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After a rapid decline, ETH has seen a strong short-term rebound and is now trying to reclaim some of the previously lost space. However, the rebound has not continued to expand. After rebounding from $2473 to $2554, it encountered resistance and has now fallen back to around $2536, with bulls and bears still vying for control. 🔍 **Short-term Market Analysis** Currently, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are concentrated in the $2510–$2520 range and are gradually diverging upward, with prices regaining the short-term moving average, indicating signs of short-term stabilization. 📌 **Key price levels to watch:** - **First support: $2512** — The 1-hour Supertrend trendline is an important reference for judging whether the short-term rebound can continue. - **Key Support: $2504** — If this level holds, there is still a chance for further short-term oscillation and recovery. - **Resistance Above: $2541** — Short-term resistance near the current price; effective breakout is needed to open further upside. - **Strong Breakout Level: $2554** — Previous rebound high; if it breaks through with increased volume and holds firm, it will be more favorable for the market to continue moving upward. 🎯 **Trading Strategy** Currently, ETH is trading near $2536; blindly chasing high prices just because of a short-term rebound is not recommended. Existing positions can focus on the support areas of $2512 and $2504. Under the premise that support is effective,Real trading day 182, today I traded the altcoin $RVN, which was a short position following the trend.
This $RVN altcoin trade had a maximum floating profit of about 15 points, but since I planned to hold it longer, I set a stop loss and then left it alone.
My entry price was 0.001846; this level had been declining for a long time, and the short-term cycle was consolidating, so I shorted.
The stop loss was also set at a resistance level, but unfortunately it was triggered. Now $RVN has dropped again after hitting the stop loss; just a bit of bad luck.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Bitcoin and Ethereum do not necessarily follow the same market logic every time.
If BTC continues to rise while ETH shows weakness, it indicates that market funds may still be more inclined towards Bitcoin.
However, if both BTC and ETH rise simultaneously, and ETH's gains begin to surpass BTC's, the signal released is different. This may mean that the market's risk appetite is expanding, and funds are no longer focused solely on Bitcoin but are starting to spread to Ethereum and other mainstream assets.
Of course, the performance of just one trading session is not enough to confirm that a trend has formed. But this change is worth continuous observation and should not be easily ignored.
What truly matters is not just whether BTC and ETH are rising, but which one is rising stronger and what changes are occurring in fund preferences. 10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's plan is very clear: focus on shorting after Monday's rally; if there's no volume to reclaim, don't chase longs.
$BTC is currently around 83,800, having hovered near 83,000 over the weekend, then pulled up to 84,200 during the Asian session. But it didn't even touch 86,000's wick; funding rates are slowly falling, and longs are chasing again. In this kind of market, if no one picks up during the US session, a pullback is likely.
$ETH is around 2,540, following the same rhythm as BTC. It rebounded from 2,490 over the weekend to 2,555, but couldn't hold 2,580 either.
This week's variable is Wednesday's CPI. The minutes already indicated another rate hike is appropriate this year, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI is hot, US Treasury yields will rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even 79,000 at any time.
Strategy:
BTC: Short in the 84,500-86,000 range, target 80,400-79,000
ETH: Short in the 2,560-2,620 range, target 2,450-2,400
If BTC breaks above 86,000 with volume, invalidate shorts immediately; don't stubbornly hold.
Trading isn't about guessing ups or downs; it's about planning what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and recognizing mistakes. Think clearly before acting.
What do you think will happen after the CPI release? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly reclaim 86,000?Institutions are buying aggressively, but the price just won't rise.
Last week, Strive spent $169 million to buy 2,000 $BTC at an average price of $84,422, bringing their total holdings to 29,462 coins. Morgan Stanley's total holdings rose to 10,600 coins. Whales increased their holdings by about 15,000 $BTC within 72 hours, all holding onto their chips.
But the price just isn't going up.
⭕️ The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.3%, which naturally disadvantages cash-flow-free assets like BTC.
⭕️ ETFs are withdrawing. This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of $678.9 million.
⭕️ Hedging is offsetting buying pressure. While institutions buy spot, futures are being hedged. Spot selling pressure and futures hedging are simultaneously consuming buying power.
So BTC is stuck in a tug-of-war around $83,000.
Institutions are indeed buying, and selling pressure is also real.
Next, we will watch the CPI on October 14 and see if ETF fund flows can turn positive again.
#InstitutionsKeepBuildingPositions, WhyIsBTCStillUnderPressure?
#CPIandPPIUpcoming, InterestRateHikeExpectationsFaceTest I'm serious about writing posts. Setting off again today.
Still starting with BTC. BTC is like a box of chocolates; before opening, you don't know its shape. When opened, the wonderful patterns and overflowing aroma instantly intoxicate you, but initially, it tastes bitter and sour. Only by slowly savoring it does that rich sweetness truly belong to me.
BTC's price yesterday started around 82900, first hovering around 83000 for 20 hours, then in the last 4 hours before the day ended, it directly surged to around 83900. Up to now, it remains at this golden price. It sweetened my whole night. Looking ahead, I expect it to fluctuate around 83500, preferably without rising too much. The reason will be explained later.
The biggest news catalyst for last night's rise was probably Trump's announcement of the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement. This directly determines energy prices and makes the subsequent CPI data look better. Would you say that's important?
I entered my BTC long position at 82900, with the initial target set near the resistance level at 82850 for profit-taking. I executed this and repeatedly emphasized it in the post. I've attached the chart for everyone to reference the thought process.
From BTC entry to exit, I believe the real importance is not how much we earned on this trade, but whether we made a logical plan and had the internal discipline to execute it accordingly. At seven in the morning, the outside was already completely bright. The footsteps of morning runners came from downstairs, and the smell of cooking oil from the breakfast stall drifted into the room. This was a new day full of hope for others, but I had already stayed up several nights in a row. The room was dead silent; I curled up in front of the computer, staring at the string of red and green flashing numbers, like watching fireworks that had nothing to do with me. #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
$GRASS: [Bleeding frenzy, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.087000.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,507.77U, ROI 58.55%.
Grass earned over 1500U, enough to have a comprehensive critical illness screening at a top private hospital. But looking at this 1500+ U, I can't even shed a tear. It rose nearly 30% in 24 hours, on-chain whales are still rushing in, and 8 hours ago someone spent 1.7 million U to buy 780,000 tokens. But what about my position? I don't even have the courage to add to it. It's called "Grass," and I am like a blade of grass. Wherever the wind blows, I fall. I dare not spend the money I earned, dare not admit the losses, stay up late until my heart races, and still pretend I am "investing," "changing my fate."
$BTC: [Cold trump card, full of wounds]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,852.67.
Main position, unrealized profit 662.84U, ROI 46.78%.
Bitcoin is as steady as Mount Tai, with a defense line far below at 63,538; it is the strongest fortress in the account. But no matter how steady it is, it can't steady my insomnia at 4 a.m. The person locked inside the fortress is already full of wounds.
$ETH: [Faith buried, devastated]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,552.22.
Main position, unrealized profit 310.57U, ROI 48.66%.
Ethereum earned over 300U. It used to be my faith in this market; I thought it could take me away from mediocrity and achieve freedom. But the young person who once believed "Ethereum will change the world" has been worn down bit by bit through countless sleepless nights.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report?
The account is in the red, but the person is gray.
I calculated that these three positions together have an unrealized profit of over 2,000U. But when I stare at GRASS's straight line surging upward, my hands tremble and my heart is empty. I know these numbers can disappear at any time. Just one needle, one injection, one sudden plunge, and they will vanish as if they never existed. And I will, like countless nights before, continue to sit in front of the screen, waiting for it to come back.
I pushed my chair back and stood up. My legs were numb, my eyes sore, and my stomach empty and uneasy. Those morning runners outside will finish running and go to work, meet friends, or have a warm breakfast. But I don't even have the strength to open the curtains.
I stared at the screen for a long time, then clicked the mouse once. I neither closed my position nor added to it. I just closed the computer. Then I picked up my phone and sent a message to a friend I hadn't contacted for a long time: "How have you been lately?" After sending it, I stood up, walked to the window, and pulled open the curtains.
The sunlight was dazzling. I squinted and stood there for a long time.
An unrealized profit of 2,000U can't buy back the life I burned away. No matter how steady Bitcoin is, it can't steady my broken life. The frenzy of Grass can't buy back my roots. No trades today. Today, I will sleep first. Today, I will just be a person.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681.1 million, and Solana ETFs also experienced an outflow of $24.8 million.
However, due to the significant difference in the overall scale of the two types of ETFs, simply comparing the outflow amounts does not directly indicate which side is under greater financial pressure.
What truly deserves attention next is when the funds will flow back and whether the pace of the return is consistent.
If BTC and SOL both see a capital rebound simultaneously, it suggests that market demand may be recovering overall; but if Bitcoin recovers inflows first while Solana continues to experience outflows, it may reflect that funds still prefer to allocate to BTC.
The data on fund outflows is only about the past; the subsequent direction of funds is the key. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize first and whether Solana can catch up are changes worth continuous observation. 昨晚十一点多，我刷到两条消息，看完之后把电脑关了，安心睡觉。 第一条：特朗普宣布俄乌达成能源停火协议，即刻生效，双方不得破坏对方能源基础设施。 第二条：美国财长贝森特说，对伊朗采取"绝对孤立行动"，伊朗已经失去85%到90%的导弹和无人机制造能力，汽油排队时间3到4小时。特朗普预计中期选举前不会发生任何军事冲突。 很多人看到这两条消息，第一反应是"哦，地缘缓和了，利好风险资产"。但我觉得大多数人没意识到这两条消息真正的分量——它们不是简单的"利好"，而是把这轮BTC暴跌的源头，从根上拆了。 我给你捋一下这轮暴跌是怎么来的。 时间倒回到一周前。伊朗局势突然紧张，美军向中东增兵，市场开始定价"美国要打伊朗"。一旦打伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡就可能被封锁，全球20%的石油运输要经过那里。布油直接从95冲到105，创了新高。 油价一涨，通胀预期就起来了。美联储9月刚加了25个基点，新主席Warsh鹰派首秀，市场本来就在担心加息。油价破105之后，10月加息的概率一度冲到60%以上。美债收益率开始飙升，10年期从5.3%一路冲到5.73%，创了2007年以来的新高。30年期破了5.5%。 美债收益率飙升Someone sold 410 BTC and converted it all into ETH
He sold 410 BTC on Hyp, worth $34.16 million. Then he immediately bought 14,341 ETH on DEX, worth $36.14 million.
The money from selling BTC was almost entirely poured into ETH.
This is not an ordinary portfolio shift; it’s a directional bet.
By selling BTC to buy ETH, he is essentially betting that ETH will outperform BTC going forward. Currently, the ETH/BTC rate is around 0.03, at a historical low range, and he is betting this rate will rebound.
Recently, BTC dropped from 86,000, and ETH also fell, but ETH’s decline was relatively smaller. Some are betting ETH will stabilize before BTC, while others think this is just a normal rotation after BTC’s heavy drop.
Whether he bet correctly or not, only time will tell. But the portfolio shift of 410 BTC at least shows he believes ETH offers better value than BTC right now.
What do you think? Can ETH outperform BTC this time? Let’s discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data compilation and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $GRASS This position feels like a good opportunity to lightly short, current price 0.85, 24h +25%. Just broke through the previous high of 0.819, the only resistance above is 0.90. There's some short-term pumping, waiting for a pullback to 0.84~0.85. If it breaks below 0.83, this phase is over.10:30 AM, the sunlight outside the window is brilliant, and the plaza in the community carries the sun-dried scent of the neighbor auntie's bedding. From downstairs, the faint sound of office workers making business calls can be heard. This is the most vibrant moment in the entire world. Meanwhile, I have drawn the heavy blackout curtains in my room, and the air is so stale it turns sour.
$DOGE: [Gorgeous numbers, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.086994.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,632.43U, ROI 63.22%.
The dog really went crazy, earning over 1600U. I could have used this money to buy my favorite sneakers or enjoy a top-tier buffet.
$BTC: [Cold armor, imprisoning cage]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,919.6.
Main position, unrealized profit 736.79U, ROI 51.86%.
The big coin’s defense line is far at 62,894, perfectly secure. It is the armor of my account but the cage of my real life.
$ETH: [Martyrdom faith, scarred and battered]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,553.35.
Main position, unrealized profit 395.16U, ROI 61.51%.
Ether earned nearly 400U. Once, it was my faith, the light I thought could lead me out of mediocrity.
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#Gold ETF sets record inflows, high interest rates still suppress gold prices Beware of dumping after the pump! Sonic coin at 0.06 is already a high level! $S Sonic token surged from $0.037 to above $0.06, an increase of over 60%, but this price has no fundamental support at all. Look at the real on-chain data. Sonic's total daily on-chain fee income is only about $75, with an annualized income of about $27,000, while the token's market cap is as high as $160 million. To support the current valuation, on-chain income needs to grow 200 to 350 times. This is not just an overvaluation; it's an absurd valuation. TVL tells the story even more clearly. Sonic's total locked value plummeted from the peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025 to about $33.85 million currently, a drop of over 97%. When a chain's locked capital is almost zero, it means users and funds are voting with their feet. The team is also disintegrating. In June 2026, three founding directors, including Andre Cronje, simultaneously resigned from the Sonic Labs board. In his resignation statement, Cronje clearly distanced himself, stating he was never involved in token economics, migration, or airdrop decisions, and that his strategic focus has shifted to the new project Flying Tulip. The most alarming is the capital flow. During this recent pump, real-time data shows about 9.36 million S tokens have been sold, indicating clear selling pressure near resistance levels. Who is pumping, who is selling—the answer is obvious. Market maker Wintermute, after ending cooperation, sold about$TRX TRX: 0.33 TRON, the least flashy yet the most stable?
TRX is at $0.3305 today, down 0.08% in 24h, down 1.55% in 7 days — almost no drop in the entire market. This is TRX's temperament: not sexy, no big hits, but small drawdowns.
TRON's logic is very straightforward: USDT transfers, Southeast Asia/Latin America payments, low-fee transfers, stablecoin settlement network. Today USDT still has a market cap of 184B and a daily volume of 36B; TRON is one of the old pipelines for stablecoin liquidity.
Price zones:
0.32–0.33: long-term sideways range
0.35–0.38: previous highs
Below 0.30: stablecoin demand retreats
TRX is not for getting rich quick, but to ensure your "altcoin holdings don't all die."
Today fear and greed index is 57, TRX barely moves. When BTC falls, it falls a little; when BTC rises, it rises a little. Many find it boring, but assets that survive from 2022 to 2026 are rare; many "high-performance new chains" didn't make it. #CPI and PPI announcements coming, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Institutions keep positioning, why does BTC remain under pressure? $TRX BTC is leaning towards a rebound this week, focusing on the dual catalysts of US-Russia energy trades and CPI
Currently, BTC's trend this week is optimistic, with a target first around $87,000. If it can break through, then attention shifts to $90,000.
One notable change to watch is the news related to US-Russia energy trades and the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. If energy supply expectations improve and oil price pressure eases, market concerns about inflation rebound may cool down. This is favorable for the sentiment recovery of risk assets.
Looking at BTC itself.
After the last round of decline, the price has climbed back above $82,000 and rebounded to around $83,000. I tend to interpret the current trend as a recovery after the drop, rather than directly judging that a new round of decline has started.
The US CPI released this Wednesday may become a catalyst for the market to further choose its direction. If BTC can hold above $82,000 and there is no obvious reversal in energy news, then the probability of continued upward recovery this week is more worth attention.
This week's outlook: short-term bullish, first target $87,000, then $90,000; if $82,000 is effectively broken down, this judgment needs to be reassessed.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#Russia relaxes diesel exports, Hormuz risk still supports oil prices During the dot-com bubble, Amazon's stock price shrank by 95%, just one step away from bankruptcy.
Now, its market value has surpassed $2.7 trillion.When the coin price drops, the most common phrase that pops up is: buy a little more to lower the cost.
Old Wang thinks that before placing an order, you should first ask yourself: if I don't own a single coin right now, would I still want to buy it?
If the answer is just "I've already lost money and feel reluctant to give up," then the reason for adding to the position needs to be reconsidered.
Before adding to your position, look at three things:
① Does the original reason for buying still hold?
② After increasing the position, will this coin's proportion of the total funds be too high?
③ If the price keeps falling, will the arrangement of the remaining funds be affected?
Lowering the cost means more money invested, but the risk doesn't necessarily decrease.
Adding to your position requires a new judgment; you can't rely solely on old reluctance.#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH $SOL
问：现在市场到底算不算反转？
答：还不算。更准确地说，这是急跌后的修复行情进入整理确认阶段。资金情绪比前一阵好，愿意试错，但趋势反转需要更多证据。现在只能定义为“回暖”，不是“换挡”。
问：BTC的关键在哪？
答：九万。这个整数位上方并不轻松，前期被套的人和这轮抢反弹的人都会在那里考虑兑现。因此，价格第一次靠近未必能顺利通过。真正的信号是放量突破后，还能连续收在九万之上；若做不到，就仍按超跌修复看待，后面要留意85000附近有没有承接。
问：ETH和SOL呢？
答：ETH从2600回到2780，短线重心确实上移，但之前跌破的重要区间没有完全收复，所以反转条件不够。短线用2880和2680当标尺：2880过不去，偏弱震荡；2680失守，2600可能再被测试
问：那操作上怎么办
答：BTC不抢跑，等站稳90000后再考虑；ETH不预设方向，盯2880和2680的反应；SOL暂时观望。中期结构没破坏前，可以保留偏多预期，但看多不等于每根阳线都追。
一句话总结：先确认，再跟随；关键位不破，不急着把反弹当反转。Colend (Core chain lending protocol) current status 1. The contract has not been shut down, on-chain contracts still exist, and the frontend web can still be opened, but the business has basically "essentially stalled," with activity almost zero. - March 2026: The CORE token price crash triggered a large-scale chain liquidation, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement stated that the protocol code itself was not hacked and caused by market leverage liquidation, with no bad debts, liquidity was severely destroyed. - Currently, TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; Stablecoin and BTC liquidity are almost exhausted. - Almost no assets can be lent: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no usable liquidity; Ordinary users can only make deposits, and lending functions are basically unavailable. 2. CLND token situation - CLND tokens are still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped significantly from its peak. - Colend's official social media update frequency has greatly decreased, and large-scale incentive activities are no longer conducted. 3. Key reminder for existing users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets, but you must manually redeem and withdraw them from the app; Do not continue to deposit new funds in the contract. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events; the collateral is highly volatile CORE, and leverage risk is extremely high. Brief summary ✅: The contract technology has neither run nor shut down; it remains accessible and can be withdrawn ❌The "$S Sonic (S)" "blank trap" operation has left clear on-chain traces.
A public chain with a daily fee income of only $75 had its token market value once pushed up to $1.03, with a market cap exceeding $1 billion. This valuation itself was a carefully designed trap—pulling the price to a high level through narrative and incentives without any real revenue support.
What followed played out according to the standard script. TVL plummeted from $1.14 billion to $20 million, evaporating 98%. Three founding directors, including the most well-known Andre Cronje, resigned simultaneously on June 19, 2026. In his resignation statement, Cronje deliberately distanced himself, stating he "never" participated in token economics, migration, or airdrop decisions. Market maker Wintermute sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens within 24 hours after the cooperation ended.
The most ironic part is that Sonic locked 75% of the airdropped tokens in NFTs for 270 days, with early redemption requiring a burn penalty of up to 66%. This is not an airdrop; it locks users' assets in a downward channel, ensuring the project team has enough time to complete the sell-off.
When a chain's core builders collectively leave, market makers withdraw, TVL drops to zero, and daily income is only $75, its only "use" left is to complete the final sell-off before going to zero.$STRK
STRK is still surging, but does the cooling off in gains signal the end of the trend?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.10183—0.12687 USDT, change +16.25%, trading volume approximately 74.35 million USDT.
The window's return has slowed compared to yesterday, but the observation range has shifted upward. Momentum cooling and price range increase can occur simultaneously. Strength should not be judged solely by percentage, nor should rising prices be taken as proof that application revenue has been realized.
If the 0.12687 peak fails and subsequent lows continue to decline, be cautious of increased supply; if the pullback maintains the new range with genuine demand following, then the upward continuation is reinforced. Cooling off itself is not evidence of a reversal.#BTC Highlights:
Retracement realized, judgment was correct. Entered at 60,000, exited at 88,000, shorted at 86,200, covered and added to short at 80,600.
Next target is 94,000.
The key is whether 86K can turn into support. Sei is a high-performance L1 public chain focused on trading, positioned specifically for order book DEXs, contract trading, and high-frequency on-chain trading, directly competing with Sui, Aptos, and Solana. ✅ Highlights (bullish logic) 1. Differentiated positioning: Not an all-powerful public chain, focusing on on-chain trading. Native parallel execution and fast endgame—originally Twin-Turbo consensus, now fully pushing for a major upgrade of Sei Giga, targeting 200,000 TPS and 250ms endgame, and adding a Sedna privacy transaction layer to resist MEV and attract institutional-level on-chain transaction demand. 2. Architecture Transformation (SIP-3): Shifting from Cosmos SDK to a pure EVM chain, disabling CosmWasm and shutting down IBC cross-chain. Advantages: Ethereum developers can migrate directly, Solidity contracts can be deployed with one click, and the development threshold is low; Disadvantages: Completely detached from the Cosmos ecosystem, losing the original IBC assets and Cosmos community foundation. 3. Clear ecosystem direction: Focus on order book DEX, perpetual contracts, RWA, prediction markets (previously cooperated with Kalshi), oracles like Chainlink and Pyth have already been integrated, suitable for latency-sensitive trading DeFi. 4. Strong institutional financing background Early funding lineup is good; the track narrative is easily hyped by capital during bull markets, but very flexible when crypto is strong. ⚠️ Core risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects).🚨 Contract funds are simultaneously flowing back and retreating, who is secretly positioning?
Let me tell you, the capital flow of the four major mainstream coins has already shown obvious divergence!
🔴 $BTC: 24-hour net inflow +$604 million, but net outflow of -$109 million in the last hour, and a net outflow of -$4.731 billion in the last 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate repeatedly, with considerable medium- to long-term pressure.
🔴 $ETH: 24-hour net inflow +$71.8095 million, inflow of +$62.144 million in the last 2 hours, but net outflow of -$5.367 billion in the last 30 days. Some short-term replenishment, but this does not mean the trend has reversed.
🟠 $SOL: 24-hour net inflow +$48.216 million, net outflow of -$1.994 billion in the last 30 days, short-term warming, but long-term pressure remains.
🟢 $ZEC: 24-hour net inflow +$29.5757 million, net inflow of +$94.1248 million in the last 30 days, the only one among the four coins to maintain net inflow over the past 30 days, showing relatively strong capital performance.
My view is clear: short-term inflow does not equal the return of a bull market. Medium- to long-term capital pressure remains for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL; $ZEC is relatively resistant to decline, but don’t blindly chase highs.
A reminder: contract net inflow does not equal real buying pressure; direction must be judged in combination with price and open interest.
Do you think this is a main force shakeout or the last bull trap before a rebound? See you in the comments!10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, no chasing longs unless there's a volume-backed recovery.
$BTC is currently around 83,800. It consolidated near 83,000 over the weekend for two days, then the Asian session directly pushed it to 84,200. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 86,000 level where not even the wick was touched, funding rates are falling slowly, and longs are still chasing. In this situation, if no one picks up during the US session, a pullback is very likely.
$ETH is now around 2,540, moving in sync with BTC. It bounced from 2,490 to 2,555 over the weekend, but 2,580 was also not held.
The real variable this week is Wednesday's CPI. The minutes already indicated another rate hike this year is appropriate, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI comes in hot again, US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even see 79,000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 84,500-86,000, target around 80,400-79,000.
ETH: Short between 2,560-2,620, target around 2,450-2,400.
If BTC recovers 86,000 with volume, the short position is invalidated immediately; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
Trading is never about guessing the outcome but about thinking through three scenarios in advance: what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and where to admit being wrong if the view is incorrect.
What do you think after Wednesday's CPI release? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly recover 86,000? Core 的核心叙事：BTCFi（比特币DeFi）赛道，独特的 Satoshi Plus 共识，把比特币算力+PoS一起用来保护网络，主打让闲置BTC做质押生息，代币CORE上限21亿枚（对标BTC的2100万） 。 ✅ 看多的逻辑（优势） 1. 赛道叙事稀缺 BTCFi是这几年币圈主线之一，很多比特币矿工、BTC大户对这个方向有兴趣；它的双质押机制：质押CORE可以拿到更高的BTC质押收益，理论上会持续产生对CORE的需求。官方2026路线图重点是生态收益回购CORE，不再单纯靠通胀燃烧，试图打造收入支撑的代币模型 。 2. EVM兼容，上手门槛低 以太坊开发者可以直接部署合约，生态方向集中在BTC借贷、BTC流动质押、RWA、支付（SatPay），定位就是比特币的智能合约链。 3. 矿工社区基础 早期吸引了不少BTC矿工参与共识，这是别的BTCFi项目（Babylon、Stacks）没有的差异化；有不少托管、机构服务商接入做BTC质押方案 。 ⚠️ 非常硬的风险（也是制约前景最大的地方，你之前关心的点） 1. 验证节点去中心化争议 + 官方节点退出事件 之前出现过官Nonfarm payroll storm approaching, rate cut expectations face a "life-or-death trial"
🔥The global market holds its breath tonight: The US September nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, followed closely by the unemployment rate, both highly nerve-wracking. This heavyweight report will directly "judge" the market's bets on the Fed's rate cut path within the year.
📊Current expectations: about 150,000 new nonfarm jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The market is more focused on the stickiness of average hourly earnings; whether the cooling of the labor force is real and sustained is tonight's biggest suspense.
⚡Policy background: The Fed has already started the rate cut cycle in September. The market currently bets on a high probability of further cuts in November, but under the "soft landing" narrative, if the data is abnormally strong, rate cut expectations may be reassessed, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to rebound strongly.
📉Clear impact on risk assets: Data beats expectations → rate cut expectations cool down → liquidity tightens → risk assets come under pressure; the opposite boosts the market. BTC is currently oscillating at a high level; volatility will inevitably increase around the data release, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
👀Key observation points: Not only watch the number of new jobs but also closely monitor the month-on-month hourly earnings and unemployment rate. This week's data will decide whether the macro "ceiling" will open further or remain temporarily sealed. Fasten your seatbelts! $S Sonic (S) On-Chain Evidence of Internal Emptiness
A public chain with a market cap of about $160 million has a daily fee income of only $75. This is not a joke; these are the real data of Sonic on DefiLlama. The annualized income is about $27,375. To support the current valuation, on-chain revenue needs to grow 200 to 350 times.
Looking at the total value locked (TVL), Sonic's TVL plummeted from a peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025 to about $20 million, a 98% evaporation. A network’s locked capital is almost zero, meaning users are voting with their feet and no longer trust putting funds on this chain.
The team is also disintegrating. On June 19, 2026, three founding directors—Andre Cronje, Michael Kong, and David Richardson—simultaneously resigned from the Sonic Labs board. In his resignation statement, Cronje explicitly distanced himself, stating he was never responsible for tokenomics, migration, or airdrop decisions. Before this, his focus had already shifted to a new project, Flying Tulip, which raised $200 million with a valuation of $1 billion.
Market makers are also withdrawing. Sonic ended its exclusive five-year partnership with Wintermute, which subsequently sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens.
A new CEO canceled all manual token minting and commissioned a third party to audit the token supply. This action itself indicates the transparency of the supply is... To start with the conclusion: $W rose 48% in 24 hours, but the real story today is the 4H candle at 8 AM — $W surged 19% in a single candle, with volume 12 times the average of the past 8 candles.
From 0.022 to 0.026, one candle pushed it straight up.
This isn’t just an emotional peak; it’s a structural breakout driven by large capital entering intensively in a short time.
Do you think 0.026 can hold? $W ETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, distinct from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications within the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets across dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold funds from tens of thousands of retail users (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many independent “people” are whales. A brief comparison with the BTC standard you just asked about: - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,#Minimalist Chan Theory $BTC $ETH
Although the price points arrive late, they do arrive. As I mentioned earlier, BTC reached around 8.4, and ETH reached around 2570. The initial rebound of ETH was relatively weak and did not move as fast as BTC. From the perspective of Chan Theory, when BTC's rebound was strong before, the 4-hour MACD had a golden cross below zero, but ETH had not yet formed a golden cross at that time.
The reason I changed my name to "Unity of Knowledge and Action" is because I often fail to achieve it myself. This time is no different. Although the market was weak and the trend slow over the weekend, the 5-minute consolidation zone upgraded. Even though I clearly knew the previous high of 8.35 would be broken, I still did not close my previous laddered short positions. After adding positions, the previous short positions cost BTC 8.3×2 and ETH 2502×40. After adding positions at the high point early this morning, my current cost is BTC 8.33×3 and ETH 2516×60. I am holding the full short position without moving it. Regardless of whether the price will rise further, it will eventually pull back. I will observe the strength of the pullback and then close the short positions.
For conservative operation to avoid missing out, yesterday, knowing a new high would be made, I should have closed half of the laddered short positions—that is, closed one BTC and 20 ETH—and then added back later. This would have resulted in a much better cost basis. At the same time, I am working hard to transition from a short-term trader to a trend trader and cannot be overly concerned with price points, or I will miss big moves, just like a few days ago when I kept waiting for a break of 8.74 and did not add short positions.
Trading is a practice of cultivation; the difficulty lies not in the technique but in the human heart.#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Q: ETFs are still being subscribed to, so why isn't the candlestick chart responding?
A: Because ETFs act more like "allocation vehicles" rather than "price-pumping vehicles." They can absorb some spot holdings but cannot reclaim marginal pricing power. When rate hike expectations turn hawkish, institutions first reduce high-volatility positions, so net inflows can only buffer the impact.
Q: Then who is actually selling off?
A: It's not a single major player but more like a combined force of three factors. First, the latest FOMC minutes are hawkish, the door to further tightening rates remains open; second, long-term US Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year hitting 5.36%, the highest since 2002, making risk-free returns attractive.
Q: What is the current status of BTC and ETH?
A: BTC is around 82,000, retreating about 2% in 24 hours, with the price center continuing to shift downward. ETH is more volatile; during bearish waves, it falls harder, dropping from 2700 to 2420, and a rebound to around 2480 is just a slight breather.
Q: Why are tokens like SOL more hurt?
A: They rely on new capital inflows and hot narratives. After liquidity is drained by the bond market, public chain tokens driven by sentiment and incremental buying are the first to run out of fuel; once the narrative cools, prices lose support.
Q: Is it time to bottom-fish now?
A: Don't rush. ETF inflows can't support the whole market, indicating selling pressure comes from broader macro cross-asset reallocations. Wait for volatility to subside and sentiment to stop panicking before considering phased entries. Holding positions and cash now is more important than trying to guess the bottom.
$BTC This is not a rebound; it's like performing CPR on my short account, right? During the repeated intraday fluctuations, $QUANT almost caught a breath every time it surged, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was obvious. I saw it couldn't break through around 242.8, judging it as a strong bull trap, so my bearish view at the time was slightly bearish.
Later, the market gave the answer: the price slid from 242.8 down to 237.5, shorts gained +111.2%, feeling good, brothers. This profit was satisfying, the timing was just right.
Close 80% of the position first, protect the remaining 20% at cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profits run, and if it rebounds, don't give the profits back.
The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for. Risk control done in advance is called rationality; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
For friends who haven't entered, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing shorts easily gets caught by rebounds. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ZEC $SOL To start with the conclusion: $W rose 48% in 24 hours, but the real story today is the 4H candle at 8 AM — $W surged 19% in a single candle, with volume 12 times the average of the past 8 candles.
From 0.022 to 0.026, one candle pushed it straight up.
This isn’t just an emotional peak; it’s a structural breakout driven by large capital entering intensively in a short time.
Do you think 0.026 can hold? $W A chain can shut down just like that, which is quite frustrating no matter who it happens to.
The Sui Foundation invested 30 million in DATA Network, with the condition that the entire independent DATA chain be retired and the tokens migrated 1:1 to run on Sui.
To put it bluntly, this is not an investment, it's an acquisition.
DATA goes from having its own territory to becoming an application within the Sui ecosystem.
From the project team's perspective, 30 million is indeed a lot, but the cost is losing their own chain, their own narrative, and their own valuation logic.
What really matters isn't the 30 million, but the 250 million contribution records and the daily average of 3 million receipts.
The Trace application is genuinely being used.
So my judgment is: DATA isn't dead, it just changed its way of living, from "I want to build a chain" to "I'm working on Sui."
Looking ahead, more and more small chains will be absorbed by larger ecosystems, and the narrative of independent chains can basically be considered doomed in advance.
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ $DATA $BTC Can hardware wallets also be tampered with? This security issue is more serious than imagined!
Ledger has confirmed that at least one affected user's device contained an unauthorized hardware implant. Media reports indicate that the problem is suspected to be related to the supply chain of the dealer CryptoBilis. Attackers may have used the implanted circuit to obtain the mnemonic phrase displayed during device initialization. The estimated amount stolen on-chain has exceeded 86 million USD, but the total loss has not yet been finally confirmed.
The most frightening part of this incident is that many people think buying a hardware wallet means everything is safe, but they overlook the purchase channel and whether the device has been tampered with. Cold wallets can reduce some risks but cannot solve all security issues for you.
Do you think you would still dare to buy hardware wallets through third-party dealers in the future? $ETH The biggest positive factor right now is:
Interest rate hikes, the US-Iran war, US debt out of control, Saudi Arabia and Yemen also fighting, with so many negative news, the US stock market can still hold up, and the crypto pullback is relatively weak.
When negative factors can't shake it, that's a positive for $BTC $ETH #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? #Russia-Ukraine May Reach "Energy Ceasefire" Agreement, Progress Pending Confirmation
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire sounds like good news, but all the details are question marks.
On October 11, Trump announced that both sides agreed to stop attacking energy facilities, effective immediately, but did not disclose the specific terms of the agreement. Zelensky said he supports it, provided Russia also complies, and is still waiting for the U.S. side to provide specific arrangements. Russia has not officially confirmed it yet. Adding insult to injury, the Ukrainian side said that after Trump's ceasefire announcement, Russia still launched attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities.
Meanwhile, the Middle East remains unsettled. The Houthi forces claimed an attack on a Saudi airport, and oil tankers were attacked again in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Two energy routes are simultaneously under threat.
The market reaction was straightforward. Brent and WTI both fell more than 1.6% because the ceasefire expectation is lowering the risk premium. But this drop is not large, indicating the market is not fully convinced. The agreement has not been finalized, both sides are still blaming each other, and a fallout could happen at any time.
For BTC, this is a marginal short-term positive. Oil price retreat eases inflation expectations, reducing the urgency for Federal Reserve rate hikes slightly. But don't celebrate too early; as long as the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is not in black and white, and Middle East shipping risks remain unresolved, oil prices could rebound at any time. BTC is currently fluctuating around 83,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500, and support between 81,500 and 82,000. The direction is still undecided.
In terms of trading, don't bet on the ceasefire outcome. Wait for the agreement to be officially finalized or for oil prices to show a clear trend before considering entry. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Ledger Investigation New Developments: Theft Temporarily Concentrated in a Single Channel
The boss has something to say
New developments in the Ledger investigation have emerged. Theft cases are concentrated at the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis; no breaches have been found in the official direct sales channels. However, a European user reported suspicious components in devices purchased from a local authorized distributor.
I believe the most dangerous aspect of hardware wallets is not the device itself, but the channel. Where you buy it from is more important than the brand. A Ledger device with implanted hardware could leak the mnemonic phrase during initialization. Third-party estimates put losses at over $86 million, and that's only the known amount.
Therefore, when buying a hardware wallet, you must trust the official channels. Upon receipt, check if the packaging is intact, and during initialization verify that the mnemonic phrase is generated by the device itself, not pre-set. If you have already purchased one and the source is questionable, quickly migrate your assets to a new wallet.
I still hold long BTC at 83000 and short at 86500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before the CPI release. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that position first.
The hardware wallet incident reminds us that the security of on-chain assets ultimately depends on ourselves. Keeping private keys secret is stronger than anything else. Always set stop losses on your trades; don’t hold through losses. $BTC $ETH $STRK
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.The Fear and Greed Index jumped to 69 today,
Greedy state, up 8 points from yesterday.
Interestingly, market sentiment is heating up,
but many people's positions haven't caught up yet,
some are selling BTC to buy ETH,
exchanging 410 BTC for over 14,000 ETH.
Funds are rotating, not retreating.
$BTC
$ETH
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? $BTC's major move went towards the stronger range of 82000-84000 mentioned for the weekend, but currently macro pressure is weighing down, so the rebound strength may be limited. Be cautious of the risk of price encountering resistance above and falling back; around 84000, consider light short positions.
Macro headwinds include interest rate hikes and AI capital competition. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and may hike again before year-end. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure is pushing up long-term rates, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5.28%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.
Regulation and security: The EU is reviewing MiCA and considering requiring non-custodial wallet developers to obtain certification, adding compliance uncertainty. Additionally, Ledger hardware wallets suffered a supply chain attack, losing about $86 million to $93 million, which is a short-term negative for market sentiment.
Capital flow: ETFs continue to see outflows. In the first 7 trading days of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of $386.3 million, and capital inflow has not yet been confirmed.
$ETH short-term resistance is focused on the 2580-2600 area. If this resistance cannot be broken and held, I personally think it is possible to try shorting. If 2470 does not break down, this rebound can be considered strong—a deep V-shaped big rebound.
The above are personal views for reference only Currently focusing on two hot coins: $STRK and $MAGIC, both have been rallying fiercely recently. STRK just upgraded its mainnet and introduced incentives, so short-term sentiment is quite heated; MAGIC has been even more volatile these days, with a 24-hour turnover rate soaring above 600%, a typical target for speculative traders.
Personally, I feel that the explosive rally type like MAGIC is more suitable for shorting; it rises sharply but also falls hard, though the volatility is huge, so position size must be well controlled. STRK has fundamental support, so if shorting, you need to wait until it shows signs of weakening after a rally.
Are there any others also watching these two? Let's discuss in the comments which is more suitable for shorting and share ideas. #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? $BTC is back near $83.7K, but one green day doesn't settle the bigger question
The rejection near $87K put sellers back in focus. Now I'm watching whether BTC can hold the $82K area or lose it on another attempt lower
If support breaks, $79K is the first downside level I'd watch, followed by $73K if selling pressure accelerates. A deeper move toward $65K would need further confirmation
On the other side, reclaiming $85K–$87K would weaken the bearish case
I wouldn't call $53K inevitableThe overnight movement of Dogecoin tells a story of "not falling."
On the 15-minute chart, the price started from the 0.08502 level, with one bullish candle after another pushing it up to 0.08767. It then did not reverse downward but instead consolidated around 0.0867. Trading volume expanded to 4.31 million coins during the rise and shrank during the pullback—selling pressure did not follow, which is why the consolidation held.
There are several details on the chart worth noting. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages converge around 0.0868, with the price running just above the moving average band, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears here. The super trend line is pressing down at 0.08728; in the morning, the price touched 0.08718, just one step away from a bullish signal. On the order book, there is a buy order of 280,000 coins at the best bid, while the best ask only has 28,000 coins, showing strong support below.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the pattern is clearer. There was a 7.81% pullback in the past 7 days, but the 30-day period still shows a 2.43% gain, and the 90-day gain is 16.39%. This means the recent weekly pullback occurred within a quarterly uptrend structure, with the low around 0.085 raised higher than previous bottoms.
The next key point is straightforward: if $DOGE breaks above 0.08728 with volume, the super trend will turn green, and the upward channel will connect; conversely, if it breaks below the moving average convergence zone at 0.0868, it will retreat to around 0.0850 to rebuild support. The consolidation won’t last long; the direction will be decided within the next one or two candles.$FIL has been pumping again these past couple of days for some unknown reason. $FIL, this trash, stop pretending to be the "king of decentralized storage."
Back in 2020 when the mainnet launched, you loudly proclaimed you would "disrupt AWS and Google Cloud," but six years later, you look more like an old player propped up by early ICO fundraising and miner staking — all talk of grand narratives, but your pockets only hold a bunch of idle capacity and continuously leaking tokens.
Let's first look at your so-called "decentralized storage" trick. Sounds cool, right? Storage providers lock FIL as collateral and use complex proofs to guarantee data availability. But in reality? The actual paid storage usage is laughably tiny compared to your total capacity, and enterprise-level demand remains stuck at the PPT and "about to launch" stage.
Then there's your tokenomics. Circulating supply is just over 8 million, total supply nearly 2 billion. Over the years, Protocol Labs and the foundation have been continuously flooding the market with tokens through a six-year linear unlock. The price has crashed from over $200 in 2021 to just over $1 now, a drop of nearly 99.5%. This is not a "scarce asset," it's chronic bleeding. Fortunately, the unlock ending in mid-October will cut issuance by about 70%, which sounds like good news, right? But this rebound looks more like the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario — history shows your "supply-demand balance" has always been just talk.
Pump it and then short it, you trash token! Bitcoin has hit $83,880 three times in a row this morning, clearly trying hard to break through the $84,000 barrier!
$BTC's current price has bounced back to around $83,750, with each pullback low higher than the last.
In my logic, there are only two outcomes when a resistance level is repeatedly tested: either a strong breakout above 84,000 to squeeze shorts completely, or a failure to break through leading to a deep retracement. I definitely won't chase the price higher during the Asian session; I'll set my stop loss and wait for a clear direction! #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
On October 11, U.S. President Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure, with an "energy ceasefire" taking effect immediately. Trump wrote: "The energy ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war has been established. Both sides have agreed. Do not violate it." However, he did not specify the scope, duration, monitoring mechanisms, or define the specific protected facilities—whether the agreement covers power plants, transmission networks, gas facilities, oil depots, pipelines, and refineries, the White House did not clarify.
Ukraine's response showed a clear gap from Trump's announcement. Zelensky told U.S. media Axios that Trump's statement "was news to me," implying Kyiv was not aware of a formal agreement beforehand. He later stated on social media that Ukraine "supports a practical, reliable ceasefire and a way to end the war," is willing not to strike Russian energy facilities, "and expects Russia to take the same action." Zelensky also said the Ukrainian armed forces have received relevant orders but are awaiting details of U.S.-Russia dialogue.
The Kremlin had not officially confirmed the existence of the agreement hours after Trump's post. Russian State Duma Energy Committee Deputy Chairman Anansky said he was unaware of such an agreement and questioned whether Trump's announcement was merely a "verbal intervention" to suppress global oil prices. According to the Kyiv Independent, several U.S. and Ukrainian officials revealed that Russia privately demanded the U.S. ease sanctions as a condition for agreeing to the energy ceasefire and tried to link this arrangement to a Black Sea ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Peskov publicly stated on October 8 that Russia considers talks on a "sectoral ceasefire" meaningless. A European diplomat commented that if Russia obtains frozen asset releases, "those funds will almost certainly be used to escalate the conflict; no one really believes they are seriously seeking to comply with a ceasefire."
Trump's announcement came amid heightened tensions in U.S.-Ukraine relations over diesel issues. Trump had repeatedly urged Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries, saying these attacks disrupted global diesel supplies and raised U.S. fuel prices. On October 9, U.S. and Ukrainian representatives held nearly eight hours of talks in Miami, with U.S. envoy Whitaker and Trump's son-in-law Kushner warning that if Ukraine did not stop attacking Russian refineries, the U.S. might cut off intelligence sharing. On the same day, Trump announced an agreement with Putin on Russia supplying diesel to the U.S. and global markets. A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times after Trump's "energy ceasefire" announcement that Ukraine would not comply with U.S. demands and canceled the second round of talks scheduled for the next day.
This was not Trump's first such announcement. U.S. media Axios reported that Trump also declared an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in September this year, but neither side confirmed a formal agreement, and attacks on energy infrastructure continued. After this announcement, Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities continued. Zelensky said in a video speech that Russian forces attacked a combined heat and power plant in Kharkiv. Kyiv Mayor Klitschko said the capital's power and water systems remained under pressure from Russian attacks.
In the market, buoyed by expectations of an energy ceasefire, Brent crude futures opened Monday down 1.31% at $103.35 per barrel, and WTI crude fell 1.42% to $90.55 per barrel. Traders are assessing the impact on the restoration of Russian energy supplies if the agreement is truly implemented, but the lack of agreement terms and Russia's silence make this expectation highly uncertain.$ADA ADA: Why is the academic chain always "half a beat slow"?
Because Cardano follows peer review, Haskell, and formal verification, its development pace is like a university, not a startup. In a bull market, this is called "no story," and in a bear market, it's called "no bombshell."
Today ETH is 2513, SOL 110, ADA 0.25; its market cap ranks high but the price feels like a clone. The market labels it as a "stable old chain," not a "high beta growth."
But ADA has new things in 2026: RWA experiments, Africa/Latin America payment partnerships, governance treasury, L2-type scaling (Mithril/sidechains). It's just that these news are "not sexy," and Twitter doesn't like to share them.
In trading, ADA suits a "low estimate grid":
Buy at 0.23
Sell at 0.27
Watch the trend again above 0.30
Don't use SOL's strategy for ADA, you'll find it lazy; don't use BTC's faith for ADA, you'll miss the new chain's resilience. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to build positions, why does BTC still face pressure? $ADA $S 昨晚睡前按纪律把大头都止盈了，现在只剩一点底仓，心态极度舒适。
看1小时图，这个币前面爆量拉升，从0.036一路干到了0.069，涨势极其凶猛。现在高位回踩到了0.060附近震荡。目前MA5在0.060，MA10在0.061，MA20在0.056，均线系统虽然还没彻底走坏，但明显出现了高位滞涨的迹象。
对于剩下来的这点底仓，我的计划极其简单粗暴：就看均线支撑。 如果短期内有效跌穿这几根短期均线，说明上升动能已经彻底衰竭，我就直接一键全平，把最后的利润也落袋，绝不恋战。
前面最肥的一段肉已经稳稳吃到了嘴里，剩下的鱼尾刺多，没必要为了最后那一小口去冒巨大的风险。交易拼的不是单笔赚多猛，而是谁活得更久。到了高位懂得收网，比死拿到底更重要#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Latest news to help you organize the chaotic updates. There are two major events in AI and data. Grass has shifted from shared bandwidth to AI real-time search, with $GRASS directly breaking above $0.89, rising over 24.5% in 24 hours. Commentary: DePIN projects have found a new story in AI, and the market is willing to give a wave of sentiment, but the real impact depends on actual usage volume. The Sui Foundation invested $30 million in DATA Network to bring the AI training data protocol into the Sui ecosystem. Commentary: Public chains are now competing in the AI data track, and $SUI’s ecosystem puzzle has been further completed. The AI cognition gap is also worth discussing. Karpathy said about 6 billion people worldwide have hardly touched large models, and only a few thousand have truly accessed top-tier internal models. Commentary: The steeper this funnel, the greater the early information and resource gap; product makers shouldn’t assume users all understand AI. Crypto market and whale moves. A whale sold 410.14 $BTC to swap for 14,341 $ETH, with ETH valued at $36.14 million. Commentary: Large funds moving from $BTC to $ETH doesn’t necessarily mean bearishness, more like rebalancing to find flexibility. Another newly created address made over $1 million in one day going long on $STRK, then immediately went long on $W, with a nominal market value of $28.88 million. Commentary: You can follow the trades, but don’t overlook that it’s a newly created address,