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When it comes to shorting, beginners look for the biggest drops, while veterans target the weakest links. This time, I didn’t chase the already halved storage spot; instead, I focused on the softest leg in the entire AI computing power financing chain. $ETH weekly chart lost the 200-week moving average, a bull-bear level position, and among the three major mainstreams, it’s the first to weaken. The logic is simple: AI money is borrowed through cyclical financing; as long as interest rates don’t drop and financing tightens, assets propped up mainly by narratives will crack first. I place low-frequency big bets, and I only pull the trigger at these structural turning points. Which link do you think will break first in this chain?$SOL pulled back from around 101 to above 105 last night. I am more inclined to believe that this rebound will continue from today through the weekend, first watching to see if it can test around 106.5 again. After the rally last night, it managed to hold around 105, finally showing some signs of a rebound. OKX SOL/USDT spot first dropped to 100.89 USDT last night, then rallied above 106, reaching a high of 106.54 in the early morning, and mainly consolidated between 105 and 106 in the morning. There is currently some buying around 105, but it has not yet broken through near 106.5. If it falls back to around 104.6 and continues downward, the gains from the surge past 105 last night will not hold, and I will shift to expecting further adjustment. The Solana Foundation has arranged for Alpenglow to launch a mainnet upgrade on the evening of October 21, aiming to reduce the final transaction confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. If the mainnet achieves this goal, transfers and on-chain transactions will no longer need to wait over ten seconds for final confirmation. The mainnet is not yet activated, so the actual performance will have to be seen after launch. This upgrade does not change the regular transaction fee mechanism. A better chain may attract more transactions and applications, but new demand must actually materialize to bring more buying pressure to SOL. For now, I view last night's rise as a recovery after a sharp drop; the upgrade expectation may make it more noticed. Whether there is concentrated short covering is still unknown, as position and liquidation data are lacking. Last night, the US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month; inflation pressure has not disappeared just because SOL rebounded. The cost of borrowing money has not decreased, and funds chasing crypto assets on the rise also$NFLX Q3 revenue guidance is 1.286 billion, with growth slowing from 17.6% to 12%, signaling the growth story is starting to falter. But advertising revenue is expected to double to 3 billion by 2026, becoming the only lifeline.
I believe Netflix and the crypto space are suffering from the same problem — the old engine has stalled, the new engine isn't warmed up yet, but valuations have already priced in the "new engine running at full speed."
Netflix's advertising business won't truly mature until 2027, yet the market is demanding results now. Isn't this just like ZEC? NU7 upgrade, privacy narrative, ETF channels — each is a "2027 story," but the bears are betting it will crash tomorrow.
$BTC briefly fell below 80,000 last night, hitting a three-week low, then climbed back to 82,000 this morning. Ethereum is hovering around 2450, like a guest at a dinner party who can't find a seat.
$ZEC rebounded from 1075 to 1230, up 8.5% in 24 hours, but the mid-term moving averages are still bearish. My 500 short position is still open without adding or cutting.
I think the key focus now isn't Netflix's ad revenue, but the 10-year US Treasury yield. It fell from 5.36% to 5.04%, and only then did the crypto space catch a breather.
Netflix uses advertising to mask slowing growth, crypto uses narratives to mask interest rate pressure. The common point is: the market is willing to listen to stories but unwilling to wait too long.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
@你的爱播Misa @币圈搅屎棍 @bilibili交易姬 @毓鑫YuXin #PalantirQ3Valuation #Korean stocks recover and rebound, can foreign selling pressure ease?
Korean stocks caught a breather today, but whether this breath can continue is another matter.
KOSPI rose over 2% in early trading, with Samsung and SK Hynix rebounding accordingly. But don’t forget what happened yesterday: KOSPI closed down 7.57%, triggered a circuit breaker during the session, Samsung dropped over 9 points, SK Hynix fell 11 points, and foreign investors pulled out 36.2 trillion KRW in one day. Although there was a rebound today, foreign investors are still selling, not stopping. The Korean government is also anxious, holding meetings to closely monitor stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.
Let me tell you two points.
First, this rebound in Korean stocks can ease short-term sentiment. During the recent crash, the market feared margin calls spreading to the crypto market. Now at least the bleeding has stopped, panic won’t continue to escalate, and BTC can also catch a breath.
Second, foreign investors are still withdrawing, which means a rebound does not equal a reversal. Korea is one of the most active crypto markets globally; how tight funds are there directly affects buying power in the crypto space. If Korean stocks are just a dead cat bounce and foreign investors keep pulling out, then Korean crypto funds will also shrink, keeping short-term pressure on the market.
My view is simple. Don’t call it a reversal just because of a rebound, and don’t panic sell because of the recent crash. This wave in Korean stocks is an oversold correction; the attitude of foreign investors is the key. If they continue to withdraw, the rebound is just an opportunity to escape; if they come back, that’s real stabilization.
What do you think? $BTC No change in the pending order after waking up, just a bit away from my take profit, temporarily pulled back.
Today is Friday, if it doesn't go up, it feels like it will fluctuate for two days again.
But this weekend I need to control myself and not recklessly open orders on altcoins.
The impact from the news has already passed.
However, the price still hasn't warmed up. 🎉Market outlook for midday on October 16th.🎉 $BTC outlook: The bears are still basking in their joy, thinking Bitcoin can go to 60,000 or even 70,000 and feeling happy about it? But then the bulls hit back hard with a 3,000-point surge, that's how trading goes—after beating the bears, the bulls get hit too, back and forth, no one can keep winning all the time, no one can keep losing all the time, that's trading. Did you catch this 3,000-point small rebound? I did, and it was quite tasty haha. Many bears were confused by this sudden surge, surely wondering why it suddenly rallied when it was dropping so well? It looked like 80,000 was about to break, but 80,000 is a very important support level; even if it wants to break, it won't break all at once. The first time it hits 80,000 there will definitely be a rebound. If the rebound can't break the previous high of 84,300, it will test the 80,000 whole number support again. Last night I went long at 80,170 because there was a lot of long liquidity to be hunted around 80,000. I waited for a fake break below 80,000 to hunt liquidity below, then pulled back above 80,000 before going long. If it didn't pull back, I wouldn't have gone long because the current trend is down, so going long can only catch rebounds, not the bigger picture. Only when it breaks the previous high can longs play the bigger picture, not just opening a position hoping to make a certain amount. Recognizing the trend is very important. The fake break below 80,000 was followed by a big bullish candle breaking through the resistance zone of 81,835-82,000, and the hourly W bottom pattern was confirmed. Currently, Bitcoin is in an upward continuation consolidation after the rise, choosing its direction. The consolidation range is 82,641-82,000, today during the day Tesla's U.S. stock rose over 2% in after-hours trading, SpaceX up about 1.5%. At the Roadster launch event, Tesla showcased a flying car briefly lifting off and performing aerial rolls, equipped with a cold gas thruster developed in cooperation with SpaceX
$TSLA $SPCX
The cold gas thruster is very unlikely to be used in other regular models. This aerospace-grade technology looks cool, but putting it into ordinary mass-produced cars simply doesn't make sense. High-pressure gas cylinders require extremely high safety redundancies, which not only greatly sacrifice interior space and weight but also frequent refilling completely contradicts daily commuting practicality. Most importantly, it would never pass road regulations and safety inspections
Elon Musk is cleverly combining the cutting-edge tech of both companies to boost after-hours sentiment, which is an extremely sophisticated valuation management strategy
▶️Hedging core business pressure
When the electric vehicle industry is caught in a price war and margin pressure, using aerospace-level gimmicks to push the tech companies' valuation ceiling back up
▶️Strengthening technology spillover
Proving to the capital market the underlying R&D synergy between Tesla and SpaceX, supporting the stock price premium under the geek halo
Next, a rational return after the emotional surge is very likely. This kind of geek toy is unlikely to make a substantial contribution to Tesla's short-term performance. Funds will ultimately return to fundamentals, looking at delivery volume, FSD commercialization, and Robotaxi rollout progress. For investors, hype-driven short-term spikes often come with volatility, but don't blindly treat it as a fundamental turnaround
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus "The market is always right" — this statement is wrong.
Most of the time, the market is right, but at turning points, the market is always wrong.
Those who make money are the ones who bet when the market is wrong.
For example, those who bet during the market panic these past few days have made money.The gang leader has something to say
The Korean stock market recovered and rebounded today, with KOSPI rising over 2% in early trading, and Samsung and SK Hynix rebounding. However, it just plunged 7.57% yesterday, with foreign investors net selling 3.62 trillion KRW. Foreign investors are still net selling in early trading today. The Korean government held a meeting and said it will strengthen monitoring of the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.
The rebound is a recovery, not a reversal. The selling pressure from foreign investors has not been lifted; the buying is just local funds trying to save themselves. Some in the comments say they are buying storage, claiming it is based on specific demand. I accept that logic, but I am not following it. Until foreign investors continuously cover their positions, the rebound can be interrupted at any time.
For crypto, the easing of sentiment in tech stocks is a good thing, but the main conflicts for Bitcoin remain CPI and U.S. Treasury yields. September CPI exceeded expectations, inflation has risen for three consecutive months, and rate hike expectations are suppressing the market. The selling pressure from foreign investors has not eased, so risk appetite cannot rise.
After closing my short position at 81,500 yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, and I am now out of position. Resistance above is seen between 84,000 and 85,000, with support at 80,000. Do not chase the rally or sell into the dip; wait for the rebound to be in place and then observe volume and foreign capital flows before deciding. Holding 82,000 means consolidation; breaking below 80,000 could lead to a deeper correction.
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Korean stocks are a barometer of risk appetite; foreign investors are still selling, indicating market confidence is not stable. Bitcoin is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term. No rush to act; wait for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL #KoreanStockRecoveryRebound Can foreign selling pressure ease? # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC is really strong,
delivering a robust earnings report with both volume and price growth, and guidance surpassing expectations. Although the stock price didn't surge, it seems more like a systemic risk for the sector. There are three reasons:
1. Growth is accelerating. Q3 revenue rose 50.9% year-over-year, and Q4 guidance implies about a 58% year-over-year increase. 2nm has just started contributing, 3nm is already the largest process node, and AI demand is spreading from GPUs to CPUs and network chips, broadening the demand base.
2. Gross margin is controllably declining. Around 66% gross margin remains in the highest historical range, and operating margin still exceeds guidance. The dilution from 2nm is a normal cost of growth and does not indicate weakening pricing power.
3. Market sentiment and fundamentals are temporarily diverging. SOX has dropped 12% in two weeks, TSM has pulled back 13% from its high, yet fundamental expectations are being revised upward. Valuation has fallen from about 27x TTM to about 20x run-rate, offering much better value than in early October.
The inflection point of AI capital expenditure cycles will not first appear in TSMC's earnings report. Cloud providers cutting capital expenditures will first affect orders, then reflect in TSMC's guidance, with a lag of 1–2 quarters. So the earnings report can prove "things are good now," but not "next year will definitely be good."
Therefore, I believe the mid-to-long-term logic remains unchanged, and the current pullback is an opportunity to buy high-certainty growth at a lower valuation. Play it slow.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus I believe the real point worth studying about Netflix is how it has gradually transformed the entertainment industry—which used to rely on TV ads, box office revenue, and program distribution—into a global subscription business.
Traditional film and TV companies need to constantly seek audiences, but Netflix already has a huge paying user base. What it really needs to prove is whether it can continuously provide good enough content to keep these users willing to keep subscribing! $NFLX ZEC privacy coin takes another deep V dive, burying over $17.9 million longs—Is this a shakeout or a market top?
ZEC’s heartbeat is racing this round. OKEx current price is 1220, flat intraday, but the 24h low hit 1074 and the high 1254, with nearly 17% volatility and a long lower shadow; about $17.9 million longs liquidated in the past 24h, basically alongside the market’s 3.7% pullback, burying high leverage first then V-shaped recovery.
First, a disclaimer: some are hyping "development company ECC exit," but that’s old news from January this year. After the team split, ZODL took over maintenance, the network keeps producing blocks as usual, and in July switched to new Zebra nodes. Don’t treat old news as today’s negative.
The fundamentals remain the same: Grayscale’s ZCSH locked about 3% of circulating supply; the NU7 upgrade on 11/5 cut block time from 75s to 25s; the founder has been calling for a 2000 starting price recently, but these are long-term logics, not reasons to chase price today.
Looking at the chart, the current price is pressed below MA5 (1224), MA30 (1231), and below the Bollinger middle band; MACD just formed a death cross but still stands above the super trend at 1208 and MA120, indicating a strong trend with high volatility shakeout, direction undecided. Watch if 1231/1254 can be reclaimed with volume on the upside, and avoid effective breakdown below 1181 and 1208; tonight’s PPI and BTC’s 80,000 level are more critical than anything, with high beta and two-way spikes—don’t get over-leveraged. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZEC #Zcash #privacycoin $BTC's rebound from the low of 79,725 in this round is largely a capital replenishment after overselling, but the latest US inflation data has added a layer of constraint to the market.
The inflation data once again exceeded market expectations, leading the market to directly lower its expectations for a Fed rate cut within the year, and the US dollar index remains relatively strong. For risk assets like crypto assets, the macro environment does not support a strong reversal rally.
So we see a contradictory phenomenon: there is bottom-fishing capital entering the market to support the bottom, but the upward momentum is clearly insufficient, and after a rally, it tends to fall back and fluctuate, making it difficult to sustain a continuous rise.
Market sentiment among on-exchange funds is very divided now: some funds are speculating on short-term oversold recovery and dare to buy at low levels; others are wary of Fed policies and choose to reduce positions and exit on rallies.
Without new large-scale incremental funds entering, most of the activity is funds trading back and forth within the market.
Going forward, focus on two key things: first, the continued changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields; second, whether the market can break through the resistance above with volume.
Currently, it is more of a consolidation and bottom-building phase after the decline, and should not be directly regarded as the start of a new bull market. Macro pressure still hangs overhead, and rebounds may be repeatedly pulled back due to data expectations. Contract trading must avoid chasing highs and selling lows. #Tesla delivery exceeding expectations shifts focus to profit recovery Yesterday's PPI release staged a classic "fake drop" scenario: BTC instantly plunged to around 79,800, touching a critical lifeline, then quickly recovered lost ground, pulling back above 82,000 and entering a high-level consolidation.
$BTC $ETH
📊 Data review:
US September PPI month-over-month 1.3% (expected 0.5%), year-over-year 6.3%, core PPI year-over-year 5.0%, significantly higher than expected. Coupled with the previous day's core CPI inflation exceeding expectations, theoretically a second hawkish blow.
Many wonder: The data is clearly hot, so why did it drop and then rebound?
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000?
1. CPI has already priced in most inflation negatives in advance
With CPI exceeding expectations the day before, the market had already priced in inflation rebound and prolonged high interest rates. The PPI release was just the final panic release, triggering a sweep of all stop-loss orders below.
2. Breakdown: The surge mainly driven by energy
This PPI spike is largely weighted by rising energy and gasoline prices. Market interpretation: a short-term pulse caused purely by oil prices, not a sustained malignant inflation across the entire industry chain. Traders believe the Fed will not immediately hike rates solely based on energy-driven PPI.
3. US bonds and dollar rose then fell, macro expectations diverged
Right after the data release, US bond yields quickly rose, causing brief panic selling; but then long-term yields turned down and the dollar weakened. Market focus shifted from short-term inflation to concerns that high rates will drag the economy, with no sustained rise in rate hike expectations, leading shorts to quickly cover.
4. Contract liquidations completed, spot buy orders support
The dip to 79,800 just tested our previously mentioned 80,000 lifeline, triggering massive low-position short stop-losses + short liquidations covering, combined with spot buy orders supporting, directly pushing price to rebound and recover losses.
#Standard Chartered opens BTC and ETH trading, expanding bank crypto business
Current market status:
The market returned to around 82,000 for high-level consolidation, representing a correction after bearish news, **not the start of a new bullish trend.**
Inflation risks remain, with fierce bulls vs bears battle, and pin action will continue. ETH (the second coin) shows greater volatility, with stop-loss sweeps far exceeding BTC.
In summary: PPI data is indeed hawkish, but the market only used this data to complete a deep washout. The 80,000 lifeline holds, maintaining high-level consolidation; if macro conditions turn hawkish again later, this defense line remains a watershed. Just looked at a set of data, the $80,000 threshold has both bulls and bears placing bets. On one side, ETFs are withdrawing. The latest single-day net outflow is 3,209 BTC, about $258 million. On the other side, large holders are accumulating. Bitfinex data shows that large holders have cumulatively increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC since late August, mainly buying in the $80,000 to $86,000 range. Money is flowing out, whales are moving in, the directions are completely opposite. What's more troublesome is the macro environment. CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations; September PPI rose 6.3% year-over-year and 1.3% month-over-month, with production costs and service prices heating up together. Interest rate hike expectations are rising again, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are both pushing higher. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and BTC is no exception. Currently, BTC is hovering around $82,000, with a market share maintained at about 60%. Below this level, $80,000 to $81,000 is a short-term key support, and further down is $78,000. Above, the $83,500 to $84,500 range is a resistance zone, and it's hard to break through without volume. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Building a position on the Democratic House of Representatives Yes, cost 94¢. The logic is simple: it's a century-old rule that the ruling party loses the House in midterm elections, RCP national average Democrats +8.3, Polymarket/Kalshi both give over 90%. Currently at a floating loss of 5%, hold on, the result will be clear on November 3.📊 BTC Today's Wealthy Mouse Analysis
Current price: approximately $82,331, up 0.83% in 24 hours, market cap dominance 59.63%.
Trend review: On the 15th, BTC intraday once fell to $79,950, breaking below the $80,000 mark for the first time since mid-September, then quickly rebounded to $82,520, completing a typical "false breakdown + wick recovery."
Core contradictions (bearish but short-term stabilization):
• PPI shock retreat, but the rebound is essentially short covering: The panic triggered by the US PPI exceeding expectations has subsided, but the rebound mainly reflects liquidity release from short covering rather than a substantial improvement in fundamental demand. Within 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached 777 million, with BTC long liquidations about $172 million.
• Glassnode warns of a secondary bottom risk: On-chain analysis firm points out that although BTC broke above $80,000 and triggered a rebound, the downward support below is significantly weakening, and the market faces structural fragility risk. $BTC
• Resistance above: $88,000 is the average cost line for investors holding 6-12 months; before the daily close stands above this level, each rebound may face selling pressure from profit-taking.
• Support below: 75,000. 82,000 Tug of War! A Whale Bets $187 Million on the Line, Are You In or Out?
Yesterday, BTC once plunged below 79,694, triggering a total liquidation of 929 million across the network, with bulls falling everywhere. Now at 82,348, looks stable? Don’t rush.
$BTC: The resistance at 88,000 is the cost line for holders over 6-12 months, heavy selling pressure; the support at 78,000 is the "real market average" bottom line. Coinglass data: below 78,166, cumulative long liquidation intensity is 1.695 billion, above 85,909, short liquidation intensity is 1.126 billion. Strategy: light long at 81,800, stop loss at 81,400, target 82,900; short near 83,200, stop loss at 83,650.
$ETH: Current price 2,453, Binance single platform liquidation 157 million, total ETH liquidation 292 million, rebound interrupted. But a whale opened a $187 million long with maximum leverage—BTC opened at 82,409, liquidated at 80,634; ETH opened at 2,455, liquidated at 2,406. Also, a whale sold 1,601 BTC and bought 53,095 ETH over 5 days. Strategy: light long at 2,420, stop loss at 2,400, target 2,475-2,500; short at 2,480, stop loss at 2,510.
Derivatives open interest dropped from 20 billion to 15 billion, leverage is clearing out. Repair rebound, quick in and out. The whale’s stop loss line is your risk control line. XPL still rose about 9%, but the nominal value of contract positions dropped about 14% from the 4 o'clock high.
As of 10:53 Beijing time, OKEx spot price was about $0.08486, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $7.03 million, and an intraday high of $0.08844. OKEx perpetual contract nominal position value was about $8.66 million at 4 o'clock, about $7.89 million at 10 o'clock, and about $7.45 million at 10:53. The current price has fallen about 4% from the intraday high.
My judgment is that after the rise, some positions are withdrawing. The decline in positions does not clearly indicate which side, long or short, exited first, so it is not solid to infer a guaranteed drop later just based on this. At least it shows that the 24-hour price increase and the current contract participation are moving in different directions.
I am more focused on whether the price can break above $0.08844 again, while the positions stop falling and start to rise. If both happen together, the current cautious judgment should be revised; if during the rebound the positions continue to decline, the increase in price alone is still insufficient to prove that new positions have been taken up.
$XPL 20:33, a moment that collectively broke the defense of holders. PPI data was just released, and market sentiment instantly shifted, yet a trader cleared out their strongest cards at this very point: $UNI pulled back from 6.85 to 7.45, $ARB rebounded from 0.172 to 0.18488, $NEAR with a cost basis of 4.58 was almost break-even but had 10% profit cut, and $WLD with a cost of 0.468, risk-free, was also sold in the same minute, then immediately surged to 0.5. This is not an isolated case but the most typical retail investor dilemma in this round of macro data-driven market moves. What’s truly worth analyzing is not the "missed sell" itself, but why it happened precisely at the 20:30 PPI node. Recently, the market’s sensitivity to inflation data has clearly increased; within minutes after data release, capital often first chooses direction, then decides whether to continue. $UNI, as a top gainer, indicates capital actively going long on strong coins after the data; $ARB, though not on the leaderboard, simultaneously recovered, suggesting linked buying in the Layer2 sector; the movements of $NEAR and $WLD are even more critical—they were not driven by emotional pulses but were repriced near their cost zones. In other words, the sell-off at 20:33 precisely hit the inflection point where capital shifted from "waiting" to "attacking." From the market structure perspective, this round of recovery has an easily overlooked feature: strong coins move first, lagging coins follow, and holders, due to consecutive losses in recent days, have mentally switched to a "capital preservation first" mode. $NEAR cost #ETF and Whale Funds Diverge, Can BTC Hold $80,000?
Just reviewed some data; both bulls and bears are betting on the $80,000 level.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing. The latest single-day net outflow is 3,209 BTC, about $258 million. On the other side, large holders are accumulating. Bitfinex data shows that since late August, large holders have increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC, mainly buying in the $80,000 to $86,000 range. Money is flowing out, whales are moving in, the directions are completely opposite.
What’s more troublesome is the macro environment. CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations; September PPI rose 6.3% year-over-year and 1.3% month-over-month, with production costs and service prices heating up together. Rate hike expectations are rising again, with US Treasury yields and the dollar both pushing higher. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and BTC is no exception.
Currently, BTC is hovering around $82,000, with a market dominance of about 60%. Below this level, $80,000 to $81,000 is short-term key support, and below that is $78,000. Above, $83,500 to $84,500 is a resistance zone, which is hard to break without volume.
My judgment is simple. Whether the $80,000 level can hold depends not on the candlesticks but on the funds. If ETF outflows slow and whales keep buying, $80,000 will likely hold, and the market will oscillate between $80,000 and $84,000. If ETFs continue large outflows and whales stop buying, once $80,000 breaks, stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations will pile up, pushing prices down to $78,000 or even $75,000.
$BTC Bao Jie’s short position layout: ambush on the left side, completely different from Boss Shi’s style
Bao Jie’s operation record from mid-October has emerged, adding another contrasting example to Boss Shi’s "long-short game" storyline. Her style is neither chasing shorts at high levels nor stubbornly holding on, but rather an earlier ambush with unified direction and lighter positions.
All three trades are sell-to-open shorts. The ETH short opened at 2530.2 with 10x leverage, about 50,000 U, marking the starting point of this round of shorts; the BTC short opened at 83976.3 with 3x leverage, also about 50,000 U, representing a light position trial; the NEAR short opened at 5.229 with 1x leverage, about 20,000 U, a low-leverage altcoin probe. The three combined total about 120,000 U, with a clear rhythm: prioritize mainstream, layered leverage, altcoins only for probing.
The contrast with Boss Shi is even more obvious. On November 18, Boss Shi went long then short, with BTC and XRP shorts floating profits of about 780,000 U, 10x full position, quick reversal and heavy-handed. Bao Jie, however, laid out shorts early in mid-October; if positions continued into late November, they would cover Boss Shi’s short profit zone, but with much lighter positions, leaning more towards "correct direction, steady profit-taking."
Boss Shi is like a right-side heavy strike, adding positions after direction confirmation; Bao Jie is like a left-side probe, laying out early but controlling risk. The same market move, two capital rhythms, each with reference value.Negative news has landed, so why do I first look for an emotional turning point?
CPI exceeded expectations, and the market's initial reaction was a sell-off. But looking closely, after BTC's drop, it did not accelerate to break the bottom; instead, it found support at a low level. This indicates a key issue: the negative news itself may not be the main point; the focus is on how the market digests it.
When inflation data clearly leans negative, retail investors panic, and leveraged longs get liquidated, short-term selling pressure tends to exhaust easily. At this time, I pay more attention to three dimensions:
First, whether the funding rate turns from positive to negative. Negative funding rates often mean shorts are becoming crowded, and if the price consolidates without falling, short covering can trigger passive buying.
Second, stablecoin premium and on-chain transfers. If the USDT premium rises and large on-chain transfers into exchanges decrease, it indicates selling willingness is cooling down rather than panic intensifying.
Third, the $ETH/$BTC ratio. If BTC stabilizes while ETH continues to weaken, it shows funds are still seeking safety and the quality of the rebound is questionable; conversely, it signals risk appetite is warming up.
What truly deserves caution is not the negative news itself, but if prices continue to fall after the negative news while open interest rapidly climbs—that indicates new leverage is accumulating against the trend, and the next round of liquidations will be more severe.
At present, I tend to believe this round of sell-off has already cleaned out some overheated chips. If BTC can hold the previous low and funding rates return to neutral, a rebound could start at any time. But a rebound does not equal a reversal; the key is whether spot volume supports it.
Negative news is not scary; what’s scary is that the market remains fragile after the negative news. And opportunities often hide in the silence of a price that won’t fall further. #USCPIandPPIbothexceedexpectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? CPI and PPI data missed expectations for two consecutive nights, $BTC fell below the 80,000 mark, and $ETH's top player Bitmine is also stopping additional purchases. Can the dual kings make a comeback?
$BTC: Last night, core PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, hitting a new high since March 2022, causing Bitcoin to break below 80,000 directly.
Why the rebound? The turning point came from the International Energy Agency releasing 100 million barrels of oil reserves, and the 10-year US Treasury yield quickly falling from 5.3% to 5.04%, briefly improving risk sentiment. BTC rebounded and surged to 82,600.
Long positions liquidated $72 million; during the rebound, short positions chasing the rally were liquidated for $19 million. Both bulls and bears took hits in this volatile market.
Technical analysis: Bears dominate, the 80,000 support wall has been broken, and the market has entered a phase of disorderly oscillation. 84,000 is the dividing line between bull and bear strength. Even if the rebound touches 82,600, the overall structure still favors the bears.
$ETH: ETF funds continue to bleed, with BTC+ETH spot ETFs seeing a combined net outflow of $390 million in a single day. Bitmine will reach its 5% holding target in 6 more weeks and will then stop increasing its position.
The 2,450-2,500 resistance zone continues to weigh down; RSI slightly recovered from 37 but remains in a neutral to weak range, suggesting reducing positions on rebounds.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? After the panic, the market experienced a clear risk release yesterday. CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations consecutively, but an interesting phenomenon is:
Gold did not continue to plunge; instead, it rose again.
PPI year-on-year reached 6.3%, but U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and combined with the sharp adjustment in the AI sector driving safe-haven demand, gold returned to around $4160.
So my logic for this gold long position mainly remains:
Capital allocation + safe-haven demand.
In contrast, although the storage sector rebounded today, Hynix still saw large foreign capital selling yesterday. Institutions and retail investors are absorbing it, but the market's subsequent reaction remains to be seen.
BTC has reclaimed above $80,000 with some absorption, but the capital strength is still temporarily weaker than gold.
My view:
The market is moving from panic selling into an observation period.
Some assets are beginning to see capital absorption, but that does not mean the trend has reversed.
What matters more now is to see:
Whether capital has truly returned, not how much the price has dropped.
In the short term, do not chase shorts, nor blindly bottom-fish just because of continuous declines.
Opportunities can wait; there is no need to rush risks.
$XAUT $BTC $ETH Bitcoin has always been known for its high volatility, which makes it seem very different from traditional investment assets. However, comparing its price volatility with that of the US large-cap stocks reveals a surprising perspective. Over the past year, Bitcoin's realized volatility has fallen within the volatility range of the S&P 500 constituent stocks, with a considerable number of large-cap stocks exhibiting even more intense volatility than Bitcoin (Chart 1). Bitcoin's volatility over the past year dropped to 43%, significantly lower than its ten-year average of 64% and five years ago at 81%. Currently, its volatility is lower than that of S&P 500 constituents with volatility below 19%. In fact, not only in the past year but over the entire past decade, Bitcoin's volatility has shown a significant downward trend. As the asset gradually matures, with increased liquidity, higher institutional participation, and more compliant trading channels, its price fluctuations have narrowed considerably compared to the extreme conditions in earlier stages. Although its current volatility remains higher than most stocks in the sample, we believe it no longer belongs to a completely independent category of risk assets. This shifts the investment question from whether to allocate to high-volatility assets to how much allocation to make. The common approach for investors managing high-volatility holdings is to control position size according to their own risk tolerance while assessing the correlation between the asset and the rest of the portfolio. This method is equally applicable to Bitcoin. Data from a single year is insufficient to fully reflect Bitcoin's risk characteristics across the entire market cycle, but this comparison provides investors with a practical reference. For investors who can tolerate volatile stocks 2 million long on South Korea ETF: "Blood-stained chips" after an 18.8% plunge, I've decided to increase my position
South Korea's KOSPI once fell nearly 8% intraday on October 15, with Samsung Electronics down 9.48% and SK Hynix down 11.06%, triggering the exchange's Sidecar mechanism again. But at today's open, KOSPI jumped 1.8% to 5653.99 points, with intraday gains expanding to 3% at one point. I've decided to go long on the South Korea ETF with 2 million at this level.
Why now?
Valuations have dropped to historically extreme levels. According to KB Securities data, KOSPI's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to about 8 times, close to the lows seen during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. Foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics has dropped to its lowest since 2008, and SK Hynix's foreign ownership rate has also fallen below its ten-year average. Foreign investors have net sold about 203 trillion KRW of KOSPI this year, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for 86% of that.
However, fundamentals and stock prices are severely diverging. TSMC's recently released Q3 results show no signs of slowing AI semiconductor demand, and ASML has confirmed that customers' medium- to long-term demand expectations continue to rise. TrendForce forecasts a double-digit increase in DRAM prices in Q4. The market has overinterpreted China's CXMT's technological catch-up—analysts point out that mass production depends on yield rates, and a 50% yield means a large number of chips cannot be shipped at all, making it impossible to change the memory market's supply-demand structure in the short term. #KoreanStockRecoveryRebound, can foreign selling pressure ease?
$KORU Netflix's growth is slowing down, with the advertising business becoming a new focus?
In my view, short-term (next 1-2 quarters) growth slowdown is a priced-in reality. The Q3 earnings report (October 20) will focus on whether advertising revenue is approaching the full-year target of 3 billion, whether membership/engagement shows marginal improvement, and whether the full-year guidance is maintained. If advertising continues to accelerate and profit margins remain robust, there is room for stock price recovery; if advertising again falls short of expectations and guidance is lowered, it will reinforce the "growth deceleration" narrative.
From a long-term perspective, the advertising business is the most valuable incremental and variable factor to track. If it can sustain double-digit growth and gradually increase its share, it could help Netflix stabilize overall growth in the mid-double-digit range, supporting its content moat and pricing power. But if engagement remains weak, the advertising monetization ceiling will arrive early, and the company will resemble more of a "high-profit but low-growth" cash cow, with a corresponding adjustment in valuation.
Overall, the user growth story is basically told, and the advertising monetization story is just entering a critical validation period. This is a typical path for mature streaming giants—neither pessimistic nor blindly optimistic. The key lies in execution pace and continuous delivery of advertising data.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Market Review on October 16｜Rebound Amid High Inflation: Genuine Recovery or Short Covering? Last night, the US PPI surged 1.3% month-over-month and rose to 6.3% year-over-year, with core PPI also remaining elevated. Previously, CPI also exceeded expectations, indicating that inflationary pressure has not cooled down quickly. However, the crypto market did not continue a one-sided sell-off today: BTC rebounded from below 80,000 to around 82,000, ETH returned to about 2,440, and SOL held the $100 mark and bounced back to near 105. I tend to define today as a "technical recovery after bad news was priced in," not yet a trend reversal. Key points to watch next: whether BTC can firmly hold 82,500–83,000; whether ETH can maintain 2,400; whether SOL can reclaim 106–108 and confirm the $100 support is effective; XAUT remains strong, indicating that the market's demand for safe-haven assets has not disappeared. It is currently unwise to turn aggressively bullish based on a single rebound candlestick. Macro high inflation remains the main theme, and position management is more important than directional predictions. For market research record only, not investment advice. This rebound looks quite lively, but to be honest—don't get carried away.
I mentioned last night that the short-term is in a correction phase, but it's still far from a reversal. Whether this morning's rebound can continue depends on how Walsh will express himself later.
🔸 $BTC｜82,000, holding this level means a correction, failing to hold is a trap
After dropping from 79,775 and then being pulled back, there is indeed buying around 80,000. But don't celebrate too early—the resistance zone from 82,600 to 83,000 is no joke. It's easy to push up, but hard to hold.
After yesterday's PPI data release, Bitcoin was once hit down to 79,694, then quickly rebounded to 82,520, which looks strong, but do you know what happened behind the scenes? Within 24 hours, $929 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with longs busted for $777 million. This wasn't buying pressure pushing it up; it was clearly short covering pulling it up, and spot buying didn't keep pace. So whether 82,000 is a solid bottom or just paper-thin will be revealed today.
If it holds, the correction has a chance to continue upward. If it falls back below 81,000, don't hesitate to guard against testing 80,000 again.
🔸 $ETH｜2400 is the lifeline for this correction
Climbing from 2,317, the key now is whether it can hold around 2,400. This level is not arbitrary—2,397 is exactly the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, almost overlapping with the 2,400 round number, both bulls and bears are watching closely.
Holding 2,400 opens the way to 2,450; breaking through that allows further correction. If it doesn't hold, watch 2,380 first, and if weaker, beware of retesting previous lows. On-chain data shows whale addresses reduced about 170,000 $ETH in the past 24 hours, and funding rates have turned negative. Big money is quietly selling off, this signal can't be ignored.
🔸 11:30, Walsh is the biggest risk today
CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, PPI surged 1.3% month-over-month—the largest increase since March 2022, and core PPI hit 5% year-over-year. With this data out, the market most wants to hear Walsh's take on inflation.
For context—Walsh already made strong remarks at Jackson Hole in August, saying inflation hasn't materially eased and the Fed "still has work to do." He never plays the forward guidance game, preferring the market to price based on data. So at 11:30 in Bangkok, he likely won't explicitly say whether there will be a rate hike in October, but if his tone remains hawkish, this rebound could be crushed immediately.
The probability of a rate hike in October has surged from under 20% to over 55%, though it has since eased somewhat, the market nerves remain tight. Conversely, if he doesn't reinforce tightening signals, short-term pressure could ease. But remember—not hawkish enough doesn't mean dovish.
🔸 My stance hasn't changed
Don't chase shorts after a sharp drop, and don't chase longs after a few green candles. First listen to what Walsh says, then see if the 82,000 and 2,400 levels hold.
Having barely avoided the previous drop, don't rush to pay the price for volatility again.
(The above is purely personal review and does not constitute investment advice; manage your own positions.)
#USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflixgrowthmayslow, advertising business becomes new focus #Tesladeliveryexceedsexpectations, profit recovery in spotlight #ETF and Whale Funds Diverge, Can BTC Hold $80,000?
BTC has reached the $80,000 barrier again, with bulls and bears battling it out here.
Let me tell you something: ETFs are selling off while whales are buying, completely opposite moves. The US Bitcoin spot ETF sold 3,209 coins in one day, roughly $258 million. But Bitfinex data shows large holders have cumulatively bought 60,000 coins from late August until now, buying in the $80,000 to $86,000 range. One side is selling, the other buying; in the short term, it's hard to say who's right or wrong.
Adding to this, CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations again, putting pressure on risk assets overall. Whether this level can hold is the key focus going forward.
I have two points. First, short-term sentiment is definitely bearish; ETF funds are withdrawing, macro factors are pressuring, so $80,000 likely won't hold. Second, whales continue accumulating at this level, indicating long-term funds see value near $80,000 and are supporting the dip. So now it's a period of consolidation and bottoming out—don't bet on a one-sided move.
Overall, going with the trend is fine; patiently wait for opportunities. $78,000 is our counterattack position. $BTC $ETH 千刀隐私币ZEC又演深V，1790万多头被埋，洗盘还是见顶？
ZEC这波心跳拉满。欧易现价1220、日内走平，可24h最低砸到1074、最高1254，振幅快17%，一根长下影；近24h多头清算约1790万美元，基本跟大盘那波3.7%回调一起，先埋一波高杠杆再V回来。
先排个雷：有人炒"开发公司ECC退出"，那是今年1月旧黄历，团队闹分家后另起ZODL继续维护，网络照常出块、7月已切Zebra新节点，别拿旧闻当今天的利空。
底气是老几样：灰度ZCSH锁了约3%流通，11/5的NU7升级把出块75秒压到25秒，创始人这两天还在喊2000起步，但都是长期逻辑，不是今天追价理由。
盘面看，现价压在MA5(1224)、MA30(1231)和布林中轨下方，MACD刚死叉，却还站在超级趋势1208和MA120之上，属于强趋势里的高波动洗盘，方向没选完。盯上方1231/1254能否放量收回，下方1181、1208别有效跌破；今晚PPI加BTC的8万关口比啥都关键，beta大、双向扎针，杠杆别上头。DYOR，非投资建议。
#ZEC #Zcash #隐私币散户和大户对着干，我盯8万这个口子
今天翻OKX多空比，看到一个挺有意思的画面。
散户那边$BTC 多空比1.64，一堆人趁着反弹加多，抄底味很浓；大户那边只有0.67，情绪直接标了极度看空。一个1.64一个0.67，两拨人在同一个位置完全对着干。
这种背离我一般会多看一眼。合约里多空仓位永远对等，散户人数扎堆一边的时候，往往是小单凑数，大单子在对面收筹码。散户拼命加多，大户悄悄往空头靠，最后谁给谁抬轿，不难想。
再看盘面，8万这个口子已经被撕开过一次，大饼最低砸到79800，10月头一回破，后来拉3%回82000，$ETH 跟着回到2450。看着是守住了，可防线被踹过一脚，跟没碰过是两回事。
下面还悬着东西。78166一旦破，主流所的多单清算会堆到17亿美金，那是连环爆。
这波我站大户这边。8万能不能站稳就是答案，站稳算我看错，破了就是下方那堆买单接着扛。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ ETFs are withdrawing, whales are buying, but the support below 80,000 is weakening
The US spot $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $262 million in one day, wiping out the inflows from the previous day. The $ETH ETF lost $130 million on the same day, and $SOL has fallen for 8 consecutive days.
CryptoQuant shows the opposite: BTC whale total holdings have risen to 3.03 million coins, the highest since November 2025, with the 30-day accumulation rate the highest since February this year.
But Glassnode analyzed Binance's order book and found that the large buy orders around 80,000 have been absorbed, with new buy orders concentrated around 78,000.
Although the price has returned above 82,000, the support below 80,000 is thinner than before; breaking below would create a vacuum.
Whales are buying, ETFs are withdrawing, and support below 80,000 is thinning.
What really needs attention is whether the buy orders at 78,000 can hold if 80,000 is broken.
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold 80,000 dollars? Actually, the idea that "A-shares don't pay dividends" is an illusion: overall, A-shares do pay a considerable amount of dividends (in 2024, the total cash dividends across the market are about ¥2.4 trillion, a record high). But the problem is that dividends are highly concentrated and many companies do not pay dividends for a long time, so retail investors feel like "they've held the shares for a long time but haven't received any money." The core reasons can be broken down into several layers: 1. Many companies "cannot afford to pay" - long-term losses, negative profits - there is revenue on the books but undistributed profits are negative (due to previous heavy losses not yet recovered) - high debt, tight cash flow, keeping money to survive These companies don't want to avoid paying dividends; they simply can't pay. 2. Growth-stage companies "unwilling to pay" A large portion of A-shares are growth-stage companies in manufacturing, technology, new energy, pharmaceuticals, etc.: - need to expand production - need to invest in R&D - need to repay debt or replenish cash flow - industry volatility is high, so they keep cash to weather downturns For them, reinvesting profits is more aligned with shareholders' long-term interests than paying dividends. Therefore, mature industries like banking, coal, telecommunications, electricity, and liquor tend to pay dividends; small caps, concept stocks, and sci-tech innovation stocks generally do not. 3. Historically, "focus on financing, less on returns" Early A-shares were positioned mainly for financing: - listing was valuable - major shareholders profited by selling shares, pledging, or private placements - dividends were not a key performance metric - regulators mainly "encouraged dividends" rather than "mandated dividends" So many controlling shareholders' logic was: get the company listed → drive up valuation → sell shares to cash out, rather than "pay dividends to shareholders every year." 4. Governance issues: even if there is money, they don't#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
奈飞的故事，正在从“会员还有多少”变成“每个用户还能赚多少”。
二季度营收 125.6 亿美元、同比 +13.4%，利润不差，但市场明显不买账——因为增速在往下走，Q3 指引只有 11.7%，订阅拉新的黄金时代基本翻篇了。
但别只盯着“放缓”。
广告业务才是新剧情：2025 年广告收入超 15 亿美元，2026 年目标约 30 亿美元、直接翻倍；广告层月活观众已破 2.5 亿，直播体育、暂停广告、程序化投放、自有广告技术栈全在铺。
一句话：
奈飞不再是“卖会员的公司”，正在变成“会员 + 广告 + 直播娱乐”的复合体。
旧引擎减速，新引擎还没完全接上，所以股价先疼一下；
但广告，已经是最像第二曲线的那东西。🚨 $BTC Long-term trend shows a pattern worth noting.
Over the past decade plus, Bitcoin has repeatedly followed a long-term logarithmic growth channel, going through bottom accumulation, trend expansion, new highs, and then deep corrections.
📈 Several key historical peaks:
• 2013: $1,242
• 2017: $19,700
• 2021: $69,000
• 2025: $126,000
At the same time, the largest historical drawdowns have shown a narrowing trend.
This may indicate the market is maturing: crash magnitudes gradually decrease, but the gains in each bull market cycle may also diminish.
If the long-term growth channel remains valid, the next cycle target projected in the original analysis is around $350,000 near 2029.
Of course, historical patterns do not guarantee the future, and the channel could fail.
What truly deserves study is whether Bitcoin’s long-term cycle is undergoing a change.📊 #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus. There's no possibility of exceeding expectations; only low-awareness funds would think it's a risk-free arbitrage.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
SUBSCRIPTION - Maturing but not done
Paid subs now >325M globally. Growth slowed from +41M in 2024, but Netflix still sees low penetration vs addressable market. Growth driver now is higher ARPU through price hikes and paid sharing, not just adding users.The data has comprehensively exceeded expectations, and the market did not follow the script, which is indeed quite surprising. According to traditional logic, this should have pushed up rate hike expectations and suppressed risk assets.
This time, the opposite happened: U.S. Treasury yields plunged more than 13 basis points, gold rebounded 1.5%, and Bitcoin repeatedly tugged at the 80,000 mark. Many think this is a reversal, but I see it more as an oversold buying opportunity!
Inflation panic has turned into growth panic, with funds flowing into Treasuries for safety. Some might think that funds flowing into Treasuries are bullish for crypto, but this is especially easy to confuse! Treasuries have two different capital flows! Institutional buying of Treasuries ≠ buying stablecoins, and stablecoins buying Treasuries ≠ crypto buying. These two channels flow in opposite directions and have completely different effects.
Institutions sell stocks and risk assets → buy Treasuries → funds enter Treasury or counterparty accounts → this money has nothing to do with crypto; it is purely a safe-haven move. Funds are withdrawn from risk assets and moved into risk-free assets. This process is a drain on crypto, not an injection!
#USCPIandPPIbothexceedexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year? $BTC $ETH Reader question: Are there any simple and practical tips for phased top-fishing?
Yearly reply: No need for complicated indicators, just remember these few points:
1. Good news keeps coming, but the price no longer hits new highs, start reducing positions in batches;
2. Price hits new highs, but trading volume keeps shrinking, indicating that momentum chasing funds are exhausted;
3. Set profit-taking levels in advance, don’t gamble on selling at the absolute peak;
4. When macro warnings sound and individual stocks weaken ahead internally in the market, reduce your position.
The essence of top-fishing is not to catch the peak, but to hold onto the profits you have already made. $BTC $ETH $OKB Inflation hasn't come down; instead, it's gotten hotter.
The US September PPI surged to 6.3% year-over-year, the highest since December 2022, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.3%, and last month's data was revised up to 5.6%. Wholesale prices are moving upward again.
PPI is an upstream price indicator, and sooner or later it will transmit to the consumer side. So this is not just "past data," but more like an early warning for the next CPI report. The market will find it hard to treat this as isolated noise.
This is completely different from what many expect—"inflation cooling down and the Fed easing accordingly." Washington has already been pushing to reduce forward guidance and downplay the dot plot, and now with an unexpectedly high PPI, it’s basically telling the market: don’t rush to calculate the Fed’s rate cut timing.
Interestingly, last night US stocks first fell then rallied, and BTC still held around 82,000. It seems risk assets are not buying this number, or perhaps they are somewhat numb to it. Once rate cut expectations are delayed, the first to react should be US Treasury yields.
My view is that one PPI report won’t reverse the trend, but it will gradually erode the expectation that "rate cuts are coming soon." The longer the expectation is delayed, the more expensive the valuations of certain assets become, and those will suffer first. This is not a reason for an immediate crash, but it will slowly remove the optimism supporting risk assets.
So I want to ask you: do you think this PPI is just noise, or a prelude to a second wave of inflation? If rate cuts are truly delayed until next year, how would you adjust your portfolio? Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million in a single day,
with $BTC Bitcoin and $ETH Ethereum ETFs shedding a total of $1.56 billion over the past two weeks.
The most notable aspect of this outflow is the portfolio adjustments by institutional seats. Fidelity's FBTC was redeemed by $153 million in just one day, and even BlackRock's IBIT, which usually acts as a liquidity black hole, experienced net outflows. Conversely, Bitwise's BITB managed to buck the trend with a modest $2.21 million inflow despite the freezing market conditions. This pattern of top-tier emitters collectively bleeding capital and mid-sized instruments receiving sporadic patching indicates that traditional arbitrage funds and macro hedge funds are undergoing a very specific position liquidation.
Many market watchers attribute the cause to inflation data exceeding expectations and fluctuating rate hike forecasts, but when breaking down the asset allocation logic of these traditional asset managers, macro indicators are merely surface triggers for risk control.
A large portion of the underlying buyers of Ethereum and Bitcoin spot ETFs treat this channel as a high-beta liquidity bridge tool. #Tesla delivery exceeding expectations shifts focus to profit recovery #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% to a quarterly record high, but the impressive earnings report requires a nuanced perspective.
Positive factors: AI chip demand continues to explode, advanced process revenue accounts for 79%, 2nm mass production contributes to revenue, and high-margin advanced processes drive profit growth significantly outpacing revenue.
Risks: Performance is highly tied to major AI clients, with demand concentration relatively high; ongoing capital expenditures rise due to the Arizona plant construction in the US, and geopolitical factors bring long-term uncertainty. Meanwhile, TSM in the US stock market has a trading logic of profit realization after positive news, so the stock price may not rise in sync with earnings in the short term. In the long run, the ramp-up of advanced process capacity and sustained customer demand are the core factors determining future valuation.Inflation hits back-to-back, leverage bloodbath, tech stocks party—did you hold on to today's market?
Yesterday's market can't be summed up with just "volatility."
CPI just exceeded expectations, and PPI followed with an even bigger shock—year-on-year soaring to 6.3%, the highest since December 2022. The month-on-month increase of 1.3% is more than double the expected 0.6%, and core PPI didn't slack off either, jumping from 4.7% to 5.0% year-on-year. Gasoline rose 20.3% in a month, diesel up 21%, energy prices are like pressure in the veins, pushing from the oil fields all the way to the checkout counter.
Honestly, I was a bit stunned when the data came out. The market was even more shocked—the probability of a rate hike before year-end shot up to around 90%, and the implied probability of an October hike jumped from less than 18% a week ago to about 34%. Pricing on CME FedWatch flipped overnight.
"Fake rebound" of BTC
$BTC plunged to $79,694 last night, just shy of 80,000, then was forcibly pulled back above 82,000. Looks fierce, right? But I advise you to stay calm.
In the past 24 hours, $929 million liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $777 million. This is not a "healthy washout," it's a small meat grinder. Glassnode also issued a warning: although the price has recovered, liquidity support below 80,000 is clearly thinning, with buy orders mostly hanging around 78,000, which is passive defense, not active offense.
In plain terms: this rebound relies on short covering and low-level catching, not genuine bullish money rushing in.
On the charts, BTC is tugging between 81,000 and 82,400, $ETH is weaker, moving in a 2,360–2,440 range like a frog in warm water, and $SOL is stuck around 103, neither up nor down. The total market cap dropped about 3%, but volume expanded 35%—what does this mean? Bulls and bears are fiercely fighting, neither giving in.
The Fear & Greed Index retreated from greed a few days ago to neutral, just over 50. Emotionally, this position is healthier than the previous "greedy" state, but no one should fool themselves into thinking this is a bottom signal.
A noteworthy signal: funds are quietly relocating
An interesting on-chain data point today—one whale/institution address sold a total of 1,601 $BTC over 5 days, swapped for 132 million USDC, then bought 53,095 $ETH at an average price of $2,497.
Honestly, this move tempts me. Although $ETH is currently suppressed, big money continuously moving into $ETH at this level shows some have their own judgment on $ETH's odds. But don't rush to follow; $ETH is still seeing net outflows on the ETF side, with institutions overall favoring $BTC.
$BTC ETFs have net inflows of $2.09 billion in the past 30 days, while $ETH has net outflows of $319 million, and $SOL net outflows of $33.2 million. Funds are selective, not fully retreating.
Tech stocks are a completely different world
TSMC's Q3 net profit hit 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, setting a record high and surpassing market expectations. Demand for AI and semiconductors is as solid as iron.
Netflix is a bit more complicated. Q3 revenue guidance is up 12%, with ad revenue expected to double this year to about $3 billion. The ad package's monthly active viewers have exceeded 250 million. But after Q2 earnings, the stock dropped 8%, as the market remains sensitive to "growth slowdown."
See, on one side macro inflation is crushing risk assets, on the other tech leaders are raking in profits. This is the market's split feeling in 2026—money isn't lacking, but its courage is shrinking.
How to view today?
My feeling is summed up in one word: grind.
Not a crash, but not a reversal either. Leverage has been cleaned out, emotions cooled, and the market is waiting for the October 28 FOMC decision. Before that, $BTC will likely oscillate between 80,000 and 83,000, while $ETH and $SOL need to see ETF funds stabilize before making independent moves.
If you're itching to trade, fine, but don't get carried away. The real winners are not those who frequently jump in and out during volatility, but those who hold back when others are anxious.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 1. Macro: Stagflation pattern confirmed, sharp increase in rate hike pressure. September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. Subsequently, PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, marking the largest increases since March and December 2022 respectively; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. Energy inflation has fully penetrated from upstream producers to consumers. CME FedWatch shows about a 34% chance of a rate hike in October, with nearly 90% expectation of at least one hike before year-end. Among 13 major brokerages, 12 bet on a 25bp hike in December; Bank of America even predicts one hike each in October and December. The FOMC meeting on October 27-28 is the next key milestone. 2. BTC: Deep V rebound but fragile structure. BTC currently around 82,348, up 0.75% in 24h, with an intraday low of 79,694 before a V-shaped rebound to 82,520. In the past 24h, total liquidations across the network reached 929 million, with longs accounting for 777 million; BTC longs liquidated 172 million. ETF funds continue to bleed. On October 15, BTC spot ETF net outflow was 262 million; cumulative net outflow this week is 151 million, following 681 million net outflow the previous week. Institutions are withdrawing; the rebound relies on short covering and liquidity release after leverage clearing, not active spot buying. Among whales, a trader opened a $187 million long position at maximum leverage, holding 1,822 BTC longs, entry price 82,409, liquidation price 80,634, very close to the current price.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus