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#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $SUI is up ~42% in a month, but DeFi TVL sits near $550M against a $2.6B peak last October, and daily active addresses are ~121K vs a 2.2M high. Price is moving without usage confirming it. My read: neutral into the Nov 1 unlock. Hashi mainnet and Samsung Wallet USDC (late Oct) are real catalysts, but they have to show up in TVL first. Levels: $1.13, last week’s high, and $1.00. I turn bearish on a daily close under $1 with TVL flat.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins $ETH 这单100x多，目前在2347.43，现在浮盈+415%，很多人看到2410就跑了，我为什么还拿着？说下盘面逻辑。
4小时看，2315.26插针回踩不破，我就在2347接了。拉到现在，上方MA20（2466）和MA30（2486）是密集压力区，2420只是中间位，不是卖点。量能没缩，MA5/MA10已经拐头，这种反弹没走完。
但重点不是看多看空，是仓位。100x这么高倍，我开单前就认命：2347下方止损，2420不追不跑，等2466-2486区间再决定减仓。大部分人浮盈一百个点就慌，怕利润回吐，本质是开单前没想好止盈位。我吃过这亏，现在浮盈单反而淡定。
不过100x是刀，2420没跑不代表2486还死拿，到压力位该落袋就落袋，夜宵吃一半留一半让市场带。赚的是认知，亏的是贪心。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
CPI just exceeded expectations, and PPI followed suit; this data combination is not very friendly to the market.
US September PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, with expectations at 5.3% and the previous value around 5.5%, so this is quite a jump. Month-on-month it rose 1.3%, while expectations were only 0.5%. Core PPI also exceeded expectations both year-on-year and month-on-month. Coupled with yesterday's CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, both sets of inflation data are continuously on the hot side.
What does this mean? It means the root cause of inflation hasn't been eliminated. Energy prices are rising, commodity prices are rising, and production-side pressures are still transmitting to the consumer side. The market previously bet on no rate hike in October, but now that logic needs to be recalculated. Expectations for another rate hike within the year are heating up, US Treasury yields and the dollar index will rise again, and valuation pressure on risk assets will return.
However, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve. Daly said a rate hike might be necessary but not urgent. Goolsbee said more data needs to be seen. Walsh will have a dialogue with the IMF president at 11:30 this morning to see how he responds to this inflation data. If he emphasizes stubborn inflation and leans hawkish, the market will have to continue to endure. If he downplays the single-month data and leans neutral, sentiment can stabilize.
For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. The 80,000 level is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears; breaking it may trigger stop-loss selling and a downward probe. Resistance is between 83,500 and 84,500, support is between 81,500 and 82,000. $BTC On-chain anomalies don't play dead. In the past 24 hours, a giant whale increased holdings by 5,000 BTC, equivalent to $570 million, while multiple large ETH transfers occurred, indicating smart money is not retreating above 80,000 but accumulating again. On Hyperliquid, after taking a $6.83 million 50x long position, a reverse $13.45 million short position was opened; this reversal should be watched for, as there is short-term selling pressure testing.
The current price is 82,558; the liquidation pressure above is indeed not significant, but technical indicators suggest a need for a pullback. A large number of long liquidation points are stacked around 80,609 below; pushing down to this level would trigger a chain liquidity explosion, which could easily lead to a V-shaped rebound. Just completed a small old trade climbing six floors, the phone vibrated, price is still grinding below 83,000, no breakout yet.
No chasing in operations. Wait for a pullback to 81,200–81,900 to gradually buy long positions, with stop loss set below 79,800; if it breaks down, accept the loss and don't hold on. Take profit first looks at 84,200, and after breaking through, then look at 85,600. Position size should not exceed 20%, don't use 50x leverage as a template—that's a death sentence.
$BTC
#Anthropic reports Q3 revenue rising to $16.8 billion and achieving profitability
@OKX Planet The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not panicking at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found something unusual.
First, $BTC had a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday. BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just bought over 20 million the day before and sold it all the next day, which shows institutions are just testing BTC and immediately pulling back when CPI spikes.
Next, $ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price dropped to 2315, and institutions neither buy nor sell; they are watching.
$SOL is even more interesting: net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise is selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions on previous days, today's volume is almost negligible. The main force crashing the price is no longer ETFs but long liquidations in contracts.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking; they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. The current drop is mainly long liquidation by longs killing longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68; longs haven't fully exited, and the chain reaction hasn't ended.
I still have no positions. Bottom fishing in this market is gambling. I'll wait until the liquidation data is mostly out and the market stabilizes completely.
Key levels: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high Brothers, the opportunity has come again, the dog whales are giving us a chance again!
I guess many brothers have been tricked into bottom-fishing now, shouting "bull market, quick return" after a sharp rally.
But I’m going to act opposite to you all.
The short position at 2700, I perfectly took profit and closed at 2370.
Now this sharp rebound to 2450, I decisively jumped in again!
Why dare to continue shorting at this time?
Look at this 15-minute chart, $ETH dropped sharply from 2529 to 2315, a plunge of over 200 points, then made a very standard V-shaped rebound.
Retail investors see this deep V and get excited, thinking the bottom has arrived, rushing to buy the dip.
But this is exactly the classic bull trap set by the dog whales!
The volume-shrinking rebound after the sharp drop has no substantial positive support, it’s just emotional recovery.
The 2450-2480 area above is a dense previous chip lock-in zone, heavy resistance pressing down.
The dog whales use this V rebound to lure in chasing retail investors, preparing fuel for the next round of downward attack.
This rebound is a perfect entry point for the bears.
Look at my recent entry, shorted directly at 2444.46.
Although there is a slight floating loss now, it’s completely within expectations.
I have sufficient margin reserved to guard against its final extreme spike.
As long as it doesn’t break the previous high of 2529, the bearish structure is unbreakable.
The script below is very clear: the first target is a direct retest of 2400, breaking below means the previous low of 2315. Once 2315 breaks, it will accelerate into a free fall.
Trading is always against human nature.
When most people think a reversal is coming, that’s often when the trap is deepest.
Brothers who want to follow, strictly set stop losses and control your position size.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." We bears have locked in the profits from this rebound!
$BTC
$SOL
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Tonight at 20:30, five consecutive releases, an unavoidable data storm for the crypto world
Tonight at 20:30, five major US data points will be released simultaneously, all closely watched by the Federal Reserve, directly impacting the interest rate hike path, and are the current core drivers for BTC and ETH.
Let's look at them one by one:
Initial jobless claims, previous value 197,000, expected 200,000. Above 200,000 means weakening employment, favorable for rate cut expectations, good for crypto; below 200,000 means employment remains strong, unfavorable.
September retail sales month-over-month, previous 1.10%, expected 0.30%. Above 0.3% means strong consumption, inflation prone to rebound, unfavorable; below 0.3% means economic weakness, favorable. The previous value was very high, the market has already priced in a significant cooldown; if the drop is insufficient, it is a hidden negative.
September PPI year-over-year, previous 5.40%, expected 5.3%. Above 5.3% means inflation stickiness is strong, unfavorable; below 5.3% is favorable.
September PPI month-over-month, previous 0.40%, expected 0.50%. This is a potential risk point: if the release is ≥0.5%, upstream inflation is rising again, reinforcing expectations of high interest rates or even rate hikes, which would hit the crypto market hard.
October New York Fed manufacturing index, previous 7.6, expected 10.25. Above expectations means strong economy, unfavorable; below expectations is favorable.
The five major data points resonate in the same direction, volatility is bound to increase. My advice: don't bet on direction before the data is released; after the release, watch if BTC, ETH, and SOL can simultaneously stop falling. Looking at a single needle is useless; the key is whether capital will catch it. Tonight is not about who guesses right, but who survives longer. The recent US CPI and PPI data release does not bode well for the crypto market in the short term.
In September, the US CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month; more notably, the PPI surged 1.3% month-over-month, far exceeding market expectations. One reflects the price pressure consumers bear, the other reflects changes in production costs. Both sets of data being hot simultaneously indicates that the US inflation problem is not as easy to solve as imagined.
For $BTC and $ETH, the real trouble is not the inflation numbers themselves, but the possibility that the Fed’s rate cut expectations may continue to cool down. If interest rates remain high for longer, market liquidity will be hard to improve quickly, and capital will naturally become more cautious. Coupled with market leverage and sentiment effects, if key support levels break, further selling pressure cannot be ruled out.
The double negative from CPI and PPI does not necessarily mean the crypto market will continue a one-sided decline. There will definitely be an oversold rebound that makes both bulls and bears uncomfortable. The market will ruthlessly harvest in the current situation, so I choose to stay put for now. Respond to changes with stability.
Be cautious in the short term, don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t blindly chase the rebound. The key focus next is whether Bitcoin can hold recent lows and whether there is volume support during the rebound. If it’s just a low-volume rebound that fails to break resistance for a long time, it looks more like a weak recovery; only when the price firmly stands above key levels again, with market sentiment and capital improving simultaneously, will the rebound be more convincing. #USCPIandPPIsurprise, will there be another rate hike this year? The shockwave from the 3.7% CPI hasn't dissipated yet, and the PPI is ready to strike again tonight.💥 Don't rush to call a bull market; first, see where this knife is stabbing.
Let's look at tonight's expectations: PPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.7%, month-on-month 0.4%, and core month-on-month 0.3%. If it meets or exceeds expectations, it means upstream costs are still squeezing downstream, giving the Fed more confidence to raise rates again in October; if it's softer, it's like handing the market an ice pack.🧊
Focus on two key points: first, whether PPI and CPI will form a "double blast"; second, whether service prices continue to stick. If both sides are strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and the 81,000 wall for Bitcoin will be in danger. If broken, 80,000 and 78,000 will line up for testing.📉
What about the market? Bitcoin is tugging near 81,000, with 15-minute and 1-hour RSI at 24 and 11 respectively, indicating short-term oversold conditions and a need for a rebound; but the MACD green bars are still lengthening, so the bears aren't off work yet. The ceiling is between 82,500 and 83,000, the floor is 81,000, and if broken, look to 80,000.📊
Remember, CPI is the heavy punch, PPI is the follow-up strike; not necessarily fatal, but easy to deliver a finishing blow.🫠#USCPIandPPIdoublebeatexpectations #TSMCQ3netprofitexceedexpectations,profitreacheshistoricalhighs - $8.9 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in one day. Is this number big? Normally, it wouldn't be earth-shattering, but placed in the same week that TSMC reported record profits, the context changes. Let's start with the facts. BlackRock and other ETFs sold about $260 million worth of Bitcoin in a single day, and Ethereum saw an outflow of $129 million, totaling a net outflow of $389 million. This isn't a small fund rebalancing; it's top-tier products simultaneously letting go. This synchronicity is more worth watching than the amount itself. My first reaction wasn't panic but to check TSMC's line. TSMC's Q3 profits hit a record high, indicating that the AI narrative is still being backed by real money in traditional markets. Logically, risk appetite shouldn't be poor. But crypto had net selling on the same day, what does that mean? It means some institutions now treat BTC as a risk asset highly correlated with the Nasdaq, rather than an independent digital gold. When valuations in the US tech sector have already run high, they choose to take some profits first and wait for the next catalyst. This leads to an easily overlooked point: this outflow may not be bearish on crypto but more like cross-market rebalancing. TSMC's strength has increased the attractiveness of AI equity, and funds are moving from crypto ETFs to chase that certainty. BTC and ETH here act as the source of reduced positions, not abandoned targets. Looking deeper at the transmission: Bitcoin is under pressure, Ethereum follows down, and altcoins will suffer more because altcoins rely on overflow sentiment. Once the leading ETFs have net redemptions, the most marginal narratives bleed first. Short-term trading rhythm will lean defensive, and rebounds will be easily suppressed Last night, the CPI exceeded expectations, completely crushing the rate cut narrative and causing the market to reprice the risk of rate hikes. $BTC and $ETH weakened in response, but what is truly worth worrying about is not the decline itself, but the market's quietly forming chain of concerns about "another rate hike." This round of macro factors is significant. Going forward, we must closely watch three lines: the direction of the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and whether officials recalibrate their statements and expectations. Any loosening in any of these could instantly rewrite the short-term rhythm. My judgment is: in the short term, there will first be a small-scale recovery, then most likely a continuation of the downward trend. Under this macro pressure, if a rapid rebound does occur, I would actually see it as a signal of a strong trend returning—but the probability of this is very, very low. Yesterday, my $ETH short position was unexpectedly stopped out for profit, and I have now re-entered a short position at a low level. This rhythm of passive stop-profit and re-entry precisely indicates that the current market volatility structure is not friendly to shorts, but the direction has not changed. Right now, two key levels must be closely monitored: whether $BTC can break below 80,000 and whether $ETH can break below 2,360. Once these two levels are lost, that will be the real starting gun for trend acceleration. Mainstream coins like $SOL will most likely face pressure simultaneously, and the linkage effect cannot be ignored. The core logic in one sentence: CPI has extinguished the rate cut fantasy, rate hike expectations have re-entered, rebounds are noise, and breakouts are the signal. #USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus Can't stop laughing, a scammer got robbed by another scammer!
In this Ledger wallet theft incident, one of the biggest victims is himself a scammer. He lost over 60 $BTC, more than four million dollars. All this money was scammed.
His scamming method was a "task scam":
First, he hired people to fake orders and write positive reviews for products,
then told participants, "Your account shows a negative balance,
you have to front the money yourself before you can get paid."
— Front the money first.
On September 22, he transferred the scammed money into three Ledger addresses.
On October 9, all three addresses were completely emptied.
He used the "you must front the money first" trick to scam many people.
Then he used the same method to send the money out himself.
This is not just funny; it shows that on-chain, "who is scamming whom" can reverse:
Today’s victim might be tomorrow’s perpetrator;
Today’s perpetrator might be taken down by someone else the day after tomorrow.
#Ledger investigates Southeast Asia distributor channel fund losses #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
$NFLX Growth Is Slowing, but Advertising Could Be the Next Big Catalyst!
Netflix will release its Q3 earnings on October 20, and the market is watching two key factors: revenue growth and the expansion of its advertising business.
According to the company’s guidance, Q3 revenue is expected to reach $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year over year. Operating margin is projected at 33.2%, compared with 28.2% in the same period last year.
#DailyOrbit After scanning the entire platform, everything is red except ZEC, which surged from 1073 back to 1204 as if injected with adrenaline.
When something abnormal happens, there must be a catch. Is this a desperate counterattack or a trap set by the manipulators?
I stared at this big bullish candle for a long time but eventually moved my mouse away from the close position button.
Why not exit?
Because this rally simply doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
First, the 4-hour volume is even lower than during the dump, purely fueled by short covering and retail chasing longs—an illusionary fire.
Second, there is a heavy resistance from 1240 to 1300 with trapped positions; this small buying pressure trying to break through? Dream on.
Third, the NU7 upgrade benefit on November 5 hasn't materialized yet, ETF funds are still flowing out, and there's no real liquidity in the market; any push up is just a castle in the air.
Fourth, the long-short ratio is 53% to 47%, and retail investors are starting to think the bottom is in. Every time there's consensus bullishness, that's the most dangerous moment.
Right now, shorting offers an almost free risk-reward ratio.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Yesterday's CPI and today's PPI were both bearish, causing a drop from 840 all the way down to 797, followed by an oversold rebound stabilizing above 820.
On the 14th, I anticipated the bearish CPI in advance. This morning, I observed the 4-hour lows continuously rising, with 820 as the primary resistance. If it holds above 820, the upside space will open, so I suggested going long near 810, targeting a break above 820 towards 842.
The evening SMC liquidity capture and the logic of going long as long as 790 does not break is also very reliable and effective. The spike near 80000 down to around 797 cleared and swept out dense long stop losses below. After the spike, it quickly recovered, perfectly filling the 795-800 FVG gap, but the 843-852 gap above has not yet been filled and still exerts a liquidity magnet effect, which I clearly marked in my static posted chart.
In summary, the rhythm control these past two days has been very precise. Today's PPI data, relying on SMC gap filling and liquidity sweep logic, accurately held the 790 support to catch the rebound. However, note that FVG gap filling is not 100% guaranteed but a high-probability event. In the SMC system, such gaps have a magnetic effect, which is the gap fill. Therefore, I believe the 843-852 area is also very likely to be tested.
Go long on BTC at 810-820, target 843-852.
Go long on ETH on a pullback to 2400 without breaking, target 2530, and if it breaks through, hold to 2623.
$BTC $ETH Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not afraid at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found an anomaly.
BTC net outflow was 31.44 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity selling 13.34 million and 18.36 million respectively. They just bought over 20 million the day before and cleared it the next day, indicating institutions were only testing the waters with BTC and immediately stopped when CPI exploded.
ETH net outflow was only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price dropped to 2315, institutions neither buy nor sell, just watching.
SOL net outflow was 12,200, only Bitwise was selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflow, but compared to tens of millions in previous days, this amount is almost negligible. The main force crushing the price is no longer ETFs but long liquidations in contracts.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking, they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing; the current drop is mainly long liquidation killing longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68, longs haven't fully exited, the chain reaction explosion is not over yet.
I still have no positions now; bottom fishing in this market is a gamble. I'll wait until the liquidation data is mostly out and the market stabilizes before considering.
Key levels: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI test tonight
#BTC trading shrinks, can ETF buying recover
#ETH fluctuates after hitting $2500 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Q2 free cash flow dropped from 2.27 billion to 1.53 billion USD (one-time factors such as Warner Bros. deal termination fees), secondly, the company reduced the frequency of viewing data disclosure, increasing market information distrust; annual content investment exceeds 17 billion, and under the multi-front siege from Disney, Amazon, and Paramount, advertisers' budgets may not necessarily cooperate
In the short term, with low expectations + high odds, "meeting targets" is not difficult; the challenge is whether the advertising data lives up to the term "new highlight"; in the mid-term, a combination of 12% growth plus 30%+ profit margin remains a rare asset among large-cap companies, and the financial report mainly brings valuation fluctuations#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The financial report is very impressive, with AI computing power demand continuously being realized, and 2nm successfully contributing to revenue; however, growth is highly dependent on AI clients, and combined with the cost and geopolitical pressures brought by building factories in the US, the risks behind the high growth cannot be ignored.PPI Supplement: The culprit for price increases is energy, but rate hike pricing has not continued to rise
Core PPI year-over-year is 5.0% (expected 4.4%), also significantly exceeding expectations; this time the driver of price increases is energy—energy prices rose 10.8% in a single month, gasoline +20.3%, contributing about half of the commodity price increase, and food also rose 1.2% (BLS, via Barron's).
September retail sales +0.8% (expected +0.3%), but mainly supported by gasoline price increases, other consumption was average, and real wages are still declining (Reuters).
Putting it together means "rising business costs, consumers still spending," making inflation cooling unlikely. A strange point: October rate hike pricing has not continued to rise, remaining around 30% (LSEG 29%, CME about 33.8%), basically unchanged from before the PPI release—the market seems not to believe there will be action in October, with bets concentrated in December (MarketWatch).
FBI teams up with Brooklyn prosecutors to shut down 241 crypto scam websites
Seized 112 servers, recovered about $300,000, no arrests yet. This is a three-year case: an Eastern European scam network targeted Russian-speaking populations in the U.S., using Russian-language Facebook ads and fake investment advisors to lure people into buying crypto and transferring to fake platforms; when withdrawing, accounts were locked or "tax fees" were demanded, and they pretended to "help recover" funds to conduct secondary scams.#Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
I think the next highlight for Netflix is no longer just subscriber growth, but whether the advertising business can truly support a second growth curve.
Slowing user growth is not necessarily a bad thing; the key is how much profit each user can generate.
But one question is worth considering: if advertising revenue grows rapidly but the stock price doesn't rise, is the market already pricing in the good news, or is there a bigger hidden risk?
Do you think Netflix is currently an opportunity or a valuation trap? Three bearish candles, three medical records 🩺
$BTC: Emotional cold 🤧
The market turns cold, triggering a chain reaction of sell orders. But on-chain data shows no mass withdrawal by big holders; support remains near the 400-day moving average, with signs of accumulation at low levels still intact. The weakness lies in sentiment, not in holdings.
$ETH: Capital anemia 💸
ETFs have continuous net outflows, wallet balances are moving out, and some holders are actively reducing positions. It’s not just dragged down by the market; the capital side is truly contracting. Recovery depends on new money returning, which is more difficult.
$SOL: Leveraged sprain ⚙️
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage pushing the price down; spot outflows are limited, and holdings have not changed hands on a large scale. The downtrend is fierce, originating mainly from derivatives.
Don’t just look at the ranking by price drop—it’s easy to mistake emotional fluctuations for trends. Break it down with on-chain data: who is really selling, who is just being dragged down. BTC is seeing sentiment warming, ETH is seeing capital returning, SOL is clearing leverage. Knowing where the pressure comes from tells you what to be cautious about and what to ignore 🔍 #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $BTC's current market concern is not the decline itself, but the rebound after the drop, which can mislead people into thinking the market has stabilized.
The US September CPI exceeded expectations, and PPI was also bearish. The market started to worry about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin once dipped near $79,725. After the bearish news settled, it began to rebound and is currently around $82,000. From a technical perspective, whether it can break through the $83,000 level above is key; otherwise, the market recovery cannot be confirmed. On the downside, watch if the $80,000 support level can hold.
Looking at $ETH, its recent performance has been weak, dropping to a low of $2,315, now rebounding to $2,430. The focus next is whether it can stabilize above $2,400 and break through $2,500. This quick rebound after a big drop indicates there is capital willing to buy at $2,300. However, given that US inflation and Treasury yields have not improved, this can only be considered a short-term technical correction, not a confirmed market reversal.
My current feeling is that this is an oversold rebound. Going forward, the key is whether the macro environment can ease inflation pressure, whether $BTC price can break resistance levels, whether trading volume can keep up, and whether active buying during the rebound strengthens. Only if these improve simultaneously will the rebound have more sustainability. Until these signals appear, caution is advised; do not mistake a short-term rebound for a new upward trend. #USCPIandPPIsurprise, can there be another rate hike this year? #BTCspotETFnetoutflowagain, can institutional buying recover? #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins More worryingly, the rate of leaving (Trumd) in the US doubled over the same period, showing that the main market was saturated. The reason comes from the price increase, tightening password sharing and fierce competition from Disney+, Amazon. This proves that the growth model based on the number of subscribers is no longer sustainable, forcing Netflix to switch to ARPU and profit optimization.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Netflix's next growth driver is not just membership subscriptions but advertising.
As the user market saturates, the advertising segment becomes a new breakthrough point. The core issue: whether advertising revenue will actually increase enough to offset the slowdown in subscriptions while maintaining stable profit margins?
It is necessary to closely monitor advertising revenue, profit margins, and financial guidance in the upcoming report.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Will there be another rate hike within the year? The US BTC spot ETF recorded a single-day net redemption of $261 million, indicating a renewed weakening of institutional buying in this round. The core underlying cause remains inflation concerns triggered by CPI and PPI consecutively exceeding expectations, leading the market to extend the duration of higher interest rates. US Treasury yields rise, and institutions proactively reduce exposure to high-beta alternative assets like BTC, which is a tactical reduction driven by macro factors. Key point to distinguish: single-day outflow ≠ institutions being bearish on BTC long-term. Single-day data is an emotional signal; the trend depends on whether outflows persist for multiple days. If it’s just a single-day pulse redemption, the damage is limited; once net outflows continue for several days, it means continuous withdrawal of spot buying, causing rebounds to lack the crucial incremental support and making the market more prone to pressure. Capital logic: ETF subscriptions represent new off-exchange buying, while redemptions bring spot selling pressure. In a market already characterized by weak liquidity and lackluster rebounds, such outflows tend to amplify short-term volatility and suppress rebound heights. But it’s also important to note that ETFs are only one institutional entry channel; on-chain whales and overseas off-exchange buying are not included in this statistic, so the trend reversal cannot be judged solely based on this data. $BTC $ETH $SOL Writing
🚨 $BTC: $966M in Long Liquidations — But Whales Aren’t Selling! 🐋
Bitcoin just took another hit, wiping out $966 million in leveraged long positions. But the bigger question is: Who is selling, and who is buying the dip?
📉 Inflation Is Back in Focus September PPI jumped 1.3% against expectations of 0.6%, while CPI reached 3.7% year-over-year. This has intensified concerns about the Fed’s next move, putting pressure on risk assets.
#DailyOrbit Tesla is set to release its full financial results for Q3 2026 on October 21.
The profit side is even more concerning. Referencing Q2 data: revenue reached $28.2 billion (up 25.5% year-over-year), but operating profit was only $398 million, with operating margin plummeting to 1.4%; free cash flow was negative about $1.1 billion, and capital expenditures reached $5.8 billion. Full-year Capex is expected to exceed $25 billion, mainly for Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI infrastructure. Market consensus for Q3 revenue is about $27.8-28.0 billion (roughly flat or slightly down year-over-year), with adjusted EPS of $0.43-0.45 (down more than 10% year-over-year).
On valuation, the current market cap is about $1.4 trillion, with a trailing P/E ratio exceeding 300, fully pricing in optimistic scenarios of Robotaxi full commercialization and large-scale deployment of Optimus. However, Robotaxi is currently operating only on a small scale in limited cities like Austin, FSD without supervision is progressing slowly, and Optimus has no large-scale sales yet. Historical experience shows related timelines have been repeatedly delayed. If Q3 guidance fails to provide a clear path to profitability or commercialization milestones, or if gross margins continue to be under pressure, the downside risk to the stock price is significant. In contrast, competitors like BYD show more resilience in balancing volume and profit, and the global EV market landscape is no longer favorable to Tesla
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Combining CPI and PPI exceeding expectations, on-chain giant Wintermute has voted with real money! It holds an open position of 87.34 million on Hyperliquid, with a short exposure as high as 86.4% (75.45 million), heavily shorting $ETH, $SOL, and the S&P 500, with unrealized losses of 3.97 million and cumulative profits of 209 million. Coupled with $BTC's 4-hour EMA bearish alignment and MACD death cross, institutional high-level hedging is evident. The 80,000 mark is a defense line, but with whales suppressing so heavily, only when shorts cover or the 4-hour bottom fractal forms, with macro and technical resonance, will it be safe. Hold steady! #USCPIandPPIexceedexpectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Will it beat?
- *Last quarter (Q2) it beat by $0.01*: Reported $0.80 vs $0.79 est, but revenue $12.56B slightly missed $12.58B est, and stock still sold off 8% on weak guidance.
- *Trend into this print is cautious:* The $0.82 consensus is unchanged last 30 days, but down 2.4% vs 90 days ago (was $0.84). Analysts have been trimming - Erste Group cut FY27 to $3.79, Morgan Stanley cut target $83 to $80, KeyCorp $92 to $85 this week. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus below expectations#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 🚨 $ETH breaks below 2400! This time, don’t rush to call a bottom; the market has already given a warning!
Brothers, Ethereum’s current trend is even uglier than expected.
How many people previously treated 2400 as a solid floor? How many started shouting V-shaped reversal when seeing a rebound at 2580? Some even thought 2500 was firmly held and that it would soon surge to 2700.
And the result?
📉 2400 was effectively broken, the price once dipped near 2310, and now it’s oscillating around 2370 again.
What’s most worrisome isn’t just how much it fell, but that this level has been tested repeatedly. Before, it could be pulled back by lower shadows; now even the real body has broken through, indicating this support zone is under greater pressure.
Previously, there were buyers stepping in when it dropped; now it’s a question of whether the buying funds can still hold.
What I least want to see now is people assuming this must be the bottom just because it’s dropped a lot.
Remember these key levels:
🔻 2400: A critical area that has shifted from support to one that needs to be reclaimed.
🔻 2310: Recent low area to watch if it can hold.
🔻 2300: If this is lost, the market may look for new support, but don’t prematurely assume where it will fall.
🔺 Above 2500: Only if the price can firmly stand here again will it be more favorable to repair short-term sentiment.
Adding to this, the macro uncertainty brought by US inflation data may further amplify short-term volatility. Bulls wanting to turn the tide can’t rely on faith alone.320,000 liquidations, $930 million vanished into thin air! BTC just finished a "fake fall," next week is the real test
BTC current price around $82,000, $932 million liquidated in 24 hours, bulls lost $796 million — bottom buyers took the hit first. It briefly dropped below 80,000 this morning, then shorts covered forcing a strong rebound, but don’t be fooled: 80,000-81,500 is the average ETF holding cost line, if it closes below here, all regular ETF holders turn to losses, stop-loss orders will avalanche down.
ETH is worse: 2,500 is precarious, 2,650 has turned from support into resistance, ETFs keep bleeding, any rebound is a window to escape.
SOL: struggling near 102, the 50-day EMA at 107 is the ceiling, breaking below 99 targets 96 directly.
Next week’s key points: BTC’s 80,000 close line decides life or death; ETH must hold 2,500; SOL’s 99 is the last cover. Before FOMC, don’t use leverage to bet on direction.
#比特币爆仓 #以太坊 #Solana #加密货币 #美联储加息#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.$NEAR 下午那会儿我看 4.5 附近磨了半天，量缩得跟死了一样，心想这玩意儿要么继续阴跌要么来根大的。结果 Bitwise 那个 ETF 持仓的消息一出来，直接一根大阳捅到 5.17。我 4.576 上的车，50x，现在浮盈 590% 出头。
说实话，拿到现在我自己都觉得离谱。
但你让我现在追？我不敢。5.17 那根上影线摆在那儿，MA120 压在 5.21，这位置往上每走一步都是解套盘在砸。我见过太多次了——消息出来拉一根，然后慢慢阴跌回去，追的人全埋里面。
我这单准备 5.17-5.20 附近开始减，能吃到这就谢天谢地了。50x 这东西，浮盈再多你不当回事，一根针回来就什么都白搭。
前两天 STRK 那单我也是这么想的，从 599 拿到 1332，最后还是 0.098 附近跑的。跑完第二天就插了一根针，差点全吐回去。所以这次我学乖了，不贪。
你们要是没上车就别追了，等回踩 4.8-4.9 再看。真要冲 5.21 站稳了再说。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.Right now it feels more like a shakeout, not a time to chase the rally. Can FIL's halving narrative really carry it on its own? I've been watching FIL's derivatives structure lately, and the more I look, the more it seems like a kite tethered to BTC's waist. When the funding rate flips positive, bulls rush to add positions, but open interest doesn't keep up, indicating leverage is increasing while spot is retreating. This kind of divergence is often not a start but a game of speculation. FIL's own story is weak; a halving bullish factor, when BTC is sideways or drifting down, basically just hands bullets to the bears. In past halving cycles, FIL's independent rebounds were built on BTC's risk appetite warming up. Once BTC weakens, FIL's pullback elasticity is even greater, showing poor resilience. What is the derivatives market trading now? It's trading whether BTC can hold steady, not how much incremental gain FIL's halving can bring. Perpetual contract open interest hasn't expanded significantly, and options implied volatility is low, indicating no one is betting on a big move ahead, more like short-term gambling. Under this structure, part of FIL's halving expectation is priced in early, but no one is willing to chase with real money. There's only one bullish path: BTC first stabilizes, funding rates return to neutral, open interest moderately expands, then FIL might catch up on the halving narrative. The bearish risk is more direct: as soon as BTC wobbles, FIL's long leverage will be forced to liquidate, creating negative feedback and falling faster than BTC. Before the altcoin season arrives, FIL is unlikely to break away from BTC.