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CoreWeave’s 5.9% rebound followed a 15.46% drop, but the credit market still tells a more demanding story: its 2032 bond yield exceeds 15% and 5Y CDS reached about 1,195bp. Huang’s comments on falling capital costs are constructive, yet a $100B-plus backlog only helps once compute delivery turns contracts into cash flow. Execution remains the test.
#JensenBacksCoreWeave #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Perspective: Slower growth doesn't mean bad if profits still increase strongly. If Netflix maintains profit margins and advertising stays on track, the current price drop may have already reflected most concerns. Conversely, another weak Q4 forecast would reinforce the "past its prime" narrative.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The core contradiction for Netflix in Q3 is: a 12% revenue growth rate, the lowest in nearly eleven quarters, with the biggest question being whether advertising revenue can fill the gap. The full-year advertising target is about $3 billion, with Q3 expected to contribute $700-800 million, but although the ad package has over 250 million monthly active users, the per capita revenue is still lower than the standard package, so monetization efficiency remains to be verified. Meanwhile, viewing time in the first half of the year only increased by about 2%, with weakening per capita engagement, combined with churn risk after price hikes, limiting profit margin expansion. Overall, the financial report is likely to meet expectations but is unlikely to bring surprises. Stellar cleared 12M transactions on Oct 11 at a $0.00012 average fee. That’s roughly $1.4k in fees for its busiest day this week. $XLM slid from $0.20 to about $0.18. Usage is real, but it’s payment throughput, not fee demand. Soroban averaged ~$16M/day in Q1 (Messari) vs ~$60M/day of stablecoin payments. My read: neutral-bearish through Meridian (Oct 28). Watching the 200-day near $0.18 and $0.21 resistance. A daily close above $0.21 on above-average volume kills this view. #CanBTCHold80K #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$ZAMA 说说Arthur Hayes那笔操作，我看到的时候是真没绷住。
三百多万枚，满打满算不到二十万刀。放在他那一堆仓位里，是垫底的那一小笔，零头都算不上。就这，还能被当成头条到处传。
你想想，大佬随手丢出来的买菜钱，能让一个币的嗓门大半天。现价就在七分五那档晃，24h倒是动了十四个点，看着热闹。
这就是我最服也最警惕的地方——故事比筹码大。他真金白银进了没有？进了。但这点量能代表什么信仰？撑死算个占位。
船票还便宜的时候大佬随便刮一张，风一吹散户以为抓到主升浪，这种剧本我见过太多了。$ZAMA The South Korean KOSPI index fell 14.5% this week, marking the largest weekly drop since October 2008. Is this crash in the Korean stock market a short-term market sentiment release, or a precursor to a semiconductor bubble burst?
Many are saying the economy is failing, but a detailed analysis of the latest data reveals this is mainly an extreme effect caused by the collision of three pressures.
AI monetization anxiety erupts
The US tech stocks have been volatile, compounded by market doubts about whether AI giants' massive capital expenditures can be recouped. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two chip giants, account for nearly half of KOSPI's market value. Once the AI chip bubble theory is hyped, Korean stocks naturally become the first to be hammered.
Fed rate cut expectations cool down
The latest US inflation data exceeded expectations, shattering expectations for further Fed rate cuts. US Treasury yields soared, and foreign capital has sold Korean stocks for eight consecutive trading days, directly draining liquidity.
Structural weight imbalance
The concentration of tech stocks in the Korean market is too high. Once foreign capital sells off semiconductors, the market will experience a stampede. Coupled with many leveraged funds triggering forced liquidations, the decline has been further amplified.
A short-term rebound is expected, but a big bull market is unlikely to return quickly.
In the medium term, it depends on whether US tech stocks can deliver profitable results and the Fed's liquidity stance. If the AI industry chain cannot produce impressive profit reports, this adjustment may evolve into a process of volatile bottoming.
#KoreanStockRecoveryRebound, can foreign selling pressure ease? After the announcement of the second-generation flying Tesla Roadster today, many people might see this as positive news, as Elon Musk has once again successfully captured the market's attention.
However, the new car launch brings imagination about Tesla's future, but this is a different matter from the actual profitability of the Q3 financial report.
The future performance of the Roadster is worth looking forward to, but it cannot directly change the revenue, costs, and operating expenses that have already occurred in the third quarter.
Therefore, I personally lean towards No, mainly for the reasons mentioned yesterday:
🔷 Revenue expectations: Q3 revenue is expected to be about $27.79 billion, slightly lower than Q2's $28.236 billion, but EPS needs to increase from $0.33 to at least $0.44, an increase of about 33%.
🔷 Regulatory credits and AI investment: Q2 automotive regulatory credit income dropped about 67% year-over-year, while Tesla continues to expand AI computing infrastructure, so profitability pressure is worth noting.
🔷 Delivery volume and profit: Although Q3 deliveries exceeded market expectations, they still declined about 2.1% year-over-year.
Moreover, delivery volume does not equal profit; ultimately, it depends on whether the automotive gross margin can improve and whether operating expenses continue to rise.
Overall, I believe it is not that easy for Tesla's Q3 EPS to exceed $0.43, so I currently lean towards No!
#OKX US Stock Earnings Season Breakpoint London event opens on November 15. Looking back three editions, $SOL rose two weeks before the opening in two of them.
The 2023 Amsterdam event opened on October 30. Fourteen days before the event, SOL rose from 23 to 35, an increase of 51%, and two weeks after the event, it surged to 55. The 2024 Singapore event opens on September 20; in the 14 days prior, it rose from 128 to 148, up 15%, then fell back to 142 two weeks after. The 2025 Abu Dhabi event opens on December 11; in the 14 days before, it dropped from 142 to 131, down nearly 8%, and continued downward one week after. Prices are based on OKX daily closing prices.
The two rising editions started from low points. At the end of September 2023, it was around 21; in early September 2024, it retraced to 128, 9% lower than a month earlier. Both editions entered the event with upward momentum. The falling edition was the opposite: mid-November it was still at 160, but dropped to 131 by the event.
On October 5 this year, the close was 119, then returned to around 106, 11% lower than the start of the month, a drop similar to the 2024 retracement. So the pre-event trend is slightly bullish.
If around November 1, two weeks before the opening, the price is still below 106, this year will follow the 2025 pattern.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Forecast Netflix Q3 revenue about $12.88 billion (YoY +11.8%), EPS about $0.82 (YoY +39%), likely to meet or slightly exceed expectations. Advertising revenue is expected to reach $700-800 million, potentially becoming the biggest highlight. The core focus is whether the operating profit margin can maintain above 33% while revenue growth slows to 12%. If advertising monetization data exceeds expectations, the stock price is likely to be boosted. $BTC is quietly recovering, while $ETH is still bleeding. This is not a coincidence, it's a signal.
Data on the 15th: $BTC ETF net inflow of 5.06 million, $ETH ETF net outflow of 60.22 million. The numbers seem small, but the direction is a hundred times more important than the numbers.
Let's start with $BTC.
5.06 million is indeed not much; the previous day's net outflow was 260 million, and inflow was only 1.9% of the outflow. But there's a crucial detail — throughout the day, only BlackRock's IBIT was active, with a single-day net inflow of 16.79 million, and cumulative net inflow has already piled up to 65.6 billion. Grayscale Mini is selling, but IBIT is buying. What does this mean? It's not that institutions stopped buying; the buyers have become more selective. The money is still flowing in, but the path has narrowed.
Today, the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 53 yesterday directly to 64, shifting from "neutral" to "greedy." Emotional turning points are often hidden in such single-day data.
Now let's look at $ETH, which is even more worth discussing.
$ETH ETF has had 11 trading days since October, with outflows on 10 of those days, totaling 860 million. On the 15th alone, ETHA had an outflow of 44.39 million, and ETHE outflowed 18.28 million. Continuous bleeding is not a single-day emotion; it's a trend.
Why is $ETH being sold off so harshly? Two reasons overlap.
First, the macro environment has precisely hit $ETH's weak spot. The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in October rose from 22% to 35%. The holder structure of $ETH ETFs differs from $BTC — more traditional US institutions and wealth management funds with lower risk tolerance. When interest rates show any sign of movement, they exit faster than anyone else. $BTC holders include more "faith-based" positions, while $ETH holders are more "allocation-based." Allocation positions are the least sentimental.
Second, the price structure has deteriorated. $ETH broke below 2400; the next technical support is 2300, and below that is 2200. In the past 24 hours, $ETH liquidations reached 65.42 million, 83% of which were long positions. Bulls are being repeatedly flushed out. On Bitfinex, $ETH long positions surged to a 4-year high, which looks very "bullish," but from another perspective — the more crowded the longs, the harsher the chain liquidations during a drop. It's a double-edged sword.
So why can $BTC hold up?
VanEck's research provides a reference: in a pure crypto portfolio, the optimal Sharpe ratio corresponds to a 71.4% $BTC / 28.6% $ETH ratio. When institutions rebalance and overall crypto exposure shrinks, who gets cut first? The over-allocated one. $ETH's relative weakness this year has caused its actual weight in institutional portfolios to deviate from the target. The rebalancing itself continuously creates selling pressure on $ETH.
$BTC is different. For all institutions allocating to crypto, $BTC is the first position, the largest position, and the longest-held position. It is the "core," while $ETH is the "satellite." Core positions get rebalanced but are not eliminated.
In plain terms: $BTC is the ballast stone, $ETH is the flexible position. When the seas get rough, you throw the flexible position first to save the ship.
The current market is telling a very clear story — capital is choosing between $BTC and $ETH, and a choice has already been made. 5.06 million versus negative 60.22 million — this comparison is not noise; it's direction.
$ETH is not without opportunity. If 2300 holds, and if there is volume-supported buying near 2200, that will be another story. But for now, don't fight the flow of funds.
Are you on $BTC or $ETH? Share your position logic in the comments.
#Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$ZRO large buy cost rising. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy increased from 0.47% to 0.59%. Depth deterioration precedes price perspective.
$TIA large buy and sell costs both rising, small buy costs almost unchanged. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale increased from 0.40%/0.37% to 0.45%/0.45%. 10k buy still about 0.09%. When costs worsen, adjust order size, not directional view.
$INJ large sell cost rising. Simulated sell slippage for 100k scale increased from 0.18% to 0.24%. Comparing adjacent windows, execution constraints are tightening.Solana just ran an ad in Shanghai
So why did the economic investigation bureau show up at the event today $SOL If Netflix's earnings report this time manages to align both the advertising layer and profit margins smoothly, the signal it sends to the market might be far more complex than just a single earnings report. Could the recovery in streaming quietly change the crypto community's pricing of risk appetite? When I look at these traditional tech earnings reports, I increasingly pay attention to the subtle connection between them and crypto sentiment. On October 20, Netflix's Q3 results came out, guiding revenue around $12.86 billion, with an operating margin raised to 33.2%, and the stock price is currently quite flat. On the surface, it's a business of subscriptions and advertising, but underneath, it's really trading on one question: in a high interest rate environment, can a mature platform continue to climb the profit margin slope relying on a dual engine of advertising plus membership? The bullish path is clear. If the advertising layer scales up, combined with subscription resilience, an upward revision of profit margins would be interpreted as "the pricing power of consumer internet still holds." Once this narrative is accepted, risk appetite will first expand beyond US tech stocks; BTC and ETH are usually not the first stop but will be the second, especially when capital feels the macro environment isn't getting worse. Sentiment recovery in altcoins often comes later, requiring BTC to stabilize first and ETH to relatively strengthen before people are willing to move into higher beta assets. But risks are also hidden in this line. The market's pricing for "beat expectations" is already quite full; beating itself is not surprising, what's surprising is whether the advertising outlook can turn the 33.2% figure into a starting point rather than a peak. If the guidance only meets expectations, the flat stock price could easily turn into a case of good news already priced in.$BTC
嘉信理财13万亿美元资管规模正式向零售客户开放BTC直接交易，这是传统金融渠道对加密资产的结构性认可，长期叙事进一步强化。链上数据印证了这一逻辑：本轮下跌中长期持有者每小时仅转入交易所约480枚BTC，仅为短期持有者的五分之一，持币结构依然稳固。但短期持有者每小时2200枚的转入量仍处于8月以来第四高位，抛压虽边际减弱却未消失。
日线MACD柱-484、DIF与DEA均在零轴下方，空头动能仍占主导；4小时MACD刚金叉但柱值仅9.35，力度偏弱；1小时RSI=64.18已接近超买，15分钟出现轻微顶背离。更值得警惕的是巨鲸动向——某地址5天内累计卖出1601枚BTC换成1.32亿USDC，转而买入53095枚ETH，这不是普通调仓，而是对BTC短期相对强度的直接投票。$BTC
是机构入场的长逻辑，是巨鲸离场、多周期指标顶背离的短信号。两者并不矛盾—长期仓位无需恐慌，但短线追多性价比极低82,000若无法放量站稳回踩80,500的概率大于直接突破85,000#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Platform coins have all been pulling back this week. Why did I only bottom-fish $OKB yesterday, but not $BNB or $HYPE?
Because I'm betting on the narrative of OKB scarcity being realized, while BNB trades time for certainty, and HYPE is a mature derivatives market that's hard to break through again.
1. Last year's narrative of OKB hitting a one-time cap, I think, was just the beginning.
Because after that burn, OKB actually hasn't been able to profit from OKX's development. Now the applications of X Layer and OKX Pay are just getting started, so demand for OKB is still low. I'm betting on this growth potential.
2. BNB follows a programmatic deflation path, which is actually the most stable.
It just burned 1.37 million BNB, leaving 136 million moving toward the 100 million target. This rule has been running for 7 years and is predictable.
Active addresses at 2.63 million and stablecoins at 16 billion have hit new highs, but its market cap is already close to 100 billion, so the downside is it's slow and lacks explosive potential.
3. HYPE is the native token of a decentralized perpetual DEX, with protocol revenue exceeding 1.4 billion USD, 99% of which is directly used to buy back HYPE on the open market.
The story is good, but the DEX market has a ceiling, making it hard to have a big breakthrough again. This is also why BNB and OKB have now upgraded to platform coins.#Tesla Delivery Beats Expectations, Profit Recovery Becomes the Focus
Tesla's earnings report after market close on 10-21, I am betting on a rise in Outcomes. Why?
① Deliveries exceeded expectations: Q3 deliveries were 486,500 vehicles, 5.3% more than analysts' forecast of 462,000, and 1.3% more than Q2. This is known good news; the stock price already rose once on the day of the 10-2 announcement.
② Energy storage missed the mark: deployed 13.7 GWh versus an expected 15.9 GWh, a 14% shortfall. Energy storage is one of Tesla's highest gross margin businesses, so this will drag on profits.
③ Profit threshold cut: This quarter's EPS forecast is $0.45, down 18% from $0.55 ninety days ago. Revenue forecast is $28.1 billion, almost the same as last year. The market no longer expects much profit this quarter.
④ Options undervalue volatility: Options only price in 6.6% volatility after earnings, while the past 12 times the actual average was 8.2%, with a maximum increase of 21.9%.
My logic for betting on a rise:
Lower thresholds make it easier to surpass. After an 18% cut in expectations, as long as profits return to last year's $0.50, that's a 10% beat. In the last 7 days, 5 analysts have upgraded and 3 downgraded; in the previous 30 days, it was 4 upgrades and 7 downgrades, the trend is shifting.The true value of XRP lies not in the story, but in adoption
Many people know XRP because of its historical surges or the years-long lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC. But judging XRP cannot be based solely on candlestick charts, nor can every Ripple partnership be seen as positive for the coin price.
What is truly worth studying is the institutional path Ripple has built step by step over the past decade: from cross-border payment networks to digital asset custody, stablecoins, and institutional clearing. In August 2025, the SEC and Ripple withdrew their appeals, significantly reducing long-term legal uncertainty. In October 2026, Ripple explored stablecoin settlement, cross-border deposits, and custody integration with DriveWealth, and the product boundaries are still expanding.
However, there is no automatic transmission between partnership news, company valuation, RLUSD adoption, and XRP price increases. The core judgment is this: Ripple's scarcest asset is not any single payment channel, but the ability to enter the compliance systems of banks, brokerages, and payment institutions. The most controversial aspect of XRP is that this ability has not yet stably translated into on-chain usage, token demand, and holder value.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? $HYPE: In-depth Cycle Review
Current price is around 81, with a September peak at 97.98, a pullback of about 17%. Looking at the weekly chart, it started rising from 9.3 at the beginning of the year to a high of 98, a more than 10x main uptrend over a year. The current price still stands above the EMA25 (69.5), so the weekly trend remains intact. The daily RSI has dropped to around 34, indicating short-term weakness, which is a normal consolidation after a big rally.
Capital flow: The contract long-short ratio is 1.93, with retail bulls dominating; spot 24h net inflow is 2.4 million, but the 30-day cumulative net outflow is 210 million, indicating large funds are taking profits at high levels. Short-term bottom-fishing funds are returning, and the long-short divergence is increasing.
From a cycle perspective:
This round of HYPE's rise is driven by the DEX narrative—Hyperliquid, as the leading on-chain derivatives platform, has real explosive trading volume and fees, not a vapor coin. From 9 to 98, the first main wave is complete, now in a consolidation phase, digesting valuation and turnover. It has not yet reached the frenzied emotional peak.
Historically, in every bull market, it is normal for leading coins to pull back 20%-30% mid-main uptrend. The weekly trend is unbroken, the DEX sector narrative remains, and the cycle-level market is far from over.
For mid-to-long-term holders, there is no need to be swayed by short-term fluctuations; pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Just personal opinion, trading is ultimately self-reliance
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, BTC weakened in sync and dropped below 82,000. This time, is it the US stock market setting the pace, or is crypto falling on its own? First, the news. Three sets of data: On the stock market side, the S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94; on the crypto side, BTC was at $81,571.4, 24h -0.09%, nearly one week +0.67%, breaking below 82,000; on the macro side, the US Dollar Index was 102.07 (-0.46%), gold 4,163.1 (-0.34%), and US September CPI year-over-year 3.7%. On the capital side, the latest ETF single-day net inflow was 172 million, with a 5-day net outflow still at 506.3 million; on the sentiment side, the fear and greed index dropped from 62 to 53. Next, looking at the impact of capital. The correlation between BTC and US stocks is not constant: during calm periods, correlation is low; during events, correlation is high. The reason lies in the "common factor"—when the market trades liquidity (interest rates, the dollar, risk budget), all assets move in the same direction; when the market trades their own fundamentals, correlation decreases. Today's CPI is a typical common factor event: it simultaneously affects stock valuations, dollar pricing, and crypto risk premiums. Implications for BTC: in a phase dominated by common factors, isolated on-chain or industry positives are hard to counteract the macro direction. A practical way to judge who is setting the pace is to look at the timing: if US stocks move first after key data releases and BTC follows, then BTC is beta; if BTC moves first and there is crypto-specific news, then$187 million extreme leverage long: This person pushed the liquidation price just above 80,000
Caught a ruthless player on-chain. Address 0x30a…93e, used 40x leverage to long 1,822 BTC (about $150 million), 25x leverage to long 15,270 ETH (about $37 million), total position $187 million. BTC liquidation price $80,637, ETH liquidation price $2,406—both less than 2% away from current prices.
This is not the first time this person has played this big. At the end of August, longed NEAR at $2.14, took profit at $4.88 at the end of September, earning $14.8 million on one trade.
Now BTC is around $82,200, and his longs are still in profit. But the 80,000 level was just broken and reclaimed once—there are never the words "take profit while ahead" in a gambler’s script.
Risk reminder: The liquidation price of high-leverage longs is a magnet for the market. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCOnce the PPI was released, $BTC dropped directly from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH fell to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the three-digit mark. Now it’s barely catching a breath: Bitcoin at 81000, Ethereum at 2363, SOL at 102.15. 📉
What’s truly worrisome isn’t a single data point, but that two consecutive inflation indicators have simultaneously missed expectations. PPI reported 6.3%, expected 5.3%, CPI just came out, and now PPI follows suit. Rate cuts have basically become a pipe dream, and the threat of rate hikes hangs over us again. The market’s fantasy of a Fed pivot has been almost completely shattered.
But looking at the market, the first wave of deep decline has just passed, and buyers haven’t given up yet. Positions haven’t been significantly reduced, and funding rates haven’t turned to extreme negatives, indicating leverage hasn’t been fully cleaned out. Bottom-fishing at this level is like giving away money. Even if you want to try, wait for a volume contraction and sideways consolidation first.
I’m still holding shorts—not because I’m bearish, but because in this situation both longs and shorts are prone to being stopped out. Holding on stubbornly is like handing out money; let leverage clear itself, no rush.
Key support levels below: $BTC 80000/78000, $ETH 2300/2200, $SOL 100/95. Don’t rush to bottom-fish at round number levels; if you miss the timing, you’ll be left with a bloody hand.
Can you hold through tonight’s market?
#USCPIAndPPITopForecasts #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Peter Schiff has again urged investors to sell Bitcoin and buy gold as inflation and bond yields rise. His view deserves context: both assets have declined this year, with gold holding up better so far. That does not prove either long-term thesis. I would compare liquidity, volatility and time horizon instead of treating one warning as confirmation.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $ZEC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 技术圈最容易犯的错，是等危险真正发生了，才开始补救。
10月16日的市场报告提到，Starknet社区正在讨论将网络转向独立、具备抗量子能力的Layer 1架构；与此同时，以太坊研究者Vitalik Buterin强调，zkEVM的发展不能只追求速度，还必须重视证明系统的安全性和验证的一致性。
这里有两个完全不同的时间尺度。
zkEVM安全问题涉及当前系统的正确性；量子计算则是长期密码学风险，不能把社区讨论解读成比特币或以太坊已经遭到量子攻击。
但这类讨论有现实意义：一旦底层密码学需要升级，旧地址、资产迁移、钱包兼容和用户操作都会变成复杂问题。
我的观点是，真正成熟的区块链，不只是行情好时运行得快，还要有能力在未来威胁出现之前完成安全升级。
当然，抗量子叙事也可能被项目拿来营销，必须看具体技术方案、实施时间表和独立验证结果。
真正有价值的技术升级，不是让投资者相信危险马上到来，而是让系统在危险到来之前做好准备。 Stabilizing prices is the bottom line, but he doesn't give any advance hints on how interest rates will move. The real judgment will come at the two meetings in October and December. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Global investment is quite strong this round; he sees this investment boom as a core support for economic improvement, so no need to panic in the short term. He talked the most about AI, saying this is the most profound economic transformation he has seen in his lifetime. The U.S. now even calls it SI. First, demand is pulled up, then productivity dividends will follow; the short-term impact on employment is still unclear. On November 16, San Francisco will hold a special AI hearing. He also mentioned the financial risks behind tech investment. The private sector is pouring money into new technologies; the Federal Reserve does not judge who is right or wrong but must watch out for extreme risks. In summary: don't guess interest rates, wait for the data. AI is a long-term story; don't use it as a basis for short-term trading. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC is following the overall market today; the entire market dropped 0.50% in 24 hours, but the top gainers are all small-cap sectors. Looking at the Retail, Trading Card RWA, and bStocks ecosystems together, they all revolve around the same idea: bringing real-world assets like stocks and cards onto the blockchain for retail investors to trade. Modular Blockchain rose 18.0%, more like catching up with the rally. Where is the money coming from? USDT market cap decreased by 0.20% in 24 hours; stablecoins are contracting, and no new funds are entering OTC. The main market is falling while small sectors are rising, indicating that existing funds are moving from mainstream coins to small caps. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 59 a week ago to 63, showing warming sentiment but not overheating yet. I think this round of RWA small-cap rally is supported by turnover of existing funds and won’t last long; the hotspot will shift to other themes within a few days. Next, watch the 24-hour gains of the bStocks ecosystem; if it falls back into negative territory, it means this rotation is over. Only if USDT market cap starts expanding again will the small-cap rally have the confidence to last longer. Netflix has fallen after 5 consecutive earnings reports: −5.1%, −10.1%, −2.2%, −9.7%, −7.3%.
In the past 12 earnings reports, the day after saw 5 rises and 7 falls, with an average volatility of 7.8%.
This time, the options implied volatility is 7.7%, almost the same as the historical average, indicating the market is not expecting a big surprise.
The stock price has dropped 41% from the high of 124 a year ago, and expectations have been lowered after 5 consecutive hits, so this time it’s not as full.
I am betting on a rise in Outcomes, and will see the result the day after the earnings report.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Attack on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil transportation continues to be under pressure The Trump administration is considering relaxing sanctions on the “Shadow Fleet,” with the core goal of lowering the soaring domestic fuel costs in the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections in November. This policy shift is not a full "relaxation" but a precise tactical adjustment aimed at lowering global shipping rates by releasing sanctioned shipping capacity, thereby stabilizing oil prices.
What is the “Shadow Fleet”?
The “Shadow Fleet” refers to oil tankers used to evade Western sanctions, specifically transporting oil and petroleum products from countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. These vessels often turn off AIS (Automatic Identification System) or tamper with information to hide their whereabouts, hence also called the “Ghost Fleet.”
Specific plans for sanction relaxation
According to disclosed discussion details, the core of the plan is “conditional, case-by-case approval”:
· Allow transport of “legal oil”: The U.S. government is considering allowing these previously sanctioned vessels to transport crude oil or petroleum products not sanctioned by the U.S. (for example, oil from other Gulf producing countries), rather than sanctioned oil from Russia or Iran.
· Sale and delisting: One option is to allow the sale of vessels on the sanctions list to legitimate commercial buyers; after approval of the transaction, the sanctions on the vessel would be lifted, enabling unrestricted operation.
· Case-by-case approval: Companies intending to purchase these sanctioned vessels must apply for approval from the U.S. Treasury Department. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) will review each case to decide whether to authorize the transaction and lift sanctions.
⚖️ Why relax sanctions?
The direct trigger is the global tanker freight rates hitting historic highs, significantly increasing the transportation costs of U.S. crude and refined products, thereby exacerbating domestic inflation. With the midterm elections approaching, high oil prices and inflation pose major political risks for the Trump administration. Previously, on October 9, Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel to increase supply, which drew strong criticism from Ukraine and European allies. In contrast, relaxing sanctions on the “Shadow Fleet” is seen as a more technical option with relatively less political resistance.
📉 Market impact: significant short-term sentiment shock
After the announcement, the market reacted quickly and sharply, mainly concentrated in the shipping sector, with limited direct impact on crude oil prices.
· Shipping stocks plunged: The market interpreted this as a signal of increased shipping capacity supply, directly bearish for freight rate expectations. Hong Kong shipping stocks collectively plummeted, with COSCO Shipping Energy down 13.5%, Pacific Basin Shipping down over 8%, and A-share COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping also hitting limit down at one point.
· Mild oil price reaction: The news had no obvious downward pressure on oil prices. WTI crude even rose due to a large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, while Brent crude fell slightly. The market on one hand assessed that sanction relaxation might increase supply, while on the other remained cautious about the escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other.
🔮 Follow-up developments and key constraints
The actual effect of this policy is highly uncertain, mainly constrained by the following factors:
1. The “Shadow Fleet” capacity is already in use: Many sanctioned tankers are not idle; they have been actively operating over the past three months, transporting oil for Russia and Iran. Therefore, relaxing sanctions is unlikely to quickly increase available mainstream tanker capacity.
2. Effectiveness is doubtful: Industry insiders generally expect that even if sanctions are relaxed, freight rates will not significantly decline, and the ultimate effect on lowering global oil prices may be very limited.
3. Political and legal obstacles: This move faces domestic criticism in the U.S. as a de facto concession to Russia and Iran. Also, any modification to the sanctions list requires a complex legal review process by the U.S. Treasury Department. $BZ
4. Geopolitical risk hedging: The tension in the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest uncertainty. Recently, two commercial ships were attacked and sunk, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also announced sinking a cargo ship. If security risks in the region continue to escalate, the room for freight rate decline will be very limited and may even surge again. $CL
Summary
Trump’s consideration to relax sanctions on the “Shadow Fleet” is a tactical policy experiment driven by election pressure. Its core goal is to lower shipping costs by increasing compliant shipping capacity, thereby easing domestic inflation pressure. However, since the “Shadow Fleet” capacity is already active and geopolitical risks in the Middle East hedge against this, the move is more symbolic than effective. It is more likely a form of “expectation management” for the market rather than a “magic bullet” that can fundamentally reverse oil price and freight rate trends. Whether it can be implemented and its actual impact remain to be seen, depending on the approval pace of the U.S. Treasury Department and the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz. $BWET Netflix’s Q3 isn’t just about the revenue line. The market is watching two things: how much the ad tier is adding, and whether operating margins hold up. Expectations are high (77% “Yes” on beating earnings), so there’s room for disappointment too. If ads become a real growth engine, the narrative could shift.
$NFLX
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins BTW it previously surged sharply, reaching a high of $2.77, but has now fallen back to around $1.96.
There are several details worth noting in the 4-hour structure:
① The $2.77 peak and pullback: Significant selling pressure at the high, with a nearly 30% retracement from the previous high.
② Repeated contest around $2: The MA25 is near $2.02, but the price has not yet been able to firmly hold above it, showing short-term weakness.
③ $1.8–$1.9: Recent support zone; if broken, it may continue to test around $1.5.
But what I care about most is the token distribution.
A market cap of $19.66 billion, but liquidity is only $4.21 million, with the top ten addresses holding as much as 96%.
Although the top ten addresses may include contracts or liquidity pools, this level of concentration and liquidity structure calls for extra caution.
My judgment: short-term is more inclined to be weak and oscillating, but a sudden big bullish candle to continue shaking out shorts cannot be ruled out.📊 OKX Preview | What Major Events Are Coming Next? BTC and ETH Volatility Schedule
Brothers, the double blow of CPI and PPI just passed, and the market is still digesting the Wash speech, but the real tough battles are yet to come. I've marked all the upcoming key points that could trigger major volatility.
In short: From late October to December, there will be a tough battle almost every two weeks.
📅 Remaining Key Dates in October
① October 17 — Start of FOMC Quiet Period
From October 17 to October 29, Federal Reserve officials will collectively remain silent and will not publicly release any policy signals. Historical experience: during the quiet period, the market lacks directional guidance, and volatility often increases because any small movement can be overinterpreted.
② October 21 — Solana Alpenglow Upgrade
The Solana Foundation has confirmed the mainnet Alpenglow upgrade on October 21, the largest consensus reform to date, shortening transaction finality to about 150 milliseconds. Although directly beneficial to SOL, the mainstream coin linkage effect cannot be ignored—active capital flow in the SOL ecosystem may temporarily divert attention from BTC and ETH.
③ October 27-28 — October FOMC Meeting
This is the biggest bomb ahead. The market currently prices about a 66.8% chance of no rate change in October, but a high probability of rate hikes in December: 62.2% for a 25bp hike + 28.7% for a 50bp hike. Wash is an advocate of the "silent central bank" and likely won't take clear action in October, but the wording of the meeting statement will directly determine the pricing direction for December hikes.
· BTC key level: 80,000. If the FOMC statement is hawkish, 80,000 will likely be broken, with the next support around 78,000-79,000.
· ETH key level: 2,350. ETH has much higher leverage density than BTC; under FOMC shocks, ETH's decline is usually 1.5-2 times that of BTC.
④ October 30-31 — G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting
The US will host the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting in Atlanta. The FSB has previously listed global stablecoins as a financial stability issue; if the meeting releases signals to "accelerate global unified regulation," USDT/USDC trading pairs may experience short-term volatility.
📅 Key Dates in November
⑤ November 6 — October Nonfarm Payroll Data
This is the first major employment data after the FOMC. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the previous 133,000. If October nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken, the market will start pricing in "stagflation"—high inflation but worsening employment, the worst combination for risk assets.
⑥ November 10 — October CPI Data
CPI is the biggest monthly volatility catalyst. September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations across the board. If October CPI continues to rise, the probability of a 50bp hike in December will further increase, putting new selling pressure on BTC and ETH.
⑦ November 28 — Start of December FOMC Quiet Period
From November 28 to December 10, the Fed enters another quiet period. This is the last observation window before the December rate decision meeting.
📅 Key Dates in December
⑧ December 8-9 — December FOMC Meeting
This is the last major bomb of the year. The market currently prices over a 90% chance of a December rate hike (combined 25bp+50bp). If Wash remains inactive in October, action is very likely in December. If the tail risk of a 50bp hike materializes, BTC may test 75,000 or even lower.
⑨ December 10 — November CPI Data
Just two days after the December FOMC, CPI data arrives. If CPI remains stubborn after the hike, the market will start pricing in "continued hikes into 2027," which would fundamentally damage the mid-term valuation logic of the crypto market.
⑩ December 14-15 — G20 Leaders Summit
Trump will host the G20 Leaders Summit in Miami. This is the last international occasion this year that may release major policy signals. Whether crypto regulatory frameworks will be discussed is worth watching.
🎯 OKX Perspective: Schedule Summary
Date Event Potential Impact on BTC/ETH
October 21 Solana Upgrade ⭐⭐ Linkage Effect
October 27-28 FOMC Meeting ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Biggest Bomb
November 6 Nonfarm Data ⭐⭐⭐
November 10 CPI Data ⭐⭐⭐⭐
December 8-9 FOMC Meeting ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
December 10 CPI Data ⭐⭐⭐
December 14-15 G20 Summit ⭐⭐
Core Judgment:
Before the October FOMC (before October 27), BTC will likely oscillate between 79,000-84,000. ETH is weaker, repeatedly testing 2,350-2,500. Every rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not to add.
The real directional choice is at the December FOMC. If a 50bp hike lands in December and CPI does not peak, BTC may test 75,000 and ETH may return to 2,100-2,200. But if October CPI unexpectedly falls and December only hikes 25bp, the market may see a retaliatory rebound.
Positioning advice: Keep below 50%, save your bullets. Volatility will only increase in the next two months, not decrease.
📌 OKX Community Reminder: The above is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Leverage carries risks; don't bet your life on uncertainty.
Do you think the October FOMC will hold steady or hike directly? Place your bet in the comments👇$BTC $ETH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.Bitcoin only moved 1.43 million yesterday, Ethereum moved 65.68 million, and SOL is even worse—net outflows for 8 consecutive days, last night's ETF data was more exciting than the market!
$BTC had a net outflow of 1.43 million yesterday, compared to 31.44 million outflow the day before. This is not a small number; it's a clear sign of braking. BlackRock and Fidelity made no big moves; the sell-off came from BTCO and BTC, both with small volumes. Institutions are just watching at this level, no panic, no rush to buy.
$ETH had a net outflow of 65.68 million yesterday, mainly because Grayscale ETHE sold 75.59 million. But Fidelity's FETH bought 9.91 million against the trend. Selling and buying at the same time shows big institutional disagreement. This kind of market is the most frustrating, direction unclear, and it will still fluctuate around 2400.
$SOL had a net outflow of 94,000 yesterday, a very small volume, but this is the 8th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Both BSOL and GSOL are selling. This shows that funds have consistently disliked it. The rebound is all supported by sentiment, with no real money backing it, so the height is limited.
Summary: BTC is braking, ETH is divided, SOL is bleeding. No incremental funds are coming in. Last night's spike was driven by short covering and retail bottom-fishing, not institutions. A rebound is possible, but a reversal is still early.
When do you think ETF funds will turn positive?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins 1/5 $TSLA deliveries for Q3 +1.4% QoQ look fine. This is not a 🧵. The point is the mixed result: USA (our forecast) -9.2% QoQ, China +17.8% QoQ. $TSLA in Q3 2026 sold its most profitable cars instead of the least profitable ones (THIS IS BAD).#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 $BTC $ETH Macroeconomic data is causing a lot of noise; many people focus on interest rate hikes and inflation but tend to overlook a real signal: recently, BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows. Institutional funds are redeeming, yet prices have not crashed, and this divergence is worth careful consideration. ETF funds represent the attitude of Wall Street allocation capital. Continuous net outflows indicate that some traditional institutions, facing inflation rebounds and a high-interest-rate environment, choose to reduce crypto asset positions and exit to hedge risk.
ETF is only one of the institutional entry channels, not the whole picture. Many funds choose OTC off-exchange or directly accumulate coins on-chain, which does not show up in ETF data. During price pullback ranges, some long-term holding addresses continue to accumulate and will not sell casually due to short-term data disturbances, forming the market's underlying buffer.
The selling pressure from large ETF redemptions is often absorbed by on-exchange quant funds. Many engage in range oscillation, buying high and selling low, so the market tends to jump up and down and struggles to form a one-sided big trend. There are bottom-fishing buy orders during big drops, but retail funds are limited in size and can only support short-term support, making it difficult to actively drive a large-scale upward trend.
Therefore, even if selling pressure is absorbed, it mostly holds the range rather than directly reversing into a bull market.
Continuous ETF outflows themselves are a bearish signal, limiting the height of rebounds; but whales and on-exchange funds absorbing the pressure prevent prices from crashing continuously. The combination of these two creates the current pattern of repeated spikes and oscillating bottom consolidation. $SOL
SOL rose more than 3%, how to distinguish between ecosystem revaluation and market rebound?
Spot price rose about 3.67% in 24 hours, ranging from 100.89 to 106.66, with the price at about 87% of the range. The increase is close to ETH, and current evidence first supports a synchronous recovery of risk appetite.
To gain an independent premium, real application demand relay is needed; a price rebound cannot be directly interpreted as on-chain revenue growth. Price and business indicators should be verified separately.
Only if it stabilizes above 106.66 and forms a higher pullback low point will continuation be favorable; if BTC falls and SOL gives back most of its gains, the claim of independent strength does not hold. 100.89 is the lower boundary of this range.BTC,ETH 本轮反弹后陷入高位横盘，本质并非多头动能衰竭，而是市场资金集体进入观望窗口，等待今日关键事件落地：周五 11:30，美联储沃什将在曼谷 IMF 年会发表公开讲话，是短期资产定价的核心变量。
技术面结构解读
短线层面，本轮行情定性为下跌后的修复反弹，82500 附近构成第一阶段短线压力，价格需要时间震荡消化浮筹；从日线级别看，前期回调空间已经充分释放，本轮成交量同步放大属于积极信号，但多头尚未完成结构确认，不能直接判定趋势反转。
前期 BTC 回踩 8 万整数关口，触发大量 8 万上方多头爆仓清洗筹码，多空比持续下行，而市场总持仓稳步抬升。当前 83000-84000 区间存在厚重空头压力墙，82700-83500 一带沉淀约 2 亿空头挂单，价格已经在区间内横盘十余小时。在沃什讲话落地前，波动率持续压缩，事件驱动下触发多空双爆的概率偏高。
宏观底层矛盾：通胀、消费与滞胀隐忧
PPI、CPI 数据连续超预期走高，出现一组反直觉市场表现：权益市场与加密资产同步反弹，长期美债收益率显著下行。债市定价已经提前押注美国经济放缓，我们拆开零售数据便能看清真相：9 月零售总额环比 + 0.8%，但剔除汽油项后核心零售仅增长 0.1%。整体消费数据的亮眼完全由油价推升，居民可选消费已经实质性走弱，市场开始计价后续政策刺激预期，滞胀的交易叙事正在逐步发酵。高位油价持续承压，相关政策预期也值得持续跟踪。
资金面的隐忧：ETF 持续流出
机构端资金并不支持快速拉涨，现货 ETF 延续资金流出态势，单日净流出规模 2.614 亿。机构资金持续撤退，叠加宏观前景尚未明朗，在当前位置直接开启趋势性突破的条件并不充足，短期行情大概率维持反复拉锯、区间震荡的格局。
行情展望
当前多头想要打开上行空间，还需要等待关键信号：油价出现连续快速下行，才会进一步改善宏观环境，为 BTC、ETH 突破压力区间创造条件。在信号兑现前，优先看待为区间博弈行情，警惕事件讲话带来的短期剧烈波动。$BTC #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook Will the expansion of HBM4 production stop? Some final processing equipment orders for SK Hynix may be delayed until next year.
While major storage companies are pushing to mass-produce the sixth generation of High Bandwidth Memory HBM4, some final processing equipment workers see the expansion pace as slower than expected. Some equipment orders planned to be added this year may be postponed for delivery next year. Signs of delay have appeared on equipment that was scheduled to arrive in the second half of the yearAmericans really can fly! The non-AI new Tesla Roadster accelerates from 0-60 mph in just 1 second. It is equipped with 4 thrusters developed by SpaceX at the rear. Tesla held a live launch. This time Xiaomi and Huawei really, really can't keep up. The timing of this release is also very interesting: because its earnings report will be released next week on October 21 (Wednesday after U.S. market close). Currently, there are three versions of the Roadster for sale: Performance2 and Thrust can be pre-ordered if you have the money, with pre-order prices of $50,000 and $230,000 respectively. Only the flying Rocket1 “air ready” is by invitation only, and can be pre-ordered only by invitees. The number of pre-orders for the flying Roadster is not the key point, since it might not even be road-legal, but it demonstrates Tesla's ability and imagination beyond ordinary car companies, turning sci-fi movie concepts into reality, which is what everyone truly cares about. This is also why the market has been willing to give Elon and $TSLA their market value. Moreover, this demonstration also linked Elon’s two most important companies; currently, only Tesla can build rocket cars 🚗. $SPCX Regarding next week's earnings report: the market currently expects revenue of about $27.7-27.9 billion and EPS around $0.45. Market expectations are relatively flat. Revenue pre#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight It should grow Before the Korean stock market opened this morning, Samsung and SK Hynix both rose about 3%. Don't underestimate this move. A few days ago, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost over two trillion in seven trading days, with widespread heavy selling, and the storage leaders were hit every day. The most panic was exactly where the expectation gap was the largest.
In the past two days, I have taken long positions in storage, not based on some mystical "bottom fishing," but on something very concrete: the visibility of long-term demand orders is still there. This round of selling hit valuations and sentiment, not fundamentals. This 3% pre-market rebound is like casting a preliminary vote for this judgment.
But on the other hand, a rebound does not equal a reversal; one pre-market bullish candle proves nothing. I can hold because I have thought through my position size, stop loss, and exit price. The biggest fear when buying into an oversold market is not being wrong about the direction, but not having a plan for what to do if you are wrong. Storage stocks bloodbath week, I reviewed the valuations of 13 AI companies and found the market is making the same mistake
This week storage stocks were hammered: SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all plunged. The trigger was the HBM news from ChangXin Memory, but the market smashed three completely different companies under the same logic — this is an opportunity.
I pulled valuations of 13 AI industry chain companies for comparison (as of the close on October 15):
Compute layer: NVDA, AVGO remain valuation anchors; TSM, ASML, AMAT have the highest order visibility on the equipment side
Storage layer: the most differentiated. SK Hynix is the HBM leader (NVIDIA’s core supplier), Micron is the follower, SanDisk is pure NAND — three companies with completely different scripts, yet buried by the same candlestick
Application layer: ADBE, CRM valuations have returned to reasonable ranges; AI monetization progress is the key variable
My judgment:
1. Panic pricing ≠ fundamental pricing; storage demand logic (AI driving HBM/NAND) has not been falsified
2. Next, watch earnings reports for validation: SK Hynix on October 28, Micron in December; earnings are the watershed
3. Light positions and observe before earnings, then decide after validation — no gambling, only follow confirmed signals
I personally hold MU in my OKX US stock portfolio, based on the above logic. Welcome to debate.
#OKX星球 #USStocks #Storage #AIIndustryChain In the Q3 report released by CoinGecko on October 15, a contrast was highlighted: the total crypto market cap rose 39.6% quarter-over-quarter, but the trading volume of the top ten centralized spot exchanges dropped 14.2%, falling to $1.65 trillion.
Price increases and trading activity did not move in sync. Seeing the market cap rebound, I wouldn’t immediately add “everyone is back.” This is a just-published quarterly review, not today’s real-time market; to assess the market, price and participation must be viewed separately.
$BTC Strive在10月14日的8-K里，把两件事放在一起披露：12日至13日，认股权证行权预计带来3.692亿美元总收入；同一期间，公司买入2822枚比特币，含费用的均价约83266美元。
我看这类消息，会先把“又买了多少币”和“钱怎么来的”拆开。行权带来资金，也对应新增普通股；不能只盯着币的总量，就默认每位老股东分到的那一份也同比增加。
币圈爱给上市公司排买币榜，但股东拿的是股票，不是一张等额BTC存单。下一步该对照股本变化和每股指标。买得多是一个事实，买得划不划算，还得把分母带上。
$BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix财报还没公布，市场已经给77%的超预期概率开出了价格。华尔街的预期，有时候比电视剧的剧情还精彩。
奈飞将在10月20日美股盘后公布Q3财报。公司此前预计营收约128.6亿美元，同比增长约12%，营业利润率约33.2%。
欧易Outcomes当前显示：
🟢 财报超预期 Yes：77¢
🔴 财报不及预期 No：24¢
💰 事件交易额：约80.13万美元
这意味着市场更倾向于押注财报超预期，但77¢不是77%的真实胜率，更不是股票上涨77%的概率。
奈飞的看点不只是营收增长，而是广告业务能否成为第二增长引擎。
值得观察三个变量：
① 广告收入增长能否抵消内容成本压力。
② 营业利润率能否维持公司此前指引的水平。
③ 财报表现是否已经被市场提前计入股价。
预测正确，不代表交易一定赚钱
财报即使超预期，股价也可能因为指引偏弱或预期过高而下跌
市场现在愿意为好成绩提前买单，我更想知道的是：这份成绩单究竟要好到什么程度，才能让股价继续上涨。
$NFLX
#奈飞财报 #Netflix #美股财报 #Outcomes #预测市场$LINK
Blockchain adoption depends partly on infrastructure that users rarely see. Chainlink provides oracle services that connect smart contracts with external data and other systems, including cross-chain infrastructure. Its challenge is turning broad integration potential into sustained economic demand. For $LINK, the important distinction is between the usefulness of Chainlink's services and the extent to which that activity creates lasting demand for the token.$OP
Ethereum scaling is not simply a race to offer the cheapest transactions. Optimism's OP Stack allows developers to build customized blockchain networks using shared infrastructure. This creates opportunities for ecosystem expansion, but it also raises questions about competition and value capture. The key issue for $OP is whether the broader Superchain ecosystem can develop sustainable economic activity that meaningfully benefits its governance and token ecosystem.Starknet已于昨日正式就“是否探索脱离以太坊”开启了为期七天的非约束性社区投票，询问$STRK 持有人是否支持研究将Starknet转型为独立、具备后量子安全能力的Layer 1。首先阿简要提醒各位友仔这里有两个重要限定，一是这只是一次征询意见的投票，不是已经决定脱离以太坊；二是即便投票支持进一步研究，后续仍需经过更多提案和治理程序，现阶段也没有正式迁移时间表
其次，Starknet的出发点也很淳朴，若未来量子计算对现有密码学构成实际威胁，网络不仅要考虑自己的签名和证明系统，还要考虑依赖的底层设施如以太坊是否能够同步升级。但从L2转向独立L1也会不可避免的改变安全模型、流动性、开发者关系和生态协作方式
所以阿简认为Starknet这次的动作更像是是在讨论一个长期取舍：依赖共享底层安全，还是换取更高的技术自主权？撸毛是真的不行了
每次看到群里有人教导别人撸毛
我... ...
我认识的很多工作室都已经关闭
撸毛大佬现在也没什么项目撸
现在市场的几个方向：预测、Perps、AI
预测在我看来风险比合约还大我基本不碰
Perps只能用套利思维去玩
想用磨损拿积分撸空投的
亏钱的风险比较大
AI Agent这块头部交易所都在做
很多公链也在做
但是目前没看到特别出圈的产品
我认识之前撸空投的人
去玩理财、玩港股打新、玩套利对冲
也有玩meme、玩二级
全部分散了
唯独没有坚持撸的了... ...