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Outflows have turned into inflows, but Binance's accounts are still not balanced.
The question raised in the afternoon article has a preliminary answer tonight: According to Binance CEO Teng's own data, in the 46 hours since withdrawals reopened, users withdrew a total of $10.97 billion and deposited $5.69 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $5.28 billion.
The turning point was around 11 AM Beijing time today: in that hour, deposits exceeded withdrawals by about $10 million. Teng said the trend has started to turn positive. DefiLlama's 24-hour data also matches this: Binance had a net inflow of $2.3 billion in the past 24 hours, ranking first among all exchanges, far surpassing second-place Bitfinex's $280 million.
But don't interpret the turning point as the case being closed: the 7-day net outflow is still around $11.8 billion, and one day's inflow can't erase a week's deficit. Teng also only dared to say at the Hong Kong FinTech Week today that the hourly flow is "basically normalized," with 95% of stolen assets recovered, and the remaining 5% are low-liquidity small coins still being exchanged with OTC dealers.
So the narrative needs to be adjusted: it's not over yet, just the most panic-stricken period has passed, money is starting to flow back, but to truly balance the accounts, it depends on whether inflows can continue for several days in a row. #加密行业协同守护资产安全
Recently, security incidents have intensified, and the industry is shifting from passive risk exposure to a proactive defense model combining regulatory constraints and full-chain interception.
South Korean regulators are rapidly tightening controls: The Financial Services Commission plans to increase the proportion of exchange customer assets held in cold wallets from 80% to 99%, leaving only 1% in hot wallets to cover daily withdrawals; leading platforms like Upbit and Bithumb have been collectively summoned, requiring enhanced transaction monitoring and suspicious activity reporting. While security upgrades are underway, withdrawal processing efficiency may decline.
CORE theft case sees phased progress: The network recovered 68.146 million tokens from the attacker’s address via a hard fork, accounting for 70.2% of the total stolen amount. The operation did not roll back transactions or increase token supply. However, this move has sparked governance controversy—on-chain recovery capability is backed by relatively centralized block production and governance rights.
Binance theft case shows significant results from industry-wide coordinated interception: The platform, together with stablecoin issuers and law enforcement, has frozen approximately $3 billion in related assets, greatly increasing the difficulty of laundering stolen funds across chains.
In the short term, the combination of security incidents and interest rate hike expectations suppresses the market, with BTC fluctuating between $76,000 and $78,500; in the long term, the normalization of security systems reduces institutional entry concerns. Users still need to properly manage private keys and contract authorization controls. $BTC $ETH Nearly 100,000 people liquidated, mainstream coins collectively under pressure, but the chain is quietly "bottom fishing"? The market seems calm today, but there are hidden currents.
BTC: $77,263 (-0.18%)
Geopolitical risks combined with cautious sentiment ahead of the US midterm elections caused Bitcoin to break below the 77,000 mark, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 12%. Under macro pressure, the short-term direction is unclear.
ETH: $2,283 (+0.57%)
1.37 million ETH are queued for staking on-chain, but October ETF net outflows exceeded $1.2 billion—staking is increasing on-chain, while traditional funds are retreating. The ETH/BTC rate is approaching a three-month low.
XRP: $1.283 (+2.85%)
7,934 new wallets were added in a single day, marking the sixth highest this year, but Coinbase's US premium dropped to -0.16%, and ETF inflows slowed to the lowest this year. On-chain activity is hot while capital sentiment is cold, with $1.25 as a key support.
The current market shows a divergence of "on-chain heat, capital cold"—staking and wallet data are growing, but ETFs and traditional buying are shrinking. Is this divergence a bottom signal or a liquidity trap?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ZEC $CRCL issue USDC, users deposit dollars to exchange for USDC, and Circle uses this money to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest. So the reserve interest of USDC has always belonged to Circle. But HYPE actually snatched this piece of meat away.
In August 2026, HYPE created a framework called AQAv2. The rule is simple: if you want USDC to become the main margin and quoting asset on HYPE, you have to give me about 90% of the interest earned by this batch of USDC on-chain. Circle had to agree to keep tens of billions of shares. If they didn't agree? The money would all be converted to USDT.
Today, the second payment was delivered on schedule. 15.92 million USDC. That's 9.2% more than the first payment on October 3 (14.58 million USDC). At the current price, this money can directly burn about 190,000 HYPE.
This has made HYPE the only major L1 that directly profits from USDC reserves. With the current stock, the daily income exceeds 500,000 USD.
All this money is used for buyback and burn, creating a crazy flywheel: the larger the USDC stock → the more protection fees paid → the more HYPE burned. The Nasdaq 100 has broken below a key support level, with 4-hour highs and lows continuously moving downward. The sideways movement around 28100 only indicates a temporary easing of selling pressure; the downtrend is not over yet.
The midterm elections are a short-term turning point.
The market has already priced in the Democrats winning the House of Representatives. The Senate outcome will determine the strength of the rebound; a divided Congress helps restrain fiscal expansion, easing interest rate pressure and reducing policy uncertainty.
Historically, after election results are finalized, the US stock market usually benefits from the fading uncertainty, but the economy and earnings remain the ultimate pricing drivers.
Before the results are announced, the Nasdaq maintains a weak consolidation; once the results are clear, a likely oversold rebound will occur, but an immediate reversal is unlikely.
27800-28000 is the current support zone; holding this level could lead to a rebound to 28400-28800. Failure to reclaim 28800 carries the risk of retesting 27600.
BTC will follow the US stock market's recovery but with weaker resilience than the Nasdaq, expected to fluctuate between 76000-80000. Only if the Nasdaq breaks back above 28800 and BTC breaks out above 80000 with volume will risk appetite truly recover.
The election results are more likely to trigger a rebound but cannot temporarily change the weak structure of the Nasdaq and BTC. In short, consolidation is still needed. Volatility will be high this week, continuously testing bottom support!The positive news has landed, but the coin price dropped first.
NEAR's House of Stake passed HSP-029 yesterday with 99.9% support, lowering the annual issuance cap from 2.5% to 1.6%. It is estimated that about 11.8 million fewer tokens will be issued over 24 months, and the staking yield will also drop from 5.2% to 3.3%.
But this positive effect will take time to truly take effect: first, a 14-day veto period, plus a 90-day grace period.
So today's market does not recognize this long-term promise at all: NEAR is currently priced at $3.879, down 4.88% in 24 hours, ranging from 3.744 to 4.113, with the low point right beneath.
During the same period, BTC at $77,472 only dropped 0.56%, ETH at $2,288 basically stayed flat; NEAR is falling on its own, not dragged down by the broader market.
Wait and watch, don't chase; only when it stands back at 4.113 can it be considered recovered, breaking below 3.744 means weakness continues.
The positive effect of reducing inflation will only take effect after 90 days. Will you buy now, or wait for it to stabilize first?
$NEAR
#InflationReduction #MidtermElections$ZEC whales are acting too impatiently, directly scooping up $3.8 million worth of spot on-chain, then immediately opening 8,000 ZEC leveraged long positions.
This kind of spot bottoming combined with contract short squeeze tactics clearly aims to stir things up before next week's protocol upgrade.
Currently, the price is firmly stuck at the 1200 support zone, with a bunch of shorts stubbornly holding on. Big money is forcibly building positions at this level; this batch of shorts is very likely the ready kindling—just a slight push upward can trigger liquidations and send it soaring.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇#US stocks and gold & silver fall sharply in sync, safe-haven fund flows diverge US stocks and gold & silver weaken simultaneously, with traditional safe-haven logic temporarily failing. The core reason is the rise in real interest rates combined with cross-market deleveraging. The market is repricing the Fed's hawkish bias, boosting the appeal of the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields, causing funds to no longer prioritize gold but shift to dollar cash and short-term Treasuries.
Behind the market moves are forced margin liquidations; leveraged accounts sell gold and silver to cover losses from the stock market, causing risk assets and precious metals to plunge together, leading to a clear divergence in safe-haven funds. Silver usually falls more deeply due to its industrial attributes, amplifying volatility.
In the short term, it depends on whether U.S. Treasury yields can peak and retreat. If rates continue to rise, the pressure on gold and silver will persist; only if rate hike expectations cool down will gold resume its hedging role. Such simultaneous declines often indicate liquidity stress outweighing geopolitical safe-haven demand, with market volatility likely to remain elevated. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SUI SUI's recent unlock dumped $39 million, yet the market barely reacted.
The $0.9 mark stubbornly holds, with spot buyers swallowing the selling pressure whole. What's more interesting is that 70% of the tokens are still locked in staking, so the circulating supply outside is already limited.
Short sellers have to pay interest daily. Given the current market, I'm more inclined to side with the bulls. If anyone really wants to break through $0.9, it probably won't be that easy.
#SUI
$SUI
👇$DOGE Yesterday was Doge Day, the community was celebrating Kabosu's birthday with posts and offline gatherings, the atmosphere was great. But what about the price? Around 0.074, nearly 90% down from the all-time high of 0.7316. To go from 0.074 back to 0.10 requires a 35.7% increase, sounds hopeful? But the problem is, for many people, 0.10 is just "losing a little less."
Big holders are selling, small holders are buying
There’s a data point that made me uneasy. Santiment’s data shows addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE started reducing their holdings by about 120 million DOGE since Thursday, which is roughly 8.8 million USD at current prices. On the other side, small addresses holding 100,000 to 1 million DOGE are buying, but the amount they bought is about 20 million DOGE less than what was sold. Big holders are exiting, retail holders are entering, this picture is familiar to me. It doesn’t necessarily mean a drop, but at least it shows that the group holding the most coins is not accumulating now.
The technical outlook isn’t good either
The 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross. The last time this signal appeared was in November last year, when DOGE was around 0.18, and 30 days later it dropped to 0.143, down 21%. Of course, a death cross doesn’t mean it will drop tomorrow; it just indicates that the past seven weeks have been weaker than the past nine months. But combined with the big holders reducing their positions, the direction doesn’t look good. How much remains after deducting all costs from a $100 profit on a trade?
Book profit does not equal real net profit.
At least four cost factors need attention in trading:
1. Fees: Opening and closing positions may incur fees.
2. Slippage: The actual execution price may deviate from expectations.
3. Funding rate: In applicable perpetual contracts, holding positions may generate funding costs or income.
4. Other fees: Such as applicable exchange, cross-chain, or withdrawal fees.
Assuming a gross profit of 100 USDT on a trade, with total related costs of 3.50 USDT, the net profit is 96.50 USDT.
This is just a calculation example; actual results depend on specific trading conditions.
It is recommended to separately record gross profit, fees, slippage, funding rate, and net profit, then review weekly or monthly.
What truly matters is not how much you made on paper, but how much remains after costs and whether this advantage can be sustained long-term.
When you record trades, do you separately track each cost item?
Next article: Why can high win-rate strategies still lose money in the long run?#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
October ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5, exceeding expectations, with the price index remaining high at 75.2. Economic resilience and inflation stickiness coexist. The current market pricing for a 25bp rate hike in December has reached 72%-85%. The nonfarm payroll report released at 21:30 Beijing time on November 6 will be the core validation point for policy direction.
The market consensus expects an increase of 60,000-65,000 jobs (previous value 29,000), with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Neutral data best aligns with the Fed's observation path, keeping the rate hike probability basically stable; an increase of over 100,000 jobs will further solidify rate hike expectations and suppress risk assets; an increase below 30,000 could ease tightening expectations and drive a market rebound.
The crypto market is currently consolidating and bottoming: BTC's core range is $76,000-$80,000, with $76,000 as a key short-term support; only holding above $80,000 will repair the downtrend structure; ETH 2250 is the short-term lifeline. In the past 24 hours, BTC long liquidations exceeded $200 million, but open interest changes were limited, leverage rotation has not been fully cleared, and the fear and greed index has dropped to 26, entering the panic zone.
Volatility on nonfarm payroll night can be amplified; avoid subjective data predictions, prioritize risk control, and do not heavily bet on a single outcome.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BZ $CL The US-Iran situation has eased over the past two days, but can a ceasefire really happen? Will oil prices continue to surge?
In the past two days, there have been clear signs of "easing" in the US-Iran situation: indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar have been intensively advancing, and Iran has proposed a "two-day plan," stating that if the US first lifts the blockade, unfreezes assets, and relaxes sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened the next day; Trump and Pence publicly stated that "progress is good" and they are "not in a hurry to restart strikes," causing oil prices to plummet more than 7% in a single day.
However, looking closely, this seems more like a state where negotiations and limited military actions coexist, rather than a true ceasefire. The US military just carried out a defensive strike on Qeshm Island, Iranian officials clearly said the agreement is far from reached, will not accept "excessive demands," and warned of a "more decisive response." Netanyahu is also pushing to resume strikes immediately after the election. Core disagreements remain huge on nuclear programs, sanction intensity, and control of the strait; previous memorandums of understanding quickly became invalid, and the trust foundation is very weak.
Currently, the only possibility is short-term localized easing, such as temporarily opening the strait in exchange for some economic concessions, which is possible, especially as the US is in the middle of midterm elections and war is unpopular; but the probability of a comprehensive, lasting ceasefire is low, and it is more likely to cool down for a while and then resume bargaining after the election.
Regarding oil prices, Brent is currently around $100, having fallen from above $117 earlier. If negotiations truly succeed and the strait remains open, prices are expected to decline further; but if negotiations break down and military actions escalate, causing serious obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz again, oil prices could easily surge back to $120 or even higher.Conclusion first: Today is the U.S. midterm election voting day, and $BTC slid from 78,005 to a 24-hour low of 76,360 (14:10), breaking below 77,000. CoinDesk's judgment today is straightforward—Bitcoin is breaking the midterm election pattern since 2014. Three numbers: ① Breadth: Among OKX's 249 USDT perpetual contracts with trading volume over 1 million USD, 72 rose and 174 fell, median -1.16%; $NEAR dropped from 4.119 to a low of 3.743 within 24 hours, down 9.1%. ② Open interest: OKX's total BTC contract open interest fell from 3.746 billion USD on 11/2 to 3.687 billion, down 1.6%—this is a volume contraction, not an increase in positions. ③ Funding rate has been locked at the 0.01%/8h floor, longs are still paying, no one is squeezing shorts. So this is not a safe-haven buy of Bitcoin, but deleveraging first hitting altcoins. The regulatory side hasn't helped either: CFTC Chair Selig is pushing for unified federal exchange regulation after Binance's 6.3 billion USD hack, but a divided Congress keeps stalling the bill. I won't give a direction, just waiting for two signals: whether ETF net inflows can recover, and whether 76,360 can hold. The ballots don't take the blame, the wallets do. A confirmed pattern: $BTC usually drops sharply right after the US midterm elections but then experiences a strong reversal
2014: −50% in 71 days, +24.5% one year later
2018: −50% in 38 days, +44.9% one year later
2022: −25% in 13 days, +92.3% one year later
2026 will continue to test this#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #苹果FY2026 Q4 earnings: Revenue far exceeds expectations, profit concerns emerge🔥
Apple delivered a superficially impressive report card: Q4 revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year, iPhone revenue surged 17% to $57.6 billion, both revenue and phone business beating market expectations, with EPS reaching $2.10. But it should be noted that about $0.05 of the EPS came from a one-time tariff refund, which is an unsustainable gain.
The biggest negative is the guidance for next quarter: revenue is expected to maintain steady growth of 7%-10%, but gross margin guidance is only 45%-46%, significantly below market expectations. The two main culprits are rising prices of storage chips and cloud service costs brought by Apple AI.
On one hand, the new iPhone cycle drives revenue growth; on the other, AI investments and rising component prices continue to erode the profit moat. Apple has proven it can sell products at a premium and with quality, but whether it can maintain its proud high gross margin in the AI era is the core question the market faces next. #USStocks #Apple #EarningsAnalysisThe negative impact of the hacker incident should be mostly over for now, but the trend is still not ideal.
The USDCNY exchange rate has rebounded to 6.67, but the price for USDT withdrawals has dropped to around 6.61. There is a clear outflow of USDT funds.
The only good news is that USDC funds are flowing in, possibly indicating a shift of funds from USDT to USDC.
The total market cap of USDT+USDC is still declining.
Next, all eyes are on the midterm elections.Before the US stock market opens, this sudden sharp V-shaped rebound has made many brothers feel like the bull market is quickly returning, and they're ready to go all in? Hold on, don't get ahead of yourself. Look at the contract data; the scheme behind this rally is extremely deep. The manipulative whales are clearly setting a trap!
$BTC is currently priced at 77,500, having surged straight up from the bottom at 76,260. It looks strong, but looking at the hourly long-short ratio, it has risen to 2.81, indicating that as soon as the price rebounds, retail bulls rush in. The resistance at 78,000 is right ahead. The main players have no reason to push through with such heavy leverage, so it's highly likely there will be a shakeout downward.
Looking at $ETH, currently at 2,288, the long-short ratio is also as high as 2.46. The funding rate keeps hovering near zero, showing that the bulls are extremely conflicted. This kind of momentum-following trade will fall faster than anyone else if the market softens even slightly.
The most dangerous is definitely $SOL, currently at 93.1, the weakest rebound in the entire market. But look at its 4-hour long-short ratio, which has absurdly reached 3.50. What does this mean? A bunch of bulls are bottom-fishing with the heaviest leverage and the smallest gains. If the main players aren't using it as a sacrificial lamb, who else can they target?
In summary, liquidity is poor before the US market opens. This rally is very likely a bull trap. Don't rush to chase the highs; be careful that the US market might open and hit you with a big squeeze.
The US market opens at 10:30 soon. Do you think this rally will continue to squeeze shorts or will it turn around and crash? Do you have any positions now?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching? The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been approved! Oil prices plummeted 7%, but why didn't Bitcoin rise? Brothers, there is a major geopolitical development. Al Jazeera reports that Washington has approved the draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding. According to the previously disclosed 14-point framework, the core contents include: immediate and permanent cessation of all frontline military actions, complete lifting of the maritime blockade by the US within 30 days, commitment to end unilateral sanctions on Iran, release of frozen assets, and Iran maintaining its nuclear program status quo while accepting uranium enrichment dilution. The market reaction was extremely intense. WTI crude oil plunged more than 7% in a single day, directly breaking below the $100 mark; Brent crude fell to around $105. The transmission chain of the oil price collapse is very clear: energy costs decline, inflation expectations cool down, and the December rate hike bet fell from over 80% to 72%. But a key divergence appeared: Bitcoin did not follow the rise. Oil prices dropped 7%, gold and silver rebounded over 2%, while BTC only slightly fell 0.06%, continuing to struggle around $76,000. Why? First, the wound from the Binance hack has not healed. The $6.3 billion hack incident is still unfolding, with $643 million flowing out of spot ETFs on October 30 alone; liquidity has not yet recovered. The geopolitical good news is at the macro level, but the crypto circle's own liquidity is still bleeding. Second, this is an intention, not a finalized deal. The memorandum requires both sides to negotiate a final agreement within 60 days; each step—sanctions relief, nuclear issue handling, Strait navigation restoration—has potential for back-and-forth.The first report card of Apple's new CEO has become one of the biggest topics tonight in Orbit: ranked second on the topic page, with 1,961,400 views and 829 posts shown in the Creator Center. The earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the discussion has already reached conclusions. Before the earnings report, I want to clarify three things; if you can't distinguish them, you won't understand the report when it comes out. First, guidance habits are history, not guarantees. One post in Orbit bet 16,000xp on the earnings beating expectations, partly because Apple has historically liked to give conservative guidance, and earnings often beat consensus expectations. Big tech giants generally have a tradition of managing expectations. This is the post's viewpoint, which I am relaying, not a conclusion. Habits can be referenced, but habits are not contracts: management's expectation management happens every year, but beating expectations is not guaranteed annually. Taking habits as conclusions is like applying the past script directly to the new CEO's first report card. Second, beating expectations does not equal stock price increase. The same post also hedged: it didn't bet the maximum amount, indicating that funds are wary of risks—rising storage costs, slowing iPhone growth, and possibly weak guidance next quarter. The post reserved nearly 30% for underperformance, with a floating loss of -14.06xp at the time. Earnings have two layers: this quarter's numbers and next quarter's guidance. Numbers beating expectations but weak guidance can still cause the stock price to fall; mediocre numbers but strong guidance can still push the stock price up. Looking only at the first layer is like only reading half the earnings report. Third, let's clarify what counts as misreading. The most useful before the earnings report #迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局
The boss has something to say
Marvell (MRVL) announced an all-stock deal to acquire Lumentum (LITE), with an implied enterprise value of about $115 billion. Each LITE share can be exchanged for 4.5 MRVL shares, and the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028. On the same day, Lumentum released its earnings report early, showing revenue growth of 136.5% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations.
I think this is a very smart "David swallowing Goliath" capital move. Previously, the market worried that Marvell didn't have enough cash, but now it’s a direct stock swap, spending no cash at all. The comments hit the mark, combining DSP and laser transceivers to vertically integrate the most critical bottleneck, and the market will give a premium. This is the strongest binding on the hardware side of AI computing interconnection.
On the market, LITE rose 3.09%, xLITE rose 3.08%, and MRVL rose 2.67%. Capital gave positive feedback.
Bitcoin is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, watching to see if it can hold above 80,000. If it can't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the fall; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Cross River, a bank infrastructure provider, has moved its tokenized lending platform onto Arbitrum One.
First, note that this is not a simple deployment. The platform uses embedded wallet solutions provided by ZeroDev, with Offchain's enterprise service team responsible for architecture design. The division of labor is clear: Cross River provides the assets and lending business, ZeroDev solves the "no need to manage private keys" barrier, and Offchain builds the enterprise-level architecture. This combination targets institutional clients, not retail miners.
Mechanically, tokenized lending turns loan assets into on-chain certificates, allowing funders and borrowers to interact directly via wallets. The embedded wallet is key: clients don't need to understand mnemonic phrases, making the experience closer to online banking. Choosing Arbitrum One is also reasonable, with low settlement costs and security inherited from Ethereum.
The judgment is twofold. For $ARB, this represents real incremental demand on the demand side, driving on-chain gas consumption and lending scale, not just airdrop expectations; for $ETH, it is an indirect benefit to the L2 settlement layer, with smaller elasticity but aligned direction.
However, a deployment announcement alone does not equal a trend. What really needs monitoring is whether there is actual loan volume on-chain afterward—if the lending balance on this chain remains near zero after a few months, it is just a branding move.
One thought-provoking question remains: when banks' lending businesses truly run on-chain, will institutional rates and DeFi rates gradually converge? "Just wait for the next black swan. Bitcoin will collapse." But seriously, look at what this market has already faced: • Iran war and geopolitical uncertainty. • CLARITY Act legislative setbacks. • Federal Reserve rate uncertainty. • US Treasury yields reaching elevated levels. • Strategy reportedly selling 6,916 BTC. • COLDCARD security concerns. • Ledger reseller device compromises. • Binance security incident and reported multibillion-dollar losses. And Bitcoin is still standing. The interestLooking back at my history, I really want to punch myself twice. Falling into the same trap four times in a row—if I had put that persistence into working out, I'd have become Schwarzenegger by now.
From the end of October until now, I've been stubbornly holding onto the US stock token Sandisk (SNDK). The average price kept dropping from 1231, then 1198, 1153, and finally 1095. All were 75x full-position long trades, and the outcome was neat and tidy—four battles, four liquidations, all wiped out.
A hardcore review of this "textbook-level giveaway":
First, too much obsession. Always thought US tech stocks would rebound, buying more as it fell—classic case of catching a falling knife on the left side.
Second, ignoring liquidity. The token's depth before market open was extremely poor; even slight selling pressure could break the defense line.
Third, maxed out leverage. 75x full position leaves no room for error; a single pin prick can take you out.
The lesson learned from these four liquidations: stubbornly fighting against the trend will definitely lead to losing everything.
$SNDK #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 PLTR's revenue surged 96%, but the stock price fell—how much is AI software really worth?
We were just discussing PLTR's earnings yesterday, and today's results are indeed impressive.
Q3 revenue reached $2.31 billion, up 96% year-over-year; U.S. commercial business revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business for the first time.
This is something I am quite optimistic about.
Many used to think Palantir mainly relied on government contracts, but now more and more companies are willing to pay for its AI software, and commercialization is generating solid revenue.
The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to around $8.53 billion.
However, after the earnings release, the stock price still dropped about 3% in after-hours trading.
I think the market's concerns are understandable.
PLTR's valuation is already very high, and expectations for its growth keep rising. Even with nearly doubled revenue, the stock price may not be willing to continue climbing.
Another detail: the total value of new contracts signed in the U.S. commercial business this quarter grew only 11% year-over-year, a significant slowdown compared to the 153% increase last quarter.
Of course, quarterly contract data can fluctuate and shouldn't be used alone to judge if the business has peaked.
I remain optimistic about the commercialization of AI software, but at PLTR's current price, it really needs to keep delivering very strong results.
If a company's revenue can nearly double, how high a valuation would you be willing to pay for it? Today could be an important moment for Bitcoin as the US midterm elections bring political uncertainty and renewed attention to the future of crypto regulation. 📊 Three Things to Watch: 1️⃣ Political Uncertainty Changes in congressional control could influence the direction of US crypto legislation and regulatory discussions. Uncertainty around the results may increase short-term volatility. 2️⃣ Historical Performance Bitcoin reportedly gained an average of approximately 54% during the 12 month#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
JPMorgan's latest midterm election simulation suggests closely watching macro turning signals afterward.
Currently, the highest probability is a Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate, with market concerns over AI regulation and data center restrictions potentially triggering a sell-off in AI concept stocks.
However, JPMorgan judges that bills are unlikely to override a presidential veto, recommending buying tech stocks on pullbacks, noting fiscal deficit reduction, pressure on long-term bond yields, related executives possibly facing investigations, and intensified macro struggles, so caution with positions is advised.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $BONK
From 14:00 to 21:00, BONK climbed from 0.000002735 to 0.00000287, up 4.9%. Looking at the 24-hour chart, it's still in the red, down -0.9%.
The cause was that Bonk Guy's message: buy the dip, saying Robinhood Chain might be the next spark for on-chain speculation. An old meme pump call, I usually treat it as noise.
This time the volume rose gradually. 120,000 contracts at 15:00, 180,000 at 18:00, 480,000 at 20:00, 460,000 at 21:00. Slowly increasing, not a sudden spike and then fade.
The fee rate is moving inversely, -0.0068%, annualized just over negative seven percent, shorts are paying out. Price going up while shorts pay means this rally isn't driven by leveraged longs.
The pool is ridiculously thin, with $1.79 million in holdings and $1.2 million spot turnover in one day. If the Robinhood narrative really comes in, the order book won't move first.
Those calling the pump never take responsibility for your stop loss. I, who scrutinize fee rates with a magnifying glass, chasing this 5% rebound, might easily become someone else's liquidity with a slip of the hand.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Whenever a major market shock happens, I look for the assets showing the strongest resilience. This time, the interesting story is the growing demand for self-custody and assets backed by tangible value. 🥇 XAUT — Gold-Backed Exposure XAUT is moving alongside gold, with the $3,900+ area attracting renewed buying according to the cited price levels. During periods of financial uncertainty, tokenized gold can attract attention from investors seeking exposure to physical gold. ⚡ ZEC — Self-Custody $HYPE 日线RSI14约58.1，动能仍站在50上方；$ZEC 两小时内连涨1.1%、成交量较前两小时放大183.9%；而ARB近24小时跌2.7%，同期$ETH 涨0.8%，相对落后约3.5个百分点。三个方向，三种节奏，市场正在用成交量而非价格喊话。 先看最容易被误读的$HYPE。短线回撤至86附近，但RSI没有跌破中轴，说明这更像一次进行中的调整，而不是动能彻底熄火。把"回调"和"动能衰竭"混为一谈，是当前最常见的认知偏差——仅凭24小时1.9%的跌幅就给趋势下结论，样本太薄。真正的信号在于：只要RSI守住50上方，长周期上涨结构就未被破坏；一旦失守，才是叙事切换的确认点。 $ZEC 的看点不在涨幅，而在成交。从1237.73回升至1262区域，约2.0%的修复本身不算惊艳，但连续两小时上涨配合183.9%的成交量放大，说明这次反弹有真实交易支撑，而非零散报价拼出的假象。深跌之后的这种量价配合，比单纯的百分比更值得跟踪——它是"反应"与"趋势"之间的分水岭。 $SKHYNIX 则提供了另一种样本：从1076.08抬升至近1093，高出低点约1.7%，确实收回了一部分失地，韧性优$ETH
Evening quick news in one sentence: BlackRock moved 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH into Coinbase Prime, worth $702 million.
As usual, this is considered a bearish signal; big money moving assets to exchanges usually means looking for buyers. The first reaction in the group was one word: drop.
I'm looking at ETH's 1-hour chart. At 12:00, volume was 1,143; at 20:00, 7,699; at 21:00, not even finished yet, already 10,041. The price pushed from 2257 to 2308.9, exactly the 24-hour high.
The fee rate remains the baseline 0.01%, not raised a penny. Open interest is 1.465 billion, slightly more than in the afternoon, not a flood of new money, nor is anyone fleeing.
The 63,600 ETH moved is worth 146 million; ETH spot trading volume in one day is 249 million. If it were really dumped, the market wouldn't be this quiet.
So I lean towards this being a custody transfer, not a liquidation warning.
A real signal would be when the fee rate rises above 0.03% and open interest jumps—that's when bulls are squeezing in. With the current volume and price, it looks more like shorts are cutting losses below 2300.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 SAME PRICE, TWO COINS, TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORIES!
$HUMA is bleeding while $IRYS is climbing. Both are trading around $0.02, but their charts tell a very different story.
$HUMA: Down 21.8% in 24 hours, trading near its low of $0.02108. Buyers are still struggling to show strength.
$IRYS: Up 11.4%, holding near $0.02211 after reaching $0.02345. Bulls have momentum, but is the rally running out of steam?
Which chart would you check first — $HUMA or $IRYS?
#HUMA #IRYS
#DailyOrbit Core Risk Warning
1. $75,728 (50-week moving average) is the "final anchor point" of the mid-term structure: holding above it for seven consecutive weeks is the only evidence that the bull market structure remains intact. A daily close below it confirms a breakdown, with the daily-level downside target directly pointing to $71,485, lacking effective buffers in between.
2. The funding rate stands at the 100th percentile over 90 days, representing the most fragile microstructure currently: the "volume" of leverage has been cleaned out, but the remaining longs are paying the highest cost. If $78,219 cannot be reclaimed, the risk of these longs shifting from "holding hard" to "passive stop-loss" is very real.
3. The "split" among whales is more noteworthy than "increased holdings": a total position of 3.03 million coins is a positive signal, but the shift to net short on the contract side and the rotation into ETH indicates that large funds have not formed a consensus bullish outlook. "Spot accumulation" and "directional betting" are two different things.
4. The single-day outflow of 643 million from ETFs is a systemic signal: the Binance incident was a catalyst, but the outflow scale (with no product net inflows) far exceeds the short-term impact of the event itself, suggesting institutional risk appetite was already weakening before the event.
5. This week is packed with macro events, requiring volume confirmation for direction: the midterm elections (11/3) and nonfarm payrolls (11/6) could both catalyze a break of the $76K–$78K range, but before these events unfold, any heavy directional positions are bets on data rather than trading structure.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ On January 3rd, the U.S. midterm election voting day officially begins. 230 million eligible voters across the country will decide the fate of 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. But if you just open the market software now, you might notice a counterintuitive fact: the market pricing for a "Democratic win" is already close to 90%. Kalshi traders give the Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and 74% for the Senate; multiple models show figures of 90% and 83%. In other words, a "Democratic win" is not news—it's the "Republicans holding on" that is. The midterms elect Congress, not the President. The so-called "Trump win" actually means the Republicans holding both chambers—currently both are controlled by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of 4 Senate seats (51 seats for majority; the Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote at 50-50) and 3 House seats (218 seats for majority) to flip control. Polls show this is not an easy task: Trump's approval rating is 38%-39%, disapproval 55%-60%; the generic ballot has Democrats leading by 6-12 percentage points. Historically, midterms almost always punish the party in power. But don't forget another fact: in the last 6 major elections, 5 times polls overestimated the Democrats. 2016, 2020, and 2024 all had surprises. A 74% Senate probability does not equal the final result. Tonight, focus on three numbers. The first number: the last few Senate seats.
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 我认为，这次Palantir的问题不是AI需求不足，而是市场对未来增长的要求已经高得惊人。 先看财报数据： 1️⃣ Q3营收达到23.13亿美元，同比增长96%，环比增长20%，首次突破20亿美元。 2️⃣ 美国商业业务营收达到9.84亿美元，同比增长148%，首次超过美国政府业务。 3️⃣ 调整后每股收益0.44美元，超过市场预期的0.41美元。 4️⃣ 公司上调全年营收指引，预计2026年全年营收增长91%。 单看这些数据，Palantir交出了一份相当强势的成绩单。 但为什么股价反而下跌？ 关键在于一个容易被忽略的数据：订单增长。 Q3总合同价值（TCV）达到29.18亿美元，同比增长仅6%，而上一季度增速为49%。 其中，美国商业业务合同价值同比增长11%，相比上一季度超过153%的增速，出现明显放缓。 这才是市场真正担心的地方。 营收反映的是过去已经兑现的业务，而新增订单和合同储备，更多决定未来几个季度的增长空间。 当营收还在高速增长，但新增订单增速明显放缓时，投资者自然会担心这种增长能否持续。 再加上Palantir本身🇮🇷 Iran’s proposed 2-day Hormuz reopening plan is creating market optimism, but it’s not guaranteed.
The plan depends on the US meeting several conditions, including lifting the naval blockade, unfreezing funds and easing sanctions.
Oil reacted fast, with WTI and Brent dropping over 6% as geopolitical risk premiums eased.
For crypto, lower oil prices could cool inflation and reduce Fed pressure — an indirect positive for risk assets.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
Palantir delivered its strongest Q3 performance since going public, yet the stock price fell instead of rising, dropping about 3.8% after hours, confirming the market logic in the AI high-valuation sector that "meeting performance expectations is the baseline, and any marginal weakening triggers a pullback."
The fundamentals for the quarter were nearly flawless: total revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year; GAAP net profit of $1.128 billion, nearly 8 times last year; net margin reached 49%. A landmark structural inflection appeared as U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% year-over-year, surpassing government business for the first time in a single quarter, becoming the main growth engine. The company simultaneously raised its full-year revenue guidance to approximately 91% year-over-year growth.
The core of the decline stems from two marginal concerns: first, a sharp slowdown in new contract momentum, with total U.S. commercial contract value up only 11% year-over-year, compared to 153% last quarter; this quarter's growth mainly relied on deepening existing customer relationships, raising market worries about insufficient follow-up growth acceleration; second, valuations have long priced in optimistic expectations, with a forward P/E exceeding 140 times, leaving very little margin for error in performance, so any marginal weakening triggers profit-taking.
The market never trades on current performance, but on the marginal acceleration of growth.
$PLTR 🕒 At 9:40 PM, after the market surged, it entered a pullback confirmation. BTC rebounded to 77,200 in the morning and then consolidated around 77,000 in the evening. The essence of this rally is "stop-loss repair + short covering," not a reversal.
🚀 Three major supports for the rise: first, the worst phase of the Binance incident is over, and it did not evolve into a sustained run; second, the market has pre-digested the US stock decline, with 77,000 absorbing selling pressure; third, funds prioritized returning to the most liquid BTC, with ETH and SOL passively following, and rotation not spreading.
💣 But liquidation data reveals fragility. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $379 million, with long positions liquidated at $340 million (BTC $91.94 million, ETH $37.6 million). In terms of open interest, BTC contract open interest increased to 7.63 billion, with a long-short ratio of 2.62; longs were liquidated once but are still adding positions; SOL longs account for 78.6%, but active buying is only 56.6%, indicating crowded existing positions with insufficient new inflows.
🎯 Strategically, this is a "repair," not a "reversal." BTC key level is 77,600; failure to reclaim it likely leads to a pullback to 76,000; ETH faces strong resistance between 2,320-2,350, with support at 2,250; SOL is the weakest, with support at 94.35, and only a move back above 96.04 counts as repair; before that, any rebound is an escape opportunity.
⚠️ Final reminder: keep leverage within 3x, control your trades, wait for data release and right-side signals, and avoid blindly chasing highs and catching falling knives #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Iran's Supreme Leader has authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan." Can the Strait of Hormuz really reopen faster this time?
Pharaoh directly says, the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran is offering the US, not a guarantee. Iran compressed the original "seven-day plan" into a "two-day plan": on the first day, the US must fulfill its commitments, and on the second day, the strait will reopen. But the "down payment" the US must make is not cheap, including lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing Iranian funds, ending regional wars, granting Iran oil export exemptions, and lifting new sanctions. Which of these conditions can be negotiated in just two days?
The market believed it first. Oil prices immediately crashed more than 6%, with WTI briefly falling below $98, and Brent dropping over 6.5%. The logic is simple: as long as there is hope for the strait to reopen, the previously built-up geopolitical premium must be released first.
But for Bitcoin, this is an "indirect positive, but distant water cannot quench immediate thirst."
Oil price drops → inflation expectations cool down → less pressure on the Fed, which is good for risk assets. But Bitcoin is now hovering around 77,300, with 78,000 as a short-term strong resistance and 76,000 as a bloodied support line. The news about Hormuz does not change the current technical picture; funds are still waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed statements.
Iran's "two days" is a bargaining chip in negotiations, not a countdown. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Bitcoin, as expected, is making a second test; next, watch the 75,000 support level below.
First, this is near the low point of the previous phase's retracement and upward push.
Second, under the mid-term election, it is easy to be influenced by news, leading to either a dip and rebound or a direct waterfall collapse.
If it dips and rebounds, the bounce still gives you an opportunity to go long. If it collapses, that also aligns with our long position conviction. $BTC $ZEC ZEC is setting the clearing accounts!
There are 88.46 million long orders stacked near 1084 below, and 51.32 million short orders pressing at 1319 above.
The price is now stuck in the middle, grinding back and forth, another frustrating meat grinder market.
Whether it breaks up or down, once it breaks through the range, it will immediately sweep out one side of the orders first.
When both sides are setting clearing accounts like this, never rush to heavily bet on a direction; it's easy to get stopped out by being swept back and forth. Watch more, act less, and stay steady.
⚠️ Market chat only, not trading advice.🤮#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $BTC $ETH standing above 2266 does not mean the downtrend is over
$ETH slowly climbed back above 2266 from 2220.
It looks like a bottoming out.
What is this price level:
2220 is the 0.618 retracement level of this drop.
It didn’t break below there, indicating there is capital willing to buy.
What will happen next:
The real direction is not decided by the crypto community itself.
Last week, tech stocks in the US stock market rose for five days, then dropped all in one day on Friday.
$ETH will most likely follow the correction.
The market is quiet over the weekend, which can make people think it’s stable.
Monday’s US stock market open will be the answer for this round.
Stop-loss orders placed below 2220 are most likely to be triggered over the weekend.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
#$ETH The crypto market is facing another wave of selling pressure, and leveraged bulls are paying the price. 🔻 BTC breaks below $77,000 🔻 ETH falls below $2,252 🔻 SOL drops under $95 🔻 XRP loses the $1.25 level The biggest concern is leverage. More than $100 million in long positions were reportedly liquidated within just 60 minutes, adding further pressure to an already weak market. When Bitcoin loses key psychological levels, altcoins often feel the impact even harder. Forced liquidations can aETH current price is $2,292, with the 4-hour MACD forming a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars expanding, but the rebound just started to rise and hit a wall. The resistance above at $2,298–$2,341 is a hard ceiling formed by the overlap of the Bollinger upper band and the trendline, while $2,246 is the real short-term critical line; if broken, support will have to be found in the whale cost zone. The daily chart looks even worse: the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages stretch from $2,270 to $2,507, layering pressure, RSI at 32 is close to the oversold edge, and the downtrend is only "paused," not "ended."
ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of $140 million; BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrew $138 million, indicating institutional channels are systematically retreating. On-chain, 1.37 million ETH are queued for staking, while only 13,000 ETH are exiting the queue, with an entry-to-exit ratio of 100:1, meaning circulating supply is being locked by protocols. Whales are also active: on November 2, multiple addresses aggressively bought between $2,270 and $2,290, with single transactions up to $63 million.
The danger lies on the leverage side. Binance Safety Ball accounts show a long-to-short ratio of 2.67, with over 70% of positions long, and around $55.5 million long liquidation exposure lying near $2,284. If $2,246 holds, whale costs and staked locked positions can still support the bottoming process; if $2,341 is not reclaimed, any rebound will only provide liquidity to sellers.
But the bulls are invincible, always going long and always tearfully passionate.#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 #Palantir Q3 earnings exceed expectations but concerns emerge🔥
Palantir delivered impressive Q3 results, with revenue up 96% year-over-year, U.S. commercial business revenue soaring 148%, surpassing U.S. government business for the first time, marking the company's full transformation into commercialization and AI enterprise services, while also raising its full-year revenue guidance.
However, the earnings report hides growth risks: the core forward-looking indicator, total contract value (TCV) of new signed contracts, only grew 6% year-over-year, severely diverging from the doubling revenue growth rate, casting doubt on future growth momentum.
Since July, the stock price has surged over 55%, with the market pricing in AI growth expectations in advance. Even with strong overall performance, high valuation pressure remains hard to alleviate, intensifying short-term capital speculation. #美股 #AI #财报解读#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 In my view, AMD is basically a risk as intense as the midterm elections; the problem is that the market has too high expectations for it, so even a slight miss leads to issues. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
The current macro data is quite divided. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations at 55.5, indicating a strong economy, but inflationary pressures have not dissipated at all.
Because inflationary pressures have not eased, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in December has directly hit 70%, and the upcoming non-farm payroll data is stuck at this point.
The data itself is a risk rather than a direction; the logic is simple: if the data is too good, the rate hike expectation is maxed out, and risk assets have to fall. If the data is too poor, recession concerns intensify, and risk assets still have to fall.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The crypto market is facing pressure from political uncertainty, changing macro expectations, and institutional capital outflows. However, the US midterm elections are only one part of the bigger market picture. 📊 Three Key Factors to Watch: 1️⃣ Political Uncertainty & Market Sentiment Historically, election uncertainty can increase risk aversion and trigger defensive positioning. Leveraged long liquidations can accelerate short-term declines. Once election results become clear, some uncertaint💥 1.042 billion escaped in two days, BlackRock alone dumped the market
$BTC $ETH
BTC Spot ETF
October 30 outflow 643.3 million
November 2 outflow 398.6 million
Total in two days 1.042 billion
On November 2
BlackRock IBIT single withdrawal 405.3 million
Outflow scale exceeded the total market sum
Only Fidelity FBTC counter-trend inflow 6.68 million, all others zeroed out
ETH ETF outflow on the same day 140 million
Sixth consecutive day of outflow
October monthly outflow 1.61 billion, setting a new record
BTC fell below 77,000
Intraday dipped to 76,500, retesting September lows
Institutions withdrew funds, coinciding with midterm election voting day
When do you think this selling pressure will stop?
This is only a market review, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Moscow Exchange is scheduled to launch BTC, ETH, and USDT on December 1st, marking Russia's first official and organized crypto trading market. Many people see this news as a big positive at first glance, thinking a large wave of buy orders will flood in immediately. Here, we need to calmly break it down. $BTC $ETH
It’s not a free-for-all; the entry barriers are very strict. Ordinary retail investors must pass a test before entering, and can only buy up to the equivalent of $3,700 per year, which is a very low limit, making it difficult to bring in massive incremental funds in a short time. The rules are also very clear: trading is allowed, but using crypto to pay for goods locally is prohibited.
Another crucial point is that this exchange and its associated clearing center have long been sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU in succession. The West will not recognize this market, and large external institutions will find it hard to participate; it mainly serves local Russian players.
In the short term, this news is more of an emotional stimulus and is unlikely to directly trigger a major bull market. It essentially opens a regulated trading channel for crypto, but the scale and liquidity will be limited. Don’t expect this news alone to reverse the overall market.
Going forward, we can continuously observe the pilot’s trading volume. If trading remains quiet over the long term, then this positive news has basically been realized. If limits are gradually relaxed later, it might slowly release funds. For now, don’t get overly excited; just view it as a long-term direction. $ZEC
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期