if the electricity price is over fifty cents per kWh, it’s basically not worth it.How much money does the $CAP dog whale actually have?#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The growth of Robinhood's trading business is highly likely to continue, but the source and nature of this "growth" are undergoing a critical shift: moving from being driven by crypto cycles in the past to being supported jointly by prediction markets, stock and options trading, and user asset deposits. This means the sustainability of growth depends on whether the new engines can continue to scale and to some extent offset the cyclical drag from the crypto business. Tonight's market shows a contradictory phenomenon: BTC down 0.44%, ETH down 1.47%, SOL down 0.73%, with the major market anchors basically flat. But on the other hand, APR is up 65.79%, JCT up 43.53%, CAP up 27.92%, while BIR is down 35.28%, IRYS down 35.10%, ORDER down 31.25%.
The gains and losses are concentrated in a few tokens, neither a broad rally nor a broad decline. This indicates that funds are selectively picking tokens rather than pricing the entire market.
Looking at another detail: TUSDT is up 16.38%, but the funding rate is -0.5780%. Price is rising while the funding rate turns negative, moving in opposite directions. A negative funding rate usually means shorts pay longs, but it cannot be directly inferred as "inevitable short squeeze"—the funding rate prices existing contracts, not a vote on future direction.
The scariest is SOXL, with radar conf78.6, positioned at 23% in a sideways bottom area, volume ratio 0.0x, main net inflow +29,226, and 4 suspected wash trades filtered out. This is "what the data looks like before a rise"—low volume, bottom area, funds moving, but not yet a position to chase.
What should not be done now: chasing APR after a 65% rise, or bottom fishing BIR after a 35% drop. In a divergent market, the margin for error in directional judgment is lower than usual.
This is a personal opinion based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $CAP has been quite strong these past two days 🚀
At 6 PM the day before yesterday, it was still at 0.069, now it's 0.114, up more than 60% in two days. In 24h, it rose from 0.079 to 0.115, an increase of about 40%. The rise is steady, with each high point higher than the last, not a spike followed by a dump.
However, the funding rate is already +0.03%~0.06%, bullish sentiment is quite hot, I’m not chasing, waiting for a pullback.
Here’s how I see the key levels:
· 0.107-0.108: Consolidated horizontally for several hours from 2 AM to 6 AM today, the lower shadows stopped here, forming a new base
· 0.104: The low point of the shakeout at 1 AM, breaking below means the structure is broken
· 0.115: The new high just touched, no trapped positions above for now
My plan:
· Direction: Buy on pullback
· Entry: 0.1075-0.1085
· Stop loss: 0.1040
· Target 1: 0.1150
· Target 2: 0.1210
If it breaks up directly without a pullback, then forget it, I won’t chase. If the hourly candle closes below 0.104, this trade is void, wait for it to stabilize again. Coins that have risen 60% fluctuate a lot, I only take small positions.
What do you think, how much more room does CAP have this wave?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR
#CAP #ContractStrategy #Trend$ZEC 1189.69 long position opened. The reasoning is simple: 1200 has been reclaimed, the low point no longer moves down, and the previous bearish logic has been disproved. Moved to breakeven, this is the only move.
1204.83. Current position, 4.83 points above 1200. Floating profit 63.65%. To be clear, it hasn't exited yet—reclaiming the threshold is just the first step, holding and moving further is the second step.
1225.99. The old resistance above, which was my cost line when shorting before, has now become my target. One line has changed identity twice; this is the interesting part of the market.
Now. Below 1189.69 is the dead line, above 1225.99 is the target, still 1.76% away. The whole night’s action is just one move, the rest is waiting. Lock the phone, sleep for two hours—the high leverage trade profits from speed, not from watching the market. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The new week opened, and all three short positions are green, totaling +500.64. This account needs to be broken down.
$BTC 20x +253.79 (+55.34%), marked at 79,978.25, line at 85,872.58. The most profit, but also the most fragile—if the price moves up just over seven points, this 253 will reset to zero.
$DOGE 3x +174.93 (+18.03%), marked at 0.0768565, line at 0.1084043. Gains slowly and retreats slowly, the only one among the three that doesn’t need daily monitoring.
$UNI 9x +71.92 (+75.62%), highest return rate. But it’s the only one retreating: yesterday +83.92%, today +75.62%, marked from 6.8369 to 6.8971, a daily pullback of eight points.
These three were opened in the same direction, same week; the market has indeed been falling during this period—profits come from direction, not foresight. It’s not like when I closed BZ yesterday: that was me admitting a mistake actively, these three I just sat on without moving, and happened to catch the trend.
So today, I’m not adding a single position. Having 500 more in the account doesn’t prove I can read the market.
A few words: it’s easiest to misattribute when making money. Don’t mistake directional gains for your own skill.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Stop guessing about what kind of Tai Chi the Fed is playing; the market logic has long changed.
No matter how Powell plays Tai Chi at the meeting, this PMI data has directly revealed the trump card. Manufacturing hit a 53-month high, and corporate selling price increases are the fastest in over a year. This is not a soft landing; this is clearly a ghost story of re-inflation. The biggest market variable is the complete reversal of macro logic. Previously, a weak economy meant betting on rate cuts; now, a strong economy means guarding against rate hikes. The pricing logic for risk assets has already changed.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin; the market has directly fallen below a key level, showing that capital is voting with its feet. ETFs now are all short-lived, quick in and out money; there is no long-term liquidity willing to step in to support the bottom. The overhead trapped positions are piled up heavily. As long as the high interest rate blade is not put down, Bitcoin cannot enter a one-sided bull market.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum; it remains the softest target. The ecosystem has no new explosive points, and the capital side has no support. When the market dips slightly, it falls the hardest. Don’t think you can bottom-fish just because it has fallen a lot. When liquidity dries up, it doesn’t even know where the bottom is. Control your hands and don’t catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold; this is the truly resilient hard currency. Economic overheating combined with geopolitical conflicts means safe-haven funds and central bank buying firmly hold the bottom line. The more the Fed stubbornly maintains high interest rates, the heavier the market’s worries about a hard economic landing, and the more stable gold’s long-term independent trend becomes. Don’t meddle in short-term fluctuations.$BTC took another dip this morning, with Binance hitting a low of 79,390 at 7 AM Beijing time. The one-hour trading volume was 53.7 million USD, about 2.4 times the 24-hour average. It's still hovering around 79,950, and 80,000 hasn't been truly reclaimed.
$ETH dropped to 2,308.7 on the same candle, just shy of 2,300, down 1.5% in 24 hours, weaker than BTC.
Interestingly, liquidations have cooled down; CoinGlass data shows only 118 million USD liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, nowhere near the 800+ million on Saturday.
But the bulls haven't left at all. Binance futures accounts show a long-to-short ratio of 2.19, with about 70% of accounts going long. BTC open interest is still around 94,000 coins, and the funding rate is 0.003%.
My view is that leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out, and everyone is crouching at 80,000 to catch the bottom. This kind of level is prone to another dip. I won't touch it until the US stock market opens tonight and the ETF flows come out.Robinhood (HOOD) Q3 Earnings Preview
Key Highlights: Continuous inflow of retail funds, growth driven by options and event contracts, stable interest income
Risks: Crypto business dragging down performance, results highly dependent on market enthusiasm, regulatory and peer competition pressures
Key Tracking Points: Net client deposits, event contract growth rate, crypto trading volume
New business is the growth engine, crypto business is the biggest drag
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #AWS computing power demand is strong, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings?
The leader has something to say
Amazon announced its Q3 earnings on October 29. CEO Jassy said that AWS's computing capacity for 2026 is already fully sold out, most of the capacity for 2027 is booked, and a significant portion for 2028 is also reserved. The demand for AI computing power is this strong.
I believe the key to this earnings report is not revenue, but profit margin and cash flow. Selling out computing power is good, but to expand capacity, huge capital expenditures are required. The market's biggest fear now is this kind of bottomless pit money burn. If high investment crushes profit margins and free cash flow, even if AWS grows fast, the funds will vote with their feet. This is the same dilemma Meta and Microsoft faced before.
On the market, AMZN rose slightly by 0.25%, xAMZN up 0.27%. Market sentiment is cautious.
This indirectly diverts from crypto. Tech giants continue to attract funds for infrastructure, while Bitcoin lacks external growth. In the short term, it still depends on macro factors, FOMC, and oil prices.
Last night Bitcoin took a waterfall drop; now let's see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the fall, just set your orders with stop losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $IRYS The divergence in $BTC is not just about bulls and bears, but whether to first seize the rebound or wait for the range to re-accept the price. Kraken USD spot is currently around 79,657, with the low in the past 24 hours about 79,300; the quotes below the round number provide a practical test ground for these two choices.
Johnny tends to first look for a rebound test at 82,000 before deciding the next step, based on his view that shorts accumulated over the weekend. Victorious, on the other hand, requires the price to be re-accepted by the value area before considering longs, and also waits for acceptance below last week's low if the price moves down. The former's explanation of crowded shorts has not been independently verified, and the latter does not automatically trigger just by seeing a single wick.
I lean more towards the latter's confirmation sequence but would not write waiting off as bearish. First observe whether 80,000 can be reclaimed and held on a pullback; if the rebound continues to be blocked, I will not trade the rebound target prematurely. If the low is raised after reclaiming, the judgment of non-participation can be overturned. Ultimately, the two paths depend on whether the price can stand firm again, not on who shouts more firmly.
Would you first verify the reclaim of the level, or wait for stable transactions within the range? This is a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. The $HYPE project team spent 67 million USD on buybacks in one month, but the price still dropped sharply by 22%.
The positive news didn't even cause a ripple, which only shows that the selling pressure in this pool is fiercer than expected.
The official buy orders have basically been used by large funds as ready-made liquidity for selling.
If buybacks really worked, the market would have already peaked; what can hold it at this level?
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Code vulnerabilities and market vulnerabilities, who is harvesting whom?
📊ETH Market Snapshot
✅ News: Ethereum X100 was hacked, losing 4.85 million. The breach in the defense line mirrors the ruthless harvesting path preset by the main market forces.
✅ Trend structure: After falling from the high of 2777, the price hovers around 2364. The 4-hour EMA triple lines form a dome suppression, and the MACD stays below the zero line without lifting. The sporadic red bars resemble a dying ECG, with the rebound lacking incremental capital support.
✅ Key levels: The intraday low has touched 2281, and the 2300 support is precarious. Without incremental funds, all rebounds are just ammunition for short sellers.
✅ Position perspective: The short position at 2583 has an unrealized profit of 845%, with a forced liquidation price at 2765. The vacuum zone of over four hundred dollars in between forms the confidence base. If it rebounds near 2400, consider continuing to roll positions to squeeze the short trend.
Core
The gradual decline over several days looks more like a liquidation program written by the main forces; don’t mistake technical rebounds for reversals. Testing the previous low at 2281 downward is highly probable. If 2300 breaks, the weak structure will continue. The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice; please strictly control risks.
$BTC $ETH $IRYS
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Optimistic: Yield exceeds expectations, securing more high-priced long-term contracts → HBM4 contribution rapidly rises from Q4, profits continue to exceed expectations;
• Baseline: Yield meets guidance, steadily climbing → Q3 profits supported by older products, HBM4 is the main growth driver for 2027;
• Pessimistic: Yield below expectations, customers pressuring prices, competitors ramping up → HBM premium quickly narrows, profit upcycle peaks earlier than expected. Why have ETH and gold recently dropped??
In one sentence, the core reason:
The common main theme for both declines: rising real interest rates in the US and a stronger dollar; gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure, while ETH is a high-risk speculative asset, facing valuation cuts and leveraged liquidations when interest rates tighten.
1. Common negative factors (most important)
1. The Fed's rate cut expectations are delayed, and high interest rates will last longer
US employment and inflation data are strong, the market lowers rate cut expectations, even reprices the possibility of rate hikes, 10-year US Treasury yields rise, and the dollar strengthens.
- Gold: It does not generate interest itself; the higher the interest rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold, so funds flow to US Treasuries and dollar deposits;
- ETH: As a high-risk growth asset, rising interest rates mean speculative funds shrink, borrowing costs for trading crypto increase, and leveraged funds exit first.
2. Geopolitical logic reversal
Middle East conflicts push up oil prices; the market no longer sees this purely as a "safe-haven benefit" but worries that rising oil prices will drive inflation rebound, forcing the Fed to remain hawkish. Safe-haven buying retreats, and previously accumulated long positions take profits and exit.
3. Technical negative feedback liquidations
Previous rallies accumulated many profitable long positions; after breaking key support, programmatic orders and stop-loss orders trigger in chains, causing more selling as prices fall, amplifying the decline. $ETH $BTC The same set of Robinhood data can tell two completely different stories: crypto trading volume increased 61% month-over-month but decreased 38% year-over-year. Looking at only one side can easily lead to overestimating or underestimating growth. This comes from the company's August operational data released on September 10: nominal crypto trading volume was $17.5 billion, with about $7.4 billion on the Robinhood App and about $10.1 billion on Bitstamp. This is not October data, nor is it the yet-to-be-released Q3 revenue. Nominal trading volume cannot be directly multiplied by a uniform fee rate to represent the platform's earnings. User funds provide another observation point: net inflows in August were $4 billion; nominal stock trading volume increased 68% year-over-year, while options contract volume decreased 10% month-over-month. These indicators do not neatly move in the same direction, indicating that the activity levels of different platform businesses need to be viewed separately. The company also notes that monthly data is unaudited and final financial reports may be adjusted. Robinhood's official website confirms that the Q3 earnings call is scheduled for October 27 at 5 PM Eastern Time, which is 5 AM Beijing Time on the 28th. My focus is not to speculate on the stock price first, but to look at three things: how much trading volume can convert into trading revenue, whether net inflows continue, and whether revenue depends more on a certain high-volatility business. My judgment: if user assets continue to accumulate and monetization efficiency remains stable, growth will be more resilient even if a certain type of trading cools down; if revenue relies solely on unilateral surges in crypto or options, then "stable growth" should be discounted. If both net inflows and revenue conversion weaken simultaneously, alsoThere is progress with HBM4, and profits have clearly thickened with HBM4, but there are still several hurdles in between. For SK Hynix's earnings report this time, I will first check whether these hurdles have been cleared. The company's official invitation letter on October 21 confirms: the third-quarter results will be released before 9 a.m. Seoul time on October 28, with a conference call at 9 a.m., corresponding to 8 a.m. Beijing time. This is still a preview before the earnings report; profit forecasts found online should not be taken as already announced results. The first hurdle is revenue recognition. Customer validation, order signing, shipment, and revenue formation are at different stages. If the conference call updates on HBM4 progress, it is necessary to clarify which stage it corresponds to and when revenue is expected to contribute; do not just increase the full-year profit based on hearing "progress is smooth." The second hurdle is profit quality. New products may sell at a premium but may also face ramp-up costs, yield issues, packaging expenses, and depreciation. What really needs to be compared is whether the overall profit margin has improved after product structure optimization, not just the technical parameters of a single chip. The third hurdle is cash recovery. Even if orders are stronger, if capital expenditures and working capital usage also expand, profit growth may not immediately translate into free cash flow. The earnings report should also analyze HBM contributions separately from ordinary DRAM and NAND price changes. My judgment: only when the volume ramp-up timing is clearer and profit and cash flow correspond can the heat around HBM4 be closer to a sustainable investment rationale. If the company does not disclose product contributions, then acknowledge the unknown first; if growth is mainly driven by traditional memory price increases, risks should still be examined as with cyclical stocks. On October 28, what you most want to hear is the customers$ETH
2300.00, the lowest price of ETH in the past 24 hours this morning, both OKX and Binance show this exact figure, not a cent more or less.
The 200-day moving average is at 2320; a couple of days ago it was said to hold, but today it was directly broken. I reviewed the pattern of this round; every time it breaks below the 200-day moving average, it grinds inside for a few days, and it seems to be the case this time as well.
All the negative factors have actually piled up together. Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, latest at -0.1259%. Retail investors are transferring BTC to Binance hitting a 6-month high, while whales are actually withdrawing. Retail is buying, smart money is exiting.
BTC market dominance is 57%, breaking the highest since November 2022 according to breaking news. I casually checked CoinGecko’s data, almost 60%—different calculations but the direction is the same: money is concentrating into BTC, Ethereum is being drained.
I used to think Ethereum dropping to the 200-day moving average was an opportunity, but this time I don’t want to catch the fall. I’ll wait until it stands back up on its own.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Production recovery does not mean you can get oil cheaply and on time. This is a layer often overlooked in the Middle East crude oil topic. On October 21, GC Intelligence cited the IEA October report stating that global oil production rebounded in September, but Middle East refined oil and liquefied petroleum gas exports were still less than half of pre-war levels. This refers to refined oil and LPG, and should not be confused with "all crude oil exports being halved." There is also pressure on the transportation side. On October 21, CNBC cited a Goldman Sachs report saying that the global average crude oil freight rate has exceeded $20 per barrel, about $3 a year ago. The report pointed out that high freight costs squeeze refinery profits and may also be passed on to refined oil prices. This was the freight estimate at the time, not the spot oil price on October 26. Therefore, between "production recovery" and "risk disappearance," there are channels, ships, insurance, and refining capacity. Focusing only on Brent price fluctuations easily overlooks the fact that landed costs remain relatively high. True relief requires both supply recovery and transportation cost reduction to occur together. My judgment: The impact of energy risks on BTC must go through inflation expectations and financial conditions. If high costs continue to be passed on to the end user, the market may delay easing expectations; but if demand weakens triggering risk aversion, U.S. Treasury yields may also fall, so it is not mechanical to say "oil rises, bond yields must rise, BTC must fall." Next, I will watch whether freight rates fall back and refinery profits recover, then see how the dollar and U.S. Treasuries respond. Continued normalization of navigation and freight rates will weaken the risk premise of this judgment. What do you think the market is moreIs the consensus of Bitcoin BTC truly unbreakable? Analyzing the potential risks behind the "digital gold" narrative
Bitcoin has spent over a decade establishing its market position as digital gold, but no consensus is eternal. Its long-term value depends on technical security, degree of decentralization, economic model, regulatory environment, and market confidence—all factors that may be challenged as times change.
1. Quantum computing may impact the existing cryptographic system
Bitcoin currently uses elliptic curve cryptography, which may face challenges from quantum computing technology in the future. Theoretically, sufficiently powerful fault-tolerant quantum computers could use Shor's algorithm to derive private keys from public keys.
The real difficulty lies not only in technological upgrades but also in coordinating the entire ecosystem to complete the migration. Developers, miners, exchanges, wallet providers, and holders all need to participate, while addresses that have been dormant for a long time or have lost private keys are even harder to handle. However, the quantum threat does not necessarily mean Bitcoin cannot upgrade; the specific risk still depends on the pace of technological development and the community's response capability.
2. The degree of decentralization is facing real-world tests
Bitcoin was originally designed to reduce reliance on centralized institutions, but today, the influence of mining pools, institutional investors, ETF custodians, and large holders is continuously increasing.
Although ordinary users can hold and transact coins independently, it is very difficult for them to directly influence the protocol's development direction. As more assets are custodied through centralized institutions, Bitcoin's advantages in censorship resistance and self-custody may also be limited by real-world conditions ETF outflows slowing down and ETF capital inflows are two different things. Today, when discussing BTC buying pressure, I will first clarify this line. As of the verification on October 26, the latest trading day for the US spot Bitcoin ETFs listed by Farside is still October 23: a temporary net outflow of $137.9 million, with the HODL column still showing a dash, which cannot be treated as zero, nor can this total be considered a final value. October 24 and 25 were weekend days with no new US trading day capital flows, which does not mean the BTC spot market stopped trading. The breakdown is more worth looking at: on the 23rd, IBIT had an outflow of $110.3 million, FBTC an outflow of $31.8 million, and MSBT an inflow of $4.2 million. The net outflow on the 22nd was $635.6 million. Comparing the two days, the disclosed outflow scale has clearly narrowed, but the current direction is still net outflow. This set of data supports "redemption pressure easing" but does not yet support "institutions making large-scale re-entry purchases." It also cannot tell us the selling motives of each holder, nor cover all behaviors of spot, derivatives, and global capital on exchanges. My judgment: for BTC to stabilize, capital and price need to confirm each other. If subsequent complete data turns to sustained net inflows, the directions of IBIT and FBTC also improve, and BTC pullbacks can be supported by spot buying, then evidence of buying pressure recovery will strengthen. If outflows expand again and prices weaken simultaneously, the optimistic judgment must be withdrawn. The FOMC is imminent, and ETF data looks more like a capital temperature gauge. You pay more attention to net inflows turning