Orbit Post Sitemap
PYTH +57% in 22 days, why is the breakout on 10-15 different?
$PYTH rose from 0.060 on 09-24 to 0.0946 today, a 57% increase in 22 days. Today it gained +18.36%, reaching a high of 0.10093, with a trading volume of $30.9 million, which is 1.7 times the 30-day average volume.
This is not an emotional peak, but a three-stage structure:
Accumulation (09-30 to 10-13): Price oscillated narrowly between 0.073–0.090 for 14 days, daily volume 4–5 million. A typical "building position zone" — volume stable, price converging.
Breakthrough (10-14): +3.07% to surpass the 0.085 resistance level, volume did not increase — a "breakthrough probe."
Volume surge (10-15): +21.13%, highest at 0.10093, volume 29.74 million, 4 times the average volume of the previous 14 days. Funding rate neutral, open interest increased only 8% — the increase mainly from spot trading, not leverage. The structure is the cleanest.
Why now? Solana Q4 DeFi (Kamino, Drift) TVL is recovering, directly benefiting oracle call volume. $PYTH, as Solana's mainstream oracle, has fundamental support.
However, the daily candle at 00:00 has already retraced -2.72%. A pullback to 0.090 without breaking it is a healthy confirmation; a volume-driven break below 0.085 means the breakout failed.
The 4H chart is testing the 0.10 whole number level for the first time. Do you think $PYTH can hold above it? 兄弟们，昨天减半第一天，1.27砸回1.08，多少人骂骂咧咧地说“利好出尽，FIL完蛋了”。结果今天官方就发了一张重磅长图——“The Filecoin Flywheel（飞轮）”，直接给你上了盘硬菜。 看着这张图，我反复读了三遍，心里只有一句话：短期的“价格炒作”结束了，长期的“价值飞轮”正式启动了。 别被日线级别的波动蒙蔽，我们把官方这篇“本月重大进展”拆开，看看减半后真正的底层逻辑发生了哪些质变： 🎯 质变一：Solstice提案正式落地，奖励逻辑彻底变了 官方原文：更多份额分配给为网络带来付费客户的服务；共识挖矿份额减少；未赚取的服务份额将被销毁。 这太狠了！以前矿工只要挂着硬盘就能吃大锅饭，现在不行了。这部分奖励只给“能拉来真实客户”的服务商。如果没人拉来客户，这部分奖励就不会释放，直接销毁。 这直接堵死了矿工的“通胀砸盘”逻辑，逼着整个网络去搞真实业务。 🎯 质变二：供应“水龙头”被拧死了 官方确认：Protocol Labs 和 Filecoin Foundation 的分配锁定期，如2020年计划那样如期结束。每天进入流通的新FIL数量大约减少了75%。 每天抛压从CPI bearish pressure mounts: rate hike expectations rise to 40%, bulls wiped out overnight
CPI data is bearish, traders have raised bets on the next rate hike to 40%. US stocks and the crypto market plunged in sync, with the Nasdaq down nearly 2%, and BTC dropping to around 82000.
▪ Asia session worsens the situation
Korean and Japanese stock markets opened with a plunge, risk appetite sharply declined. Whether the afternoon session can hold is key for the short term, but the afternoon suffered heavy losses, and the Asia session failed to stabilize.
▪ Liquidations concentrate and crush the bulls
Nearly $500 million liquidated in 24 hours, bulls lost about $400 million, leveraged long positions were heavily liquidated.
▪ US stocks remain pessimistic in the evening
US stock opening expectations are weak; if the decline continues, the crypto market will struggle to strengthen independently.
For now, watch the end of the Asia session and the US market open, don’t rush to catch falling knives. #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high $BTC looks for a rebound continuation. It closed 24h at +0.39%, after dipping to 79,732.3 before pulling back. During the dip, the amount of long positions liquidated was roughly twice that of shorts; this round of leverage was squeezed out. The pressure from long liquidations has already passed once, and the price still closed in the green, indicating some support near the previous low. Options trading on the day leaned bearish, even higher than the ratio in the open interest structure, with most new trades being protective buys. Sentiment remains defensive, so there is less fuel for a decline. The moving averages on the chart show a bearish alignment, which is a result of the previous drop; moving averages themselves lag. The previous low has already been tested once and held; now the focus is on that previous low itself. Conditions for a bearish reversal: breaking below 79,732.3 and failing to recover, indicating that after long positions are cleared, no one is stepping in to buy, so treat it as a new low and invalidate the bullish view."The Chain is Making Money, but the Coin May Not Be Valuable"
All three chains have income, yet their prices remain stagnant. The market begins to ask: who exactly is the profit flowing to?
$BTC's transaction fees and block rewards go to miners, not coin holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, creating continuous selling pressure. Coin holders receive no dividends, only share in scarcity. No matter how active the chain is, it’s hard to directly push up the coin price; BTC relies on consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH's Gas fees are diverted to L2, weakening the mainnet's value capture. Although EIP-1559 burns fees, the more prosperous L2 becomes, the less burning occurs. Stakers receive issuance and priority fees, but issuance dilutes non-stakers. The cash flow narrative of ETH increasingly requires explanation.
$SOL's fees and MEV go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting ordinary coin holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, while coin holders can only wait for price appreciation. It’s more like using inflation to buy security.
On-chain income does not equal token value. The key is not whether the chain is busy, but whether the income returns to the token. Tokens that cannot capture income can only rise based on sentiment and consensus; those that can capture income have a long-term foundation.
So, before asking if the chain is busy, ask whose pocket the money is going into. Are you holding an asset, or fuel working for someone else?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I think the market now views Netflix like an old director who has made hit movies for many years.
The audience is still there, advertisers have come, but investors are starting to ask: how many new stories can you still produce?
Q3 revenue is expected to be $12.86 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase; operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, further up from 28.2% in the same period last year.
This shows that Netflix not only wants to rely on subscription fees to sustain itself but also wants advertising to become a new cash machine.
But the problem is very real: whether advertising can support a second growth curve is the real highlight of this earnings report.
My view is that revenue growth is expected, but the increase in profit margin is what deserves close attention. After all, no matter how good the story is, the final accounting matters.
In summary, Netflix is transforming from a content seller relying on memberships into an entertainment business that sells both tickets and advertising.
#NetflixGrowthMaySlow AdvertisingBusinessBecomesNewFocus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 看空索尼：PS主机步入周期尾声，硬件销量持续下滑，游戏业务收购减值、独占内容产出不及预期。AI逆向技术加速打破Switch等平台壁垒，模拟器与破解侵蚀主机生态护城河。影视业务增长乏力，消费电子萎缩；图像传感器竞争加剧，AI布局滞后。集团业务分散，资本投入效率偏低，叠加汇率扰动，中长期盈利缺少强支撑。#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Not optimistic#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue?
From the trend, $SNDK SanDisk is not very expensive compared to previous highs, but the rise of storage sectors like SanDisk and Hynix relies more on the AI market.
Personally, although AI and other tech stocks have pulled back somewhat, looking back at this round of AI rally 🚀 the duration hasn't been very long, so waiting at low levels for value to return.
The expansion on the demand side can indirectly stimulate the rise of storage sectors like SanDisk and Hynix.
In the short term, although there is news that ChangXin Storage has made a technological breakthrough, the market worries that prices will drop. In reality, it still takes time and market testing to reach actual mass production and manufacturing costs. Also, it should be noted that ChangXin Storage's breakthrough is for a specific storage technology, not a comprehensive breakthrough, so storage giants like SanDisk still have certain technological advantages.
Additionally, multiple US storage sectors have declined, which I personally think may be related to market expectations of tightening liquidity. Whether SanDisk's business can maintain high growth is also related to demand and liquidity, so be aware of the risks!
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus RaizelXbt剛剛這單$BTC 日內短線空單，九點多插針剛好觸發79868止盈，80711附近進場，差不多一千點的盈利。
80711–81063是潛在空頭回調區，紅色框（79868–80711）是急跌承壓區，這種"快速插針+弱反彈"的結構，若無量能配合，反彈更傾向於空頭繼續施壓，RaizelXbt的做空邏輯還是很有參考價值的。# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC delivered an impressive performance, reflecting the continued strong demand for AI chips and reaffirming the critical role of advanced process technology in the global semiconductor industry.
Amid the ongoing growth in AI computing power demand, TSMC is well-positioned to continue benefiting from industry development thanks to its advanced process and technological advantages.
However, record-breaking earnings do not necessarily mean the stock price will keep rising. Attention should be paid to whether AI orders can sustain growth, whether capital expenditures will further expand, and whether market valuations have fully priced in future expectations.
Personal view: The long-term logic of the AI industry remains worth watching, but investment decisions should not be based solely on earnings; growth sustainability and current stock price rationality are also crucial.
What do you think? Can TSMC's strong performance drive the entire semiconductor sector to continue strengthening?#Netflix growth may slow down, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix's core dilemma: the global paid subscriber base is nearing its ceiling, and subscription revenue growth driven solely by price increases and cracking down on account sharing has clearly slowed down; the advertising business is growing rapidly but still very small in scale, representing a "small and fast" second growth curve rather than an engine that immediately supports the main business.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Netflix's advertising tier continues to grow, but margins remain a key focus. Advertising could become a major revenue driver, but it will take time to scale. Is the ad business a true second growth pillar, or just a nice add-on?
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Tesla vehicle deliveries have been announced ahead of schedule and exceeded expectations; however, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow are very unlikely to beat expectations and may even fall below consensus estimates, which is the biggest current contradiction
1. Already realized leading data (partially priced in)
• Vehicle deliveries: 486,500 units, consensus expectation 463,800, +5% above expectations; deliveries > production, inventory is being reduced
• Energy storage installations: 13.7 GWh, almost flat quarter-on-quarter, not impressive, slightly below many sell-side expectations (previously many expected 15 GWh+)#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike this year? The prices we see now are priced with a 28% rate hike probability. The PCE+GDP data is very likely to push the rate hike probability higher. Data still has continuity.# US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
US inflation is heating up again, with both CPI and PPI surpassing expectations, drawing market attention back to the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
CPI reflects the price pressure faced by consumers, while PPI reflects changes in production costs for businesses. Both data rising simultaneously means inflationary pressure may not only exist on the consumer side but could also be transmitted further along the industrial chain.
So, will the Fed raise rates again this year?
The key depends on three signals ahead: whether core inflation continues to rise, whether the labor market remains strong, and whether energy prices can stabilize.
If inflation continues to rebound, the Fed may delay cutting rates or even reconsider raising them; if inflation is only driven by short-term energy shocks and economic growth begins to slow, the Fed may choose to wait and see.
Personal view: rather than betting on whether the Fed will hike rates immediately, it is more worthwhile to focus on whether the market’s expectations for rate cuts are reversing.
Once high interest rates persist longer than the market expects, the dollar, gold, and US stocks could all face new volatility.
Going forward, inflation data and statements from Fed officials will be important variables influencing market trends.
What do you think, will the Fed raise rates again this year? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. $STRK Bearish Perspective: Data is more honest than sentiment (￣▽￣)~*
1-hour EMA shows a bearish alignment, trend favors sellers. The long-short ratio is 180%, longs are too crowded, which is often not a good sign. Looking at cost: average long price is 0.0822, average short price is 0.0875, current price is 0.0845. Shorts have about 84% unrealized profit, longs have less than 20% profit left, it's clear who is more anxious (・ω・)ノ#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 奈飞的核心矛盾：全球付费会员基数接近天花板，单纯靠涨价、打击账号共享拉动的订阅收入增长已经明显减速；广告业务增速很高，但体量还很小，属于“小而快”的第二增长曲线，而不是立刻撑起大盘的引擎。⚠️风险提示：仅为个人复盘记录，不构成任何投资建议，注意风险。
CPI数据落地，不少人担心$BTC迎来大跌😨
先冷静看本质，这次麻烦点在于核心CPI同步走高至2.6%，上涨并不单纯由油价带动，内部基础物价同步抬升，通胀压力会更顽固。
数据公布之后，BTC快速从83900回落至81850一带。核心CPI环比0.3%，高于市场预估的0.2%，同比2.6%同样突破2.5%预期。受此影响，两年期美债收益率直接上行13个基点，市场对于10月加息的概率预期，从原本不到22%直接飙升过半🔥
短线盘面逻辑很清晰，流动性收紧预期带来资金抽离，叠加恐慌踩踏，美元走强的环境下，风险资产集体承压。下方重点观察81500–80000支撑区间，一旦失守，下一支撑看向79000；上方阻力区间放在83000–83500。
操作上不要急于进场抄底，插针震荡大概率还会延续。可以等价格回踩81000附近，出现放量止跌信号之后，再考虑轻仓试多，止损放在79800，反弹目标看82700–83500。核心通胀居高不下是当下最大的利空，美联储鹰派的底气依旧充足🦅
预期升温，盘面持续承压
$BTC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 台积电Q3又炸了，净利润7630亿新台币，同比暴增68.7%，历史新高。但币圈一毛钱好处没捞着$BTC 82,430，$ETH 2,400，$ZEC 1,147，全在原地打转。
我认为台积电赚翻这件事，对币圈最扎心的不是“利好没传导”，是连“AI叙事的汤”都快喝不上了。
台积电现在HPC（高性能计算）占营收68%，3纳米和5纳米吃掉了先进制程的七成产能。AI大佬们排队抢芯片，币圈连队都排不上。
比特币在8.2万磨了一周，资金费率+0.0029%，多空都懒得动。像个被班主任遗忘的转学生，不犯错，但也拿不到小红花。
以太坊RSI中性。我手里没仓位，但看着SOL和狗狗币在旁边蹦跶，ETH像个老实孩子，热闹全是别人的。
ZEC 24小时爆了189万美元空单。灰度ETF规模悄悄破了10亿美金，NU7升级倒计时。这哥们儿在角落自己吃小灶，跟大盘基本脱钩。
我认为现在最该做的是管住手。 台积电的资本开支砸到600-640亿美元，钱全进了AI基建，不是币圈。等这波AI烧钱潮过了，再看水位涨到哪儿。#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 那么SNDK如果让我接的话，可能在1000-1100会更让我喜欢。而且这一波修复感觉能去1400-1450就撑死了。 $SNDK 闪迪｜1372这个位置已经在盘前被刺破，但我的判断标准只看日线收盘形态，收盘没能重新站上，后续目标看向1157。
前一次价格距离目标还差28点，我当时判定不算有效触及；今天盘前冲高至1341后，顺利摸到了1372。不过交易纪律不会松动：盘内短暂击穿不算有效破位，必须等日线收线，如果收盘站不回1372，才确认支撑失效。
盘面信号已经很明朗，前一日尝试站上1420，始终无法重回1500上方，开盘后继续走弱。这一轮存储板块的下行，并不是短期洗盘，而是趋势性的回落行情。
1372作为日线级别的核心支撑，如今盘前已经下探刺破，这个阶段我不会盲目进场抄底。在明确的止跌信号出现之前，每一轮反弹优先当成减亏机会，不要当成趋势反转。
若日线收盘收回1372：定义为超跌反弹行情，第一处压力看1420，更强阻力在1500，不能站稳1500，大方向依旧偏空。
若日线收盘确认跌破1372：下方下一目标看1157，从1341到1157还有不小的下行空间。
趋势没有出现扭转信号不去主观猜底部。行情想要真正转强，前提是先收复1372之后再突破1500，全程程下跌趋势$SNDK #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 奈飞Q3，10月20日盘后出财报。
公司给出的基线：营收128.6亿，营业利润率33.2%。
广告业务是看点，但只是修补，很难逆转整体增长放缓。
现在预测市场69%押会超预期，乐观已经打满。
达标≠超预期；想要Yes，必须会员或者广告业务大幅超出市场想象。
盈亏比上No这边占优。
⚠️个人观察，非交易建议#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 财报可能会不太好看#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind the.CPI的冲击刚消化完，PPI数据再度超预期发难⚡
下午$ETH好不容易从2315的低位慢慢回暖，反弹站上2400上方，原本我计划等价格在2400-2450区间涨势停滞，再进场第二笔空单。没想到晚间PPI数据一出，这轮短暂的回升直接被打断。
这次数据明显超出市场预估：PPI年率来到6.3%，此前市场预期只有5.3%，创下近五个月新高；月率录得1.3%，对比0.5%的预期直接大幅走高，零售数据0.8%同样强于预期。
CPI、PPI接连爆冷，而PPI代表上游生产成本，它的走强意味着通胀压力还会持续向下传导，短期通胀很难回落。同时零售数据亮眼，代表经济韧性仍在，美联储没有充足的理由转向宽松。这也是我持续看空盘面的核心逻辑。
$BTC 这边81000、80000两道支撑岌岌可危，ETH下午这一波反弹，在重磅数据压制下，更像是给空头提供入场机会。过去24小时已经有18.5万人遭遇爆仓，爆仓金额9.8亿美金，绝大多数都是多头订单。
首笔空单176点利润已经顺利落袋，接下来继续等反弹机会，只要上涨乏力，第二笔空单顺势跟进。
#通胀数据接连爆表，盘面承压继续考验支撑
$ETH $BTC $OKB frankly had a premium due to the launch event before. Thought perps had some big positive news to consume OKB, but in the end found out it had nothing to do with it, directly a big negative.# Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Only a few days left until streaming giant Netflix releases its Q3 earnings report—answers will be revealed after the U.S. market closes on October 20.
📊 First, let's look at the company's "reference answers":
▪️ Revenue forecast: about $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year-over-year
▪️ Operating margin: 33.2%, compared to only 28.2% in the same period last year
🔍 But what the market is really watching are these two questions:
1️⃣ Is growth really about to "slow down"?
A 12% growth rate is no longer impressive for Netflix. With user growth nearing its peak and multiple price hikes, how long can price increases continue to support growth? This is the market's biggest concern.
2️⃣ Can the advertising business become the "second curve"?
This is the biggest highlight of this earnings report! How many subscribers are on ad-supported plans? How much revenue does advertising contribute? Has ARPU (average revenue per user) truly been boosted? Once these "hard data" are disclosed, they will directly determine whether Netflix's future growth story holds up.
💡 What to make of it?
On paper, revenue is steady and profit margins hit new highs—data looks good. But the key question is whether the 33.2% high profit margin is "saved" or "earned"? If it comes from cutting content investment, Q4 guidance may disappoint investors.
Therefore, the core of this earnings report is not "whether they made money," but rather—does the advertising business really work? $CORE ✅Top 5 Core Bearish Reasons from Overseas Traders, X (Twitter), and Overseas Research Reports 1. Fundamental Flaw in Token Emission Model (Most Commonly Mentioned Overseas) Overseas users highly value tokenomics: CORE’s BTC staking system continuously issues new CORE tokens as rewards for every BTC staked, flooding the circulating market with new tokens. In contrast to STX: STX’s bonding mechanism involves BTC coming in, locking STX, and reducing circulation. Overseas community conclusion: CORE’s token model is inflation-driven; the larger the BTCFi business, the greater the selling pressure on CORE. Supply and demand are naturally inverse, putting long-term price support under pressure. 2. Large Unlocks + Continuous Release of Early Holdings CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with a long unlocking period and token rewards released continuously over 81 years. Overseas on-chain data enthusiasts have been monitoring long-term: validator rewards, early investors, and team shares are continuously unlocking and flowing out; Moreover, in September, a validator exploit allowed some to claim excess CORE rewards. Although the project team urgently fixed it, overseas traders remain seriously concerned: the token issuance rules have vulnerabilities, posing risks of unexpected over-issuance and damaging trust. 3. Liquidity Continues to Shrink, Multiple Exchanges Delisting Overseas community statistics: many small and medium exchanges have already delisted CORE spot trading; Order book depth is thinning, slippage is huge, and trading volume in the last two days has shrunk directly to less than $1 million. Overseas traders’ view: liquidity is the foundation of the coin price, and buy-side support is increasinglyNot chasing shorts near 80,000 is San Ma Ge's most firm judgment in this situation; but being bullish does not mean all long positions should be stubbornly held. @SanMaGeBenGe regards the BTC 80,000 level as important support, while repeatedly advising those with overly heavy positions and liquidation levels too close to use the rebound to exit most of their positions first. Confidence in direction cannot replace the account's ability to withstand drawdowns.
First, look at $BTC. He believes that even if the 80,000 level is briefly broken, it may only be a stop-loss sweep followed by a recovery, so one should not chase shorts just because the round number is breached. This is his starting point for going long that night, not a guarantee that 80,000 will never be broken. During intraday price tests around this area, he still treated it as a support zone and gave a long attempt near 80,188; another lower pending order did not execute precisely, so it cannot be claimed as filled just because it was touched.
The change in this situation lies in how to handle the rebound once it appears. Earlier, he mentioned exiting near 81,200 first, then observing turnover; later, as the rebound developed, he treated the 82,000 to 82,588 range as a zone for partial profit-taking and pressure observation, and set the higher 84,000 level as a subsequent focus. Although the bullish direction remains the same, the intraday execution is not a static set of orders from start to finish.
Especially for those who already have long positions and continue to add at low levels, he repeatedly requested reducing by half first. For accounts still heavily positioned near cost, the reduction requirement was further raised to over 70%. The reason is straightforward: during the same volatility, light positions can wait for structure, but heavy positions may hit liquidation before the judgment is realized.$BTC just lost $966M in leveraged longs but the bigger signal is who isn’t selling September PPI jumped 1.3% vs 0.6% expected, while CPI hit 3.7% YoY raising Fed rate-hike concerns BTC dipped to $80.2K as spot ETFs saw $261M in outflows and risk-off sentiment intensified Meanwhile whales are buying while retail sells, and long-term holder realized losses have fallen 85% My view: Not capitulation yet, but risk remains high Below $80K $78K, then $75K Holding $80K could help absorb the inflation 美联储的剧本可能要被撕了。
6月那场会议，18位委员交了利率预期，主席自己没交。他的说法是，同事们的预测是铅笔写的，带大橡皮。
通讯改革工作组已经在审查前瞻指引、点阵图和纪要到底该不该留。不是立刻废，是先看值不值。
没有官方指引，市场只能盯CPI、非农、美债和美元，数据说话，没人提前透题。$BTC $ETH 的定价会更碎更急。兄弟姐妹们好
兄弟们！资金风向出现拐点了！
最新数据：周二比特币现货ETF净流入1.756亿美元，冲上10月2日以来单日最高；以太坊现货ETF也净流入2480万美元，连续10天净流出暂时画上句号。
前一天还在撤，今天就有资金回补，切换速度很快。更值得留意的是，CPI数据偏热、降息预期受扰，BTC却没被砸穿，说明下方有承接。
我的判断：短线情绪在修复，但单日回流还不能当成趋势。接下来重点看三点：一是能否连续净流入；二是成交量是否同步放大；三是宏观压力会不会再来。若连续两三天回流，信心会更扎实；若只是脉冲，行情仍可能反复。
先别急，等确认。 $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Recently, I came across a set of BTC historical data that I found quite interesting. Someone noticed that after the past several U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has experienced a phase low for a period of time. 📊 According to historical statistics: 🔹 2014: About 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2018: About 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2022: About 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. From 71 days to 39 days, then to 13 days, the time seems to be getting shorter. Seeing this, many might wonder: Could BTC also bottom out quickly after the 2026 midterm election? 🤔 Honestly, this pattern is indeed interesting, but I think it can't be directly applied. First, just because a similar trend appeared three times in history doesn't mean it will repeat the fourth time. The market environments in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were not the same. The Federal Reserve policies, global liquidity, institutional participation levels, and even BTC's own market size have all changed significantly. More importantly, the way historical lows are selected also affects the statistical results. 📉 Secondly, I pay more attention to the capital changes when BTC declines. Here is an indicator worth observing: Open Interest (OI). If BTC falls and OI significantly decreases, it may indicate some leveraged positions are exiting. But if the price keeps falling and OI increases instead, further judgment is needed to determine if new short capital is entering. Of course, based on OPolygon已完成收购Coinme，把美国美元进出通道接入自己的支付服务。10月14日官方公告称，服务覆盖48州，由37张州级汇款牌照及11州适用豁免组成，不是拿到48张牌照。
最先受益的是支付公司和跨国发薪企业。过去要分别接银行入金、链上转账和本地货币出金，现在可通过一套服务衔接，减少供应商之间的交接。首批客户包括Tazapay、Mesh、Toku和Kira。
以Toku为例，员工收到稳定币后，可在同一发薪流程里存入钱包、兑换本地货币。少切换几家服务商，有机会减少等待和操作成本；实际省多少，还要看收费、到账速度与当地开放范围。
这对Polygon支付业务采用偏正面，但公告未披露新增交易量或POL购买安排。支付业务受监管，也不是POL代币获得监管背书。后续应看真实支付规模，以及有多少使用转化为Polygon链上的费用需求。
来源及配图：Polygon官网10/14收购完成公告，10/16复核。下方POL为Polygon代币现货行情。$POL #Tesla Delivery Exceeds Expectations, Profit Recovery Becomes the Focus Recently, Tesla has once again become the center of market attention. The third-quarter vehicle delivery performance exceeded market expectations, and many are starting to look forward to the upcoming earnings report bringing surprises. But honestly, I feel that good delivery numbers don’t necessarily mean the earnings report will be impressive. 🤔 Why do I say that? Because the number of cars sold and the actual money earned are two completely different things. 📊 Let’s start with the automotive business. Tesla can stimulate sales through price cuts and promotions, but if the profit per vehicle decreases, even if deliveries exceed expectations, overall profits may not grow accordingly. What I’m most focused on this time is whether the automotive business gross margin can improve. After all, what the market wants to see now is not just how many cars Tesla can sell, but how much money it can make. 💰 Next, let’s look at the energy business. Compared to electric vehicles, the energy storage business is also a growth area worth watching for Tesla. If energy storage revenue and profits continue to improve, it could provide new growth support for the company. But how much it will contribute specifically still needs to wait for the official earnings report. 🤖 Finally, there’s Robotaxi and autonomous driving. This area indeed has room for imagination and is an important reason the market continues to focus on Tesla. However, one issue cannot be ignored: no matter how much potential future business has, it still needs to prove its value through actual commercialization progress. There may still be a long way to go between technological advancement, commercial scale, and actually generating profits. 💡 My view: This Tesla earnings report, exceeding delivery expectations is just the first step. The real market decision will be#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 🌑 深夜盘点：双通胀数据砸下来，大饼居然红了，OKB从124砸到117，ZEC在1144装死
$BTC 82169，涨0.64个点 📈
CPI和PPI双超预期，按剧本该崩，大饼反而从81888弹回82169翻红。昨天全网清算3亿多，多头被洗了一遍，抛压反而轻了。ETF上周净流出三个半月最多，但81000下面有真实买盘接。利空出尽？还是下跌中继？
$OKB 117.88，跌4.15个点 🔴
昨天CPI夜它逆势涨3个点到124，今天全吐回去还倒跌4个点。昨天说避风港，今天避风港也没保住。120整数位破了，平台币跟大盘绑太紧。
$ZEC 1144.68，涨0.09个点 🔒
隐私币在双通胀数据下几乎没动，1144横着。前几天从1223跌到1159，现在在底部磨。
$BICO 0.01703，涨1.31个点 📈
账户抽象赛道小反弹，从0.0169弹到0.017。没有独立消息，就是跟着大饼弹。
$RE 0.41571，跌0.54个点 😴
小RWA继续没人管，0.415横盘。
本文仅为行情分析，不构成投资建议。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus Recently, I saw an investor share their Netflix holdings, and honestly, it was quite interesting. As the Q3 earnings report on October 20 approaches, the market is discussing whether Netflix can once again deliver an earnings beat. But some investors have already started to worry. Revenue growth is one thing; whether the market is willing to continue assigning a high valuation is another. 🤔 📊 Let's first look at the data the market is focusing on. According to previously disclosed guidance, Netflix expects for Q3: 🔹 Revenue of about $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. 🔹 Operating margin expected to reach 33.2%. 🔹 Operating margin was 28.2% in the same period last year. At first glance, this expectation isn't bad. But the problem is, the market's demands for Netflix may no longer be just about maintaining growth. Everyone wants to know: can the advertising business truly take over and become the new growth engine? 💰 Why is the advertising business so important? Netflix's traditional subscription business is relatively mature, and relying on new paying users to achieve rapid growth may become increasingly difficult. The ad-supported tier offers another business model. Users pay a relatively lower subscription fee, and the platform generates revenue through advertising. If this model can continue to scale, Netflix has the opportunity to increase the total revenue per user. But if ad revenue growth falls short of expectations, the market may reassess the company's future growth potential. 📉 To continue最怕的剧本还是翻页了：核心CPI不降温😬
总体3.7%没太意外，油价高早就打过预防针。可核心同比2.6%，比预期2.5%还热，前值2.4%。剔掉油和食品后仍往上拱，说明成本压力已从能源扩散到服务与商品。机票、二手车、医疗、服装都在冒头。✈️👕
机票尤其关键：航油涨了几个月，终于传导到票价，通胀开始“渗透”。市场立刻重定价：月底加息押注由22%升至44%。10年期美债收益率再破5.3%，美元偏强，金银、美股期货走弱。比特币冲8.38w后掉到8.1w，8.4w依旧难破。📉
后面盯两关：10月28日美联储决议、11月公布的10月CPI。若核心继续热，钱会更紧，风险偏好更难抬头。短线大饼上方8.4w是盖子，下方8.05w是地板。🧱美联储在悄悄改规则。
沃什主张弱化甚至放弃点阵图，声明不再暗示利率路径。9月已有16位委员预期年内至少再加息一次，内部意见也不再齐整。
一旦成行，市场就得自己猜，波动从议息日分散到每个CPI、非农——美债MOVE指数已升到80.6，比6月低点高两成多。
影响最大的还是风险资产的定价逻辑，$BTC 和 $ETH 对利率最敏感，波动只会被放大。这是让市场更理性，还是更刺激？#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Sigh, placing a $CRCL order at 75 is basically impossible to fill
This price is too extreme
Tonight it quickly jumped to 83
Some are still waiting for it to return to 60
That's impossible
When others ask me, I always say
A price starting with seven is already very good
78, 77, 76 are all fine
I placed mine at 75
But it didn't get filled…….