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$APR token unlock schedule.
The official unlock schedule shows that there is no APR unlock event today, October 25; the most recent unlock occurred on October 23, and the next one will be on January 23, 2027. Most recent unlock (October 23, already occurred) • End of time lock period, releasing the one-year lockup for early investors and the core team. • According to official documents, about 92.8 million APR were released, approximately 33.4% of the circulating supply at that time; according to DefiLlama, about 149.7 million APR ↗ were released, about 54%. The two figures differ significantly due to different statistical scopes (unlock target range / whether linear parts are included); the actual data should be based on the project's official data. Next unlock (January 23, 2027) • Subsequent quarterly unlocks: April, July, October 23 of 2027, and January, April, July, October 23 of 2028, each about 54.34 million APR (approximately 5.4% of the maximum supply).THE INCOME STATEMENT HAS A PLOT TWIST.
Papertrade generated approximately $8.5M in protocol revenue over seven days, according to DefiLlama.
Now examine its TVL:
Oct 11: $102.09M
Oct 24: $33.22M
A 67.5% decline.
Here’s the accounting catch: reported revenue includes liquidity-pool profits distributed to stakers, not merely trading fees.
Impressive revenue and shrinking collateral can coexist. Neither number tells the full story.
#DeFi #DerivativesFirst, consider the worst-case scenario: if this short position faces a continuous price increase, losses will keep expanding, and if the margin is insufficient, it might be forcibly liquidated. I just saw Core Trader 57 open a short on $ETH with 6x leverage, holding 14.1796 coins, with a notional value of about $33,300; before the outcome is clear, I want to assess how much risk he is taking.
My judgment is that 6x leverage does not mean moderate risk; the key is how large the position is relative to the account size. A habit from my risk control experience is to first ask: if this trade goes wrong, can the account withstand it?
⚠️ Roughly calculating by notional value, if ETH rises 5%, this short position would have an unrealized loss of about $1,664, excluding fees. If we simply calculate by 6x leverage, the initial margin is about $5,547, so this adverse move would consume roughly 30% of it. However, without information on account equity, margin mode, and margin calls, we cannot determine the exact liquidation price or judge if this is a heavy position.
My risk control advice for ordinary people is: first convert the maximum tolerable loss per trade into a proportion of account equity, then check if the position size and leverage match, and don't mistake the liquidation price for a stop-loss. For a 6x short like this, how do you usually set your stop-loss per trade? Is it based on coin price fluctuations or on a proportion of account loss?$SUI
The rebound struggles to regain lost ground; what is the growth premium waiting for?
In this morning's spot snapshot, SUI's 24-hour price change was -1.88%, ranging between 0.9117 and 0.9688 USDT.
The price is above the low point but still down over 24 hours, indicating that support is insufficient to complete a full-day recovery. High-growth ecosystems require retention and effective payment; transaction volume driven by incentives does not necessarily translate into economic value.
If usage remains stable after incentives decline, the pullback can be reassessed; if funds retreat with the fading activities, the growth premium should be lowered rather than just waiting for mainstream coins to lead.Spot prices are falling, but contract longs are paying to hold on; SOL rates have turned negative, yet 76% of accounts are still long
Three major coins are exposing the same problem in three different ways: the gap between bottom signals and actual position structures is widening
$BTC fell 3.7%, but the perpetual funding rate remains positive, with open interest rising to $7.72 billion. New positions are entering even as prices drop. Spot is distributing, while contract longs are "paying to hold"—this is not bottom fishing, it's financing hope
$SOL's 8-hour average funding rate has plunged to -0.021%, with $17.3 million long liquidations in 24 hours versus only $1 million short liquidations. Paradoxically, 76.4% of market accounts remain long, but only 48.1% of active trades are long. Position holders are betting on a rebound, but actual executed funds are selling
$XRP's 365-day MVRV has dropped to 0.92, holders are on average about 8% underwater, valuation is near bottom territory. However, exchange reserves are as high as 11.81 billion tokens, worth about $15.7 billion. Cheap valuation and a supply dam coexist, so any rebound must first absorb this supply.
Summary: For BTC, watch when longs stop paying; for SOL, watch when account longs give up; for XRP, watch if exchange reserves decline. Prices can deceive, but funding rates and position structures do not.
Will SOL's 76% long accounts surrender above $100?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, pull out the data of BTC whales on the exchange from the past few days, and you'll have plenty to analyze.
First, let's talk about the long-short ratio of account numbers. From October 20 to 25, it formed a three-stage pattern of "surge — pullback — rebound." Initially, long accounts crowded in, pushing the ratio close to 0.8, showing a strong bullish stance. But it didn't hold for two days before collapsing, with short accounts flooding in, pushing the ratio back down to around 0.45 — that was when longs and shorts were most conflicted. In the past two days, it quietly climbed back, indicating fresh capital entering to buy the dip, with longs and shorts tugging back and forth around 0.5. Simply put, the whales themselves haven't decided which side to take.
Next, look at the long-short ratio of open interest, which is even more interesting. It surged from 3 to 15 with volatile upward movement — whales were increasing long leverage positions, showing a very determined direction. But after reaching a high, it turned downward, indicating some started reducing positions, taking profits, or even reversing. A drop in open interest ratio often means the momentum behind the surge is fading.
Putting these two together makes it clear: account numbers are rising while open interest is falling — people are entering the market, but positions are being withdrawn. This is a classic "bullish in words, reducing positions in action" scenario, with extreme long-short divergence.
So, BTC has been quite a rollercoaster these days. When the long-short ratio fluctuates wildly, the worst thing is to rush to pick a side; once you enter, you often end up taking the sell-off baton for someone else. $11.69 billion BTC options expiring, I am bearish until Monday
On October 30, about 140,800 BTC options will expire, with a notional value of approximately $11.69 billion.
Currently, about two-thirds are call options. The largest open interest is concentrated at $95,000, while the maximum pain point is at $78,000. These two levels differ by $17,000, and the BTC price is currently near $80,000, closer to the maximum pain point.
A large number of $95,000 call contracts are already far from the current price. As expiration approaches, time value continues to decay. The more concentrated the bets above, the longer the price struggles to rise, increasing pressure on bullish positions.
ETH is also facing a large-scale expiry, with about 323,400 options expiring, having a notional value of approximately $765 million. Currently, call options account for 56.3%, with the maximum pain point at $2,500 and the largest open interest concentrated in $2,600 call options.
Liquidity is low over the weekend, and the market shows a rebound that looks more like a short squeeze cleanup, not signaling the end of the downtrend. Liquidations in the past 24 hours are still dominated by longs, and the overall market structure has not strengthened. I remain bearish.
When liquidity returns on Monday, CME, ETFs, and institutional funds will re-enter the market, and the true direction will be amplified. If BTC fails to reclaim $82,000, selling pressure will increase again, and $80,000 will continue to be under pressure. The key support to watch below is near $78,000. 💻 I usually start by looking at the input: According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data, the current highest absolute funding rate is for $XMR, with a positive rate of 0.0087%/hour, annualized at about 76%, and a 24-hour increase of 4.98%. This means that currently, longs are paying shorts.
My review conclusion: This looks more like a warning about the cost of holding long positions, not a "yield strategy" that can be launched just because of a high annualized rate. When the price rises, holding long positions still requires continuous payment; directional judgment and holding costs need to be calculated separately.
There are two logical pitfalls. The funding rate is a current snapshot, and the annualized figure is just an extrapolation based on the current level; it does not mean it can be continuously collected in the future. For shorts, receiving funding does not necessarily mean overall profit; if the price continues to rise, losses from price differences may outweigh funding income. This is my risk analysis, not a market prediction.
If it were me, I would change the judgment logic to: first see if the funding rate can be sustained, then see if price fluctuations make this cost or income meaningless. Focusing only on 76% is like code passing normal test cases but not yet tested for edge cases.
Please help me review: to judge whether longs are crowded this time, would you prioritize checking changes in open interest or the duration of the funding rate? Are there any loopholes in my logic?The $ETH liquidation line at 2250 under ETH is just for show.
On the market, big players are stubbornly holding over 90,000 long positions, with the liquidation price around 2256.
Last time it dropped to just a few dozen dollars from liquidation, but it was forcibly pulled up to survive.
The dealer has the meat right at their lips, there's no reason not to eat it.
If they really step down again, these over 90,000 coins will be ready fuel to crash the market.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$ZEC This market situation is hilarious.
In the past week, institutions have stubbornly bought $42 million worth of spot despite the trend, with over $20 million spent in just one day last Friday.
Yet the market keeps drifting down daily, and contract positions have been squeezed to the point of dropping 12%. Top whales are blindly opening short positions, with shorts accounting for over 90% of the positions.
This is a classic case of contract longs being wiped out while spot funds quietly accumulate.
Shorts are now all squeezed into a narrow compartment, paying interest to hold on stubbornly. If spot buying picks up even a bit, these shorts will all become rocket fuel.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$APR can't even last half a day anymore? The previous ones lasted two or three days, you know The crypto market recently experienced a severe shakeout, with BTC briefly dipping below the $80,000 mark, triggering over $800 million in long liquidations across the network; however, after panic subsided, the market quickly rebounded, with the three major mainstream coins collectively entering overbought territory, creating a tug-of-war between technicals and their respective news.
$BTC is quoted at 80,819, with a KDJ J value of 84.3, and clear liquidation resistance at 81,606 above. Peter Schiff publicly turned bearish down to 75,000, but ahead of the Fed's October 28 meeting, market sentiment is cautious, making the 80,000 level a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
$ETH is quoted at 2,361, with a J value of 88.19, the most overbought. Last night it hit a low of 2,282, just $30 above the liquidation price of a whale holding nearly $400 million in longs; this whale urgently added 9.21 million USDC to push the liquidation price down to 2,181. Another whale holding $214 million in longs also added 5.67 million in margin to avoid liquidation. The whales are firmly defending 2,181, clearly aiming to support in the short term, but resistance is dense between 2,385 and 2,415 above.
$ZEC is quoted at 1,211, with the NU7 upgrade locked for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. However, on Hyperliquid, among 84 accounts, shorts total 216.3 million while longs only 136.8 million, with shorts accounting for 61%. The Winklevoss brothers' submission of the spot ETF S-1 filing is the core catalyst for the rebound, but the 1,240–1,250 range remains a dense liquidation resistance zone above. $XRP Franklin injected nearly $200 million worth of fund shares into the XRP Ledger, nearly quadrupling in one day. But at the same time, $XRP has been steadily declining.
Breaking it down reveals a harsh truth:
1. The institution bought a Singapore dollar money market fund, backed by US Treasury bonds, not XRP tokens at all.
2. The money and control are entirely in the institution's hands, with the issuer retaining full freezing and recall rights.
3. The on-chain stablecoin market cap and activity are even shrinking.
Institutions treat the chain as their own cash management track. The track is open, but the tools running on it belong to institutions, while retail holders are the ones being cut.
Stop mistaking institutions borrowing the track as your get-rich-quick opportunity.Market news says SpaceX plans to raise about $40 billion to purchase Nvidia chips, but as the AI credit market fluctuates, financing costs and investor demands for renegotiation have caused resistance to the plan's progress. The core issue is not whether SpaceX has an AI story, but whether computing power assets can cover financing costs. AI infrastructure investment requires huge upfront capital expenditure, while revenue and cash flow will be realized later; rising interest rates or widening credit spreads will quickly compress project returns. SpaceX just announced Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $4.4 billion, indicating a strong business foundation. But strong performance does not mean any scale of debt is reasonable, especially when financing is used to continue purchasing rapidly iterating chips, as depreciation, utilization, and customer contracts all affect returns. My judgment: financing resistance is actually a stress test. If SpaceX can present long-term customer contracts, evidence of computing power utilization, and cash flow coverage, financing is just a matter of price; if it can only rely on high valuation and narrative, the AI capital expenditure cycle will force it to slow down first. Do you think this $40 billion is a computing power first-mover advantage or a signal of AI debt risk? #SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻 Robinhood is expected to disclose its Q3 earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on October 27. The market anticipates revenue of about $1.44 billion and earnings per share around $0.558, but what truly determines the stock price is not just meeting these targets, but whether trading revenue and user activity can continue to grow. Robinhood's revenue is very sensitive to market activity, crypto trading, and options trading. When the market is hot, trading volume and net inflows rise simultaneously; once volatility decreases, trading business growth may slow down. Therefore, three indicators need to be watched: trading volume and trading revenue, net deposits and asset size, and whether the proportion of crypto revenue remains overly concentrated. If revenue growth comes from broader product usage, the quality will be higher; if it mainly depends on a single market cycle, the sustainability of growth will be discounted. My judgment: Robinhood's story has shifted from "user growth" to "turning users into stable income." Exceeding earnings expectations is not enough; management must also prove that growth is not entirely dependent on market sentiment. Do you think HOOD's next phase will rely on product expansion or continue to depend on market volatility? #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ SK Hynix will disclose its Q3 2026 results on October 28. The market views HBM4 as the biggest highlight, but the earnings report actually needs to verify three key variables: DRAM/NAND prices, HBM shipment pace, and next year's capacity and order guidance. If HBM4 is still in small batch shipments, its contribution to this quarter's profit may be limited, with more value reflected in customer certification, order visibility, and future capacity. Equating technological leadership directly with a profit surge in the current quarter is the easiest way for the market to be caught off guard. Meanwhile, memory stocks have already priced in very high AI expectations. Even if profits exceed expectations, as long as guidance is conservative, inventory rises, or capital expenditures are released earlier than planned, stock prices may still spike and then fall back. My judgment: HBM4 is an incremental variable but not the only answer yet. On October 28, the focus will be on regular memory prices, the timing of HBM4 volume ramp-up, inventory, and capital expenditure guidance. Are you more concerned about the profit figures or the actual timing of HBM4 turning into revenue? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ "Liquidation Night Bill: Bulls Lining Up to Surrender Chips (｡•́︿•̀｡)"
This round of liquidations is like a tilted bill: BTC liquidations hit 240 million U, accounting for 32.42%, with longs at 220 million and shorts at 17.9144 million, roughly 12:1; ETH liquidations at 190 million, 25.95%, with longs at 170 million and shorts at 21.4519 million; SOL liquidations at 31.9266 million, 4.40%, with longs at 29.5054 million and shorts at 2.4212 million. Different volumes, similar posture—chasing highs with leverage, then being stopped out in batches 😵💥.
Shorts barely took any damage; about 390 million in long BTC and ETH chips were cleared. Liquidation is not a full stop, but more like the bell of chip turnover 🔔. But the absorbing side didn’t keep up, selling pressure can’t be digested, the washing machine must keep spinning 🌀🧺. Before the next candlestick, ask yourself: is leverage a ticket, or a bill? (╯︵╰)📉
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 中东供应风险再次进入定价，10月23日布伦特一度接近115.10美元/桶，WTI约101.40美元。市场交易的不是需求突然爆发，而是航运、保险、制裁和库存缓冲的不确定性。 油价上涨的关键传导链是：能源成本上升→通胀预期抬头→降息预期被推迟→美债收益率和美元走强→高估值与风险资产承压。 黄金和BTC的反应不会完全一样。黄金可能受避险买盘支持，但若实际利率同步上升，涨幅会受限；BTC虽然常被当作通胀对冲，却可能先被当作风险资产卖出。 我的判断：短线先看利率，不要只看油价。若供应风险继续扩大，BTC更容易承压；若运输恢复、油价回落，风险资产才有修复空间。 接下来观察布伦特、霍尔木兹运输和美债10年期收益率。你认为黄金会先受益，还是BTC会先承压？#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 On Saturday night, $BTC fluctuated below $80,000 for less than three hours before pulling back. The candlesticks around the round number were lively, but what’s really worth reviewing are the accounts from this week. 1. The few hours over the weekend on Coinbase BTC-USD hourly chart (Beijing time): On October 24 at 22:00, the lowest was $79,707; at 23:00, the lowest was $79,107, closing at $79,691.25, which was the only hourly candle below $80,000 since 18:00 that evening; on October 25 at 00:00, the lowest was $79,475; at 01:00, the lowest was exactly $80,000, and it did not go lower afterward. As of today at 10:14, Coinbase’s best bid price is $80,751.84. Binance spot BTCUSDT daily (UTC): on October 24, the lowest was $79,220.74, closing at $80,888.16, which is the lowest intraday low since September 18 (lowest that day was $76,296). Over the weekend, US stock markets and US stock ETFs were closed, so these fluctuations occurred during a period without ETF subscriptions or redemptions. 2. ETF: inflows in the first three days, outflows in the last two days, but still a net inflow for the week. Farside’s statistics on daily net flows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (in millions of USD): 10/19The fund flow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is shifting from "large single-day outflows" to "repeated tug-of-war." According to Farside data, there was a net outflow of $635.6 million on October 22, and the outflow narrowed to about $137.9 million on October 23 (Farside still had one fund's data pending that day). This indicates that the market is not without buying interest, but the buying is no longer stable. After large redemptions, the scale of outflows quickly shrinks, which usually means some investors are waiting on macro direction rather than uniformly bearish. The three key things to watch are: whether outflows are continuous, whether IBIT and FBTC outflows are synchronized, and whether BTC price can stabilize after the fund outflows narrow. Single-day data only reflects sentiment; multiple consecutive days are closer to showing a trend. My judgment: it now looks more like a slowdown in buying rather than disappearance of buying. If the ETF continues net outflows and BTC breaks key support, risks will escalate; if outflows continue to narrow, the market may enter a consolidation phase awaiting interest rate and dollar direction. Do you think this is concentrated profit-taking or the start of a larger-scale withdrawal? #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The funding rate has risen. Don't get ahead of yourself yet.
Now, I'm more interested in who is paying. ⚡
Just saw the data: In Hyperliquid perpetual contracts public market, XMR currently has the highest absolute funding rate, with a positive rate of 0.0087% per hour, annualized about 76%, and a 24-hour increase of 4.98%. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts.
My judgment: The short-term bullish sentiment on $XMR is quite heated, but this is not a confirmation signal for continued price increase. Price rising combined with a positive funding rate means long positions bear the ongoing cost of paying fees; if the price stalls, the longer the position is held, the more obvious the cost pressure becomes. The annualized 76% looks striking but is just a conversion of the current rate, not a fixed level for the next year, nor a guaranteed profit for shorts.
For short-term entries and exits, I focus on whether price and funding rate move in sync. If the price continues to strengthen and the funding rate falls, I interpret it as a relief of crowding; if the price can't push higher and the funding rate remains high, I become more cautious about amplified volatility. This is my observation framework, not a prediction of what has already happened. Set invalidation conditions before entering; don't endure paying fees stubbornly as patience, and don't guess the top just because the funding rate is high.
When encountering XMR with such gains and high positive funding rate, would you wait for the funding rate to cool down or wait for a price breakout confirmation? Which signal would make you abandon your original judgment?$BTC $ETH $SOL latest total liquidation across the network in 24 hours is about $542 million, with long positions liquidated at $460 million, accounting for about 85%, and over 115,000 people liquidated.
1 BTC liquidation $175 million, longs account for 88.6%
2 ETH liquidation $157 million, longs account for 84.4%
3 SOL liquidation $23.91 million
4 ZEC liquidation $14.32 million
However, $542 million liquidated in 24 hours, the market just finished dropping and started short selling again.
What’s really worth watching is that the short-term cycle has already changed direction.
In the past 4 hours, liquidation was $18.41 million, shorts reached $14.61 million; in the past 1 hour, liquidation was $2.61 million, shorts nearly $1.99 million. The 24-hour period is still focused on killing longs, but the recent 4 hours have shifted to shorts dominating, possibly indicating another market change.
This shows the market has entered a two-way liquidation phase after continuous decline; those who chased longs earlier have just been washed out, and those chasing shorts are now starting to get hit. I think it’s best not to trade lightly at this time.
Currently, the overall trend is still weak, and short-term is no longer suitable for us to chase shorts at low levels. The current rebound is not a trend reversal, more like the market cleaning out longs and then conveniently harvesting a batch of short-chasing funds again. Even a16z Crypto has removed "Crypto" from its brand.
On October 22, Chris Dixon announced the rebranding to a16z Frontier, expanding the new fund's investment scope to include frontier technologies like AI, while clearly stating they will continue investing in crypto projects.
What I find worth pondering is: in the future, crypto startups seeking this funding will have to compete alongside projects from more industries.
In the past, you could say "this chain is faster than that chain" or "this protocol is cheaper than that protocol." Now investors might also have an AI product already in paid use on their table, making the comparison much broader.
A name change, of course, doesn't prove "the crypto world is over." But it does remind us of a very real fact: capital can switch tracks, and projects must provide reasons that make people want to stay.
Relying solely on points, token issuance expectations, and a prestigious list of investors—how much longer can this story be told? I'm increasingly curious.To pour some cold water first, I wouldn't automatically nod just because I see a short position opened. Core Trader 57 (0xc30c7e…ba4c9) opened a short on $ETH with 6x leverage, a nominal position of about $33,300, with a reference price of $2347.2. My judgment: this is a short that needs the price to weaken quickly to be validated; seeing the wallet take action alone is not enough evidence of a bearish view.
I'm not in a hurry to agree, for two reasons. First, monitoring only shows this position, without visibility into other holdings, so we can't rule out hedging; interpreting it directly as a one-sided bearish bet risks misjudging the intent. Second, 6x leverage is not gentle: dividing the nominal value by leverage, the initial margin is about $5547; if the price rises 5%, the unrealized loss is about $1664, roughly 30% of this estimated margin, not including fees. This is not an exact liquidation calculation but enough to show how tough it would be for the short during a rebound.
Of course, he might be right. If the price continues below the reference price and the rebound fails to hold, I would be more convinced of this short's direction; if the price recovers and keeps rising, I would be more concerned about how he controls losses rather than making excuses for him. Around the reference price of $2347.2, would you go long or short? Give one reason and what kind of price movement would make you admit you were wrong. $CL Trump said "I don't care about high oil prices 😰 America is making big money." Looking at it from another perspective, the U.S. is now a major oil producer, and high oil prices essentially represent a global wealth transfer.
In the stock market, as long as the Strait risk lingers, U.S. energy giants' profits skyrocket, even supporting the Dow; but conversely, high oil prices raise global manufacturing costs, squeezing valuations of tech growth stocks like $SOXL. This is not just a political statement but a matter of interest distribution. Understanding this logic makes the flow of funds clear. $CL Long positions liquidated, not caused by shorts
$498 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours.
Among them, long positions accounted for $340 million, or 68%.
How is this calculated:
Forced liquidations are executed by the system.
When the price falls below the margin line, positions are automatically sold.
Sell orders then push the price down, triggering the next batch.
Who placed these orders:
Nearly 180,000 people were liquidated, not targeted by anyone.
It’s the leverage setting the stop-loss line too close.
A 1% drop with 10x leverage equals 10% loss.
Where does the money come from:
5183 BTC entered spot ETFs this week.
This volume cannot hedge the selling pressure from derivatives.
The real problem is not the price drop.
It’s that long positions are crowded above 80,000.
Once the price touches it, the chain reaction runs its course.
$BTC support is created by the drop, not by defense.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#$BTC 【Tanker freight rates hit $1.41 million per day, and Scorpio is taking this “bill” to court】
The dispute centers on whether the industry should continue to settle using the original freight rate index after the war disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz involving $BZ. Scorpio is asking the court to declare the TD3C benchmark invalid since early March, shifting from claiming compensation to challenging the validity of the pricing itself.
This index is not just a reference price list; it influences billions of dollars in freight derivatives and long-term charter contracts. On October 8, the TD3C freight rate surged to $1.41 million per day, then fell about 7% to $1.31 million, still at an extremely high level.
Scorpio’s argument is that the route was almost cut off by the war, so continuing to quote prices may be misleading; the Baltic Exchange platform, however, states that vessels are still passing through and that quotes are assessed by experienced brokers. The real conflict is whether the “market benchmark” under extreme conditions should follow actual transactions or allow professional assessments to maintain continuity.
Whoever wins this case faces trouble: if the index is unreliable, hedging loses its anchor; if the court retroactively invalidates it, settled trades might be reopened and recalculated. What to watch next is how the court defines the responsibility of the benchmark publisher and whether existing contracts can be retroactively overturned.After surviving the ordeal, I closed this ETH position first. BTC is really a bit too weak. Rather than waiting for profits to retract, I’d rather close now, having already taken a 70-point profit.
Looking at the market, BTC, although up +1.02% and back above 80,000, hasn’t stabilized at 81,000. Yesterday’s probe to 79,506 looks like a bull trap, with support turning into resistance; ETH is up +1.92%, probing 2,282 yesterday and closing at 2,338. Building a position at 2,283 and adding at 2,297 shows a good trend, but the 2,400 level is a resistance with trapped positions. On the macro side, the October FOMC looms, Middle East oil at $116 plus Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia push inflation higher, US Treasuries “higher for longer” suppress rate cuts, ETF funds fluctuate, smart money’s long-short ratio is 30.83% with two-way holding, daily chart suggests a high probability of oscillating decline, with consecutive shakeouts after yesterday’s probe, bottoming near 80,000. I feel the decline isn’t over yet, so I’m protecting profits and not blindly following the trend. I’ll wait for a pullback to 2,280-2,300 or BTC to stabilize above 82,500 before reconsidering. Small capital to preserve principal, “slow is fast,” spot is better than futures, waiting for the next opportunity to trade! Yesterday’s probe really looked like a bull trap, those consecutive probes were really frustrating. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I don't touch high-leverage contracts; usually, I just watch and ponder slowly. I hold without moving anyway. But when it comes to asset security news, I pay extra attention, as this affects my judgment on long-term holding more than short-term price fluctuations.
According to Salus monitoring, Tether has blacklisted 9 addresses related to the CoinDCX security incident, freezing about 2,212,900 $USDT. The investigation was triggered by an abnormal transfer, and subsequent on-chain evidence led to this freeze.
My view is that this is not a direct bullish signal for the market but more like a long-term risk indicator: the security of stablecoins depends not only on whether abnormal funds can be blocked but also on how much control the issuer has over disposal rights.
The fact that on-chain traces can drive freezing shows that tracking and handling are indeed effective; however, freezing does not mean the funds have been recovered, nor does it mean user losses have been resolved. On the other hand, the fact that addresses can be blacklisted also reminds ordinary holders that on-chain assets may still be subject to centralized authority constraints, so they shouldn't just focus on the convenience of transfers.
Hoarding spot assets doesn't mean ignoring risks, and high leverage can easily amplify accidents, so don't press your position to the point you can't sleep. For friends holding long-term: does this freeze make you more confident in USDT's secure disposal capability, or are you more concerned about the issuer's freezing authority? BTC made a losing trade in the past fourteen hours: climbed from 79168 back to 80850 spending 1.9 million contracts, then dropped from 80850 to 80459 spending only 250,000 contracts.
From 08:00 to 12:00, five candles totaled 553,000 contracts, only pushing the close from 80844 up to 80896 — a 52-point increase. At 13:00, one candle with 250,000 contracts smashed 80896 down to 80459. The same amount of contracts moved the price down 338 points but up only 52 points.
Current price 80589 is stuck at MA20 80550, 39 points above, not standing above the moving average but barely breathing next to it.
At 14:00, US stock spot market is closed, CME is running, Asia dares not take over, Europe and America are off duty, 13:00 close at 80578 is the afternoon’s scale.
If it rebounds to 80780~80850 but can’t hold + 1H candle closes bearish with volume (≥120,000 contracts), short with stop loss at 80930, first target 80459.6 with odds 3.3; if broken, look at 80260 with odds 5.1.
If volume closes above 80900 (≥150,000 contracts), short positions are invalid; bulls should not rush either, buy on pullback at 80780, stop loss 80550, target 81008 with odds 1.0, no weak signals accepted.
$BTC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)highs, with the volume of borrowed coins for long positions continuously expanding, while the proportion of borrowed coins for short positions remains very low.
Currently, the market's bullish sentiment is very strong and consistent, with most leaning towards a bullish outlook. This consensus expectation is a double-edged sword: following the sentiment can easily lead to a surge, but after crowding, the probability of a short-term shakeout also increases.🚨🚨🚨New warning signs for Bitcoin! Long-term holders have started selling, should we be worried?
Latest on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a highly notable change is happening.
The 30-day net position change of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) has turned negative again!
📊 From the chart, we can see:
🟢 In May to June this year, long-term holders significantly increased their positions, with a 30-day net increase approaching one million BTC.
🔴 But since the end of August, this trend has gradually reversed.
By October, the net position reduction of long-term holders has even expanded!
What does this mean?
Investors who were willing to hold Bitcoin long-term are now overall reducing their holdings.
This group is usually less affected by short-term price fluctuations in the market.
When long-term holders start reducing their positions, we must pay attention to whether the market is facing new supply pressure.
However, I believe we cannot directly conclude that a bear market is imminent.
Historically, declines in long-term holders’ positions have also occurred during bull market rallies.
What truly matters is not that someone is selling, but whether the market has enough buying power to absorb it!
If long-term holders continue to reduce positions, but ETF inflows and spot demand increase simultaneously, the market may still absorb this supply.
$BTC $ETH $IRYS #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ "The spike recovery is just an illusion! The weak cycle hasn't changed, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal"
Don't think the trend has strengthened just because mainstream coins had a spike last night followed by a V-shaped recovery. In fact, the market is still deeply stuck in a weak cycle.
$BTC: Although the current price has returned above 80,000, the top is still firmly suppressed by MA7/20/30 (around 82,000/82,600/83,100), and the bearish structure hasn't changed at all. There were three main reasons for last night's sharp drop: ETF net outflow of 773 million over two days, forced liquidation of leveraged longs across the market totaling 837 million (accounting for 82.8%), plus Arthur Hayes publicly liquidating positions. Poor weekend liquidity directly amplified the stampede. The current 80,000 level is just barely supported by panic-cleared bottom-fishing funds.
$ETH: Technically the weakest among all. It bottomed at 2,320, a two-month low, with RSI at 31.8 entering oversold territory, but all moving averages above are pressing down, with the 30-day position only at 3.5%. The capital situation is even worse: ETF net outflows have continued for 14 trading days this month, with cumulative bleeding reaching 1.175 billion USD. Without fresh capital, any rebound is just empty talk.
$ZEC: Rebounded from 1,119 to 1,210, seemingly above MA7, but firmly suppressed by MA20 and MA30. RSI at 41.3 is not oversold at all, and the 30-day position is 25%. This is purely a technical rebound after a sharp drop. The previous crash was due to concentrated forced liquidation of leveraged longs, with hourly liquidations accounting for 98% of the entire market.
#With the October FOMC approaching, what changes remain if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes? First, consider the worst-case scenario: if you chase the price increase by going long, and then the price reverses while the funding rate remains positive, both unrealized losses and holding costs could squeeze your margin simultaneously. When I used to do risk control, seeing such data, I was accustomed to first calculating how much could be lost rather than how much could be gained.
This public market data comes from Hyperliquid: the contract with the highest absolute current funding rate is $XMR, with a positive rate of 0.0087% per hour, approximately 76% annualized, and a 24-hour price increase of 4.98%. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts.
My judgment is that this is more like a holding cost alert and should not be directly interpreted as a bearish signal. ⚠️ There are three risk points: if longs hold positions continuously, fees will accumulate; shorts, even though they receive fees, may still incur losses due to price increases; the approximately 76% annualized rate is just a conversion of the current rate, not a locked-in return, and changes in the funding rate, even turning negative, will alter the ledger.
For ordinary traders, a practical risk control habit I recommend is: before trading, include the stop-loss price, estimated funding fees during the holding period, and slippage all in the same maximum loss budget, rather than focusing only on the stop-loss price. For contracts with such high funding rates, how much stop-loss do you usually set per trade, and do you also factor in the funding fees?$BTC BTC is now at 80600, with more short orders hanging above than long orders below.
From the liquidation map, if it rises to 81384, about $152 million in short orders could be liquidated; if it falls to 79368, the total long orders are only $110 million, and they are farther away. One side is about 700 points away, the other more than 1200 points.
At the 81384 level, just the 100x short orders amount to 29.37 million, all high-leverage orders opened close to the current price. With low volume over the weekend, a few hundred points can sweep one side. Let's first see which side, 81384 or 79368, gets hit first.Next week is the "final battle" before the midterm elections: Federal Reserve meeting + Q3 earnings reports concentrated outbreak. A simple recap of the live broadcast views by Little Cat:
1. Federal Reserve: Most likely to remain unchanged. Although last month's inflation exceeded expectations, officials previously stated it "will not have a direct impact on the next meeting."
2. Trump/US-Iran: Iran has sent a second peace signal, already at its last gasp; Trump said "oil prices will fall from high levels after the war ends," the US-Iran farce may be coming to an end.
3. Focus on US stocks:
$AMZN: Regardless of earnings results, it is recommended to pay attention. The seasonal low from July to October and the rise from November to January next year come from the Christmas Q4 e-commerce peak season, currently at a short-term low.
$DELL: Squeezing NBIS space, Nvidia has cooperated with Dell; Dell is also one of the first companies to issue TRUMP children's account stock funds, optimistic in the short term after Trump's favorable policies take effect.
$SPCX: The "big rocket" is currently priced reasonably, with promising earnings and business direction, strongly related to TRUMP; tech stocks may have a significant rebound next week, can prepare to layout $BTC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Arthur Hayes sold another $2.73 million worth of ENA
Since yesterday, he has transferred a total of $28.81 million worth of coins to exchanges, converting back to 14.15 million USDC, with most already executed.
The list of assets sold is very telling: ETH, ENA, UNI, ETHFI, AERO, PENDLE — all altcoins he publicly favored in the previous round.
The timing is also notable. A few hours after his large sell-off, the market briefly dropped below 80,000, and now it has bounced back to the level where he sold.
There is something worth pondering here: after he sold, the price returned to the starting point. This means the drop was caused by liquidity being pulled out, not a narrative collapse.
When watching a big player reduce positions, the most valuable insight isn’t whether to follow the sell, but how the price moves after the sale. If within a week the price returns above his sell point, it indicates strong support; if it doesn’t, it means this is just the beginning.
I will be watching two things: how much position he still holds that hasn’t been converted, and whether the trading volume of these altcoins continues to shrink.一周前还在0.012附近徘徊，24小时内最高冲到0.32，随后回落至0.0498——$IRYS这轮走势把“逼空”两个字演绎得淋漓尽致。24小时跌幅53%，但相对低点仍翻了几倍。真正值得追问的不是涨了多少，而是谁在为最后一棒买单。 链上数据指向一个清晰逻辑：资金费率长期为负，空头越堆越多，价格突然拉升触发连环清算，有报告称24小时内超过2000万美元的空头仓位被强平，被迫买盘进一步推高价格。空头出清后买盘消失，价格自然回落。这是一场典型的流动性猎杀，而非基本面重估。 市场主流叙事停留在“逼空”层面，但可能低估了两件事。第一，小市值叠加极端负费率的组合本身就是结构性陷阱——做空看似顺势，实则是在为多头提供燃料，$IRYS的走势证明空头在错误的时间站在了错误的一边。第二，价格垂直拉升时追多，本质是在接最后一棒，因为推动上涨的是清算引擎而非持续买需。 更值得关注的是后续供给压力。有报告提到下一轮代币解锁即将到来，这意味着当前价格区间面临新增流通量的考验。0.045成为短期关键观察位：守住，则市场进入消化期；跌破，则波动远未结束。 可引用的判断：在负费率加小市值的结构里，空头不是交易者，而是燃料Meta delivered a clean revenue beat and constructive guidance; Tesla beat numbers but the stock was punished (high expectations + auto + heavy AI/robot spend). The real test arrives this week with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, Potentially, investors will focus less on the pure beats and more on AI/cloud demand, capex plans, and whether the massive spending is starting to show clearer returns.$BTC Bitcoin dipped 150 dollars to touch 85,000, then got slammed back below 80,000. Did this shake you up yesterday?
Now it's over 88,000, barely moving in 24 hours, but it hasn't been calm in between: it first surged close to 85,000, then selling pressure pushed it down, even briefly dropping below 80,000 during the session. Bulls were wiped out of 400 million dollars in a few hours. Finally, it was pulled back to 88,000. Honestly, this back-and-forth sweep is more exhausting than a one-way drop.
The capital flow isn't cooperating either; spot ETFs saw over 700 million outflows combined on Thursday and Friday, with Thursday marking the largest single-day outflow since June.
My current view: treat 80,000 as a contested level, not support. The area from 84,000 to 85,000 was just taken down, and I won't chase until it stabilizes above that. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ difficult now might be that even though customers are urging for deliveries, they still have to restrain the impulse to expand production.
SK Hynix previously discussed increasing capacity and maintaining capital expenditure discipline together. It doesn't sound very exciting, but I actually think this statement is worth remembering.早盘刷到这条链上数据时，我盯着屏幕愣了两秒。 八家交易所的储备一起涨，真的是大家在往里面冲吗？ 先把事实摆清楚：八家平台 tracked reserves 从约 2219 亿美元升到 2402 亿，账面多了 183.3 亿。但其中 158.5 亿只是价格抬上去的估值幻觉，真正新增的币只有 21203 枚 BTC，而且几乎全落在 Binance 一家。更微妙的是，Binance 自己增了 25155 枚，另外七家合计反而少了约 3950 枚。 这个结构比总数有意思得多。表面看是储备普涨，拆开看却是单点堆量、其余小幅流出，情绪上更像分歧阶段而不是启动阶段。价格贡献占了新增储备的八成以上，说明账面繁荣里真正的新买盘没那么多，场外资金还在试探，没有全面转向风险偏好。 偏多的解读也有：大额 BTC 往头部平台集中，往往意味着交易意愿在升温，一旦现货买盘跟上，ETH 和主流山寨容易先被带着修复，节奏上会是先龙头后扩散。但风险同样清楚：如果这些币是用来做对冲或准备卖出的，那储备上升反而是压力在积聚，价格一松动就容易变成抛压，山寨的弹性会先被抽走。 我自己的判断是，现在更像情绪从冷转温的过渡段，不是派$APR drew two strokes on today's 4H K-line, the first being a textbook false breakout.
At 05:30, the 15-minute candle surged from 0.0264 to 0.0318; at 06:00, the 1H candle touched 0.04399 with a volume of 9.03 million USD; by 07:00, it was pushed back to 0.0278, retreating 37% from the high, closing below the starting point of the rise. The second stroke happened after 10:00, this time without turning back. At 13:00, the 1H candle had a volume of 24.72 million USD, 42 times that of the same period the previous day. The highest was 0.0549, now around 0.040, having fallen more than 20% from the peak.
Three numbers: 24-hour volume is 2.18 billion APR; open interest rose from 870,000 USD to 2.54 million, nearly 3 times; the top 20 buy orders total less than 11,000 USD. OKX has no APR spot, only perpetual contracts.
CoinGecko market cap is 17.2 million, FDV 42.7 million, current price only 5.7% of the ATH $0.7396; Coinbase spot APR/USD also reached a high of 0.0548 today. The one-year unlock just passed on October 23, yet the price has risen from 0.0247 that day to now.
What’s rising is liquidity itself. Can you still chase a perpetual contract without spot backing?France’s 10-year yield reaching about 5.14% and moving above the US equivalent is notable because it puts fiscal credibility back into Europe’s market pricing. The 175 bp gap over German bonds shows investors are distinguishing sharply within the bloc.
Moody’s Aa3 affirmation offers some restraint, but its negative outlook leaves budget negotiations central to the next move. Spillover is possible if that distinction starts to weaken.
#FrenchBondYieldsTopUS [South Korea's Crypto Tax Postponed for the Fourth Time, Will the 22% Tax Rate Be Delayed Again?]
South Korea has finally relented this time. The cryptocurrency income tax originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, was reported by Korean media on October 25 to have been postponed again by a decision from the presidential office. Under the current plan, annual crypto asset gains exceeding 2.5 million KRW are subject to a maximum comprehensive tax rate of 22%.
This has already been delayed three times, and now it is being rescheduled again for a simple reason—the data systems of exchanges and tax authorities are not adequately prepared, and it is difficult to fully obtain transaction records from overseas platforms and DEXs. Moreover, the U.S. plans to join the crypto asset information exchange framework CARF only by 2029. If South Korea imposes taxes earlier, domestic users may face stricter information tracking, while cross-border transactions could suffer from enforcement gaps.
For Korean investors, the delay means temporarily less tax burden concerns. The most direct beneficiaries are local Korean traders. The presidential office's statement does not mean the legal amendments are finalized; the final outcome depends on the tax law review results in November. If the new law is officially passed, it will truly take effect; otherwise, the current arrangement for taxation in 2027 remains the benchmark. $BTC To pour some cold water first, when I see a large long position opened, I don't directly take it as a bullish signal. Core Trader 14 just opened a long on $HYPE with 10x leverage, holding 3,333 tokens, with a nominal value of about $253,700. My judgment is: the risk of this trade is more worth monitoring than the direction; a large amount doesn't mean the judgment is more accurate.
I have two concerns. First, 10x leverage amplifies timing errors: roughly, ignoring fees and keeping position size constant, if the price moves about 5% against the position, the loss would be about half of the initial margin; the actual liquidation price depends on the margin mode. Second, the monitoring only shows this long position, without explaining if there is any hedge or how long it is intended to be held. Translating the actions of a single address into a clear bullish conclusion lacks evidence. When facing a reverse market, the most painful situation is often those who add leverage following the direction but haven't figured out how to exit.
Of course, the other side might be right; my bearish bias doesn't mean I oppose every long. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and the pullback can be contained, I will reduce my suspicion of this long; these are my observation conditions, not a market that has already happened. Are you long or short? Regarding this 10x long position, which do you value more: the directional judgment or the ability to withstand adverse volatility, and why?$SOL
Last night SOL dipped to a low of 98.62, breaking below the 100 mark once again. It has climbed back now, with OKX currently at 101.91 and a 24-hour high of 102.77.
There's a small contrast: calculated from the start of today in UTC+8, it has risen by two points from 99.77 until now; but calculated on a rolling 24-hour basis, it actually dropped by 0.04% from the 102.31 opening. The same coin on the same day, but different calculation methods give opposite results, so now when I check the market, I first ask myself which method I'm using.
The only decent news is that Solana Company has been included in Hong Kong's seventh batch of strategic enterprises, the only blockchain company to enter this year. I mentioned this in my previous post, and looking back, the same applies — status does not equal funding.
The fee rate is still negative, and the open interest hasn't moved for days. The 100 level has been broken through several times but bounced back, indicating buyers below; after buying, it softens, indicating buyers are not in a hurry to push it up. It's grinding within this range, so I'll keep watching.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The previous full 1-hour period rose 14.92%, but the current price has already fallen below the low of that hour. According to OKX public data at 14:18 (UTC+8), $APR perpetual contract is quoted at 0.04293 USDT, with a rolling 24-hour increase of 66.78%, ranging from 0.02508 to 0.05485.
During that full hour, the price rose from 0.04559 to 0.05239, with a trading volume of approximately 22.87 million USDT, an increase of 33.18% compared to the previous period; the current price is now below its low of 0.04376. The rapid pullback after the peak indicates intensified high-level turnover, so the volume and price increase in a single hour should not be directly interpreted as a trend continuation. The total perpetual contract trading volume over the last 24 full hours is about 71.32 million USDT.
OKX currently only offers APR-USDT-SWAP, with no spot cross-confirmation. The open interest snapshot is about 57.26 million APR (approximately 2.47 million USD), with a funding rate of about +0.0378%; a positive funding rate increases the cost of long positions, but a single-point open interest cannot determine the direction of new positions.
If in the following full hour the price rises back above 0.04376, with trading volume recovering and open interest no longer expanding rapidly, I will continue to observe for recovery; if it remains below this level, with increased volume and still high open interest, then be cautious of concentrated leverage withdrawals.
* NFA, DYOR$BTC
Peter Schiff says the next support for BTC is at 75,000. Killa says the higher low after the weekend breakout is holding above 74,000. bitbank says the range between 80,000 and 85,000 will continue before the FOMC. Three price points, with a difference of 11,000 from lowest to highest, and everyone seems quite confident.
I tested it myself: OKX current price is 80,657, 24-hour high is 81,070, low is 79,220. This morning the news even shouted a breakthrough of 81,000, but now it has already pulled back over 400 from that morning high. It's still more than 6,000 dollars away from Schiff's 75,000.
I used to like drawing support levels too, but after drawing many, I found these lines are mainly to boost one's own confidence. When it really falls, there's still a 1,000-dollar gap between 75,000 and 74,000, and no one knows if it will hold. I did take a closer look at the midterm election data: in the past four election cycles, BTC dropped 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% respectively, each time less severe than the last. Voting is on November 3.
So I just listen to the price points and keep my position more honest than my words. Around 80,000 I won't move; I'll let it choose its direction first.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 韩国总统办公室在10月25日决定，推迟原定于2027年1月1日生效的加密货币所得税。这已经是这项政策自2020年立法引入以来的第四次推迟，原本的生效时间已从2022年一路延后。 按照原计划，韩国将对虚拟资产转让或出借的年度收益，在扣除250万韩元基础免税额后，征收22% 的税（含地方所得税）。但这一纸政令，让一切再次回到了原点。 为什么又推迟了？ 表面上的理由是“税务基础设施不完善”。但更深层的原因，指向了一个被反复提及的结构性矛盾：公平性。 韩国执政党议员Park Min-gyu提出的修正案，直接将征税时间与OECD的加密资产报告框架（CARF）挂钩。核心逻辑是：美国要到2029年才会加入CARF，在此之前，韩国税务机关无法从美国交易所获取韩国用户的交易数据。如果韩国在2027年就开征，那么只在韩国本土交易所交易的用户将被“精准征税”，而通过海外交易所（尤其是美国平台）交易的投资者则可以继续游离在监管之外。这会造成事实上的税负不公，也是反对声音中最有力的论据。 另一个无法忽视的因素是民意与政治压力。韩国政府官员明确表示，这项政策“影响多达1