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The strategy only added 250 BTC last week, pushing the holdings to 848,000 BTC, but the USD balance dropped by 193 million in a week, leaving only 5.52 billion.
250 BTC at the current price is just over 20 million USD, the remaining over 100 million all went into preferred stock dividends and interest. Collecting a symbolic amount of coins weekly, the checks issued to shareholders end up costing more than the coins bought. When you do the math, who is really working for whom?
$BTC
$ETH 马斯克 5 年前给狗狗币提的要求，现在真有人做出来了！
最近 $DOGE 有条技术新闻值得关注，Metallicus 推出的 DogecoinVM 已经进入 Alpha 测试阶段，交易确认速度据称比原生狗狗币网络快了约 300 倍。
这件事要从 2021 年说起。
当时马斯克就提过，狗狗币如果想成为真正的日常支付工具，需要提高交易处理能力、缩短确认时间。
如今 DogecoinVM 给出了一种解决方案。
根据 10 月 7 日披露的信息，新系统采用独立的支付处理层，交易最终确认时间约为 0.15～0.25 秒，同时兼容现有 DOGE 钱包和地址，无需修改 Dogecoin Core。
不过，这里有个容易被误解的地方：提速发生在 DogecoinVM 上，并不意味着狗狗币主链突然加速了 300 倍。
目前项目还处于 Alpha 阶段，单次存入上限为 100 DOGE，跨链桥也尚未完成独立安全审计。距离大规模商业应用，还有不少问题要解决。 $BTC $BZ 今日美股行情！ 黄金btc下跌，石油上涨
中东地缘风险推高原油，市场担心能源价格重新推升通胀；与此同时，资金正在等待美国 CPI 数据，重新评估美联储利率路径。
结合今天的最新报道，BTC 和黄金同步下跌，比较明确的共同压力是美元走强，以及市场对本周美国通胀数据和美联储利率路径的担忧。 BTC 还叠加了杠杆仓位被动平仓的风险。
但这里有一个重要细节：美国国债市场今天因哥伦布日休市，所以不能把刚才的下跌直接归因于美债收益率突然拉升Summary of tonight's live stream strategy;
$BTC short position at 84000 reached the first target at 82388,
already took profit on half the position, holding the rest for the 81388 target!
$ETH short position at 2563 reached the first target range of 2508,
already took profit on half the position, holding the rest for the 2478 target!$XRP is bearish in the short term, down 1.70% in 24 hours, with the current price at 1.3749, hovering near the intraday low of 1.3689. The main squeeze today was on long leverage, with 290 long liquidations totaling $1.56 million and 112 short liquidations totaling $690,000. However, this volume is very small compared to the $410 million contract open interest; leverage is far from cleared, and most of the previously entered longs are still holding. If the price breaks down another level, new forced liquidations will follow. The funding rates for three periods remain above zero, which is just background information and not used to determine direction. The upward structure on the chart reflects a higher-level peak and reacts slowly. The short term has already weakened, with volume increasing on the decline and shrinking on the rebound, RSI at 38 in the weak zone, and a 4.2% amplitude closing at the lower edge. Next, I expect it to break below 1.3689 and look for new support lower. The condition to turn bullish is a volume-backed move back above 1.426; if that happens, this view will be invalidated. High leverage ready for the long term
Either have enough margin
Or take profits
Don't be reckless
If you think your head is tough
You'll end up with a bloody head兄弟们，拉，再拉，也不过是垂死前的挣扎！
看截图，$MAGIC 我0.15173开的空单，现价0.12001，浮盈62.71%，方向踩得死死的。
为什么这么笃定？当初在涨幅榜看到它一天拉了60%以上，那种位置就是典型的情绪盘，靠杠杆和空头爆仓堆出来的，根本没有真实买盘支撑。涨得越猛，摔得越狠。现在拉一下，就是给空头送加仓机会，垂死挣扎而已。
盘面上，MAGIC从高位一路砸下来，冲高就是诱多，追高的全被埋在山顶。上方全是套牢盘，下方承接薄得像纸。
我0.15173进的空单继续拿着，防守放0.14上方，下方先看0.11，跌破就是0.10。找准位置，找准方向，剩下的交给时间。
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Technology Diffusion Curve - Technology Diffusion Curve
SanDisk closed at $1581.82 on October 9 and further dropped to about $1559.79 in pre-market trading on October 12. Chinese memory manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced progress in advanced DRAM design, triggering market concerns about intensified future competition and pressure on memory prices. SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix all weakened simultaneously.
This is used to analyze the process of a technology moving from research breakthroughs to commercialization and large-scale application. For the memory industry, even if new memory architectures or higher-density chip designs achieve breakthroughs at the laboratory stage, they still need to go through yield improvement, mass production validation, customer certification, and cost optimization before truly changing the industry's supply and demand. Investors should distinguish between "technological breakthroughs" and "commercial impact": the former affects market expectations, while the latter substantively changes capacity, pricing, and profit margins. For SanDisk, AI storage demand remains a long-term growth logic, but competitors' technological advances may alter the future supply landscape, so it is necessary to evaluate both demand growth and supply expansion speed.
Regarding capital, the recent decline accompanied by relatively high trading volume indicates expanded chip distribution divergence, but it cannot yet be directly concluded that institutions are continuously net selling. Going forward, key observations include NAND prices, company order fulfillment, and whether the stock price can stop falling and stabilize.
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Why has the recent token unlock market collectively "gone cold"? After pulling the real data, I discovered these 3 painful truths 🧵👇
Lately, many watching the market are puzzled: why even if some tokens slightly rise on their unlock day, the overall effect shows no profit? Sometimes the event passes with no movement or even a steady decline?
I pulled the actual market performance data for the batch of tokens unlocked from 10.10 to 10.12 (including PUMP, UB, SOL, APT, RAVE, RYO, CARV, etc.) for the 7 days before and after unlocking. The data reveals very clear game characteristics:
1. The unlock rally was already over-leveraged and shorted "7 days before" the unlock
💡 Logic: The current funds and market makers are too smart. When the unlock calendar is clear, funds don’t wait until the unlock day to sell; instead, they hedge with contracts, borrow and sell tokens, or withdraw liquidity 4–7 days in advance to avoid risk. What you see as "poor market performance" is because the downtrend had already crushed sentiment around D-4.
2. The unlock event is not a "sell-off exhaustion followed by a sharp rally," but a "calm and weak rebound"
Looking at the post-event performance:
💡 Logic: In the past, everyone believed "unlock event = sell-off exhaustion and then a positive rally." But currently, the overall market is in a weak, oscillating state (BTC mostly weak or slightly rebounding), and incremental buying liquidity is extremely scarce. Even if a dump doesn’t happen immediately, no new funds are willing to buy in after the unlock to push prices up, resulting in only a weak pulse of about 0.x%. Damn! It's really taking off! The whale is awesome! Whale, smash it hard for me!
Look at this short position, opened at 0.10393, now the mark price is 0.09339! Floating profit +29.54 U, +30.45%! I just finished eating on the long side, flipped to a short and got another big bite, I even admire myself for this move!
The whale really listens to me, the dragon's breath is really blowing out for me! From 0.10 smashed straight down to 0.093, that force, that speed, so satisfying!
2800 contracts, 3x leverage, margin only 97 dollars, now floating profit almost 30 dollars. What does precise control mean? This is it! Finished the long, then took the short, killing both sides, the whale is completely tamed by me this round.
Previously BTC lost 11,000, SAND liquidated, USELESS paid tuition, my account was so green I doubted my life. Now STRK this round, from 0.07382 to 0.12177, then flipped short to 0.09339, eating both long and short, wave after wave, really damn satisfying!
Whale, keep smashing! Don't stop! 0.09 is already here, next stop 0.088! Bury all those still going long! Smash hard, smash to zero!
Hahaha, these days of eating both long and short, that's the life! Whale, you finally got it!
$STRK #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard 补充一个ETH 我的交割单。
刚才忘记发出来了。
反复重复这些压力啊，支撑啊，之类的，也许我在故意说，你呢故意不想听。
但没关系，只有充分复盘，反复提醒自己，才能知道啰嗦在币圈意味着什么？
意味着ETH没经过的一坑，只要你稍不注意，就会重复的再次跳进去。
那我相信ETH 我说压力位2566说了10次，又有几人真的相信呢？
一样的死守着短线的ETH多单，舍不得放弃，还幻想一飞冲天。
现在可能吗？不可能的。
我现在全部清仓了，我现在空仓之中。 $BTC 100x short position, opening average price 83,938.9. Halfway through my late-night snack, the market suddenly moved. The whole network was still holding positions waiting for a rebound, but I put down my chopsticks and opened a 100x short at 83,938 directly. The mark price dropped to 82,585.2, and unrealized profit violently surged to +164%. This late-night snack was on the main force.
100x leverage is not gambling; it’s absolute domination under volume-price divergence. While others panic to add margin, I calmly enjoy my skewers; the market language had already indicated the bulls were exhausted. I took the whole meal for those who followed; for those who didn’t... remember to watch the market next time during your late-night snack.
Currently, do not chase shorts. Listen carefully to your positions: take 80% profit off the table, keep 20% for zero-cost trend speculation, move stop-loss up to lock in gains, don’t let a late-night snack eat away your profits.
I can eat and harvest at 100x leverage, but you might not. The market doesn’t lack volatility; it lacks the insight to see through the market at a glance while enjoying skewers. $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test $DOGE 永续50倍空单，0.08691开，现0.08499，浮盈+110.45%。
没想太多：前期盘整够久，0.08691 平台反复确认有效，顶部特征很清楚。放量阴线一出就进，跟趋势不跟情绪。50倍，止损 0.09。砸得又快又稳，完全不给二次进场机会，大肉单到手。
0.087 先锁一层安全垫。我个人判断 0.082 附近会有支撑，到时候看量能决定是走还是留，不提前猜底。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #Institutions Keep Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
The boss has something to say
Institutions are buying, so why is BTC still falling? The answer is simple: short-term price is determined by marginal selling pressure, not by long-term buying.
ETF data shows a net outflow of $731 million from October 7 to 8, and only a $21.13 million inflow on the 9th, less than 3% of the outflow. Morgan Stanley MSBT holds 10,639 BTC, and Strive also plans to raise funds to increase holdings, but these are slow money. Slow money can’t catch fast money, so the price remains under pressure.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, oil prices are high, and CPI is about to be released. Macro pressure hasn’t eased, and risk assets are generally suppressed.
Today I closed my 84,000 short at 82,800, pocketing 1,200 points profit. I still hold a long at 83,000 and a short at 86,500, hedging both sides with a light position. I won’t bet on a single direction before CPI is out. Long stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that side first.
Institutional positioning is a long-term signal; short-term rhythm depends on capital flow. Don’t chase the rally or kill the dip; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your positions. Good luck.Many times,
when your logic is correct,
we are just afraid of losing continuously!
Just like this short position,
I started shorting since last Friday,
knowing that yesterday it broke the previous small high point and hit my stop loss.
Then I stubbornly continued to short a bit more.
Then I got stopped out again.
Then today at the 84138 position, I continued to short,
and then caught this wave of decline tonight.
Although I haven't taken profits yet,
seeing these gains actually brings some thoughts:
1. Although this time I firmly stuck to my logic, due to the stop losses in previous trades, my subsequent position sizes became lighter and lighter, meaning I became more and more hesitant to increase my position size. So even though the market direction eventually followed the script I predicted, I couldn't earn the confident money from the beginning.
2. The market always deviates from my direction by some points, and at these times, stop losses easily make us doubt ourselves, making execution always challenging.
3. My initial prediction was to see a recent new low, and whether this smooth decline can reach the recent new low? I can only make a simple conclusion before midnight tonight. If I hold overnight, I will also set a breakeven stop loss.$ETH 永续100倍空单，2551.7开，现2522.63，浮盈+113.92%。
就是赌一个顶部反转：2551.7 三次测试不破，量能阶梯式递减，顶部特征很标准。等阴线砸下来那一刻进场，绝不提前猜顶。100倍，止损 2600。这一波走得非常干净，几乎没有反抽，收益稳步攀升。
暂时不动，让子弹飞一会儿。2550 作为防守线先挂着保住本金安全，等 2500 那边给明确信号再说加不减的事，不着急。$BTC $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 🔥 BTC rebounds near 84,000, have altcoins really caught up?
The most noteworthy thing today isn’t how much BTC has rebounded, but the performance gap among major coins over the past week.
As of October 12, public market data shows BTC down about 1.81% for the week, ETH down about 5.39%, and SOL down about 6.47%. Although the market has recovered from lows, altcoins had fallen deeper before, so looking at just one day’s gains can easily overlook that the overall recovery is not yet complete.
Next, focus on three key levels: whether BTC can hold near 83,000, whether ETH can firmly reclaim above 2,550, and whether SOL can continue its rebound. Before the US CPI release on Wednesday, the market may continue to fluctuate.
Personally, I’m more concerned about whether the rebound is sustainable. If BTC continues to strengthen but altcoins still lag behind, it indicates that risk appetite among investors may not have truly returned. In the short term, don’t just focus on the gainers list; after the rebound, who can hold their ground is what’s really worth watching.TIA at $0.55, do you dare to bottom-fish?
From 0.47 to 0.63, a 21% increase in a week, everyone is shouting "modular revival," but the on-chain fees are only tens of dollars a day—so is this really a reversal or just the last hurrah of a narrative coin?
Let's look at the surface first: a pullback after a pulse, the daily trend is not broken.
The 0.55 you see on Binance perpetuals is basically the lower edge of this pullback. The 24-hour low is 0.555, spot is hovering between 0.56-0.59. Up 21% in the past 7 days, 64% in 30 days, from 0.47 to 0.63, then retraced. Market cap is 550-570 million. Still down 97% from the all-time high of 20.85 in February 2024.
Candlesticks tell you: bottoming from 0.33-0.44 at the end of September, volume breakout above 0.50 in early October, surged to 0.63 on October 11 then retraced. Daily is still above the 20-day moving average (around 0.49), daily RSI reached 67, strong but no longer cheap. 15-minute chart is weak, 1-hour and daily are bullish—typical "daily trend intact, short-term shaking out longs."
0.55 is a decision point, not a confirmed bottom.
First: Fibre testnet at 3.07 Tb/s, very strong, but still a testnet.
The market interprets this as "data availability layer can handle massive rollups," pushing price and positions up.
Sounds exciting, right?
But what about the mainnet timeline? Not nailed down.
Testnet data can’t be counted as mainnet revenue, PPT can’t be counted as cash flow. You can pay for the narrative, but don’t mistake narrative for financials.
Second: Inflation proposal cut from 5% to 0.25%+ burn, sounds sexy but not activated yet.
The Sustainable Blob Economy proposal revised in late September aims to reduce annual issuance from about 5% to 0.25%, plus fee burning. This is the inflection point for the inflation narrative.
But note: it’s still a proposal, not activated mainnet parameters.
More painfully, fees. Public data shows 24-hour fees as low as tens of dollars, 30-day fees far from matching a market cap of over 500 million dollars.
Lower inflation is good, but a chain without fees is a lonely deflation. Current pricing buys "modular DA becoming standard + issuance dropping + fees eventually rising," not current cash flow.
Third: Unlock noise needs to be separated, don’t be scared by two-year-old news.
There’s still talk online about "1.75 billion TIA unlocking on October 30"—that’s a large unlock in 2024, not 2026.
Current progress is about 93% unlocked; core contributor linear release is nearing the end, ending daily drip of hundreds of thousands, not a one-time dump. The next relatively sizable unlock is about 5.6 million on October 31 (about 0.6% supply).
Selling pressure is an order of magnitude smaller than in 2024, but don’t treat it as "no supply."
Don’t scare yourself with old news from two years ago, but don’t treat 0.6% supply as air either.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Fibre testnet 3.07 Tb/s, narrative fully loaded
Inflation proposal pushing to 0.25% + burn, expected inflection
Derive V3 selects Celestia as DA layer, a rare production-grade use case
Daily still above mid-to-long-term moving averages, trend intact
Funding rate positive, longs paying
On the other side:
On-chain fees still very small, 24h fees once only tens of dollars
Fierce competition: Ethereum blob, EigenDA competing for budget
BTC oscillating near 80k, altcoin season index falling
Open interest falling after pulse, chasing longs digesting
0.63 not passed, position cost rising under positive funding rate
Key levels
Resistance above: 0.59-0.60 (intraday recovery needed to stop decline) → 0.63 (2026 high, volume breakout needed for new space) → 0.65-0.70 (needs sector support)
Support below: 0.55-0.56 (break means short-term weakness) → 0.50-0.52 (break previous platform, bulls must defend) → 0.47/0.44 (early October start zone, break means this rally ends)
Trading strategy
Short-term:
Around 0.55 only suitable for small positions to observe, not heavy positions. Close (4h or daily) back above 0.58-0.59 to consider light longs, target 0.62-0.63, stop loss below 0.54.
Effective break below 0.55 (preferably 4h close) invalidates short-term long logic, next support at 0.52, then 0.50. Better to reduce or short and wait for pullback, not add on the way down.
Failing to break 0.63 with shrinking volume, reduce at highs. Under positive funding rate, chasing longs’ position cost is slowly getting more expensive.
Swing:
Bull scenario: hold 0.50, Fibre mainnet timeline or blob fees appear for visible jump, then look at 0.70.
Neutral scenario: oscillate between 0.50-0.63, digest October 31 unlock and profit-taking.
Bear scenario: fall below 0.47, this modular narrative trade ends, downside space near 0.40.
Position sizing: single trade risk should be a very small part of total capital, leverage as low as possible. Unlock calendar and market rumors often don’t match, rely on on-chain allocation tables, don’t trade based on "October 30 billion sell pressure."
TIA now is like AR in 2024—
Narrative fully loaded, fees zero. When rising, called modular king; when falling, called no-income ghost.
0.55 is not the bottom, it’s the dealer’s multiple-choice question: cut or bet.
You can bet on the narrative at 0.55, but don’t bet your life at 0.55.
$BTC $ETH $TIA The situation with BTC isn't much better.
Just finished criticizing little E, now it's time to talk about BTC, the big poor thing.
BTC at the 83850 level is like a tall mountain, hard to climb, the path is tough and dangerous. It’s intimidating.
Resistance is resistance; BTC around 83850 to 84400 definitely has too many short-term trapped positions. This is obvious, even a small retail investor like me can see it. Who wouldn’t see it?
But my words don’t have much influence yet, so I have to write desperately, write until my voice can reach the other side of the mountain, so that another group of retail investors like me can hear it.
BTC between 80300 and 82500 is flat and safe, like a smooth plain. The problem now is that there’s really no positive news to push BTC forward.
On the contrary, Zelensky said Putin doesn’t listen to Trump at all and hasn’t implemented the energy ceasefire proposal, since the bombing continues.
At the airport in Saudi Arabia, a group of people were killed by bombing, and the attacks continue.
These news are really intense.
Naturally, they wiped out BTC’s slight gains.
Who told you that crude oil directly determines the quality of CPI data?
Recently, just keep an eye on Brent crude oil futures; if they fall, then BTC’s rebound will follow.
But can it fall? I think it’s very difficult. Even Trump can’t settle it!
So caution is the best strategy!! Is $W the Next $STRK ? Beware of Whale Manipulation! ⚠️ Regarding the currently trending $W, I suspect its price action could resemble $STRK , where whales drive sharp pumps followed by sudden dumps. From a fundamental perspective, $W operates in the cross-chain infrastructure sector, which could benefit from the long-term growth of multichain applications, stablecoins, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. However, there are several factors worth watching. The top 10 addresses do not appearBTC has performed relatively steadily after the one-year anniversary of last October's largest single-day liquidation event. Despite market concerns over the US government transferring a large amount of BTC and Ledger being hacked, the price has remained range-bound. BTC has repeatedly attempted to break through $87,000 without success, but the support at $80,000 remains relatively solid. In the options market, implied volatility remains high, and the premium on put options has narrowed, indicating the market is generally waiting for a breakout rather than adopting a defensive stance; if BTC effectively breaks through $87,000, the next target could be $94,000. Notably, there is a large call butterfly options long position expiring on October 30 at strike prices of $90,000/$95,000/$100,000, which is the largest concentrated position for the current month-end. This week, the macroeconomic front will face key tests with the release of US CPI and PPI data, and Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will speak at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. The market currently prices the probability of an October rate hike at about 17%. These data and policy signals may become important triggers for BTC's directional choice. #NewbieMustSee: Everything you need is here #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC 🚨 Big money is rotating again: selling BTC, buying ETH.
In the past 22 hours, one address swapped UBTC for
16,704 ETH (≈42.46 million)
At an average price of $2541
The path is very institutional:
UBTC → USDC → Wintermute → Uniswap Dutch auction → ETH
Not a retail investor's shaky hands, this is smart money.
In the same direction, there have been three consecutive transactions recently:
• A whale sold 410 BTC (34.16 million) → bought 14,341 ETH
• Wang Chun sold 235.5 WBTC → bought 7,848 ETH
• The above UBTC → ETH swap
Veteran BTC players are starting to move into ETH.
But don’t get carried away 🧵
The Ethereum Foundation’s associated wallet transferred
4,393 ETH (≈11.13 million) into Kraken today
Buying on one side, moving old money to exchanges on the other
This is not a “whole market bullish on ETH”
This is:
Betting ETH will outperform BTC
Not betting on the overall market rising
Going forward, only watch three things:
1️⃣ Can ETH/BTC hold steady?
2️⃣ Are ETH ETFs net inflows or just fake hype?
3️⃣ Is the Foundation’s 4,393 ETH really sold or just a false alarm?
The bias can be bullish on ETH
But position sizing should be about "ratio," not "myth."
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test The pottery shards in the ash pit have already shattered down to the bottom layer; this is not a shakeout, but the final collapse before the complete destruction of Pompeii.
Looking back at the stratigraphic records from 2018 and 2022, there has never been even a single fresh fallen leaf under the sun. Currently, $ADA has fallen below 0.2428, just like countless so-called "public chain totems" that fell from their pedestals into the mud back then, ruthlessly crushed by the wheels of history amid human panic selling.
Stratigraphic data does not lie. The 1-hour Bollinger Band lower band at 0.2459 has been forcibly breached, forming a typical stratigraphic subsidence pattern. The RSI has plunged into the extreme oversold zone at 30.5, which in stratigraphic dating corresponds to typical panic-escape sedimentary rock, where liquidity dries up and selling pressure is released in concentration, often accompanied by a technical fault rebound.
When clearing the ruins of the Acropolis in Athens back then, every collapse of a stone pillar would raise a cloud of dust. The current oversold rebound is just a blind dust cloud rising from the ruins, leaving a final exit path for the stubborn sacrificial followers.
- Target: $ADA 🟢
- Entry: 0.2410 - 0.2435
- TP1: 0.2485
- TP2: 0.2512
- SL: 0.2370
History shows no mercy to any blind believer; the strata will eventually bury all arrogance deep. 🏛️🔍
#CoinMoveAlert#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation. Note the distinction: this is only a partial arrangement to pause mutual attacks on energy infrastructure, not a full ceasefire. Frontline fighting continues, and currently it is only an intention, not formally confirmed by either Russia or Ukraine, with high uncertainty.
The market logic is straightforward: if implemented, the stability of Russian refining and refined oil exports will improve, geopolitical premiums will decline, and oil and diesel prices are likely to face downward pressure. Energy is a disruptive factor in this round of inflation; a drop in oil prices would marginally weaken market expectations for inflation rebound and further Fed rate hikes, theoretically indirectly benefiting risk assets like the Nasdaq and crypto.
However, the key point is that this is currently expectation-driven trading, with a high probability of fluctuating news. If subsequent negotiations stall or energy facilities are attacked again, oil prices will quickly rebound, reigniting inflation concerns and suppressing risk appetite.
For the crypto market, this is a macro sentiment catalyst, not a substantial liquidity easing, so the positive impact is relatively weak, making sustained large single-direction gains difficult. Ongoing monitoring of official Russia-Ukraine statements is needed to confirm whether a formal written arrangement is established. $BTC $ETH $SOL Big Brother Maji's $60 million position
Long and short intertwined with high leverage
Watching it makes your heart race
HYPE short position floating loss over five million
BTC 40x short earned $130,000
ETH stubbornly holding long position still losing—a typical whale's gamble
Small profits
But losses can be deadly
Margin over five million holding a $60 million position
A single fluctuation could trigger liquidation
Retail investors must never blindly follow
This kind of play is not investing, it's gambling with your life. $BTC $ZEC 永续50倍空单，1303.92开，现1273.32，浮盈+117.33%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 1303.92 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 1350。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 1300 让利润跑。1250 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 ETH and BTC are stagnant, but it quietly rose 20%
STRK, the token of Starknet, is reported at 0.1249u. While the market has been flat for a whole week, it surged 20% in one day, leading the entire Layer2 sector.
The reason can be summed up in one sentence. The CEO of StarkWare announced yesterday afternoon that the team is considering making Starknet independent from Ethereum and turning it into a standalone L1.
This is not a technical upgrade, but a declaration of sovereignty.
His reason is hardcore — quantum resistance upgrade. Starknet aims to achieve full quantum security by 2027, nearly three years earlier than Ethereum's target at the end of 2029. Based on the STARK proof architecture, wallet accounts can upgrade their signature schemes while retaining original addresses and assets, without requiring a hard fork of the entire network.
But what the market is buying into is not the technical detail of quantum security.
What they buy into are the four words "independent from Ethereum." For the past two years, all Layer2 narratives have been built on the premise of "extension of Ethereum." If Starknet truly becomes an L1, it means it must support its own validators, bear its own security costs, and compete with L1s like Sol and Sui for ecosystem.
This is an extremely costly bet and a complete narrative turnaround.
$STRK's surge is driven by narrative, not fundamentals. The transition to L1 might not happen until 2027 at the earliest, with governance votes, technical validation, and ecosystem migration as three major hurdles. Short-term sentiment has already ignited; at the 0.1249 level, chasing the high carries significant risk #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When macro and technical aspects clash, I basically don’t try to guess who will ultimately win anymore; instead, I first reduce my position size.
I used to be easily influenced by macro trends. For example, even when the candlestick was clearly weakening, I would tell myself to wait because "rate cut expectations are still there" and "liquidity will return."
Later, I realized that the market sometimes doesn’t follow the macro logic as you understand it at all.
So now my order of priority is:
Technical analysis decides whether I enter, macro decides whether I dare to hold a heavy position.
For example, if BTC’s structure is still rising and key supports haven’t broken, even if the short-term macro outlook is bearish, I might still trade but with a smaller position.
Conversely, if the macro outlook is all positive but the price just can’t rise, or even drops after good news, I become more cautious.
Because this often means: the positive news everyone knows might already be priced in.
Before major events like FOMC, CPI, or Nonfarm Payrolls, I basically don’t suddenly max out my position anymore.
I either reduce my position in advance or clearly plan my stop loss. After the data is released, I first watch how the market moves, rather than relying on news headlines telling me whether it should go up or down.
Macro tells me why it might rise; price tells me whether the market really wants to rise.
When the two conflict, I respect the price first.
Because news can be interpreted in many ways, but the profit and loss in your account won’t reason with you.
@OKX星球 Those wanting to profit, follow up! Brothers!
$ETH shorting opportunity is here, current price 2523, my opening average price is 2534.62, already floating a profit of 1.34%,
Look at the market, above 2523.32 to 2523.22 there are sell orders pressing down, 51.41 units at 2523.22, selling pressure is heavy. Although there are buy orders below, 179.17 units at 2523.21 supporting the bottom, the price can't be pushed up. The long-short ratio is 91% to 9%, long accounts are extremely crowded, retail investors are stubbornly holding long positions—this extreme structure, once broken, will cause a stampede.
Why bearish on ETH? The overall market is already showing weakness, early-stage speculative coins like ZEC and NMR are pulling back, it's hard for ETH to stand alone. The strong resistance zone is from 2530 to 2550, multiple attempts to break above have been smashed back, the double top pattern is becoming clearer. Also, this rebound from the bottom has lacked volume support, relying solely on small retail orders pushing, it can't withstand a big fund sell-off.
Technically, 2523 is short-term support, if it doesn't hold the next target is 2500, breaking that leads to 2450.
Brothers, shorting at high levels is the hard truth, those wanting to profit, follow up!
$BTC $MAGIC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Trend Variety: link
Trend Period: 30-minute trend direction
Review Trend: 30-minute trend third sell retracement
Current Market Cap: 9.963 billion USD
Market Cap Ranking: NO.13
Popularity Ranking: NO.45
Circulation Status: 76.68% circulation rate
Background Ecology: Industry standard oracle
Image 1: October 9 evening session public class strategy providing 30-minute trend direction
Image 2: October 12 current 30-minute trend of link, trend rhythm realized
$BTC $SOL 永续100倍空单，111.49开，现108.65，浮盈+254.73%。
逻辑很简单：111.49 附近反复冲高不破，每次反弹都被快速砸下，上影线越来越长，买盘明显衰竭。等到放量跌破支撑，右侧确认，跟空进去。100倍，止损 115。这一波跌得比较流畅，完全没给反抽机会，收益直接翻了2.5倍。
现在把止损挪到 110 锁利。下方 105 如果放量跌破，还能再拿一拿。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 🚨 Strategy Latest Update: Increased holding by 250 BTC, but the scale of STRC stock buyback is nearly 9 times that amount!
📊 Latest capital movements worth noting
According to original sources, Strategy's capital operations from October 5 to 11 show a notable contrast:
🟠 Bitcoin Accumulation
- Newly purchased: 250 BTC
- Purchase amount: approximately $21.5 million
🔵 STRC Stock Buyback
- Buyback amount: approximately $192.4 million
- Scale about 8.95 times the BTC purchase amount
💰 BTC Holding Financing Source
Most of the funds for this Bitcoin purchase came from selling MSTR stock.
📌 Current Asset Overview of Strategy
- BTC holdings: 848,250 BTC
- Total purchase cost: approximately $64 billion
- Cash reserves: approximately $4.88 billion
🧠 What signals does this data release?
1️⃣ Bitcoin accumulation continues. Strategy keeps increasing BTC holdings, continuing its long-term Bitcoin reserve strategy.
2️⃣ Capital allocation is noteworthy. The STRC buyback amount is significantly higher than the BTC purchase amount, indicating that the company's capital operations during this period are not solely focused on increasing Bitcoin holdings. Before the interest rate hike meeting lands, can Ethereum $ETH continue to surge?
My judgment is very clear: this round of the market is unlikely to continue rising.
First, look at the volume structure. This rebound rose from 2406 to 2564, an increase of over 150 points, but the 4-hour level trading volume is far less than the previous decline phase, indicating insufficient buying momentum and a lack of capital support for the rise.
The 2560-2600 range above is both a densely trapped area accumulated previously and suppressed by the 30-day moving average. Every time the price touches this range, it tends to trigger short sellers to increase their positions.
Next, look at on-chain capital supply: BitMine has already stopped increasing ETH holdings; the number of validators exiting the queue has surged from 166,000 to 851,000, and a large volume of staked ETH unlocking and selling pressure will arrive in the next two weeks.
Supply continues to increase on one side, while buying demand contracts on the other.
Combined with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, most officials tend to maintain the rate hike, and market liquidity will tighten further.
Therefore, this round of rebound essentially looks more like creating entry opportunities for shorts.
Want to continue surging before the rate hike meeting? I am not optimistic.
⚠️ Risk warning: Leveraged trading carries great risks. The above is only a personal market view and does not constitute any investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and rate hike expectations face a test 不要盲目追空，也不要在左侧交易抄底，耐心等待信号。
美股存储板块持续调整，加密市场也经历较大波动。我认为当前最重要的不是寻找交易机会，而是控制风险。
1. 市场环境
美债收益率处于高位，油价和通胀压力仍在。今天存储板块又受到长鑫存储技术进展带来的竞争担忧冲击，市场不确定性增加。
2. 本周关键事件
10月14日20:30：美国CPI
10月15日02:00：美联储褐皮书
10月15日20:30：美国PPI
此外，10月27日至28日还有美联储议息会议。
这些事件可能改变利率预期和资金风险偏好，数据公布前后容易出现剧烈的双向波动。
3. 我的交易思路
下跌不代表还能继续跌，盲目追空容易遇到反弹；同样，跌幅大也不意味着便宜，左侧抄底可能只是买在半山腰。
目前我更倾向于保留资金，等待市场止跌、资金回流，再考虑小仓位、低杠杆参与。
我的观点：
投资不是每天都必须交易。方向看对了，不代表入场时机正确。
相比短期利润，我更重视本金安全和长期积累。
市场永远有机会，但本金失去了，机会也就没有意义。
$BTC $SNDK $ETH 技术结构：箱体中轴承压，下方支撑密集
日线级别——经过3天反弹，价格触及箱体中轴 83,888美元 后受阻回落，日线布林带收口走平，MACD快慢线交叉向下但量柱缩量，属于大跌后的震荡修复期，方向尚未明确。
4小时/小时级别——价格在 82,500-83,888 的箱体区间内运行，箱体下沿支撑在 81,200美元 一线。当前价格已跌破箱体中轴，正在测试下沿支撑强度。
关键结构：CryptoQuant基于成本分布的分析明确指出，84,000-85,000美元是上方核心阻力带，77,000-79,000美元是下方核心支撑带。82,500正处于这两个关键区间之间的"中间地带"。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Brothers, what coin is this? It dares to pump so much in one day. If you dare to pump, I dare to short!
Look at the screenshot, $W pumped directly 35.21% today, current price 0.024051, 24-hour trading volume is not small. The long-short ratio is 34% longs to 66% shorts, shorts dominate. I opened a short at 0.024101, 2100 units, full position 3x leverage, current price 0.024051, floating profit 0.62%, moving close to the cost line. On the order book, from 0.024059 to 0.024060 there are sell orders of 214.24K and 238.28K, heavy selling pressure; below from 0.024044 to 0.024048 the buy orders are sparse, support is as thin as paper.
Why dare to short? This kind of coin pumping 35% in one day relies entirely on sentiment trading and short squeeze liquidations, with no real buying support. The more it pumps, the harder it will crash. If you don’t short it at this position, who will? Above are all trapped positions, below the support is as thin as paper, it can’t hold if it falls.
I will keep holding the short at 0.024101, set defense above 0.026, watch 0.022 below first, if it breaks then 0.020.
$BTC $MAGIC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Folks, once TSMC's revenue data came out, the trump card for AI hardware was revealed. Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up about 50% year-over-year, setting a new historical high. September alone surged 54.6%. These numbers show that demand for computing power and storage has never stopped.
But don't just get excited about the revenue; the full earnings report on the 15th has some tough points. First, the gross margin: TSMC's own guidance is 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. This indicates rising cost pressures. If the actual margin falls, the market's profit distribution expectations for the AI hardware chain will need adjustment. Second, management's stance on capital expenditures for Q4 and next year. An increase would indicate continued prosperity, while holding back would be another signal.
For our big coin, no matter how strong the AI hardware logic is, it can't save the short-term macro liquidity. Next week, CPI and PPI data will come out in clusters, and U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.5%. The big coin is still being suppressed around 83,000. Everyone needs to be a bit cautious. $BTC Bitcoin's problem is at 85,000
Ethereum's problem is even more troublesome
Bitcoin has risen again, standing above 84,000.
This weekend's rebound is pushing both sides upward.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first, because everyone is watching it.
There's a large cost resistance overhead.
The densest is between 84,000 and 85,000.
Those who entered at this price back then have just broken even now.
People who just broke even tend to sell.
So this area naturally carries selling pressure.
85,000 is not just a randomly drawn line.
If it can't break through, below is 77,000 to 79,000.
I'm a bit sleepy.
...Where was I?
Right, selling pressure.
Further down is 75,000.
It's not that it can't rise, but someone is quietly withdrawing.
The snapshot on October 10 shows there are still 10.58 million ETH in open contracts.
This number shows the money is still in the market. But longs are decreasing.
Positions haven't exited, but the direction has changed first.
This kind of structure is usually fine, but any volatility causes problems.
Liquidations trigger in chains.
My judgment:
On Bitcoin's side, those breaking even are pressing down.
On Ethereum's side, the longs' direction has softened first.
The former fears it can't rise, the latter fears a sudden drop.
Honestly, I think this rebound has peaked.
No, what I just said is that Ethereum is more fragile.
Don't chase either of them.
What do you think? 暴跌的闪迪！
币圈最骚的真相：你的强平价，交易所比你记得还清楚。
SNDK，50倍杠杆，开仓价1746.7，强平价973.6。价格从1604跌到1582，账户里保证金从10.26变成10.12。每一次波动，资金费率都在偷偷扣我的血。维持保证金率753%，看着还有空间，但在50倍杠杆下，价格反向波动2%就开始被“提醒”了。
今天BTC在83500附近晃，ETH在2533左右，微涨0.7%和0.86%。但过去24小时全网爆仓9585万美元，其中空单爆了7815万，占81.54%。BTC空单清算占90%，ETH空单占79%。
恐慌贪婪指数今天69，还在“贪婪”。价格没怎么涨，情绪先涨了。市场告诉你：别怕，还能涨。然后你信了。
所以币圈最深刻的道理从来不是“拿住就能暴富”。
是：你以为你在赌方向，其实你在赌交易所的清算引擎会不会手抖。有人赌对了方向但仓位太重，有人赌错了方向但仓位轻扛住了。区别在于，前者在ICU，后者在等反弹。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH $ZEC Shorted $W with a 393.47% gain.
The rapid rise creates a strong illusion; many worry about missing out and choose to enter at high levels.
The price repeatedly hits resistance and is blocked, showing weak upward momentum; the bearish window is slowly appearing.
A big surge can easily mislead people; learning to identify market bubbles is key to capturing reversal trends. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $ZEC Watching the market late at night, BTC firmly defends 83,000, tonight is a night of offense and defense
$BTC current price 83,000, down 0.15%. BTC fell all the way from 86,000, bottoming at 80,427, barely climbing back to 83,000. 162 million liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 113 million. ETF net outflow last week was 681 million — institutions are withdrawing, I'm buying. 83,000 is the ETF cost zone; if it can't hold, next target is 80,000.
$ETH current price 2,550, up 1.68%. ETH slowly climbed back from 2,496 to 2,550. But RSI is only 44.6, and the SMA50 at 2,557 presses down like a ceiling. It did rise, but last time I chased at 2,550 and then watched it drop to 2,405.
$ZEC current price 1,235, down 6.48%. Last night it hovered above 1,300, then suddenly broke down. 1,347 failed to break higher, down two days in a row, 1,300 turned from support into resistance. A whale withdrew 26,070 coins, about 31.93 million USD. On-chain activity is moving, price is falling. I bought above 1,300, currently down 5% — purely a bag holder. #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to position, why does BTC remain under pressure? Morgan Stanley says tokenized assets will reach $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030.
First, let's talk about how uncertain this forecast is. For the same thing, four investment banks have these figures:
· McKinsey (baseline scenario): $2 trillion
· Morgan Stanley: $3-10 trillion
· Citi: $5.5 trillion
· Boston Consulting: $16 trillion
The difference between the lowest and highest is 8 times. Morgan Stanley's own range is as wide as 3.3 times—
One institution reporting both $3 trillion and $10 trillion is basically admitting "we're not sure either."
So what is the actual current amount?
Total scale of on-chain RWA protocols: $3.2 billion (excluding stablecoins).
If stablecoins are also counted as tokenized assets, it's $306.2 billion.
From $3.2 billion to $3-10 trillion, that's an increase of 960 to 3200 times.
Even using the broader $309.3 billion figure, it still needs to grow 10 to 32 times.
My judgment: numbers like "reaching X by 2030" shouldn't be memorized; the divergence itself is the information—
It shows the growth path of this market is extremely uncertain, and no one is confident.
Where do you think it will land by 2030—McKinsey's $2 trillion, Morgan Stanley's $3-10 trillion, or Boston Consulting's $16 trillion? For those wanting to bottom-fish tonight, hold on a bit:
BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC — which buy orders will actually catch the dip?
I just thought ETH's buy orders looked good, but after updating the data, I need to adjust my watchlist order.
Right now, I'm more inclined to observe SOL and ZEC's support. BTC has some short-term buyers, while ETH's spot selling pressure is still quite obvious.
BTC: In the last hour, spot net buying was $16.21 million, contract net buying $8.94 million — finally some hands reaching out. Over the past 4 hours, contracts net sold $716 million; now it depends on how long this buying wave can hold.
ETH: Contracts net bought $48.69 million in the last hour, but spot is still net selling. Over the past 4 hours, spot net sold $46.36 million; I’ll feel more confident once spot buy orders return.
SOL: 24-hour spot net buying is $24.12 million, with $2.24 million net bought in the last 4 hours — that makes me want to keep a closer eye. In the last hour, spot net sold $2.97 million again; let’s see if anyone continues to catch the dip.
ZEC: 24-hour spot net buying is $17.27 million, and $106 million net bought in the past week. Contracts also turned to net buying $4.27 million in the last hour; I’m more focused on whether this spot buying momentum can continue.
My order tonight is: first see if BTC can hold steady, then watch SOL and ZEC’s dips, and wait for spot buy orders to return for ETH. $STRK's recent losses have all been recovered on STR. I currently hold two short positions on STR.
One position I started holding from 0.11. This one was quite tough to hold, but it also confirmed that my market intuition was correct. During this period, after a pullback, I added to my position with floating profits, and then experienced a rapid profit retracement caused by a pump-and-dump (weren't you scared off? 😛🖕). Finally, the price broke through as expected, and it couldn't hold 0.1, triggering a rapid decline. The second position, I originally planned to open a single isolated short at 0.097, but the price dropped quickly, making me FOMO, so I opened a short during the rapid decline. Then, after the rapid drop, there was a quick rebound back to 0.097. The rapid changes affected my emotions, so I closed the first position and added margin to the second. Fortunately, the downtrend continued, and when the price returned to my level, I took profits and exited. When you make a mistake, you admit it. I originally wanted to hold the first position down to 0.07, but I'll treat it as a penalty for an operational error. Strategy bought another 250 $BTC for $21.5M, but spent nearly 9X more on STRC share buybacks, repurchasing $192.4M between October 5 and 11.
Most of the Bitcoin purchase was funded through MSTR stock sales. The company now holds 848,250 $BTC , acquired for roughly $64B, with a $4.88B cash reserve.500u challenge to 10,000u｜Today's review: a day of pullback, admit mistakes, summarize, don't get emotional
First, the result: today's account looks bad. Total assets 94.86U, today's profit -12.76U (-11.85%). The intraday high reached 118.81U, then gradually gave back gains. The biggest lesson today is not taking profits when prices surged and not controlling the pullback. No hiding, on the challenge path there are gains and losses; reviewing is more important than just showing profits!
📊 BTC
This morning I mentioned 83,000 as a key support, which didn't hold today. Current price 82,428, daily candle closed down about 1.5%. Currently stuck near MA5/MA30 (82,600-82,700), with clear resistance around 84,000 (MA10, MA20) above.
- Only above 83,000 can we expect a rebound
- Breaking below 82,000 continues the bearish trend, with 80,000 as the next key support
📊 ETH
Current price 2,518, daily down 0.67%, slightly more resilient than BTC but still weak overall in 7-day trend. Resistance above at 2,590-2,640 (dense moving averages), support below at 2,480-2,500 (MA60) is the dividing line between bulls and bears.
- Holding 2,480 could mean consolidation and recovery
- Breaking below 2,400 likely means revisiting the 1,000-level for ETH
Tomorrow focus on BTC at 82,000 and ETH at 2,480, no predictions, just follow the market.Volume contraction with a slow rebound, bulls and bears stuck in a tug-of-war, don't rush to call it a bull market
The market is slightly warming up on low volume; no one dares to call it a bull market. Bears are weak in pushing prices down. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, with no new funds entering. This round of rise is just a correction caused by short covering.
This week's inflation data is the key variable; the market is cautious about heavy bets, funds are tight, and the market mainly oscillates.
$BTC current price 83390: resistance at 84200-84500, short-term support at 82900; only stabilizing above 84500 could signal a trend reversal.
$ETH current price 2546: slightly stronger than BTC, support at 2500, resistance at 2575, just an oversold recovery.
$SOL current price 111: volatile, 110 is a key support; if broken, it may drop to double digits.
Do not chase the rebound on low volume. Without ETF funds returning and before inflation data is released, any surge should be seen as a pullback; the risk of rushing in is very high. #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report?
⚠️Personal review, not investment adviceETH, what do you think?
It's so late at night, yet the drop is still so fast. You see through the darkness but can't see through ETH's market.
I'll start with my conclusion about ETH: ETH, like some coin on the daytime gainers list, has only retraced about a quarter of its rebound; it's still far from a true upward structure.
I've repeatedly emphasized the 2566 resistance level for 3 days, posting no less than 15 times to explain my view on this resistance, but people called me a clown.
What do you mean, "what do you think?"
If I'm right, then I'm awesome; if I'm wrong, of course, I'm an idiot.
My latest view on this ETH drop: first, see if it can stabilize around 2490; if it can't, then fortunately I'll give up watching ETH charts and just rest, waiting for the CPI release's good or bad news to decide how to plan my trades.
I'm really at a loss for words, don't know what else to say.
That's the motivational talk and slogans for now. No more stories. That's all I have to say about ETH!Standard Chartered, a $1T global bank, has officially launched custody services for Ripple's $2.44B $RLUSD stablecoin on the $XRP Ledger.
Institutional-grade custody could help RLUSD win trust with larger players, especially if more banks follow.$STRK 这波空头是真杀疯了！前面提前埋伏的空单，现在浮盈已经突破5倍，开仓均价0.10372，标记价格来到0.09306，距离第三止盈0.0915也就一步之遥！
最关键的是，0.1000整数关口失守后，价格根本没有像样的反弹，15分钟连续阴线下探，MA5、MA10、MA20形成空头排列，MACD死叉后绿柱持续释放，抛压依旧明显。
1小时同样弱势，价格跌破三条均线，MACD双线向下发散。4小时更值得注意，前面0.1268冲高回落后，KDJ持续下行，MACD也出现死叉，说明这轮回调已经从短线扩散到更大周期。
不过目前15分钟和1小时KDJ均进入超卖区域，继续追空容易吃反抽。
现在距离第三止盈只差临门一脚！ 已经拿到的利润可以先锁定大部分，剩余底仓继续观察0.0915，若进一步跌破0.0918低点，后续有机会测试0.0897附近。
这一轮从提前埋伏到连续止盈，节奏基本踩准，剩下就看空头还能走多远！$BTC $SNDK #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验