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It's over, Bitcoin $BTC failed to hold $80,000!
$BTC fell below $80,000 again today, and $ETH also dropped to around $2,300.
Just a few days ago, BTC had rebounded to $84,600, but in just a few days it fell back to the starting point.
The most troublesome thing is that this time the market not only lacks buying pressure, but the macro environment has not improved either. $ZEC
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5%, oil prices stay around $115, and the probability of the Fed raising rates again in December has reached about 80%.
In this environment, it is very difficult for funds to re-enter the crypto market on a large scale.
What I worry about most now is that BTC will not quickly recover after falling below $80,000.
If it can't hold $78,000 next, $76,000 may soon come back into our view again. Robinhood's on-chain transaction volumes in the past two days were $542M and $484M respectively. Compared to the all-time high of $3.5B, it has shrunk by about 86%, and its ranking in total chain transaction volume has dropped to fifth.
The sluggishness of $PONS is no longer just a problem of the project itself; the overall transaction activity on Robinhood Chain is continuously declining.
For PONS to turn things around, it probably has to wait for Robinhood Chain to heat up again.
With transaction volumes continuously shrinking, protocol revenue is also decreasing. Without new incremental funds and trading demand, relying solely on buyback and burn is unlikely to reverse the current situation.
Next, it depends on whether Robinhood Chain can bring a new wave of momentum.
Do you think $PONS still has a chance to make a comeback? #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is imminent, can HBM4 boost profitability? #Can HBM4 mass production drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs? Many previously said that HBM4 mass production was a fully priced positive, but Hynix just started small batch deliveries in Q2, achieving over 60 trillion KRW in quarterly profit with a 76% profit margin. This hardly looks like the positive has been fully priced in; clearly, a new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in Q3, HBM4 capacity is officially ramping up, and contract prices for regular DRAM are still rising. Both sides are driving performance upward. The small shipment fluctuations from Nvidia's new cards before are no match for the big trend of profits hitting new highs again. All the inventory held is at high prices, and the performance for the next few quarters is basically clear. Hynix pushing profits to historic highs thanks to HBM4 is really no surprise.Brothers, this morning I'll first lay out the hidden signals: on the surface, it looks like a uniform drop, BTC broke below 80000 and is still hovering around 79581, but the real divergence isn't in the drop percentages, it's in the one-hour positions and trading volume.
🌍 Regarding the macro environment, I'm quite neutral: Monday originally had no major data to support the market, and only secondary indicators in the evening, so it's not surprising to see low volume and sideways movement. Those forcing a direction today are most likely to be misled by a single bearish candle; low volume trading really tests patience.
🔍 ETH is the biggest hidden concern this session: it has the deepest daily drop, positions shrank by 4.26% over the day, and even on the one-hour scale, it's still shrinking by 0.49%. While others have started to recover within an hour, ETH is still lagging behind. This isn't just following the drop, it's leaking on its own — that's the hidden signal.
💼 Position battles are more interesting this session: within one hour, BTC and SOL have turned positive, only ETH hasn't caught up, indicating that short-term retreat steps are diverging. This kind of divergence is more worth watching than uniform rises or falls; it's neither a full retreat nor a full comeback.
👀 I'm highlighting ZEC separately this session: it turned green, down 1.67% for the day, but trading volume rose 7.29%, the only one with increased volume. Despite the drop, turnover hasn't stopped, which is different from the three major mainstreams whose volumes shrank by 20%.
My strategy is divided into two parts:
① ETH is still leaking on the one-hour scale, so I won't buy in yet;
② I won't chase BTC until it stands back above 80000.
Bullets are reserved only for directions that turn positive on the one-hour and hold. If the hidden signal doesn't turn, I don't move; once it turns, I follow immediately.$DOS continues to look bearish, the overall trend is bearish. The dog whale is highly controlling the market, a bit afraid it might suddenly stretch and dip down, so let's wait and see first.
Long-short ratio: Retail investors are bullish.
Retail side: Binance retail account long-short ratio is 2.4282, OKX retail account long-short ratio is 1.37.
Whale side: Whale count long-short ratio is 2.3568 (many are bullish), but whale position long-short ratio has plummeted to 0.9067.
Funds and on-chain data: Spot bottom support is baiting bulls, on-chain is highly controlled.
Core on-chain signals:
Extreme control: Take a look at position distribution, the top Vesting (Proxy) alone holds 79.41%! Adding several other multisig vaults, control exceeds 90%! This is not a free market at all, it's a private server game run by the whales themselves.
Crazy deposits to secondary exchanges: In the past 24 hours, KuCoin balance surged 521% (increased by $7.07 million), **MEXC surged 201%** (increased by $3.16 million). The main force is frantically moving bricks to these small and medium exchanges, ready to dump "ship" at any time.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ I believe the growth of Robinhood's trading business is very likely to continue, but the form of continuation is undergoing a structural shift—the growth engine is switching from the previously high-volatility crypto assets to a combination anchored by stocks and options, with prediction markets as the incremental breakout point. However, the sustainability of this shift depends on whether a key constraint can be broken: the increase in trading activity has not yet effectively translated into simultaneous growth in new users and net deposits. No rate hike in October is already useless, BTC breaks below 80,000 and continues to look bearish
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29th is basically without suspense.
The latest rate forecast shows a 90% probability of maintaining 3.75%—4.00%, and only a 10% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The market has fully priced in a pause in rate hikes this month.
What really deserves attention are the last two meetings:
🔸 Probability of rates rising to 4.00%—4.25% in December reaches 68.9%
🔸 Probability of maintaining 4.00%—4.25% in January 2027 is 53.3%
🔸 Probability of further rising to 4.25%—4.50% reaches 28.5%
This indicates the market is trading not on October, but on the expectation that high rates will be maintained longer, or even that rate hikes will resume.
For BTC and ETH, the current pause in October is no longer considered bullish. The press conference continues to release hawkish signals, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen again, and the rebound space for the crypto market will be further compressed.
BTC has already fallen below $80,000, the round number level has turned from support into resistance, and the short-term weak structure has not changed. ETH is inherently weaker than BTC; as BTC continues to probe lower, ETH will follow with a catch-down drop. Once 2300 is broken, the downside space will open further.
Therefore, the biggest trap this week is rushing to go long just because of the words "no rate hike." The short-term outlook remains bearish. What truly determines the market direction is whether the December rate hike expectations will continue to heat up. Many people are waiting for BTC to reach the 75,000 to 76,000 range.
The two white circles indicate the areas.
The BTC price at 75,000 was the price during the last FOMC meeting on September 16, and also the level it pulled back to after the Clarity Act failed to pass.
If consensus believes that the current round faces several risk factors that could cause a significant pullback to 75,000, then such consensus would be overly objective and unrealistic.
For someone like me, I do short-term BTC trading on the 4H timeframe. If it effectively breaks below 79,700, then I really shouldn’t hold too many long positions and should try to stay flat, waiting to see how to act once the risks materialize.
However, at the moment, I’m not very willing to rashly open short positions at 79,700.
The reason is that all the risky events this week are concentrated within the next 72 hours. The safest approach, regardless of long or short, is to keep positions small (less than 5%), which might be the best strategy.
For positions already at a floating loss, once the trading logic structure here is broken, I will choose to stop loss and exit for the portion exceeding 5% of the position.比特币在10月的走势让多空双方都显得狼狈。上周比特币一度跌破8万美元，本周回升至8.4万美元附近，随后又回落至8.1万美元左右。每一次反弹看似充满希望，但每一次反转都暴露出背后信心的匮乏。而在比特币价格之下，市场的损伤要严重得多：约80%的加密代币正在下跌，即便这一旗舰资产在相对狭窄的区间内反复震荡。 数据揭示了什么 在10月17日至23日期间，市场广度急剧恶化。尽管比特币从近期高点的回撤幅度相对温和，但代币的中位数跌幅达到两位数。这种分化是本轮调整的核心特征：资金并未完全撤离加密市场，而是向比特币和少数流动性较好的大盘币集中。 比特币多次未能站稳8.4万美元上方，显示买盘跟进乏力。 山寨币广度崩塌，多数代币呈现更低的高点和更低的低点。 小市值币种成交量萎缩，放大了下行波动。 山寨币为何持续失血 三股力量在起作用。第一，流动性稀缺。在ETF资金持续流入比特币数月之后，边际资金对投机性代币兴趣寥寥。第二，代币供应过剩严重：解锁、风投分配和新项目发行不断稀释持有者。第三，曾经推动山寨币上涨的叙事轮动已经停滞，项目缺乏新增需求来吸收抛压。 比特币自身的反复加剧了问题。当市场龙头无法维持突破时$ETH
Near 2300, why is the decline larger than BTC?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ETH's 24-hour change is -2.40%, ranging between 2300—2371.42 USDT.
BTC declined 1.61% on the same basis, ETH's pullback is greater, indicating no relative defense in this round. When the market contracts, high elasticity assets may bear a higher discount, but the price is insufficient to prove that on-chain revenue is deteriorating simultaneously.
If the ETH to BTC ratio continues to decline, rotation expectations should be lowered; if it stabilizes at a low level while the ratio continues to rise, then increase the judgment for independent recovery.The three things I fear the most have nothing to do with "it performing well".
$UNI
First, I'm afraid it will retrace below 6.9. 6.9 is the level it just broke above; if it can't hold, it's a false breakout. At such a newly flipped level, the most common move is to dip back once before rising again. At that time, unrealized gains shrink from 151% to seventy or eighty percent, and people are most prone to panic trades.
Second, I'm afraid of adding to my position. After a 3% rise, the most tempting thought is "just add one more to double up." A 2.94% buffer means adding once pushes the stop loss to just over 1.5%—a razor-thin margin. To put it professionally, it's a counterproductive trade under diminishing risk-reward; in plain terms: adding more when it’s increasingly unprofitable is courting disaster.
Third, I'm afraid it turns into a zombie position. A 50x funding rate is charged on nominal positions, so even if the direction is right, you pay. Grinding for a day eats up nearly half the profits.
Once these three points are clear, it’s simple: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, follow through if it breaks 7.0 up to 7.2, admit the mistake if it falls back to 6.724. $ETH $BTC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Today, SOL and ZEC followed completely opposite scripts, and it's especially interesting to look at them together.
SOL's on-chain data is unbelievably impressive: RWA surged from 700 million in May to 4.4 billion, with BlackRock and State Street as issuers, 1.4 million addresses holding tokenized stocks, and a trading volume of 4.4 billion in September. But the price is stuck around 106, showing no movement; in October, the ETF had a cumulative net outflow of 68 million, with zero net inflow on the 24th and an outflow of 8.9 million on the 23rd. The on-chain growth hasn't translated into buying pressure for the token because ETF redemptions are continuously draining liquidity at the margin. Technically, there's also a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline near 100; if the daily close breaks below, the next target is 80.
ZEC is at the other extreme. The price is 1,211, with the NU7 upgrade launching on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while the halving schedule remains unchanged. The narrative is solid. But on Hyperliquid, among 84 accounts, the total short position is 216.3 million, while longs are only 136.8 million, meaning only 39% are betting on a rise. The largest short position is already at an unrealized loss of 18.04 million, having added 36.81 million margin in the last 24 hours to hold on, with a liquidation price at 1,112. The current ZEC price isn't driven by buying but by shorts not yet conceding. If 1,112 breaks, that will be the real start of a stampede; if shorts cover first, the rebound will be very violent. $BTC $SOL $ETH Contract fund flows reveal a key signal: short-term positions are being taken over, but swing funds have not yet returned.
🔻$BTC: Short-term inflow, medium-term bearish. Net inflow peaks at $36.0436 million from 5 minutes to 1 hour, but net outflow is $629 million over 24 hours and $8.293 billion over 30 days. Short-term buying is attempting a counterattack, but pressure from large capital withdrawals remains.
$ETH: Rebound has funds, but the trend remains under pressure. Net inflow from 5 to 30 minutes, but turns to a net outflow of $70.2395 million at 1 hour, $856 million net outflow over 24 hours, and $8.737 billion net outflow over 30 days.
$SOL: In four words, continuous bleeding. $95.5074 million net outflow over 24 hours, $2.085 billion net outflow over 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate, but medium to long-term outflows are obvious.
zec: Relatively strong short-term. Net inflow of $10.0513 million in the last hour, $40.115 million over 24 hours, and $193 million over the past week. However, 15-day and 30-day periods still show net outflows.
After rebounding near 80,650 in the early morning, the price was once again suppressed by bears, consecutively closing with bearish candles. The current price of 79,980 is right at the edge of the lower Bollinger Band, even slightly breaking below it. Yesterday's sharp drop was halted, but overall it remains in a weak consolidation recovery.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 Today we're focusing on ETH because its signals are the most contradictory and most easily swayed by emotions.
First, the bearish evidence: In October, the US spot ETH ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.18 billion, with institutional buying visibly weak. The Glamsterdam upgrade, originally scheduled to launch on the testnet today, was postponed due to concerns about gas interactions between EIP-8037 and existing contracts.
Now, the bullish evidence: ETH staking hit a record high of 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 35.9% of total supply, with a net inflow of 1.99 million tokens in Q3, marking six consecutive quarters of growth. A single-day withdrawal of 170,000 ETH from exchanges is the largest net outflow in four months. The circulating supply is visibly shrinking, but the price is being held down near 2,335 by ETF sell orders.
BTC is under pressure today in the 79,500-80,025 range, with the US-Iran conflict and Federal Reserve expectations as macro triggers. If BTC doesn't move, ETH is unlikely to strengthen independently. SOL's ETF saw an outflow of 68 million in October; even with on-chain RWA booming, it doesn't translate to the coin price. ZEC is a different story—the largest short position is floating a loss of 18.04 million but still adding margin; 1,112 is its liquidation price. ZEC's volatility is not driven by fundamentals but by leveraged positions stepping on each other.
My view: ETH's 2,300-2,330 range is a psychological bottom line; holding it on the daily close means a "wrongful kill," breaking below it signals a "trend." $BTC $ZEC $ETH On Monday Asian early trading, $ETH touched around 2300 again: current price about 2306, 24h approximately −2.5%, high/low about 2371/2300, weekend rebound basically retraced. Fear and greed index around 50. ETF net inflow on Friday about 4.4 million, previously on 10/22 about outflow of 110 million (Farside), no new prints over the weekend. Staking is firmer—entry queue about 1.27 million ETH (about 22.5 days), exit only about 3500 tokens, total network staking about 44.1 million, approximately 36%. The main events this week are the 10/27–28 rate decision and the 29th PCE; do you think 2283–2300 is a bottoming accumulation zone or a false support before the rate decision? Feedback welcome.
$ETH
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH Oil prices and gold "diverge"? 🤔
Recently, the market has seen a rare divergence: $CL continues to strengthen, Brent crude oil has risen above $115, hitting a more than five-month high 📈; meanwhile, $XAU has fallen instead of rising, dropping to a three-month low 📉. The traditional "safe-haven gold buying" seems to be temporarily failing.
The key variable remains the Federal Reserve 🏦. Rising oil prices have heightened inflation concerns, and the market worries that monetary policy will be hard to ease, even betting again on rate hikes. Rising interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar are putting pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. Although geopolitical risks exist, safe-haven demand may not be enough to offset the pressure from interest rates and the dollar.
The Fed's rate decision is coming next week ⚠️. If December rate hike expectations continue to rise, gold and U.S. stocks may face another round of repricing. Strong oil and weak gold essentially mean the market is trading "inflation—interest rates" rather than pure safe-haven demand. 📊#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The high growth of traditional stock/crypto trading is hard to sustain; however, whether the overall trading business can continue depends on whether new engines like prediction markets, options, derivatives, and internationalization can compensate for the decline in crypto, representing a "structural differentiation, high volatility, not linear perpetual growth".
Transaction-based revenue rose 44% year-over-year to $776 million, but the internal structure has completely reversed:
- ✅ Event contracts (prediction markets): $156 million, over 10 times year-over-year, already surpassing crypto trading revenue, currently the strongest growth driver;
- ✅ Options: $342 million, +29%; stock trading: $129 million, +95%;
- ❌ Crypto trading: $100 million, down 38% year-over-year, continuing to drag down.The long-short ratio has tragically dropped to 8%, yet the whales are secretly transferring coins to dump the market! Is the $HYPE rebound a "death spell"?
Direction: Short (short on the rebound)
Entry range: 77.50–78.50
Take profit target: 74.50–73.00
Highlights/Basis:
Whales have aggressively deposited 37.83 million to Coinbase, signaling a prelude to dumping. Flow Score is -98, with a 436 million loss over 15 days; the bulls simply can't hold. At this time, the long-short ratio has tragically dropped to 8%, shorts are crowded; don't blindly chase shorts, wait for the rebound to the resistance zone above 77.5 for a precise strike. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC: Go long!
Strategy:
Wait for the price to pull back to 80500–80700 (EMA5/10/20 dense support zone) and stabilize before entering long. The target is first set at 81500–82000, a dense short liquidation zone, with a stop loss below 79800.
Core basis:
1. Extreme short crowding: short positions total 2.45 billion U, 3.5 times the 700 million U held by longs; the average short price is 76367, current price 80900 is deeply trapped with unrealized losses exceeding 138 million U. Once it breaks upward, it is likely to trigger a short squeeze.
2. Technical deep V pattern: on the 1-hour chart, after a wick down to 79168 for shakeout, price quickly recovered and stands above EMA5/10/20, preliminarily establishing a short-term bullish structure.
3. Favorable risk-reward ratio: 79800 below is a strong defensive bottom, above is a dense short stop-loss area, providing ample space for a short squeeze, with a superior risk-reward ratio.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Damn, after looking at the revenue data from 15 launchpads, it's simply heartbreaking!
In the past month, 10 of them have dropped more than 75%! This business has basically turned from a money printer into a money shredder.
Comparing the average daily revenue in September to the most recent 7 days, StonkFun plummeted 85%, $PONS plummeted 92%, BONK.fun plummeted 85%, o1 Launchpad plummeted 93%, and Ansem is almost down to zero.
Only $PUMP bucked the trend with a 34% increase, earning over $10.33 million in revenue in the last 7 days. The market has already started to seek safety in advance, with BTC and ETH falling simultaneously, and the hourly chart showing consecutive large bearish candles. Everyone is waiting for the FOMC decision; although the market expects no rate hike, the biggest fear is a hawkish speech from Powell.
Interest rate expectations are the core factor affecting crypto prices. Pausing rate hikes does not mean an immediate rate cut; as long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the crypto market will struggle to see a strong rebound. The current market weakness is obvious, with ETH showing greater downside elasticity.
Volatility in news this week will increase, so leverage in contracts must be strictly controlled. Do not try to bottom-pick; patiently wait for the meeting outcome, observe the direction chosen by capital, and then consider entering the market.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 No matter how high the TVL is, how much does it really relate to your token?
Public blockchains boast about their ecosystems and compete on TVL every day, yet their token prices crash hard. Why? Because there is an insurmountable wall between the prosperity on-chain and the pockets of token holders.
$NEAR shines under the halo of AI and chain abstraction, but the numbers reveal the truth: in the past 30 days, about $13 million worth of NEAR was newly issued, while the buyback scale was only about $1.9 million, meaning inflation is more than six times the buyback. Moreover, the bought-back tokens are just placed into a "permanent capital instrument" and not burned; their future fate is unknown, so the so-called "deflationary closed loop" is currently just an empty promise.
$OP once designed income buybacks, but with the exit of core chains like Base, monthly buybacks plummeted by 87%, and the foundation publicly stated it will no longer commit to buybacks after 12 months. Buying it essentially means paying for the grand narrative of L2 rather than real cash flow.
$SKY, on the other hand, is a giant that lives off real assets. Although the burn ratio is restrained (strictly limited to 5% of monthly net surplus for permanent burns), the mechanism is completely transparent: the second burn directly destroyed 7.37 million tokens with real money. Its foundation is solid interest spread cash flow, not an ecosystem PPT hanging in the air.
Conclusion:
If a chain’s transactions are active but profits are not used to buy back and burn tokens, what you’re buying is just a governance certificate lacking cash flow support. No matter how high the TVL is, it’s just self-indulgence by the project team.All three markets moved together this weekend, but in different directions.
First, let's clarify the news: Israel's election is on October 27, the US midterm elections on November 3, and foreign media have revealed that the US and Israel have put a new round of plans to strike Iran on the table, targeting nuclear facilities, energy facilities, and missile stockpiles. Trump hasn't signed off yet; the White House says no action before the election, but the market isn't waiting for the signature.
Oil reacted first. On Friday, Brent closed at $116.72 per barrel, up 3.14%, WTI closed at $103.27, up 3.80%. Over the weekend, WTI contracts traded around $103.67, Brent at $111.73, with a combined 24-hour volume of $182 million—someone really held positions over the weekend.
Gold, on the other hand, weakened, at $3979.6 per ounce, down 0.48% from Friday's $3998.9, back below $4000. The safe-haven asset not rising is a signal more worth watching than oil prices.
BTC is the most direct: Hyperliquid native perpetual fell to $79,333, down 2.55% from Friday's $81,407, with the weekend range between $79,184 and $81,502, now hovering near the lower bound. Losing $80,000 means the next support around $78,000 is basically a vacuum.
My judgment: This isn't just about the crypto world itself; oil prices and the election calendar are setting the pricing. If oil doesn't come down, inflation expectations won't be suppressed, rate cuts will be delayed, and risk assets will take the hit first. Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; watch two things: whether Trump approves the plan, and whether WTI holds $100. Without resolution, any rebound can only be considered a correction.The most unusual thing over the weekend wasn't BTC falling below 80,000, but gold dropping along with it.
There should be trouble in the Middle East, and money should logically flow into gold. Instead, gold is at $3,979.6 per ounce, down 0.48% from Friday, failing to hold the 4,000 mark. The real gain was in oil, with Brent at 116.72 and WTI at 103.27, rising more than 3 points in one day.
So the market is not trading on risk aversion, but on inflation. With oil prices high, interest rate cuts will be delayed, and high-valuation assets are all taking a hit. BTC dropped 2.55% to 79,333, at the tail end of this chain. Watch the 100 mark on WTI.#HOODQ3TradingGrowth
$HOOD heads into Q3 earnings with record trading volumes
Robinhood reports Q3 tomorrow, and the monthly data already shows a record trading quarter.
Options come to about 851M contracts quarter-to-date, and that only counts September through the 24th. July had 324 million contracts, up 66% year-over-year, and August had 292.5M. September added approximately 234 million through the 24th. The previous high was Q2's record 774 million. $BTC family, did you see that sharp 15-minute plunge of BTC early this morning? It dropped straight down to 79,500. The trigger was Trump's statement "fastest strike on Iran again by Sunday," pushing oil prices up along with inflation expectations, and risk assets were collectively suppressed. And it’s not over yet; the Fed's rate decision on October 28 is the day after tomorrow, and the cooling of rate cut expectations is itself a looming threat.
BTC right now isn’t about watching price rises or falls, it’s about seeing who breaks first. Around 79,673 is the lowest closing area since September 18, and the 80,000 round number has been pierced repeatedly, showing it’s not a solid bottom but the blade of a meat grinder. Wintermute’s mid-term framework is very clear: 75,000 is the key support, 87,000 is the threshold bulls must take. Between these two points, any heavy position is a gamble with your life.
$ETH ETH is stuck around 2,335-2,376 today. The ETF cumulative outflow in October of 1.18 billion is real selling pressure, but the staking amount hit a record 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 35.9% of supply. ETFs that can sell are selling, staked tokens that can’t sell are locked up; this is divergence, not a one-sided move.
$SOL SOL is hovering near 106. The October ETF cumulative net outflow is 68 million, but the on-chain RWA base jumped from 700 million to 4.3 billion, unchanged. The problem is price doesn’t recognize fundamentals, only marginal buying. ETFs are withdrawing, so who will take over?
ZEC is actually the liveliest, with price holding up at 1,211.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ There is a chance of a slight beat on expectations, but the difficulty is clearly greater than in previous quarters; market expectations are already very high, while LTA long-term contract price locks and the strengthening of the Korean won are the biggest drags. Do not have high hopes for a "significant beat." Most likely, the results will be strong, but an "outperformance" is a cautious low-probability event; the most likely scenario is that the results will be close to consensus, and the final outcome depends on management's guidance for Q4 and next year's HBM.As Middle East supply risks heat up, it's easy for everyone to interpret all crude oil prices as moving in the same direction. But futures rise, oil-producing countries adjust their quotes, and refinery procurement costs change—there are several layers of accounting in between.
A detail worth noting in Saudi Arabia's November quote released earlier: Arab Light crude oil for Asia is priced at a discount relative to the regional benchmark. Note, this is a discount relative to the benchmark and cannot be directly translated as "oil is cheaper for Asian buyers." If the benchmark itself rises, combined with changes in freight, insurance, and so on, the final landed cost may still increase.
This is also why I am increasingly impatient with the saying "when oil prices rise, all energy-related assets benefit." The same barrel of oil involves completely different ledgers for producers, transporters, refineries, and end consumers.
To judge how long this strong momentum can last, besides geopolitical news, we also need to see if spot prices in different regions have caught up and whether refineries are willing to continue purchasing at this cost.
Futures can trade on worries first, but real buyers ultimately have to calculate profits. I acknowledge there are reasons for price increases; however, I cannot treat every piece of tense news as a basis for continued buying. Especially when headlines become increasingly alarming, it's even more important to carefully calculate those actual costs.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Looking at BTC spot ETFs, I want to first separate a concept that is often confused: a decrease in fund size and net capital outflow cannot be equated directly.
If the BTC price held by the fund drops, even without investors redeeming, the asset size measured in USD will shrink. Conversely, when BTC rises, it can push the fund size up, even if the new capital inflow is not as much as imagined. Attributing all asset size changes to institutional buying and selling can easily lead to a conclusion that sounds grand but is fundamentally shaky.
Recently, capital inflows and outflows have been volatile, and sentiment is already sensitive. Shouting retreat when seeing a size decline, and shouting to buy when seeing a size rebound, will only make oneself toss back and forth with the numbers.
I prefer to look at subscriptions and redemptions, fund coin holdings changes, and coin price together. At least distinguish whether money has actually left or the original assets have just become cheaper.
To judge whether the buying can stabilize, we must return to this question: when prices fall, is new capital continuing to come in; when prices rebound, is this capital quickly exiting.
I still have expectations for BTC, but expectations cannot be supported by statistical definitions alone. If you can't even distinguish between "losing market value" and "capital withdrawal," no matter how passionately you write the subsequent bullish or bearish analysis, you might have gotten it wrong from the very first step.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's market situation worries me most about one scenario: everyone stays up late waiting for the Federal Reserve, and when the result finally comes out, they feel relieved, but the next day's data drags the market back down.
According to the published schedule, after the October rate meeting concludes, the U.S. will also release GDP and personal income and expenditure data, including the PCE inflation indicator. The rate decision comes first, and the data that influences the next policy judgment arrives afterward. This means the market's first-round reaction to the statement will likely face a second round of testing.
If the decision eases the market, but the subsequent inflation data is strong, the risk assets that just rose may come under pressure again. Conversely, if the press conference is cautious and the following data cools down, it may revise the initial pessimistic judgment.
Therefore, I won't rush to draw conclusions from the first big bullish candle after the rate decision. Rather than guessing the direction in those few minutes, I care more about whether the price can hold after all the news is fully digested.
There have been variables for several consecutive nights, and ironically, the first night is the easiest to get carried away. BTC trading has no closing bell, but human judgment gets fatigued. Treating a two-day test as a multiple-choice question with an answer revealed at once is a costly mistake.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend, triggered by the US withdrawing personnel from the Middle East?
But before the drop, the signals were already clear👇
📉 ETF net outflows for two consecutive days totaled $773 million
📉 Coinbase premium has been negative for 31 consecutive days, US buying demand remains weak
📉 Long leverage piled up too high, a single crash caused liquidation of over $800 million in 24 hours
📉 Fed meeting on Wednesday, big funds reduced positions early to hedge risks
The withdrawal is just a matchstick; the firewood was already stacked.
The market always falls first, then looks for reasons.$MINIMAX
I don't see MINIMAX's kind of drop as an opportunity.
It dropped 10.8% in 1 hour, OKX perpetual is now at 20.79, down 12% in 24 hours, with a low of 20.59. It fell all the way down from 50 last month, already back to the low range of July.
The reason for the drop is not mysterious. The AI model price war is suppressing the valuation, MiniMax in the Hong Kong stock market is moving along with it, and this contract equals 1 share with 20x leverage, so the Hong Kong stock gap downs are fully absorbed. This coin has no spot market; the price is entirely set by the perpetual contract itself, with only a few million USD traded in 24 hours, making the liquidity very thin.
There is a lot of discussion on Orbit, with both bulls and bears. My view is simple: the pricing anchor is the coins held by others, so I have no say in the rise or fall. I don't take this kind of knife.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
Michael Saylor didn’t post a BTC Tracker this weekend.
For the past half year, he almost every weekend showed increased holdings, but this time there was no movement at all. Some speculate MicroStrategy has stopped buying; the company hasn’t responded.
At the same time, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. U.S. buyers have been unwilling to pay a premium for a month.
BTC is now around 79,600, OKX’s 24-hour low is 79,390, truly breaking below 80,000. I saw the morning news saying it stalled at 80,000, but after the market pulled, I realized it had already dropped.
Market dominance is actually rising. According to CoinGecko’s metrics, it’s nearly 60%, and the news says 57% is a new high since November 2022. Different algorithms vary slightly, but the direction is consistent: money hasn’t left, it’s all concentrated in BTC.
My judgment is that a slow decline on low volume is harder to endure than a sharp drop on high volume. It neither falls nor rises, wearing down patience. My position is light, so I’m just holding out.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC stuck at 80,000: Is the double bottom an illusion or the calm before the storm?
Watching BTC's market today, the more I look, the more "disgusted" I feel. It jumps up and down, liquidity is drying up, and both bulls and bears are getting hit.
1. What does the heatmap say?
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there are liquidation chips around 80,000, but the liquidation resistance above at 82,000-84,000 is equally heavy. This means: pulling up will face selling pressure from short liquidations; falling down leads to a liquidity vacuum below, possibly a free fall. The main players are currently exploding leverage on both long and short sides within this narrow range.
2. Technicals: Double bottom? Don't rush to conclusions
On the 4-hour chart, there seems to be a double bottom shape near 79,340. But looking at the moving averages: EMA9, EMA21, and EMA55 are all above the price, maintaining a bearish alignment. Without a volume breakout above the 82,000 neckline, the double bottom is just paper-thin.
3. Why is the rebound so weak? Some objective points:
1. Geopolitical conflicts + high oil prices: Tensions between the US and Iran keep oil prices high, reigniting inflation expectations and suppressing risk assets.
2. Cooling rate cut expectations: Oil-driven inflation reduces Fed rate cut expectations, raising funding costs and decreasing BTC's appeal.
3. ETF funds are still flowing out: In October, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $314 million, with insufficient institutional buying.
4. Whales are accumulating, but spot demand is weak: On-chain data shows large holders buying dips, but exchange balances are rising, indicating ongoing spot selling pressure.
4. My plan:
No guessing the direction. Let the market decide.
· If the rebound stalls at 80,500-81,000 → short with stop loss at 81,500.
· If volume breaks below 79,300 and then rebounds → follow the trend short, target 75,000.
· If volume breaks above 82,000 → double bottom confirmed, consider going long.
The most important thing now is not making money, but not letting this volatile market erode your principal.
Do you think BTC's double bottom can hold? Is the 75,000 liquidation zone already beckoning? Feel free to discuss in the comments!
$BTC $ETH Waiting before FOMC, bearish structure unchanged
BTC near 80,000, ETH near 2,330. After hitting a five-week low over the weekend, BTC barely recovered to 80,000. The fear and greed index is 45, indicating a cold sentiment.
Market and leverage: The technical bearish structure dominates, moving averages are downward, and rebounds are weak. Over 70% of long positions across the network were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Note: BTC's concentrated net long cost zone is at 81,993, with about 64% of longs currently at a floating loss. Continued decline could easily trigger a chain of liquidations, causing cascading selling pressure.
Capital flow: Although BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of 301 million this week ending the continuous outflow, 770 million was withdrawn on Thursday and Friday, returning October's cumulative flow to negative. Institutions proactively reduced exposure ahead of the FOMC. ETH ETFs remain bleak, with nearly 1.18 billion outflow in October, and the funding gap remains wide.
Macro: There is a 92% probability the FOMC will hold rates steady, but over 80% expectation of a rate hike in December. High oil prices continue to suppress risk assets.
Key levels:
BTC support at 79,170 is critical; resistance at 80,500-81,000.
ETH support at 2,280; resistance at 2,380.
In short: Long positions are crowded and cost-locked, ETFs withdrew funds at the close, and breakthroughs before the FOMC are unlikely. Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish. Wait for BTC to stabilize at 79,170 or break above 81,000 with volume before lightly trying longs. Position control is paramount before the decision.I don't think $BTC has confirmed a bottom yet, but the $80,000 level is becoming a key battleground for short-term bulls and bears 🧭. Currently, $BTC is around $80,500, and $ETH is about $2,350; Ethereum is relatively weak, reflecting that risk appetite among funds has not fully recovered, and the consensus to go long is still fragile 📉.
Next, I tend to expect consolidation: if the $80,000 level holds steady and effectively breaks through $82,000, the next resistance to watch is $84,000; if it falls below $78,600, beware of a second dip ⚠️.
Regarding ETFs, although the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, the entire week still recorded about $300 million in net inflows, indicating short-term capital divergence but not a reversal of the medium- to long-term allocation logic 📊.
Therefore, I am not chasing the rally nor rushing to be bearish; the key is to observe the $80,000 level closely 👀. Do you think $BTC will break above $82,000 first or fall below $80,000 first? 🤔
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC is now at 80074, down 0.78% in 24 hours, with the total market cap down 4.24% in the same period. BTC dominance is 59.98%, just one step away from 60%. The external environment over the weekend is forcing risk reduction: gold prices fell below $4000, the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran is rising, and the Brazil stock ETF listed in Tokyo was halted due to heavy sell orders. The same situation is visible in perpetual contracts, with EWZ funding rate at -1.48%, the most negative in the market, indicating shorts are hedging Brazilian assets with contracts. In the crypto space, major coins barely moved, the bleeding is in altcoins: $Q down 25.93%, $COMP down 11.17%, turnover rates at 18% and 17%. Against the trend, $CAP rose 38.48%, turnover 46%, funding rate +0.07%, driven by paid leveraged longs. In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance will stand above 60%, with altcoins continuing to underperform. The watershed is BTC at 80000; if it holds, the decline will be limited to altcoins, but if it breaks, risk-off selling will hit BTC as well, causing the total market cap to fall faster.## October FOMC Rate Decision to Be Announced This Week
European Central Bank October 29 Rate Decision Market-Implied Probabilities (Latest ECB-Watch Pricing)
Current Deposit Rate: 2.50%
1. Hold rates steady: 96% Baseline scenario
2. Raise rates by 25bp to 2.75%: 4%
3. Cut rates: almost 0, market prices no chance of a rate cut
I. Core Logic
Why a hold is highly likely in October
1. A 25bp hike was just completed in September; ECB’s policy framework is to assess at each meeting without preset paths, preferring to observe data over one meeting interval rather than consecutive hikes
2. Long-term bond yields have already risen, passively tightening financial conditions, partially substituting for ECB rate hikes; Lagarde has mentioned this multiple times
3. Reuters economist survey: 70 out of 73 economists expect rates to remain unchanged in October; market focus is on a December hike, not this month
Market pricing for December meeting: ~73% probability of a 25bp hike, which is the main battleground for this round of trading
II. Risks of Unexpected Surprises (Low-Probability Black Swan Events)
ECB would only hike rates directly in October if the following combination occurs:
- Energy prices surge again
- Core inflation rebounds beyond expectations
- Wage data rises sharply, showing signs of a wage-price spiral $CL $XAU 【US Buy Orders Haven't Picked Up for 33 Consecutive Days, How Can BTC Still Rebound?】
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. This indicates that $BTC on Coinbase is trading at a discount relative to the global market, and the US market buy orders remain weak. Don't interpret this as a net outflow of US funds for 33 straight days, but the fact it hasn't turned positive for so long is indeed not a good sign.
Looking at ETFs, on October 19 and 21, there were net inflows of $526.7 million and $524.8 million respectively, but on the 22nd, there was a single-day net outflow of $635.6 million. Over four trading days, the total net inflow is still about $439.1 million, indicating institutional funds are not completely withdrawing; the problem lies in the poor sustainability of buy orders.
What needs the most caution now is that the price rebound is running ahead of US spot demand. The premium remaining negative means the rebound still lacks strong buy order confirmation; however, this indicator alone cannot determine that the market will immediately fall.
Next, watch two things: whether the premium can sustain turning positive, and whether ETFs can have continuous net inflows. If both improve simultaneously, the rebound will have more confidence; if the price rises but the premium continues to stay underwater, be cautious that the bulls might be prematurely celebrating for the market again.This market is really frustrating. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $525M, including $443M in long positions. This morning, $BTC officially broke below 80,000. What worries Ajian is that this figure was the only psychological integer support price in this round of decline. Once broken, the only technical support below is the long liquidation level at $76,764 and the 200-day moving average at $72,945. The area between these two levels is the last technical buffer zone for this downturn. Moreover, with the current inflow ratio between retail investors and whales being too high, it is not recommended to add positions or short now, because retail investors lack the capacity to average down, and blindly entering the market can easily turn them into marginal buyers, defeated by a lower cost basis. Otherwise, why do you think I said yesterday not to blindly follow Arthur Hayes' big bearish positions? This kind of behavior—selling off and immediately calling for a short—is meant to create liquidity narratives, using bearish sentiment to allow his remaining positions (if any) to be covered at lower levels. This is how industry rules work, just so you know. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Buying Bitcoin is for hedging risk.
Buying gold is also for hedging risk.
But in 2026, both ended up at the bottom, surprising?
Among 21 asset classes:
BTC -7.3%, gold -7.5%.
This is the first time since 2011 that they both tied at the bottom.
What about others?
Commodity basket +52.5%.
Even the most boring short-term government bonds gained +2.9%.
The most boring all won.
Why were Bitcoin and gold dumped?
Because they don’t pay interest.
Oil prices touched $116, inflation is rising.
The market bets on a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike.
When interest rates rise, those that don’t pay interest are definitely sold first.
Gold was still at 5400 at the start of the year, dropped to 3995 on Friday.
The momentum of last year’s 63.7% gain is gone.
BTC fell 35% from the peak of 126,000, losing for the second consecutive year.
But we have to look long term:
Since 2011, BTC’s average annual return is +120.6%, the highest on the chart.
My attitude:
Bottoming out is not scary, what’s scary is the reason.
This round, it’s interest rates killing it, not the story collapsing.
The Fed will speak first on Wednesday, and there are two months left this year to change rankings.
Don’t sell when it hurts the most.
If long term, it’s not the time to sell BTC,
and likewise, not the time to buy BTC either.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The main driver of Q3 profit growth is not HBM4; HBM4's contribution to Q3 profits is limitedThe chain was hacked and halted, yet INIT actually touched a near one-year high of 0.1680. I’m not chasing this rise.
Here’s what happened: On 10/23 (UTC), the attacker exploited the Initia MoveVM vulnerability to create accounting entries out of thin air and transferred about 2.7 million USD, causing L1 and rollup to halt immediately.
$INIT initially probed 0.1134 that day, closed at 0.1503, with volume about 5.8 times the 50-day average; on 10/25 it peaked at 0.1680, roughly 29% higher than before the incident.
The official statement says native INIT was not inflated; however, Bitquery statistics show that the USDC reserves backing the chain once dropped to only 63 USD.
The official update on 10/24 did not provide a restart time nor mention who would cover the losses.
My view: The market only priced in the "INIT was not inflated" part, but did not price in "the chain has not restarted, and there is no compensation plan."
From the low of 0.0474 on 7/29, it has already risen 3.5 times, which seems more driven by sentiment.
What I’m doing: Observing without chasing, not catching a falling knife.
If the official announcement confirms restart plus compensation, and the daily chart holds above 0.1680, my judgment fails; if it falls below 0.1301 (the low on 10/24), then watch 0.1134, the incident low.
Honestly: The chain stopped but the coin rose—is this smart money bottom-fishing the incident, or someone pumping amid panic to dump?
$INIT $APT $SUI
#Railway安全事件波及多链资产安全 The stablecoin airdrop from standx has already been distributed. Looking at the airdrop amounts from several influencers, it’s not even enough for a meal of pork knuckles. If you only manage your finances within standx, that’s still okay—you can make a little bit of money.
But if you actually traded on standx, doing contracts and losing on fees, slippage, and funding rates, the current amount of stablecoins from the airdrop can’t cover your losses. It’s like trying to scalp profits but ending up getting scalped yourself.
I remember after last year’s airdrop from aster, there was a continuous surge, creating a strong wealth effect. At that time, I was traveling out of town. Following that was the wave of perpdex, with all kinds of contract DEXs flooding the market. The founder of standx was the head of contracts at a major exchange, highly praised by the market.
Back then, I had already formed this understanding: avoid crowded places, whether for scalping or buying coins, only play the leaders. Clearly, the leader of perpdex was hyperliquid, while standx was overcrowded with all kinds of hype on X, so I didn’t bother to scalp there.
Looking at it now, my judgment was correct. You still have to stick to avoiding crowded places, and avoid congested trading or scalping. Even during the L2 scalping bonus period from 2023 to 2024, fewer people scalped strk, and the final single account earned over $1,000. But many more scalped zk, with single accounts earning less than $500 and many even getting scalped themselves. This also illustrates the principle.Bitcoin has been consolidating around 80,000, with volume shrinking to half the usual level, and no one dares to make a move across the board. I've seen this kind of market many times — it's not bulls and bears fighting, but everyone waiting for something to fall into someone else's hands.
This Thursday, the US Q3 GDP and September PCE will be released together. Those who want to watch don’t need to focus on the candlesticks tonight, but on the first volume spike after the data. If the data is good, the rate cut expectations will be pushed further back, so don’t rush around the 80,000 level; if the data is bad, there might be a chance. Few who bet on the data ever get good results. From what I've seen over the years, the more people try to predict direction in advance, the more they get hit from both sides. $BTC The focus for the next week is still on the Nasdaq's movement. Whether the Nasdaq can stop falling here; if it effectively breaks below 258000, it means Bitcoin at 80,000 will also be lost. The next defense lines are 78,000 and 75,000. When will the Nasdaq stop falling, and when will Bitcoin bottom out?
I hope it will drop to give us a chance to pick up cheap chips and lower the average cost of building positions. So next, I will continue to buy in batches at these two levels, striving to accumulate enough chips to be fully invested!In the futures market, round number levels often act like a threshold; crossing them intraday doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed. I have an old habit when reading such news: first, I look at the day's price change and open interest, then I consider how significant this "breakthrough" really is.
According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public data, $BTC just broke above $80,000, currently at $80,192, but it is still down 0.82% over 24 hours; during the same period, the trading volume was about $1.467 billion, open interest about $3.396 billion, and the funding rate is 0.0011% per hour, roughly 9% annualized.
My judgment is that this news boosts short-term sentiment but is not enough to indicate a strengthening trend. Breaking a round number and still being down for the whole day are not contradictory; different observation windows can lead to different directional interpretations, and just looking at the headline can miss this nuance.
The difference between crypto perpetuals and traditional commodity futures also lies in this ongoing funding cost. A positive funding rate means longs bear the holding cost, and the annualized figure is just a current level extrapolation; without comparing open interest before and after, you can't infer that new longs are entering. I pay more attention to how price and open interest interact afterward, as this is the basis for judging funding sentiment.
From my old-school perspective, I still treat 80,000 as a key observation point. For friends who have transitioned from traditional markets, when you encounter such a breakthrough level but the intraday price is still down, do you first check changes in open interest or the funding rate, and why?The culprit behind the crash has been found! ETH is holding firm at 2300 without breaking the previous low—is this a reversal or a dead cat bounce?
This morning, ETH fell below 2300, mainly due to a cliff-like outflow of ETF funds: since October, spot ETF net outflows have exceeded $1 billion, setting the highest monthly record this year. Coupled with thin buy orders in the order book—the top five sell volumes are 12 times the buy volumes—there is no support for a short-term sell-off. But not breaking the previous low does not mean a reversal—MACD is still below the zero line, and the technical head and shoulders resistance remains. The area around 2300 looks more like a technical breather after an oversell.
Trading strategy
Aggressive players: Light long positions near 2300, aiming for a short-term rebound
Conservative players: Wait for a rebound near 2350 to set up short positions, or short on a volume breakout below 2280
Core logic: The previous low at 2281 is the key defense line; breaking it means accelerated decline, not breaking it leaves the possibility of a double bottom
At 2281, the main force has already defended twice. The third time, would you still trust it?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH Lô tạm thời 22,78 triệu nhưng không hoảng loạn, vị cá mập bán khống này đang đánh cược điều gì? Một cá mập đã tích lũy lợi nhuận 180 triệu USD, trong 24 giờ vừa qua lại kiếm thêm 25,22 triệu USD, hiện đang có ba vị thể bán không với tổng lỗ tạm thời 22,78 triệu USD: BTC lỗ 12,06 triệu, ETH lỗ 4,76 triệu, SOL lỗ 5,95 triệu. Bề ngoài có vẻ bất lợi, nhưng nhìn kỹ vị thế mới thấy sự tự tin. BTC bán khống 2.637 đồng, danh nghĩa 210 triệu USD, đòn bẩy 5 lần, giá trung bình 76.327; ETH bán khống 106.40The U.S. IRS is about to open a cheap door for crypto tax back payments. The news says fines will be reduced, a 120-day processing window is given, and if funds are insufficient, installment payments are allowed. The whole arrangement aims to be implemented before December.
The significance of this matter lies in the fact that the cost of back reporting in the past was outrageously high. Many people didn’t report not because they didn’t want to, but because they were afraid to. Reporting meant paying fines plus interest, giving up all the floating profits over several years and still not enough. So they simply played dead, locking their coins in cold wallets as if nothing had happened.
Now it’s like the authorities have extended a step down. If you come forward voluntarily, the penalties are lighter and you can pay in installments. For those who casually bought during the 2017 bull market and later forgot to sell, this is probably the lowest-cost chance to get out.
But don’t read this as good news. The fact that taxes can be collected means this portion of holdings is recognized on the books, and it also means regulatory reach has extended to personal wallets. The ones who should really be worried are those who maintain profits by not reporting taxes; once the rules are clear, their hidden advantage disappears.
My advice is not to rush. Export your exchange transaction history, calculate your cost basis and sale times clearly, then decide whether to go for voluntary disclosure or ordinary back reporting—the fines differ greatly between the two. There’s also an easily overlooked point: installments require interest payments, so don’t just look at how much the fines have been reduced. 120 days sounds long, but just reconciling accounts can take up half that time, so don’t waste time hesitating.