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#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
US tech AI stocks crashed, Coca-Cola hit a new high, is AI trading really over?
Last night watching the market, the Nasdaq once surged 1.4%, but closed down 1.07% at 25164
The most eye-catching was Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, which touched a record high of $557.59 intraday. Coca-Cola has risen over 36% this year, outperforming a bunch of tech giants. The money hasn't left the market; it has moved out of AI hardware and into the word "certainty."
So is AI trading over? My answer: the narrative isn't dead, but the old pricing logic has been liquidated. Morgan Stanley data shows hedge fund AI exposure has dropped to "underweight" for the first time since early 2023.
The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the market is asking the same question: when will we see profits from nearly a trillion dollars in annual capital expenditure? This doesn't mean the AI story is over; it means the phase of "only looking at vision without looking at the books" has ended.
When will it come back? Watch two things.
First, Nvidia's earnings report on November 17, Wolfe directly said this is the key point for AI trading to "regain favor."
Second, after the nonfarm payrolls and midterm elections settle, will capital dare to take on risk again? Ackman is already saying "Wall Street has overestimated costs and underestimated the profit curve," and Deutsche Bank has upgraded tech stocks from "neutral" to "overweight," but these are all contrarian voices.
Old economy stocks hitting new highs is not a permanent style shift; it's capital finding a place to sleep before the AI books are settled.The "who wins" of this election has already been mostly priced in by the market — Kalshi traders give the Democrats 94% for the House and 74% for the Senate; anyway, hold onto your spot positions and prepare sufficient cash. The two key crypto assets, $BTC and $ETH, must be allocated. FiveThirtyEight-type models give 90% / 83%. So "Democrats win" itself won't trigger a big market move; the real trading opportunities lie in the "unexpected" and "by how much". Four practical impact lines for the "ordinary people": 1. Exchange rate (most direct) The strength of the dollar depends on "fiscal deficit + Fed independence," not who wins. If tomorrow morning there is an "unexpected Republican hold of the Senate" → the dollar may jump 1–2%, so currency exchange/study abroad payments can wait for this spike to split purchases. If Democrats sweep → the dollar weakens, lowering costs for outbound travel/overseas shopping. 2. Overseas assets (QDII/US stocks/HK stocks) Don't make a single heavy bet based on election results; use dollar-cost averaging. Tech stocks are most sensitive to "Democratic tax hikes," while new energy/healthcare are most friendly to Democrats. 3. A-shares/export chain The real impact is not who wins, but whether tariffs escalate and whether tech controls on China increase. Watch sectors with high export shares like home appliances, machinery, textiles, and consumer electronics for reactions after the US market opens on 11-4. 4. Crypto assets Senate control directly determines market structure bills (like CLARITY) and stablecoin yield provisions.$LIT Negative news: Price rose to $3.24, but starting December 27, three-quarters of the tokens that were previously locked will begin to unlock
The biggest risk lies in the supply; currently about three-quarters of LIT tokens are still not circulating, and unlocking starts on December 27, with insiders' first batch of about 13.5 million tokens at the end of January
This amount is roughly 16 times the average monthly buyback and burn rate in Q3. Lighter has repurchased about $33.2 million this year, so it will be difficult to absorb this volume
Some are already offloading; on November 2, an address starting with 0x14A unstaked and transferred 3.9 million LIT, worth about $12.21 million, to exchanges like OKEx
Today, LIT rose 4.93% to 3.239, with a trading volume of $12.66 million. No new news was seen on the day; the driving force remains the two CFTC license applications to be submitted in November
The applications have not yet been submitted, and even after submission, the review will take about 180 days. It is unclear whether US users will be able to use LIT. The rebound is supported by expectations, with resistance near 3.5 above.SNDK at $1130, are you still waiting to break even?
Revenue surged 378% in the earnings report, yet the stock price was cut in half from 2300 to 1130—Is SNDK truly oversold, or is it the first domino signaling the peak of the NAND cycle?
Let's look at the surface: explosive earnings, but the stock price feels like it took a laxative.
October 29 earnings: revenue $11 billion, up 378% year-over-year; EPS $49.51; gross margin 85.1%; data center business $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 44%; also repurchased $5 billion in shares. Shouldn't this push the price to 1500?
What happened? The stock opened high, then was hammered down. On November 2, it dropped 6.6%, spot closed at 1075, perpetual futures now hovering around 1130. From the June high above 2300, it’s been halved twice, dropping 30-35% in the past month. With such strong earnings, why is it crashing?
First: Earnings reflect the past, stock price reflects the future.
Revenue of $11 billion, EPS $49.51, gross margin 85%—these numbers are indeed explosive. But what is the market watching? Whether NAND prices can continue to rise next quarter.
Guidance is $12.2-12.6 billion revenue, EPS $55-57, which isn’t bad. But “good news priced in + selling the news” is the classic killer scene for cyclical stocks. The market worries about slowing NAND price growth, supply catching up, and the return of cyclical characteristics.
Second: The 8-for-1 stock split is not a lifesaver, it’s a liquidity trap.
The company announced an 8-for-1 stock split effective around November 19/20, claiming to “improve accessibility.”
A split doesn’t change any fundamentals; it just turns one $100 share into eight $12.50 shares. It doesn’t make the company more valuable, only makes more retail investors think it’s “cheaper” and rush in to catch the falling knife.
A stock split is not good news; it’s a placebo for retail investors. Truly great companies don’t need to prove they’re cheap by splitting shares.
Third: Technicals show bearish alignment, oversold rebounds are weak as if unfed.
Big picture: After the 2025 split, the stock rose until peaking in June 2026, then entered a mid-term downtrend. It dropped 30-35% in the past month, breaking quickly below 1400+, falling below previous consolidation zones.
MA7/25/99 are in bearish alignment; daily RSI is near 30 at a low level. Rebounds have low volume, declines have high volume—typical weakness.
Support: 1060-1100 (recent lows + psychological level), break below targets 1000.
Resistance: 1180-1200 (short-term rebound target), then 1250-1300 (strong resistance).
Only a volume-backed hold above 1150-1160 with a pullback that doesn’t break it signals a bottom; breaking 1100 with volume means bears continue.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide:
On the bull side:
- AI data center storage demand narrative remains strong, long-term contracts with NBM provide visibility
- Valuation compressed to 5-9x forward earnings, $5 billion buyback + zero debt
- Oversold rebound demand, 1060-1100 support zone
- Consensus target price still high, analysts haven’t fully capitulated
On the bear side:
- NAND price growth slowing, supply catching up, cyclical concerns
- Selling the news after earnings, 30-35% drop in the past month
- Moving averages in bearish alignment, rebound volume shrinking
- Liquidity disturbance around 8-for-1 split, perpetual futures spike risk
- Semiconductor sector volatility, macro interest rate and tech sentiment pressure
Key levels:
Resistance above: 1180-1200 → 1250-1300 → 1400
Support below: 1060-1100 → 1000
Trading strategy:
Short-term (1-3 days):
Mainly wait and see or lightly speculate on rebounds. If volume-backed hold above 1150-1160 with a pullback that doesn’t break it, small position long with targets 1180-1220, stop loss below 1130 or 1100. If it breaks 1100 with volume, bears continue, target 1050-1000, stop loss above. When funding rates are neutral, avoid high leverage overnight; spikes punish the stubborn.
Mid-term (1-4 weeks):
Wait for clear bottoming. Ideal entry is multiple confirmations of 1060-1100 support zone with volume contraction and stabilization, then build long positions gradually; or break above 1200 with pullback confirmation before following. Do not chase gains or blindly bottom-fish now. Target first near previous high around 1400; if AI narrative strengthens, higher is possible.
SNDK now looks like storage stocks in 2022—
The better the earnings, the worse the stock price falls, because fear of the cycle peak overwhelms everything. But once NAND inventory clears and AI storage demand exceeds expectations again, you’ll realize:
It’s not that SanDisk is bad, it’s that you got scared out by the cycle.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK's sharp drop this round appears on the surface to be profit-taking after the earnings report, but in essence, it is a triple squeeze of "expectation overextension + industry cooling + on-chain liquidity drying up." The most alarming signal is not the drop itself, but that traditional stocks only dipped slightly while synthetic tokens were pushed below previous lows—same selling pressure, two markets, two outcomes. First layer: the earnings report is not bad, but it didn't meet Wall Street's secretly elevated expectations. The positive performance actually served as a cover for capital to exit, a typical "good news already priced in" structure. When the market prices in the most optimistic scenario in advance, any "just decent" numbers are treated as negative news. The second layer comes from the industry chain's cold water. Competitor Kioxia publicly warned that the momentum of flash memory price increases is slowing, a single statement that pressured the entire semiconductor storage sector. This is not just $SNDK's problem, but a turning point signal where the narrative shifts from "price increase cycle" to "cycle peak"—when the leader starts signaling a slowdown, capital often flees faster than the data. The third layer is the easiest to overlook but the most fatal: the market depth of on-chain synthetic tokens is too thin. When the US stock market is closed, the lack of real liquidity on-chain to absorb selling orders of the same scale results in only a shallow dip in the underlying stock but a deep pit in the tokens, with spike phenomena especially severe. This exposes a structural flaw—tokenized stocks lose price discovery function in liquidity vacuums. My judgment is: this is not a complete collapse of the company's fundamentals, but a rush of capital combined with the token's small scale, where even slight volatility triggers a stampede. The real confirmation signal worth tracking is KAn interesting historical pattern is attracting attention. Looking at the previous three US midterm election cycles, Bitcoin's major bottoms occurred progressively closer to election day: 📌 2014: Bottomed approximately 71 days after the election, near $170. 📌 2018: Bottomed approximately 39 days after the election, near $3,200. 📌 2022: Bottomed approximately 13 days after the election, near $15,500. Following those lows, Bitcoin eventually reached major highs of approximately $20K, $64K, and 【Binance Incident 96 Hours: From Criminal Case to National Cybersecurity Issue-2】
The prospect of recovery needs to be viewed calmly: Stablecoins are the "most recoverable" assets in the crypto field, as issuers can freeze, destroy, and reissue them; Bitcoin and Ethereum have no issuers and can only be tracked and intercepted on cooperating platforms, with cycles possibly measured in years. Technical freezing is measured in minutes, legal restitution in months or even years—this is the most profound lesson from this round of offense and defense.
Ripple Effect: From Regulatory Talks to the Presidential Office
The second wave of impact from the Binance incident hit the regulatory level, and the speed exceeded expectations.
On November 3, South Korea completed a two-level response in one day. In the morning, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) urgently convened a meeting with the Financial Supervisory Service, Financial Security Institute, and the five major exchanges, requiring an increase in the proportion of cold wallet assets—the South Korean legal minimum is 80%, but actual levels vary among exchanges: Upbit at 99.17%, Bithumb 94.76%, Coinone 85%, Korbit 82.79%, GOPAX 80.54%. In the afternoon, President Lee Jae-myung called for the establishment of a government-level cybersecurity agency at a cabinet meeting to coordinate the dispersed security functions across agencies, bluntly stating that the existing "inspection + post-response" system has shown limitations. On the same day, the Bank of Korea was revealed to be conducting a crypto risk exposure survey on 18 banks and 13 securities firms. In the US, Trump publicly stated he was monitoring the incident, and calls from Congress to improve crypto legislation have clearly intensified.
The attackers did not stop either. On November 2, Brazil's largest exchange Mercado Bitcoin confirmed a security incident, losing about $38 million to $46 million; the platform bore the loss and suspended deposits and withdrawals—the "issuer freeze alliance" just rehearsed in the Binance incident was fully reused in Brazil within 48 hours: about $11 million was quickly frozen, including 4.5 million USDT frozen by Tether.
A set of summary data footnotes these 96 hours: from 2022 to 2026, 12 crypto theft cases linked to North Korea (or suspected connections) totaled about $9.74 billion—Binance alone accounts for 65%. The previous record holder was Bybit's $1.5 billion in February 2025. The "ATM" of state-level hackers is growing exponentially, and North Korea's official denial on November 2 (Kim Jong-jun called the US accusations "fabrications") elevated the incident from a criminal case to a diplomatic issue.
Market Response
Bitcoin's reaction surprised most. On October 30, the intraday maximum drop was about 3.7%, briefly falling below $79,000; after withdrawals resumed on November 1, it dropped about 4% again—but compared to similar events in the previous cycle with double-digit drops, this reaction was restrained, partly due to structural buying from spot ETFs and the issuer's rapid freezing.
The real pressure was in the stock market: Coinbase led the decline, with crypto concept stocks like Circle and Strategy falling simultaneously—stock investors expressed concerns about "tighter regulation + rising industry trust costs." Another intriguing divergence was that while leading exchanges were bleeding the same week, institutional-grade on-chain infrastructure was attracting capital against the trend—tokenized securities OTC platform Figure Markets' TVL rose 18.4% to $142 million, marking a divergence between the "licensed institutions going on-chain" route and the exchange route.
As for the $5.8 billion net outflow after withdrawals resumed on November 1 (about 3.4% of Binance's $171 billion customer assets)—the speed stabilized within 24 hours, showing pressure release rather than a run. This is the strictest stress test in the history of the world's largest exchange, and the current result is passing; but the real score depends on the deposit return speed in the next week or two.
Three Long-Term Variables Left for the Industry
Custodial trust costs. Every major security incident pushes up the trust premium for centralized custody. Self-custody hardware wallets, multi-party computation custody, and on-chain transparency tools are long-term beneficiaries—funds migrate where trust migrates.
Issuer power boundaries. Tether froze $1.5 billion in 30 minutes, which is both a moat and a controversy: when a private company can freeze on-chain assets at minute-level speed, "the boundaries of freezing rights" will become a lasting issue as important as "decentralization." THORChain's refusal is just the beginning.
State-level hackers become the core threat. The $9.74 billion four-year ledger shows that exchange-level defenses can no longer stop state-level adversaries. Security budgets, international law enforcement cooperation, privacy coin regulation—the main industry policy lines in the coming years will likely grow out of these 96 hours.
What to Watch Next
On Binance's side: final loss figures (when the two calibers converge), full network recovery progress, deposit return speed. On the recovery side: fund movements after mixing, the first cross-jurisdiction restitution case. On the regulatory side: specific legislative actions in the US and South Korea, more security disclosures from exchanges (Mercado Bitcoin's review report is the next observation point). On the market side: when the divergence between crypto stocks and BTC will be repaired.
A final word for those still reading: the fermentation period of such incidents is a high-risk time for phishing and fake "compensation" scams—official compensation does not require your private keys or any transfers. In moments of panic, holding tight to your private keys is more important than watching the market.I still have 40% of my position empty, just waiting for the negative impact of the midterm elections to land. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Once Trump loses influence in the midterm elections, the US may tighten policies on the crypto industry, so institutions have mainly been withdrawing in the past two weeks, afraid to enter the market.
Current prediction market data shows the Democrats have a 95% chance of taking the House and a 72% chance of taking the Senate.
Below is the performance of Bitcoin $BTC after the last three midterm elections:
2014: Lost control of both chambers, bottomed around $171 within 71 days, a drop of -48%;
2018: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $3200 within 39 days, a drop of -50%;
2022: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $15500 within 13 days, a drop of -16%.【Binance Incident 96 Hours: From Criminal Case to National Cybersecurity Issue-1】
On the evening of October 29, 2026, news of a suspected breach of Binance's hot wallet began circulating in the crypto community. 96 hours later, the nature of this incident had changed three times: from an exchange security breach, to a nation-level hacker attribution battle, and then to a cybersecurity agenda involving multiple governments. Breaking down this timeline fully, it is more memorable than any single news story—because industry rules are often rewritten within such 96-hour windows.
Incident and Scale: How the Largest Hack in History Was "Throttled"
Post-event on-chain forensics pieced together the full picture of the attack. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs estimated about $6.36 billion in assets were transferred from Binance wallets to 10 blockchains within approximately 20 minutes; Chainalysis CEO cited $6.4 billion. The attack preparation began at least 36 hours before the incident—the perpetrators funded the wallet via the mixing service Tornado Cash and obtained transaction signatures in advance. This was a textbook-level professional operation.
Regarding the intrusion path, two narratives coexist: Binance points to an engineer’s compromised laptop; blockchain security company Blockaid raised doubts about "private key misuse rather than external theft." This divergence affects the final classification of the incident and liability for compensation, so the investigation conclusion is worth waiting for.
After the incident, the first race was a "freeze race." Binance confirmed in a statement that it had frozen over $3 billion in assets—note, this is the "locked" figure, which differs from the $6.36 billion "outflow" observed on-chain; the difference represents the ongoing part of the attack-defense battle. Stablecoin issuers’ response speed reset industry expectations: Tether disclosed it froze over 1.5 billion USDT within 30 minutes after the incident; Circle froze over $800 million USDC; Ripple assisted in intercepting about $200 million.
What Binance did before resuming withdrawals, the most unlike a "crisis PR" move, was precisely the watershed of the entire event: on October 31, Binance announced it had used company treasury, SAFU user security fund, and futures insurance fund to cover 90% of the stolen assets. First cover the loss, then reopen—the precedent of full compensation for the 7,000 BTC theft in 2019 was replicated this time at a hundredfold scale.
Attack and Defense: Cat-and-Mouse Game and an Undefined Boundary
While the freezing mechanism took effect, hackers escalated their response. On-chain analysts found that attackers rushed to convert large amounts of freezeable stablecoins into Bitcoin and Ethereum before the freeze took effect—since the latter have no issuer and technically cannot be frozen. As of November 3, Elliptic data showed about $3.24 billion of stolen assets still in related addresses, some already entering mixers; another $242 million was laundered through the Tron network and transferred via cross-chain bridges like Relay, THORChain, Chainflip, Symbiosis.
This attack-defense battle also sparked an industry-level debate. Reports say the FBI pressured the censorship-resistant THORChain to assist in freezing related assets; THORChain’s co-founder publicly opposed halting the protocol to comply with law enforcement—the ideal of decentralization clashing with law enforcement realities. The outcome of this debate may set a precedent for the entire DeFi industry’s behavioral boundaries in major criminal incidents. Meanwhile, in a smaller hack (BlueMove, loss about $115,000), the attacker converted stolen funds into 188 Monero coins—privacy coins as the "last exit" old theme resurfaced with this wave of attack season.BTC is still fluctuating around 76,000, ETH has slightly rebounded, but XLM continues to be under pressure! What’s even more disheartening is that while payment and cross-border settlement scenarios are advancing, the price still fails to respond.
The most ironic part of this market is that network stability and actual applications continue, but that doesn’t mean holders will immediately see capital inflows.
Latest news: XLM is continuously advancing payment network and ecosystem collaborations, reinforcing its position as the infrastructure for cross-border settlements. The narrative of long-term user and institutional conversion is strengthening, but short-term market reactions remain cautious.
First, looking at $BTC, the price is about 76,920, with slight fluctuations over 24 hours. After briefly surpassing 77,000 and then losing it, whether it can stabilize above this level again is the focus.
Next, $ETH is around 2,262, showing relatively steady performance. There is still resistance near 2,300, but the follow-through strength is acceptable.
Finally, $XLM is about 0.163, showing weaker performance. Among the three coins, it faces the greatest pressure. If it continues to lose the 0.155 level, short-term pressure may increase.
Summary: For BTC, watch if it can reclaim 77,000; for ETH, watch the follow-through strength; for XLM, watch if capital truly flows back after ecosystem implementation. No matter how much progress is made, it depends on whether the capital buys in!
Do you think XLM will break below 0.155 first, or BTC will stabilize above 77,500 first?
For personal record only, not investment advice. #加密行业协同守护资产安全 The latest liquidation chart appears to show a familiar market pattern: an initial bullish trap followed by a short-term rebound that puts pressure on leveraged traders. Here's what makes this setup interesting: 📊 First Phase: The initial price movement attracts bullish traders and creates crowded long positions. 📉 Second Phase: A reversal catches late buyers off guard, triggering long liquidations. 🐻 Third Phase: The market rebounds, potentially putting short sellers under pressure as well. BTC is only 2.2% away from the Strategy cost line: I won't bottom-fish before election night
On the evening of 11/3, BTC was about 77,088, ETH about 2,266, SOL about 92.5, down approximately 5.2%, 4.0%, and 9.7% respectively since 10/28.
The funding side is more critical: US spot BTC ETF saw net outflows of about 1.04 billion USD over two trading days on 10/30 and 11/2, and ETH ETF experienced six consecutive days of net outflows. Strategy holds 849,327 BTC with an average cost of 75,451 USD; the current price is only about 2.2% higher. The fear and greed index dropped from 37 to 26.
The real support is not just a line but when the ETF stops bleeding. Before the election, I focus on funding without guessing direction: watching whether BTC ETF can return to two consecutive days of net inflows and whether the price can hold above 75,451. Rules are set in advance so on election night, I don't have to rely on emotional judgment.
OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform where the manager makes the rules for increasing or decreasing positions into publicly traceable on-chain strategies. As of 10/31, TVL is 7,528,536 USDC with 4,620 holding addresses.
#BTC $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$APR Small dual-side costs are close, large purchases are more expensive. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.16%/0.15%, for 100,000 it is 2.17%/0.65%. The asymmetry is an execution issue, not a price movement signal.
$AKE Sell costs for two levels rise simultaneously. Simulated sell slippage: 10,000 increases from 0.19% to 0.25%, 100,000 from 0.78% to 1.11%. The order book is thinning, which takes precedence over price perspective.
$MVLL After enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increases significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.18%/0.16%, for 100,000 it is 0.59%/0.61%. A sign of thin depth is simultaneous increase on both sides. $BTC fell from 126,200 to 77,450, a drop of 38.6%. But to get back to the high, it needs to rise 62.9%.
The asymmetry between loss and recovery is a math problem that beginners often underestimate:
· Down 10%, need to rise 11.1%
· Down 30%, need to rise 42.9%
· Down 50%, need to rise 100%
· In the 2022 bear market, down 77.6%, need to rise 346%, BTC took 846 days to return to the previous high
Look at another set of numbers: In the 2132 days since 2021, BTC's closing price was more than 20% below the then all-time high for 1421 days, accounting for 67%. Being stuck in losses is the norm, not the exception.
So the only real rule to follow is: don't let a single loss exceed 30%. Beyond this line, the required gain to break even will be more than 40% higher than your loss, and it gets steeper the further down you go.
The deeper the loss, the harder it is to recover. This is not a mindset issue, it's math.
Not investment advice. Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily chart (since 2018/1). #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 The most interesting number in the U.S. midterm calendar may not be a seat count. It is the shrinking gap between election day and Bitcoin’s cycle low. Across the past three midterms, $BTC bottomed roughly 71 days after the 2014 vote near $170, about 39 days after 2018 at $3,200, and just 13 days after 2022 around $15,500. The intervals compress: 71, then 39, then 13. That pattern invites a tidy narrative—panic peaks, capitulation arrives sooner, and the next cycle begins. The subsequent moves w#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The boss has something to say
Circle will release its Q3 earnings report before the US market opens on November 4. As the circulation of USDC expands, the market is focusing on reserve income, distribution costs, and profitability.
I believe this earnings report will likely face pressure. The comments section is very insightful: profits are tied to reserve interest rates, USDC grew by 25% but reserve income only increased by 5%. This indicates that although the scale has grown, profits have not kept pace with the growth. On one hand, distribution costs are too high; on the other, reserve income is constrained by the interest rate environment. Circle is currently operating on thin margins but high volume.
On the market, CRCL rose 1.05% today, xCRCL rose 1.04%, but in related forecasts, 58% of people bet it will miss expectations. Capital is actually very cautious.
For crypto, Circle is a bellwether in the stablecoin sector. If the earnings report confirms scale growth but no improvement in profitability, it means this business model heavily depends on high interest rates, which challenges the valuation logic of the sector.
Bitcoin is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000. If it can't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop-loss orders. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The NEAR inflation reduction proposal passed, but the token fell 7%. The positive news was realized, and the market took the lead to exit.
The announcement shows that 11.8 million NEAR will be released less over the next two years, equivalent to about 45 million USD at the current price. Reports indicate that after the news was released, NEAR dropped about 7%.
In the long term, reducing inflation means less dilution and lighter supply-side pressure; in the short term, what is cut is exactly the staking rewards and inflation expectations, so the yield from holding tokens decreases, and some funds take profits early or switch to high-yield assets. This is judged as a divergence between bulls and bears, with a short-term bearish bias for NEAR.
Scenario one: On-chain staking rate drops significantly due to reduced rewards, ecosystem incentives shrink accordingly, and deflation does not lead to price increases. Scenario two: Staking data and trading volume stabilize, and support gradually appears.
Do you focus more on changes in staking rate, or wait for trading volume to stabilize?
Source: CointelegraphLet's look at three possible political outcomes and how they could influence the financial markets and crypto. 1️⃣ Democrats Gain Full Control Potential policy implications include tighter fiscal spending and continued scrutiny of major technology companies and crypto regulation. Lower Treasury yields could support liquidity expectations, potentially benefiting Bitcoin. However, regulatory uncertainty and pressure on technology stocks could create short-term volatility across crypto markets. Gol先说一个可能有点反常识的判断，以后别老盯着危机什么时候爆发，泡沫什么时候破裂了，这两个事情你大概率等不到了。 不是因为它不会破，而是因为现在的美国不会主动的去刺破泡沫，也不会轻易的让它破。为什么？因为这次泡沫里怀着一个新的美国，它正在吸收全球的养分，持续给美元充值，一旦启动中途就不能停。所以你看到的很多波动不只是市场情绪，而是有人在护盘。而护盘的方法很奇特，不是把泡沫吹得更大，而是制造波动。 说白了，美国正在用物理学的方式在解决金融问题。如果我们今天还只是单纯的分析估值盈利加不加息，就等于在别人制造的波动里在观察波动，很难看清楚它的真实动机，如果判断反了，就很可能会亏的。 今天的内容很实用，但也有点长，今天说到两个应对思路，更重要的是要感受一下对面的金融玩法。它不是一个单一学科，它是个综合学科，咱们也做到执笔啊。关于A呢，大家经常会开个玩笑说这次不一样，这次的确不一样。 区别不在于产业类型，不在于泡沫怎么形成，而在于今天的美国不一样了，以前也没有这样的总统，川子只是以问题的映射，他是来解决问题的，就说明问题很严重。以前泡沫破了，不管引爆什么危机都能降息救市，再顺手收割全球资产回血。 现Liquidity: An Overlooked “Expensive Divergence”
ETFs are withdrawing, whales are buying, but the directions don’t align
After the Binance incident, the US spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $643.2 million, marking the largest daily outflow since October. BlackRock’s IBIT alone had an outflow of $233 million, with no products recording net inflows that day. During the week of October 26–30, BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $202 million.
However, CryptoQuant data shows that on-chain whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025, with a 30-day accumulation rate being the fastest since February this year. Yet, whales are not unified internally: BTC whale positions on Hyperliquid have turned net short (the first time since March this year), and some whales sold 1,312 BTC to switch into ETH.
“Spot accumulation, contract shorts, switching to ETH” — this is not a unanimously bullish stance but a defensive, hedged, and fragmented structure.
Derivatives: Leverage reset is complete, but the remaining longs are the “most expensive”
This is the most subtle and easily overlooked signal currently. The market-wide open interest has dropped to a 12-month low, confirming that leverage liquidation has indeed completed on a volume level. However, the 7-day average funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts stands at the 100th percentile over 90 days, meaning the remaining longs are paying the highest holding costs in the past three months.
This implies: deleveraging has resolved “who is holding hard,” but not “who is buying.” If the price fails to break above 78,219, these “most expensive” longs will continue to burn funding fees and may eventually be forced to liquidate, fueling the next downward move.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently still in a downtrend, with the 72,000-74,000 range serving as an important support reference. This week, the market will see two consecutive U.S. employment reports: a minor non-farm payroll report on Wednesday, followed by the main report on Friday. The intensive labor data released within 48 hours will give macro traders two opportunities to reprice December interest rate expectations. Both $BTC and $ETH are at the center of volatility. Ethereum ($ETH) faces resistance in the 2,300-2,350 range. Many traders currently think that the rapid rally driven by the data is a good selling opportunity. $BTC can be sold at the extreme high of 80,500, with 79,000 being a more conservative exit point. The characteristic of this kind of market is that data-driven oscillations tend to overshoot, and the original trend is likely to resume afterward. Selling at resistance during a sharp rise is more appropriate than chasing the dip. Some traders consider holding short positions over the weekend, a choice that depends more on their own leverage and risk tolerance. The two employment reports released consecutively also carry risks. Weak data on Wednesday may temporarily boost risk assets and squeeze shorts, but Friday's report could completely reverse interest rate expectations. This environment suits a peak selling strategy, but if Friday's data brings a substantial shift in policy expectations, this strategy will fail. At this stage, Bitcoin and Ethereum ($ETH) are primarily driven by macro duration logic, and only secondarily by crypto assets. Before the employment data is released, the trend strategy framework remains unchanged, and position control will be paramount. Market eyes "SUI and APT: Both Use Move, Which Ledger Looks Better?"
This time, let's talk about two cards we haven't discussed much. Both are Move public chains, but I don't want to just hear about which is faster; what really matters is what users have retained.
On the SUI side, on October 29, the official announcement declared a partnership with Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin, involving SUI, stablecoins, and subsequent financial products. Note, the access channel does not mean trading volume has exploded, nor does it mean SUI will continuously rise with every stablecoin transfer. Sui's official documentation confirms a total supply cap of 10 billion SUI, with token uses including transaction fees, staking, and storage funds. I will watch for real user activity in Brazil, stablecoin transfers, and new circulating supply. The market wants sustained usage, not just impressive coverage numbers.
APT also has its own changes. On October 12, Aptos officially announced that the encrypted transaction pool went live on the mainnet, which is an optional anti-front-running protection, not all transactions are encrypted by default. Official governance records also show that related proposals were executed in early October. This direction is quite practical, but technical upgrades do not automatically mean users will migrate. I am more focused on actual adoption rates, on-chain transaction fees and token burns, and whether applications bring stable retention.
Both chains can tell a performance story and both face supply pressure. My judgment is: whoever can turn new features into repeated use is the one qualified to talk about valuation premiums. Are you more optimistic about SUI's channel expansion or APT's transaction experience?
#SUI #APT Not investment advice$ETH Market Update on November 3
Ethereum surged to 2317 yesterday. Originally, it was expected to test the 2350 resistance level, but unfortunately, the rebound lacked momentum and fell back directly. The current price has returned to 2243, showing a much weaker trend than anticipated.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the highs continue to decline, failing to form a strong bullish structure. Short-term bears have the upper hand.
Simply put, the buying power is still insufficient to absorb the trapped positions above.
In the broader market, BTC has already fallen below 77000, with long positions liquidated exceeding 100 million USD.
On the ETH side, Binance perpetual contracts show slightly more buying than selling, and Coinbase spot has some small support, but this buying volume does not indicate large-scale capital inflow.
Tonight's US midterm elections are an important variable. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi market forecasts estimate the Democratic Party's probability of controlling both chambers at 78% and 74%, respectively. These are just market expectations; the final result remains uncertain.
Key support to watch is 2220. If it holds, light long positions can be tried.
Overall, maintain a cautious approach and be alert for a possible second dip caused by a market spike.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ @OKX星球 Why does CORE keep falling? In-depth review: Two vulnerabilities shatter the BTCFi narrative, the chain is alive but the coin is dead
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, about 29% in 7 days, and has retraced over 99% from its all-time high. It is not simply dragged down by the overall market; rather, the BTCFi narrative is being repeatedly broken by two security incidents.
The first: In September, a validator over-issuance bug caused abnormal protocol reward distribution, with a few validators receiving CORE rewards exceeding the set amount. The project team chose a "forward upgrade" hard fork without rolling back the ledger. Coinbase, Bithumb, Bitget, Coinone, and LBank simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals. The problem is that key information such as the scale of over-issuance, whether tokens entered the secondary market, and malicious node sell pressure was not fully transparent, creating a trust gap.
The second: At the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, the Core network performed another hard fork, recovering about 68.15 million tokens, approximately 70.2% of the affected amount. However, the recovered tokens have not yet been distributed to affected users, exchange-frozen funds have not been returned, and the compensation process remains unclear.
These two incidents combined directly undermine the core premise of BTCFi: whether Bitcoin assets can safely and reliably enter on-chain finance. Even more cruelly, despite the gradual launch of ecosystem modules, protocol revenue still struggles to offset long-term unlocking sell pressure. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with a circulation rate of about 48% Renminbi deflation is really severe
Everywhere there is a fiscal deficit, money is needed
Pensions lack funds
Technological innovation lacks funds
Aid for unemployed migrants lacks funds
Civil servants face salary cuts and arrears, lacking funds
With such a shortage of money
How exactly to solve it?
Actually, Americans figured it out long ago
"Even if you fly a helicopter and scatter money, don't let deflation happen"
The government should be the lender of last resort in a crisis
In times of crisis, it should increase its own debt
By increasing its debt, it creates more liquid currency and wealth
Government debt is the income and deposits of enterprises and people
At this time, restricting local debt
Cutting civil servants' salaries and delaying payments
Reducing and laying off public institution staff
Raising taxes on enterprises and ordinary people
Is like draining the pond to catch fish
What should be done is exactly the opposite
Restore civil servants' salaries
Pay all arrears in full
Temporarily halt layoffs in public institutions
Reduce taxes on enterprises and people
Lower interest rates close to zero
Issue special government bonds exceeding one trillion yuan
To fill these holes
Renminbi appreciates externally
But internally it should depreciate 3-5% annually
Renminbi is now appreciating externally
Deflating internally
Everything points to one thing
Too little Renminbi is being printed
The current situation is
No one can earn Renminbi
No one holds Renminbi
We need to open the floodgates and release liquidity
Money is expensive because of a shortage
Cash flow in real industries is drying up
We should immediately increase money printing
Fly the helicopter 🚁 and scatter money
Use a vast ocean of Renminbi to nourish real industries
The only way to relieve worries is to print money#蘋果Q4營收超預期，下季度毛利率指引承壓 SanDisk $SNDK is back in my hands again! This time I reopened a long position at $1094, currently still at an unrealized loss, preparing to bet on a rebound after the US stock market opens tonight.
From the recent candlestick structure, SanDisk has entered a relatively weak zone after continuous declines. Around $1067 is the recent low, and $1075 was the previous trading day's closing price.
Although there is a need for a short-term oversold rebound, whether the 15-minute chart can form consecutive higher highs and higher lows is the key to judging if the rebound can sustain.
$1094 is my entry cost; after stabilizing above this, I’m first looking at $1120; if it can break through $1150 with volume, the rebound space is expected to open further; below $1067 is an important risk warning level, and if it breaks, I will most likely be liquidated again.
Honestly, I’m a bit stubborn with this trade, having been liquidated by SanDisk three times already. This time I hope it gives me a decent rebound!
#闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？
According to reports, the Iranian president stated that the Supreme Leader has allowed negotiations on previously non-negotiable issues. Brent crude fell below $105/barrel, closing at $104.99/barrel.
Both the US and Iran are signaling willingness to talk; Trump said "no rush to fight," WTI dropped directly to 96.46, down 7.36%, Brent at 104.77, down 7.63%, marking the largest single-day drop in three months. The market looks like a trend reversal, but after reviewing the data, something feels off.
This round of decline is due to geopolitical premium, not supply and demand.
Hormuz flow is still only 49% of pre-war levels, global inventories are 1 billion barrels less than before the war, and the US SPR has fallen to its lowest since 1982. With such a thin supply buffer, shorting at this point is betting on "a US-Iran handshake within three days and the full reopening of the strait"—the probability exists, but the odds are not in your favor.
Institutions have a consistent stance: lightly short on rebounds, not chasing shorts.Over 30,000 transactions in a single day, yet reported DEX trading volume across the network was just $148. The chain is busy, but where is the actual money? This raises some serious concerns: 📊 High transaction activity, but almost no meaningful trading volume. 🤖 Possible automated activity, though transaction counts alone cannot prove bots are responsible. 💧 Extremely thin liquidity and weak order-book depth. ⚠️ Poor liquidity means even relatively small orders can cause significant slippagI've always had a question: before every major election, people online say the market will drop, to seek safety, to clear positions, etc. But this time, Bitcoin stands at 76,990, which is 5.2% above the 200-day moving average, and it hasn't dropped at all.
Looking back, before the midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, it did indeed drop each time—three times in a row, no wonder everyone treats it as a pattern. This time, it didn't follow the script.
So those theories about inevitable drops might not be wrong logically; it's just that the market is unwilling to cooperate. I used to short and clear positions too, but now I see that patterns only apply to the past.
Don't be too optimistic in the short term either. DWF says the first few months after the election will most likely still be volatile, slightly bearish. The rise of $BTC is measured on a 12-month scale.Bitcoin is currently standing at $76,990, which is 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of $73,169. The number alone might not mean much, but placed in historical context, it tells a different story.
In the U.S. midterm election years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price trend before the elections was downward. This has almost become a seasonal pattern: before elections, funds seek safety, and high-volatility assets are sold off first. This year, however, that pattern did not hold; the price is instead staying above the moving average.
The 200-day moving average deserves a bit more explanation. It roughly equals the average cost of all buy orders over the past year. When the price is above it, it means that the people who entered the market in the past year are overall in profit. Those with profits and those with losses react very differently to the same negative news: the former hold on, while the latter sell at the slightest sign of trouble. Standing above this line indicates a change in the selling pressure structure.
But Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, also rightly reminds us: in the first few months after the midterm elections, Bitcoin usually experiences volatility or a slight bearish bias; the real upward movement only becomes visible after about 12 months.
This statement clearly points out a common mistake many make. Hearing "upward movement after 12 months," the first reaction is to buy now, but those intervening months are precisely the most challenging.
So, the current $BTC is positioned with a bullish direction but a slow pace. If you really want to act, position size and patience must be paired; even if the direction is right, too heavy a position will get washed out.$BTC $ETH $SOL Slid down to 76500, is the 75600 support solid?
Sliding all the way down, my mindset watching the market has shifted from "waiting for a rebound" to "waiting for an explanation" — if it falls, it can't fall further; if it rises, it can't rise, just grinding around 77000. Current BTC price is about 76993, down about 1.1% in 24 hours, daily low 76386; ETH 2264 down about 0.9%, SOL 92.40 down about 1.6%.
My inclination is: this is not a one-day panic, but a continuation of sliding from above 87000 down to around 76500; on Monday, spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $399 million, the second consecutive day of outflow, big money hasn't returned yet, so I treat any rebound as a pullback first, not a reversal.
On the downside, we have to acknowledge: 75600 is just below, not far away, but these days it has been probed without reaching it; among Monday's outflows, BlackRock IBIT accounted for $405 million, it may not run out every day; if it stands back above 78000, the whole script changes.
So tonight, a straightforward question: do you think if the close breaks below 76600, we should first see if the 75600 support is solid, or do you think only standing back above 78000 counts as a bottom, and before that, no moves?
For record only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The bottom was hit after three midterm elections, but this time it might not be the case
The US midterm elections are coming again, and the old pattern of $BTC has been brought up.
The time to bottom is getting shorter each time: 71 days, 39 days, 13 days.
How this number is calculated: from election day to the lowest point of that year.
Three samples, all three hit the low range before the halving.
A common misinterpretation: the time to bottom is shortening, not that the pattern is strengthening.
In the three cycles, the market reaction is getting faster each time.
So fast that in the end, some might buy before the drop is even finished.
Three samples can’t determine the fourth.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC Tonight, Bitcoin's major concept is unlikely to move steadily; instead, it will experience event-driven volatility. The options market has already pushed the implied volatility of contracts expiring on the 4th to about 43 points, indicating that funds are hedging against election night shocks. Currently, Bitcoin has seen a slight rebound but is still under pressure around 78, remaining weak in the short term.
The election itself may not change the long-term direction, as the market has already priced in the expectation that the Democrats might continue to control Congress.
What can truly change the pace is ETF fund flows. If there is a net outflow from ETFs, rebounds are likely to be sold off. If net inflows reappear, the probability of short-term recovery will gradually increase.The U.S. midterm elections are being held today, and in the long run, this is positive for Bitcoin.
History shows that in the 12 months following the last 3 elections, BTC always saw significant gains.
2014: +24.5%
2018: +44.9%
2022: +92.3%
Moreover, this election has a major impact on the Bitcoin sector.
The CLARITY Act has stalled in the Senate, and if the Democrats win, the likelihood of it passing will further decrease.
Not only that, a Democratic victory could even prompt Trump to launch a new round of attacks on Iran, which would cause oil prices to soar and inflation to rise.
But these are only short-term concerns for the market.
Once the uncertainties of the election and war end, liquidity will start flowing into cryptocurrencies, driving our asset portfolio to new highs. ETF Mass Exodus VS Whale Bottom Fishing! BTC Retreats to 77,000, AI Contracts Surge 170%
On November 3, 2026, the crypto market was extremely fragmented: Anthropic Pre-IPO contracts led at $170.80 (+4.36%), while BTC retreated to $77,427.5 (+0.82%) amid macro headwinds and ETF outflows, and ETH struggled to test $2,281.21 (+1.27%).
$ANTHROPICUSDT: Pure narrative gamble. Anchored on unfulfilled IPO expectations, with up to 10x leverage. Revenue of 16.3 billion is attractive, but retail longs outnumber shorts sixfold, making the position very fragile. Synthetic contracts are essentially sentiment-driven "shadow markets."
$BTC: Defensive battle. US midterm elections combined with hacker aftermath caused BTC to briefly dip below 77,000. ETF single-day net outflow hit 643.3 million, a June high; 77,000 acts as a sentiment anchor, representing event-driven defensive selling.
$ETH: Divergence dilemma. ETF inflows continued for six days totaling 571.1 million. However, whale BitMine bought 126,000 coins in a week, accumulating against the trend. Under "ETF runs, whales buy," short-term selling pressure persists, but mid-term odds improve.
Summary: Pricing power is shifting from "consensus assets" to "narrative assets." BTC and ETH face capital gravity, while Anthropic shows high elasticity with high risk. Before panic stabilizes, chasing gains is essentially a capital gamble.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Risk Warning: The following is a conditional strategy based on the public market and capital flow data as of November 3rd and does not constitute investment advice. Today is the U.S. midterm election voting day, followed by the Friday non-farm payroll report, creating a dense event window. Position management takes priority over directional judgment.
As of November 3rd, $BTC is quoted around $76,600–76,800, down approximately 1.4–2.0% in 24 hours, with intraday lows touching $76,335–76,664, marking a new one-month low; ETH is quoted around $2,245–2,257, down approximately 0.8–1.6% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 37 to 26, indicating further cooling sentiment.
The core characteristic of the current market is weakening rebound momentum: BTC previously rebounded near 78,800 but quickly retreated; ETH also quickly dropped after rebounding to 2,316. Neither formed an effective upward trend structure. BTC daily RSI14 is about 34.8, price close to the lower Bollinger Band at 76,726, MACD shows bearish alignment with expanding histogram; ETH RSI14 is about 33.0, also near the lower Bollinger Band at 2,219, MACD histogram converging but direction unchanged. The technical outlook is overall bearish but has entered the oversold boundary.
There is a clear divergence in capital flows: ETFs continue net outflows, with BTC spot ETFs seeing a single-day outflow of $643 million on October 30; however, on-chain whales are accumulating at the fastest pace since February this year. The tug-of-war between ETF selling and whale buying means the bottom is not a unilateral consensus, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on whether spot buying can truly follow through.
BTC Trading Strategy: Primarily short on rebounds, 76,000 is the short-term critical level
Core Logic: BTC faces layered resistance above, from near to far: 77,000 (short-term moving average resistance) → 78,000 (short-term watershed) → 78,600 (structural improvement confirmation level). Support below is 76,326 (30-day low) → 76,000 (psychological level) → 73,205 (200-day SMA). Until 78,600 is reclaimed with volume, any rebound should be treated as a weak repair rather than a trend reversal.
Strategy A: Short on rebound (main strategy)
• Entry: Light short positions when BTC rebounds to 77,000–77,300 and shows stagnation (upper shadow, volume contraction).
• Stop loss: Above 77,800.
• Targets: First target 76,300–76,000, second target 75,000.
Strategy B: Short on breakdown (conditional trigger)
• Trigger: BTC breaks below 76,000 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short positions on pullback to 76,100–76,300 after breakdown.
• Stop loss: Above 76,800.
• Targets: 75,000, extreme target 74,000–74,900.
Long conditions: Only a volume-backed close above 78,600 indicates the need to revise the bearish narrative. The 76,000–77,000 range offers some support, but "oversold can get more oversold," making bottom-fishing before the event window a poor risk-reward.
ETH Trading Strategy: Structurally weaker than BTC, better risk-reward for shorting
Core Logic: ETH’s rebound strength is consistently weaker than BTC’s, having quickly dropped after rebounding to 2,316 and failing to hold 2,300. Resistance above is 2,255–2,265 (short-term moving average resistance) → 2,298–2,341 (overlapping moving average and trendline hard ceiling). Support below is 2,219 (lower Bollinger Band) → 2,174 (30-day low) → 2,159 (200-day SMA). ETH spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, institutional buying is absent, and the rebound lacks spot foundation.
Strategy A: Short on rebound (main strategy)
• Entry: Light short positions when ETH rebounds to 2,255–2,270 and faces resistance.
• Stop loss: Above 2,310.
• Targets: First target 2,230–2,220, second target 2,195.
Strategy B: Short on breakdown (conditional trigger)
• Trigger: ETH breaks below 2,219 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short positions on pullback to 2,220–2,230 after breakdown.
• Stop loss: Above 2,270.
• Targets: 2,174, extreme target 2,159.
Long conditions: ETH only has basic conditions for right-side longs if it closes above 2,330–2,340 with volume and BTC simultaneously strengthens. Whale accumulation at lows can be a signal but is insufficient alone for entry.
Position and Risk Management General Rules: The core discipline in event-driven markets is "do not bet on direction"
1. Total position controlled within 10%. BTC options expiring November 4th have implied volatility risen to about 43.5%, with traders hedging election-induced volatility. Directional bets before the event are essentially gambling, not trading.
2. BTC 78,600 and ETH 2,340 are bearish stop-loss lines; if prices close above, exit and observe, do not hold positions.
3. The optimal strategy is "wait for rebound to resistance before acting," avoid chasing shorts in the middle. BTC’s 77,000–77,300 and ETH’s 2,255–2,270 are levels bears are willing to defend; if prices drop without rebound, better to miss out.
4. Whether deleveraging is complete is the core mid-term directional observation. Current funding rates are near zero but bullish willingness is weak; if rates turn negative and open interest shrinks, that is the window for bearish logic fulfillment and considering right-side reversal. Until then, cash positions themselves are a form of position.When I look at the questions about Bitcoin in the prediction market, I often assume it will go up even before checking the deadline. Buying spot allows you to wait patiently, but in the prediction market, the result must be determined by the rules at expiration; you can't just say it will go back up later. The odds reflect how much participants are willing to assign a probability to a certain outcome, but they are not the truth. I originally wanted to use it to test my own biases, but when I encounter odds I don't like, I start to find faults with their liquidity. Why is it that whenever I look at these things, I have to defend Bitcoin first?$PONS has really been abandoned by the market! This is not only reflected in the price trend but also directly shown in the protocol revenue. Currently, protocol revenue has dropped by more than 90% compared to its previous peak. Now, the little revenue is used to buy back and burn PONS. Although it's better than nothing, it doesn't quench the thirst at all. Burning about 100,000 tokens daily, but the selling pressure is at least several million tokens. So, I think PONS is basically beyond saving now; no one can save it. The fundamentals have deteriorated, and $PONS has lost its value. The logic behind my previous long position has changed, so I don't plan to keep bottom-fishing. I accept the losses from before!看着SNDK这波回抽，我心里其实有点复杂。 这次是真的稳住了，还是只是给上次爆仓的人一个喘息的窗口？ 上一轮我在它身上连爆三次，说不疼是假的。现在它从持续阴跌里探出头来，盘面给人的感觉确实从单边下压变成了找方向。但越是这样的时候，我越不敢把"反弹"和"反转"混着看。 先把数字摆出来。日线冲到1400美元附近被压回，10月30日放量跌了13.47%，收在1150.89美元，那根阴线分量很重。现在价格就卡在1150这个第一支撑上方，往下1112是下一道防线；上方1196是短线修复要过的坎，站上1240才算把弱势结构掰回来一点。RSI在35附近，接近超卖，有技术性修复的需求，可MACD还在空头区间里没掉头。 我看到的信号其实分两拨。偏暖的一拨是超卖加支撑守住后出现的自然反抽，说明这个位置有人愿意接；偏冷的一拨是量能和结构都还没转，反弹更像是跌多了之后的呼吸，而不是趋势换了方向。 这里市场真正在交易的是事件重定价——闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值被重新拿出来讨论。调仓这种事儿，被动资金的动作往往提前被计价，等消息落地反而容易变成兑现点。所以我会盯两件事：一是1150能不能守住，二是反弹到1🌙 Uncle's Night Talk｜11.03
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🪙 Crypto｜BTC Approaches Recent Lows, Election Expectations Amplify Regulatory Uncertainty BTC's intraday low was about $76,545, currently fluctuating around $76,800, down about 2% in 24 hours. But it should be noted: this level is not strictly a one-month low; a lower price appeared on October 30. Uncle's Observation: Today, the crypto market is facing not only technical pressure but also disturbances from U.S. political and regulatory expectations. Polymarket data shows the implied probability of Democrats taking the House is about 94.5%, and the Senate about 76.5%. This reflects traders' bets on congressional control, not the final election outcome. The market worries that if the congressional makeup changes, the crypto legislative agenda may face renegotiation, increasing uncertainty in the pace of progress and regulatory framework. However, it is not a given that any bill will be postponed until 2027. Tonight, watch two things: whether BTC can hold recent lows, and whether regulatory expectations worsen after election results. In the short term, focus on price support first; don't rush to treat political odds as a certainty. 🇨🇳 A-share Review｜Trillions SFISF Officially Operates, ChiNext Still Down Nearly 3%: Policy Support Does Not Equal Price Bottom The three major indexes all closed lower: Shanghai Composite -0.82% at 3,608.10 points, Shenzhen Component -1.21% at 10,876.99 points, ChiNextBitcoin is heading for its fifth consecutive week of decline, tying the third longest losing streak in history.
From week 40 to week 44, Bitcoin slid from around $87,000 to about $76,500.
The longest streak was 8 weeks in 2022, and there was also a 6-week losing streak earlier this year.
But the weekly candle hasn't closed yet, so whether this fifth week counts will have to wait until Sunday.
A losing streak has never been proof of a bottom; it only shows that this drop has lasted long and been dull enough.
#BTC #CryptoSun Ge mouthily claims a net worth of 85 billion USD
But ends up scrambling to gather even 140 million USD, pushing to the brink of bankruptcy?
Pledges 580 million TRX, wildly prints 60 million air USDD
Then swaps it through the official pool into USDT
Finally throws it all into Binance to earn 10% yield.
This operation is too real, flashy on the surface
But behind the scenes, it's almost unsustainable.
How much real cash does Sun Ge actually have left? $TRX They say history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes,
When an exchange has a major incident, is it often the bottom of a bear market?
Yahoo Finance compared it to FTX, which suspended withdrawals on November 8, 2022,
About a year after the 2021 peak, and the crypto market bottomed two weeks later,
Then the total market cap rose 18% over the next 6 months, and $BTC rose 40%.
This time Binance was hacked, also about a year after the peak,
And this round's retracement was only 52% at its deepest, much shallower than 73% in 2022.
Still hoping the market can get better!Should L2 really go independent? Let me lay out the numbers first.
STRK current price 0.04354, 24h +5.04%, high 0.04519, low 0.04003. At the same time BTC -0.56%, ETH -0.32%, basically unchanged. Among similar L2s, ARB +1.73%, ZK +0.60%, OP -1.75%, POL -1.49%, gains and losses mixed, only STRK stands out.
On the news front, StarkWare demonstrated a quantum-resistant wallet migration on the Starknet Sepolia testnet (reported by TokenPost). Note this is only a testnet, not available on mainnet yet. The previous community vote with 93.52% support was only to authorize research on whether Starknet should become an independent quantum-resistant L1, not to approve migration. The whitepaper draft is only coming out this month; if they really want to switch, another binding vote is needed.
So this 5% gain looks more like trading the story in advance rather than actual implementation. There are several steps between testnet demo and mainnet launch. I’ll wait to see what the whitepaper says first.
L2 wants to "split" from Ethereum, do you think this is a plus or a minus? #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $STRK $ARB $OP $BNB
CZ said the frequency of hacker attacks will continue to rise. I believe that. He said the withdrawal wave might not be over yet, just that some money has started to flow back.
What really surprised me was another announcement from Binance itself: the hourly deposit volume has already exceeded the withdrawal volume.
Binance was hacked, yet BNB only dropped 0.59% today. The highest was 708, the lowest 691, with a daily volatility of 2.4%, more stable than many small coins that had no incidents.
This reaction shows the market has classified the exchange hack as a technical event, not a credit event. What a credit event looks like was seen in 2022, called a bank run.
There’s another detail few people talk about: Thorchain’s single-day revenue increased by 2229% because the stolen money was being bridged and laundered there. The funds that ran out haven’t left the market, just moved to another place.
My view is rather cold. Price stability doesn’t mean the issue is over. Immediately calling for a security alliance or the US government to intervene sounds like a long-term project. Short-term can stabilize the market, but long-term depends on whether anyone really takes losses.
I was too optimistic about this kind of thing last time and got trapped once. This time I’m not rushing to take sides.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Crypto Evening Report: Liquidity Game and Fork Countdown
Three main focuses on rates, whales, and forks, here is the latest tracking of $BTC $ETH $ZEC:
$BTC
🔥 BTC | 76582, Fear Index 27
ETF outflow of 399 million in one day
Rate +0.007%, bulls keep paying
Deleveraging not finished, rebound only closes shorts, no new funds entering
Repair target 77400, bottom line 76600
Waiting for rate to concede
$ETH
🐋 ETH | 2256
ETF outflow for 23 consecutive days sets new record
Whales transferred out 34.69 million USDC, average price 2279 to buy 15,216 ETH
Above 2347, 477 million short liquidation zone
Below 2143, long liquidation danger zone
Whale buying vs ETF selling pressure, endurance battle
$ZEC
⚡️ ZEC | 1243
NU7 hard fork activates November 5, block time 75s→25s
Buy the expectation, sell the fact, fell back from 1400
Support 1180-1200, break to watch 1050-1100
🎯 Core tracking
BTC watches rate | ETH watches 2143 | ZEC watches 1200
Market will soon give direction
❓ Which side do you think will break first?
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 Kraken has restricted a batch of accounts due to a $133 million cryptocurrency theft case within the EU.
To clarify what is certain: the amount is $133 million, it occurred within the EU, Kraken is investigating, and the related accounts have been restricted; it also stated that its system and customer accounts were not affected. As for where the money originally came from or how it was lost, nothing was disclosed.
What’s truly worth pondering is the action of "restricting accounts." Exchanges are not law enforcement agencies, but they hold something others don’t — deposit paths and identity information. When a large amount of stolen funds wants to be cashed out, it will most likely end up on a platform with KYC. So restricting accounts is often not the end, but a way to pin down clues in time: who deposited how much and when, all recorded.
For holders, the implication is not complicated: this kind of news hurts a specific link, not the market’s settlement capability. The holding logic of mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH has not been rewritten. Kraken’s emphasis that "systems and customer accounts were not affected" is itself an attempt to cut off panic transmission.
But looking at it from another angle, the fact that $133 million worth of funds could move a certain distance before being discovered shows there is always a time lag between on-chain tracking and platform risk control. Recovering the funds depends on cooperation and luck; not recovering them is the norm.
What’s worth thinking about is: when "not affected" becomes a phrase that must be publicly stated, the security narrative of this industry still relies on post-incident clarifications to be maintained.$CAP is showing some signs of life after that rough pullback. Price is now around $0.07432, up 1.86%, and sitting above MA5, MA10 and MA20 on the 4H chart. What caught my eye is the attempt to build a higher base after falling from the $0.12134 peak. I’m watching $0.07574 as the immediate hurdle. If buyers can break it with decent volume, the recovery could get more interesting. But one green candle doesn't make a trend. The most striking thing today isn't the drop, but the fact that both sides are contradicting each other.
$BTC touched 76,500 and was pulled back, the panic index dropped eleven points in one day, directly down to 26. ETFs saw over 800 million USD outflow in six days, with BlackRock alone redeeming 400 million.
But on-chain whales reversed and added up to 3.03 million coins, the strongest accumulation since February.
Those in suits are selling, while those holding cold wallets are buying; the bottom is never consensus, it's just calling each other fools.
$ETH is interesting too; one address spent 37 million USD in five hours to buy over 16,000 coins at an average price of 2,279, and hasn't stopped.
The A-share market is playing the same script but in a different venue.
The Shanghai Composite Index only fell 0.8%, the STAR Market Composite Index plunged 4.8%, and the electronics sector saw a net outflow of over 8 billion. But the power equipment sector absorbed over 6 billion, food and beverage took in over 4 billion, and Moutai rose against the market trend, with a net inflow of over 6 billion in five days.
The US stock market was also split last night. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 3.3%, Intel dropped nearly 9%, Lumentum lost 18% straight. But the Chinese concept Golden Dragon Index reversed and rose over 2 points, and Bilibili rose more than 6 points.
The money hasn't left; it's just changing seats. Moving from the most crowded side to a place where no one is fighting for it.