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🚨 Is the $ETH rebound a false breakout or the last shakeout before a new round of rally? $2342 is extremely critical next!
Brothers, in this ETH market cycle, what I pay more attention to is not the rise or fall of a single candlestick, but whether the entire weekly structure has changed.
📈 From 1505 to 2810, where exactly is this market cycle now?
Previously, when ETH stopped falling near $1505, I began to focus on weekly-level bullish opportunities. Then the price rebounded all the way up, reaching a high near $2566, at which time I judged that the bullish momentum still had room to continue.
But as the market pushed higher, the area around $2810 became an important resistance zone. The price failed to break through effectively, and I began to lean toward the view that the first stage of the rally might have ended and the market entered a correction phase.
⚠️ Why do I think the pullback starting near $2807 is a correction rather than necessarily a trend reversal?
The key lies in the market structure.
If it were a complete trend reversal, we would usually need to see more obvious structural breakdowns, sustained selling pressure, and key support levels being broken. A single resistance or a brief decline is not enough to confirm a complete long-term trend change.
However, the absence of a crash-like drop does not necessarily mean the market is only correcting; the subsequent price performance still needs to be observed.
📉 Next, focus closely on $2342!
The rebound that started from $2318 previously saw ETH briefly break above $2500 but then quickly fell back. This indicates that selling pressure above is still worth watching, and we cannot easily conclude a new round of#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is just around the corner. On the surface, the market generally still bets that rates will remain unchanged in October, but a closer look at the underlying data reveals hidden currents beneath the surface.
The latest preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI hit 57.6, with the Manufacturing PMI soaring to 56.0, marking a 53-month high. Even more striking, the increase in corporate selling prices reached the fastest pace since August 2022. What do these numbers together indicate? They show that the U.S. economy is not in recession but rather heating up, and the inflation monster has not been subdued at all.
The comment at the bottom of the chart struck me as very sharp: "Pause is not a dovish pivot; 92.8% pricing hides a December rate hike blade, the real signal is in the wording."
Current market expectations are overly confident, treating a pause in October as a done deal. This is actually very dangerous. If the Fed truly announces no change, that would be the fulfillment of expectations and could easily trigger a "good news is bad news" sell-off. The core crisis now is not whether rates will rise in October, but how tough Powell and Waller will be in their upcoming statements. As long as they leave a slight opening in the statement, hinting that action may still be needed in December, the high-rate sword will continue to hang over risk assets.
$BTC 期望值猎手｜今日期望值 2026年10月25日 周末的盘面，比工作日更诚实。 周六，BTC一度跌到79,146美元，一个多月新低。8.1亿美元的仓位在流动性最薄的时候被清算，其中多单6.89亿。然后，它又安静地爬回了80,800。 如果你周六早上醒来，看到79,000那个数字，心跳快了一拍，然后发现它又回来了，那种感觉，不是害怕，是疲惫。不是第一次了，也不会是最后一次。 今天不聊方向。聊三件正在同时发生的事。 第一件：区间在收紧，像一根被压紧的弹簧。 CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr.今天发了一个数字：过去30天，BTC最高价和最低价的价差，从13%收窄到了6%。价格已经连续9天被锁在80,000到86,000之间。 6%的波动率。上一次看到这种水平，是什么时候，很多人已经记不清了。 Adler的结论很克制，但很直接：波动区间的收窄，通常会以一波爆发性的行情告终。 上方关键位86,000，下方是365日均线。 弹簧压得越紧，松开的时候越不知道会弹向哪边。但有一件事是确定的：它不会一直压着。 第二件：ETF在走，巨鲸在接，#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? I think it can, but essentially this is a hype gamble.
Looking at Q2 data, trading revenue rose 44%, but the structure completely changed. Crypto revenue dropped to $100 million, down 38% year-over-year; meanwhile, the prediction market (event contracts) surged 10 times, reaching $156 million.
What is Robinhood relying on now? On on-chain memecoins (like PONS) and prediction events (Federal Reserve, gold). But this kind of income purely depends on hype, and once the hype fades, performance drops. Analysts expect crypto revenue to fall nearly 50% more in Q3.
Keep an eye on these related tickers:
HOOD: Q3 earnings report on October 27, market expects volatility around 10%.
PONS: The thermometer of Robinhood's on-chain hype; only when it heats up does on-chain fee revenue increase.
COIN / MSTR: Barometers of crypto sentiment; if they fall, HOOD's crypto revenue can't escape the impact.
In short, HOOD is transitioning from a crypto brokerage to a prediction market. But the new story feeds on hype, not stickiness. If both sides slow down in Q3, this question becomes hard to answer. Many people believe gold is a "forever rising" faith, but the peak in 1980 trapped investors for a full 27 years before they could break even—half a lifetime, friends. $XAU $XAUT
Don't treat gold as a "sure-win, no-loss" talisman; when it falls, it punishes all kinds of disbelief. In history, during several deep corrections, many people lost their savings down to their last penny:
- 1974–1976: Countries sold off to suppress prices, a 44% drop in two years, nearly halving the price.
- 1980–1985: Economic recovery and easing geopolitical tensions caused a 66% drop over five years.
- 1987–1999: Interest rate hikes plus the rise of the internet led to a 50% halving over 12 years.
- 2011–2015: Crisis subsided and economy recovered, a 46% decline over four years.
Now international gold prices have fallen below $4000 per ounce, and domestic spot prices at 856.88 yuan per gram are still slowly declining. How much do you think this round will ultimately correct?
Don't go all in trying to bottom-fish; buying in batches is the right approach. Don't just fixate on whether interest rates will be raised or not; high interest rate drain is the real killer.
Right now, the whole market is hyped up about the expectation of a pause in rate hikes in October, completely missing the point. The real variable isn't whether rates go up or not, but that the Federal Reserve, using the excuse of PMI surging and inflation not yet dead, is confidently maintaining a high interest rate environment.
Look at manufacturing hitting a 53-month high, corporate selling price increases at the fastest pace in over a year—any hopes of rate cuts are shattered. The economy is so strong and inflation can't be suppressed; why would the Fed turn dovish? People think a pause is a gift, but it's just sharpening the dull knife. As long as the Fed doesn't soften its tone in December, off-exchange incremental funds won't dare to enter the market.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; right now it's a churning meat grinder propped up only by sentiment. ETFs are all pulse-like quick in-and-out trades, with no long-term capital support. The heavy locked-in chips above mean it can't be chewed through without a big flood of liquidity. Don't chase highs now; be bullish long-term but trade short-term pullbacks. If you short-term short, you must firmly set stop-losses—never hold on to losses stubbornly.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, still the most fragile follower. The ecosystem has no new breakout points, and capital is all on the sidelines. When the market softens even slightly, Ethereum falls faster than anyone else. Don't mistake sideways trading for stabilization; rebounds without capital support are all bull traps—never catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold; its hard logic makes it the most stable. High interest rates combined with geopolitical conflicts mean safe-haven funds and central bank buying support it, allowing it to have an independent market. If the economy truly can't hold up, it will be the last refuge.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The hardest part for the Federal Reserve this time is probably explaining: the economy is still so strong, why can they pause rate hikes first?
The FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is approaching, and a pause remains the mainstream expectation. In the latest Reuters survey, 94 out of 100 economists expect rates to remain unchanged, but all respondents anticipate another rate hike in December. This indicates that the pause is more like observing the policy effects, and the end of tightening is still some distance away.
The real variable lies in the economic data. The preliminary US composite PMI for October fell from 58.4 to 57.6, showing a slowdown in growth but still remaining in a strong expansion zone; the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0, hitting a 53-month high. More worrisome is that the increase in corporate selling prices reached the fastest pace since August 2022. The economy can withstand it, and companies can continue to raise prices, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to easily relax vigilance.
My judgment is that this time we need to watch two layers of risk: first, whether inflation pressure will prompt some officials to support an immediate rate hike; second, even if rates remain unchanged, whether the statement and press conference will reinforce expectations of a December rate hike. The latter could also put pressure on the market.
For the crypto community, cheering "no change" as good news can lead to losses. A pause is already widely expected; what truly affects the subsequent market is how resolute the Federal Reserve is about the next rate hike, and how the dollar and US Treasury yields respond. First watch the policy stance, then watch capital flows—this is more meaningful than trying to catch the instant K-line at the announcement moment. $BTC Next week’s super central bank week combined with tech giants’ earnings reports will definitely be the most exciting macro event of the year. How do you plan to position yourself?
▶️ Federal Reserve Decision: The Powell press conference is the real indicator
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with a hold expected, but all eyes are on Powell’s press conference.
Powell has always been hawkish; if he expresses caution about the slowing decline in inflation, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to surge again, putting full discounting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. The Q3 GDP and core PCE data released the same day will directly test whether Powell’s policy rhetoric has fundamental support.
▶️ Tech Giants: AI capital expenditure faces a major test
$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, and $INTC will report earnings intensively.
The market is extremely picky now; simply piling on AI computing power CapEx is no longer enough. Whether Azure and Google Cloud’s actual revenue monetization can align with their massive spending is the key to whether their stock prices can break through.
Additionally, storage giants like SK Hynix and $SNDK are holding consecutive meetings, so the real demand for HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs will be fully revealed.
▶️ Geopolitics and Energy: Oil price premium rises
The Middle East geopolitical situation combined with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly pushed up U.S. oil ETFs $USO and $CLmain. If crude inventories continue to decline, the pattern of high-level oil price oscillation will be difficult to break in the short term.
The core focus this week is whether the market is digesting high valuations or if the positive factors have been fully priced in It seems that these two short positions on $BTC and $ETH were done without much problem. As I expected, the previous sharp drop has already laid the foundation for a phase of adjustment during this period.
The core reason why support turns into resistance is that a dense volume of trades in a certain price area generally means most orders are competing there. When one side is stronger than the other, the price will be driven toward the stronger side.
So the original battleground effectively becomes the rear position for the stronger side. Therefore, my basic judgment is first that the downward pressure is not a simple drop, and second, based on an oversold rebound, I short at resistance levels.
Market sentiment has not recovered yet and remains fearful. At this time, without incremental funds entering, short positions can continue to be held! $BTC
But in the long term, I am bullish. When their price reaches the 120-day moving average, I will naturally go long!
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 💹GOJIPOWER 6 hours ago
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Bitcoin spot at $80,840, essentially flat on the day (-0.05%). The flow data underneath is not flat.
ETFs: -$137.9M (-1,694 BTC), the second straight outflow day, after -$635.6M the day before. But the five-day total is still +$301.2M, with single days above $500M on Oct 19 and Oct 21. This is churn, not a one-way exit.
Reading yesterday alone gets the sign wrong.$BTC
#DailyOrbit The October FOMC meeting is now a countdown event, and the market's rebound is already telling a story about positioning rather than conviction. Expectations for the next three meetings have firmed, yet a pause is not a pivot. The latest PMI data shows an economy with strong resilience, and businesses are raising selling prices at a faster pace, keeping inflation pressure alive. Holding rates steady this time does not mean easing will follow. The post-meeting language matters more than the decis🔥🔥🔥BTC holds the 80,000 level, can this rebound be considered secure?
In the past week, BTC spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $301 million, with significant capital divergence: strong buying concentrated in the first half of the week, followed by accelerated outflows in the second half. The last two trading days recorded a combined net outflow of $774 million, with a single-day withdrawal of $635 million on October 22, marking the largest single-day outflow in nearly four months. The cumulative capital flow for October has turned into a net outflow. ETH spot ETFs experienced a continuous net outflow of $221 million throughout the week, indicating institutional funds have not fully turned bullish.
The current market recovery is essentially a technical rebound after a decline, lacking sustained buying support. The core support lies in the $80,000–$81,000 range, while key resistance levels to watch are BTC at $82,000, $83,000–$84,000, and ETH at $2,400.
Next week’s October FOMC meeting and September PCE data releases are critical variables determining liquidity direction. The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged this time, but expectations for a rate hike in December are heating up, with policy uncertainty continuing to suppress risk asset valuations.
Whether the rebound can continue depends on whether sustained buying follows a breakout above resistance levels. Until macro developments settle and ETF funds return to sustained inflows, the rebound’s foundation is not solid. Blindly chasing highs is not advisable; it’s better to wait and watch for confirmation signals.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Boss Shi holds a million in floating profit short positions stubbornly for half a month, and now he's actually starting to discuss bottom-fishing? His attitude has clearly turned cautious!
The strength of being the top of the 365-day profit leaderboard is evident, with a nearly 30-day win rate of 100%, a maximum drawdown of only 3.23%, total assets exceeding 7.44 million U, and cumulative profits close to 18 million U, mastering both risk control and trend!
Currently, two 10x short positions are fully loaded, with margin accounting for less than 10% of total assets:
✅$BTC short: average entry price 86195.3, current price 80826.7, floating profit 805,300 U, return rate 62.28%, margin 1,212,400 U
✅$XRP short: average entry price 1.5022, current price 1.3105, floating profit 230,100 U, return rate 127.63%, margin 157,300 U
Interpretation:
Both positions were laid out on the left side at the high point in early October, holding through the entire correction wave. Previously, the clear mindset was expecting a large-scale decline, but recently the attitude has changed: he openly discussed "from the drop in October 2025 until now, nearly 13 months, normally the bottom should have arrived," and initiated a discussion on whether to bottom-fish. In the end, the community's long and short opinions were basically split 55/45, which he also acknowledged.
This indicates his expectation for downside space has narrowed, and the short positions will most likely take profits opportunistically rather than holding stubbornly to the end.
But to be honest, he has deep funds and a solid safety cushion, switching between long and short with ease. If you follow him chasing back and forth, you’re likely to get hit from both sides!
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $ETH is oscillating around 2,338, after the price slowly dropped from 2,370, with a daily decline of about 1.4%; yesterday it dipped to a long lower shadow at 2,281, which remains a memorable low point for everyone.
On the NanoTrading Fire chart (4-hour), the volume POC is near 2,408, so the current price is trading below the value area. The liquidation chart shows a large concentration of short positions above: there are two short clusters around 2,420-2,440, each about $3.4 billion; the largest long cluster is near 2,300, about $1.26 billion. Thick sell order zones appear near 2,500 and 2,550, while the strongest buy order zone is below near 2,255.
About 75% of accounts hold long positions (long-short ratio about 3.07), but only about 63% of top traders hold longs, and this proportion is slowly decreasing. The funding rate has risen to about 0.0078%, and the open interest, after falling from $5.5 billion, remains steady at about $5.37 billion. Retail traders are heavily long, yet the price remains below the POC.
My judgment is: as long as $ETH stays below 2,408, I expect it will first sweep out the long positions near 2,300 and may even dip to around 2,255. If the 4-hour close moves back above 2,408, the trend will reverse, and the shorts in the 2,420-2,440 range will quickly be in danger.
Will you buy the pullback at 2,300, or wait for the price to reclaim the POC? Are new BTC buyers really back? This on-chain chart is worth a close look.
Glassnode tracks the proportion of BTC moved in the last 3 months relative to the realized market cap of the entire network. It measures the cost-weighted active coins recently, not the number of new entrants.
the end of past bull markets, this ratio reached about 85% in 2018 and over 70% in 2021. But at the October peak, it was only 37%, then continued to decline, approaching historical bear bottom levels #DailyOrbit The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3rd. The presidential election is not on the ballot; the main contests are for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and governors in 36 states. Currently, the Republican Party holds a slight lead in both chambers, and the Democratic Party needs to gain about 4 net seats to flip control.
The impact on Trump is quite direct: if the Republicans maintain control of Congress, his policy agenda for the next two years will proceed relatively smoothly; if the Democrats take one or both chambers, he will become a lame duck, with legislation and budgets blocked and executive orders facing more constraints.
💫My view:
Midterm elections essentially serve as a performance review for the sitting president. Historically, it is normal for the president’s party to lose seats in midterms. The market cares more about the clarity of the outcome rather than who wins—the volatility increases before the election, but once the result is clear, uncertainty decreases, which often benefits risk assets. For Trump, this election is the most important midterm exam of his second term, and the results will directly affect how much room he has to maneuver in the following two years. $FIL
Decentralized storage has a straightforward proposition: digital information needs reliable places to live. Filecoin's harder task is competing on cost, retrieval performance, reliability, and ease of use against established cloud providers. Storage capacity alone does not prove commercial demand. The more revealing signals are recurring customer usage and economically sustainable storage deals, rather than capacity figures presented without context.反弹这么轻，是洗筹还是下一段下跌前的换气？ $80,000 这道线，今晚到底守不守得住？ 刚盯完这波反弹，第一感觉是节奏不对：价格在动，但量没跟上，更像弱势里的技术性回抽，不是追涨阶段，也不是干脆的洗筹，而是多空都在试探的博弈期。BTC 在 80,722 附近，卡在关键均线下方；ETH 在 2,369 一带偏弱，2,400 到 2,425 是它头顶那道必须消化的压力；SOL 靠近 101.6，超卖是真的，但超卖从来不等于反转，这点我最近提醒自己最多。 我更在意的不是单个币的支撑，而是跨市场联动传过来的信号。宏观不确定性还在压着风险偏好，权益市场那边一旦情绪转弱，crypto 这边很难独立走强，BTC 会先被当成高 beta 的风险资产去定价，ETH 跟跌的弹性通常更大，山寨则更晚反应、但回撤更深。也就是说，今晚这波反弹的"轻"，可能不是没人买，而是愿意在这个位置加风险的人变少了。 偏多的路径也有：如果 BTC 能重新站稳 80K 上方，把均线压力变成支撑，ETH 再去试 2,400 并有效突破，那这波就可能是洗筹后的再定价，风险偏好会从收缩重新扩散，SOL 这类超卖品种会有修复弹性。但A friend asked me about investment directions for the next two years. This topic is huge. From what I can see, I believe the real infrastructure dividend in this cycle is neither in L1 nor in DeFi, but in the settlement layer + issuers + fee collectors, because they earn traffic fees rather than valuation fees. Some recent news can well summarize and support this:
#
First, scale. USDT has a market cap of $182.5B, USDC $71.6B, totaling $254B. For comparison, ETH's market cap is $288B. This means the total stablecoin market is already close to ETH, and no one can deny this is the second dollar issuance system on-chain.
Second, revenue. Pump.fun made $1.98M in daily revenue yesterday, ranking third in protocol income, only behind Tether and Circle. Why does a meme launchpad surpass Hyperliquid? Because it handles issuance and fee collection.
Third, structure. Circle recently launched USDC auctions, allowing institutions to earn fees users pay when redeeming, directly turning liquidity provision into a tradable cash flow, further promoting the financialization of its products.
Fourth, new entrants. Everyone knows South Korea is pushing stablecoin legislation, the parent company of Kraken just got principle approval in Kazakhstan, and Tether used MDK to bring in 15 mining companies for AI mining. The common point of these moves is: none of them require coin price appreciation.
That's all, DYORRegarding the altcoin season, I believe the current positive signals for altcoin season that have appeared are:
1. Sentiment bottom: The market has already given up on the expectation of altcoin season, with no crowded chips pre-positioned.
2. Chip bottom: Many established altcoins have repeatedly dropped, clearing floating chips and deleveraging completely; selling pressure during big drops is very weak.
3. Differentiation characteristics: The decline only hits targets with premiums and floating profits from earlier periods, such as $NEAR, $ZEC, $NEA, which I have mentioned frequently recently. There is no indiscriminate stampede, indicating that liquidity is not fleeing the entire market, but only cashing out previous speculative positions.
4. Capital structure: On-exchange funds are concentrated only in $BTC, not completely leaving the crypto market, leaving the possibility of future rotation overflow.
So what conditions are truly needed to trigger altcoin season?
1. BTC shows signs of capital diversion; in the next rally, BTC funds start to realize profits at high levels and overflow into altcoins.
2. TOTAL2 (total market cap excluding BTC) stabilizes relative to BTC market share and begins to rise steadily.
3. A clear and sustainable main narrative emerges, driving sector effects, such as more altcoin ETFs passing, or narratives like RWA+AI Agent that can bring traditional financial capital onto the chain.
4. Stablecoin supply increases, with new incremental funds entering, not just on-exchange funds circulating among themselves.
When everyone has no hope for altcoin season, it doesn’t necessarily mean altcoin season will come immediately, but it is definitely a good time to consider positioning in quality altcoins. The "risk portfolio" warned by QCP is materializing, but the three cryptocurrencies are being hit in different ways.
The latest QCP report highlights a combination: AI credit stress spreading, Brent crude oil reaching $110, both dragging BTC into safe-haven trading simultaneously. By 5 PM, the consequences of this combination have become apparent.
$BTC is near 80,400, slightly down intraday. On Thursday, ETF outflows reached 636 million, the largest since late June, with IBIT and FBTC as the main drivers. 80,000 is a psychological barrier, and 79,200–79,800 is a more substantial support zone below. ETF funds are reducing risk before events, not out of panic, but through proactive position trimming.
$ETH is near 2,340, with a deeper decline than BTC. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, and the activation of Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet has been delayed again, temporarily disappointing technical expectations. Below 2,313, there is over $670 million in leveraged long positions, which is the next liquidation density to watch.
$SOL is barely holding near 100. In October, SOL fell about 15%, BTC about 4%, nearly four times the decline; ETF net outflows over five days reached 30.3 million, with five of seven products showing zero liquidity on October 22.
Summary: AI credit and oil prices are suppressing risk appetite, but BTC has ETF base positions shrinking, ETH is caught between technical expectations and capital outflows, and the largest weight in SOL's decline is due to ETF absence. #SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻 > Are new BTC buyers really back? This on-chain chart is worth a close look.
> Glassnode tracks the share of BTC moved in the last 3 months vs. total Realized Cap. It measures cost-weighted recent activity, not headcount of new entrants.
> At past bull market ends, this ratio hit ∼85% in 2018 and >70% in 2021. But at the Oct 2025 peak, it was only 37% — and has kept declining, now near historical bear market bottom.
#SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
"SK Hynix Financial Report: Orders Already Scheduled Through Next Year"
The entire chip industry has been focused on SK Hynix's third-quarter financial report these past two days. What everyone cares about most isn't how much was earned in the past, but whether the next-generation HBM4 can push net profits even higher.
NVIDIA and other major computing power companies have long filled their long-term orders, even booking capacity for the year after next. However, with TSMC's custom substrate foundry division added in, early R&D expenses have surged.
This financial report will be a real test when the actual realized net profit margin is revealed. $BTC On Sunday evening, three key integer price levels were hit simultaneously. The market action is a bit frustrating—not a sharp drop, but a dull, dragging decline.
First, the backdrop for this week: The FOMC's "open cards" are actually the most dangerous. The probability of no rate change in October has surged above 87%, with Polymarket even reaching 94% at one point. Logically, this should be positive, but do the bulls dare to push? Absolutely not. Because the market is really betting on another hike in December, with Goldman Sachs even naming March next year. This kind of fully priced-in pause is essentially a dull knife cutting into flesh. If next week's speeches lean even slightly hawkish, the good news will be fully priced, triggering a long squeeze. So don't rush to increase positions; this level is not suitable for short-term speculation, even if you're itching to trade, hold back.
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$BTC 80,191 — 80,000 is being bought, but not enthusiastically.
Market: After breaking 81,000, there are indeed buy orders near 80,000, but mostly small orders; large sell walls remain at 85,000-87,500. The short-term structure is stuck in the middle, unable to rise or fall decisively.
News/On-chain: Whales are accumulating, but retail and ETFs are exiting. Large holders with 10 to 10,000 $BTC have bought between 85,000 and 89,000 $BTC since mid to late September, the most aggressive accumulation since February this year. Wintermute has moved 9,458 $BTC out of 40 new wallets in the past three weeks, worth $770 million, typical OTC acquisition followed by cold storage. Medium to long-term funds are slowly accumulating, that's a fact. But spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding $600 million in a single day, Coinbase premium index remains negative, and US buying hasn't returned. On-chain, long-term withdrawals and short-term transfers to exchanges create a tug-of-war. 80,000 is the average cost zone for ETFs and institutions; whether it holds depends on the Fed's next words.
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$ETH 2,314 — 2,300 is the whales' buy point and OGs' sell point.
Market: Sliding down from 2,433, 2,300 is the critical line for this round of bulls and bears. The daily MACD death cross hasn't recovered, Parabolic SAR remains above 2,500, technical bears still hold the initiative.
News/On-chain: The divergence here is even more intense than $BTC. One whale bought $155 million near 2,300; exchanges saw a single-day outflow of 169,770 $ETH, a four-month high, some going into staking and Aave, so immediate selling pressure is easing. But on the other side, OGs are exiting. An old wallet with a $0.31 cost sold 1,000 $ETH, another OG with an $18.83 cost sold 3,000 $ETH, pocketing 128x profits. Futures Taker CVD remains seller-dominated; aggressive shorts in derivatives haven't withdrawn. Holding 2,300 is a whale-supported pullback; if it fails, 2,200 is the next psychological barrier. Don't mistake the whales' buy point for your safety net—they can hold, you might not.
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$SOL 100.45 — The upgrade has landed, but the price hasn't responded; 100 is now the betting table.
Market: Dropped from 105 to the edge of 100, 107-108 has become a short-term barrier, 100 is a psychological level and cluster of lows; breaking it would look ugly for the short-term structure.
News/On-chain: Alpenglow mainnet just launched, finality reduced from 6-12 seconds to 150 milliseconds, the narrative is solid. But on launch day, about 20.3% of staked validators were marked "not fully prepared," with testnet history of resets and rollbacks. This isn't a "upgrade = price pump" freebie; it's a gamble on whether that 20% of validators are fast enough. ETFs have fled for 12 consecutive days, with nearly $33 million net outflow in the last 5 days; institutions are not buying short-term. But whales are staking at low levels, ecosystem RWA and activity remain alive, showing a clear disconnect between price and fundamentals. Holding 100 is a shakeout; if it fails, 95 is next. Staking lockups removing circulating supply is a slow variable, won't save short-term panic.
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$RE 0.37724 — The thinnest one, don't treat it as a safe haven.
Market: Only $310,000 in volume, a 1.7% bounce means little. With such thin depth, a slightly larger order can cause a spike.
On-chain/Fundamentals: Re is doing on-chain reinsurance, TVL $466 million, deposits over $375 million, underlying assets correspond to real premiums, not a Ponzi scheme. The logic is solid, but token liquidity and protocol TVL are different matters. This kind of asset needs a market event, like a chain-wide liquidation cascade or clearing event to draw attention; otherwise, it just lies dormant. Don't assume "insurance" means it's resistant to drops; thinly traded insurance tokens are inherently risky.
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$OKB 107.73 — The platform token fell with the market, but its "burn narrative" needs a sober look.
Market: Dropped from 114 to 107, follows the market down but not up; platform tokens still have beta characteristics.
News: $OKB completed a one-time large-scale burn in August 2025, fixing total supply at 21 million, with no ongoing buyback and burn mechanism. The BNB-style "profit → burn" flywheel is off for $OKB. Fee discounts and lottery benefits remain, holding experience is fine, but don't price "burn" as a continuing catalyst. The logic is utility and platform ecosystem, not deflation expectations. No need to watch it daily, but be clear on what you're trading.
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In summary: Three key integer levels tested on the same day can easily stir emotions. But on-chain data tells you—whales are slowly accumulating, OGs are slowly selling, ETFs are withdrawing, and the FOMC's "good news" might be a trap. At times like this, position size matters more than direction. Don't heavily bet on one side in this tug-of-war zone.
This article is a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Paradigm left, MC left, and now A16Z has also left.
The faith in BTC among people in the circle doesn't feel as strong as it was in 2017 or 2020. Those were foolish but passionate times, back then people:
Believed in the third wave EOS
Believed in BCH to counterattack BTC
Believed in the storage king FIL
Believed in the public chain king ICP
Strangely, now that the ETF has been approved and the US supports it, the faith atmosphere in the crypto circle is getting thinner and thinner…#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Nomura sees the AI arms race as stuck in a difficult deadlock, and even with pressure on the free cash flow of major tech companies, they may continue to increase their investments. The report expects about a 75% chance that the race will continue, and that memory supply and prices for 2027 have been largely secured through long-term agreements. The closure of the financing market is the main risk that could break the race, while power shortages may delay chip deployment but may not change long-term demand.If SpaceX and Tesla really merge, there is an issue even harder to clarify than technological synergy: the two companies face very different business environments.
SpaceX has sensitive U.S. government and defense contracts, while Tesla has significant production and sales activities in China. Recent analyses have begun discussing how to handle compliance, information, and operational arrangements if these businesses are placed under the same group.
This does not mean the deal will definitely be blocked, nor can any regulatory agency be conclusively judged at this point. But it reminds me that the difficulty of a merger goes far beyond the two boards agreeing on a price.
Some arrangements are relatively clear when operating separately, but once under the same group, they may need to be re-explained. Which businesses remain independent, which resources can be shared, and what approvals or contract conditions are involved—all must wait for the formal plan to answer.
I understand everyone's expectations for large tech groups, but I also worry that the market might take "the same founder" as a reason to overlook these issues.
For shareholders, synergy benefits are worth calculating, but the costs of maintaining complex business structures cannot be ignored. In the end, if extensive isolation arrangements are needed, the originally imagined shared advantages must be reassessed.
Now I prefer to wait for specific documents. Technologically cooperating and commercially complementing each other are very attractive; but for such a large deal, it is still necessary to clearly explain how the different businesses will coexist.
#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？ $XAUT
Sunday prices were almost unchanged, can this be considered a consensus in the gold market?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XAUT's 24-hour price change was +0.06%, ranging from 3977.1 to 3999.1 USDT.
Gold tokens trade continuously, while traditional gold markets are mostly closed on weekends. The narrow fluctuations may reflect token market liquidity more. We cannot infer that global gold buying has resumed based on small Sunday movements.
Wait until major markets resume trading to verify tracking and price differences; if deviations widen, risks related to gold direction and token trading should be distinguished.“Institutional heavy holding of CORE” is the biggest misunderstanding: custody, ETP, nodes, none of these are shareholders
The institutional list circulating in the community easily misleads people into thinking that capital is heavily positioned in CORE, but this is a typical conceptual confusion. Core DAO adopts a fair launch, with no VC-level private placements, no institutions buying into the foundation or obtaining low-price locked tokens; these institutions are not project shareholders.
Custodians like BitGo and Cobo only provide BTC asset custody and staking channels, serving clients to earn custody fees, and do not continuously buy large amounts of CORE themselves; Valour’s BTC staking ETP is based on Bitcoin as the underlying asset, merely using Core’s Satoshi Plus staking mechanism; node service providers like Figment and Everstake run validator nodes, earning income from staking service fees, which does not represent long-term holding of CORE.
A few companies, such as BTCS, hold a small amount of CORE in the secondary market, but the position size is very small and cannot be considered a strategic heavy holding.
Business cooperation ≠ holding to support the price; service providers can take down nodes or shut down related products at any time. Coupled with the ongoing withdrawal of validators, SatPay delays, and continuous selling pressure, do not mistake cooperation narratives as a guarantee for price increases.$SUI contract volume surged to 530 million in a single hour, while the spot market only has 10 million.
There is basically no new off-exchange money taking over; it's all long leverage in derivatives cannibalizing each other in a chain stampede.
The rebound can't even reach a decent resistance level, pitifully weak, and longs are even paying funding fees.
Without spot market support, this volume-less dead cat bounce is purely a bull trap; the downtrend hasn't stopped at all.
#SUI
$SUI
👇In 2021, DoorDash offered $40–50 billion to buy it, but the deal fell through.
Today, it has a market value of $12 billion and is actively asking investment banks to help find a buyer.
The Information reported on Friday: Instacart has hired investment banks to explore a sale and has had preliminary acquisition talks with DoorDash.
Bloomberg added: It also approached Uber, but Uber walked away.
On Friday's close, its stock rose 9.2% to $56.44, while Uber fell 3% and DoorDash fell 4%.
At a conventional premium of 30%–40%, the sale price would be about $16–17 billion.
I think this is the most dignified exit for a company whose growth story no longer convinces: revenue growth will be only 11% in 2024 and 2025, while DoorDash was 28% last year.
The risk is antitrust: both are the largest food delivery platforms in the US, so even if a deal is made, it might be broken up.
Do you think the final buyer will be DoorDash, or will no one take the offer?
$CART $DASH $UBER
#Instacart #MergersAndAcquisitions Last night BTC briefly dropped below $80,000, with the low point around the $79,146–79,750 range, marking a recent low. This was mainly a rebound after concentrated liquidation of long leverage on the contract side. By the morning of October 25 (UTC), it had returned to trading near $80,500–80,800.
1️⃣ This is not a one-sided crash but a typical "leverage sweep" scenario in a weekend environment with thin liquidity. Overall, it is a classic volatility pattern of "high leverage + low liquidity weekend," rather than a sudden major negative event.
2️⃣ After a large amount of long leverage was washed out, selling pressure temporarily weakened. The price found buying support near $79,000–$80,000 (psychological level + technical support), and some shorts began to be liquidated by the rebound, creating some short squeeze momentum.
3️⃣ Open Interest only slightly decreased or remained relatively stable after the event, with no complete deleveraging; the funding rate remained mildly positive (longs paying shorts), indicating the market still has some long bias, though crowding has been temporarily relieved.
4️⃣ Summary: This was a typical weekend long leverage cleanup. After breaking below 80,000, many longs were forcibly liquidated. The price bottomed and then rebounded due to selling pressure release and some buying intervention. Currently, OI has not shrunk significantly, indicating leverage has not been fully cleared. Attention should be paid to whether it can hold the $80,000–$81,000 range and the impact of next week's Fed-related expectations. The market looks red, but has it really stabilized?
Bitcoin today was forcibly pulled back from the 80,000 edge to around 80,500, and Ethereum also followed with a slight rebound, climbing to about 2,340.
The gains look like one or two percent, but honestly, this rebound is nothing compared to the big drop a few days ago. The whole market now feels like it's barely surviving a disaster, yet still shaky. There's too much resistance above; even a slight upward probe triggers selling pressure. Everyone is waiting for clear signals from the macro and capital fronts; otherwise, this market is a double-edged sword, and no one dares to bet heavily. With Bitcoin and Ethereum unstable, the lower tiers are having a hard time.
Following the market, I casually checked CORE, which I haven't looked at for a long time. Wow, it’s completely still, seemingly hitting new lows again.
I remember during the last Bitcoin rally, when it rose from 69,000 to over 70,000, CORE also rose from 0.017 to 0.03. Although it then declined and hovered between 0.022 and 0.025 for about a month.
Unexpectedly, this time Bitcoin has risen to the 80,000s and 84,000s, but CORE has kept falling, down to 0.017, only barely rising about five percent today along with the market.
Most of the early optimistic investors have probably already lost money and exited, I think.
Not much more to say; I really admire those who still dare to buy in.
Based on past timelines, I don’t think 0.017 is the bottom; it can still drop again. It breaks new lows every year. Just like three months ago, when we thought 0.03 was the bottom.The probability that the Fed won't raise rates next week is 90%, but Bitcoin crashed first as a warning.
CME data shows a 90.6% chance of no change in October. Logically, bad news should be good news, but BTC was once hammered down to 79,000 over the weekend and has barely climbed back to 81,000 now. Why? Because Wall Street insiders are focused on December—100 economists unanimously bet that rates will still rise by the end of the year.
Don't be fooled by the phrase "no rate hike." September just had a round of hikes, and inflation expectations have soared to the highest since May. What does this mean? Even if the Fed softens its tone next week, its actions will remain tough. What the crypto market fears most is not the rate hike itself, but the expectation that "high interest rates will have to be endured for a long time."
$BTC A friend who does arbitrage shut down his entire system today and withdrew all his money.
He was doing long-tail asset arbitrage on Binance Futures with very strict rules: short positions only on Binance, automatic position reduction by the program starting at 4x liquidation price, and margin kept up to 10x. Sounds pretty stable.
But this time with IRYS, it all went wrong. The futures price was over 50% higher than the spot price, with no hard cap, and the short position was directly liquidated by a price surge. He said there was already a 5% positive premium when entering, thinking it was leftover from short liquidations, but it unexpectedly surged all the way to 50%.
His current conclusion is that this set of rules is meaningless: reducing positions at 4x and keeping 10x margin only lowers the probability of extreme cases, but if it really happens, you still suffer big losses. Traditional financial futures all have a price deviation hard cap.
My view is simpler. Arbitrage profits come from price differences, and the premise is that prices have a boundary. Who sets the boundary? The platform. If the platform doesn’t intervene, your model is empty, no matter how diversified your positions are.
One more thing, Bitget previously had a large deviation in the TUT futures index, directly risk-controlled the market maker, and even compensated them. For the same extreme market conditions, the handling was very different.
For those doing arbitrage, ask before entering: who controls the price ceiling of this pool? Today I listened to a friend who does arbitrage review his trades; he shut down the system and withdrew all his money.
The Binance IRYS contract price was more than 50% higher than the spot price, without any price cap, and the short positions were pushed to liquidation all the way. His originally set 4x automatic deleveraging and 10x margin reserve were useless against this tug-of-war.
He made a comparison, saying that Bitget's previous TUT contract index was ridiculously off, and the risk control market maker directly compensated users.
In the same extreme market conditions, one side lost money, while the other didn't even offer an explanation.$XAU Gold bears, take note! The latest U.S. intelligence reveals potential new developments in the Iran situation!
On October 24, Reuters disclosed: U.S. intelligence agencies warned that Iran's plans to attack U.S. personnel overseas have entered a more advanced stage, and the U.S. is reducing staff at some Middle East diplomatic missions.
Note: This is currently an intelligence alert and does not mean an attack has occurred!
I believe gold is facing a tug-of-war between two forces:
Risk-off logic: If U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, safe-haven funds may drive gold to rebound quickly, squeezing short positions.
Interest rate logic: If oil prices rise further pushing inflation expectations higher, U.S. Treasury real yields strengthen, and gold may continue to face pressure.
My judgment: Short-term risks for gold are rising, but a trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet. Especially for highly leveraged short positions, the biggest threat is not a normal rebound but price jumps and stop-loss slippage triggered by sudden news.
Key factors to watch next: U.S.-Iran follow-up actions, international oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury real yields.
Gold bears, do you choose to hold on or protect your profits now?
For market communication only, not investment advice. #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #WillFedPauseInOctober
THE FED MAY PAUSE, BUT INFLATION REMAINS THE PROBLEM.
Weak jobs data supports a pause, but stubborn inflation limits the Fed’s room to ease policy.
For Bitcoin, a pause alone isn’t enough. Markets need signs of easier financial conditions and a genuine shift toward rate cuts.
My take: Watch inflation, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s guidance. The difference between a pause and a pivot matters.
$BTC $BTC BTC rebound bull trap is not over yet: after breaking below 79220, 73000 will be the real nightmare for bulls
I don't consider the current sideways movement around 80432 of BTC as a bottoming out, but rather as a breather before a breakdown. The daily price is pressed below the EMA short-to-mid-term resistance zone, the MACD death cross has persisted for 26 candles, and the bearish momentum bars continue to expand; the CCI-style sentiment observation also shows that the market has not formed a strong oversold recovery. The pullback structure after the previous high of 84898 has not been reversed, the rebound volume hasn't kept up, and today's volume is only about 15% of the 7-day average volume. This kind of low-volume sideways movement is perfect for creating a false bottom-fishing illusion.
More importantly, the funds have not recognized the so-called reversal. Large funds had a net outflow of about 1682 BTC on the day, with a net outflow rate of 11.85%, and the OBV logic still favors seller dominance; the price approached the 7-day low of 79220 but there was no active buying volume to support it. The most common mistake retail investors make is to shout "reversal" at a small bullish candle, rush to add positions when it dips a bit, and end up wrapping their holding fantasies into long-term beliefs. The market never rewards emotions; the more crowded the bulls are, the easier liquidity becomes fuel for a downside crash.
When news and macro expectations do not provide enough support for risk assets, BTC's high valuation requires real capital relay rather than community slogans. My bearish view is very clear: once 79220 is effectively broken, 73000 will become the next downside target that must be faced.Last night around 11 PM, I watched ETH fall harder in a single hour than it had the previous morning. My first thought was that a massive wave of liquidations had hit the market. But the OKX ETH perpetual data told a different story. Open interest fell by only around 1,000 during that hour, compared with a decline of roughly 12,000 during the previous morning’s sell-off. That’s less than one-tenth of the earlier drop. Even more interesting, long participation increased during the decline, and op#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Nomura Securities believes that market concerns about AI investment prospects are "overreactions." The shortage of memory chips will continue until 2028, and the current valuation of the memory sector is severely undervalued. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index even once set the longest consecutive decline record since the 2008 financial crisis📉
Nomura maintains a "Buy" rating for $SAMSUNG and $SKHYNIX, with target prices of 670,000 KRW and 4,700,000 KRW respectively.
On October 23, SK Hynix launched the iHBM supply chain collaboration, aiming to secure dominance in AI memory storage🔗
Exposed AI memory roadmap: 1δ node, HBM5/6, G11 NAND advancing simultaneously🚀
What’s truly worth noting is the difference in pace:
SK Hynix is doing "supply chain collaboration" (binding customers), while $xMU is "exposing the roadmap" (showcasing technology). One is competing for customers, the other is showing off technology.
For the HBM4 generation, SK Hynix’s share is declining, Samsung is chasing, and Micron is betting on the next generation. Micron’s HBM4 share is currently only about 10%, but its roadmap is the most aggressive.
Technology leadership and market share are two different things in the HBM track👀The DeFi sector showed an intriguing divergence today: $UNI and $AAVE both rebounded simultaneously intraday, while the true weekly outperformer was $CRV, which dipped slightly intraday but gained over 8% in seven days, leaving the other two established blue chips behind. This is the first time short-term momentum and weekly strength have diverged in direction, a classic signal that capital is redeploying within the sector. Let's first look at the two intraday rebounders. $AAVE is currently around $148, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, but still down about 2.5% over seven days, indicating this rebound is more of an oversold correction than a trend reversal. The first support lies between $145–147, with resistance at $150–152; only a firm break above $158 would substantially improve the structure. If it falls below $144, watch for a retest of the $140 area. $UNI is currently about $7.07, up roughly 2% in 24 hours, nearly flat over seven days. The previous support zone is $6.9–7, with major resistance at $7.3–7.45; only breaking above $7.6 would suggest continued recovery, while falling below $6.8 would require reassessing the short-term direction. The real highlight is $CRV. Currently priced around $0.37, it has slightly pulled back in 24 hours but clearly leads on the weekly chart, showing stronger elasticity than the two sector leaders. The first support is at $0.358–0.364, with resistance at $0.39–0.40; only breaking above $0.41 would open upward potential. If it falls below $0.35$AKE Long Position Graveyard: Smaller Coins Face Even More Brutal Deleveraging
AKE's futures open interest (OI) surged 90.5% in the past two days, with a large influx of leveraged long positions. The result? After the October 21 unlock, the first two unlocks of AKE dropped 22% and 49% within a week respectively. Although there was a brief rebound this time, the futures volume being 93 times that of the spot market structurally doomed it to a stampede.
How was this pit dug: The unlock brought continuous selling pressure, liquidity is thin (top 100 wallets control 99%), so a small number of sell orders can break through the buy side. It was smashed from 0.03131 down to 0.02891 with almost no rebound in between.
I picked up this short position at the bottom of the pit. 20x leverage, opened at 0.03131, now at 0.02891, floating profit +153.30%. But I’m not greedy.
Has it stabilized? No.
AKE: 0.028-0.0289 is the recent support zone; if broken, look to 0.0228 (weekly low). Above, 0.030 is a psychological barrier, 0.03131 is the entry/stop-loss price; if it can’t reclaim that, the pit digging continues.
This is not a bottom, it’s a "longs blown out waiting for shorts to blow" turnover pit. The short side with 20x leverage only has a 4-5% margin for error. Before FOMC, don’t rush to bottom-fish, wait for signals. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ GOJIPOWER 6 hours ago
...
Bitcoin spot at $80,840, essentially flat on the day (-0.05%). The flow data underneath is not flat.
ETFs: -$137.9M (-1,694 BTC), the second straight outflow day, after -$635.6M the day before. But the five-day total is still +$301.2M, with single days above $500M on Oct 19 and Oct 21. This is churn, not a one-way exit.
Reading yesterday alone gets the sign wrong.#BTCETFFlowSwings $BTC $BTC eyes 79220, $ETH targets 2282, $ZEC retests 1118: Do bulls still dare to mistake a slow decline for a takeoff?
I don't consider the rebound a reversal. BTC is currently at 80500, still below EMA7 at 81864 and EMA25 at 82947, with MACD in a death cross for the 26th day and a net daily capital outflow of 1697 BTC; ETH is at 2339, with EMA7 pressing above 2400, SuperTrend maintaining a downtrend, and a 30-day decline of 12.95%. Although ZEC retains a short-term MACD golden cross, its price remains below EMA7 and EMA25, and the so-called "strong catch-up rally" looks more like high-level chips seeking a buyer. If the rebound doesn't recover the cost band, don't rush to hype it up.
The crowdedness of the futures market is even more worrisome: BTC, ETH, and ZEC funding rates are all positive, approximately 0.006%, 0.0078%, and 0.0054% respectively, meaning bulls are still paying holding costs; among them, ETH's long positions account for 75.45% of the entire market, and the position volume slightly increases when the price weakens. Explaining every drop as "the whales handing you a ride" essentially hands over stop-losses to fantasy—holding positions is not faith, and leverage won't automatically become a bottom just because the comment section shouts loudly.
On the news front, on October 24, the market saw about $192 million in liquidations within an hour, mostly longs, indicating risk appetite$ETH $BTC $SOL BTC holds above 80,000, can we rest easy with the rebound?
Reviewing last week's data: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $301 million for the week, but funds clearly fled in the latter half of the market, with a cumulative net outflow of $774 million over the last two trading days; ETH ETFs experienced a continuous net outflow of $221 million throughout the week.
Price-wise, the market seems somewhat recovered, but the capital flow has not fully turned bullish.
Key resistance levels to watch closely: BTC 82,000, ETH 2,400, BNB 750, SOL 105. With next week's PCE data and consecutive Federal Reserve decisions, whether the rebound can sustain depends not on briefly holding support, but on whether there is sustained buying momentum after breaking through resistance levels. Just picked up an iced Americano made with profits from a PUMP short, and casually opened OKX's prediction market, instantly making my coffee taste less appealing.
Look at this data: a real cash injection of 4.75 million dollars. The probability of a “Democratic sweep of both chambers” has surged to 76%, while another scenario, “Republican Senate + Democratic House,” stands at 66%.
Let's hardcore review the macro game behind this:
This isn’t about votes; it’s clearly the “ledger of life and death” for crypto regulation in the coming years! Recently, the White House’s stance on digital assets has been wavering, and the SEC’s sword still hangs overhead. The millions in trading volume in the prediction market are all big players hedging policy risks in advance. Once politicians turn hostile, all technical analysis and small-time manipulators will be crushed under the macro iron fist.
We fight in the candlesticks, while they roll dice in Washington. Before the macro test lands, we really need to be cautious. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $SNDK
“Friends, what do you think this two-chamber election will bring? A bull market for crypto, or a regulatory crackdown?” 4-hour inflow cannot change the 30-day outflow
$BTC spot 4-hour net inflow is $4.54 million.
Contract 4-hour net inflow is $281 million.
How this number is calculated: 4 hours and 30 days are not the same.
4 hours shows who is buying on the day.
30 days shows where the money has moved over the month.
The two directions are opposite, indicating short-term replenishment.
Where this money comes from: $ETH 30-day contract net outflow is $8.21 billion.
$SOL and $ZEC 30-day contracts are also still in net outflow.
Large funds have not returned.
The small inflow in 4 hours looks more like a low-level rebound grab.
It is not a trend reversal.
Mid-term funds are still flowing out.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#$BTC $ETH BTC fell below 80,000, and the market is starting to worry again about the "midterm election curse."
Historically, there have indeed been multiple major pullbacks in election years, but this year's timeline is different: the low point in July was about $57,850, already completing a deep correction in advance, followed by a rebound of nearly 40%.
So I am more focused on the cost zone rather than just watching November 3rd.
Short-term outlook:
80,000 → 78,000
The truly critical area:
73,000–75,000
This is also close to the cost zone for short-term holders and institutions. If it only pulls back and holds, the bull market structure still has a chance to continue; if it truly breaks below, then the trend needs to be reassessed.
Elections may bring volatility, but what ultimately determines the strength of the market is whether the key cost zone can hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
##SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Brothers, this ETH smart money data clearly explains the current long-short situation.
Overall structure: 2,175 whale traders, total positions of 1.62 billion U. The nominal long-short ratio is only 23.96%—shorts account for 76%, with 1,382 shorting and 793 going long; the number and volume of shorts overwhelmingly surpass the longs.
On the long side: positions total 313 million U, average entry price 2863, while ETH is currently only 2346. This means the average cost for longs is 2863, now floating a loss of 69.13 million U, with a profit ratio of only 25.97%. In other words, these longs are all trapped above 2800 at high levels, deeply stuck with an 18% loss, unwilling to cut losses but suffering by holding on.
On the short side: positions total 1.3 billion U, average entry price 2311, now at 2346. Shorts have an average floating loss of 19.42 million U but still maintain a profit ratio of 65.26%. This indicates most shorts opened near the low at 2311; although there was a rebound, overall they are still profitable. The short volume is four times that of the longs, showing a very clear direction for big money.
The most critical signal: both sides are floating losses. Longs lose 69.13 million, shorts lose 19.42 million. The price is exactly stuck in the middle—longs feel it has fallen enough and shouldn’t drop further, shorts feel the rebound is about done and it’s time to continue shorting.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH