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On January 3rd, the U.S. midterm election voting day officially begins. 230 million eligible voters across the country will decide the fate of 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. But if you just open the market software now, you might notice a counterintuitive fact: the market pricing for a "Democratic win" is already close to 90%. Kalshi traders give the Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and 74% for the Senate; multiple models show figures of 90% and 83%. In other words, a "Democratic win" is not news—it's the "Republicans holding on" that is. The midterms elect Congress, not the President. The so-called "Trump win" actually means the Republicans holding both chambers—currently both are controlled by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of 4 Senate seats (51 seats for majority; the Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote at 50-50) and 3 House seats (218 seats for majority) to flip control. Polls show this is not an easy task: Trump's approval rating is 38%-39%, disapproval 55%-60%; the generic ballot has Democrats leading by 6-12 percentage points. Historically, midterms almost always punish the party in power. But don't forget another fact: in the last 6 major elections, 5 times polls overestimated the Democrats. 2016, 2020, and 2024 all had surprises. A 74% Senate probability does not equal the final result. Tonight, focus on three numbers. The first number: the last few Senate seats.
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 我认为，这次Palantir的问题不是AI需求不足，而是市场对未来增长的要求已经高得惊人。 先看财报数据： 1️⃣ Q3营收达到23.13亿美元，同比增长96%，环比增长20%，首次突破20亿美元。 2️⃣ 美国商业业务营收达到9.84亿美元，同比增长148%，首次超过美国政府业务。 3️⃣ 调整后每股收益0.44美元，超过市场预期的0.41美元。 4️⃣ 公司上调全年营收指引，预计2026年全年营收增长91%。 单看这些数据，Palantir交出了一份相当强势的成绩单。 但为什么股价反而下跌？ 关键在于一个容易被忽略的数据：订单增长。 Q3总合同价值（TCV）达到29.18亿美元，同比增长仅6%，而上一季度增速为49%。 其中，美国商业业务合同价值同比增长11%，相比上一季度超过153%的增速，出现明显放缓。 这才是市场真正担心的地方。 营收反映的是过去已经兑现的业务，而新增订单和合同储备，更多决定未来几个季度的增长空间。 当营收还在高速增长，但新增订单增速明显放缓时，投资者自然会担心这种增长能否持续。 再加上Palantir本身🇮🇷 Iran’s proposed 2-day Hormuz reopening plan is creating market optimism, but it’s not guaranteed.
The plan depends on the US meeting several conditions, including lifting the naval blockade, unfreezing funds and easing sanctions.
Oil reacted fast, with WTI and Brent dropping over 6% as geopolitical risk premiums eased.
For crypto, lower oil prices could cool inflation and reduce Fed pressure — an indirect positive for risk assets.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
Palantir delivered its strongest Q3 performance since going public, yet the stock price fell instead of rising, dropping about 3.8% after hours, confirming the market logic in the AI high-valuation sector that "meeting performance expectations is the baseline, and any marginal weakening triggers a pullback."
The fundamentals for the quarter were nearly flawless: total revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year; GAAP net profit of $1.128 billion, nearly 8 times last year; net margin reached 49%. A landmark structural inflection appeared as U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% year-over-year, surpassing government business for the first time in a single quarter, becoming the main growth engine. The company simultaneously raised its full-year revenue guidance to approximately 91% year-over-year growth.
The core of the decline stems from two marginal concerns: first, a sharp slowdown in new contract momentum, with total U.S. commercial contract value up only 11% year-over-year, compared to 153% last quarter; this quarter's growth mainly relied on deepening existing customer relationships, raising market worries about insufficient follow-up growth acceleration; second, valuations have long priced in optimistic expectations, with a forward P/E exceeding 140 times, leaving very little margin for error in performance, so any marginal weakening triggers profit-taking.
The market never trades on current performance, but on the marginal acceleration of growth.
$PLTR 🕒 At 9:40 PM, after the market surged, it entered a pullback confirmation. BTC rebounded to 77,200 in the morning and then consolidated around 77,000 in the evening. The essence of this rally is "stop-loss repair + short covering," not a reversal.
🚀 Three major supports for the rise: first, the worst phase of the Binance incident is over, and it did not evolve into a sustained run; second, the market has pre-digested the US stock decline, with 77,000 absorbing selling pressure; third, funds prioritized returning to the most liquid BTC, with ETH and SOL passively following, and rotation not spreading.
💣 But liquidation data reveals fragility. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $379 million, with long positions liquidated at $340 million (BTC $91.94 million, ETH $37.6 million). In terms of open interest, BTC contract open interest increased to 7.63 billion, with a long-short ratio of 2.62; longs were liquidated once but are still adding positions; SOL longs account for 78.6%, but active buying is only 56.6%, indicating crowded existing positions with insufficient new inflows.
🎯 Strategically, this is a "repair," not a "reversal." BTC key level is 77,600; failure to reclaim it likely leads to a pullback to 76,000; ETH faces strong resistance between 2,320-2,350, with support at 2,250; SOL is the weakest, with support at 94.35, and only a move back above 96.04 counts as repair; before that, any rebound is an escape opportunity.
⚠️ Final reminder: keep leverage within 3x, control your trades, wait for data release and right-side signals, and avoid blindly chasing highs and catching falling knives #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Iran's Supreme Leader has authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan." Can the Strait of Hormuz really reopen faster this time?
Pharaoh directly says, the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran is offering the US, not a guarantee. Iran compressed the original "seven-day plan" into a "two-day plan": on the first day, the US must fulfill its commitments, and on the second day, the strait will reopen. But the "down payment" the US must make is not cheap, including lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing Iranian funds, ending regional wars, granting Iran oil export exemptions, and lifting new sanctions. Which of these conditions can be negotiated in just two days?
The market believed it first. Oil prices immediately crashed more than 6%, with WTI briefly falling below $98, and Brent dropping over 6.5%. The logic is simple: as long as there is hope for the strait to reopen, the previously built-up geopolitical premium must be released first.
But for Bitcoin, this is an "indirect positive, but distant water cannot quench immediate thirst."
Oil price drops → inflation expectations cool down → less pressure on the Fed, which is good for risk assets. But Bitcoin is now hovering around 77,300, with 78,000 as a short-term strong resistance and 76,000 as a bloodied support line. The news about Hormuz does not change the current technical picture; funds are still waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed statements.
Iran's "two days" is a bargaining chip in negotiations, not a countdown. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Bitcoin, as expected, is making a second test; next, watch the 75,000 support level below.
First, this is near the low point of the previous phase's retracement and upward push.
Second, under the mid-term election, it is easy to be influenced by news, leading to either a dip and rebound or a direct waterfall collapse.
If it dips and rebounds, the bounce still gives you an opportunity to go long. If it collapses, that also aligns with our long position conviction. $BTC $ZEC ZEC is setting the clearing accounts!
There are 88.46 million long orders stacked near 1084 below, and 51.32 million short orders pressing at 1319 above.
The price is now stuck in the middle, grinding back and forth, another frustrating meat grinder market.
Whether it breaks up or down, once it breaks through the range, it will immediately sweep out one side of the orders first.
When both sides are setting clearing accounts like this, never rush to heavily bet on a direction; it's easy to get stopped out by being swept back and forth. Watch more, act less, and stay steady.
⚠️ Market chat only, not trading advice.🤮#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $BTC $ETH standing above 2266 does not mean the downtrend is over
$ETH slowly climbed back above 2266 from 2220.
It looks like a bottoming out.
What is this price level:
2220 is the 0.618 retracement level of this drop.
It didn’t break below there, indicating there is capital willing to buy.
What will happen next:
The real direction is not decided by the crypto community itself.
Last week, tech stocks in the US stock market rose for five days, then dropped all in one day on Friday.
$ETH will most likely follow the correction.
The market is quiet over the weekend, which can make people think it’s stable.
Monday’s US stock market open will be the answer for this round.
Stop-loss orders placed below 2220 are most likely to be triggered over the weekend.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
#$ETH The crypto market is facing another wave of selling pressure, and leveraged bulls are paying the price. 🔻 BTC breaks below $77,000 🔻 ETH falls below $2,252 🔻 SOL drops under $95 🔻 XRP loses the $1.25 level The biggest concern is leverage. More than $100 million in long positions were reportedly liquidated within just 60 minutes, adding further pressure to an already weak market. When Bitcoin loses key psychological levels, altcoins often feel the impact even harder. Forced liquidations can aETH current price is $2,292, with the 4-hour MACD forming a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars expanding, but the rebound just started to rise and hit a wall. The resistance above at $2,298–$2,341 is a hard ceiling formed by the overlap of the Bollinger upper band and the trendline, while $2,246 is the real short-term critical line; if broken, support will have to be found in the whale cost zone. The daily chart looks even worse: the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages stretch from $2,270 to $2,507, layering pressure, RSI at 32 is close to the oversold edge, and the downtrend is only "paused," not "ended."
ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of $140 million; BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrew $138 million, indicating institutional channels are systematically retreating. On-chain, 1.37 million ETH are queued for staking, while only 13,000 ETH are exiting the queue, with an entry-to-exit ratio of 100:1, meaning circulating supply is being locked by protocols. Whales are also active: on November 2, multiple addresses aggressively bought between $2,270 and $2,290, with single transactions up to $63 million.
The danger lies on the leverage side. Binance Safety Ball accounts show a long-to-short ratio of 2.67, with over 70% of positions long, and around $55.5 million long liquidation exposure lying near $2,284. If $2,246 holds, whale costs and staked locked positions can still support the bottoming process; if $2,341 is not reclaimed, any rebound will only provide liquidity to sellers.
But the bulls are invincible, always going long and always tearfully passionate.#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 #Palantir Q3 earnings exceed expectations but concerns emerge🔥
Palantir delivered impressive Q3 results, with revenue up 96% year-over-year, U.S. commercial business revenue soaring 148%, surpassing U.S. government business for the first time, marking the company's full transformation into commercialization and AI enterprise services, while also raising its full-year revenue guidance.
However, the earnings report hides growth risks: the core forward-looking indicator, total contract value (TCV) of new signed contracts, only grew 6% year-over-year, severely diverging from the doubling revenue growth rate, casting doubt on future growth momentum.
Since July, the stock price has surged over 55%, with the market pricing in AI growth expectations in advance. Even with strong overall performance, high valuation pressure remains hard to alleviate, intensifying short-term capital speculation. #美股 #AI #财报解读#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 In my view, AMD is basically a risk as intense as the midterm elections; the problem is that the market has too high expectations for it, so even a slight miss leads to issues. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
The current macro data is quite divided. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations at 55.5, indicating a strong economy, but inflationary pressures have not dissipated at all.
Because inflationary pressures have not eased, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in December has directly hit 70%, and the upcoming non-farm payroll data is stuck at this point.
The data itself is a risk rather than a direction; the logic is simple: if the data is too good, the rate hike expectation is maxed out, and risk assets have to fall. If the data is too poor, recession concerns intensify, and risk assets still have to fall.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The crypto market is facing pressure from political uncertainty, changing macro expectations, and institutional capital outflows. However, the US midterm elections are only one part of the bigger market picture. 📊 Three Key Factors to Watch: 1️⃣ Political Uncertainty & Market Sentiment Historically, election uncertainty can increase risk aversion and trigger defensive positioning. Leveraged long liquidations can accelerate short-term declines. Once election results become clear, some uncertaint💥 1.042 billion escaped in two days, BlackRock alone dumped the market
$BTC $ETH
BTC Spot ETF
October 30 outflow 643.3 million
November 2 outflow 398.6 million
Total in two days 1.042 billion
On November 2
BlackRock IBIT single withdrawal 405.3 million
Outflow scale exceeded the total market sum
Only Fidelity FBTC counter-trend inflow 6.68 million, all others zeroed out
ETH ETF outflow on the same day 140 million
Sixth consecutive day of outflow
October monthly outflow 1.61 billion, setting a new record
BTC fell below 77,000
Intraday dipped to 76,500, retesting September lows
Institutions withdrew funds, coinciding with midterm election voting day
When do you think this selling pressure will stop?
This is only a market review, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Moscow Exchange is scheduled to launch BTC, ETH, and USDT on December 1st, marking Russia's first official and organized crypto trading market. Many people see this news as a big positive at first glance, thinking a large wave of buy orders will flood in immediately. Here, we need to calmly break it down. $BTC $ETH
It’s not a free-for-all; the entry barriers are very strict. Ordinary retail investors must pass a test before entering, and can only buy up to the equivalent of $3,700 per year, which is a very low limit, making it difficult to bring in massive incremental funds in a short time. The rules are also very clear: trading is allowed, but using crypto to pay for goods locally is prohibited.
Another crucial point is that this exchange and its associated clearing center have long been sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU in succession. The West will not recognize this market, and large external institutions will find it hard to participate; it mainly serves local Russian players.
In the short term, this news is more of an emotional stimulus and is unlikely to directly trigger a major bull market. It essentially opens a regulated trading channel for crypto, but the scale and liquidity will be limited. Don’t expect this news alone to reverse the overall market.
Going forward, we can continuously observe the pilot’s trading volume. If trading remains quiet over the long term, then this positive news has basically been realized. If limits are gradually relaxed later, it might slowly release funds. For now, don’t get overly excited; just view it as a long-term direction. $ZEC
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Historically, every midterm election, Bitcoin first crashes and then surges...
Since 2014, Bitcoin has followed the same pattern during every U.S. midterm election:
2014: dropped 50% within 71 days, then rose 24.5% a year later
2018: dropped 50% within 38 days, then rose 44.9% a year later
2022: dropped 25% within 13 days, then rose 92.3% a year later
2026 will put this to the test. This week's macro analysis four: The US stock AI narrative is recovering, but it still faces political uncertainty and macro confrontation! Asian stock markets fell sharply during the day, mainly because high Beta assets such as AI and semiconductors were heavily sold off, especially in the weakest markets of South Korea and Taiwan. Although the current macro environment has not improved much, after last week's AI and semiconductor sell-off, there was no decent rebound this week. Obviously, selling pressure still exists, and valuation adjustment demand also exists. So, besides macro factors, the problem is the industry's own valuation adjustment demand! Last week, the three major cloud providers released earnings reports, leaving the market with a key and sensitive issue—the capital expenditure is too high, and corporate funds are pressured by cash flow. The market began to question the AI investment return cycle. The US stock market closed lower early Monday morning, and Asian stock markets fell during the Asian session today, meaning last week's "mess" has not been resolved. Early morning earnings reports from Apple and Palantir, two companies at the tail end of the AI industry chain, are responsible for verifying the real situation of AI commercial implementation for the AI industry chain, and will also provide the market with feedback on the most concerned question at present—"Is AI really profitable, and if so, how long will it take to recoup the huge past capital expenditures?" Apple—validating consumption #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple is not a pure AI infrastructure company, so when looking at its earnings report, the focus is not on AI capital expenditure, but on iPhone demand + the Chinese market + service demand + the future Transferring the same 1 dollar, why do different stablecoins carry different risks?
Because having the same price target does not mean the underlying mechanisms are the same.
When evaluating stablecoins, focus on:
* Issuance mechanism: fiat reserves, crypto asset collateral, or derivatives and hedging?
* Reserve assets: Is the asset composition, custody arrangement, and public reporting clear?
* Redemption capability: Who can redeem? What conditions must be met?
* Market liquidity: Is it easy to exchange? How large is the bid-ask spread?
* On-chain risks: Are there freezing, transfer restrictions, or upgrade permissions?
* Network risks: Is the currently used version officially supported?
Being able to transfer does not mean you can redeem at 1 dollar anytime; historically close to 1 dollar does not guarantee it won’t depeg in the future.
Don’t just look at the price; look at what supports the price and what might happen in extreme situations.
#Web3Security #Stablecoin #DigitalAssets $ETH is charging upward with aggressive bullish strength.
Structure is holding solid as buyers step up aggressively.
Buy Zone
2,270 - 2,292
EP
2,292
TP
2,340
2,410
2,500
SL
2,230
Momentum is coiling tight for a massive liquidity sweep. As long as support remains firmly defended, explosive upside extension stays fully intact.
Let's go $ETH
#OKXOrbitTopics .$AAPL Damn it! This AAPL dump looks so fake, purely technical manipulation by the big players forcibly dumping, no effort to hide the shakeout intention. Guys, look at this candlestick, the 325.13 level broke down with heavy volume, all moving averages were pierced, a classic tactic to force people off their positions. Take my advice, don’t rush to bottom-fish, the manipulators aren’t done playing yet. My plan is to lightly short around 325.13, stop loss at 328.5, keep position under 20%, wait for it to trigger panic selling. For those wanting to secretly lay traps, click the token market card below and watch the order book flow yourself. This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please control your position size and bear your own profit and loss.👇👇👇Recently, gold has sharply retreated from the near $4000 high. The short-term selling pressure mainly comes from liquidity tightening and margin calls triggered by the sharp drop in the US stock market. The US-Iran conflict has further intensified oil prices and inflation expectations, suppressing gold's performance. However, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand still provide support. Currently, it looks more like a short-term liquidity shock combined with interest rate pressure, which is not enough to prove the end of gold's long-term upward logic. Key focus remains on the $4000 level, US Treasury real yields, and the US dollar trend.$BCH is building solid bullish traction atop strong support.
Reclamation of key levels indicates a powerful push loading.
Buy Zone
274.00 - 277.30
EP
277.38
TP
285.00
294.00
305.00
SL
268.50
Buyers are stepping in aggressively to defend every micro-dip. A explosive continuation leg toward upper target zones is ready to trigger.
Let's go $BCH Market panic intensifies! Midterm elections disrupt the market, BTC loses the 77,000 level and shifts downward, ETH is on the verge of breaking support, and ZEC faces a brutal plunge despite the upgrade countdown!
The real market truth:
Good news approaching but prices fall instead of rise, which is the biggest sign of weakness! ZEC has only two days left before a major upgrade, yet funds are not rushing in but collectively withdrawing, fully indicating extremely cautious market sentiment. Coupled with continuous institutional outflows, the overall market is completely under pressure.
$BTC: around $76,943, down 2.24% in 24h
Completely broke below the 77,000 integer level, short-term trend turns weak. ETF net outflow is a large $643 million, IBIT single market outflow is $234 million, institutional selling pressure continues to ferment.
Currently, 76,300 is the only buffer support; if weakness continues, further bottom testing will occur. Only by holding above 77,500 can the current weak pattern end.
$ETH: around $2,254, down 2.50% in 24h
Repeatedly hovering around the critical 2,250 support level, precarious. In the past five days, ETF cumulative outflow reached $431 million, continuous capital bleeding without relief.
Once support breaks, the price will directly target the low of 2,200, with heavy resistance at 2,300 above, and no short-term recovery momentum.
$ZEC: around $1,139, down 11.03% in 24h
The weakest asset in the market! The NU7 upgrade is about to launch, a hardcore benefit that triples block speed, yet it cannot stop the bearish selling pressure.
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Circle Earnings Preview
☆ Analysts expect Q3 revenue to be about $789 million, an increase of approximately $87 million quarter-over-quarter. However, there is no significant expansion in USDC scale, making the source of growth a focal point.
☆ Circle anticipates confirming about $180 million in ARC presale revenue in the second half of the year as product milestones are met; how much is recognized in Q3 will affect subsequent revenue continuity.
☆ Q2 reserve income was about $668 million, serving as the revenue base; USDC scale and reserve yield jointly impact interest income.
☆ Q2 distribution and trading costs were about $412 million, leaving approximately 41% of revenue retained after deductions; the proportion of USDC within the platform is a key variable to observe channel dependency.
☆ On October 29, USDC circulation dropped to about $70 billion, below the main fluctuation range of Q3; Q4 revenue expectations rely more on capital inflows or other income.Additional purchases were also made tonight in our more risky spot portfolio. From October 2025. On October 19, we provided an update on this portfolio and wrote that out of 19 assets, 6 had moved into a stable uptrend on the weekly TF. By the time of the night purchases - 7 assets out of 19. #FIL, #ICP, #STRK, #W, #TIA, #CFX, #TWT. Additional purchases were made for all. Overall, as announced many times, additional purchases were made for these assets for the same amount as the first time in October 2026. As can be seen, this is immediately significant $DOGE is awakening with powerful bullish surge potential.
Tight consolidation is coiling up for a massive burst.
Buy Zone
0.0740 - 0.0753
EP
0.0753
TP
0.0785
0.0820
0.0865
SL
0.0718
Persistent demand keeps sweeping up liquidity below. Once momentum triggers the next leg up, expect heavy acceleration toward peak targets.
Let's go $DOGE
#OKXOrbitTopics . $PAXG Support Bounce Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 3955 – 3980
SL: 3905
TP1: 4025
TP2: 4065
TP3: 4110
Price rejected the 3889 low with strong buyer absorption and is now holding the 3940–3960 zone as support. Momentum has shifted to the bulls with consecutive green 4H candles, giving high probability of continuation toward the next resistance cluster.
Buy and Trade $PAXG #PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but stock price fell instead of rising Palantir's core summary of the Q3 fiscal 2026 report is as follows:
1. Record performance: Q3 revenue was $2.313 billion (up 96% year-over-year), net profit was $1.128 billion (up 137% year-over-year), both exceeding expectations.
2. Historic milestone: U.S. commercial business revenue ($984 million) surpassed U.S. government business ($953 million) for the first time, becoming the primary growth driver.
3. Guidance significantly raised: Full-year revenue guidance raised to $8.53 billion, Q4 revenue guidance (about $2.65 billion) far exceeding market expectations.
4. Stock price "dies in the light": Despite the strong performance, the after-hours stock price dropped nearly 3%.
5. Core reasons for the decline:
- Overvaluation: With a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 140 times, the market demands "stunning" results rather than just "excellent"; the beat has already been priced in.
- Leading indicators slowing: Total contract value (TCV) declined quarter-over-quarter, and the pace of acquiring long-term orders slowed, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth. I've never understood one thing: when coins in institutional wallets move from one address to another, why does the whole network immediately start shouting about a crash?
Today, BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH, worth over 500 million and over 100 million dollars respectively, totaling 700 million. The comment section is full of "It's over." But these 700 million worth of coins just changed addresses; not a single coin has entered an exchange.
The real selling only counts when it reaches the exchange; before that, it's just moving house. To put it bluntly, when we transfer money ourselves, no one thinks we're going bankrupt.I browse crypto prediction markets, and now I usually first check if there's someone to take over when I want to exit. It's quite different from the usual buying and selling of Bitcoin; besides judging whether an event will happen, I also have to consider whether to wait until settlement. Some markets have odds that look quite certain, but the bid-ask spread is very wide, so I don't dare to treat that probability as market consensus. Even if I'm right, I might not be able to exit early at the price shown on the screen; I have to stick with it until the result, and hardly anyone pays attention to the orders placed.Last night I came across a set of numbers: BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH within one day. Based on that day's market price, that's $558.3 million and $144.2 million respectively, totaling over $700 million for the two transactions combined. The same institution, the same time window, two transactions in the same direction.
Breaking it down is even more interesting. The BTC transaction is over half a billion, the ETH one over a hundred million, both in the hundred-million range. This shows it’s not just casually moving a small amount, but two major assets moving together.
However, the term "outflow" is easily misread as a sell-off. On-chain, what we see is just address transfers. Custodial wallets moving to another address could be product redemption settlements, a change of custodian, or just internal consolidation. Real selling pressure only counts when coins enter exchange hot wallets.
One notable point is the synchronicity. $BTC and $ETH moved simultaneously, both over a hundred million. Individual large clients rarely rebalance this neatly; this scale looks more like product-level operations rather than a spontaneous decision.
My judgment: In the short term, don’t interpret this as a dump signal, nor dismiss it as noise. It indicates that holders of this scale can relocate positions massively within a day, and market depth isn’t as stable as imagined.
A point worth pondering: If custodial coins can quietly move over $700 million like this, how much reference value do those whale holding rankings we usually watch really have? In the next 48 hours, watch the next hops of these two addresses.The recent rally in the US stock market is just handing the bears a gift, $BTC can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, $ETH at 2294 with RSI already at 73, why chase it? $ZEC at 1199 with negative fees clearly shows no one wants to catch the falling knife.
About this US stock rally, I have one thing to say: it's a gift to the bears. BTC current price 77665, only up 0.01% in 24 hours, hasn't even touched the daily high of 78254, is this a breakout? It's a fake revival. RSI is only 65, not high, but the price is stuck just below the Bollinger upper band at 77484, MA7 and MA25 are both hovering around 77000, bulls have no strength to push higher. If it can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, don't be fooled by this small bullish candle to chase longs.
ETH is even more ridiculous, current price 2294, RSI directly hits 73.1, it’s stomping on the Bollinger upper band at 2283, overbought, 24h high only 2304, chasing longs now is just handing the chips to the main players. The fee rate is still positive at 0.01%, bulls are extremely crowded, any slight disturbance will trigger a chain of liquidations. ZEC at 1199 with negative fees, obviously no one wants to catch the fall, bears are pressing down hard, don’t bottom fish, if you do, you’re catching a flying knife.
My stance is clear: BTC rebound in the 77700-78254 range is a shorting opportunity, if it can’t hold above 78254, don’t talk about bulls; I won’t chase ETH longs when it’s overbought, wait for a pullback to 2260-2270 to see if there’s a chance to buy the dip. At this position, chasing longs is for suckers, chasing shorts is smart.#Anthropic's revenue surged 1127%, can it support a high IPO valuation?
Anthropic's IPO cut down to 1.5 trillion: Is the market out of money?
Last week's tech stock sell-off directly changed the script for Anthropic's IPO pricing. Institutional investors have been saying these days that the valuation at listing by the end of the month shouldn't aim for 2 trillion, 1.5 to 1.6 trillion is about right. It sounds like a price cut, but it's actually a reflex after thoroughly scrutinizing the prospectus.
Q3 revenue was 16.956 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 47%, while Q2 quarter-on-quarter was 144%. ARR rose from 65 billion to 67 billion and then basically leveled off.
On the other hand, computing power costs soared 77% quarter-on-quarter to 9.9 billion, of which 5 billion was short-term computing power bought at a temporary high price, directly turning operating profit from Q2's +974 million to Q3's -567 million. The total computing power commitment is 895.4 billion, with about 69.8 billion to be paid in the next 12 months.
Is it a change in risk appetite or a slowdown in growth?
Both. Risk appetite is the hand pulling the trigger, growth slowdown is the bullet. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the patience of funds for "burning money to buy growth" is visibly shrinking.
But fundamentally, this Q3 ledger makes the "retreat price" of 1.5 trillion not look cheap — it still corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio over 40 times the past four quarters' revenue, a multiple that very few IPOs in history can sustain.
My view is simple: you can consider the new listing, but don't take the "first-day jump" as a fundamental turnaround#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không
The future development of Palantir centers on the speed of switching its growth engine and whether it can outpace valuation contraction.
On the growth side, the engine is shifting from government to commercial. In Q2 2026, U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year; at this growth rate, Q3 commercial revenue will surpass government revenue for the first time. CICC raised its 2026/2027 revenue forecasts to $8.22 billion/$11.77 billion; Citigroup expects 53% revenue growth in 2027 and 67% growth in the commercial segment, both above Wall Street consensus. The U.S. Army's Maven contract increased by $618 million, and NATO's sole-source procurement was secured, indicating the government base remains stable.
However, valuation remains the biggest constraint. The current stock price corresponds to about 61 times 2026 revenue and 40 times 2027 revenue. RBC bluntly states "leaves no room for disappointment." CICC's target price implies only about 3% upside, maintaining a "neutral" rating.
In the next 1–2 years, Palantir's revenue is very likely to continue high growth, but the stock price is more likely to "buy time to gain space" rather than further expand valuation.Affected by the U.S. midterm elections, the crypto market is experiencing severe volatility due to the dual impact of macro-political uncertainty and net capital outflows.
The deep impact of the midterm elections on the market mainly manifests in three dimensions:
1. Macro and market dynamics: expectation digestion and sentiment realization
1. Historical patterns and risk release: On the eve of the election, driven by risk aversion sentiment, the market often experiences a defensive pullback of 5%–10%. Long leverage liquidations are part of a reshuffle process under extreme uncertainty.
2. Prediction markets and the boot dropping: Prediction markets have priced in the political landscape with high probability. After political uncertainties are resolved, short-term risk aversion sentiment release is conducive to phased market recovery.
3. Cycle and macro mainline resonance: Midterm elections usually occur in the mid-to-late stages of the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, global liquidity, and U.S. stock risk appetite have a more decisive effect on medium- to long-term trends than a single political election.
2. Capital and technical aspects: capital redemption and key defensive lines
1. ETF capital flows: Large single-day net outflows from spot ETFs reflect institutional cautiousness before the election. The key is whether ETF capital can resume net inflows after the voting day.
2. $BTC key structural support: The $70,000–$71,000 range is the mental defensive line maintaining the overall bull market structure; the $75,000–$76,400 range is the key support of moving averages and lower bounds. Losing this may trigger a secondary bottom test.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Chart spread out, count the lights yourself
$BTC support at 76,260, which is the bottom of the lower shadow on 10/30 and also the floor of the recent box; if it really breaks, look down for a deep retracement to 74,735, that's the second boot. Overhead resistance at 81,944, the top of the long upper shadow on 10/29, it tries to break through but gets pushed back each time. The chart also shows two rebound paths: T1 79,383, T2 81,125 — note, these are escape routes drawn for the bulls, not your buy points.
The moving averages are the most interesting part today. MA3 at 77,417, MA5 at 77,473, both above the current price of 76,822, short-term moving averages pressing down on the price, this is called a bearish alignment just starting and not yet finished. So as long as the rebound touches the 77,400-77,600 range, that is the battleground between the moving averages and the previous day's close, and also the most comfortable platform for short positions.
There is also the descending pressure line, connecting 81,944 on 10/29 to 78,831 on 11/01, today pressing down near 78,388. The price has been hovering below it for four days; on 11/01 it surged to 78,831 once but was pushed back, indicating someone is really defending this line. The stop loss for short positions is set at 78,250, just inside this line — if hit, it means the opponent held the line, and you admit defeat and exit.#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
Nonfarm payrolls are coming this Friday. The market expects an increase of 60,000 to 65,000 jobs, a clear rebound from September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. If the data falls within this consensus range of 60,000 to 65,000, employment is neither strong nor collapsing, which is the most comfortable scenario for the Federal Reserve—neither bad enough to abandon rate hikes nor good enough to accelerate them. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December remains between 75% and 85%, and this figure is likely to hold. What would really loosen rate hike expectations is data significantly below expectations, such as dropping below 30,000; conversely, if it surges above 100,000, rate hike expectations will be further cemented. So nonfarm payrolls are not the referee for "whether to hike or not," but the weight tipping "which way expectations lean."
On the crypto side, the market will likely continue to consolidate before the data release. BTC is around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 as a short-term key support; breaking below that points to 75,000. The resistance zone is between 78,000 and 80,000, and only reclaiming 80,000 would indicate structural improvement. ETH is near 2,280 to 2,300, with 2,250 as the short-term lifeline. Resistance layers from 2,320 to 2,350 are pressing down; a rebound without volume is a correction, not a reversal. SOL is in the 92 to 94 range, with 90 to 95 as a critical area to watch. If it doesn't hold above 96.9, the bearish structure remains unchanged.
Do you think this nonfarm payrolls report will fall within the consensus range or surprise the market? Let's discuss in the comments $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SNDK 【SNDK Deep V Reversal, Be Cautious When Chasing Long!】
Pre-market bulls are strong, pulling from 1069 all the way up to 1135, directly forming a V-shaped reversal to reclaim lost ground.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has hit the upper Bollinger Band (1137), and the KDJ indicator has entered a severe overbought zone (K=81). Although the SAR indicator is turning upward, showing strong support, the short-term deviation rate is large, indicating a need for a pullback and correction.
Strategy: Do not chase the price at current levels; be cautious of a spike followed by a drop. The first resistance is at 1144, with support at 1128 and 1112 (middle band). Wait for volume to shrink and a stable pullback before considering entry, with a stop loss at 1104.
Did you catch the bottom of this deep V? 👇 #SNDK #USStocks🔥#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
Brothers, the nonfarm payrolls are coming soon, and this data will directly affect the expectations for a rate hike in December 👀.
Currently, the market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in December is between 72% and 85%, with expectations quite high. The October nonfarm payrolls are expected to add about 65,000 jobs, compared to the previous 29,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. In short, as long as the data doesn't disappoint, or even slightly exceeds expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will be supported, which will suppress risk assets like BTC.
Right now, BTC is hovering around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 to 77,000 as the core bottom support, and whether 78,600 can hold is the short-term dividing line. At this kind of nonfarm payrolls node, the biggest fear is a double-sided spike around the data release, cutting both longs and shorts. If you have positions, don't just focus on betting on the direction based on the data; leave enough room for error 💡$BTC 🔷 CryptoX-ray #28: $EDGE −91% from peak, volume 6%
Cap ~$20.5M, FDV ~$75M, circulating 27.4% of supply.
Red flag: team (27.21%) and investors (14.64%) have 12-month cliff and 24-month linear vesting.
Aggregators show buyback and income to holders, but this does not grant payout rights.
Verdict: discounts exist, demand not proven. Waiting for confirmed buybacks. Ready for −30%.
Will discounts hold the price or will vesting crush it? 👇After this Binance hacker incident, there's a number I only noticed today.
Its user protection fund SAFU,
has already spent half of its BTC.
In February this year, the fund had about 15,000 BTC.
Now only about 7,500 remain.
At BTC's current price of around $77,000,
the remaining BTC is worth about $580 million.
In other words:
To handle this $6.3 billion hacker incident, Binance has really started tapping into its “safe.”
What's even more interesting is,
Binance had previously set a rule:
If the SAFU fund's value falls below $800 million due to BTC price drops, it must be replenished.
Now the fund is below $800 million.
But this time it's not because BTC dropped in value,
it's because the money was actually spent.
So next, I'm quite curious about one question:
When exactly will Binance replenish this fund back to around $1 billion?
That says more than just shouting “It's back to normal.”
#BTC #Binance #SAFU #Bitcoin #CryptoCommunity Brothers, I don't know if you were scared off, but I certainly wasn't.
I'm still holding tightly onto this wave of long positions on the big coin.
Last night's sharp drop, $BTC fell straight from 68000 to around 65000, that plunge was extremely fierce. I guess many long traders got liquidated by that big bearish candle and ran away.
But I posted at the time saying this was definitely a violent shakeout by Wall Street's main players!
Looking back at the 1-hour candlestick, a super deep V reversal pulled back directly to 66800, with MA20 and MA60 firmly supporting the bottom, the daily bullish trend is completely intact!
And looking at the data, ETF funds are still continuously flowing in, macro expectations for rate cuts remain, and the big trend is still upward.
On the news front, Bitcoin's ecosystem and Layer 2 underlying technologies are still being continuously developed.
The fundamentals haven't broken, the technical shakeout is over, what do we have to fear?
My long position entered at 64800, held from start to finish, is now steadily earning +30% profit (with leverage).
Next strategy: hold the longs tightly, get ready to welcome new highs!
Set the defensive bottom line to 65500, lock in profits.
The first target above is a breakthrough at 67500; if it holds, we directly look at the 70000 milestone!
The horn of the bulls' counterattack has already sounded, hold your chips well, let's keep flying!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $SOL What's going on with the market these days?
Let's set the background first. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.25%, with lithium battery and AI concepts both jumping. The US stock market isn't so lucky; AI return anxiety flared up again, with the Nasdaq down 1.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 3%. Tech stocks have been lined up to get hit since 10/30.
Back to the crypto world. $BTC fell 2.23% in 24 hours, currently priced at 76,822, with a 7-day range of 76,260-81,944, basically giving back the gains from the long upper shadow on 10/29. $ETH was more obedient, down 2.58% at 2,249, with a range of 2,171.52-2,391.16.
We need to break down the sentiment here. $BTC funding rate daily average is +0.0095%, latest +0.010%, meaning longs are still paying shorts daily — this isn't a sign of prosperity, it's like a crowd stuck at the door unable to get out. On the position side, it's more straightforward: open interest is 3.63 billion USD, with a net outflow of 116.6M in the latest day, but a cumulative net inflow of 297.1M over ten days. The price dropped from 81,944 to 76,260, yet positions increased by nearly 300 million, indicating that the added positions are shorts, not buyers stepping in.
Two extra uncertainties: the US midterm elections vote is tomorrow, and Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm are releasing earnings reports this week. With risk events piling up, don't overleverage.I've always had a question: On-chain accounts keep shouting "whale transfers into exchanges" every day. Does transferring in mean they want to sell?
Today is the same, 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH moved into Coinbase Prime within an hour, worth 700 million USD, looks scary.
But Coinbase Prime is an institutional custody channel. Money from firms like BlackRock naturally goes through this line; subscriptions, redemptions, and portfolio adjustments all happen inside. Retail investors deposit coins to sell, institutions move funds into custody—who knows.
If they really want to dump, you look at the order book and trades, not just a transfer screenshot.One hour, 700 million USD. BlackRock transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH into Coinbase Prime. As soon as the numbers came out, the first reaction in the group was "They're about to sell." Hold on, this situation needs to be analyzed on two levels.
First, look at the structure. 7,244 BTC equals 558 million USD, 63,600 ETH equals 143 million USD, roughly a four-to-one ratio. This position movement is mainly in $BTC, with $ETH just a small portion. If they were really liquidating, concentrating the heaviest chips into one address doesn't make much sense.
Next, consider the channel. Coinbase Prime is not a retail account; it provides custody, settlement, and subscription/redemption services for institutions. BlackRock's products require buying coins when subscriptions come in and sending coins out when redemptions occur. Changes in ETF shares ultimately reflect as inflows and outflows in the custody address. So a single "transfer in" record could mean preparing to sell or just completing a purchase.
What can verify the direction is not the transfer itself, but the subsequent traces: whether spot net inflows continuously increase, whether there are large orders above the market, and whether funding rates turn positive. Right now, there is only one transfer.
This should be read more as "institutional positions are moving," not "a drop is imminent."
What’s worth pondering is: why is the same transfer more often treated as bearish news than bullish? We are sensitive to "inflows to exchanges" but numb to "outflows from exchanges." This bias itself is a cost.Is the $COIN security incident a trust opportunity for Coinbase or an industry-wide contraction risk? Exchange accidents highlight the importance of compliant custody, potentially granting COIN a relative trust premium; however, security concerns may also reduce user trading and holdings. If institutional custody, subscription services, and market share remain stable, business resilience strengthens. The opposing view is that a market downturn suppresses transaction revenue; if assets and trading volume both shrink, the relative advantage is still inevitably affected by the cycle. Tracking custody assets, net inflows, and non-trading income, the security narrative cannot replace verification of the revenue structure. When further confirming, I will separate market expectations, revenue realization, and cash flow quality; at least two of these must align over multiple subsequent reporting periods before adjusting the medium-term judgment. If there is only a one-time message or single-quarter fluctuation, valuation recovery still needs verification. Good evening everyone, let's talk about the market.
It seems quite a few people are very concerned about the midterm elections.
Well, I think there's no need to be overly worried.
This afternoon, I analyzed the market background of $BTC price movements during every midterm election.
For this year's midterm election, sticking rigidly to old methods seems a bit foolish to me.
Be bold in your positioning; what you need to do is focus on the technicals.
We are still watching the 76000 and 75000 levels; as long as they are not broken, fantasizing about the market is useless.
I've already entered half of my long positions in $MSTR and $PURR.
Today, I continue to add to my Purr position.
Why add more? Because the price is still moving within my bullish logic, and when it dips, it gives an opportunity, so I add more.
Pay less attention to the news; with that time, you'd better improve your technical analysis skills.
Alright, the market is still moving as we expected, so there's not much to explain. Whether it starts with 76 or 75, I think it's okay to add positions.
Note, the range is a bit small; we still need to see a price breakout above the trendline to confirm an upward trend.Nearly 100 million "ghost chips" looming: The real culprit behind CORE's continuous decline is not the market, but a collapse of trust
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, with a 24-hour drop of approximately 11.5%, a 7-day drop of about 29%, a circulating market cap of around $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. What truly crushed the price is not the market, but nearly 100 million ghost chips. At the end of October, the Bitcoin dual staking protocol b14g was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE. On November 3, the Core network executed a hard fork, recovering about 68.15 million tokens, approximately 70.2% of the affected amount. However, the recovered tokens have not yet been distributed to affected users, exchange-frozen funds have not been returned, and there is currently no official compensation process. Earlier in September, the Core network urgently hard forked due to a validator reward vulnerability, with the top five exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspending deposits and withdrawals. The official approach is to upgrade forward without rolling back the ledger; key data such as the scale of over-issuance and whether tokens have entered the secondary market have not been fully disclosed to date. The two incidents combined directly undermine the BTCFi narrative. The premise of Bitcoin on-chain finance is security and trustworthiness, but with CORE repeatedly experiencing reward vulnerabilities, protocol attacks, hard fork recoveries, and unclear distributions, the market naturally questions: can on-chain assets truly be protected? More troubling is the total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards that decay annually and will be released over 81 years, meaning supply pressure will persist long-term.